Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/28/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
953 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FORECAST AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE
NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
641 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE
NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST WED APR 27 2016
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
A LINE OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER MOVING ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING THESE SHOWERS/TS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...REMAINING MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THU
AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER...THEN
BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW AZ. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT WILL BE TO BRING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF SE CA...WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. GIVEN
THESE UPDATED FORECASTS AND CURRENT SHORT-TERM TRENDS...INHERITED
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOUT 2-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TOP OUT
RIGHT NEAR FORECAST VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SPORTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
TOWARD US TONIGHT RATHER QUICKLY AND MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY
TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY IMPACT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT NOR CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL SKIRT OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA TO WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SREF OUTPUT
INDICATE DECENT PROBABILITY /30-50 PERCENT/ FOR MODEST INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG/ AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...RECENT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WEREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN...5-10 DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT THAT SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS BY ITSELF.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RECOVERY DAY AS THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT YET ANOTHER ONE IS ON ITS HEELS AND WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS SHIFTS WERE NOTING VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS
THAT APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED NOW AS THE GEFS/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE
PRETTY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION. JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL NOT A VERY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.
BEYOND THERE IS AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL IMPART A WARMING TREND ON OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMBING A BIT MORE
AFTER THAT. STILL NOT SEEING PHOENIX OR YUMA/S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECASTS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL... PRIMARY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT 04Z...WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PROBABLY WILL SEE A LATE SHIFT TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPHX BUT BY 11Z WINDS SHOULD BE
SELY. WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY AROUND NOON THURSDAY. NO
MAJOR ISSUES WITH CLOUDS...JUST SCT MID AND HIGH DECKS TONIGHT WITH
SOME CU AROUND 6K DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...TOO LATE TO BE
MENTIONING IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE...EVENING SHIFT CAN SEE IF ANY
MENTION OF WX IS NEEDED LATER IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... BY
FAR THE BIGGEST AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE WIND...ESPECIALLY AT
KIPL...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT
AHEAD OF VIGOROUS PACIFIC UPPER LOW. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30KT PAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT KIPL THEN TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG
THE GUSTS ARE...BLOWING DUST WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AND WE
MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE TAF FOR VISIBILITIES AOB 6SM. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LLWS...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS DROPPING OFF
BY MIDNIGHT WITH 35-40K WEST WINDS NEAR 2K FEET AND THIS WOULD LEAD
TO WIND SHEAR ISSUES. FEEL WINDS WILL STAY STRONGER AND GUSTY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AND THUS LLWS IS NOT IN THE TAF. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS. LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KBLH WITH MOSTLY SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CLOUDS NOT AN ISSUE WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL
DECKS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT BKN DECKS NEAR 10K FEET AT KBLH LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE DISTRICT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN FALLING TO COOLER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MARKEDLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PASSING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AS COMPARED TO
NORMAL WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND A 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
THREAT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/INIGUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS....ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY TOUCHED OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED OVER RURAL AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT ABOUT 2:15 PM
THIS AFTERNOON A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED MARBLE SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY TOWN OF SAN ARDO. THEN...AT ABOUT 2:25 PM
A THUNDERSTORM SPAWNED A WATERSPOUT ON LAKE BERRYESSA IN EASTERN
NAPA COUNTY. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDED OR MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW
ON FRIDAY AND THEN DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
OUR COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HILLS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THESE POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL EASE
IN THE HILLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY OFFSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MEAN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY...BOTH INLAND AND LOCALLY NEAR THE
COAST.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:31 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER THE SOCAL DESERTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY-TIME WARMING. PLENTY OF MIXING CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSISTING POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING ARE NOT
LIKELY TO TAPER OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY. VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE PASSING STORM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
931 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY...
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.
TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THURSDAY...
BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.
RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.
HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.
ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.
THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.
KCOS...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.
MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KPUB
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KALS
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
829 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND URBAN CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO
BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH COLORADO LYING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE
PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND THE PHASE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE TRICKY THINGS TO
FORECAST. MORNING LOWS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 33 DEGREES...CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES IN THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR. (.01-.05 INCH/HR) THESE LIGHT INTENSITIES
SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. THAT BEING SAID...THE
PALMER RIDGE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER ELEVATION THAN DENVER. ONCE THE RAIN OR
SNOW BEGINS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING...IT SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE
APPROACHING STORM STRENGTHENS.
SINCE THE EVENING MODELS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
LOWER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A MID-LEVEL CAP
BENEATH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED SHOWER
FORMATION AND SUPPRESSED UPDRAFTS TODAY. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FCST WORKED OUT. THE GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS ALSO MATERIALIZED
ON THE PLAINS AND ON THE HIGH MTN RIDGES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WINDING UP
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/LOWER GREAT BASIN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD UP INTO COLORADO AND BY LATE TONIGHT
COULD SEE SNOWFALL ON THE INCREASE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS MOVING MOISTURE
WESTWARD UP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING
IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS FAR NORTH AS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA. VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS SAME ELY FLOW IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT
THRU MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG HERE WHERE
SOME VSBYS IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO BELOW A MILE AROUND
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING IN...SHOW SEE SNOWFALL
COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. PRECIP MAY START OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS BUT WITH TIME CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN
CHARACTER. ON THE PLAINS...NO PRECIP TO START OUT THE DAY AND BY
MID-MORNING THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SWLY
TRANSPORT WINDS. WILL SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE
PRECIP IN AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MAY EVEN SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR
TWO ON THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW PROGGED TO BE
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
PRETTY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
UPCOMING STORM. THE TRACK IS NOT NECESSARILY PERFECT FOR A MAJOR
STORM...A BIT TOO FAR NORTH...BUT ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LONG ENOUGH
TIME TO GENERATE DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. SURFACE EVOLUTION IS ALSO DECENT...PERHAPS NOT PERFECT...WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING A BIT LESS UPSLOPE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE OTHER BIG CONCERN...LIKELY THE
MOST IMPORTANT...IS THE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE AIRMASS.
LOTS OF DISCREPANCIES BETWIXT THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM
SUGGESTING MORE SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILST THE GFS IS QUITE
A BIT WARMER. LASTLY...THE GFS HAS ABOUT 3-4 TIMES THE QPF ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CWA COMPARED TO THE OTHER SIMULATIONS SO PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER NUMBERS ARE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT 0.5 TO 1.0
INCH OF WATER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR
THE FOOTHILLS...SOUTH PARK AND MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LATER ON DOWN THE LINE GENERAL TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
WITH PRECIPITATION NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...WILL BE ADDING SHOWERS TO THE TAFS AS
EARLY AS 08Z OR 09Z. WILL KEEP THE MENITON OF FOG AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ033>037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THOUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NRN PA AND NRN NJ. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF PHILA.
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TIER F THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS,
POPS/WX WERE UPDATED TO BETTER TIME THE CONVECTION. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE HRRR CLOSELY AS IT HAD CAPTURED THE FASTER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 400-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE 45-55
KT ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK BEING SLIGHTLY REMOVED
NORTH (I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD) OF WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS. NONETHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 WAS
ISSUED AT 2 PM AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. NOT
MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR THINKING WITH REGARDS TO STORM MODE, COVERAGE
AND TIMING. THE MAIN THREAT IS STILL LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WITH
THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
SRN VA AND NC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST PASSAGES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH THIS HIGH
ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ DURING THE MORNING
BUT STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS A RESULT OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE PA/S NJ/DELMARVA REMAINING
VEERED OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE 12Z NAM, INDICATE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MU50S IN THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ TO LM60S IN E PA AND IN C/NW NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT
THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CYCLONIC FLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF ENERGY FORECAST TO
EVOLVE AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES,
MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING
IT, WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BACK INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT FIRST, HOWEVER A LEAD IMPULSE
WILL DRIVE WAA AND OVERRUNNING INTO OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND ALSO
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GIVEN POTENTIALLY MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR
SHOWERS IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, WE
ARE ANTICIPATING THURSDAY TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW FEATURE TO OUR SOUTH OVERALL
SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO START FRIDAY. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN
INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR
SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW WELL
TO OUR WEST, AS IT MAY OPEN UP INTO THE EAST, DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
FASTER EVOLUTION TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION
CHCS SOONER. THE FLOW OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE BLOCKY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW, THEREFORE
WE FAVORED WPC GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE LOW ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT, A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED REGIME DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SCT SHRA AND TSRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THRU THE
AREA THIS AFTN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
TERMINALS.
FROPA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA AND BE MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT FROM W-SW TO N LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN NELY AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE STRATUS MAY MOVE INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDED MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS FOR LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVING TO VFR EVERYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. NELY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU 9 PM. MAIN
THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DE BAY THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN WITH
W-SWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT. ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL ALL SEE
GRADIENT WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT INTO OUR NRN COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THRU
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NE
BEHIND IT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT AS
A BRIEF NELY SURGE COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 4-7 FT.
NELY WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT BY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WINDS OVERALL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS SHOULD BUILD
TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 WAS ISSUED AT 2 PM AND INCLUDES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR
THINKING WITH REGARDS TO STORM MODE, COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE MAIN
THREAT IS STILL LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NY-
PA, ARCING E-SEWD INTO THE NRN NJ. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR BGM. LOOKING ALOFT, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MIDWEST MCS IS MOVING INTO E PA MID MORNING.
WEAKENING TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED IN THE IR SATELLITE/ MOSAIC RADAR LOOP AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU
THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ OVER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE,
VIRTUALLY REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST THRU
MIDDAY (THOUGH ISO SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN A FEW LOCATIONS AREAS).
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANT MCS WILL SWEEP THRU THE
AREA WHICH WILL DELAY STRONG SOLAR HEATING BY 2 OR 3 HOURS. MADE
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS TODAY, TRYING TO SHOW A
TIGHT N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SINCE THIS
IS WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE IN MAKING
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS BUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FROM PHILA SOUTHWARD IF WE CAN SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS, HOURLY
POPS/WX WERE UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER TIME THE
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SWD THRU THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM 4KM,
RAP AND HRRR SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 600-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM SE PA-C NJ AND POINTS SWD BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST BULK SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LARGER-SCALE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS
IT ONCE DID IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE DEEPEST LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
SLIGHTLY REMOVED NORTH (ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA)
FROM WHERE THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA). NONETHELESS,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST SPC D1
FORECAST EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 2-5
PM IN NE PA/NW NJ, 4-7 PM IN SE PA AND S NJ, 5-9 PM IN THE
DELMARVA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA
METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 800 PM AND IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ITS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWEST PASSAGES
RIDGES DOWN TOWARD US. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THAT
PERSIST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE IN THE CO FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TIED TO THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINS CUTS OFF. THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND RIDE THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ALONG AND ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT AND PRECIP ADVANCES WITH DRIER AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE FROM GUIDANCE THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET COULD
LEAD TO A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE WHEN THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES IN. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.
THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SHOWERS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS. THE WIND ARE STILL RATHER
LIGHT SO FAR MORNING FROM PHL NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR, SW WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-25 KT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
A CONTINUATION OF THE GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WIND. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES, AND
PERHAPS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH KABE, KRDG AND KTTN
BETWEEN ABOUT 2200 AND 2300Z BRINGING AND END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPNE
AND KPHL AROUND 0000Z, AND AT KILG, KACY AND KMIV ABOUT 0100Z. THE
WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA, WITH VFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY IN EFFECT FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY
AND IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NY-
PA, ARCING E-SEWD INTO THE NRN NJ. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR BGM. LOOKING ALOFT, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MIDWEST MCS IS MOVING INTO E PA MID MORNING.
WEAKENING TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED IN THE IR SATELLITE/ MOSAIC RADAR LOOP AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU
THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ OVER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE,
VIRTUALLY REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST THRU
MIDDAY (THOUGH ISO SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN A FEW LOCATIONS AREAS).
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANT MCS WILL SWEEP THRU THE
AREA WHICH WILL DELAY STRONG SOLAR HEATING BY 2 OR 3 HOURS. MADE
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS TODAY, TRYING TO SHOW A
TIGHT N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SINCE THIS
IS WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE IN MAKING
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS BUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FROM PHILA SOUTHWARD IF WE CAN SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS, HOURLY
POPS/WX WERE UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER TIME THE
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SWD THRU THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM 4KM,
RAP AND HRRR SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 600-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM SE PA-C NJ AND POINTS SWD BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST BULK SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LARGER-SCALE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS
IT ONCE DID IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE DEEPEST LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
SLIGHTLY REMOVED NORTH (ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA)
FROM WHERE THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA). NONETHELESS,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST SPC D1
FORECAST EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 2-5
PM IN NE PA/NW NJ, 4-7 PM IN SE PA AND S NJ, 5-9 PM IN THE
DELMARVA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA
METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 800 PM AND IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ITS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWEST PASSAGES
RIDGES DOWN TOWARD US. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THAT
PERSIST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE IN THE CO FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TIED TO THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINS CUTS OFF. THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND RIDE THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ALONG AND ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT AND PRECIP ADVANCES WITH DRIER AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE FROM GUIDANCE THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET COULD
LEAD TO A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE WHEN THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES IN. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.
THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SHOWERS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS. THE WIND ARE STILL RATHER
LIGHT SO FAR MORNING FROM PHL NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR, SW WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-25 KT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
A CONTINUATION OF THE GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WIND. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES, AND
PERHAPS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH KABE, KRDG AND KTTN
BETWEEN ABOUT 2200 AND 2300Z BRINGING AND END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPNE
AND KPHL AROUND 0000Z, AND AT KILG, KACY AND KMIV ABOUT 0100Z. THE
WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA, WITH VFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY IN EFFECT FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY
AND IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POP UP ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS EVENING. WHILE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE,
THE HRRR STILL INSISTS MORE WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN
PLACE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE EAST WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT
MOST LOCATIONS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW, IT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN, POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KAPF
WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE FLIP THE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE
SEA/GULF BREEZES. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE EAST, AND WILL HAMPER
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY, TO AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY, IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE REDUCTION OF THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE WIND
LOOKS TO PICK UP AGAIN SOME BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND ALSO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 73 87 74 88 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 69 86 71 87 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...
TODAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
MID/UPR LVL S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE
ATLC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF .91 INCHES WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT TO -13 DEGS C AT H5. SOME WARMING OF THE
MID LVLS IS FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS H5 TEMPS WARM TO -10 C. LIGHT SE
FLOW THIS MORNING AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BACK SOME TO THE ESE/E
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WITH THE
PREVAILING LOW LVL FLOW. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUID TODAY INDICATES
CONVECTION AGAIN WEST OF THE E CENTRAL FL FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE LOW SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND WELL INTERIOR
SECTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY FCSTS FROM THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF AND ALSO 04Z HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COVERAGE. 00Z NAM AGAIN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH SOME HEAVIER
QPF NEAR ORLANDO IN THE AFTN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED WITH A NE SWELL AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
COASTAL TO MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH ANY
EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WED-THU...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHILE AXIS OF
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL THE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET (850MB) LAYER AND A DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 10000 FEET (700MB). LIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT
WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND PUSH
INLAND EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS SHALLOW/WEAK...SO ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LATE IN THE DAY AND OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. GUIDANCE
CAME IN WITH POP LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WOULD BE LOWER THAN
CURRENT POP. RATHER THAN HAVE SUCH LOW POP BOUNCE AROUND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT POP OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.
FRI-SUN...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. AMD GULF COAST. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND EASTERLY
WINDS. DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND
LOW IN THE MID 60S.
MON...TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PUSHES THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST FAR ENOUGH FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MID 80S AND LOW IN THE LOW AND MID 60S.
TUE...SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MORE...BUT LIMITED...MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND
VORTICITY TO GO WITH SOME AFTERNOON STORMS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS. HIGHS MID 80S...LOWS MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FOR SRN TERMINALS AND THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE VCSH STUART TERMINAL
15Z-18Z WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. OTHER TERMINALS WILL KEEP DRY. ANY
LATE DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF KMCO-KSFB CORRIDOR.
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER AT KLEE-KISM HAVE
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF FCST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE TO 4
FT OFFSHORE IN A NE SWELL.
TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE E/SE WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-4 FEET.
WED-SAT...AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS EITHER
OVER AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXCEPT FOR OFFSHORE
WINDS FRI AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH TRACKS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE AND 3 FEET AND LESS NEARSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS TO 40-45 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 15 MPH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THOUGH
ERC VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP WITH DRY WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 65 84 65 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 86 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 0
MLB 82 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 0
VRB 83 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 0
LEE 86 68 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 85 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 85 68 86 68 / 10 10 20 10
FPR 82 64 84 63 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHEN IT COMES TO CHICAGO`S WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPRING...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE. OR...IF FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW MINUTES CAN MAKE. A
PNEUMONIA FRONT CAME BLASTING IN OFF THE LAKE A COUPLE HOURS AGO
WITH TEMP DROPS OF 20 DEGREES IN 15 MINUTES AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
30 DEGREES IN AN HOUR. LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE
LAKE THE TEMP DROPS WILL BE LESS DRAMATIC AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE BANK OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF WI
AND POINTS NORTH. WHILE IT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT
BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY SEEPING SOUTHWARD AND ANTICIPATE IT TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY
INCH UPWARD TODAY...THINKING THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY HOLD
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
NEAR THE LAKE. MOST OF THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TODAY AND AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND A STIFF WIND OFF THE LAKE.
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WEDNESDAY AND POWERFUL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. A STEADY
FEED OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE FAIRLY BRISK EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA...THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MAJORITY OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...SO WHILE WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80...THE CHANCES OF THUNDER
LOOK PRETTY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SAME SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN AND FILL. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND PROBABLY MOST IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY AS WELL BEFORE THE NEXT
BIG SHORTWAVE/CLOSED EMERGES TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HEADS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRIED TO SLOW
POPS A BIT FROM BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SUSPECT FURTHER
SLOWING IN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD BE NEEDED AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TEND TO SLOW THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD PROGRESS AT
THIS DISTANCES. ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATER IN
THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL.
NOW THAT WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST WIND REGIME TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE EASTERLY WINDS AND FREQUENT BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO WHERE
WILL THAT BE THE CASE MORESO THAN NEAR THE LAKE WHERE TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WONT REACH 50 DEGREES AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS CENTER AROUND MVFR CEILINGS AND SPECIFIC END
TIME...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED EAST WINDS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO RAIN
POTENTIAL AND TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO RISE PER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS OF 17Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT
AT THE LAKEFRONT WHERE IFR WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. REMNANTS OF
THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS
TO WHETHER THE MVFR CIGS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT THEN RETURNING TO MVFR
IN THE MORNING FOR A TIME. DEWPOINTS DO NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUED
EAST WINDS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STATUS QUO OF AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS BEING AROUND.
THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ELEVATED
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT THUNDER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN HOLDS OF ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
COMPROMISE TIMING AROUND 20-21Z IN THE 30 HR ORD TAF.
KMD
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
HEADLINES...GUSTS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE SO CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING EARLY. LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS IS. THE LATEST WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS THE SCY FOR THE IL
WATERS NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. ALSO CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE SCY FOR
POINTS BETWEEN CALUMET HARBOR AND GARY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND EITHER OF THOSE SCY/S JUST YET.
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST. ITS
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PATH
OF THE LOW...BUT THE MAIN MODELS BRING IT INTO NORTHERN IL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1047 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.
Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip. However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature. The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.
Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again. Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system. The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression. Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers and
thunderstorms south of I-72 this afternoon and also increase cloud
cover across CWA. MCS over southern IA and northern MO is
spreading clouds eastward toward I-57 late this morning, while
leading edge of showers and thunderstorms moving into west central
IL just west of CWA. HRRR model seems 1-2 hours too slow with this
convection spreading ESE across areas south of I-74 this
afternoon and following the quicker SPC high res model solution.
SPC has slight risk of severe storms over much of Clay and sw
Jasper counties by late afternoon. Frontal boundary is pressing
southward toward I-72 late this morning and will push south of
I-70 late this afternoon. Temps currently range from mid 60s from
Macomb to Lacon north to the mid 70s from I-72 south. Highs today
to range from the upper 60s to near 70F from Galesburg and Lacon
north to the upper 70s and lower 80s from I-72 south.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
109 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
903 PM CDT
HAVE CLEARED SOME OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
MENDOTA TO HIGHLAND PARK LINE AS OF 9 PM CDT.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NORTHWEST LASALLE CO TO NORTHEAST COOK CO. SPC RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN REGION OF
1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WHILE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BECOMING ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE/SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN REMAINING PORTIONS OF 103 UNTIL EXPIRATION.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST
OB/RADAR TRENDS TO TIGHTEN UP THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GRADIENT. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINTS ACCOUNT POSITION OF
THE BOUNDARY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON UNFOLDED ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS
TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO
HELPED TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD SHOWN A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WISC DOWN TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STRATUS WHICH COULD FURTHER
AGITATE THE MID-LEVELS AFT 21Z. DCAPE THIS HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE AS
A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR ARRIVAL IN THE MID-LVLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA/FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN IL AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
IOWA...ADDS TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT ZONE AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS INITIALIZATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN
ILLINOIS...THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND QUICKLY ADVANCE AND GROW BY 22-23Z.
ONCE CONVECTION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME INCREASED HELICITY AS THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THAT AN ISOLATED ROTATING
UPDRAFT COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE INCREASED DCAPE OF NEARLY 1000J/KG AND THE
STEADILY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL.
BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE VECTORS ALL
POINTING TOWARDS A SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND 30-40KTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK END TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CONCERNS OVER THE AREA BY
1-2Z. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THIS FEATURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS MID
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
THEN FOR TUE BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE 8 TO 11 DEG C...WHICH COUPLED WITH AN EXPECTED
STRATUS LAYER ARRIVING COULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
MILD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND COULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TUE AFTN.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL WET PERIOD IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION IN A WEAKENING STATE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW 50S INLAND AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...IN THE 40S ON THE LAKE FRONT...AND IN TO 60S FAR SOUTH. WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE.
A SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND AS
A RESULT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION IS ACHIEVED.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING SOUTH. YOU CAN SEE THE FRONT
ON RADAR PUSHING SOUTHWEST. WINDS BECOME NE LESS THAN 10 KT
BEHIND IT INITIALLY BUT EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING. LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.
LUCKILY THE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE LAKE ARE REMAINING OVER THE
LAKE AND NOT SPREADING TOO FAR ONSHORE. EXPECTING AN INITIAL WIND
SHIFT TO NE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...AND THEN THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD IN A FEW HOURS
LATER. GYY AND RFD ARE THE EXCEPTION. THINKING THE LAKE STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER GYY WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO N OR NNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO THINKING THE STRATUS AND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT RFD. I HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
500 FT CIGS INITIALLY. COULD SEE EVEN LOWER CIGS AS MANY SITES IN
WI ARE BELOW 500 FT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW CIGS WILL BEHAVE TODAY. LEANING TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK WITH CIGS RISING TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CIGS RISE TO VFR THIS AFTN OR EVENING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THICK CLOUD COVER AND CIG TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WE MAY BE VFR.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
255 PM CDT
A QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPAWN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT 30 TO SOME 35
KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE ABATING
LATE.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP LAKE-WIDE ON TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TONIGHTS LOW. ONCE THIS OCCURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LAKE. THE FIRST ONE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME 25 TO 30 KT
FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE WAVES AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR SHORES.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Boundary is finally moving through the CWA this evening. Will need
to update pop/wx grids to account for current situation and
trends. Based on radar, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move through the CWA, mainly east of I-55. Boundary is
hard to see in the observations but it can be seen on radar just
passing the NWS office and is just east of I-55. This movement
will continue through the night, which means the showers could as
well. Other updates will be needed to account for the scattered
clouds in the west behind the boundary. Update forthcoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.
With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.
Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sct to
bkn clouds at around 5-6kft will continue over the area and then
become all scattered in a few hours at all sites. However,
additional moisture will increase along the boundary that is
slowly moving through the area. By morning this will bring broken
cigs around 4kft at all sites. These broken cigs will continue
over the area through remainder of the forecast period. With the
frond just south of sites, any pcpn along the front should remain
south of the TAF sites as well. Winds will be tricky as the front
will be fairly stationary near I-72, so PIA/BMI and then CMI will
see winds become more northeast after FROPA. SPI and DEC should
see variable winds through most of the period, but then become
more southwest for the afternoon and evening periods.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK...WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL WET
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AT A STEADY 10-20MPH AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BACK INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA. WITH WELL MIXED AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH SO FAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH 07Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING
CONVECTION WHILE SIFTING THROUGH THE MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUES TO
CARRY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE /HRRR-WRF-4KM NAM/ FOR TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION OF GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS W/SW ACROSS NW INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FROM THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
FORCING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET ALREADY DEPARTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AT BEST WITH LITTLE TO
FIRE OFF OF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE PRESENCE OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WELL AT ALL...CONSISTENTLY TRYING TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS VERY CLEARLY WITH A
BORDERLINE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED BY DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS A RESULT...EVEN SHOWERS HAVE
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO THE REGION SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WHILE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES...HAVE A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING ANY
HIGHER THAN A 20 POP WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING. THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING REALLY IS THE ONLY FEATURE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE THROUGH MIDDAY.
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE SETUP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. A WAVE ALOFT
THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SWING INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ADD SOME
FORCING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH BULK OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL CAPTURING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. LACK OF MORE
APPRECIABLE BL SHEAR AND UNIMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SUPPORT
MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE TO STORMS WITH PULSING INTENSITY. COULD
SEE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING THE WARMER START THIS MORNING WHICH MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE MISSED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUN AND QUICK HEATING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...TRENDED HIGH TEMPS TOWARDS
HRRR/4KM NAM WHICH PLACE MOST AREAS AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS. EXPECT MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPS AS LOCATION OF THE
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHARP GRADIENTS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES.
