Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/16/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 23-00Z. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER WINDSOR AND SANTA ROSA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION UNDERWAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...WEATHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A NICE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIRMASS
WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...INTERIOR POSS
LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW. A COOL DOWN WILL BE NOTICED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER
RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST
COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD
VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1107 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST
COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD
VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.10 INCH OR LESS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH BAY
TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST THREE HOURS
AND ISOLATED LIGHT AMOUNTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS RELATIVELY STRONG DESENDING
AIR WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND BRIEF SHOWERS
DEVELOOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL BUILD OVER 10 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ006-505-509
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ529-530
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: 30/BLIER
AVIATION: 30
MARINE: 30
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS
HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND
1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND
1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS....A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER...OUR REGION
BASKED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.
EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NEARLY
ZERO. BUT THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING OVERNIGHT. BOTH SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
BAY BY 2 AM. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 4 AM THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY. BECAUSE THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH BAY.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ALL
MODEL DATA INDICATE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST
TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO DEGREES C IN THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN BY MIDDAY TO OFFSET
THIS COOL AIRMASS TO SOME EXTENT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY BEGIN TO WARM THE AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA...BUT ALSO TURN THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY AND BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WARMING ON FRIDAY WILL
BE MORE MODEST. THE WARMING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INLAND OVER CA AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY...AT BOTH INLAND
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST AND SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS
HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND
1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND
1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:34 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON THURSDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS COOL
AIR PUSHES IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1033 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD BEACHES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...
.UPDATE...WIND SURGE CONTINUES ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST
WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE TREASURE
COAST LATER INTO SATURDAY. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO RESPOND AT BUOY
41009 20 MILES OFF THE CAPE CANAVERAL COAST WITH EAST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. HAVE TRANSITIONED COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COAST WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST
LATER ON SATURDAY AS WIND SURGE WORKS DOWN THE COAST. DOES NOT
APPEAR WE WILL HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE BUT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE SURF UP TO THE DUNES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE COASTAL AREAS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COAST
WILL BE FAVORED FOR SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER BANDS SETTING
UP WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH SOME ATLANTIC ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...(FROM PREV DISC...)LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AFT...WITH BREEZY (POTENTIALLY
WINDY) CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
SATURDAY...UP TO 50-60 PERCENT DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FL COMBINED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
TRANSPORTING SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFT.
POPS THEN DECREASE INTO SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
MON-THU...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. SHIFTING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OUT OF THE
FORECAST MON-WED. INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING S/SE FLOW FROM RIDGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A RISE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL
(LOW/MID 80S) BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR NRN TERMINALS
INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR SHRA...MAINLY KDAB-KVRB OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND UTILIZE 18Z WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS WHICH
WAS HANDLING INCREASED SEAS/SURGE FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. NRN
WATERS WILL SEE A SOLID 25 KNOTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN AND WILL START FOR THE SRN WATERS AT
4 AM. CWF UPDATE AVBL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 75 63 75 / 40 50 30 10
MCO 66 80 64 80 / 20 50 20 10
MLB 68 78 67 77 / 50 60 30 20
VRB 66 80 67 78 / 40 60 30 20
LEE 65 79 61 79 / 20 50 20 10
SFB 65 78 61 78 / 30 50 20 10
ORL 66 79 63 78 / 30 50 20 10
FPR 66 80 68 78 / 30 60 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
RADAR/IMPACT WX....SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AROUND 10AM. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST BEYOND
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LIMIT OF 60NM WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD
DRIFT. INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING VARIABLE
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHORT TERM MODELS...RAP40/HRRR...INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO THE WEST NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD START FORMING MID
AFTERNOON AND ALSO MOVE EAST. PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH
10000 FEET WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WHERE
THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT IS
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
MORNING ZONES UPDATE WILL AMEND TIMING AND WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VIS INTERIOR KISM-KDED TIL
15Z THEN VFR. VCTS 18Z-06Z GOOD CALL AS TIMING OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
STILL UNCERTAIN. AFT 06Z VCSH LOOKS GOOD.
.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE AFTER 1 PM AT THE
COAST. SEA BREEZES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INLAND VERY FAR AGAINST A
PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
.AVIATION...SEVERAL TAF SITES RECORDING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT THE COAST FROM FORT PIERCE NORTH. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD JUMP AROUND FROM AS LOW AS LIFR TO VFR NEXT HOUR THEN
PREVAILING VFR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/MIST HAVING LIFTED/BURNED OFF.
WILL WATCH OBS AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FRINGE
OF A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST PLUS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FEATURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF THE H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SECTION. THE 16Z HRRR AND 12Z
SPC WRF DISPLAYED SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THROUGH THE EVENING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. FOLLOWED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIFFUSE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
MEAN SUPPORTED A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT EXPECT POSSIBLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY IN THE DAY WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD
A POP AROUND 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 12Z SPC WRF DISPLAYED
AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTH PART EARLY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND AN H5 RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
IN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MONDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE AREA SHOULD
HELP LIMIT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT.
THERE SHOULD BE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR A POSSIBLE STALLED FRONT
OR ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
TUESDAY...20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A FEED OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT TO PROMOTE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY FOR OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO WIND STAYING
UP. UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO SHIFT INTO OUR REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A NE WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN EDGING CLOSE TO THE CSRA.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CSRA IS
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST SPC HRRR DISPLAYED
RAIN REACHING THE SAVANNAH RIVER TOWARDS SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO POPS SINCE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE
MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REMAINS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES
WITH FEW SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL...HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
SHOWERS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 9
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z UP TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT AGS/DNL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
834 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE NE CO FROM THE WATCH. WILL REASSESS
OTHER AREAS SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 090 IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY...NEW
ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES THE MAIN SYSTEM. STORM MOTION
ALONG THE LINE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE HOWEVER TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. CAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 20Z
AT 1200 TO 2000 J/KG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH 0
TO 6KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND WILL
CONSIST OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE 0 TO 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVERTAKES IT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT TIMES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING A DRY
SLOT MOVING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS NEW FEATURE, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THOSE TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY POPS
WILL BE LOWERED SOME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL STILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN
COLORADO TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SINCE
THIS SNOW SHOULD COME TWO SEPARATE NIGHTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN, THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF MELTING AND SETTLING.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WITH LOW
AMOUNTS OF WET AND MELTING SNOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE
EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER
WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NEBRASKA. A
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTING NIL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND WITH MID 50S TO LOWER
60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LINE OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 00Z
AND LATER AND KMCK LATER THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A LULL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A NEW SURGE OF
STORMS AFFECTING THE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 090 IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY...NEW
ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES THE MAIN SYSTEM. STORM MOTION
ALONG THE LINE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE HOWEVER TRAINING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. CAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 20Z
AT 1200 TO 2000 J/KG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH 0
TO 6KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND WILL
CONSIST OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE 0 TO 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVERTAKES IT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT TIMES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING A DRY
SLOT MOVING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS NEW FEATURE, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THOSE TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY POPS
WILL BE LOWERED SOME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL STILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN
COLORADO TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SINCE
THIS SNOW SHOULD COME TWO SEPARATE NIGHTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SNOW BETWEEN, THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF MELTING AND SETTLING.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WITH LOW
AMOUNTS OF WET AND MELTING SNOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE
EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER
WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NEBRASKA. A
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTING NIL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND WITH MID 50S TO LOWER
60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LINE OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 00Z
AND LATER AND KMCK LATER THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A LULL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A NEW SURGE OF
STORMS AFFECTING THE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
The quiet weather pattern will continue through tonight with dry
conditions and slightly above-normal temperatures. Water vapor
imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to track eastward
across Oklahoma into Arkansas, with some low/mid clouds extending
into far east central Kansas early this morning. Aside from this
wave, the region will generally be under a weak mid-level ridge
through tonight as a closed low moves into the Pacific Northwest
today and will cause a deep trough to develop across the western
U.S. tonight into Friday. Surface winds will remain out of the
south/southeast today and tonight as the region stays wedged between
high pressure to the east and low pressure across the Rockies and
High Plains. With the exception of a few low clouds that may skim
across portions of north central Kansas this morning, skies will be
mostly sunny today with the southerly winds helping to push
afternoon high temperatures into the low/mid 70s once again. These
southerly winds will also continue to advect more moisture into the
region, with dewpoint temperatures staying in the 40s today which
will keep minimum relative humidity values in the mid 30 to low 40
percent range. Winds may become breezy at times this afternoon
across north central Kansas with gusts of 20-25mph. Gusts may only
diminish to 15-20mph in that region overnight, which will keep
temperatures a few degrees warmer than early this morning. In
addition to these persistent southerly winds, some mid-level clouds
may begin to move into central Kansas by Friday morning ahead of the
approaching system. With these conditions in place, lows tonight
should only drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
The latest model consensus with regards to the slow moving four
corners upper low is for a little slower movement than previous
model runs. The upper low will be between the ridge in the western
U.S. and western Canadian provinces and the upper high pressure over
the eastern states. The upper low is forecast to gradually move
eastward and fill as it moves out into the plains next week. There
is a good signal for precipitation late in the weekend through the
first half of next week across central and eastern Kansas. With the
slow progression deep moisture will stream northward from the Gulf
into the Plains for much of the period. Initially most of the
forcing and moisture will be over the Rockies and High Plains then
gradually shift eastward with time. Therefore have gone dry on
Friday then gradually introducing precipitation chances to areas of
north central Kansas beginning Friday night through Saturday night.
By Sunday and Monday large scale forcing will increase across
central and eastern Kansas with a energy ejects out into the Plains.
Also by Monday low pressure will develop over central Kansas with a
cold front extending south into Texas with a warm/stationary front
near Interstate 70 with the low/inverted trough progressing eastward
across eastern Kansas on Tuesday. Good moisture in place along with
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg Monday and Tuesday afternoon with 0-6 KM
shear around 25-30 kts may see a few strong storms, but mainly
beneficial rainfall. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday
as the system remains and weakens over the Plains. Temperatures
mainly in the 70s through Sunday cooling off into the 60s for the
first half of the week. Lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR conditions for the day today with some potential MVFR visbys
toward morning as moisture continues to increase and may bring
another round of haze/fog. Winds increase once again on Friday but
late enough in the period to not yet include here.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential
impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate
weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be
overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this
morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under
500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection
environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for
cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central
Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of
the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient
over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds
to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon.
Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective
allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope
environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real
increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with
what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the
low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still
the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models
are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far
southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night
into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this
event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late
Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches
of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even
localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall
duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
VFR through 06z Friday. Strong SE winds 20-30 kts through sunset,
with higher gusts. SE winds will diminish a bit this evening, but
remain quite elevated overnight near 18-20 kts. High confidence
of MVFR/IFR cigs in stratus returning 06-12z Friday, with the
highest impacts on aviation expected at DDC. LIFR cigs possible
SE of DDC including P28. Patchy fog will redevelop after 06z as
well, with areas of BR and reduced visibility. Lowest vis expected
DDC and points SE. Consensus of short term models indicates MVFR
cigs in stratus will persist until around 18z Friday. After 18z
Friday, very strong SE winds will impact aviation operations with
gusts near 40 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 53 74 55 / 0 10 20 60
GCK 77 53 74 53 / 10 20 40 70
EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 60 70
LBL 78 53 75 54 / 0 10 40 70
HYS 75 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50
P28 74 52 76 57 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner/White
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PATCHY CLEAR SKY WAS
SEEN UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. JUST WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA CUMULUS CLOUDS/ISOLATED
STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WIND CONVERGENCE LINE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS WIND CONVERGENCE LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LATE TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL BE THICKEST. MOST
MODELS HAVE THE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A FEW MILES...ALTHOUGH A
FEW HAVE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER DOES NOT GIVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THE VISIBILITY
WILL BE LESS THAN A MILE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECLINING UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALLOWING THE
STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
NEAR THE STATE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE TIED TO THE DRY LINE...SINCE ANY LIFT ALONG THE DRY
LINE QUICKLY DECLINES TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STILL BE ONGOING AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY AS THE LOW DETERIORATES.
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH...COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER STILL SEEM LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FINALLY
RECEDES TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS RETURNING AND THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND A STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HEAVIER
RAIN RATES AND CONVECTION. PRIOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING
PROBLEMS...IF ANY...COULD BE AGGRAVATED BY FURTHER PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER FORECAST ITEM TO MONITOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
OVER EAST COLORADO. REMAIN HIGHLY SUSPECT OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS
A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAINS. ATMOSPHERIC COOLING IS
LIKELY AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST POSES A PROBLEM. AM ALSO UNSURE IF THE SURFACE COLD AIR
WILL ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO EAST
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK QUITE WARM WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MELTING AS THE SNOW FALLS. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES POSE YET ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THAT SAID...CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY SNOW POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY...POSITION/MOVEMENT OF
THIS LOW AND THE LOCATION/EXTENT OF COLDER AIR MASS. WHERE THAT
RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW. THE MAIN STORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN BUT RESIDENTS AND PARTNERS IN EAST
COLORADO SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS IN CASE SNOW BECOMES A
BIGGER STORY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH 8-11KTS AND A CLEAR
SKY. FROM 10Z TO 15Z OR 16Z STILL EXPECTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD 13KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GUSTS OVER 30KTS LIKELY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
347 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential
impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate
weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be
overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this
morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under
500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection
environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for
cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central
Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of
the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient
over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds
to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon.
Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective
allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope
environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real
increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with
what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the
low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still
the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models
are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far
southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night
into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this
event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late
Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches
of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even
localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall
duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
We will be monitoring trends overnight as stratus expands across
the entire area, or at least most of it in moist upslope flow at
max radiational cooling timing. The models may be too aggressive
in developing fairly widespread dense fog, whereas the GFS local
model output stats keep visibility up, likely owing to these
moderate surface winds ongoing at this time. A low confidence
forecast tonight, with TAF amendments likely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 53 74 55 / 0 10 30 50
GCK 75 53 74 53 / 10 20 50 60
EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 70 60
LBL 77 53 75 54 / 0 10 50 70
HYS 72 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50
P28 70 52 76 57 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OB
TIME. RATHER SATURATED COLUMN TO ABOUT 320 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER 1.57 INCHES. PRECIP LOADED APPEARANCE WITH SKINNY CAPE ON
339K LIFT FROM SURFACE. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HEATING DOES GET A
LIFT OF 342K BASED AT LCL 877MB. CHAP OUTPUT YIELDS A 57% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUST POTENTIAL 35 KT...PEA HAIL WITH A VIL OF
66. H50 TEMPERATURE OF -13C IS A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLUMN DOES DRY DOWNWARD FROM 300MB. RAIN
POTENTIAL IS INDICATED TO BE IN THE 2.5-5.0 INCH RANGE. WIND
PROFILE SHOWED SE FLOW BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW-W
15 TO 115 KT ABOVE. PEAK WIND 268/113KT AT 38.3KFT. TROPOPAUSE WAS
AT 201MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -55.7C.
FLIGHT TERMINATED AT 5.9 MB OR 21.5 MILES UP OVER JACKSON CO MS
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 57 AND GAUTIER-VANCLEAVE RD...65
MILES DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA
COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT
TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI.
BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND
10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST
ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK
UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT
THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK
TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL
DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF
WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 60 50 20
BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20
ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20
MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20
GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 60 50 20
PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 60 50 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA
COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT
TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI.
BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND
10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST
ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK
UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT
THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK
TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL
DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF
WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 70 50 20
BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20
ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20
MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20
GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 70 50 20
PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 70 50 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE
CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG
IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS
THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO-
LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS
TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND
AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR
THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN
NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80)
INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME
MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE PIEDMONT/INLAND AREAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT OVER SBY/RIC AND POSSIBLE PHF SO
SHOULD SEE WINDS GO VERY LIGHT AT THESE LOCATIONS WHILE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT FOR ORF/ECG. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY ONCE THE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS BY AROUND 13Z.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY
WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS
FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE
DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z
GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT
TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE)
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL
DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER
SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK
SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A
STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY
TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS
PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE
NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
914 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE
CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG
IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS
THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO-
LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS
TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND
AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR
THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN
NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80)
INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME
MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY, WITH NNE WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY OVER COASTAL TERMINALS AND ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY
WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS
FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE
DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z
GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT
TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE)
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL
DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER
SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK
SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A
STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY
TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS
PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE
NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING
YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL EASE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING
YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN
SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.
KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS
REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN
SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.
KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS
REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONSUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VERY QUIET PERIOD AHEAD. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN FORECAST. COULD GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOT WS
CRITERIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THINKING AT
THIS TIME IS IT WONT QUITE REACH CRITERIA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS S BCMG NE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
AM ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO WAS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA. A WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALL MOVE EAST...WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GIVE A BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE...MAINLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
LOW/FRONTS. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IN OR NEAR A THERMAL
RIDGE. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO HELP ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER SEVENTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA NORTH TO THE LAKE
WINNIE AREA...AND SIXTIES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NORTH
SHORE WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WE KEPT ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL SHOW EASTERLY WINDS...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO
GET SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WE EXPECT A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS...WITH UPPER FORTIES ON
PARK POINT TO LOWER SIXTIES OVER THE HILL.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN CHANCES.
THE LOW WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS EAST ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER
SEVENTIES. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER AS WILL LAKESIDE AREAS IN
THE TWIN PORTS AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
BEGINNING 00Z SATURDAY... EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE RECEIVING END
OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS INDICATED
BY SPC`S SREF MLCAPE FCST. SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM NW MN... BUT WILL SPREAD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE CWA 18Z MONDAY AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE... THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE BALMY SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND COOLER BY THE LAKE
(PARTICULARLY SATURDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER
TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS
WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE
MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 42 64 50 / 0 0 0 10
INL 60 45 67 51 / 40 40 10 60
BRD 75 48 70 54 / 0 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 65 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HAS PRODUCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 20 MPH OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND EVEN MORE SO OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH NORTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 40
FARTHER SOUTH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE THE SHOWERS...OR IF IT WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE. OF COURSE...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES STILL ONLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IT
WILL REACH THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER
TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS
WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE
MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 60 42 57 / 0 10 10 0
INL 35 63 45 67 / 0 30 40 0
BRD 39 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 37 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 29 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OR STEADY
RAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH WIND SWITCHING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS...PRIMARILY
FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND TERMINALS EAST. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-
FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO
WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH:
1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
(IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY
ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
BASIS.
2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30
PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE
LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR.
STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS
CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR
BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE
CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH
A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS
ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED
OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING:
EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE):
ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB
ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS
OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP
TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY
12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13
VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF
FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY
PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR
HAND.
TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET):
IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING
SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE
RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY
EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A
LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST
THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG
POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING
HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE
LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING
AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED
HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL
AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID-
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH
PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT
WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS
THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC
"ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS
AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE
TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20
MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL
RANGE OF 51-54.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN.
THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE
GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE
IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION
EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY
HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT
FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO
GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST.
LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD
CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER
INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I
FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR
POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING.
ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70
POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET
HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST.
UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF
RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO
NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD
FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY...THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUB-VFR...ONE RIGHT AWAY/ONGOING THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THIS HAS BEEN COVERED WITH
A GENERIC "VICINITY SHOWER" (VCSH) MENTION.
CEILING/VISIBILITY: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE IN FACT MOVED UP FROM
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH THINGS AS BAD IF NOT WORSE THAN
EXPECTED 6 HOURS AGO. FORTUNATELY...THESE VERY LOW CEILINGS AND
VARIABLE VISIBILITY IN FOG ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ROUGHLY 3
HOURS OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING/SCOURING OUT BUT THIS TIMING WILL
NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE THE MORNING GRUNGE CLEARS...MOST OF THE
DAY/NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD A
RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR (POSSIBLY WORSE) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT INITIALLY
THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AS
SKIES CLEAR WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE AS GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) COULD APPROACH/REACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS WELL-BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO EXAMINE AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-
FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO
WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH:
1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
(IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY
ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
BASIS.
2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30
PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE
LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR.
STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS
CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR
BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE
CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH
A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS
ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED
OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING:
EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE):
ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB
ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS
OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP
TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY
12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13
VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF
FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY
PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR
HAND.
TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET):
IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING
SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE
RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY
EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A
LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST
THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG
POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING
HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE
LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING
AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED
HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL
AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID-
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH
PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT
WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS
THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC
"ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS
AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE
TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20
MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL
RANGE OF 51-54.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN.
THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE
GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE
IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION
EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY
HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT
FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO
GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST.
LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD
CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER
INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I
FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR
POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING.
ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70
POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET
HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST.
UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF
RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO
NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD
FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY HIGH THAT VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS/QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING WHAT MIGHT TRANSPIRE MAINLY IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS COULD EASILY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM MVFR
TO LIFR (MORE DETAILS BELOW) IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD.
CEILING/VISIBILITY: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MAINLY THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME WILL
UNFOLD...AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGEST DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT (WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN STEADY SOUTH
BREEZES) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR/LIFR CEILING. IT`S
HARD TO IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CEILING SURGING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTH...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND
NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A LOW CEILING TO THE
TAFS FOR THIS MORNING BUT KEPT IT AT IFR LEVELS (AT LEAST FOR
NOW) ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG. FORTUNATELY...ANY
STRATUS/FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN ROUGHLY 4 HOURS AS
IT MIXES OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THEREAFTER. STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF ADJUSTMENTS HERE...
WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT EARLY
THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD APPROACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL TO FORMALLY INCLUDE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS DEPICT
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE...INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND DAYBREAK. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FROM MODELS INDICATE STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER...THUS KEPT THAT MENTION IN THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST. OTHERWISE BLENDED CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO LATEST
SHORT TERM HIGH RES FORECAST. ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 0135
UTC AND A 9 MEMBER TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 22-00 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC
AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING
SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS
THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH
FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING
HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY
DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL
THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL
AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED
BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE
WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
AT MIDNIGHT CDT...A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS MOVING
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE MOVING EAST
AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT OR 6 PM MDT ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM CDT WEDNESDAY:
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL
CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
302 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW
POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP
EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD
SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE
DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND
1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL
BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE
VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL
STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND
850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES
OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE
COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC
NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF
OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF
INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF
PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF
RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL
PRECIP WILL EXIT.
TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND
850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES
OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE
COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC
NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATEDWATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF
OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF
INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF
PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF
RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL
PRECIP WILL EXIT.
TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
126 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO
CENTER OF UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING UP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. H-TRIPLE-R HAS ACTIVITY MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE MID STATE BY MIDNIGHT. BASICALLY KEPT TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THEY WILL GO DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE DUE TO
FOG.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO
CENTER OF UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
UPPER LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MEAN MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW TSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY CKV/BNA. THIS MAY BRING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN INTO
MVFR LEVELS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO BE MORE ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LARGELY
VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.........................01/BOYD
SHORT/LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT REACHING IFR AT
DRT AND LIFT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF ANY CONVECTION
MOVES OVER A TERMINAL IT WILL LOWER VIS BY ONE CATEGORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 77 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 69 76 68 / 10 40 30 80 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 74 65 73 64 / 10 40 40 80 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 81 66 81 65 / 20 30 50 60 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 67 74 66 / 10 30 40 80 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 69 77 67 / 10 40 40 80 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 68 74 66 / 10 30 30 80 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 70 75 69 / 10 30 30 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 77 68 76 68 / 10 40 40 80 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 69 77 69 / 10 30 30 80 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE LIKELY ALLOWING LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT-SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS IT FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AOA 19Z
THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN TEMPS BEING CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 70S
WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S. THE UA TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEMAND
OUR ATTENTION WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR NWRN AZ AND HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF PER 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS STILL PROGGED TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILST TRANSLATING ESE TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
DRAWING NEAR...SFC LEE TROUGHING DEEPENED AS WELL RESULTING IN
BREEZY SERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA /20-25 MPH SUSTAINED/
WHICH HAS AIDED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S.
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER IS
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S NOTED
ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO...THUS MATERIALIZING THE DRYLINE. JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE ARE WHAT MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUN ITERATIONS. THE RAP
SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE THUS SUGGESTING IT ALSO HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE...WHICH IS PUSHING THE DRYLINE ONTO THE FAR WRN ZONES
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE RETREATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
AS SUCH...IT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHICH MODEL BEST REPRESENTS WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
WILL ARISE IS THE PRESSING QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS
RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS COMMENCING AT NOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND POINTS NWRD...WHICH MORE OR LESS HAS OCCURRED...BUT
RADAR ECHOES WERE LIGHT AND THE ACTIVITY WAS ELEVATED /NO PRECIP
REACHED THE GROUND/. THE HRRR...NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED CI
ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH PLAINS AT 20Z/21Z...CLOSE TO
THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE /WITH THE CAP ERODING BY THEN/.
THE LATTER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS
STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS /WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE/.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE FEATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONSISTING OF A 70-80 KT 250 MB LEFT
EXIT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SBC OF 1500-2500 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL TORNADOES AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
HOURS...LCL/S DROP TO AOA 4000FT AGL WHILST HELICITY INCREASES AND
HODOGRAPHS SHOW THAT CLASSIC VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY DECLINE BUT A CONTINUAL SFC SERLY
FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WELL AS A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSEVERE. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND A 70 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK PUSHES OUT ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS STORMS WILL RE-GENERATE.
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCES OF RENEWED PRECIP TO BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SURGES TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE COULD BE OVERDONE AND MAY
NOT BE AS FAR EAST AS SUGGESTED...SO THE SOUTH PLAINS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS JUST YET. DO AGREE HOWEVER THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
AXIS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP /60S AND 70S/. /29
LONG TERM...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CUTOFF VICINITY OF THE FOUR-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN THIS
CYCLE IS FOR MORE APPARENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH THE DRY-LINE OFF TO
THE EAST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WE HAD BEEN EXPECTING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LATCHED ON SHIFTING MOISTURE AXIS A BIT
QUICKER EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE A DEEP CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO SEEMS LACKING OR IMMATURE AT BEST
AT LEAST IMPACTING OUR SPECIFIC AREA. STILL...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND GIVE PERHAPS OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE
COORDINATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT APPEAR A
LITTLE GENEROUS ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN
TOTALS HAVE DROPPED A BIT...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE MOST CURRENT
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO ALLOW ANOTHER LOOK OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE. IT REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE TYPES
OF LOWS FIT PAST ANALOGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FAVORING THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALSO WILL STILL OFFER AT LEAST BRIEF SEVERE
POTENTIAL THOUGH AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
QUICKLY USED UP.
A WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
THE FRONT TO LIFT THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATE
ADEQUATE FOR CHANCE CATEGORY. UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPRESSED WITH
COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT.
THUNDER CHANCES BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE
OLD UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST AND HEIGHTS REBUILDING. SHOWER
CHANCES SHOW A SLOW DECLINE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND NOT SHOWING MUCH TO LATCH
ONTO YET. /05RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHARPENING UP NEAR THE TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS ERN NM VERSUS 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FA.
A FEW SITES IN ERN NM HAVE TICKED OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTH..THOUGH THE BOUNDARY STILL NEEDS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND 20-FOOT SOUTHEAST ARE INDEED
BREEZY /20-25 MPH/...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AND EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT...FILTERING IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH 20-FOOT SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. HOWEVER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL...CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL COULD AID TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. /29
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT VCT AGAIN LATE
TNGT WITH LIFR ALSO PSBL AT ALI. QUICK IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
AFTER 13-14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED A
LITTLE EARLY. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BUT
OVERALL THE PREV FCST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH A WARM AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING
DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS
VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO
ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF
LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO
KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG
IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING
WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES
POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TJ/70...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING
DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS
VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO
ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF
LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/.
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO
KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG
IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING
WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES
POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA
SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...UPDATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
309 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TODAY THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE AREA
BY LATER TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE IS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. A BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY NORTH
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING STEADILY AND
PRESENTLY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE SEATTLE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF WASHINGTON AND
OFFSHORE. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE OFFSHORE LOW CENTER
WEAKENING WITH RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS IT WAS...LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN EFFECT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TODAY. THE LOW WILL PIVOT
QUICKLY EAST AS IT FILLS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY EARLY
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A MORE TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY WITH
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ATOP EAST- CENTRAL WASHINGTON. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB AS WELL AND 70S TO 80S WILL RETURN FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AT +14 TO +16C
AND SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS OF AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS WELL WITH THE RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW. NEXT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY AND SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A FILLING
999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...BECOMING STABLE TONIGHT.
KSEA...A BAND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT AND BE GENERALLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WIND
4-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...A FILLING 999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD EASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE WEST SWELL 10-15 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH
AND KING COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY
TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT
TONIGHT FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
918 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING SHOWERY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A VERTICALLY STACKED AND FILLING 993 MB SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED NEAR 47N 132W THIS EVENING...OR WELL OFF THE SOUTH WA
COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB BY THE
TIME IT CROSSES THE FAR NRN ORE COAST ON THU MORNING...WITH
CONTINUED WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON
THU AFTN. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES EAST
OF OUR LONGITUDE...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WA
THIS EVNG...THEN SPREAD NE THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND REGION
OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OR A
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE CASCADES FROM SNOQUALMIE PASS ON NORTH
ON THU MORNING. THE 02Z HRRR DUMPS NEARLY ONE INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AT STEVENS PASS THU MORNING...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW PASS LEVEL. WILL SOON DO A FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE
SNOW AMOUNTS THERE IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
AFTER THE LOW CENTER PASSES EAST LATER THU...LARGER SCALE LIFT
WILL END...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND SW INTERIOR. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL RISE STRONGLY ON THU NGT AND FRI...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF
SHALLOW AND WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ON FRI.
THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SAT MORNING. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE
FURTHER...AND THE ENTIRE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
OUT. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CRANK UP ON SAT NGT.
THEREFORE...A SOLID CLEARING...DRYING AND WARMING TREND ON SAT
AFTN. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING
WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THAT
HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
SOMEWHAT MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
THERE IS A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COAST AND SOUTH PART WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
KSEA...THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME DRYING IS LIKELY LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES
IN. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 4-8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED FILLING 999 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OR NORTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING. GALES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY WONT MATERIALIZE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR OTHER WATERS WILL ALSO COME DOWN TONIGHT.
THE ONLY REMAINING HAZARDS BY THURSDAY WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 12-15
FOOT WEST SWELL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS RISE IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIVE SMALL CRAFT WEST WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THURSDAY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...EXPANDING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAY BE OVERDOING DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY AS
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MORE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S RANGE WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE LOW 30S OVER LOWER
MI TO THE MID 40S OVER THE OH VALLEY. WENT WITH A BLEND AND
LOWERED DEWPTS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. ALSO LOWERED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT READINGS AND LOW DEWPTS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. DEPENDING UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...FEW CU ARE
POSSIBLE ON SAT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS...LOWER
WAVES AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION FOR DEWPOINTS. IF DEWPOINTS
TURN OUT LOWER ON SATURDAY...MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE
RANGE...THEN MIN RH VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.
MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN CWA
AND 20FT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. MOST
IMPORTANTLY...THE FORECAST FINE FUEL MOISTURE CODE /FFMC/ FOR
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90 TO 91.5 RANGE. HENCE IF AFTN
RH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING.
LLVL FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SE. SFC DEWPOINT PROGS LOOK TOO
GENEROUS...INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY..SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH PRIOR
FCST AND NAM MOS VALUES. BUFKIT SHOWS COLUMN VRY PARCHED. SO ANY
MIXING WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT. ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ONTO 925 TEMPS FROM TODAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PREFER A COOLER LOOK BY THE LAKE
HOWEVER WITH THE SUSTAINED ESE FLOW SO MOS LOOKS TOO WARM
THERE...ESP GFS MOS. SUPERBLEND UNDERCUT THIS AND WILL TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AT 500 MB PUSHES EAST A LITTLE BUT STILL
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER
LOW WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER
HIGH SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN...WITH THE
RIDGE WEAKENING ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
700 MB RH IS DRY WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB JUST
BELOW THE STABLE LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS MAINLY INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM INLAND...WITH ONSHORE
WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOL. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION INCREASES A LITTLE LATER MONDAY...BUT THE HIGHER RH
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER...AND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND ACCELERATE
ALONG THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH DIMINISHES AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND MAY EVENTUALLY REMOVE THE
CHANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. MEANWHILE A ZONAL
JET ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS THE
COLD AIR LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STAYS DRY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY/STABLE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE.
MARINE...WAVES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 16/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR MOSAIC FROM
AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE INHERITED POP FORECAST SHOWS THIS
NOTION...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.
BOTH THE RED FLAG WARNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER.
AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A
TEMP OF 68 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83
DEGS...WHICH WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. INHERITED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK...BUT WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW RECENT TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
SWLY SFC WIND DIMINISHING AFT AROUND 16/06Z TO 8 TO 12 KTS. FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ESP N TO NE OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD. ISOLD
-SHRA/-SHSN NE OF KSAD AFT 16/06Z. WLY/NWLY SFC WIND INCREASING
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...ESP NEAR THE NM BORDER INCLUDING KSAD/KDUG.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FT WINDS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA. THEREAFTER...20-FT WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT
MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND
AREA WIDE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COLDER PROTECTED SPOTS
OF COCHISE COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DRY NW FLOW MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 90S IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LOW DESERT AREAS.
MODELS HINTING AT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH IS OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
352 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...Quiet Weather This Weekend...Unsettled Weather Pattern Next
Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
No big changes in the forecast thinking with this morning`s
update. Fairly quiet and nice weather will continue this weekend.
A mixture of sun and mid level clouds can be expected with
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s today and tomorrow. Will
not rule out an isolated sprinkle around but most areas will
remain dry and breezy. Southeasterly winds will be between 10 and
20 mph this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
The very slow moving upper level low pressure system starts to
move out across the Central Plains region early next week. Most of
next week looks unsettled but not a complete wash out either given
day. We will expect scattered showers and isolated convection
chances starting Monday through mid week. There will be a better
chance for more coverage of showers and scattered storms late
Wednesday into Thursday as the main system finally moves over the
area.
Overall total QPF or rainfall expected will be generally 1
to 2 inches. Due to the lack of recent rainfall...there will be
no hydro or flooding concerns. At this time...no severe weather is
expected with the only hazards being occasional lightning. The
upper level system finally begins to move away from the area by
Friday. Temperatures next week will be mild in the upper 60s and
70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Low level moisture will remain in place across the area tonight
and should see some MVFR ceilings develop at both SGF/BBG which
will linger through much of the day Saturday. Tigher surface
pressure gradient will lead to steady southeast wind through the
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
352 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
...Quiet Weather This Weekend...Unsettled Weather Pattern Next
Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
No big changes in the forecast thinking with this morning`s
update. Fairly quiet and nice weather will continue this weekend.
A mixture of sun and mid level clouds can be expected with
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s today and tomorrow. Will
not rule out an isolated sprinkle around but most areas will
remain dry and breezy. Southeasterly winds will be between 10 and
20 mph this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
The very slow moving upper level low pressure system starts to
move out across the Central Plains region early next week. Most of
next week looks unsettled but not a complete wash out either given
day. We will expect scattered showers and isolated convection
chances starting Monday through mid week. There will be a better
chance for more coverage of showers and scattered storms late
Wednesday into Thursday as the main system finally moves over the
area.
Overall total QPF or rainfall expected will be generally 1
to 2 inches. Due to the lack of recent rainfall...there will be
no hydro or flooding concerns. At this time...no severe weather is
expected with the only hazards being occasional lightning. The
upper level system finally begins to move away from the area by
Friday. Temperatures next week will be mild in the upper 60s and
70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Low level moisture will remain in place across the area tonight
and should see some MVFR ceilings develop at both SGF/BBG which
will linger through much of the day Saturday. Tigher surface
pressure gradient will lead to steady southeast wind through the
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
337 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparible to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in ernest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
With surface ridge holding to our east and weather system to our
west, will remain in east to southeast flow through forecast
period. Dry VFR conditions expected, though KCOU to remain on
edge of strato cu deck through midday on Saturday, so have broken
cigs at 6000 feet.
Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge holding to our east and weather system to our
west, will remain in east to southeast flow through forecast
period. Dry VFR conditions expected.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH
THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT
0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3
HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED
OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT
MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME.
HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF
ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A
VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY
CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL
RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END
RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS
FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH
THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST
THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA.
MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO
COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA.
AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING
THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR
BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT
RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2
MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO
NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS
HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK
FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR
BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW CROSSING. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY DROP FROM 6-7K FT FROM N
CENTRAL TO NW AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE N MTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE W CENTRAL AND CHUSKA MTS. MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS/SHRA LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY E OF THE CONTDVD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVEL LIFTS ABOVE 8K FT. MORE IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN IS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND W INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER NEAR 6500 FT ACROSS N CENTRAL AREAS
AGAIN.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 52 31 55 33 / 60 30 40 30
DULCE........................... 49 25 52 29 / 70 30 70 50
CUBA............................ 46 27 50 30 / 60 50 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 47 26 53 26 / 60 30 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 45 24 50 25 / 70 30 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 49 26 52 27 / 60 30 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 52 27 53 31 / 60 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 64 33 64 36 / 20 10 10 10
CHAMA........................... 44 20 45 25 / 80 50 80 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 29 49 33 / 60 50 60 50
PECOS........................... 51 28 49 31 / 60 50 60 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 24 46 26 / 70 60 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 40 21 38 24 / 80 70 60 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 22 41 25 / 70 70 60 50
TAOS............................ 47 25 48 27 / 60 50 50 30
MORA............................ 47 25 45 29 / 60 70 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 55 29 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 50 28 51 31 / 50 50 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 30 53 33 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 35 55 37 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 38 58 40 / 30 30 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 34 59 35 / 30 20 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 34 59 35 / 40 20 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 38 61 39 / 30 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 36 58 38 / 40 30 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 60 37 63 40 / 30 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 30 51 33 / 50 40 50 50
TIJERAS......................... 52 32 54 35 / 40 40 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 27 54 31 / 30 30 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 51 31 / 30 30 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 31 55 34 / 20 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 34 60 37 / 10 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 54 34 / 10 10 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 46 28 45 28 / 70 60 40 30
RATON........................... 48 29 47 28 / 70 60 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 50 28 49 29 / 50 50 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 28 49 30 / 50 50 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 55 34 54 35 / 60 30 30 30
ROY............................. 56 32 53 33 / 40 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 63 36 61 36 / 30 30 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 36 61 37 / 20 30 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 38 63 38 / 30 20 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 69 39 63 39 / 20 10 20 30
PORTALES........................ 70 40 64 40 / 10 10 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 39 64 40 / 10 10 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 74 43 69 44 / 5 5 10 20
PICACHO......................... 66 37 62 39 / 5 5 20 20
ELK............................. 59 34 58 36 / 5 5 20 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NM505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SHORT TERM UPDATED WITH THE TIME LAGGED HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR POPS
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS.
SMOOTH THE POPS WITH RADAR LOOPS AS GUIDE.
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SHALLOW COOL WEDGE OF AIR POOLING TO THE
WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME SLEET POTENTIAL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP RAIN=SNOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS
TO BE JUST A BRIEF PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 18 UTC AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC
GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN
REGARDING HOW WELL WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON WARM GROUND AND
ROADS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF SOUNDINGS AT DICKINSON AND MINOT FROM
THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RAP ITERATIONS AVAILABLE AS OF 0230
UTC...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST FOR A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY
MORNING...POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A BLEND OF THE 21 UTC BIAS
CORRECTED HIGH RESOLUTION SUITE AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
30S. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER AND WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE WARM
GROUND AND ROADWAYS. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...FOR
BOWMAN AND HETTINGER...ARCHING THROUGH DICKINSON...KILLDEER AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
MODEL ITERATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
A WET AND INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
RAIN...SNOW...AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS
TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POCKET OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK CAPE AND
SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING SEVERE.
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GET GOING. THIS
WILL WANE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY. A STRONG 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO +9C IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW RIDING
NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SOUTHWEST...AND PARTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT
THREE HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW AT DICKINSON SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT
ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE FROST POINT EXCEEDING
THE TEMPERATURE WITHIN A SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH RESPECT
TO ICE. ALL THIS POINTS TO POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WPC AND RAPID CITY WFO...WE DECIDED ON ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SNOW LIKELY WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM/GFS
ARE SIMILAR WITH THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN...SHIFTING IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE WESTERN BORDER...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE WESTERN
EDGE INTO DICKINSON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXIST FOR FAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY...MAINLY LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ATOP A LOW LEVEL 35KT 850MB JET
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A COUPLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SEEN WITHIN THE EMBEDDED
FLOW. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW
WORKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A
700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z
SATURDAY...AND MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELD AND
850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-18Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST AND NORTH..AND RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE ABOVE CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MOISTURE POOLING INTO THIS AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS. THE LOW FINALLY
GETS KICKED OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER
PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SIMILAR
PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE OF A WET PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL ENVELOPE ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK SATURDAY MORNING THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KMOT. KISN WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND BUT
MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LOW VIS IN SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-018-019-
021-032-033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT 04Z FROM
JUST WEST OF ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO ABOUT MAYVILLE-HILLSBORO TO
NEAR VALLEY CITY. IT CONTINUES ON A GOOD PACE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
GET THROUGH FARGO BUT EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR A
WARROAD TO FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO THEN BACK INTO FAR SE
CORNER OF ND SATURDAY MORNING. ISSUE IS RAIN AREA MOVING
NORTH...IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO QPF
FCST. INCOMING 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DRY SLOT INTO MUCH OF
THE RRV AND NW/WCNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
MAIN HEAVY RAIN AREA SITS UP IN CNTRL AND WRN ND. HRRR SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF FARGO
NORTHEAST TOWARD FOSSTON-BAGLEY. DID TWEEK GRIDDS FOR A BIT BETTER
TEMP GRADIENT USING HRRR AND TWEEKED POPS/WX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT SO A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ND AND ASSOCIATED SHRA ACROSS THE FA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM S CENTRAL ND ARCING NE TO
THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES PUSH THIS BOUNDARY A
BIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SW-NE
BY MORNING. INITIALLY FA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY EVENING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL WEAKEN BUT PROPAGATE NNE AND RIDE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF
EXPECTED BOUNDARY. JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL DETERMINE
BEST LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
WITH SHOWALTERS AROUND ZERO AND A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLD T. WITH SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXPECTED PCPN
WILL SEE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
HINGING ON BOUNDARY SET UP.
UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA ALSO SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT BEING
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING ON COLD SIDE
OF TROUGH AND IMPULSES EJECTING NNE FROM UPPER LOW COULD SEE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. MODELS
DID TREND A BIT WEST WITH PCPN SHIELD HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE WESTERN FA/DVL BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY BY SUNDAY AM COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 1-2 INCHES. PCPN
LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA AND AGAIN WILL SEE A
SHARP THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
EXPECTING PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH
LOSES DEFINITION AND DRIER E-NW FLOW SETS UP AND SURFACE HIGH
NOSES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS.
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST OF GREENLAND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE
NORTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND DEEPENS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATES. THE GFS WAS
THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE
MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE MODELS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE AND WED. HIGH TEMPS THU
WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO AND FRI TEMPS WEE INCREASED THREE OR
FOUR DEGREES IN THE SOUTH AND DECREASED ZERO TO SIX DEGREES IN THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
COMPLICATED TAF/AVIATION FCST. ALL DEPENDS ON FRONTAL LOCATION.
GOING WITH IDEA OF FRONT SATURDAY MORNING STALLING OUT NR A
WARROAD-FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO. THAT WOULD BE ALL BUT
BEMIDJI IN THE NORTH WIND AND IFR-MVFR CIGS. BEMIDJI WOULD STAY
VFR. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...BEST BET FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
DEVILS LAKE. LOOK FOR A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ESP
DVL REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS OR MAYBE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON
THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY
SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
301 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU
LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT
WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE
BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND
AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO
TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW
60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION
AND SPEED WILL BE A VERY NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH A
LAKE BREEZE BUMPING SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY...A FEW
VFR CUMULUS MAY ACTUALLY BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
123 AM CDT
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE
COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE.
NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN
THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE
SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1001 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area
clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus
development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing
through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already
approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor
upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings
possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S.
will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high
thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at
times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with
peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s
values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper
70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast
most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered
over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico.
Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will
be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas
north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday
with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while
550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts
northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep
central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of
sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during
Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with
increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of
I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s.
Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed
afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper
level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best
chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night
as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the
upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered
afternoon cloud cover around 6-7 kft expected, with otherwise
clear or high thin cirrus sky conditions. Winds E-SE 5-12 kts
through the period, with occasional higher gusts in the afternoon.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
717 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparible to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in ernest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 716 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Blocking pattern will remain in place through the weekend with a
large high pressure area to the east and a strong low pressure
area to the west. VFR condition will prevail with a southeast
wind.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR with a southeast wind.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH
THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT
0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3
HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED
OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT
MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO
HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME.
HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF
ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A
VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY
CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL
RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END
RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING
WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE
LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN
THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS
FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH
THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST
THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA.
MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO
COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA.
AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING
THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN
INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WITH SUCH AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A STRONG FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TIMING THE ONSET AND
EXIT OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE
MODELS...INCLUDING CAMS...HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SEVERAL WAVES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE PRECIP. BEST
MID LEVEL FORCING CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
GOOD MID LEVEL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN
KS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW ANCHORED FURTHER WEST...THE NWD
MOVEMENT OF NEWLY DEVELOPED AND ORGANZIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL
BE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE
RAINING CONSTANTLY. FCST MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SEWD SLOWLY TODAY
AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO NWRLY OR NRLY AND INCREASE.
CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO MAIN LINES WHICH WILL
ROTATE UP TO THE N THEN NW BY MOST MODELS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
THE TAF LOCATIONS IN IFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN LIFR AT TIMES WHEN
HEAVIEST RAIN IS OCCURRING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT
RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2
MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO
NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS
HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE
HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM.
SOME -SN THIS MORNING AT KGUP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS
AFTN...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KROW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT LIKELY. A BACK DOOR FRONT
NOW OVER NE/EC NM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LONG STRETCH OF FINE SPRING WEATHER
WITH SUNSHINE AND STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LOOK FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TO RETURN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WITH
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND TAKING
ON AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A FEW DEGREES C WARMER AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE THE SAME TIME
YESTERDAY SO THE FORECAST WILL ESSENTIALLY BE AN ADJUSTED
PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID 60S
NORTH COUNTRY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITHIN A
MILE OR TWO OF THE LAKE. THAT SAME NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVENT ANY
LAKE INFLUENCE IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
ALSO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO CAPTURE
ITS PROGRESSION FAIRLY WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR
AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY THAT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST
925MB TEMPERATURES SEEN YET (+12/+13C) IN THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL DAYS. THUS SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND...
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION FAVORING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WIND. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR
THE STRONGEST LAKE BREEZE PUSH INTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORELINE DOWN IN THE 50S FOR
HIGHS.
ON MONDAY... A BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES...
AS A WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA... SUPPRESSING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOW 70S IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY. A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING... SPARKING OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. TROUGHING
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FEW DIURNAL &
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE
TROUGH...OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER BACK IN
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
FINALLY DIRT EASTWARD AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE WITH EJECTING CUT-OFF LOWS... MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK... SO STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
OUR WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 15Z TAF AMD. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING
THIS FLOW A BIT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LAKE
BREEZE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH TAFS REFLECTING THIS
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 12 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH WAVES UNDER 2 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH
WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXPECT
TRUE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A DRY AND STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH
DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
OCCURRING WITH AND BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
855 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON
THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN
AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY
SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
301 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU
LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT
WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE
BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND
AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO
TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE
COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
322 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW
60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
FINE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT...BACKING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE FOR ORD/MDW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE COLUMN IS STILL RATHER DRY...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FAIR WEATHER
VFR CU IN THE 5500-7500 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST
OF CHICAGO.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
123 AM CDT
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE
COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE.
NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN
THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE
SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area
clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus
development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing
through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already
approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor
upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings
possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area.
Updated zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S.
will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high
thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at
times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with
peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s
values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper
70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast
most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered
over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico.
Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will
be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas
north of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday
with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while
550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts
northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep
central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of
sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during
Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with
increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of
I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s.
Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed
afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and
thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper
level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best
chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night
as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the
upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours. Some scattered
cumulus has started to develop just northeast of KPIA, and HRRR
shows some expansion across the TAF sites early this afternoon,
but only scattered in nature. These will fade with sunset, leaving
clear skies once again. Southeast winds will prevail during the
period, close to 10 knots this afternoon and again toward late
Sunday morning, settling down a bit at night.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main
story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and
meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as
the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus
may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the
potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should
allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few
peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s.
Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday
afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen
and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of
the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but
supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath
of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across
portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves
eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some
uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general
model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just
north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will
continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall
severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but
certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the
period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week
ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will
eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures
beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with
the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus
remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling
heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some
thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at
bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems
reasonable based on forecast persistence.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most
part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas,
especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near
60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were
thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some
additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but
expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO
versus other areas.
Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above
today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy
today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in
the day from clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin
for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring
low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some
showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area
of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as
the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern
cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave.
Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region
Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of
lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to
move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu.
Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase
and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if
instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed
afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities
and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm
chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in
general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous
runs.
It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late
Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front
pull away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to
mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to
begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR
ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by
mid to late morning on Sunday.
Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and
remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast
period.
&&
.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gaede
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing
influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half
of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and
increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds
over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to
produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12
degrees above average for this time of year.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue
to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a
wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will
maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most
locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence
for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly
preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area,
especially the MS river and east, for Monday.
The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on
Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the
midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what
will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it
moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these
areas will see more clouds.
The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on
Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are
depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but
there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types
of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower
timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night.
All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday,
and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s.
The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and
Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during
this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe
with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a
surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support.
Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in
the low 70s.
Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft
looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should
signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry.
TES
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40
Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40
Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into
the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated
by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain
a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in
veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA.
Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although
there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as
supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably
warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to
yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really
proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing
from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will
suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to
become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into
the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday-
Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western
U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries
will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around
Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should
remain above average.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016
VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal
cu at times, and occasional cirrus.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A
SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW
AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND
40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST
AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA
VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO
A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED
IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE
RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND
700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW
SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO
MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.
SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A
DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN
NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY
AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO
STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT
BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF
THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS.
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND
DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW
FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM
UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP
THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S
BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED...AND VISBY WILL BE REDUCED DURING HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY AFFECT
KLBF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY FROM KMCK TO KANW AND WEST...WHILE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KONL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE
RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY
DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES
LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND
EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS
ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL
BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS
TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN
A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE
CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MESSY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ONE MORE DAY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND
ACROSS EC/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO
POTENTIALLY 40 KT AT TCC/ROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER DURING THE
EVE ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PUSH CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE NE THIRD
WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. LOW CIGS/VIS
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVE HRS.
CANT RULE OUT SOME TS IMPACTS ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT
TOO STABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AEG/ABQ. WILL BE MONITORING THAT
TREND. CURRENTLY HAVE TS IN FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES. PRECIP WONT
TURN OFF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. THIS
MEANS LOW CIG AND PERHAPS SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO NEAR
SATURDAY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING
TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN
SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS
ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO
KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING
TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS
WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING
WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID
MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY
ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
MIDDAY.
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE
RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE
RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN
WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA
ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST
RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK
EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT
WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT
OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY
RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE.
MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND
AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS.
AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM
TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR
MOST AREAS.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505-510>515.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES
OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY
REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE.
I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING
POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST
REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON
TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING
THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISC...
AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DOMINATES THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF
2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL A
CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT
IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE
WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS
EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN.
FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM
SNOW INTO RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT
OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY
BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
AERODROMES...BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KISN WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS A RISE BACK TO VFR
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN AT KJMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-
003-010-011-019-021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.AVIATION...
A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
DAY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM.
ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR
GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER
600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND
720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS
LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM
AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON.
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE
DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK
REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM.
AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS
OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
AVIATION...
1612/1712 TAFS...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR
FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ
INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE
PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY
MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S
STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH
TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE
THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90
HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80
GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60
PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90
DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM.
ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR
GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER
600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND
720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS
LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM
AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON.
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT
RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE
DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK
REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM.
AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS
OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
AVIATION...
1612/1712 TAFS...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR
FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ
INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE
PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY
MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S
STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END
RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH
TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE
THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90
HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80
GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60
PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90
DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-
044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF
SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF
55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO
AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND
CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E.
THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH
DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE
LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK
NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS
AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO
ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN
MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING
HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK A TAD HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE
SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL
IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS
SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT
POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO.
SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST
POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY.
THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR
LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE
TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS
STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR
TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN
AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD
EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF
SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF
55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO
AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND
CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E.
THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH
DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE
LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK
NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS
AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO
ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN
MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING
HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK A TAD HIGHER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE
SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL
IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS
SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT
POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO.
SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST
POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY.
THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR
LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE
TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM
CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS
STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR
TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN
AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD
EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW SOUTHERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE.
GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPC