Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/17/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
930 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON
AREAL ROADWAYS...EVEN UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SPOTTERS REPORTING
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH UP TO 9
INCHES IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA...ALTHOUGH SNOW HAD ENDED AS
OF THE LAST REPORT. ADVISORIES FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE WITH HRRR AND RAP13 BOTH INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ENERGY SLIDES SOUTH WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH IT AND SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS WILL SEE A
COLD RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE 6K
LEVEL. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW COLD CAN WE GET IT IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL BE LOOKING AT THAT IN DETAIL LATER THIS MORNING. VALLEY POPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH HRRR
FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO BOTTOM LINE...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OF
FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
FIRST PART OF THIS PROLONGED STORM HAS STARTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING WHICH BROUGHT SOME THUNDER STRONG
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR. AS EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPED UP NORTH AND SNOW IS THE PRIMARY
PTYPE. RADAR SIGNATURES THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST BANDED
PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SLANT WISE
CONVECTION IS BEING RELEASED BY UPGLIDE OR ENHANCEMENT FROM A WEAK
COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS COME IN THIS MORNING UNDER THE BANDS. FOR THE MOST
PART THINK ADVISORIES WORKED WELL. MSAS/LAPS DATA SUGGESTS THE
FRONTAL PUSH SOUTH HAS SLOWED THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS ALIGNED
CLOSE TO WHERE WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...AND WINDS ALONG THE TERRAIN
ROUGHLY FROM VAIL PASS TO NUCLA AND BACK ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
AS THE MAIN UPPER PORTION OF THE STORM DIGS INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SLOWER TO PUSH
SOUTH DUE TO THE FLOW BACKING TO MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. THE WESTERN
PORTION MAY BE ABLE TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE COOLER AIR AND
STRONGER ASCENT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN GENERAL HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SHIFT FROM NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK AND THIS SHOULD LINE
UP WITH EARLIER THINKING AND ALLOWING THE ADVISORIES TO DROP.
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE MAIN CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS IT BECOMES
STACKED VERTICALLY...AND THIS IN TURN WILL BEGIN TO PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HILLS FROM THE FRONT RANGE. STILL SOME
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE ENERGY FROM THE STORM
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CIRCULATION...BUT IN GENERAL THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR
VAIL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. EXPECT THE FRONT SHOULD
LEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS BY THIS TIME AND THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL SHOULD APPROACH MOUNTAIN BASES. BEST GUESS
IS 7000 FT LEVEL WILL BE WHERE SNOW BEGINS TO STICK SOME ON
VEGETATION BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BELOW MAINLY MELT AS IT
FALLS...SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS DOWN
SOUTH JUST YET. I-70 CORRIDOR FROM RIL TO EGE AND WEST VAIL ALSO
APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CONFIDENCE. WIND AND MAYBE IN
ADDITION TO SNOW WILL BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE TO THE NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UNDER THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE NOT OUT OF QUESTION ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE. ANY SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE AGAIN NOT HIGH ON PTYPE...RATE...AND
DURATION SO WILL LET NEXT CREW TAKE A BETTER LOOK. RAW DAY TODAY
ACROSS MANY PLACES WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
BEGIN TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THE HEAVIER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED
NORTHWARD AND SPREADING ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOW RATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THEN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SNOW HEADLINES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ATTM THROUGH SOME BREAKS ARE LIKELY BEFORE THEN. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WESTERN COLORADO INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH. BEYOND THIS
WARMING AND DRYING SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
WIND...SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL ALL IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT AREA FORECAST TERMINALS. THROUGH THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER OF IMPACTS TO I-70
CORRIDOR AIRPORTS AND INTO KASE WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOCUSED NEAR A STALLING FRONT. KCNY AND KMTJ MAY BE IMPACTED
THROUGH 18Z AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON KTEX...KEGE AND KASE SEEM THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
IMPACTS FROM LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA WITH WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELDS. THE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE SAN JUANS SO
THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED FROM WEATHER.
TO THE WEST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND STRONG
NORTHEAST GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ003-004-009-
010-012-013-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ025-028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
808 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN THE GENERAL FORM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH
AMERICA THIS EVENING. A DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW RIDGES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH
UP INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DIVING BACK SOUTH INTO THE OTHER
CLOSED LOW FORMING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WHILE FLOODING RAINS ARE A CONCERN ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...NO SUCH CONCERNS CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCT SHOWERS THAT DOTTED THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARE BEGINNING TO FADE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS
SIMPLY TOO STRONG TODAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LEE COUNTY TO PREVENT
ANY KIND OF A SEA-BREEZE FROM FORMING...AND THIS KEPT THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW TO A MINIMUM.
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOCAL FORCING KEPT THE CONVECTION IN
CONTROL TODAY. FLOW WAS A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
EVERGLADES...WHERE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN FOR OUR ZONES THIS EVENING.
TODAY (SATURDAY) WAS THE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
IN OUR FORECAST...AS WE ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
DURING SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT (ALBEIT) GUSTY MID- APRIL DAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
ALSO BE ADVECTING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE
WEEKEND.
MORE DRY WEATHER...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...AND LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SATURDAY NIGHT EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION (17/00Z THROUGH 18/00Z)...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW CONTINUING VFR FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO GUST
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES AFTER 14Z SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL (UP TO 25 KNOTS) LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM KPGD TO KFMY/KRSW.
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE FLOW DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...YET ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING
AND PUSH EASTERLY WINDS BACK UP INTO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 82 62 82 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 65 83 61 84 / 20 0 0 10
GIF 62 80 60 81 / 10 10 0 10
SRQ 64 83 61 82 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 60 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 66 81 65 82 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET INITIATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT THAT THEY WILL, WITH TIMING
BEING MAINLY AFTER 20Z. SPC HAS PLACED SOME OF THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SITES UNDER THE SLIGHT
RISK ARE FROM KFLL NORTH. THE AREA ALSO INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA
IN THE LAKE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
HEAVY SHOWER/STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
UPDATE...
A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRID TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT RANGE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 18Z
IN THE LAKE REGION, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION IMPACTED NRN PALM BEACH COUNTY,
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND NIGHT HAS BEEN DRY. FEW WEST TO EAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS, JUST
NORTH OF SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THESE FEATURE...ASSOCIATED WITH FLATTENING H8-5 TROUGH
OVER SERN CONUS, WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, AND
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND UNRECOGNIZABLE BY SUNDAY AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW REGIME. UNTIL
THEN, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESIDE IN A WARM, SOMEWHAT MOIST/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH /AS LOW AS
-12C AT 500MB/ COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES AND REMNANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. YESTERDAY SAW
ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND TODAYS
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH WITH DOWNBURST THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED NERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK. FLOW WILL PROPAGATE STORMS ENEWD, SO BEST CHANCE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION IS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
DYNAMICS FOR SATURDAY ARE LESS FAVORABLE, BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY
IMPRESSIVE TO WARRANT THUNDER IN FORECAST. BY SUNDAY, DRIER ENE
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC, QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL, HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXIST ALONG ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EASTERLY
WINDS MAY AT TIMES BE GUSTY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERS NORTH
OF THE REGION, THUS ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY, ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT AND HIGH SEAS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 70 79 / 50 60 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 85 71 80 / 50 50 40 30
MIAMI 71 85 70 81 / 40 60 40 20
NAPLES 69 85 65 86 / 40 50 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
901 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRID TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT RANGE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 18Z
IN THE LAKE REGION, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FORM. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH, BUT
BY 20Z, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP HAS A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AS WELL.
FOR NOW, A VCSH AFTER 18Z AND SHRA WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z IS IN MOST
OF THE TAFS. VFR IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES, BUT ANY SITE MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PASS OVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION IMPACTED NRN PALM BEACH COUNTY,
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND NIGHT HAS BEEN DRY. FEW WEST TO EAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS, JUST
NORTH OF SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THESE FEATURE...ASSOCIATED WITH FLATTENING H8-5 TROUGH
OVER SERN CONUS, WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, AND
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND UNRECOGNIZABLE BY SUNDAY AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW REGIME. UNTIL
THEN, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESIDE IN A WARM, SOMEWHAT MOIST/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH /AS LOW AS
-12C AT 500MB/ COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES AND REMNANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. YESTERDAY SAW
ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND TODAYS
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH WITH DOWNBURST THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED NERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK. FLOW WILL PROPAGATE STORMS ENEWD, SO BEST CHANCE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION IS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
DYNAMICS FOR SATURDAY ARE LESS FAVORABLE, BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY
IMPRESSIVE TO WARRANT THUNDER IN FORECAST. BY SUNDAY, DRIER ENE
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC, QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL, HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXIST ALONG ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EASTERLY
WINDS MAY AT TIMES BE GUSTY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERS NORTH
OF THE REGION, THUS ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY, ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT AND HIGH SEAS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 82 70 / 60 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 71 85 71 / 60 50 50 40
MIAMI 86 71 85 70 / 40 40 60 40
NAPLES 85 69 85 65 / 30 40 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
133 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOST RECENT UPDATE INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEM TO NOW BE FOCUSED IN TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS. THE FIRST ALONG THE NW ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW AND THE SECOND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA SPACE COAST AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE 50-60 POPS IN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SECTIONS WITH 20-40
POPS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 3-4 AM AND THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
CHARLESTON SINCE TIDE DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-1.5 FT MLLW
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
WE ALSO RAISED TEMPS DUE TO THE THICK OVERCAST SKIES AND ONSHORE
FETCH.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 OR 35 MPH. NOT
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE
NORTH WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION
SLIDES SE AND FILLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOES
NOT BUDGE KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIC. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOWING
HIGHEST 850-500 MB RH VALUES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD WHERE
WE HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS. POCKETS OF UPPER FORCING LACK FOCUS
AND WE EXPECT PERIODIC RAINS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC MOVING UP TOWARD THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION EAST TO CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES AND FROM SAVANNAH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ENTRANCE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DURING THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
WE CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS SE GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. REMNANT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE FULL HOLD WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR ALL AREAS. EXPECT LIGHTER NE WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID WEEK AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARMER READINGS MAY BE TEMPERED BY A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAINS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE STARTING AROUND 10Z. IFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WILL
DEFER THIS POTENTIAL TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AS WINDS CLIMB TO 15-20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS REACH
AROUND 25 KT.
KSAV...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM OFF THE OCEAN AND
ALLOWS FOR A STEADY LOWERING OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH THEN PREVAILS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID 06Z CYCLE. LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE
RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
MORE SO FRIDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN WE HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
FINALLY CLIMB UP NEAR 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
DURING MOST OF THE VALID 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAV THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCHS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFF THE GA/FL COAST OVERNIGHT...THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST
WITHIN 20 NM. WITHOUT THE DATA FROM BUOY 41008 WHICH REMAINS OUT
OF SERVICE...IT IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS EXIST. AT PRESENT
THE GUSTS ARE PROBABLY JUST BELOW 34 KT BASED ON OBS FARTHER NORTH
AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES DATA. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT SO WE MAINTAINED THE GALES FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR THE WINDS WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 20 KT...BUT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KT AT THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WHERE THE BETTER
GRADIENT EXISTS.
SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
GALES COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS AND ADVISORIES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A BIT LONG DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT THERE COULD SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH/LONG DURING NE FETCH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS..MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
FROM MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY SOME
SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH
EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DEPARTURES AS GREAT AS 1.0-2.0 FT
MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOST RECENT UPDATE INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEM TO NOW BE FOCUSED IN TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS. THE FIRST ALONG THE NW ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW AND THE SECOND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA SPACE COAST AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE 50-60 POPS IN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SECTIONS WITH 20-40
POPS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 3-4 AM AND THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
CHARLESTON SINCE TIDE DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-1.5 FT MLLW
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
WE ALSO RAISED TEMPS DUE TO THE THICK OVERCAST SKIES AND ONSHORE
FETCH.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 OR 35 MPH. NOT
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE
NORTH WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION
SLIDES SE AND FILLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOES
NOT BUDGE KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIC. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOWING
HIGHEST 850-500 MB RH VALUES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD WHERE
WE HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS. POCKETS OF UPPER FORCING LACK FOCUS
AND WE EXPECT PERIODIC RAINS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC MOVING UP TOWARD THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION EAST TO CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES AND FROM SAVANNAH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ENTRANCE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DURING THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
WE CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS SE GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. REMNANT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE FULL HOLD WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR ALL AREAS. EXPECT LIGHTER NE WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID WEEK AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARMER READINGS MAY BE TEMPERED BY A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...EXPECT VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. FAIRLY DRY
AIR FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
KSAV...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE FOUND IN
THIS AREA...A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WE MAINTAINED VFR VSBYS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCASIONALLY DROP VSBYS TO 5 SM OR LOWER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LESS
SUPPORTIVE AND THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR CEILINGS AS OF LATE SO WE SHOW NO LOWER THAN MVFR. SIMILAR TO
KCHS...GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAV THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCHS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFF THE GA/FL COAST OVERNIGHT...THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST
WITHIN 20 NM. WITHOUT THE DATA FROM BUOY 41008 WHICH REMAINS OUT
OF SERVICE...IT IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS EXIST. AT PRESENT
THE GUSTS ARE PROBABLY JUST BELOW 34 KT BASED ON OBS FARTHER NORTH
AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES DATA. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT SO WE MAINTAINED THE GALES FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR THE WINDS WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 20 KT...BUT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KT AT THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WHERE THE BETTER
GRADIENT EXISTS.
SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
GALES COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS AND ADVISORIES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A BIT LONG DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT THERE COULD SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH/LONG DURING NE FETCH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS..MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
FROM MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY SOME
SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH
EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DEPARTURES AS GREAT AS 1.0-2.0 FT
MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Clear skies and lighter southeast winds will continue the
remainder of the night. New NAM-WRF model and HRRR both show these
type of conditions continuing remainder of the night. Current
forecast has good handle on this, so no update planned at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Some high-based cumulus have formed this afternoon across the
northeastern half of the state, helping to give a bit of variety to
this otherwise quiet weather pattern. Temperatures are getting very
close to 80 degrees from about Jacksonville-Danville northward,
while mid 70s prevail to the south.
Clouds should be fading out by 6-7 pm, with another night of clear
skies. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Pleasant weather conditions will continue into Monday evening before
we see a very slow transition from the blocking pattern over the east
central U.S. to a more progressive flow pattern by the end of the
upcoming work week. This should bring increasing rain chances,
especially as the once powerful upper low, currently over the
southern Rockies, edges east northeast and weakens with time next
week. Timing of what is left of that feature into our area looks
be late Wednesday through Thursday night, resulting in our best
shower and thunderstorm chances during that time frame.
Until then, a northern stream shortwave and weak frontal boundary
will slip southeast into the lower Great Lakes late Monday into
Tuesday dragging a cool front south across our area, and at the same
time, several weak vort lobes are forecast to rotate northeast from
the nearly stationary upper low over the south central Plains. As a
result, precip chances will start to increase across the west Monday
night into Tuesday but the forcing is quite weak and mid level lapse
rates not very impressive, so low chance POPs will hold, again
mainly for the western half of the forecast area. We should see a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorms over the area,
especially Wed night through Thursday evening as the trof shifts
across the forecast area.
Temperatures will be pleasantly warm again Sunday into Monday with
most areas bumped up a few degrees from guidance. Afternoon readings
will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s both days. The weak cool
front will slip across the area late Monday into Tuesday bringing
slightly cooler weather to the area, with most of our area holding
in the 70s. We should see some slight variations in temperatures for
the remainder of the week, but overall, it appears no significant
cool downs are foreseen with temperatures averaging above normal
as we transition into a more typical late Spring pattern next
weekend and beyond with troffing over the western U.S. and low
amplitude ridging over the center of the nation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Little
bit of AC lift at PIA and BMI, but this should become clear by
start time of the TAFs. Then clear skies will prevail remainder of
the night and into tomorrow. Winds will be southeast this evening
and then become east-southeast overnight...then back to southeast
tomorrow with wind speeds decreasing this evening and then
increasing back to 08-10kts tomorrow during the morning hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
145 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
133 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASE WITH TIME
RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING OF THE COLUMN...WHICH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE WILL REMAIN DRY AND LARGELY
CLOUDLESS OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AS THE
RIDGE DEVELOPS ALOFT...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. DRY COLUMN SUPPORTS LARGE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPS...AND GENERALLY HAVE FAVORED WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
MID/FEW UPPER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. CLOSE TO
THE SHORE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE 50S SATURDAY AND
AROUND 60 SUNDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S APPEAR GOOD.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SEE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE PUSHES BOTH TODAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR/CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A weak upper level disturbance over northeast Arkansas late this
morning continues to edge very slowly east and at the same time
was pushing some shallow moisture/clouds (6000-8000 ft) north into
parts of central Illinois. These clouds shouldn`t have much, if
any affect on afternoon temperatures with the latest forecast
soundings suggesting we should easily mix down from 6500 feet
which should push afternoon temps up a few degrees from the
previous forecast. In addition, as has been the case over the past
few days, dew points will be adjusted downward with the deep
mixing expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. The updated zones should be out by 1045 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. High
pressure to our northeast will continue to bring quiet weather
to the TAF area. A few-sct clouds at around 6000-7000 feet will
be possible, but coverage too limited at this time to include a
group in the current forecast. Surface winds will be east to
southeast at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon and Saturday, and from 5
to 10 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
1023 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...THOUGH DID BUMP MAX
TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID-70S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS AND NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPS AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL HELP WITH QUICK WARMING AND LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BUMPED TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN AROUND PONTIAC...WHERE 925-850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST MID-70S ARE ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIMIT TEMPS
THERE TO THE LOW- MID 50S. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND AND OTHER THAN AFOREMENTIONED TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
SOUTH WILL LET THINGS RIDE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SEE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE PUSHES BOTH TODAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR/CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A weak upper level disturbance over northeast Arkansas late this
morning continues to edge very slowly east and at the same time
was pushing some shallow moisture/clouds (6000-8000 ft) north into
parts of central Illinois. These clouds shouldn`t have much, if
any affect on afternoon temperatures with the latest forecast
soundings suggesting we should easily mix down from 6500 feet
which should push afternoon temps up a few degrees from the
previous forecast. In addition, as has been the case over the past
few days, dew points will be adjusted downward with the deep
mixing expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. The updated zones should be out by 1045 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions and SE winds 8-12 kts expected for the next 24
hours across central IL terminals. Scattered cloud cover expected
to develop for the afternoon/early evening...but precipitation
unlikely.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
1023 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...THOUGH DID BUMP MAX
TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID-70S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS AND NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPS AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL HELP WITH QUICK WARMING AND LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BUMPED TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN AROUND PONTIAC...WHERE 925-850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST MID-70S ARE ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIMIT TEMPS
THERE TO THE LOW- MID 50S. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND AND OTHER THAN AFOREMENTIONED TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
SOUTH WILL LET THINGS RIDE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE TAFS REMAIN THE WIND. AREA
AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES HELPING TO TURN
CHICAGO TAF SITES TO A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
PASSAGE...BOTH ORD AND MDW SHOULD BE AT 10-11 KT REGULARLY FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions and SE winds 8-12 kts expected for the next 24
hours across central IL terminals. Scattered cloud cover expected
to develop for the afternoon/early evening...but precipitation
unlikely.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
256 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
CONTINUED QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WITH THE AREA REMAINING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR LAKE INDUCED WINDS
TO TURN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO
TAF SITES...WHILE MORE NORTHEAST AT GYY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. East to
southeast winds around 10 KTS will persist, and cloud cover will
be minimal.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
WITH MOST FORCING WELL OFF THE EAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FEEL THAT
ODDS OF RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THUS KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THOSE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FEW-SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL PASS BY MOST SITES AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FEW-SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL PASS BY MOST SITES AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO WIND AT KIND. BROUGHT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS
EARLIER AT KHUF/KBMG.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 080-110 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 080-110 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN...WITH JUST VERY MINOR
CHANGES OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT SUBSTANTIVE
OVERALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BATTLES AGAINST A HIGH
BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THE KICKER
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROF DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW AS IT OPENS UP
BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST /USHERING IN
MORE MOISTURE/ AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE FOUR CORNERS LOW TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KENTUCKY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS
FIGHTING AGAINST SFC RIDGING AND MAY TREND EVEN SLOWER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. WHENEVER THE LOW DOES REACH KENTUCKY...THE DRY SPELL
WILL BE BROKEN...WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TO END THE PERIOD.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW
MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY DRY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER...ARE PROGGED
TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES TOWARDS
KENTUCKY. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS LATER. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY DUE TO
THE INTERACTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND INIT BUT UNDERCUTTING SOME OF THE POPS
ON WED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY COULD REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR....AT LEAST FOR JKL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN...WITH JUST VERY MINOR
CHANGES OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT SUBSTANTIVE
OVERALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WHILE SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO...BELIEVE THE DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE TAFS
DRY. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
303 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER AS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BATTLES AGAINST A HIGH BLOCK OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE KICKER
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROF DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW AS IT OPENS UP
BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT EAST. THOUGH...THIS LOW IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AND FADE AS IT FIGHTS AGAINST SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STEADY OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO FINALLY RETURN BY
THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW SHIFTS INTO
KENTUCKY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EASTWARD
BUT STILL LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.
GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN RECENTLY ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE MOVING
DEEPER TOWARD OR INTO A DROUGHT...AS WE ARE RUNNING TWO AND A HALF
INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR RAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A
SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW
AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND
40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST
AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA
VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED
IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE
RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND
700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW
SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO
MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A
DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN
NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY
AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO
STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT
BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF
THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS.
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND
DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW
FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM
UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S
BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN RETURNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO IFR BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z...THEN REMAIN IFR SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY
DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES
LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND
EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS
ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL
BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN
A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE
CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS... AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT... PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OR STEADY
RAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH WIND SWITCHING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS... PRIMARILY
FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND TERMINALS EAST. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE WEST SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO KEAR THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
AFFECT KGRI. SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COMES
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS A
50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THREW IN LLWS OVERNIGHT AND HIT CONVECTION HARDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALSO...CEILINGS MAY BE LOWER...ESPECIALLY AT KEAR...AND
WENT MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THROUGH MID EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION CENTERED ON NORTH CENTRAL ND DWINDLING AS OF
0245 UTC...AS EXPECTED AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE RAP/HRRR
SIMULATIONS. WE UPDATED HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC WITH
A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THOSE RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SLIGHTLY DELAY THE RAMP-UP IN POPS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD...AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTE THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW AND THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE
ULTIMATE PATH AND STRENGTH OF ANY PV ANOMALIES AND SURGES OF DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
CHALLENGES WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS...THE 00
UTC NAM JUST ARRIVED AND IS WELL IN LINE WITH GOING EXPECTATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...TIMING THE ONSET OF BOTH IS DIFFICULT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ND AT KBIS. MOREOVER...AN EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ND WHERE
MVFR AND EVEN PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KISN. THE
NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE
AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT IN MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
NOW MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFTING INTO FAR
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A BREAK SOUTH AND WEST WAS
BEING REALIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 25KT.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE
RISES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS LOCATED NEAR BEACH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM/RAP JAMESTOWN SOUNDING SHOWS
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AND LIFT COINCIDING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS...RISING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. THUS LOW LEVEL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WAS THE TREND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD...WEATHER SETUP FOR MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ARE A BIT CONCERNING. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION...BUT A STRONG/DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DECENT AREA OF
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN SNOW WEST...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST. EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAY SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW (MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS) AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS
FOR POSSIBLE MESSAGING THIS AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY.
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEAR GARRISON
AT MID MORNING TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW AND THEN SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS /AS
THAT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING RADAR TRENDS WELL/...BUT DID
HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A BIT
LONGER THAN THE HRRR ALONE WOULD SUGGEST BASED ON UPSTREAM SHOWERS
IN SD AS OF 1445 UTC. THAT SAID...WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES MODELED
IN GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IMPLY BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT VERY
WELL COULD PRODUCE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES 17-23 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM CROSBY
TO TIOGA IN FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXING
DOWN FROM THE STRONG 850MB LEVEL DUE TO SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 7 AM. WILL HANDLE THIS SMALL
AREA WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND COVERS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. UPDATED LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVED EARLIER THIS NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN BUT STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF 35 TO 50
MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THESE ISOLATED REPORTS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT DID
ADD AN AREA OF 30 TO 45 MPH WINS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING THE WEST
RIVER AREA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI AND ACROSS TEH NORTHWEST. WITH
TIME THIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVER WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY BUT GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ISSUE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE H850
LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS STRONG ABOVE 40 KTS FOR THE MORNING.
TEH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINES TO TEH EAST
TONIGHT WITH A BIT IF SNOW MIXING INTO TEH PICTURE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SOME SNOW SATURDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX INTO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF AND FORMS A REX BLOCK BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE
BLOCK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER NORTH WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK MILDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE REX BLOCK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND
AT MIDDAY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AND BEGIN LOWERING BY EVENING.
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EVENING AND SPREAD WESTWARD. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW
FAR WEST THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD AND WHAT FORM IT
WILL TAKE...WITH WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON ITS WEST FLANK AFTER 09 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEAR GARRISON
AT MID MORNING TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW AND THEN SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS /AS
THAT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING RADAR TRENDS WELL/...BUT DID
HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A BIT
LONGER THAN THE HRRR ALONE WOULD SUGGEST BASED ON UPSTREAM SHOWERS
IN SD AS OF 1445 UTC. THAT SAID...WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES MODELED
IN GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IMPLY BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT VERY
WELL COULD PRODUCE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES 17-23 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM CROSBY
TO TIOGA IN FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXING
DOWN FROM THE STRONG 850MB LEVEL DUE TO SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 7 AM. WILL HANDLE THIS SMALL
AREA WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND COVERS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. UPDATED LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVED EARLIER THIS NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN BUT STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF 35 TO 50
MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THESE ISOLATED REPORTS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT DID
ADD AN AREA OF 30 TO 45 MPH WINS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING THE WEST
RIVER AREA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI AND ACROSS TEH NORTHWEST. WITH
TIME THIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVER WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY BUT GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ISSUE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE H850
LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS STRONG ABOVE 40 KTS FOR THE MORNING.
TEH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINES TO TEH EAST
TONIGHT WITH A BIT IF SNOW MIXING INTO TEH PICTURE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SOME SNOW SATURDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX INTO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF AND FORMS A REX BLOCK BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE
BLOCK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER NORTH WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK MILDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE REX BLOCK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN A BREAK MAY OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTS MAINLY EASTERN ND TONIGHT /INCLUDING
KJMS/. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
AT MID MORNING COULD LIFT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL FOR
A TIME TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN AREA-WIDE BY TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS/WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
DEEPENING UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED H850 LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS
WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLE IN LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND
INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NEXT 3 TO
6 HOURS. AS THE SHOWERS MIX DOWN H850 WINDS HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS AT PLACES LIKE DICKINSON...HETTINGER AND GARRISON.
AS A RESULT RAISED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
SOUTH CENTRAL. THEN FOCUSED ON THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM BAND AND
REFOCUSED POPS SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 6 HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0245 UTC AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 09-10 UTC AS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.10 INCHES.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARCHING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONG...AROUND 50 KTS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS...A LOW END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS COUPLES
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. PROGRESSING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MODESTLY
INCREASES AS INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY PERFORMING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA THEN EXPANDS INTO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK AREA AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHERE THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA CENTERED AROUND 00 UTC IF WE DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS HIGH. THEN FROM 00 UTC THROUGH 06 UTC STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL.
RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR. BUT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
AS CONVECTION LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAPE...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AFTER THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH TRACKS TO NEAR
BISMARCK BY AROUND 15 UTC FRIDAY. AFTER 15 UTC FRIDAY THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY...INTO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. THUS AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE COULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF BISMARCK INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO CROSBY AND WILLISTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THOUGH AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY...THEN A TOUGH CALL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TWO SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEYOND SATURDAY...EITHER IT
REMAINS WET AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY PER GFS...OR PER ECMWF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN A DRYING AND
MODERATING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FORMATION OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SITUATED OVER A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TUCKED AWAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS 500MB HEIGHT FIELD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MEANDERS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A WEAKER UPPER HIGH. A DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A POOLED MOISTURE FIELD AND RESULTANT SHOWERS. THE FAR
NORTH LOOKS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE REX BLOCK FORMATION AND
SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT
IS A DRY PATTERN AS THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A SLOW
MODERATING TREND COMMENCES DURING THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GRIDDED DATA MORE OR LESS TAKES A
BLEND OF THE WET GFS AND DRY ECMWF AND ARRIVES AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHUNTS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...THEN 50S SUNDAY...RISING TO THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE POCKETS OF LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
EVERY SO OFTEN...SOME OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
IN RAPID CITY`S CWA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER INTO SOME OF OUR WEST
RIVER COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. STILL THERE IS RATHER STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...HELPING TO DRAW SOME
HIGHER 850HPA DEWPOINT AIR /STILL LESS THAN 10C THOUGH/ UP INTO
THE REGION. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL
PROMOTE RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...SO NO PLANS TO COOL
DOWN ANY OF THE CURRENT NIGHT-TIME LOWS. SHORT RANGE CAM SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO SODAK AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
JUST UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SODAK AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW
POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP
EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD
SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE
DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND
1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL
BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE
VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL
STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
AT LEAST THE KPIR TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...PROBABLY THE KMBG
TERMINAL AS WELL. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ONGOING
TONIGHT WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SO...CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE KABR AND
KATY TERMINALS BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN/BEHIND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH
MORNING IN THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SOMETHING THAT WILL
BE MONITORED FOR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
UPDATE...
AT 10 AM CDT AROUND THE REGION SHOWERS ARE ONGOING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALOFT
OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...RISING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS
SUCH HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER PERFORMED ON HIGHS YESTERDAY. POPS ALSO
REQUIRED ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AT SOME LOCALES FOR BOTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS AFTER NOON.
THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE PAST FEW
DAYS BUT FEEL LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COME TO AN END TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FEATURE FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR ALTITUDE CLOUD BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY THAN THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND
HRRR SUGGESTS. EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR TO PERSIST NEAR AREAS OF
RAIN OVER NORTH MS INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF VFR FOR THE
MEMPHIS INBOUND PUSH. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE WINDS FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD APPEAR TOO STRONG BY SEVERAL KNOTS AND HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED NAM GUIDANCE WINDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1000 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
AT 10 AM CDT AROUND THE REGION SHOWERS ARE ONGOING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALOFT
OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...RISING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS
SUCH HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER PERFORMED ON HIGHS YESTERDAY. POPS ALSO
REQUIRED ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AT SOME LOCALES FOR BOTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS AFTER NOON.
THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE PAST FEW
DAYS BUT FEEL LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COME TO AN END TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FEATURE FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 15/18Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 3-8KTS INCREASING
TO 10-12 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND TUP.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CIGS DROP INTO MVFR. CIGS LOWER
INTO IFR BETWEEN 08Z-09Z AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRT
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 17Z. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z ALONG I-35.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR KSAT AND KAUS...CIGS MAY DROP INTO
LIFR AS THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 68 74 67 76 / 30 30 80 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 68 74 67 75 / 30 30 80 80 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 69 76 68 76 / 40 30 80 80 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 65 73 64 74 / 40 40 80 80 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 66 81 65 79 / 30 50 60 50 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 67 74 66 74 / 30 40 80 80 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 69 77 67 78 / 40 40 80 60 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 68 74 66 75 / 30 30 80 80 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 70 75 69 75 / 30 30 80 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 68 76 68 76 / 40 40 80 70 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 69 77 69 77 / 30 30 80 70 80
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT-SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS IT FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AOA 19Z
THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN TEMPS BEING CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 70S
WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S. THE UA TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEMAND
OUR ATTENTION WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR NWRN AZ AND HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF PER 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS STILL PROGGED TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILST TRANSLATING ESE TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
DRAWING NEAR...SFC LEE TROUGHING DEEPENED AS WELL RESULTING IN
BREEZY SERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA /20-25 MPH SUSTAINED/
WHICH HAS AIDED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S.
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER IS
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S NOTED
ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO...THUS MATERIALIZING THE DRYLINE. JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE ARE WHAT MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUN ITERATIONS. THE RAP
SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE THUS SUGGESTING IT ALSO HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE...WHICH IS PUSHING THE DRYLINE ONTO THE FAR WRN ZONES
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE RETREATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
AS SUCH...IT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHICH MODEL BEST REPRESENTS WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
WILL ARISE IS THE PRESSING QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS
RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS COMMENCING AT NOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND POINTS NWRD...WHICH MORE OR LESS HAS OCCURRED...BUT
RADAR ECHOES WERE LIGHT AND THE ACTIVITY WAS ELEVATED /NO PRECIP
REACHED THE GROUND/. THE HRRR...NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED CI
ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH PLAINS AT 20Z/21Z...CLOSE TO
THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE /WITH THE CAP ERODING BY THEN/.
THE LATTER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS
STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS /WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE/.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE FEATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONSISTING OF A 70-80 KT 250 MB LEFT
EXIT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SBC OF 1500-2500 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL TORNADOES AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
HOURS...LCL/S DROP TO AOA 4000FT AGL WHILST HELICITY INCREASES AND
HODOGRAPHS SHOW THAT CLASSIC VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY DECLINE BUT A CONTINUAL SFC SERLY
FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WELL AS A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSEVERE. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND A 70 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK PUSHES OUT ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS STORMS WILL RE-GENERATE.
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCES OF RENEWED PRECIP TO BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SURGES TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE COULD BE OVERDONE AND MAY
NOT BE AS FAR EAST AS SUGGESTED...SO THE SOUTH PLAINS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS JUST YET. DO AGREE HOWEVER THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
AXIS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP /60S AND 70S/. /29
.LONG TERM...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CUTOFF VICINITY OF THE FOUR-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN THIS
CYCLE IS FOR MORE APPARENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH THE DRY-LINE OFF TO
THE EAST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WE HAD BEEN EXPECTING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LATCHED ON SHIFTING MOISTURE AXIS A BIT
QUICKER EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE A DEEP CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO SEEMS LACKING OR IMMATURE AT BEST
AT LEAST IMPACTING OUR SPECIFIC AREA. STILL...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND GIVE PERHAPS OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE
COORDINATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT APPEAR A
LITTLE GENEROUS ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN
TOTALS HAVE DROPPED A BIT...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE MOST CURRENT
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO ALLOW ANOTHER LOOK OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE. IT REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE TYPES
OF LOWS FIT PAST ANALOGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FAVORING THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALSO WILL STILL OFFER AT LEAST BRIEF SEVERE
POTENTIAL THOUGH AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
QUICKLY USED UP.
A WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
THE FRONT TO LIFT THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATE
ADEQUATE FOR CHANCE CATEGORY. UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPRESSED WITH
COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT.
THUNDER CHANCES BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE
OLD UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST AND HEIGHTS REBUILDING. SHOWER
CHANCES SHOW A SLOW DECLINE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND NOT SHOWING MUCH TO LATCH
ONTO YET. /05RMCQUEEN
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHARPENING UP NEAR THE TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS ERN NM VERSUS 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FA.
A FEW SITES IN ERN NM HAVE TICKED OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTH..THOUGH THE BOUNDARY STILL NEEDS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND 20-FOOT SOUTHEAST ARE INDEED
BREEZY /20-25 MPH/...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AND EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT...FILTERING IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH 20-FOOT SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. HOWEVER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL...CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL COULD AID TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. /29
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 77 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 69 76 68 / 10 40 30 80 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 74 65 73 64 / 10 40 40 80 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 81 66 81 65 / 20 30 50 60 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 67 74 66 / 10 30 40 80 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 69 77 67 / 10 40 40 80 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 68 74 66 / 10 30 30 80 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 70 75 69 / 10 30 30 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 77 68 76 68 / 10 40 40 80 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 69 77 69 / 10 30 30 80 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DISPERSING.
AS OF 10 AM...THE ONLY SITES STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE WERE HAMILTON AND GATESVILLE. THE REMAINING FOG WILL
DISPERSE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THUS WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS BUT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING FOG AND CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO LED US TO LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR
THROUGH LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. UPDATES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KACT AREA...AND ALSO IN RURAL LOCALES
SUCH AS KGKY. THE MORE URBAN AIRPORTS IN THE DFW AREA HAVE BEEN
SPARED THE DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT AFTER
15Z AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY IMPROVE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KT OR
SO WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF
LIFR VISIBILITIES. IFR CIGS WILL BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG
OR BR. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KACT AREA...AND ALSO IN RURAL LOCALES
SUCH AS KGKY. THE MORE URBAN AIRPORTS IN THE DFW AREA HAVE BEEN
SPARED THE DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT AFTER
15Z AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY IMPROVE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KT OR
SO WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF
LIFR VISIBILITIES. IFR CIGS WILL BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG
OR BR. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ115>117-
129>133-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 736 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING...SOUTH FLOW RETURNS MIDDAY FRIDAY.
A STOUT INVERSION HAS KEPT THE STRATOCU DECK FROM EFFECTIVELY
SCATTERING OUT TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AND THE EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE EVENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN
BY MIDDAY...BUT EVEN THEIR WARMTH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT VFR
CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ115>117-
129>133-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF
SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF
55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO
AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND
CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E.
THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH
DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE
LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK
NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS
AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO
ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN
MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING
HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK A TAD HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE
SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL
IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS
SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT
POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO.
SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST
POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY.
THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR
LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE
TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS
STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR
TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN
AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD
EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...EXPECT UPSTREAM CIRRUS OVER WESTERN WI TO FURTHER THIN
AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO BLOCKING RIDGE. HOWEVER KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS IS ACROSS WESTERN CWA. LOWERED EASTERN
AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50 TO
55 DEGREE RANGE ON SUNDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL
MIXING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAP AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP TO MOSTLY 30 TO 35 PERCENT WELL
AWAY FROM LAKE MI.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT FEW-SCT CU TO DEVELOP OVER
INLAND AREAS LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THEN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BUT AT THIS TIME THE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY. FINE FUEL MOISTURE CODE EXPECTED TO REACH 92 AT A FEW
WESTERN SITES ON SUNDAY AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PERHAPS FALLING BELOW 30
PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY SO DO NOT EXPECT TO
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ON
MONDAY AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
BLOCKED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MORE QUIET CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. IN FACT 582DM RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WI WITH SFC/850 HIGH CENTER SETTLING A BIT WEST
TOWARDS THE ERN GRT LAKES. SO STABLE INFLUENCE WITH 925 TEMPS ABOUT
THE SAME AS TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE MAY SEE MORE CU POP
UP AGAIN AWAY FROM THE COOLER INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AT 500 MB PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER LOW WELL EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
700 TO 500 MB RH IS DRY WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AT 850 MB JUST BELOW A SLIGHT STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY NOT
EVEN PRODUCE MUCH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE
AREAS COOL. UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES A LITTLE MONDAY...BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW PUSHES SLOWLY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BUT IS BEING PINCHED
OFF BOTH FROM THE WEST AND THE NORTH...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF DRY UP THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND IS PREFERRED...LEAVING JUST THE AREA APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND ACCELERATE
ALONG THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT NOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE GFS IS QUICKER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF
THE BROAD WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MAINLY THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE NORTHERN JET A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A SOUTH FLOW LATER SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS. SCT-BKN DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CU MAY POP UP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MARINE...
WAVES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSES PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-004-
009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. AFTER A BRIEF OVERNIGHT LULL...WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK BACK
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS COMMON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016/
UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN THE GENERAL FORM OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH
AMERICA THIS EVENING. A DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY ROUNDING
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW RIDGES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH
UP INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DIVING BACK SOUTH INTO THE OTHER
CLOSED LOW FORMING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WHILE FLOODING RAINS ARE A CONCERN ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...NO SUCH CONCERNS CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW SCT SHOWERS THAT DOTTED THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARE BEGINNING TO FADE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS
SIMPLY TOO STRONG TODAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LEE COUNTY TO PREVENT
ANY KIND OF A SEA-BREEZE FROM FORMING...AND THIS KEPT THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW TO A MINIMUM.
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOCAL FORCING KEPT THE CONVECTION IN
CONTROL TODAY. FLOW WAS A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
EVERGLADES...WHERE A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME AND SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN FOR OUR ZONES THIS EVENING.
TODAY (SATURDAY) WAS THE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
IN OUR FORECAST...AS WE ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS RIDGE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
DURING SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT (ALBEIT) GUSTY MID- APRIL DAY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
ALSO BE ADVECTING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DIURNAL MIXING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE
WEEKEND.
MORE DRY WEATHER...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...AND LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SATURDAY NIGHT EVERYONE!
MARINE... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. CAUTIONARY TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE FLOW
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...YET ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSH EASTERLY WINDS BACK UP INTO AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 62 82 62 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 80 60 81 59 / 10 0 10 0
SRQ 83 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 80 55 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 81 65 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18/FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1204 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
215 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON DRY/MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BENEATH STRENGTHENING/RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE WITHIN QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS COMBINING WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND PLENTY OF MID-APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL SITES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO
HAVING REACHED 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART...
AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL
MAINTAIN SYNOPTIC EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WILL EASILY SUPPORT
LAKE BREEZES AS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SUBTLE WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER HOWEVER
WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT CLOUDS TO A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER AND THUS
MAY BE LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GFS NOTED AS SLOWER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WRF/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DEPICT THE FRONT
BACK-DOORING AS IT MELDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
50S/60S BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AS WINDS SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OFF THE LAKE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
219 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
AROUND MIDWEEK ON...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AND
COOLER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SPILLING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY BEHIND A HYBRID LAKE BREEZE/SYNOPTIC
FRONT MONDAY EVENING...AND FOR LOW CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BROUGHT US THIS STRETCH OF QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS WITH AT
LEAST BRIEF INDUCED RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
A NEARLY IDENTICAL PRESSURE REGIME AS YESTERDAY AND AGAIN A HIGH
AMOUNT OF INLAND WARMING...A SIMILAR LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AS
TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL BRING AN AFTERNOON PERIOD OF
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-13 KT WINDS AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. ON MONDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FRESH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Clear skies and lighter southeast winds will continue the
remainder of the night. New NAM-WRF model and HRRR both show these
type of conditions continuing remainder of the night. Current
forecast has good handle on this, so no update planned at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Some high-based cumulus have formed this afternoon across the
northeastern half of the state, helping to give a bit of variety to
this otherwise quiet weather pattern. Temperatures are getting very
close to 80 degrees from about Jacksonville-Danville northward,
while mid 70s prevail to the south.
Clouds should be fading out by 6-7 pm, with another night of clear
skies. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower 50s overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Pleasant weather conditions will continue into Monday evening before
we see a very slow transition from the blocking pattern over the east
central U.S. to a more progressive flow pattern by the end of the
upcoming work week. This should bring increasing rain chances,
especially as the once powerful upper low, currently over the
southern Rockies, edges east northeast and weakens with time next
week. Timing of what is left of that feature into our area looks
be late Wednesday through Thursday night, resulting in our best
shower and thunderstorm chances during that time frame.
Until then, a northern stream shortwave and weak frontal boundary
will slip southeast into the lower Great Lakes late Monday into
Tuesday dragging a cool front south across our area, and at the same
time, several weak vort lobes are forecast to rotate northeast from
the nearly stationary upper low over the south central Plains. As a
result, precip chances will start to increase across the west Monday
night into Tuesday but the forcing is quite weak and mid level lapse
rates not very impressive, so low chance POPs will hold, again
mainly for the western half of the forecast area. We should see a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorms over the area,
especially Wed night through Thursday evening as the trof shifts
across the forecast area.
Temperatures will be pleasantly warm again Sunday into Monday with
most areas bumped up a few degrees from guidance. Afternoon readings
will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s both days. The weak cool
front will slip across the area late Monday into Tuesday bringing
slightly cooler weather to the area, with most of our area holding
in the 70s. We should see some slight variations in temperatures for
the remainder of the week, but overall, it appears no significant
cool downs are foreseen with temperatures averaging above normal
as we transition into a more typical late Spring pattern next
weekend and beyond with troffing over the western U.S. and low
amplitude ridging over the center of the nation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Little
Clear skies will prevail overnight and through tomorrow. Winds
will be southeast through the period with light wind speeds
overnight, increasing to 10kts tomorrow, then decreasing again
after 00z..
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLDS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW A COLD FROPA ON SUN
NGT...BUT THESE LOWER CIGS WL NOT IMPACT THE SITES UNTIL AFTER
18/06Z EVEN AT CMX...WHERE THE FROPA WL OCCUR EARLIEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A
SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW
AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND
40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST
AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA
VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED
IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE
RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND
700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW
SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO
MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A
DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN
NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY
AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO
STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT
BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF
THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS.
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND
DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW
FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM
UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S
BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN RETURNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
25KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY
DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES
LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND
EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS
ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL
BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN
A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE
CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WEAK FRONTOGENSIS SEEN ON RAP13 ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TEH PERSISTENT WEAK LOW LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR
SHOWING UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR
THE NIGHT. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE H500 UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING NEW
PRECIP INTO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
OK. NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIP CENTRAL AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THROUGH MID EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION CENTERED ON NORTH CENTRAL ND DWINDLING AS OF
0245 UTC...AS EXPECTED AND AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE RAP/HRRR
SIMULATIONS. WE UPDATED HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC WITH
A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THOSE RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SLIGHTLY DELAY THE RAMP-UP IN POPS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD...AND LOOKS ON TRACK TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTE THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW AND THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE
ULTIMATE PATH AND STRENGTH OF ANY PV ANOMALIES AND SURGES OF DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
CHALLENGES WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS...THE 00
UTC NAM JUST ARRIVED AND IS WELL IN LINE WITH GOING EXPECTATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING KISN WHERE
LOW VFR IS FORECAST. TIMING THE ONSET OF IFR AND LOWER CIGS IS
DIFFICULT SOME AREAS. THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN MAINLY FOR KMOT AND KDIK. RAIN WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
852 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...AFFECTING CMX AFTER 18/06Z WITH MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IWD AND
SAW TIL NEAR OF JUST AFTER 12Z/MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW A COLD FROPA ON SUN NIGHT...AFFECTING CMX AFTER 18/06Z WITH
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
IWD AND SAW TIL NEAR OF JUST AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
LARGE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM SD TO TX.
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE COMPONENT REMAINS ACROSS SRN KS INTO TX...AND
PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.
INTERESTINGLY H5 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MOST OF THE WEST INDICATING
HEIGHT RISES INDICATING A GENERAL FILLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATE MADE TO THE FCST TO REDUCE PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SWRN
PORTION OF NEB THIS MORNING. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS DID A GOOD
JOB EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THIS WOULD EVOLVE AS IT HAS.
LATEST EXP HRRR DELAYS SHRA REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SHRA AGAIN AROUND
18Z. DID NOT CUT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON YET. OTHERWISE REST OF THE
FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO RETROGRADE BACK NWWD THROUGH THE
DAY AS MAIN PV ANOMALY PULLS NWD. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS
BIFURCATED WITH ONE AREA MOVING NWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO
AND WY INTO SERN MT BY 00Z MON. SECOND AREA ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN
TX. THIS SRN MOST AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SERVES TO INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS INTO TX WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT SHOULD AGAIN TAKE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. STILL STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEEP SRLY
FLOW KEEPS FEEDING THIS DEVELOPMENT BACK NWWD INTO THE LOW WHERE ON
THE NWRN SIDE A MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. OVER SWRN NEB....MODELS
/INCLUDING AVAILABLE CAMS/ SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PRECIP INITIALLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER INCREASING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING THETA-E PROFILE IN A
NARROW ZONE AND THEREFORE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP GRADIENT MENTIONED EARLIER. END RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIP CHANCE THOUGH PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS
IN SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRAG EWD.
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE TEMPS FOR SNOW AGAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FURTHER
EAST THAN SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
MONDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT DOES APPEAR
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT. SHOULD SEE SOME FURTHER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR 40
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AIR ALOFT IS QUITE COLD /H5 NEAR -25C/ AND
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FRIDAY AND NEARING 80 BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING. IN
ADDITION...THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHRA TO
AT TIMES MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS FROM ALOFT. THINK IN GENERAL
HOWEVER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS GUSTY AND WEAKER
SINCE THE SFC PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE WE GET TO
AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON CATEGORY SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN SO MUCH VARIANCE THIS MORNING. GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHRA AND TSRA SWD INTO TX.
AS MENTIONED PRECIP HAS DECAYED ACROSS THE SW BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN YDAY
BUT LARGE AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SIMILARLY LOCATED FROM TX TO SD
BY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG MID LEVEL FGEN BAND. IN
ADDITION...PW VALUES WERE ABOVE THE DAILY MAX IN KLBF THIS
MORNING SO AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN SHOULD FALL WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. MAX LOCATION OF THIS THOUGH WOULD BE EAST OF BOTH
TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RIVER RISES REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EWD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THINK HIGHER RAIN TOTALS WILL MOVE ALONG WITH
THIS BAND. STILL...REDEVLOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND NOT AS PERSISTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. FRENCHMAN AND STINKING WATER CREEKS IN SWRN
NEB REMAIN A CONCERN THOUGH CURRENT RISES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MEDICINE CREEK AND RED WILLOW CREEKS IN HAYES AND FRONTIER
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING A RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. AS FOR THE PLATTE...CURRENT
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE MBRFC OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH
PLATTE LOOKS ON TRACK AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. OBVIOUSLY FOR ANY OF THESE CREEKS AND RIVERS ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT FCSTS COULD CHANGE HOW THEY RESPOND.&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have made slow progress into eastern
Oklahoma this morning with most activity remaining west of highway 75.
Would expect the activity to spread to the east Today as moisture continues
to surge into the region from the south. May see it focus on a weak inverted
trof that is located on the western fringes of the Tulsa Forecast area.
However, the 12z experimental HRRR has the showers and storms spreading to the
Arkansas/Oklahoma border by 00z. Have increased pops across the eastern
portions of the area and have lowered temperatures a degree or so across
eastern Oklahoma.
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
251 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND
IS FCST TO RETROGRADE INTO NWRN CO/SWRN WY OVERNIGHT. CROSS-
SECTIONS STILL SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
DENVER TO THE WY BORDER. IN THE MTNS EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL. BY LATE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
NNW HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE UP TO 700 MB. THUS EXPECT QUITE
A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF -SHSN MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.
ON MON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NWRN
CO/SWRN WY. CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME MID LVL ASCENT MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER BY LATE AFTN. WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE IN THE MTNS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 BY EARLY AFTN. BY LATE AFTN WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF
SHSN IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER
THE PLAINS WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS
READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NERN CO WITH A FEW LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS WHERE VERY LITTLE SNOW OCCURRED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER CIRCULATION ANYWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CENTER IS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IT STAYS
THERE ALL TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
...THEN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW SOME UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY IS BENIGN AFTER THAT CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS POINT TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SURGE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PROGGED WEDNESDAY...THEN DRAINAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT
QUITE A BIT...JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER THE CWA FOR THE LATE DAY PERIODS MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS BETTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL MINOR VALUES. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LATE
DAY TUESDAY...MORE SO FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE QPF
FIELDS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...THE
BEST SHOT...MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE DRIVEN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH 30-60%S MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EAST
CWA. THEN LATE DAY TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
20-50% POPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EAST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS COME UP 2-4 C MORE FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TIMING IS STILL
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER WAY NORTH OVER MONTANA...WHILE THE GFS
HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME
UPPER RIDGING ON THE ECMWF BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ON
THE GFS. POOR AGREEMENT STILL WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING WITH HIGH POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
SNOW THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS ENDED. CEILINGS MAY STAY AROUND 1500
FEET IN THE EVENING HOURS. BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW DENSE FOG AFFECTING
DIA POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 06Z. THUS WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THIS IN
THE 00Z TAF. ON MON IF FOG DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
15Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN COLORADO MTNS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON MONDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST TODAY FOR SEVERAL TAF SITES WITH THE LOW
CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE ENERGY AND MOISTURE OVERHEAD. TERMINAL
FORECASTS WILL START OUT THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST IN
VFR CATEGORIES AS WE WAIT FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO GET SHOWERS
GOING AGAIN. AGAIN THE MOUNTAIN FORECAST SITES OF KASE AND KTEX
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS FROM CIGS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND X-SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME LOWER CLOUDS
SETTLING IN BY TOMORROW MORNING OVER MANY AREAS AND ILS BREAK
POINTS WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE..BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JEFF/JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WESTERN COLORADO MTNS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON MONDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD WYOMING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SUN PEAKING OUT OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES 18 AND 19 AND
FROM THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...ZONE 17 AND THE BOOKCLIFFS...ZONE
3. NEW 12Z NAM GETTING A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE QPF NUMBERS ARE HIGH...BUT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SAN
JUANS LATER TODAY AFTER THE BREAK THIS MORNING. SNOW ALSO PACKING
UP AGAINST THE EASTERN UINTAS THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH NOW
THAT SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED BACK IN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ATTM...WE ARE MAKING SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE STORM WHICH SETTLED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK IS UNLIKELY
TO LEAVE THE AREA ANYTIME SOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACED THE STORM/S CENTER OVER THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW OVER THE
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED RETROGRADE MOTION
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW/S CENTER REPOSITIONING OVER
NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE QG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM -22 DEG C COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROTRACTED
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ADDING TO SNOW TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF COLORADO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
THE LOW MOVES LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SO EXPECT MUCH TO
CHANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
TUESDAY...THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. YES...SNOW...
RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. IN FACT...CONDITIONS DON/T
REALLY IMPROVE UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS...SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO JUMP 10 TO 20 DEGREES ALLOWING
SPRING TO FINALLY RETURN.
OUT WEST...A CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BY NOON...A JET STREAK WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BEST SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO WYOMING AND MONTANA. THE EC KEEPS ALMOST ALL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY GIVE A NOD EITHER WAY SO LOW END CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN APR 17 2016
A PERSISTENT SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OBSCURATION. AIRPORTS IN
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
BELOW ILS CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN SNOW OR
A RAIN SNOW MIX. FIELDS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN STATE FROM
SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JEFF/JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR/NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MN. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDED INTO MN FROM LOW PRES OVER WRN TX. A FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NRN MN ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH OF 1040 MB
HIGH PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTH...LEAVING THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
LAKES. SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM 10C-11C WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE INLAND WEST...AWAY
FROM ANY SRLY FLOW LAKE MI INFLUENCE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE TO AROUND 70 FARTHER INLAND. WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SRLY WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT.
SUN NIGHT...AS RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SRN ALBERTA/SASK THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN LAKES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD
SINK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT...THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 MB
FGEN WILL LAG TO THE NORTH. SO...EXPECT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTH HALF AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR PCPN ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CURRENT OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX BLOCK EARLY THIS WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE BRINGING SPELL OF SUMMER LIKE
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MON
EVENING. RIDGE WILL BE PRECEEDED BY SFC-H85 COLD FRONT WITH H85
TEMPS OF 10-12C ON MON FALLING TO 5C BY TUE MORNING. FRONT/SFC WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH ON MON MORNING BUT COOLING AT H85
LAGS. INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOW 60S OVER SCNTRL AS A RESULT. FLOW
OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTHERN CWA STUCK IN THE 40S.
ON MON MORNING INTO EARLY MON AFTN OVER NORTH CWA DEEPER MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA THIS WEEKEND
ALONG PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FLUNG TO EAST ACROSS UPPER
LAKES AND COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO GENERATE SHOWERS. SINCE THERE IS LARGER SCALE
FORCING WITH ENHANCEMENT FM H85 FRONTOGENESIS BELIEVE AT LEAST LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MON AFTN. QPF WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST
SPOTS. DRY ADVECTION ENDS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY MON EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUE WHILE UPPER LOW
AND SFC LOW OVER WESTERN CONUS DRIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY WORK OVER FAR WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
GRADIENT NE WINDS OUT OF HIGH WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE
COOL IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST HALF. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOST EMPHATIC OVER EAST CWA...SO HAVE LOWEST AFTN
TD/RH IN THOSE AREAS. RIDGE OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT SO WENT WITH LOWER
GUIDANCE. LOWEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR 30 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. FAR WEST SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STIFFER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PLAINS UPPER LOW LUMBERS EAST BY WED. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. WARMER AIR ALOFT...SO IF CLOUDS
DO NOT MOVE IN AS QUICK AS FORECAST SHOWS...WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
OVER CNTRL AND EAST. FOR NOW...INCREASED TEMPS OVER EAST TO LOW 60S
AND KEPT FAR WEST LIMITED TO HIGHS IN UPR 50S/NEAR 60 DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT INTO THU. UPPER LOW WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT...SO
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. COULD BE BREEZY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT THU/THU NIGHT. COOLER INTO FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS STAYING
BLO 0C MOST OF THE DAY...GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MAY PUSH
TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN TO MID 50S.
DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTED
IN LOWER CHANCES...GREATEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF IDEA WORKS OUT WITH STRONG LOW AND SHARP WARM
FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT WILL COME CHANCES OF -SHRA AND SOME IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS AT
CMX AND SAW MONDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 20-25 KTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SNOW MELT CONTINUING...EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LULL
MONDAY AS TEMPS DROP OFF BRIEFLY. THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES A RAPID
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOCUS FOR HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
REMAINS ON THE LOWER STURGEON RIVER BASIN AND TRAP ROCK RIVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
STURGEON BASIN IS NEARLY GONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO RIVER
LEVELS. BELOW PRICKETT DAM...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THE OTTER RIVER BASIN OF
CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY. NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4 INCH
SWE REMAINING. WITH MOST OF THIS LIKELY MELTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND WITH RIVER LEVELS RISING AT THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...THE TRAP ROCK RIVER HAS SHOWN ITS TYPICAL
QUICK DIURNAL RESPONSE TO SNOWMELT. WHILE NOHRSC DATA SHOWS LITTLE
SNOW LEFT IN THE BASIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATES AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT REMAINS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE TRAP ROCK WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MELTING OFF OF DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO HURON
MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTHERN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SILVER RIVER AND YELLOW DOG RIVER...AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BRANCHES OF THE ESCANABA RIVER SYSTEM.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Band of showers was pushing into far western cwa early this
evening and should move into the JLN area within the first couple
hours of the 00z taf. Still have mid level VFR ceilings and will
take some time before we drop down into MVFR, most likely very
late tonight or on Monday morning. Rain will gradually shift
eastward, but probably won`t make it into SGF/BBG until near
sunrise or later.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
354 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no major changes in the forecast and expected weather
impacts for this period.
A stagnant blocking pattern in the mid/upper levels will keep a
large upper level low over the central Rockies. A shortwave
"spoke" moving northward over the Plains around the upper low
will bring the first chance of rain spreading from west to east to
all but the far eastern cwfa during this time. General rainfall
amounts will vary widely across the area with amounts approaching
an inch over southeast KS dropping off to trace amounts or zero
over parts of central and south central MO through the day Mon.
Heavier rainfall will be focused where low level (925/850mb)
winds and moisture convergence occurs just west and southwest of
the area tonight. That convergence weakens Monday as the
shortwave impulse lifts north of the area. We will have to
monitor guidance and observed weather trends closely given the
proximity of these features just off to our west tonight/early
Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
The upper low over the Rockies will shift slowly east reaching
central Neb by 12z/7am Wed then into IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thu.
Small scale impulses/waves will continue to approach and move
through our area ahead of the main upper low. Periods of showers
and tstms will continue, finally affecting all of the area at
times through midweek. The axis of more abundant
moisture/precipitable water (pwats) will move through Mon-Tue-Tue
night, but the best low level moisture advection is expected
Tue/Tue night when our best rainfall potential will occur.
Will continue to mention the low/limited risk for flooding where
storm training might occur. General rainfall amounts Mon-Wed
range from 1-2 inches with the highest amounts over the southwest
cwfa. Soil is relatively dry for this time of year so unless some
small scale storm training produces excessive rainfall in poor
drainage areas we probably aren`t looking at widespread
flooding/flash flooding. Will continue to monitor those trends.
The system finally passes through the region Thu. Drier air moves
in for the late week period with warm temperatures (Fri-Sunday).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Despite a wide-spread cumulus field building throughout the day and
upper level cirrus moving into the region from the west,
temperatures have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s early
this afternoon. The large closed low churning away over the inter-
mountain west has moved very little since yesterday. Main band of
precipitation has remained across central Kansas and
Oklahoma...very, very slowly moving eastward. Scattered showers may
develop across eastern portions of the CWA this evening along a weak
vorticity maxima. Precipitation chances will gear up heading into
the early morning hours as a much stronger vorticity max peels away
from the low. Instability values of a few hundred joules could spark
an isolated thunderstorm. With weak shear and limited instability,
severe chances remain very low, although a few locations could see
some moderate rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Monday evening
across eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, but on-again off-
again precipitation chances will continue into Thursday.
The upper level low will weaken and expand, encompassing the western
half of the conus by Monday night. Omega block will begin to break
down and flatten as east Pacific trough moves up the west coast and
helps the stagnant closed low move slightly northward into northern
stream flow. The low slowly becomes absorbed into the northern flow
by Thursday, and finally moves off to the east. Precipitation
chances will come to end from west to east as this upper low departs
the region. Upper ridge will build over the plains by the end of the
week into the weekend. This should result in afternoon high
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with maybe some locations
reaching the low 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...PMM
Aviation...PMM
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A blocking pattern remains in place for most of tonight, ensuring
another night of quiet wx conditions for most of the CWA. The upper
ridge axis over the eastern CONUS is forecast to start breaking down
late tonight, which will allow a cutoff low over the western CONUS
to shift slightly eastward. The approach of this feature will bring
increasing clouds and pcpn chcs to central MO very late tonight. It
appears that measurable pcpn will hold off until after 12z.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. Things will
change during the day on Monday, however, as the first of a series
of disturbances will take a swipe at our region, each one likely
more successful than the last in producing rain.
Look for increasing clouds from west to east on Monday with
increasing chances for rain in parts of central and northeast MO.
The warm temps will continue for one more day over all areas, at
least as a consequence of decent sunshine in the morning, and even
more so for IL and STL metro with sunshine thru much of the day.
Persistence temps favored for IL and STL metro, with slightly less
than persistence elsewhere on account of clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day but the best
chances should remain to the north and west of STL metro with little
movement on the part of the cutoff LOW, so it will be a gradual
intrusion of these better rain chances into our region. All areas
should see mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max
temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday,
opening up as a TROF and passing thru Wednesday night and early
Thursday. The track of this key feature is a bit quicker and
further south than it was 24hrs ago, with it then coinciding with
passage of a cold front thru the area. Have painted a broad swath
of likely PoPs Wed and Wed ngt, slowly tapering off Thursday,
although Thursday could also be a wet day if the post-frontal
situation is favorable. The more persistent rain and thicker clouds
will further reduce the daytime max temps Wednesday towards more
normal values, and if any recovery or increase occurs into Thursday
and Friday, it will be from increased sunshine and not so much
from the airmass that moves in behind the front.
The models continue to advertise a new upper RIDGE aloft building in
with southerly flow at the surface for next weekend, and this should
result in a return of the warm and dry wx, with daytime maxes
approaching 80F again.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered to broken cumulus deck across the region this afternoon as
warmer southeasterly winds and warm temperatures helps to mix the
atmosphere.. By this evening, cloud deck will fill in from west to
east and rain showers will begin to develop. Between 11-12Z light
rain with an isolated thunderstorm will become more prevailing as the
overall system pushes into the region.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...PMM
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wednesday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR through the period. Expect scattered diurnal cu this afternoon
and wind gusts of 15-20 kts, both of which will diminish around
sunset. Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, then become
more south-southeasterly towards the end of the valid fcst pd.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Variable cigs will continue this afternoon at the TAF sites,
though VFR should generally prevail. Heading into the evening and
overnight hours, expect to see a gradual eastward push to
scattered showers (and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder) into
the region. This activity will affect JLN first, followed by SGF
and BBG. Cigs will also gradually fall with time, approaching MVFR
and perhaps IFR by the latter portion of the TAF cycle.
In addition to cig/wx concerns, winds will remain gusty from the
SE through the rest of today, with a steady SE breeze then
continuing overnight. LLWS will also be a concern overnight for
all three sites.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Pilots can expect intervals of MVFR ceilings this morning before
lifting this afternoon. Gusty southeasterly surface winds will
persist through tonight. Lowering ceilings will return tonight but
look to remain mainly in the VFR category. Showers will increase
from west late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Scattered stratus with bases between 2500 and 5000 ft will drift
through all TAF sites between 12z-16z this morning, then boundary
layer mixing will temporarily eliminate the stratus, only to be
replaced with another cu field based between 4-5 kft. Winds will
remain out of the southeast at 12 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting
in excess of 20 kts during the daylight hours. A few showers will
become possible after 06z, and more likely just beyond the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through this forecast
period. Southeast winds may gust to near 20 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions through the period. Southeast
winds could gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts will
subside by around sunset.
Browning
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
345 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
Very block upper air pattern will persist featuring a stout omega
block with the upper ridge dominating the MS and OH/TN Valley
region. This pattern aloft will maintain high pressure in the low
levels over the eastern U.S. and a southeasterly lower tropospheric
flow across the region. Less cloudiness today, slightly warmer
temperatures aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer should
translate to highs 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with upper
70s to lower 80s common. Tonight will be mild again with clouds
spreading into the region from the Plains.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun
Apr 17 2016
The omega block will break down early on as the upper air pattern
undergoes change with lowering heights and troffing aloft from
eastern Canada into the far eastern U.S.. This will suppress the
upper ridge which has dominated our area for a number of days, and
allow for a backdoor cold front. It will also allow for gradual
eastward progression of the western U.S. upper trof/low in a
weakening state, with the upper trof moving into the MS Valley
late Wednesday/Thursday. Increasing southwest flow in advance of
the main trof will send a number of northeastward rotating short
wave trofs and associated surface boundaries into the area. The
first of these will begin to impact central MO late Monday
afternoon with slow eastward motion Monday night. Successive short
waves will keep the main zone of showers and thunderstorms focused
near the surface boundary in central/NE MO Tuesday/Tuesday night
and then eventually spreading east late Wedneday into Thursday
with the progression of the upper trof. The increase in clouds and
precipitation will knock temperatures back, however they will
remain above average for mid April.
Looking beyond the next 7 days, the models are showing a much more
active spring pattern evolving for the later part of the month.
Something we have yet to see this spring.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across the region today, due
to continued southeast breeze and associated boundary layer mixing,
warm temperatures aloft, and at least partial sunshine through
broken blowoff cirrus from showers and storms currently over the
central Plains. This area of precipitation will slowly transition
eastward as a lobe of vorticity begins to expand east today, pushing
the weakening dryline/cold front to near the OKC-ICT-Salina corridor
by this evening. Northeastward propagation of individual shower/storm
elements will allow precipitation to separate from the dryline/front,
and while this deviation will likely weaken convection, adequate
moisture and some upper level support should keep pre-frontal precip
going east of the surface forcing. As a result, shower/storm chances
will begin to increase this evening and become likely overnight as
the increasingly diffuse boundary treks slowly to the east.
Convergence along the boundary will be too weak and instability too
limited to support strong/severe storms; however, the combination of
some surface focus and upper-level support will bring both the best
chance for rain and even some periods of moderate rainfall rates to
the western third of the CWA Monday morning before weakening to the
east. Widespread rain amounts west of U.S. Highway 65 should range
from a third to a half inch through Monday evening, and isolated
higher amounts are possible along and west of the MO/KS border.
On-and-off precipitation chances will continue Monday night through
Thursday as the upper low slowly transitions eastward and provides
broad lift over non-zero instability. Shower/storm chances will be
highest on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper trough finally
begins to make an earnest eastward push and sweeps a weak frontal
boundary through the CWA, then will gradually end Thursday as the
upper-level system departs. Very warm conditions and a quick recovery
to increasing low-level moisture and southwest flow aloft are still
expected for the coming weekend, when temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s and isolated storm chances return.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
...Mostly Dry Today Before An Unsettled and Wet Weather Pattern Moves
in This Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
There are no significant changes in the on going forecast with
this morning update. We are still watching a very slow moving and
large upper level low pressure system currently over the Rocky
Mountain region today. Clouds will continue to move in and
increase today especially over the western half of the area. A
little more sunshine may be possible over the far northeastern
areas like the Rolla and Lake of the Ozarks where temperatures
will be warmest today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to upper 70s depending on cloud cover.
Most of the day will be dry for most areas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move into the western areas tonight
and early tomorrow morning. The area of rainfall tonight will be
mainly west of Highway 65. Some general thunder will be possible
but no severe weather is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2016
A piece of the upper level energy will move up towards the Upper
Midwest on Monday with a trailing axis of moisture and low
instability. This means most area on Monday will see scattered
showers and some thunder around. There will be a decrease in rain
chances Monday night before another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move in on Tuesday. There will be
brief downpours at time along with lightning being the main threat
from any thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Wednesday lasting into Thursday before the trough axis swings
through late Thursday. Rain chances will finally decrease and move
east of the area Thursday night as drier and more stable air moves
in.
The only minor change with this forecast update will be
increasing the storm rainfall totals a little this week. General
1 to 3 inches are now expected with the highest amounts along and
west of Highway 65 across southeast Kansas and extreme western
Missouri. We have been fairly dry and have greened up vegetation
quite a bit recently. We are not expected much in the way of any
flooding issues at this time but will mention a slight
possibility or limited threat for a few swollen creeks and streams
over far western Missouri and southeast Kansas by mid week where
rainfall totals will be closer to 3 inches.
Upper level high pressure builds in for the end of the week and
weekend. Warmer weather will also return with temperatures
approaching 80 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
VFR conditions look like they will hold through the overnight hours.
Have delayed the arrival of any MVFR ceilings until after 12z. And
then they may only last a handful of hours before mixing lifts them
aoa 4k ft by late morning. Prefer to hold off inserting prevailing
showers/isolated thunder until next forecast as an argument can be
made that the models trend of slowing eastward push of convection
across the MO/KS border will continue for a bit longer.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Few cirrus clouds overnight along with light east/southeast winds
around 5 knots. Winds will pick up a bit to between 10 and 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots. Few diurnal cumulus along with
increasing high clouds during the day on Sunday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR through Sunday night expected. Light east winds will veer to
the SE and pick up in speed by late Sunday morning. Gusts to 20
knots expected. These winds will lighten up again by Sunday
evening.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Expecting ceilings to lower again tonight and into MVFR conditions
across the 3 terminal locations. Showers will begin to approach
the western CWA during the evening Sunday, but for now have left
out of the 06z terminal forecast.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
As expected diurnal cumulus has mostly dissipated leaving just a
FEW-SCT high level clouds mainly west of the Mississippi River as
of 0200 UTC this evening. Going forecast appears to be on track
with only minor changes made this evening. Expect lows to drop
into the 50s tonight under a partly cloudy to clear sky.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 57 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 57 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 56 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 54 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Satellite imagery shows clouds have scattered out across northern and
west central MO this afternoon and expect this trend to hold through
this evening. The large upper system over the Southern Rockies will
gradually slide east and thus maintain the same airmass over the
region. So, expect to see MVFR ceilings to form over northwest and
west central MO and eastern KS after midnight. Should see ceilings
improve to VFR with better mixing late in the morning with a
corresponding in gusty winds.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Persistent pattern will continue
through the TAF period. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to build back
north this evening affecting the KSGF site, but not reaching KJLN
until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. KBBG may scattered out
briefly this evening, but ceilings will go back into MVFR and IFR
conditions later tonight into Sunday morning. Like today, will see
lifting and scattering of the lower ceilings Sunday afternoon at
all sites. Expect southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range
through the period, with some gusts to 20 to 23 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
623 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected at least through Sunday evening across the
area. Diurnal cumulus expected to dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky and SE winds 5-10 knots. FEW-SCT cumulus again
expected on Sunday with bases of 5000-6000 feet AGL. Winds will
remain out of the southeast and increase a bit on Sunday to 10-15
knots sustained, gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal cu dissipates quickly this evening. Clear with SE winds
around 5-10 knots. More diurnal cu with bases around 6000 feet AGL
on Sunday with a few gusts to around 20 knots as well.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 0 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 0 5 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
AS OF 20Z...THE UPPER LOW HAS INCHED NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
COLORADO BUT HAS STALLED ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...KEEPING ALL OF THE LBF CWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HWY
83...WHERE SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
THE DRY SLOT STARTED TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM KIML TO KIEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE HRRR AN RAP CLOSELY WITH
POP COVERAGE AS THE MODELS HAVE PORTRAYED THE PRECIP PLACEMENT
FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED DEFINITE POPS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. SFC OBS AT KODX HAVE BEEN TEMPORARILY
REPORTING RA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO ADDED MODERATE RAIN MENTION THROUGH
06Z. GIVEN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...
MENTIONED RASN AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TO ALL AREAS
WEST OF KIML-KVTN OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MAINLY SN WHILE NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SUPPORTS RASN AT KIML
AND KOGA. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF ALL SNOW LIES NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...SO CONFINED TO SHERIDAN CO AND SMALL PARTS OF GARDEN AND
CHERRY. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH MOISTURE NORTHWEST NEB AS SAT NIGHT
DUE TO DRY SLOT. WITH TEMP PROFILES HUGGING THE FREEZING LINE IN
THE FIRST 200HPA...DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE THAT LAYER...AND
LITTLE LIFT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ONE INCH OR LESS. SMALL SLR WILL
ALSO HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
MONDAY...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE
SIMILAR TO MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND ALL DAY AND POPS
ARE GREATER. HIGHS MAY BE UNDERDONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND NAM SHOWS
WEAK WAA ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT H85. REDUCED POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST A BIT...PULLING IN DRIER AIR...VERY NOTICEABLE
700HPA AND ABOVE. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KLBF ALSO INCREASE THE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AND INDICATE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BY 18Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FINAL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY
CLEARING. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLEARING...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 30 IF CLEAR SKIES PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP...WITH CU EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD. SHOULD TAKE LONG AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL
AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS. SOME JUST NEG C LIFT INDEX INDICATED
IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 30S...MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...OTHER WISE WARM ENOUGH FOR
LIQUID.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. WAA WILL INCREASE THICKNESS AND
TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND...ALSO SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. BY
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
AROUND 80.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE 4
CORNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
RAISING OF POPS. TIMING STILL AN ISSUE BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND
MAY NEED TO DELAY POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OFF AND
ON RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FROM KAIA TO KLBF AND
TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADY RAIN
FROM KBBW TO KANW AND POINTS EAST. TEMPORARY VISBY DROPS ARE ALSO
LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR MIST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
THE LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED
BY WHAT WAS A DRY GROUND. SO FAR AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE ONLY
SEEN MINIMAL RISES. HOWEVER...THE SLOW RUN OFF ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REQUIRED
CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 56 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
LARGE UPPER LOW STILL PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AND A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM SD TO TX.
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE COMPONENT REMAINS ACROSS SRN KS INTO TX...AND
PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NEB PANHANDLE.
INTERESTINGLY H5 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MOST OF THE WEST INDICATING
HEIGHT RISES INDICATING A GENERAL FILLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPDATE MADE TO THE FCST TO REDUCE PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SWRN
PORTION OF NEB THIS MORNING. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS DID A GOOD
JOB EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THIS WOULD EVOLVE AS IT HAS.
LATEST EXP HRRR DELAYS SHRA REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SHRA AGAIN AROUND
18Z. DID NOT CUT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON YET. OTHERWISE REST OF THE
FCST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO RETROGRADE BACK NWWD THROUGH THE
DAY AS MAIN PV ANOMALY PULLS NWD. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING GETS
BIFURCATED WITH ONE AREA MOVING NWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN CO
AND WY INTO SERN MT BY 00Z MON. SECOND AREA ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN
TX. THIS SRN MOST AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING SERVES TO INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS INTO TX WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT SHOULD AGAIN TAKE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. STILL STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEEP SRLY
FLOW KEEPS FEEDING THIS DEVELOPMENT BACK NWWD INTO THE LOW WHERE ON
THE NWRN SIDE A MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. OVER SWRN NEB....MODELS
/INCLUDING AVAILABLE CAMS/ SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PRECIP INITIALLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER INCREASING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING THETA-E PROFILE IN A
NARROW ZONE AND THEREFORE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP GRADIENT MENTIONED EARLIER. END RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF PRECIP CHANCE THOUGH PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS
IN SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRAG EWD.
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE TEMPS FOR SNOW AGAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FURTHER
EAST THAN SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS COLORADO ON
MONDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
WELL. STILL QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...BUT DOES APPEAR
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE DRY
SLOT. SHOULD SEE SOME FURTHER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...EXCEPT NEAR 40
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AIR ALOFT IS QUITE COLD /H5 NEAR -25C/ AND
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHEAR IS
WEAK...BUT WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FRIDAY AND NEARING 80 BY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OFF AND
ON RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS FROM KAIA TO KLBF AND
TERMINALS NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STEADY RAIN
FROM KBBW TO KANW AND POINTS EAST. TEMPORARY VISBY DROPS ARE ALSO
LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR MIST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RIVER RISES REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EWD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THINK HIGHER RAIN TOTALS WILL MOVE ALONG WITH
THIS BAND. STILL...REDEVLOPMENT OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND NOT AS PERSISTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. FRENCHMAN AND STINKING WATER CREEKS IN SWRN
NEB REMAIN A CONCERN THOUGH CURRENT RISES ARE STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. MEDICINE CREEK AND RED WILLOW CREEKS IN HAYES AND FRONTIER
COUNTIES ALSO SHOWING A RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. AS FOR THE PLATTE...CURRENT
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE MBRFC OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH
PLATTE LOOKS ON TRACK AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. OBVIOUSLY FOR ANY OF THESE CREEKS AND RIVERS ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT FCSTS COULD CHANGE HOW THEY RESPOND.&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STOPPKOTTE
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
404 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE BREEZE IS PROBABLY BEST
HANDLED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH
CONTINUES TO DROP THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGING WILL PROMOTE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM AND A MORE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE
LAKES...WITH THE TYPICAL SW FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN BUFFALO/WATERTOWN...WITH A
WEAKER LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SHARPEN THE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BE STRONGEST AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WEAKENING WITH TIME BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND FADING
CLOSE TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE
GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A
TENTH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 30S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50SW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITHIN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK
BROKEN...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW THAT HAD SETUP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE
WEAKENING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF OPENING UP THE WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUT
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN RE-DEVELOP MID-DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...WITH
WINDS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES THROUGH
MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH
TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER...WITH
TODAYS STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN RISING RH
VALUES. GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS OF A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
226 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT ONLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE BREEZE IS PROBABLY BEST
HANDLED BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR WHICH
CONTINUES TO DROP THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGING WILL PROMOTE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM AND A MORE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES NEAR THE
LAKES...WITH THE TYPICAL SW FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN BUFFALO/WATERTOWN...WITH A
WEAKER LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC WILL SHARPEN THE
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING...WHERE DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BE STRONGEST AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WEAKENING WITH TIME BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND FADING
CLOSE TO THE NY/PA STATE LINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE
GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A
TENTH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 30S SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50SW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITHIN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PULL
BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THEN RE-DEVELOP MID-DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...WITH
WINDS MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES THROUGH
MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH
TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER...WITH
TODAYS STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL ALSO USHER IN RISING RH
VALUES. GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS OF A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE THEN
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HRRR GUIDANCE. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. OFF TO THE WEST...SOME AREAS OF SNOW
CONTINUE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
RAIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS HANDLED RATHER WELL SO MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE RAIN HAS MOVED IN AND CONTINUE THE
TREND THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WHILE THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA HAS TRAILED OFF AND SKIES ARE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN NORTH CENTRAL...THE NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE
IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH WITH INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BE A FOCAL POINT FOR FRONTOGENESIS AND WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
FRONTAL POSITION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO A LARGE AND PERSISTENT H500 LOW OVER COLORADO THAT REMAINS IN
A GOOD POSITION TO BRING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS TEH
SOUTH...WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
MONDAY WILL SEE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST OM MONDAY BUT A DEGREE OR
TWO TEMPERATURES EITHER WAY AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT SNOW IN THE HWO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS AND AS
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES WESTWARD MOST THE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE WITH THE NORTH EITHER DRY OR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO KICK OUT AND MILD AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLES IN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE AN H500 TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACH BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN WHERE MVFR-LOW VFR IS
FORECAST. THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT MAINLY KBIS/KJMS/KDIK AND LATER TODAY AT
KMOT. KISN SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR KDIK. RAIN WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...
AS THE UA RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST
LATE THIS AFTN...IT CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE UA LOW ACROSS CO FROM
MOVING MUCH...AS THE CENTER IS POISED TO EVEN RETROGRADE TO ACROSS
THE CO/WY/UT COMMON BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING...THUS MAINTAIN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFTN IS DEFINITELY MUCH QUIETER AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY/S BOUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
/AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ HAVING SHIFTED TO E AND SE TX INTO E OK.
CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN NRLY WINDS THAT WAS A BIT BREEZY EARLIER
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA...A STRATUS DECK WAS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS PER 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY /FOG FINALLY CLEARED OUT AT
KCDS/. ADDITIONAL STRATUS CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT HRRR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CRITERIA ACROSS THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT MIST/LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
ROLLING PLAINS SINCE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN
THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON MEAGER POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.
THE SLIGHT UL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN
SOUTH PLAINS. NO LIGHTNING DETECTED AS OF YET BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA RECEIVING BETTER INSOLATION. THE HRRR
HINTS AT ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE AS THAT IS
WHERE IT HAS CLEARED OUT FIRST. IN FACT...SLIGHT AGITATED CU-FIELDS
HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. ALL OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
RESULTED IN A TRACE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REPORTED VIA
THE TTU MESONET SITES. THE FRONT HAS ALSO USHERED IN A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.
ALTHOUGH PWATS HAVE WANTED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PWATS OF
0.50-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR ROLLING PLAINS
COUPLED WITH A 250 MB 70+ KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING SOME UL SUPPORT...WILL MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY /WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ ACROSS THE SAID AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS RE-GENERATE
ELSEWHERE /HARD TO PIN-POINT THE EXACT LOCATION/ OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER VORT LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA
LOW...SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
MAY MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT FOG COULD
BE MORE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY WIND
SPEEDS. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /RELATIVELY CLOUDY WITH
NORTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES/ BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER /60S AND 70S/. THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THERE...WHICH THEN COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES. /29
.LONG TERM...
THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP BY A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND SWEPT DOWNSTREAM AS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW WE WILL SEE A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONE RELATED TO A POSSIBLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...
WHICH THE WRF/NAM WORKS UP INTO A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA BRUSHING
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVN TAKE
ON THIS WAVE IS FLATTER AND MORE CHANNELED SO LACKS ANY
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE. WE WILL RETAIN A LOW MENTION FAVORING
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW.
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE BEING
CAPABLE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY THOUGH MOISTURE CERTAINLY
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW AND A DRY-LINE MIGHT EVEN BECOME A FACTOR. SO
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WEST OF THE DRY
LINE ROUGHLY I-27 CORRIDOR AND A RISK OF SEVERE THAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH MODEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LINGERING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ALSO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THAT DAY MAY PROVIDE
MORE IMPETUS FOR SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS FUZZY ABOUT PRECIPITATION SEPARATION FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE WITH A FAIRLY
GENERIC COVERAGE UNTIL DETAILS UNFOLD. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DWINDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS RUN IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM
AND DRY SPELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE JUTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE SEEMS A BIT MEAGER FOR NOW SO FORECAST WILL
BE DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOOKING UPPER LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS LOW THUNDER CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS CHANCE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS DEEP DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND RESULTS IN A WARM
PERHAPS BREEZY OR WINDY DAY NEXT SUNDAY.
SO...SOME CHANGES BASED ON PERSISTENT OR GATHERING TRENDS...THOUGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITATION IS MODEST AT BEST.
/05 RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
109 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
.UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AROUND AMA IS ASSOC W NARROW BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFTS ASSOC W/ UPR LOW TO
THE WEST. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REPRESENT BULK OF THE PRECIP IN THE
AREA AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE OK PANHANDLE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS WELL IN MOST RECENT RUNS, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
OVERDUE PRECIP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. DID QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
POPS CENTRAL ZONES AND DECREASE SOME IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...AREA IS
SPLIT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EAST...MVFR IN CENTRAL AND VFR
ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLE. FOR TAFS SITES...ANTICIPATE CIGS WILL
REMAIN OR LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT DECIDED TO
INCLUDE MVFR CIGS JUST IN AMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. ONLY
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES HAVE A SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LESS INTENSE. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRIER AIR WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD EAT AWAY AT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS HELPING TO
FUEL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN IT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER PARENT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE PANHANDLES
WILL STAY DRY OR NOT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT POPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
AT ANY RATE...RAIN CHANCES WOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH NO MATTER WHAT
MODEL YOU LOOK AT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE THE
UPPER LOW STARTS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PANHANDLES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 60 38 66 44 71 / 20 10 5 30 20
BEAVER OK 58 41 67 44 68 / 40 20 0 30 40
BOISE CITY OK 53 34 60 42 63 / 10 10 20 50 50
BORGER TX 60 40 68 46 71 / 20 10 5 30 30
BOYS RANCH TX 61 39 66 44 72 / 10 10 10 40 30
CANYON TX 61 38 66 44 72 / 10 10 5 30 20
CLARENDON TX 62 42 68 47 71 / 30 20 5 20 20
DALHART TX 58 36 63 43 69 / 10 10 20 50 40
GUYMON OK 57 38 65 43 66 / 20 10 5 30 40
HEREFORD TX 61 38 66 44 74 / 10 10 10 30 20
LIPSCOMB TX 60 42 68 45 70 / 40 20 0 20 30
PAMPA TX 61 39 68 45 71 / 30 10 5 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 62 44 69 48 72 / 40 20 0 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 64 45 70 49 74 / 40 20 0 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG