Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/27/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

128 PM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS IN THE DESERTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGE AND
LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AGAIN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL BEFORE WARMING DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGHER
PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WEST.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER
NEVADA...AND A VORT MAX IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED 850 MB WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 KT...WHICH IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ALSO STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SHOWED...AS
THEY ARE CURRENTLY 14.4 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...AND 8.2 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL. CURRENTLY...WINDS AT MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS ARE INCREASING...WITH
GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH. THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...CREATING STRONGER WINDS IN ALL AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES AND INTO THE DESERTS WHERE 35-45 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE. IF THESE STRONG WINDS
SURFACE IN THE DESERTS...IMPACTS SUCH AS POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SAND/DUST WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DESERTS WHILE WIND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES TO
THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE SAN GORGONIO WILDERNESS IN
PARTICULAR...GETTING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHERE
A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING NEAR A HALF INCH AND UP TO
1.1 INCHES. THERE WERE ALSO SOME REPORTS OF A DUSTING OF SNOW UP
IN THE BIG BEAR AREA. CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SHOWS
SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 0.05-0.25 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
AT AROUND 7000 FEET CURRENTLY AND COULD FALL TO 5500-6000 FEET
THIS EVENING...WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH THE
STRONG AND COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...HIGHS
TODAY WILL FALL TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.

A TRANSITORY WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING SLIGHT WARMING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CREATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN...INCREASING CLOUDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND LIKELY PRODUCING AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE COLD CORE OF
THE LOW CLOSE TO...OR OVER...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. FORECAST
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE...WITH A TRACE TO 0.10 INCHES IN THE COASTAL AND DESERT
AREAS...0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...AND 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6500-7500
FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. 850
MB WINDS ONLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15-20 KT...AND ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS INCREASE TO ONLY ABOUT 7-10
MB...SO EXPECT A WEAKER WIND EVENT THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPERIENCING TODAY.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RIDGING NUDGING EASTWARD INTO
THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.AVIATION...
252030...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT TO BKN CIGS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 4500 FT MSL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
FEW TO SCT WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 03Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 20
KTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE. SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 2500
FT MSL WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER SD COUNTY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 30 KTS...GUSTING 35 TO 50 KTS. LOCAL GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG
THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND...ALONG WITH STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS.
ROTORS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.MARINE...
130 PM...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30
KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KTS. A STEEP NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 14
FT...WITH LOCAL SEAS TO 16 FT NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. THE WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. LOWERING SEAS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE GALE WARNING...LAXMWWSGX...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.BEACHES...
130 PM...A LARGE...BUT SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
WINDS...THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY 3 TO 5 FT SURF AT THE BEACHES
WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SD COUNTY. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PLEASE SEE THE BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

922 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS...AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNDER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING AGAIN FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL
BEFORE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND AS A HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO
NUDGE INTO THE WEST.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER
NEVADA...AND A VORT MAX IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED 850 MB WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 KT...WHICH IS
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS INDICATED. ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALSO STRONGER THAN THE MODELS SHOWED...AS THEY ARE
CURRENTLY 14 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...AND 7.3 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO THERMAL. CURRENTLY...WINDS IN AT MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT
SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS ARE GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...CREATING
STRONGER WINDS IN ALL AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES
AND INTO THE DESERTS WHERE 35-45 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ALOFT COULD
SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING ACCORDING TO HI-
RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE. IN FACT...GFS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WIND
GUSTS OF 55 MPH POSSIBLE AT PALM SPRINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
THESE STRONG WINDS SURFACE IN THE DESERTS...IMPACTS SUCH AS
POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SAND/DUST WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE DESERTS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE...THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE SAN GORGONIO WILDERNESS IN
PARTICULAR...GETTING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHERE
NEAR A HALF INCH AND UP TO 0.91 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. THERE WERE
ALSO SOME REPORTS OF A DUSTING OF SNOW UP IN THE BIG BEAR AREA.
CURRENTLY THERE IS STILL A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SAN
GORGONIO WILDERNESS AREA...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. THE HRRR SHOWS
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS THEN
RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS/DESERTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.25 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE AT AROUND 6000-6500 FEET CURRENTLY AND
COULD FALL TO 5500-6000 FEET TODAY...WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH OF
SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH THE STRONG AND COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW
JUST TO OUR NORTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL FALL TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

A TRANSITORY WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BRING SLIGHT WARMING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CREATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN...INCREASING CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW CLOSE
TO...OR OVER...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER
TO AROUND 6500-7500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

.AVIATION...
251530...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN CIGS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2000 AND
3500 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 4500 FT MSL THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SCT WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT MSL AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 17Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 03Z TUESDAY.
LOCALLY REDUCED VIS DUE TO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 10 TO 30 KTS...GUSTING 35 TO 50 KTS. LOCAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
03Z TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST AND SAND...ALONG WITH STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS. ROTORS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.MARINE...
830 AM...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 40 KTS. A STEEP NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WINDS...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT...WITH LOCAL SEAS
TO 16 FT NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. THE WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY. LOWERING SEAS AND
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
THE GALE WARNING...LAXMWWSGX...FOR MORE DETAILS.

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LARGE...BUT SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
WINDS...THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY 3 TO 5 FT SURF AT THE BEACHES
WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PLEASE SEE THE BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

318 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. COOLER ON MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...AND A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DRY AND A LITTLE
WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT COOLING AGAIN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON
FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL BEFORE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20
MPH...MOSTLY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS AND THE HIGH DESERTS
WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS. ABOVE 7000 FT...A DUSTING OF SNOW WAS
OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE MTNS...TRACE
AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THE WEST AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS HAVE REPORTED WIND
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO THE ROCKIES BY TUE
MORNING. EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS..ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO RAIN. THE WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

FAIR AND WARMER ON TUE AND WED AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLDER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...CREATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...INCREASING
CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A CHANCE FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN...THE DETAILS OF
TIMING...TRAJECTORY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE COLD POOL OF THE UPPER LOW CLOSE TO...OR
OVER...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
AROUND 6500-7500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THEY BOTH INDICATE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AND WEAK OFFSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...
250900...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN020-030 WITH TOPS TO 5000 FEET MSL THIS
MORNING. GRADUAL SCATTER OUT FROM THE COAST TO VALLEYS AND COASTAL
SLOPES BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING IN SPOTS
TO 50-60 WITH LLWS AND STRONG UDDFS IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS. SURFACING
MOUNTAIN WAVES AND ROTORS OVER THE DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY IMPACTING PSP AND TRM. PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON
COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
200 AM...GALE FORCE GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKING TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. FOR DETAILS CHECK THE GALE WARNING...LAXMWWSGX.

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A BIG SHORT PERIOD SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL RESULT. FOR DETAILS
CHECK THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX...AND THE SURF
FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
312 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move through western Nevada with a few showers
and brisk northwest winds expected this afternoon. After a break
Tuesday, unsettled weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday. A
warming trend with dry weather is looking more likely for next
weekend.

.SHORT TERM...

An upper level low is currently centered across Nevada with areas of
light showers extending roughly from Fallon to just north of Pyramid
Lake. Current water vapor and IR satellite show drier air aloft
beginning to push across northern California which has diminished
shower activity and thinned cloud cover. Couple this with radar
trends and the latest HRRR simulations, do think that most of the
precipitation activity will remain across Pershing and Churchill
counties with only light shower activity along and west of the Hwy
395 corridor. As such, have expired the Winter Weather Advisory
across the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County.

Brisk northwest winds will continue today with steady 15-25 mph
winds expected with gusts around 30-35 mph possible. This may
result in rough lake waters especially on Pyramid Lake and have a
Lake Wind Advisory in place today as a result. These northerly
winds may produce some terrain enhanced snow showers across Mono
County but all told snow showers should remain light with 1-2" of
snowfall possible mainly across eastern portions of Pershing and
Churchill counties.

Showers will diminish by this evening with a drier and quieter day
expected for Tuesday as we briefly see shortwave ridging aloft. This
will be followed by the next upper low which is expected to arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will be a little warmer so
mainly expecting rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms
possible by Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will remain around
6,000-6,500 feet during the afternoon so could see some snow and
rain mix at lake level. This system is also a quick moving trough
so that should also limit significant accumulations. Fuentes

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

Low pressure hangs around on Thursday with moisture and instability.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms remain through the day on
Thursday with peak instability in the afternoon, especially for
areas south of Interstate 80. Snow levels will remain around 6000-
7000 feet, although some stronger showers could bring snow levels
down to around 5000 feet at times. Low pressure moves out of the
area on Friday, with clearing skies and temperatures rising back up
into the upper 60s in western NV and upper 50s in the Sierra.

Beyond Friday, there is much uncertainty in the forecast as models
have been flip-flopping on potential of a shortwave dropping out of
Western Canada and into the Great Basin. This would potentially
bring a dry back-door cold front to the forecast area for the
weekend. Ensembles are also showing big differences in the forecast
as well. We didn`t make too much change in the forecast for the
weekend due to low forecaster confidence. Hoon

.AVIATION...

A broad area of low pressure continues to affect the region with
moisture and shower activity. A few isolated to scattered showers
are possible this morning around KRNO/KCXP, although it does look
like the best potential will remain further east near KLOL-KNFL.
Periods of MVFR CIGS are likely through early this afternoon for the
area terminals, especially at KTRK and KTVL.

Gusty North-Northwest winds up to 25-30kts are expected through the
day, with gusts up to 40kts at KMMH. Low pressure moves out of the
area for Tuesday with lighter winds and clearing skies. Hoon

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

CA...None.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

1104 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LONG RANGE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:49 PM PDT SUNDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POST COLD
FRONTAL W-NW WINDS ARE WELL LINKED IN THE VERTICAL. PLUS SURFACE
WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACV-SFO 7.2 MB AND SFO-SAC 4 MB. A MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER NEVADA MONDAY THE LOW THEN REACHING
NORTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AROUND THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LED TO A FEW CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD-UPS
WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER. SINCE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OR NEGATIVE BUOYANCY HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION; IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODEL
FORECASTS HINT THAT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
BETWEEN 11 PM TONIGHT - 5 AM MONDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR AN UPDATE.
CLOSE TO OPTIMUM VERTICAL MIXING MAINTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT THUS
NOT ONLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT IT SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE
SURFACE WINDS DE-COUPLE COULD HAVE UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING.

A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
NORTH AMERICA. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE TUESDAY THEN LOWER WED-THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH SHOWERS SWINGS
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THERE`S RECENTLY BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL
AGREEMENT INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK BUT THERE`S SOME DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THE 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THERE`S POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR COASTAL AREAS. SO FAR WE`VE SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT PT
REYES WITH 43 MPH KSFO AND SOME 35-40 MPH IN THE MARIN HILLS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE OCCURRING
JUST A FEW MILES INLAND WITH AFTERNOON READINGS INTO THE 60S.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND CHILLY LATE APRIL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BUT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
PRECLUDE ANYTHING TOO COLD.

MONDAY WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SOME
CONTINUED BLUSTERY WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HILLS AS
ANOTHER COLD SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND GENERATES SHOWERS
OVER THE SIERRA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STAY IN THE 60S ONCE
AGAIN...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE DAYTIME NORMAL ARE NOW AROUND
THE MIDDLE 70S.

NO BIG CHANGES FOR TUESDAY BUT SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW
FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING WITH SOME LOWER 70S SHOWING UP BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY WEDS MORNING SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS EARLY AS 12Z WEDS FROM A
COLD BUT FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD THIS SCENARIO FEATURED FOR DAYS NOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN DRIER. NONETHELESS IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR WEDS. IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND BIG SUR HILLS AS THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE
SHOWERS ON WEDS...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE INTERIOR HILLS DUE TO
CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
BROADBRUSH WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND QPF TOTALS 0.15-0.25 ON
AVERAGE. THE WEDS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DOWN TO AROUND 4 CELSIUS. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN WEDS EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY BUT COOL DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
CONTINUED DRY BUT CHILLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MODELS NOW STARTING TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND GETTING UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY BUT PEAKING LATER NEXT WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE BUILDS...THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES TO THE COAST AND PERIODS OF
OFFSHORE WINDS ENSUE. ECMWF HAS 850 MB TEMPS TO 18 CELSIUS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 PM PDT SUNDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY CLOUDS FORMING
LOCALLY OVER THE HILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRATUS
TO A MINIMUM ALONG THE COAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...COASTAL ZONES FOR SF BAY AREA AND
SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST TIL MIDNIGHT
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
GLW...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL/CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

1010 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...EVENING UPDATE...

WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE
DESERTS...BUT HAS SINCE COME INTO A LULL. EXPECT SOME RENEWED STRONG
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PICK
UP SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE MEAGER FOR OUR REGION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH JUST SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE OVERWHELMING CONCERN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNALLY ENHANCED STRONG WINDS OVER THE COAST
AND INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY
WHERE THE GRADIENTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE
NOTED ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS AREAS...PEAKING MONDAY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE NOTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE IN REMOTE LOCATIONS. WE CONSIDERED ISSUING A HIGH WIND
WARNING BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOCATIONS AND IMPACTS WERE NOT DEEMED
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WARNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE.

...REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 159 PM PDT...

VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CREATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN...INCREASING CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THE
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE WETTER AND ALSO QUICKER WITH BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE
REGION. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW CLOSE
TO...OR OVER...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6500-7500 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT
FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS THEY BOTH INDICATE RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING.

.AVIATION...
250400...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN015-025 WITH TOPS TO 5000 FT MSL THROUGH
10Z. AFTER 10Z THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM THE COAST, FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING IN THE INLAND AREAS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING WINDY. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AFTER 16Z
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 50-60
WITH LLWS AND STRONG UDDFS. SURFACING MOUNTAIN WAVES AND ROTORS OVER
THE DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IMPACTING PSP AND TRM. PARTIAL
MTN OBSCURATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY REPORTED WEST WINDS 17G23KT SUNDAY
EVENING. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-30 KT AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT.
STRONGEST GALES WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 9-12 FT NORTHWEST SWELL AT 10-13
SECONDS FROM 290 DEGREES. THE WINDS AND SWELL WILL PRODUCE COMBINED
SEAS OF 9-14 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

.BEACHES...
900 PM...A 10-12 FT NW SWELL WILL PEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO THE BEACHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURF WILL BE 3-6 FT SURF AT MOST BEACHES WITH SETS TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND.

PUBLIC...HARRISON/BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
953 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.Synopsis...
Unsettled and cool weather Sunday and Monday, then again Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

.Discussion...
Cluster of strong thunderstorms developed around Maxwell this
afternoon and moved ESEwd...interacting with the Delta Breeze
E of SAC...and forming a line of storms from around Granite Bay Swd
to Rancho Seco. This line moved E into the Motherlode. As the
cluster of storms neared or intersected with the Delta Breeze
between Rocklin/Granite Bay...radar indicated a potential rotating
head configuration but with very weak circulation...and did not
receive reports of any rotating storms there. Activity is finally
windind down with lingering showers and isolated over zone 69 S of
I-80.

The center of the trough will be over Central Nevada on Monday and
may bring some wrap around moisture and showers to the Sierra
Nevada. Snow levels look to be around 7000 feet during the day.
Most other areas should remain dry, cool with breezy to locally
windy northerly winds for the valley. The strongest winds look
like they should be over the west side of the valley. Nly pressure
gradients have increased to 8 mbs or so...a little stronger than
forecast...so the models may be slightly understanding the strength
of the Nly gradients initially. Wind advisory may be needed on Mon
for the Valley given the gradients...925 mbs winds and forecast
strength of the subsidence in the wake of the vort max moving
through the Nly flow in the wake of the Central NV upper low.

Tuesday will be dry and warmer as a ridge builds over the area
with lighter northerly flow. The dry weather looks short lived as
another system moves into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Wednesday`s system should bring a little bit more precipitation to
the region with the best chances continuing over the foothills and
mountains. Have left out any mention of thunderstorms for now but
at this point perhaps a low probability for some on Wednesday
looks possible. Several inches of snow also looks possible near
pass levels. /JHM

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Upper low continues to dig southward into SoCal Thursday
maintaining a slight chance of wrap around showers over the
eastern foothills and mountains...from near Lassen Park southward.
Drier with warming temperatures and locally breezy North to East
wind Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds over NorCal.
&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions tonight except for local MVFR/IFR lingering
showers and evening thunderstorms over the mountains and
foothills...snow showers possible above 5000 feet. Areas of
northerly surface winds gusting 20 to 30 kt through 18z with LLWS
possible in the Valley overnight. Winds may gust up to 35-40kt
Monday afternoon. EK
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
912 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Latest radar/satellite imagery and surface reports indicate light
scattered rain/snow showers across the region with thunderstorms
remaining isolated due to the lack of surface heating and only
weak large scale forcing. Colder air was advecting into far
northeast CA and northwest NV where temperatures had fallen into
the 30s. So precipitation in these areas is likely switching over
to snow. The 00z GFS continues to show a band forming across
northwest NV this evening and then shifting east and south Monday
morning while the NAM/latest HRRR are much lighter with the QPF.
While latest radar trends make confidence of the GFS scenario a
bit lower, there is still time for this band to form based on
current track of upper low. So we will continue the snow advisory
for Surprise Valley and northwest NV.

As the band works southeast, light rain and mountain snow will
continue across the basin and range into Monday morning, possibly
extending back into the Reno-Carson City area. We are not
anticipating any commute issues for the I-80/Hwy 50 corridors as
valley temperatures will be a bit too warm. The gradient will
tighten overnight and brisk northwest winds are expected across
the area for Monday. Also, latest model projections show the
airmass stabilizing along and north of I-80 during the afternoon.
So showers may be mostly south and east of Reno-Lovelock in the
afternoon. Hohmann

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through western Nevada tonight and Monday.
Light snow is expected near the Oregon Border tonight while most
locations see a few showers and brisk northwest winds. After a
break Tuesday, unsettled weather returns for Wednesday and
Thursday. A warming trend with dry weather is looking more likely
for next weekend.

SHORT TERM...
Scattered showers have developed across Northeast California and
Western NV this afternoon and will continue into the evening. With
the cloud cover, instability has not been as great as anticipated,
but a few thunderstorms remain possible through sunset. Localized
rainfall amounts up to 1/3" are possible in the heaviest showers.
Snow levels are running around 6000 feet into this evening, but
will drop as the cold upper low moves in.

Overnight and into Monday, have made a few adjustments based on
latest trends and model forecasts. The main adjustments were to
increase the precip chances north of a Susanville-Lovelock line
and increase winds a bit more Monday afternoon. With the upper low
diving into Western NV tonight, the GFS, HRRR and EC all show an
area of deformation setting up from Austin, NV to Cedarville, CA.
QPF amounts are averaging 1/4" to 1/2" in this band. Snow levels
are expected to drop to near 4000-4500 feet. Issued a winter
weather advisory for light snow amounts near the Oregon Border
where it is more likely to stick to roads as they will be in the
cold air longer.

Monday morning that band dissipates as the upper low moves into
southern NV. The low is moving through a little faster and will
take the upper cold pool with it resulting in more stabilization.
Still expect some showers in the afternoon, but they are looking
more likely to be confined to areas south of highway 50. It still
looks quite cool, and a brisk NW wind of 15-25 mph with higher
gusts will make it feel colder. With these winds aligned with
Pyramid Lake, issued a Lake Wind Advisory there.

Monday night and Tuesday will see quiet weather under a short wave
ridge. Then the next upper low is expected to arrive Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This one will not be quite as cold, although it
will have some moisture. Forcing also does not look overly strong,
so at this point we are expecting showers again with a few
thunderstorms possible. Wallmann

LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...
Active weather continues late next week as mean upper level
troughing remains fixed over the Western United States. Low
pressure that will move into the region Wednesday will slowly exit
into the Inter-Mountain West Friday night into Saturday. Snow
levels remain around 6000-7000 feet through Friday before rising
7000-8000 feet over the weekend. Kept mention of thunderstorms for
Thursday afternoon since sufficient instability remains.

Models have changed a little from previous runs for Saturday and
Sunday. Previously, deterministic runs were showing another low
dropping into the backside of the trough impacting Western Nevada
and the Sierra. Now, deterministic runs and ensembles are favoring
a more eastward track with low pressure pushing through Eastern
Nevada and Utah. As a result, have begun to back off of
precipitation chances over the weekend. Correspondingly, have
increased daily highs for the weekend as well with temperatures
approaching 70 degrees for Western Nevada Valleys. Boyd

AVIATION...
Low pressure will continue to impact the region this afternoon
into Monday at all terminals. Expect periods of IFR/MVFR in the
Sierra by Monday morning with periods of snow. MVFR conditions
will be possible for Sierra Front with snow levels dragging down
to around 4500 feet. It is possible that there could be periods of
IFR and light rain/snow mix at KRNO and KCXP Monday morning as
well. However, surface temperatures for Sierra Front terminals
will be too warm to allow for much/any snow to stick on the
tarmac.

Winds will increase with gusts generally up to 30 knots for
Sierra Front terminals while winds at KTVL/KTRK being lighter due
to precipitation influences. KMMH may see a few intermittent gusts
up to 40 knots Monday. Boyd/Hoon

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ005.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ070.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

159 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO THE
AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUE PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ALONG
WITH A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL QUICKLY PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK
WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW FOR COASTLINES HAVE KEPT
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 50S. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER DAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WATCHING A BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS UPDATE NEW
YORK. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING THIS OVER AROUND 21/22Z.
IF THAT OCCURS THEN ANTICIPATE EITHER VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AS LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MADE A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BUT OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST
DIM SUNSHINE THRU THE CLOUD COVER.

REGARDING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN SURFACE PRESSURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE ONLY ABOUT 1015 MB...THIS PROMOTES A DEEP
BLYR WITH MDL SNDGS SUGGESTING MIXING TO 800 MB. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AWAY FROM COASTAL SEABREEZES. MAY HAVE TO SHAVE A FEW DEGS OFF
THESE HIGHS IF MID DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINS PERSISENT. SO OVERALL A
PLEASANT DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WITH DIM SUNSHINE THRU
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TUE ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ***

AS CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE...LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND TUE.
MODEST PWAT PLUME TO WORK WITH AS ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT +1 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. FAIRLY BAROCLINIC WAVE BY LATE APRIL
STANDARDS ALONG WITH MODEST FGEN. HOWEVER NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON
LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF FGEN WHICH IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME RANGE.
NONETHELESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND FRONTAL
SCALE FORCING WILL YIELD A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE QPF.