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 00Z THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AIDED
BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS E/NE FLOW BRINGS DRIER
AIR BACK SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR
IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROMPT THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS IN THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO COALESCE INTO A LINE OR
LINES OF WEAKER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT
PRESSES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
REMNANTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND MAY EVEN SEE
SOME RESTRENGTHENING OF STORMS LATE DAY IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEST CHANCE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NICE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH RAIN AND STORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING SUPPORTS CARRYING BEST CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...WITH THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. AN
OVERALL MODEL BLEND CAPTURED THIS THINKING WELL. GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. THE RESULT OF
THIS SETUP WILL BE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN IN BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. STUCK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CUT
BACK SUPERBLEND/S POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THUS AVOIDS POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOPPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
LOOKS LIKE MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP AFTER ALL...PER LATEST
CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW TO MEDIUM AT BEST THOUGH. HAVE REMOVED MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING FROM THE TAFS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET AT LAF PER
RADAR TRENDS. THE ONCE WIDESPREAD HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE NOW
EVEN HINTING AT SMALL COVERAGE AT BEST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK...WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL WET
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AT A STEADY 10-20MPH AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BACK INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA. WITH WELL MIXED AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH SO FAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH 07Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING
CONVECTION WHILE SIFTING THROUGH THE MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUES TO
CARRY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE /HRRR-WRF-4KM NAM/ FOR TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION OF GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS W/SW ACROSS NW INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FROM THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
FORCING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET ALREADY DEPARTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AT BEST WITH LITTLE TO
FIRE OFF OF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE PRESENCE OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WELL AT ALL...CONSISTENTLY TRYING TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS VERY CLEARLY WITH A
BORDERLINE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED BY DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS A RESULT...EVEN SHOWERS HAVE
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO THE REGION SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WHILE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES...HAVE A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING ANY
HIGHER THAN A 20 POP WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING. THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING REALLY IS THE ONLY FEATURE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE THROUGH MIDDAY.
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE SETUP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. A WAVE ALOFT
THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SWING INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ADD SOME
FORCING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH BULK OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL CAPTURING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. LACK OF MORE
APPRECIABLE BL SHEAR AND UNIMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SUPPORT
MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE TO STORMS WITH PULSING INTENSITY. COULD
SEE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPS...CONSIDERING THE WARMER START THIS MORNING WHICH MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE MISSED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUN AND QUICK HEATING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...TRENDED HIGH TEMPS TOWARDS
HRRR/4KM NAM WHICH PLACE MOST AREAS AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS. EXPECT MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPS AS LOCATION OF THE
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHARP GRADIENTS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES.
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 00Z THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AIDED
BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS E/NE FLOW BRINGS DRIER
AIR BACK SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR
IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROMPT THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS IN THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO COALESCE INTO A LINE OR
LINES OF WEAKER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT
PRESSES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
REMNANTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND MAY EVEN SEE
SOME RESTRENGTHENING OF STORMS LATE DAY IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEST CHANCE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NICE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH RAIN AND STORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING SUPPORTS CARRYING BEST CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...WITH THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. AN
OVERALL MODEL BLEND CAPTURED THIS THINKING WELL. GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. THE RESULT OF
THIS SETUP WILL BE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN IN BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. STUCK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CUT
BACK SUPERBLEND/S POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THUS AVOIDS POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOPPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET AT LAF PER
RADAR TRENDS. THE ONCE WIDESPREAD HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE NOW
EVEN HINTING AT SMALL COVERAGE AT BEST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
UPDATE...
CURRENT TRENDS MATCH FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES. RAIN HAS STAYED OUT
OF CENTRAL INDIANA SO FAR...AND IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO START
ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL TUE 03Z. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
IS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT COULD FILTER INTO THE AREA
AT THAT POINT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 70S AND ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...STAYING WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...REACHING
NORTHERN INDIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA
FAIL TO SHOW ANY DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE COLUMN. FARTHER
ALOFT...MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN A OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OVERNIGHT LOOKS WEAK...AS 850 WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 30
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING INTO THE FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE
FOR POPS TONIGHT IS LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP...MAINLY LATE
ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRY TO TREND
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE...COLLABORATION WILLING.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z...STILL LINGERING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGING RIDING SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST
FORCING FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVER 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH. THUS WILL TREND
POPS HIGH ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS BEST. GIVEN THE MIX OF SUN IN
THE MORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAVMOS.
A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING
ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HEATING IS LOST. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
FORCING LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS LINGER WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST A DEEPER LOW WITHIN THE LOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA. A
NEGATIVELY TILED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THAT TIME WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
OVER 4.5 G/KG. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND HIGHS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. THE RESULT OF
THIS SETUP WILL BE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN IN BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. STUCK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CUT
BACK SUPERBLEND/S POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THUS AVOIDS POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOPPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET AT LAF PER
RADAR TRENDS. THE ONCE WIDESPREAD HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE NOW
EVEN HINTING AT SMALL COVERAGE AT BEST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
235 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DRAW IN WARMER AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FORM
THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS
TODAY... BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
FOCUS OF SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND PUSH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS WELL...NOW INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S WITH 58 TO 62 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OFF TO THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND COLD FRONT BACK IN EASTERN IOWA.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. EXACTLY HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES FROM
THERE REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS HI RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
FASTEST WITH INITIAL CELLS CONGEALING INTO LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE WHICH ARRIVES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAP/NMM MORE FOCUS ON THE WARM FRONT AND KEEP
ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED AND FURTHER NORTH. NAM/NAM 4KM SHOW SOME
SIMILARITY TO HRRR BUT SLOWER AND LESS ROBUST. GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS AROUND TO HELP USE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR
PROFILES DO INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. MID LEVEL JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE CONVECTION WITH
SOME HINTS OF A SMALL EML THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEING LOST.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS AND WENT WITH SOME
ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS.
PRECIP MAY LINGER LONGEST IN THE SE BUT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY
THIS POINT. TRIED TO LIMIT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WITH
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-24 POSSIBLY NOT SEEING MUCH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FAR S/SE AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GREATER SEVERE
THREAT SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. COOL DAY IN
STORE ALONG THE LAKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S VS MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
TWO PRIMARY CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS PAIR OF
DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY
CLOSING OFF OVER NEVADA. AS THIS PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
WED...TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/FGEN WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. GOOD CROSS-ISOBAR FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
300K SURFACE WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8 G/KG. PW VALUES ALSO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THETA-E SURGE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUM
SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THURS. ADDED A BIT MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL TO POP
FORECAST...SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL AND INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL WED
NIGHT BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE. DID KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LOCKED TO OUR SOUTH AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE WILL EXIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FRI INTO EARLY SAT.
ROUND TWO (POTENTIALLY) ARRIVES IN SIMILAR FASHION LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR THOUGH
WITH LATEST GFS KEEPING SURFACE LOW AND ALL PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. CONTINUED WITH CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN IT IS AT
THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD AND FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICH AND LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
INTO NW INDIANA AND THE SBN TERMINAL AS THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE COLD MARINE LAYER ACCENTUATE
THE FRONT. ADDED IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTH BEND DURING THE MORNING
FOR THESE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
UPDATE...
CURRENT TRENDS MATCH FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES. RAIN HAS STAYED OUT
OF CENTRAL INDIANA SO FAR...AND IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO START
ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL TUE 03Z. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
IS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT COULD FILTER INTO THE AREA
AT THAT POINT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 70S AND ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...STAYING WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...REACHING
NORTHERN INDIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA
FAIL TO SHOW ANY DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE COLUMN. FARTHER
ALOFT...MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN A OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OVERNIGHT LOOKS WEAK...AS 850 WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 30
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING INTO THE FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE
FOR POPS TONIGHT IS LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP...MAINLY LATE
ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRY TO TREND
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE...COLLABORATION WILLING.
AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z...STILL LINGERING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGING RIDING SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST
FORCING FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVER 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH. THUS WILL TREND
POPS HIGH ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS BEST. GIVEN THE MIX OF SUN IN
THE MORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAVMOS.
A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING
ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HEATING IS LOST. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
FORCING LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS LINGER WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST A DEEPER LOW WITHIN THE LOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA. A
NEGATIVELY TILED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THAT TIME WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
OVER 4.5 G/KG. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND HIGHS COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONE WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING
AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND GEMNH MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE EURO BEGINS RAIN CHANCES 6 TO 12 HOURS SOONER.
WILL TWEAK THE BLENDED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OTHER PERIODS.
STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FROM 45 TO 50 NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET AT LAF PER
RADAR TRENDS. THE ONCE WIDESPREAD HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE NOW
EVEN HINTING AT SMALL COVERAGE AT BEST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS BUBBLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AT THE H8 LEVEL THIS MORNING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONVECTION DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. PROB SEVERE AND MRMS DATA HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THESE CELLS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL....HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN
REPORTED YET. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY TO 100%.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE GROWING MISSOURI MCS HAS PRODUCED FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY UP TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS
ONLY BEING HANDLED BY THE HRRR AND PARTIALLY THE 06Z NAM. I HAVE
UPDATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED AND UPPED
THEM TO INCLUDE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30. BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS. THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER AND LOW CIGS IN THE AM TOMORROW.
LOOKS LIKE THE IFR AND NOW MVFR DECK THAT MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH
STOPPED A FEW MILES FROM MLI. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP AREAS SOUTH
IN VFR FLIGHT RULES. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH EARLY
TOMORROW. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DBQ HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING HAVE
GONE WITH PROB30 AT THOSE SITES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS BUBBLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AT THE H8 LEVEL THIS MORNING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONVECTION DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. PROB SEVERE AND MRMS DATA HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THESE CELLS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL....HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN
REPORTED YET. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY TO 100%.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE GROWING MISSOURI MCS HAS PRODUCED FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY UP TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS
ONLY BEING HANDLED BY THE HRRR AND PARTIALLY THE 06Z NAM. I HAVE
UPDATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED AND UPPED
THEM TO INCLUDE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30. BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS. THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A CHALLENGING AVIATION DAY AND NIGHT ARE IN STORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS AROUND 800 TO 1500 FT SPREAD
SOUTHWEST OUT OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...LIKELY REACHING BOTH CID
AND MLI BEFORE STALLING OUT NORTH OF BRL. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...TURNING ALL WINDS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KTS. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS DECK SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE GROWING MISSOURI MCS HAS PRODUCED FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY UP TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS
ONLY BEING HANDLED BY THE HRRR AND PARTIALLY THE 06Z NAM. I HAVE
UPDATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED AND UPPED
THEM TO INCLUDE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
ERVIN
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30. BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS. THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A CHALLENGING AVIATION DAY AND NIGHT ARE IN STORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS AROUND 800 TO 1500 FT SPREAD
SOUTHWEST OUT OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...LIKELY REACHING BOTH CID
AND MLI BEFORE STALLING OUT NORTH OF BRL. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...TURNING ALL WINDS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KTS. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS DECK SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
OVERALL NO BIG ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEATHER WISE. WE ARE
DEALING WITH SOME TEMP SPLITS...AND ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH
THE TRENDS. A FEW PASSING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE UPDATE WAS MINOR AT
THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
CLOUDS ARE SCARCE OVERALL...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON SKY COVER FOR A
WHILE LONGER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE BLENDING OF OBS INTO THE
FORECAST RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
THE UPDATE MAINLY BLENDS LATE DAY OBS INTO THE NIGHT TIME
FORECAST...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME MIXING HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
UNDER WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. WITH THIS DRIER
AIR...ANY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT AT
BAY...LEADING TO A DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE A
BIT...LEADING TO A RATHER PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
COOL OFF UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S...WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WILL SEND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...FEEL THAT
MODELS MAY STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOWING FOR
WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION. UNTIL SOMETHING CAN FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING VORT MAX CROSSES THE REGION...WE`LL BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION AS WE WILL BE LACKING TRIGGERS. ALSO...THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ON THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS
WELL...SO THAT LENDS ITSELF TO LESS CONVECTION AS WELL. BY LATE IN
THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY FIRES ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MORE
TO THE EAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW...SO STILL SOME QUESTION HOW
FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL REACH AND WILL BE MAINLY DETERMINED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PUSHING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. THUS...HARD TO
GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES. ALSO...WHILE WE ARE IN A MARGINAL
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...OVERALL SHEAR IS VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THE INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS IMPRESSIVE LIKE I
ANTICIPATE...THAN THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL COULD STILL BE SEEN BY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
AS THE VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY EXITS BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...WE`LL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BEING MUCH QUIETER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...ONLY
FALLING A TOUCH UNDER 60 FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING SOME TEMPORARY DRY
WEATHER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOWING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS TO MITIGATE SOME
OF THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL FORCING MECHANISMS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE POPS A TAD...BUT HAVE
STILL ALLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY...WITH TROUGHINESS
REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGHS RETREAT TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
VFR REMAINS THE STORY FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
FOR TUESDAY AND THIS WILL AID IN CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN STORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAF SITES
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT OVERALL BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR/NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL...OVERALL WINDS DO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 15 KT RANGE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Overall, no major changes to the forecast for the remainder of this
evening and overnight. Continue to expect a dry overnight with a
weak impulse traveling across central IL/IN to keep bulk of
showers/storms north of the area. This feature will act to drop a
frontal boundary toward the area, which may bring a few light
showers toward dawn but most likely just an increase in cloud cover.
Mild night with lows holding up in the 60s.
For tomorrow, latest guidance continues to suggest the combination
of a passing mid-level wave and daytime instability will spark a
round of showers and storms by mid-afternoon. Consensus of the hi-
res data shows this to initiate across southern Indiana, then track
into north central or central Kentucky. In coordination with
neighboring offices, bumped up chances into the 50 to 70 percent
range for parts of the area for mid/late afternoon into early
evening. Severe threat still is on the table with some loosely
organized multi-cell clusters producing damaging winds.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Now - Tonight...
Dry weather will continue this afternoon and through the much
overnight under influence of high pressure. For the remainder of the
afternoon, highs will max out in the 80 to 85 range with scattered
diurnally driven clouds. SW winds between 10 and 15 mph will gust up
around 25 to 30 mph at times.
Expect lows in the lower 60s tonight with increasing cloud cover
toward dawn. A few rain showers may be possible toward sunrise but
most spots should remain dry.
...Rounds of Showers and Storms through Midweek, Some Strong
Possible...
Tuesday - Wednesday Night...
By Tuesday, surface low will travel into New England with a trailing
cold front stretching across southern IL/IN/OH toward the Ohio
River. With destabilization in the form of low level moisture
convergence and heating ahead of the front, expect scattered showers
and storms to develop by mid to late afternoon. Additionally, a
subtle mid level perturbation will slide through the flow aloft,
helping to enhance deep shear a bit during this time. This could
promote some storm organization in the form of a few line segments
with a damaging wind threat. Heavy rain, lightning and some hail
will also be secondary threats. Highs should reach into the low 80s
on Tuesday.
Think we`ll see a drop off in coverage on Tuesday Night with the
passage of the wave and loss of heating. However, with the front
still in the area will keep lower coverage in the grids. Expect mild
lows in the low 60s.
Strong and negatively tilted shortwave ejects out of the Plains to
the upper Midwest during the day Wednesday through Wednesday night.
As this occurs, low level response will help to drag the stalled
frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front. This will allow
for scattered to numerous showers and storms along the warm front in
the morning. Then, another round of showers and storms is expected
once the better forcing arrives in the afternoon and evening.
Destabilization will be in question, but should be able to at least
realize some instability in the warm sector by afternoon/evening.
This combined with the forcing and enough deep layer shear for
organization a few strong storms will again be possible. Main
threats for severe would be damaging winds. Additionally, heavy
rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, and some hail will also be
possible with any stronger storm.
Coverage of storms should be diminishing by dawn on Thursday with
temperatures falling into the low 60s by this time.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2016
The active, progressive upper level flow with periodic impulses
moving through the lower Ohio Valley will continue late in the work
week, this weekend and into early next week. Overall, an unsettled
pattern for the area.
On Thursday, one round of showers and thunderstorms will likely be
exiting during the early morning hours as a PV anomaly passes
through the region. The surface low remains back to our northwest,
so with daytime heating and modest lapse rates, MUCAPE around 1000
J/kg develops during the afternoon. Shear profiles aren`t
impressive, so storm mode likely to be pulse or loosely organized
multicells. Likely some residual boundaries around so scattered
afternoon and early evening showers/storms will be possible. Look
for highs right around 80.
Friday continues to look like our driest day of the week as we`re in
between weather systems. High pressure originating out of the lower
Great Lakes will provide drier, slightly cooler air. Look for partly
to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s to near 80, warmest
near the TN border.
The western trough will reload and eject another surface low out
into the central Plains and mid-Mississippi valley this weekend.
Still plenty of uncertainty in the strength and position of the
surface low and warm front Saturday morning, but overall the chances
of showers/storms will be on the increase during the day. Higher
confidence that we`ll see additional rounds of storms Saturday night
into Sunday, and likely into the first part of next week. The
environment will favor stronger to potentially severe storms as well
with a more favorable shear environment. Latest 7 day rainfall
outlook shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rain through early
next week so depending on how storms play this week, we may have to
monitor the hydrologic side of things more closely.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Will be watching upstream convection for potential for showers
around the SDF/LEX terminals this morning, otherwise expecting VFR
conditions with south to southwest winds the first half of the
period. Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with timing of
afternoon storms, but it does appear some upper level energy will
cross to our north and provide focus for some storms to develop in
the late afternoon into evening hours. Brief IFR conditions are
possible as well as gusty winds with these storms. Any storms should
be dissipating by the end of the period, but a frontal boundary will
stall over the region and should provide a focus for additional
showers/storms the next few days.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Convective trends this evening appear to matching closer to the
GFS, Canadian, NAM-WRF (NMM & ARW versions), and the HRRR guidance
for tonight through Tuesday night. Current convection over
Central/Southwest Illinois poised along low level convergence
smack in the middle of a SSW-NNE oriented theta-e plume. As the
night progresses, this theta-e axis should become more oriented
west to east, pulling richer moisture toward Southwest
Indiana/Southeast Illinois/Northwest Kentucky between 3 am and 7
am CDT. This could produce isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity in that area. Noticed even SPC has modified their
convective outlook northwest of the WFO PAH CWA reflecting a
greater severe potential along the I-70 corridor over MO/IL for
the rest of tonight.
The adjustment this evening for Tuesday will be an increase in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the middle and late
afternoon hours, a lesser coverage (especially along the AR/TN
borders) Tuesday evening, then a ramp up of PoPs/Weather late
Tuesday night. Numerical guidance has been hinting at the
propagation of an MCS southeast across the area late Tuesday
night.
Other sensible weather elements, such as sky, temperatures,
dewpoints, and winds appear to be in line. Was not surprise by the
expansion of the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk area over the area for
Tuesday. Cannot rule a stray storm producing severe or near severe
hail or wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Models are in pretty decent agreement on the track of our
upcoming weather system. Models show a surface low over eastern
Colorado at 12z Tuesday, moving over southeast Nebraska by 00z
Thursday. The warm front associated with this low will be hanging
out north of the PAH forecast area at 12z Tuesday, dropping south
into our region by Tuesday evening and remaining in our area
through Wednesday. The surface low will then bring the trailing
cold front across our area Wednesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop along the
warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night, and along and ahead of the
cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. ECMWF and GFS are in
good agreement showing scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, with the best chances in our northern
counties along the warm front. Models then show a push of moisture
into our western counties late Tuesday night, spreading east
through the day Wednesday, continuing into Wednesday night. Went
with increasing chances from north to south late tonight into
Tuesday, the went with likely pops north to good chance south
Tuesday night. Went with likely pops area wide on Wednesday, with
chances gradually decreasing from the west Wednesday night.
SPC has included all but our southern Kentucky counties in a
marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday into possibly Tuesday
evening due to some pretty impressive instability along and south
of the warm front. For Wednesday into Wednesday evening, our
western two thirds of counties are in a slight risk and the rest
of our area in a marginal as the approaching cold front moves into
our already unstable air mass. As for rainfall amounts, our
overall totals should be highest across our northern counties
where the warm front will trigger some heavier rainfall Tuesday
into Tuesday night, but isolated higher amounts will be possible
area wide Wednesday into Wednesday evening with thunderstorm
activity.
Our southerly winds will bring not only plenty of moisture into
the region for the next couple of days, but continued very warm
conditions. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through
Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight through Wednesday night
will mostly be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Tuesday will be
in the 80 to 85 degree range, then the additional cloud
cover/precipitation on Wednesday will drop readings back several
degrees into the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016
Average confidence in the long term due to multiple rain events and
some model disparity where timing, track, and coverage are concerned
with these events.
On Thursday small precipitation chances exist over the northeast
third/half of the CWA on the back side of a system that crosses the
region Wednesday night. The frontal boundary associated with this
system is forecast to become stationary just to our south Thursday
night and right now that period looks dry.
A closed H5 low moving northeast out of the four corners region on
Friday will induce a surface low on the aforementioned boundary over
the panhandle of Texas which will begin to generate an overrunning
rain event that is forecast to develop showers and thunderstorms
into our far western counties on Friday. Models not seeing eye to
eye too well with the onset of precipitation so it may not begin as
early as originally thought.
As the system slowly approaches, precipitation chances continue to
ramp up Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances area wide
being Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of the system. In
its wake, precipitation chances are expected to taper off from the
west but will linger from Sunday into Monday due to the presence of
upstream upper level energy and decent moisture.
Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1204 am CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Challenging TAFs continue with the 06z Tuesday issuance. Kept with
MVFR ceilings with the KCGI TAF, with sharp ceiling changes at
KEVV and KOWB, especially during the last 6-9 hours of the TAF
period as convective elements work along surface boundary. Most
variation in weather conditions will likely range between 14z
Tuesday to 03z Wednesday.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINAS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING SLOWLY
NWD OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE WEAK RIDGING LINGERS
CLOSER TO HOME. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS FOUND...OTHERWISE WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL PER LATEST SFC OBS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION BEING OF A
DIURNAL NATURE...EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE FUN STARTS LATER TONIGHT AS THE WRN CONUS LOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DROPS THROUGH IT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. COMBO OF INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...EXCELLENT MOISTURE (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCH PWATS) AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
AT MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR
TIMEFRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT ARE PROGGED. PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AS WELL AS
STEEP LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY
IN PLACE BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
INSOLATION AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL BE SO NO
SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. COMBO WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY. ENTIRE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR WEDNESDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY/CAPE/LAPSE RATES ALL
IMPROVING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 83 69 86 / 10 70 40 20
LCH 73 81 72 84 / 20 60 30 20
LFT 73 84 74 85 / 10 50 40 30
BPT 73 83 72 85 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
230 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.
TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.
AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.
TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.
AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AS LLVL DRY AIR IN THE NE FLOW TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO
PUSHES INTO UPR MI...WHICH HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AND CLEARED THE LO
CLDS AT CMX...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO CLEAR THIS
MRNG. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.
TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.
AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AS WEAK LOW SLIDES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PCPN WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FM W TO E AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AT KCMX AND KSAW. WITH SHALLOW MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING... RESULTING IN
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...BEGINNING FIRST
AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.
TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AS WEAK LOW SLIDES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PCPN WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FM W TO E AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AT KCMX AND KSAW. WITH SHALLOW MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING... RESULTING IN
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...BEGINNING FIRST
AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED...BUT
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NRN WI. WITH WEAK SRN STREAM RIDGING
OVER THE SE CONUS AND A TROF CONTINUING TO PERSIST IN SE CANADA...
THE SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR EASTWARD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW
BTWN THE RIDGE AND TROF. RAIN THAT LIFTED THRU THE FCST AREA LAST
NIGHT WAS REPLACED BY SCT SHOWERY PCPN DURING THE MORNING UNDER A
PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS AFTN...APPROACHING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO MORE ORGANIZED BANDS
OF SHRA AND EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. SOO
WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SNOW OCCURRING TODAY WITH EVEN A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. FARTHER W...KERY OB HAS INDICATED SNOW AS PTYPE AT
TIMES WITH SFC TEMP OF 33 TO 34 DEGREES. PROBABLY CAN`T RULE IT
OUT...BUT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS UNANIMOUSLY DON`T SUPPORT SNOW AT
KERY. UNDER CLOUDS AND PCPN...IT`S BEEN ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS E
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH WEAKENING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GIVEN ONGOING THUNDER
JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER
ROUGHLY THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE NE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT THAT THE PCPN WILL
AT LEAST MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER AS LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FALLS AOB 0C. MIGHT SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. IF CHANGEOVER IS A LITTLE QUICKER...THERE
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.
SOME PATCHY -SN MAY LINGER OVER THE NCNTRL EARLY TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SHARP CLEARING LINE NOTED THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO...JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IS SIGN OF WHAT`S TO COME ON
TUE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SHOW
DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM N TO S TUE MORNING...WHICH LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
SHOW SHEARED OUT VORTICITY PASSING ALONG OR JUST S OF THE MI/WI
BORDER...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE S THRU
THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE...GRADIENT NE WIND AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C AT MIDDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 40F.
WELL INLAND...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
AS WEAK LOW SLIDES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PCPN WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FM W TO E AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AT KCMX AND KSAW. WITH SHALLOW MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING... RESULTING IN
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...BEGINNING FIRST
AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING ACROSS WI TO SOUTHERN LWR MI...STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE WINDS...GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
INTO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL
PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 20KT THU-SAT ACROSS
THE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.
THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.
THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 44 32 51 / 0 10 0 0
INL 30 54 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 35 51 34 58 / 30 20 0 0
HYR 32 51 31 58 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 31 44 32 51 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-
142-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions have spread across the KC terminals with MVFR clouds
still just hanging on across KSTJ. Storms from earlier today have
cleared the terminals and will not return other than a chance of
showers at the northern KSTJ terminal which might keep the MVFR
clouds in up north. Otherwise, skies will start to clear out
sometime Thursday with winds veering to the northwest late in the
day.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Thursday. Westerly surface winds will persist tonight into
Thursday in the wake of the cold front that moved through during
the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
655 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Rain will weaken or exit this morning as IFR CIGs slowly retreat
to the north. They should be exiting all STL metro sites in the
next hour or two, but may take much if not all of the morning
before lifting at UIN. Another round of storms will fire this
afternoon and handled with VCTS at most sites with targeting a
smaller range of time in the TAF with TEMPO groups until
confidence increases to slide to prevailing. Rain chances will
sharply decrease this evening and skies clear.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
First band of convection has shifted east of the terminals and
should see clearing take place this morning. Winds will veer back
to a southerly and eventually southwesterly direction with the
passage of a front that brings a drier air mass in. Convection
will be possible ahead of this front, but will more than likely be
later in the day and east of the terminals. For this reason, have
not included additional thunderstorm mentions in this TAF
issuance.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Showers with embedded thunder will continue over the next few hours
at all TAF sites, then should push out of the area between 09z and
12z. Winds will veer gradually from north northeast to the southeast
overnight, then to the southwest after sunrise. Another round of a few
showers and isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon, but the
probability of these storms impacting the TAF sites is too low to
warrant a mention at this time.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>004-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 76 57 76 50 / 80 70 10 10
Quincy 67 52 69 45 / 80 70 20 10
Columbia 74 51 72 47 / 60 40 10 10
Jefferson City 77 52 75 48 / 60 30 10 10
Salem 75 59 77 50 / 80 70 10 10
Farmington 75 55 79 50 / 70 30 5 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Line of convection starting to make an eastward push now over
southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Should make it to the JLN
area prior to the 06z TAF time and into SGF/BBG by 07-08z. Have
things going through fairly quickly and ending prior to 12z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are
expected, especially when winds become more southwesterly today as
the drier air moves in.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Convection over eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri is
proceeding slowly eastward...about as expected. Looks like the
leading edges will be moving into the western fringes of our CWFA
by 06-07Z. Have made minor tweaks to the PoPs to slow the precip
accordingly. RAP is forecasting 1000-1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE along
with increasing deep layer shear...and this continues to point
toward the possibility of elevated severe storms with severe hail
being the primary threat.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Current bowing convective system over SW IL has a well established
cold pool and will continue to move east into the western OH
Valley into a large region of unstable air in advance of it. The
deep convective line with any severe threat should clear the area by
500 pm with trailing stratiform rain clearing the CWA by early
evening. A prominent outflow boundary with the convective system,
which should have completely moved through the CWA by 00z, has
largely stabilized the air mass to boundary layer based storms in
its wake. I will retain some low chance pops this evening on the
fringes of our CWA however I think the vast majority of the
evening in the wake of the present system will be dry. Current
thinking is that overnight we will see a MCS that has evolved
across the Plains early this evening, move west to east into central
and finally eastern MO in the predawn hours. Additional showers
and thunderstorms could develop late this evening and overnight
ahead of the aforementioned progressive Plains MCS in response to
the LLJ and WAA along north of the retreating outflow boundary/warm
front composite. There will be a severe threat with this overnight
activity given MUCAPE of 1000+ j/kg and increasing southwesterly
deep layer shear, but not nearly as great as the system that moved
through today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
A little unclear how everything will pan out on Wednesday. There
will likely be ongoing convection from a decaying MCS over parts
of eastern MO in the morning that will move into IL. However it
does appear that there will be sufficient air mass recovery in the
wake of the morning convection. How much and the most favored
corridors are hard to say. Mid level lapse rates will remain steep
and heating should lead to SBCAPE of at least 1500 j/kg over parts
of central MO by early afternoon. The combination of the east-northeast
rotating short wave trof and large scale ascent, and the attendant
advancing cold front should result in thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the cold front by mid afternoon. Coverage should
then increase through the remainder of the afternoon, with storms
persisting into the evening as the front and trof progress east.
We will probably see a mixed convective mode with all severe
weather threats. Most of the activity should have moved out of the
CWA by 06z Thursday.
The trof will be lifting to the northeast on Thursday with the
cold front advancing into the OH/TN Valley region. Present
indications are that increasingly deep westerly flow in the wake
of the front will lead to good drying and little if any
precipitation.
Next round of showers and thunderstorms looks to unfold Friday
night into the weekend. First with the LLJ, WAA, and a lead
impulse Friday night/Saturday and then with another formidable
upper trof and attendant cold front Saturday night into Sunday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
THE WY/CO BORDER...WITH ELONGATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH CO/NM.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ALSO HAD
WEAKENED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 95KT IN AZ/NM. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND DRYLINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL TX.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT...8C+ MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
ACROSS EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL-EASTERN KS/OK...WITH UP TO 45KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 20C+ EXTENDED
THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL MO...WITH LOWER LAPSE
RATES IN EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS IN AREA AFFECTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION. AT 18Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF KSLN TO NEAR KEMP...AND LIKELY
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EVIDENT FROM NEAR KCNK TO NEAR KMYZ TO NORTH OF
KFNB TO NEAR KICL.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO THREW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN THAT
SUPPRESSED THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWARD INTO KS. SOME RECOVERY HAS
OCCURRED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GHOST OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB...THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR IS STILL IN CENTRAL KS. WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND RECOVERY...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THAT WARM
SECTOR TO RECOVER IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NEB...ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ALL ATTENDANT THREATS. NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR HAILERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION GETS GOING. THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN A
TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING...AND WITH
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NO HURRY TO EXIT...MAY REGENERATE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO CENTRAL NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A WARM SECTOR INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IA
IN THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THREATS ARE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES EXIST...WITH THREATS FOR
HAIL...WIND...AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL ON GETTING SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY IN BREAKS
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. RISK OF STORMS SHOULD WANE EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR DRAWS DOWN INTO EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...BUT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORT BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FINALLY GIVES US A
BREATHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RETURN
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY AND MURKY PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW SLIDES TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH LOW RISK FOR THUNDER BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY AROUND MONDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN KANSAS OR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MOVE
NORTH. THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY HIGH KLNK AND KOMA BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
IFR CIG/VSBY IN SHOWERS/THUNDER. KOFK WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
IFR SHOWERS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH KLNK AND KOMA SEEING
MVFR CIGS BUT A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
121 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL IS TRENDING COLDER. THE COLD AIR IS OVER-TAKING THE
FCST AREA AND SNOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB IN SIOUX
COUNTY. SNOW MAY BE UNDERWAY IN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY ALSO. A
NEW FORECAST IS OUT FOR PERIODS OF SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC FRONT NEAR DODGE CITY AT 06Z LIFTS NORTH
TO NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER BY 12Z AND REMAINS STATIONARY
TODAY. THE FRONT THEN GETS SWEPT EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NCNTL KS.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF
THE SFC FRONT AT 12Z WHICH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
LARGE AND SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM ACTIVITY COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 12Z
ACROSS SWRN NEB. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REFORM
ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z WHICH WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MANY HOURS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PRODUCE AN AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL NEAR 1
INCH. THE THREAT OF HAIL...LARGE AND SMALL...SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PRODUCES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 5OS TODAY.
THIS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE NAM SUGGESTS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PTYPE
ALL RAIN. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED AS THE SNOW AND COLDER AIR APPEARS
ELUSIVE THIS MORNING...CONFINED TO WY...ND AND MT.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE SFC LOW AND TRIPLE PT THROUGH KS TODAY AND
TO NEAR LINCOLN NEB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...FRONTIER AND SRN CUSTER COUNTIES IN THE COOL
SECTOR LESSENING THE RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IF THE WARM FRONT
CAN LIFT INTO SRN NEB...TO NEAR I-80 EAST OF NORTH PLATTE...THEN THE
TORNADO RISK WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS EVENING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS FOR AT LEAST AN ISO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST NEB NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEB ZONES. AS THE LOW
EJECTS EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
NW NEB...AND A MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE
RECENT TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN COOLER...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE EVENT THAT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NW NEB...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. THE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO FOLLOW. THE RIDGE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED AS TRANSIENT AS THE NEXT LOW CLOSES ON THE PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO
RECOVER...SO THE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE SHOWERS OF RAIN
ARE FORECAST. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW WOULD ALLOW
SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT A
MINIMUM. WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP AN ISO T MENTION GOING IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...THUS
A MIX OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NW NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS H85 T/S FALLING BELOW 0C.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EC
ARE GENERATING MODERATE QPF AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
TRACK NOW FAVORS THE SANDHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS THE H5 LOW TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IT STALLS AND IMPACTS THE
CWA FOR A PERIOD OF 48 HOURS OR MORE. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...PRECIP AND PERIODS OF CAA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A
WELL DEFINED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD WARMING TEMPS BACK
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS A SINGLE CELL IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING CONSIDERING
THAT THE MAIN EVENT IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS HAVE THERE BEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS ARE THE PART THAT
CREATE THE CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF
WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME FOG AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN AREA WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.
WITH THE START OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND SHEAR AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING
AROUND SUNRISE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
ONE OF THE MAIN VARIABLES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS PUSH THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH THEORY SINCE THERE COULD BE STRATUS
AROUND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD SLOW THE
FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THERE BE MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A DRY OR NEARLY DRY PERIOD FOR MID DAY.
HAVE KEPT THE POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS HOW MUCH
THERE WILL BE.
WHEN WILL CONVECTION GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON? MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE CONVECTION STARTING SOMETIME AROUND 21 TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN A DRY SLOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO SEE JUST WHERE AND HOW FAR IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
IT IS NO QUESTION THAT THE MAIN CONCERNS LIE WITHIN THE SHORT-
TERM...BUT THE MID AND EXTENDED ARE STILL ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
IN THEIR OWN RIGHT.
MID-TERM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY):
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT US TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT
BECOMES RELATIVELY STAGNANT AND SLOW MOVING. THIS CAUSED THE
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD WITH THE GFS AND EC MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE NAM ROTATES THE ENERGY BACK NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL WANE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THAT THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LONG-TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY):
THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE WET AT LEAST OFF AND ON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
FAIRLY HIGH. WATER COULD BE COME A CONCERN. WATCH THIS PERIOD AS
IT NEARS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT AND MID-TERM
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS ABBREVIATED
BECAUSE OF THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TO RESULT
IN CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THE BEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN +TSRAS AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW
WHEN PREVAILING CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 500FT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
721 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE RAP MODEL IS TRENDING COLDER. THE COLD AIR IS OVER-TAKING THE
FCST AREA AND SNOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB IN SOUIX
COUNTY. SNOW MAY BE UNDERWAY IN PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY ALSO. A
NEW FORECAST IS OUT FOR PERIODS OF SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC FRONT NEAR DODGE CITY AT 06Z LIFTS NORTH
TO NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER BY 12Z AND REMAINS STATIONARY
TODAY. THE FRONT THEN GETS SWEPT EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NCNTL KS.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF
THE SFC FRONT AT 12Z WHICH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
LARGE AND SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM ACTIVITY COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 12Z
ACROSS SWRN NEB. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REFORM
ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z WHICH WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MANY HOURS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PRODUCE AN AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL NEAR 1
INCH. THE THREAT OF HAIL...LARGE AND SMALL...SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PRODUCES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 5OS TODAY.
THIS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE NAM SUGGESTS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PTYPE
ALL RAIN. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED AS THE SNOW AND COLDER AIR APPEARS
ELUSIVE THIS MORNING...CONFINED TO WY...ND AND MT.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE SFC LOW AND TRIPLE PT THROUGH KS TODAY AND
TO NEAR LINCOLN NEB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...FRONTIER AND SRN CUSTER COUNTIES IN THE COOL
SECTOR LESSENING THE RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IF THE WARM FRONT
CAN LIFT INTO SRN NEB...TO NEAR I-80 EAST OF NORTH PLATTE...THEN THE
TORNADO RISK WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS EVENING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS FOR AT LEAST AN ISO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST NEB NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEB ZONES. AS THE LOW
EJECTS EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
NW NEB...AND A MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE
RECENT TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN COOLER...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE EVENT THAT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NW NEB...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. THE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO FOLLOW. THE RIDGE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED AS TRANSIENT AS THE NEXT LOW CLOSES ON THE PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO
RECOVER...SO THE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE SHOWERS OF RAIN
ARE FORECAST. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW WOULD ALLOW
SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT A
MINIMUM. WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP AN ISO T MENTION GOING IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...THUS
A MIX OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NW NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS H85 T/S FALLING BELOW 0C.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EC
ARE GENERATING MODERATE QPF AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
TRACK NOW FAVORS THE SANDHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS THE H5 LOW TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IT STALLS AND IMPACTS THE
CWA FOR A PERIOD OF 48 HOURS OR MORE. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...PRECIP AND PERIODS OF CAA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A
WELL DEFINED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD WARMING TEMPS BACK
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH TSTMS/STRONG/SVR TSTMS. HAIL IS THE SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERN. ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SFC FRONT NEAR DODGE CITY AT 06Z LIFTS NORTH
TO NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER BY 12Z AND REMAINS STATIONARY
TODAY. THE FRONT THEN GETS SWEPT EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS NCNTL KS.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF
THE SFC FRONT AT 12Z WHICH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY.
THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
LARGE AND SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM ACTIVITY COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 12Z
ACROSS SWRN NEB. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REFORM
ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z WHICH WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MANY HOURS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PRODUCE AN AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL NEAR 1
INCH. THE THREAT OF HAIL...LARGE AND SMALL...SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PRODUCES HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 5OS TODAY.
THIS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE NAM SUGGESTS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE PTYPE
ALL RAIN. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED AS THE SNOW AND COLDER AIR APPEARS
ELUSIVE THIS MORNING...CONFINED TO WY...ND AND MT.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THE SFC LOW AND TRIPLE PT THROUGH KS TODAY AND
TO NEAR LINCOLN NEB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
ERN LINCOLN COUNTY...FRONTIER AND SRN CUSTER COUNTIES IN THE COOL
SECTOR LESSENING THE RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IF THE WARM FRONT
CAN LIFT INTO SRN NEB...TO NEAR I-80 EAST OF NORTH PLATTE...THEN THE
TORNADO RISK WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A SHOT AT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THIS EVENING FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED CAPE REMAINS FOR AT LEAST AN ISO MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
SOUTHWEST NEB NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEB ZONES. AS THE LOW
EJECTS EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS...THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
NW NEB...AND A MIX AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THE
RECENT TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN COOLER...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE EVENT THAT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NW NEB...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. THE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO FOLLOW. THE RIDGE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED AS TRANSIENT AS THE NEXT LOW CLOSES ON THE PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO
RECOVER...SO THE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ELSEWHERE SHOWERS OF RAIN
ARE FORECAST. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW WOULD ALLOW
SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT A
MINIMUM. WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP AN ISO T MENTION GOING IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...THUS
A MIX OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NW NEBRASKA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS H85 T/S FALLING BELOW 0C.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EC
ARE GENERATING MODERATE QPF AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
TRACK NOW FAVORS THE SANDHILLS. IN ADDITION...AS THE H5 LOW TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IT STALLS AND IMPACTS THE
CWA FOR A PERIOD OF 48 HOURS OR MORE. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...PRECIP AND PERIODS OF CAA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A
WELL DEFINED RIDGE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD WARMING TEMPS BACK
ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH TSTMS/STRONG/SVR TSTMS. HAIL IS THE SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERN. ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR/VFR IN RAIN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS A SINGLE CELL IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING CONSIDERING
THAT THE MAIN EVENT IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS HAVE THERE BEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS ARE THE PART THAT
CREATE THE CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF
WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME FOG AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN AREA WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.
WITH THE START OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND SHEAR AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING
AROUND SUNRISE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
ONE OF THE MAIN VARIABLES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS PUSH THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH THEORY SINCE THERE COULD BE STRATUS
AROUND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD SLOW THE
FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THERE BE MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A DRY OR NEARLY DRY PERIOD FOR MID DAY.
HAVE KEPT THE POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS HOW MUCH
THERE WILL BE.
WHEN WILL CONVECTION GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON? MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE CONVECTION STARTING SOMETIME AROUND 21 TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN A DRY SLOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO SEE JUST WHERE AND HOW FAR IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
IT IS NO QUESTION THAT THE MAIN CONCERNS LIE WITHIN THE SHORT-
TERM...BUT THE MID AND EXTENDED ARE STILL ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
IN THEIR OWN RIGHT.
MID-TERM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY):
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT US TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT
BECOMES RELATIVELY STAGNANT AND SLOW MOVING. THIS CAUSED THE
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD WITH THE GFS AND EC MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE NAM ROTATES THE ENERGY BACK NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL WANE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THAT THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LONG-TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY):
THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE WET AT LEAST OFF AND ON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
FAIRLY HIGH. WATER COULD BE COME A CONCERN. WATCH THIS PERIOD AS
IT NEARS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT AND MID-TERM
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS ABBREVIATED
BECAUSE OF THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE MAIN CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE
TERMINALS. THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH AND IF
THEY ARE NOT IN THE TERMINAL AREAS BY START OF THE TAF...IT SHOULD
BE SOON. STILL SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THEM THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
325 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS A SINGLE CELL IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING CONSIDERING
THAT THE MAIN EVENT IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS HAVE THERE BEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS ARE THE PART THAT
CREATE THE CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF
WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME FOG AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN AREA WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.
WITH THE START OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND SHEAR AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING
AROUND SUNRISE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
ONE OF THE MAIN VARIABLES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS PUSH THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH THEORY SINCE THERE COULD BE STRATUS
AROUND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD SLOW THE
FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THERE BE MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A DRY OR NEARLY DRY PERIOD FOR MID DAY.
HAVE KEPT THE POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS HOW MUCH
THERE WILL BE.
WHEN WILL CONVECTION GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON? MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE CONVECTION STARTING SOMETIME AROUND 21 TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN A DRY SLOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO SEE JUST WHERE AND HOW FAR IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
IT IS NO QUESTION THAT THE MAIN CONCERNS LIE WITHIN THE SHORT-
TERM...BUT THE MID AND EXTENDED ARE STILL ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
IN THEIR OWN RIGHT.
MID-TERM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY):
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT US TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT
BECOMES RELATIVELY STAGNANT AND SLOW MOVING. THIS CAUSED THE
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD WITH THE GFS AND EC MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE NAM ROTATES THE ENERGY BACK NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL WANE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THAT THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LONG-TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY):
THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE WET AT LEAST OFF AND ON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
FAIRLY HIGH. WATER COULD BE COME A CONCERN. WATCH THIS PERIOD AS
IT NEARS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT AND MID-TERM
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS ABBREVIATED
BECAUSE OF THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST THERE WILL BE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THROUGH MID DAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SOME FOG.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE NOT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXTREMELY LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE TOWARD DAY BREAK. HAVE
MVFR IN THERE NOW...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE
SOME DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY... AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA AND THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST NC... A FUNCTION
OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER WIDESPREAD STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT TEMP
DROP TO ITS NORTH BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HRRR DID A GOOD
JOB IN RECENT RUNS... RESTRICTING THE HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... EVEN CORRECTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... SO
HAVE LARGELY RELIED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT... WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SOMETHING LIKELY TO BE LACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... A TREND
TO BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/MCV FROM THE SW
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS / RECENT
TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE... HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS TO 63-67. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT THE STALLED FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO EXIST TO START THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED/PARTIAL BREAKS IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALSO LIKELY TO SET UP A THERMAL
MOISTURE BOUNDARY(TMB)ACROSS THE AREA. SO FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE
DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
NEVERTHELESS DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-
2000J/KG MLCAPE. WESTERLY H5 FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT...WHICH WILL
IMPROVE BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 TO 35KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS
WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE
BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL
CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN
BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH
KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH
BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RAH/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
850 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FRONTAL ZONE...JUST NORTH OF RICHMOND VA...IS FORECAST TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS EVENING. WEAK
S/W DISTURBANCES CRESTING THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT HAS BEEN FEEDING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER EAST KY AND SW VA... WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS
TO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20-30KTS...STRONGEST INVOF THE FRONT...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO EJECT
EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT THE STALLED FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO EXIST TO START THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED/PARTIAL BREAKS IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALSO LIKELY TO SET UP A THERMAL
MOISTURE BOUNDARY(TMB)ACROSS THE AREA. SO FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE
DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
NEVERTHELESS DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-
2000J/KG MLCAPE. WESTERLY H5 FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT...WHICH WILL
IMPROVE BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 TO 35KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS
WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE
BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL
CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN
BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH
KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH
BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RAH/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
154 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE
INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED
VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT
FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM.
A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL
DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND
A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.
WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE VALID 24 HR 18Z ISSUANCE
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS FCST.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM AN INLAND PROGRESSING AND POTENT
SEA BREEZE THAT WILL YIELD FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU THRU THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...STABLE LOW LEVEL
MARINE AIR WILL KEEP SKIES SKC. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF THE CU...WITH THEIR TOPS BEING FLATTENED OUT.
THUS COULD OBSERVE MODERATE CU GROWTH AT BEST...WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SFC WINDS
STAYING ACTIVE.
AS FOR WINDS...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ONSHORE NEAR THE GA-SC STATE
LINE. A SLOW TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT INTO
WED. IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE AND POTENT INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL REACH THE FLO AND LBT LINE AROUND SUNSET.
OVERALL...LOOKING AT SW-WSW WINDS AT 10 KT G15 KT...BACKING TO
S-SSW AT 10-15 KT WITH G17-19 KT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE
S-SSW AROUND 15 KT G20-25 KT INTO THIS EVENING. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SW-WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY HOLD
AT THIS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THE LATTER DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM THE SW AT 30-35 KT AT 1100 TO 1400 FT AGL. AS A RESULT...
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SFC PG RELAXES-SOME BY WED DAYTIME
MORNING...YIELDING WSW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WED SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY NOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK
A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN
A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
949 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE
INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED
VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT
FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM.
A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL
DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND
A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA.
WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500
J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND
SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST
POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED
YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN
APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT-
LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME
RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK
A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN
A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC
THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY
SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY
THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL
OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT
AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG I-94
BETWEEN BELFIELD AND GLEN ULLIN. TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT NEAR
FREEZING WHICH HAS LED TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY AREAS IS
EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
LIGHT SNOW NOW ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S. ALSO HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SPOT OR TWO OF SLEET MIXED IN FOR THE MOST PART A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW LOOKS TO PREDOMINATE. TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MORE SNOW AS A
WEATHER ELEMENT WEST. OTHERWISE SINCE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER 30S DONT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN AN INCH ON
GRASSY AREAS WEST CENTRAL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
OUR FOCUS THROUGH TUESDAY IS ON THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...AND IN
PARTS OF WESTERN ND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW.
AS OF 20 UTC...A MID-LEVEL LOW BASED NEAR 700 MB IS SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST ND PER SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP ANALYSES. RAIN
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AT MID AFTERNOON
IS TIED TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND BROAD
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION THAT STRETCHES BACK INTO NORTHEAST MT. MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WASH
OUT BY 12 UTC TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING DEFORMATION-AIDED
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
ND TONIGHT. THE 12 UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THAT...AS AS THE MORE RECENT RAPID-REFRESH /RAP AND HRRR/
GUIDANCE. THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM
WAS MORE ROBUST IN ITS ADVERTISEMENT OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW /BASED
ON THE NCEP DOMINANT PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM APPLIED TO ITS
MASS FIELDS/ THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WE UTILIZED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST YIELDED UP TO
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IN SOME PARTS OF WESTERN ND BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ON THE LARGE SCALE...AFTERNOON MOISTURE CHANNEL /WATER
VAPOR/ IMAGES SHOW THE NEXT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REINFORCE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S F WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH YET ONE MORE CHANCE OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVE SYNC ADVERTISING A 500-MB
LOW MOVING ACROSS NEB ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ITS NORTH. THE CONSENSUS OF THAT
GUIDANCE TAKES A WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ND BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. TWO CHALLENGES
WITH THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE 1/ DETERMINING ITS PHASE IN
WESTERN AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE SOME WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND 2/ DECIDING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH. WHERE THE FIRST ISSUE
IS CONCERNED...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN CALLING FOR AN
AREA OF SUB-FREEZING 850-MB TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUGGESTS WET BULB
COOLING WILL BE NECESSARY TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THAT IS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW-CONFIDENCE ITEM...AND MOST OF
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM OUTPUT BACKED OFF
ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THUS...WE HELD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. FINALLY...NOTE THAT THE PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO EMANATE IN THE MODELS OUT OF THE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THAT ERUPTS LATE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT IS
A REASONABLE SOLUTION...BUT WHEN DEEP CONVECTION IS INVOLVED THERE
IS ALWAYS SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...MEAN WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHING WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF LIFTED THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND 12 UTC GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE STATE WILL
JUST BE GRAZED BY THAT WAVE OR NOT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F DURING THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AT KDIK AND
RAIN AT KBIS AND KJMS. KISN AND KMOT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY AT 06 UTC THEY REMAIN VFR BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
PICK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KDIK TO KISN AND KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
LINE ON CONVECTION WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LINE IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO POSE TOO MUCH OF A THREAT...MAINLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST. HRRR IS NOT LATCHING
ONTO THE FEATURE VERY WELL. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE YET...SO BELIEVE IT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE MTNS.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE...35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND 250 M2/S2 OF SRH COULD PRODUCE A FEW
ROTATING STORMS WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL/WIND.
SPC HAS US MARGINALLY RISKED WHICH SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ASSESSMENT.
