Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/19/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
251 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND
IS FCST TO RETROGRADE INTO NWRN CO/SWRN WY OVERNIGHT. CROSS-
SECTIONS STILL SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
DENVER TO THE WY BORDER. IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL. BY LATE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
NNW HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE UP TO 700 MB. THUS EXPECT QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.
ON MON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NWRN
CO/SWRN WY. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER BY LATE AFTN. WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE IN THE MTNS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY EARLY AFTN. BY LATE AFTN WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF
SHSN IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER
THE PLAINS WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS
READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NERN CO WITH A FEW LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS WHERE VERY LITTLE SNOW OCCURRED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER CIRCULATION ANYWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CENTER IS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IT STAYS
THERE ALL TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
...THEN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW SOME UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN AFTER THAT CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SURGE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PROGGED WEDNESDAY...THEN DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT
QUITE A BIT...JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA FOR THE LATE DAY PERIODS MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL MINOR VALUES. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LATE
DAY TUESDAY...MORE SO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE QPF
FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...THE
BEST SHOT...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVEN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH 30-60%S MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EAST
CWA. THEN LATE DAY TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
20-50% POPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EAST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS COME UP 2-4 C MORE FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TIMING IS STILL
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER WAY NORTH OVER MONTANA...WHILE THE GFS
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME
UPPER RIDGING ON THE ECMWF BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ON
THE GFS. POOR AGREEMENT STILL WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING WITH HIGH POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
SNOW THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS ENDED. CEILINGS MAY STAY AROUND 1500
FEET IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW DENSE FOG AFFECTING
DIA POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 06Z. THUS WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS IN
THE 00Z TAF. ON MON IF FOG DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
15Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN COLORADO MTNS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON MONDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES WITH THE LOW
CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE ENERGY AND MOISTURE OVERHEAD. TERMINAL
FORECASTS WILL START OUT THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST IN
VFR CATEGORIES AS WE WAIT FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO GET SHOWERS
GOING AGAIN. AGAIN THE MOUNTAIN FORECAST SITES OF KASE AND KTEX
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS FROM CIGS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND X-SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME LOWER CLOUDS
SETTLING IN BY TOMORROW MORNING OVER MANY AREAS AND ILS BREAK
POINTS WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE..BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JEFF/JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN COLORADO MTNS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON MONDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JEFF/JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
852 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSES PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1118 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PASSES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PHASING PAC AND POLAR JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A TROUGH DIGGING FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH BEST FORCING TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEP NW
FLOW...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN CT.
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK LATE THIS EVE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
FOR TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
ALSO...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
INDICATING A LINE OF SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH FROM N TO S FROM THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NYC EWD...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.
CAA IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH LOW-LEVELS BECOMING
MIXED IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD TONIGHT GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT MID 50 IN NYC/NJ
METRO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS AND GRADUAL CAA IN ITS WAKE AS
LOW STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE NE.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...LAGGING CAA...AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INTERIOR...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL PLAIN.
HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL TDS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON DEEP MIXING OF
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH
FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE TOWARDS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. CAA
ON GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED FOR FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
RELAXING LATE. LOWS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA...CAN EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. PATCHY
FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 40S IN/AROUND NYC..AND IN THE LOW 40S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 60S...AND THEN HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS THE
QUICKEST TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
IT DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND DOES NOT CLEAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 06Z
THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING 30 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW TO N GUSTS 20-25KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS OVERNIGHT. BUOY 44025 HAS BEEN RANGING BETWEEN
4.5 AND 4.9 FT THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A DECREASING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE ELY SWELL DIMINISHES. OTHER OCEAN BUOYS
ARE ALREADY DOWN TO 4 FT.
NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND MARGINAL
SEAS BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND DEPARTING
LOW PRES NEAR 40N/60W. GRADIENT SLACKENS BY AFTERNOON...AND
TRANQUIL CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY
DRY FUELS...MIN RH 25-35 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
DRY CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE
DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 MPH...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO
COASTAL SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN UP TO 1/4" QPF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
925 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
925 PM UPDATE...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. WHILE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
RATHER LIMITED...THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/FRONTOGENESIS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A BE BRIEF BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 AND 10 AM TUE. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST LONG
AT A GIVEN LOCATION WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM UPDATE FOR TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTH COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT CUMULUS CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT STILL PEAKS OF SUN EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN MA COAST TO RISE MUCH PAST 50.
ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS SHOWING
100 TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE
IS A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP IS LOW. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SOME
ACTIVITY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...GIVEN COLD TEMPS
ALOFT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE
MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. N/NW
BREEZE WILL KEEP LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT
WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 30S TO NEAR 40...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE TEMPS MAY GET A BIT LOWER WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFO ABOUT THE UPCOMING STARTING DATE FOR THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING
PROGRAM.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CROSSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WILL HAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY...
MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CROSSING THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...POTENTIALLY THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO JUST OVER AN INCH. GFS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX JUST BELOW 0...TT LOW 50S. SO
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. POSSIBILITY FOR A SECOND WEAKER FRONT
TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER ON
IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY QPF. MOST OF THIS 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING.
VFR TO START...WITH SOME MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KORE-KORH-KPYM BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EAST COASTAL MA AND POSSIBLY RI WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z. CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM W TO E DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE/E TO THE N TONIGHT...THEN NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS EARLY.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS W/MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS EARLY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERSISTENT EAST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET...UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE...
WEDNESDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BUILD SEAS WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT HEIGHTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS DURING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY. RH VALUES NOT AS LOW ON TUESDAY...EVEN
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. MIN RH VALUES 25-40 PERCENT EXPECTED...
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS...WE WILL
BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WORCESTER COUNTY WEST IN
MA...ALL OF NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST RI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY...REACHING THE 60S AND
AROUND 70 INLAND. WARMING AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LOW RH
VALUES. CONTINUE TO EXPECT INTERIOR MIN RH OF 20-25 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY...AND 25-30 PCT THURSDAY. COASTAL VALUES WILL BE 30-45 PCT
EACH DAY...EXCEPT HIGHER CAPE/ISLANDS. THE DEVELOPING WARMTH AND
DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FRIDAY...
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WARM...MIN RH MAINLY 50-
60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM STARTS APRIL 21 FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...EAST
COASTAL MA INCLUSIVE OF ALL OF SOUTHEAST MA...AND NORTHERN CT
FROM HARTFORD COUNTY EAST. FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NWS TAUNTON
COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM BEGINS IN
EARLY MAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK/BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER BACK IN VIA GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. IT WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD...FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL SARATOGA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CO...WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WARM WEST WIND
PERSISTS...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70-75 RANGE IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS FRONT IS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION VIA A NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN HERE WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AT ALL AS THE LATEST 4KM BTV WRF HAS BACKED
OFF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HRRR HAS A
LITTLE MORE BUT NOT MUCH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS AS IF THERE ONLY BE SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF
ANY AT ALL.
IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH...WITH
SPEEDS OF 5-15 MPH...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
SPRINKLE OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT
WILL DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE BREEZE
COULD GUST TO 30 MPH IN THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS...HIGHER
TERRAIN....MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS H850 TEMPS COOL TO ABOUT -
2C. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING VALLEYS LOOK TO CRACK THE 60S...50S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND SLACKENING
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TO THE 30S AT NIGHT. THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...60 TO 65
VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...STILL IN PLACE FROM EARLIER...BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS FOR THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW TO
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN POLAR JET FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FOR
HIGHER POPS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND +10C.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WE RETURN H850 TEMPS
BELOW 0C. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE THOSE VALLEY TEMPERATURES
FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE 50S WITH 40S FOR THE
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH
20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT
TO MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE REGION OF
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SUPPORTS THE GFS BUT DELAYED ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY AVERAGE JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE.
THEN...AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/TUE. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED AT KPOU. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR DESPITE THESE SHOWERS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...CIGS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KGFL
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z-14Z/TUE...WITH AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AT KALB/KPSF. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE AS THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AT
WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER
12Z/TUE AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING
DEEPENS...WITH WINDS BACKING SLIGHTLY INTO THE N TO NW...AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KT AND GUSTS OF 20-28 KT BY LATE TUE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 100 PM TO 600 PM EDT ON
TUESDAY...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OVER FIVE DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BRING A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL TO REALLY ANY OUR REGION. THERE MIGHT BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 10-15
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR MAIN FIRE WEATHER USERS...WE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AGAIN FOR ALL AREAS...INCLUDING ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE WINDS WILL RELAX BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND SHOULD LIGHTER...FROM THE NORTHWEST...5-15 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS...
15-25 PERCENT.
BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERN BREEZE 5-15 MPH. AT THIS POINT...AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY...DROPPING TO THE 30S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
741 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH LIGHT
RAIN FOR SOME AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS WITH RAP
GUIDANCE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. BOSTON AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S...AND RAP GUIDANCE FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING REFLECTS THIS WELL. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
4 PM DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH WITH IT. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE TENTH INCH OF RAINFALL IN
GENERAL. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S...WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS GRADUALLY END DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
THE COAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR TO SEE CLEARING. MAX
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREE LOWER THAN TODAY. IT WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUNSHINE CAN GET TO WORK ON HEATING THE
LOWER LEVELS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE
MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. N/NW
BREEZE WILL KEEP LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT
WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 30S TO NEAR 40...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE TEMPS MAY GET A BIT LOWER WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFO ABOUT THE UPCOMING STARTING DATE FOR THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING
PROGRAM.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CROSSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WILL HAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY...
MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CROSSING THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...POTENTIALLY THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO JUST OVER AN INCH. GFS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX JUST BELOW 0...TT LOW 50S. SO
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. POSSIBILITY FOR A SECOND WEAKER FRONT
TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER ON
IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY QPF. MOST OF THIS 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING.
VFR TO START...WITH SOME MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KORE-KORH-KPYM BETWEEN 03Z AND
12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY...WITHTH
EEXCEPTION OF EAST COASTAL MA AND POSSIBLY RI WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z. CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM W TO E DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SE/E TO THE N TONIGHT...THEN NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KNOTS EARLY.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS W/MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS EARLY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERSISTENT EAST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET...UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE...
WEDNESDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BUILD SEAS WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT HEIGHTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS DURING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY. RH VALUES NOT AS LOW ON TUESDAY...EVEN
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. MIN RH VALUES 25-40 PERCENT EXPECTED...
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS...WE WILL
BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WORCESTER COUNTY WEST IN
MA...ALL OF NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST RI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY...REACHING THE 60S AND
AROUND 70 INLAND. WARMING AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LOW RH
VALUES. CONTINUE TO EXPECT INTERIOR MIN RH OF 20-25 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY...AND 25-30 PCT THURSDAY. COASTAL VALUES WILL BE 30-45 PCT
EACH DAY...EXCEPT HIGHER CAPE/ISLANDS. THE DEVELOPING WARMTH AND
DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FRIDAY...
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WARM...MIN RH MAINLY 50-
60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM STARTS APRIL 21 FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...EAST
COASTAL MA INCLUSIVE OF ALL OF SOUTHEAST MA...AND NORTHERN CT
FROM HARTFORD COUNTY EAST. FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NWS TAUNTON
COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM BEGINS IN
EARLY MAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. AFTER A BRIEF OVERNIGHT LULL...WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK BACK
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS COMMON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016/
UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN THE GENERAL FORM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH
AMERICA THIS EVENING. A DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW RIDGES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH
UP INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DIVING BACK SOUTH INTO THE OTHER
CLOSED LOW FORMING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WHILE FLOODING RAINS ARE A CONCERN ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...NO SUCH CONCERNS CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCT SHOWERS THAT DOTTED THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARE BEGINNING TO FADE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS
SIMPLY TOO STRONG TODAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LEE COUNTY TO PREVENT
ANY KIND OF A SEA-BREEZE FROM FORMING...AND THIS KEPT THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW TO A MINIMUM.
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOCAL FORCING KEPT THE CONVECTION IN
CONTROL TODAY. FLOW WAS A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
EVERGLADES...WHERE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN FOR OUR ZONES THIS EVENING.
TODAY (SATURDAY) WAS THE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
IN OUR FORECAST...AS WE ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
DURING SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT (ALBEIT) GUSTY MID- APRIL DAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
ALSO BE ADVECTING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE
WEEKEND.
MORE DRY WEATHER...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...AND LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SATURDAY NIGHT EVERYONE!
MARINE... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE FLOW
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...YET ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSH EASTERLY WINDS BACK UP INTO AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 62 82 62 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 80 60 81 59 / 10 0 10 0
SRQ 83 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 80 55 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 81 65 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18/FLEMING
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1027 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Surge of moisture advancing eastward along a trough/frontal
boundary late this evening, with a jump in dew points of about
10-15 degrees extending from near Galesburg to Winchester. LAPS
sounding from Quincy showing the column significantly moistening
over the last couple hours, while humidity levels just east of
this boundary still only about 40-50% at this late hour. Have
tweaked the hourly PoP grids to limit the evening slight chances
from about Peoria-Jacksonville, and overnight have removed the
PoP`s east of a Bloomington-Taylorville line. Have also removed
thunder chances, with no lightning activity being observed to our
west and little in the way of MUCAPE available. Dew point grids
were also significantly adjusted to reflect the timing of this
boundary, primarily west of I-55.
UPDATE Issued at 824 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Area of rain is starting to cross into far west central Illinois
this hour, but ceilings are above 9,000 feet there so amounts are
fairly light initially. Evening soundings from our office and
Davenport IA show quite a bit of dry air below 20,000 feet that
will need to be overcome, so have made some adjustments to the PoP
trends and basically limited the 30% or higher to along and west
of the Illinois River valley this evening, before increasing them
after midnight. Latest HRRR guidance bring more of the showers
into the area after midnight, and mainly west of I-55. Also made
some adjustments to the thunder chances and limited them to after
midnight, across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The upper level ridge will finally start to break down across the
central portion of the country as the broad upper low over the
Rockies starts to make its way east towards the Mississippi Valley
later tonight. The leading band of showers well out ahead of the
upper low will track east and into parts of west central Illinois
late tonight and crawl its way east into parts of central and
east central Illinois on Tuesday. With the increase in cloud cover
tonight and a light southerly flow, temperatures will not be as cool
as the past few mornings with early morning lows expected to range
from the lower 50s far north to the upper 50s over the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The initial band of showers will continue to edge east across
our area on Tuesday. In addition, a weak frontal boundary will
slip south through our northern counties during the day which may
help to develop additional showers and isolated storms during the
afternoon, but instability parameters, mid level lapse rates and
shear look weak at this time. Highest POPs will remain over the
west Tuesday night but as shortwave energy rotates northeast into
our area from the upper low on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
POPs will increase to likely over a large part of the forecast
area. As the weakening upper level shortwave shifts across the
area Thursday, the better rain chances shift into our east. The
actual upper trof axis takes until late Thursday night or early
Friday morning to shift east of the state, as a result, will
continue to carry at least low chance POPs during this time frame.
Temperatures will cool a bit from what we have been seeing the
past several days due to the cloud cover and periodic shower
activity, but still average above normal. We may see another 80
degrees over far southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon as that
part of the forecast area will not see much if any rainfall and
the cloud cover will not be as thick. After that, temperatures
drop back into the mid 60s to low 70s for the remainder of the
week.
With the upper level trof off to our east on Friday, we should see a
period of pleasant weather again on Friday and Saturday as upper
level ridging builds back into the Midwest in response to another
trof moving into the Rockies. After Saturday night or early Sunday,
confidence drops off as models show some significant spread,
especially with the placement of the surface boundary across the
Midwest into early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase to our north on Saturday night and gradually work
their way south into next week as the boundary settles south
across our area, with a rather active looking pattern setting up,
at least into the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Main issue for this TAF set is timing of incoming showers as well
as MVFR ceilings. KPIA/KSPI are the primary areas of concern for
this, with ceilings lowering east during the day Tuesday but
forecast soundings keep ceilings elevated above VFR level until
late in the afternoon. A large area of showers is currently
moving through the northeast quarter of Missouri, but only edging
eastward with the cells moving north. Latest high-resolution model
guidance is edging the showers into west central Illinois this
evening, but waiting until around 08-10Z before reaching
KPIA/KSPI. Lowering ceilings will accompany the showers, and MVFR
conditions likely by about 13-15Z. Some indications among the
models that after about 21Z, conditions will improve, but will
keep the lower ceilings in place for now that far out.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1204 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
215 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON DRY/MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BENEATH STRENGTHENING/RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE WITHIN QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS COMBINING WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND PLENTY OF MID-APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL SITES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO
HAVING REACHED 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART...
AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL
MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WILL EASILY SUPPORT
LAKE BREEZES AS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER HOWEVER
WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT CLOUDS TO A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER AND THUS
MAY BE LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GFS NOTED AS SLOWER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WRF/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DEPICT THE FRONT
BACK-DOORING AS IT MELDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
50S/60S BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AS WINDS SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OFF THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
219 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
AROUND MIDWEEK ON...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AND
COOLER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SPILLING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY BEHIND A HYBRID LAKE BREEZE/SYNOPTIC
FRONT MONDAY EVENING...AND FOR LOW CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BROUGHT US THIS STRETCH OF QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WITH AT
LEAST BRIEF INDUCED RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
A NEARLY IDENTICAL PRESSURE REGIME AS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN A HIGH
AMOUNT OF INLAND WARMING...A SIMILAR LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AS
TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL BRING AN AFTERNOON PERIOD OF
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-13 KT WINDS AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. ON MONDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FRESH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Clear skies and lighter southeast winds will continue the
remainder of the night. New NAM-WRF model and HRRR both show these
type of conditions continuing remainder of the night. Current
forecast has good handle on this, so no update planned at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Some high-based cumulus have formed this afternoon across the
northeastern half of the state, helping to give a bit of variety to
this otherwise quiet weather pattern. Temperatures are getting very
close to 80 degrees from about Jacksonville-Danville northward,
while mid 70s prevail to the south.
Clouds should be fading out by 6-7 pm, with another night of clear
skies. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Pleasant weather conditions will continue into Monday evening before
we see a very slow transition from the blocking pattern over the east
central U.S. to a more progressive flow pattern by the end of the
upcoming work week. This should bring increasing rain chances,
especially as the once powerful upper low, currently over the
southern Rockies, edges east northeast and weakens with time next
week. Timing of what is left of that feature into our area looks
be late Wednesday through Thursday night, resulting in our best
shower and thunderstorm chances during that time frame.
Until then, a northern stream shortwave and weak frontal boundary
will slip southeast into the lower Great Lakes late Monday into
Tuesday dragging a cool front south across our area, and at the same
time, several weak vort lobes are forecast to rotate northeast from
the nearly stationary upper low over the south central Plains. As a
result, precip chances will start to increase across the west Monday
night into Tuesday but the forcing is quite weak and mid level lapse
rates not very impressive, so low chance POPs will hold, again
mainly for the western half of the forecast area. We should see a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorms over the area,
especially Wed night through Thursday evening as the trof shifts
across the forecast area.
Temperatures will be pleasantly warm again Sunday into Monday with
most areas bumped up a few degrees from guidance. Afternoon readings
will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s both days. The weak cool
front will slip across the area late Monday into Tuesday bringing
slightly cooler weather to the area, with most of our area holding
in the 70s. We should see some slight variations in temperatures for
the remainder of the week, but overall, it appears no significant
cool downs are foreseen with temperatures averaging above normal
as we transition into a more typical late Spring pattern next
weekend and beyond with troffing over the western U.S. and low
amplitude ridging over the center of the nation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Little
Clear skies will prevail overnight and through tomorrow. Winds
will be southeast through the period with light wind speeds
overnight, increasing to 10kts tomorrow, then decreasing again
after 00z..
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
A shortwave continues to lift through northeast KS per the 20Z water
vapor imagery. Meanwhile the cut off upper low remains over
northwest CO. Surface obs indicate the trough axis is just to the
east of the forecast area with some drier and cooler air advecting
in from the northwest.
Subsidence from the shortwave is expected to keep the weather dry
over the forecast area for tonight. The main concern is whether some
fog develops. This is highly dependent on whether skies clear out
and the boundary layer radiates outs. Latest visible satellite
continues to show expansive stratocu deck across western KS and the
18Z RAP has trended towards keeping a stratus deck over the forecast
area through the night. Since the HRRR/RAP/SREF show visibilities
remaining at 5 miles or better, will keep the mention of patchy fog
across north central KS inserted by the prev shift since some breaks
in the clouds are possible, but will not expand it and any further.
Later shifts will need to watch the cloud trends for clearing. Then
the potential for fog ,even dense fog, would increase. Have not made
many changes to the low temp forecast as models continue to support
readings from the mid 40s across north central KS to the lower 50s
in east central KS as a result of some weak cold air advection.
For Tuesday, models show the potential for another shortwave to
round the bottom of the cut off low and lift north. As it does,
there is some modest moisture return as 850 winds veer around more
to the southeast. So with the prospects for increasing large scale
forcing, chances for precip increase through the afternoon from
south to north. Models show very modest instability developing given
mid level lapse rates remaining around 6 C/km. The GFS is most
aggressive in developing some instability across east central KS
tomorrow afternoon, but it also tries to break out the sun and heat
things up a little more. So while some thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, think rain showers are most likely. Models do not show any warm
air advection and feel like clouds are going to be hard to scour
out. With this in mind, have afternoon highs in the mid and upper
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Models are trending to a stronger wave rotating around the upper low
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with good forcing aloft interacting
with increasing moisture for another likely moderate, fairly
widespread rain event. It again appears to occur in the late Tuesday
night to Wednesday morning hours but a lack of consistent training
and instability still weak at best should keep amounts from being
troublesome. May have some clearing in the afternoon for temps to
push into the middle to upper 60s but this could be a challenge
depending on precip and temp timing. Not expecting much chance for
fog development WEdnesday night with northwest winds increasing
behind a weak surface trough and some high cloud remaining. The
northwest winds will not be able to bring in much air in this
stagnant pattern and warmer temps are anticipated for Thursday. Will
need to maintain some small pops for most areas through early
Thursday with the mean upper trough still upstream.
Longer range periods continue to show upper ridging in control of
the central CONUS into at least Saturday, but models become
increasingly into disagreement in handling of energy along nearly
the Pacific coast of much of North America. The 12Z ECMWF weakens
much of this energy, allowing for at least weak ridging aloft to
persist, allowing a front to sink south through the Northern Plains,
while the 12Z GFS and a few of its ensembles brings a shortwave on
east through the Southern Rockies over the weekend with a more
obviously wet and stormy scenario for late Sunday into Monday. With
many other GFS ensembles differing significantly, have kept precip
chances somewhat reduced compared to the GFS. Highs still look to
rise toward 80 for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Mainly MVFR ceilings for the next several hours. Although there
may be brief periods of IFR ceilings as well. Clouds have
scattered out across south central KS and that clearing may move
into the taf sites. If so there could be some fog especially at
MHK. Some of the guidance is suggesting MVFR ceilings at TOP/FOE
through most of the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME CHANCES OF -SHRA AND SOME IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS AT
CMX AND SAW MONDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...AFFECTING CMX AFTER 18/06Z WITH MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IWD AND
SAW TIL NEAR OF JUST AFTER 12Z/MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW A COLD FROPA ON SUN NIGHT...AFFECTING CMX AFTER 18/06Z WITH
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
IWD AND SAW TIL NEAR OF JUST AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLDS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW A COLD FROPA ON SUN
NGT...BUT THESE LOWER CIGS WL NOT IMPACT THE SITES UNTIL AFTER
18/06Z EVEN AT CMX...WHERE THE FROPA WL OCCUR EARLIEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
AT 19Z...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
40S WITH 50 REPORTED IN OGA AND IML.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
A BREAK IN MENTION OF SHOWERS TONIGHT DESPITE UPPER LOW CENTERED
FROM COLORADO INTO SCTRL WY. SKIES WILL ACTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT. LOWS REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST FROM THE LOWER 30S
WEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER 09Z.
AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH SERN CO/SWRN KS LATE TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE. THIS WILL BRING 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS SWRN NEBR
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LIMITED TO 55-57
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE EARLIER. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES 100-300 J/KG
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN
PNHDLE AND SWRN NEBR IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE LIGHT RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE
THE LOW IS OVERHEAD...COLD TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE
TYPE AND SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AND NOT ADD MORE
THAN A QUARTER OF INCH TO THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE STORM TOTALS.
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT BAY...WITH MORE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE...WHICH
AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A NICE
WARM UP WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE 4
CORNERS REGION CAUSING THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN WITH A CHANCE FOR
WET WEATHER TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WITH THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
VFR MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME AT KLBF. THE RAP SUGGESTS NO CLEARING
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST AT
THAT SITE.
MVFR WILL LAST SEVERAL HOURS AT KVTN AS A RESULT OF WRAP AROUND.
IT IS BELIEVED THE WRAP AROUND WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA TUESDAY
AROUND NOON.
SOME MODELS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING AT KLBF BY MORNING. THERE IS NO
SOLID CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY MORE RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB TUESDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST AND NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
AREA RIVER GAGES HAVE SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT RESPONSES TO 3 TO 4 INCH
RAIN TOTALS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LEWELLEN AND THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER GAGES APPROACHED ACTION STAGE BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN. GAGES
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AT JULESBURG
AND ROSCOE AND ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AT PAXTON AND NORTH
PLATTE. SO WHILE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...IT IS
LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS AND WHEN SNOW MELT FROM
COLORADO BEGINS THAT RIVER LEVELS COULD RISE MORE THAN RECENTLY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY
83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH
POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT
FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY
REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH
06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...
MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS
WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML
AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND
CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT
DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN
THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND
LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL
ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE
SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS
ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS
WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE
700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY
CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL
AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED
IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR
LIQUID.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND
TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
AROUND 80.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4
CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND
MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OFF AND
ON RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FROM KAIA TO KLBF AND
TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADY RAIN
FROM KBBW TO KANW AND POINTS EAST. TEMPORARY VISBY DROPS ARE ALSO
LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR MIST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED
BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY
SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED
CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
LARGE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM SD TO TX.
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE COMPONENT REMAINS ACROSS SRN KS INTO TX...AND
PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.
INTERESTINGLY H5 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MOST OF THE WEST INDICATING
HEIGHT RISES INDICATING A GENERAL FILLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATE MADE TO THE FCST TO REDUCE PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SWRN
PORTION OF NEB THIS MORNING. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS DID A GOOD
JOB EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THIS WOULD EVOLVE AS IT HAS.
LATEST EXP HRRR DELAYS SHRA REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SHRA AGAIN AROUND
18Z. DID NOT CUT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON YET. OTHERWISE REST OF THE
FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO RETROGRADE BACK NWWD THROUGH THE
DAY AS MAIN PV ANOMALY PULLS NWD. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS
BIFURCATED WITH ONE AREA MOVING NWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO
AND WY INTO SERN MT BY 00Z MON. SECOND AREA ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN
TX. THIS SRN MOST AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SERVES TO INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS INTO TX WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT SHOULD AGAIN TAKE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. STILL STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEEP SRLY
FLOW KEEPS FEEDING THIS DEVELOPMENT BACK NWWD INTO THE LOW WHERE ON
THE NWRN SIDE A MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. OVER SWRN NEB....MODELS
/INCLUDING AVAILABLE CAMS/ SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PRECIP INITIALLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER INCREASING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING THETA-E PROFILE IN A
NARROW ZONE AND THEREFORE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP GRADIENT MENTIONED EARLIER. END RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIP CHANCE THOUGH PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS
IN SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRAG EWD.
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE TEMPS FOR SNOW AGAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FURTHER
EAST THAN SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
MONDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT DOES APPEAR
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT. SHOULD SEE SOME FURTHER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR 40
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AIR ALOFT IS QUITE COLD /H5 NEAR -25C/ AND
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FRIDAY AND NEARING 80 BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OFF AND
ON RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FROM KAIA TO KLBF AND
TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADY RAIN
FROM KBBW TO KANW AND POINTS EAST. TEMPORARY VISBY DROPS ARE ALSO
LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR MIST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RIVER RISES REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EWD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THINK HIGHER RAIN TOTALS WILL MOVE ALONG WITH
THIS BAND. STILL...REDEVLOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND NOT AS PERSISTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. FRENCHMAN AND STINKING WATER CREEKS IN SWRN
NEB REMAIN A CONCERN THOUGH CURRENT RISES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MEDICINE CREEK AND RED WILLOW CREEKS IN HAYES AND FRONTIER
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING A RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. AS FOR THE PLATTE...CURRENT
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE MBRFC OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH
PLATTE LOOKS ON TRACK AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. OBVIOUSLY FOR ANY OF THESE CREEKS AND RIVERS ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT FCSTS COULD CHANGE HOW THEY RESPOND.&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
LARGE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM SD TO TX.
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE COMPONENT REMAINS ACROSS SRN KS INTO TX...AND
PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.
INTERESTINGLY H5 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MOST OF THE WEST INDICATING
HEIGHT RISES INDICATING A GENERAL FILLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATE MADE TO THE FCST TO REDUCE PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SWRN
PORTION OF NEB THIS MORNING. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS DID A GOOD
JOB EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THIS WOULD EVOLVE AS IT HAS.
LATEST EXP HRRR DELAYS SHRA REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SHRA AGAIN AROUND
18Z. DID NOT CUT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON YET. OTHERWISE REST OF THE
FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO RETROGRADE BACK NWWD THROUGH THE
DAY AS MAIN PV ANOMALY PULLS NWD. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS
BIFURCATED WITH ONE AREA MOVING NWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO
AND WY INTO SERN MT BY 00Z MON. SECOND AREA ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN
TX. THIS SRN MOST AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SERVES TO INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS INTO TX WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT SHOULD AGAIN TAKE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. STILL STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEEP SRLY
FLOW KEEPS FEEDING THIS DEVELOPMENT BACK NWWD INTO THE LOW WHERE ON
THE NWRN SIDE A MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. OVER SWRN NEB....MODELS
/INCLUDING AVAILABLE CAMS/ SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PRECIP INITIALLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER INCREASING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING THETA-E PROFILE IN A
NARROW ZONE AND THEREFORE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP GRADIENT MENTIONED EARLIER. END RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIP CHANCE THOUGH PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS
IN SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRAG EWD.
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE TEMPS FOR SNOW AGAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FURTHER
EAST THAN SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
MONDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT DOES APPEAR
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT. SHOULD SEE SOME FURTHER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR 40
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AIR ALOFT IS QUITE COLD /H5 NEAR -25C/ AND
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FRIDAY AND NEARING 80 BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING. IN
ADDITION...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHRA TO
AT TIMES MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS FROM ALOFT. THINK IN GENERAL
HOWEVER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS GUSTY AND WEAKER
SINCE THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE WE GET TO
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CATEGORY SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN SO MUCH VARIANCE THIS MORNING. GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHRA AND TSRA SWD INTO TX.
AS MENTIONED PRECIP HAS DECAYED ACROSS THE SW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN YDAY
BUT LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SIMILARLY LOCATED FROM TX TO SD
BY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG MID LEVEL FGEN BAND. IN
ADDITION...PW VALUES WERE ABOVE THE DAILY MAX IN KLBF THIS
MORNING SO AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN SHOULD FALL WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. MAX LOCATION OF THIS THOUGH WOULD BE EAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RIVER RISES REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EWD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THINK HIGHER RAIN TOTALS WILL MOVE ALONG WITH
THIS BAND. STILL...REDEVLOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND NOT AS PERSISTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. FRENCHMAN AND STINKING WATER CREEKS IN SWRN
NEB REMAIN A CONCERN THOUGH CURRENT RISES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MEDICINE CREEK AND RED WILLOW CREEKS IN HAYES AND FRONTIER
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING A RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. AS FOR THE PLATTE...CURRENT
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE MBRFC OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH
PLATTE LOOKS ON TRACK AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. OBVIOUSLY FOR ANY OF THESE CREEKS AND RIVERS ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT FCSTS COULD CHANGE HOW THEY RESPOND.&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A
SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW
AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND
40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST
AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA
VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED
IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE
RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND
700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW
SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO
MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A
DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN
NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY
AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO
STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT
BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF
THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS.
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND
DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW
FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM
UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S
BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN RETURNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
25KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY
DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES
LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND
EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS
ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL
BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN
A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE
CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
404 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE BREEZE IS PROBABLY BEST
HANDLED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH
CONTINUES TO DROP THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGING WILL PROMOTE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM AND A MORE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE
LAKES...WITH THE TYPICAL SW FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN BUFFALO/WATERTOWN...WITH A
WEAKER LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SHARPEN THE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BE STRONGEST AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WEAKENING WITH TIME BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND FADING
CLOSE TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE
GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A
TENTH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 30S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50SW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITHIN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK
BROKEN...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW THAT HAD SETUP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE
WEAKENING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF OPENING UP THE WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUT
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN RE-DEVELOP MID-DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...WITH
WINDS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES THROUGH
MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH
TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER...WITH
TODAYS STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN RISING RH
VALUES. GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS OF A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
226 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE BREEZE IS PROBABLY BEST
HANDLED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH
CONTINUES TO DROP THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGING WILL PROMOTE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM AND A MORE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE
LAKES...WITH THE TYPICAL SW FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN BUFFALO/WATERTOWN...WITH A
WEAKER LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SHARPEN THE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BE STRONGEST AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WEAKENING WITH TIME BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND FADING
CLOSE TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE
GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A
TENTH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 30S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50SW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITHIN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PULL
BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN RE-DEVELOP MID-DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...WITH
WINDS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES THROUGH
MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH
TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER...WITH
TODAYS STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN RISING RH
VALUES. GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS OF A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
RECENT RAP SIMULATIONS /ESPECIALLY ITS 01 UTC RUN/ AND THE 00 UTC
NAM ARE PARTICULARLY IN SYNC WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS...SO WE
RELIED ON THEM TO REFINE HOURLY POPS THROUGH 15 UTC. THIS ONCE
AGAIN MEANT DELAYING THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAINFALL AND HENCE A
REDUCTION IN OVERALL POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SUCH THAT
THEY MAXIMIZE ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT AT MINOT TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ND AT 02 UTC...AND PER RAP AND NAM OMEGA FIELDS
SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK THROUGH ABOUT 09 UTC...AFTER WHICH BOTH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION /AND FORCING ON
ISENTROPIC SURFACES/ QUICKLY WANES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
RAIN IS FILLING IN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND...AND THE
BETTER-FORCED BATCH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN NORTHERN SD IS ON
TRACK TO EASE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING TOO. THE MAIN CHANGE WE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS
A FASTER EAST TO WEST TRANSLATION THAN A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THUS
POPS FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND RUGBY WERE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED THROUGH 06 UTC. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MONITORING ADVECTION/
UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG ALONG THE COTEAU REGION OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ND...BUT ARE HANDLING IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WEB
GRAPHIC VICE AN ADVISORY UNTIL OR UNLESS IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
IT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WITH BLOCKING RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RAIN COVERAGE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS NEXT
WAVE PRODUCING BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO SHOW ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ONLY PLACE THAT WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT WOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IF ANY SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE FOG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA ALREADY REPORTING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MORE OR LESS WENT WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF THE
COTEAU...SPREADING SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW STARTS A SLOW MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WORKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. RIDGE WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ARE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SOME KEY
FEATURES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AS SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
KEEPS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT AND THE
MOST INTENSE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND...BUT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FOR ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AT
SOME POINT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HRRR GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. OFF TO THE WEST...SOME AREAS OF SNOW
CONTINUE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS HANDLED RATHER WELL SO MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE RAIN HAS MOVED IN AND CONTINUE THE
TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WHILE THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA HAS TRAILED OFF AND SKIES ARE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN NORTH CENTRAL...THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE
IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH WITH INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BE A FOCAL POINT FOR FRONTOGENESIS AND WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
FRONTAL POSITION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO A LARGE AND PERSISTENT H500 LOW OVER COLORADO THAT REMAINS IN
A GOOD POSITION TO BRING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS TEH
SOUTH...WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY WILL SEE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST OM MONDAY BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO TEMPERATURES EITHER WAY AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT SNOW IN THE HWO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS AND AS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES WESTWARD MOST THE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE WITH THE NORTH EITHER DRY OR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO KICK OUT AND MILD AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLES IN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE AN H500 TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACH BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN WHERE MVFR-LOW VFR IS
FORECAST. THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT MAINLY KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND LATER TODAY AT
KMOT. KISN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR KDIK. RAIN WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WEAK FRONTOGENSIS SEEN ON RAP13 ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TEH PERSISTENT WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR
SHOWING UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR
THE NIGHT. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE H500 UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING NEW
PRECIP INTO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
OK. NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIP CENTRAL AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THROUGH MID EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION CENTERED ON NORTH CENTRAL ND DWINDLING AS OF
0245 UTC...AS EXPECTED AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE RAP/HRRR
SIMULATIONS. WE UPDATED HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC WITH
A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THOSE RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SLIGHTLY DELAY THE RAMP-UP IN POPS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD...AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTE THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW AND THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE
ULTIMATE PATH AND STRENGTH OF ANY PV ANOMALIES AND SURGES OF DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
CHALLENGES WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS...THE 00
UTC NAM JUST ARRIVED AND IS WELL IN LINE WITH GOING EXPECTATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KISN WHERE
LOW VFR IS FORECAST. TIMING THE ONSET OF IFR AND LOWER CIGS IS
DIFFICULT SOME AREAS. THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN MAINLY FOR KMOT AND KDIK. RAIN WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
924 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Narrow band of showers continues across parts
of eastern OK...along weak front/inverted surface
trof where modest dewpoint pooling was occurring.
This activity has been slowly diminishing this
evening...and HRRR suggests this trend will continue.
Could see an slight uptick in coverage across southeast
OK and western AR later tonight as low-level strengthens
some across eastern TX.
Have maintained highest pops across our eastern sections
the rest of the night...and will remove mention of
thunder.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 57 70 55 76 / 40 60 40 30
FSM 60 72 61 76 / 60 70 60 40
MLC 57 71 56 75 / 50 60 40 30
BVO 54 69 52 74 / 40 50 40 40
FYV 56 69 56 72 / 60 80 70 40
BYV 56 68 57 74 / 60 80 70 40
MKO 57 70 56 75 / 50 70 50 30
MIO 56 69 54 74 / 40 60 50 30
F10 57 69 55 75 / 50 60 40 30
HHW 61 73 60 76 / 60 70 40 40
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have made slow progress into eastern
Oklahoma this morning with most activity remaining west of highway 75.
Would expect the activity to spread to the east Today as moisture continues
to surge into the region from the south. May see it focus on a weak inverted
trof that is located on the western fringes of the Tulsa Forecast area.
However, the 12z experimental HRRR has the showers and storms spreading to the
Arkansas/Oklahoma border by 00z. Have increased pops across the eastern
portions of the area and have lowered temperatures a degree or so across
eastern Oklahoma.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
706 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AGAIN
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. CIGS WILL RISE BY A LVL AFTER DAYBREAK...IMPROVING
FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING IN
THE LOW LVLS OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...COMPLEX SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. COLD OUTFLOW FROM DYING
CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND...WHICH ONLY THE RAP MODEL
PICKED UP ON IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS HAS BECOME
UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 35-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. STORMS FORMING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE GROWING UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO JIM WELLS
COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. HOW ALL OF THIS AFFECTS THE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY FORMING
TO THE WEST COULD MOVE OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAIN
ORGANIZED BUT IN AN ELEVATED NATURE. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EARLIER TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED MODIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS WILL RESIDE BUT WILL GO ALONG WITH NAM/GFS
SHOWING HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS TO SHOW WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOR TUESDAY.
MARINE (TONIGHT)...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS UNTIL 04Z...THOUGH 07Z FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 12Z FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8
FEET AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS AND MAY GO TO 9-10 FEET BEFORE
SUBSIDING. EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT.
TIDES...TIDES AND BAY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. TIDES ARE 2-2.25 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTED BUT THIS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE. THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF
PREDICT THE EARLY STAGES OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE OMGEGA BLOCK AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY. THUS...A DECREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THE CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. YET...CONCUR WITH
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MAINTAINS COPIOUS MSTR (ORIGINATING OVER
THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER SPORT CIRA TOTAL LPW) OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS WL MAINTAIN SCT CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS PER SREF PROBABILITIES. PER THE
WAVEWATCH...SWELL HEIGHTS/PERIODS MAY MAINTAIN MODERATE/HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN...ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC INCREASES MSTR AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WL ONLY FCST ISOLD CONVECTION SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 82 72 82 71 / 80 50 40 50 30
VICTORIA 69 81 70 82 68 / 70 50 40 50 30
LAREDO 70 88 70 88 70 / 70 30 40 40 30
ALICE 70 85 71 85 69 / 80 40 40 50 30
ROCKPORT 73 81 72 82 71 / 80 60 40 50 30
COTULLA 67 85 69 86 68 / 70 30 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 71 84 71 84 70 / 80 50 40 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 73 81 72 79 72 / 80 50 40 50 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST
LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM
MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS
THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
/AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK.
CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT
KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN
THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.
THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN
SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR
HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS
WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS
HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA
THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.
ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF
0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS
COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE
ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA
LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD
BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND
SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH
NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES. /29
.LONG TERM...
THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE
ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW.
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING
CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY
LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE
MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY
GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM
AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL
BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM
PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY.
SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST.
/05 RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
109 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AROUND AMA IS ASSOC W NARROW BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFTS ASSOC W/ UPR LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REPRESENT BULK OF THE PRECIP IN THE
AREA AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE OK PANHANDLE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS WELL IN MOST RECENT RUNS, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERDUE PRECIP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. DID QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
POPS CENTRAL ZONES AND DECREASE SOME IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...AREA IS
SPLIT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EAST...MVFR IN CENTRAL AND VFR
ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLE. FOR TAFS SITES...ANTICIPATE CIGS WILL
REMAIN OR LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DECIDED TO
INCLUDE MVFR CIGS JUST IN AMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. ONLY
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES HAVE A SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LESS INTENSE. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRIER AIR WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS HELPING TO
FUEL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER PARENT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE PANHANDLES
WILL STAY DRY OR NOT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
AT ANY RATE...RAIN CHANCES WOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH NO MATTER WHAT
MODEL YOU LOOK AT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE
UPPER LOW STARTS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PANHANDLES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 60 38 66 44 71 / 20 10 5 30 20
BEAVER OK 58 41 67 44 68 / 40 20 0 30 40
BOISE CITY OK 53 34 60 42 63 / 10 10 20 50 50
BORGER TX 60 40 68 46 71 / 20 10 5 30 30
BOYS RANCH TX 61 39 66 44 72 / 10 10 10 40 30
CANYON TX 61 38 66 44 72 / 10 10 5 30 20
CLARENDON TX 62 42 68 47 71 / 30 20 5 20 20
DALHART TX 58 36 63 43 69 / 10 10 20 50 40
GUYMON OK 57 38 65 43 66 / 20 10 5 30 40
HEREFORD TX 61 38 66 44 74 / 10 10 10 30 20
LIPSCOMB TX 60 42 68 45 70 / 40 20 0 20 30
PAMPA TX 61 39 68 45 71 / 30 10 5 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 62 44 69 48 72 / 40 20 0 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 64 45 70 49 74 / 40 20 0 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MARINE SECTION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1055 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WI DELLS TO NWS
SULLIVAN TO LAKE COUNTY IL. THE FRONT WON/T REACH SW WI UNTIL 06Z
AND THEN INTO ERN IA AND FAR NW IL. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS ONLY SMALL CHANCES
OF LGT SHOWERS LATE TNT AND ON TUE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP GIVING
THE CHANCES OF LGT SHOWERS. THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOWERED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL ELY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUE DESPITE THE CHANCES OF LGT SHOWERS.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TUE EVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY NNELY WINDS TNT
AND TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVES WILL BUILD
TO 3 TO 4 FEET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FIRST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE MONITORING SOUTHWARD SAGGING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL ACCELERATION
ALONG THE LAKE WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT/TEMP DROPOFF. WATCHING THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE WI AND NOTE SOME INCREASING IN NORTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE BAY AND DOOR COUNTY LOCALES THOUGH PRESSURE RISE AREA NOT
IMPRESSIVE ATTM. MODELS TREND THIS BOUNDARY INTO SE WI THIS EVENING
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER LAKESIDE GUSTS
LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TEMP DROPOFF.
OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM
TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP IS ONLY AS CLOSE AS WESTERN
IOWA AND THAT IS LIFTING MOSTLY NORTHWARD. TREND IN MODELS IS FOR
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO TUESDAY
WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME LEAD IMPULSES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM
SYSTEM TO SLIDE INTO WI. THERE ARE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
QPF WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST...BASICALLY SPLITTING PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH GRADUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN INTO SC WI LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE CHANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO POPS
WITH THIS PROGRESSION. MUCH COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE...ESP IN THE EAST
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS WITH NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH DRIES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
LEVEL RH FROM 925 TO 850 MB REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A LITTLE
ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 50 JOULES/KG THAT BECOMES SURFACE BASED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 100 JOULES/KG.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AT TIMES DEPENDED ON THE MODEL. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING
THE FASTEST.
THE SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A MORE OPEN
WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION DECREASES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE 700/850/925 MB RH STAYS HIGH. THE SURFACE AND
925 MB LOW CROSSES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY.
A DRY WEDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500 JOULES/KG.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LIGHT RAIN ENDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS A FASTER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A STRONG SURFACE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE
LOW BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM.
INLAND VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN STORY
WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP BUFKIT
STILL SHOWING FROPA ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR
A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY
CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN
AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE
QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE.
MARINE...
WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED BUT NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVERALL
EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH WAVES PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AT THIS POINT EXPECTING WINDS/WAVES TO BE BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WI DELLS TO NWS
SULLIVAN TO LAKE COUNTY IL. THE FRONT WON/T REACH SW WI UNTIL 06Z
AND THEN INTO ERN IA AND FAR NW IL. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS ONLY SMALL CHANCES
OF LGT SHOWERS LATE TNT AND ON TUE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN AS PVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP GIVING
THE CHANCES OF LGT SHOWERS. THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE LOWERED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL ELY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUE DESPITE THE CHANCES OF LGT SHOWERS.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TUE EVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FIRST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE MONITORING SOUTHWARD SAGGING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL ACCELERATION
ALONG THE LAKE WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT/TEMP DROPOFF. WATCHING THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE WI AND NOTE SOME INCREASING IN NORTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE BAY AND DOOR COUNTY LOCALES THOUGH PRESSURE RISE AREA NOT
IMPRESSIVE ATTM. MODELS TREND THIS BOUNDARY INTO SE WI THIS EVENING
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER LAKESIDE GUSTS
LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TEMP DROPOFF.
OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM
TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP IS ONLY AS CLOSE AS WESTERN
IOWA AND THAT IS LIFTING MOSTLY NORTHWARD. TREND IN MODELS IS FOR
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO TUESDAY
WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME LEAD IMPULSES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM
SYSTEM TO SLIDE INTO WI. THERE ARE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
QPF WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST...BASICALLY SPLITTING PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH GRADUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN INTO SC WI LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE CHANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO POPS
WITH THIS PROGRESSION. MUCH COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE...ESP IN THE EAST
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS WITH NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH DRIES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
LEVEL RH FROM 925 TO 850 MB REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A LITTLE
ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 50 JOULES/KG THAT BECOMES SURFACE BASED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 100 JOULES/KG.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AT TIMES DEPENDED ON THE MODEL. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING
THE FASTEST.
THE SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A MORE OPEN
WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION DECREASES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE 700/850/925 MB RH STAYS HIGH. THE SURFACE AND
925 MB LOW CROSSES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY.
A DRY WEDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500 JOULES/KG.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LIGHT RAIN ENDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS A FASTER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A STRONG SURFACE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE
LOW BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM.
INLAND VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN STORY
WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP BUFKIT
STILL SHOWING FROPA ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR
A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY
CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN
AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE
QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE.
MARINE...
WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED BUT NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVERALL
EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH WAVES PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AT THIS POINT EXPECTING WINDS/WAVES TO BE BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
408 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PVA DIVES OUT OF CANADA FROM AROUND HUDSON
BAY VICINITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
NOTED. SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
INDICATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES
THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE TODAY.
A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CT ZONES. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE THAN MOST
OF THE NWP MODEL SUITE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW/N THIS MORNING...AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR LAGS A BIT...AND EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS LIKELY FALL
LOWER THAN MOS FCST OUTPUT...A TYPICAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. FEEL DRY EARLY SPRING AIR WILL MIX DOWN RESULTING IN
LOWER DEW POINTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WARRANT RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TROUGH PIVOTS EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN...ALTHOUGH RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...THEN OVER OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND
TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IDEAL. AS SUCH...PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS. LATE DAY SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WED NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR...COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHERE WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS ELSEWHERE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INVOF NYC...TO THE LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS ON WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON THU...THEN IN THE LOWER/MID
70S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRI.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT HERE. HAVE HELD OFF ON CHANCE POP
UNTIL LATE EVENING THU INTO FRI...THEN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP EVEN MORE THAN ITS 18/12 PREDECESSOR...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THU NIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT LATE DAY THUNDER FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING 30
KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW TO N GUSTS 20-25KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW/NW. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BUT MOST
OF THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM LAND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER. THESE
WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NW. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BETTER CHANCE
FOR GUSTS ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH
FOR ANY SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
QUIET ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SOME TIME FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING DUE TO VERY DRY FUELS...MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS RH VALUES
FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
5-10 MPH...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT MAY BRING 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH
BASIN AVG QPF...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH
ANY LATE DAY TSTMS. NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
215 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF BAND
OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
215 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
MID LEVEL FORCING AND A BRIEF BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 8 AM. RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION
AND GENERALLY ONLY LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. TEMPS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE FOR TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTH COAST BY MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT CUMULUS CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT STILL PEAKS OF SUN EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN MA COAST TO RISE MUCH PAST 50.
ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MODELS SHOWING
100 TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE
IS A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH AND CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP IS LOW. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SOME
ACTIVITY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...GIVEN COLD TEMPS
ALOFT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IF
ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE
MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA...ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. N/NW
BREEZE WILL KEEP LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT
WINDS...WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 30S TO NEAR 40...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE TEMPS MAY GET A BIT LOWER WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFO ABOUT THE UPCOMING STARTING DATE FOR THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING
PROGRAM.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH THE APPROACH
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CROSSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WILL HAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY...
MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CROSSING THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA.
MEANWHILE A SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...POTENTIALLY THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO JUST OVER AN INCH. GFS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX JUST BELOW 0...TT LOW 50S. SO
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. POSSIBILITY FOR A SECOND WEAKER FRONT
TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER ON
IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY QPF. MOST OF THIS 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z DESPITE A BRIEF
BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO MID AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY VFR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH A
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED T-STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA ON A SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD
OF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED AM.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS W/MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS EARLY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PERSISTENT EAST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WEATHER OUTCOMES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET...UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE...
WEDNESDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BUILD SEAS WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT HEIGHTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS DURING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY. RH VALUES NOT AS LOW ON TUESDAY...EVEN
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. MIN RH VALUES 25-40 PERCENT EXPECTED...
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS...WE WILL
BE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WORCESTER COUNTY WEST IN
MA...ALL OF NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST RI.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY...REACHING THE 60S AND
AROUND 70 INLAND. WARMING AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LOW RH
VALUES. CONTINUE TO EXPECT INTERIOR MIN RH OF 20-25 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY...AND 25-30 PCT THURSDAY. COASTAL VALUES WILL BE 30-45 PCT
EACH DAY...EXCEPT HIGHER CAPE/ISLANDS. THE DEVELOPING WARMTH AND
DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FRIDAY...
EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WARM...MIN RH MAINLY 50-
60 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM STARTS APRIL 21 FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...EAST
COASTAL MA INCLUSIVE OF ALL OF SOUTHEAST MA...AND NORTHERN CT
FROM HARTFORD COUNTY EAST. FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NWS TAUNTON
COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM BEGINS IN
EARLY MAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK/BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PASSES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PHASING PAC AND POLAR JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A TROUGH DIGGING FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MORNING.
WITH BEST FORCING TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEP NW
FLOW...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSAGE...BEST
CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN CT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INDICATING A LINE OF
SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH FROM N TO S FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NYC EWD...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. LATEST RUN HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THIS.
CAA IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH LOW-LEVELS BECOMING
MIXED IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT MID 50S IN NYC/NJ
METRO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS AND GRADUAL CAA IN ITS WAKE AS
LOW STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE NE.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...LAGGING CAA...AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INTERIOR...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL PLAIN.
HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL TDS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON DEEP MIXING OF
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH
FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE TOWARDS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. CAA
ON GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED FOR FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
RELAXING LATE. LOWS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA...CAN EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. PATCHY
FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 40S IN/AROUND NYC..AND IN THE LOW 40S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 60S...AND THEN HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS THE
QUICKEST TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
IT DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND DOES NOT CLEAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF NYC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING 30
KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW TO N GUSTS 20-25KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS OVERNIGHT. BUOY 44025 HAS BEEN RANGING BETWEEN
4.5 AND 4.9 FT THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A DECREASING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE ELY SWELL DIMINISHES. OTHER OCEAN BUOYS
ARE ALREADY DOWN TO 4 FT.
NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND MARGINAL
SEAS BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND DEPARTING
LOW PRES NEAR 40N/60W. GRADIENT SLACKENS BY AFTERNOON...AND
TRANQUIL CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY
DRY FUELS...MIN RH 25-35 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
DRY CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE
DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 MPH...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO
COASTAL SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN UP TO 1/4" QPF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST UPDATE: PW
AVIATION: BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO BERKSHIRES...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IR SATELLITEIMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WITH SOME BREAKS FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ONGOING OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. DRY LOW
LEVELS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A RAIN SHOWER WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY LAST A SHORT DURATION AT
ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO ONLY BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE DONE BY
SUNRISE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
SPRINKLE OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT
WILL DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE BREEZE
COULD GUST TO 30 MPH IN THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS...HIGHER
TERRAIN....MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS H850 TEMPS COOL TO ABOUT -
2C. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING VALLEYS LOOK TO CRACK THE 60S...50S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND SLACKENING
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TO THE 30S AT NIGHT. THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...60 TO 65
VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...STILL IN PLACE FROM EARLIER...BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS FOR THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW TO
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN POLAR JET FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FOR
HIGHER POPS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND +10C.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WE RETURN H850 TEMPS
BELOW 0C. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE THOSE VALLEY TEMPERATURES
FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE 50S WITH 40S FOR THE
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH
20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT
TO MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE REGION OF
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SUPPORTS THE GFS BUT DELAYED ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY AVERAGE JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL
MOVE ALSO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. HAVE SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS IN KGFL TAF.
VCSH AND SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS IN KALB AND KPSF TAFS WITH
NO MENTION IN THE KPOU TAF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AND WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN ADVANCING HIGH AND ALONG
WITH GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO
14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 100 PM TO 600 PM EDT ON
TUESDAY...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OVER FIVE DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BRING A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL TO REALLY ANY OUR REGION. THERE MIGHT BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 10-15
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR MAIN FIRE WEATHER USERS...WE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AGAIN FOR ALL AREAS...INCLUDING ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE WINDS WILL RELAX BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND SHOULD LIGHTER...FROM THE NORTHWEST...5-15 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS...
15-25 PERCENT.
BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERN BREEZE 5-15 MPH. AT THIS POINT...AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY...DROPPING TO THE 30S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT MOST.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IT/S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY VARY ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PASSES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PHASING PAC AND POLAR JET ENERGY WILL HAVE A TROUGH DIGGING FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY MORNING.
WITH BEST FORCING TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEP NW
FLOW...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSAGE...BEST
CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN CT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TEMPS/DEWS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INDICATING A LINE OF
SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH FROM N TO S FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NYC EWD...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. LATEST RUN HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THIS.
CAA IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH LOW-LEVELS BECOMING
MIXED IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT MID 50S IN NYC/NJ
METRO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS AND GRADUAL CAA IN ITS WAKE AS
LOW STRENGTHENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE NE.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...LAGGING CAA...AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INTERIOR...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL PLAIN.
HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL TDS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON DEEP MIXING OF
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH
FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE TOWARDS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. CAA
ON GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED FOR FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
RELAXING LATE. LOWS NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA...CAN EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. PATCHY
FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 40S IN/AROUND NYC..AND IN THE LOW 40S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 60S...AND THEN HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS THE
QUICKEST TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
IT DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE REGION UNTIL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND DOES NOT CLEAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 06Z
THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING 30 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW TO N GUSTS 20-25KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVSY CONDS OVERNIGHT. BUOY 44025 HAS BEEN RANGING BETWEEN
4.5 AND 4.9 FT THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A DECREASING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE ELY SWELL DIMINISHES. OTHER OCEAN BUOYS
ARE ALREADY DOWN TO 4 FT.
NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND MARGINAL
SEAS BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND DEPARTING
LOW PRES NEAR 40N/60W. GRADIENT SLACKENS BY AFTERNOON...AND
TRANQUIL CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUE AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY
DRY FUELS...MIN RH 25-35 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
DRY CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 20S...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE
DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 MPH...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO
COASTAL SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN UP TO 1/4" QPF.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.AVIATION...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BOTH SHOWING
THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE SHOWERS SLIDING SOUTHWARD SO VCSH HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT ALL SITES HAVE DROPPED
OFF A BIT AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO GEORGIA AND NORTH
FLORIDA LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO EASTERLY AND BECOMING
GUSTY WITH 20KT+ GUSTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WE WILL BE HAVING A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS
THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW DAYS SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY.
/BH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016/
UPDATE...
THE LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING, AND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...BEACHGOERS CAN STILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ROUGH
CONDITIONS ALONG AREA BEACHES AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TODAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
/AR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016/
UPDATE...SEVERAL ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE BANDS SET UP THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST, LIKELY
AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE LAST FEW VIS SAT IMAGES SUGGEST A
DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH MODELS
SHOWING BANDS PUSHING SOUTHWARDS WITH TIME. WILL ADD THE MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MARINE RELATED WITH NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL CONTINUING TO BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. /ALM
AVIATION...GUSTY NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING
EAST COAST, THOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR WHEN SHOWERS PASS
BY. WILL KEEP VCSH IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR EAST COAST SITES
THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MOST SHRA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF REGION
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NNE 6-10KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE INLAND SITES TO BECOME VARIABLE OR NNW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE ENE AFTER 14Z AGAIN, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KAPF
MAY SEE A SEABREEZE AFTER 20Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NNW. /ALM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016/
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAVE CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON...USHERING IN
RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMA TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS...LESS INFLUENCED BY THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED SEASONABLY WARM MID 80S. DIURNAL
CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
IMPACTING ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
UPPER 50S WESTERN INTERIOR TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT WEATHER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER GEORGIA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MEANING VERY LITTLE CHANCE IN
WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...CHANGES IN WEATHER
BEGIN THURSDAY...AS HIPRES SLIDES EWD INTO ATLC. THIS WILL
INITIATE A WARMING TREND...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /REMNANTS OF CLOSED H5 LOPRES
OVER TEXAS TODAY/ WILL CROSS MID-ATLC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IT
DOES...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH NO
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND IT...THE FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE
CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO WORK WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT
TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE. DRIER AIRMASS MAY AGAIN MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AT TIMES.
MARINE...IN ATLANTIC...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF UP TO 7 FEET WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NE WIND OF
15 KT WILL PREVAIL. THUS...SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES...AND THROUGH TUESDAY OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.
EVEN AFTER THE SWELL SUBSIDES MID-WEEK...NORTHEAST WIND MAY AGAIN
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 67 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 69 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 81 68 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ651-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....99/AR
AVIATION...99/BH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1209 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...
216 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
OUR STREAK OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER DAYS WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND
FILLS TO AN OPEN TROUGH WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEST-EAST COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL
LAKE BREEZE ONSHORE WINDS AND PUSHING INTO FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST
IL BY MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA COUNTIES
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP EASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES
BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS A SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND BRINGS A SLUG OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING MOIST CONVERGENCE ON THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SLOPE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN IA.
FARTHER EAST...OUR LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT EASTWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIP PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS EXPECTED...GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH
HANDLING OF THE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL MODULATE
PERIODS OF GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING A PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH PERHAPS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACKS FROM
EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI OR THE IL/WI BORDER REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA AND
TEMPORARILY LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MILD/MOIST WARM
SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FORECAST
MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WHILE COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MODEL RUN
QPF TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INDICATE FROM ROUGHLY 0.60 TO
1.30 INCHES FOR SOME SPOTS...WITH THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TUESDAY A
LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-
50S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE LOW-MID 60S WELL INLAND...WHILE SOUTH OF
I-80 HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 70S. WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWEST-WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SMALLER DIFFERENCES...WITH MID-UPPER 60S
NORTH AND NEAR/AROUND 70 SOUTH.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
216 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE FROM TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT AND NOT UNLIKE OUR
COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
SUNDAY. THUS AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PRECIP THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS IS LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...AND LOOKS MUCH COOLER FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE FRONT WAS FARTHER NORTH.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
IN ITS WAKE. WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A STORM SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THIS WEATHER WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA TODAY...I THINK MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY WITH VFR CIGS ABOVE 8,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
216 PM...ONE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1126 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Surge of moisture advancing eastward along a trough/frontal
boundary late this evening, with a jump in dew points of about
10-15 degrees extending from near Galesburg to Winchester. LAPS
sounding from Quincy showing the column significantly moistening
over the last couple hours, while humidity levels just east of
this boundary still only about 40-50% at this late hour. Have
tweaked the hourly PoP grids to limit the evening slight chances
from about Peoria-Jacksonville, and overnight have removed the
PoP`s east of a Bloomington-Taylorville line. Have also removed
thunder chances, with no lightning activity being observed to our
west and little in the way of MUCAPE available. Dew point grids
were also significantly adjusted to reflect the timing of this
boundary, primarily west of I-55.
UPDATE Issued at 824 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Area of rain is starting to cross into far west central Illinois
this hour, but ceilings are above 9,000 feet there so amounts are
fairly light initially. Evening soundings from our office and
Davenport IA show quite a bit of dry air below 20,000 feet that
will need to be overcome, so have made some adjustments to the PoP
trends and basically limited the 30% or higher to along and west
of the Illinois River valley this evening, before increasing them
after midnight. Latest HRRR guidance bring more of the showers
into the area after midnight, and mainly west of I-55. Also made
some adjustments to the thunder chances and limited them to after
midnight, across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The upper level ridge will finally start to break down across the
central portion of the country as the broad upper low over the
Rockies starts to make its way east towards the Mississippi Valley
later tonight. The leading band of showers well out ahead of the
upper low will track east and into parts of west central Illinois
late tonight and crawl its way east into parts of central and
east central Illinois on Tuesday. With the increase in cloud cover
tonight and a light southerly flow, temperatures will not be as cool
as the past few mornings with early morning lows expected to range
from the lower 50s far north to the upper 50s over the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The initial band of showers will continue to edge east across
our area on Tuesday. In addition, a weak frontal boundary will
slip south through our northern counties during the day which may
help to develop additional showers and isolated storms during the
afternoon, but instability parameters, mid level lapse rates and
shear look weak at this time. Highest POPs will remain over the
west Tuesday night but as shortwave energy rotates northeast into
our area from the upper low on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
POPs will increase to likely over a large part of the forecast
area. As the weakening upper level shortwave shifts across the
area Thursday, the better rain chances shift into our east. The
actual upper trof axis takes until late Thursday night or early
Friday morning to shift east of the state, as a result, will
continue to carry at least low chance POPs during this time frame.
Temperatures will cool a bit from what we have been seeing the
past several days due to the cloud cover and periodic shower
activity, but still average above normal. We may see another 80
degrees over far southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon as that
part of the forecast area will not see much if any rainfall and
the cloud cover will not be as thick. After that, temperatures
drop back into the mid 60s to low 70s for the remainder of the
week.
With the upper level trof off to our east on Friday, we should see a
period of pleasant weather again on Friday and Saturday as upper
level ridging builds back into the Midwest in response to another
trof moving into the Rockies. After Saturday night or early Sunday,
confidence drops off as models show some significant spread,
especially with the placement of the surface boundary across the
Midwest into early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase to our north on Saturday night and gradually work
their way south into next week as the boundary settles south
across our area, with a rather active looking pattern setting up,
at least into the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Rain showers over west central Illinois have been reaching the
ground as far east as KMQB as of 04Z, but the areas just east of
there remain very dry in the low levels and precipitation at
KPIA/KSPI likely to hold off until about 08-10Z or so. Not feeling
as confident on the prospects of MVFR conditions, with KPIA most
likely to be close enough to a warm front for this to be a
concern. Have included a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings early
Tuesday afternoon there, but kept the remaining sites with
ceilings 5000 feet or higher. The threat of showers will diminish
late in the period, with ceilings rising closer to 10,000 feet for
a time.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
CO/WY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER IN
EASTERN COLORADO. RAP SHOWS A STRONG PV 1.5 HEIGHT ANOMALY IN
EASTERN COLORADO HIGHLIGHTING TROPOPAUSE FOLD/STRONG SUBSIDENT
REGION BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS MORNING-TODAY...INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIP TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RAP WET BULB TEMPS VARY
WILDLY AND PRECIP TYPE MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD...WHILE MODERATE PRECIP BANDS HAVE COOLED TEMP PROFILES
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX (POSSIBLE COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER). RESULT HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
CHANGING OVER BRIEFLY.
FROM A SNOWFALL PERSPECTIVE...WEBCAMS IN REGIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO THAT HAVE RECEIVED SNOW ONLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASS...WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES REMAINING WET. IF
COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WOULD SEE
THIS IN ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS...AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DO A LOT TO LIMIT THE IMPACTS.
TREND IN LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO DOWNPLAY QPF AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP EXIT OF PRECIP FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST IN THE 15-21Z TIME PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
STRONG REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THIS PROGRESSIVE TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS
ARE STILL REASONABLE...BUT I ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY TO SPEED UP DROP OFF IN PRECIP COVERAGE. DESPITE PRECIP
ENDING SOONER LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
DAYTIME LAPSE RATES...AND CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS CLEARING WOULD BE ALSO BE NECESSARY
FOR ANY NON SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR CWA SHOULD BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW (AS IT TRANSITIONS EAST). DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE
DAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 60S/AROUND 70).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF ALASKA SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVE INTO MEXICO
DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY THEN TOWARD
EASTERN KANSAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
GFS/GEM MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY DAYS THEN
INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NORTHERN
UTAH THEN WYOMING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED...HOWEVER GFS/ECMWF
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5C FROM FRIDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
MEX GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE IS
LATCHING ON TO THE GFS/GEM MODELS WHICH MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE DAY THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE DAY
INCREASING A TAD DURING THE NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS. UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS AS WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND A
CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON APR 18 2016
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
RAINFALL COMES AN HOUR OR SO LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BASED
ON THE SLOWER TREND OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. CEILING AT KPUB FELL
TO IFR WHEN THE PRECIPITATION MOVED OVERHEAD. BASED ON THAT EXPECT
THE SAME TREND FOR KGLD. KMCK MAY NOT FALL AS LOW DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SITE. KGLD WILL HAVE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE MODERATE RAINFALL AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF SNOW. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KGLD FIRST IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
KMCK DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
A shortwave continues to lift through northeast KS per the 20Z water
vapor imagery. Meanwhile the cut off upper low remains over
northwest CO. Surface obs indicate the trough axis is just to the
east of the forecast area with some drier and cooler air advecting
in from the northwest.
Subsidence from the shortwave is expected to keep the weather dry
over the forecast area for tonight. The main concern is whether some
fog develops. This is highly dependent on whether skies clear out
and the boundary layer radiates outs. Latest visible satellite
continues to show expansive stratocu deck across western KS and the
18Z RAP has trended towards keeping a stratus deck over the forecast
area through the night. Since the HRRR/RAP/SREF show visibilities
remaining at 5 miles or better, will keep the mention of patchy fog
across north central KS inserted by the prev shift since some breaks
in the clouds are possible, but will not expand it and any further.
Later shifts will need to watch the cloud trends for clearing. Then
the potential for fog ,even dense fog, would increase. Have not made
many changes to the low temp forecast as models continue to support
readings from the mid 40s across north central KS to the lower 50s
in east central KS as a result of some weak cold air advection.
For Tuesday, models show the potential for another shortwave to
round the bottom of the cut off low and lift north. As it does,
there is some modest moisture return as 850 winds veer around more
to the southeast. So with the prospects for increasing large scale
forcing, chances for precip increase through the afternoon from
south to north. Models show very modest instability developing given
mid level lapse rates remaining around 6 C/km. The GFS is most
aggressive in developing some instability across east central KS
tomorrow afternoon, but it also tries to break out the sun and heat
things up a little more. So while some thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, think rain showers are most likely. Models do not show any warm
air advection and feel like clouds are going to be hard to scour
out. With this in mind, have afternoon highs in the mid and upper
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Models are trending to a stronger wave rotating around the upper low
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with good forcing aloft interacting
with increasing moisture for another likely moderate, fairly
widespread rain event. It again appears to occur in the late Tuesday
night to Wednesday morning hours but a lack of consistent training
and instability still weak at best should keep amounts from being
troublesome. May have some clearing in the afternoon for temps to
push into the middle to upper 60s but this could be a challenge
depending on precip and temp timing. Not expecting much chance for
fog development WEdnesday night with northwest winds increasing
behind a weak surface trough and some high cloud remaining. The
northwest winds will not be able to bring in much air in this
stagnant pattern and warmer temps are anticipated for Thursday. Will
need to maintain some small pops for most areas through early
Thursday with the mean upper trough still upstream.
Longer range periods continue to show upper ridging in control of
the central CONUS into at least Saturday, but models become
increasingly into disagreement in handling of energy along nearly
the Pacific coast of much of North America. The 12Z ECMWF weakens
much of this energy, allowing for at least weak ridging aloft to
persist, allowing a front to sink south through the Northern Plains,
while the 12Z GFS and a few of its ensembles brings a shortwave on
east through the Southern Rockies over the weekend with a more
obviously wet and stormy scenario for late Sunday into Monday. With
many other GFS ensembles differing significantly, have kept precip
chances somewhat reduced compared to the GFS. Highs still look to
rise toward 80 for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
MVFR ceilings are lasting longer than previously thought therefore
have extended them into the late morning. There is a chance if MHK
can clear out there will ground fog. Due to the uncertainty of
this clearing have kept it as a tempo group for now. The ceilings
may lift above MVFR tomorrow around mid day.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY EARLIER
EXTENDED IN A LINE ACRS SW LA INTO CNTL LA. AS THESE STORMS
WEAKENED AND COLLAPSED...THEY PRODUCED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SW LA FOR A FEW HOURS...EVEN SPREADING
BRIEFLY INTO SE TX BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING...AND PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A COUPLE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS. A FEW OF THE MEASURED PEAK WINDS INCLUDE 44 MPH
AT SOUTHLAND FIELD IN CARLYSS...46 MPH AT LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL
AIRPORT...AND A 45 KT (52 MPH) WIND GUST AT KVBS AWOS 20 MILES
SOUTH OF JOHNSONS BAYOU.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING ACRS SE TX AND
WRN LA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL BECOMING MORE NMRS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACRS THIS
AREA...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. RECENT MRMS BIAS CORRECTED
RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACRS SE TX
AND EXTREME SW LA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 8
INCHES. WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO REFLECT OBS AND TRENDS AND
ALSO FINE TUNED POPS AS WELL. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS FINE.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA OVER W LA FROM POE TO LCH AND CAMERON
EXTENDING OFFSHORE...MOVING EAST AT ~10 MPH. THUS...PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT LCH...AND AT AEX SHORTLY
AS IT ARRIVES. FOR BPT...HEAVIEST CONVECTION OUT OF SE TX...WITH
ONLY INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. AT LFT/ARA...LEFT TEMPO GROUP FOR
INTERMITTENT SHRA AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT BELIEVE
IT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BE CLOSE TO DISSIPATION BY THE TIME
IT ARRIVES OVER ACADIANA. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT REMAINING SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SE TX/W LA BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD EAST AS WELL. PLACED PROB30 GROUP
FROM 18-24Z FOR TSRA & IFR VSBY/CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS
BREAKS DOWN...EVENTUALLY SENDING A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL AID IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT N-S ORIENTED
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ACTUALLY DEPICTS IT INDICATING WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION AS IT REACHES INTO EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION THE
BEST...AND IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO
2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN GENERALLY WITHIN A REGION BOUNDED BY THE
CURRENT WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO
LAKE ARTHUR LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OF QUICKLY TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A MARKSVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE.
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH INDICATIONS IN THIS AND
OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST TX
AND WESTERN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS TWD TUE MORNING. MSTR
CONTENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...MEANING ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND WILL
ALSO BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE CURRENT 7AM TUE EXPIRATION TIME.
PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THE WATCH
WILL EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXTENDED IN TIME LATER SHIFTS.
FCST BEYOND THIS TIME BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE REGION...WITH YET MORE
RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CDFNT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE START
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROF.
13
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPENING
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 63 76 64 79 / 70 70 50 50
LCH 69 77 68 79 / 70 70 40 50
LFT 67 78 67 80 / 40 40 30 40
BPT 68 77 68 79 / 60 90 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027-030-041-
073.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ041.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ052>054-073-
074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ216.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ215.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CO/WY AND RIDGING FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH NRN MN AND
WI...LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NRN ONTARIO GRAZING THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH FROM NRN SD INTO NE
IA WITH A FRONT INTO THE WRN LAKES. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
FGEN/DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE FRONT LINGERED THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND ACROSS CNTRL WI TO NEAR GRB. OVER UPPER MI...UPSLOPE NE
FLOW HAS SUPPORTED SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER N CNTRL UPPER
MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA...THICKEST OVER THE SOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING SLOWLY NE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL APPROACH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY ESE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
AND MOISTURE INFLOW...EXPECT THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE
CWA.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NORTH SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 6C...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. THICKER
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SRLY FLOW INTO W UPPER MI TONIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS FAR WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WED MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WEAK FORCING MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER...SO DOUBT THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERCOME THAT DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT AND THU. BEST FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE N WIND AREAS LATE THU INTO EARLY THU NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ANY
PTYPE CHANGE OCCURS.
FRI LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE COLDER AIR AND N WINDS
THAT MOVE IN WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 40 AND UP TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
COULD SEE SOME WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECIP LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN HIGHLY VARIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
AS DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS
TO BREAK UP AND GIVE WAY TO VFR WX. THESE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES SLIDING SE THRU ONTARIO WL THEN
PREDOMINATE THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NO GALES EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRINGS LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE NW. WINDS STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
postively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported
into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold
front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered showers will affect KCOU and possibly KUIN through the
rest of tonight. Showers should be light and likely not pose
visibility issues. For the metro terminals...showers should stay
west. Ceilings will also lower at KCOU and KUIN into MVFR later on
tonight. Some minor visibility reduction is also possible in fog
at KCOU. For Tuesday...highest threat of showers/storms again from
KCOU to KUIN with the best chance of convection during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Heavier showers/storms could dip visibilities
down briefly into IFR. Metro terminals again likely too far to
the east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lion`s share of shower/thunderstorm activity expected to stay west
of terminal through Tuesday night. However...scattered
showers/storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening in
particular. Continue to leave out prevailing group as chances look
higher further to the west. Winds will remain light/variable
before turning southeasterly again Tuesday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...Good Chance for Showers Today through Wednesday...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered light showers across the area this evening and have
affected the terminal locations with some light rain. While
showers will be in the vicinity of the aviation sites tonight and
Tue morning, the main concern will be with MVFR and IFR
conditions. Will see ceilings deteriorate overnight and may build
down enough for visibilities to also be affected. Showers will
again become more numerous late in the period as the upper level
shortwave to the west slowly approaches.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low
still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front
currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down
into the Texas panhandle. At the regional level, band of heavier
precip has moved northeastward through the morning and early
afternoon, gradually weakening with time as primary forcing remained
north across Iowa. Scattered showers remain on the backside of the
main band, and the HRRR has done a great job with the overall precip
trend. With a few hundred joules of CAPE, might see an isolated
thunderstorm or two with this scattered activity. Western half of
the CWA should see a downward trend in activity towards evening.
Another vorticity maxima will peel off from the main low late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front looks to stall across the
region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for
precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg
of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms expected
once again Wednesday in somewhat of a wash-rinse-repeat cycle. Upper
low finally begins to eject into the Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday, eventually merging into the northern stream flow. As the
trough passes to the north of the region, we could see a few more
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
Upper level ridging will build into the central conus as we head
into the weekend, bringing warm temperatures and relatively quiet
weather. The next system to watch will be a trough ejecting out of
the central Rockies the beginning of the next work week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
120 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
MAIN UPDATE FOR THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS TO TREND
POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE RADAR IS VOID OF ECHOS. ALSO
TRENDED THE DISSIPATION OF RAIN A BIT FASTER AS LATEST TRENDS AND
HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATE. FORCING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NOW AS THE EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH TRIGGERED
THE LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ROTATES SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
REGION...WITH OMEGA RAPIDLY DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
RECENT RAP SIMULATIONS /ESPECIALLY ITS 01 UTC RUN/ AND THE 00 UTC
NAM ARE PARTICULARLY IN SYNC WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS...SO WE
RELIED ON THEM TO REFINE HOURLY POPS THROUGH 15 UTC. THIS ONCE
AGAIN MEANT DELAYING THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF RAINFALL AND HENCE A
REDUCTION IN OVERALL POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SUCH THAT
THEY MAXIMIZE ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT AT MINOT TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND INTENSIFYING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ND AT 02 UTC...AND PER RAP AND NAM OMEGA FIELDS
SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK THROUGH ABOUT 09 UTC...AFTER WHICH BOTH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION /AND FORCING ON
ISENTROPIC SURFACES/ QUICKLY WANES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
RAIN IS FILLING IN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND...AND THE
BETTER-FORCED BATCH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN NORTHERN SD IS ON
TRACK TO EASE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING TOO. THE MAIN CHANGE WE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO SLOW THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS
A FASTER EAST TO WEST TRANSLATION THAN A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THUS
POPS FROM WILLISTON TO MINOT AND RUGBY WERE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED THROUGH 06 UTC. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MONITORING ADVECTION/
UPSLOPE-AIDED FOG ALONG THE COTEAU REGION OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
ND...BUT ARE HANDLING IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND WEB
GRAPHIC VICE AN ADVISORY UNTIL OR UNLESS IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
IT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WITH BLOCKING RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RAIN COVERAGE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS NEXT
WAVE PRODUCING BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO SHOW ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ONLY PLACE THAT WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT WOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IF ANY SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE FOG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA ALREADY REPORTING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MORE OR LESS WENT WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTHEAST OF THE
COTEAU...SPREADING SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LOW STARTS A SLOW MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WORKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. RIDGE WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ARE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SOME KEY
FEATURES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AS SLOW-MOVING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT AND THE MOST INTENSE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ND...BUT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS FOR ALMOST ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AT SOME POINT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1132 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ceilings and visibilities have not diminished as quickly as
earlier expected so the main change to the TAFs has been to push
back the IFR/MVFR visibilities and lower ceilings to 08-09Z. Low
level moisture looks to diminish some near the NE OK terminals
mid to late afternoon tomorrow with VFR conditions now expected.
Daytime showers looking like they will be more spotty so will
transition the earlier PROB30 mentions of showers to VCSH at all
terminals. Additional showers looking likely late tomorrow evening
and especially after the valid TAF period so will include PROB30
mention at the E OK terminals at the very end of the TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Narrow band of showers continues across parts
of eastern OK...along weak front/inverted surface
trof where modest dewpoint pooling was occurring.
This activity has been slowly diminishing this
evening...and HRRR suggests this trend will continue.
Could see an slight uptick in coverage across southeast
OK and western AR later tonight as low-level strengthens
some across eastern TX.
Have maintained highest pops across our eastern sections
the rest of the night...and will remove mention of
thunder.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG MORNING ON THE WARNING DESK YESTERDAY...BACK AT THE
FORECAST DESK ONE MORE TIME. AREA RADAR ARE RATHER QUIET COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
OVERALL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 70
DEWPOINTS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY STILL ADVECT INLAND DESPITE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT THE KHGX 88D SHOW
30-35KTS JUST 2000-5000FT AGL VEERING FROM S TO SW WHICH SUGGESTS
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALOFT LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHILE A RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SEEM ON TRACK WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TODAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT AS
NOTED WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE...COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD BE ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IT IS
HARD TO TELL IF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING ANY OF THESE FEATURES OR
NOT. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN INLAND. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ALONG A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. WRF-ARW HAS A HINT OF THIS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED. RIGHT NOW THINK A GENERAL 40-60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. JUST WORRIED THAT IF SOME OF THESE STORMS GET A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THEN WE WILL SEE RAIN RATES BACK IN THE 1-2 INCH AN HOUR
RANGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES. BASED ON UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO A LOCALIZED SPOT OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FOR THIS REASON WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE GFS/NAM AND THEN HIGH RES WRF MODELS WANT TO BRING A
SQUALL LINE/MCS INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES GOING UP TO 1.8 INCHES WITH S/SW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND 20-30KTS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE RAINFALL. HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT AT
LEAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
39
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 67 78 66 79 / 40 40 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 67 78 67 81 / 50 40 70 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 70 76 70 78 / 50 30 60 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
352 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
CLEARED THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED WAKE LOW DEVELOPED AND DROVE WINDS
UP AS IT DEPARTED OFF THE COAST. WIND GUSTS REACHED 52 KNOTS AT
VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 47 KNOTS AT BROWNSVILLE SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER AND
STABILIZED PER THE HRRR AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING.
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL DO THE SAME AND WEAKEN AS IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PERTURBATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SHOULD KICK OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT 30/40 POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON LOCATIONS OF PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW SIDE TODAY CONCERNING PRECIPITATION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
GET STARTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RESIDES THEN DEVELOP INLAND AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 TROUGH FINALLY
OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
RELEASES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS DECREASED...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...FURTHER STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW SEABREEZE TYPE
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED. SATURDAY THE
NEXT H5 TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD INSTABILITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. WITH GULF MOISTURE STILL IN THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER
SATURDAY...MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT H5
TROUGH...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOWERED.
IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THIS CURRENT WET REGIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SSE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET
WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42020 EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN FRINGES OF
OVERNIGHT MCS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS OF
THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AS THIS
AREA PASSES BY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TODAY WITH LONG
FETCH OF EASTERLY WAVES KEEPING SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET. SCA IS
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS AND DIMINISHING
SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 74 84 73 / 40 30 20 30
BROWNSVILLE 84 73 85 72 / 40 30 30 30
HARLINGEN 86 73 87 72 / 40 30 30 30
MCALLEN 88 73 88 72 / 40 40 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 72 90 71 / 30 40 30 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 73 78 72 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55/64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
931 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS REFORMED JUST EAST OF DENVER WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN CORNER BY LATE AFTN. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW AS WELL. RAP KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NEAR THE NRN FOOTHILLS WHILE THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS FROM DENVER NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
FORECAST UPDATES BEING MADE AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPINNING
OUT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT...SNOW WAS
SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AND
I-76 CORRIDOR ON THE PLAINS. A COUPLE EMBEDDED WAVES WERE NOTED IN
THE DISTURBANCE...ONE ROTATING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE WITH DEFORMATION SNOWFALL ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
SPREADING NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE WAS HANGING BACK A BIT OVER WESTERN
PARK COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SOME RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY BELOW 4500-5000 FEET BUT ENOUGH COOLING DUE TO
DRY AIR AND WET BULB EFFECTS COULD BE A BIT LOWER. AREAS THAT SEE
SNOW THIS MORNING COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN INCREASING LAPSE
RATES UNDER THE COLD POOL. THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER BY RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK WITH SHORT WAVE. WILL
TREND FORECAST WORDING FROM STRATIFORM IN THE MORNING TO SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE MAY DRY OUT
COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING...BUT ITS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO STILL
DRIFT OFF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW REACHES THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AT THIS
TIME EXPECTING ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9000 FEET FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAINS HAVE
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE TAKES A COUPLE DAYS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE PINNACLE OF THE WARMING
TREND. BEFORE THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...60S ON THURSDAY AND THEN AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
MOVING OUT OF THE REGION WILL DELIVER ONE FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
AS CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOUNTAIN
AREAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...MIXING IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO COVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE PLAINS WHICH ALSO TRANSITION TO
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AFTER THE WARM DAYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO COOL
BACK DOWN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW
TROUGHINESS AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THOSE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGHINESS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS...FIRST
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
WINDS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE ELY BY 18Z AND CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN WILL BE IF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DVLP. RAP KEEPS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS WHILE THE HRRR HAS ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING OVER DIA BY
EARLY AFTN. AT THIS TIME NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO GO SO WILL JUST
MENTION VCNTY FOR THIS AFTN.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1126 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR FORECAST TO KEEP
TEMPS...WINDS...SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. UPPED THE WINDS JUST A BIT AND NOW DEPICT
GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT SHOULD DROP RATHER RAPIDLY
AS DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE. THERE IS A SIZABLE
PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CONNECTICUT BUT
EXPECT PARTIAL DISSIPATION WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING.
NEVERTHELESS...NEEDED TO PUT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE CT
AND LONG ISLAND ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION OF RED FLAG WARNING AS POSTED.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PVA DIVES OUT OF CANADA FROM AROUND HUDSON
BAY VICINITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
NOTED. SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
INDICATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES
THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE TODAY.
A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CT ZONES. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE THAN MOST
OF THE NWP MODEL SUITE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW/N THIS MORNING...AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR LAGS A BIT...AND EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS LIKELY FALL
LOWER THAN MOS FCST OUTPUT...A TYPICAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. FEEL DRY EARLY SPRING AIR WILL MIX DOWN RESULTING IN
LOWER DEW POINTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WARRANT RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TROUGH PIVOTS EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN...ALTHOUGH RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...THEN OVER OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND
TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IDEAL. AS SUCH...PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS. LATE DAY SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WED NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR...COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHERE WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS ELSEWHERE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INVOF NYC...TO THE LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS ON WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON THU...THEN IN THE LOWER/MID
70S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRI.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT HERE. HAVE HELD OFF ON CHANCE POP
UNTIL LATE EVENING THU INTO FRI...THEN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP EVEN MORE THAN ITS 18/12 PREDECESSOR...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THU NIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT LATE DAY THUNDER FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A
VFR CIG OF BKN040-050 MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z FOR SOME OF
THE SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING
30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOWER IN SPEED JUST A BIT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW/NW. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BUT MOST
OF THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM LAND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER. THESE
WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NW. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BETTER CHANCE
FOR GUSTS ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH
FOR ANY SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
QUIET ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SOME TIME FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT MAY BRING 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH
BASIN AVG QPF...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH
ANY LATE DAY TSTMS. NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...OKX STAFF
LONG TERM...OKX STAFF
AVIATION...THOMPSON/OKX STAFF
MARINE...OKX STAFF
HYDROLOGY...OKX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PVA DIVES OUT OF CANADA FROM AROUND HUDSON
BAY VICINITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
NOTED. SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
INDICATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS EASTERN LOCALES
THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE TODAY.
A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE CT ZONES. HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE THAN MOST
OF THE NWP MODEL SUITE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR SO.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW/N THIS MORNING...AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH...CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR LAGS A BIT...AND EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN QUITE
MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS LIKELY FALL
LOWER THAN MOS FCST OUTPUT...A TYPICAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. FEEL DRY EARLY SPRING AIR WILL MIX DOWN RESULTING IN
LOWER DEW POINTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WARRANT RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS FOR RAPID BRUSH FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...TROUGH PIVOTS EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING
BACK IN...ALTHOUGH RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...THEN OVER OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND
TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IDEAL. AS SUCH...PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS. LATE DAY SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WED NIGHT...OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR...COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...WHERE WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS ELSEWHERE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INVOF NYC...TO THE LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
RESULTING SW FLOW WILL USHER A WARM AND MILD AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS ON WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON THU...THEN IN THE LOWER/MID
70S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRI.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST. DUE TO THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE FRONT TO ACTUALLY MAKE IT HERE. HAVE HELD OFF ON CHANCE POP
UNTIL LATE EVENING THU INTO FRI...THEN DRY FRI NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP EVEN MORE THAN ITS 18/12 PREDECESSOR...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THU NIGHT...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT LATE DAY THUNDER FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 13Z-14Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE NYC TERMINALS APPROACHING
30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOWER IN SPEED JUST A BIT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY...VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SHRA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW/NW. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BUT MOST
OF THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM LAND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER. THESE
WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NW. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BETTER CHANCE
FOR GUSTS ON THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH
FOR ANY SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
SEAS GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
QUIET ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SOME TIME FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING DUE TO VERY DRY FUELS...MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS RH VALUES
FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
5-10 MPH...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO COASTAL SEA BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT MAY BRING 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH
BASIN AVG QPF...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH
ANY LATE DAY TSTMS. NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
CO/WY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER IN
EASTERN COLORADO. RAP SHOWS A STRONG PV 1.5 HEIGHT ANOMALY IN
EASTERN COLORADO HIGHLIGHTING TROPOPAUSE FOLD/STRONG SUBSIDENT
REGION BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS MORNING-TODAY...INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIP TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RAP WET BULB TEMPS VARY
WILDLY AND PRECIP TYPE MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD...WHILE MODERATE PRECIP BANDS HAVE COOLED TEMP PROFILES
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX (POSSIBLE COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER). RESULT HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
CHANGING OVER BRIEFLY.
FROM A SNOWFALL PERSPECTIVE...WEBCAMS IN REGIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO THAT HAVE RECEIVED SNOW ONLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASS...WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES REMAINING WET. IF
COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WOULD SEE
THIS IN ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS...AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DO A LOT TO LIMIT THE IMPACTS.
TREND IN LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO DOWNPLAY QPF AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP EXIT OF PRECIP FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST IN THE 15-21Z TIME PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
STRONG REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THIS PROGRESSIVE TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS
ARE STILL REASONABLE...BUT I ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY TO SPEED UP DROP OFF IN PRECIP COVERAGE. DESPITE PRECIP
ENDING SOONER LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
DAYTIME LAPSE RATES...AND CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS CLEARING WOULD BE ALSO BE NECESSARY
FOR ANY NON SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR CWA SHOULD BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW (AS IT TRANSITIONS EAST). DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE
DAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 60S/AROUND 70).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF ALASKA SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVE INTO MEXICO
DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY THEN TOWARD
EASTERN KANSAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
GFS/GEM MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY DAYS THEN
INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NORTHERN
UTAH THEN WYOMING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED...HOWEVER GFS/ECMWF
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5C FROM FRIDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
MEX GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE IS
LATCHING ON TO THE GFS/GEM MODELS WHICH MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE DAY THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE DAY
INCREASING A TAD DURING THE NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS. UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS AS WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND A
CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
KMCK WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH I STILL COULDNT
RULE OUT A MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. THE
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD (LESS LIKELY AT
KMCK). BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE AND LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. I COULD STILL SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANYTHING
WOULD BE LINGERING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 06Z NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY AT KGLD WITH AT LEAST MVFR
AT KMCK. I TRENDED TAFS DOWN AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT HELD OFF ON
INTRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS UPDATE. THERE IS JUST TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/EXTENT OF ANY SUB IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CO/WY AND RIDGING FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH NRN MN AND
WI...LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NRN ONTARIO GRAZING THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH FROM NRN SD INTO NE
IA WITH A FRONT INTO THE WRN LAKES. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
FGEN/DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE FRONT LINGERED THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND ACROSS CNTRL WI TO NEAR GRB. OVER UPPER MI...UPSLOPE NE
FLOW HAS SUPPORTED SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER N CNTRL UPPER
MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA...THICKEST OVER THE SOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING SLOWLY NE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL APPROACH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY ESE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
AND MOISTURE INFLOW...EXPECT THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE
CWA.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NORTH SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 6C...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. THICKER
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SRLY FLOW INTO W UPPER MI TONIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS FAR WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WED MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WEAK FORCING MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER...SO DOUBT THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERCOME THAT DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT AND THU. BEST FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE N WIND AREAS LATE THU INTO EARLY THU NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ANY
PTYPE CHANGE OCCURS.
FRI LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE COLDER AIR AND N WINDS
THAT MOVE IN WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 40 AND UP TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
COULD SEE SOME WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECIP LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN HIGHLY VARIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES BY MID MORNING...EXPECT LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT CMX AND SAW TO BREAK UP AND GIVE WAY TO VFR WX.
THESE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES
SLIDING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL THEN PREDOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NO GALES EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRINGS LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE NW. WINDS STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Most shower activity today will be confined to central and eastern
Missouri, with the KC and STJ areas remaining dry for much of the
day. MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting to VFR across eastern KS,
and expect this trend to continue into western MO through the
morning. Widespread rain will overspread the region late tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Most shower activity today will be confined to central and eastern
Missouri, with the KC and STJ areas remaining dry for much of the
day. MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting to VFR across eastern KS,
and expect this trend to continue into western MO through the
morning. Widespread rain will overspread the region late tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
558 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
postively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported
into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold
front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Band of light rain from near KCOU to KUIN will gradually dissipate
this morning. Additional light showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon...but sparse coverage precludes
placing in TAFS. Ceilings will remain in the VFR category...with
generally light and variable winds.
Specifics for KSTL: Band of light rain this morning should stay
west of KSTL metro...and ceilings will likely remain above 7000
feet for the duration of this TAF period. There is a chance for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon...but
coverage is expected to remain sparse. Winds will remain light
southwest to south.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
549 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: IFR ceilings will continue at
the KJLN TAF site early this morning, then will improve through
the day. Ceilings may lower into the MVFR range at the KSGF and
KBBG TAF sites this morning before improving this afternoon.
Patchy fog will also occur early this morning, especially at the
KBBG site.
Showers should remain north and south of the TAF sites through
this morning, then scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon into tonight across the area.
Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR to IFR range again
tonight into early Wednesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
postively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported
into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold
front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered showers will affect KCOU and possibly KUIN through the
rest of tonight. Showers should be light and likely not pose
visibility issues. For the metro terminals...showers should stay
west. Ceilings will also lower at KCOU and KUIN into MVFR later on
tonight. Some minor visibility reduction is also possible in fog
at KCOU. For Tuesday...highest threat of showers/storms again from
KCOU to KUIN with the best chance of convection during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Heavier showers/storms could dip visibilities
down briefly into IFR. Metro terminals again likely too far to
the east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lion`s share of shower/thunderstorm activity expected to stay west
of terminal through Tuesday night. However...scattered
showers/storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening in
particular. Continue to leave out prevailing group as chances look
higher further to the west. Winds will remain light/variable
before turning southeasterly again Tuesday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...Good Chance for Showers Today through Wednesday...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered light showers across the area this evening and have
affected the terminal locations with some light rain. While
showers will be in the vicinity of the aviation sites tonight and
Tue morning, the main concern will be with MVFR and IFR
conditions. Will see ceilings deteriorate overnight and may build
down enough for visibilities to also be affected. Showers will
again become more numerous late in the period as the upper level
shortwave to the west slowly approaches.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low
still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front
currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down
into the Texas panhandle. At the regional level, band of heavier
precip has moved northeastward through the morning and early
afternoon, gradually weakening with time as primary forcing remained
north across Iowa. Scattered showers remain on the backside of the
main band, and the HRRR has done a great job with the overall precip
trend. With a few hundred joules of CAPE, might see an isolated
thunderstorm or two with this scattered activity. Western half of
the CWA should see a downward trend in activity towards evening.
Another vorticity maxima will peel off from the main low late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front looks to stall across the
region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for
precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg
of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms expected
once again Wednesday in somewhat of a wash-rinse-repeat cycle. Upper
low finally begins to eject into the Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday, eventually merging into the northern stream flow. As the
trough passes to the north of the region, we could see a few more
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
Upper level ridging will build into the central conus as we head
into the weekend, bringing warm temperatures and relatively quiet
weather. The next system to watch will be a trough ejecting out of
the central Rockies the beginning of the next work week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. AT 9 AM A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SE TX FROM THE SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS SYSTEM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND GALVESTON BAY.
SCATTERED CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NEAR THE COAST AND POINTS WEST.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
AVIATION...
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND AROUND CLL AND UTS WITH SOME MVFR DECKS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE MIGHT END
UP BEING BETWEEN IAH AND GLS. ANTICIPATE A BREAK TONIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE LOWERING OF AREA CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
IFR LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
.FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG MORNING ON THE WARNING DESK YESTERDAY...BACK AT THE
FORECAST DESK ONE MORE TIME. AREA RADAR ARE RATHER QUIET COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
OVERALL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 70
DEWPOINTS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY STILL ADVECT INLAND DESPITE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT THE KHGX 88D SHOW
30-35KTS JUST 2000-5000FT AGL VEERING FROM S TO SW WHICH SUGGESTS
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALOFT LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHILE A RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SEEM ON TRACK WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TODAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT AS
NOTED WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE...COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD BE ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IT IS
HARD TO TELL IF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING ANY OF THESE FEATURES OR
NOT. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN INLAND. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ALONG A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. WRF-ARW HAS A HINT OF THIS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED. RIGHT NOW THINK A GENERAL 40-60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. JUST WORRIED THAT IF SOME OF THESE STORMS GET A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THEN WE WILL SEE RAIN RATES BACK IN THE 1-2 INCH AN HOUR
RANGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES. BASED ON UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO A LOCALIZED SPOT OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FOR THIS REASON WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE GFS/NAM AND THEN HIGH RES WRF MODELS WANT TO BRING A
SQUALL LINE/MCS INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES GOING UP TO 1.8 INCHES WITH S/SW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND 20-30KTS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE RAINFALL. HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT AT
LEAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 67 78 66 79 / 40 40 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 67 78 67 81 / 50 40 70 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 70 76 70 78 / 50 30 60 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.AVIATION...
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND AROUND CLL AND UTS WITH SOME MVFR DECKS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE MIGHT END
UP BEING BETWEEN IAH AND GLS. ANTICIPATE A BREAK TONIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE LOWERING OF AREA CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
IFR LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG MORNING ON THE WARNING DESK YESTERDAY...BACK AT THE
FORECAST DESK ONE MORE TIME. AREA RADAR ARE RATHER QUIET COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
OVERALL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 70
DEWPOINTS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY STILL ADVECT INLAND DESPITE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT THE KHGX 88D SHOW
30-35KTS JUST 2000-5000FT AGL VEERING FROM S TO SW WHICH SUGGESTS
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALOFT LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHILE A RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SEEM ON TRACK WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TODAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT AS
NOTED WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE...COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD BE ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IT IS
HARD TO TELL IF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING ANY OF THESE FEATURES OR
NOT. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN INLAND. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ALONG A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. WRF-ARW HAS A HINT OF THIS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED. RIGHT NOW THINK A GENERAL 40-60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. JUST WORRIED THAT IF SOME OF THESE STORMS GET A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THEN WE WILL SEE RAIN RATES BACK IN THE 1-2 INCH AN HOUR
RANGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES. BASED ON UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO A LOCALIZED SPOT OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FOR THIS REASON WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE GFS/NAM AND THEN HIGH RES WRF MODELS WANT TO BRING A
SQUALL LINE/MCS INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES GOING UP TO 1.8 INCHES WITH S/SW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND 20-30KTS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE RAINFALL. HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT AT
LEAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 67 78 66 79 / 40 40 70 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 67 78 67 81 / 50 40 70 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 70 76 70 78 / 50 30 60 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY HAS DECREASED AS
06Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA STABILIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS. MFE HAS RECENTLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITE WILL BE VFR TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY BEHIND A WAKE LOW FROM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS. TONIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 8-10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
CLEARED THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED WAKE LOW DEVELOPED AND DROVE WINDS
UP AS IT DEPARTED OFF THE COAST. WIND GUSTS REACHED 52 KNOTS AT
VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 47 KNOTS AT BROWNSVILLE SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER AND
STABILIZED PER THE HRRR AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING.
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL DO THE SAME AND WEAKEN AS IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PERTURBATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SHOULD KICK OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT 30/40 POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON LOCATIONS OF PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW SIDE TODAY CONCERNING PRECIPITATION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
GET STARTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RESIDES THEN DEVELOP INLAND AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 TROUGH FINALLY
OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
RELEASES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS DECREASED...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...FURTHER STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW SEABREEZE TYPE
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED. SATURDAY THE
NEXT H5 TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD INSTABILITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. WITH GULF MOISTURE STILL IN THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER
SATURDAY...MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT H5
TROUGH...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOWERED.
IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THIS CURRENT WET REGIME.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SSE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET
WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42020 EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN FRINGES OF
OVERNIGHT MCS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS OF
THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AS THIS
AREA PASSES BY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TODAY WITH LONG
FETCH OF EASTERLY WAVES KEEPING SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET. SCA IS
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS AND DIMINISHING
SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1226 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
CO/WY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER IN
EASTERN COLORADO. RAP SHOWS A STRONG PV 1.5 HEIGHT ANOMALY IN
EASTERN COLORADO HIGHLIGHTING TROPOPAUSE FOLD/STRONG SUBSIDENT
REGION BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS MORNING-TODAY...INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIP TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RAP WET BULB TEMPS VARY
WILDLY AND PRECIP TYPE MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD...WHILE MODERATE PRECIP BANDS HAVE COOLED TEMP PROFILES
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX (POSSIBLE COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER). RESULT HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
CHANGING OVER BRIEFLY.
FROM A SNOWFALL PERSPECTIVE...WEBCAMS IN REGIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO THAT HAVE RECEIVED SNOW ONLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASS...WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES REMAINING WET. IF
COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WOULD SEE
THIS IN ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS...AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DO A LOT TO LIMIT THE IMPACTS.
TREND IN LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO DOWNPLAY QPF AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP EXIT OF PRECIP FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST IN THE 15-21Z TIME PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
STRONG REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THIS PROGRESSIVE TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS
ARE STILL REASONABLE...BUT I ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY TO SPEED UP DROP OFF IN PRECIP COVERAGE. DESPITE PRECIP
ENDING SOONER LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
DAYTIME LAPSE RATES...AND CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS CLEARING WOULD BE ALSO BE NECESSARY
FOR ANY NON SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR CWA SHOULD BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW (AS IT TRANSITIONS EAST). DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE
DAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 60S/AROUND 70).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF ALASKA SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVE INTO MEXICO
DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY THEN TOWARD
EASTERN KANSAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
GFS/GEM MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY DAYS THEN
INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NORTHERN
UTAH THEN WYOMING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED...HOWEVER GFS/ECMWF
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5C FROM FRIDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
MEX GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE IS
LATCHING ON TO THE GFS/GEM MODELS WHICH MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE DAY THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE DAY
INCREASING A TAD DURING THE NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS. UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS AS WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND A
CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES AWAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO VFR WITH
SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MVFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND CEILINGSIMPROVE
TO VFR. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN
TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1218 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
CO/WY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER IN
EASTERN COLORADO. RAP SHOWS A STRONG PV 1.5 HEIGHT ANOMALY IN
EASTERN COLORADO HIGHLIGHTING TROPOPAUSE FOLD/STRONG SUBSIDENT
REGION BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THIS MORNING-TODAY...INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS ON PRECIP TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RAP WET BULB TEMPS VARY
WILDLY AND PRECIP TYPE MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD...WHILE MODERATE PRECIP BANDS HAVE COOLED TEMP PROFILES
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX (POSSIBLE COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER). RESULT HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
CHANGING OVER BRIEFLY.
FROM A SNOWFALL PERSPECTIVE...WEBCAMS IN REGIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO THAT HAVE RECEIVED SNOW ONLY SHOW LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASS...WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES REMAINING WET. IF
COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCURS IN OUR WESTERN CWA WE COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WOULD SEE
THIS IN ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS...AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DO A LOT TO LIMIT THE IMPACTS.
TREND IN LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO DOWNPLAY QPF AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE SPEEDING UP EXIT OF PRECIP FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST IN THE 15-21Z TIME PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
STRONG REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPOPAUSE FOLD THIS PROGRESSIVE TREND SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS
ARE STILL REASONABLE...BUT I ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY TO SPEED UP DROP OFF IN PRECIP COVERAGE. DESPITE PRECIP
ENDING SOONER LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
DAYTIME LAPSE RATES...AND CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS CLEARING WOULD BE ALSO BE NECESSARY
FOR ANY NON SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT (VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR CWA SHOULD BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW (AS IT TRANSITIONS EAST). DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE
DAY. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT BETTER INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 60S/AROUND 70).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF ALASKA SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVE INTO MEXICO
DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY THEN TOWARD
EASTERN KANSAS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
GFS/GEM MODELS HAVE THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY DAYS THEN
INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NORTHERN
UTAH THEN WYOMING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED...HOWEVER GFS/ECMWF
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5C FROM FRIDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
MEX GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR
50 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THE EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE IS
LATCHING ON TO THE GFS/GEM MODELS WHICH MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE DAY THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE DAY
INCREASING A TAD DURING THE NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S (WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA).
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS. UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS AS WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND A
CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES AWAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO VFR WITH
SHOWERS...BUT EXPECTING MVFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND CEILINGSIMPROVE
TO VFR. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY RETURN
TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...IMPROVING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
104 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SE
TEXAS THIS MORNING. BASED ON HRRR AND MESOSCALE FORECAST
TRENDS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS SW LOUISIANA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
WILL INCREASE AS WELL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL END PRECIPITATION AROUND 03Z
EVERYWHERE. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THEN TRENDING TOWARD IFR OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING VS 24 HRS AGO...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER EAST TX/WRN LA AS
OPPOSED TO WELL ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANOTHER 90 MINUTES...AND WILL TAKE
THAT TIME TO MONITOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS INCOMING
GUIDANCE FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING DISORGANIZED
AND POSING A MORE ISOLATED AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN RISK TODAY...WE
WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS YESTERDAY PRODUCED FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINS WITH
FLOODING ACROSS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA... SEVEN RIVER FORECAST SITES ARE NOW CURRENTLY IN
FLOOD WITH A MAJORITY OF THE LOCATIONS IN SE TX.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OUT A BIT MORE QUIET AS THE RADAR IS
INDICATING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR... THESE STORMS ARE
LIFTING TO THE NORTH. WHAT LOOKS TO BE HAPPENING IS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS TAKING A BREATHER BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES
ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 TOWARDS THE
COAST ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING STORMS STILL REMAINS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT UNDER THE SYSTEM AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE FROM CLOUDS AND RAINS.
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THURSDAY... FINALLY DRAWING TO A CLOSE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
SINKING AIR BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALOFT.
THE REGION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RAINS... ADDITIONAL
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RUNOFF INTO DITCHES AND BAYOUS WITH MORE
RIVER FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 76 63 76 65 / 70 50 70 60
LCH 76 68 77 68 / 70 40 50 40
LFT 78 67 80 68 / 50 40 40 40
BPT 77 68 78 68 / 70 40 60 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CO/WY AND RIDGING FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA THROUGH NRN MN AND
WI...LEAVING NW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF NRN ONTARIO GRAZING THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...NE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH FROM NRN SD INTO NE
IA WITH A FRONT INTO THE WRN LAKES. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
FGEN/DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE FRONT LINGERED THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND ACROSS CNTRL WI TO NEAR GRB. OVER UPPER MI...UPSLOPE NE
FLOW HAS SUPPORTED SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER N CNTRL UPPER
MI. OTHERWISE...IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA...THICKEST OVER THE SOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW EDGING
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING SLOWLY NE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL APPROACH UPPER MI. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY ESE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN ONTARIO HIGH AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING
AND MOISTURE INFLOW...EXPECT THE RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE
CWA.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NORTH SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 6C...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND. LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. THICKER
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SRLY FLOW INTO W UPPER MI TONIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS FAR WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WED MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
WEAK FORCING MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED...BUT MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER...SO DOUBT THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERCOME THAT DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT AND THU. BEST FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH DRIZZLE IN
UPSLOPE N WIND AREAS LATE THU INTO EARLY THU NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ANY
PTYPE CHANGE OCCURS.
FRI LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE COLDER AIR AND N WINDS
THAT MOVE IN WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 40 AND UP TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
COULD SEE SOME WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECIP LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN HIGHLY VARIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO WILL PREDOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL 3 SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NO GALES EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRINGS LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE NW. WINDS STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The slow moving upper low will continue to move eastward over the
next 24 hours and bring the potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the Ozarks. Winds across the region will remain
southerly with temperatures falling into the 50`s tonight. May
need to watch for some very patchy fog again in the morning, but
coverage should be rather spotty as rain coverage should be
greater than last night.
Limited instability and little shear will significantly limit any
potential for strong or severe storms through Wednesday. An
Isolated rumble of thunder will likely be the most storms can
muster despite temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower
70s as the upper low begins to lift slowly to the northeast.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will continue to make its slow eastward progression
Wednesday night through Thursday night with the potential for
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Despite the cloud cover and rain potential, temperatures will be
in the upper 40s into the 50s overnight and in the 70s during the
afternoons as we head into the weekend.
Upper level ridging will take control of the regions weather for
Friday and Saturday with highs climbing into the upper 70s with
sunny skies.
For the later half of the weekend however, the upper level flow
will become more southwesterly which will bring the return for
rain and storms chances for late Sunday night into the beginning
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Pesky upper level low underneath blocking omega pattern still
sitting off to the west. Scattered showers will remain in the
terminals and mainly keeping in VCSH in the forecast. Main
aviation concern again will be with the MVFR/IFR conditions. Will
see ceilings lower again tonight, eventually into the IFR category
at the 3 terminal locations. Conditions will improve during the
day Wednesday, back into MVFR/VFR by late in the day.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Large upper level low spinning over northeast Colorado will begin to
move slowly eastward tonight and pick up speed on Wednesday. Several
lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low tonight and Wednesday
which will continue to keep the threat for precip over the region. I
can`t say that there will be any time through 00Z Thursday that is
certain to be dry, but at least through mid morning the showers will
be more scattered in nature than wide-spread. The showers currently
on the scope should dissipate slowly this evening with a few likely
popping up at times across the CWFA through the night. Expect
increasing Increasing coverage during the late morning and afternoon
on Wednesday as 850mb winds veer to the southwest and one of the
more prominent vort-lobes rotates through Missouri into Illinois.
This combined with the 850mb moisture convergence and the associated
surface trof will likely touch off more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what areas
get precipitation. I stuck pretty close to ensemble MOS guidance
for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru
the upcoming weekend.
The wx won`t be typical for a longwave RIDGE, however, because of
the presence of a cutoff LOW, that by the time Wednesday night rolls
around, will be in the process of being re-absorbed back into the
main flow and will be on the move.
The models still track the main system center to our north on
late Wednesday night and Thursday, leaving only the northern CWA
across northern MO and central IL with any measure of upper support
for pcpn. There will also be a surface cold front slowly dropping
thru Thursday that will maintain lift and focus. So, rain chances
will continue easily thru Thursday.
The more significant drying of the column and subsequent reduction
in rain chances should arrive with passage of the TROF axis late
Thursday, but even with this, there is some model discrepancy on
timing, with the GEM delaying this until early Friday morning, but
the mode amongst the solutions favors late Thursday afternoon or
early evening. Temps will temporarily dip back to near normal for
late week between the clouds, rain, and brief intrusion of a cooler
airmass behind the Thursday front.
The departure of the leftover cutoff LOW system which should be by
Friday will mean a more typical result for a longwave upper RIDGE--
and back to dry and warm wx for the weekend for most areas once the
southerly winds kick back in on Saturday. Daytime max temps
should reach near 80F again.
The GFS has since backed off its adverisement of a strong upper level
system for next Monday, but both the EC and GFS now at least show a
favorable setup for what should be a frontal boundary dropping south
into our region for late Monday into Tuesday with a supportive flow
aloft from the W-NW. So despite losing what would have been good
upper support, the signal for rain chances is no less good late
Monday and Tuesday than it was 24hrs ago, and largely maintained the
at or slightly above average climo PoPs during this period.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
A large upper level storm system centered over Colorado is sending
waves of smaller disturbances into the Mississippi Valley. Most of
the lower ceilings have risen at this time, and I expect VFR
ceilings and visibilities to prevail this afternoon and evening.
However...isolated to widely scattered showers may temporarily
lower the flight category to MVFR or even IFR in the heavier rain.
Coverage is uncertain, but best estimate at this time is 20-30
percent. Showers should dissipate slowly this evening after we
lose daytime heating. Think lower ceilings will develop again
Wednesday morning ahead of the surface trof of low pressure which
will move into the area toward the end of the period.
Additionally, more showers and probably thunderstorms as well are
expected to develop during the mid to late morning. IFR ceilings
are possible...but did not want to go that low until confidence
improves so have MVFR in all the terminal forecasts for Wednesday
morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert this afternoon
into the overnight period as well. Widely scattered showers are
developing over eastern Missouri. Looks like there are a couple
of stronger ones with some lighting in them now too. Unfortunately
there really aren`t any easily definable features to try to time
any precipitation at Lambert...something could develop over the
terminal with little or no warning. Fortunately the majority of
the showers should be brief and not particularly heavy. The most
likely impact would be a brief period of 3-5SM visibility. Showers
should dissipate slowly after sunset. MVFR looks likely tomorrow
morning ahead of a surface trof with scattered showers developing
after 12Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely after 17Z.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Large upper level low spinning over northeast Colorado will begin to
move slowly eastward tonight and pick up speed on Wednesday. Several
lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low tonight and Wednesday
which will continue to keep the threat for precip over the region. I
can`t say that there will be any time through 00Z Thursday that is
certain to be dry, but at least through mid morning the showers will
be more scattered in nature than wide-spread. The showers currently
on the scope should dissipate slowly this evening with a few likely
popping up at times across the CWFA through the night. Expect
increasing Increasing coverage during the late morning and afternoon
on Wednesday as 850mb winds veer to the southwest and one of the
more prominent vort-lobes rotates through Missouri into Illinois.
This combined with the 850mb moisture convergence and the associated
surface trof will likely touch off more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what areas
get precipitation. I stuck pretty close to ensemble MOS guidance
for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru
the upcoming weekend.
The wx won`t be typical for a longwave RIDGE, however, because of
the presence of a cutoff LOW, that by the time Wednesday night rolls
around, will be in the process of being re-absorbed back into the
main flow and will be on the move.
The models still track the main system center to our north on
late Wednesday night and Thursday, leaving only the northern CWA
across northern MO and central IL with any measure of upper support
for pcpn. There will also be a surface cold front slowly dropping
thru Thursday that will maintain lift and focus. So, rain chances
will continue easily thru Thursday.
The more significant drying of the column and subsequent reduction
in rain chances should arrive with passage of the TROF axis late
Thursday, but even with this, there is some model discrepancy on
timing, with the GEM delaying this until early Friday morning, but
the mode amongst the solutions favors late Thursday afternoon or
early evening. Temps will temporarily dip back to near normal for
late week between the clouds, rain, and brief intrusion of a cooler
airmass behind the Thursday front.
The departure of the leftover cutoff LOW system which should be by
Friday will mean a more typical result for a longwave upper RIDGE--
and back to dry and warm wx for the weekend for most areas once the
southerly winds kick back in on Saturday. Daytime max temps
should reach near 80F again.
The GFS has since backed off its adverisement of a strong upper level
system for next Monday, but both the EC and GFS now at least show a
favorable setup for what should be a frontal boundary dropping south
into our region for late Monday into Tuesday with a supportive flow
aloft from the W-NW. So despite losing what would have been good
upper support, the signal for rain chances is no less good late
Monday and Tuesday than it was 24hrs ago, and largely maintained the
at or slightly above average climo PoPs during this period.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
A large upper level storm system centered over Colorado is sending
waves of smaller disturbances into the Mississippi Valley. Most of
the lower ceilings have risen at this time, and I expect VFR
ceilings and visibilities to prevail this afternoon and evening.
However...isolated to widely scattered showers may temporarily
lower the flight category to MVFR or even IFR in the heavier rain.
Coverage is uncertain, but best estimate at this time is 20-30
percent. Showers should dissipate slowly this evening after we
lose daytime heating. Think lower ceilings will develop again
Wednesday morning ahead of the surface trof of low pressure which
will move into the area toward the end of the period.
Additionally, more showers and probably thunderstorms as well are
expected to develop during the mid to late morning. IFR ceilings
are possible...but did not want to go that low until confidence
improves so have MVFR in all the terminal forecasts for Wednesday
morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert this afternoon
into the overnight period as well. Widely scattered showers are
developing over eastern Missouri. Looks like there are a couple
of stronger ones with some lighting in them now too. Unfortunately
there really aren`t any easily definable features to try to time
any precipitation at Lambert...something could develop over the
terminal with little or no warning. Fortunately the majority of
the showers should be brief and not particularly heavy. The most
likely impact would be a brief period of 3-5SM visibility. Showers
should dissipate slowly after sunset. MVFR looks likely tomorrow
morning ahead of a surface trof with scattered showers developing
after 12Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely after 17Z.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Short Term (Today through Thursday night):
The main feature of interest in the short term continues to be the
upper level low out west. It is centered over northeastern Colorado
this afternoon. This low will continue to meander slowly eastward
tonight as it remains cut off from the upper level steering flow. It
will however take on a negative tilt this evening with an associated
vort max rotating around the base of the trough. This will help a
surface low to develop across eastern Kansas tonight. This will
provide for good forcing and expect showers to develop across
eastern Kansas tonight and spread northeastward across the area.
Despite good forcing, weak lapse rates and only a couple hundred
Joules of CAPE should limit thunderstorm activity however, isolated
storms can not be ruled out across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. Tomorrow the upper level low will move into
the vicinity of the Missouri/Iowa border continuing showers and
isolated thunderstorm chances generally north of the Missouri River.
Cloud cover and precipitation will also keep temperatures in the low
to mid 60s across the northern CWA while temperatures across the
south will range into the lower 70s. The upper low will continue to
remain near stationary tomorrow night and will continue shower
chance tomorrow night. Thursday the upper level system finally gets
absorbed into the upper level flow north of the area. Residual
showers on the back side of the exiting upper level trough will
remain possible on Thursday before finally drying out Thursday night
as the upper level trough exits the region. Highs Thursday will
remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Extended Range (Friday through Tuesday):
As the upper level system exits the region, upper level ridging over
the Rockies will begin to push eastward and begin to build into the
local area on Friday. This ridge will remain over the area through
Sunday providing warm temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Highs
by Sunday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. On
Sunday/Sunday night another upper level low will move out from the
central Rockies into the northern Plains flattening the upper level
ridge and will force a cold front into the eastern Plains. This will
bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the area late
Sunday into Sunday night. Unsettled weather may then continue into
the beginning of next week as the upper level low weakens across the
northern Plains on Monday leaving the cold front stalled across the
CWA Monday into Tuesday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Bkn MVFR cigs persists ovr NE KS and NW MO so contd MVFR cigs at the
TAF sites til 20Z-21Z before lifting to low-end VFR. VFR conds will
prevail til tonight when showers will move into the terminals
around 06Z-08Z with he chance for heavier showers in the 09Z- 13Z
window. Isold thunder will be poss with good forcing but time of day
and weak lapse rates should limit thunder chances. Consequently, have
left out of TAFs for now. Otrw...expect MVFR cigs/vis tomorrow
morning with the potential of IFR cigs/vis btn 09Z-13Z in heavier
showers.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...73
Aviation...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The slow moving upper low will continue to move eastward over the
next 24 hours and bring the potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the Ozarks. Winds across the region will remain
southerly with temperatures falling into the 50`s tonight. May
need to watch for some very patchy fog again in the morning, but
coverage should be rather spotty as rain coverage should be
greater than last night.
Limited instability and little shear will significantly limit any
potential for strong or severe storms through Wednesday. An
Isolated rumble of thunder will likely be the most storms can
muster despite temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower
70s as the upper low begins to lift slowly to the northeast.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will continue to make its slow eastward progression
Wednesday night through Thursday night with the potential for
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Despite the cloud cover and rain potential, temperatures will be
in the upper 40s into the 50s overnight and in the 70s during the
afternoons as we head into the weekend.
Upper level ridging will take control of the regions weather for
Friday and Saturday with highs climbing into the upper 70s with
sunny skies.
For the later half of the weekend however, the upper level flow
will become more southwesterly which will bring the return for
rain and storms chances for late Sunday night into the beginning
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Off and on shower activity can be expected again through this TAF
cycle. Visibilities have improved from early this morning,
however, ceilings have been behaving a tad erratic. Ceiling
heights will be the primary challenge through the next 24 hours as
all terminals will alternate between IFR and MVFR conditions at
times. There may even been some brief VFR mixed in this afternoon
as some breaks in the cloud cover have been observed from time to
time on satellite imagery.
Fog/low stratus may once again impact the forecast tomorrow,
though, the signal isn`t nearly as strong as yesterday`s. Still,
enough confidence is there to lower visibilities down to the MVFR
range briefly Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to be light
and variable through the period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
111 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
positively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is
transported into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing
surface cold front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
A large upper level storm system centered over Colorado is sending
waves of smaller disturbances into the Mississippi Valley. Most of
the lower ceilings have risen at this time, and I expect VFR
ceilings and visibilities to prevail this afternoon and evening.
However...isolated to widely scattered showers may temporarily
lower the flight category to MVFR or even IFR in the heavier rain.
Coverage is uncertain, but best estimate at this time is 20-30
percent. Showers should dissipate slowly this evening after we
lose daytime heating. Think lower ceilings will develop again
Wednesday morning ahead of the surface trof of low pressure which
will move into the area toward the end of the period.
Additionally, more showers and probably thunderstorms as well are
expected to develop during the mid to late morning. IFR ceilings
are possible...but did not want to go that low until confidence
improves so have MVFR in all the terminal forecasts for Wednesday
morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail at Lambert this afternoon
into the overnight period as well. Widely scattered showers are
developing over eastern Missouri. Looks like there are a couple
of stronger ones with some lighting in them now too. Unfortunately
there really aren`t any easily definable features to try to time
any precipitation at Lambert...something could develop over the
terminal with little or no warning. Fortunately the majority of
the showers should be brief and not particularly heavy. The most
likely impact would be a brief period of 3-5SM visibility. Showers
should dissipate slowly after sunset. MVFR looks likely tomorrow
morning ahead of a surface trof with scattered showers developing
after 12Z. Showers and thunderstorms are likely after 17Z.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...18z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Off and on shower activity can be expected again through this TAF
cycle. Visibilities have improved from early this morning,
however, ceilings have been behaving a tad erratic. Ceiling
heights will be the primary challenge through the next 24 hours as
all terminals will alternate between IFR and MVFR conditions at
times. There may even been some brief VFR mixed in this afternoon
as some breaks in the cloud cover have been observed from time to
time on satellite imagery.
Fog/low stratus may once again impact the forecast tomorrow,
though, the signal isn`t nearly as strong as yesterday`s. Still,
enough confidence is there to lower visibilities down to the MVFR
range briefly Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to be light
and variable through the period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Bkn MVFR cigs persists ovr NE KS and NW MO so contd MVFR cigs at the
TAF sites til 20Z-21Z before lifting to low-end VFR. VFR conds will
prevail til tonight when showers will move into the terminals
around 06Z-08Z with he chance for heavier showers in the 09Z- 13Z
window. Isold thunder will be poss with good forcing but time of day
and weak lapse rates should limit thunder chances. Consequently, have
left out of TAFs for now. Otrw...expect MVFR cigs/vis tomorrow
morning with the potential of IFR cigs/vis btn 09Z-13Z in heavier
showers.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Most shower activity today will be confined to central and eastern
Missouri, with the KC and STJ areas remaining dry for much of the
day. MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting to VFR across eastern KS,
and expect this trend to continue into western MO through the
morning. Widespread rain will overspread the region late tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Most shower activity today will be confined to central and eastern
Missouri, with the KC and STJ areas remaining dry for much of the
day. MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting to VFR across eastern KS,
and expect this trend to continue into western MO through the
morning. Widespread rain will overspread the region late tonight.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
558 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
postively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported
into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold
front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Band of light rain from near KCOU to KUIN will gradually dissipate
this morning. Additional light showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon...but sparse coverage precludes
placing in TAFS. Ceilings will remain in the VFR category...with
generally light and variable winds.
Specifics for KSTL: Band of light rain this morning should stay
west of KSTL metro...and ceilings will likely remain above 7000
feet for the duration of this TAF period. There is a chance for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon...but
coverage is expected to remain sparse. Winds will remain light
southwest to south.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
549 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...Update to Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: IFR ceilings will continue at
the KJLN TAF site early this morning, then will improve through
the day. Ceilings may lower into the MVFR range at the KSGF and
KBBG TAF sites this morning before improving this afternoon.
Patchy fog will also occur early this morning, especially at the
KBBG site.
Showers should remain north and south of the TAF sites through
this morning, then scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon into tonight across the area.
Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR to IFR range again
tonight into early Wednesday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Water vapor imagery depicting a well defined conveyor belt of
moisture flowing into the region as a result of deep layered
south-southwesterly flow well ahead of the Rockies upper low. An
initial low amplitude impulse in the flow aloft is contributing to
a broken swath of rain/showers through central and northeast MO.
This precipitation should continue a north-northeast movement this
morning shunting to the east and gradually weakening. There may
be a good bit of downtime then from mid-morning into early
afternoon where any precipitation is spotty. However from mid-late
afternoon the diffuse boundary and weak convergence zone
stretching across central and northeast MO is expected to become
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as diurnal
heating results in a weakly unstable and uncapped air mass.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Showers and thunderstorms originating this afternoon are expected
to dissipate by mid-evening once instability wanes and also given
the overall weak forcing. Once again there may then be a good deal
of dry time with only spotty precipitation until well overnight.
At that time a rather prominent short wave trof will begin
spreading large scale ascent from western MO into central MO as it
rotates northeastward in advance of the slowly migrating upper
low. Precipitation chances will ramp-up Wednesday into Wednesday
evening as the aforementioned short wave continues to rotate to
the northeast producing large scale ascent, as the low level
southerly flow/WAA increases, and as the accompanying surface low
and frontal system moves into the region. The precipitation threat
should then diminish overnight as the upper trof becomes more
postively tilted and migratory, and as deeper moisture is transported
into the OH/TN Valleys in advance of the advancing surface cold
front.
There will remain a threat of scattered showers on Thursday in the
post-frontal cyclonic flow and until the passage of the upper trof
axis to the east.
High pressure should dominate on Friday bringing tranquil weather
and seasonable temperatures. The high will then begin retreating
Saturday bringing some moderation, with a bigger warm-up on Sunday
as ridging aloft progresses into the MS valley from the Plains and
low level southerly flow/WAA gets well established. Lot of
uncertainty beyond Sunday with some large pattern differences
amongst the deterministic models and large spreads in the EPS. In
general however an increasing threat of stormy conditions seems to
be the trend.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered showers will affect KCOU and possibly KUIN through the
rest of tonight. Showers should be light and likely not pose
visibility issues. For the metro terminals...showers should stay
west. Ceilings will also lower at KCOU and KUIN into MVFR later on
tonight. Some minor visibility reduction is also possible in fog
at KCOU. For Tuesday...highest threat of showers/storms again from
KCOU to KUIN with the best chance of convection during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Heavier showers/storms could dip visibilities
down briefly into IFR. Metro terminals again likely too far to
the east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Lion`s share of shower/thunderstorm activity expected to stay west
of terminal through Tuesday night. However...scattered
showers/storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening in
particular. Continue to leave out prevailing group as chances look
higher further to the west. Winds will remain light/variable
before turning southeasterly again Tuesday afternoon.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
...Good Chance for Showers Today through Wednesday...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
Moist and unsettled weather conditions will be the story the next
couple of days as the upper low positioned over the southern
Rockies begins a slow eastward progression. Meanwhile a diffuse
frontal boundary remain nearly stalled from north central Oklahoma
into northern Missouri. A broad region of upper level divergence
superimposed over at least weak low level convergence near the
front along with a continued moisture advection will support
scattered to numerous showers today.
After a lull this evening we could see an increase in the
coverage of showers later tonight into Wednesday as a shortwave
swings northeast from the southern Plains ahead of the upper low.
While most everyone will see rainfall the potential for heavy rain
has decreased from previous forecast due to the lack of strong
deep synoptic scale lift and limited instability. This lack of
instability will limit the coverage of thunderstorms with just
isolated embedded thunder expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2016
The upper low will begin to open up and move steadily east during
late week. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will
linger Thursday as the upper level trough axis swings across the
region.
Upper level ridging will build into the region heading into Friday
and this weekend following the passage of the upper level trough.
Building 500 MB heights and return southerly flow will push
temperatures well into the 70s if not near the 80 degree mark this
weekend.
Models continue to show a more unsettled weather pattern returning
next week but details yet to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Scattered light showers across the area this evening and have
affected the terminal locations with some light rain. While
showers will be in the vicinity of the aviation sites tonight and
Tue morning, the main concern will be with MVFR and IFR
conditions. Will see ceilings deteriorate overnight and may build
down enough for visibilities to also be affected. Showers will
again become more numerous late in the period as the upper level
shortwave to the west slowly approaches.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
Large closed low slowly drifting into the High Plains remains the
main weather story for the next few days, as this system will
continue to push several more rounds of rain into the region.
For today, a weak cold front is becoming quasi-stationary near the
southern and eastern borders of our forecast area, and this feature
will be the primary focus for any rainfall through most of the
afternoon. This will keep the higher precipitation chances focused
across the Clinton/Sedalia areas and then up the US-63 corridor.
Areas further west should stay dry most the day with a few peeks of
sun possible.
Rainfall chances increase significantly later tonight when most
models agree that a fairly strong and negatively-tilted shortwave
will round the base of the mean upper low and eject into our area.
This will likely lead to small-scale cyclogenesis over northeast KS,
with resulting lift bringing a large area of rain to eastern KS and
western MO late tonight. A focused area of convergence/frontogenesis
near the surface low combined with precipitable water values between
an inch and an inch and a half could favor some modest rainfall
amounts, particularly from eastern KS into northwest MO where some
areas could see an inch or more of rain from this system. Most
precipitation will taper off Weds afternoon as the surface low tracks
into Iowa, though a few showers or storms could linger into central
MO along a trailing front.
Large upper low will finally begin to push east of the region on
Thursday when it will merge with the northern jet stream and phase
into a broad, progressive upper wave. A few showers are possible
Thursday on the back side of this system, otherwise the departure of
the upper low will finally allow for drying conditions heading into
Friday and Saturday. Deep upper ridging building in behind this
system will bring a warming trend into the weekend with several areas
pushing 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low
still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front
currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down
into the Texas panhandle. At the regional level, band of heavier
precip has moved northeastward through the morning and early
afternoon, gradually weakening with time as primary forcing remained
north across Iowa. Scattered showers remain on the backside of the
main band, and the HRRR has done a great job with the overall precip
trend. With a few hundred joules of CAPE, might see an isolated
thunderstorm or two with this scattered activity. Western half of
the CWA should see a downward trend in activity towards evening.
Another vorticity maxima will peel off from the main low late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front looks to stall across the
region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for
precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg
of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms expected
once again Wednesday in somewhat of a wash-rinse-repeat cycle. Upper
low finally begins to eject into the Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday, eventually merging into the northern stream flow. As the
trough passes to the north of the region, we could see a few more
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
Upper level ridging will build into the central conus as we head
into the weekend, bringing warm temperatures and relatively quiet
weather. The next system to watch will be a trough ejecting out of
the central Rockies the beginning of the next work week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Scattered showers have moved out of west central and northwest MO and
will gradually shift east overnight. Extensive area of MVFR ceilings
will likely remain intact over northern, west central and central MO
overnight. Satellite imagery does show the clearing line over central
KS shifting east and projects to reach the MO/KS border around 12z.
These clouds will then be replaced by broken VFR ceilings for most of
Tuesday. Should start to see scattered convection form or move into
west central MO and east central KS by late Tuesday evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1128 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN BIG HORN COUNTY MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY
WYOMING...INCLUDING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY...WITH ONLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS...AND
REDUCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HAVE ALSO PARED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION BASED
ON HRRR GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS OF MOISTURE TRANSFER...AS
WELL AS CURRENT OBS AROUND THE REGION. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
FINALLY EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION CONTINUING TO IMPACT HIGHER HILLS AS FOG. GILSTAD
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SHERIDAN AND STILLWATER COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST UPSLOPE
FORCING WILL SQUEEZE OUT THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE. THE LAST BIT OF
MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH AND GRADUALLY WARM THIS
MORNING OVER THE BIG HORNS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT THROUGH NOON...WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET. FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SHOW SHOULD COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. FOG COULD BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AS AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND PUT PATCHY FOG FROM ROUNDUP
TO RED LODGE AND LOCATIONS EAST. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IS ADVECTED IN. EXPECT AN EVEN WARMER DAY IN THE UPPER 60S.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL PUT
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SPORADIC. DOBBS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
SOLVING A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW ALOFT INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LOW
NORTH RIGHT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE
MUCH WETTER AND DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE UPPER DOWN IN THE DESERT BUT HAS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES SHOW
A WIDE SPREAD ACROSS THE BOARD FOR EACH MODEL. RMOP /RELATIVE
MEASURE OF PREDICTABILLITY/ NUMBERS AREA QUITE LOW OVER OUR REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. SO WILL STICK TO A BLEND TO REDUCE RISK OF BIG
BUST. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP IN AN AREA EAST OF A SHERIDAN WYOMING TO BILLINGS LINE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED
IFR/LIFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOG
TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MEIER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 039/071 042/078 048/082 049/072 047/062 041/056
6/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 43/W 33/W
LVM 062 037/072 039/077 042/081 042/071 040/061 037/055
2/W 10/U 01/U 00/U 13/T 44/W 44/W
HDN 053 035/071 036/079 040/082 042/074 042/066 038/057
4/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 33/W 32/W
MLS 054 038/068 039/077 044/081 045/071 045/065 040/056
2/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
4BQ 047 035/067 035/075 042/081 044/073 044/067 040/057
2/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
BHK 050 034/067 036/074 042/077 041/065 041/060 038/054
2/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
SHR 049 031/064 033/074 037/079 040/073 041/064 037/057
4/W 21/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 33/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1126 AM MDT TUE APR 19 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN BIG HORN COUNTY MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY
WYOMING...INCLUDING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY...WITH ONLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS...AND
REDUCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HAVE ALSO PARED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION BASED
ON HRRR GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS OF MOISTURE TRANSFER...AS
WELL AS CURRENT OBS AROUND THE REGION. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
FINALLY EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION CONTINUING TO IMPACT HIGHER HILLS AS FOG. GILSTAD
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SHERIDAN AND STILLWATER COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST UPSLOPE
FORCING WILL SQUEEZE OUT THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE. THE LAST BIT OF
MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH AND GRADUALLY WARM THIS
MORNING OVER THE BIG HORNS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT THROUGH NOON...WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET. FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SHOW SHOULD COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. FOG COULD BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AS AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND PUT PATCHY FOG FROM ROUNDUP
TO RED LODGE AND LOCATIONS EAST. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IS ADVECTED IN. EXPECT AN EVEN WARMER DAY IN THE UPPER 60S.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL PUT
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SPORADIC. DOBBS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
SOLVING A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW ALOFT INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER LOW
DROPPING TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LOW
NORTH RIGHT OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE
MUCH WETTER AND DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE UPPER DOWN IN THE DESERT BUT HAS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES SHOW
A WIDE SPREAD ACROSS THE BOARD FOR EACH MODEL. RMOP /RELATIVE
MEASURE OF PREDICTABILLITY/ NUMBERS AREA QUITE LOW OVER OUR REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. SO WILL STICK TO A BLEND TO REDUCE RISK OF BIG
BUST. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ARE LIKELY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL INCLUDING KSHR AND KMLS...AND ALONG THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AROUND RED LODGE. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
W/NW OF KBIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. LOOK FOR SURFACE
VISIBILITIES TO BECOME PRIMARILY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CEILINGS TO BECOME PRIMARILY VFR TO MVFR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 039/071 042/078 048/082 049/072 047/062 041/056
6/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 43/W 33/W
LVM 062 037/072 039/077 042/081 042/071 040/061 037/055
2/W 10/U 01/U 00/U 13/T 44/W 44/W
HDN 053 035/071 036/079 040/082 042/074 042/066 038/057
4/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 33/W 32/W
MLS 054 038/068 039/077 044/081 045/071 045/065 040/056
2/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
4BQ 047 035/067 035/075 042/081 044/073 044/067 040/057
2/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
BHK 050 034/067 036/074 042/077 041/065 041/060 038/054
2/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 33/W
SHR 049 031/064 033/074 037/079 040/073 041/064 037/057
4/W 21/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 33/W 33/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Persistent areas of light rain have plagued northeast Oklahoma much
of Today as strong isentropic lift and a mid-level shortwave easing
across the area have combined forces to wring the plentiful moisture
out of the air. The HRRR has this activity breaking down over the next
few hours in advance of the next round of showers and thunderstorms.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into
eastern Oklahoma later this evening as the upper level low that has been
stuck over the Rockies finally begins to move off to the east. This activity
is expected to be east and south of the forecast area by sunrise on Wednesday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as a secondary upper level low scoots across the area. The best
chances of showers and thunderstorms will be south of Interstate 40.The chances
of showers and thunderstorms end Thursday evening as a storm system finally
moves east of the area.
High pressure aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the weekend
providing dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms return early next week with the approach of the next storm
system.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 54 72 52 74 / 90 10 20 20
FSM 60 75 56 76 / 60 60 20 20
MLC 58 74 53 73 / 80 30 30 30
BVO 51 72 48 75 / 90 10 20 20
FYV 54 71 49 72 / 60 50 20 20
BYV 54 72 51 74 / 40 50 20 20
MKO 57 74 52 74 / 80 30 20 20
MIO 55 72 51 74 / 80 30 20 20
F10 57 72 53 73 / 80 20 20 20
HHW 61 75 57 73 / 70 50 30 40
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
318 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO MARCH EWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AT A
PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE SOURCE REGION FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
THAT HAD BEEN ANCHORED IN ERN NM IS SHIFTING TO THE WRN SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS ADJUSTEMENT OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER NRN NM SHOWING EWD MOVEMENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA AROUND 06Z WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ERN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA APPROPRIATE UNTIL THEN. COULD ALSO SEE A SHIFT SWD WITH THE
CONVECTION AS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SRN SOUTH
AND ROLLING PLAINS PER HRRR OUTPUT.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO PRECIP CHANCE WEDNESDAY. APPEARS A DECENTLY
DEFINED DRYLINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO ITS EAST WITH SFC DEW POINT
TEMPS UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S. NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT EVIDENT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO SEWD THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW FROM SRN
COLORADO TWD THE PANHANDLE. WEAKLY FORCED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE GENERALLY ALONG I-27.
ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS CHANCE FOR FOG AROUND SUNRISE. COOL...MOIST AIR
MASS WITH UPSLOPE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY.
NO CONSENUS FROM GUIDANCE ATTM. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND
LET NEXT SHIFT REEVALUATE.
.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LIFT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HIGHLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.
WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS WILL BE OVER 1 INCH
THE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH TO HELP MITIGATE FLOODING
CONCERNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S. WINDS WILL TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS. THIS...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE LEE
TROF WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD STARTING LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING A
DRYLINE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM NM. A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...MOSTLY OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS...SUNDAY BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS THE MID TO LOWER
LEVELS DRY AND THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SUPER ADIABATIC. CONDITIONS
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY BECOME QUESTIONABLE AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE TO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO KEEP BLOWING WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MORE PACIFIST ROLE BY
KEEPING FLOW MOSTLY ZONAL AND DELAYING THE APPROACH OF THE LOW UNTIL
EARLY WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AT 245PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BEGINNING OFF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND UP THROUGH THE BIG BEND
AREA. FARTHER EAST INTO OUR CWA...STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE WHICH HAS BEEN LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER STILL WITH A FEW HOURS OF HEATING LEFT IN THE DAY...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE WESTERN PLATEAU COUNTIES...LIKE VAL VERDE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON THE PLATEAU ARE SUB 6 DEG/KM PER THE RAP HOWEVER AND WITH
SUPERCELL STORM MOTION VECTORS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PARALLEL TO
THE RIVER AND APPRECIABLE CONVECTION INHIBITION FARTHER
EAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORMS IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SOME CELLS MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE GENERATED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
THIS CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND NORTH IS BEING PRETTY WELL
HANDLED IN THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE
INDICATING CONGLOMERATING INTO A QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM OR BROKEN
LINE OF MULTI CELLS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MORE SPECIFICALLY THE 4AM-10AM TIME FRAME.
THE LINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PASS THROUGH AT A DECENT
SPEED...ENOUGH TO TYPICALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IN FACT...PWATS AT 12Z ARE ONLY IN THE 1.4 INCH RANGE IN
THE AUSTIN AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WISE...THAT GENERALLY AROUND
AN INCH OR SO WILL RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE.
HOWEVER...WHILE ISOLATED...THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS THAT GET 3
INCHES OR SO WHICH WOULD BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC FOR COUNTIES IN THE
EAST WHICH RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN FROM YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE THE DECISION TO MAINTAIN A FFA EAST OF I35 WAS MADE FOR
THOSE HIGHLY VULNERABLE ANTECEDENT COUNTIES SPECIFICALLY...WHILE
OTHER COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE BIG UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF OUR RAIN
ACTIVITY LATELY WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE REGION INTO A NORTHWEST
FLOW SITUATION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES YET AGAIN.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE QPF REPLACING THE AIR MASS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FRIDAY. A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT POP
OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 79 65 79 60 / 50 60 30 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 79 64 79 59 / 50 60 30 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 80 64 80 61 / 40 60 30 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 62 78 57 / 50 40 30 40 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 83 66 85 62 / 40 30 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 78 63 78 58 / 50 60 30 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 65 84 61 / 40 30 30 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 65 79 60 / 50 60 30 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 78 65 79 61 / 50 60 30 50 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 81 66 81 63 / 40 50 30 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 67 82 63 / 40 40 30 40 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION...SEEING ISOLATED SHRA ALONG AND EAST OF A LBX TO
IAH LINE. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SEE SHRA
COVERAGE EXPAND AND ISO TSRA DEVELOPING AROUND 20Z. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF TSRA TOMORROW MORNING
MOVING EAST ACROSS SE TX DURING THE 9Z TO 18Z PD. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING...BUT WORTHY OF A PROB30 ATTM. WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO
WED AM. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. AT 9 AM A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SE TX FROM THE SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS SYSTEM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND GALVESTON BAY.
SCATTERED CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER INLAND MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NEAR THE COAST AND POINTS WEST.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
AVIATION...
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND AROUND CLL AND UTS WITH SOME MVFR DECKS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE MIGHT END
UP BEING BETWEEN IAH AND GLS. ANTICIPATE A BREAK TONIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE LOWERING OF AREA CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
IFR LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TODAY...
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A LONG MORNING ON THE WARNING DESK YESTERDAY...BACK AT THE
FORECAST DESK ONE MORE TIME. AREA RADAR ARE RATHER QUIET COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
OVERALL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO COLLEGE
STATION OVER TO HUNTSVILLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 70
DEWPOINTS JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY STILL ADVECT INLAND DESPITE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. VAD WIND PROFILES AT THE KHGX 88D SHOW
30-35KTS JUST 2000-5000FT AGL VEERING FROM S TO SW WHICH SUGGESTS
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ALOFT LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WHILE A RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SEEM ON TRACK WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TODAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT AS
NOTED WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE...COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
WEEK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD BE ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT. IT IS
HARD TO TELL IF THE MODELS ARE RESOLVING ANY OF THESE FEATURES OR
NOT. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND
THEN INLAND. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ALONG A
BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. WRF-ARW HAS A HINT OF THIS
AS WELL BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED. RIGHT NOW THINK A GENERAL 40-60
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. JUST WORRIED THAT IF SOME OF THESE STORMS GET A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED THEN WE WILL SEE RAIN RATES BACK IN THE 1-2 INCH AN HOUR
RANGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES. BASED ON UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO A LOCALIZED SPOT OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FOR THIS REASON WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE GFS/NAM AND THEN HIGH RES WRF MODELS WANT TO BRING A
SQUALL LINE/MCS INTO SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES GOING UP TO 1.8 INCHES WITH S/SW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND 20-30KTS. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND MAY BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE RAINFALL. HATE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT AT
LEAST ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH OBVIOUSLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 78 66 79 60 / 40 70 40 50 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 78 67 81 63 / 40 70 40 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 76 70 78 68 / 30 60 30 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1214 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
COMBINED WITH A STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST NIGHT`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 05Z THIS
EVENING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER 16Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY HAS DECREASED AS
06Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA STABILIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE TAFS. MFE HAS RECENTLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY LIFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITE WILL BE VFR TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY BEHIND A WAKE LOW FROM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS. TONIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 8-10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
CLEARED THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED WAKE LOW DEVELOPED AND DROVE WINDS
UP AS IT DEPARTED OFF THE COAST. WIND GUSTS REACHED 52 KNOTS AT
VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 47 KNOTS AT BROWNSVILLE SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER AND
STABILIZED PER THE HRRR AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE MORNING.
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL DO THE SAME AND WEAKEN AS IT MAKES IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PERTURBATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SHOULD KICK OFF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT 30/40 POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON LOCATIONS OF PRECIPITATION SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW SIDE TODAY CONCERNING PRECIPITATION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
GET STARTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RESIDES THEN DEVELOP INLAND AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 TROUGH FINALLY
OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
RELEASES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY ALOFT IS DECREASED...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...FURTHER STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A FEW SEABREEZE TYPE
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED. SATURDAY THE
NEXT H5 TROUGH COMES ASHORE AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD INSTABILITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. WITH GULF MOISTURE STILL IN THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER
SATURDAY...MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT H5
TROUGH...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOWERED.
IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THIS CURRENT WET REGIME.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SSE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 7 FEET
WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42020 EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERN FRINGES OF
OVERNIGHT MCS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS OF
THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AS THIS
AREA PASSES BY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TODAY WITH LONG
FETCH OF EASTERLY WAVES KEEPING SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 7 FEET. SCA IS
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS AND DIMINISHING
SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
$$
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