Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/28/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

953 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FORECAST AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE
NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

641 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...65

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PHOENIX AZ

900 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. CURRENT REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
A LINE OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER MOVING ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY...JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING THESE SHOWERS/TS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...REMAINING MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THU
AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER...THEN
BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW AZ. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT WILL BE TO BRING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF SE CA...WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. GIVEN
THESE UPDATED FORECASTS AND CURRENT SHORT-TERM TRENDS...INHERITED
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING GOOD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOUT 2-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TOP OUT
RIGHT NEAR FORECAST VALUES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SPORTING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
TOWARD US TONIGHT RATHER QUICKLY AND MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY
TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY IMPACT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT NOR CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL SKIRT OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA TO WARRANT A MENTION OF RAIN BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SREF OUTPUT
INDICATE DECENT PROBABILITY /30-50 PERCENT/ FOR MODEST INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE ABOVE 500 J/KG/ AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...RECENT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WEREN/T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN...5-10 DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT THAT SHOULDN/T CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS BY ITSELF.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RECOVERY DAY AS THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT YET ANOTHER ONE IS ON ITS HEELS AND WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS SHIFTS WERE NOTING VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS
THAT APPEARS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED NOW AS THE GEFS/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE
PRETTY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION. JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...THIS ONE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL NOT A VERY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.

BEYOND THERE IS AGREEMENT OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WHICH WILL IMPART A WARMING TREND ON OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMBING A BIT MORE
AFTER THAT. STILL NOT SEEING PHOENIX OR YUMA/S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
ANYWHERE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECASTS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE DISTANCE.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL... PRIMARY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THRU ABOUT 04Z...WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF. PROBABLY WILL SEE A LATE SHIFT TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPHX BUT BY 11Z WINDS SHOULD BE
SELY. WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY AROUND NOON THURSDAY. NO
MAJOR ISSUES WITH CLOUDS...JUST SCT MID AND HIGH DECKS TONIGHT WITH
SOME CU AROUND 6K DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...TOO LATE TO BE
MENTIONING IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE...EVENING SHIFT CAN SEE IF ANY
MENTION OF WX IS NEEDED LATER IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... BY
FAR THE BIGGEST AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE WIND...ESPECIALLY AT
KIPL...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT
AHEAD OF VIGOROUS PACIFIC UPPER LOW. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30KT PAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT KIPL THEN TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG
THE GUSTS ARE...BLOWING DUST WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AND WE
MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE TAF FOR VISIBILITIES AOB 6SM. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LLWS...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS DROPPING OFF
BY MIDNIGHT WITH 35-40K WEST WINDS NEAR 2K FEET AND THIS WOULD LEAD
TO WIND SHEAR ISSUES. FEEL WINDS WILL STAY STRONGER AND GUSTY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AND THUS LLWS IS NOT IN THE TAF. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS. LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KBLH WITH MOSTLY SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CLOUDS NOT AN ISSUE WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL
DECKS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT BKN DECKS NEAR 10K FEET AT KBLH LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE DISTRICT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN FALLING TO COOLER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MARKEDLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PASSING WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AS COMPARED TO
NORMAL WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND A 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
THREAT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/INIGUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

902 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS....ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW TRACKING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY TOUCHED OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED OVER RURAL AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT ABOUT 2:15 PM
THIS AFTERNOON A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED MARBLE SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY TOWN OF SAN ARDO. THEN...AT ABOUT 2:25 PM
A THUNDERSTORM SPAWNED A WATERSPOUT ON LAKE BERRYESSA IN EASTERN
NAPA COUNTY. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDED OR MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE PRESENT TIME RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY NEAR THE OCEAN.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW
ON FRIDAY AND THEN DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
OUR COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HILLS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN
THE HILLS. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DRAW
ATTENTION TO THESE POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL EASE
IN THE HILLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY OFFSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MEAN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY...BOTH INLAND AND LOCALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:31 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE OVER THE SOCAL DESERTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY-TIME WARMING. PLENTY OF MIXING CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSISTING POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING ARE NOT
LIKELY TO TAPER OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY. VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.MARINE...AS OF 10:43 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE PASSING STORM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

931 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MOZLEY

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

KCOS...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.

MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPUB

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KALS

SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

UPDATE...MOZLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

829 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND URBAN CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO
BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH COLORADO LYING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE
PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND THE PHASE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE TRICKY THINGS TO
FORECAST. MORNING LOWS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 33 DEGREES...CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT
PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES IN THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR. (.01-.05 INCH/HR) THESE LIGHT INTENSITIES
SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. THAT BEING SAID...THE
PALMER RIDGE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER ELEVATION THAN DENVER. ONCE THE RAIN OR
SNOW BEGINS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING...IT SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE
APPROACHING STORM STRENGTHENS.

SINCE THE EVENING MODELS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

LOWER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A MID-LEVEL CAP
BENEATH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED SHOWER
FORMATION AND SUPPRESSED UPDRAFTS TODAY. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FCST WORKED OUT. THE GUSTY N-NWLY WINDS ALSO MATERIALIZED
ON THE PLAINS AND ON THE HIGH MTN RIDGES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WINDING UP
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/LOWER GREAT BASIN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD UP INTO COLORADO AND BY LATE TONIGHT
COULD SEE SNOWFALL ON THE INCREASE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS MOVING MOISTURE
WESTWARD UP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND BY LATE TONIGHT RESULTING
IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS FAR NORTH AS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA. VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS SAME ELY FLOW IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT
THRU MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG HERE WHERE
SOME VSBYS IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO BELOW A MILE AROUND
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING IN...SHOW SEE SNOWFALL
COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. PRECIP MAY START OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS BUT WITH TIME CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN
CHARACTER. ON THE PLAINS...NO PRECIP TO START OUT THE DAY AND BY
MID-MORNING THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SWLY
TRANSPORT WINDS. WILL SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE
PRECIP IN AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MAY EVEN SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR
TWO ON THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW PROGGED TO BE
GENERALLY 3-5 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

PRETTY REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
UPCOMING STORM. THE TRACK IS NOT NECESSARILY PERFECT FOR A MAJOR
STORM...A BIT TOO FAR NORTH...BUT ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LONG ENOUGH
TIME TO GENERATE DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. SURFACE EVOLUTION IS ALSO DECENT...PERHAPS NOT PERFECT...WITH
THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING A BIT LESS UPSLOPE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE OTHER BIG CONCERN...LIKELY THE
MOST IMPORTANT...IS THE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE AIRMASS.
LOTS OF DISCREPANCIES BETWIXT THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM
SUGGESTING MORE SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILST THE GFS IS QUITE
A BIT WARMER. LASTLY...THE GFS HAS ABOUT 3-4 TIMES THE QPF ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CWA COMPARED TO THE OTHER SIMULATIONS SO PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS IN THE DETAILS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER NUMBERS ARE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT 0.5 TO 1.0
INCH OF WATER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN MOST AREAS BEFORE ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR
THE FOOTHILLS...SOUTH PARK AND MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LATER ON DOWN THE LINE GENERAL TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

WITH PRECIPITATION NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
EARLIER IN THE MORNING...WILL BE ADDING SHOWERS TO THE TAFS AS
EARLY AS 08Z OR 09Z. WILL KEEP THE MENITON OF FOG AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ033>037.

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

406 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THOUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NRN PA AND NRN NJ. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF PHILA.
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TIER F THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS,
POPS/WX WERE UPDATED TO BETTER TIME THE CONVECTION. OUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE HRRR CLOSELY AS IT HAD CAPTURED THE FASTER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 400-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PROFILES ARE 45-55
KT ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK BEING SLIGHTLY REMOVED
NORTH (I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD) OF WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS. NONETHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 WAS
ISSUED AT 2 PM AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. NOT
MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR THINKING WITH REGARDS TO STORM MODE, COVERAGE
AND TIMING. THE MAIN THREAT IS STILL LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WITH
THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
SRN VA AND NC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST PASSAGES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH THIS HIGH
ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ DURING THE MORNING
BUT STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS A RESULT OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE PA/S NJ/DELMARVA REMAINING
VEERED OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE 12Z NAM, INDICATE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
OFF THE OCEAN. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MU50S IN THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ TO LM60S IN E PA AND IN C/NW NJ.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT
THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CYCLONIC FLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF ENERGY FORECAST TO
EVOLVE AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES,
MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING
IT, WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BACK INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT FIRST, HOWEVER A LEAD IMPULSE
WILL DRIVE WAA AND OVERRUNNING INTO OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND ALSO
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GIVEN POTENTIALLY MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR
SHOWERS IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, WE
ARE ANTICIPATING THURSDAY TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW FEATURE TO OUR SOUTH OVERALL
SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO START FRIDAY. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN
INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR
SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW WELL
TO OUR WEST, AS IT MAY OPEN UP INTO THE EAST, DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
FASTER EVOLUTION TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION
CHCS SOONER. THE FLOW OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE BLOCKY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW, THEREFORE
WE FAVORED WPC GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE LOW ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT, A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED REGIME DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCT SHRA AND TSRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THRU THE
AREA THIS AFTN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
TERMINALS.

FROPA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA AND BE MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT FROM W-SW TO N LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN NELY AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE STRATUS MAY MOVE INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDED MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS FOR LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

IMPROVING TO VFR EVERYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. NELY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU 9 PM. MAIN
THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DE BAY THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN WITH
W-SWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT. ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS WILL ALL SEE
GRADIENT WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT INTO OUR NRN COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THRU
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NE
BEHIND IT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT AS
A BRIEF NELY SURGE COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 4-7 FT.

NELY WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT BY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WINDS OVERALL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS SHOULD BUILD
TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/KLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

213 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 WAS ISSUED AT 2 PM AND INCLUDES THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN OUR
THINKING WITH REGARDS TO STORM MODE, COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE MAIN
THREAT IS STILL LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NY-
PA, ARCING E-SEWD INTO THE NRN NJ. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR BGM. LOOKING ALOFT, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MIDWEST MCS IS MOVING INTO E PA MID MORNING.

WEAKENING TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE
NOTED IN THE IR SATELLITE/ MOSAIC RADAR LOOP AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU
THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ OVER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE,
VIRTUALLY REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST THRU
MIDDAY (THOUGH ISO SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN A FEW LOCATIONS AREAS).

LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANT MCS WILL SWEEP THRU THE
AREA WHICH WILL DELAY STRONG SOLAR HEATING BY 2 OR 3 HOURS. MADE
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO MAX TEMPS TODAY, TRYING TO SHOW A
TIGHT N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR SINCE THIS
IS WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE IN MAKING
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS BUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FROM PHILA SOUTHWARD IF WE CAN SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS, HOURLY
POPS/WX WERE UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER TIME THE
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SWD THRU THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM 4KM,
RAP AND HRRR SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 600-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM SE PA-C NJ AND POINTS SWD BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST BULK SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. LARGER-SCALE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS
IT ONCE DID IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE DEEPEST LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
SLIGHTLY REMOVED NORTH (ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA)
FROM WHERE THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA). NONETHELESS,
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST SPC D1
FORECAST EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 2-5
PM IN NE PA/NW NJ, 4-7 PM IN SE PA AND S NJ, 5-9 PM IN THE
DELMARVA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA
METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 800 PM AND IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ITS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWEST PASSAGES
RIDGES DOWN TOWARD US. HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES THAT
PERSIST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA.

LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE IN THE CO FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TIED TO THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINS CUTS OFF. THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND RIDE THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ALONG AND ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT AND PRECIP ADVANCES WITH DRIER AIR BEING
REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE FROM GUIDANCE THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET COULD
LEAD TO A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE WHEN THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES IN. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SHOWERS MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS. THE WIND ARE STILL RATHER
LIGHT SO FAR MORNING FROM PHL NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR, SW WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-25 KT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
A CONTINUATION OF THE GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WIND. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEFLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES, AND
PERHAPS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH KABE, KRDG AND KTTN
BETWEEN ABOUT 2200 AND 2300Z BRINGING AND END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPNE
AND KPHL AROUND 0000Z, AND AT KILG, KACY AND KMIV ABOUT 0100Z. THE
WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA, WITH VFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY IN EFFECT FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY
AND IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1032 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NY-
PA, ARCING E-SEWD INTO THE NRN NJ. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR BGM. LOOKING ALOFT, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MIDWEST MCS IS MOVING INTO E PA MID MORNING.

THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA, WITH VFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

726 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POP UP ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS EVENING. WHILE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE,
THE HRRR STILL INSISTS MORE WILL DEVELOP, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN
PLACE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE EAST WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AT
MOST LOCATIONS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW, IT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN, POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. KAPF
WILL SEE A SEA BREEZE FLIP THE WIND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE
SEA/GULF BREEZES. BY FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE EAST, AND WILL HAMPER
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY WIND WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY, TO AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY, IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE REDUCTION OF THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE WIND
LOOKS TO PICK UP AGAIN SOME BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND ALSO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 73 87 74 88 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 69 86 71 87 / 10 0 0 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

332 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES...

TODAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
MID/UPR LVL S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE
ATLC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF .91 INCHES WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT TO -13 DEGS C AT H5. SOME WARMING OF THE
MID LVLS IS FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS H5 TEMPS WARM TO -10 C. LIGHT SE
FLOW THIS MORNING AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BACK SOME TO THE ESE/E
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WITH THE
PREVAILING LOW LVL FLOW. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUID TODAY INDICATES
CONVECTION AGAIN WEST OF THE E CENTRAL FL FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE LOW SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND WELL INTERIOR
SECTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY FCSTS FROM THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF AND ALSO 04Z HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COVERAGE. 00Z NAM AGAIN APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH SOME HEAVIER
QPF NEAR ORLANDO IN THE AFTN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED WITH A NE SWELL AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
COASTAL TO MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH ANY
EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WED-THU...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHILE AXIS OF
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL THE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET (850MB) LAYER AND A DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 10000 FEET (700MB). LIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT
WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AND PUSH
INLAND EACH DAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS SHALLOW/WEAK...SO ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LATE IN THE DAY AND OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. GUIDANCE
CAME IN WITH POP LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WOULD BE LOWER THAN
CURRENT POP. RATHER THAN HAVE SUCH LOW POP BOUNCE AROUND DID NOT
STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT POP OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. AMD GULF COAST. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND EASTERLY
WINDS. DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND
LOW IN THE MID 60S.

MON...TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PUSHES THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST FAR ENOUGH FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS MID 80S AND LOW IN THE LOW AND MID 60S.

TUE...SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MORE...BUT LIMITED...MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND
VORTICITY TO GO WITH SOME AFTERNOON STORMS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS. HIGHS MID 80S...LOWS MID AND UPPER 60S.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FOR SRN TERMINALS AND THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE VCSH STUART TERMINAL
15Z-18Z WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. OTHER TERMINALS WILL KEEP DRY. ANY
LATE DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF KMCO-KSFB CORRIDOR.
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER AT KLEE-KISM HAVE
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT OF FCST.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE TO 4
FT OFFSHORE IN A NE SWELL.

TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE E/SE WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-4 FEET.

WED-SAT...AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS EITHER
OVER AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXCEPT FOR OFFSHORE
WINDS FRI AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH TRACKS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE AND 3 FEET AND LESS NEARSHORE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS TO 40-45 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT UP TO 15 MPH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THOUGH
ERC VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP WITH DRY WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 65 84 65 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 86 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 0
MLB 82 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 0
VRB 83 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 0
LEE 86 68 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 85 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 85 68 86 68 / 10 10 20 10
FPR 82 64 84 63 / 10 10 20 0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WHEN IT COMES TO CHICAGO`S WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPRING...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE. OR...IF FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW MINUTES CAN MAKE. A
PNEUMONIA FRONT CAME BLASTING IN OFF THE LAKE A COUPLE HOURS AGO
WITH TEMP DROPS OF 20 DEGREES IN 15 MINUTES AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
30 DEGREES IN AN HOUR. LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AS IT GETS FARTHER FROM THE
LAKE THE TEMP DROPS WILL BE LESS DRAMATIC AND THE FRONT SHOULD
HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE BANK OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF WI
AND POINTS NORTH. WHILE IT LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT
BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY SEEPING SOUTHWARD AND ANTICIPATE IT TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WHILE CIGS WILL LIKELY
INCH UPWARD TODAY...THINKING THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY HOLD
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
NEAR THE LAKE. MOST OF THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TODAY AND AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND A STIFF WIND OFF THE LAKE.

CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS AS THE DAY
WEARS ON WEDNESDAY AND POWERFUL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. A STEADY
FEED OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE FAIRLY BRISK EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA...THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MAJORITY OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...SO WHILE WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80...THE CHANCES OF THUNDER
LOOK PRETTY LOW.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SAME SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN AND FILL. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM FINALLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND PROBABLY MOST IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY AS WELL BEFORE THE NEXT
BIG SHORTWAVE/CLOSED EMERGES TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HEADS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRIED TO SLOW
POPS A BIT FROM BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SUSPECT FURTHER
SLOWING IN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD BE NEEDED AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TEND TO SLOW THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD PROGRESS AT
THIS DISTANCES. ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATER IN
THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR MORE RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL.

NOW THAT WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST WIND REGIME TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE EASTERLY WINDS AND FREQUENT BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO WHERE
WILL THAT BE THE CASE MORESO THAN NEAR THE LAKE WHERE TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY WONT REACH 50 DEGREES AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONCERNS CENTER AROUND MVFR CEILINGS AND SPECIFIC END
TIME...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED EAST WINDS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO RAIN
POTENTIAL AND TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO RISE PER MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS OF 17Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING RIGHT
AT THE LAKEFRONT WHERE IFR WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. REMNANTS OF
THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS
TO WHETHER THE MVFR CIGS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT THEN RETURNING TO MVFR
IN THE MORNING FOR A TIME. DEWPOINTS DO NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUED
EAST WINDS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STATUS QUO OF AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS BEING AROUND.

THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AN ELEVATED
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT THUNDER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN HOLDS OF ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
COMPROMISE TIMING AROUND 20-21Z IN THE 30 HR ORD TAF.

KMD

.MARINE...
317 AM CDT

HEADLINES...GUSTS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE SO CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING EARLY. LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS IS. THE LATEST WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS THE SCY FOR THE IL
WATERS NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. ALSO CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE SCY FOR
POINTS BETWEEN CALUMET HARBOR AND GARY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND EITHER OF THOSE SCY/S JUST YET.

THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST. ITS
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW FORMING OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PATH
OF THE LOW...BUT THE MAIN MODELS BRING IT INTO NORTHERN IL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1047 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Weak cold currently stretching from northwest Indiana southwest
through our far northern counties into northeast Missouri will slide
south across the forecast area today. Convection has had a hard time
developing along the boundary overnight due to weak convergence and
stronger lift further north with the surface low. Short term models
suggest other than some isolated showers along the southward moving
boundary, the better threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
associated with shortwave energy now pushing through central Kansas.
Convection has already started just ahead of that feature well to
our west with the stronger convection progged to shift east and
affect our southeast counties this afternoon.

Looks like a fairly sharp cutoff to the precip along and north of
Interstate 74 where the lower POPs will be today, while areas south
of I-72 will have the higher rain threat this afternoon. Surface
based capes of around 2500 J/Kg were noted south of I-72 this
afternoon, although 0-6km shear values were not much higher than 25
kts during this same time period. Hail and gusty winds will be
possible over southeast Illinois with this cluster of storms this
afternoon. With the frontal boundary shifting into southeast
Illinois later today, will have a rather large temperature gradient
this afternoon with forecast highs ranging from around 70 over our
far northern counties, to the lower 80s over extreme southeast
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Forecast really is not changing much in this round, with the
exception of maybe building a bit of a break into the evening hours
without precip. However, the deep low spinning out over the Plains
and developing storm system will slowly spread rain/thunder into the
region after midnight especially...along a developing warm frontal
feature. The surface low remains out to the west for Wednesday and
is slow to progress with the deep low over eastern Canada/NE CONUS.
Much of Central Illinois remains in the warm sector with a potential
for some persistent and good rain Wed-Wed night along...up to an
inch or so. Low slow to move out Thursday as the rain comes to an
end briefly with a break before the next wave ejects out of the SW
across the Midwest for the weekend.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again. Some variability in the
tracks/strength of the sfc system. The ECMWF is initially more well
developed with a classic low...but both the European and the GFS get
a messier look by the end of the weekend, with the system shearing
out over the Ohio River Valley and slowing any progression. Either
way, next weekend looks wetter than not.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers and
thunderstorms south of I-72 this afternoon and also increase cloud
cover across CWA. MCS over southern IA and northern MO is
spreading clouds eastward toward I-57 late this morning, while
leading edge of showers and thunderstorms moving into west central
IL just west of CWA. HRRR model seems 1-2 hours too slow with this
convection spreading ESE across areas south of I-74 this
afternoon and following the quicker SPC high res model solution.
SPC has slight risk of severe storms over much of Clay and sw
Jasper counties by late afternoon. Frontal boundary is pressing
southward toward I-72 late this morning and will push south of
I-70 late this afternoon. Temps currently range from mid 60s from
Macomb to Lacon north to the mid 70s from I-72 south. Highs today
to range from the upper 60s to near 70F from Galesburg and Lacon
north to the upper 70s and lower 80s from I-72 south.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