THE FRONT LAYS OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN...PROVIDING VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO
KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD FOR
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST
DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR
WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS
BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH
THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND KEPT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AROUND 30 KT OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SNEAKS IN WITH
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED. VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN
EXPECTED. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW
LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M M M
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
237 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT WAFFLES
BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MORNING TODAY WITH HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE BIT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE YET TO SEE IT MATERIALIZE ON
RADAR.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THESE STORMS WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE...35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
250 M2/S2 OF SRH COULD PRODUCE A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH THE
BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL/WIND. SPC HAS US MARGINALLY
RISKED WHICH SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ASSESSMENT.
THE FRONT LAYS OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN...PROVIDING VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY. WILL ALSO
KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD FOR
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST
DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR
WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS
BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH
THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND KEPT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AROUND 30 KT OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET SNEAKS IN WITH
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLED. VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN EXPECTED BY 18Z
TODAY. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/26/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONT
WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY PROVIDES OPPORTUNITIES FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM MORNING TODAY WITH HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE BIT OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE YET TO SEE IT MATERIALIZE ON
RADAR.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT TSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THESE STORMS WITH 1000+ J/KG CAPE...35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
250 M2/S2 OF SRH COULD PRODUCE A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH THE
BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT BEING HAIL/WIND. SPC HAS US MARGINALLY
RISKED WHICH SEEMS LIKE A FAIR ASSESSMENT.
THE FRONT LAYS OUT TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS MUCH MODEL DISCREPANCY IN THE MASS AND QPF FIELDS THIS
PERIOD...AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. WHILE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...HOW
FAR SOUTH IT GETS BEFORE STALLING IS A BIG QUESTION. IN ADDITION...
WHEN AND HOW FAST THE FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS EJECTING EASTWARD IS ALSO A QUESTION.
THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS.
THIS ACCEPTED SOLUTION WILL BRING ABOUT A WET PERIOD WITH THE FRONT
BASICALLY HANGING AROUND THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY IS SHOWN WITH
THE FRONT...SO THUNDER INCLUDED MOST AREAS MOST OF THE TIME...BUT
TOO EARLY TO MENTION OTHER THAN GENERAL THUNDER.
SPECIFICALLY...WE HAVE THE FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN
FAR NORTHERN ZONES...DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN START TO
RETURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER
LOW...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THURSDAY. BEST POPS/QPF WILL
THEN ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...LESSENING
SOMEWHAT BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR...
BUT STILL A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE CONTINUING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER MENTIONED FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. DESPITE GOING
WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CLOUDS...WE LOOK FOR HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND ON THE HIGHER
SIDE BY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST
DIMINISHES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM OUT TO OUR
WEST, BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS DIFFER. THE GFS
BRINGS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ANY CASE THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND. WITH
THIS SCENARIO, INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND KEPT CHC POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD BE MORE THAN EXPECTED BY 18Z
TODAY. IFR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY IN WAKE OF FRONT AS DEEP LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/26/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
CEILINGS MAY ALSO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PULLING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...FOLLOWED THE HRRR PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST WHICH DROPS IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SREF
AGREES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW A LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION
SAGGING SOUTHEAST WITH LIKELY POPS. CONTINUED WITH LOWER THUNDER
CHANCES AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS TO DROPS THROUGH. NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES.
ORIGINAL...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IF IT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING BUT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/WEAK LAKE BOUNDARY INTERACTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL STILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL AFTER DARK AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD NW OHIO. THE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BE ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 12Z. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR CHICAGO IN CASE IT SENDS A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TOWARDS WESTERN OHIO.
IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE WEAKENING LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY PUSHING THE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TOWARD
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NW PA TO SEE ANY OF THE
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTHWARD AS CENTRAL OHIO.
AFTER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY THE TREND WILL BE
DOWNWARD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S
NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ON FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY MODELS
SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH AND ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER RIDGE ON SATURDAY THAT
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY. ECMWF HAS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ON SATURDAY BUT THE FOLLOWING TROUGH IS STRONGER AND
BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
BIASED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS GFS HAS NOT DONE AS WELL HANDLING
THE PRESENT WEATHER. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COULD BE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM LOOKS ACTIVE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...ALL OF WHICH WOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LMIC WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
INTO NRN PA THIS MORNING PULING THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN MI WILL PUSH SE
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE SE OF CAK AND YNG BY ABOUT 11Z. SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE SNOWBELT AREA SW
TO NEAR MFR MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT SE OUT OF
THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW HIGH RH AT LOW LEVELS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO BRING IMPROVEMENT.
SW WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE NW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE CONTINUING TO VEER TO
THE NE THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND PROBABLY AGAIN
SAT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT TO NEAR ERIE LAKESHORE THIS
EVENING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WILL RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP DRYLINE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH A COLD
FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE STATE LINES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA RIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. WITH CAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. LATEST OUN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAP IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, LOW BASED FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG
CAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND/OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNDER THE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY CONCERN, SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER COULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOS
DEVELOPING WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SCENARIO, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
QUICK MOVING, SO HYDROLOGY ISSUES/FLOODING CHANCES WOULD BE LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RAMPING DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
WITH POPS DECREASING WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH
MORE MILDER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN
BRING POPS OF TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 77 50 79 / 50 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 77 49 79 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 81 53 84 / 40 0 0 10
GAGE OK 48 73 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 74 48 76 / 80 10 0 0
DURANT OK 62 82 56 84 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/68
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY LASTING INTO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE
MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS IS CRESTING OVR CENTRAL
PA THIS EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO ALL BUT THE S TIER AS
OF 0230Z. HOWEVER...CIRRUS SHIELD ALREADY OVERSPREADING WESTERN
PA ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MDL DATA SUPPORT A DRY NIGHT FOR MOST
OF CENTRAL PA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF SFC WAVE RIDING UP
THE OHIO VALLEY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE S TIER COUNTIES...WHERE
SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ARND DAWN. SOME
PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.
MCLEAR SKIES...LGT WIND AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHILE M/U40S MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND PERIODS OF
COLD RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA
GIVEN THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z OPER AND EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...FELT COMPELLED
TO RAISE POPS TO NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF
INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THU EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT SHOWERS FROM DISSIPATING MCS ARE NOW EXITING SOUTHERN
LANCASTER AND YOR COUNTIES. FOCUS SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGGING ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. HI RES CAMS INDICATE
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z...AND WE`RE OUTLOOKED IN MRGL/SLGT RSK BY SPC WITH ISOLD
MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. WEAK CIN IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER COMPLICATES
THINGS AND DEGRADES CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...BUT STILL ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MARGINAL PULSE WIND GUSTS.
THE SFC FRONTAL WAVE ITSELF TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLING
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THIS FEATURE...WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY FROM 18Z TO 22Z.
SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL AND SLGT RISK AREAS COVER THE SE HALF OF
PENN. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO 30-50 KT WINDS IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...ARE THE MAIN
THREAT.
COOLER AIR IS OVERSPREADING THE NORTHWEST AFTERNOON. HIGHS THERE
ONLY REACH NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE SEEN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST...07Z HRRR IMPLIES THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE I-76/78 CORRIDOR BEFORE DUSK...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATO CU SHOULD
FOLLOW THE CFROPA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.
STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.
MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.
CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MINIMUM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS THROUGH MIDDAY...
BUT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER CENTRAL MTNS AND
DROP ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. CAPE INCREASES MIDDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
SCT TSTMS AS WELL.
PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
SAT...FAIR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
743 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK
OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED MCS HEADED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF
NRN AND WRN PENN AT 1030Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW BRIEF...LOW-TOPPED TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT WILL
BE LAGGING THIS MCS BY SEVERAL HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEY WILL COMBINE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR TO PRODUCE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
STATE.
THE SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLING
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENN...THEN STEADILY EXPAND TO THE ESE ACROSS THE LOWER/MID SUSQ
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AS THE MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
A 2-3 SIGMA 850MB WESTERLY JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIALLY COMPACT AREA OF 3-4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THIS
AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL COVER ABOUT THE
SE THIRD OF THE STATE AT 18Z.
POCKETS OF MDTLY HIGH ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE...WHILE MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS INTO THE NRN MTNS.
SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS THE SE HALF OF PENN...BUT
UPGRADED FAR SERN PENN (INCLUDING YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES) TO
A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO
30-50 KT WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN.
TOTAL FCST RAINFALL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY WAS PAINTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN A GEFS/SREF
BLEND ACROSS APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE 6
HOURLY TOTALS THAT OCCURRED WITH THE MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN OHIO.
COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS
THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL
BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST...07Z HRRR IMPLIES THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE I-76/78 CORRIDOR BEFORE DUSK...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATO CU SHOULD
FOLLOW THE CFROPA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.
STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.
MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.
CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST WAVE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGING AN ERODING AREA OF SHOWERS
/AND EARLIER ISO THUNDER TO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS/. CONDITIONS
REMAINING GENERALLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL PA THOUGH VSBYS HAVE
SLIPPED TO MVFR FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE EAST.
EXPECT A MINIMUM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MID/LATE MORNING...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL MTNS AND DROP
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE STATE. CAPE INCREASES MIDDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SCT
TSTMS AS WELL.
PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
SAT...FAIR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK
OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED MCS HEADED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU OF
NRN AND WRN PENN AT 1030Z. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW BRIEF...LOW-TOPPED TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT WILL
BE LAGGING THIS MCS BY SEVERAL HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEY WILL COMBINE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR TO PRODUCE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
STATE.
THE SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLING
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENN...THEN STEADILY EXPAND TO THE ESE ACROSS THE LOWER/MID SUSQ
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AS THE MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
A 2-3 SIGMA 850MB WESTERLY JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIALLY COMPACT AREA OF 3-4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THIS
AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL COVER ABOUT THE
SE THIRD OF THE STATE AT 18Z.
POCKETS OF MDTLY HIGH ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE...WHILE MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS INTO THE NRN MTNS.
SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS THE SE HALF OF PENN...BUT
UPGRADED FAR SERN PENN (INCLUDING YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES) TO
A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO
30-50 KT WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN.
TOTAL FCST RAINFALL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY WAS PAINTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN A GEFS/SREF
BLEND ACROSS APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE 6
HOURLY TOTALS THAT OCCURRED WITH THE MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN OHIO.
COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS
THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL
BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST...07Z HRRR IMPLIES THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE I-76/78 CORRIDOR BEFORE DUSK...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATO CU SHOULD
FOLLOW THE CFROPA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.
STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.
MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.
CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS MORNING...
BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
IN SCT SHOWERS/VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NW PORTIONS AFTER 09Z AS WESTERLY LLJET
SWINGS THROUGH.
EXPECT A BIT OF A MINIMUM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MID/LATE
MORNING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL MTNS
AND EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MORE UNSTABLE
AIR PUSHES NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
SAT...FAIR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
516 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TRACK
OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED MCS HEADED ACROSS NRN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE AT
09Z WILL PUSH A PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AND WESTERN
PENN THIS MORNING...MUDDYING THE LOCATION OF PREVIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE TRUE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER
EARLY TODAY.
DECENT AMOUNT OF MORNING SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH SOME ALTO CU CLOUDS)
AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS/MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN
PENN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED/POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA LATE THIS MORNING...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL STAY QUITE MILD...IN
THE 50S...TO LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT SOME 15 TO 25 KT
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER NRN
PENN...AND ACCOMPANYING THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SE
FROM THE NW MTNS OF PENN.
SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS MORNING...
BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA AS
MILDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A
2-3 SIGMA 850MB WESTERLY JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF PENN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL SUPPORT AN INITIALLY
COMPACT AREA OF 3-4 SIGMA 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX. THIS AREA OF
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SFC CFRONT WILL COVER ABOUT THE SE THIRD OF
THE STATE AT 18Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE DEMARCATION
LINE BETWEEN MDTLY HIGH ML CAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
SPC`S DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS THE SE HALF OF PENN...BUT
UPGRADED FAR SERN PENN (INCLUDING YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES) TO
A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMING IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ATTRIBUTED TO
30-50 KT WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING. MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN.
TOTAL FCST RAINFALL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY WAS PAINTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN A GEFS/SREF
BLEND ACROSS APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE 6
HOURLY TOTALS THAT OCCURRED WITH THE MCS NOW TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND FAR NWRN OHIO.
COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS
THERE ONLY REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL
BE SEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST...07Z HRRR IMPLIES THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE I-76/78 CORRIDOR BEFORE DUSK...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND TSRA NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE INTO THIS EVENING.
A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATO CU SHOULD
FOLLOW THE CFROPA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND HELPS TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED LOOKS DRY AND COOLER...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.
A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME
RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.
STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.
MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.
CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THIS MORNING...
BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
IN SCT SHOWERS/VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NW PORTIONS AFTER 09Z AS WESTERLY LLJET
SWINGS THROUGH.
EXPECT A BIT OF A MINIMUM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MID/LATE
MORNING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY EXPAND OVER CENTRAL MTNS
AND EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MORE UNSTABLE
AIR PUSHES NE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
PRECIP WILL END FROM NW TO SE...EXITING THE LOWER SUSQ SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WED. LOWERING CIGS WILL SAG IN FROM THE
NORTH...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.
SAT...FAIR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOST FAVORABLE
FOR MAINTENANCE OF THIS MCS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY OVERLAPS THE WEAKEST
CAPPING. LOW LEVEL (0-3KM) CAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 100 J/KG...WITH
SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED AROUND 30 KTS THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...850-700MB
CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS STRONGER. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT AS CAPPING OVERWHELMS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING.
ATTENTION WILL TURN WESTWARD BY LATER TONIGHT AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON MOVE EAST AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY ADVANCE INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT MAY
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT IMPACTS
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN
1000 J/KG...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A
LOW LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD UNDERGO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES IN ADDITION TO A FEW MEMBERS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO THE WEST OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7.0 C/KM...AND LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY...THEN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WOULD BE SEVERE. THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
SECONDARY WAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
RECOVER AND THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL WITH 40 KTS MAINTAINED AROUND 5KFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY ALSO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY BACKED
NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 200
M2/S2. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LEVELS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW VERY LARGE HAIL REPORTS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THESE THREATS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THEY SAG ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
WEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN AGAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
CURRENTLY...A MCS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THE MCS MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND 00Z. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO TAFS. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS WORDING AT KJBR BEGINNING AT 2Z WITH A TEMPO
BETWEEN 2Z-6Z FOR TSRAS WITH LOW VSBYS/CIGS. ALSO...THINK WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THEN TO NE AND EVENTUALLY TO SE BEHIND
THE CONVECTION. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR INITIALLY. BEST
TIMING FOR KMKL WILL BE BETWEEN 3Z-7Z WHILE FOR KMEM IT WILL BE
BETWEEN 4Z-7Z. DO NOT THINK THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE INTO INTO
KTUP AS THE RIDGE WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER NE MS.
ALTHOUGH...BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL COVER THE AREA. AFTER
7Z...CONFIDENCE DWINDLES DRASTICALLY AS ATMOSPHERE MAY BE WORKED
OVER. ALSO...UNSURE IF THERE WILL BE A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
FROM THE WEST AS PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THE LINE FALLING APART POSSIBLY BECAUSE IT IS MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE GREAT PLAINS HAS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OUT EAST OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE HELPED
GENERATE A STRONG MCS ACROSS MO AND SOUTHERN IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THAT CONVECTION LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF HAVE DECENT
QPF OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING...SO UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING FOR SOME QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK A BIT ON PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...SO BACKED OFF A BIT DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY BASICALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIP TIMING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH SOME
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST OF I65 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH HIGHER PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS CATCH UP BY 03Z. FOR THE MOST
PART...I65 AND WEST WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP BEFORE 03Z...AND EAST
WILL SEE HIGHER PRECIP AFTER 03Z.
LOOKING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW...THE SPC HAS THE SLIGHT
RISK MAINLY ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH A MARGINAL
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE DIURNAL SUPPORT LACKING AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...MUCAPE
VALUES ARE DECENT AT AROUND 1500-1700 J/KG ON AVERAGE. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AT AROUND 40 KNOTS.
LONG STORY SHORT THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH SOME EARLY STRONGER CELLS. IF STORMS GET TO THE AREA
EARLIER...POTENTIAL WILL BE A BIT BETTER AS THE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 00Z...AND COMBINED WITH THE BETTER LAPSE
RATES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY SHOULD STORMS
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE PLATEAU REGION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY DRY ACROSS THE MID STATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE
PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPIN FOR A BIT OVER THE PLAINS AND EJECT
SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO CALL. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IT LOOKS TO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE HOWEVER THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE MID-STATE...
JUST AFTER 00Z FOR KCKV AND AN HOUR OR TWO LATER FOR KBNA. THIS
WILL DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR/IFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD THEN JUST MVFR
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS BEHIND THE LINE. KCSV
IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS THE LINE WON`T LIKELY BE AS INTENSE FOR
THEIR TERMINAL. WILL COVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND LIKELY NWLY WITH THE TS THIS EVENING
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY WEAK AND SWLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 65 84 64 84 58 / 50 50 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 64 80 62 81 57 / 70 60 60 10 10
CROSSVILLE 62 79 63 78 58 / 40 50 70 40 10
COLUMBIA 64 83 63 82 57 / 40 50 60 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 63 83 63 82 58 / 40 50 60 30 10
WAVERLY 63 81 62 82 57 / 70 60 60 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........UNGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX
OUT BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS.
REVIEW OF THE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER CAPPING
WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER TO THE SOUTHWEST (KLZK...KSHV). THE
CAPPING IS WEAKER TO THE NORTHEAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z KOHX
SOUNDING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND
PROPAGATING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SBCAPES RISING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND LI/S AROUND -8C. AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING...A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CAPPING NEGATIVELY INFLUENCES CONVECTION. PLAN TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK MENTION FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY BY LATE EVENING PRIOR TO REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE SENT
OUT SHORTLY.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH PATCHY
STRATOCU IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS STARTING TO BLEED INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH. THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
CONVECTION...STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT ARE FORMING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE COMPARED TO THE HRRR MODEL.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE CLOSEST TRIGGER TO INITIATE STORMS WILL
LIE WITH HOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION IN MISSOURI UNFOLDS.
HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONG ENOUGH AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS COULD
FIRE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...OF WHICH SOME COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED CAPE. FOR NOW WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL ON TO THE
DAYCREW. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MARCHES EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE LINKED
TO THE SUPPORTING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY NOON. AFTER WHICH QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THUS THE ABILITY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SOMEWHAT RELOAD. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER WAVE SWINGING
THROUGH THE OZARKS IN THE 26/0Z TO 26/06Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL HAVE WEAKEN ATT...ALONG
WITH RISING HEIGHT FALLS...AS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGIN FILLING. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO NEAR 8C...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY INITIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
A CONTINUANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SURGING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BACK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENERALLY WET PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK...AND TIMING
AS THE CURRENT FRONT RANGE LOW. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN JET
CORRIDOR FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY SEVERE APPEAR
FAVORABLE...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET
CURRENTLY...A MCS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THE MCS MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND 00Z. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO TAFS. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS WORDING AT KJBR BEGINNING AT 2Z WITH A TEMPO
BETWEEN 2Z-6Z FOR TSRAS WITH LOW VSBYS/CIGS. ALSO...THINK WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NW THEN TO NE AND EVENTUALLY TO SE BEHIND
THE CONVECTION. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR INITIALLY. BEST
TIMING FOR KMKL WILL BE BETWEEN 3Z-7Z WHILE FOR KMEM IT WILL BE
BETWEEN 4Z-7Z. DO NOT THINK THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE INTO INTO
KTUP AS THE RIDGE WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER NE MS.
ALTHOUGH...BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL COVER THE AREA. AFTER
7Z...CONFIDENCE DWINDLES DRASTICALLY AS ATMOSPHERE MAY BE WORKED
OVER. ALSO...UNSURE IF THERE WILL BE A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
FROM THE WEST AS PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
THE LINE FALLING APART POSSIBLY BECAUSE IT IS MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX
OUT BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS.
REVIEW OF THE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER CAPPING
WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER TO THE SOUTHWEST (KLZK...KSHV). THE
CAPPING IS WEAKER TO THE NORTHEAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z KOHX
SOUNDING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND
PROPAGATING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SBCAPES RISING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND LI/S AROUND -8C. AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING...A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CAPPING NEGATIVELY INFLUENCES CONVECTION. PLAN TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK MENTION FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY BY LATE EVENING PRIOR TO REACHING
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE SENT
OUT SHORTLY.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH PATCHY
STRATOCU IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS STARTING TO BLEED INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH. THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
CONVECTION...STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT ARE FORMING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE COMPARED TO THE HRRR MODEL.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE CLOSEST TRIGGER TO INITIATE STORMS WILL
LIE WITH HOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION IN MISSOURI UNFOLDS.
HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONG ENOUGH AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS COULD
FIRE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...OF WHICH SOME COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED CAPE. FOR NOW WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL ON TO THE
DAYCREW. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MARCHES EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE LINKED
TO THE SUPPORTING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY NOON. AFTER WHICH QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THUS THE ABILITY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SOMEWHAT RELOAD. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER WAVE SWINGING
THROUGH THE OZARKS IN THE 26/0Z TO 26/06Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL HAVE WEAKEN ATT...ALONG
WITH RISING HEIGHT FALLS...AS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGIN FILLING. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO NEAR 8C...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY INITIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
A CONTINUANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SURGING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BACK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENERALLY WET PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK...AND TIMING
AS THE CURRENT FRONT RANGE LOW. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN JET
CORRIDOR FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY SEVERE APPEAR
FAVORABLE...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 8-12KT TODAY...LIKELY
REMAINING AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
INCLUDED VCTS AT MKL AND MEM AFTER 10Z WITH CIGS OF 4000FT. STORMS
LOOK LIKELY A BIT EARLIER AT JBR...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 07Z.
INCLUDED PREVAILING -TSRA WITH 3SM VIS AFTER 10Z. CIGS SHOULD BE
AROUND 4000FT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH PATCHY
STRATOCU IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS STARTING TO BLEED INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH. THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
CONVECTION...STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT ARE FORMING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE COMPARED TO THE HRRR MODEL.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE CLOSEST TRIGGER TO INITIATE STORMS WILL
LIE WITH HOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION IN MISSOURI UNFOLDS.
HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONG ENOUGH AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS COULD
FIRE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...OF WHICH SOME COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED CAPE. FOR NOW WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL ON TO THE
DAYCREW. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MARCHES EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE LINKED
TO THE SUPPORTING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY NOON. AFTER WHICH QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THUS THE ABILITY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SOMEWHAT RELOAD. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER WAVE SWINGING
THROUGH THE OZARKS IN THE 26/0Z TO 26/06Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL HAVE WEAKEN ATT...ALONG
WITH RISING HEIGHT FALLS...AS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGIN FILLING. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO NEAR 8C...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY INITIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
A CONTINUANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SURGING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BACK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENERALLY WET PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK...AND TIMING
AS THE CURRENT FRONT RANGE LOW. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN JET
CORRIDOR FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY SEVERE APPEAR
FAVORABLE...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 8-12KT TODAY...LIKELY
REMAINING AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
INCLUDED VCTS AT MKL AND MEM AFTER 10Z WITH CIGS OF 4000FT. STORMS
LOOK LIKELY A BIT EARLIER AT JBR...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 07Z.
INCLUDED PREVAILING -TSRA WITH 3SM VIS AFTER 10Z. CIGS SHOULD BE
AROUND 4000FT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH PATCHY
STRATOCU IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS STARTING TO BLEED INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH. THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
CONVECTION...STORMS NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT ARE FORMING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE COMPARED TO THE HRRR MODEL.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STORM IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND CAPE VALUES NEAR
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER THE CLOSEST TRIGGER TO INITIATE STORMS WILL
LIE WITH HOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION IN MISSOURI UNFOLDS.
HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A STRONG ENOUGH AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS COULD
FIRE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES...OF WHICH SOME COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED CAPE. FOR NOW WILL PASS THE POTENTIAL ON TO THE
DAYCREW. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION MARCHES EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE LINKED
TO THE SUPPORTING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE. MODELS SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER BY NOON. AFTER WHICH QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND THUS THE ABILITY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SOMEWHAT RELOAD. MODELS SHOW A WEAKER WAVE SWINGING
THROUGH THE OZARKS IN THE 26/0Z TO 26/06Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL HAVE WEAKEN ATT...ALONG
WITH RISING HEIGHT FALLS...AS BOTH THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGIN FILLING. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO NEAR 8C...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. LOWS IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY INITIALLY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
A CONTINUANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SURGING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BACK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENERALLY WET PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK...AND TIMING
AS THE CURRENT FRONT RANGE LOW. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN JET
CORRIDOR FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY SEVERE APPEAR
FAVORABLE...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS ONGOING WILL PERSIST THE ENTIRE CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR
AS SFC RETURN FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE QUICKLY ERODING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITHIN
THE HOUR. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THINK THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE AFTER ABOUT 03Z...BUT CONVECTION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS
23Z. CONVECTION SHOULD LOWER CATEGORY TO MVFR. AFTER CONVECTION
CLEARS CIGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY AT DRT AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM AUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE ABOVE 900MB WITH A WARM NOSE AROUND 22.5 DEG C.
THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 12Z FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS...WITH THE 12Z NAM12 FORECAST BUFR SOUNDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
(4PM-7PM) AS THE TAIL END OF INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEXAS TECH 4KM AND HRRR HI RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION DURING
THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME...AND WAIT MORE ON THE FORCING WITH THE
DRYLINE/FRONT AFTER 06Z (1AM). BUT THE NMM/ARW/NAM12/GFS ARE
SHOWING A POSSIBLE SIGNAL 21Z-03Z (4PM-10PM).
SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA AND I-35 CORRIDOR...FORECAST SOUNDING CAPE VALUES ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THIS AREA...AROUND 4000-4500 J/KG...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW POCKETS EVEN HIGHER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF NEAR 50 KTS COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CAPE VALUES WILL
EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY DOWNBURST THREAT PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE DCAPE VALUES. THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW THIS FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AS LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL SIZED.
THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POSSIBLE BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTH ALONG THE SURGING DRY LINE/FRONT.
MODELS STILL SHOW POCKET OF CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG POOLED RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ALSO THROUGH
THE HILL COUNTRY. UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
THE BROKEN LINE UNZIPS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
SAN ANTONIO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 90 64 87 71 / 60 10 - 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 89 62 87 70 / 60 10 - 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 90 63 87 71 / 60 10 - 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 89 61 86 68 / 60 10 - 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 91 63 92 71 / 10 0 0 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 89 62 86 70 / 60 10 - 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 91 61 90 71 / 50 - - 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 62 87 71 / 60 10 - 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 88 66 87 72 / 60 30 - 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 91 64 88 72 / 60 10 - 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 91 65 90 73 / 60 10 - 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK AND PATCHY HAZE/FOG ARE
CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR
COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE KEPT VCTS FOR ALI TAF.
LATE TONIGHT TSRA CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE NE CWA THUS KEPT THE
PROB30 FOR VCT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
CRP...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS FOR LRD ARE EXPECTED TO GO MORE
W THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SHIFTS E...THEN BECOMES SE ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING N TOWARD WED MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING WAS A TAD DRIER AND MORE CAPPED
THAN PREVIOUS 24HRS. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TODAY DUE TO THE
VERY STRONG CAP...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CONVECTION COULD
DVLP...AND IF IT DOES...COULD BE SVR DUE TO THE HIGH CAPE VALUES
(3500-4000J/KG) AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS
MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS WITH A 20 POP. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS.
OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS WL GRADUALLY LIFT BY NOON TDA ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH TX. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT WL OCCUR ACROSS
KALI...KCRP AND KVCT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
GENERALLY FROM KALI NORTHWARD BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. MVFR STRATUS
WL REDEVELOP QUICKLY AS EARLY AS 23Z AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. A WEAKENING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WL AFFECT SOUTH TX BY 09Z IN ADVANCE OF A
SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT WL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE WL BE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED CONVECTION WL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY MAINLY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z TDA. MUCAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE CIN WL LINE UP IN
THE VCNTY OF A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE STRETCHING FROM CHOKE
CANYON RESERVOIR TO ALICE. WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FAVORABLE FACTORS MENTIONED. THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING CAP. IN
FACT MOST AREAS WL REMAIN DRY TDA GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP IN
EXCESS OF 150-200 J/KG.
A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX
TNT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPR CLOSED LOW EMERGING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS MCS WL LKLY AFFECT OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP AND THE FACT
THAT MOST OF THE MAIN FORCING WL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
NERN PORTION OF THE CWA WL STILL WARRANT CHC POPS WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. WL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
THE EASTERN AREAS ON WED AFTN AS THE ACTUAL FRONT WL LKLY STALL
ALONG THIS SAME AREA WITH CAPES OF AT LEAST 3000 J/KG.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS THIS HAS PERFORMED
BETTER OF LATE ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOW`S
CYCLE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THURSDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN AS A SERIES OF WEAK S/W`S EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERN JETSTREAM INTERACT WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CAPES ARE PROGGED >2500 J/KG AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP SHOULD BREAK ALONG THE NWD
RETREATING SFC BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS MAKING FOR NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCA`S EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF WATERS FRI-SAT.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
ON SATURDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND...NEAR THE TAIL END OF A LONG CONVECTIVE
LINE. H85 WINDS TURN SW-WLY IN THE AFTN AS THE BINDERY MOVES
IN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE WWD EXTEND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
CWA.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUIET. THEN ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH
THE GFS/EC INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE...ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS
FOR MOST OF TDA GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCEC
CONDITIONS WL EXIST ELSW. OFFSHORE WATERS WL APPROACH MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS TNT. ONSHORE FLOW WL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST AND WEAKENS THE OVERALL GRADIENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE WEAKENING MCS/OUTFLOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 74 92 72 86 / 10 20 20 10 20
VICTORIA 86 71 90 69 87 / 10 40 30 10 20
LAREDO 101 71 100 71 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 95 72 96 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 30
ROCKPORT 85 74 89 73 83 / 10 20 30 10 20
COTULLA 99 68 95 66 94 / 20 20 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 92 74 95 72 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 75 87 74 83 / 10 20 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Based on analysis of latest short-term models and the latest SPC
Day 1 Outlook, we decided to expand at least 20 PoPs west to
include all our counties. The latest HRRR indicates convection
will begin across our western counties mid afternoon. Also, all
our counties now have severe thunderstorms possible wording for
the remainder of this afternoon.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
.Strong to severe thunderstorms expected today...
A potent shortwave trough is moving east across the Four Corners
early this morning, with strong southwesterly flow aloft
overspreading the southern Plains. Moistening is noted on the
water vapor channel over southeast NM, indicating the arrival of
large scale forcing for ascent. Point soundings indicate that a
cap will persist through early/mid afternoon, but the
aforementioned synoptic scale ascent will erode the cap by 21z.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected to develop east of
the dryline, rapidly intensifying as it moves northeast. The big
question mark is where the dryline will set up this afternoon. The
models have performed poorly the past few days with the low-level
moisture and today will probably be no exception.
The dryline is forecast to be near a San Angelo-Haskell line by
18z, moving a bit farther east (roughly along a line from Fort
McKavett, to Ballinger, to Abilene) by 21z. East of the dryline,
the environment will be conducive to explosive supercell
development. MLCAPE values on the order of 3000-3500 J/kg are
possible with 0-6km shear exceeding 40 kts. Steep mid-level lapse
rates result in big, fat CAPE profiles, supportive of very large
hail. Storms should remain discrete initially, limiting the severe
weather threat in area. In addition, a few tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. However, this potential will likely be limited to the
far eastern zones where LCL heights will be below 1500 meters.
The dryline should begin to retreat around sunset but it is not
expected to move west of the CWA like we have seen previous
evenings. An eastward moving Pacific cold front will overtake the
retreating dryline, shoving low-level moisture and ongoing
convection east toward I-35 after sunset. Thunderstorms may grow
upscale into an MCS as the cold front moves across the CWA this
evening, developing as far west as a San Angelo-Abilene line. The
severe weather threat will persist through the evening hours, with
precipitation tapering off after midnight. Temperatures today will
warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees with lows tonight in the
low to mid 50s.
Johnson
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Wednesday Night)
Looks like a dry forecast for the first 24 hours of the extended
forecast. The combination of low level dry air and mainly zonal
flow aloft will result in quiet and dry weather. Warm
temperatures are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s.
(Thursday through Tuesday)
There will a chance of showers and thunderstorms through much of
this time frame. Temperatures will remain warm through this
weekend and finally cooling off by early next week. An upper level
trough over the southwest US at 12Z Thursday will move northeast
across the southern Plains Thursday night and Friday. At the
surface, a warm front will move north across much of West Central
Texas by Thursday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably
develop Thursday afternoon and storms will become scattered in
coverage Thursday night across much of the area. The combination
of upper level dynamics and moderate elevated instability may
result in a few severe storms mainly Thursday night. The main
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Showers and
thunderstorms continue Friday(have likely Pops over the eastern
1/3 of the area)as a pacific cold front/dryline moves east across
West Central Texas. A few strong to severe storms are possible
over much of area. There will be a chance of showers and storms
over the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and
Heartland Friday night as upper level disturbances move northeast
with some elevated instability for assistance. Looks like most of
the weekend will be dry, then the next upper level short wave
trough will move east- northeast across Texas early next week and
a cold front will move south across West Central Texas Sunday
night and Monday morning. As a result, there is another chance of
rain Sunday night through Monday night. Highs will be mainly in
the 80s through this weekend, cooling into the 70s for early next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 55 85 57 88 / 20 5 0 20
San Angelo 52 88 55 90 / 20 5 0 20
Junction 53 88 52 88 / 60 5 0 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM AUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE ABOVE 900MB WITH A WARM NOSE AROUND 22.5 DEG C.
THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 12Z FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS...WITH THE 12Z NAM12 FORECAST BUFR SOUNDING SLIGHTLY WARMER.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BETWEEN 21Z-00Z
(4PM-7PM) AS THE TAIL END OF INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEXAS TECH 4KM AND HRRR HI RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION DURING
THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME...AND WAIT MORE ON THE FORCING WITH THE
DRYLINE/FRONT AFTER 06Z (1AM). BUT THE NMM/ARW/NAM12/GFS ARE
SHOWING A POSSIBLE SIGNAL 21Z-03Z (4PM-10PM).
SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA AND I-35 CORRIDOR...FORECAST SOUNDING CAPE VALUES ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THIS AREA...AROUND 4000-4500 J/KG...WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW POCKETS EVEN HIGHER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF NEAR 50 KTS COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CAPE VALUES WILL
EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY DOWNBURST THREAT PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE DCAPE VALUES. THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW THIS FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED AS LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL SIZED.
THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POSSIBLE BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTH ALONG THE SURGING DRY LINE/FRONT.
MODELS STILL SHOW POCKET OF CAPE 3500-4000 J/KG POOLED RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ALSO THROUGH
THE HILL COUNTRY. UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
THE BROKEN LINE UNZIPS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS
SAN ANTONIO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 66 90 64 87 / 30 60 10 - 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 66 89 62 87 / 30 60 10 - 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 90 63 87 / 20 60 10 - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 89 61 86 / 30 60 10 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 61 91 63 92 / 10 10 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 63 89 62 86 / 30 60 10 - 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 62 91 61 90 / 20 50 - - 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 89 62 87 / 20 60 10 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 88 66 87 / 10 60 30 - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 65 91 64 88 / 20 60 10 - 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 91 65 90 / 20 60 10 - 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN UTAH AT MIDNIGHT TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DRIVING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. RECENT
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HIGHER WINDS REFLECTED IN TAF FORECASTS AS
WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT KLBB
AND KPVW ESPECIALLY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT STRATUS DECK NEARING
KCDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH SOLUTIONS STILL DO NOT SHOW THIS
LAYER MOVING AS FAR WEST AS KCDS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN NOTABLY IN THE COMING 24 HOURS AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. ADDED A PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY FOR
KLBB AND KPVW FOR A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THAT TIME
WITH MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AS WELL. WILL ADDRESS KCDS WIND
ISSUES FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE. TONIGHT WE EXPECT A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY TUESDAY. APPEARS RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS MAY
BE OVERDOING FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT SINCE WE ARE
SEEING LITTLE TO NOTHING DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME.
BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ALSO WATCHING
FOR DRY-LINE RETREAT INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS LATER TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE CHANCE STILL OF
STRATUS AS FAR WEST AS KCDS SO WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF
FEW020 AT KCDS. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND A FEW LOWER
90S...BEING REPORTED AREA-WIDE AT 3 PM. OFF TO OUR WEST...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LOWER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE
DRYLINE BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME
LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE DRYLINE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET
EMERGES OVER WEST TEXAS. A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 40S...AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/HIGHWAY 87. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST APPEARS LIKELY AS MAY FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING PLOWED
FOR SPRING PLANTING. COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER ON THE CAPROCK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
TUE NIGHT/WED...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TUE INTO WED. DRY AIR WILL CONT IN PLACE WITH SURFACE GRADIENT
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MODERATE WLY WINDS
DECREASING AFTER 21Z. DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION IN
WRN OK AND NW TEXAS. MINIMAL FORCING AS WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP SFC TEMPS WARM AND CLOUD COVER TO
MINIMUM.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...A RETREATING DRY LINE AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
WILL MATERIALIZE AS UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EWD TO CENTRAL AZ WITH
ENERGETIC UPR TROUGH APPROACHING W TX. WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO PANHANDLE TOWARD 12Z THUR. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AFTER A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD RETREAT
IN THE AFTERNOON. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SOME GULF
MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS FARTHER WEST.
SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE
POINT...BUT THAT COULD BE FARTHER NORTH OR NE OF FA...AND ATMOSPHERE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE.
CERTAINLY RISK OF SEVERE THURSDAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY...IF TIMING OF GFS/ECM IS TO BE BELIEVED...LOW
CLOUDS/HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO RETURN WWD INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MODERATE FORCING ALOFT. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SURGE EAST AS
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH TROF MOVE ACROSS AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY EARLY...BUT DRYLINE MAY BE EAST
OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON FRI. EXTREME ERN COUNTIES MOST
LIKELY TO HAVE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCE THEN.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT
COULD ENTER THE PICTURE LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY...WITH MODELS NOT
OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAIN COVERAGE. NEXT LOW ATTM WILL DIG INTO
SRN AZ WITH BRIEF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING LIKELY LATE SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUGGEST MODERATE/STRONG FORCING
IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DIFLUENT NEG TILTED UPR TROF
APPROACHING WITHIN LARGE SCALE REX BLOCK/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL US. COOL NE SURFACE FLOW CONTG WITH CLOUDY...COOL
WEATHER. PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...KEEPING CHANCE OF RAIN IN FCST ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPS...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE APRIL...A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS...THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF METEOROLOGICAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE RECENT GREEN-UP OF GRASSES...REFLECTED IN LOW ERC
VALUES...MEANS THAT FUELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY RESPONSIVE TO FIRE
STARTS. ERC VALUES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THOUGH DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE DANGER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE STATE OF THE FUELS...BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
ISSUED FOR THE SITUATION TUESDAY.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
907 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
STALLING. WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING OVER THE REGION...PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ON
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A COUPLE CORRIDORS THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WITHIN A GRADIENT OF
HIGHER THETA-E. THIS SOUTHERN AREA ALSO AIDED BY SOME LINGERING
WEAK CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTH BY MORNING. FOR
NOW APPEARS WILL SEE CURRENT MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING COVERAGE
HANG ON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH GET WELL WORKED OVER. HOWEVER BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION
OFF TO THE WEST IN KY/TN COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA LATE BUT
THIS REMAINS IFFY PER VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH AN AXIS OF MORE LIKELY NATURE POPS
SOUTH AND TAPER ELSEWHERE TO LOWER CHANCE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
MOUNTAINS LATE. LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK AS ONLY EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FALLS UNTIL THE FRONT OOZES IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTRW MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..
AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWED MLCAPES TO REACH
ABOVE 500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DCAPES FROM 500-700
J/KG MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT WITH A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SEVERAL MESOSCALE
MODELS BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST TOWARD DAWN
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH...THERE MAY BE WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST THAT LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST...LIKE LYH...WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
WEDGE AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS 60F OR HIGHER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED TOMORROW AS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SMALL THREAT
IN THE HWO.
TRIED TO CONVEY A BROADER RANGE IN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...GOING COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE EAST (LYH) AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT...FINALLY KICKING THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS STRONG WAVE CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO OHIO-PENNSYLVANIA. A SECOND WEAKER
WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS SECOND LOW WILL KEEP
HEAVY CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT TO
SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
AS MOISTURE EXITS EAST...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 5F-8F WARMER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY WITH RAIN FALLING
INTO A WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL
AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND
RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH MAY HANG OVER
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF.
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S. IF THE WEDGE EXITS
ON TIME...MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH NEAR 70F WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES
MAY TREND COOLER BASED ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST
ALONG AS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN SCATTERED THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING COVERAGE MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT KLWB AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF KBCB/KROA THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE EITHER A PREVAILING GROUP
THERE AND VCSH TO VCTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PENDING
TRENDS. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
TAPERING SHOWERS AFTER DARK ESPCLY WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN IFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT TO KLYH AND PERHAPS
TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT KBLF AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT DIPS
SOUTH BRINGING A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW
NATURE OF THE FRONT...WONT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS CURRENT GUIDANCE
THAT HAS MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KBLF IFR OR WORSE BY MORNING.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AT KLYH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
SPC WRF SOLUTIONS SO INCLUDED A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING.
WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING OVER THE REGION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ON
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..
AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWED MLCAPES TO REACH
ABOVE 500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DCAPES FROM 500-700
J/KG MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT WITH A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SEVERAL MESOSCALE
MODELS BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST TOWARD DAWN
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH...THERE MAY BE WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST THAT LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST...LIKE LYH...WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
WEDGE AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS 60F OR HIGHER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED TOMORROW AS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SMALL THREAT
IN THE HWO.
TRIED TO CONVEY A BROADER RANGE IN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...GOING COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE EAST (LYH) AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT...FINALLY KICKING THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS STRONG WAVE CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO OHIO-PENNSYLVANIA. A SECOND WEAKER
WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME
THE DOMINATE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS SECOND LOW WILL KEEP
HEAVY CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT TO
SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
AS MOISTURE EXITS EAST...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 5F-8F WARMER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY WITH RAIN FALLING
INTO A WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL
AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND
RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH MAY HANG OVER
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF.
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S. IF THE WEDGE EXITS
ON TIME...MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH NEAR 70F WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES
MAY TREND COOLER BASED ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST
ALONG AS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN SCATTERED THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING COVERAGE MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT KLWB AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTHWEST OF KBCB/KROA THIS
EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE EITHER A PREVAILING GROUP
THERE AND VCSH TO VCTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PENDING
TRENDS. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
TAPERING SHOWERS AFTER DARK ESPCLY WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MVFR AND
PERHAPS EVEN IFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT TO KLYH AND PERHAPS
TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT KBLF AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT DIPS
SOUTH BRINGING A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW
NATURE OF THE FRONT...WONT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS CURRENT GUIDANCE
THAT HAS MOST LOCATIONS EXCLUDING KBLF IFR OR WORSE BY MORNING.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AT KLYH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR AND
SPC WRF SOLUTIONS SO INCLUDED A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
159 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED
BEFORE REACHING INTO THE NRN PORTION ON OUR FCST AREA...HOWEVER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE OVER CENTRAL WV IS NOW STARTING TO
FIRE...AND NEW RUNS OF HI RES WRF...ESPECIALLY ARW CORE...SEEM TO
HAVE THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT DEVELOPING QUITE FAST ENOUGH.
HRRR ALSO NOT AS QUICK TO DEVELOP THIS...SO BY THE TIME IT DOES
AROUND 20 UTC OR SO IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH IT. THIS
ALL MAKES FOR TRICKY TIMING OF WHEN THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
REACH GREENBRIER COUNTY...BUT WITH MANY MODELS STILL PRETTY SLOW
ON THIS INTO THE EVENING...HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR ITS
ARRIVAL AROUND 20 OR 21 UTC...AND THEN NOT TO THE U.S. 460 LINE
UNTIL 00 UTC OR LATER. ALSO LESS AND LESS CHANCE OF MUCH OF
ANYTHING GETTING GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THIS GIVEN DRI
AIR ALOFT AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD EARLY...SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC EXCEPT FOR VERY HIGHEST MTNS WITH LOW CHC POP.
SO FAR SFC-BASED CAPE PRETTY LIMITED LARGELY THANKS TO EARLIER
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND EARLY START TO CU FIELD.
THIS COULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH LATER ARRIVAL TIME
NOW MAINLY INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...PRIMARILY WIND
THREAT...STILL POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NRN WEST VIRGINIA...AND MAY BRUSH
THE FAR NRN PORTION OF OUR FCST AREA BETWEEN 11AM AND NOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHWRS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...AND THESE WOULD BE
CONFINED TO MTNS...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460. ONE OR TWO OF THE
CONVECTIVE RESOLVING MODELS DO SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO AT LEAST THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY LATE EVENING...BUT
AM SKEPTICAL OF THESE ARE WILL AWAIT 12Z UPDATES TO SOME OF THESE
BEFORE REFINING FORECAST FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED POPS
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THES SCATTERED
STORMS. STILL EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF 460
AND MAINLY WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MOST LIKELY
CONCERN GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT DOWNDRAFTS AND MODEST LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION. CANNOT
RULE OUT A HAIL THREAT BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL HELP WITH MELTING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/8PM...WHILE THE
850MB FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POOLING OF
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN LARGER CAPE. 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF HAVE A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
18Z/2PM. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER UNTIL
AROUND 00Z/8PM. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT REACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS AND MILD DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE WESTERN TROF
SPLINTERS INTO PIECES WITH SEVERAL BITS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING. AND
WITHOUT SOLID UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT ALONG...THE FRONTAL ZONE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SIMPLY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
KEEP UP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A SHORT WAVE REMNANT OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL SWING BY
TO OUR NORTH AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND ALLOW A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE
MARGINAL SINCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM.
HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN
OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL
FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERN OHIO
BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD. BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME AT KLWB AROUND 22
UTC...THEN KBLF...KBCB...KROA...KLYH AROUND 00 UTC PLUS OR MINUS
AN HOUR...THEN LESS CERTAIN THAT THESE WILL EVER GET TO KDAN BUT
LEANING TOWARD THEY EVENTUALLY WILL BUT MORE AROUND 02 UTC AND MAY
NOT EVEN BE THUNDER AT THAT POINT BUT SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE. LESS LIKELY TO SEE SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAN AS WELL.
THUNDER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD
LINGER...ESPECIALLY AT WESTERN TAF SITES...AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS
MAY EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLY AT KLWB AND KBLF...ESPECIALLY IF
SHOWERS MOVE AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PREVAILING
IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOST CONCERNED ABOUT KLWB LATE TONIGHT. IF
SHOWERS MOVE OUT COULD EASILY GET IFR FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE WEST BY MORNING AND RECENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT THIS COULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE
WEST...AND INCLUDED THOSE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KBLF...KLWB...AND KBCB...ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS FAR AS WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...GUSTING TO 15 KTS OR
SO REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHTER TONIGHT EXCEPT
FRO NEAR ANY STORMS...WHICH COULD BRING THEM TO NORTHWEST OR
NORTH GUSTING BRIEFLY TO 25 OR 30 KTS. MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS BACK TO WEST. BY EARLY WED BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY ARRIVE AT KLYH FOR A NORTHEAST WIND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS MAY NOT GET TO ANY OTHER TAF SITES UNTIL LATE IN DAY OR
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN REMAIN STALLED OR SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER
FRONT OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/SK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/DS/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED
BEFORE REACHING INTO THE NRN PORTION ON OUR FCST AREA...HOWEVER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE OVER CENTRAL WV IS NOW STARTING TO
FIRE...AND NEW RUNS OF HI RES WRF...ESPECIALLY ARW CORE...SEEM TO
HAVE THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT DEVELOPING QUITE FAST ENOUGH.
HRRR ALSO NOT AS QUICK TO DEVELOP THIS...SO BY THE TIME IT DOES
AROUND 20 UTC OR SO IT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH IT. THIS
ALL MAKES FOR TRICKY TIMING OF WHEN THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
REACH GREENBRIER COUNTY...BUT WITH MANY MODELS STILL PRETTY SLOW
ON THIS INTO THE EVENING...HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR ITS
ARRIVAL AROUND 20 OR 21 UTC...AND THEN NOT TO THE U.S. 460 LINE
UNTIL 00 UTC OR LATER. ALSO LESS AND LESS CHANCE OF MUCH OF
ANYTHING GETTING GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THIS GIVEN DRI
AIR ALOFT AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD EARLY...SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC EXCEPT FOR VERY HIGHEST MTNS WITH LOW CHC POP.
SO FAR SFC-BASED CAPE PRETTY LIMITED LARGELY THANKS TO EARLIER
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND EARLY START TO CU FIELD.
THIS COULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH LATER ARRIVAL TIME
NOW MAINLY INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...PRIMARILY WIND
THREAT...STILL POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NRN WEST VIRGINIA...AND MAY BRUSH
THE FAR NRN PORTION OF OUR FCST AREA BETWEEN 11AM AND NOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHWRS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...AND THESE WOULD BE
CONFINED TO MTNS...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460. ONE OR TWO OF THE
CONVECTIVE RESOLVING MODELS DO SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO AT LEAST THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY LATE EVENING...BUT
AM SKEPTICAL OF THESE ARE WILL AWAIT 12Z UPDATES TO SOME OF THESE
BEFORE REFINING FORECAST FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED POPS
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THES SCATTERED
STORMS. STILL EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF 460
AND MAINLY WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MOST LIKELY
CONCERN GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT DOWNDRAFTS AND MODEST LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION. CANNOT
RULE OUT A HAIL THREAT BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL HELP WITH MELTING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/8PM...WHILE THE
850MB FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POOLING OF
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN LARGER CAPE. 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF HAVE A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
18Z/2PM. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER UNTIL
AROUND 00Z/8PM. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT REACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS AND MILD DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE WESTERN TROF
SPLINTERS INTO PIECES WITH SEVERAL BITS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING. AND
WITHOUT SOLID UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT ALONG...THE FRONTAL ZONE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SIMPLY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
KEEP UP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A SHORT WAVE REMNANT OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL SWING BY
TO OUR NORTH AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND ALLOW A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE
MARGINAL SINCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM.
HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN
OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL
FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE LATE
MORNING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
MODELS BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
AREA AFTER 3PM IN KLWB AND NOT UNTIL 5PM AT KDAN. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT
OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/SK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1015 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NRN WEST VIRGINIA...AND MAY BRUSH
THE FAR NRN PORTION OF OUR FCST AREA BETWEEN 11AM AND NOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHWRS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...AND THESE WOULD BE
CONFINED TO MTNS...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460. ONE OR TWO OF THE
CONVECTIVE RESOLVING MODELS DO SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE WILL MAKE IT
DOWN TO AT LEAST THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY LATE EVENING...BUT
AM SKEPTICAL OF THESE ARE WILL AWAIT 12Z UPDATES TO SOME OF THESE
BEFORE REFINING FORECAST FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE REDUCED POPS
FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THES SCATTERED
STORMS. STILL EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF 460
AND MAINLY WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MOST LIKELY
CONCERN GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT TO SUPPORT DOWNDRAFTS AND MODEST LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION. CANNOT
RULE OUT A HAIL THREAT BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AND
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL HELP WITH MELTING.
PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/8PM...WHILE THE
850MB FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POOLING OF
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN LARGER CAPE. 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF HAVE A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
18Z/2PM. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER UNTIL
AROUND 00Z/8PM. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT REACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS AND MILD DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE WESTERN TROF
SPLINTERS INTO PIECES WITH SEVERAL BITS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING. AND
WITHOUT SOLID UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT ALONG...THE FRONTAL ZONE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SIMPLY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
KEEP UP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A SHORT WAVE REMNANT OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL SWING BY
TO OUR NORTH AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND ALLOW A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE
MARGINAL SINCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM.
HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN
OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL
FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE LATE
MORNING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
MODELS BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
AREA AFTER 3PM IN KLWB AND NOT UNTIL 5PM AT KDAN. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT
OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/8PM...WHILE THE
850MB FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POOLING OF
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN LARGER CAPE. 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF HAVE A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
18Z/2PM. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER UNTIL
AROUND 00Z/8PM. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT REACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS AND MILD DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE WESTERN TROF
SPLINTERS INTO PIECES WITH SEVERAL BITS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING. AND
WITHOUT SOLID UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT ALONG...THE FRONTAL ZONE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SIMPLY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
KEEP UP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A SHORT WAVE REMNANT OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL SWING BY
TO OUR NORTH AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND ALLOW A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE
MARGINAL SINCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM.
HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN
OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL
FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE LATE
MORNING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
MODELS BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
AREA AFTER 3PM IN KLWB AND NOT UNTIL 5PM AT KDAN. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND ON THE
OCCURRENCE OF AN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT
OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A FRONT INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z/8PM...WHILE THE
850MB FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. STARTING OUT WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY WAS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED POOLING OF
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN EVEN LARGER CAPE. 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF HAVE A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
18Z/2PM. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER UNTIL
AROUND 00Z/8PM. BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION AND JET SUPPORT REACH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM MONDAY FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS AND MILD DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE WESTERN TROF
SPLINTERS INTO PIECES WITH SEVERAL BITS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION INTERSPERSED WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY FLAT RIDGING. AND
WITHOUT SOLID UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT ALONG...THE FRONTAL ZONE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SIMPLY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
KEEP UP WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY
IT APPEARS THAT A SHORT WAVE REMNANT OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL SWING BY
TO OUR NORTH AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND ALLOW A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE
MARGINAL SINCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. AT THE SFC...12Z ECMWF KEEPS
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DURING THIS TIME...THESE FORECAST VALUES STILL MAY BE TOO
WARM.
HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF AN
OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT TYPICAL
FOR THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POPS ARE
HIGHEST.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM RHODE ISLAND TO MICHIGAN TO MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE LATE MORNING
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. MODELS BRING
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER
3PM IN KLWB AND NOT UNTIL 5PM AT KDAN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO
PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE. DURING THIS TIME...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...AMS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
LEAD BAND OF PCPN FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY DRY AIR AND
GETS STRETCHED IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE. DON/T THINK WE/LL GET MORE
THAN SPRINKLES TNGT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S/SW CORNER OF THE AREA
WHERE SOME PCPN HAS FINALLY MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. UPDATED
FCST ADJUSTED ALONG THESE LINES WAS SENT OUT ABOUT 5 MIN AGO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER IOWA/SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH. LIGHT RAIN IS
ARCING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NOT SHOWING MANY SIGNS
OF SLOWING DOWN. TO THE NORTH...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING
IN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...DRIVEN BY GUSTY EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS THIS VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NEBRASKA WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN ARCING
BAND OF PRECIP WITHIN A THETAE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI. BUT AS THIS BAND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB ORIGINATING
FROM A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE BONE DRY
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WI...WITH MODELS SHOWING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 10 PCT BETWEEN 925 AND 700MB. THE 12Z
MESOMODELS THEREFORE INDICATE THAT LEADING PRECIP BAND WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES
WOOD/PORTAGE/WAUSHARA COUNTIES. BUT SOME PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY EXPANDING TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACCORDING
TO PROGGED SOUNDINGS WOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z. A COOLING
THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN
LATE OVER CENTRAL WI. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY THWART PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING WHEN SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL
THROUGH 15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER
PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND GENERALLY WARMER OVER NORTHERN WI WHERE TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
ALTHOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND PV
ANOMALIES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAIRLY LOW WHEN THEY DO TRACK THROUGH. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRACK
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FINAL ONE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS WAS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS MODELS ARE NOT EXACTLY KEYING IN ON A UNANIMOUS SOLUTION
AS SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE TENUOUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS RIDING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. SOME COOL AIR COULD BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES GET ON A SLOW CLIMB FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
DRY AIR WINNING OUT THUS FAR...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
ACRS THE AREA. PCPN CHCS WL INCREASE SOME THURSDAY...BUT IT/S HARD
TO SEE MUCH PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE VERY DRY AIR THAT IS NOW AT
LOW LEVELS. PLAN TO STICK WITH PCPN FREE TAFS WITH THE 06Z
ISSUANCE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
836 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
LEAD BAND OF PCPN FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY DRY AIR AND
GETS STRETCHED IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE. DON/T THINK WE/LL GET MORE
THAN SPRINKLES TNGT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S/SW CORNER OF THE AREA
WHERE SOME PCPN HAS FINALLY MANAGED TO REACH THE GROUND. UPDATED
FCST ADJUSTED ALONG THESE LINES WAS SENT OUT ABOUT 5 MIN AGO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER IOWA/SOUTHERN IL/IN/OH. LIGHT RAIN IS
ARCING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NOT SHOWING MANY SIGNS
OF SLOWING DOWN. TO THE NORTH...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING
IN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...DRIVEN BY GUSTY EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS. AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS THIS VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NEBRASKA WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN ARCING
BAND OF PRECIP WITHIN A THETAE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI. BUT AS THIS BAND LIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB ORIGINATING
FROM A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE BONE DRY
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NORTHERN WI...WITH MODELS SHOWING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 10 PCT BETWEEN 925 AND 700MB. THE 12Z
MESOMODELS THEREFORE INDICATE THAT LEADING PRECIP BAND WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES
WOOD/PORTAGE/WAUSHARA COUNTIES. BUT SOME PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINS
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SLOWLY EXPANDING TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACCORDING
TO PROGGED SOUNDINGS WOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z. A COOLING
THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN
LATE OVER CENTRAL WI. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THE
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY THWART PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING WHEN SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL
THROUGH 15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER
PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND GENERALLY WARMER OVER NORTHERN WI WHERE TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
ALTHOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND PV
ANOMALIES...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAIRLY LOW WHEN THEY DO TRACK THROUGH. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO TRACK
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FINAL ONE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS WAS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER THESE SYSTEMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS MODELS ARE NOT EXACTLY KEYING IN ON A UNANIMOUS SOLUTION
AS SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE TENUOUS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS RIDING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. SOME COOL AIR COULD BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES GET ON A SLOW CLIMB FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR N PCPN WL ADVANCE INTO THE FCST AREA
TNGT. THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST IT
WL MAKE IT AT LEAST TO HWY 29. THE HI-RES AND SHRT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALMOST UNAMIMOUS IN PRETTY MUCH WIPING OUT THE CURRENT BAND OF
RAIN HEADING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SCT
SPRINLKLES LATER TNGT. RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BETTER SUPPORT THE
LATTER...AS PCPN BAND IS BEGINNING TO NARROW AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS
STRETCHED OUT IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE. VERY DRY AIR FLOWING SWWD
INTO THE AREA AT LOW-LEVELS ALSO FAVORS THE BAND WEAKENING. SO
WITH PRETTY MUCH JUST SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...OPTED TO REMOVED THE PCPN FM THE TAFS WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. MAY REINTRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF R- IF IT BECOMES
POSSIBLE TO BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THAT WOULD OCCUR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.AVIATION... 04/28/2016 06Z
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.UPDATE...
SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FORECAST AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST WED APR 27 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
A LINE OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER MOVING ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING THESE SHOWERS/TS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...REMAINING MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THU
AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER...THEN
BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW AZ. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT WILL BE TO BRING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF SE CA...WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. GIVEN
THESE UPDATED FORECASTS AND CURRENT SHORT-TERM TRENDS...INHERITED
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOUT 2-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TOP OUT
RIGHT NEAR FORECAST VALUES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SPORTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
TOWARD US TONIGHT RATHER QUICKLY AND MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY
TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY IMPACT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT NOR CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL SKIRT OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA TO WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SREF OUTPUT
INDICATE DECENT PROBABILITY /30-50 PERCENT/ FOR MODEST INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG/ AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...RECENT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WEREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN...5-10 DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT THAT SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS BY ITSELF.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RECOVERY DAY AS THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT YET ANOTHER ONE IS ON ITS HEELS AND WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS SHIFTS WERE NOTING VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS
THAT APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED NOW AS THE GEFS/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE
PRETTY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION. JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL NOT A VERY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.
BEYOND THERE IS AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL IMPART A WARMING TREND ON OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMBING A BIT MORE
AFTER THAT. STILL NOT SEEING PHOENIX OR YUMA/S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECASTS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BLOWING FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SE-LY
WINDS AT KIWA LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO PRIMARILY STAY IN THE 10-
15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THU
EVENING. SCT-BKN CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-12K FOOT RANGE...WITH
LOWER FEW-SCT LAYERS IN THE 5-6K FOOT RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ON THU. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT
ONE...OR MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STRONG WINDS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE AT THE SE CA TAF SITES...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKE TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU AS THE MAIN
JET/STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT PASS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON THU AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE REGION BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NE. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH SE CA TERMINALS...WITH JUST FEW-SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
LAYERS PASSING OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE DISTRICT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN FALLING TO COOLER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MARKEDLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PASSING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AS COMPARED TO
NORMAL WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND A 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
THREAT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/INIGUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS....ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY TOUCHED OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED OVER RURAL AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT ABOUT 2:15 PM
THIS AFTERNOON A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED MARBLE SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY TOWN OF SAN ARDO. THEN...AT ABOUT 2:25 PM
A THUNDERSTORM SPAWNED A WATERSPOUT ON LAKE BERRYESSA IN EASTERN
NAPA COUNTY. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDED OR MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW
ON FRIDAY AND THEN DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
OUR COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HILLS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THESE POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL EASE
IN THE HILLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY OFFSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MEAN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY...BOTH INLAND AND LOCALLY NEAR THE
COAST.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER THE SOCAL DESERTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VFR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FAIR WEATHER WILL
RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY BRINGS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AT MID-EVENING IN WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOCAL WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH WERE OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HRRR HAS
PRECIP INCREASING SHORTLY IN MOST AREAS FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
COAST. THIS WILL BE MORE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP VERSUS THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN SBD COUNTY EARLIER AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND OVER 10000
FEET IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. PRECIP
IN MOST AREAS WILL BE 1/10 INCH OR LESS...BUT ON WEST SLOPES...LOCAL
AMOUNTS OVER 1/4 INCH COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY.
00Z NAM HAS SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS UP TO AROUND 600-800 J/KG...SO THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED TSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THOSE
MOUNTAINS. 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AT/BELOW -20 C...RATHER LOW FOR LATE
APRIL. LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
MOSTLY AT/ABOVE 7000 FEET.
FAIR WEATHER UNDER WEAK RIDGING SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES INLAND...WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR THE
COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR ALOFT THOUGH
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY A TSTORM OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN...COULD OCCUR...WITH MOST LIKELY TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY.
SOME RIDGING WILL RETURN AROUND MON/TUE FOR WARMING...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL INLAND FOR A CHANGE BY TUE. LATE IN
THE WEEK...A DEEP TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC
FOR MORE COOL WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP.
.AVIATION...
280400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL THE
COASTAL BASIN OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. BASES ARE BETWEEN
1800-2400 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2500 FT MSL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFT 28/0500Z...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND ALONG THE BEACHES. SHRA- MAY DECREASE
VIS TO 5 SM IN SPOTS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 28/0600Z-1800Z.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM BKN TO SCT BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOW CLOUDS WILL OBSCURE VIS ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES TONIGHT MAINLY BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MSL. HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/FOG AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS ON THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DESERT SLOPES WILL BE BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
TONIGHT...THUS CREATING MODERATE UP AND DOWN DRAFTS AND TURBULENCE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
900 PM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL SURFACE LATE TONIGHT WHEN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO 10 TO 13 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE
INNER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.BEACHES...
900 PM...MODERATE SURF WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FROM A BUILDING SHORT PERIOD WEST NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8-
10 SECONDS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO
POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...
TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY...
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.
TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
THURSDAY...
BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.
RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.
HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.
ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.
THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016
INCOMING SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AT KCOS INTO
THE MVFR THEN IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z. KPUB WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY 12Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN -SHRA FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER THE
-SN AROUND 06Z FRI. KCOS COULD SEE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KPUB WILL STAY
AS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR WITH -TSRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MVFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH -SHSN. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
156 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL SOLIDLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. THERE
IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER BUT WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO BE AN ISSUE FOR KAPF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN
INCREASING IN SPEED BUT ONLY TO AROUND 10-12 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. KAPF WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SW AROUND 18Z AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. /HOETH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/
UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POP UP ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS EVENING. WHILE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE,
THE HRRR STILL INSISTS MORE WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN
PLACE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE EAST WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT
MOST LOCATIONS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW, IT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN, POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KAPF
WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE FLIP THE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE
SEA/GULF BREEZES. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE EAST, AND WILL HAMPER
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY, TO AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY, IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE REDUCTION OF THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE WIND
LOOKS TO PICK UP AGAIN SOME BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND ALSO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 87 74 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 86 71 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...99/BH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH STRONG
MIXING TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND GFS LAMP
INDICATED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
548 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
357 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.
LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. DO
THINK ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATL. HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 40 20 5 5
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 40 20 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 40 10 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 40 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 40 10 5 10
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 50 30 5 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 30 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 50 20 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.
&&
.MARINE...
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1234 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
NO CHANGES IN TIMING WERE NEEDED FROM THE EARLIER TAF FORECASTS WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ONSET. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST 3 HOURS. LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN REACHING THE
GROUND FOR DETROIT SHORTLY AROUND/AFTER 10Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH THE RAIN
LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF THE DETROIT TERMINALS BY 16Z. PRECIPIATION
END TIMES ARE LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THE AXIS OF DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STALLS OVERHEAD WITHIN A
BROADER CORRIDOR OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS VERY POOR MOITURE QUALITY/DEEP SATURATION ISSUES THROUHGOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS SKEWED HIGHER THAT CIG HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CIGS OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL
WILL HOLD OVER A GREATER PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ONLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...THUS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES.
FOR DTW...RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL AFTER 10Z...WITH SHOWER EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT THE MID LEVELS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1234 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES IN TIMING WERE NEEDED FROM THE EARLIER TAF FORECASTS WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ONSET. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHGIAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST 3 HOURS. LATEST HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE FALLEN
IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN REACHING THE
GROUND FOR DETROIT SHORTLY AROUND/AFTER 10Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH THE RAIN
LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF THE DETROIT TERMINALS BY 16Z. PRECIPIATION
END TIMES ARE LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THE AXIS OF DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STALLS OVERHEAD WITHIN A
BROADER CORRIDOR OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS VERY POOR MOITURE QUALITY/DEEP SATURATION ISSUES THROUHGOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS SKEWED HIGHER THAT CIG HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CIGS OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL
WILL HOLD OVER A GREATER PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ONLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...THUS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES.
FOR DTW...RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL AFTER 10Z...WITH SHOWER EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT THE MID LEVELS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016
DISCUSSION...
AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING UNDER CONTINUED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A BAND OF SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM IOWA INTO SRN INDIANA.
THESE ARE RESULTING FROM MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER ERN NEBRASKA. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...THEN DAMPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIVE THE MID LEVEL FRONT INTO FAR SW
LOWER MI TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SE MI ON THURSDAY.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS GENERALLY SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWLY LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SYSTEM RELATIVE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
BE QUITE GOOD ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
COMBINED WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL SLOPE. WHILE THE NEAR STATIONARY HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF
DRY AIR UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL BE ADEQUATE IN OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR METRO DETROIT/ANN ARBOR
AND SOUTH THURS. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PUSH
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL LIFT ALL THE WAY
INTO CENTRAL MI AND THE NRN THUMB THURS AFTERNOON...THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH RAISES CONCERNS THAT THE MORE
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH. THUS JUST
CHANCE TYPE POPS WILL BE MAINTAIN ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB ON THURS...WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL FRACTURE THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
POOL OF RELATIVELY HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SE MI INTO FRI MORNING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL WAVE ALONG WITH THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUSTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. IF THE MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINS MORE
OF A CLOSED FEATURE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ENHANCEMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL.
AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SUPPORTING MINS IN
THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE THUMB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND A DRY NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
SUGGEST ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STUCK IN THE 40S ON
THURS. THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WILL
OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY CLEARING. THIS WILL SUPPORT FCST
HIGHS INTO THE 50S DESPITE THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SUGGEST ANOTHER INFLUX OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DAMPENING MID LEVEL WAVE FORECAST TO LIFT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN. MOST PROBABLE TIMING BASED ON THE 12Z SUITE IS LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
APRIL/EARLY MAY WILL PERSIST UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT NE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION AND LONG FETCH OVER
THE LENGTH OF THE LAKES WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THESE AREAS...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TOTAL
RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 0.25 INCHES FROM THE FLINT AREA
SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 5 PM.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.
THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.
THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 44 32 51 / 10 10 0 0
INL 32 54 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 36 51 34 58 / 50 20 0 0
HYR 34 51 31 58 / 20 10 0 0
ASX 32 44 32 51 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Hawblitzel
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
334 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 70
Quincy 64 44 66 51 / 10 5 10 60
Columbia 70 47 68 56 / 0 5 40 80
Jefferson City 73 49 70 57 / 0 5 40 80
Salem 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 60
Farmington 77 50 72 56 / 0 5 30 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.
Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions have spread across the KC terminals with MVFR clouds
still just hanging on across KSTJ. Storms from earlier today have
cleared the terminals and will not return other than a chance of
showers at the northern KSTJ terminal which might keep the MVFR
clouds in up north. Otherwise, skies will start to clear out
sometime Thursday with winds veering to the northwest late in the
day.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Thursday. Westerly surface winds will persist tonight into
Thursday in the wake of the cold front that moved through during
the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
655 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Rain will weaken or exit this morning as IFR CIGs slowly retreat
to the north. They should be exiting all STL metro sites in the
next hour or two, but may take much if not all of the morning
before lifting at UIN. Another round of storms will fire this
afternoon and handled with VCTS at most sites with targeting a
smaller range of time in the TAF with TEMPO groups until
confidence increases to slide to prevailing. Rain chances will
sharply decrease this evening and skies clear.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
First band of convection has shifted east of the terminals and
should see clearing take place this morning. Winds will veer back
to a southerly and eventually southwesterly direction with the
passage of a front that brings a drier air mass in. Convection
will be possible ahead of this front, but will more than likely be
later in the day and east of the terminals. For this reason, have
not included additional thunderstorm mentions in this TAF
issuance.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Showers with embedded thunder will continue over the next few hours
at all TAF sites, then should push out of the area between 09z and
12z. Winds will veer gradually from north northeast to the southeast
overnight, then to the southwest after sunrise. Another round of a few
showers and isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon, but the
probability of these storms impacting the TAF sites is too low to
warrant a mention at this time.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>004-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 76 57 76 50 / 80 70 10 10
Quincy 67 52 69 45 / 80 70 20 10
Columbia 74 51 72 47 / 60 40 10 10
Jefferson City 77 52 75 48 / 60 30 10 10
Salem 75 59 77 50 / 80 70 10 10
Farmington 75 55 79 50 / 70 30 5 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Line of convection starting to make an eastward push now over
southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Should make it to the JLN
area prior to the 06z TAF time and into SGF/BBG by 07-08z. Have
things going through fairly quickly and ending prior to 12z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are
expected, especially when winds become more southwesterly today as
the drier air moves in.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Convection over eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri is
proceeding slowly eastward...about as expected. Looks like the
leading edges will be moving into the western fringes of our CWFA
by 06-07Z. Have made minor tweaks to the PoPs to slow the precip
accordingly. RAP is forecasting 1000-1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE along
with increasing deep layer shear...and this continues to point
toward the possibility of elevated severe storms with severe hail
being the primary threat.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Current bowing convective system over SW IL has a well established
cold pool and will continue to move east into the western OH
Valley into a large region of unstable air in advance of it. The
deep convective line with any severe threat should clear the area by
500 pm with trailing stratiform rain clearing the CWA by early
evening. A prominent outflow boundary with the convective system,
which should have completely moved through the CWA by 00z, has
largely stabilized the air mass to boundary layer based storms in
its wake. I will retain some low chance pops this evening on the
fringes of our CWA however I think the vast majority of the
evening in the wake of the present system will be dry. Current
thinking is that overnight we will see a MCS that has evolved
across the Plains early this evening, move west to east into central
and finally eastern MO in the predawn hours. Additional showers
and thunderstorms could develop late this evening and overnight
ahead of the aforementioned progressive Plains MCS in response to
the LLJ and WAA along north of the retreating outflow boundary/warm
front composite. There will be a severe threat with this overnight
activity given MUCAPE of 1000+ j/kg and increasing southwesterly
deep layer shear, but not nearly as great as the system that moved
through today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
A little unclear how everything will pan out on Wednesday. There
will likely be ongoing convection from a decaying MCS over parts
of eastern MO in the morning that will move into IL. However it
does appear that there will be sufficient air mass recovery in the
wake of the morning convection. How much and the most favored
corridors are hard to say. Mid level lapse rates will remain steep
and heating should lead to SBCAPE of at least 1500 j/kg over parts
of central MO by early afternoon. The combination of the east-northeast
rotating short wave trof and large scale ascent, and the attendant
advancing cold front should result in thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the cold front by mid afternoon. Coverage should
then increase through the remainder of the afternoon, with storms
persisting into the evening as the front and trof progress east.
We will probably see a mixed convective mode with all severe
weather threats. Most of the activity should have moved out of the
CWA by 06z Thursday.
The trof will be lifting to the northeast on Thursday with the
cold front advancing into the OH/TN Valley region. Present
indications are that increasingly deep westerly flow in the wake
of the front will lead to good drying and little if any
precipitation.
Next round of showers and thunderstorms looks to unfold Friday
night into the weekend. First with the LLJ, WAA, and a lead
impulse Friday night/Saturday and then with another formidable
upper trof and attendant cold front Saturday night into Sunday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS SHOWN
LITTLE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL DRIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 40S. THE RAP MODEL WAS THE COOLEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN EAST WEST BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE. THE BETTER RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE
800MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE NAM WAS EVEN
SUGGESTING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AS DEEP LIFT
TAPS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMICALLY COOLS THE ATM. THIS
FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW.
NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FOR FRIDAY... LOWERED MAX TEMPS AREA WIDE BY 1-2 DEGREES. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH CAA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER. H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C COMPARED TO 2C
ON THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS EARLIER IN THE DAY... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST NEB. MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING IS QUITE STRONG AND SATURATION
IN THE 500-700HPA LAYER OCCURS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EXTREME NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR STEADY RAIN AT KLBF
BEFORE 12Z... BUT GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD SLOWER.
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY... EXPANDED RASN TO COVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... GENERALLY TO HWY 83. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPS
EXIST NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. NAM IS COLDEST WITH A TEMP
PROFILE SUGGESTING ALL SNOW AS FAR EAST AS KLBF... BUT GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 200HPA AND SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR RASN. THE
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ALL SNOW... ESPECIALLY IF DYNAMIC
COOLING PROVIDES THE EXTRA OOMPF. GIVEN THE COOL/COLD AIR ALREADY
SITTING OVER THE AREA... FELT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A WINTRY
MIX. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION AND
OMEGA >20US FRIDAY PM ACROSS THE AREA... AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MIXING
RATIOS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 1-2 INCHES ARE ATTAINABLE.
SATURDAY... COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION SAT PM AS MUCAPE MAXES OUT AROUND 100J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX REMAINS POSITIVE. EXPANDED RASN EAST AGAIN TO ABOUT
THE NEB HWY 61 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT.
LONG RANGE...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS
TREK EAST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
SCALED BACK POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE DOESNT SEEM AS
WIDESPREAD. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FIRST PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
SUNDAY PM ACROSS THE NORTH... AND EURO MID LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
REALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. STRONG WAA TAKES HOLD TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS
SURPASS 10C ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA UNDER A DOWNSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER
WARMING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOISTURE IS SPARSE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL BY MORNING. BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY...CIGS WILL RISE TO 5000 FT AGL. ON THURSDAY
EVENING...LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO 2500 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR CONDS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 200 THROUGH 700 FT AGL. CIGS BY LATE
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL AT THE TERMINAL AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
FLOOD GUIDANCE ERN LINCOLN...FRONTIER COUNTY AND CUSTER
COUNTY IS LOW...LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH 3 DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY... AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL VA AND THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST NC... A FUNCTION
OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER WIDESPREAD STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC HAVE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT TEMP
DROP TO ITS NORTH BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HRRR DID A GOOD
JOB IN RECENT RUNS... RESTRICTING THE HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... EVEN CORRECTLY DEVELOPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... SO
HAVE LARGELY RELIED ON IT FOR THIS UPDATE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT... WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SOMETHING LIKELY TO BE LACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... A TREND
TO BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/MCV FROM THE SW
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS / RECENT
TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE... HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS TO 63-67. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SETTING UP TO BE DRIER AS THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING BEHIND A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. IT WILL
TURN COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... AND
BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN TO SHOW THE COOLING ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WITH 70S EXPECTED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER RANGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... IT
SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY... THEN EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL NOT BIT
ON THAT JUST YET. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN
SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL
STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN
RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO
0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY
LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME
OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC).
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY
LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS
TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE
BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST MINOR S/W WILL
CROSS NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE COOL
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS...PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BUT QUICKLY SCOOT EAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING S/W TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN
BREAKING OUT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID/INSITU COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL BE LOW NORMAL IF THE RAIN DEVELOPS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISING A PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND EASTERN US.S TROUGH. DISTURBANCES IN THE
AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE SHY OF
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 64 IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
28/06Z BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO VA LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THAT`S CURRENTLY ALONG THE
NC/VA BORDER. AS SUCH THROUGH 28/12Z...KINT/KGSO...ALONG WITH
KRWI...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER WITH
BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
FROM 28/15Z THROUGH 29/00Z...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME
RESULTING IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD
AND ALONG OF THE WX DISTURBANCE THAT`S CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS AOA 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
532 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.
EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
353 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL
BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPING /DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE/.
SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH
VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.
THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT WIND AND DRY AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS...WHILE M/U40S WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND
BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WITH PERIODS OF COLD RAIN
DEVELOPING TODAY.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL WILL
BE FAIR BUT ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPING /DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NE/.
SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY DEVELOP EVEN EARLIER OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN RAP SFC-850 RH
VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT AFTER 06Z.
THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT WIND AND DRY AIR
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NCENT
MTNS...WHILE M/U40S WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WAVES WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND
BRING AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WITH PERIODS OF COLD RAIN
DEVELOPING TODAY.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. MDL BLENDED QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EVEN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER HARRISBURG...SOUTH
AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.
LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.
BAKER
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 20 10 5 5
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 20 10 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 20 10 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 20 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 20 10 5 10
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 30 20 5 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 20 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.
LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 40 20 5 5
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 40 20 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 40 10 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 40 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 40 10 5 10
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 50 30 5 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 30 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 50 20 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. OVERALL...THE RECENT
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND
IS WHAT THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY REGION...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY.
OVERALL...THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE
DETAILS ARE LOW. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING TODAY WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION MAY OCCUR FOR CAPE BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
PENDING MORNING CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. AFTER
ACTIVITY PROBABLY PEAKS THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY PEAK SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. THEREAFTER...THE RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BECOME DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG HOWEVER WAS TOO LIMITED AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING IS
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL
BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY.
NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY
DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE
RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE
COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE
CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64
AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST
YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN
WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
CONVECTION IS AFFECTING MAINLY JKL AND SJS AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT
EAST INTO WV BY 14Z OR 15Z. IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH
THIS THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. ONCE
THIS DEPARTS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
BY THE 16Z TO 19Z PERIOD. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 0Z OR
SUNSET. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG WITH
MVFR OR IFR VIS BY THE 6Z TO 12 PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 16Z...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AND
GUSTY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
646 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHRAS WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH TERMINALS AS LIFT OVERSPREAD
AREA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. DRY LOW LEVEL WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EVEN
AS -SHRAS INCREASE. EVENTUALLY...MID AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...MVFR
CIGS MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE. MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST TONIGHT
WITH A FEW SHRAS PERSISTING ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO AREA FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE. WILL LEAVE DRY AT
THIS TIME AS BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING AS OPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH AREA AND
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT/FORCING ALONG THIS TROUGH.
FOR DTW...-SHRAS WILL WORK INTO TERMINAL AS THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH
CIGS LOWERING BELOW 5000 FEET WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO A SHRINKING AREA OF RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN LOWER VFR OR PERHAPS MVFR. PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS WILL BE
COMMON INTO MID AFTERNOON...WITH BACKING/DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH 20Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.
MARINE...
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.
HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
645 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Outside patchy fog around UIN which should be dissipating very
soon, VFR conditions and dry wx are expected to prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. A region of MVFR CIGs over in
northwest MO will edge COU and UIN later this morning but are
expected to be around 3500ft when they do. Some isolated SHRA are
possible this afternoon just north of UIN, but should be enough to
the north to preclude mention in the UIN TAF. Otherwise, W winds
will veer NW by this evening and then become light and variable
late tonight and Friday morning.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.
Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites with the only
noteworthy condition being a gradual shift of surface winds to
the east-northeast during the period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR stratus will linger through the early to mid-morning hours
before moving east of the terminal sites into the afternoon. VFR
conditions will then continue through the remainder of the forecast
period with winds becoming northwesterly with time. Cloud cover will
build back into the region late tonight ahead of the next storm
system. Precipitation chances with this system may affect the very
end of the period though low confidence in this occurring will
exclude mention in the forecast for now. Better precipitation chances
with some isolated thunder will commence Friday afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR stratus will linger through the early to mid-morning hours
before moving east of the terminal sites into the afternoon. VFR
conditions will then continue through the remainder of the forecast
period with winds becoming northwesterly with time. Cloud cover will
build back into the region late tonight ahead of the next storm
system. Precipitation chances with this system may affect the very
end of the period though low confidence in this occurring will
exclude mention in the forecast for now. Better precipitation chances
with some isolated thunder will commence Friday afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
334 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 70
Quincy 64 44 66 51 / 10 5 10 60
Columbia 70 47 68 56 / 0 5 40 80
Jefferson City 73 49 70 57 / 0 5 40 80
Salem 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 60
Farmington 77 50 72 56 / 0 5 30 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.
Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions have spread across the KC terminals with MVFR clouds
still just hanging on across KSTJ. Storms from earlier today have
cleared the terminals and will not return other than a chance of
showers at the northern KSTJ terminal which might keep the MVFR
clouds in up north. Otherwise, skies will start to clear out
sometime Thursday with winds veering to the northwest late in the
day.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Thursday. Westerly surface winds will persist tonight into
Thursday in the wake of the cold front that moved through during
the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.
Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1245 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
655 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Rain will weaken or exit this morning as IFR CIGs slowly retreat
to the north. They should be exiting all STL metro sites in the
next hour or two, but may take much if not all of the morning
before lifting at UIN. Another round of storms will fire this
afternoon and handled with VCTS at most sites with targeting a
smaller range of time in the TAF with TEMPO groups until
confidence increases to slide to prevailing. Rain chances will
sharply decrease this evening and skies clear.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
First band of convection has shifted east of the terminals and
should see clearing take place this morning. Winds will veer back
to a southerly and eventually southwesterly direction with the
passage of a front that brings a drier air mass in. Convection
will be possible ahead of this front, but will more than likely be
later in the day and east of the terminals. For this reason, have
not included additional thunderstorm mentions in this TAF
issuance.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.
Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Showers with embedded thunder will continue over the next few hours
at all TAF sites, then should push out of the area between 09z and
12z. Winds will veer gradually from north northeast to the southeast
overnight, then to the southwest after sunrise. Another round of a few
showers and isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon, but the
probability of these storms impacting the TAF sites is too low to
warrant a mention at this time.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>004-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
A strong upper level storm system was centered over western KS early
this morning with a RIDGE axis over our region. The surface
reflection was located over central KS, showing that it had not yet
become occluded, with a frontal boundary that has become nearly
stationary stretching eastward to near the I-70 corridor in MO and
IL. Temps were in the 50s and low 60s across our region with what
was a band of severe TSRA but has since weakened moving towards our
region from western MO.
The storm system center is expected to track northeast to the mid-MO
river valley by late this afternoon, and with the RIDGE axis over
our way slow to yield ground, will result in the TROF associated
with the storm itself to become increasingly negatively-tilted, with
the TROF axis anticipated to be over our region during the afternoon
hours. At the surface, the low center will become occluded by
this afternoon with a new triple point likely just NW of STL metro,
with the old east-west quasistationary boundary extending east from
this, and a cold front extending south from the new triple point.
With all of this in mind, it appears the leading more active
convective edge currently from central to south-central MO will
become increasingly detached from the enhanced stratiform pcpn
behind it early this morning as it gradually dissipates, but
the leading edge convective elements should still sweep thru much
of the forecast area in the process accompanied by gusts of 30-
40mph. This round is expected to exit into eastern IL by late
morning.
A brief period of quiet wx for midday looks likely before the
approach of the upper TROF and increasing instability should set
off numerous TSRA by mid-afternoon areawide. The synoptic setup
will be such that if things can de-stabilize enough for the
afternoon, there will be a tornado threat, namely near and just
northeast of the quasi-stationary east-west frontal boundary that
will probably be just north of STL by this time. Otherwise, the
environmental shear will be sufficient for storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds, notably along the edge of the approaching
dry slot from the west. Maintained likely and categorical PoPs for
this afternoon.
Temps are going to be tricky again, with a lot of conditions being
set on pcpn development and cloud cover, so stayed within the
boundaries of MOS, with 60s north of the front and 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Focus for the short term will be convection and severe potential.
Forecast for tonight is conditional on how storms today unfold.
Believe there will be two main areas of storms at the beginning of
the period. One area shud be across ern portions of the CWA where
storms developing this afternoon near the triple point move ewd.
These shud exit the area mid to late evening. The second area of
convection is expected across nrn portions of the CWA under the
better upper level support. What severe threat develops this
afternoon, will linger into the evening, but out of the region by
Midnight.
Mdls are in fairly good agreement over the remainder of the short
term. The upper low lifts nwd on Thurs, leaving zonal flow over the
region. Can not rule out precip across far nrn portions of the CWA,
but believe the bulk of the precip will remain N of the fnt on
Thurs. With the sfc ridge building into the region, the remainder of
the week, and thru the weekend, is expected to be seasonably cool.
There is still some question of temps for Thurs as the 850mb fnt is
progd to be across srn MO/IL. The going forecast may still be too
warm, however, with deeper mixing expected and some uncertainty,
believe trend is in the right direction.
Looking into the extd, the deep trof over the Rockies is still
expected to eject into the Plains on Fri, with precip spreading into
the area Fri night and continuing thru much of the weekend. The
system this weekend has similarities to the current system impacting
the area. There is differences among guidance and any severe threat
will be conditional on location of sfc features and therefore a low
probability attm.
With a sfc ridge building into the area Mon and thru the remainder
of the forecast period, chances for precip are small. Temps are
expected to be aob seasonal average thru mid-week.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 76 57 76 50 / 80 70 10 10
Quincy 67 52 69 45 / 80 70 20 10
Columbia 74 51 72 47 / 60 40 10 10
Jefferson City 77 52 75 48 / 60 30 10 10
Salem 75 59 77 50 / 80 70 10 10
Farmington 75 55 79 50 / 70 30 5 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.
Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.
Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.
By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Line of convection starting to make an eastward push now over
southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Should make it to the JLN
area prior to the 06z TAF time and into SGF/BBG by 07-08z. Have
things going through fairly quickly and ending prior to 12z with
VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds are
expected, especially when winds become more southwesterly today as
the drier air moves in.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Convection over eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri is
proceeding slowly eastward...about as expected. Looks like the
leading edges will be moving into the western fringes of our CWFA
by 06-07Z. Have made minor tweaks to the PoPs to slow the precip
accordingly. RAP is forecasting 1000-1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE along
with increasing deep layer shear...and this continues to point
toward the possibility of elevated severe storms with severe hail
being the primary threat.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
Current bowing convective system over SW IL has a well established
cold pool and will continue to move east into the western OH
Valley into a large region of unstable air in advance of it. The
deep convective line with any severe threat should clear the area by
500 pm with trailing stratiform rain clearing the CWA by early
evening. A prominent outflow boundary with the convective system,
which should have completely moved through the CWA by 00z, has
largely stabilized the air mass to boundary layer based storms in
its wake. I will retain some low chance pops this evening on the
fringes of our CWA however I think the vast majority of the
evening in the wake of the present system will be dry. Current
thinking is that overnight we will see a MCS that has evolved
across the Plains early this evening, move west to east into central
and finally eastern MO in the predawn hours. Additional showers
and thunderstorms could develop late this evening and overnight
ahead of the aforementioned progressive Plains MCS in response to
the LLJ and WAA along north of the retreating outflow boundary/warm
front composite. There will be a severe threat with this overnight
activity given MUCAPE of 1000+ j/kg and increasing southwesterly
deep layer shear, but not nearly as great as the system that moved
through today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016
A little unclear how everything will pan out on Wednesday. There
will likely be ongoing convection from a decaying MCS over parts
of eastern MO in the morning that will move into IL. However it
does appear that there will be sufficient air mass recovery in the
wake of the morning convection. How much and the most favored
corridors are hard to say. Mid level lapse rates will remain steep
and heating should lead to SBCAPE of at least 1500 j/kg over parts
of central MO by early afternoon. The combination of the east-northeast
rotating short wave trof and large scale ascent, and the attendant
advancing cold front should result in thunderstorm development
along/ahead of the cold front by mid afternoon. Coverage should
then increase through the remainder of the afternoon, with storms
persisting into the evening as the front and trof progress east.
We will probably see a mixed convective mode with all severe
weather threats. Most of the activity should have moved out of the
CWA by 06z Thursday.
The trof will be lifting to the northeast on Thursday with the
cold front advancing into the OH/TN Valley region. Present
indications are that increasingly deep westerly flow in the wake
of the front will lead to good drying and little if any
precipitation.
Next round of showers and thunderstorms looks to unfold Friday
night into the weekend. First with the LLJ, WAA, and a lead
impulse Friday night/Saturday and then with another formidable
upper trof and attendant cold front Saturday night into Sunday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pockets of IFR are showing up here and there in observations
around the STL Metro area. Earlier guidance hinted at this and
subsequent runs continue to develop and expand IFR ceilings across
much of the area before daybreak. More confidence in this now
since it`s actually developing. Otherwise, expect waves of showers
and thunderstorms across the area over the next 24 hours...likely
ending early to mid Wednesday evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of lowering flight conditions to IFR. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Specifics for KSTL:
Looks like Lambert will be in and out of IFR ceilings for a few
hours and likely prevailing IFR by 09-11Z. The first wave of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into the vicinity of
the terminal by 10Z. And then another wave of storms is likely
after 18Z Wednesday. Strength of the storms is uncertain at this
time, but any storm could produce brief periods of IFR conditions
in heavy rain. Hail and gusty winds will also be a continuing
threat.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS SHOWN
LITTLE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL DRIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE INTO THE 40S. THE RAP MODEL WAS THE COOLEST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN AZ THIS
MORNING. THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN EAST WEST BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SWRN NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BETTER FORCING DEVELOPS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE. THE BETTER RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE
800MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE NAM WAS EVEN
SUGGESTING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AS DEEP LIFT
TAPS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMICALLY COOLS THE ATM. THIS
FEATURE IS UNDER REVIEW.
NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM AND K INDICES REMAIN IN
THE 20S INDICATING NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MID RANGE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FOR FRIDAY... LOWERED MAX TEMPS AREA WIDE BY 1-2 DEGREES. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH CAA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER. H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C COMPARED TO 2C
ON THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS EARLIER IN THE DAY... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST NEB. MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING IS QUITE STRONG AND SATURATION
IN THE 500-700HPA LAYER OCCURS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EXTREME NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR STEADY RAIN AT KLBF
BEFORE 12Z... BUT GFS AND EURO ARE A TAD SLOWER.
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY... EXPANDED RASN TO COVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... GENERALLY TO HWY 83. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... BUT SUBFREEZING TEMPS
EXIST NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE. NAM IS COLDEST WITH A TEMP
PROFILE SUGGESTING ALL SNOW AS FAR EAST AS KLBF... BUT GFS SOUNDINGS
ARE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 200HPA AND SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR RASN. THE
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ALL SNOW... ESPECIALLY IF DYNAMIC
COOLING PROVIDES THE EXTRA OOMPF. GIVEN THE COOL/COLD AIR ALREADY
SITTING OVER THE AREA... FELT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A WINTRY
MIX. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION AND
OMEGA >20US FRIDAY PM ACROSS THE AREA... AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MIXING
RATIOS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 1-2 INCHES ARE ATTAINABLE.
SATURDAY... COOLED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AND
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD REGION OF LIFT. REMOVED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION SAT PM AS MUCAPE MAXES OUT AROUND 100J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX REMAINS POSITIVE. EXPANDED RASN EAST AGAIN TO ABOUT
THE NEB HWY 61 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT.
LONG RANGE...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS
TREK EAST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
SCALED BACK POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE DOESNT SEEM AS
WIDESPREAD. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FIRST PUNCH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
SUNDAY PM ACROSS THE NORTH... AND EURO MID LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
REALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY. STRONG WAA TAKES HOLD TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS
SURPASS 10C ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA UNDER A DOWNSLOPE REGIME. FURTHER
WARMING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 15C WITH A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. MOISTURE IS SPARSE FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING. VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
TODAY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MVFR THIS EVENING WITH EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN AND
IFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN NEB.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
FLOOD GUIDANCE ERN LINCOLN...FRONTIER COUNTY AND CUSTER
COUNTY IS LOW...LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH 3 DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...HAVE ANALYZED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
FROM ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA...CLARKSBURG...GRAFTON.
SO A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN SAY PIT AND CRW. WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND THE FORECAST MODEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...EXPECT NEW ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
DILEMNA IS HOW FAR SOUTH... THINKING THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR MAY BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE. SO WILL DRAW
SOME LIKELY POPS FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON NORTH TOWARD THE FRONT FOR 20Z
INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. WE
WANT TO SEE THE NEW INITIATION/CONVECTION TRENDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON
THE RAP...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS TOO.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS LARGELY
LIGHT IN NATURE. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE WATER OK
AT THIS HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.
TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASED HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THUS...THINK HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO GOOD HEATING IN A
DRY AIRMASS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PANHANDLES MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOM AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AS EARLY AS 7 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY OVER THE PANHANDLES. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...STORM COVERAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT MAY
BE LIMITED. THUS...DECREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORTH TEXAS AND/OR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE ELEVATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AS WELL.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS LURKING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTH AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS BOTH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE... AND ALSO
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. PRECIP FROM BOTH AREAS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW...
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSITY IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE PASSAGE OF A FIRST WAVE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
EVEN IN THE MORNING. PRECIP COVERAGES DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY... BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE APPROACHES THE 100TH
MERIDIAN AROUND 00Z TOMORROW. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE... HOW MUCH
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION WILL THERE BE AFTER THE EARLY
STORMS... WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE LOCATED... AND HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTEND THE GFS POINT TO A
POTENT COMBINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS... BUT THIS IS
STILL HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS ABOVE.
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE ZONES /BOTH THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING/... BUT THE SPECIFIC
POTENTIAL FOR WHAT TO EXPECT IN SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW IS NOT
COMPLETELY APPARENT YET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 57 76 53 / 0 60 70 50
HOBART OK 78 58 79 49 / 10 70 70 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 61 84 53 / 0 60 60 20
GAGE OK 72 52 70 44 / 10 70 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 73 55 74 53 / 0 50 70 70
DURANT OK 85 62 78 61 / 0 60 80 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY
DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WET WEATHER
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THROWN ON
FOR GOOD MEASURE OVER THE RIDGETOPS.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM HOURS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE
COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN AND LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLYING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
746 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISC...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.
EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS BEGINNING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. JST IS DOWN TO IFR IN LOW STRATOCU. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING AOO BY
13Z...TO MDT...LNS AND UNV BY 14Z AND IPT AND BFD BY 15Z. THE LOW
STRATO CU SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED. MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...BUT GENERALLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES
IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE
MONDAY OR EARLY TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11Z UPDATE...ONSET TIMING OF STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAIN PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED (11-13Z INVOF KJST AND KAOO...14-16Z KBFD TO KUNV AND
KMDT...THEN 15-18Z IN THE NE COUNTIES) AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A
BLEND OF RADAR EXTRAP...RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SOME SMALLER AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE STEADIER RAIN AND WILL
SPEED UP THE ONSET TIMING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
...PREVIOUS DISC...
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS IT
ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD ENE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA
OF WARM ADVECTION/UVVEL UP AN OVER A QUASI STNRY BOUNDARY SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY -DZ/SPRINKLES
(THAT WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND BEING REPORTED BY SPOTTERS) OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SC MTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS RESULTING
IN RAP SFC-850 RH VALUES CLOSE TO 100 PCT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MDT RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING ...AND
BEGIN IN THE 17-20Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION NE OF KIPT PER A
BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z OPER GUIDANCE...03Z SREF AND HRRR.
EARLIER THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALONG WITH LGT NERLY SFC
WIND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS...WHILE READINGS IN THE M/U40S WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
BLENDED/CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF PA...GIVEN
THE PROJECTED LOW LEVEL LIFTED INDICES PROGGED OVER THE
REGION...SO HIGHS WITH THE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 50S...WELL BLW AVG FOR LATE APRIL.
BASED ON 18Z/00Z OPER AND LATEST 03Z SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH 12 HOUR POP GRIDS - NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. AGAIN..MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL DURING THE LATE AM
HOURS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTN ACROSS
THE NE COUNTIES. BLENDED MODEL QPF INDICATING ARND A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MOIST EAST TO SERLY LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE SLIGHTLY OVER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U30S ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE U40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY.
THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.
THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE THU-FRIDAY SYSTEM.
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...JUST MINOR. 06Z GFS WAS DRY
COMPARED TO THE 00Z EC. MAIN THING I DID WAS TO GO MAINLY
DRY LATER TUE...AND NOT REAL HIGH WITH POPS ON WED. SUPERBLEND
TEMPS FOR WED LOOK GOOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REAL COLD AIR
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX NOT FAR AWAY...AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WED. THE 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH
WITH KEEPING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
I HAVE SEEN LATELY.
INTERESTING TO NOTE...LAST MAY STARTED OFF WARM...NEW 12Z EC FOR
DAY 10 LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER THIS YR.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND MOST
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CALMER WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL STRATO CU TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...AOO...MDT AND LNS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLIDING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IN WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED JUST WEST OF THE TN RIVER. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND IT. AIR WILL BE DRIER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE SCATTERED AT
MOST BEHIND THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
WEST TENNESSEE MOVING THIS WAY. EAST OF THE FRONT HRRR SHOWING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-65 WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DISAPPEARED AND ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIGHT FOG WILL BE USHERED OUT AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 18Z AT CKV AND BNA...AND BY 00Z AT CSV. ALL
SITES COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
SKIES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT THURSDAY...
FORECAST THIS MORNING SHOWING LESS THREAT OF SHOWERS AS WE ARE
BETWEEN AREAS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. AIRMASS WORKED OVER
SOME...BUT SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL HEAT
THE AIRMASS UP AND LEAD TO OVERALL INCREASING INSTABILITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS...MAINLY THE RAP13 AND HRRR FAVOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY...THEN
SURGING EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONTS AFTER 1PM.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT
KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING TOUGH AT THE MOMENT FROM ROANOKE TO LYNCHBURG AND
DANVILLE...BUT RETREATING WEDGE UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. WENT WARMER
BASED ON MORE SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING TIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING SBCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG HERE...WITH ANOTHER HIGHER ZONE OF 1000 J/KG OVER
WEST VIRGINIA. OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK. STILL THINK OUR NORTHEAST COUNTY
WARNING AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO LYNCHBURG
NORTH WILL BE STABLE LONGER TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE
LOW...THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT
AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS LOOKS
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THIS TROF ERODES HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING COOLER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL START TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION AND PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
GENERATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED
TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH NEAR 70F
WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER BASED
ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD KDAN. BASED
ON CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT
AT THE 12Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
BECOMES MUCH...MUCH LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
STABLE AIR...WITH IFR CEILINGS...WAS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS STABLE AIR MAY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. LOCATIONS IN THE WARMER..MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KDAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND THE LOWER CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND VFR RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
741 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO VIRGINIA AND COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MSAS ANALYSIS AT 08Z/4AM SHOWED STABLE AIR HAD ADVANCED SOUTH AND
WEST INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND WELL INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE
STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
HOW FAR EAST AND NORTH THE COOLER...STABLE AIR WILL PULL BACK.
THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HOW TEMPERATURES TODAY. PLACES
THAT REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR WILL HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
RADAR SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF DANVILLE AND
LYNCHBURG BEFORE 10AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
IN THE WARM...UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT
AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS LOOKS
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THIS TROF ERODES HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING COOLER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL START TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION AND PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
GENERATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED
TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH NEAR 70F
WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER BASED
ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD KDAN. BASED
ON CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT
AT THE 12Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
BECOMES MUCH...MUCH LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
STABLE AIR...WITH IFR CEILINGS...WAS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS STABLE AIR MAY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. LOCATIONS IN THE WARMER..MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING KDAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND THE LOWER CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND VFR RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/
UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.
LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SCT ACROSS ATL/AHN AND SCT-BKN ACROSS CSG/MCN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE WHOLE
AREA SINKING INTO SOUTH GA BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY TO CALM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 83 61 89 61 / 20 10 5 10
ATLANTA 81 62 86 65 / 20 10 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 79 55 82 57 / 20 10 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 58 85 61 / 20 10 5 20
COLUMBUS 83 64 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
GAINESVILLE 81 61 85 62 / 20 10 5 20
MACON 84 63 88 63 / 30 20 10 10
ROME 83 57 86 59 / 20 10 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 58 86 60 / 20 10 10 10
VIDALIA 87 67 89 66 / 50 40 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.
LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KIND VICINITY...SO WILL REMOVE
FROM THE FORECAST.
WILL ALSO ADD SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. NO NEW CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ABOUT THE LAST 90 MINUTES OR SO. HOWEVER...WITH THE
HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO AID WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. OVERALL...THE RECENT
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND
IS WHAT THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY REGION...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY.
OVERALL...THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE
DETAILS ARE LOW. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING TODAY WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION MAY OCCUR FOR CAPE BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
PENDING MORNING CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. AFTER
ACTIVITY PROBABLY PEAKS THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY PEAK SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. THEREAFTER...THE RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BECOME DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG HOWEVER WAS TOO LIMITED AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING IS
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL
BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY.
NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY
DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE
RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE
COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE
CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64
AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST
YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN
WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE ANTICIPATE
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS USED IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS ANY SHOWER
OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. IF AN AIRPORT WERE TO EXPERIENCE
A SHOWER OR STORM...MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
WILL START OUT BKN AT AROUND 3K...AND SHOULD BECOME SCT AT AROUND
5K BY AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH OUT
THE PERIOD. PILOTS CAN EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
VALLEY FOG. THIS FOG MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS AND AFFECTS THE SURROUNDING
RIDGETOPS. THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. NO NEW CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ABOUT THE LAST 90 MINUTES OR SO. HOWEVER...WITH THE
HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO AID WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...DECIDED TO LEAVE IN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. THIS LED TO HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. OVERALL...THE RECENT
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM...REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND
IS WHAT THE MOST RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY REGION...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS AND
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL KY.
OVERALL...THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE MAIN MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE
DETAILS ARE LOW. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL
DRYING AND COOLING TODAY WITH MODEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
SUFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION MAY OCCUR FOR CAPE BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO REACH 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
PENDING MORNING CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. AFTER
ACTIVITY PROBABLY PEAKS THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY PEAK SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
SUNSET. THEREAFTER...THE RESPITE FROM THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN...THOUGH IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TONIGHT...AND IT COULD BECOME DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG HOWEVER WAS TOO LIMITED AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE AS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLEARING IS
UNCERTAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
THE PERIOD WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING. ALONG WITH THIS A WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING INCREASE
IN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. DO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AM BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
CHANCE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN WILL
BE TOWARD TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AS MAIN WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL JET COME ACROSS EASTERN KY.
NOW SUNDAY WE SEE MORE PHASING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHILE WE
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THE SURFACE AS WARM FRONT TRACKS
NORTH. THIS PHASING WILL BRING DECENT BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT
RIGHT ACROSS KY...AND AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL
ALIGN TO ESTABLISH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL INTERSECTION YOU COULD SEE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION DO WE SEE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WE SEE AMPLY
DESTABILIZATION AND CERTAINLY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES MID LAPSE
RATES UP TICK TO AROUND 7 C/KM. CAPE VALUES BECOME FAT WITH IN THE
COLUMN...WITH THE SOUNDING SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IF WE REALIZE SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE WOULD BE IN FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND
ALL ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY. WILL ALSO SAY THE
CIPS ANALOG DOES SHOW SOME SIGNAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64
AND SPC MARS HAS SOME WEAK SIGNAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT WILL NOT RAMP UP HWO JUST
YET...BUT WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DO TRANSITION THIS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS THAN
WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...AS WE FALL BACK TO MORE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY MORNING WE DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY FEEL COOL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE. BEHIND THIS WE COULD
SEE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR IF THE GFS COMES TRUE SHOWING 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE...BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
CONVECTION IS AFFECTING MAINLY JKL AND SJS AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT
EAST INTO WV BY 14Z OR 15Z. IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH
THIS THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. ONCE
THIS DEPARTS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
BY THE 16Z TO 19Z PERIOD. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 0Z OR
SUNSET. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG WITH
MVFR OR IFR VIS BY THE 6Z TO 12 PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 16Z...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AND
GUSTY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SASK THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ATOP A TROUGH FROM SW MN INTO SW WI. AT
THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH
PRES FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A TROUGH FROM ERN IA
INTO THE OH VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR MNM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE LOW 30S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATE LIGHT PCPN PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAKENING NE GRADIENT FLOW WILL STILL BE BOOSTED BY LAKE SUPERIOR TO
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...850-800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C WILL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT MORE INLAND CU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN
CANADA AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH
PEAK AMPLITUDE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU NRN ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -SHRA...BUT WITH TRACK OF WAVE
JUST NE OF UPPER MI...PCPN IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS FAR
S...ESPECIALLY WITH INSTABILITY LACKING. WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY
IF WE WERE MUCH FARTHER INTO THE WARM SEASON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
TUE NIGHT WARRANTS LOW CHC POPS. AT THIS POINT...THAT`S THE ONLY CHC
OF RAIN FROM SAT THRU THU.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR
COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN
MON...BUT MORE SO TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS
OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA.
SO...IT APPEARS TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI WILL OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW...OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY OF MOST
CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
THAT FROPA 5 DAYS OUT...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SOME
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SASK THROUGH THE NRN LAKES ATOP A TROUGH FROM SW MN INTO SW WI. AT
THE SFC...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED INTO UPPER MI BETWEEN HIGH
PRES FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A TROUGH FROM ERN IA
INTO THE OH VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN FROM CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR MNM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE LOW 30S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATE LIGHT PCPN PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
WEAKENING NE GRADIENT FLOW WILL STILL BE BOOSTED BY LAKE SUPERIOR TO
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...850-800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C WILL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT MORE INLAND CU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
HUDSON BAY HI PRES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX TO THE AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST MON. THERE WL BE A LO PRES DVLPG OVER THE PLAINS ON
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF A SRN BRANCH
UPR TROF OVER THE SW CONUS. BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV/SFC LO WL
ENCOUNTER A CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF ON THE SW FLANK OF PERSISTENT NRN
BRANCH TROFFING OVER QUEBEC...THE LO PRES/ACCOMPANYING DEEP MSTR AND
PCPN WL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT THRU THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF SHRTWVS
IN THE NRN BRANCH NW FLOW SLIDING SE JUST TO THE E OF THE UPR LKS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NE FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TO BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT TO JUST
SOME CLDS OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST FM ABOUT 0C TO A FEW DEGREES BLO 0C. EARLY MRNG LOWS WL DIP TO
ARND 30 AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON SAT THRU MON WITH DRY
AIR DOMINATING AND FAVORING GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DURING THE
AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE AND AWAY FM
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
IN THE LONGER TERM...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES DRIFTS FARTHER E TOWARD THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND UPR MI BECOMES DOMINATED BY A WSW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK
OF A RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FM THAT HI TO ANOTHER HI PRES CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO AS HI AS 8C LATE MON INTO TUE. BUT ANY WARMUP IS
LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND
STRENGTHEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE UPR LKS NEXT WEEK. SHRTWVS
DROPPING THRU THIS NW FLOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPAS WL BRING SOME
COOLER WX ALONG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE UPR LKS
AS EARLY AS TUE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ABSENCE OF
MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT POPS TO THE LO CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.
DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS
THRU THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE
GREENUP MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE EXPECTED BRIEF WARMUP. SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT DVLPG FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE INITIAL COLD FROPA ON TUE. IF THE STRONGER WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FNT OCCURS DURING DAYTIME WARMING/MIXING...GUSTY WINDS/LO RH COULD
HEIGHTEN FIRE WX ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016
DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN. TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.
MARINE...
STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.
HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
601 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Still expect a dry night as upper ridge approaches the area from the
west and surface low moves over Indiana moves off to the east.
Clouds currently across northern Missouri and central Illinois will
slowly move south through the night as the low moves to the east.
Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than MOS guidance, particularly
where clouds have kept temperatures down today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
...Friday through Sunday...
Not too much change to going forecast as showers and thunderstorms
will begin to overspread the area on Friday. It still appears that
likely or categorical PoPs will be needed Friday night into
Saturday morning as strong moisture convergence will lie
underneath decent ascent ahead of mid level trough. There is some
differences between the ECMWF/NAM vs. the GFS with the ECMWF/NAM
showing a slightly more northerly track with the surface low on
Saturday evening than the GFS. The ECMWF/GFS could bring more of a
severe weather threat, so will need to watch this closely. The
chance of thunderstorms will linger into Sunday before the upper
low moves out of the area.
...Monday through Thursday...
While the details differ, the overall idea of the GFS and ECMWF
is the same with the upper pattern becoming more amplified next
week. Shortwave trough will move southeast out of the Canada early
next week and phase with upper trough moving east out of the
southwest CONUS. This will cause northwesterly flow aloft to
develop by midweek. Rain chances look minimal at this point in the
northwesterly flow with near normal temperatures as the GFS Mean
ensemble and the ECMWF 850mb temperatures will be in the 5-10C
range.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Low level cloudiness will continue at UIN tonight and Friday with
the ceiling dropping into the MVFR catagory late tonight and
continuing MVFR at least through the morning hours. It appears
that these low level clouds will remain north of COU and the St
Louis metro area tonight. VFR, low-mid level cloudiness will
spread into COU and the St Louis metro area by Friday afternoon as
moisture spreads into the area ahead of an approaching storm
system in the southern Plains and north of a warm front. Showers
may move into COU and the St Louis metro area as early as Friday
afternoon, but more likely Friday evening. West-northwest surface
winds will become light this evening, then veer around to an
easterly direction by Friday afternoon as they gradually
strengthen.
Specifics for KSTL: Northwest wind will become light this evening,
then gradually veer around to an easterly direction and increase
to around 8-10 kts Friday afternoon. Just some mid-high level
clouds tonight and Friday morning, then the cloud ceiling will
gradually lower Friday afternoon and evening as showers move into
STL late Friday afternoon or evening. Cigs and vsbys may lower
into the MVFR catagory Friday evening with these showers and as
the low levels saturate.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 402 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A bit of a cloudy to partly cloudy, but nice, day has prevailed
across the region in the wake of storms over the past couple of
days. However, we will be cooler as we move forward through the next
few days and the potential for thunderstorms will return for Friday
and the weekend.
Big picture today shows the Central Plains enjoying a shortwave
ridge between the trough that moved through Wednesday (now to our
north) and another large trough across the Great Basin to our west.
The shortwave ridge will persist across the Plains into Friday, but
the large scale trough out west will eject a smaller trough through
the Plains Friday and through the weekend. As a result, expected
warm air advection, with an abundance of moisture in the region,
will allow showers and thunderstorms to bubble up again. Currently,
model solutions have slowed down the onset of the precipitation; and
while the forecast has been adjusted to slow the onset a little,
still expect a chance of rain to spread across the region Friday
with the best chance for widespread activity expected to develop
late Friday evening and overnight as the large scale warm air
advection ramps up ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough moving
into the Plains. Severe threat looks very minimal to non-existence
outside an errant small hail or gusty wind report that might be
associated with the Friday night thunderstorm activity. However, we
will have precipitable water values running over one inch; and given
our recent rains, any torrential rain might lead to some local
flooding issues. That applies not just to Friday night, but all
through the weekend whenever more storms occur.
Rest of the weekend will be dominated by a chance for rain as the
ejecting shortwave trough gets picked up by the prevailing
westerlies, likely making for a cloudy and damp weekend. This will
help keep temperatures a little cool (around normal, but cool from
what we`ve had recently)through the weekend into next work week with
highs in the 60s to low 70s.
Otherwise, expect the chance for rain to fade Sunday night into
Monday with dry conditions likely Monday through Thursday of next
week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR clouds currently lingering across the western Missouri
terminals have proven stubborn in scattering out this morning, but
will scatter out later this afternoon with continued modest west
surface winds. As this occurs winds will veer to the northwest and
north late this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, high CIGs are
expected to move back into late tonight and linger through Friday
ahead of a growing chance for storms that will arrive in the region
Friday afternoon, but these CIGs are expected to be VFR.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Still expect a dry night as upper ridge approaches the area from the
west and surface low moves over Indiana moves off to the east.
Clouds currently across northern Missouri and central Illinois will
slowly move south through the night as the low moves to the east.
Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than MOS guidance, particularly
where clouds have kept temperatures down today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
...Friday through Sunday...
Not too much change to going forecast as showers and thunderstorms
will begin to overspread the area on Friday. It still appears that
likely or categorical PoPs will be needed Friday night into
Saturday morning as strong moisture convergence will lie
underneath decent ascent ahead of mid level trough. There is some
differences between the ECMWF/NAM vs. the GFS with the ECMWF/NAM
showing a slightly more northerly track with the surface low on
Saturday evening than the GFS. The ECMWF/GFS could bring more of a
severe weather threat, so will need to watch this closely. The
chance of thunderstorms will linger into Sunday before the upper
low moves out of the area.
...Monday through Thursday...
While the details differ, the overall idea of the GFS and ECMWF
is the same with the upper pattern becoming more amplified next
week. Shortwave trough will move southeast out of the Canada early
next week and phase with upper trough moving east out of the
southwest CONUS. This will cause northwesterly flow aloft to
develop by midweek. Rain chances look minimal at this point in the
northwesterly flow with near normal temperatures as the GFS Mean
ensemble and the ECMWF 850mb temperatures will be in the 5-10C
range.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A rather large area of stratus covered the Upper MS Valley and
northern Plains into northern MO and through a good portion of
northern and central IL. The southern extent impacting KUIN was
located within cyclonic westerly low level flow, and stretched
just north and west of KCOU. KUIN will continue to see MVFR flight
conditions this afternoon which are expected to improve to VFR by
00z. Overnight however lower stratus and some light fog will
likely move back into KUIN and persist into Friday morning.
Elsewhere predominately VFR flight conditions are expected with
potential for MVFR stratus on and off at KCOU through late
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast TAF
period. Westerly winds this afternoon will become light this
evening and veer with time.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Still expect a dry night as upper ridge approaches the area from the
west and surface low moves over Indiana moves off to the east.
Clouds currently across northern Missouri and central Illinois will
slowly move south through the night as the low moves to the east.
Lows tonight will be slightly cooler than MOS guidance, particularly
where clouds have kept temperatures down today.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
...Friday through Sunday...
Not too much change to going forecast as showers and thunderstorms
will begin to overspread the area on Friday. It still appears that
likely or categorical PoPs will be needed Friday night into
Saturday morning as strong moisture convergence will lie
underneath decent ascent ahead of mid level trough. There is some
differences between the ECMWF/NAM vs. the GFS with the ECMWF/NAM
showing a slightly more northerly track with the surface low on
Saturday evening than the GFS. The ECMWF/GFS could bring more of a
severe weather threat, so will need to watch this closely. The
chance of thunderstorms will linger into Sunday before the upper
low moves out of the area.
...Monday through Thursday...
While the details differ, the overall idea of the GFS and ECMWF
is the same with the upper pattern becoming more amplified next
week. Shortwave trough will move southeast out of the Canada early
next week and phase with upper trough moving east out of the
southwest CONUS. This will cause northwesterly flow aloft to
develop by midweek. Rain chances look minimal at this point in the
northwesterly flow with near normal temperatures as the GFS Mean
ensemble and the ECMWF 850mb temperatures will be in the 5-10C
range.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A rather large area of stratus covered the Upper MS Valley and
northern Plains into northern MO and through a good portion of
northern and central IL. The southern extent impacting KUIN was
located within cyclonic westerly low level flow, and stretched
just north and west of KCOU. KUIN will continue to see MVFR flight
conditions this afternoon which are expected to improve to VFR by
00z. Overnight however lower stratus and some light fog will
likely move back into KUIN and persist into Friday morning.
Elsewhere predominately VFR flight conditions are expected with
potential for MVFR stratus on and off at KCOU through late
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast TAF
period. Westerly winds this afternoon will become light this
evening and veer with time.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
...Showers and Thunderstorms Return Friday and Saturday...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad
upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies.
A backing and increasingly diffluent flow will along with
strengthening isentropic upglide will cause elevated convection to
break out across southern and portions of the central plains
through tonight. This activity will migrate northward into the
Ozarks region heading into Friday morning with an increasing
coverage through the day. Expect rather widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Marginal instability will preclude any
threat of severe storms Friday but lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.
The showers and embedded storms will persist into Friday night as
the upper level system pushes slowly east. The associated warm
front will be lifting north toward the area as surface
cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of
this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will
impact the potential for stronger storms.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday as the
upper level trough edges eastward into the Plains. Models differ
on the placement of the developing surface low and warm front. The
WRF suggest the warm sector spreads into the Ozarks region
Saturday which would pose a conditional risk for severe weather.
In any event scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday
but the potential for severe storms will have to be monitored.
The upper level trough will fill and make its way east across the
central U.S. on Sunday. This will maintain considerable cloud
cover and possibly some lingering showers.
Another upper level trough is progged to slide east and southeast
from the Rockies early next week. This system will track farther
south but could bring scattered showers to far southern Missouri
on Tuesday.
Looks like mostly dry weather will transpire during the middle and
later part of the week but models differ on the strength of the
upper level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. Cloud cover will gradually increase with time as a storm
system organizes to our southwest. Ceilings will begin to lower
Friday as the moisture increases. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop as early as Friday morning but coverage
will increase later Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1247 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A rather large area of stratus covered the Upper MS Valley and
northern Plains into northern MO and through a good portion of
northern and central IL. The southern extent impacting KUIN was
located within cyclonic westerly low level flow, and stretched
just north and west of KCOU. KUIN will continue to see MVFR flight
conditions this afternoon which are expected to improve to VFR by
00z. Overnight however lower stratus and some light fog will
likely move back into KUIN and persist into Friday morning.
Elsewhere predominately VFR flight conditions are expected with
potential for MVFR stratus on and off at KCOU through late
afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast TAF
period. Westerly winds this afternoon will become light this
evening and veer with time.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. Cloud cover will gradually increase with time as a storm
system organizes to our southwest. Ceilings will begin to lower
Friday as the moisture increases. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop as early as Friday morning but coverage
will increase later Friday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR clouds currently lingering across the western Missouri
terminals have proven stubborn in scattering out this morning, but
will scatter out later this afternoon with continued modest west
surface winds. As this occurs winds will veer to the northwest and
north late this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, high CIGs are
expected to move back into late tonight and linger through Friday
ahead of a growing chance for storms that will arrive in the region
Friday afternoon, but these CIGs are expected to be VFR.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
645 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Outside patchy fog around UIN which should be dissipating very
soon, VFR conditions and dry wx are expected to prevail at the
TAF sites thru the valid period. A region of MVFR CIGs over in
northwest MO will edge COU and UIN later this morning but are
expected to be around 3500ft when they do. Some isolated SHRA are
possible this afternoon just north of UIN, but should be enough to
the north to preclude mention in the UIN TAF. Otherwise, W winds
will veer NW by this evening and then become light and variable
late tonight and Friday morning.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.
Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites with the only
noteworthy condition being a gradual shift of surface winds to
the east-northeast during the period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR stratus will linger through the early to mid-morning hours
before moving east of the terminal sites into the afternoon. VFR
conditions will then continue through the remainder of the forecast
period with winds becoming northwesterly with time. Cloud cover will
build back into the region late tonight ahead of the next storm
system. Precipitation chances with this system may affect the very
end of the period though low confidence in this occurring will
exclude mention in the forecast for now. Better precipitation chances
with some isolated thunder will commence Friday afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
MVFR stratus will linger through the early to mid-morning hours
before moving east of the terminal sites into the afternoon. VFR
conditions will then continue through the remainder of the forecast
period with winds becoming northwesterly with time. Cloud cover will
build back into the region late tonight ahead of the next storm
system. Precipitation chances with this system may affect the very
end of the period though low confidence in this occurring will
exclude mention in the forecast for now. Better precipitation chances
with some isolated thunder will commence Friday afternoon.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
A surface cold front has pushed through the area as of Wednesday
with relatively cool and dry air settling into place. Low level
stratus associated with the back side of the upper low will linger
across northern Missouri today. A thermal gradient will establish
north and south of the Missouri River today with northwesterly
surface flow and cloud cover keeping high temperatures across the
northern counties in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures
south reaching the low 70s by the afternoon. Thursday will be
pleasant with dry conditions expected and comfortable temperatures
throughout the day.
Storm chances will return early Friday morning for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri while expanding eastward as another trough
deepens over the desert southwest. During this time a surface low
will trek from the Texas panhandle northeast and ultimately center
over northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. Warm air advection
ahead of this feature will likely produce widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon with increasing chances
overnight as the attendant cold front approaches western Missouri.
Lingering activity will continue through much of Saturday will
decreasing pops through Sunday afternoon. Still not anticipating
much in the way of severe this far north, though this potential will
need to monitored, specifically for areas south of I-70.
As the trough works its way east by the early week, it will be
absorbed into a deeper low just north of the Great Lakes region and
swing southwest near the area. As this feature deepens, could see
additional showers in the early week for the southern CWA. Aside
from this, the first half of the upcoming week looks dry for most
areas as a mid-level ridge builds across the Central Plains by the
mid-week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
334 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A stacked storm system was centered over western IA early this
morning. At the surface, an occluded front extends southeast from
this storm center to a triple point in southwest IL, where a cold
front extends further south from there and a warm front extends east
from the triple point. Temperatures were in the 60s ahead of the
cold front in southern IL, and have fallen into the 50s elsewhere.
Skies had also cleared over most areas, but some wraparound clouds
have recently moved back into sections of northwest MO. A small
area of dense fog has developed just north of the front and triple
point, but the favorability to sustain this fog should decrease
heading towards dawn as the fronts move thru and the triple point
pulls away.
The surface triple point is expected to move out of the forecast
area into east-central IL by 12z this morning, taking the other
fronts out of the forecast area as well, leaving westerly flow in
its wake, and a surface TROF just to our north in southern IA and
central IL. During this time, the storm center will track from
western IA into northeast IA with an upper level disturbance
will rotate thru southern IA by this afternoon.
The combination of some weak upper support and a surface boundary
and residual moisture should be enough for isolated to scattered
showers to develop with the heating of the day, but this all should
be just north of the forecast area. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected for much of the area with additonal clouds in northeast MO
and west-central IL. Westerly flow will support deep mixing,
resulting in max temps from the 60s in northern MO and central IL to
the 70s elsewhere.
TES
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
A weak sfc ridge builds into the area tonight, keeping the area dry
and cooler thru Fri morning.
The leading s/w may spread precip into the region as early as Fri
afternoon. Mdl differences continue with this system, but have
trended twd the slightly faster/more nrly ECMWF/NAM/local WRF solns.
This system will keep precip in the area thru much of the weekend,
tho Fri night thru Sat night still appears to be the bulk of the
precip. Given the mdl differences, uncertainty remains, but can not
rule out a severe threat on Sat. This threat will largely depend
upon where the sfc fnt sets up and if precip from overnight Fri can
move out of the area early enough for recovery.
Next week and beyond, sfc ridge builds into the area, keeping the
remainder of the forecast period largely dry. A secondary cdfnt
pushes thru the area sometime Wed. Mdls suggest this fnt will have
enuf moisture to generate precip, tho timing differences remain.
With Gulf cut off, do not believe enuf moisture will exist for
precip, but have kept low PoPs in for now.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 70
Quincy 64 44 66 51 / 10 5 10 60
Columbia 70 47 68 56 / 0 5 40 80
Jefferson City 73 49 70 57 / 0 5 40 80
Salem 74 50 70 56 / 0 5 10 60
Farmington 77 50 72 56 / 0 5 30 70
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Convection has shifted east of Missouri early this morning as
drier air as pushed in from the west-southwest over the past 12
hours. Main upper low was still sitting over the northern Plains
into the upper MS valley with the next closed low out in the
southern Rockies.
Forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances beginning Friday
and continuing into the weekend as this low in the southwest
slowly pushes eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
For today/tonight...Will see considerable height rises with upper
level ridging building into the area in advance of the southwest
upper low. There should be plenty of sunshine today, with a cooler
airmass, especially in the northern CWA. Highs will range from
around 70 in the north to the upper 70s in the southeast.
High pressure will continue to build in at the surface tonight
with a return flow beginning to set up around 850 mb. Good
southwest flow aloft will set up ahead of the next low which
should be lifting into the central Rockies. Expecting the
precipitation to remain to our west/southwest until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Could see showers/thunderstorms start to spread into the area on
Friday, especially over southern and western portion of the CWA.
Low level moisture will continue to advance into the area during
the day with pieces of upper level energy breaking off and moving
into the area. As the upper low shifts into the Plains on Friday
night, good diffluent flow sets up over the area with low level
jet impinging on the area as well. Instability never really gets
overly impressive to where severe weather would be expected, but
certainly wouldn`t rule out some stronger storms Friday night into
Saturday. Jet streak should push through on Satuday and low will
gradually open up and shift east Saturday night into Sunday. Will
continue lower end chances of thunderstorms for the later half of
the weekend, but best chances by far look to be Friday night into
Saturday. Overall from Friday through Sunday night we are going
with around an inch to inch and a half of rain, with the higher
amounts over the southern CWA.
Chances of rain for the remainder of the period look to be on the
low side to none, with weaker flow aloft and drier air over the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1228 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Thunderstorms are clearing the area to the east at this time. Any
storms will be capable of producing gusty wind, hail and IFR
conditions in heavy rain. To the west of the storms, expect VFR
flight conditions to prevail across most of the area for the rest
of the night. There is some fog developing over northeast
Missouri...which could spread into west central Illinois...however
am not very confident in how low to go. Regardless, fog threat
should be done by 12-13Z as drier air moves into the area. Some
MVFR ceilings likely across northeast MO and west central IL
Thursday as well...though some guidance has the clouds above 3,000
ft.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions are expected at Lambert through Thursday.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening with a few
high clouds. Winds will remain light and will gradually veer from
westerly to northeasterly.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.
Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.
And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
VFR conditions have spread across the KC terminals with MVFR clouds
still just hanging on across KSTJ. Storms from earlier today have
cleared the terminals and will not return other than a chance of
showers at the northern KSTJ terminal which might keep the MVFR
clouds in up north. Otherwise, skies will start to clear out
sometime Thursday with winds veering to the northwest late in the
day.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Thursday. Westerly surface winds will persist tonight into
Thursday in the wake of the cold front that moved through during
the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.
Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.
The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.
Specifics for KSTL:
Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.
Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.
The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016
Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016
Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.
Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in