TIMING...DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE
GUID ENVELOPE WITH PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 21Z TODAY ACROSS HFD-BAF.
WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE ANY RAIN AFTER 21Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. HEAVIEST/STEADIEST RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUE. SOME
MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY ON DEPARTURE OF RAIN. GFS THE FASTEST WITH
PRECIP ENDING LATE TUE AFTN WITH REMAINDER OF GUID SUPPORTING TUE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE...DESPITE SUB FREEZING 925 MB AND 850 TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN MA
LATER TUE...WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB WILL YIELD A COLD RAIN FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS WARM LAYER BEGINS TO ERODE LATER TUE RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MA.
ANY BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW WILL HINGE ON PRECIP
INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING/MELTING. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. YES...IT/S STILL APRIL IN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS...CHILLY AIRMASS ON POLEWARD SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COMBINATION OF PRECIP...LOW WETBULB TEMPS AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
YIELD TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THUS BLENDED IN THE COLDER MODEL 2
METER TEMPS AND THIS YIELDS HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING WORCESTER. NOT MUCH WARMER ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S BUT FEELING COOLER ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA WITH NE WINDS 15-20
MPH OFF THE COOL OCEAN WATERS.

QPF...GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 36+ HRS AWAY FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND WHICH
OFFERS 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES. GEFS HAS 70% AND GREATER PROBS FOR 0.50
INCH OF QPF. IN ADDITION GEFS MEAN CENTERED AROUND 0.50 INCHES.
THUS APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED HOWEVER DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME
RANGE TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVIER MESOSCALE RAIN BANDS.
IN ADDITION GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO NORTHWEST
HARTFORD COUNTY. NEVERTHELESS BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

THUNDER POTENTIAL...WITH FRONTAL WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT CONFINED TO SOUTH COAST INCLUDING
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

H5 CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE/COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC AND LABRADOR THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WORK WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION IN A W-NW CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS...PUSHING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION...FIRST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
A SECOND FRI INTO SAT. LOWERED H5 HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

THE CANADIAN CUTOFF UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY EXIT TO GREENLAND
BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE W-NW FLOW WILL LINGER. LARGE HIGH PRES
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH
N TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT TIMING IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE S COAST TUE EVENING AS NOSE OF
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SE OUT OF N NY/CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER
ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS A FEW HOURS LONGER. MIGHT SEE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A LITTLE SLEET AS THE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL AND W MA...BUT THIS WILL
NOT LAST LONG.

LEFTOVER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ALONG THE S COAST WILL DIMINISH
TUE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE S COAST
INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S...AND
MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FROST IN SOME
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN...NAMELY PORTIONS
OF COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY AS WELL AS INTERIOR SE MA...N RI AND NE
CT.

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE TO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...RANGING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF WED NIGHT...THEN
SOME CLOUDS WILL START TO WORK INTO N CENTRAL CT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN
WITH DEWPTS LOWERING TO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. MAY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ALONG THE
S COAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
WITH FAST MOVING FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...WILL SEE ANOTHER H5
SHORT WAVE PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE
00Z MODEL SUITE...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP FROM
FAST MOVING LOW PRES PASSING S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE IN THU
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST THU
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT E-NE...SO WILL NOT BE AS COLD THU NIGHT
SO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MAINLY RAIN. KEPT LOW CHANCE GOING AT MOST.

THE LOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...EXCEPT REMAINING COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. MODELS TENDING TO KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DO NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE THIS FAR OUT SO KEPT DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS GOING FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
RAIN /MAINLY LIGHT/ BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z.

TUESDAY...MVFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH IFR POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
MA. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. NE
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT POSSIBLE. LOW POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO VFR.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. LIGHT S-SW
WIND WILL BECOME E-SE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. LOW RISK OF
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AFTER 21Z WITH STEADIER RAIN
ARRIVING AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR EARLY THU...THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. LOW CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY THU NIGHT. IMPROVING FROM N-S AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE S COAST EARLY...THEN
IMPROVING. OTHERWISE...VFR.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY ... LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY TOO.

TONIGHT ... WINDS BECOMING ENE LATE AS LOW PRES ENTERS PA. RAIN
OVERSPREADS RI WATERS LATE.

TUE ... LOW PRES TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE IN ENE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH LOW RISK OF A
FEW 25 KT GUSTS VICINITY OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WATERS EASTWARD
TOWARDS WESTERN GEORGES BANK. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG
LIMIT VSBY.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY...
THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO N-NW. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT FROM
EAST OF CAPE COD TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS LIKELY NEEDED. REDUCED VSBYS IN
RAIN AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM N-S.

WEDNESDAY...
N-NW WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL SHIFT TO SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT THERE. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT
DURING WED...THEN WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY...
EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS THU...SHIFTING TO S-SW ON THE EASTERN
WATERS THU NIGHT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. REDUCED VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
WATER E OF CAPE COD.

FRIDAY...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO E-NE ACROSS ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON...
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
REDUCED VSBYS EARLY FRI IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY THERE
ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE
SHOWERS MOST, IF NOT ALL NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OVERDONE,
BUT THEY MAY LAST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS IN COLLIER COUNTY TO REFLECT THIS, BUT ONLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER AROUND 01Z THROUGH 06Z.
ALSO, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN, WHERE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MAINLY DRY, THERE`S JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING
DUE TO GULF SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO
THE COAST AND AFFECT THE KAPF VICINITY THROUGH 04Z-05Z, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ALMOST A REPEAT OF TODAY, WITH E/SE SFC WINDS
AROUND 10-12 KNOTS YIELDING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BY 18Z. ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SHORT DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA, WITH THE SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES TRYING TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THESE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE INTERIOR POPPING UP BY
THURSDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY, WITH THE INTERIOR ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COASTAL AREAS ONLY INTO THE LOWER
70S.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING THE CWA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
MAINLY AS THE BREEZES REACH THE INTERIOR. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

MARINE... AN GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE PATTERN. SEAS WILL RUN
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 84 72 86 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 74 85 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 72 85 74 87 / 10 10 0 10
NAPLES 70 85 71 87 / 20 20 20 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

757 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
THE GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY THERE
ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE
SHOWERS MOST, IF NOT ALL NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OVERDONE,
BUT THEY MAY LAST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS IN COLLIER COUNTY TO REFLECT THIS, BUT ONLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER AROUND 21Z THROUGH 06Z. ALSO,
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN, WHERE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SHORT DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 84 72 86 / 10 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 74 85 / 10 10 0 10
MIAMI 72 85 74 87 / 10 10 0 10
NAPLES 70 85 71 87 / 20 20 20 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

738 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SURROUNDING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AFTER AROUND
19Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS SHOWERS
OR STORMS MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
INCLUDE A DEEP/SHARP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST...WHICH THEN TRANSLATES INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE...AND THE MOST IMPORTANT TO OUR
FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FEATURE
STEADILY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ENERGY WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WE WILL DISCUSS THIS FEATURE
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS HIGH RIDGES ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO
COVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A
RESULT...THE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY RELAXED ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A WELL-DEFINED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
FAIRLY EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVING/INCREASING TO
6-6.5C/KM. GIVEN THE LOWERED HEIGHT AND CERTAINLY LESS LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION THAN WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE...ANTICIPATE A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MEANING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...AND WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. ONCE AGAIN...A WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 17-18Z. ONCE THE SEABREEZE BEGINS TO
PUSH INLAND...LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
COMPLIMENT THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS ALOFT TO ALLOW A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN...MUCH IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE 30-50% RANGE AFTER
20Z...HOWEVER...NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE POPS FROM THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITE ARE ACTUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. SINCE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 30-50% POPS SEEM
A REASONABLE APPROACH. GIVEN THE MORE UNIFORM THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA...WILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY AS WELL. FCST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30,000 FEET AGL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TODAY FOR
UPDRAFTS TO REACH HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTING POTENTIAL. ALSO...THE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS (-12C AT 500MB
FOR EXAMPLE) ALLOWS FOR DECENT CAPE PROFILES THROUGH THE -10C TO
-30C HAIL GROWTH ZONE... PER LATEST NAM/ARW/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
ANY STORMS THAT CAN SUPPORT A STRONGER AND/OR LONGER LASTING UPDRAFT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. THE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE
SLOW MOVING TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MAKES A QUICK EXIT TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AND
RESULT IN WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR HEADS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FROM A HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AGAIN ALLOWS SEA-
BREEZE FORMATION TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES AFTER 17Z.
A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FL
PENINSULA. CERTAINLY THE UPPER LEVELS THERMODYNAMICS ARE LESS
FAVORABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD...AND THEREFORE WILL SWING THE FORECAST BACK THE OTHER WAY
TOWARD MORE ISOLATED AND SHALLOW CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LEAVING US IN A PREDOMINANT E TO SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT VERY HOSTILE TO ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE THAT MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER COULD DEVELOP WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS BUT GIVEN
THE HOSTILE MID/UPPER LEVELS THEY WOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SHOWERS
AND QPF WOULD BE VERY LOW. THAT BEING SAID MOST OF THE AREA CAN
EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AREA WIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DAILY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING 90 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DAILY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP THE COASTAL REGIONS A TAD COOLER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...LOWER
70S LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MARINE... THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PREDOMINANT LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 3-4 PM
EDT...AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOUR BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 35 PERCENT
ANY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH ARE
UNLIKELY...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE INLAND EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 69 86 69 / 50 50 20 10
FMY 86 67 85 67 / 50 50 20 10
GIF 85 66 87 66 / 30 20 20 10
SRQ 80 69 81 67 / 30 30 10 10
BKV 86 64 84 63 / 40 40 20 10
SPG 84 70 84 71 / 40 40 20 10

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18/FLEMING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

355 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
INCLUDE A DEEP/SHARP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST...WHICH THEN TRANSLATES INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE...AND THE MOST IMPORTANT TO OUR
FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FEATURE
STEADILY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ENERGY WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WE WILL DISCUSS THIS FEATURE
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A WELL-DEFINED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
FAIRLY EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVING/INCREASING TO
6-6.5C/KM. GIVEN THE LOWERED HEIGHT AND CERTAINLY LESS LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION THAN WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE...ANTICIPATE A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MEANING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...AND WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. ONCE AGAIN...A WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 17-18Z. ONCE THE SEABREEZE BEGINS TO
PUSH INLAND...LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
COMPLIMENT THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS ALOFT TO ALLOW A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN...MUCH IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE 30-50% RANGE AFTER
20Z...HOWEVER...NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE POPS FROM THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITE ARE ACTUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. SINCE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 30-50% POPS SEEM
A REASONABLE APPROACH. GIVEN THE MORE UNIFORM THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA...WILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY AS WELL. FCST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30,000 FEET AGL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TODAY FOR
UPDRAFTS TO REACH HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTING POTENTIAL. ALSO...THE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS (-12C AT 500MB
FOR EXAMPLE) ALLOWS FOR DECENT CAPE PROFILES THROUGH THE -10C TO
-30C HAIL GROWTH ZONE... PER LATEST NAM/ARW/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
ANY STORMS THAT CAN SUPPORT A STRONGER AND/OR LONGER LASTING UPDRAFT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. THE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE
SLOW MOVING TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LEAVING US IN A PREDOMINANT E TO SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT VERY HOSTILE TO ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE THAT MAYBE A
STRAY SHOWER COULD DEVELOP WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS BUT GIVEN
THE HOSTILE MID/UPPER LEVELS THEY WOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SHOWERS
AND QPF WOULD BE VERY LOW. THAT BEING SAID MOST OF THE AREA CAN
EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AREA WIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST
AT KLAL/KPGD AROUND DAWN...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE THE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCT SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z) INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY TERMINAL MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHOWERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

.MARINE...
THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE PREDOMINANT LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT EACH
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AFTER 3-4 PM EDT...AND
THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOUR BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 35 PERCENT
ANY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH ARE
UNLIKELY...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE INLAND EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

340 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
INCLUDE A DEEP/SHARP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST...WHICH THEN TRANSLATES INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE...AND THE MOST
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FEATURE STEADILY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ENERGY WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WE
WILL DISCUSS THIS FEATURE IN MORE DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A WELL-DEFINED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
FAIRLY EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVING/INCREASING TO
6-6.5C/KM. GIVEN THE LOWERED HEIGHT AND CERTAINLY LESS LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION THAN WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE...ANTICIPATE A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MEANING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...AND WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. ONCE AGAIN...A WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 17-18Z. ONCE THE SEABREEZE BEGINS TO
PUSH INLAND...LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
COMPLIMENT THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS ALOFT TO ALLOW A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN...MUCH IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE 30-50% RANGE AFTER
20Z...HOWEVER...NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE POPS FROM THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITE ARE ACTUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. SINCE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 30-50% POPS SEEM
A REASONABLE APPROACH. GIVEN THE MORE UNIFORM THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY AS WELL. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY THAT UPDRAFTS REACH HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
AND LIGHTING POTENTIAL. THE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING
TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE INLAND EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

330 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A WELL-DEFINED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACTUALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
FAIRLY EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVING/INCREASING TO
6-6.5C/KM. GIVEN THE LOWERED HEIGHT AND CERTAINLY LESS LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION THAN WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE...ANTICIPATE A MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MEANING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S...AND WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. ONCE AGAIN...A WELL-DEFINED SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 17-18Z. ONCE THE SEABREEZE BEGINS TO
PUSH INLAND...LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
COMPLIMENT THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS ALOFT TO ALLOW A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN...MUCH IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE 30-50% RANGE AFTER
20Z...HOWEVER...NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE POPS FROM THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUITE ARE ACTUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. SINCE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE 30-50% POPS SEEM
A REASONABLE APPROACH. GIVEN THE MORE UNIFORM THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY AS WELL. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
TODAY THAT UPDRAFTS REACH HEIGHTS CONDUCIVE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
AND LIGHTING POTENTIAL. THE SCT CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING
TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOUR BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 35% ANY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH ARE
UNLIKELY...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
THEREFORE...NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FOG POTENTIAL...ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE INLAND EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The initial wave of showers and storms have departed into Indiana
by 9 pm. A stationary front remains stalled across south-central
IL, roughly just north of I-70. The latest HRRR and RAP updates
show that a return of showers and scattered storms looks to hold
off until later tonight for areas W-SW of Galesburg to Springfield
to Effingham. Areas east of there have a decent chance of
remaining dry until during the day on Wed. Have updated the precip
chances to remove rain the rest of the evening, and slow down the
advance of showers after midnight. However, may still be over-done
with PoPs. Temps look on track to remain relatively stable the
rest of the night under an initial blanket of cirrus, and
eventually thickening mid clouds.

We are still expecting the showers and storms that develop
tomorrow afternoon could become severe for areas SW of Springfield
to Effingham, where SPC has defined a Slight Risk of severe
storms.

Update forecast info is already available.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms eastward across central and east central/southeast
IL rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN
by early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving
toward St Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward
across southern IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott,
Morgan, Sangamon, Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead
of MCS in moderately unstable warm sector south of I-72 with
Capes 2000-2600 J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these
thunderstorms could become strong to even severe with damaging
winds and large hail. Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening,
but this will be short lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over
central KS to deepen to 993 mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska
by Wed morning and pulls frontal boundary back northeast toward
southwest IL. Showers and scattered thunderstorms to spread ne
into central and southeast IL overnight especially late tonight
into Wed. Lows tonight range from around 50F from Peoria and
Bloomington north to around 60F in southeast IL from I-70 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Area of showers and thunderstorms have exited southeast of DEC and
CMI as a cold front has pushed southeast of the Wabash river early
this evening. VFR conditions expected most of this evening over
central IL with broken to overcast mid level clouds and scattered
lower clouds. Breezy northeast winds over central IL behind cold
front to advect MVFR clouds (bases of 1-2.5k ft) over northern IL
sw into central IL by overnight and especially impact I-74 TAF
sites reaching BMI first around 06Z. A 996 mb surface low
pressure deepening over central KS to lift toward the NE/IA/MO
border Wed afternoon. This will pull the frontal boundary over
central MO and southern IL back northward into sw IL on Wed
afternoon. This to develop and spread showers and scattered
thunderstorms ne across central IL late tonight and Wed morning,
with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions expected. Then showers may
become more scattered Wed afternoon with a few thunderstorms still
possible. Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15 kts with gusts
18-24 kts to veer more southeast by Wed afternoon as warm front
approaches central IL.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

902 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
848 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

FOG HAD STARTED TO ROLL INTO LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WAS SHORT LIVED WITH VISIBILITY AND CLOUD BASES
RISING PER WEB CAMS THIS EVENING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH DRYING IN SFC-950 MB LAYER
SEEMINGLY WELL CORRELATED TO OBSERVED TRENDS. THUS HAVE BACKED OFF
FOG MENTION ALONG THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO PULL POPS FROM FAR SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT
A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IL
WHERE DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED POPS LOWER
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
303 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE AREA.

A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE/DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
...THEN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY LATE THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...DURING THIS PERIOD...A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE PRESSURE PATTERNS DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF COOL LAKE
MODIFIED AIR OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...TEMPERATURES COULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...BUT
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIKELY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE A RATHER
WET PERIOD OVER THE REGION AS 850 MB WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LOW
THREAT FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES
UP OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME MODEST
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE
BEST AREAS WILL BE SOUTH...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD SET UP SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSE
PROXIMATE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IT ALSO APPEARS HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER MY FAR SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH 50S ARE LIKELY...AND EVEN
COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHGAN.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
320 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY WE WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO ANOTHER
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SYSTEM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE IN
QUESTION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TO OUR NORTH. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM ENDING UP SLOWER THAN CURRENT
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST COULD RESULT IN A SLOWER ONSET OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THAN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. AT THE
PRESENT...I HAVE HELD OFF THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

MAIN CONCERNS:
* IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVE AND CIG TRENDS INTO WEDS AM
* MVFR VSBY TRENDS
* OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
* SHRA DEVELOPING WEDS AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
* LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TSRA WEDNESDAY EVENING

AREA RESIDES IN BETWEEN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND CIGS
HAVE TRENDED LOWER THE PAST FEW HRS TO IFR IN NORTHEAST IL AND NW
IN. CIG TRENDS ARE A BIT UNCLEAR...AS CLEARING OVER LOWER MI IS
ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID/LATE
EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWING VFR FOR A TIME BEFORE POSSIBLE
DETERIORATION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WONDER IF IMPROVEMENT IS
OVERDONE...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE...BUT DID INDICATE MVFR AT 04Z
IN TAFS. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR THROUGH THAT TIME...THOUGH
BASES MAY START TO IMPROVE BASED ON TRENDS AT LAKE SHORE WEBCAMS.
TRENDS WITH LOWER VSBY ARE ALSO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE...AS
ORD/MDW/GYY HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AFTER HAVING DROPPED TO LOW
MVFR AND IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST WAVE COULD SPREAD LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY
TOWARD AREA LATE MORNING/MID DAY BUT EXPECTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO PREVENT IT FROM REACHING TERMINALS. NEXT WAVE IN LATE AFTERNOON
SHOULD FOCUS INTO RFD AREA...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY PREVENTING MUCH
IN WAY OF PRECIP FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...SO BACKED OFF TO VCSH
THERE. FINALLY...STRONGEST WAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AND
EXPECTING ANY DRY AIR TO HAVE ERODED...SO BROUGHT IN PREVAILING
SHRA TO THE ORD 30-HR TAF. EMBEDDED TSRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND LEFT OUT OF ORD TAF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH.

.MARINE...
207 PM CDT

NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LAKE...WINDS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN SOME TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
SPREADS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THURSDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EAST...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS
IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS OVER THE LAKE NEVER GET TOO
STRONG AS THE GRADIENT IS NOT SUPER STRONG BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BUT SPEEDS WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES >=4FT AND POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS AT
TIMES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ENE FETCH WILL
MAINTAIN WAVES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 FT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE INDIANA NEARSHORE EXPIRATION TIME JUST FOR MORE OF
AN EAST WIND CUTTING DOWN WAVES FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
THOUGH...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGHER WAVES ON THE INDIANA SHORE THURSDAY.

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

244 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
227 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON UNFOLDED ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AS
TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO
HELPED TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD SHOWN A
CHANNEL OF STRATUS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WISC DOWN TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE STRATUS WHICH COULD FURTHER
AGITATE THE MID-LEVELS AFT 21Z. DCAPE THIS HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE AS
A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR ARRIVAL IN THE MID-LVLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA/FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHERN IL AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
IOWA...ADDS TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT ZONE AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS INITIALIZATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN
ILLINOIS...THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND QUICKLY ADVANCE AND GROW BY 22-23Z.

ONCE CONVECTION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME INCREASED HELICITY AS THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN IL THAT AN ISOLATED ROTATING
UPDRAFT COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE INCREASED DCAPE OF NEARLY 1000J/KG AND THE
STEADILY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL.

BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE VECTORS ALL
POINTING TOWARDS A SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND 30-40KTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK END TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE CONCERNS OVER THE AREA BY
1-2Z. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS THIS FEATURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS MID
40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THEN FOR TUE BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AS MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES
TEMPS ALOFT INTO THE 8 TO 11 DEG C...WHICH COUPLED WITH AN EXPECTED
STRATUS LAYER ARRIVING COULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS REMAIN
MILD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND COULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TUE AFTN.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

BEACHLER

.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL WET PERIOD IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION IN A WEAKENING STATE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW 50S INLAND AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...IN THE 40S ON THE LAKE FRONT...AND IN TO 60S FAR SOUTH. WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND AS
A RESULT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE
MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION IS ACHIEVED.

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER THE FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LAYER OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVLEOPING WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KFT AGL...HOWEVER
AS OF MIDDAY THE VERTICAL GROWTH TO THE CUMULUS LAYER DOES NOT
LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...WHICH COULD DELAY THE TIMING FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS 22Z FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN
IL...THEN QUICKLY INCREASEING IN INTENSITY BY 23Z AND APPROACHING
THE CHICAGO METRO TAF SITES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
AND PUSH EAST OF THE ORD/MDW SITES BY 00Z TO PERHAPS JUST AFTER
00Z...WITH CONVECTION ENDING BY 1Z TUE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE AIRFIELDS...SO EXPECT ONCE
CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY. THEN
OVERNIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE AND QUICKLY FLIP WINDS
TO NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN A STRATUS LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH BASES APPROACHING 1500FT
AGL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS GOING BELOW 1KFT AGL AFT
DAYBREAK TUE.

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
304 AM CDT

HEADLINES...REPLACED THE GALE WATCH WITH A GALE WARNING FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS WAVES TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE IL NSH AND TUESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTN FOR THE
INDIANA NSH WATERS.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NE WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN END LATE THIS AFTN WHILE WINDS ON THE
SOUTH HALF WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AS THE WEAKENING LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST LEADING TO HAZARDOUS WAVES IN THE
NSH WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON PROBABLY
LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR AT LEAST THE IL NSH
WATERS. THE SOUTHERN END OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
ROTATES OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS WEEK WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS
TO OVER CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Main concern in the short term remains with the severe weather
potential. CAPE values already in excess of 1000 J/kg across areas
northwest of the Illinois River, where the cumulus field has only
recently started to fill in. Best wind fields are further north
across Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, but some modest 0-6km
bulk shear values of around 30 knots were analyzed on the 18Z SPC
mesoscale analysis. Boundary located just ahead of the thinning band
of stratocumulus and seen as a fine line on the Davenport Doppler
radar just northwest of the Quad Cities as of 2 pm. This will likely
be the trigger for storm development over the next couple hours,
with latest HRRR model showing development by around 3 pm. Bulk of
that particular line progged to mainly be north of us with it
scraping the northern parts of the CWA through sunset, but with
further development a bit further south along the I-55 corridor
toward 6-7 pm. Severe threat will be on the wane by mid evening,
although a few stronger storms will still be possible over east
central Illinois.

With more of a multi-cell configuration this far south, have kept
PoP`s in the 30-40% range, with the threat shifting southward with
time. By about midnight, the northern CWA should be dry, with the
higher PoP`s continuing to spread into southeast Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Latest models have remained fairly consistent regarding their
guidance over the next several days, and forecast does not require
significant changes at this time. Forecast area will continue to be
impacted by predominantly southwest upper-level flow with systems
ejecting toward the region from the southwest U.S. every couple of
days. Downstream blocking pattern over eastern Canada & Greenland is
forecast to persist at least until the weekend which will tend to
deflect the disturbances on a more southerly track than their
original trajectory. This storm track will keep forecast area a
little cooler than was anticipated a few days ago (although still
near seasonal normals), and push the main severe weather threat
south of the area as well.

Tuesday should start out mostly dry across the forecast area, except
in the southeast where a front will still be hanging around. Then,
precipitation chances will ramp up, especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as vigorous wave (currently moving into Four Corners
region) approaches the Midwest. Thursday into Friday should be
mostly dry as we lie between systems. A final system, at least for
this forecast package, is expected to bring showers/storms to the
area for the weekend. This system is larger and slower moving than
the ones earlier in the week, and will likely result in a more
widespread/drawn out precipitation event.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Not a lot of change to the previous TAF set in regards to
scattered convection developing later today, but have made some
minor adjustments to the timing. Coverage is still uncertain
enough to go more than a VCTS mention, but will amend later once
it becomes more clear. Gusty south-southwest winds to around 25-30
knots this afternoon should subside toward 00Z. As a frontal
boundary settles southward late tonight, a trend toward the west
will occur, and areas near KPIA/KBMI likely to go more north or
northeast by late in the forecast period. With the frontal
boundary settling over the area, there are some indications of
potential MVFR ceilings after 12Z, especially north of this
boundary. Right now, will keep ceilings just above 3000 feet until
this becomes a bit more clear.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

114 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...1029 AM CDT

TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES THIS MORNING...ALREADY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S BY 10 AM ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TOWARDS 80 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERHEAD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CHANNEL OF STRATUS OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST ILLINOIS STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS WAS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST...AND EXPECTED TO STEADILY THIN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN IL.

THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AS WELL AS TIMING. WHILE SFC INSTABILITY IS POISED TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE 0-3KM LAYER...IT IS AN
APPROACHING 50KT MID-LVL WIND FIELD THAT IS CONCERNING AS IT
MERGES WITH A CONVERGENT AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BETWEEN
21-23Z...ADDING TO THE SHEAR WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. ONCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SOME STEADY/QUICK GROWTH INTO A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-23Z THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TURNING INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND THREATS.

ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY 2-4Z AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

.SHORT TERM...
344 AM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN LAKE ENHANCED COLD FRONT AND FREE FALL IN TEMPS
EARLY TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER IOWA IS QUICKLY MEETING ITS DEMISE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
SUSPECT IT WILL PASS THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE OTHER THAN
CLOUDINESS. A 997MB SFC LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING BUT STEADILY WEAKEN ALONG THE WAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND
SHEARS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE
SOME CLOUDINESS...STILL LOOKING FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TODAY
LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...EVEN ALONG THE LAKEFRONT AS
MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING THE WARMTH RIGHT UP TO THE
SHORELINE.

CONVECTION IS REALLY THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. AFTER SHORTWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING REALLY HARD TO FIND
ANY FEATURE TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IN FACT...IF ANYTHING
LOOK FOR SOME VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW QUICKLY FILLS. DESPITE THE LIMITED
TO NON-EXISTENT SUPPORT ALOFT...MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS (CAMS) BREAK OUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS POOL IN THE MID 50S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 60 ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW
80S. EVENING SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST SHOW LARGE POOL OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH AS FORECAST TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH INSTABILITY...THOUGH IT
DOES LEAD TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WHETHER A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
COULD DEVELOP AT BASE OF THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

CERTAINLY CONCERNS ARE THERE WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING AND POTENTIAL
CAPPING...BUT GIVEN THE UNANIMITY OF THE CAMS IN FIRING AT LEAST A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...FELT SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE
HOLDING ONTO LOW END LIKELY POPS TONIGHT. ASSUMING STORMS DO
INDEED MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50KT 500MB
JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. BOTH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE RANGE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE THE HAIL THREAT. LARGE T/TD
SPREADS AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z TUESDAY...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN MILD MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE SECONDARY LAKE ENHANCED FRONT
WHICH IS POISED TO BRING A QUICK AND DRAMATIC END TO OUR SUMMER-
LIKE WARMTH. LATEST MODE RUNS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PLOWING IN OFF
THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT INTO THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE. FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE TEMPS CRASH BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
344 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE A STEADY FEED OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP DELAY
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST YOU GET. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE HIGHER POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. REALLY NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS FAR NORTH AS WEAK LAPSE AND QUICKLY WEAKENING SYSTEM
KEEPS LOW LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL FOR LLJ DRIVEN STORMS FAIRLY
LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE RINSE AND
REPEAT WITH ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT WOBBLES INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. ONCE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING LOOK FOR CHILLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE TO
LOCK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

BEACHLER

.MARINE...
304 AM CDT

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1217 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Early morning scattered clouds have been thinning out and moving
east out of the area, with mostly sunny conditions at midday. Wind
gusts starting to reach the 25-30 mph range in several areas as
the low level inversion seen on the morning sounding mixes out.
Temperatures have already reached the 70-75 degree range across
the CWA. While clouds should start to increase later today,
CAPE`s expected to reach over 1500 J/kg by mid afternoon over west
central Illinois, helping to fuel some scattered thunderstorms.

Have done some tweaking to the timing of the convection, starting
the PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River around 2-3 pm and
bringing them about as far as Springfield-Rantoul by late
afternoon. Latest HRRR and the evening run of the NSSL 1km ARW do
suggest some scattered convection more in the Decatur-Champaign
area late afternoon, so have maintained the slight chance PoP`s in
that area but limited them to late afternoon. Greatest convection
still expected more across northern Illinois, shifting southward
as the boundary moves into central Illinois/Indiana tonight.
Northern parts of the CWA should pretty much be dry by midnight,
and have removed the post-midnight PoP`s in that area.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Storm system over eastern South Dakota as of 300 am is expected to
track east along a stalled frontal boundary over northern Iowa east
through southern Wisconsin later today. A cold front located from
the low over eastern South Dakota southward through eastern Nebraska
will track slowly east today and not get into our area until first
thing Tuesday morning. Surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s
were noted just east of the cold front and as the boundary shifts
east today, so will the moist axis into our area this afternoon.

As was advertised with most model data, the storms that occurred
last night in Iowa have dissipated with the latest surface analysis
indicating a weak boundary/remnant outflow boundary over east
central Iowa. Most of the high res reflectivity simulations off the
4km NAM along with the WRF-ARW and NMM indicate redevelopment in
west-central Illinois later this afternoon. Surface temperatures in
the lower 80s combined with dew points in the upper 50s will yield
ML capes of around 1800 in a few areas along and west of the
Illinois River later this afternoon. That combined with rather steep
mid level lapse rates and 0-6km shear values of around 40 kts will
bring the threat for scattered thunderstorms after 300 pm, some of
which may produce strong winds and large hail, roughly along and
west of a Springfield to Bloomington line.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

After another warm day, with showers and thunderstorms chances
through the afternoon and into the evening hours, a series of
weather systems will bring precip for most of this week. The first
wave has slowed on approach overall, delaying the onset of precip.
Also, models are having some consistency issues with the extent of
the southerly progression of the front before the next wave moves
into the Midwest and enhances the precip/storms for Tuesday night
and into Wednesday. Much of ILX sits in an area with limited severe
weather potential partially due to timing of the system late Tuesday
in the overnight hours. At any rate, the deep low over the southern
Plains ejects out and into the region, spreading best chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models still limiting
the progression of the warm front, keeping temperatures not quite as
warm for Tue/Wed ahead of the advancing storm center. By late
Thursday, the winds become more northerly and drier air slowly tries
to build back in for a brief break Thu night through later Friday.
The break looks to be short lived again as another wave moves out of
the long wave trof over the SW and into the region, bringing precip
back for next weekend. Overall, an active pattern, with more wet
than dry.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1044 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
1029 AM CDT

ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY 2-4Z AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.

BEACHLER

.SHORT TERM...
344 AM CDT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
344 AM CDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN MN/IA
STATE LINE AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE STILL
SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL FIRE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...BUT THINKING THE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADJUST TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SO LEFT WELL ENOUGH
ALONE FOR NOW. IF CONVECTION FIRES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD SEE SOME STORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE. IF THE FRONT AND ASSOICATED STORMS
DEVELOP LATER...MAY NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL.

WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 10 KT. THINKING AN IFR MARINE STRATUS DECK
WILL PUSH ON SHORE.

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS
TUESDAY MORNING.

JEE

.MARINE...
304 AM CDT

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM TUESDAY TO 4
PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1014 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected this forecast period. Thunderstorms
that occurred to our west last evening have dissipated as they
approached the Mississippi River early this morning. There were
some scattered mid and high clouds that were pushing into the area
from the storms that occurred last evening. Latest sounding data
indicates some higher based cumulus should develop late this
morning with bases in the 4000-5000 foot range. In addition, a
rather gusty south to southwest wind of 15 to 20 kts is expected
later this morning into the afternoon hours with gusts around 25
kts possible. As a frontal boundary slow approaches the area late
tonight and tonight, scattered convection will be possible, but at
this time, it appears coverage will be too limited to include much
more than VCTS. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts can be expected
after sunset this evening.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

600 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...STAYING WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...REACHING
NORTHERN INDIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA
FAIL TO SHOW ANY DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER WITHIN THE COLUMN. FARTHER
ALOFT...MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN A OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OVERNIGHT LOOKS WEAK...AS 850 WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND 30
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING INTO THE FRONT. THUS CONFIDENCE
FOR POPS TONIGHT IS LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP...MAINLY LATE
ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL TRY TO TREND
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST PERIOD ELSEWHERE...COLLABORATION WILLING.

AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT FAILS TO ARRIVE BY 12Z...STILL LINGERING WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN POISED TO SET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RIDGING RIDING SHORTWAVE TO
ARRIVE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BEST
FORCING FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND OVER 2K
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH. THUS WILL TREND
POPS HIGH ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS BEST. GIVEN THE MIX OF SUN IN
THE MORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAVMOS.

A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING
ALOFT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HEATING IS LOST. GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
FORCING LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS LINGER WILL TREND WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST A DEEPER LOW WITHIN THE LOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA. A
NEGATIVELY TILED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THAT TIME WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES
OVER 4.5 G/KG. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP
SATURATION. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS
AND HIGHS COOLER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONE WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING
AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND GEMNH MODELS KEEP US DRY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE EURO BEGINS RAIN CHANCES 6 TO 12 HOURS SOONER.
WILL TWEAK THE BLENDED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OTHER PERIODS.

STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
NORTH AND CENTRAL TO NEAR 70 SOUTH AND LOWS FROM 45 TO 50 NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN
THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME. WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO PUT IN THE TAFS AS HRRR REFLECTIVITY PROGS ARE ALREADY OVERDOING
THINGS BASED ON RADAR. WILL THROW SOME VCTS IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOUTH OF LAF AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR SO TONIGHT AND WEST AND
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS NOT GREAT...BUT HAVE IT THROUGH LAF
AT 14Z AND IND AND HUF AT 18Z. DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH BMG BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

328 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DRAW IN WARMER AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FORM THE
LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS
ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

FOCUS OF SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND PUSH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS WELL...NOW INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S WITH 58 TO 62 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OFF TO THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND COLD FRONT BACK IN EASTERN IOWA.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. EXACTLY HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES FROM
THERE REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS HI RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AND
FASTEST WITH INITIAL CELLS CONGEALING INTO LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLY
SEVERE WHICH ARRIVES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAP/NMM MORE FOCUS ON THE WARM FRONT AND KEEP
ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED AND FURTHER NORTH. NAM/NAM 4KM SHOW SOME
SIMILARITY TO HRRR BUT SLOWER AND LESS ROBUST. GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 21Z WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS AROUND TO HELP USE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR
PROFILES DO INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. MID LEVEL JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE CONVECTION WITH
SOME HINTS OF A SMALL EML THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEING LOST.

HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS AND WENT WITH SOME
ATTEMPT TO TIME OUT ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS.
PRECIP MAY LINGER LONGEST IN THE SE BUT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY
THIS POINT. TRIED TO LIMIT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WITH
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-24 POSSIBLY NOT SEEING MUCH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FAR S/SE AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GREATER SEVERE
THREAT SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. COOL DAY IN
STORE ALONG THE LAKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S VS MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TWO PRIMARY CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS PAIR OF
DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY
CLOSING OFF OVER NEVADA. AS THIS PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
WED...TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/FGEN WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. GOOD CROSS-ISOBAR FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE
300K SURFACE WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8 G/KG. PW VALUES ALSO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THETA-E SURGE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING CVA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUM
SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THURS. ADDED A BIT MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL TO POP
FORECAST...SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL AND INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL WED
NIGHT BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE. DID KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LOCKED TO OUR SOUTH AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE WILL EXIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

ROUND TWO (POTENTIALLY) ARRIVES IN SIMILAR FASHION LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR THOUGH
WITH LATEST GFS KEEPING SURFACE LOW AND ALL PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. CONTINUED WITH CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN IT IS AT
THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD AND FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WINDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO PICK UP AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVE
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO EXPECTED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND
LIKELY EXPAND/INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS VARYING
ON TIMING WITH ONE MODELS BRINGING STORMS INTO KSBN AS EARLY AS 1Z
WHILE OTHERS HOLD CLOSER TO 3-4Z WINDOW. MAY ADJUST TIMING BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT UNTIL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS DON`T WANT TO MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES WITH AMENDMENT ISSUED ONCE PICTURE IS CLEARER. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JT/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

1256 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP DRAW IN WARMER AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WARMER AIR WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION BOTH UPSTREAM
AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HRRR HAS BECOME MORE AGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
BACK ACROSS ILLINOIS IN THE 20 TO 22Z WINDOW MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
AND EXPANDING/ELONGATING INTO A LINE OF STRONG (SEVERE?) STORMS
THAT APPROACH FAR W/NW AREAS AS EARLY AS 00Z. IF THIS WERE TO COME
TO FRUITION...A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCT
SEVERE STORMS WOULD OCCUR AS SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE. NAM 4KM GIVES A SIMILAR SCENERIO IN TERMS OF STG/LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS BUT STICKS CLOSER TO THE 3-4Z ARRIVAL WINDOW IN THE
FAR NW. RAP SORT OF IN BETWEEN BUT RATHER NON DESCRIPT IN
HANDLING. TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...15Z HRRR SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 18 TO 20Z TIME FRAME
WELL AHEAD OF EVERYTHING. LOOKING OUTSIDE...CU ALREADY STARTING TO
FORM SUGGESTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE INCREASING AND COULD
BE SUFFICENT TO SPARK OFF SOME CONVECTION. SPC MESO ALSO SHOWING A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE AREA. TO ADD TO THE
MIX...SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLGT RISK EASTWARD FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHWEST OF A MONTICELLO TO WARSAW TO WAUSEON OHIO LINE. CHANGES
IN POPS/WX WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. DEEP
MIXING WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RAISED WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
FAVORED THE GFS TREND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHWEST LOW TRACK SOLUTION. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR STORMS TODAY...
BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.

THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE OVERNIGHT. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. SURFACE BASED NAM CAPES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 500 J/KG AS FAVORABLE 0-3KM SHEAR RISES TO 40 M/S. SO
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT
4 AM EDT WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LOW GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE AND
WAVERING WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE TO START THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
SFC LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. DID ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
CONTINUE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CATEGORICAL YET. BASICALLY
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND IN DAYS 4-7 WITH SLIGHT LOWERING OF POPS FROM
LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION AND STACKED
SYSTEM IN PLAINS LATE WEEK LIKELY COMING OUT SLOWER THAN MODEL
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER WED AND THU WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
PCPN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WINDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO PICK UP AS PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVE
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...JT/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1219 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

STILL ON TRACK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS H5
AND H3 JET APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WITH A SURGE IN THE SFC
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC AND STORM INITIATION
AROUND 19Z. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN OUR
ILLINOIS ZONES AS STORMS MATURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HIRES MODELS
SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR STRICTURES WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE STORM COVERAGE AS
SOME CAMS DO NOT PRODUCE ANY STORMS. THAT SAID ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE. HAVE UPDATED POP
GRIDS WITH CURRENT TIMING AND CHANGED THE SKY GRIDS AS WELL. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHERN WI AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEB AND THEN TO SW KS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WAS IN CENTRAL IA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS RAPIDLY DECAYED THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO ONLY A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE DVN CWA AND LACK OF SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES WERE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED WITH A
STEADY SOUTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

TODAY...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THERE ARE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE AWAY LEAVING THE MORNING HOURS (AFTER 6 AM) DRY.
THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE ON IF ANY CONVECTION CAN ERUPT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND BE NEAR LA CROSSE WI BY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRAG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THIS SHOULD YIELD MUCAPES OF
ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG. A 50 KNOT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HOWEVER...THE BIG PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT AS THE WINDS VEER UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE HRRR KEEPS THE CONVECTION IN WI CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
BETTER FORCING WHILE THE SPC 4.0 KM WRF-NMM FIRES UP CONVECTION
EAST OF THE MS RIVER NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF THE STORMS TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A DRY FROPA...AND LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

TONIGHT...ASSUMING CONVECTION FORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE
EVENING ENDING ANY RAIN CHANCES. WEST WINDS SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER...IN THE 50S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE FORECAST OF VERY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS REMAINS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS TONIGHT FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE TREND THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...OR THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING THURSDAY LOW APPEARS SIMILAR
WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY WEEK
AHEAD. THAT SYSTEM AS THE MOMENT IS SUGGESTED TO END THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND CUT OFF INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS IS THE CASE IN BOTH THE GFS
AND EC 00Z RUNS. IN ANY CASE...RAIN...AND PLENTY OF IT....IS
FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME BOUTS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER
LIKELY AS WELL DURING PERIODS OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AT THE TIME...WHILE THE WEEK LONG PERIOD OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING
MORE IN MESOSCALE BANDS OF ACTIVITY. THE RAINFALL RATES OVER ALL
SEEM TO OFFER A SOMEWHAT MORE BENIGN FLASH FLOODING FORECAST...AND
A SLOWLY EVOLVING RIVER RISE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY UNDER SHORT TERM HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S...MAKING FOR A CERTAIN
CANDIDATE FOR THE MOST PLEASANT DAY THIS WEEK. ONCE RAIN AND CLOUDS
ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT DRY DAY WITH ANY PREDICTABILITY MAY
BE FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE FAR COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AS RAIN COOLED AIR PERSISTS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE WET AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL KEEP US WELL BELOW
NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MVFR CIGS AT CID AND DBQ
WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS THIS FIELD WILL BREAK UP INTO A BAND
CU TO TCU. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER....THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. TOMORROW AM...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MVFR FOG AND
EVEN LOW MVFR CIGS. THINK DBQ HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AT THIS
TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CID MAY NEED TO HAVE THIS INCLUDED IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1033 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TEMPERATURES WERE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED WITH A
STEADY SOUTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. DUE TO WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY
FROPA SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS AT KBRL/KDBQ/KMLI. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO IL EARLY THIS EVENING ENDING ANY THREAT OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

658 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TEMPERATURES WERE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED WITH A
STEADY SOUTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TEMPERATURES WERE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED WITH A
STEADY SOUTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER. 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING INTO EASTERN IA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR JUST SHOWERS AT CID
AND HAVE VCSH WORDING AT THE RIVER SITES DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
TIED TO RATE OF DECAY OF ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE... NEXT FOCUS IS
WITH ISOLD TO SCT STORM POTENTIAL FROM MID MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIMITED CONVERGENCE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE THUS FOR NOW HAVE HANDLED AS VCTS WORDING AT THE
RIVER SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION... WITH MAINLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER PM STORMS ON
MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW FROM SSW AT
15-25 KTS THEN TAPER OFF AND BEGIN TO VEER TO WESTERLY MONDAY EVE
WITH FRONT ARRIVING.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1016 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QLCS OVER NRN/CNT TX PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD WITH A BIT MORE OF A
SE MVMT AFTER 06Z...AND IS FCST BY NUMEROUS SHORT RANGE MODELS TO
ENTER OUR INTERIOR EAST TX ZONES AROUND 4 TO 5 AM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...THEY ARE LESS CONSISTENT ON
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE ERODING THE
WARMER TEMPS AT H8 SEEN ON THE KLCH 00Z RAOB AND MAINTAINING A
ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE INCREASED QPF/POPS FOR THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD
OVER EAST TX BASED ON THE TIMING CONSENSUS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...BASED ON PROGGED WINDS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...EXTENDED THE SCEC HEADLINE TO INCLUDE THE 0-20NM ZONES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR DURING THE EARLY AM
HOURS WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE CLOUD
DECK FROM REACHING THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT...PATCHY
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. INSERTED VCTS AT
SITES BASED ON BEST GUESS TIMING BUT EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION
WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER REFINED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINAS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING SLOWLY
NWD OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE WEAK RIDGING LINGERS
CLOSER TO HOME. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS FOUND...OTHERWISE WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL PER LATEST SFC OBS.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION BEING OF A
DIURNAL NATURE...EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE FUN STARTS LATER TONIGHT AS THE WRN CONUS LOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DROPS THROUGH IT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. COMBO OF INCREASING LIFT
ALOFT...EXCELLENT MOISTURE (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCH PWATS) AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO
AT MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW HRRR RUNS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR
TIMEFRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT ARE PROGGED. PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATER
TONIGHT/TOMORROW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AS WELL AS
STEEP LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD INSTABILITY
IN PLACE BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
INSOLATION AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL BE SO NO
SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR NOW.

RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. COMBO WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY. ENTIRE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR WEDNESDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY/CAPE/LAPSE RATES ALL
IMPROVING. BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 83 69 86 / 20 70 40 20
LCH 73 81 72 84 / 20 60 30 20
LFT 73 84 74 85 / 10 50 40 30
BPT 73 83 72 85 / 40 60 20 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

642 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP CIGS TO IFR DURING THE EARLY AM
HOURS WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE CLOUD
DECK FROM REACHING THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT...PATCHY
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 70 83 69 86 / 10 70 40 20
LCH 73 81 72 84 / 20 60 30 20
LFT 73 84 74 85 / 10 50 40 30
BPT 73 83 72 85 / 30 60 20 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.

AVIATION...66

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED...BUT
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NRN WI. WITH WEAK SRN STREAM RIDGING
OVER THE SE CONUS AND A TROF CONTINUING TO PERSIST IN SE CANADA...
THE SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR EASTWARD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW
BTWN THE RIDGE AND TROF. RAIN THAT LIFTED THRU THE FCST AREA LAST
NIGHT WAS REPLACED BY SCT SHOWERY PCPN DURING THE MORNING UNDER A
PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS AFTN...APPROACHING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO MORE ORGANIZED BANDS
OF SHRA AND EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. SOO
WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SNOW OCCURRING TODAY WITH EVEN A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. FARTHER W...KERY OB HAS INDICATED SNOW AS PTYPE AT
TIMES WITH SFC TEMP OF 33 TO 34 DEGREES. PROBABLY CAN`T RULE IT
OUT...BUT MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS UNANIMOUSLY DON`T SUPPORT SNOW AT
KERY. UNDER CLOUDS AND PCPN...IT`S BEEN ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS E
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH WEAKENING DYNAMIC SUPPORT...PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. GIVEN ONGOING THUNDER
JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...WILL CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER
ROUGHLY THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK
MORE TO THE NE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT THAT THE PCPN WILL
AT LEAST MIX WITH SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER AS LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FALLS AOB 0C. MIGHT SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. IF CHANGEOVER IS A LITTLE QUICKER...THERE
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.

SOME PATCHY -SN MAY LINGER OVER THE NCNTRL EARLY TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...RATHER SHARP CLEARING LINE NOTED THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO...JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IS SIGN OF WHAT`S TO COME ON
TUE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SHOW
DRAMATIC DRYING OF THE COLUMN FROM N TO S TUE MORNING...WHICH LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
SHOW SHEARED OUT VORTICITY PASSING ALONG OR JUST S OF THE MI/WI
BORDER...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE S THRU
THE DAY. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE...GRADIENT NE WIND AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C AT MIDDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 40F.
WELL INLAND...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A SHALLOW E FLOW OF CHILLY...MOIST AIR TO
THE N OF A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS WI TO LWR MI
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
TONIGHT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A TIME AT
KCMX/KSAW BEFORE ENDING. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING...
RESULTING IN QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING ACROSS WI TO SOUTHERN LWR MI...STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN LAKE WHERE
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE WINDS...GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
INTO SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL
PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 20KT THU-SAT ACROSS
THE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN NRN BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND A
SRN BRANCH SHRTWV OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV
MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTER
AIR...WITH 00Z PWATS AS HI AS 1.16 INCH AT MPX /ALMOST 250 PCT OF
NORMAL/ AND 0.92 INCH AT GRB /190 PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS PUSHED
FARTHER N AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND SFC/H85 LO OVER ERN SDAKOTA...
DRIER AIR ON THE SRN FLANK OF BONE DRY AIRMASS IN ONTARIO /WHERE 00Z
PWAT AT YPL WAS ONLY 0.12 INCH/ MAINTAINED BY PROXIMITY OF THE
CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE BRANCHES SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RA
THAT HAS BEEN FCST RECENTLY. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BAND OF RA N OF A NEARLY STNRY H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM CENTRAL MN
ACRS NCENTRAL WI IS PUSHING NE THRU UPR MI. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT
H3 JET MAX OVER SW QUEBEC AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN N OF THE ARPCHG
WARM FNT APPEAR TO BE SGNFT FORCING MECHANISMS. BUT THIS BAND IS
RATHER NARROW...WITH DRY SLOTTING IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG SHRTWV
CAUSING A SHARP SRN EDGE TO THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RA THAT IS ALREADY
PUSHING N ACRS THE WI BORDER.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT FOCUS ON POPS/QPF TODAY AHEAD OF SLOWLY
APRCHG SHRTWV AND THEN DRYING TRENDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN TNGT AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
SHEARING SHRTWV THRU WI.

TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BAND OF HEAVIER RA
CONTINUING NE THRU THE CWA BUT TENDING TO DIMINISH AS THE FGEN
FORCING WEAKENS AS THIS BAND MOVES FARTHER N INTO LINGERING DRY AIR
MAINTAINED BY NW FLOW ALF OVER ONTARIO AND AWAY FM NEARLY STNRY FNT
LINGERING IN WI. THEN SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL BEFORE DPVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVE W-E AND CAUSE THE PCPN AREA TO EXPAND AGAIN/
INTENSIFY IN THE AFTN. WITH CLD COVER/RA...WL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST
WELL BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40.

TNGT...SHRTWV SLIDING ENEWD IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE MORE
QUICKLY TO THE E ACRS WI AS IT ENTERS THE UPR CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE
NRN AND SRN BRANCHES. WITH DIMINISHING DYNAMIC SUPPORT/MID LVL
DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY TO GRDLY DIMINISH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AS THE
LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE NE...GUIDANCE HINTS THE PCPN WL AT LEAST
MIX WITH SOME SN BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER AS H85
TEMPS FALL AOB 0C. THE NAM INDICATES SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SN COULD
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL WITH LINGERING SLGTLY
CYC NE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING COOLING/LIFT. THIS MODEL IS SLOWER THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN SHEARING OUT THE SHRTWV/BRINGING IN
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/HOLDING ON TO LLVL CYC FLOW. BUT SINCE
SOME OF THE OTHER HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PERSISTENT HIER QPF
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WL MAINTAIN SOME HIER POPS
IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH A HIER QPF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING E ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF UPPER MI...STRONG E TO NE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT. OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE
WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS
THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20KT THU/FRI ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE
AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

143 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CONUS.
UPPER LAKES WILL RESIDE WITHIN CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT ON EDGE OF
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH. RESULT IS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS WEEK WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS IN SIGHT ATTM. IN FACT
IF ANYTHING THE 7-10 DAY PERIOD JUST BEYOND REACH OF THIS FORECAST
POINTS TO MORE COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN AS TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN CONUS EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE GREAT LAKES. EXTRAPOLATING
CPC DAY 8-14 OUTLOOK MADE ON APRIL 24TH SUGGESTS THAT WARMER AIR MAY
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER GREAT LAKES TOWARD MID MAY AND CPC 3-4
WEEK OUTLOOK GOOD THROUGH MID-LATE MAY SIGNALS A SWITCH TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. TIME WILL TELL IF THAT DOES INDEED OCCUR.

LINGERING EFFECTS FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE FEW BUT
COULD SHOW UP AS A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL CWA. AT THE LEAST...INCREASED SKY COVER
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS STEADILY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SMATTERING OF
MID OR HIGH CLOUDS MAY TRY TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
SHOULD TURN INTO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR ALL CWA.

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES REST OF THIS WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG/GUSTY. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF
THE HIGH WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE COOLEST WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE WEEK. PERHAPS MAY SEE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
BUT THAT WOULD ONLY COME FROM AIRMASS MODERATION AS THE OVERALL
TEMPS ALOFT WARM LITTLE. THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WITH THE HIGH
POINTS TO GOING ON LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS
ESPECIALLY INLAND.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN
NEXT SUNDAY. PREVIOUS ECMWF DROVE THOSE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS...BUT
LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH SFC-MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING
ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH TREND WITH PRECIP
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG/PERSISTENT/DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE RUNNING INTO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

745 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH PERIODS OF RA AND A SHALLOW E FLOW OF CHILLY...MOIST AIR TO THE
N OF A STNRY FNT IN WI...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE
TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR LATE TNGT AT
CMX WL BRING A RETURN OF COME CLRG AND VFR WX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

427 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

351 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT WNW FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A NRN STREAM TROF OVER SE CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY. COLD AIR
THAT HAS EXPANDED UNDER THE SE CANADA TROF AND WARM AIR PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW HAS
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PER 12Z RAOBS...850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM -16C AT MOOSONEE TO -10C AT PICKLE LAKE TO 14C AT THE
TWIN CITIES. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 120+KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC IS AIDING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PCPN TODAY HAS BEEN
DISPLACED FARTHER SW THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE MDT/HEAVY PCPN WHICH HAS STAYED SW AND S OF
THE WI/MI BORDER. ALL DAY...RADAR IMAGERY LOOP HAS SHOWED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT BEING FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN MN TO ECNTRL WI. AS A RESULT...MEANINGFUL 850/700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS NOT ABLE TO EXTEND NE INTO UPPER MI. THUS...PCPN
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...INFLUENCE OF THE SE CANADA TROF IS FCST TO RELAX
SOME...ALLOWING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS TO SHIFT E TO ERN
SD/SW MN. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN TO SHIFT NE INTO UPPER MI. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET ALSO BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TO LIFT NE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE IN BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE
LIFTING PCPN N...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HEAVIER PCPN
STRUGGLES TO SPREAD NE INTO THE FCST AREA.

ON MON...REMNANT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER ERN SD/SW MN
MON MORNING WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD INTO THE
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LINGERING FGEN WILL KEEP PERIODS
OF RAIN GOING THRU THE DAY. MAY SEE A BREAK OR A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
S...BEFORE DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES.

SINCE RAINFALL TODAY WAS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT/MON. WILL PROBABLY STILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL...BUT AMOUNTS TONIGHT/MON ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
POSE ANY WATER ISSUES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH CLOUDS/FREQUENT
RAIN ON MON...FAVORED THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

127 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH CLOUDS/FREQUENT
RAIN ON MON...FAVORED THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY RAIN...BUT
COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N MAY TURN SOME PRECIP TO SNOW OVER NRN
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...PRECIP IS DIMINISHING AND MOVING OUT WHILE THE
COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN...SO ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

TUE THROUGH NEXT SUN LOOKS COOL AND DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. 850MB TEMPS HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 0C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S) AND WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING E ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF UPPER MI...STRONG E TO NE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE
WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 45KT...WILL OCCUR MON AFTN. ACROSS THE REST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM W TO E
TONIGHT...REACHING 20-30KT BY SUNRISE MON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED. GIVEN THE E TO NE WIND
DIRECTION...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THU/FRI WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1208 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT MID
AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERED FROM THE LOW
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN TO THE SOUTHERN METRO TO SOUTH OF EAU
CLAIRE WHILE A COLD FRONT CURVED SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. SOME SUNSHINE DID OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA.
THIS AREA HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN NE. VARIOUS CAMS INDICATE FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORMS IN EASTERN NE WHILE MOVING INTO NW IA
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN COUNTIES. HENCE...A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CURRENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH ADJOINS OUR SOUTHWEST MN CWA.
CAPE BEGINS TO FADE QUICKLY AFTER 02Z ON THE HRRR WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED. THE STORMS COULD BE GETTING
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST METRO AT THAT TIME BUT IN A WEAKENING MODE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. PW
VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING WITH VALUES ELSEWHERE IN THE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. THIS
IS AT THE TOP OF OUR PW CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFORE A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF GRIDS ARE
WIDESPREAD HALF TO ONE INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE THERMAL
CONTRAST ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH THE EAST- WEST BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL MN TO NEAR 60 AT ALBERT LEA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A WET AND
SOMEWHAT COOL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE FIRST OF THREE ROBUST UPPER LOWS WILL PASS ACROSS MN AND INTO
WISCONSIN TOMORROW. AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...THUNDER
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT IS ADVANCING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS MN BUT START
TO SHEAR OUT AS IT REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY REDWOOD FALLS...TO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MANKATO AND THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITES METRO...TO
AROUND LA CROSSE. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BISECT THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN YIELD A PRONOUNCED NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 200-800J/KG OF MUCAPE AND ENOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT WEAKLY ORGANIZED OR MULTICELL CONVECTION. A
STRONG CELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
WI...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND THE ADDED
VORTICITY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW. IT SORT OF HAS THE LOOK OF A
LOW- TOPPED NON-SUPERCELL LANDSPOUT DAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER DEEP LOW EJECTING OUT OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLER FARTHER SOUTH
AND WRAP MUCH MORE MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN STATES TO OUR SOUTH.
LOCALLY...WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE
LOW SWINGS EAST/NORTHEAST AND MID-LEVEL FGEN TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
AREA. A THIRD TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUES OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SITES TO THE NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY ARE SOCKED IN WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND IT WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY ALL NIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY.
THIS INCLUDES AXN...STC...AND POSSIBLY RNH. MSP IS SITTING ON THE
EDGE OF VFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH...AND MVFR/IFR JUST TO THE NORTH.
WENT WITH VFR THROUGH 09Z WITH A TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS...THEN
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO SAG SOUTH AND TAKE OVER. RWF IS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT VFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
LIKELY INITIALLY...BUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON LOOK FOR A TRANSITION
TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LACK OF THUNDER.

KMSP...WEAKENED STORMS APPROACHING NEXT HOUR TWO. THERE MAY NOT BE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL BY THE TIME THEY REACH MSP...BUT CONTINUED TO
MENTION VCTS. VFR COULD LAST LONGER THAN THE TAF INDICATES AS THE
EDGE OF THE LOW CIGS WILL MOVE LITTLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR PSBL. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

631 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 21Z FROM KAIA-
KLBF WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY ACROSS SWRN NEB.

THERE IS A MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABLIZATION ON THE NRN COLO
FRONT RANGE AND LARAMIE RANGE DEVELOPS AROUND 21Z WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE SRN/CNTL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SPC SUGGESTED A MARGINAL
HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
PRESUMABLY THE ATM REMAINS CAPPED ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGESTED ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT A STRONG CAP WHICH
WEAKENS AFTER 09Z.

HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NRN NEB. RETURN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT HOLD UP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH WHERE THE NAM AND ECM SHOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING. THE DEEPER EASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SRN NEB
MAY FAVOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN VS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLACE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

BEGINNING 12Z TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS INCREASING FOR TUESDAY. THIS THREAT IS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN GOING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IN
ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT...MEASURABLE RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE MODERATE OR HEAVY IS FORECAST.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION
WHERE UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EJECT A SERIES OF WAVES/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. SEVERAL OF THE
WAVES ACTUALLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND CLOSE
OFF A LOW WHICH THEN SLOWLY MEANDER THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW ARRIVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON
TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE A SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING TO THE EAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DPVA...WAA...INITIAL HIGH PLAINS SPEED MAX
AND GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ON THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
REGION. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE MODELS
DEPICT INCREASING CAPE AS THE LOW LIFTS THE FRONT NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE TRIAD OF
TYPICAL THREATS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST LIKELY GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80...AND EAST THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY INTO WHEELER
COUNTY...WITH A TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND EAST /SW
NEB/ AND EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW
FAVORABLE 0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER. THE CURRENT DAY TWO SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK NOW HAS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE ENHANCED
RISK WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST AT OUR SOUTHEASTER DOORSTEP. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK FURTHER WEST INTO THE LOW...OR IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR GENERALLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND MOST OF THE SOUTH...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE SUGGESTING A FAR LESSER CHANCE OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MADE LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS PROJECT SOME DRYING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...SO THE GREATEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. A
COOLER AIRMASS IS SEEN WITH THIS LOW...AND IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH ACROSS NW NEB FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST THOUGH.

THE LOW IS DRAWN EAST ON THURSDAY LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS...HOWEVER THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SW ORGANIZES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH TONIGHT/S
RUN THAN COMPARED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE RESULT IS THE SAME.
INCREASING POPS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLID RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SLOWS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE PREVIOUS COOL AIRMASS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO
REDEVELOP...SO WILL GO WITH AN ISO MENTION

THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL ADD
UP...ESPECIALLY IF AN AREA IS IMPACTED BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND COULD APPROACH A COUPLE
INCHES IN LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS NORTH HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING 1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE NRN COLO FRONT RANGE AND
LARAMIE RANGE AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MOVE INTO THE
SRN/CNTL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP FROM 06Z ONWARD TONIGHT. THE SLOWER GFS GENERATES NO
RAIN WHILE THE FASTER ECM AND NAM DO. THE RAP IS HINTING AT THE
SLOWER GFS SOLN.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT FED BY LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL
AT SOME POINT PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH LOWER CIGS WEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE COULD DEVELOP 06Z-09Z IN THE NAM/ECM
OR AS LATE AS 12Z-15Z IN THE SLOWER GFS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

950 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. STRONG WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPRING WINDS.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW CURRENT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CLARK...LINCOLN AND
WESTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN LINCOLN
COUNTY SINCE 9AM WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE WILL STILL REMAIN A
THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN CLARK AND
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEEN SUN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
WILL ALSO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF SAN
BERNARINO...ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE...AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
THESE STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON TO PUSH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL TAKE
A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. AT THIS TIME FEEL ITS BORDERLINE FOR THAT
TO OCCUR. NEED TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN
MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
250 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ITS BEEN AN ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TODAY AS A FAIRLY
POTENT TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS INYO COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR DEATH VALLEY WERE
FAIRLY POTENT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THEY WERE SPARKED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND AIDED BY
STRONG LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INCOMING JET. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WANED WITH NO NEW STRIKES DETECTED IN THE PAST
HOUR...HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 80KT JET AT 300MB....WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR BREAK OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
INYO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFT THEM EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. STRONG FORCING AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL. GIVEN
THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS PARTICULAR PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE LAS VEGAS
AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. BEWARE OF WET AND SLICK
ROADWAYS...THOUGH IM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS FOR MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP OVER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION...THE OTHER BIG CONCERN IS WIND.
HIGHEST IMPACT AREA FROM WIND WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT PARTICULARLY NEAR DAGGETT AND BICYCLE LAKE. IVE MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS IN FAVOR OF THE WIND SPEEDS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH RES MODELS. HOWEVER...MOS GUIDANCE
PARTICULARLY THE MAV HAS BEEN VERY BULLISH WITH HIGH WINDS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON FOR DAGGETT. SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IT...BUT I HAVE DISCOUNTED IT FOR NOW SINCE IT HAS RUN TOO HIGH IN
RECENT PAST EVENTS. ANTICIPATE PEAK GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE
FOR MOST AREAS IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT....THOUGH A COUPLE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED THAT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH YET ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND SPIN INTO
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AGAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO THE INLAND TRACK AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE. THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR
POINT SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS 30-40 PERCENT IN THE
VALLEYS/DESERTS AND 50-60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 7000 FEET THOUGH MAY DIP TO AROUND 6000 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FRIDAY THOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OVER EASTERN WA/OR AND IDAHO
SATURDAY THEN SLIDE DOWN THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS BUT WILL TREND TEMPS
AND WINDS TOWARD THIS SCENARIO.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 12-15Z. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS PROBABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS IN THE 4-6K RANGE AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
GENERALLY IN THE 9-12 KNOT RANGE...THOUGH OCCASIONAL STRONGER PULSES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PERIODIC GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THOSE PERIODS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RISING CLOSER TO 10K
WHILE CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL IN THE 12-18KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. EXPECT REDUCED CIGS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF
TURBULENCE. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG A BELT FROM THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER. SITES SUCH AS
KNXP AND KDAG CAN ANTICIPATE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 45KTS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND SUSPENDED DUST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$
UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

250 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

229 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEK. SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS SUMMITS AND OVERPASSES
TODAY AND ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ON ALL ROADWAYS TONIGHT BEFORE
THE STORM EXITS. THE NEXT STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DENOTES THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR BISHOP
CALIFORNIA AT THIS HOUR WITH MOST LIGHTNING OCCURRING SOUTH OF
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE LEFT FRONT OF THE JET CORE AROUND
BEATTY NEVADA. THERE IS SOME BLOSSOMING CLOUD TOPS NORTHEAST OF
BEATTY AND OVER AUSTIN TO THE NORTH. MESOWEST DATA SHOWS THE
COLD AIR HAS LOWERED TO ABOUT 5500 FEET IN THE NORTH AND ABOUT
6500 FEET ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. STILL PURE RAIN AT ELKO WITH
TEMPERATURE DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S. SNOW LEVEL HAS LOWERED BY
ABOUT 500 FEET THIS MORNING. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID
30S. WORKING TOWARDS A SECOND TENTH OF RAIN AT LKN SINCE 00Z.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHERE MOST OF THE
ACTION TAKES PLACE. THERE WILL BE SOME VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATION...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON THE ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY AT
TIMES...AND HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HAS SETTLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN MUCH AS THE MODELS
IMPLIED. MOISTURE HAS POOLED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. MODELS INDICATE
A SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER LAS VEGAS WITH ONE OF
TWO LOBES EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH ELKO. THIS CAN BE CONFIRMED BY
THE SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NORTH EAST OF ELKO AND TO THE SOUTH WEST
OF ELKO. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING THE COLD POOL FURTHER EAST. A PRIME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE SET-UP FOR WEST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS WILL LAST THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z THEN FOCUS ON THE RUBIES EAST SIDE AFTER 18Z. THE RUBIES
BENEFIT FROM A GOOD MOIST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME AS DOES NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500
FEET SHOULD SEE 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS SUCH AS SPRING CREEK IN
ELKO COUNTY MAY SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA NEAR THE
IDAHO BORDER WITH ELKO COUNTY COULD RECEIVE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW...AS
COULD THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. TOWARDS THE WEST...WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH COULD PRODUCE VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR TRAVELERS WHEN COMBINED
WITH SNOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER
EASTERN NEVADA IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH NEAR THE SIERRAS. THE
ECMWF MODEL STILL HAS THE LOW CENTER PLUNGING EAST OF THE
SIERRAS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO LOWS AND A MORE FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN NOW HAS
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA...A DRIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE
RAIN SHADOWING ASPECT OF THE SIERRAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ALL ACROSS THE CWFA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NV AS UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY AGAIN ON MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. AREAS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45KTS AT THE
KTPH TERMINAL AFTER 16Z WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFT 02Z.

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE BEEN FLOWING WITHOUT
MUCH INCIDENT THIS SPRING SEASON AND IT HAS BEEN NICE TO HAVE THE
WATER BACK. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED NEW SNOWFALL...PERIODS OF RAIN
ON SNOW...AND PROJECTED WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED BANK-FULL.
LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...AND SALMON FALLS CREEK ARE THREE NAMED
CREEKS TO WATCH IF SNOW-MELT ESCALATES HOWEVER THERE ARE NUMEROUS
SMALL CHANNELS ORIGINATING IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT MAY CAUSE
FLOODING ISSUES OR SOGGY ROADWAYS.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY.

92/91/91

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
912 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016/

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ005.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ070.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

OUR FOCUS THROUGH TUESDAY IS ON THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...AND IN
PARTS OF WESTERN ND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW.

AS OF 20 UTC...A MID-LEVEL LOW BASED NEAR 700 MB IS SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEAST ND PER SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RAP ANALSYES. RAIN MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AT MID AFTERNOON IS TIED
TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND BROAD MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION THAT STRETCHES BACK INTO NORTHEAST MT. MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 12 UTC SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WASH OUT BY 12
UTC TUESDAY...BUT THE LINGERING DEFORMATION-AIDED FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT. THE
12 UTC GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT...AS AS
THE MORE RECENT RAPID-REFRESH /RAP AND HRRR/ GUIDANCE. THE THERMAL
PROFILE MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12 UTC NAM WAS MORE ROBUST IN ITS
ADVERTISEMENT OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW /BASED ON THE NCEP DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM APPLIED TO ITS MASS FIELDS/ THAN MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WE UTILIZED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST YIELDED UP TO ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IN SOME
PARTS OF WESTERN ND BY TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ON THE LARGE SCALE...AFTERNOON MOISTURE CHANNEL /WATER
VAPOR/ IMAGES SHOW THE NEXT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REINFORCE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S F WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH YET ONE MORE CHANCE OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVE SYNC ADVERTISING A 500-MB
LOW MOVING ACROSS NEB ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ITS NORTH. THE CONSENSUS OF THAT
GUIDANCE TAKES A WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ND BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. TWO CHALLENGES
WITH THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE 1/ DETERMINING ITS PHASE IN
WESTERN AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE SOME WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND 2/ DECIDING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH. WHERE THE FIRST ISSUE
IS CONCERNED...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN CALLING FOR AN
AREA OF SUB-FREEZING 850-MB TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS LIKELY SUGGESTS WET BULB
COOLING WILL BE NECESSARY TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THAT IS SOMEWHAT OF A LOW-CONFIDENCE ITEM...AND MOST OF
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM OUTPUT BACKED OFF
ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THUS...WE HELD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. FINALLY...NOTE THAT THE PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO EMANATE IN THE MODELS OUT OF THE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THAT ERUPTS LATE TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT IS
A REASONABLE SOLUTION...BUT WHEN DEEP CONVECTION IS INVOLVED THERE
IS ALWAYS SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...MEAN WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHING WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF LIFTED THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE A BIT FURTHER NORTH
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND 12 UTC GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE STATE WILL
JUST BE GRAZED BY THAT WAVE OR NOT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F DURING THE LONG TERM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KDIK/KJMS THROUGH TODAY
IN RAIN...STRATUS AND FOG. SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KDIK/KBIS. KBIS HAS BEEN
SURROUNDED BY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY...THROUGH THE TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW VFR/MVFR RANGE
AT KISN/KMOT TODAY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...NH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORMAN OK

829 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF THIS EVENING WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LINE. STORMS HAVE ENDED IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LIKELY. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP DRYLINE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH A COLD
FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE STATE LINES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA RIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. WITH CAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. LATEST OUN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAP IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, LOW BASED FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG
CAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND/OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNDER THE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY CONCERN, SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER COULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOS
DEVELOPING WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SCENARIO, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
QUICK MOVING, SO HYDROLOGY ISSUES/FLOODING CHANCES WOULD BE LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RAMPING DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
WITH POPS DECREASING WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH
MORE MILDER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN
BRING POPS OF TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 77 50 79 / 100 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 77 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 81 53 84 / 60 0 0 10
GAGE OK 48 73 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 74 48 76 / 100 10 0 0
DURANT OK 62 82 56 84 / 100 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

644 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LIKELY. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 77 50 79 / 50 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 77 49 79 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 81 53 84 / 40 0 0 10
GAGE OK 48 73 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 74 48 76 / 80 10 0 0
DURANT OK 62 82 56 84 / 80 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS Tulsa OK

226 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A few of the latest short term model runs of the HRRR have
isolated thunderstorms developing near boundary across far north-
central Oklahoma this afternoon. It appears from latest mesoscale
analysis that cap will be strong enough to suppress any convective
development however this will continue to be monitored. Slight
chance that a few elevated thunderstorms could develop overnight
across far northeast oklahoma/northwest Arkansas in low level jet
axis, however coverage is expected to remain isolated.

Significant severe weather event expected across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas starting as early as late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Models have
trended a little faster with upper wave, including thunderstorm
initiation Tuesday afternoon. Dry line will set up near the I-35
corridor with SBCAPES in excess of 4000 J/KG developing across
a large portion of eastern Oklahoma as moisture rich gulf air
continues to surge north.

As upper level speed max shifts into the region by late afternoon,
thunderstorms will likely develop along dryline and push into
portions of northeast oklahoma by late afternoon and at the latest
early evening. Forecast point soundings during this time support the
potential for supercells with all modes of severe weather likely,
including the potential for a few strong tornadoes. The greatest
tornado threat will be late afternoon/early evening near peak
heating with any isolated supercells that initially develop/move
into northeast Oklahoma.

Severe thunderstorms will likely continue to increase in coverage
across eastern Oklahoma during the evening hours, spreading into
northwest Arkansas by late evening as wind fields continue to
increase. A tornado threat will likely continue with this activity
although may transition more to a damaging wind threat depending on
the overall thunderstorm coverage and other storm scale interactions.
Regardless, as mentioned earlier, a widespread significant severe
weather event is anticipated for much eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Primary severe threat will diminish late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning as main convective line shifts east of the
region.

There is still a limited potential for a few isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms along dry line Wednesday afternoon/evening
across far E OK/NW AR as steep mid level lapse rates develop in
association with upper low to the north. Primary limiting factor
will be that forcing will become weaker as low level wind fields
begin to veer Wednesday afternoon.

Brief break in the weather expected on Thursday before another
strong upper wave moves out of the desert southwest Friday/Saturday.
Showers/thunderstorms will likely develop along/north of warm front
near the Red River late Thursday night in Friday. Multiple rounds
of severe weather/heavy rainfall will be possible through Saturday
as warm front lifts north. In addition to the severe threat,
flooding will likely become an issue where the heavier rainfall
occurs. Lingering precipitation chances will continue into early
next week as low level moisture persists with a few weak upper
level impulses possible.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 83 63 82 / 10 40 80 10
FSM 67 84 65 83 / 20 20 80 40
MLC 69 81 64 82 / 10 20 80 20
BVO 65 83 60 81 / 20 40 80 10
FYV 62 82 60 79 / 20 20 80 30
BYV 64 83 62 79 / 20 30 80 50
MKO 67 81 64 81 / 10 20 80 20
MIO 66 83 64 81 / 20 20 80 20
F10 68 82 63 82 / 10 30 80 10
HHW 67 82 65 82 / 10 20 80 30

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

918 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST THERE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. ALSO...A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT WAS ISSUED FOR THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN CURRY...JOSEPHINE
AND JACKSON COUNTIES. THERE WERE LIKELY A FEW PATCHES OF FROST
IN OUT-LYING WEST SIDE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY INTO TONIGHT THOUGH LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A FRONT IS
LIKELY TO BRING MAINLY WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING WARMING AND DRYING THURSDAY THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL
BRUSH PAST TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN IFR CIGS/VIS AT
ROSEBURG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE MORNING,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE, BUT MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY OBSCURED THIS MORNING. ALSO CIGS
COULD SEE-SAW BRIEFLY FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KLAMATH FALLS THIS
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF. STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO
RETURN AT ROSEBURG. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MON 25 APR 2016...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW END SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS WITH A WEST DOMINATED SWELL
AFFECTING ALL THE THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THE RAP SHOWS SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS EDGING CLOSER TOWARDS
THE COAST, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS TO REFLECT
THIS THIS THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS COULD REACH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT BY THURSDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MARINE ZONES 356 AND 376. NOTE THAT DETAILS ON THIS
COULD CHANCE, SO WATCH FOR UPDATES ON THIS. -PETRUCELLI

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016/

THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNERS THIS MORNING FROM MOISTURE
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO STABILIZE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND FROST IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE TAKE NEEDED PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID FROST DAMAGE.

NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR MARINE
ZONES WHERE THE NEXT FRONT COULD SPREAD LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE
DAY. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM DIVES
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
OREGON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY BUT
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. /FB

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW/MP/CC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

452 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNERS THIS MORNING
FROM MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY BUT
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. /FB

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN IFR CIGS/VIS THAT
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT ROSEBURG. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION, BUT MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AT LEAST PARTLY OBSCURED THIS MORNING. ALSO CIGS COULD SEE SAW
BRIEFLY FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KLAMATH FALLS THIS MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS TO RETURN AT ROSEBURG.
-PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

315 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY BUT
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. /FB

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND THEY HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM ALL TAFS. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT SO
WE WILL SEE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH VFR THEREAFTER. IF WE GET ENOUGH CLEARING WE COULD SEE
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. -WRIGHT

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

FJB/FJB/TRW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

926 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER KY AND NORTHWEST TN WAS EDGING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...EXTENDING EAST TO
JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN AT 9 PM. 00Z NAM LAYER DUCT FUNCTION
SUGGESTS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO...ALBEIT AT A LIKELY
SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I40 APPEARED TO BE
DECREASING SINCE 8 PM. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SLOWLY DECREASES AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. HEIGHT FALLS
THIS RIDGING AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD ERODE AFTER 5 AM OR
SO.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS AR OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY THEN INTENSIFY MIDMORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH SURFACE HEATING AND CONCURRENT STEEP
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.

PWB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOST FAVORABLE
FOR MAINTENANCE OF THIS MCS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY OVERLAPS THE WEAKEST
CAPPING. LOW LEVEL (0-3KM) CAPE VALUES ARE NEARING 100 J/KG...WITH
SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED AROUND 30 KTS THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...850-700MB
CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS STRONGER. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT AS CAPPING OVERWHELMS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING.

ATTENTION WILL TURN WESTWARD BY LATER TONIGHT AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON MOVE EAST AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY ADVANCE INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT MAY
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT IMPACTS
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN
1000 J/KG...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A
LOW LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD UNDERGO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES IN ADDITION TO A FEW MEMBERS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO THE WEST OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH
SBCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7.0 C/KM...AND LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY...THEN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH WOULD BE SEVERE. THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
SECONDARY WAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
RECOVER AND THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL WITH 40 KTS MAINTAINED AROUND 5KFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY ALSO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY BACKED
NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 200
M2/S2. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LEVELS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW VERY LARGE HAIL REPORTS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THESE THREATS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THEY SAG ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
WEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN AGAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SSW
AT 10 KTS OR LESS. FEEL THAT VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A VCSH INCLUDED FOR KMKL. THE MCS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION HAS WANED AND BECOME MORE BROKEN AS WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS PROVED DETRIMENTAL TO THE STRENGTH AND
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD POOL. THEREFORE REMOVED THUNDER FROM KMEM
OVERNIGHT. LOWERING CIGS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL
FOSTER MVFR CONDS AS LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM WEST.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WRT TIMING OF TSRA
ACTIVITY. CONDS COULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ZDM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

824 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

WIND GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT CLARKSVILLE AT 749 PM CDT WITH A WIND GUST
TO 33 MPH AT HOPKINSVILLE AROUND THE SAME TIME. CONVECTIVE LINE
EXTENDS FORM BOWLING GREEN DOWN THROUGH CLARKSVILLE INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OUTFLOW HAS GOTTEN OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE BY ABOUT
10 TO 15 MILES.

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE GREAT PLAINS HAS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OUT EAST OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE HELPED
GENERATE A STRONG MCS ACROSS MO AND SOUTHERN IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THAT CONVECTION LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF HAVE DECENT
QPF OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING...SO UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR THE EVENING FOR SOME QUICK MOVING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK A BIT ON PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...SO BACKED OFF A BIT DURING THAT
TIME. KEPT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY BASICALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIP TIMING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH SOME
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST OF I65 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH HIGHER PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS CATCH UP BY 03Z. FOR THE MOST
PART...I65 AND WEST WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP BEFORE 03Z...AND EAST
WILL SEE HIGHER PRECIP AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW...THE SPC HAS THE SLIGHT
RISK MAINLY ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH A MARGINAL
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE DIURNAL SUPPORT LACKING AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...MUCAPE
VALUES ARE DECENT AT AROUND 1500-1700 J/KG ON AVERAGE. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AT AROUND 40 KNOTS.
LONG STORY SHORT THE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WITH SOME EARLY STRONGER CELLS. IF STORMS GET TO THE AREA
EARLIER...POTENTIAL WILL BE A BIT BETTER AS THE INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 00Z...AND COMBINED WITH THE BETTER LAPSE
RATES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY SHOULD STORMS
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE PLATEAU REGION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY DRY ACROSS THE MID STATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE
PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SPIN FOR A BIT OVER THE PLAINS AND EJECT
SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO CALL. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IT LOOKS TO
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID STATE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INTO
OHIO. COMPLEX TO OUR NORTH WITH STORMS CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO
FRONTAL ZONE AND HAVE BEEN WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND ARE NOW ENTERING FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME WITH
SOUTHERN END OF CONVECTION JUST TOUCHING KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE TAIL END OF COMPLEX TO WORK DOWN INTO MY CWA
WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAINLY
NORTH HALF DURING THE EVENING. CANT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO AS COMPLEX WORKS EASTWARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 65 84 64 84 58 / 50 50 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 64 80 62 81 57 / 70 60 60 10 10
CROSSVILLE 62 79 63 78 58 / 40 50 70 40 10
COLUMBIA 64 83 63 82 57 / 40 50 60 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 63 83 63 82 58 / 40 50 60 30 10
WAVERLY 63 81 62 82 57 / 70 60 60 10 0

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

650 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

913 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT CRP/LCH AND SHV. PW
VALUES ARE UP TO 1.59 AT CRP AND 1.20 AT LCH AND SHV. CAPE VALUES
ARE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING
INVERSION LOOK STEEP. AT 850 MB...A STRONG LLJ WAS ORIENTED FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH DEEP 850 MB MSTR
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TX/OK. AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED N-S ACROSS WEST TEXAS. 700 MB TEMPS WERE 12C AT CRP AND
A FAIRLY WARM 700MB LAYER IS IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-10. AT 300
MB...WINDS WERE STRONGLY DIVERGENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE BUT WINDS ALOFT LOOK SOME WHAT ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

THE RAP...TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR ALL WANT TO BREAK THE CAP
OVERNIGHT AND BRING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
08-14Z WHILE THE GFS AND NAM12 MAINTAIN THE CAP AND WEAKEN THE
PRECIP PRIOR TO REACHING THE HOUSTON AREA. MODELS ARE SENDING
MIXED SIGNALS BUT THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD
CLIP (35-40 KTS) AND THE RAP/HRRR/WRF ALL INITIALIZED WELL SO WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HAVE RAISED
POPS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND BROUGHT SEVERE WORDING
JUST A TAD FURTHER SOUTH (INTO HOUSTON). THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE AT KCLL AROUND 4 AM...HOUSTON AROUND 6 AM AND GALVESTON
AROUND 8 AM. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE CAP
STRENGTH AND IF THE CAP HOLDS...THE AREA WILL PROBABLY JUST GET A
FEW SHOWERS. A SPECIAL SOUNDING WILL BE LAUNCHED AT COLLEGE
STATION LATER TONIGHT AND HOPEFULLY WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLUES ON
CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY.

MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE MARINE AREAS. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR GLS BAY AND THE GULF WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT AND GENERALLY THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
NOCTURNAL MCS. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF INCREASING WINDS AT KGLS.
THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 14Z WED MORNING. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
BIT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS UP OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST WILL LOSE THE GUST
CHARACTERISTIC BY AROUND 03Z. FAIRLY LARGE CAPPING INVERSION
OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP IN THE FORMATION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR
CONDITIONS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE TX
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY
LINE WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM KCLL AND
KUTS SOUTH TO ABOUT KIAH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AT KLBX
AND KGLS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST HOUSTON BEFORE RETURNING BACK
INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTING THIS
TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THIS LINE IS FCST TO MOVE E/SE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...LIKELY REACHING THE NW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES INTO SE TX...THERE IS STILL CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH.
HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CELLS WILL
BE MOVING SO EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL AVG FROM 1/2 TO 2
INCHES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST BY WEDS AFTN WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER E/NE. A BIT OF A BREAK THEN UNTIL FRI WITH
THE UPPER FLOW GOING ZONAL BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE
SOME ISO POPS FOR THUR AFTN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/CENTRAL ZONES
IN DEFERENCE TO THE SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE RAIN CHCS RETURN TO THE
FCST FRI (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW DIGGING AOA THE
FOUR CORNERS). STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM PROGGED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT. FCSTS OF HIGH PWS (1.8"-2") AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER RUNS KEEP RUNNING WITH THIS. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK...PRIMARILY OVER NIGHT AT STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS WHERE CAUTION
AND/OR ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS AND THE
FETCH LENGTHENS IN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. CORRESPONDING WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL SEE A FURTHER UPWARD BUMP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 67 87 70 / 70 30 10 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 85 71 87 73 / 60 50 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 74 83 73 / 20 50 20 10 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1241 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL RETURN AROUND 17Z AT DRT AND RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO...SO ONLY
INCLUDE IN AUS AND SAT TAFS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT AUS AND SAT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
TO THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES AS TIMING AND EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN ON SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
AND CREATING WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 925-700MB WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. AS FURTHER
HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH PWATS NEAR 1.4". LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER MAY NOT ALLOW FOR SHOWER OR STORM
GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE MAY JUST BE SLIGHTLY TOO STRONG FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON PARCEL BUOYANCY ALONE. THE NEW SPC SSEO
DOES SUGGEST SOME ACTIVITY COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE 7-10PM RANGE
WHILE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF DO NOT AGREE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
HINTS OF VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP...IT COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. WILL HAVE MENTION SUPER LOW END CHANCES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR WEAKER CAPPING AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH
LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.

H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BIG
BEND OF TEXAS THAT MAY HELP SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH WHERE THE BULK OF SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH - CAPPING WILL INITIALLY KEEP
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AT BAY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE INVERSION WEAKENING BY 4-6PM AND
INCREASED COVERAGE COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY TO POSSIBLY THE I35 CORRIDOR. CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8 C/KM AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LOW-
LVL SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTOR ORIENTATION SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS THAT COULD
ACT TO SUPPORT THE LOW-END TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM A SECONDARY IMPULSE COULD HELP ORGANIZE THE
STORMS INTO A LINE AND SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LINE SHOULD DECREASE BUT SOME
CONTINUED STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THIS ACTIVITY A SHOULD HELP FORCE
THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST LATE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

THE DRYLINE/BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALONG TO JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK WEST TO
THE RIO GRANDE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE BIG BEND WITH
ANOTHER NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE SW CONUS. AN
IMPLIED IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS/GEM
AND THIS COULD HELP GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF THESE CAN BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE PARENT CUT-OFF LOW MOVING
OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A STRONG DIFFLUENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.9" ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AS DECENTLY AGREED UPON MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG SYNOPTIC VERTICAL MOTION IN PLACE. THIS SET-UP
COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH STRONG TO SEVERE HAZARDS. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO
WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 86 66 87 65 / 10 30 60 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 86 66 86 63 / 10 30 60 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 87 66 87 64 / 10 30 50 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 61 85 62 / 10 30 70 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 93 62 90 63 / - 10 20 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 64 86 63 / 10 30 70 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 88 64 89 63 / 10 20 40 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 86 66 86 64 / 10 30 50 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 86 69 86 68 / 10 20 50 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 86 67 87 65 / 10 30 50 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 68 88 65 / 10 20 40 10 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

655 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
15Z/16Z TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE AND
LIFT FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING
KAUS. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 SITES LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURNS. A POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS.
LARGE HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST LATE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 71 86 66 87 / 10 10 30 60 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 70 86 66 86 / 10 10 30 60 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 87 66 87 / 10 10 30 50 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 85 61 85 / 10 10 30 70 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 93 62 90 / - - 10 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 85 64 86 / 10 10 30 70 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 70 88 64 89 / 10 10 20 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 70 86 66 86 / 10 10 30 50 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 71 86 69 86 / 10 10 20 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 71 86 67 87 / 10 10 30 50 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 89 68 88 / 10 10 20 40 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

406 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN ON SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
AND CREATING WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 925-700MB WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. AS FURTHER
HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH PWATS NEAR 1.4". LACK OF DEEPER MOISUTRE AND A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER MAY NOT ALLOW FOR SHOWER OR STORM
GENERATION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE MAY JUST BE SLIGHTLY TOO STRONG FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON PARCEL BUOYANCY ALONE. THE NEW SPC
SSEO DOES SUGGEST SOME ACTIVITY COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE 7-10PM
RANGE WHILE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF DO NOT AGREE. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW HINTS OF VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP...IT COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. WILL HAVE MENTION SUPER LOW END CHANCES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR WEAKER CAPPING AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED WITH
LOW CLOUDS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST LATE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

517 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS HIT THE LAKE BREEZE... WE ARE SEEING A BRIEF
UPTICK IN STORM STRENGTH/GROWTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE STORMS GETTING A
LITTLE EXTRA LIFT. THEY TEND TO DROP LARGER THAN PEA SIZE HAIL JUST
EAST OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PULSE-LIKE AND TYPICAL OF SINGLE CELL STORMS.
WE ARE SEEING VERY FEW STORMS THAT SHOW PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
ROTATION. MANY OF THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WHERE CAPE IS ONLY
AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS 40 TO 50 KNOTS.

THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA... ESPECIALLY WITH HAIL. THE INSTABILITY WILL HANG AROUND
SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL ONE MORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... PROBABLY CLEARING
SOUTHEAST WI BY 10 PM. WE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR DANE... COLUMBIA AND
GREEN COUNTIES SINCE THERE IS MORE DRY AIR IN THAT AREA. MESO MODELS
KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN EASTERN WI.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEY ARE
FOCUSING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT DEFINED BY A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE
FROM SOUTH TO SW WITHIN THE LEADING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHEST CAPE
AND LOWER CAPE. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL.
WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH HAIL SO FAR.

THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN WHERE
THE WARM FRONT IS MEETING UP WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFT IS MEETING UP WITH
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUOUSLY
DEVELOPING. THERE IS HIGH 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT IN THIS AREA
ALTHOUGH LOWER CAPE. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING. CAPE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND IF IT DEVELOPS AND THERE IS A LARGER HAIL
THREAT. THESE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE WHICH INCREASES THE 0-1KM SHEAR.

PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOW BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI BY 7 PM OR 8 AT THE
LATEST.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
THERE IS 2000 TO 3000 FEET THICK LAYER OF SATURATION WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH MID TUE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE NEXT CIRCULATION TO BEGIN IMPINGING ON
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD SUNRISE ON WED. MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A CHANCE SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AFTER 4 AM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A DECENT BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEP AND
PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM IS DISPLACED QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN IL LATE WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THE DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ERODE THE ADVANCING RAIN TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE WITH THE RAIN...KEEPING IT
OUT OF OUR NE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/EC/GEM DO TAKE IT
THROUGH SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT DIMINISHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE RAIN END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLIER.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUT
THE COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DOMINATES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SIMILAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE COOL EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR FOR TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND A LOW STRATUS DECK...BELOW 1000
FT...INTO SRN WI. LOW CONFIDENCE... BUT THERE COULD BE DRIZZLE WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME ASSOCIATED MVFR FOG.

MARINE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY. LOOK FOR THOSE WINDS TO TURN STRONG AND GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUE AFTN. WAVES WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUE AM. THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE WHILE FALLING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE TUE EVE NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
644.

UPDATE...MRC
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

337 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOW BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI BY 7 PM OR 8 AT THE
LATEST.

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUT
THE COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DOMINATES.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SIMILAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE COOL EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

.MARINE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ645-646.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
644.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

145 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA AT APF HAVE
MOVED OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING SO HAVE GONE SCT080
IN THE NEAR TERM. ALL ATLANTIC SITES WILL HAVE ESELY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE APF WINDS WILL BE ESELY THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE SW BY AROUND 18Z AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE KICKS IN. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...APF WILL
BE SUBJECT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR RA OR VCSH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SEA BREEZE BUT WILL LEAVE IT UP TO FUTURE UPDATES TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF. ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...ISO SHRA OFFSHORE
THE ATLANTIC WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MAKE IT ONSHORE. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE SHRA HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF RA OR
VCSH IN ANY OF THE ATLANTIC TAF SITES FOR NOW. /HOETH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
THE GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY THERE
ARE SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE
SHOWERS MOST, IF NOT ALL NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OVERDONE,
BUT THEY MAY LAST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS IN COLLIER COUNTY TO REFLECT THIS, BUT ONLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER AROUND 01Z THROUGH 06Z.
ALSO, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN, WHERE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY SHORT DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 85 73 / 10 0 10 10
MIAMI 85 74 87 73 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 85 71 87 70 / 20 20 20 0

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...99/BH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The cold front that pushed across the area yesterday was located
over central Missouri east through extreme southern Illinois
early this morning. To the north of the front, temperatures
have dropped into the mid and upper 40s with a chilly northeast
wind, while over southern Illinois, temperatures were still in
the low to mid 60s. Main question for today will be just how
far north the warm front will be able to move as a wave of
low pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and
evening, which will dictate how far north the severe threat
will be in our area. 06z NAM-WRF continues to show the more
favorable MUCAPE instability axis will be roughly along and
especially south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and
evening with the HRRR model suggesting the warm frontal
boundary may edge into southeast Illinois late today.

The first wave of showers and isolated storms is expected to
develop along and just north of the boundary over southern
Illinois this morning and arc northwest through our southwest
counties. Just how far north and east the rain will be able
to push into the drier air mass to our north this morning is
a challenge as we have already delayed the onset from previous
forecasts and really not confident that is slow enough. However,
models have been more consistent with the timing north this morning
with the first wave of rain, with even a hint of a break before the
main band of showers and storms tracks northeast into our area this
afternoon and evening. If there is going to be a severe weather
threat, this afternoon and evening would be the primary time frame
and especially along and south of the I-72 corridor. 0-6km shear
values around 45 kts could help to produce some wind and hail threat
in this area from mid afternoon through the mid evening hours before
the main area of forcing shifts off to our north and east.

Quite a range in temperatures across the forecast area today with
areas to our north having a tough time getting to 60, while over
far southeast Illinois, afternoon temperatures should climb into
the middle 70s. Have trended a bit cooler than guidance north of
the frontal boundary due to the extensive cloud cover, expected
rainfall and a cool easterly flow today, while guidance looked
reasonable over our southeast counties which had a decent chance
of seeing the warm front edge just to their north this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another similar round of models overall. Deep low over the Plains
states this morning will not only drive the weather today, but into
the overnight and tomorrow as well. Showers and thunderstorms
continue through the overnight and begin clearing from SW to N/NE
tomorrow in the first half of the day as the upper low starts to
make its way through the region. Should the low slow any more than
is currently forecast...the chances for precip could be a little
low...but for now the track of the upper low is further to the
north, allowing the southern tier of the state to be mostly dry on
Thursday. Showers come to an end briefly with a break Thur night and
into Friday before the next wave ejects out of the SW across the
Midwest for the weekend later Friday night.

Rain chances return for Friday night through the weekend with a
similar setup happening again with another slow moving storm system
out of the SW. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate the
weekend, with some clearing of the precip on Monday with drier air
wrapping around the system. Ultimately, will be interesting to see
how the current slow moving low is handled. Models beginning to
show some wavering with the solutions as the low for the weekend no
longer looks like it clears the trof completely out of the SW.
Should that trof remain...shortwaves ejecting out over the Midwest
Mon-Tue could change up the forecast again. For now, the models
shear out that energy in the wake of the main low...leaving the
first part of the work week with little threat. Slight pops in for
now. Expect some variability in the forecasts to come. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are in line with some expected seasonal
variance with rain/clouds/sun mix.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A break in the showers and thunderstorms will continue through
10-12z for the most part, with SPI having the best chance of
seeing precip arrive before sunrise. HRRR and RAP keep a majority
of the area dry until after 12z, with a band of rain advancing
into central IL from the SW just after 12z. The RAP keeps precip
SW of PIA to SPI to DEC until afternoon, while the NAM12 pushes a
band of showers/storms across our terminals between 15z and 21z,
then develops a strong to severe complex of storms just west of
PIA to SPI around 00z/7pm and pushes that system across all of the
TAF sites between 01z-07z Wed night at the end of this TAF period.
Will trend toward NAM for this TAF update, but with the potential
for significant breaks in rain/storms during the day tomorrow. Will
introduce stronger storms for the evening period.

IFR clouds and MVFR VIS have already pushed southwest over BMI,
with MVFR clouds reaching PIA. HRRR projections show all TAF sites
will drop to at least MVFR with IFR likely lingering at BMI until
14-15z when MVFR conditions develop in turbulent mixing with
precip onset. Will keep MVFR conditions as prevailing for a
majority of the next 24 hours, with tempos for IFR or LIFR
tomorrow eve with strongest storms.

Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15-17 kts are expected to veer
more east to southeast by Wed afternoon and gust to 18-24 kts, as
a warm front lifts north into central IL.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

251 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
848 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
303 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE AREA.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
320 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND HAS
NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE HAVE GIVEN ME ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP MVFR STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ARND 15 KT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING TONIGHT...BUT ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING BUT MOST
MODELS FEATURE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN ROTATING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR RFD AND THEN MID EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
REMOVED THE VCSH AND PUSHED THE TIMING OF PRECIP BACK BY AN HOUR.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THERE IS A
CHANCE IFR CIGS MAY ALSO CREEP OVER THE TERMINALS. DID NOT HAVE A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS SO KEPT THEM AS A SCT LAYER FOR NOW.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS PSBL...BUT THINKING THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER CENTRAL IL
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER
QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR
SMALL CRAFT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE IL NSH WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
OVER THE LAKE MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE LAKE TUESDAY.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1258 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
848 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

RATZER

.SHORT TERM...
303 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE AREA.

KJB

.LONG TERM...
320 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

KJB

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

JEE

.MARINE...
207 PM CDT

KMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

453 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KY. MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERALL
AND RIGHT NOW THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS...HOWEVER
THE NMM/ARW SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS. JUST CAN
NOT JUSTIFY THE MORE ROBUST POP CAMS ARE PAINTING GIVEN THE CLOUD
TOP WARMING TREND BASED ON IR SAT.

NOW THE REST OF THE DAY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CAMS DO
REDEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD PROBABLY RESIDE
ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND EVEN LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...WOULD THINK ANY
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WOULD BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER FELT
LIKE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT IF WE REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. OVERALL KEPT
BETTER POPS IN THE SW TO MATCH THE SSEO THINKING UNTIL MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD ONCE AGAIN RIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 00Z...AND WOULD THINK OVERALL BETTER CHANCES WOULD
RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. GENERALLY THINK
CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED STORM WOULD BE THE
STORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

NOW FOR THURSDAY THERE LOOKS TO BE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY ON AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WE THEN LOOK TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FALLING HEIGHTS AND LIFTING FROM THE BOUNDARY. TIMING SEEMS TO BE
THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND HOW MUCH CAN WE GET TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
EARLY ON CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BEGIN TO PICK
UP WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE MODEL SOUNDING
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST DCAPES APPROACHING THE
1000 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLY MID
LEVEL DRYING WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE HAIL THREAT WOULD ALSO BE THERE WITH DECENT BUOYANCY IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING...BUT OVERALL THE STRONGER SIGNALS SEEM
TO POINT TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ALSO THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME
SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO THE CIPS ANALOG FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER
RIGHT NOW GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY AKA MARGINAL SPC
RISK...AND WITH RESPECT TO MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS MODEST
SIGNAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD OFF ON STRONGER MENTION IN
THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL ANTICIPATED VERY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A SERIES SHORT WAVES
EJECTING EASTWARD AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
AND OH VALLEYS FRI INTO SUN. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TO END THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD INTERACT OR
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SHOULD SHARPEN UP A TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND THE GREAT LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY PASSING NORTH
SHOULD BE WORKING INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO CONVECTION EXITING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF AND
GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WE CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE THE MODEL BLEND. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE DEFINED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPEST. A GOOD SOAKING RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND
IS ANTICIPATED AND AMOUNTS NEARING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS TRAIN.

TROUGHING WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST LOW CHANCE
POPS. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS HOWEVER INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REPRIEVE FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND LINGERING AFTER THE PERIOD. WE
HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MODEL BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY UNTIL
OR IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT A DRY PERIOD OR TWO SHOULD OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND THEN LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY BACK TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
DIURNAL RANGES THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MOST OF THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE REGION AT THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. BEST STORM COVERAGE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK LOWERING OF VIS AND CIG TO
MAINLY MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR NEARER THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE MOST
SITES HAVE IMPROVED TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS.
DID KEEP SOME MVFR IN THE FAR NORTH FOR CIGS JUST GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THIS SEEMED MATCH UP WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MESO GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A LULL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME -SHRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE CONVECTION COULD FIRE
UP...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THE VCTS/-SHRA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER KANSAS AT 2 AM. A WELL DEVELOPED
SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX...TO
THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. LOCALLY...SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST AT 2 AM. DEW POINTS GENERALLY LAGGED
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM PROBLEM WILL BE CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. SYNOPTIC
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE CATCHING CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WITH
CONVECTION NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL.
MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE. HRRR HAS SQUALL LINE
REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...ABOUT
15Z. NMM IS A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR OVER THE
LAST 3 HOURS WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN EVEN QUICKER THAN
THAT...CLOSER TO 13Z. EVENING LIX SOUNDING WAS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT SYNOPTIC MODELS COULD BE OVERDOING
WARMING AROUND 700 MB...SHOWING A CAP THAT MAY NOT BE THERE THIS
MORNING. UNLESS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...PLAN TO GO MUCH CLOSER TO MESOSCALE MODELING
ON RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. THIS MEANS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS TODAY. SPC HAS ABOUT NORTHWEST
HALF OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE REMAINDER IN A MARGINAL
RISK. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS BASED ON MORNING CONVECTION...BUT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON HOW THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

WILL BE CARRYING HIGHER POPS TONIGHT THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD
INDICATE BASED ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON
THURSDAY...ORGANIZED CONVECTION LESS LIKELY...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR LOCALIZED
CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY.

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION. 35

.LONG TERM...

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAS THIS ALREADY IN
PLACE. 35

.AVIATION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING OVERALL IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR THE
LINE OF CONVECTION TODAY. BEFORE THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES...LOW
CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT KMCB WHERE THE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AROUND DAYBREAK. BOTH THE WRF
AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION STILL HAS IT IMPACTING KBTR AROUND 16Z...KMSY AROUND
18Z...AND KGPT AROUND 20Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z TOMORROW. 32

.MARINE...

INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL OF
THE GULF WATERS AND THE BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS BY TONIGHT.
HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR
TODAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE THESE HEADLINES EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN
WATERS FOR TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF SHOULD
RELAX A BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS SHOULD INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY FRIDAY AND THEN KEEP THESE STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN BACK TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 32

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 60 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 60 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 60 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 60 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 50 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 30 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1226 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

A VERY COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS AT THE AREA AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIALLY...A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL
RANGE FROM A LOW OF 300 TO 500 FEET AT KMCB AND KBTR TO HIGH OF
1500 AT KMSY AND KGPT. SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT
KMCB WHERE IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS COULD ALSO FORM AT KBTR AND KHDC AROUND DAYBREAK.

TRANSITIONING FROM THE FOG THREAT...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT A LINE OF CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
AIRPORT OPERATIONS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HAVE PLACED TSRA
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST...WITH KBTR AND KMCB SEEING THE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 16Z AND KMSY AND KHUM EXPECTING THE STORMS
CLOSER TO 18Z. THE INITIAL LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD PASS
THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT LINGERING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 21Z...AS
THE LINE OF STORMS WEAKENS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS.

GETTING CLOSER TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...WITH A MIX OF
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. 32

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 70 81 69 / 60 30 30 10
BTR 85 71 83 71 / 60 30 30 10
ASD 84 72 81 71 / 60 30 30 20
MSY 85 73 82 72 / 60 30 30 10
GPT 83 73 80 72 / 50 30 40 20
PQL 82 71 80 70 / 30 30 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1157 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFS

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO IFR TERRITORY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
CURRENT TIMING BASED ON GUIDANCE AND SPEED OF THE LINE WILL PUT
THE SQUALL INTO BPT BY 12Z THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO LCH AND
AEX BY 13Z AND 14Z RESPECTIVELY AND FINALLY INTO LFT AND ARA BY
15Z. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEHIND THE SQUALL FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BOTH IN FRONT OF AND BEHIND THE SQUALL AND
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QLCS OVER NRN/CNT TX PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD WITH A BIT MORE OF A
SE MVMT AFTER 06Z...AND IS FCST BY NUMEROUS SHORT RANGE MODELS TO
ENTER OUR INTERIOR EAST TX ZONES AROUND 4 TO 5 AM. WHILE THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...THEY ARE LESS CONSISTENT ON
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE ERODING THE
WARMER TEMPS AT H8 SEEN ON THE KLCH 00Z RAOB AND MAINTAINING A
ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...HAVE INCREASED QPF/POPS FOR THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD
OVER EAST TX BASED ON THE TIMING CONSENSUS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...BASED ON PROGGED WINDS IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...EXTENDED THE SCEC HEADLINE TO INCLUDE THE 0-20NM ZONES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SMALL POPS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE COMBO
OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING ELEVATE WINDS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 86 70 83 69 / 20 20 70 40
LCH 84 73 81 72 / 20 20 60 30
LFT 85 73 84 74 / 20 10 50 40
BPT 83 73 83 72 / 10 40 60 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.

AVIATION...66

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

328 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PLUMMETED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS CLOUDS SHIFTED
SOUTH. THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENTLY ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A CLEARING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND ANOTHER WEAKER LOW TO THE WEST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST ENCROACHES ON THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL START PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY WORKING
IN...THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN. THIS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS
TO SWEEP ACROSS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 50S...STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EPSECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. WHILE
A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...WAVES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WIND
WINDS HOLD CLOSER TO 10 OR 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART.

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BULK
OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW...LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO
AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE COULD RECEIVE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
AS FORCING NEARER THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LONGER
DURATION EVENT.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 123 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE CLEARING LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WILL NOW BE SLOW TO WORK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED...SYNOPTIC SCALE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN PLACE. MODEL DATA
REMAINS STEADFAST THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING. DID FAVOR LATEST RUC DATA
TO HOLD ONTO A BKN/OVC MVFR CIG THROUGH 12Z AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AMOUNT/LONGEVITY OF
DEBRIS CLOUD BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE MORNING. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
WITH A PERSISTENT...BUT RELATIVELY BENIGN EASTERLY WIND.

FOR DTW...TWO ITEMS...EXPECTING EASTERLY WINDSPEEDS TO DROP BELOW 7
KNOTS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10
KNOTS BY MID MORNING. OVC-BKN CIGS OF 2000 FT AGL TO HOLD THROUGH
12Z WITH FEW/SCT DEBRIS CLOUD TO STICK AROUND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN AMOUNT OF CLOUD BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

123 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN AMOUNT OF CLOUD BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1052 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATE...

PER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS THIS EVENING...ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHIAWASSEE TIERS MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM EDT. THERE IS STILL QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL
TAKE CLOUD TO ERODE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A
PRONOUNCED LOW/MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCKED IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP...IT WON`T
TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/MACOMB COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

STRATUS PREVAILS BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION FED BY ONGOING MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAKING INROADS
DURING THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE THUMB FROM THE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION WILL PROVIDE A CHOICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEFLECT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS APPROACHING
60. GRADUAL ABSORPTION OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING
THURSDAY WILL SHUNT RIDGING TO THE EAST. EXPECT, AT THE LEAST, A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. 12Z NWP STRONGLY SUPPORT
THE NOTION THAT FORCING WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS LIFTING SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER HERE, BUT
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KFT OFFER
PHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. THUS, POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY THURS THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE
OTHERWISE STRONG NWP CONSENSUS. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

AFTER A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH MOST WILL SEE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LOCATIONS CLOSER TO OHIO COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO A LONGER
DURATION.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEEDINGLY COMPLEX
WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALL NIGHT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION FROM OUT OF EAST TX AND THE
ARKLATEX...BUT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THIS LINE IS BREAKING UP
QUITE A BIT (ALTHOUGH STILL CONTAINING SCATTERED CHUNKS OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTION). HIRES HRRR RUNS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS
LINE OF STORMS AND FORECASTING IT TO MORE OR LESS STAY INTACT AND
PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE SOME SEVERE RISK (PRIMARILY
FROM DAMAGING WINDS)...BUT THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE REDUCED AND THE PASSAGE OF ACTIVITY WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL ZONE PUSHED
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BUT THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS NOT THE ONLY POSSIBILITY AND THE OTHER
(BUT PROBABLY SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY) OPTION IS THAT THE RECENT TSTORM
LINE DISSOLUTION TREND CONTINUES AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WANES APPRECIABLY WHILE NOT GREATLY STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO RATHER HIGH (2000+
J/KG ML CAPE) INSTABILITY WOULD BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND
SUBTLE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT CATALYZING DEVELOPING OF VIGOROUS HP-TYPE
SUPERCELLS (WHICH WOULD BRING A RANGE OF RISKS...INCLUDING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES).

THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IS WE SEE A MIX OF BOTH SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH
THE DOMINANT SQUALL LINE MODE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE OCCURRENCE OF
ANY SUPERCELLS TO ONE OR TWO AT MOST TO A ZONE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUCH
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND COULD PRESENT A VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.

FINAL DECISION ON THE EXACT HWO/GRAPHICS LAYOUT WILL COME SHORTLY
AND WILL DEPEND ON THE VERY LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE SHORT
TERM MODEL INFO.

BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE INCOMING FRONT TO BE CONFINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ZONES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WANING GRADUALLY FROM LATE EVENING AND
THEREAFTER.

ON THURSDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...BUT CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN MS PROBABLY
GETTING RE-INVIGORATED IN THE AFTERNOON BY THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN
INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT THAT
POINT BUT WIND SHEAR INGREDIENTS NECESSARY TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE "FRONTAL"
ZONE WILL VERY WARM WITH SOME MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S QUITE
PLAUSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE MS
TO BE DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
STORMS COULD POP UP LATE IN THE NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY STARTS TO RETURN BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ORGANIZING UPSTREAM. /BB/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

STARTING ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL BRING SOME MEAN
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA. DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE RISK DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WITH
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8C. HOWEVER FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
FOR ANY SEVERE RISK IN THE HWO. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND FORCING START TO
COME TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS
THAT WE WILL DEVELOP SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD LIFT BY MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS AS A MIDLEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS
CROSSES THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY
RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND
A FEW TORNADOES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITIONS MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE EURO/GFS AND
CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS) THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD BE THE MAIN
WORRY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MS AROUND PIB/HBG. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
START COMING INTO GLH A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE...GETTING TO THE
GWO/JAN/HKS NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY...AND INTO THE
GLH/CBM/NMM/MEI/HBG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE LATTER AREAS THOSE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
SCATTERED TSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS TODAY AWAY FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT CAT PROBLEMS WILL ARISE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. /BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 66 86 65 / 79 55 23 13
MERIDIAN 81 64 84 63 / 75 56 39 12
VICKSBURG 81 66 87 67 / 90 42 14 15
HATTIESBURG 84 66 83 68 / 84 55 45 21
NATCHEZ 80 67 85 69 / 91 43 22 15
GREENVILLE 81 65 86 63 / 80 32 8 12
GREENWOOD 80 65 86 62 / 76 46 11 9

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE EXTENSIVE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM
TEXAS TO IOWA HAS BLOCKED MOISTURE RETURN INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF EAST LATER THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR A FRESH RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE SHORT RANGE
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS RAIN TODAY FROM ROUGHLY MERRIMAN TO BROKEN BOW
THIS MORNING WHICH SHIFTS NORTH FROM VALENTINE TO BURWELL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TONIGHT.

THE FULL MODEL CONSENSUS OF 8 MODELS SUGGESTS A CLOSED H700MB LOW
WILL MOVE INTO SERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SWRN IOWA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAIN LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES
WITH LESS THAN 1 AN INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS NRN NEB. THE SFC LOW
MOVES VERY SLOWLY TODAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH H850MB WINDS NEAR
35KT WOULD SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE RAP AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE RAP MAY BE TOO COLD SO THIS SOFTENS THE RAP SOLN.

LOWS TONIGHT MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. H850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NCNTL
NEB. WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA
PREVENTING ANY SORT OF RADIATION CONDITION FROM DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MID RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SLOWLY MOVES EAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROUNDS
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THURSDAY MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS
WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW... SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER... AND H85 TEMPS STAYING RANGING
FROM 0C TO 5C... FELT UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WERE REASONABLE. KEPT
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO MODEST MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL SNOW FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING... BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE WELL BELOW THE DGZ... AND WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING... SLRS WILL BE LOW. THE NEXT IMPULSE
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SECOND UPPER LOW. MID LEVEL
FGEN AND MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION BEFORE 06Z SOUTH OF I-80 AS NAM
SHOWS LIMITED CAPE... SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. THU NIGHT MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NEB... MAINLY SHERIDAN COUNTY. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLEAR ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW... SO
LEFT PTYPE AS RASN FOR NOW.

FOR FRIDAY... LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO AS RENEWED CAA
RESULTS IN THE HIGHEST H85 TEMPS OF ONLY 3C. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATION
ACROSS THE AREA... BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT AT 295K AND
300K. NAM SOUNDINGS HINT AT PERIODS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT IN THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS WITH OMEGA SURPASSING -20US. COULD BE LOOKING
AT 24 HR PRECIP TOTALS NEAR ONE INCH ENDING 12Z SATURDAY... WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW PWAT VALUES ABOUT 1 STDEV
ABOVE CLIMO. FRIDAY NIGHT... TEMPS AGAIN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY BUT LEFT PTYPE AS RASN AS RELATIVE WARM AIR
EXISTS TO 750HPA.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST BETWEEN GFS AND EURO REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE H5 LOW AND
H3 JET. HOWEVER... BOTH KEEP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA. FELT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIKELY/DEFINITE POPS SATURDAY GIVEN DECENT
MOISTURE DRAW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. TAKING A BLEND OF THE DEW
POINTS... LOWER 40S RESULT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALSO
KEPT THUNDER MENTION DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER
SUNDAY... CAPPED POPS TO CHC DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES BUT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL REMAINS TO CONTINUE PRECIP MENTION. GRADUAL
WARMING AT H85 OCCURS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 7C BY
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL... EXPECTING A COOLER THAN AVERAGE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW WITH MVFR/IFR
STRATUS TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION. CONCERNED NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LIMIT THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORTING INTO THE REGION. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE F-
GEN BAND TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CALLS FOR LESS RAINFALL...AS EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1144 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
THE WY/CO BORDER...WITH ELONGATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH CO/NM.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LOW AND ALSO HAD
WEAKENED...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 95KT IN AZ/NM. 850MB LOW WAS CENTERED
IN EASTERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER
AND DRYLINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH WESTERN OK/CENTRAL TX.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT...8C+ MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
ACROSS EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL-EASTERN KS/OK...WITH UP TO 45KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 20C+ EXTENDED
THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL MO...WITH LOWER LAPSE
RATES IN EASTERN NEB/EASTERN KS IN AREA AFFECTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION. AT 18Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF KSLN TO NEAR KEMP...AND LIKELY
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EVIDENT FROM NEAR KCNK TO NEAR KMYZ TO NORTH OF
KFNB TO NEAR KICL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO THREW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN THAT
SUPPRESSED THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWARD INTO KS. SOME RECOVERY HAS
OCCURRED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GHOST OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB...THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS STILL IN PLACE
AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR IS STILL IN CENTRAL KS. WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND RECOVERY...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THAT WARM
SECTOR TO RECOVER IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NEB...ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ALL ATTENDANT THREATS. NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR HAILERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION GETS GOING. THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED IN A
TORNADO WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING...AND WITH
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN NO HURRY TO EXIT...MAY REGENERATE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
THREAT TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO CENTRAL NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...DRAWING A WARM SECTOR INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IA
IN THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THREATS ARE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...RISK OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES EXIST...WITH THREATS FOR
HAIL...WIND...AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL ON GETTING SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY IN BREAKS
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. RISK OF STORMS SHOULD WANE EARLIER IN
THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR DRAWS DOWN INTO EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...BUT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FINALLY GIVES US A
BREATHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RETURN
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY AND MURKY PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW SLIDES TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA WILL MOSTLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH LOW RISK FOR THUNDER BUT CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY AROUND MONDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRETTY MESSY FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY E INTO
THE AREA. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

1156 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/N CENTRAL OK EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL
HAPPEN SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF THIS EVENING WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE LINE. STORMS HAVE ENDED IN WESTERN PARTS OF FA AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE
TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW THE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
0Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 77 50 79 / 100 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 77 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 81 53 84 / 60 0 0 10
GAGE OK 48 73 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 74 48 76 / 100 10 0 0
DURANT OK 58 82 56 84 / 100 10 0 0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/30/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

504 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING AN OVC LAYER OF THICK
HIGH-BASED STRATO CU. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE BRUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PENN
TURNPIKE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT
MOST.

LOW TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE FROSTY LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. SOME LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE MAY NOT DIP
BELOW 50F THANKS TO THICKER/LAYER CLOUD COVER.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS MORNING /AND LIKELY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENN.
LATEST HRRR AT VARIOUS GRID POINTS ACROSS NRN PENN AND SRN NEW
YORK STATE INDICATES DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TO DISSOLVE
THE STRATUS OR PUSH IT SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.

TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOWEST PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CURRENT DRY/COOL AIRMASS
WILL SINK INTO PENN TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ACROSS THE NE...TO SLIGHTLY OVER 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS JUST AS CHILLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHEN LOWS IN
THE L-M 30S WILL BE COMMON. THE RELATIVELY THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE KICKOFF OF MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY TUE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN AS A FAIRLY
WELL- ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIKELY
RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

349 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHALLOW...LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS WAS COMBINING WITH
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND AN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS TO CREATE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...BKN-OVC STRATUS AND STRATOCU. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF PENN...A SHIELD OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BLOWING
NORTHEAST OF SEVERAL MCS/S...WAS TOPPING A BKN-OVC LAYER OF HIGH-
BASED STRATO CU.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
LIKELY RESULTING IN MCLDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS /AFTER THE
BREAKUP OF SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS/. A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD TRANSITION INTO PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN...AND MORE NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LEADING EDGE TODAY.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

241 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MAX TEMPS BTWN 60-65F WILL BE COMMON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF THE NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S.
&&

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SAT WILL BE DRY.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE
TOWARD MAY. THE PERIOD FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RAIN.

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT THAT INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTN IS ALIGNED WEST TO EAT ACROSS SRN PA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT GOOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
SRN HALF TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PA OVERNIGHT. LOWER /IFR/ CIGS
IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NW PA AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE STATE TOMORROW RETURNING ALL
SITES TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWEST OUT OF NE/IA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY ALL
NIGHT...WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BACK OFF ON QPF. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WERE THE FIRST ONES TO REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW THIS DRYING TREND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE 00Z EC SHOWS THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS WELL. BUT WHAT HAS BEEN MORE
CONVINCING IS EVEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOW LATCHED
ON TO THIS TREND AS WELL. ASIDE FROM SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BECOME
RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE COTEAU REGION DOWN THROUGH WATERTOWN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY TODAY AND IN FACT...MODELS
SHOW 925/850MB TEMPS DROPPING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FALLING TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEST RIVER LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IA...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SO LOOK FOR DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS WELL...AND WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH...WILL ALREADY BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER TROF/LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACCORDING
TO MODEL DATA. THAT SYSTEM GETS SHOVED EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THAT TIME SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE REGION. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES
IN RAIN AND FOG. OTHERWISE...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT PIR
AND MBG WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

343 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
WITH AN ADVANCING SQUALL LINE IN ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS WERE
FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE BUT HAVE REMAINED JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA.
THE INTENSITY OF LINE AND RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WANING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE ARKLATEX...LIKELY DUE TO
THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW
60S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOW 70S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODELS TAKE A 500MB LOW FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO IOWA. ON THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST. HOW THE CONVECTION UNFOLDS IS STILL ANYONE`S
GAME. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THE ARKANSAS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPLIT LEAVING THE MORE INTENSE STORMS TO TRACK OUTSIDE
OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEAKER STORMS AND THICKER
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH IN AND MAY REINTENSIFY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. THEN...BACK TO THE WEST THESE MODELS HINT AT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS POPPING UP IN THE DELTA COUNTIES WITH THE
DRYLINE BEFORE SUNSET THAT MAY GO SEVERE. THIS BAND WOULD THEN
TRACK EAST MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT SO KEEN ON THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION FORMING...LEAVING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH DRIER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. SO HAVE
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TO CAPTURE THE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT/LOW CONFIDENCE. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5C. SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
LARGE HAIL IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIGGER CAN POP NEW
STORMS. BELIEVE BOTH THE DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE DAY GOES ON...AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES DECLINE FROM THE FILLING LOW. HIGHS TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES COULD SEE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THE LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH WEST WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
THINKING THIS PERIOD. MODELS DRIVE ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A JET STREAK EMERGING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY...REDUCING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S...BUT
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WON`T BE TO FAR OFF...CLOSER TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT
LIFTS NORTH. A UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.
NARROWING DOWN A TIME FRAME OR BETTER DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
TO DIFFICULT ATT...BUT THE THREAT DOES EXIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN SUNDAY. THE AREA WOULD THEN SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAB

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS TURNED WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE NNE
TONIGHT AT KJBR KMKL AND KMEM. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE AT THE LATEST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KTS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE BY SUNRISE WITH CONDS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR CIGS AT KJBR KMEM AND KMKL BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCLUDED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ON TIMING WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR CONDS BY SUNSET
WITH VCSH INCLUDED TO END THE PERIOD AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

ZDM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1140 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER KY AND NORTHWEST TN WAS EDGING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...EXTENDING EAST TO
JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN AT 9 PM. 00Z NAM LAYER DUCT FUNCTION
SUGGESTS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO...ALBEIT AT A LIKELY
SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN AGAIN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

ZDM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

1233 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

.AVIATION...MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/VFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI WITH MVFR VSBYS AT KLRD /AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS AT
KLRD LATE IN THE NIGHT/. STRONG THERMAL INVERSION CONTINUES TO
TRAP NEAR THE SFC REMNANT SMOKE/PARTICULATE MATTER FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNS ACROSS YUCATAN MX WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT ACROSS S TX. IN
ADDITION...INVERSION WILL MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF S TX. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...A SURFACE FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N WITH CIGS BRIEFLY
SPREADING ACROSS KLRD /AND POSSIBLY MIXING OUT A BIT ACROSS
KCRP/KALI WHERE INVERSION WEAKENS AND WIND FIELDS WEAKEN.
WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH S ACROSS THE TERMINALS AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE DSPTNG WITH SKIES CLEARING DRNG THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
THIN BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS KVCT/KCRP AROUND
12Z...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF THUNDER AT KVCT FOR NOW /AND
EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDONE/. VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL AT ALL S TX
TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS
SPREAD WWRD ACROSS KCRP/KVCT WED EVENING. GUSTY SSERLY SFC WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING LATE IN THE NIGHT...THEN LIGHT/VRB DRNG MUCH
OF THE DAY WED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 91 72 86 75 / 20 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 71 90 69 87 72 / 40 30 10 20 20
LAREDO 71 99 71 97 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 72 96 70 90 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 74 85 73 83 75 / 20 30 10 20 10
COTULLA 68 95 65 94 74 / 20 10 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 74 94 72 89 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 85 74 83 75 / 20 20 10 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

RH/79...AVIATION

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A band of thunderstorms is moving east across roughly the southern
third of west central Texas. This band of thunderstorms will
primarily affect KJCT, while KBBD will be on the northern edge
of this convective activity. Gusty winds, small hail and heavy
rain are expected at KJCT, along with frequent lightning. The band
of convection will be east of KJCT prior to 0715Z. Farther north
and west, patchy high cloud cover will traverse the area into the
overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected area wide late
tonight through Wednesday. Light south to southwest winds will
veer to the west by early Wednesday morning, and winds will ve
from the west at 10-15 knots during the day.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1043 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated for the newly issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, which is in effect for Sutton, Menard,
Kimble, Mason and San Saba. The HRRR has been consistent
with indications for new convective development across the
southeastern part of our area toward Midnight.

Farther north, the Tornado Watch continues in effect until
Midnight. Once the convections clears those counties, early
Watch cancellation is possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
The Tornado Watch has been cancelled for our Big Country counties,
and farther south to Coke and Tom Green Counties. PoPs were
adjusted and reduced based on the current placement of the
convection.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A strong to severe QLCS is moving east across the Big Country,
with the trailing portion across eastern Coke County. Other
scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing north of Ozona
and just west of San Angelo. The KABI ASOS recorded a 55 knot
wind gust at 644 pm. The QLCS will continue moving east through
the rest of the Big Country through late evening. Other storms
could develop further and strengthen near and southwest of San
Angelo. Addition thunderstorm development could occur into the
night farther east and south across west central Texas. Outside
of convective activity, VFR conditions are expected. All
convection should be out of west central Texas by 3 AM. Generally
clear skies are expected during the day Wednesday with west winds
10-15 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

Large Hail and Damaging Winds and Tornadoes This Evening...

A dryline and strong upper dynamics will combine to continue
thunderstorms this evening. With surface based CAPE values around
4000 J/Kg across many of our eastern counties this afternoon, any
thunderstorms which develop will rapidly intensify. The dryline this
afternoon extends just west of a line from near Ozona to Sweetwater.
Thunderstorms have developed along and near this dryline and will
move into our western counties within an hour. Movement will be
toward the northeast. Based on all indicators, the greatest tornado
threat lies mainly along and northeast of a line from Haskell, to
Abilene, to Coleman, to Brownwood. In addition, very large hail is
possible northeast of this line. We have issued Tornado watch number
109, which continues until midnight CDT tonight, and includes those
counties lying along and east or northeast of a line from Haskell,
to Roby, to San Angelo, to San Saba. Later tonight, a Pacific cold
front will push from west to east across West Central Texas and
bring another round of thunderstorms. As this front moves across
West Central Texas, thunderstorms will form a line, and this line
will extend from north to south across most of West Central Texas.

(Wednesday)

Dry and Cooler...

The Pacific front will quickly push convection east of West Central
Texas and bring drier air, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
High tomorrow will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s. winds will be
mainly from the west in the 10 to 15 mph range.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Generally dry conditions are expected on Thursday ahead of the next
approaching upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures Thursday
afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 80s to near 90. Rain
chances will increase Thursday night across the area as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves closer and large scale lift
results in scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible.

Friday afternoon, a Pacific front will move through West Central
Texas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of this feature. This will result in a better chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms, especially across the eastern half of the
forecast area. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Highs on Friday will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s. Generally
dry conditions are expected this weekend, with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the 50s.

The next upper level trough will approach the Southern Plains early
next week. Differences continue in the exact timing and track of
this system, but a wetter/cooler pattern looks likely for the first
part of next week.

Daniels

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 88 66 84 / 0 10 40 50
San Angelo 55 90 66 88 / 0 10 40 30
Junction 52 88 68 87 / 0 20 30 40

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1206 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 BRING THE LINE OF STORMS INTO KCLL AND KUTS
BY AROUND 07Z...AND THEN KCXO AND KIAH BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z. THE
LOW-LEVEL CAP MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE STORMS TO REACH ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT KHOU AND KSGR BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. THE LATEST MODELS ALSO
DO NOT BRING A WIND SHIFT THROUGH KHOU OR KSGR. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 02Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT CRP/LCH AND SHV. PW
VALUES ARE UP TO 1.59 AT CRP AND 1.20 AT LCH AND SHV. CAPE VALUES
ARE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING
INVERSION LOOK STEEP. AT 850 MB...A STRONG LLJ WAS ORIENTED FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH DEEP 850 MB MSTR
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TX/OK. AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED N-S ACROSS WEST TEXAS. 700 MB TEMPS WERE 12C AT CRP AND
A FAIRLY WARM 700MB LAYER IS IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-10. AT 300
MB...WINDS WERE STRONGLY DIVERGENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE BUT WINDS ALOFT LOOK SOME WHAT ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST HOUSTON BEFORE RETURNING BACK
INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 87 70 85 70 / 10 20 30 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 87 73 85 71 / 10 20 20 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 83 73 81 74 / 20 10 20 30 30

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

1139 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WE HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...STRONG
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM.

AVIATION...
GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ABOUT 35 KTS AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01 UTC...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
RENEWING MODERATE BREEZES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
SOME LIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLDU THROUGH ABOUT 01 UTC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WILL BE MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES ALONG AND BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING
STROKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH THE ACTIVITY AND SO HAVE MADE
MENTION OF DRY THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA.
PEAK WINDS LOOK TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 30 KTS ARE BEING OBSERVED.
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 20 KTS APPEAR TO BE THE
NORM. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO A QUITE PLEASANT DAY.

LONG TERM...
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY BACKING WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
EJECT OUT OVER THE PANHANDLES BUT A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET TAKES OVER. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND STALL OUT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER
STALLING THE FRONT OUT WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.

SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE A VOID OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF THE FA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE FA
WOULD LIKELY BE TRANSIENT. AFTER THE THURSDAY TROUGH KICKS OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY WITH REGARDS TO ANY
LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. BUT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CREATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1043 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated for the newly issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, which is in effect for Sutton, Menard,
Kimble, Mason and San Saba. The HRRR has been consistent
with indications for new convective development across the
southeastern part of our area toward Midnight.

Farther north, the Tornado Watch continues in effect until
Midnight. Once the convections clears those counties, early
Watch cancellation is possible.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

Large Hail and Damaging Winds and Tornadoes This Evening...

(Wednesday)

Dry and Cooler...

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Daniels

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 55 85 57 88 / 10 0 0 10
San Angelo 53 88 55 90 / 10 0 0 10
Junction 54 88 52 88 / 60 5 0 20

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Just a few adjustments needed to todays forecast with tightening
the temperature gradient from NNE to SSW today and some tweaks to
weather elements today. An expanding band of showers was spreading
ne toward I-74 late this morning with a few thunderstorms south of
I-70 especially near Lawrenceville. Strong 995 mb surface low
pressure over eastern Nebraska had a warm front over ne MO into
far SW IL and northern KY, south of I-64. Dewpoints range from
lower 60s from I-70 south to the mid 40s from Galesburg and Lacon
north. Temps ragne from upper 40s from Galesburg and Lacon north
to the lower 60s in southeast IL. HRRR model doing better with
handling convection today and leaned on this model for forecast
update today. Should continue to see showers become more
widespread with a few thunderstorms developing during mid day and
then diminish from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon. But
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening with approaching warm front. SPC
day1 outlook has slight risk of severe storms sw of a Macomb to
Lincoln to Terre Haute line from mainly late afternoon into mid
evening as warm front slowly pushes into sw IL with increasing
instability in our SW counties as MUCapes elevate to 1-2k J/kg.
Highs today will struggle to reach 60F over northern CWA from
Peoria and Bloomington north, to lower 70s in southeast IL south
of I-70.

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys expected over most of the TAF sites thru
at least this morning before we see cigs rise into the MVFR to low
VFR category this afternoon. Periods of showers and TSRA can be
expected as well as a frontal boundary, currently to our south,
shifts slowly north into south central Illinois later today. The
first wave of rain and isold TSRA just west of STL this morning
will shift northeast into our area during the morning hours before
a temporary break in the rain moves in early this afternoon. That
will be followed by another wave of showers and possibly some
strong TSRA (especially for SPI and DEC) after 20z. Forecast
soundings do indicate enough turbulent mixing occurring with
the rainshowers and storms to bring the cigs to low VFR at times
this afternoon. Areas from PIA and BMI may stay in the IFR range
thru most of the day, while our southern TAF sites, SPI, DEC and
CMI may see the temporary cigs up to low VFR at times this
afternoon and evening before returning back to at least MVFR
category late tonight. Surface winds will be easterly at 12 to 17
kts today with a few gusts around 23 kts at times. Easterly flow
expected again tonight but with speeds diminishing to 8 to 13 kts
as the surface low approaches the area.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

649 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TIMING THE PRECIP
ARRIVAL AND OF COURSE TEMPS. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CLEAR
OUT IN SPOTS AT TIMES...HIGH CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO KEEP CHARACTER
OF THE DAY CLOUDY. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH
SOME FOG POTENTIAL EVEN NEAR THE LAKE AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ATTEMPT
TO SPREAD NORTH AND INTERACT WITH THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER. UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING
QUICKLY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
320 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND PERHAPS A GOOD CHUNK OF SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW WOBBLES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD
THE AREA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
RESULTANT RAIN CHANCES HERE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SOUTH SOME AND GFS SLOWER...BUT DIDN`T REALLY MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE LOCKED IN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NO WHERE WILL THOSE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BE AS PRONOUNCED AND DRAMATIC AS ALONG THE
LAKE FRONT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY NOT
REACH 50F ALONG THE LAKEFRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND!

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR STRATUS IS OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT RFD. SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MVFR
STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THIS AFTN. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEGIN GUSTING TO 25 KT LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN OCCURRING TONIGHT...AND MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING BUT MOST MODELS FEATURE THE MAIN SWATH
OF RAIN ROTATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR RFD AND THEN MID
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO ADD VCTS AS WELL.
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
REGION BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND EXACT LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THERE
IS A CHANCE IFR CIGS MAY ALSO CREEP OVER THE TERMINALS. DID NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS SO KEPT THEM AS A SCT LAYER
FOR NOW.

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1019 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE FINED TUNED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
RECENT CAM RUNS AND DENOTE THE MOST PROBABLE BREAKS IN ANY
PRECIP. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO HWY 34 BY
21-22Z AND SURFACE OBS MATCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE FRONT STARTING
TO NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW A POCKET OF CLEARING IN SE NEBRASKA
SPREADING EASTWARD AND TRENDS WITH THIS CLEARING WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAINLY IFR CIG WITH OCNL LIFR CIGS. SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 00Z BUT
TIMING OF THE SCT PRECIP DIFFICULT. I HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. KDSM
AND KOTM WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BUCKLE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT
OF SE NEB. STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FM 21-01Z INVOF THE FRONT WITH
MULTIPLE AVIATION HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED LATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
MODEL. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH OUT THE MORNING THAT WERE NOT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST EITHER. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNINGS SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY...THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM 13Z THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DATA AND ACTUAL OBS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WERE ALSO INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE ALREADY HAD AND ARE
ANTICIPATING THE REST OF TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WSR-88D IS TRACKING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN SPARED THE THUNDER THIS
MORNING UNLIKE PORTION OF CENTRAL KY...BUT DID ADD ISOLATED BY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN CASE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATES INTO THE REGION. OVERALL ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE
RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR..BUT SOME MVFR COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THAT CLOUD BASES
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH LOWEST CIGS AT AROUND 4 KFT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY...EASTERN KY ONLY SEEING SHOWERS. DID BEGIN
TO INTRODUCE SOME VCTS TOWARD THE LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL SITES. BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING GENERALLY
AFTER 00Z...RIGHT NOW THINK BASED ON SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF DROPS IN CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR OR
LOWER LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

808 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NOTABLE WARMING HAS OCCURRED SINCE 00Z BETWEEN 925 AND 700MB WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB. ABOVE THIS CAPPING
INVERSION...700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP NEAR 9C/KM. THERE IS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR 2300 J/KG SO
ONGOING SQUALL LINE/QLCS SHOULD PERSIST. HAIL THREAT IS A CONCERN
WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT NEAR 9200 FEET AND COUPLED WITH THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 825MB AND 600MB
LEADING TO A MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 860 J/KG. 0-1 AND 0-3KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW FOR TORNADOES...THOUGH WILL
BE WATCHING FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SQUALL LINE/QLCS AS STORMS MODIFIED LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT ASCENDING FOR 103 MINUTES
TRAVELING 46 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST
AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES NEAR GULFPORT.

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION. 35

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 70 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 70 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 60 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 50 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 40 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 30 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1031 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE TYPICAL MORNING LULL. PER
THE LATEST HI RES MODELS, THE MAIN LINE BREAKS UP AFTER 18Z AND MOVES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 4PM. A CAP WILL BE THE FIRST THING THE
STORMS HAVE TO FIGHT OFF THIS MORNING BUT WITH VERY GOOD MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DECENT CAPE, STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE POTENT AS
DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS
HAPPENING. WITH THE LINE BREAKING UP AFTER 18Z AND PUSHING OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
ENOUGH BEFORE SUNSET TO TRIGGER A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IN CENTRAL
MS. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE TORNADO THREAT THOUGH. FYI,
WE WILL BE RELEASING A 17Z BALLOON IF WE CAN GET IT IN BEFORE THE
RAIN AND STORMS MOVE IN SO LOOK FORWARD TO GETTING THAT DATA.

FOR THE UPDATE, THE HWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE LATEST SEVERE
WEATHER THINKING. ADJUSTED THE POPS BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW. /10/

.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BUT EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
REDEVELOP AND BRING IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE JAN/CBM LINE. CIGS WILL BREAK
UP AND MIX OUT MID/LATE THURS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

..SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEEDINGLY COMPLEX
WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FINAL DECISION ON THE EXACT HWO/GRAPHICS LAYOUT WILL COME SHORTLY
AND WILL DEPEND ON THE VERY LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE SHORT
TERM MODEL INFO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 66 86 65 / 73 55 23 13
MERIDIAN 81 64 84 63 / 73 56 39 12
VICKSBURG 81 66 87 67 / 90 42 14 15
HATTIESBURG 84 66 83 68 / 83 55 45 21
NATCHEZ 80 67 85 69 / 91 43 22 15
GREENVILLE 81 65 86 63 / 80 32 8 12
GREENWOOD 80 65 86 62 / 70 46 11 9

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

639 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MIXED LIFR/IFR/MVFR AND VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHEILD WHICH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF LOW CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN NEB...ALONG HIGHWAY 20. AREAS
SOUTH OF HWY 20 SHOULD EXPERIENCE MVFR/VFR CIGS TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1144 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BRINGING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR
SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY
EASTWARD.

SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS COULD HANG PRETTY TOUGH OVER
THE SOUTH WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS RACING EAST AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE OOZES DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SUB VFR CONDITIONS
JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PA TERMINALS. FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...IMPROVEMENT MAY BE HARD TO COME BY WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 3000` INTO THURSDAY.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA...BRINGING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

1022 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CUT IN HALF CLOUD-COVER-WISE WITH CLEAR
SKIES FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY...WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FULTON COUNTY
EASTWARD.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE CANADIAN HIGH NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO FORM.

MOST OF SAT STILL APPEARS DRY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF TEMPORARILY. .

OVERALL NOT LOOKING REAL COLD...AS MAYBE THE GUIDANCE HINTED
AT THE OTHER DAY...BUT A WETTER PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OVERNIGHT AND LINGER POSS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
WED BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.

OUTLOOK...

WED...CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

SUN...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

616 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT KPIR/KMBG WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS. KABR/KATY WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND A BIT MORE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT BOTH
KATY AND KABR.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1018 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE BEFORE 12Z MODELS START COMING IN LATER THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED POP GRIDS A BIT TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SHOWING CONVECTION WEST OF I65 BEFORE/AROUND 00Z AND EAST
THEREAFTER. ALSO ADDED IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE VERY HIGH
SURFACE RH VALUES FROM PRECIP AND SHOWING LOW VIS OVERNIGHT AS A
RESULT FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT. SINCE CLOUDS ARE MAINLY BKN TO SCT
THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS WELL. LATEST HOURLY TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO CONTINUED THAT TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE TN
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REMAINING AREAS WEST
OF I65. SPC HAS BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST BUT STILL
LOOKING LIKE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. AFTER 12Z MODELS ARRIVE...MAY HAVE
ANOTHER UPDATE IF ANY MAJOR CHANGES ARE SHOWN.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH A WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD BEING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE HRRR HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MID
STATE EVEN DURING THE MORNING AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH
REMARKS FOR NOW.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1009 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WITH SOME REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOOKING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR SOME MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES
NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

JAB

.AVIATION...12Z UPDATE.

VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE...ESPECIALLY
NOW THOUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT FREQUENT AMENDMENTS BASED
ON RADAR COVERAGE AND TRENDS.

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN
IT COMES TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS OF THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ONLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT JBR TO INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN VCTS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND ATTEMPT
TO TIME ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ON STATION IMPACTS AS THEY DEVELOP.

BRIEF MVFR VIS OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT VARY AS MANY OUTFLOW
ALREADY IN PLACE BOUNDARIES SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MAKING CONDITIONS EVEN
MORE COMPLICATED/VARIABLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT BASED ON DEEP
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH THIS EVENING...WITH NO PRECIP
TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CIGS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN OBSERVED...SO
WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE CIG FORECAST TODAY.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

631 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

JAB

.AVIATION...12Z UPDATE.

VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE...ESPECIALLY
NOW THOUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT FREQUENT AMENDMENTS BASED
ON RADAR COVERAGE AND TRENDS.

GUIDANCE CIGS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN OBSERVED...SO
WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE CIG FORECAST TODAY.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

541 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DIED OFF
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER WITH A QUICK PEAK TO THE
WEST...WE SEE THE NEXT COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE TIMING OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE DURING THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING HOURS LEADING TO AN INCREASE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 65MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION FOR TODAY IS SOMEWHAT MURKY AS IT`S
NOT QUITE CLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO MATERIALIZE. REGARDLESS... SOMETHING TO WATCH
TODAY WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND WHATEVER SEVERE THREAT THAT EXISTS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH IT BEING THE LATE APRIL/EARLY
MAY TIME FRAME ON THE CALENDAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE BIGGEST HAZARDS ONCE AGAIN
LOOKING TO BE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IT`S QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT NEITHER SATURDAY NOR SUNDAY ARE COMPLETE WASHOUTS
WITH RAIN...BUT DO THINK STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY INTERFERE WITH
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
NEAR 60 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE AREA DRIES OUT SOME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOO EARLY TO
TELL THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT NOTHING
HIGH IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA AFTER THIS WEEKEND FOR NOW.
IN FACT...HIGHS GO BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S UNDER SOMEWHAT CLOUDY
SKIES.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................HURLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1031 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO MARYLAND THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ON FRIDAY A STRONGER LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS INTO
KENTUCKY AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY.

SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THIS
REGION FOR TODAY.

THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 400 J/KG...AND WITH
A SLIGHT INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE...A COUPLE OF THE STORMS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE
NOTED IN KENTUCKY ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DRIFTS INTO
OUR REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION AND SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AND MAY PICK UP IN COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW
NIGHTS...LOWS WILL BE MILD...10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT. THE OVERALL
FLAVOR OF THINGS IS FOR THE TROF/CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST TO EJECT PIECES
OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION WHICH ARE INTERSPERSED WITH PULSES FROM AN
EASTERN RIDGE. BY THURSDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GIVE ENOUGH PUSH TO
NUDGE THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE SO THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...THEN ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT AND
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR LATER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER LOW
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS FEATURES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND BITS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARDS THE REGION. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE
DAMPENED BY THE RIDGE...BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL
HAVE BEEN DISPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW...AND BY MONDAY...LOW/TROUGH
SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION.

ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO EASTERN VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
HAVE MORE THAN VCTS IN THE TAFS.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE CONVECTION. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z/2PM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/EXTENT/DURATION IS LOW.

MVFR CHILLINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KROA/KLYH/KBLF/KLWB/KBCB. GFS WAS TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OR SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TO
PUSH THE WEAKER FRONT OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/MBS
AVIATION...AMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly large band of showers and a few thunderstorms over
central IL early this afternoon will gradually lift ne and become
more widely scattered from sw to ne during mid/late afternoon.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop behind this band during late afternoon and into the
evening as a warm front pushes ne into sw IL. Strong 995 mb
surface low pressure over eastern Nebraska will weaken to 1006 mb
as it moves into southern IA Thu morning. This will push a warm
front from northeast MO and far SW IL into central IL by Thu
morning as it occludes. IFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail through
next 24 hours with IFR to MVFR vsbys prevailing as well, though
will be up to VFR at times. Models show a dry slot working ne into
central IL Thu morning especially by SPI and DEC where ceilings
could lift up to VFR or even scatter out. Breezy east winds around
15 kts with gusts 18-24 kts this afternoon to diminish to around
10 kts by overnight and veer more west along I-74 while staying
ENE at PIA and BMI.

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

1110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
1110 AM CDT

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND TIMING
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE
AREA OF SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 3-4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NOT LATER...BEFORE THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE LOOKS LOW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI COULD
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLE IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY WEAKEN.

OVERALL...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE MID 40S...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND.

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
320 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

IZZI

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

JEE

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE AIRPORTS AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. DURING TIMES WHEN NO
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE AFFECTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN GENERAL...WITH STRONGER GUSTIER WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...PG/JP
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1233 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING OR TEMPO THUNDER FOR THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
HOURS OF IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.

.16Z SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB HAS WEAKENED A FEW DEGREES FROM
THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING AND SURFACE BASED PARCELS ARE UNINHIBITED WITH
AROUND 3600 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WEAKENING HAS BEEN
OCCURRING WITH THE MAIN SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE NOTICED
RECENT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES AS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUE IS NEARLY
UNCHANGED AND DRIER AIR HAS MIXED DOWN TO AROUND 2300 FEET. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB
ZERO LEVEL HAVE HAD ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAIL THREAT MAY BE
DIMINISHED SOME DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

WILL TREND TOWARD MIDDLE/LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
UNDERPLAYING CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 83 69 83 68 / 80 40 30 10
BTR 84 70 85 70 / 80 40 30 10
ASD 84 72 83 70 / 80 40 30 20
MSY 84 72 84 72 / 80 40 30 10
GPT 82 72 81 71 / 60 40 40 20
PQL 81 70 81 69 / 40 40 30 20

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...95/DM
SOUNDING...ANSORGE
PREV DISCUSSION...35/32

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

108 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

1100 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
MORNING AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SHEARING AS IT DOES
SO. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SOME CONVECTION.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE
RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL INLAND TERMINALS. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN IN MVFR CIGS
AND MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE AS TO THE EXACT TIME ON WHEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, SO WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SETTLING IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE RAP SUGGEST SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS COULD END UP CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE OBSERVATION AT BUOY 15 WITH
SUSTAINED PEAK GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR THE CAPES THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST
WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN/PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/15/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1242 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY NEAR ATY AND
SE...AND INCLUDED MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FAR W THIS MORNING.
JUST GOT A REPORT OF LOWERING TEMPS AND SNOW MIXING IN OVER W
STANLEY CO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR/LOW VFR
CIGS THAT WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW. VSBY WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1106 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1203 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1009 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

ARS

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

SHRAS/TSRAS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MS WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT KTUP AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. CAN/T RULE OUT KMEM AND KMKL BEING ON
THE EDGE OF THE TSRA COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THUS HAVE KEPT THE VCTS WORDING GOING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

KRM

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

114 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS INTO
KENTUCKY AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...

ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO KENTUCKY.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO INCLUDED
VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CIGS WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT TO KLYH AND PERHAPS TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES
EXCEPT KBLF AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT DIPS SOUTH BRINGING A LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AT KLYH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY.

MORE WIDSPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LITTLE ROCK AR

255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

DID LOWER AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LACK OF
LIFT...BUT STILL KEPT SOME IN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE OK AND AR STATE LINE. SO FAR HAVE SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS BEEN LIMITED IN ITS COVERAGE. SW
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE MORNING KLIT SOUNDING DID HAVE A PACKET OF DRIER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7K FEET. DUE TO LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AR. ALOFT
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN KS...WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED TO THE NE OF AR. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
FIRST PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FACTORS HAVE LOWERED FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT. TONIGHT
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF AR...A BIT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN OVER AR ON THURSDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MILD
DAY WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL START THEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF AR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
LOW PRESSURE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY BUT WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
AND BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD WESTERN
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 58 82 58 73 / 20 0 10 40
CAMDEN AR 60 86 64 76 / 20 10 10 70
HARRISON AR 54 79 54 71 / 20 0 10 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 84 62 74 / 20 10 10 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 85 61 75 / 20 10 10 60
MONTICELLO AR 64 85 65 79 / 30 10 10 70
MOUNT IDA AR 56 84 61 73 / 20 10 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 81 56 72 / 20 0 10 40
NEWPORT AR 60 83 59 75 / 30 0 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 62 85 63 77 / 20 10 10 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 84 60 74 / 20 0 10 60
SEARCY AR 60 83 59 75 / 20 0 10 50
STUTTGART AR 63 84 62 76 / 30 10 10 50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

351 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.

KCOS...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER KCOS LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO OCCUR. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PRECIP MAY SLACKEN UP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIP WILL BE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT MAY TURN
OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME SLUSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT...ESPECIALLY IF LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
DEVELOP.

MVFR SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW AS KCOS DUE TO THE MOIST GUSTY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP. PRECIP 9RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX) WILL LIKELY BECOME STEADY BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KPUB

SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIP
CHANCES (RAIN) WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
IFR LIKELY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. GUSTY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

KALS

SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24H PERIOD...BUT
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ063-072-074-076>079-084.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL

249 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

1110 AM CDT

KJB

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY

IZZI

.LONG TERM...
248 PM CDT

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE...COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION...OR COME CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL IMPACTS SHOULD SOME CHANGES OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE ENE...ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN.
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT ON THE PATH OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL REPRESENT THE TAIL END OF THE PCPN EVENT
MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN FORCING
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE OVER THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES AND SRN WI...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE A COOL...DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. PREVAILING NELY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS MUCH COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50F. BY SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN ...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REBOUNDING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF A SFC WARM FRONT. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IN THE
FINER SCALE DETAILS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOL FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN PLACE. SO...WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES
MAKE BE ABLE TO REACH AROUND 60 F ON SUNDAY...THE LAKEFRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS AGAIN ONLY AROUND 50F...AND POSSIBLY
ONLY UPPER 40S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ENTERS INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION IS
SHUNTED EAST TO THE NERN CONUS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WARMING TREND
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT...WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GEMNH LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...INDICATING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THAT IS THE END OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM THAT PARTICULAR MODEL. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW PCPN CHANCES.

KREIN

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAFS WAS TO REMOVE THE VCTS
MENTION...AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM AT
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY AND DURATION OF IT
IS TO LOW TO CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO KRFD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 21-22 UTC. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TIMING...WITH JUST LEAVE A VCSH IN THE
FORECAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER MVFR CIGS AROUND...OR JUST BELOW 1,000 FT AGL
ARE LIKELY AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

KJB

.MARINE...
250 AM CDT

HEADLINES...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The air mass has recovered in the wake of the morning storms. The
combination of increasing moisture and heating along with
overspreading steeper mid level lapse rates has produced SBCAPE
from 1500-2000+ j/kg south of the warm front. The warm front was
drapped from the surface low in southeast NE through northeast MO
and into south central IL. Satellite imagery shows a rather
extensive cu field and right now we sit and wait. A couple of
scenarios are possible from the current obs and CAMs. One is that
soley the broken line of storms in northeast KS/northwest MO will
continue to develop southward some and thing swing northeast
across portions of northern MO as the short wave trof located
across eastern KS rotates northeast this evening. Another scenario
is a combination of the aforementioned evolution, and additionally
scattered more discrete storms will form from central thru
northeast MO between 21-23z as large scale ascent associated with
the short wave overspreads the area. Primary zone will again be
the north of I-70 with more isolated development further south.
Threats are primarily large hail and some tornado potential across
northeast MO where surface winds are locally backed enhancing the
low level shear. Believe all of the activity should have exited
the area by 06-07z as the upper low/trof lifts northeast and the
surface cold front advances across the area.

Glass

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Deep westerly flow in the wake of the front will result in good
drying and tranquil weather Thursday with weak high pressure
dominating Thursday night.

Things begin to get busy again Friday into the weekend, and especially
Friday night into Saturday night. There are model differences with
the position and speed of the upper low/trof and associated surface
system. At this time the GFS looks too far south and have more
closely followed the ECMWF and NAM.

The approach of the next deep upstream upper trof and retreating
high pressure will allow for an initial short wave to impact the
area as early as late Friday afternoon at which time low level
moisture return will begin to get underway. I have some low pops
from central into southeast MO. This scenario is most likely to
really get underway on Friday night with widespread showers and
thunderstorms in response to the southerly LLJ and large scale
ascent with the short wave. The thunderstorm threat will remain
high Saturday into Saturday night with the advancing upper trof
and attendant cold front moving across the region. A broad,
unstable and significantly sheared warm sector in advance of the
front would suggest severe weather potential as well.

Glass

.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

North-south oriented isolated-scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms is expected to move east of KUIN and metro terminals
by 1900 UTC. Another round of at least scattered thunderstorms is
expected to develop by late afternoon. Development may be east of
KCOU but is expected to be west of the metro terminals as well as
KUIN. Atmosphere should destabilize enough to cause some storms to
be strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible with
stronger thunderstorms in addition to heavy rain/IFR visbys. By
mid- late evening...thunderstorms are expected to move off to the
east of the terminals with VFR conditions expected into Thursday
afternoon. Only exception could be at KUIN as some high-end MVFR
ceilings are possible by mid morning on Thursday. Winds will
initially be southeast early this afternoon before turning out of
the west/southwest behind the frontal passage later on tonight.

Specifics for KSTL:

Isolated-scattered showers/weak storms expected to quickly move
to the east of the terminal early this afternoon. Partially
clearing sky to the west will advect in within the next 1-2 hours
and help destabilize the atmosphere. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the terminal by mid afternoon
with storms possibly affecting the terminal between late afternoon
and early evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain/IFR
visbys. Threat of storms should exit by mid-late evening...with
VFR conditions in its wake. Winds will turn from the southeast
early this afternoon to the west/southwest behind a frontal
boundary late tonight/early Thursday morning.

Gosselin

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Will be monitoring the potential for isolated storm development
into early this evening across central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks a cold front pushes east across the region. A few storms
could brush by central Missouri in closer proximity to the upper
low. Expect coverage of any convective development to be rather
sparse with only a limited risk for severe.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Thursday for a
tranquil spring weather day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

The active weather will return Friday into the weekend as the next
upper low comes out of the southern Rockies. Expect increasing
warm air and moisture advection to support an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Expect
this activity to be elevated in nature. With limited instability
expect storms Friday to remain below severe limits. The activity
will continue into Saturday as the upper level trough moves into
the Plains. Will have to monitor how far north the warm sector
progresses for the potential of more surface based storms.

The showers will diminish Sunday as this system moves into the
Ohio River Valley. Looks like we will get another break in the
weather on Monday before more active weather returns again.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.

Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height`s with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.

Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it`s going to be cooler is really just saying it`s going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today`s trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.

And, because it`s Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.

Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.

Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.

Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts. Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.

By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster