Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/18/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 16/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR MOSAIC FROM
AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE INHERITED POP FORECAST SHOWS THIS
NOTION...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.
BOTH THE RED FLAG WARNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER.
AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A
TEMP OF 68 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83
DEGS...WHICH WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. INHERITED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK...BUT WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW RECENT TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
SWLY SFC WIND DIMINISHING AFT AROUND 16/06Z TO 8 TO 12 KTS. FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ESP N TO NE OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD. ISOLD
-SHRA/-SHSN NE OF KSAD AFT 16/06Z. WLY/NWLY SFC WIND INCREASING
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...ESP NEAR THE NM BORDER INCLUDING KSAD/KDUG.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FT WINDS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA. THEREAFTER...20-FT WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT
MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND
AREA WIDE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COLDER PROTECTED SPOTS
OF COCHISE COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DRY NW FLOW MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 90S IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LOW DESERT AREAS.
MODELS HINTING AT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH IS OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
918 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
ATTENTION REMAINS CENTERED ON THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. PAST FEW HOURS THIS
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SHIFTED SOUTH FROM JUST NORTH OF EAGLE TO
ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR ASPEN. WHILE THIS DISPLACEMENT IS
RELATIVELY SMALL...THIS HAS CAUSED THE 550-400 MB FLOW TO TURN A
SHADE MORE SELY WHICH HAS CAUSED MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO NERN COLORADO/SERN WYOMING. DENVER AND CHEYENNE RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG
THE LARAMIE AND FRONT RANGES PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE A LOW-LEVEL
N-NWLY FLOW IS HELPING TO MOVE PRECIP OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. HRRR AND RAP SMALL SCALE MODELS SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH FROM LONGMONT NORTHWARD
TO FT COLLINS AND GREELEY WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...PRECIP MAY BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOOTHILL AREAS
WILL BE CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. ITS POSSIBLE
WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON A LOCAL BASIS OVER THE
FRONT RANGE BY 07Z OR 08Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED EVENING
POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. NEXT...HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG ON THE
PLAINS MAINLY ACRS ERN BOULDER...SWRN WELD...BROOMFIELD AND
NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS NENR
DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALL DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW CLOUD DESK PARTIALLY
CLEARS LATE TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE MODEL INDICATE. DON`T SEE THIS
FOG LINGERING IN THE DENVER AREA TO FAR BEYOND SUNRISE WITH
FORMATION OF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND
IS FCST TO RETROGRADE INTO NWRN CO/SWRN WY OVERNIGHT. CROSS-
SECTIONS STILL SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
DENVER TO THE WY BORDER. IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL. BY LATE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
NNW HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE UP TO 700 MB. THUS EXPECT QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.
ON MON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NWRN
CO/SWRN WY. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER BY LATE AFTN. WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE IN THE MTNS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY EARLY AFTN. BY LATE AFTN WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF
SHSN IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER
THE PLAINS WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS
READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NERN CO WITH A FEW LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS WHERE VERY LITTLE SNOW OCCURRED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER CIRCULATION ANYWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CENTER IS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IT STAYS
THERE ALL TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
...THEN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW SOME UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN AFTER THAT CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SURGE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PROGGED WEDNESDAY...THEN DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT
QUITE A BIT...JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA FOR THE LATE DAY PERIODS MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL MINOR VALUES. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LATE
DAY TUESDAY...MORE SO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE QPF
FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...THE
BEST SHOT...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVEN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH 30-60%S MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EAST
CWA. THEN LATE DAY TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
20-50% POPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EAST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS COME UP 2-4 C MORE FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TIMING IS STILL
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER WAY NORTH OVER MONTANA...WHILE THE GFS
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME
UPPER RIDGING ON THE ECMWF BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ON
THE GFS. POOR AGREEMENT STILL WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING WITH HIGH POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
COULD SEE 2000-3000 FT AGL CIGS IN THE DENVER AREA PERIODICALLY
LOWERING TO BELOW 1500 FT AGL THROUGH 07Z WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS. ITS MORE LIKELY THIS WILL HAPPEN IN
AREAS WEST OF I-25 SUCH AS AT KBJC AND ALSO AT KAPA. ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE LIGHT. SO VSBYS PRIOR TO 07Z SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3
MILES. AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK
COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DENVER
AREA. COULD SEE LOCAL VSBYS UNDER 3 MILES TOWARDS DAWN. MOST IF
NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE DISSIPATION OF THIS FOG BY 14Z TO 15Z/MON.
WHILE CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
EVENING. THE STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...ANCHORED ON BOTH
SIDES BY LARGE CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE WE
ARE PROTECTED UNDER THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE NOW SHIFTED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS PER
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN FROM THE NORTH IS NOW FULLY IN CONTROL OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
(FOR THE LAND ZONES)...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL
MIXING ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES IN THE FORECAST.
STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF I-4 MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY...WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY...AND PERHAPS A NEXT DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS INCREASING BACK BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DECREASE IN THE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD THEN PREVENT HEADLINE CRITERIA
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 80 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 61 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 54 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 64 82 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...
.UPDATE...EVENING CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM
JUST ABOVE 850 MBS INTO THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.73 INCHES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 750 MILES
OFF THE NC COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
KEEP BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 18Z GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY
SLIGHTLY MORE QPF LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC WITH HRRR MODEL
INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT FROM BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND. SENT EARLY ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE RIP CURRENT/LAKE WIND
HEADLINES. LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 60 INTERIOR TO MID TO SOME UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST AND BEACHES FROM THE CAPE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. SCT TO LVL BKN 040-050 CIGS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA FCST TO APPROACH THE COAST FROM KTIX-KSUA
05Z-08Z AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIGHT WITH WITH PROBS LESS THAN 30 HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...SEAS THIS EVENING RUNNING AROUND 8 FT AT BUOY 41009 AND 6-7
FT NEAR SHORE. NE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
SEAS ELEVATED WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NC COAST.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON
THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY
SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
301 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU
LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT
WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE
BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND
AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO
TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW
60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
FINE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT...BACKING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE FOR ORD/MDW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE COLUMN IS STILL RATHER DRY...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FAIR WEATHER
VFR CU IN THE 5500-7500 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST
OF CHICAGO.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
123 AM CDT
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE
COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE.
NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN
THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE
SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area
clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus
development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing
through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already
approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor
upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings
possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S.
will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high
thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at
times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with
peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s
values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper
70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast
most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered
over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico.
Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will
be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas
north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday
with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while
550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts
northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep
central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of
sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during
Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with
increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of
I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s.
Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed
afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper
level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best
chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night
as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the
upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours. Some scattered
cumulus has started to develop just northeast of KPIA, and HRRR
shows some expansion across the TAF sites early this afternoon,
but only scattered in nature. These will fade with sunset, leaving
clear skies once again. Southeast winds will prevail during the
period, close to 10 knots this afternoon and again toward late
Sunday morning, settling down a bit at night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON
THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY
SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
301 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU
LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT
WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE
BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND
AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO
TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW
60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION
AND SPEED WILL BE A VERY NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH A
LAKE BREEZE BUMPING SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY...A FEW
VFR CUMULUS MAY ACTUALLY BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
123 AM CDT
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE
COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE.
NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN
THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE
SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1001 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area
clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus
development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing
through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already
approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor
upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings
possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S.
will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high
thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at
times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with
peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s
values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper
70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast
most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered
over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico.
Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will
be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas
north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday
with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while
550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts
northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep
central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of
sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during
Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with
increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of
I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s.
Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed
afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper
level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best
chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night
as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the
upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered
afternoon cloud cover around 6-7 kft expected, with otherwise
clear or high thin cirrus sky conditions. Winds E-SE 5-12 kts
through the period, with occasional higher gusts in the afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on
Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower
mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for
now.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the
south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
720 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY
83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH
POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT
FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY
REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH
06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...
MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS
WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML
AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND
CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT
DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN
THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND
LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL
ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE
SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS
ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS
WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE
700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY
CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL
AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED
IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR
LIQUID.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND
TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
AROUND 80.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4
CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND
MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. CEILINGS FCST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT OVC035 BY
18Z MONDAY. AT KVTN...MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME IFR NEAR OVC007 BY 06Z AND REMAIN IFR UNTIL 14Z MONDAY.
AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR -RA
AS WELL MAINLY UNTIL 09Z MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED
BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY
SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED
CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A
SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW
AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND
40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST
AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA
VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED
IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE
RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND
700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW
SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO
MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A
DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN
NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY
AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO
STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT
BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF
THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS.
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND
DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW
FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM
UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S
BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED...AND VISBY WILL BE REDUCED DURING HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY AFFECT
KLBF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY FROM KMCK TO KANW AND WEST...WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KONL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY
DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES
LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND
EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS
ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL
BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN
A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE
CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH
THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT
0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3
HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED
OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT
MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME.
HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF
ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A
VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY
CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL
RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END
RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS
FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH
THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST
THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA.
MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO
COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA.
AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING
THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WITH SUCH AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A STRONG FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TIMING THE ONSET AND
EXIT OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDING CAMS...HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SEVERAL WAVES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE PRECIP. BEST
MID LEVEL FORCING CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
GOOD MID LEVEL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN
KS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW ANCHORED FURTHER WEST...THE NWD
MOVEMENT OF NEWLY DEVELOPED AND ORGANZIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL
BE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE
RAINING CONSTANTLY. FCST MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SEWD SLOWLY TODAY
AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO NWRLY OR NRLY AND INCREASE.
CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO MAIN LINES WHICH WILL
ROTATE UP TO THE N THEN NW BY MOST MODELS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
THE TAF LOCATIONS IN IFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN LIFR AT TIMES WHEN
HEAVIEST RAIN IS OCCURRING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT
RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2
MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO
NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS
HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH
THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT
0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3
HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED
OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT
MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME.
HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF
ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A
VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY
CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL
RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END
RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS
FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH
THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST
THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA.
MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO
COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA.
AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING
THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR
BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT
RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2
MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO
NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS
HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR
BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MESSY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ONE MORE DAY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND
ACROSS EC/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO
POTENTIALLY 40 KT AT TCC/ROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER DURING THE
EVE ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PUSH CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE NE THIRD
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVE HRS.
CANT RULE OUT SOME TS IMPACTS ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT
TOO STABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AEG/ABQ. WILL BE MONITORING THAT
TREND. CURRENTLY HAVE TS IN FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES. PRECIP WONT
TURN OFF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. THIS
MEANS LOW CIG AND PERHAPS SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO NEAR
SATURDAY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM.
SOME -SN THIS MORNING AT KGUP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS
AFTN...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KROW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT LIKELY. A BACK DOOR FRONT
NOW OVER NE/EC NM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW CROSSING. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY DROP FROM 6-7K FT FROM N
CENTRAL TO NW AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE N MTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE W CENTRAL AND CHUSKA MTS. MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS/SHRA LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY E OF THE CONTDVD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVEL LIFTS ABOVE 8K FT. MORE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN IS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND W INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER NEAR 6500 FT ACROSS N CENTRAL AREAS
AGAIN.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 52 31 55 33 / 60 30 40 30
DULCE........................... 49 25 52 29 / 70 30 70 50
CUBA............................ 46 27 50 30 / 60 50 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 47 26 53 26 / 60 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 45 24 50 25 / 70 30 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 49 26 52 27 / 60 30 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 52 27 53 31 / 60 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 64 33 64 36 / 20 10 10 10
CHAMA........................... 44 20 45 25 / 80 50 80 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 29 49 33 / 60 50 60 50
PECOS........................... 51 28 49 31 / 60 50 60 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 24 46 26 / 70 60 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 40 21 38 24 / 80 70 60 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 22 41 25 / 70 70 60 50
TAOS............................ 47 25 48 27 / 60 50 50 30
MORA............................ 47 25 45 29 / 60 70 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 55 29 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 50 28 51 31 / 50 50 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 30 53 33 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 35 55 37 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 38 58 40 / 30 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 34 59 35 / 30 20 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 34 59 35 / 40 20 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 38 61 39 / 30 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 36 58 38 / 40 30 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 60 37 63 40 / 30 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 30 51 33 / 50 40 50 50
TIJERAS......................... 52 32 54 35 / 40 40 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 27 54 31 / 30 30 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 51 31 / 30 30 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 31 55 34 / 20 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 34 60 37 / 10 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 54 34 / 10 10 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 46 28 45 28 / 70 60 40 30
RATON........................... 48 29 47 28 / 70 60 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 50 28 49 29 / 50 50 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 28 49 30 / 50 50 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 55 34 54 35 / 60 30 30 30
ROY............................. 56 32 53 33 / 40 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 63 36 61 36 / 30 30 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 36 61 37 / 20 30 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 38 63 38 / 30 20 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 69 39 63 39 / 20 10 20 30
PORTALES........................ 70 40 64 40 / 10 10 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 39 64 40 / 10 10 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 74 43 69 44 / 5 5 10 20
PICACHO......................... 66 37 62 39 / 5 5 20 20
ELK............................. 59 34 58 36 / 5 5 20 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NM505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DOMINATES THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LONG STRETCH OF FINE SPRING WEATHER
WITH SUNSHINE AND STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOOK FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TO RETURN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WITH
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND TAKING
ON AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A FEW DEGREES C WARMER AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY SO THE FORECAST WILL ESSENTIALLY BE AN ADJUSTED
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID 60S
NORTH COUNTRY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITHIN A
MILE OR TWO OF THE LAKE. THAT SAME NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVENT ANY
LAKE INFLUENCE IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
ALSO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO CAPTURE
ITS PROGRESSION FAIRLY WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR
AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY THAT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST
925MB TEMPERATURES SEEN YET (+12/+13C) IN THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL DAYS. THUS SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND...
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION FAVORING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WIND. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR
THE STRONGEST LAKE BREEZE PUSH INTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORELINE DOWN IN THE 50S FOR
HIGHS.
ON MONDAY... A BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES...
AS A WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA... SUPPRESSING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOW 70S IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING... SPARKING OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. TROUGHING
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FEW DIURNAL &
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE
TROUGH...OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER BACK IN
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
FINALLY DIRT EASTWARD AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE WITH EJECTING CUT-OFF LOWS... MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK... SO STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
OUR WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 15Z TAF AMD. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING
THIS FLOW A BIT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LAKE
BREEZE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH TAFS REFLECTING THIS
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 12 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH WAVES UNDER 2 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXPECT
TRUE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A DRY AND STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
OCCURRING WITH AND BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
855 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL A
CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
AERODROMES...BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KISN WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS A RISE BACK TO VFR
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN AT KJMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SHORT TERM UPDATED WITH THE TIME LAGGED HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR POPS
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.
SMOOTH THE POPS WITH RADAR LOOPS AS GUIDE.
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SHALLOW COOL WEDGE OF AIR POOLING TO THE
WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME SLEET POTENTIAL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP RAIN=SNOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS
TO BE JUST A BRIEF PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 18 UTC AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC
GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN
REGARDING HOW WELL WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON WARM GROUND AND
ROADS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF SOUNDINGS AT DICKINSON AND MINOT FROM
THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RAP ITERATIONS AVAILABLE AS OF 0230
UTC...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST FOR A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY
MORNING...POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A BLEND OF THE 21 UTC BIAS
CORRECTED HIGH RESOLUTION SUITE AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
30S. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER AND WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE WARM
GROUND AND ROADWAYS. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...FOR
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER...ARCHING THROUGH DICKINSON...KILLDEER AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
MODEL ITERATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
A WET AND INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
RAIN...SNOW...AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS
TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POCKET OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK CAPE AND
SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING SEVERE.
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GET GOING. THIS
WILL WANE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY. A STRONG 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO +9C IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW RIDING
NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SOUTHWEST...AND PARTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT
THREE HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW AT DICKINSON SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT
ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE FROST POINT EXCEEDING
THE TEMPERATURE WITHIN A SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH RESPECT
TO ICE. ALL THIS POINTS TO POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WPC AND RAPID CITY WFO...WE DECIDED ON ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SNOW LIKELY WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM/GFS
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN...SHIFTING IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE WESTERN BORDER...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE WESTERN
EDGE INTO DICKINSON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXIST FOR FAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY...MAINLY LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ATOP A LOW LEVEL 35KT 850MB JET
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A COUPLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SEEN WITHIN THE EMBEDDED
FLOW. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW
WORKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A
700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z
SATURDAY...AND MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELD AND
850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-18Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST AND NORTH..AND RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE ABOVE CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MOISTURE POOLING INTO THIS AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS. THE LOW FINALLY
GETS KICKED OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SIMILAR
PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF A WET PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL ENVELOPE ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK SATURDAY MORNING THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KMOT. KISN WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND BUT
MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LOW VIS IN SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-018-019-
021-032-033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT 04Z FROM
JUST WEST OF ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO ABOUT MAYVILLE-HILLSBORO TO
NEAR VALLEY CITY. IT CONTINUES ON A GOOD PACE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
GET THROUGH FARGO BUT EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR A
WARROAD TO FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO THEN BACK INTO FAR SE
CORNER OF ND SATURDAY MORNING. ISSUE IS RAIN AREA MOVING
NORTH...IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO QPF
FCST. INCOMING 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DRY SLOT INTO MUCH OF
THE RRV AND NW/WCNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
MAIN HEAVY RAIN AREA SITS UP IN CNTRL AND WRN ND. HRRR SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF FARGO
NORTHEAST TOWARD FOSSTON-BAGLEY. DID TWEEK GRIDDS FOR A BIT BETTER
TEMP GRADIENT USING HRRR AND TWEEKED POPS/WX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT SO A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ND AND ASSOCIATED SHRA ACROSS THE FA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM S CENTRAL ND ARCING NE TO
THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES PUSH THIS BOUNDARY A
BIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SW-NE
BY MORNING. INITIALLY FA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY EVENING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN BUT PROPAGATE NNE AND RIDE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
EXPECTED BOUNDARY. JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL DETERMINE
BEST LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
WITH SHOWALTERS AROUND ZERO AND A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLD T. WITH SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXPECTED PCPN
WILL SEE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
HINGING ON BOUNDARY SET UP.
UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA ALSO SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT BEING
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING ON COLD SIDE
OF TROUGH AND IMPULSES EJECTING NNE FROM UPPER LOW COULD SEE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. MODELS
DID TREND A BIT WEST WITH PCPN SHIELD HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE WESTERN FA/DVL BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY BY SUNDAY AM COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 1-2 INCHES. PCPN
LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA AND AGAIN WILL SEE A
SHARP THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
EXPECTING PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH
LOSES DEFINITION AND DRIER E-NW FLOW SETS UP AND SURFACE HIGH
NOSES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST OF GREENLAND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE
NORTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND DEEPENS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATES. THE GFS WAS
THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE
MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE AND WED. HIGH TEMPS THU
WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO AND FRI TEMPS WEE INCREASED THREE OR
FOUR DEGREES IN THE SOUTH AND DECREASED ZERO TO SIX DEGREES IN THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
COMPLICATED TAF/AVIATION FCST. ALL DEPENDS ON FRONTAL LOCATION.
GOING WITH IDEA OF FRONT SATURDAY MORNING STALLING OUT NR A
WARROAD-FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO. THAT WOULD BE ALL BUT
BEMIDJI IN THE NORTH WIND AND IFR-MVFR CIGS. BEMIDJI WOULD STAY
VFR. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...BEST BET FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
DEVILS LAKE. LOOK FOR A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ESP
DVL REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS OR MAYBE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
DAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM.
ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR
GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER
600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND
720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS
LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM
AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON.
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE
DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK
REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM.
AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS
OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
AVIATION...
1612/1712 TAFS...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR
FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ
INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE
PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY
MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S
STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH
TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE
THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90
HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80
GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60
PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90
DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM.
ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR
GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER
600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND
720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS
LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM
AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON.
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE
DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK
REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM.
AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS
OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
AVIATION...
1612/1712 TAFS...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR
FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ
INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE
PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY
MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S
STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH
TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE
THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90
HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80
GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60
PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90
DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW...KCDS IS NOW MVFR AFTER
SPENDING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY IFR. SHOWERS WEST OF KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD REMAIN OUT SIDE THE RANGE FOR VICINITY OR OVER THE
TERMINALS THEMSELVES. MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE
INCLUDING ANYTHING GIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH TO
SEE IF A STRAY SHOWER COULD IMPACT KPVW OR KLBB.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH A
FEW PERIODS OF IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE CURRENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING LOW CONFIDENCE
IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY RANGES BECAUSE OF MAJOR DIFFERENCES...
ONE MODEL SHOWING VLIFR AT KPVW AND KLBB WITH THE OTHER SHOWING
MVFR OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR
RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST
LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM
MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS
THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
/AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK.
CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT
KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN
THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.
THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN
SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR
HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS
WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS
HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA
THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.
ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF
0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS
COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE
ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA
LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD
BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND
SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH
NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES. /29
LONG TERM...
THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE
ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW.
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING
CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY
LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE
MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY
GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM
AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL
BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM
PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY.
SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST.
/05 RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS...DIPPING INTO IFR AT TIMES...WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RIVER AND MOVE INTO
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SEEING DEFINITIVE COVERAGE AT THE TAF
SITES. TAFS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LOW KEY ON CONVECTIVE MENTION
FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER
CO WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SW FLOW
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SE FLOW
AT 850MB CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KBRO SHOWS AN INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WHILE STRONG INVERSION IS IN PLACE
ABV 850MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST WITH A NORTH MOVEMENT PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS.
BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND NEAR 90 OUT WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE WITH
LESS CLOUDS.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS TRAP UNDER THE INVERSION.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER END AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST MON INTO TUE AS THE BOUNDARY FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY ADVANCES E. THIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THIS CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF INCH TO 2 IN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER
STORMS. COULD ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 90S WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION INTO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW. 12Z MODEL PACKAGE ARE IN GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE TYPE FLOW
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES AND RIDGES
BECOME AN ISSUE.
THE OVERALL TREND FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY WITH TEXAS STILL BE BEING INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LOW
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NW-W-SW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PIN POINTS TROUGHS IMPACTING OUR CWA
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ON THOSE DAYS.
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THESE FEATURES KEEP SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE GENERAL TREND FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HELP RAMP UP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MARINE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL
REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
MAY BE NEEDED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IF WINDS RAMP UP FASTER.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS AND RIDGES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN BENIGN WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BECOMING BRIEFLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THE REST OF
THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYTIME.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S
OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS.
STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS
CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS
OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM
BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL
RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL
ACRS THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX.
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT.
AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS
APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT
SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL
GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER
VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE
WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG
NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE
FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW-
LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH
TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE
SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR
IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE
NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO
IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS
RATHER LOW.
THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO
THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN LATER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS AT RHI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS TAF SITE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING RHI AND GRB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO.
COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY
...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S
OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS.
STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS
CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS
OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM
BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL
RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL
ACRS THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX.
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT.
AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS
APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT
SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL
GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER
VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE
WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG
NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE
FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW-
LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH
TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE
SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR
IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE
NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO
IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS
RATHER LOW.
THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO
THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN LATER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ALONG A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE FRONT. COVERAGE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT RHI AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING RHI AND GRB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO.
COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY
...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF
SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF
55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO
AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND
CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E.
THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH
DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE
LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK
NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS
AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO
ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN
MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING
HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK A TAD HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE
SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL
IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS
SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT
POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO.
SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST
POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY.
THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR
LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE
TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS
STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR
TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN
AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD
EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
128 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
NORTHEAST WINDS...AT TIMES BECOMING GUSTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016/
UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
EVENING. THE STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS WITH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...ANCHORED ON BOTH
SIDES BY LARGE CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE WE
ARE PROTECTED UNDER THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE NOW SHIFTED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS PER
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN FROM THE NORTH IS NOW FULLY IN CONTROL OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT
(FOR THE LAND ZONES)...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL
MIXING ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES IN THE FORECAST.
STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF I-4 MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY...WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY...AND PERHAPS A NEXT DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DECREASE IN THE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY
LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD THEN PREVENT HEADLINE CRITERIA
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 63 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 84 61 84 61 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 80 60 83 61 / 10 0 0 10
SRQ 83 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 81 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 82 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS
SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850-
600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW.
TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED
TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN
LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER
FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN
LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE
CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E
SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH
THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU.
FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH
SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID
50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA
RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS
ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TNGT WITH LLVL DRY DOMINATING. BUT AS
COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES N-S LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN...
EXPECT MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP UNDER SHARPENING
LLVL INVRN. THE IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL NE
FLOW WL PRESENT A GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR TOWARD 19/00Z WL RESULT IN CLRG SKIES AT CMX AND TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SAW/IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL)
STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION
STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
329 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over
the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered
from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed
well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to
increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern
U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer
to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase
in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently
stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should
increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association
with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow
eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a
preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and
central MO.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while
to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave
trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft.
The combination of these short waves and the presence of the
somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will
maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on
Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus
and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east
Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress
into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the
trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by
Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA
and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof
passage.
An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley
during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds
of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as
the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances
will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the
low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an
inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light
enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain
event for gardening and agriculture.
For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and
western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and
storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level
jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations
could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to
the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in
rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into
northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from
the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to
produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few
storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in
the wake of rain from earlier.
A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and
become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning.
This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms
focused further east across northern and central MO through this
time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as
the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the
east of the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds
of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as
the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances
will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the
low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an
inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light
enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain
event for gardening and agriculture.
For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and
western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and
storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level
jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations
could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to
the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in
rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into
northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from
the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to
produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few
storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in
the wake of rain from earlier.
A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and
become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning.
This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms
focused further east across northern and central MO through this
time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as
the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the
east of the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Welsh
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
...Much Needed Rainfall On The Way For The Missouri Ozarks
Region...Wet and Unsettled Weather Through Mid Week
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s
update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low
pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving
up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our
first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into
southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of
Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception
of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain
move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a
decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before
the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring
the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally
brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected.
Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late
Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to
move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some
leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of
the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on
by and drier air moves in.
There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today
through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2
inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2
and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened
up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal.
Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and
streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting
any major issues.
Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the
way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are
possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor
activities around the Missouri Ozarks!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on
Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower
mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for
now.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the
south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY
83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH
POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT
FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY
REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH
06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...
MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS
WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML
AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND
CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT
DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN
THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND
LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL
ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE
SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS
ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS
WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE
700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY
CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL
AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED
IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR
LIQUID.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND
TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
AROUND 80.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4
CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND
MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. CEILINGS FCST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT BKN035
OVC060 BY 18Z MONDAY. AT KVTN...IFR CEILING NEAR OVC009 SHOULD
REMAIN IFR UNTIL 14Z MONDAY. AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST.
-RA WILL ALSO REMAIN SCATTERED OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
KLBF AND KVTN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED
BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY
SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED
CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SFC OBS AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOWS MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WITH IFR AT TIMES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND CONTINUANCE OF THIS TREND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR TAKES THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE BY
11Z WITH THE REST OF THE MORNING REMAINING DRY. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND WITH SHRA THROUGH 10Z. SE WINDS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDS FOR TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY FOR THE TAF SITES LASTING THROUGH MID EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS...DIPPING INTO IFR AT TIMES...WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RIVER AND MOVE INTO
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SEEING DEFINITIVE COVERAGE AT THE TAF
SITES. TAFS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LOW KEY ON CONVECTIVE MENTION
FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER
CO WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SW FLOW
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SE FLOW
AT 850MB CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KBRO SHOWS AN INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WHILE STRONG INVERSION IS IN PLACE
ABV 850MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST WITH A NORTH MOVEMENT PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS.
BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND NEAR 90 OUT WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE WITH
LESS CLOUDS.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS TRAP UNDER THE INVERSION.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER END AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST MON INTO TUE AS THE BOUNDARY FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY ADVANCES E. THIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THIS CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF INCH TO 2 IN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER
STORMS. COULD ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 90S WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION INTO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW. 12Z MODEL PACKAGE ARE IN GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE TYPE FLOW
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES AND RIDGES
BECOME AN ISSUE.
THE OVERALL TREND FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN TUESDAY WITH TEXAS STILL BE BEING INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LOW
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NW-W-SW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PIN POINTS TROUGHS IMPACTING OUR CWA
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ON THOSE DAYS.
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THESE FEATURES KEEP SOME CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE GENERAL TREND FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HELP RAMP UP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MARINE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL
REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY MONDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
MAY BE NEEDED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IF WINDS RAMP UP FASTER.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS AND RIDGES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN BENIGN WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BECOMING BRIEFLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THE REST OF
THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYTIME.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND PRECIPITATION
HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB AND KPVW LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HAVE KEPT
PREVIOUS TIMING IN PLACE FOR KLBB AND KPVW FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
WHEN THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW...KCDS IS NOW MVFR AFTER
SPENDING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY IFR. SHOWERS WEST OF KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD REMAIN OUT SIDE THE RANGE FOR VICINITY OR OVER THE
TERMINALS THEMSELVES. MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE
INCLUDING ANYTHING GIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH TO
SEE IF A STRAY SHOWER COULD IMPACT KPVW OR KLBB.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH A
FEW PERIODS OF IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE CURRENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING LOW CONFIDENCE
IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY RANGES BECAUSE OF MAJOR DIFFERENCES...
ONE MODEL SHOWING VLIFR AT KPVW AND KLBB WITH THE OTHER SHOWING
MVFR OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR
RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
SHORT TERM...
AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST
LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM
MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS
THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
/AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK.
CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT
KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN
THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.
THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN
SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR
HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS
WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS
HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA
THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.
ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF
0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS
COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE
ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA
LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD
BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND
SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH
NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES. /29
LONG TERM...
THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE
ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW.
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING
CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY
LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE
MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY
GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM
AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL
BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM
PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY.
SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST.
/05 RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S
OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS.
STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS
CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS
OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM
BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL
RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL
ACRS THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX.
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT.
AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS
APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT
SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL
GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER
VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE
WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG
NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE
FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW-
LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH
TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE
SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR
IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE
NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO
IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS
RATHER LOW.
THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO
THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFFECTING RHI. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH THE FROPA AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TAF SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR
TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO.
COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY
...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1017 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM TEMPS INLAND AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR
THE SHORELINE THANKS TO SEA BREEZES TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR SOME AND CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1017 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
MOST OF THE RAPIDLY UPDATING GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING
TEMPERATURES WELL...WITH MOST ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO LOW FROM CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. THE LATEST HRRR LOOKED TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
TRENDS...BUT ITS TIMING MIGHT BE AN HOUR TOO FAST. THE HRRR
BRINGS THE SEABREEZE ALL THE WAY WEST PAST WORCESTER THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED WINDS USING THE HRRR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME 50S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD
AND PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN.
PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLOUDS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO
CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS WERE ALL NEARLY SKC...THIS ONE WILL
BE TAINTED BY A FEW CI IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. STILL...SEVERAL OF THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ARE IN THE MID
30S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS COMFORTABLY IN THE LOW 40S.
WITH THESE MINS BEING A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND
PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE BUILDING CI WITH
BREAKS...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN OVER-ACHIEVE TODAY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. H85 TEMPS WILL APPROACH +9C WITH H92 NEAR +12C OVER THE
INTERIOR WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION IS COOLED...BUT MORE ON
THAT BELOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS THAT REACHED THE MID 70S
YESTERDAY TO MAKE A RUN CLOSE TO 80F THANKS TO THE LACK OF
VEGETATION AND ALL INSOLATION BEING USED FOR WARMING.
THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DECENT
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE FRONT...THANKS TO VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH
HIGH PRES CRESTING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED TO START AROUND 14Z
/9AM LOCAL/ AND GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AIDED BY GRADIENT WIND PROFILE SHIFTING FROM E-W THANKS
TO HIGH PRES MOVING E OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...NEAR SHORE
LOCATIONS WILL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE 60S BEFORE COOLING
BEGINS WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD 70F BY MID
DAY BEFORE COOLING AS WELL.
REGARDING THE MARATHON ROUTE...BY THE 9AM PERIOD...AREAS BETWEEN
495 AND 128 SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY MID DAY. AREAS WITHIN 128 INCLUDING THE
BACK BAY FINISH LINE MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID 60S BY MID DAY
BEFORE COOLING BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BY
WHICH TIME TEMPS MAY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S.
NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSE LOW PRES WAVE
WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SHIELD UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WEAK LOW PRES WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY AM HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT NOTING
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OR LESS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS IT PASSES MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE BETWEEN 02Z AND
12Z BEFORE DRIER AIR SPILLS OVER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT LOWS ONLY
IN THE LOW 40S...MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
TOMORROW...
UPPER LVL JET STREAK/S POLEWARD ENTRANCE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT E OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WEAK
LOW PRES WAVE. GRADUAL PRECIP END THROUGH MID MORNING GIVING WAY
TO A FEW SPOTS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DRYING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT BEFORE LOW LVLS FULLY CLEAR.
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION TO SEE CLEARING. H85 TEMPS NEARING +2C WILL
BE NEARLY FULLY MIXED TO IN THE W AS CLEARING OCCURS SO HIGHS
COULD REACH THE MID 60S THERE...MEANWHILE THE E WILL LIKELY ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S THANKS TO LIMITED MIXING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
MOST MOS GUIDANCE TOO WARM IN THE E...SO LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF 2M TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE PATTERN RESOLVES INTO RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL FAVOR A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH AIRMASSES FROM NORTHERN CANADA TRAILING EACH
FRONT. BRIEF WARMUP POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES THAT SUPPORTED SNOW THERE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL OPEN UP MIDWEEK AND EJECT EAST...MERGING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE GFS MORE FULLY PHASES
THE COMBINED SYSTEM WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOWS A LINGERING
SOUTHERN LOBE IN THE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY AS A RESULT THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE OTHERS IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS VERSION WOULD SUGGEST A CLEAN COLD FROPA WHILE THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF VERSION WOULD SUGGEST A TRAILING WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING THE
END OF THE WEEK...THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN IN
QUESTION. WE FAVORED THE SLOWER MORE SELF-CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION...THE GFS IS SOMETHING OF A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. A NORTH
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. THESE ARE NOT EXTREME VALUES PER LOCAL DEW POINT
CLIMATOLOGY BUT LOW ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED DRY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. TEMPS AT 850 MB 0 TO -2C ON WEDNESDAY AND 6-8C ON
THURSDAY SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WEDNESDAY AND
MID 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM THE ROCKIES SPREADS CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. MODEL QPF SHOWS DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS
MEASURABLE QPF IN OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING WHILE THE GGEM AND
ECMWF WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WE FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AT
THIS TIME AND SO ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS TIMING. CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS. COLD FROPA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. ENDING TIME OF POPS
WILL DEPEND ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING LOW ALONG
THE FRONT AS NOTED ABOVE. A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD END POPS
BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE WOULD SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESS
AND DELAY THE END OF POPS UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY. WE WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY...JUST IN THE MORNING N AND W OF I-95.
THIS TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED AS THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS NOTED
EARLIER ARE RESOLVED.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SEA BREEZES ALREADY STARTING. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
EAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST. A SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHES WELL WEST BY LATE TODAY...AND
SHOULD STOP JUST WEST OF KFIT-KORH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING.
SOME MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ORE-ORH-PYM...THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MID MORNING. SHOWERS ENDING
AND SKIES DISSIPATING. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E BACK TO THE N-NW.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...
WINDS GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE E TODAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT AND
BELOW THE 25 KT THRESHOLD. SEAS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT
ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE LET GO BY EVENING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
WEAK LOW PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS...SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A FACTOR. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A SHIFT TO THE N DURING THE DAY ON
TUE. DUE TO THE WEAK PRES FALL AND WINDS...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. THIS MAY BUILD SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT HEIGHTS FRIDAY...BEST
CHANCE ON THE EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SEAS FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...
WINDS LIGHTER STILL TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE E LATE.
HOWEVER...WARMER CONDITIONS AND ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN DEWPOINTS
MEAN MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE TEENS IN CT AND WEST OF
THE WORCESTER HILLS. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG EAST COASTAL
MA AND RI...MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE THANKS TO SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS AS DECIDED YESTERDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE LOW RH VALUES.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TONIGHT
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY. RH VALUES NOT AS LOW ON TUE
EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND SKIES CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE ACROSS WRN MA/CT. MAINLY 30-40 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BY GUSTY OUT OF THE N BY
LATE AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY...REACHING THE 60S AND
AROUND 70 INLAND. WARMING AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LOW RH
VALUES. EXPECT INTERIOR VALUES OF 20-25 PCT WEDNESDAY AND 25-30
PCT THURSDAY. COASTAL VALUES WILL BE 30-45 PCT EACH DAY. THE
DEVELOPING WARMTH AND DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z LEVERAGING THE RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR TO BETTER TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WORKING
UP FROM EASTERN KS AND W MO. THIS RESULTED IN DELAYING THE ONSET
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BY ONE TO TWO HOURS IN THE SW AND AN
OVERALL TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
H300 PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
COLORADO CUTOFF LOW AND INTO IOWA TODAY. THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL DRIVE A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 18Z TODAY. BROAD
KINEMATIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A REGION OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL
LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY NARROW
RIBBON OF H700-H500 MIXING RATIO VALUES OVER 4 G/KG OVER CENTRAL
IOWA BY 18Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT IOWA HAS ALREADY
TAKEN SHAPE IN NE OK AND SE KS AND IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SW CWA
AROUND 12 TO 13Z. IT SHOULD WORK FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO
00Z...ELONGATING AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO
IMPINGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
ENDED RAIN CHANCES SOONER IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL VARY
BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S WEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL
BAND/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...AND LINGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EAST TONIGHT AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LIFT INTO SC IA TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY. GFS/EC MORE
BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THAN THE NAM...SO WENT WITH A BLEND
AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WESTERN CWA TO BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEF ZONE PRECIP TO THEN
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE
LIMITED SO DO EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING THEN
TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WITH MILDER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA THROUGH 18Z. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 17Z AND
03Z. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS
SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850-
600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW.
TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED
TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN
LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER
FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE
CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E
SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH
THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU.
FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH
SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID
50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA
RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS
ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES N-S LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON... EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNDER A SHARPENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME IFR CIGS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FCST. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AFT 19/00Z WILL RESULT IN LIFTING
CIGS AT CMX AND TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL)
STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION
STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s
update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low
pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving
up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our
first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into
southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of
Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception
of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain
move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a
decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before
the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring
the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally
brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected.
Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late
Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to
move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some
leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of
the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on
by and drier air moves in.
There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today
through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2
inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2
and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened
up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal.
Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and
streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting
any major issues.
Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the
way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are
possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor
activities around the Missouri Ozarks!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions at area
terminals today through tonight. Showers will increase from the
west today while ceilings gradually lower. MVFR ceilings will
become more prevalent this afternoon into tonight as low level
moisture continues to increase. The coverage of showers will
decrease tonight but areas of light fog and IFR ceilings may
develop by late tonight.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds
of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as
the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances
will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the
low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an
inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light
enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain
event for gardening and agriculture.
For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and
western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and
storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level
jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations
could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to
the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in
rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into
northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from
the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to
produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few
storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in
the wake of rain from earlier.
A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and
become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning.
This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms
focused further east across northern and central MO through this
time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as
the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the
east of the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Rain across Kansas and Oklahoma will overspread the entire area
through the morning and early afternoon. Conditions will initially
remain VFR but ceilings will gradually lower into MVFR through the
morning. A few pockets of IFR aren`t out of the question. Back edge
of this rain will clear out around noon for areas near the state line
with just a few lingering showers before a cold front moves through
this evening.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
527 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over
the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered
from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed
well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to
increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern
U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer
to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase
in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently
stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should
increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association
with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow
eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a
preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and
central MO.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while
to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave
trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft.
The combination of these short waves and the presence of the
somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will
maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on
Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus
and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east
Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress
into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the
trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by
Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA
and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof
passage.
An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley
during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
VFR conditions through at least 03Z Tuesday at all TAF sites.
Beyond that...MVFR ceilings move into KCOU and KUIN between 03Z
and 06Z Tuesday with scattered showers possible. Southeast to
south winds will continue through at least 12Z Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected through this TAF
period. Relatively dry air filtering in from the east at low
levels should continue to keep lower ceilings and widespread
significant rain to the west of KSTL through at least 12Z
Tuesday.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
329 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over
the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered
from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed
well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to
increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern
U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer
to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase
in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently
stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should
increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association
with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow
eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a
preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and
central MO.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while
to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave
trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft.
The combination of these short waves and the presence of the
somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will
maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on
Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus
and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east
Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress
into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the
trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by
Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA
and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof
passage.
An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley
during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds
of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as
the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances
will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the
low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an
inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light
enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain
event for gardening and agriculture.
For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and
western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and
storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level
jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations
could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to
the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in
rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into
northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from
the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to
produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few
storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in
the wake of rain from earlier.
A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and
become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning.
This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms
focused further east across northern and central MO through this
time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as
the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the
east of the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds
of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as
the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances
will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the
low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so.
By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an
inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light
enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain
event for gardening and agriculture.
For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and
western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and
storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level
jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations
could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to
the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in
rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into
northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from
the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to
produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few
storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in
the wake of rain from earlier.
A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and
become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning.
This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms
focused further east across northern and central MO through this
time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as
the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the
east of the area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
...Much Needed Rainfall On The Way For The Missouri Ozarks
Region...Wet and Unsettled Weather Through Mid Week
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s
update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low
pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving
up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our
first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into
southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of
Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception
of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain
move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a
decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before
the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring
the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally
brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected.
Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late
Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to
move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some
leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of
the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on
by and drier air moves in.
There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today
through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2
inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2
and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened
up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal.
Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and
streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting
any major issues.
Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the
way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are
possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor
activities around the Missouri Ozarks!
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR
ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with
prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling
heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential
for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper
off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and
ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of
the forecast period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and
southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in
OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the
JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during
the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually
deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after
01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower
cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity
showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and
pickup a bit.
Specifics for KSTL:
Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the
forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through
most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept
vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around
10 kts by 16z Monday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on
Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower
mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for
now.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds
ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light
southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the
south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with
increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold
front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist
well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in
the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of
the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of
question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal
passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn
southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the
northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
840 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT MOVING INTO B.C. WONT AFFECT WRN WA EXCEPT
TO GIVE WRN WA SOME CIRRUS TODAY....BUT DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS IT
WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN AROUND
TO LIGHT NW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG ON THE
COAST TUESDAY SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AND WRN WA WILL HAVE ANOTHER
SUNNY WARM DAY...IT SHOULD BE THE THIRD DAY OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER
FOR SEA TAC WHICH WILL BE A FIRST IN APRIL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR A FOURTH
RECORD HIGH. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SET UP ON THE COAST WED...AND
THERE MAY BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OUT OF
OREGON.
.LONG TERM...THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER QUITE ALOT IN THE DETAILS INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW IS JUST FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EACH DAY. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR WRN WA
TIMED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS JUST SHOWERY AT TIMES...
MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE GIVING LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS E OF THE CASCADES WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRES IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AND GOOD VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALBRECHT
KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NW WIND 6 KT OR LESS BECOMING NELY
AFTER 04Z. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH TUE. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES SITS OVER OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST REACHING THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY TUE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE
THERMAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THERMAL GRADIENTS BECOME WESTERLY. BUT AT
THIS TIME...EXPECT WINDS IN THE STRAIT TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW FOG WITH LOW
VISIBILITY FOLLOWING THE THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING.
THE MAIN PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATE TUE NIGHT
OR WED AS A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS ON THE
OREGON COAST THEN MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE FORECAST
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE S WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT OR WED...THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES A PUSH AFTER A WARM
SPELL IN THE INTERIOR AND AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
CONSIDER BOOSTING WINDS ON WED FOR BOTH THE COAST AND PUGET SOUND
AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS.
A WEAK FRONT MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT OR FRI.
ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM.
MAY SEE SOME CU POP UP AGAIN LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN
STORY WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE
THIS EVENING. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE
PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTEDTO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI
ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE.
PC
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY...LINGERING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
HENTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT
TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. DESPITE SOME CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THESE AREAS. NORTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. STILL...AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE AIR COLUMN BY
LATER TONIGHT. CONTINUED TO BRING IN CHANCE POPS BY LATER TONIGHT
IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOWER TO THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED OVER NORTHERN WI AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY NORTHERN WI ON TUE. SOUTHERN WI WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THAT AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY SO KEPT MENTION FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LOW FOR TUE AND TUE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALSO AN UPPER JET. THE FORCING LOOKS MORE PROMISING AND THE WEIGHTED
AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN THE MODELS IS AROUND A QUARTER INCH.. THAT WAVE
OF PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STILL
NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY IN MODEL SOUNDINGS... BUT JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
WI. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL BRING FORCING FOR A
FRONT TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI THIS WEEKEND. THAT FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI ON
SATURDAY IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OR SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN WI EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN SITES BY MIDDAY...LINGERING UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN SPEED SOMEWHAT ONCE THEY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND IT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER...BECOMING OVERCAST LATE. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF MADISON TONIGHT.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE
WINDS AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 23 TO 28 PERCENT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...SOUTH
INLAND AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. FUELS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016
TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BASICALLY OVER THE GRAND VALLEY HAS
SQUEEZED OUT SOME SNOW THIS MORNING. RAP SUGGESTS THIS
CIRCULATION REFORMING TO OUR EAST OVER THE ELKS/VAIL PASS AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH A CONVERGENT LINE EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AND EXPECT SOME
SNOW RATES TO INCREASE AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE RELEVANT WITH
HEATING. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN UNDER THE LOW AS WE ARE STILL TRAPPED
IN THE MID 30S IN THE GRAND VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016
THE BROAD...QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THIS WEEKEND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP13 ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LOBE OF
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATED SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER
THIS AREA AS A SECOND VORT LOBE COMBINES WITH JET DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY FROM LATE MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. MODELS
SUGGEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE WEST ELK...SAWATCH AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FEET. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE WITH CHANCES LOWER WEST OF A BAGGS TO RIFLE TO CORTEZ
LINE.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE
TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND WEAKER.
HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A PARTING SHOT FROM
THIS STORM TUESDAY DESPITE THE LOW CENTER BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW CENTER WILL SPILL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
SNOW WILL SHIFT TO RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE TO NEAR 7000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOWS
DIPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TONIGHT. A BIT
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS MILDER AIR FILLS IN
BEHIND THE LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RECOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY BUT
THEN RISE ABOVE ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST THEN
BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SEPARATE AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN SHIFT TO LOWER AMPLITUDE
FLOW THAT COULD BE ACTIVE FOR US FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR MORE.
FRIDAY BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND WEST COAST TROUGH...THE
DEEPER GFS PULLS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALL
THE WAY UP FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 12Z EC HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND
CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS. THIS WOULD BE A QUITE
MILD FLOW WITH AFTERNOON 700MB TEMPS AT 6C OR EVEN WARMER. RAIN
EXPECTED AT ALL ELEVATIONS THOUGH CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE NON OR
LOW ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE TREELINE.
THE MILD AND MOIST TROUGH PASSES NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
AGAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES EARLY THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GRAND VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST TO THE NEAR THE CENTRAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER ARE DIRECTLY UNDER THE LOW. THIS HAS
LED TO IFR/MVFR AT KDRO AND KGJT. AS THE LOW SHIFT EAST NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT
FLIGHT OPERATIONS AT KASE. KTEX SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME IMPACTS FROM
THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED AT KDRO AND
KGJT THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
FOR IMPACTS FROM KRIL TO KEGE UNDER THE PATH OF THIS SHIFTING
CIRCULATION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ010-
012-018-019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER BACK IN VIA GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. IT WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THURSDAY WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 459 PM EDT...ANOTHER EXCEPTIONAL DAY IN THESE PARTS WITH MOST
OF US ENJOYING WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S...TOUCHING AROUND 80 IN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT STILL WAS SITUATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ABOUT TO MAKE ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SWEEPING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT LOOKS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION VIA A NORTHWESTERLY WIND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN HERE WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AT ALL AS THE LATEST 4KM BTV WRF HAS BACKED OFF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HRRR HAS A LITTLE MORE
BUT NOT MUCH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS AS IF THERE ONLY BE SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF
ANY AT ALL.
IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
SPRINKLE OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT
WILL DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE BREEZE
COULD GUST TO 30 MPH IN THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS...HIGHER
TERRAIN....MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS H850 TEMPS COOL TO ABOUT -
2C. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING VALLEYS LOOK TO CRACK THE 60S...50S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND SLACKENING
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TO THE 30S AT NIGHT. THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...60 TO 65
VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT
IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...STILL IN PLACE FROM EARLIER...BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS FOR THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW TO
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN POLAR JET FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FOR
HIGHER POPS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND +10C.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WE RETURN H850 TEMPS
BELOW 0C. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE THOSE VALLEY TEMPERATURES
FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE 50S WITH 40S FOR THE
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH
20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT
TO MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE REGION OF
CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SUPPORTS THE GFS BUT DELAYED ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY AVERAGE JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK
WITH VFR...LIGHT WIND AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH WORKING THROUGH THE
TAFS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL
SPREAD MAINLY VFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WE DID
ASSIGN A PROB30 GROUP FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR AT KGFL
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z BUT OTHERWISE LEFT ALL THE TAF SITES AT VFR
STATUS. ASSIGNED A VCSH AT KALB AND KPSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH...AND MOST CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED
WITH BASES 40-60 (FEW AT KPOU) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND
5KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND INCREASING TO 8-12KTS LATER BY TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS (HIGHEST AT KPSF AND KALB)...BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 100 PM TO 600 PM EDT ON
TUESDAY...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OVER FIVE DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BRING A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL TO REALLY ANY OUR REGION. THERE MIGHT BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 10-15
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR MAIN FIRE WEATHER USERS...WE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AGAIN FOR ALL AREAS...INCLUDING ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE WINDS WILL RELAX BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
WIND SHOULD LIGHTER...FROM THE NORTHWEST...5-15 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS...
15-25 PERCENT.
BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
SOUTHERN BREEZE 5-15 MPH. AT THIS POINT...AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY...DROPPING TO THE 30S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z LEVERAGING THE RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR TO BETTER TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WORKING
UP FROM EASTERN KS AND W MO. THIS RESULTED IN DELAYING THE ONSET
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BY ONE TO TWO HOURS IN THE SW AND AN
OVERALL TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
H300 PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
COLORADO CUTOFF LOW AND INTO IOWA TODAY. THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
WILL DRIVE A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 18Z TODAY. BROAD
KINEMATIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A REGION OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL
LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY NARROW
RIBBON OF H700-H500 MIXING RATIO VALUES OVER 4 G/KG OVER CENTRAL
IOWA BY 18Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT IOWA HAS ALREADY
TAKEN SHAPE IN NE OK AND SE KS AND IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SW CWA
AROUND 12 TO 13Z. IT SHOULD WORK FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO
00Z...ELONGATING AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO
IMPINGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
ENDED RAIN CHANCES SOONER IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL VARY
BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S WEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL
BAND/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...AND LINGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EAST TONIGHT AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LIFT INTO SC IA TOWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY. GFS/EC MORE
BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THAN THE NAM...SO WENT WITH A BLEND
AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WESTERN CWA TO BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEF ZONE PRECIP TO THEN
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE
LIMITED SO DO EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING THEN
TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WITH MILDER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL IN THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO
WARRANT FM OR TEMPO GROUP. KEPT MIN CIGS AT 1000FT. THESE MAY NEED
TO BE TWEAKED TO IFR IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
A shortwave continues to lift through northeast KS per the 20Z water
vapor imagery. Meanwhile the cut off upper low remains over
northwest CO. Surface obs indicate the trough axis is just to the
east of the forecast area with some drier and cooler air advecting
in from the northwest.
Subsidence from the shortwave is expected to keep the weather dry
over the forecast area for tonight. The main concern is whether some
fog develops. This is highly dependent on whether skies clear out
and the boundary layer radiates outs. Latest visible satellite
continues to show expansive stratocu deck across western KS and the
18Z RAP has trended towards keeping a stratus deck over the forecast
area through the night. Since the HRRR/RAP/SREF show visibilities
remaining at 5 miles or better, will keep the mention of patchy fog
across north central KS inserted by the prev shift since some breaks
in the clouds are possible, but will not expand it and any further.
Later shifts will need to watch the cloud trends for clearing. Then
the potential for fog ,even dense fog, would increase. Have not made
many changes to the low temp forecast as models continue to support
readings from the mid 40s across north central KS to the lower 50s
in east central KS as a result of some weak cold air advection.
For Tuesday, models show the potential for another shortwave to
round the bottom of the cut off low and lift north. As it does,
there is some modest moisture return as 850 winds veer around more
to the southeast. So with the prospects for increasing large scale
forcing, chances for precip increase through the afternoon from
south to north. Models show very modest instability developing given
mid level lapse rates remaining around 6 C/km. The GFS is most
aggressive in developing some instability across east central KS
tomorrow afternoon, but it also tries to break out the sun and heat
things up a little more. So while some thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, think rain showers are most likely. Models do not show any warm
air advection and feel like clouds are going to be hard to scour
out. With this in mind, have afternoon highs in the mid and upper
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Models are trending to a stronger wave rotating around the upper low
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with good forcing aloft interacting
with increasing moisture for another likely moderate, fairly
widespread rain event. It again appears to occur in the late Tuesday
night to Wednesday morning hours but a lack of consistent training
and instability still weak at best should keep amounts from being
troublesome. May have some clearing in the afternoon for temps to
push into the middle to upper 60s but this could be a challenge
depending on precip and temp timing. Not expecting much chance for
fog development WEdnesday night with northwest winds increasing
behind a weak surface trough and some high cloud remaining. The
northwest winds will not be able to bring in much air in this
stagnant pattern and warmer temps are anticipated for Thursday. Will
need to maintain some small pops for most areas through early
Thursday with the mean upper trough still upstream.
Longer range periods continue to show upper ridging in control of
the central CONUS into at least Saturday, but models become
increasingly into disagreement in handling of energy along nearly
the Pacific coast of much of North America. The 12Z ECMWF weakens
much of this energy, allowing for at least weak ridging aloft to
persist, allowing a front to sink south through the Northern Plains,
while the 12Z GFS and a few of its ensembles brings a shortwave on
east through the Southern Rockies over the weekend with a more
obviously wet and stormy scenario for late Sunday into Monday. With
many other GFS ensembles differing significantly, have kept precip
chances somewhat reduced compared to the GFS. Highs still look to
rise toward 80 for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Don`t have much confidence in the CIGS forecast this afternoon.
Models continue to show CIGS scattering out but satellite and obs
show CIGS around 1 KFT still holding in strong across southwestern
KS. Because of this have held onto the IFR and MVFR CIGS longer
into the forecast period. There remains a potential for fog
overnight, however with the low confidence in the CIGS forecast
I`m not sure if there will be enough cooling for fog formation.
Later shifts will need to monitor this through the evening.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
542 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA OVER W LA FROM POE TO LCH AND CAMERON
EXTENDING OFFSHORE...MOVING EAST AT ~10 MPH. THUS...PREVAILING
SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT LCH...AND AT AEX SHORTLY
AS IT ARRIVES. FOR BPT...HEAVIEST CONVECTION OUT OF SE TX...WITH
ONLY INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. AT LFT/ARA...LEFT TEMPO GROUP FOR
INTERMITTENT SHRA AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT BELIEVE
IT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BE CLOSE TO DISSIPATION BY THE TIME
IT ARRIVES OVER ACADIANA. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT REMAINING SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SE TX/W LA BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD EAST AS WELL. PLACED PROB30 GROUP
FROM 18-24Z FOR TSRA & IFR VSBY/CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS
BREAKS DOWN...EVENTUALLY SENDING A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL AID IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT N-S ORIENTED
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ACTUALLY DEPICTS IT INDICATING WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION AS IT REACHES INTO EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION THE
BEST...AND IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO
2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN GENERALLY WITHIN A REGION BOUNDED BY THE
CURRENT WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO
LAKE ARTHUR LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OF QUICKLY TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A MARKSVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE.
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH INDICATIONS IN THIS AND
OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST TX
AND WESTERN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS TWD TUE MORNING. MSTR
CONTENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...MEANING ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND WILL
ALSO BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE CURRENT 7AM TUE EXPIRATION TIME.
PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THE WATCH
WILL EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXTENDED IN TIME LATER SHIFTS.
FCST BEYOND THIS TIME BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE REGION...WITH YET MORE
RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CDFNT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE START
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROF.
13
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPENING
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 63 76 64 79 / 60 70 50 50
LCH 69 77 68 79 / 80 70 40 50
LFT 67 78 67 80 / 40 40 30 40
BPT 68 77 68 79 / 70 90 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
452-455.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
453 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS
BREAKS DOWN...EVENTUALLY SENDING A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL AID IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT N-S ORIENTED
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ACTUALLY DEPICTS IT INDICATING WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION AS IT REACHES INTO EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION THE
BEST...AND IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO
2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN GENERALLY WITHIN A REGION BOUNDED BY THE
CURRENT WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO
LAKE ARTHUR LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OF QUICKLY TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A MARKSVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE.
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH INDICATIONS IN THIS AND
OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST TX
AND WESTERN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS TWD TUE MORNING. MSTR
CONTENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...MEANING ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND WILL
ALSO BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE CURRENT 7AM TUE EXPIRATION TIME.
PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THE WATCH
WILL EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXTENDED IN TIME LATER SHIFTS.
FCST BEYOND THIS TIME BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE REGION...WITH YET MORE
RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CDFNT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE START
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROF.
13
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE
WINDS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPENING
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 63 76 64 79 / 60 70 50 50
LCH 69 77 68 79 / 80 70 40 50
LFT 67 78 67 80 / 40 40 30 40
BPT 68 77 68 79 / 70 90 40 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
073-074.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ215-216.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
452-455.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
128 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/18Z TAFS...AXIS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAYY RAIN
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX INTO SW AR AND
WRN LA. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED TYR/GGG AND WILL SOON AT
LFK WHILE ELD/MLU REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE ERN EDGE OF THE RAIN.
CIGS WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PD
WITH SOME OCCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR. DO EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS NEW
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN E/SE COMPONENTS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
/19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A N-S BAND OF SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA...REMAINS PERSISTENT
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/EXTREME ERN
TX/WRN LA...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE SHRA SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ENTRAIN
EWD ALONG AN ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THE ONGOING CONVECTION SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AS HAS THE 12Z
GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER TO DO SO AND MAINTAINS
THE CONVECTION OVER AREAS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING. GIVEN THE
SLOWING TRENDS WITH THE LEAD GUST FRONT ALONG THE ONGOING MCS
OVER EXTREME SE TX/WRN GULF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO KICK EWD...THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELIES OVER EXTREME
ERN TX/WRN LA/SW AR WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
ONLY SHUNT A BIT FARTHER EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DID RAISE POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE LAST N-S TIER OF NCNTRL LA PARISHES AS THE
CONVECTION REACHES THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W
WHERE THE SHRA HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SFC/MLCAPES REMAIN NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WHILE THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OVER SE TX EXTENDED NE INTO NCNTRL LA LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED/NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
COLUMN IN PLACE. DID EXPAND HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ANOTHER COLUMN
OF COUNTIES/PARISHES E PER THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT THESE
AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THUS FAR DURING THIS EVENT AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA ATTM. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE RAIN-COOLED AREAS...AS THEY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 63 75 64 / 100 80 80 50
MLU 77 60 75 63 / 50 40 60 50
DEQ 69 62 71 61 / 100 80 80 60
TXK 69 63 73 62 / 100 80 80 60
ELD 74 60 74 63 / 70 70 80 60
TYR 72 65 74 64 / 50 80 80 50
GGG 70 64 74 63 / 60 80 80 50
LFK 71 66 75 65 / 100 80 70 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059-060-
070-071.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001-002-010-017.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A N-S BAND OF SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA...REMAINS PERSISTENT
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/EXTREME ERN
TX/WRN LA...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE SHRA SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ENTRAIN
EWD ALONG AN ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THE ONGOING CONVECTION SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AS HAS THE 12Z
GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER TO DO SO AND MAINTAINS
THE CONVECTION OVER AREAS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING. GIVEN THE
SLOWING TRENDS WITH THE LEAD GUST FRONT ALONG THE ONGOING MCS
OVER EXTREME SE TX/WRN GULF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO KICK EWD...THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELIES OVER EXTREME
ERN TX/WRN LA/SW AR WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
ONLY SHUNT A BIT FARTHER EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DID RAISE POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE LAST N-S TIER OF NCNTRL LA PARISHES AS THE
CONVECTION REACHES THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W
WHERE THE SHRA HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E
TX...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SFC/MLCAPES REMAIN NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WHILE THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OVER SE TX EXTENDED NE INTO NCNTRL LA LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED/NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
COLUMN IN PLACE. DID EXPAND HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ANOTHER COLUMN
OF COUNTIES/PARISHES E PER THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT THESE
AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THUS FAR DURING THIS EVENT AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA ATTM. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE RAIN-COOLED AREAS...AS THEY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO
REACH 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 63 75 64 / 100 80 80 50
MLU 77 60 75 63 / 50 40 60 50
DEQ 69 62 71 61 / 100 80 80 60
TXK 69 63 73 62 / 100 80 80 60
ELD 74 60 74 63 / 70 70 80 60
TYR 72 65 74 64 / 50 80 80 50
GGG 70 64 74 63 / 60 80 80 50
LFK 71 66 75 65 / 100 80 70 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059-060-
070-071.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001-002-010-017.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1258 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS
SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850-
600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW.
TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED
TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN
LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER
FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE
INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN
LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE
CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E
SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH
THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU.
FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH
SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID
50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA
RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS
ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016
AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNDER A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SAW AND PUT THEM IN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. KCMX WILL HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AFT 19/00Z WILL
RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016
CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL)
STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON
COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION
STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
The upper low currently over the Rockies will move ewd very slowly
tonight. As it does, the band of precip over wrn and portions of
central MO will also slowly move ewd. Believe much of the precip
will be rather light, but there are some indications of more shower
activity, perhaps with some TS tonight.
Mdl solns are varied, but believe the bulk of the precip will
weaken somewhat as it moves ewd and pulls to the north. A weak sfc
boundary shud keep precip focused across nrn and wrn portions of the
CWA late tonight. This boundary is coupled with the focus of a
moderate LLJ which shud help sustain precip until shortly after
Midnight. Have kept likely PoPs into Tues morning, but this
continues to be more uncertain.
Tilly
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru
the upcoming weekend.
If it wasn`t for the machinations of a cutoff LOW over the east-
central Rockies, this would normally be a warm and dry pattern, much
like what we saw this past weekend. Instead we will see this cutoff
LOW initially move little thru Tuesday and throw disturbances our way
in what will be an increasingly moist column, meaning rain chances
will be slow to advance from west to east during that time. The
best rain chances for the day on Tuesday look to be for areas north
and west of STL metro. However, look for a cooler day Tuesday than
today due to the increased clouds, with the warmest values over in
IL away from the rain, where upper 70s may still be attained, but
areas towards northeast-central MO struggling to get much over 70F.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Now...the track of this key feature is a bit slower and
further north than it was 24hrs ago, with the main system center
staying to our north, but still coinciding well with a surface cold
front slated to move thru early Thursday morning with the upper
level support sticking around thru much of the day on Thursday.
Certainly will justify the persistent rain chances thru Thursday,
but the best rain chances now look to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a strong disturbance ejecting into our region in a
moist column. The passage of the main storm center to our north--
if it holds true--will mean more scattered pcpn when this happens
Wednesday night and Thursday, depending on how well the front itself
can focus things, but its timing and convergence from a more gradual
wind shift look suspect enough to prevent likely PoPs for most
areas now. The clouds and lingering rain chances will keep temps in
check Wed-Fri, but still at or slightly above normal, especially
with the mild nights.
The departure of the leftover cutoff LOW system by Friday will
mean a more typical result for a longwave upper RIDGE--and back to
dry and warm wx for the weekend for most areas once the southerly
winds kick back in on Saturday. Daytime max temps may reach 80F
again. The GFS has a strong upper level system for next Monday, but
not much consensus on this system just yet so PoPs will stick close
to climo which is around 30% for this time of year.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016
Area of rain across wrn MO will be the forecast focus thru this
TAF period. Guidance for this event is somewhat mixed, but believe
precip will redevelop this afternoon and impact KCOU/KUIN this
evening. This precip may impact KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around sunrise Tues
morning. However, believe the bulk of the precip will remain NW of
the terminal. Coverage of precip on Tues is more uncertain and
have kept only mention of VC for now with questions on location
and coverage.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low
still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front
currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down
into the Texas panhandle. At the regional level, band of heavier
precip has moved northeastward through the morning and early
afternoon, gradually weakening with time as primary forcing remained
north across Iowa. Scattered showers remain on the backside of the
main band, and the HRRR has done a great job with the overall precip
trend. With a few hundred joules of CAPE, might see an isolated
thunderstorm or two with this scattered activity. Western half of
the CWA should see a downward trend in activity towards evening.
Another vorticity maxima will peel off from the main low late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front looks to stall across the
region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for
precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg
of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms expected
once again Wednesday in somewhat of a wash-rinse-repeat cycle. Upper
low finally begins to eject into the Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday, eventually merging into the northern stream flow. As the
trough passes to the north of the region, we could see a few more
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
Upper level ridging will build into the central conus as we head
into the weekend, bringing warm temperatures and relatively quiet
weather. The next system to watch will be a trough ejecting out of
the central Rockies the beginning of the next work week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Main precip band has moved out of the terminals. Scattered rain
showers are still possible through early afternoon. Ceilings should
remain primarily MVFR with a few dips to IFR possible. Cold front
will move through around 06Z with winds veering around to westerly
then northwesterly by tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs may scatter out
briefly this evening before returning between 10-12Z.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY AND TUE...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AIR MASS. BUT...WILL SEE CHANGES LATER
TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL DRAW CLOSER...BRINGING A
CHANCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER
LOW PRES WILL APPROACH REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALOFT AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WINDS ON THE
COAST BECOMING ON SHORE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF OF
CALIFORNIA IS STARTING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THESE CLOUDS ARE
INITIALIZING WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THAT THIS
STRATUS (AND POSSIBLY FOG) WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
STRATUS WAY OFFSHORE TO THE NW THAT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN
OREGON/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WATERS TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...BUT HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR THE COAST. WILL WATCH HOW THESE CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TJ
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES STILL
OVER THE REGION...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE RIDGE
AXIS IS NOW ANCHORED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AM... WILL SEE
VARIABLE CIRRUS DRIFT ACROSS REGION TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
WEAKENED...SO NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND TODAY AS SAW ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
CROSS-CASCADES GRADIENT STILL RUNNING AROUND 4.5 TO 5 MB
OFFSHORE...WILL STILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AND IN THE
COLUMBIA GORGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH THERE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LIGHTER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO RESUME. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. BIG PLAYER IN THE WEATHER WILL BE
THE UPPER LOW THAT NOW SITS WELL SW OF OREGON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY LIFTING THIS LOW OUT AND INTO OUR AREA TUE NIGHT
AND WED. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NE...WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT NE AHEAD
OF IT. THIS IS WHY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SWLY MARINE PUSH TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY...BUT SEEMS MODELS MAY BE LATE ON CATCHING THIS AS
WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW. WILL TREND TI INCREASING MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TUE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL.
EXPECT WED TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH GENERALLY IN THE
60S...POSSIBLY LOWER 70S INLAND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AS
WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY ON WED. WHILE
NORMALLY A BIT EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR THIS SORT OF THING...BEING ON
THE HEELS OF A VERY WARM TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER AS
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF REGION LATE TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY WED...THEN SHIFT THREAT EAST OF THE COAST RANGE BY
WED AFTERNOON. ROCKEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE WITH AN ARRIVING FRONT LATER THURSDAY. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
THEN TAKES UP RESIDENCE NEAR THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
BRINGING PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES...IN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MUCH MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW
LEVELS BEGIN ABOVE 7500 FEET THURSDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO THE
4500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS. EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TODAY AS GRADIENTS
RELAX AND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HOWEVER SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KTTD TODAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS BUT SOME EAST WINDS CONTINUE EAST OF I205.
LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THE WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IS
LOOKING EVEN WEAKER NOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE IN
MARINE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY AFTER SATURDAY.
SEAS 7 TO 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY TO AROUND 6 FT...AND COULD FALL TO AROUND 4
FT WEDNESDAY. SEAS POSSIBLY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. COLUMBIA RIVER BAR REACHING 9 FT DURING THE EBB THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL DON`T EXPECT BREAKERS SO
CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARINERS
SHOULD USING CAUTION ON THE BAR. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...COMPLEX SCENARIO PLAYING OUT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. COLD OUTFLOW FROM DYING
CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST HAS SURGED THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND...WHICH ONLY THE RAP MODEL
PICKED UP ON IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS HAS BECOME
UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 35-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER. STORMS FORMING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE GROWING UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO JIM WELLS
COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. HOW ALL OF THIS AFFECTS THE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY FORMING
TO THE WEST COULD MOVE OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAIN
ORGANIZED BUT IN AN ELEVATED NATURE. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EARLIER TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED MODIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS WILL RESIDE BUT WILL GO ALONG WITH NAM/GFS
SHOWING HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS TO SHOW WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT)...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS UNTIL 04Z...THOUGH 07Z FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 12Z FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8
FEET AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS AND MAY GO TO 9-10 FEET BEFORE
SUBSIDING. EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT.
&&
.TIDES...TIDES AND BAY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. TIDES ARE 2-2.25 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTED BUT THIS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE. THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF
PREDICT THE EARLY STAGES OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE OMGEGA BLOCK AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY. THUS...A DECREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THE CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. YET...CONCUR WITH
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MAINTAINS COPIOUS MSTR (ORIGINATING OVER
THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER SPORT CIRA TOTAL LPW) OVER THE ERN
CWA/MSA THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS WL MAINTAIN SCT CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS PER SREF PROBABILITIES. PER THE
WAVEWATCH...SWELL HEIGHTS/PERIODS MAY MAINTAIN MODERATE/HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN...ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WL
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC INCREASES MSTR AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WL ONLY FCST ISOLD CONVECTION SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 82 72 82 71 / 80 50 40 50 30
VICTORIA 69 81 70 82 68 / 70 50 40 50 30
LAREDO 70 88 70 88 70 / 70 30 40 40 30
ALICE 70 85 71 85 69 / 80 40 40 50 30
ROCKPORT 73 81 72 82 71 / 80 60 40 50 30
COTULLA 67 85 69 86 68 / 70 30 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 71 84 71 84 70 / 80 50 40 50 30
NAVY CORPUS 73 81 72 79 72 / 80 50 40 50 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
OCONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARMTH AND SUNSHINE.
A STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD WARM DAY IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH
SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WERE SEEN TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE
SAME AND THERE ARE NO WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...JUST
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOWER PRES AT THE SFC.
THE FORECAST FOR WED IS FOR MUCH COOLER MARINE AIR TO ARRIVE...
IF THE PUSH COMES TO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE FORECAST
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOO COOL AND I WAS TEMPTED TO WARM UP THE FORECAST
QUITE A BIT FOR WED BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SEE ANOTHER MODEL
RUN. A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM OREGON SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT ANY PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL EVENING AND THAT ANY
TSTMS WILL ONLY BE OVER THE MTNS.
.LONG TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
ONE GLOBAL MODEL OR ANOTHER HAS SHOWN A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...AND OTHER
TIMES JUST LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN THE MODELS. TIMING
IS USUALLY DIFFERENT WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE GIVING LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS E OF THE CASCADES WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRES IS ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
TUE. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS AND GOOD VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG MAY FORM ON THE WASHINGTON BEACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE.
ALBRECHT
KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT W TO NW WIND AT 6 KT OR LESS
WILL TURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH TUE. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES SITTING ON THE
WASHINGTON COAST WILL MIGRATE E INTO THE INLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUE...THEN SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES TUE NIGHT OR WED.
WEAK HIGH PRES IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE THERMAL
TROUGH. EARLIER HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED SHALLOW FOG ENGULFING THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FOG BANK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND THE HRRR IS NOW
BACKING OFF ON ITS EVENTUAL EASTWARD EXTENT. WILL CUT THE FOG
COVERAGE TO PATCHY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE MAIN MARINE PUSH THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON WED.
FORECASTS WILL LIMIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WED
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AND THU NIGHT. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FIRST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE MONITORING SOUTHWARD SAGGING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL ACCELERATION
ALONG THE LAKE WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT/TEMP DROPOFF. WATCHING THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE WI AND NOTE SOME INCREASING IN NORTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE BAY AND DOOR COUNTY LOCALES THOUGH PRESSURE RISE AREA NOT
IMPRESSIVE ATTM. MODELS TREND THIS BOUNDARY INTO SE WI THIS EVENING
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER LAKESIDE GUSTS
LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TEMP DROPOFF.
OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM
TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP IS ONLY AS CLOSE AS WESTERN
IOWA AND THAT IS LIFTING MOSTLY NORTHWARD. TREND IN MODELS IS FOR
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO TUESDAY
WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME LEAD IMPULSES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM
SYSTEM TO SLIDE INTO WI. THERE ARE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
QPF WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST...BASICALLY SPLITTING PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH GRADUALLY BRING SOME
RAIN INTO SC WI LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE CHANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO POPS
WITH THIS PROGRESSION. MUCH COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE...ESP IN THE EAST
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS WITH NE WINDS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH DRIES FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
LEVEL RH FROM 925 TO 850 MB REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A LITTLE
ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 50 JOULES/KG THAT BECOMES SURFACE BASED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 100 JOULES/KG.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AT TIMES DEPENDED ON THE MODEL. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING
THE FASTEST.
THE SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A MORE OPEN
WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION DECREASES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE 700/850/925 MB RH STAYS HIGH. THE SURFACE AND
925 MB LOW CROSSES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY.
A DRY WEDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500 JOULES/KG.
.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LIGHT RAIN ENDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A RATHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS A FASTER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A STRONG SURFACE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE
LOW BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM.
INLAND VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN STORY
WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP BUFKIT
STILL SHOWING FROPA ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR
A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY
CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN
AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE
QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED BUT NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVERALL
EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH WAVES PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AT THIS POINT EXPECTING WINDS/WAVES TO BE BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