Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/18/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 16/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST... MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE INHERITED POP FORECAST SHOWS THIS NOTION...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED. BOTH THE RED FLAG WARNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 68 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGS...WHICH WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK...BUT WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW RECENT TRENDS. FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z. SWLY SFC WIND DIMINISHING AFT AROUND 16/06Z TO 8 TO 12 KTS. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ESP N TO NE OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN NE OF KSAD AFT 16/06Z. WLY/NWLY SFC WIND INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...ESP NEAR THE NM BORDER INCLUDING KSAD/KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FT WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THEREAFTER...20-FT WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND AREA WIDE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COLDER PROTECTED SPOTS OF COCHISE COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. DRY NW FLOW MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 90S IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOW DESERT AREAS. MODELS HINTING AT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
918 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 ATTENTION REMAINS CENTERED ON THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. PAST FEW HOURS THIS CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SHIFTED SOUTH FROM JUST NORTH OF EAGLE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR ASPEN. WHILE THIS DISPLACEMENT IS RELATIVELY SMALL...THIS HAS CAUSED THE 550-400 MB FLOW TO TURN A SHADE MORE SELY WHICH HAS CAUSED MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NERN COLORADO/SERN WYOMING. DENVER AND CHEYENNE RADARS HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER AND ALONG THE LARAMIE AND FRONT RANGES PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE A LOW-LEVEL N-NWLY FLOW IS HELPING TO MOVE PRECIP OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. HRRR AND RAP SMALL SCALE MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH FROM LONGMONT NORTHWARD TO FT COLLINS AND GREELEY WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...PRECIP MAY BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOOTHILL AREAS WILL BE CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON A LOCAL BASIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY 07Z OR 08Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED EVENING POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. NEXT...HAVE KEPT AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS MAINLY ACRS ERN BOULDER...SWRN WELD...BROOMFIELD AND NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA AS FAR SOUTH AS NENR DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALL DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW CLOUD DESK PARTIALLY CLEARS LATE TONIGHT AND SOME OF THE MODEL INDICATE. DON`T SEE THIS FOG LINGERING IN THE DENVER AREA TO FAR BEYOND SUNRISE WITH FORMATION OF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND IS FCST TO RETROGRADE INTO NWRN CO/SWRN WY OVERNIGHT. CROSS- SECTIONS STILL SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF DENVER TO THE WY BORDER. IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. BY LATE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NNW HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE UP TO 700 MB. THUS EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY IN THE MTNS. ON MON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NWRN CO/SWRN WY. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER BY LATE AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE IN THE MTNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY EARLY AFTN. BY LATE AFTN WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF SHSN IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER THE PLAINS WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NERN CO WITH A FEW LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS WHERE VERY LITTLE SNOW OCCURRED. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 MODELS HAVE THE UPPER CIRCULATION ANYWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CENTER IS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IT STAYS THERE ALL TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY ...THEN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW SOME UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN AFTER THAT CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK SOUTH TO WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SURGE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PROGGED WEDNESDAY...THEN DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT QUITE A BIT...JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA FOR THE LATE DAY PERIODS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL MINOR VALUES. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LATE DAY TUESDAY...MORE SO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...THE BEST SHOT...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVEN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH 30-60%S MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EAST CWA. THEN LATE DAY TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN 20-50% POPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EAST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS COME UP 2-4 C MORE FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TIMING IS STILL OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER WAY NORTH OVER MONTANA...WHILE THE GFS HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UPPER RIDGING ON THE ECMWF BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ON THE GFS. POOR AGREEMENT STILL WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WHOLE WEEKEND. WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING WITH HIGH POPS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016 COULD SEE 2000-3000 FT AGL CIGS IN THE DENVER AREA PERIODICALLY LOWERING TO BELOW 1500 FT AGL THROUGH 07Z WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS. ITS MORE LIKELY THIS WILL HAPPEN IN AREAS WEST OF I-25 SUCH AS AT KBJC AND ALSO AT KAPA. ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. SO VSBYS PRIOR TO 07Z SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES. AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DENVER AREA. COULD SEE LOCAL VSBYS UNDER 3 MILES TOWARDS DAWN. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE DISSIPATION OF THIS FOG BY 14Z TO 15Z/MON. WHILE CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAKER SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 .UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. THE STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...ANCHORED ON BOTH SIDES BY LARGE CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE WE ARE PROTECTED UNDER THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE NOW SHIFTED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS PER EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH IS NOW FULLY IN CONTROL OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT (FOR THE LAND ZONES)...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES IN THE FORECAST. STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF I-4 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY...WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...AND PERHAPS A NEXT DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING BACK BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DECREASE IN THE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD THEN PREVENT HEADLINE CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 62 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 80 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 61 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 54 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 64 82 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... .UPDATE...EVENING CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING FROM JUST ABOVE 850 MBS INTO THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.73 INCHES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 750 MILES OFF THE NC COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 18Z GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE QPF LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC WITH HRRR MODEL INDICATING ISOLD SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. SENT EARLY ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE RIP CURRENT/LAKE WIND HEADLINES. LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 60 INTERIOR TO MID TO SOME UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND BEACHES FROM THE CAPE SOUTH. && .AVIATION... VFR. SCT TO LVL BKN 040-050 CIGS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA FCST TO APPROACH THE COAST FROM KTIX-KSUA 05Z-08Z AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT WITH WITH PROBS LESS THAN 30 HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SEAS THIS EVENING RUNNING AROUND 8 FT AT BUOY 41009 AND 6-7 FT NEAR SHORE. NE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NC COAST. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20- 60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ VOLKMER/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT FOR MORNING UPDATE... BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 301 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. KJB && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW 60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... FINE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT...BACKING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE FOR ORD/MDW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COLUMN IS STILL RATHER DRY...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FAIR WEATHER VFR CU IN THE 5500-7500 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF CHICAGO. RATZER && .MARINE... 123 AM CDT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE. NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area. Updated zones/grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S. will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper 70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico. Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas north of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while 550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours. Some scattered cumulus has started to develop just northeast of KPIA, and HRRR shows some expansion across the TAF sites early this afternoon, but only scattered in nature. These will fade with sunset, leaving clear skies once again. Southeast winds will prevail during the period, close to 10 knots this afternoon and again toward late Sunday morning, settling down a bit at night. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Onton LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT FOR MORNING UPDATE... BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 301 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. KJB && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW 60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE A VERY NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH A LAKE BREEZE BUMPING SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY...A FEW VFR CUMULUS MAY ACTUALLY BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. MTF && .MARINE... 123 AM CDT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE. NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1001 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area. Updated zones/grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S. will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper 70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico. Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas north of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while 550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered afternoon cloud cover around 6-7 kft expected, with otherwise clear or high thin cirrus sky conditions. Winds E-SE 5-12 kts through the period, with occasional higher gusts in the afternoon. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Onton LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Onton Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for now. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves in This Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems reasonable based on forecast persistence. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
720 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB... MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION. MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE 700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP. ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID. BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN AROUND 80. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. CEILINGS FCST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT OVC035 BY 18Z MONDAY. AT KVTN...MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST TO BECOME IFR NEAR OVC007 BY 06Z AND REMAIN IFR UNTIL 14Z MONDAY. AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR -RA AS WELL MAINLY UNTIL 09Z MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND 40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY... AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND 700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH. SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...AND VISBY WILL BE REDUCED DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY AFFECT KLBF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY FROM KMCK TO KANW AND WEST...WHILE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KONL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3 INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...SNIVELY HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT 0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME. HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WITH SUCH AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TIMING THE ONSET AND EXIT OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING CAMS...HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SEVERAL WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE PRECIP. BEST MID LEVEL FORCING CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GOOD MID LEVEL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN KS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW ANCHORED FURTHER WEST...THE NWD MOVEMENT OF NEWLY DEVELOPED AND ORGANZIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL BE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE RAINING CONSTANTLY. FCST MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SEWD SLOWLY TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO NWRLY OR NRLY AND INCREASE. CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO MAIN LINES WHICH WILL ROTATE UP TO THE N THEN NW BY MOST MODELS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE TAF LOCATIONS IN IFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN LIFR AT TIMES WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN IS OCCURRING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2 MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT 0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME. HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2 MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY. AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR 300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING PERIOD TO END THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE MESSY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ONE MORE DAY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND ACROSS EC/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO POTENTIALLY 40 KT AT TCC/ROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER DURING THE EVE ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PUSH CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE NE THIRD WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVE HRS. CANT RULE OUT SOME TS IMPACTS ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT TOO STABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AEG/ABQ. WILL BE MONITORING THAT TREND. CURRENTLY HAVE TS IN FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES. PRECIP WONT TURN OFF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. THIS MEANS LOW CIG AND PERHAPS SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO NEAR SATURDAY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM. SOME -SN THIS MORNING AT KGUP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTN...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KROW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT LIKELY. A BACK DOOR FRONT NOW OVER NE/EC NM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CROSSING. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY DROP FROM 6-7K FT FROM N CENTRAL TO NW AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE N MTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE W CENTRAL AND CHUSKA MTS. MT OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS/SHRA LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY E OF THE CONTDVD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVEL LIFTS ABOVE 8K FT. MORE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN IS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND W INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER NEAR 6500 FT ACROSS N CENTRAL AREAS AGAIN. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 52 31 55 33 / 60 30 40 30 DULCE........................... 49 25 52 29 / 70 30 70 50 CUBA............................ 46 27 50 30 / 60 50 60 40 GALLUP.......................... 47 26 53 26 / 60 30 30 30 EL MORRO........................ 45 24 50 25 / 70 30 40 40 GRANTS.......................... 49 26 52 27 / 60 30 40 40 QUEMADO......................... 52 27 53 31 / 60 30 30 20 GLENWOOD........................ 64 33 64 36 / 20 10 10 10 CHAMA........................... 44 20 45 25 / 80 50 80 60 LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 29 49 33 / 60 50 60 50 PECOS........................... 51 28 49 31 / 60 50 60 50 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 24 46 26 / 70 60 50 40 RED RIVER....................... 40 21 38 24 / 80 70 60 50 ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 22 41 25 / 70 70 60 50 TAOS............................ 47 25 48 27 / 60 50 50 30 MORA............................ 47 25 45 29 / 60 70 60 50 ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 55 29 / 40 40 40 30 SANTA FE........................ 50 28 51 31 / 50 50 50 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 30 53 33 / 40 30 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 35 55 37 / 40 30 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 38 58 40 / 30 30 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 34 59 35 / 30 20 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 34 59 35 / 40 20 40 30 LOS LUNAS....................... 59 38 61 39 / 30 20 30 30 RIO RANCHO...................... 56 36 58 38 / 40 30 40 30 SOCORRO......................... 60 37 63 40 / 30 20 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 30 51 33 / 50 40 50 50 TIJERAS......................... 52 32 54 35 / 40 40 50 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 27 54 31 / 30 30 40 40 CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 51 31 / 30 30 40 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 31 55 34 / 20 20 40 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 59 34 60 37 / 10 10 20 20 RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 54 34 / 10 10 30 20 CAPULIN......................... 46 28 45 28 / 70 60 40 30 RATON........................... 48 29 47 28 / 70 60 40 30 SPRINGER........................ 50 28 49 29 / 50 50 30 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 51 28 49 30 / 50 50 40 30 CLAYTON......................... 55 34 54 35 / 60 30 30 30 ROY............................. 56 32 53 33 / 40 30 30 30 CONCHAS......................... 63 36 61 36 / 30 30 30 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 64 36 61 37 / 20 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 69 38 63 38 / 30 20 20 30 CLOVIS.......................... 69 39 63 39 / 20 10 20 30 PORTALES........................ 70 40 64 40 / 10 10 20 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 71 39 64 40 / 10 10 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 74 43 69 44 / 5 5 10 20 PICACHO......................... 66 37 62 39 / 5 5 20 20 ELK............................. 59 34 58 36 / 5 5 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NM505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DOMINATES THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LONG STRETCH OF FINE SPRING WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AND STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND TAKING ON AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A FEW DEGREES C WARMER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY SO THE FORECAST WILL ESSENTIALLY BE AN ADJUSTED PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID 60S NORTH COUNTRY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITHIN A MILE OR TWO OF THE LAKE. THAT SAME NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE INFLUENCE IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO CAPTURE ITS PROGRESSION FAIRLY WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY THAT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST 925MB TEMPERATURES SEEN YET (+12/+13C) IN THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. THUS SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND... WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WIND. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE STRONGEST LAKE BREEZE PUSH INTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORELINE DOWN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ON MONDAY... A BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES... AS A WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA... SUPPRESSING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOW 70S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... SPARKING OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. TROUGHING CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FEW DIURNAL & OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE TROUGH...OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THIS STRETCH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER BACK IN HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY DIRT EASTWARD AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH EJECTING CUT-OFF LOWS... MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK... SO STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 15Z TAF AMD. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THIS FLOW A BIT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH TAFS REFLECTING THIS TIMING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 12 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH WAVES UNDER 2 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXPECT TRUE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A DRY AND STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH AND BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...CHURCH AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
855 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF 2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF 2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AERODROMES...BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE KISN WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS A RISE BACK TO VFR MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN AT KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 SHORT TERM UPDATED WITH THE TIME LAGGED HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR POPS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. SMOOTH THE POPS WITH RADAR LOOPS AS GUIDE. COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SHALLOW COOL WEDGE OF AIR POOLING TO THE WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME SLEET POTENTIAL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP RAIN=SNOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS TO BE JUST A BRIEF PERIOD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 18 UTC AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN REGARDING HOW WELL WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON WARM GROUND AND ROADS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF SOUNDINGS AT DICKINSON AND MINOT FROM THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RAP ITERATIONS AVAILABLE AS OF 0230 UTC...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST FOR A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A BLEND OF THE 21 UTC BIAS CORRECTED HIGH RESOLUTION SUITE AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AND WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE WARM GROUND AND ROADWAYS. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...FOR BOWMAN AND HETTINGER...ARCHING THROUGH DICKINSON...KILLDEER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODEL ITERATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 A WET AND INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...SNOW...AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH. FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING SEVERE. THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GET GOING. THIS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY. A STRONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO +9C IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW RIDING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SOUTHWEST...AND PARTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THREE HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW AT DICKINSON SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE FROST POINT EXCEEDING THE TEMPERATURE WITHIN A SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH RESPECT TO ICE. ALL THIS POINTS TO POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WPC AND RAPID CITY WFO...WE DECIDED ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SNOW LIKELY WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN...SHIFTING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN BORDER...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE WESTERN EDGE INTO DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXIST FOR FAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...MAINLY LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ATOP A LOW LEVEL 35KT 850MB JET WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A COUPLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SEEN WITHIN THE EMBEDDED FLOW. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW WORKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A 700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...AND MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELD AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-18Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST AND NORTH..AND RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE ABOVE CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOISTURE POOLING INTO THIS AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS. THE LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF A WET PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL ENVELOPE ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK SATURDAY MORNING THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KMOT. KISN WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND BUT MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LOW VIS IN SNOW. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-018-019- 021-032-033-040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT 04Z FROM JUST WEST OF ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO ABOUT MAYVILLE-HILLSBORO TO NEAR VALLEY CITY. IT CONTINUES ON A GOOD PACE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD GET THROUGH FARGO BUT EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR A WARROAD TO FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO THEN BACK INTO FAR SE CORNER OF ND SATURDAY MORNING. ISSUE IS RAIN AREA MOVING NORTH...IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO QPF FCST. INCOMING 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DRY SLOT INTO MUCH OF THE RRV AND NW/WCNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MAIN HEAVY RAIN AREA SITS UP IN CNTRL AND WRN ND. HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF FARGO NORTHEAST TOWARD FOSSTON-BAGLEY. DID TWEEK GRIDDS FOR A BIT BETTER TEMP GRADIENT USING HRRR AND TWEEKED POPS/WX. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT SO A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ND AND ASSOCIATED SHRA ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM S CENTRAL ND ARCING NE TO THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES PUSH THIS BOUNDARY A BIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SW-NE BY MORNING. INITIALLY FA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN BUT PROPAGATE NNE AND RIDE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF EXPECTED BOUNDARY. JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL DETERMINE BEST LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. WITH SHOWALTERS AROUND ZERO AND A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD T. WITH SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL SEE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN HINGING ON BOUNDARY SET UP. UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA ALSO SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT BEING PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING ON COLD SIDE OF TROUGH AND IMPULSES EJECTING NNE FROM UPPER LOW COULD SEE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. MODELS DID TREND A BIT WEST WITH PCPN SHIELD HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE WESTERN FA/DVL BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY SUNDAY AM COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 1-2 INCHES. PCPN LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA AND AGAIN WILL SEE A SHARP THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 EXPECTING PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH LOSES DEFINITION AND DRIER E-NW FLOW SETS UP AND SURFACE HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST OF GREENLAND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND DEEPENS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATES. THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE MODELS. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE AND WED. HIGH TEMPS THU WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO AND FRI TEMPS WEE INCREASED THREE OR FOUR DEGREES IN THE SOUTH AND DECREASED ZERO TO SIX DEGREES IN THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 COMPLICATED TAF/AVIATION FCST. ALL DEPENDS ON FRONTAL LOCATION. GOING WITH IDEA OF FRONT SATURDAY MORNING STALLING OUT NR A WARROAD-FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO. THAT WOULD BE ALL BUT BEMIDJI IN THE NORTH WIND AND IFR-MVFR CIGS. BEMIDJI WOULD STAY VFR. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...BEST BET FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DEVILS LAKE. LOOK FOR A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ESP DVL REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS OR MAYBE HIGHER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS WELL. DAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ UPDATE... ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER 600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND 720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM. AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ AVIATION... 1612/1712 TAFS... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90 HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80 GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60 PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90 DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041- 044>046-050. TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 17/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER 600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND 720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM. AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ AVIATION... 1612/1712 TAFS... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90 HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80 GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60 PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90 DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041- 044>046-050. TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW...KCDS IS NOW MVFR AFTER SPENDING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY IFR. SHOWERS WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD REMAIN OUT SIDE THE RANGE FOR VICINITY OR OVER THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUDING ANYTHING GIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE IF A STRAY SHOWER COULD IMPACT KPVW OR KLBB. EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY RANGES BECAUSE OF MAJOR DIFFERENCES... ONE MODEL SHOWING VLIFR AT KPVW AND KLBB WITH THE OTHER SHOWING MVFR OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ SHORT TERM... AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL /AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK. CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE. THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS. ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. /29 LONG TERM... THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY. SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST. /05 RMCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...MVFR CIGS...DIPPING INTO IFR AT TIMES...WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SEEING DEFINITIVE COVERAGE AT THE TAF SITES. TAFS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LOW KEY ON CONVECTIVE MENTION FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER CO WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SW FLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SE FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KBRO SHOWS AN INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WHILE STRONG INVERSION IS IN PLACE ABV 850MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH A NORTH MOVEMENT PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND NEAR 90 OUT WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE WITH LESS CLOUDS. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS TRAP UNDER THE INVERSION. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER END AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MON INTO TUE AS THE BOUNDARY FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY ADVANCES E. THIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THIS CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF INCH TO 2 IN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS. COULD ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 90S WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BOTH NIGHTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW. 12Z MODEL PACKAGE ARE IN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE TYPE FLOW THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES AND RIDGES BECOME AN ISSUE. THE OVERALL TREND FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY WITH TEXAS STILL BE BEING INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NW-W-SW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PIN POINTS TROUGHS IMPACTING OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ON THOSE DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THESE FEATURES KEEP SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE GENERAL TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HELP RAMP UP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IF WINDS RAMP UP FASTER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS AND RIDGES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BECOMING BRIEFLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYTIME. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130- 132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS. STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL ACRS THE SW. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX. TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT. AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW- LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN LATER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS AT RHI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS TAF SITE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING RHI AND GRB. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY ...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......KURIMSKI FIRE WEATHER...MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS. STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL ACRS THE SW. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX. TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT. AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW- LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN LATER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE FRONT. COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT RHI AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING RHI AND GRB. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY ...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......MPC FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E. THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK A TAD HIGHER. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO. SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY. THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......KURIMSKI FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
128 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER NORTHEAST WINDS...AT TIMES BECOMING GUSTY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016/ UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... 01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. THE STUBBORN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...ANCHORED ON BOTH SIDES BY LARGE CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE WE ARE PROTECTED UNDER THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE NOW SHIFTED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS PER EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH IS NOW FULLY IN CONTROL OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT (FOR THE LAND ZONES)...BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES IN THE FORECAST. STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 80 NORTH OF I-4 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY...WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...AND PERHAPS A NEXT DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MARINE... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DECREASE IN THE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD THEN PREVENT HEADLINE CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 63 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 61 84 61 / 10 0 0 10 GIF 80 60 83 61 / 10 0 0 10 SRQ 83 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 81 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 82 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850- 600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW. TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH. TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU. FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER. LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TNGT WITH LLVL DRY DOMINATING. BUT AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES N-S LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN... EXPECT MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP UNDER SHARPENING LLVL INVRN. THE IFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL NE FLOW WL PRESENT A GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TOWARD 19/00Z WL RESULT IN CLRG SKIES AT CMX AND TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SAW/IWD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL) STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB HYDROLOGY...TITUS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 329 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and central MO. Glass .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft. The combination of these short waves and the presence of the somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof passage. An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so. By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain event for gardening and agriculture. For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in the wake of rain from earlier. A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning. This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms focused further east across northern and central MO through this time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the east of the area. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Hawblitzel Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so. By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain event for gardening and agriculture. For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in the wake of rain from earlier. A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning. This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms focused further east across northern and central MO through this time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the east of the area. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Hawblitzel Aviation...Welsh
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 250 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 ...Much Needed Rainfall On The Way For The Missouri Ozarks Region...Wet and Unsettled Weather Through Mid Week .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected. Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on by and drier air moves in. There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2 inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2 and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal. Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting any major issues. Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor activities around the Missouri Ozarks! && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for now. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves in This Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems reasonable based on forecast persistence. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY 83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB... MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION. MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE 700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP. ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID. BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN AROUND 80. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC012 ARE FORECAST AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. CEILINGS FCST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT BKN035 OVC060 BY 18Z MONDAY. AT KVTN...IFR CEILING NEAR OVC009 SHOULD REMAIN IFR UNTIL 14Z MONDAY. AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST. -RA WILL ALSO REMAIN SCATTERED OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SFC OBS AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOWS MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH IFR AT TIMES. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND CONTINUANCE OF THIS TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR TAKES THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE BY 11Z WITH THE REST OF THE MORNING REMAINING DRY. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH SHRA THROUGH 10Z. SE WINDS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDS FOR TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY FOR THE TAF SITES LASTING THROUGH MID EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...MVFR CIGS...DIPPING INTO IFR AT TIMES...WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE RIVER AND MOVE INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT SEEING DEFINITIVE COVERAGE AT THE TAF SITES. TAFS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LOW KEY ON CONVECTIVE MENTION FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL CENTERED OVER CO WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SW FLOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SE FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT KBRO SHOWS AN INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN WHILE STRONG INVERSION IS IN PLACE ABV 850MB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH A NORTH MOVEMENT PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND NEAR 90 OUT WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE WITH LESS CLOUDS. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS TRAP UNDER THE INVERSION. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER END AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MON INTO TUE AS THE BOUNDARY FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY ADVANCES E. THIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THIS CLUSTER COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN HALF INCH TO 2 IN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS. COULD ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 90S WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BOTH NIGHTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW. 12Z MODEL PACKAGE ARE IN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND BUT WITH A PROGRESSIVE TYPE FLOW THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES AND RIDGES BECOME AN ISSUE. THE OVERALL TREND FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY WITH TEXAS STILL BE BEING INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NW-W-SW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASS ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PIN POINTS TROUGHS IMPACTING OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ON THOSE DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THESE FEATURES KEEP SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE GENERAL TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HELP RAMP UP SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BE NEEDED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IF WINDS RAMP UP FASTER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS AND RIDGES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BECOMING BRIEFLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ANYTIME. BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130- 132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170- 175. $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB AND KPVW LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TIMING IN PLACE FOR KLBB AND KPVW FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND WHEN THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW...KCDS IS NOW MVFR AFTER SPENDING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY IFR. SHOWERS WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD REMAIN OUT SIDE THE RANGE FOR VICINITY OR OVER THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUDING ANYTHING GIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE IF A STRAY SHOWER COULD IMPACT KPVW OR KLBB. EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY RANGES BECAUSE OF MAJOR DIFFERENCES... ONE MODEL SHOWING VLIFR AT KPVW AND KLBB WITH THE OTHER SHOWING MVFR OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. JORDAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/ SHORT TERM... AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL /AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK. CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING. FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE. THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS. ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. /29 LONG TERM... THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY. SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST. /05 RMCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CANADA. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MUCH MORE BLOCKY WITH TIME...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FROM CANADA...E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...AND MORE CLDS. STILL...READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND NOT AS CHILLY AS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. BUT RAIN CHCS WL BE BETTER WHEN REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK CROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT PCPN AMNTS WL RANGE FM BLO NORMAL ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA...TO NR NORMAL ACRS THE SW. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 500MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXISTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE ANOTHER STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS AND FIRE WX. TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MILD NIGHT. AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULDNT IMPACT TEMPS MUCH. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS APPEAR SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN WI IS MORE TRICKY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...AND THE FACT THAT THE TEMP GRADIENT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SOME. MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN WI BEFORE THIS TEMP GRADIENT ARRIVES...SO WILL GIVE TEMPS A BOOST. DO THINK TEMPS WILL MAX OUT AROUND MIDDAY OVER VILAS CO...AND IN THE ROUTE 8 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR NE WI WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS PUSH IN AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT SOME CAPE UP TO 200 J/KG NOTED ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO LOW END SCT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WI. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MAIN LONG-TERM FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AS UPR TROF SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MID WEEK. THE BEST FORCING FM THE FEATURE WL LIKELY PASS THROUGH TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PCPN WL PROBABLY HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH DRY AIR AT LOW- LEVELS FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM ANTICYCLONE PASSING THROUGH TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THE UPR TROF WL STILL PROBABLY GENERATE SCT SHRA AT TIMES...THOUGH HONING IN ON EXACTLY WHEN THEY WL OCCUR IS DIFFICULT. THE GREATEST CHC/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE SHRA WL BE OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA...WITH DECRG RAIN CHCS TO THE NE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS HIGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON POPS IN ANY GIVEN FCST PERIOD IS RATHER LOW. THERE WL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST A DAY OF DRY WX AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FM THE W. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY AFFECTING RHI. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH THE FROPA AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE TAF SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE YIELDED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY STILL FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 29 AND OVER DOOR CO. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MONDAY ...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SPOTTY GRASS FIRES MAY DEVELOP EVEN OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......KURIMSKI FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1017 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM TEMPS INLAND AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SHORELINE THANKS TO SEA BREEZES TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR SOME AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1017 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. MOST OF THE RAPIDLY UPDATING GUIDANCE WAS NOT HANDLING TEMPERATURES WELL...WITH MOST ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO LOW FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE LATEST HRRR LOOKED TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS...BUT ITS TIMING MIGHT BE AN HOUR TOO FAST. THE HRRR BRINGS THE SEABREEZE ALL THE WAY WEST PAST WORCESTER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED WINDS USING THE HRRR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME 50S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND PORTIONS OF CAPE ANN. PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLOUDS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WHILE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS WERE ALL NEARLY SKC...THIS ONE WILL BE TAINTED BY A FEW CI IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. STILL...SEVERAL OF THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ARE IN THE MID 30S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS COMFORTABLY IN THE LOW 40S. WITH THESE MINS BEING A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE BUILDING CI WITH BREAKS...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN OVER-ACHIEVE TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. H85 TEMPS WILL APPROACH +9C WITH H92 NEAR +12C OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION IS COOLED...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS THAT REACHED THE MID 70S YESTERDAY TO MAKE A RUN CLOSE TO 80F THANKS TO THE LACK OF VEGETATION AND ALL INSOLATION BEING USED FOR WARMING. THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DECENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE FRONT...THANKS TO VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES CRESTING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTED TO START AROUND 14Z /9AM LOCAL/ AND GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDED BY GRADIENT WIND PROFILE SHIFTING FROM E-W THANKS TO HIGH PRES MOVING E OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS WILL WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE 60S BEFORE COOLING BEGINS WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD 70F BY MID DAY BEFORE COOLING AS WELL. REGARDING THE MARATHON ROUTE...BY THE 9AM PERIOD...AREAS BETWEEN 495 AND 128 SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY MID DAY. AREAS WITHIN 128 INCLUDING THE BACK BAY FINISH LINE MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID 60S BY MID DAY BEFORE COOLING BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH TIME TEMPS MAY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S. NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSE LOW PRES WAVE WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SHIELD UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WEAK LOW PRES WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT NOTING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH OR LESS OF LIGHT RAIN AS IT PASSES MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z BEFORE DRIER AIR SPILLS OVER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TOMORROW... UPPER LVL JET STREAK/S POLEWARD ENTRANCE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WEAK LOW PRES WAVE. GRADUAL PRECIP END THROUGH MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO A FEW SPOTS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THANKS TO DRYING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEFORE LOW LVLS FULLY CLEAR. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION TO SEE CLEARING. H85 TEMPS NEARING +2C WILL BE NEARLY FULLY MIXED TO IN THE W AS CLEARING OCCURS SO HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 60S THERE...MEANWHILE THE E WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S THANKS TO LIMITED MIXING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. MOST MOS GUIDANCE TOO WARM IN THE E...SO LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF 2M TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE PATTERN RESOLVES INTO RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL FAVOR A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH AIRMASSES FROM NORTHERN CANADA TRAILING EACH FRONT. BRIEF WARMUP POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS. CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES THAT SUPPORTED SNOW THERE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN UP MIDWEEK AND EJECT EAST...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE GFS MORE FULLY PHASES THE COMBINED SYSTEM WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOWS A LINGERING SOUTHERN LOBE IN THE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY AS A RESULT THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE OTHERS IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS VERSION WOULD SUGGEST A CLEAN COLD FROPA WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF VERSION WOULD SUGGEST A TRAILING WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN IN QUESTION. WE FAVORED THE SLOWER MORE SELF-CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION...THE GFS IS SOMETHING OF A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER. A NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. THESE ARE NOT EXTREME VALUES PER LOCAL DEW POINT CLIMATOLOGY BUT LOW ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED DRY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S. TEMPS AT 850 MB 0 TO -2C ON WEDNESDAY AND 6-8C ON THURSDAY SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WEDNESDAY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... EJECTING SHORTWAVE FROM THE ROCKIES SPREADS CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. MODEL QPF SHOWS DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS MEASURABLE QPF IN OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING WHILE THE GGEM AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WE FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND SO ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS TIMING. CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS. COLD FROPA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. ENDING TIME OF POPS WILL DEPEND ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TRAILING LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS NOTED ABOVE. A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD END POPS BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE WOULD SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESS AND DELAY THE END OF POPS UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY...JUST IN THE MORNING N AND W OF I-95. THIS TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED AS THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS NOTED EARLIER ARE RESOLVED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ALREADY STARTING. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHES WELL WEST BY LATE TODAY...AND SHOULD STOP JUST WEST OF KFIT-KORH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING. SOME MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ORE-ORH-PYM...THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE MID MORNING. SHOWERS ENDING AND SKIES DISSIPATING. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE E BACK TO THE N-NW. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... WINDS GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT TO THE E TODAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW THE 25 KT THRESHOLD. SEAS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE LET GO BY EVENING. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW... WEAK LOW PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS...SOME RAIN/FOG MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE A SHIFT TO THE N DURING THE DAY ON TUE. DUE TO THE WEAK PRES FALL AND WINDS...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE... TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THURSDAY-FRIDAY... INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THIS MAY BUILD SEAS WITH 5 TO 8 FOOT HEIGHTS FRIDAY...BEST CHANCE ON THE EXPOSED SOUTHERN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY... WINDS LIGHTER STILL TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE E LATE. HOWEVER...WARMER CONDITIONS AND ONLY A SLIGHT RISE IN DEWPOINTS MEAN MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE TEENS IN CT AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ALONG EAST COASTAL MA AND RI...MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE THANKS TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS AS DECIDED YESTERDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW RH VALUES. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TONIGHT NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE ESPECIALLY. RH VALUES NOT AS LOW ON TUE EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N AND SKIES CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE ACROSS WRN MA/CT. MAINLY 30-40 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BY GUSTY OUT OF THE N BY LATE AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER EACH DAY...REACHING THE 60S AND AROUND 70 INLAND. WARMING AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS WILL MEAN LOW RH VALUES. EXPECT INTERIOR VALUES OF 20-25 PCT WEDNESDAY AND 25-30 PCT THURSDAY. COASTAL VALUES WILL BE 30-45 PCT EACH DAY. THE DEVELOPING WARMTH AND DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/BELK/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DOODY FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z LEVERAGING THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TO BETTER TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WORKING UP FROM EASTERN KS AND W MO. THIS RESULTED IN DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BY ONE TO TWO HOURS IN THE SW AND AN OVERALL TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. && .SHORT TERM.../TODAY/ ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 H300 PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A COLORADO CUTOFF LOW AND INTO IOWA TODAY. THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DRIVE A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 18Z TODAY. BROAD KINEMATIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A REGION OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF H700-H500 MIXING RATIO VALUES OVER 4 G/KG OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT IOWA HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE IN NE OK AND SE KS AND IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SW CWA AROUND 12 TO 13Z. IT SHOULD WORK FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 12-18Z AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO 00Z...ELONGATING AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO IMPINGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ENDED RAIN CHANCES SOONER IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S WEST. .LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL BAND/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...AND LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EAST TONIGHT AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LIFT INTO SC IA TOWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY. GFS/EC MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THAN THE NAM...SO WENT WITH A BLEND AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE WESTERN CWA TO BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEF ZONE PRECIP TO THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED SO DO EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING THEN TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH MILDER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING/ ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 WIDESPREAD MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA THROUGH 18Z. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 17Z AND 03Z. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SKOW SHORT TERM...SKOW LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850- 600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW. TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH. TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU. FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER. LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES N-S LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNDER A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME IFR CIGS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SAW...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AFT 19/00Z WILL RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS AT CMX AND TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL) STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB HYDROLOGY...TITUS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 638 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected. Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on by and drier air moves in. There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2 inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2 and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal. Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting any major issues. Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor activities around the Missouri Ozarks! && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions at area terminals today through tonight. Showers will increase from the west today while ceilings gradually lower. MVFR ceilings will become more prevalent this afternoon into tonight as low level moisture continues to increase. The coverage of showers will decrease tonight but areas of light fog and IFR ceilings may develop by late tonight. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 624 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so. By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain event for gardening and agriculture. For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in the wake of rain from earlier. A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning. This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms focused further east across northern and central MO through this time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the east of the area. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 624 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Rain across Kansas and Oklahoma will overspread the entire area through the morning and early afternoon. Conditions will initially remain VFR but ceilings will gradually lower into MVFR through the morning. A few pockets of IFR aren`t out of the question. Back edge of this rain will clear out around noon for areas near the state line with just a few lingering showers before a cold front moves through this evening. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Hawblitzel Aviation...Hawblitzel
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 527 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and central MO. Glass .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft. The combination of these short waves and the presence of the somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof passage. An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 VFR conditions through at least 03Z Tuesday at all TAF sites. Beyond that...MVFR ceilings move into KCOU and KUIN between 03Z and 06Z Tuesday with scattered showers possible. Southeast to south winds will continue through at least 12Z Tuesday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Relatively dry air filtering in from the east at low levels should continue to keep lower ceilings and widespread significant rain to the west of KSTL through at least 12Z Tuesday. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 329 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The dry tranquil pattern comes to an end for most locations over the next 24 hours. The prominent upper ridge currently centered from MS into the Great Lakes will break down and be suppressed well southward with height falls of 30-60m in response to increased upper troffing from eastern Canada into the eastern U.S.. This will allow the flow aloft across the MS Valley to veer to southwesterly bringing an encroaching N/S boundary, an increase in clouds, and the first wave of precipitation which is currently stretching from eastern OK into eastern KS. Rain chances should increase during the afternoon throughout central MO in association with this initial wave of dying precipitation. The continued slow eastward motion of the surface boundary tonight will result in a preferential elongated zone for precipitation across northeast and central MO. Glass .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The deep western upper low/trof will be slow moving and take a while to get here, however ahead of it, a series of weak short wave trofs will translate across the area in the southwest flow aloft. The combination of these short waves and the presence of the somewhat ill-defined and quasi-stationary surface boundary will maintain the greatest focus for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night across central and eastern MO. This focus and the accompanying precipitation threat will shift east Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low/trof finally progress into the Plains and MS Valley with the upper low filling and the trof becoming postively tilted. There are some indications that by Thursday the main thrust of precip may have moved east of the CWA and there will only be a risk of showers until the upper trof passage. An upper ridge builds from the Plains back into the MS Valley during the upcoming weekend bringing warmer temperatures. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so. By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain event for gardening and agriculture. For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in the wake of rain from earlier. A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning. This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms focused further east across northern and central MO through this time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the east of the area. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Hawblitzel Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 325 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Expansive closed upper low over the Rockies will send numerous rounds of rain and a few storms into our area over the next several days as the system slowly spins eastward into the Plains. Most rain chances will be tied to ill-defined weak vorticity maxima rotating around the low, which will be difficult to pinpoint more than a day out or so. By the time all is said and done by Thursday, many areas could see an inch or more of much-needed rainfall. Rainfall rates will be light enough to prevent much runoff making this a very beneficial rain event for gardening and agriculture. For today, the primary focus for rain will be across eastern KS and western MO where a modest shortwave will bring widespread showers and storms northward out of eastern Oklahoma. With the aid of a low-level jet and precipitable water values around 1.5" inches, some locations could see almost an inch of rain with this activity particularly to the south and west of the KC area. Should see a marked decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity later today as it pushes east into northern and central MO where it will lose much of the forcing from the primary shortwave that will be exiting to the north. NAM wants to produce an unstable atmosphere later today which could spark a few storms in the afternoon, but this is likely overdone especially in the wake of rain from earlier. A weak front will track into the area from the west tonight and become quasi-stationary across central MO through Wednesday morning. This may act to keep the higher chances for rain and a few storms focused further east across northern and central MO through this time. Precipitation chances will finally come to an end Thursday as the upper low phases with the northern stream and gets shunted to the east of the area. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Hawblitzel Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 250 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 ...Much Needed Rainfall On The Way For The Missouri Ozarks Region...Wet and Unsettled Weather Through Mid Week .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 There are no changes in the overall forecast with this morning`s update. A lead impulse spiraling around a large upper level low pressure system over the Rocky Mountain Region is currently moving up from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Our first round of showers and isolated thunder will move into southwest Missouri for the morning rush hour. Most areas west of Highway 63 will see rainfall today off and on with the exception of maybe the very far eastern Ozarks. Those areas may see the rain move in by this evening or tonight. There may be a bit of a decrease in the rain chances late tonight across the area before the next widespread of rain chances move in on Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 Another mid level impulse will move across on Tuesday and bring the second wave of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area. Rain chances will be high during the day on Tuesday. Locally brief downpours will be likely. No severe weather is expected. Scattered off and on rain chances will continue through late Wednesday night before this upper level system finally begins to move off to the east of the area on Thursday. There may be some leftover showers early on the day on Thursday but the majority of the weather will move on to the east as the main trough passes on by and drier air moves in. There are no changes in the overall rainfall expected from today through mid week with storm total amounts area wide between 1 to 2 inches...a few locations across southwest Missouri may approach 2 and a half inches. The lack of rainfall lately and the new greened up vegetation will keep any flooding issues at a very minimal. Will still mention a very limited risk for a few creeks and streams to fill up briefly with downpours but really not expecting any major issues. Upper level ridging and very nice Spring time weather is on the way from Friday through next weekend. Sunshine returns and high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s with some 80s are possible. Next weekend is looking fantastic for any outdoor activities around the Missouri Ozarks! && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Vicinity rain showers will affect the early overnight hours with VFR ceilings. Precipitation chances will increase toward sunrise with prevailing light rain expected until the late morning. Ceiling heights should remain MVFR, but will need to monitor the potential for temporary IFR development. Prevailing precipitation will then taper off with residual vicinity rain showers until the mid afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly and ultimately northwesterly behind a cold front toward the very end of the forecast period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 First wave of precipitation lifted through far western MO and southeast KS early in the evening. Next wave was still down in OK/AR and should begin to move in overnight, affecting mainly the JLN terminal again. Precipitation will then affect SGF/BBG during the morning/afternoon hours. Will see ceilings gradually deteriorate into MVFR and possibly IFR during the day Monday. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the taf sites through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention at KCOU after 21z Monday, at KUIN after 01z Tuesday and for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Did lower cigs to low end VFR at KCOU and KUIN with onset of vicinity showers. Otherwise, light southeast winds to veer to the south and pickup a bit. Specifics for KSTL: Mid and high clouds from weather system that will move into the forecast area later today, will remain over the metro area through most of the forecast period. As for rain, slow to move in so kept vicinity shower mention for STL metro area after 03z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to veer to the south and pickup to around 10 kts by 16z Monday. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by mid morning on Monday. Rain to be slow to move in, so just have vicinity shower mention for KCOU by 22z Monday, rest of taf sites remain dry for now. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu have dissipated, so expect just mid and high clouds ahead of next weather system through forecast period. Light southeast winds overnight, picking up a bit by 16z Monday from the south. Rain to be slow to move in so taf to remain dry for now. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 556 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions will continue through much of the evening with increasing rain chances beginning overnight ahead of and along a cold front. Greater rain chances will commence Monday morning and persist well into the afternoon hours. At this time, not anticipating much in the way of thunderstorms until the frontal boundary pushes east of the terminals, though an isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of question. Ceilings should not reduce below MVFR during the frontal passage Monday morning and afternoon. Southeast winds will turn southerly by the end of the forecast period with a sharp turn to the northwest by Monday evening behind the boundary. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...Welsh
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near sunrise or later. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather impacts for this period. A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave "spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon. Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb) winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu. Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at times through midweek. The axis of more abundant moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur. Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends. The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday). && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west, temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter- mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of precipitation has remained across central Kansas and Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability, severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off- again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday. The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations reaching the low 80s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely more successful than the last in producing rain. Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO. The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day. Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday, although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much from the airmass that moves in behind the front. The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes approaching 80F again. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the overall system pushes into the region. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...18Z Aviation Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites, though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle. In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for all three sites. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase from west late tonight into Monday morning. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of the TAF period. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but will subside by sunset. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will subside by around sunset. Browning && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper 70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds spreading into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will remain above average for mid April. Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month. Something we have yet to see this spring. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing, warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front, and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east. Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border. On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s and isolated storm chances return. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Laflin Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 ...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves in This Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and increase today especially over the western half of the area. A little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower to upper 70s depending on cloud cover. Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible but no severe weather is expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016 A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain chances Monday night before another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves in. The only minor change with this forecast update will be increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General 1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches. Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures approaching 80 by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016 VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours. Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday evening. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left out of the 06z terminal forecast. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky. Gosselin && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a corresponding in gusty winds. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday afternoon. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15 knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots. Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well. Gosselin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems reasonable based on forecast persistence. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
840 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...A FRONT MOVING INTO B.C. WONT AFFECT WRN WA EXCEPT TO GIVE WRN WA SOME CIRRUS TODAY....BUT DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN AROUND TO LIGHT NW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG ON THE COAST TUESDAY SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AND WRN WA WILL HAVE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY...IT SHOULD BE THE THIRD DAY OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER FOR SEA TAC WHICH WILL BE A FIRST IN APRIL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR A FOURTH RECORD HIGH. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SET UP ON THE COAST WED...AND THERE MAY BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OUT OF OREGON. .LONG TERM...THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER QUITE ALOT IN THE DETAILS INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW IS JUST FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FOR WRN WA TIMED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS JUST SHOWERY AT TIMES... MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE GIVING LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS E OF THE CASCADES WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AND GOOD VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ALBRECHT KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. NW WIND 6 KT OR LESS BECOMING NELY AFTER 04Z. ALBRECHT && .MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES SITS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST REACHING THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE THERMAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THERMAL GRADIENTS BECOME WESTERLY. BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT WINDS IN THE STRAIT TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOW FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITY FOLLOWING THE THERMAL TROUGH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING. THE MAIN PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED AS A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS ON THE OREGON COAST THEN MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE S WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE INNER COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT OR WED...THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES A PUSH AFTER A WARM SPELL IN THE INTERIOR AND AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL CONSIDER BOOSTING WINDS ON WED FOR BOTH THE COAST AND PUGET SOUND AFTER LOOKING AT THE INCOMING 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS. A WEAK FRONT MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT OR FRI. ALBRECHT && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1035 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME CU POP UP AGAIN LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN STORY WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTEDTO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE. PC && .MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HENTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. DESPITE SOME CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THESE AREAS. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. STILL...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE AIR COLUMN BY LATER TONIGHT. CONTINUED TO BRING IN CHANCE POPS BY LATER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LOWER TO THE NORTHEAST. LONG TERM... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED OVER NORTHERN WI AND PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN WI ON TUE. SOUTHERN WI WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THAT AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY SO KEPT MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LOW FOR TUE AND TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NEBRASKA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO AN UPPER JET. THE FORCING LOOKS MORE PROMISING AND THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN THE MODELS IS AROUND A QUARTER INCH.. THAT WAVE OF PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STILL NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY IN MODEL SOUNDINGS... BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS WI. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL BRING FORCING FOR A FRONT TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI THIS WEEKEND. THAT FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS OR SUNDAY IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WI EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN SITES BY MIDDAY...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN SPEED SOMEWHAT ONCE THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TAF SITES THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER...BECOMING OVERCAST LATE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF MADISON TONIGHT. MARINE... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS AND WAVES TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 23 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...SOUTH INLAND AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY. FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BASICALLY OVER THE GRAND VALLEY HAS SQUEEZED OUT SOME SNOW THIS MORNING. RAP SUGGESTS THIS CIRCULATION REFORMING TO OUR EAST OVER THE ELKS/VAIL PASS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A CONVERGENT LINE EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT ADVISORY AND EXPECT SOME SNOW RATES TO INCREASE AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE RELEVANT WITH HEATING. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN UNDER THE LOW AS WE ARE STILL TRAPPED IN THE MID 30S IN THE GRAND VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 THE BROAD...QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RAP13 ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATED SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER THIS AREA AS A SECOND VORT LOBE COMBINES WITH JET DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY FROM LATE MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WEST ELK...SAWATCH AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH CHANCES LOWER WEST OF A BAGGS TO RIFLE TO CORTEZ LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND WEAKER. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A PARTING SHOT FROM THIS STORM TUESDAY DESPITE THE LOW CENTER BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL SPILL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE CENTRAL VALLEYS SNOW WILL SHIFT TO RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS RISE TO NEAR 7000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOWS DIPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TONIGHT. A BIT WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS MILDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RECOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY BUT THEN RISE ABOVE ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SEPARATE AFTER THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN SHIFT TO LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW THAT COULD BE ACTIVE FOR US FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR MORE. FRIDAY BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND WEST COAST TROUGH...THE DEEPER GFS PULLS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY UP FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 12Z EC HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS. THIS WOULD BE A QUITE MILD FLOW WITH AFTERNOON 700MB TEMPS AT 6C OR EVEN WARMER. RAIN EXPECTED AT ALL ELEVATIONS THOUGH CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE NON OR LOW ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE TREELINE. THE MILD AND MOIST TROUGH PASSES NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... AGAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES EARLY THE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT MON APR 18 2016 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GRAND VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE NEAR THE CENTRAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER ARE DIRECTLY UNDER THE LOW. THIS HAS LED TO IFR/MVFR AT KDRO AND KGJT. AS THE LOW SHIFT EAST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS AT KASE. KTEX SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME IMPACTS FROM THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED AT KDRO AND KGJT THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS FROM KRIL TO KEGE UNDER THE PATH OF THIS SHIFTING CIRCULATION. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ010- 012-018-019. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...15 SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...JOE/NL AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO FILTER BACK IN VIA GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. IT WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 459 PM EDT...ANOTHER EXCEPTIONAL DAY IN THESE PARTS WITH MOST OF US ENJOYING WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...TOUCHING AROUND 80 IN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A COLD FRONT STILL WAS SITUATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ABOUT TO MAKE ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SWEEPING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO OUR REGION VIA A NORTHWESTERLY WIND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN HERE WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL AT ALL AS THE LATEST 4KM BTV WRF HAS BACKED OFF RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HRRR HAS A LITTLE MORE BUT NOT MUCH. FURTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS AS IF THERE ONLY BE SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS IF ANY AT ALL. IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SPRINKLE OR TWO...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE. THE BREEZE COULD GUST TO 30 MPH IN THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS...HIGHER TERRAIN....MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS H850 TEMPS COOL TO ABOUT - 2C. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MIXING VALLEYS LOOK TO CRACK THE 60S...50S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND SLACKENING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TO THE 30S AT NIGHT. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 55 TO 60 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...60 TO 65 VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...STILL IN PLACE FROM EARLIER...BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALLOWS FOR THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN POLAR JET FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FOR HIGHER POPS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AS H850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND +10C. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS WE RETURN H850 TEMPS BELOW 0C. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE THOSE VALLEY TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE 50S WITH 40S FOR THE TERRAIN. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH 20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE REGION OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS WOULD IMPLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ARRIVAL OF THE ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS THE GFS BUT DELAYED ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. FOR NOW...WE WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK WITH VFR...LIGHT WIND AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH WORKING THROUGH THE TAFS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD MAINLY VFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WE DID ASSIGN A PROB30 GROUP FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR AT KGFL BETWEEN 03Z-09Z BUT OTHERWISE LEFT ALL THE TAF SITES AT VFR STATUS. ASSIGNED A VCSH AT KALB AND KPSF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH...AND MOST CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED WITH BASES 40-60 (FEW AT KPOU) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 5KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND INCREASING TO 8-12KTS LATER BY TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS (HIGHEST AT KPSF AND KALB)...BY MIDDAY. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 100 PM TO 600 PM EDT ON TUESDAY... ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OVER FIVE DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BRING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL TO REALLY ANY OUR REGION. THERE MIGHT BE A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW...THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS. PER COORDINATION WITH OUR MAIN FIRE WEATHER USERS...WE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AGAIN FOR ALL AREAS...INCLUDING ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WINDS WILL RELAX BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A NEARLY FULL RECOVERY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WIND SHOULD LIGHTER...FROM THE NORTHWEST...5-15 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP TO VERY LOW LEVELS... 15-25 PERCENT. BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERN BREEZE 5-15 MPH. AT THIS POINT...AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY...DROPPING TO THE 30S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...HWJIV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 ...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 HAVE UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z LEVERAGING THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TO BETTER TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP WORKING UP FROM EASTERN KS AND W MO. THIS RESULTED IN DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BY ONE TO TWO HOURS IN THE SW AND AN OVERALL TIGHTENING OF THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. && .SHORT TERM.../TODAY/ ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 H300 PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A COLORADO CUTOFF LOW AND INTO IOWA TODAY. THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DRIVE A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 18Z TODAY. BROAD KINEMATIC LIFT COMBINED WITH A REGION OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION DRIVER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON OF H700-H500 MIXING RATIO VALUES OVER 4 G/KG OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT IOWA HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE IN NE OK AND SE KS AND IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SW CWA AROUND 12 TO 13Z. IT SHOULD WORK FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 12-18Z AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO 00Z...ELONGATING AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO IMPINGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ENDED RAIN CHANCES SOONER IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE THE RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 60S WEST. .LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016 LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. INITIAL BAND/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...AND LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EAST TONIGHT AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LIFT INTO SC IA TOWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL...HOWEVER MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY. GFS/EC MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THAN THE NAM...SO WENT WITH A BLEND AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE WESTERN CWA TO BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEF ZONE PRECIP TO THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED SO DO EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING THEN TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH MILDER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON/ ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO WARRANT FM OR TEMPO GROUP. KEPT MIN CIGS AT 1000FT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED TO IFR IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SKOW SHORT TERM...SKOW LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 A shortwave continues to lift through northeast KS per the 20Z water vapor imagery. Meanwhile the cut off upper low remains over northwest CO. Surface obs indicate the trough axis is just to the east of the forecast area with some drier and cooler air advecting in from the northwest. Subsidence from the shortwave is expected to keep the weather dry over the forecast area for tonight. The main concern is whether some fog develops. This is highly dependent on whether skies clear out and the boundary layer radiates outs. Latest visible satellite continues to show expansive stratocu deck across western KS and the 18Z RAP has trended towards keeping a stratus deck over the forecast area through the night. Since the HRRR/RAP/SREF show visibilities remaining at 5 miles or better, will keep the mention of patchy fog across north central KS inserted by the prev shift since some breaks in the clouds are possible, but will not expand it and any further. Later shifts will need to watch the cloud trends for clearing. Then the potential for fog ,even dense fog, would increase. Have not made many changes to the low temp forecast as models continue to support readings from the mid 40s across north central KS to the lower 50s in east central KS as a result of some weak cold air advection. For Tuesday, models show the potential for another shortwave to round the bottom of the cut off low and lift north. As it does, there is some modest moisture return as 850 winds veer around more to the southeast. So with the prospects for increasing large scale forcing, chances for precip increase through the afternoon from south to north. Models show very modest instability developing given mid level lapse rates remaining around 6 C/km. The GFS is most aggressive in developing some instability across east central KS tomorrow afternoon, but it also tries to break out the sun and heat things up a little more. So while some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, think rain showers are most likely. Models do not show any warm air advection and feel like clouds are going to be hard to scour out. With this in mind, have afternoon highs in the mid and upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 309 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Models are trending to a stronger wave rotating around the upper low Tuesday night into Wednesday, with good forcing aloft interacting with increasing moisture for another likely moderate, fairly widespread rain event. It again appears to occur in the late Tuesday night to Wednesday morning hours but a lack of consistent training and instability still weak at best should keep amounts from being troublesome. May have some clearing in the afternoon for temps to push into the middle to upper 60s but this could be a challenge depending on precip and temp timing. Not expecting much chance for fog development WEdnesday night with northwest winds increasing behind a weak surface trough and some high cloud remaining. The northwest winds will not be able to bring in much air in this stagnant pattern and warmer temps are anticipated for Thursday. Will need to maintain some small pops for most areas through early Thursday with the mean upper trough still upstream. Longer range periods continue to show upper ridging in control of the central CONUS into at least Saturday, but models become increasingly into disagreement in handling of energy along nearly the Pacific coast of much of North America. The 12Z ECMWF weakens much of this energy, allowing for at least weak ridging aloft to persist, allowing a front to sink south through the Northern Plains, while the 12Z GFS and a few of its ensembles brings a shortwave on east through the Southern Rockies over the weekend with a more obviously wet and stormy scenario for late Sunday into Monday. With many other GFS ensembles differing significantly, have kept precip chances somewhat reduced compared to the GFS. Highs still look to rise toward 80 for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Don`t have much confidence in the CIGS forecast this afternoon. Models continue to show CIGS scattering out but satellite and obs show CIGS around 1 KFT still holding in strong across southwestern KS. Because of this have held onto the IFR and MVFR CIGS longer into the forecast period. There remains a potential for fog overnight, however with the low confidence in the CIGS forecast I`m not sure if there will be enough cooling for fog formation. Later shifts will need to monitor this through the evening. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
542 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA OVER W LA FROM POE TO LCH AND CAMERON EXTENDING OFFSHORE...MOVING EAST AT ~10 MPH. THUS...PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT LCH...AND AT AEX SHORTLY AS IT ARRIVES. FOR BPT...HEAVIEST CONVECTION OUT OF SE TX...WITH ONLY INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. AT LFT/ARA...LEFT TEMPO GROUP FOR INTERMITTENT SHRA AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BE CLOSE TO DISSIPATION BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER ACADIANA. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT REMAINING SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SE TX/W LA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD EAST AS WELL. PLACED PROB30 GROUP FROM 18-24Z FOR TSRA & IFR VSBY/CEILINGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ DISCUSSION... IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN...EVENTUALLY SENDING A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT N-S ORIENTED COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ACTUALLY DEPICTS IT INDICATING WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AS IT REACHES INTO EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION THE BEST...AND IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN GENERALLY WITHIN A REGION BOUNDED BY THE CURRENT WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE ARTHUR LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OF QUICKLY TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A MARKSVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH INDICATIONS IN THIS AND OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS TWD TUE MORNING. MSTR CONTENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...MEANING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND WILL ALSO BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE CURRENT 7AM TUE EXPIRATION TIME. PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THE WATCH WILL EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXTENDED IN TIME LATER SHIFTS. FCST BEYOND THIS TIME BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE REGION...WITH YET MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CDFNT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. 13 MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPENING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 76 64 79 / 60 70 50 50 LCH 69 77 68 79 / 80 70 40 50 LFT 67 78 67 80 / 40 40 30 40 BPT 68 77 68 79 / 70 90 40 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-073. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054- 073-074. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ215-216. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450- 452-455. && $$ AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
453 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROF OVER THE ROCKIES FCST TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN...EVENTUALLY SENDING A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...A SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...CURRENT N-S ORIENTED COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ACTUALLY DEPICTS IT INDICATING WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AS IT REACHES INTO EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION THE BEST...AND IS IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. IT SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN GENERALLY WITHIN A REGION BOUNDED BY THE CURRENT WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE ARTHUR LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OF QUICKLY TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF A MARKSVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER EAST TEXAS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH INDICATIONS IN THIS AND OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS TWD TUE MORNING. MSTR CONTENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...MEANING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND WILL ALSO BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THUS...EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...OPTED TO LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE CURRENT 7AM TUE EXPIRATION TIME. PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THE WATCH WILL EITHER BE CANCELLED OR EXTENDED IN TIME LATER SHIFTS. FCST BEYOND THIS TIME BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSES THE REGION...WITH YET MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE CDFNT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. 13 && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPENING MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 76 64 79 / 60 70 50 50 LCH 69 77 68 79 / 80 70 40 50 LFT 67 78 67 80 / 40 40 30 40 BPT 68 77 68 79 / 70 90 40 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041-073. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054- 073-074. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ215-216. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450- 452-455. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
128 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .AVIATION... FOR THE 18/18Z TAFS...AXIS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAYY RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX INTO SW AR AND WRN LA. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED TYR/GGG AND WILL SOON AT LFK WHILE ELD/MLU REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE ERN EDGE OF THE RAIN. CIGS WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PD WITH SOME OCCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR. DO EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS NEW IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN E/SE COMPONENTS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ DISCUSSION... A N-S BAND OF SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA...REMAINS PERSISTENT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE SHRA SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ENTRAIN EWD ALONG AN ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THE ONGOING CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AS HAS THE 12Z GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER TO DO SO AND MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION OVER AREAS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING. GIVEN THE SLOWING TRENDS WITH THE LEAD GUST FRONT ALONG THE ONGOING MCS OVER EXTREME SE TX/WRN GULF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO KICK EWD...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELIES OVER EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA/SW AR WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL ONLY SHUNT A BIT FARTHER EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DID RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE LAST N-S TIER OF NCNTRL LA PARISHES AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W WHERE THE SHRA HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. SFC/MLCAPES REMAIN NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHILE THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER SE TX EXTENDED NE INTO NCNTRL LA LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED/NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN IN PLACE. DID EXPAND HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ANOTHER COLUMN OF COUNTIES/PARISHES E PER THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THUS FAR DURING THIS EVENT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA ATTM. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE RAIN-COOLED AREAS...AS THEY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 63 75 64 / 100 80 80 50 MLU 77 60 75 63 / 50 40 60 50 DEQ 69 62 71 61 / 100 80 80 60 TXK 69 63 73 62 / 100 80 80 60 ELD 74 60 74 63 / 70 70 80 60 TYR 72 65 74 64 / 50 80 80 50 GGG 70 64 74 63 / 60 80 80 50 LFK 71 66 75 65 / 100 80 70 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059-060- 070-071. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001-002-010-017. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 19/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... A N-S BAND OF SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA...REMAINS PERSISTENT LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE SHRA SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ENTRAIN EWD ALONG AN ATTENDENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THE ONGOING CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AS HAS THE 12Z GFS...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER TO DO SO AND MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION OVER AREAS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING. GIVEN THE SLOWING TRENDS WITH THE LEAD GUST FRONT ALONG THE ONGOING MCS OVER EXTREME SE TX/WRN GULF...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO KICK EWD...THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH END CATEGORICAL/HIGH LIKELIES OVER EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA/SW AR WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL ONLY SHUNT A BIT FARTHER EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DID RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE LAST N-S TIER OF NCNTRL LA PARISHES AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THESE AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W WHERE THE SHRA HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. SFC/MLCAPES REMAIN NON-EXISTENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHILE THIS MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER SE TX EXTENDED NE INTO NCNTRL LA LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED/NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN IN PLACE. DID EXPAND HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ANOTHER COLUMN OF COUNTIES/PARISHES E PER THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THUS FAR DURING THIS EVENT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA ATTM. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE RAIN-COOLED AREAS...AS THEY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 63 75 64 / 100 80 80 50 MLU 77 60 75 63 / 50 40 60 50 DEQ 69 62 71 61 / 100 80 80 60 TXK 69 63 73 62 / 100 80 80 60 ELD 74 60 74 63 / 70 70 80 60 TYR 72 65 74 64 / 50 80 80 50 GGG 70 64 74 63 / 60 80 80 50 LFK 71 66 75 65 / 100 80 70 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059-060- 070-071. LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001-002-010-017. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1258 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH VEERING WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH NRN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAS SLOWLY SINKING THROUGH NRN UPPER MI. LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 850- 600 MB FGEN AND DEEPER SATURATION WAS MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW. TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z WITH A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN LAGGING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF NORTHERN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK DISORGANIZED FORCING AS THE STRONGER FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTH BUT WITH THE SLOWER FRONT...TEMPS TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH. TONIGHT...SOME LOW END POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRUSHING FAR WRN UPPER MI TUE INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA AND ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE NRN U.S. AND SHEAR THE PLAINS UPPER LOW INTO A TROUGH THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE AREA WED INTO THU. FRI LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART (NEWEST GFS RUN NOW COMING IN WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW OVER THE W LATE...BUT ALL OTHER MODELS ARE DRY) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. CERTAINLY WILL BE COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP NEAR OR BELOW 0C BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THU. HAVE HIGHS ON FRI IN THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER. LOW CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE 00Z/18 GFS SHOWS WAA RAIN/SNOW LATE FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE 12Z/17 ECMWF IS DRY. MODELS ALL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AOB 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL RUN WITH A BLEND OF MODELS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP UNDER A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SAW AND PUT THEM IN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT. KCMX WILL HAVE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AFT 19/00Z WILL RESULT IN LIFTING CIGS AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT AT SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 EXPECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT N WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 CONTINUING TO MONITOR A COUPLE OF RIVERS NEARING ACTION (BANKFULL) STAGE...THE LOWER PORTION OF THE STURGEON RIVER (BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTY) AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. EVEN IF THESE RIVERS EXCEED ACTION STAGE...THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OVERALL VERY MINOR IMPACTS FOR SPRING SNOWMELT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB HYDROLOGY...TITUS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 340 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 The upper low currently over the Rockies will move ewd very slowly tonight. As it does, the band of precip over wrn and portions of central MO will also slowly move ewd. Believe much of the precip will be rather light, but there are some indications of more shower activity, perhaps with some TS tonight. Mdl solns are varied, but believe the bulk of the precip will weaken somewhat as it moves ewd and pulls to the north. A weak sfc boundary shud keep precip focused across nrn and wrn portions of the CWA late tonight. This boundary is coupled with the focus of a moderate LLJ which shud help sustain precip until shortly after Midnight. Have kept likely PoPs into Tues morning, but this continues to be more uncertain. Tilly .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 A longwave upper-level RIDGE will dominate the central CONUS thru the upcoming weekend. If it wasn`t for the machinations of a cutoff LOW over the east- central Rockies, this would normally be a warm and dry pattern, much like what we saw this past weekend. Instead we will see this cutoff LOW initially move little thru Tuesday and throw disturbances our way in what will be an increasingly moist column, meaning rain chances will be slow to advance from west to east during that time. The best rain chances for the day on Tuesday look to be for areas north and west of STL metro. However, look for a cooler day Tuesday than today due to the increased clouds, with the warmest values over in IL away from the rain, where upper 70s may still be attained, but areas towards northeast-central MO struggling to get much over 70F. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday, opening up as a TROF and passing thru late Wednesday night and Thursday. Now...the track of this key feature is a bit slower and further north than it was 24hrs ago, with the main system center staying to our north, but still coinciding well with a surface cold front slated to move thru early Thursday morning with the upper level support sticking around thru much of the day on Thursday. Certainly will justify the persistent rain chances thru Thursday, but the best rain chances now look to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a strong disturbance ejecting into our region in a moist column. The passage of the main storm center to our north-- if it holds true--will mean more scattered pcpn when this happens Wednesday night and Thursday, depending on how well the front itself can focus things, but its timing and convergence from a more gradual wind shift look suspect enough to prevent likely PoPs for most areas now. The clouds and lingering rain chances will keep temps in check Wed-Fri, but still at or slightly above normal, especially with the mild nights. The departure of the leftover cutoff LOW system by Friday will mean a more typical result for a longwave upper RIDGE--and back to dry and warm wx for the weekend for most areas once the southerly winds kick back in on Saturday. Daytime max temps may reach 80F again. The GFS has a strong upper level system for next Monday, but not much consensus on this system just yet so PoPs will stick close to climo which is around 30% for this time of year. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 18 2016 Area of rain across wrn MO will be the forecast focus thru this TAF period. Guidance for this event is somewhat mixed, but believe precip will redevelop this afternoon and impact KCOU/KUIN this evening. This precip may impact KSTL/KSUS/KCPS around sunrise Tues morning. However, believe the bulk of the precip will remain NW of the terminal. Coverage of precip on Tues is more uncertain and have kept only mention of VC for now with questions on location and coverage. Tilly && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 333 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 332 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Water vapor imagery and H5 heights indicate the extensive closed low still positioned over the inter-mountain west with cold front currently moving through eastern Nebraska and Kansas, extending down into the Texas panhandle. At the regional level, band of heavier precip has moved northeastward through the morning and early afternoon, gradually weakening with time as primary forcing remained north across Iowa. Scattered showers remain on the backside of the main band, and the HRRR has done a great job with the overall precip trend. With a few hundred joules of CAPE, might see an isolated thunderstorm or two with this scattered activity. Western half of the CWA should see a downward trend in activity towards evening. Another vorticity maxima will peel off from the main low late tonight into Tuesday morning. Cold front looks to stall across the region from southwest to northeast Missouri. Greater chances for precip will focus near this diffuse cold front and with 600-800 J/kg of CAPE forecast Tuesday afternoon, expect to see thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms expected once again Wednesday in somewhat of a wash-rinse-repeat cycle. Upper low finally begins to eject into the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, eventually merging into the northern stream flow. As the trough passes to the north of the region, we could see a few more showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Upper level ridging will build into the central conus as we head into the weekend, bringing warm temperatures and relatively quiet weather. The next system to watch will be a trough ejecting out of the central Rockies the beginning of the next work week. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 Main precip band has moved out of the terminals. Scattered rain showers are still possible through early afternoon. Ceilings should remain primarily MVFR with a few dips to IFR possible. Cold front will move through around 06Z with winds veering around to westerly then northwesterly by tomorrow morning. MVFR cigs may scatter out briefly this evening before returning between 10-12Z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...PMM Aviation...PMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 AM PDT MON APR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY AND TUE...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AIR MASS. BUT...WILL SEE CHANGES LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW USHERS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OFFSHORE WILL DRAW CLOSER...BRINGING A CHANCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER LOW PRES WILL APPROACH REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WINDS ON THE COAST BECOMING ON SHORE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA IS STARTING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THESE CLOUDS ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THAT THIS STRATUS (AND POSSIBLY FOG) WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO STRATUS WAY OFFSHORE TO THE NW THAT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN OREGON/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WATERS TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...BUT HAVE KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE COAST. WILL WATCH HOW THESE CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TJ PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE REGION...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ANCHORED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AM... WILL SEE VARIABLE CIRRUS DRIFT ACROSS REGION TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED...SO NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND TODAY AS SAW ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH CROSS-CASCADES GRADIENT STILL RUNNING AROUND 4.5 TO 5 MB OFFSHORE...WILL STILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AND IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH THERE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO RESUME. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. BIG PLAYER IN THE WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT NOW SITS WELL SW OF OREGON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY LIFTING THIS LOW OUT AND INTO OUR AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NE...WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT NE AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS WHY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING SWLY MARINE PUSH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY...BUT SEEMS MODELS MAY BE LATE ON CATCHING THIS AS WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW. WILL TREND TI INCREASING MARINE CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND INTO THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT WED TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH GENERALLY IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY LOWER 70S INLAND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY ON WED. WHILE NORMALLY A BIT EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR THIS SORT OF THING...BEING ON THE HEELS OF A VERY WARM TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF REGION LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...THEN SHIFT THREAT EAST OF THE COAST RANGE BY WED AFTERNOON. ROCKEY .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN ARRIVING FRONT LATER THURSDAY. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH THEN TAKES UP RESIDENCE NEAR THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES...IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MUCH MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE FOR THE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN ABOVE 7500 FEET THURSDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO THE 4500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. CULLEN && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TODAY AS GRADIENTS RELAX AND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KTTD TODAY. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS BUT SOME EAST WINDS CONTINUE EAST OF I205. LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WITH THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING EVEN WEAKER NOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY AFTER SATURDAY. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TODAY TO AROUND 6 FT...AND COULD FALL TO AROUND 4 FT WEDNESDAY. SEAS POSSIBLY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. COLUMBIA RIVER BAR REACHING 9 FT DURING THE EBB THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL DON`T EXPECT BREAKERS SO CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MARINERS SHOULD USING CAUTION ON THE BAR. SCHNEIDER && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...COMPLEX SCENARIO PLAYING OUT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. COLD OUTFLOW FROM DYING CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST HAS SURGED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL BEND...WHICH ONLY THE RAP MODEL PICKED UP ON IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 35-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. STORMS FORMING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GROWING UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO JIM WELLS COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. HOW ALL OF THIS AFFECTS THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION WHERE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE WEST COULD MOVE OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAIN ORGANIZED BUT IN AN ELEVATED NATURE. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED MODIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE AXIS WILL RESIDE BUT WILL GO ALONG WITH NAM/GFS SHOWING HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO SHOW WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE FOR TUESDAY. && .MARINE (TONIGHT)...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM DIMINISHING CONVECTION OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS UNTIL 04Z...THOUGH 07Z FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 12Z FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS AND MAY GO TO 9-10 FEET BEFORE SUBSIDING. EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. && .TIDES...TIDES AND BAY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. TIDES ARE 2-2.25 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED BUT THIS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE. THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PREDICT THE EARLY STAGES OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE OMGEGA BLOCK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY. THUS...A DECREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. YET...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MAINTAINS COPIOUS MSTR (ORIGINATING OVER THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO PER SPORT CIRA TOTAL LPW) OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS WL MAINTAIN SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS PER SREF PROBABILITIES. PER THE WAVEWATCH...SWELL HEIGHTS/PERIODS MAY MAINTAIN MODERATE/HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN...ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/ SUNDAY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC INCREASES MSTR AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. WL ONLY FCST ISOLD CONVECTION SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 82 72 82 71 / 80 50 40 50 30 VICTORIA 69 81 70 82 68 / 70 50 40 50 30 LAREDO 70 88 70 88 70 / 70 30 40 40 30 ALICE 70 85 71 85 69 / 80 40 40 50 30 ROCKPORT 73 81 72 82 71 / 80 60 40 50 30 COTULLA 67 85 69 86 68 / 70 30 40 40 30 KINGSVILLE 71 84 71 84 70 / 80 50 40 50 30 NAVY CORPUS 73 81 72 79 72 / 80 50 40 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO... SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON APR 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARMTH AND SUNSHINE. A STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RECORD WARM DAY IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WERE SEEN TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE SAME AND THERE ARE NO WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA...JUST A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOWER PRES AT THE SFC. THE FORECAST FOR WED IS FOR MUCH COOLER MARINE AIR TO ARRIVE... IF THE PUSH COMES TO THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE FORECAST WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TOO COOL AND I WAS TEMPTED TO WARM UP THE FORECAST QUITE A BIT FOR WED BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN. A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM OREGON SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT ANY PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL EVENING AND THAT ANY TSTMS WILL ONLY BE OVER THE MTNS. .LONG TERM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ONE GLOBAL MODEL OR ANOTHER HAS SHOWN A GOOD SOAKING RAIN...AND OTHER TIMES JUST LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN THE MODELS. TIMING IS USUALLY DIFFERENT WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODELS. && .AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE GIVING LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS E OF THE CASCADES WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON TUE. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AND GOOD VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG MAY FORM ON THE WASHINGTON BEACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. ALBRECHT KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT W TO NW WIND AT 6 KT OR LESS WILL TURN TO THE NE AFTER 04Z. ALBRECHT && .MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES SITTING ON THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MIGRATE E INTO THE INLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES TUE NIGHT OR WED. WEAK HIGH PRES IS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE THERMAL TROUGH. EARLIER HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWED SHALLOW FOG ENGULFING THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS THE FOG BANK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND THE HRRR IS NOW BACKING OFF ON ITS EVENTUAL EASTWARD EXTENT. WILL CUT THE FOG COVERAGE TO PATCHY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MAIN MARINE PUSH THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON WED. FORECASTS WILL LIMIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WED NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THU AND THU NIGHT. ALBRECHT && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
231 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FIRST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE MONITORING SOUTHWARD SAGGING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL ACCELERATION ALONG THE LAKE WITH ABRUPT WIND SHIFT/TEMP DROPOFF. WATCHING THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NE WI AND NOTE SOME INCREASING IN NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE BAY AND DOOR COUNTY LOCALES THOUGH PRESSURE RISE AREA NOT IMPRESSIVE ATTM. MODELS TREND THIS BOUNDARY INTO SE WI THIS EVENING AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER LAKESIDE GUSTS LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TEMP DROPOFF. OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP IS ONLY AS CLOSE AS WESTERN IOWA AND THAT IS LIFTING MOSTLY NORTHWARD. TREND IN MODELS IS FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME LEAD IMPULSES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM SYSTEM TO SLIDE INTO WI. THERE ARE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO QPF WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST...BASICALLY SPLITTING PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH GRADUALLY BRING SOME RAIN INTO SC WI LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD THE CHANCE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO POPS WITH THIS PROGRESSION. MUCH COOLER TEMPS CWA WIDE...ESP IN THE EAST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS WITH NE WINDS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH DRIES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVEL RH FROM 925 TO 850 MB REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 50 JOULES/KG THAT BECOMES SURFACE BASED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 100 JOULES/KG. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES DEPENDED ON THE MODEL. HOWEVER ALL MODELS INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. THE SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEAST BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE PLAINS UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A MORE OPEN WAVE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION DECREASES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE 700/850/925 MB RH STAYS HIGH. THE SURFACE AND 925 MB LOW CROSSES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A DRY WEDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500 JOULES/KG. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN ENDS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY. .MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A RATHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS A FASTER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE LOW BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A COOL EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CIRRUS SPILLING EWD FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM. INLAND VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN STORY WILL BE WATCHING WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP BUFKIT STILL SHOWING FROPA ABOUT 02Z AT KMKE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP ACCELERATING DOWN THE LAKE PNEUMONIA STYLE. NO DOUBT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. VFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES EVER SO SLOWLY CLOSER TO WI. THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA WILL RISE LATE TNGT FOR KMSN AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI ON TUESDAY. NEW NAM SHOWS PRECIP TO BE QUITE SPOTTY WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COVERAGE. && .MARINE... WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED BUT NOT ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVERALL EXPECTING NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH WAVES PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE. A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY THOUGH AT THIS POINT EXPECTING WINDS/WAVES TO BE BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