109 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
903 PM CDT

HAVE CLEARED SOME OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
MENDOTA TO HIGHLAND PARK LINE AS OF 9 PM CDT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NORTHWEST LASALLE CO TO NORTHEAST COOK CO. SPC RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN REGION OF
1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AXIS SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WHILE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BECOMING ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LARGE/SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN REMAINING PORTIONS OF 103 UNTIL EXPIRATION.

AS FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST
OB/RADAR TRENDS TO TIGHTEN UP THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GRADIENT. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINTS ACCOUNT POSITION OF
THE BOUNDARY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON UNFOLDED ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS
TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO
HELPED TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD SHOWN A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WISC DOWN TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STRATUS WHICH COULD FURTHER
AGITATE THE MID-LEVELS AFT 21Z. DCAPE THIS HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE AS
A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR ARRIVAL IN THE MID-LVLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA/FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN IL AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
IOWA...ADDS TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT ZONE AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS INITIALIZATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN
ILLINOIS...THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND QUICKLY ADVANCE AND GROW BY 22-23Z.

ONCE CONVECTION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME INCREASED HELICITY AS THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THAT AN ISOLATED ROTATING
UPDRAFT COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE INCREASED DCAPE OF NEARLY 1000J/KG AND THE
STEADILY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL.

BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE VECTORS ALL
POINTING TOWARDS A SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND 30-40KTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK END TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CONCERNS OVER THE AREA BY
1-2Z. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THIS FEATURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS MID
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THEN FOR TUE BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE 8 TO 11 DEG C...WHICH COUPLED WITH AN EXPECTED
STRATUS LAYER ARRIVING COULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
MILD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND COULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TUE AFTN.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL WET PERIOD IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION IN A WEAKENING STATE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW 50S INLAND AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...IN THE 40S ON THE LAKE FRONT...AND IN TO 60S FAR SOUTH. WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND AS
A RESULT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION IS ACHIEVED.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

THUNDERSTORMS NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT IS STEADILY ADVANCING SOUTH. YOU CAN SEE THE FRONT
ON RADAR PUSHING SOUTHWEST. WINDS BECOME NE LESS THAN 10 KT
BEHIND IT INITIALLY BUT EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING. LIFR STRATUS IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.
LUCKILY THE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE LAKE ARE REMAINING OVER THE
LAKE AND NOT SPREADING TOO FAR ONSHORE. EXPECTING AN INITIAL WIND
SHIFT TO NE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...AND THEN THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD IN A FEW HOURS
LATER. GYY AND RFD ARE THE EXCEPTION. THINKING THE LAKE STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER GYY WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO N OR NNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO THINKING THE STRATUS AND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT RFD. I HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
500 FT CIGS INITIALLY. COULD SEE EVEN LOWER CIGS AS MANY SITES IN
WI ARE BELOW 500 FT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE TERMINALS.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW CIGS WILL BEHAVE TODAY. LEANING TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK WITH CIGS RISING TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CIGS RISE TO VFR THIS AFTN OR EVENING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THICK CLOUD COVER AND CIG TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WE MAY BE VFR.

JEE

.MARINE...
255 PM CDT

A QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPAWN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT 30 TO SOME 35
KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE ABATING
LATE.

NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP LAKE-WIDE ON TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TONIGHTS LOW. ONCE THIS OCCURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACK EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE LAKES. EACH OF THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LAKE. THE FIRST ONE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME 25 TO 30 KT
FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE WAVES AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR SHORES.

KJB

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Boundary is finally moving through the CWA this evening. Will need
to update pop/wx grids to account for current situation and
trends. Based on radar, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move through the CWA, mainly east of I-55. Boundary is
hard to see in the observations but it can be seen on radar just
passing the NWS office and is just east of I-55. This movement
will continue through the night, which means the showers could as
well. Other updates will be needed to account for the scattered
clouds in the west behind the boundary. Update forthcoming.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Sct to
bkn clouds at around 5-6kft will continue over the area and then
become all scattered in a few hours at all sites. However,
additional moisture will increase along the boundary that is
slowly moving through the area. By morning this will bring broken
cigs around 4kft at all sites. These broken cigs will continue
over the area through remainder of the forecast period. With the
frond just south of sites, any pcpn along the front should remain
south of the TAF sites as well. Winds will be tricky as the front
will be fairly stationary near I-72, so PIA/BMI and then CMI will
see winds become more northeast after FROPA. SPI and DEC should
see variable winds through most of the period, but then become
more southwest for the afternoon and evening periods.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Auten

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

427 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK...WETTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING COOL WET
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AT A STEADY 10-20MPH AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BACK INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA. WITH WELL MIXED AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH SO FAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH 07Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING
CONVECTION WHILE SIFTING THROUGH THE MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUES TO
CARRY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. HAVE LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE /HRRR-WRF-4KM NAM/ FOR TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION OF GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS W/SW ACROSS NW INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FROM THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. MOST OF THE
FORCING ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET ALREADY DEPARTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN CONVECTION REMAINING ISOLATED AT BEST WITH LITTLE TO
FIRE OFF OF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE PRESENCE OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WELL AT ALL...CONSISTENTLY TRYING TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS VERY CLEARLY WITH A
BORDERLINE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED BY DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS A RESULT...EVEN SHOWERS HAVE
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO THE REGION SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING.

WHILE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES...HAVE A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING ANY
HIGHER THAN A 20 POP WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING. THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING REALLY IS THE ONLY FEATURE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE THROUGH MIDDAY.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE SETUP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE AIRMASS
BECOMES MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. A WAVE ALOFT
THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SWING INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ADD SOME
FORCING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH BULK OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL CAPTURING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. LACK OF MORE
APPRECIABLE BL SHEAR AND UNIMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SUPPORT
MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE TO STORMS WITH PULSING INTENSITY. COULD
SEE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE INTO THE EVENING.

TEMPS...CONSIDERING THE WARMER START THIS MORNING WHICH MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE MISSED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUN AND QUICK HEATING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...TRENDED HIGH TEMPS TOWARDS
HRRR/4KM NAM WHICH PLACE MOST AREAS AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS. EXPECT MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TEMPS AS LOCATION OF THE
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHARP GRADIENTS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 00Z THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AIDED
BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS E/NE FLOW BRINGS DRIER
AIR BACK SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR
IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SHARP INVERSION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PROMPT THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CATALYSTS IN THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO COALESCE INTO A LINE OR
LINES OF WEAKER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT
PRESSES EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

REMNANTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND MAY EVEN SEE
SOME RESTRENGTHENING OF STORMS LATE DAY IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BEST CHANCE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NICE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH RAIN AND STORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL KICK OUT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING SUPPORTS CARRYING BEST CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS...WITH THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A
FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80 DEGREES WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. AN
OVERALL MODEL BLEND CAPTURED THIS THINKING WELL. GENERALLY TRENDED
TOWARDS WARMER MAVMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH IT. THE RESULT OF
THIS SETUP WILL BE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN IN BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. STUCK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CUT
BACK SUPERBLEND/S POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THUS AVOIDS POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOPPING.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

LOOKS LIKE MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT DEVELOP AFTER ALL...PER LATEST
CONSENSUS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW TO MEDIUM AT BEST THOUGH. HAVE REMOVED MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 10Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET AT LAF PER
RADAR TRENDS. THE ONCE WIDESPREAD HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE NOW
EVEN HINTING AT SMALL COVERAGE AT BEST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK/50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT TRENDS MATCH FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES. RAIN HAS STAYED OUT
OF CENTRAL INDIANA SO FAR...AND IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO START
ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL TUE 03Z. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
IS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT COULD FILTER INTO THE AREA
AT THAT POINT. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 70S AND ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...STAYING WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...REACHING
NORTHERN INDIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA
FAIL TO SHOW ANY DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE COLUMN. FARTHER
ALOFT...MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN A OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OVERNIGHT LOOKS WEAK...AS 850 WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 30
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING INTO THE FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE
FOR POPS TONIGHT IS LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP...MAINLY LATE
ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRY TO TREND
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE...COLLABORATION WILLING.

AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z...STILL LINGERING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGING RIDING SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST
FORCING FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVER 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH. THUS WILL TREND
POPS HIGH ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS BEST. GIVEN THE MIX OF SUN IN
THE MORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAVMOS.

A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING
ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HEATING IS LOST. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
FORCING LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS LINGER WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST A DEEPER LOW WITHIN THE LOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA. A
NEGATIVELY TILED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THAT TIME WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
OVER 4.5 G/KG. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND HIGHS COOLER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE...BUT WILL END UP COOLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

235 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DRAW IN WARMER AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FORM
THE LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS
TODAY... BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

FOCUS OF SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND PUSH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS WELL...NOW INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S WITH 58 TO 62 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OFF TO THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND COLD FRONT BACK IN EASTERN IOWA.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. EXACTLY HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES FROM
THERE REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS HI RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
FASTEST WITH INITIAL CELLS CONGEALING INTO LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE WHICH ARRIVES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAP/NMM MORE FOCUS ON THE WARM FRONT AND KEEP
ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED AND FURTHER NORTH. NAM/NAM 4KM SHOW SOME
SIMILARITY TO HRRR BUT SLOWER AND LESS ROBUST. GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS AROUND TO HELP USE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR
PROFILES DO INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. MID LEVEL JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE CONVECTION WITH
SOME HINTS OF A SMALL EML THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEING LOST.

HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS AND WENT WITH SOME
ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS.
PRECIP MAY LINGER LONGEST IN THE SE BUT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY
THIS POINT. TRIED TO LIMIT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WITH
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-24 POSSIBLY NOT SEEING MUCH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FAR S/SE AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GREATER SEVERE
THREAT SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. COOL DAY IN
STORE ALONG THE LAKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S VS MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TWO PRIMARY CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS PAIR OF
DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY
CLOSING OFF OVER NEVADA. AS THIS PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
WED...TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/FGEN WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. GOOD CROSS-ISOBAR FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
300K SURFACE WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8 G/KG. PW VALUES ALSO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THETA-E SURGE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUM
SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THURS. ADDED A BIT MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL TO POP
FORECAST...SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL AND INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL WED
NIGHT BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE. DID KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LOCKED TO OUR SOUTH AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE WILL EXIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

ROUND TWO (POTENTIALLY) ARRIVES IN SIMILAR FASHION LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR THOUGH
WITH LATEST GFS KEEPING SURFACE LOW AND ALL PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. CONTINUED WITH CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN IT IS AT
THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD AND FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICH AND LAKE MICHIGAN
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
END BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD
INTO NW INDIANA AND THE SBN TERMINAL AS THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE COLD MARINE LAYER ACCENTUATE
THE FRONT. ADDED IFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTH BEND DURING THE MORNING
FOR THESE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONE WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING
AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND GEMNH MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE EURO BEGINS RAIN CHANCES 6 TO 12 HOURS SOONER.
WILL TWEAK THE BLENDED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OTHER PERIODS.

STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FROM 45 TO 50 NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS BUBBLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AT THE H8 LEVEL THIS MORNING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
HIRES GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONVECTION DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. PROB SEVERE AND MRMS DATA HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THESE CELLS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL....HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN
REPORTED YET. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY TO 100%.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE GROWING MISSOURI MCS HAS PRODUCED FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY UP TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS
ONLY BEING HANDLED BY THE HRRR AND PARTIALLY THE 06Z NAM. I HAVE
UPDATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EXPANDED AND UPPED
THEM TO INCLUDE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
ERVIN

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING TOWARD SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AS LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST OVER THE CWA TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

BY 7 AM...THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AFFECTED COLD WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH TO REACH HIGHWAY 30. BY MID
MORNING...THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH DOWN TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND THE QUAD
CITIES. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...BY MID MORNING...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE MIXED WITH MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
HEATING THAT MAY HALT THE STRATUS FROM GOING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS CREATES A DAY WHERE THE SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHILE THE NORTH STRUGGLES THROUGH TO HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRATUS CAN STAY
OPAQUE THROUGH THE DAY...THAT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

DESPITE THE CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES TODAY...IS SHOULD BE DRY DAY
FOR NEARLY OFF THE CWA...AS ONLY THE FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MISSOURI ACTIVITY...WHICH
SHOWS A MORE LIKELY CHANCE TO DROP SOUTHEAST...MISSING OUR CWA ALL
TOGETHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOOKING SYNOPTICALLY...DESPITE THE WARM
FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF EASTERN IOWA FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
CONTINUE AS STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS USHER IN LOW DEWPOINTS.
THUS...ANY RAIN WILL RAPIDLY COOL OFF TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
THROUGH WETBULB AFFECTS. THIS WILL CREATE A COLD MARCH LIKE
NIGHT...WITH RAIN ARRIVING IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ONLY
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED AS CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
FARTHER SOUTHWEST STRATIFIES INTO A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF RAIN TONIGHT...RESULTS IN A NEARLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF DUBUQUE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA
AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH. STRONG FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
WITH A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE SOUTH LIFTING OVER THE
COOL AIRMASS IN THE CWA...DUE TO A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND COMING OFF
THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STALLED IN FAR
NORTHERN MO. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWAT`S OVER 1.30 INCHES.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH IN MO AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOURCE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
SCATTERED AND LIGHT. THE OCCLUDED LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE DVN CWA ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL
FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAIN...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND AN EAST WIND GUSTING TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TIME TO BRIEFLY DRY OUT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE MID WEEK EVENT IF NOT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH. IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IL AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEAR THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH.

HAASE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER AND LOW CIGS IN THE AM TOMORROW.
LOOKS LIKE THE IFR AND NOW MVFR DECK THAT MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH
STOPPED A FEW MILES FROM MLI. CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP AREAS SOUTH
IN VFR FLIGHT RULES. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH EARLY
TOMORROW. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DBQ HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING HAVE
GONE WITH PROB30 AT THOSE SITES.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

HAASE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A CHALLENGING AVIATION DAY AND NIGHT ARE IN STORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW STRATUS AROUND 800 TO 1500 FT SPREAD
SOUTHWEST OUT OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...LIKELY REACHING BOTH CID
AND MLI BEFORE STALLING OUT NORTH OF BRL. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY...TURNING ALL WINDS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KTS. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS DECK SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.
ERVIN

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON TWO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

HAASE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

OVERALL NO BIG ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEATHER WISE. WE ARE
DEALING WITH SOME TEMP SPLITS...AND ADJUSTED TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH
THE TRENDS. A FEW PASSING MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE UPDATE WAS MINOR AT
THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

CLOUDS ARE SCARCE OVERALL...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON SKY COVER FOR A
WHILE LONGER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE BLENDING OF OBS INTO THE
FORECAST RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE UPDATE MAINLY BLENDS LATE DAY OBS INTO THE NIGHT TIME
FORECAST...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...WITH
MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME MIXING HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
UNDER WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. WITH THIS DRIER
AIR...ANY TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT AT
BAY...LEADING TO A DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AS
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...CU SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE A
BIT...LEADING TO A RATHER PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
COOL OFF UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL SET UP A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 50S...WHILE THE MIXED RIDGES STAY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WILL SEND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...FEEL THAT
MODELS MAY STILL BE OVERDOING SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOWING FOR
WAY TOO MUCH CONVECTION. UNTIL SOMETHING CAN FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING VORT MAX CROSSES THE REGION...WE`LL BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MUCH CONVECTION AS WE WILL BE LACKING TRIGGERS. ALSO...THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ON THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS
WELL...SO THAT LENDS ITSELF TO LESS CONVECTION AS WELL. BY LATE IN
THE DAY (AFTER 21Z)...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY FIRES ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MORE
TO THE EAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW...SO STILL SOME QUESTION HOW
FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL REACH AND WILL BE MAINLY DETERMINED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PUSHING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. THUS...HARD TO
GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES. ALSO...WHILE WE ARE IN A MARGINAL
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...OVERALL SHEAR IS VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE. IF THE INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS IMPRESSIVE LIKE I
ANTICIPATE...THAN THE SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL COULD STILL BE SEEN BY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

AS THE VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY EXITS BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...WE`LL HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF TO BEING MUCH QUIETER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...ONLY
FALLING A TOUCH UNDER 60 FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE IN ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING SOME TEMPORARY DRY
WEATHER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOWING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE TO THE POPS TO MITIGATE SOME
OF THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL FORCING MECHANISMS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE POPS A TAD...BUT HAVE
STILL ALLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY...WITH TROUGHINESS
REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGHS RETREAT TO THE LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR REMAINS THE STORY FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
FOR TUESDAY AND THIS WILL AID IN CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN STORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAF SITES
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT OVERALL BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR/NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL...OVERALL WINDS DO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 15 KT RANGE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
118 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Overall, no major changes to the forecast for the remainder of this
evening and overnight. Continue to expect a dry overnight with a
weak impulse traveling across central IL/IN to keep bulk of
showers/storms north of the area. This feature will act to drop a
frontal boundary toward the area, which may bring a few light
showers toward dawn but most likely just an increase in cloud cover.
Mild night with lows holding up in the 60s.

For tomorrow, latest guidance continues to suggest the combination
of a passing mid-level wave and daytime instability will spark a
round of showers and storms by mid-afternoon. Consensus of the hi-
res data shows this to initiate across southern Indiana, then track
into north central or central Kentucky. In coordination with
neighboring offices, bumped up chances into the 50 to 70 percent
range for parts of the area for mid/late afternoon into early
evening. Severe threat still is on the table with some loosely
organized multi-cell clusters producing damaging winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Now - Tonight...

Dry weather will continue this afternoon and through the much
overnight under influence of high pressure. For the remainder of the
afternoon, highs will max out in the 80 to 85 range with scattered
diurnally driven clouds. SW winds between 10 and 15 mph will gust up
around 25 to 30 mph at times.

Expect lows in the lower 60s tonight with increasing cloud cover
toward dawn. A few rain showers may be possible toward sunrise but
most spots should remain dry.

...Rounds of Showers and Storms through Midweek, Some Strong
Possible...

Tuesday - Wednesday Night...

By Tuesday, surface low will travel into New England with a trailing
cold front stretching across southern IL/IN/OH toward the Ohio
River. With destabilization in the form of low level moisture
convergence and heating ahead of the front, expect scattered showers
and storms to develop by mid to late afternoon. Additionally, a
subtle mid level perturbation will slide through the flow aloft,
helping to enhance deep shear a bit during this time. This could
promote some storm organization in the form of a few line segments
with a damaging wind threat. Heavy rain, lightning and some hail
will also be secondary threats. Highs should reach into the low 80s
on Tuesday.

Think we`ll see a drop off in coverage on Tuesday Night with the
passage of the wave and loss of heating. However, with the front
still in the area will keep lower coverage in the grids. Expect mild
lows in the low 60s.

Strong and negatively tilted shortwave ejects out of the Plains to
the upper Midwest during the day Wednesday through Wednesday night.
As this occurs, low level response will help to drag the stalled
frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front. This will allow
for scattered to numerous showers and storms along the warm front in
the morning. Then, another round of showers and storms is expected
once the better forcing arrives in the afternoon and evening.
Destabilization will be in question, but should be able to at least
realize some instability in the warm sector by afternoon/evening.
This combined with the forcing and enough deep layer shear for
organization a few strong storms will again be possible. Main
threats for severe would be damaging winds. Additionally, heavy
rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, and some hail will also be
possible with any stronger storm.

Coverage of storms should be diminishing by dawn on Thursday with
temperatures falling into the low 60s by this time.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2016

The active, progressive upper level flow with periodic impulses
moving through the lower Ohio Valley will continue late in the work
week, this weekend and into early next week. Overall, an unsettled
pattern for the area.

On Thursday, one round of showers and thunderstorms will likely be
exiting during the early morning hours as a PV anomaly passes
through the region. The surface low remains back to our northwest,
so with daytime heating and modest lapse rates, MUCAPE around 1000
J/kg develops during the afternoon. Shear profiles aren`t
impressive, so storm mode likely to be pulse or loosely organized
multicells. Likely some residual boundaries around so scattered
afternoon and early evening showers/storms will be possible. Look
for highs right around 80.

Friday continues to look like our driest day of the week as we`re in
between weather systems. High pressure originating out of the lower
Great Lakes will provide drier, slightly cooler air. Look for partly
to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s to near 80, warmest
near the TN border.

The western trough will reload and eject another surface low out
into the central Plains and mid-Mississippi valley this weekend.
Still plenty of uncertainty in the strength and position of the
surface low and warm front Saturday morning, but overall the chances
of showers/storms will be on the increase during the day. Higher
confidence that we`ll see additional rounds of storms Saturday night
into Sunday, and likely into the first part of next week. The
environment will favor stronger to potentially severe storms as well
with a more favorable shear environment. Latest 7 day rainfall
outlook shows the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rain through early
next week so depending on how storms play this week, we may have to
monitor the hydrologic side of things more closely.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Will be watching upstream convection for potential for showers
around the SDF/LEX terminals this morning, otherwise expecting VFR
conditions with south to southwest winds the first half of the
period. Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with timing of
afternoon storms, but it does appear some upper level energy will
cross to our north and provide focus for some storms to develop in
the late afternoon into evening hours. Brief IFR conditions are
possible as well as gusty winds with these storms. Any storms should
be dissipating by the end of the period, but a frontal boundary will
stall over the region and should provide a focus for additional
showers/storms the next few days.

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Convective trends this evening appear to matching closer to the
GFS, Canadian, NAM-WRF (NMM & ARW versions), and the HRRR guidance
for tonight through Tuesday night. Current convection over
Central/Southwest Illinois poised along low level convergence
smack in the middle of a SSW-NNE oriented theta-e plume. As the
night progresses, this theta-e axis should become more oriented
west to east, pulling richer moisture toward Southwest
Indiana/Southeast Illinois/Northwest Kentucky between 3 am and 7
am CDT. This could produce isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity in that area. Noticed even SPC has modified their
convective outlook northwest of the WFO PAH CWA reflecting a
greater severe potential along the I-70 corridor over MO/IL for
the rest of tonight.

The adjustment this evening for Tuesday will be an increase in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the middle and late
afternoon hours, a lesser coverage (especially along the AR/TN
borders) Tuesday evening, then a ramp up of PoPs/Weather late
Tuesday night. Numerical guidance has been hinting at the
propagation of an MCS southeast across the area late Tuesday
night.

Other sensible weather elements, such as sky, temperatures,
dewpoints, and winds appear to be in line. Was not surprise by the
expansion of the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk area over the area for
Tuesday. Cannot rule a stray storm producing severe or near severe
hail or wind.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Models are in pretty decent agreement on the track of our
upcoming weather system. Models show a surface low over eastern
Colorado at 12z Tuesday, moving over southeast Nebraska by 00z
Thursday. The warm front associated with this low will be hanging
out north of the PAH forecast area at 12z Tuesday, dropping south
into our region by Tuesday evening and remaining in our area
through Wednesday. The surface low will then bring the trailing
cold front across our area Wednesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop along the
warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night, and along and ahead of the
cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. ECMWF and GFS are in
good agreement showing scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, with the best chances in our northern
counties along the warm front. Models then show a push of moisture
into our western counties late Tuesday night, spreading east
through the day Wednesday, continuing into Wednesday night. Went
with increasing chances from north to south late tonight into
Tuesday, the went with likely pops north to good chance south
Tuesday night. Went with likely pops area wide on Wednesday, with
chances gradually decreasing from the west Wednesday night.

SPC has included all but our southern Kentucky counties in a
marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday into possibly Tuesday
evening due to some pretty impressive instability along and south
of the warm front. For Wednesday into Wednesday evening, our
western two thirds of counties are in a slight risk and the rest
of our area in a marginal as the approaching cold front moves into
our already unstable air mass. As for rainfall amounts, our
overall totals should be highest across our northern counties
where the warm front will trigger some heavier rainfall Tuesday
into Tuesday night, but isolated higher amounts will be possible
area wide Wednesday into Wednesday evening with thunderstorm
activity.

Our southerly winds will bring not only plenty of moisture into
the region for the next couple of days, but continued very warm
conditions. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through
Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight through Wednesday night
will mostly be in the lower to middle 60s. Highs Tuesday will be
in the 80 to 85 degree range, then the additional cloud
cover/precipitation on Wednesday will drop readings back several
degrees into the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to multiple rain events and
some model disparity where timing, track, and coverage are concerned
with these events.

On Thursday small precipitation chances exist over the northeast
third/half of the CWA on the back side of a system that crosses the
region Wednesday night. The frontal boundary associated with this
system is forecast to become stationary just to our south Thursday
night and right now that period looks dry.

A closed H5 low moving northeast out of the four corners region on
Friday will induce a surface low on the aforementioned boundary over
the panhandle of Texas which will begin to generate an overrunning
rain event that is forecast to develop showers and thunderstorms
into our far western counties on Friday. Models not seeing eye to
eye too well with the onset of precipitation so it may not begin as
early as originally thought.

As the system slowly approaches, precipitation chances continue to
ramp up Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances area wide
being Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of the system. In
its wake, precipitation chances are expected to taper off from the
west but will linger from Sunday into Monday due to the presence of
upstream upper level energy and decent moisture.

Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1204 am CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Challenging TAFs continue with the 06z Tuesday issuance. Kept with
MVFR ceilings with the KCGI TAF, with sharp ceiling changes at
KEVV and KOWB, especially during the last 6-9 hours of the TAF
period as convective elements work along surface boundary. Most
variation in weather conditions will likely range between 14z
Tuesday to 03z Wednesday.

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINAS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING SLOWLY
NWD OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE WEAK RIDGING LINGERS
CLOSER TO HOME. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS FOUND...OTHERWISE WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL PER LATEST SFC OBS.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION BEING OF A
DIURNAL NATURE...EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE FUN STARTS LATER TONIGHT AS THE WRN CONUS LOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DROPS THROUGH IT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. COMBO OF INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...EXCELLENT MOISTURE (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCH PWATS) AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
AT MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR
TIMEFRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT ARE PROGGED. PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AS WELL AS
STEEP LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY
IN PLACE BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
INSOLATION AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL BE SO NO
SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.

RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. COMBO WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY. ENTIRE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR WEDNESDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY/CAPE/LAPSE RATES ALL
IMPROVING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

.MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 83 69 86 / 10 70 40 20
LCH 73 81 72 84 / 20 60 30 20
LFT 73 84 74 85 / 10 50 40 30
BPT 73 83 72 85 / 30 60 20 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

230 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV MOVING THRU
THE UPR GREAT LKS EARLY THIS MRNG. BUT SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ENTERING CONFLUENT ZN BTWN NW FLOW OVER ONTARIO ARND CLOSED UPR LO
OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND WLY SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS...
THIS DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS HINTED BY WARMING CLD TOP TEMPS
OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA/SN IS OVER
THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE EXITING/WEAKENING DISTURBANCE...BUT
LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO LINGER FARTHER W...
ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL GUSTY NE FLOW IS UPSLOPING. BUT MUCH DRIER LLVL
AIR IS JUST TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN ONTARIO.
THE 00Z YPL RAOB IS QUITE DRY IN THE LLVLS...WITH H925/H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS 17C/11C. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE CLDS ARE
MOVING STEADILY TO THE S ACRS LK SUP WITH THIS DRY ADVECTION IN THE
LLVL NE FLOW. THIS CLRG LINE IS APRCHG THE KEWEENAW AT FCST ISSUANCE.
LOOKING TO THE W...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER SRN BRANCH SHRTWV SLIDING
E THRU CENTRAL MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING...SHORTER
TERM MODELS ALL SHOW STEADY LLVL DRYING TODAY IN CONTINUED STEADY/
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI PRES. GIVEN
THE STLT CLD TRENDS/FALLING SFC DEWPTS JUST TO THE N...PREFER THE
MODELS THAT SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE LLVL DRYING. SO EXPECT LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND END BY ABOUT
12Z...LAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NCNTRL. SOME LO
CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD DISSOLVE N-S BY
LATE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV IN MN IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND BRING SOME
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC MAINLY TO THE WI BORDER AREAS...INFLUX OF
LLVL DRY AIR WL PREVENT ANY PCPN AND LIMIT IMPACT TO JUST MORE MID/HI
CLDS. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER...NE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
RECOVERY TO NO HIER THAN ABOUT 40 NEAR THE LK. TEMPS WL TOP OUT ARND
50 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

TNGT...ANY LINGERING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV WL CLR
THE FAR SCENTRAL BY 00Z THIS EVNG...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NGT AS THE SFC HI PRES IN ONTARIO EXTENDS A SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE
UPR LKS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
A PERSISTENT LIGHT NE FLOW TO THE S OF THE HI CENTER LINGERING OVER
ONTARIO. BUT WITH PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO
END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.

AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

ENE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HI
PRES RIDGE BUILDS S THRU ONTARIO AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. E TO
NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU SAT TO THE S
OF PERSISTENT HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

726 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS LLVL DRY AIR IN THE NE FLOW TO THE S OF BLDG HI PRES IN ONTARIO
PUSHES INTO UPR MI...WHICH HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AND CLEARED THE LO
CLDS AT CMX...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS AT SAW AND IWD TO CLEAR THIS
MRNG. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

410 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS WEAK LOW SLIDES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PCPN WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FM W TO E AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AT KCMX AND KSAW. WITH SHALLOW MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING... RESULTING IN
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...BEGINNING FIRST
AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

402 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LLVL DRYING TRENDS/
IMPACT ON LINGERING LGT PCPN THIS MRNG AND THEN MIN TEMPS TNGT AS
DRIER/CHILLY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES WL DOMINATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

125 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED...BUT
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NRN WI. WITH WEAK SRN STREAM RIDGING
OVER THE SE CONUS AND A TROF CONTINUING TO PERSIST IN SE CANADA...
THE SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR EASTWARD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW
BTWN THE RIDGE AND TROF. RAIN THAT LIFTED THRU THE FCST AREA LAST
NIGHT WAS REPLACED BY SCT SHOWERY PCPN DURING THE MORNING UNDER A
PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS AFTN...APPROACHING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO MORE ORGANIZED BANDS
OF SHRA AND EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. SOO
WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SNOW OCCURRING TODAY WITH EVEN A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. FARTHER W...KERY OB HAS INDICATED SNOW AS PTYPE AT
TIMES WITH SFC TEMP OF 33 TO 34 DEGREES. PROBABLY CAN`T RULE IT
OUT...BUT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS UNANIMOUSLY DON`T SUPPORT SNOW AT
KERY. UNDER CLOUDS AND PCPN...IT`S BEEN ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS E
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH WEAKENING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GIVEN ONGOING THUNDER
JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER
ROUGHLY THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE NE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT THAT THE PCPN WILL
AT LEAST MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER AS LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FALLS AOB 0C. MIGHT SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. IF CHANGEOVER IS A LITTLE QUICKER...THERE
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.

SOME PATCHY -SN MAY LINGER OVER THE NCNTRL EARLY TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SHARP CLEARING LINE NOTED THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO...JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IS SIGN OF WHAT`S TO COME ON
TUE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SHOW
DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM N TO S TUE MORNING...WHICH LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
SHOW SHEARED OUT VORTICITY PASSING ALONG OR JUST S OF THE MI/WI
BORDER...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE S THRU
THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE...GRADIENT NE WIND AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C AT MIDDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 40F.
WELL INLAND...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING ACROSS WI TO SOUTHERN LWR MI...STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE WINDS...GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
INTO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL
PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 20KT THU-SAT ACROSS
THE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 44 32 51 / 0 10 0 0
INL 30 54 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 35 51 34 58 / 30 20 0 0
HYR 32 51 31 58 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 31 44 32 51 / 0 10 0 0

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-
142-147.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.

Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.

Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.

And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Precipitation has come to an end for all of eastern KS and
northern/western MO. MVFR clouds over Nebraska will rotate southward
overnight, likely grazing southern parts of the KC area before
lifting and scattering later in the morning. Better chances for
ceilings below 2000 feet will be around MCI northward.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Hawblitzel

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
draped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.

Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.

The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.

Glass

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Warm front currently lies across northeast Missouri into west
central and south central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms, some
severe, are moving across central Missouri. This line will likely
affect KUIN and possibly KCOU through 04Z. Thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this line at the St. Louis area terminals, or may
occur with this line around 04-05Z. Conditions with the storms
will include MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities as
well as hail and wind gusts over 50kts. Dry and VFR conditions are
expected after 06Z.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a line that will move across the terminal around
04Z. Conditions with the storms will include MVFR or possible IFR
ceilings and visibilities as well as hail and strong wind gusts.
Dry and VFR conditions are expected once the storms pass.

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
654 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.

Glass

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Britt

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR conditions have spread across the KC terminals with MVFR clouds
still just hanging on across KSTJ. Storms from earlier today have
cleared the terminals and will not return other than a chance of
showers at the northern KSTJ terminal which might keep the MVFR
clouds in up north. Otherwise, skies will start to clear out
sometime Thursday with winds veering to the northwest late in the
day.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.

The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Thursday. Westerly surface winds will persist tonight into
Thursday in the wake of the cold front that moved through during
the day.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.

Glass

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.

Gosselin

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.

Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.

Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.

Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.

By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster