Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/16/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...IN THE SHORT TERM...A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23-00Z. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WINDSOR AND SANTA ROSA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WEATHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A NICE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RAPID WARMING AND DRYING WILL OCCUR. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...INTERIOR POSS LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. A COOL DOWN WILL BE NOTICED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 2:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...MRY BAY && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1107 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS 0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST- FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7 DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS 90 DEG. IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 845 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.10 INCH OR LESS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH BAY TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST THREE HOURS AND ISOLATED LIGHT AMOUNTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS RELATIVELY STRONG DESENDING AIR WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS 0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST- FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7 DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS 90 DEG. IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD OVER 10 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ006-505-509 HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ529-530 SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: 30/BLIER AVIATION: 30 MARINE: 30 VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS 0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST- FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7 DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS 90 DEG. IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS 0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST- FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7 DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS 90 DEG. IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND 1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND 1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER AVIATION: LARRY MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS....A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER...OUR REGION BASKED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NEARLY ZERO. BUT THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION TIMING OVERNIGHT. BOTH SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH BAY BY 2 AM. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 4 AM THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY. BECAUSE THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH BAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODEL DATA INDICATE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO DEGREES C IN THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY MORNING. BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN BY MIDDAY TO OFFSET THIS COOL AIRMASS TO SOME EXTENT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY BEGIN TO WARM THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA...BUT ALSO TURN THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY AND BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WARMING ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE MODEST. THE WARMING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INLAND OVER CA AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY...AT BOTH INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND 1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND 1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 10:34 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THURSDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS COOL AIR PUSHES IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: LARRY MARINE: LARRY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1033 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD BEACHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... .UPDATE...WIND SURGE CONTINUES ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AFFECTING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE TREASURE COAST LATER INTO SATURDAY. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO RESPOND AT BUOY 41009 20 MILES OFF THE CAPE CANAVERAL COAST WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. HAVE TRANSITIONED COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST LATER ON SATURDAY AS WIND SURGE WORKS DOWN THE COAST. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE BUT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE SURF UP TO THE DUNES. SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE COASTAL AREAS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS OVERNIGHT. APPEARS BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COAST WILL BE FAVORED FOR SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER BANDS SETTING UP WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH SOME ATLANTIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SAT-SUN...(FROM PREV DISC...)LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AFT...WITH BREEZY (POTENTIALLY WINDY) CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY...UP TO 50-60 PERCENT DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FL COMBINED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ALOFT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFT. POPS THEN DECREASE INTO SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. MON-THU...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHIFTING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OUT OF THE FORECAST MON-WED. INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING S/SE FLOW FROM RIDGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LEAD TO A RISE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW/MID 80S) BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FOR NRN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHC FOR SHRA...MAINLY KDAB-KVRB OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND UTILIZE 18Z WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS WHICH WAS HANDLING INCREASED SEAS/SURGE FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. NRN WATERS WILL SEE A SOLID 25 KNOTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN AND WILL START FOR THE SRN WATERS AT 4 AM. CWF UPDATE AVBL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 75 63 75 / 40 50 30 10 MCO 66 80 64 80 / 20 50 20 10 MLB 68 78 67 77 / 50 60 30 20 VRB 66 80 67 78 / 40 60 30 20 LEE 65 79 61 79 / 20 50 20 10 SFB 65 78 61 78 / 30 50 20 10 ORL 66 79 63 78 / 30 50 20 10 FPR 66 80 68 78 / 30 60 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER RADAR/IMPACT WX....SHARP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND... CURRENT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND 10AM. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST BEYOND THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LIMIT OF 60NM WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT. INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHORT TERM MODELS...RAP40/HRRR...INDICATING THAT SHOWERS SHOULD START TO THE WEST NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD START FORMING MID AFTERNOON AND ALSO MOVE EAST. PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH 10000 FEET WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WHERE THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. MORNING ZONES UPDATE WILL AMEND TIMING AND WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. .AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VIS INTERIOR KISM-KDED TIL 15Z THEN VFR. VCTS 18Z-06Z GOOD CALL AS TIMING OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL UNCERTAIN. AFT 06Z VCSH LOOKS GOOD. .MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE AFTER 1 PM AT THE COAST. SEA BREEZES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INLAND VERY FAR AGAINST A PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS. TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB PROMOTING INSTABILITY. EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S. FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC. PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS) AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/- 14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG. SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION... BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN. TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL TUE-WED. && .AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW STRONG STORMS. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS. FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT) LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40 MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40 MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40 VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40 LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40 SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40 ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40 FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND... .AVIATION...SEVERAL TAF SITES RECORDING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT THE COAST FROM FORT PIERCE NORTH. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD JUMP AROUND FROM AS LOW AS LIFR TO VFR NEXT HOUR THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/MIST HAVING LIFTED/BURNED OFF. WILL WATCH OBS AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS. TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB PROMOTING INSTABILITY. EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S. FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC. PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS) AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/- 14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG. SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION... BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN. TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL TUE-WED. && .AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW STRONG STORMS. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS. FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT) LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40 MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40 MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40 VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40 LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40 SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40 ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40 FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND... CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS. TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB PROMOTING INSTABILITY. EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S. FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN ATLC. PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS) AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/- 14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG. SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION... BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN. TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL TUE-WED. && .AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW STRONG STORMS. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS. FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT) LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40 MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40 MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40 VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40 LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40 SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40 ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40 FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST PLUS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF THE H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SECTION. THE 16Z HRRR AND 12Z SPC WRF DISPLAYED SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART THROUGH THE EVENING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS INDICATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT EXPECT POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY IN THE DAY WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD A POP AROUND 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 12Z SPC WRF DISPLAYED AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART EARLY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND AN H5 RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN A NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR A POSSIBLE STALLED FRONT OR ON THE BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY...20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A FEED OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT TO PROMOTE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO WIND STAYING UP. UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SHIFT INTO OUR REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A NE WIND. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN EDGING CLOSE TO THE CSRA. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CSRA IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST SPC HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE SAVANNAH RIVER TOWARDS SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO POPS SINCE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMAINS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH FEW SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL...HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 9 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z UP TO 20 KNOTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT AGS/DNL. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
834 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 834 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE NE CO FROM THE WATCH. WILL REASSESS OTHER AREAS SOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 090 IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY...NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES THE MAIN SYSTEM. STORM MOTION ALONG THE LINE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE HOWEVER TRAINING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. CAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 20Z AT 1200 TO 2000 J/KG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH 0 TO 6KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONSIST OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 0 TO 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT TIMES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING A DRY SLOT MOVING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS NEW FEATURE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THOSE TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE LOWERED SOME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN COLORADO TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SINCE THIS SNOW SHOULD COME TWO SEPARATE NIGHTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW BETWEEN, THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF MELTING AND SETTLING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF WET AND MELTING SNOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NEBRASKA. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING NIL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 00Z AND LATER AND KMCK LATER THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A LULL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A NEW SURGE OF STORMS AFFECTING THE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 090 IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY...NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES THE MAIN SYSTEM. STORM MOTION ALONG THE LINE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE HOWEVER TRAINING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. CAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 20Z AT 1200 TO 2000 J/KG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH 0 TO 6KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. MUCH OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONSIST OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 0 TO 1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT TIMES PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST CONDUCIVE TO SNOW. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING A DRY SLOT MOVING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS NEW FEATURE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THOSE TIMES. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE LOWERED SOME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL STILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN COLORADO TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SINCE THIS SNOW SHOULD COME TWO SEPARATE NIGHTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW BETWEEN, THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF MELTING AND SETTLING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF WET AND MELTING SNOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT ANY HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE MID 50S FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NEBRASKA. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING NIL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS LINE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING KGLD AROUND 00Z AND LATER AND KMCK LATER THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A LULL SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A NEW SURGE OF STORMS AFFECTING THE SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPROVE ABOVE MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 The quiet weather pattern will continue through tonight with dry conditions and slightly above-normal temperatures. Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to track eastward across Oklahoma into Arkansas, with some low/mid clouds extending into far east central Kansas early this morning. Aside from this wave, the region will generally be under a weak mid-level ridge through tonight as a closed low moves into the Pacific Northwest today and will cause a deep trough to develop across the western U.S. tonight into Friday. Surface winds will remain out of the south/southeast today and tonight as the region stays wedged between high pressure to the east and low pressure across the Rockies and High Plains. With the exception of a few low clouds that may skim across portions of north central Kansas this morning, skies will be mostly sunny today with the southerly winds helping to push afternoon high temperatures into the low/mid 70s once again. These southerly winds will also continue to advect more moisture into the region, with dewpoint temperatures staying in the 40s today which will keep minimum relative humidity values in the mid 30 to low 40 percent range. Winds may become breezy at times this afternoon across north central Kansas with gusts of 20-25mph. Gusts may only diminish to 15-20mph in that region overnight, which will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than early this morning. In addition to these persistent southerly winds, some mid-level clouds may begin to move into central Kansas by Friday morning ahead of the approaching system. With these conditions in place, lows tonight should only drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 The latest model consensus with regards to the slow moving four corners upper low is for a little slower movement than previous model runs. The upper low will be between the ridge in the western U.S. and western Canadian provinces and the upper high pressure over the eastern states. The upper low is forecast to gradually move eastward and fill as it moves out into the plains next week. There is a good signal for precipitation late in the weekend through the first half of next week across central and eastern Kansas. With the slow progression deep moisture will stream northward from the Gulf into the Plains for much of the period. Initially most of the forcing and moisture will be over the Rockies and High Plains then gradually shift eastward with time. Therefore have gone dry on Friday then gradually introducing precipitation chances to areas of north central Kansas beginning Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday and Monday large scale forcing will increase across central and eastern Kansas with a energy ejects out into the Plains. Also by Monday low pressure will develop over central Kansas with a cold front extending south into Texas with a warm/stationary front near Interstate 70 with the low/inverted trough progressing eastward across eastern Kansas on Tuesday. Good moisture in place along with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg Monday and Tuesday afternoon with 0-6 KM shear around 25-30 kts may see a few strong storms, but mainly beneficial rainfall. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday as the system remains and weakens over the Plains. Temperatures mainly in the 70s through Sunday cooling off into the 60s for the first half of the week. Lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VFR conditions for the day today with some potential MVFR visbys toward morning as moisture continues to increase and may bring another round of haze/fog. Winds increase once again on Friday but late enough in the period to not yet include here. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hennecke LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1200 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under 500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon. Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 VFR through 06z Friday. Strong SE winds 20-30 kts through sunset, with higher gusts. SE winds will diminish a bit this evening, but remain quite elevated overnight near 18-20 kts. High confidence of MVFR/IFR cigs in stratus returning 06-12z Friday, with the highest impacts on aviation expected at DDC. LIFR cigs possible SE of DDC including P28. Patchy fog will redevelop after 06z as well, with areas of BR and reduced visibility. Lowest vis expected DDC and points SE. Consensus of short term models indicates MVFR cigs in stratus will persist until around 18z Friday. After 18z Friday, very strong SE winds will impact aviation operations with gusts near 40 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 74 53 74 55 / 0 10 20 60 GCK 77 53 74 53 / 10 20 40 70 EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 60 70 LBL 78 53 75 54 / 0 10 40 70 HYS 75 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50 P28 74 52 76 57 / 0 10 10 30 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner/White
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016 LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PATCHY CLEAR SKY WAS SEEN UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. JUST WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA CUMULUS CLOUDS/ISOLATED STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WIND CONVERGENCE LINE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WIND CONVERGENCE LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LATE TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL BE THICKEST. MOST MODELS HAVE THE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A FEW MILES...ALTHOUGH A FEW HAVE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER DOES NOT GIVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE LESS THAN A MILE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECLINING UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. DURING THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE NEAR THE STATE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE TIED TO THE DRY LINE...SINCE ANY LIFT ALONG THE DRY LINE QUICKLY DECLINES TO THE EAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016 FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY AS THE LOW DETERIORATES. WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH...COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER STILL SEEM LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FINALLY RECEDES TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS RETURNING AND THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. THE MAIN PERIOD OF FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HEAVIER RAIN RATES AND CONVECTION. PRIOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING PROBLEMS...IF ANY...COULD BE AGGRAVATED BY FURTHER PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER FORECAST ITEM TO MONITOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER OVER EAST COLORADO. REMAIN HIGHLY SUSPECT OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAINS. ATMOSPHERIC COOLING IS LIKELY AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST POSES A PROBLEM. AM ALSO UNSURE IF THE SURFACE COLD AIR WILL ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK QUITE WARM WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MELTING AS THE SNOW FALLS. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES POSE YET ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THAT SAID...CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY SNOW POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY...POSITION/MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AND THE LOCATION/EXTENT OF COLDER AIR MASS. WHERE THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN BUT RESIDENTS AND PARTNERS IN EAST COLORADO SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS IN CASE SNOW BECOMES A BIGGER STORY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016 FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH 8-11KTS AND A CLEAR SKY. FROM 10Z TO 15Z OR 16Z STILL EXPECTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD 13KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GUSTS OVER 30KTS LIKELY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 347 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under 500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon. Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016 We will be monitoring trends overnight as stratus expands across the entire area, or at least most of it in moist upslope flow at max radiational cooling timing. The models may be too aggressive in developing fairly widespread dense fog, whereas the GFS local model output stats keep visibility up, likely owing to these moderate surface winds ongoing at this time. A low confidence forecast tonight, with TAF amendments likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 53 74 55 / 0 10 30 50 GCK 75 53 74 53 / 10 20 50 60 EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 70 60 LBL 77 53 75 54 / 0 10 50 70 HYS 72 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50 P28 70 52 76 57 / 0 10 20 30 && .DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OB TIME. RATHER SATURATED COLUMN TO ABOUT 320 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.57 INCHES. PRECIP LOADED APPEARANCE WITH SKINNY CAPE ON 339K LIFT FROM SURFACE. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HEATING DOES GET A LIFT OF 342K BASED AT LCL 877MB. CHAP OUTPUT YIELDS A 57% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUST POTENTIAL 35 KT...PEA HAIL WITH A VIL OF 66. H50 TEMPERATURE OF -13C IS A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLUMN DOES DRY DOWNWARD FROM 300MB. RAIN POTENTIAL IS INDICATED TO BE IN THE 2.5-5.0 INCH RANGE. WIND PROFILE SHOWED SE FLOW BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW-W 15 TO 115 KT ABOVE. PEAK WIND 268/113KT AT 38.3KFT. TROPOPAUSE WAS AT 201MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -55.7C. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT 5.9 MB OR 21.5 MILES UP OVER JACKSON CO MS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 57 AND GAUTIER-VANCLEAVE RD...65 MILES DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. 24/RR && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ SHORT TERM... ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI. BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MEFFER AVIATION... SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT. MARINE... SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 60 50 20 BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20 ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20 MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20 GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 60 50 20 PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 60 50 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM... ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI. BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND 10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. && .LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MEFFER && .AVIATION... SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT. && .MARINE... SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 70 50 20 BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20 ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20 MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20 GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 70 50 20 PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 70 50 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO- LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST. LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80) INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PIEDMONT/INLAND AREAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT OVER SBY/RIC AND POSSIBLE PHF SO SHOULD SEE WINDS GO VERY LIGHT AT THESE LOCATIONS WHILE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT FOR ORF/ECG. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY ONCE THE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS BY AROUND 13Z. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM EDT FRIDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE) FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632- 638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ESS MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
914 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO- LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST. LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80) INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY, WITH NNE WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OVER COASTAL TERMINALS AND ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM EDT FRIDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE) FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632- 638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAM MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS. MON...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-20 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042- 047>049-054>057-064. && $$ UPDATE...BORGHOFF SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED. KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042- 047>049-054>057-064. && $$ UPDATE...BORGHOFF SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED. KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONSUS/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VERY QUIET PERIOD AHEAD. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN FORECAST. COULD GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOT WS CRITERIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THINKING AT THIS TIME IS IT WONT QUITE REACH CRITERIA. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS. SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS S BCMG NE 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 AM ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO WAS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALL MOVE EAST...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOW/FRONTS. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. WE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IN OR NEAR A THERMAL RIDGE. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO HELP ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA NORTH TO THE LAKE WINNIE AREA...AND SIXTIES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WE KEPT ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOW EASTERLY WINDS...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO GET SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WE EXPECT A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS...WITH UPPER FORTIES ON PARK POINT TO LOWER SIXTIES OVER THE HILL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN CHANCES. THE LOW WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS EAST ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER AS WILL LAKESIDE AREAS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. BEGINNING 00Z SATURDAY... EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE RECEIVING END OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS INDICATED BY SPC`S SREF MLCAPE FCST. SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM NW MN... BUT WILL SPREAD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA 18Z MONDAY AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE... THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE BALMY SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND COOLER BY THE LAKE (PARTICULARLY SATURDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 42 64 50 / 0 0 0 10 INL 60 45 67 51 / 40 40 10 60 BRD 75 48 70 54 / 0 0 10 30 HYR 66 43 68 51 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 65 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...MCLOVIN AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS HAS PRODUCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 20 MPH OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND EVEN MORE SO OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 40 FARTHER SOUTH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS...OR IF IT WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. OF COURSE...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES STILL ONLY IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL REACH THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE LAKE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 60 42 57 / 0 10 10 0 INL 35 63 45 67 / 0 30 40 0 BRD 39 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 37 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 29 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY. AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR 300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING PERIOD TO END THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND SWITCHING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS...PRIMARILY FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND TERMINALS EAST. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN- FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH: 1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY- OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS (IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED BASIS. 2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30 PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING: EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE): ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY 12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT- STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR HAND. TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET): IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID- AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC "ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST- UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL RANGE OF 51-54. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN. THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST. LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING. ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70 POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST. UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY...THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR...ONE RIGHT AWAY/ONGOING THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THIS HAS BEEN COVERED WITH A GENERIC "VICINITY SHOWER" (VCSH) MENTION. CEILING/VISIBILITY: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE IN FACT MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH THINGS AS BAD IF NOT WORSE THAN EXPECTED 6 HOURS AGO. FORTUNATELY...THESE VERY LOW CEILINGS AND VARIABLE VISIBILITY IN FOG ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ROUGHLY 3 HOURS OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING/SCOURING OUT BUT THIS TIMING WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE THE MORNING GRUNGE CLEARS...MOST OF THE DAY/NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR (POSSIBLY WORSE) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT INITIALLY THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD APPROACH/REACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THIS IS WELL-BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO EXAMINE AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE AS IT GETS CLOSER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN- FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH: 1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY- OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS (IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED BASIS. 2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30 PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING: EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE): ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY 12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT- STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR HAND. TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET): IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID- AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC "ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST- UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL RANGE OF 51-54. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN. THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST. LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING. ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70 POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST. UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY HIGH THAT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS/QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHAT MIGHT TRANSPIRE MAINLY IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS COULD EASILY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM MVFR TO LIFR (MORE DETAILS BELOW) IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH ANY POSSIBLE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD. CEILING/VISIBILITY: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MAINLY THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME WILL UNFOLD...AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGEST DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT (WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN STEADY SOUTH BREEZES) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR/LIFR CEILING. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CEILING SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A LOW CEILING TO THE TAFS FOR THIS MORNING BUT KEPT IT AT IFR LEVELS (AT LEAST FOR NOW) ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG. FORTUNATELY...ANY STRATUS/FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN ROUGHLY 4 HOURS AS IT MIXES OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THEREAFTER. STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF ADJUSTMENTS HERE... WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT EARLY THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD APPROACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL TO FORMALLY INCLUDE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1238AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS DEPICT MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FROM MODELS INDICATE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER...THUS KEPT THAT MENTION IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. OTHERWISE BLENDED CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RES FORECAST. ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 ANOTHER UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 0135 UTC AND A 9 MEMBER TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 22-00 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016 HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 AT MIDNIGHT CDT...A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS MOVING EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE MOVING EAST AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT OR 6 PM MDT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM CDT WEDNESDAY: A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...WAA FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
302 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN 70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273. MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND 850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL SD. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT. TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273. MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...CONNELLY SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND 850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL SD. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATEDWATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL PRECIP WILL EXIT. TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273. MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...CONNELLY SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
126 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO CENTER OF UPPER LOW. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. H-TRIPLE-R HAS ACTIVITY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MID STATE BY MIDNIGHT. BASICALLY KEPT TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THEY WILL GO DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE DUE TO FOG. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO CENTER OF UPPER LOW. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. UPPER LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MEAN MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW TSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY CKV/BNA. THIS MAY BRING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR LEVELS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LARGELY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION.........................01/BOYD SHORT/LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT REACHING IFR AT DRT AND LIFT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF ANY CONVECTION MOVES OVER A TERMINAL IT WILL LOWER VIS BY ONE CATEGORY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 77 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 69 76 68 / 10 40 30 80 80 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 74 65 73 64 / 10 40 40 80 80 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 81 66 81 65 / 20 30 50 60 50 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 67 74 66 / 10 30 40 80 80 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 69 77 67 / 10 40 40 80 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 68 74 66 / 10 30 30 80 80 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 70 75 69 / 10 30 30 80 80 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 77 68 76 68 / 10 40 40 80 70 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 69 77 69 / 10 30 30 80 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .AVIATION... STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE LIKELY ALLOWING LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/ SHORT TERM... MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT-SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS IT FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AOA 19Z THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN TEMPS BEING CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 70S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S. THE UA TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEMAND OUR ATTENTION WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR NWRN AZ AND HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF PER 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS STILL PROGGED TO DEEPEN A BIT WHILST TRANSLATING ESE TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM DRAWING NEAR...SFC LEE TROUGHING DEEPENED AS WELL RESULTING IN BREEZY SERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA /20-25 MPH SUSTAINED/ WHICH HAS AIDED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S. BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER IS USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S NOTED ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO...THUS MATERIALIZING THE DRYLINE. JUST HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE ARE WHAT MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUN ITERATIONS. THE RAP SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE THUS SUGGESTING IT ALSO HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW IT WILL EVOLVE...WHICH IS PUSHING THE DRYLINE ONTO THE FAR WRN ZONES AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE RETREATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AS SUCH...IT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHICH MODEL BEST REPRESENTS WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL ARISE IS THE PRESSING QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS COMMENCING AT NOON ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POINTS NWRD...WHICH MORE OR LESS HAS OCCURRED...BUT RADAR ECHOES WERE LIGHT AND THE ACTIVITY WAS ELEVATED /NO PRECIP REACHED THE GROUND/. THE HRRR...NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED CI ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH PLAINS AT 20Z/21Z...CLOSE TO THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE /WITH THE CAP ERODING BY THEN/. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS /WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE/. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE FEATURES...AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONSISTING OF A 70-80 KT 250 MB LEFT EXIT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SBC OF 1500-2500 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS...LCL/S DROP TO AOA 4000FT AGL WHILST HELICITY INCREASES AND HODOGRAPHS SHOW THAT CLASSIC VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE TORNADO RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY DECLINE BUT A CONTINUAL SFC SERLY FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AS WELL AS A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSEVERE. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND A 70 KT 250 MB JET STREAK PUSHES OUT ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS STORMS WILL RE-GENERATE. MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCES OF RENEWED PRECIP TO BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SURGES TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE COULD BE OVERDONE AND MAY NOT BE AS FAR EAST AS SUGGESTED...SO THE SOUTH PLAINS ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS JUST YET. DO AGREE HOWEVER THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP /60S AND 70S/. /29 LONG TERM... LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUTOFF VICINITY OF THE FOUR-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN THIS CYCLE IS FOR MORE APPARENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH THE DRY-LINE OFF TO THE EAST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WE HAD BEEN EXPECTING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LATCHED ON SHIFTING MOISTURE AXIS A BIT QUICKER EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE A DEEP CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO SEEMS LACKING OR IMMATURE AT BEST AT LEAST IMPACTING OUR SPECIFIC AREA. STILL...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND GIVE PERHAPS OUR BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE COORDINATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT APPEAR A LITTLE GENEROUS ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS HAVE DROPPED A BIT...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE MOST CURRENT LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO ALLOW ANOTHER LOOK OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. IT REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE TYPES OF LOWS FIT PAST ANALOGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FAVORING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALSO WILL STILL OFFER AT LEAST BRIEF SEVERE POTENTIAL THOUGH AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE QUICKLY USED UP. A WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATE ADEQUATE FOR CHANCE CATEGORY. UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPRESSED WITH COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. THUNDER CHANCES BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE OLD UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST AND HEIGHTS REBUILDING. SHOWER CHANCES SHOW A SLOW DECLINE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND NOT SHOWING MUCH TO LATCH ONTO YET. /05RMCQUEEN FIRE WEATHER... THE DRYLINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHARPENING UP NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS ERN NM VERSUS 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FA. A FEW SITES IN ERN NM HAVE TICKED OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH..THOUGH THE BOUNDARY STILL NEEDS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND 20-FOOT SOUTHEAST ARE INDEED BREEZY /20-25 MPH/...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AND EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...FILTERING IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 20-FOOT SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. HOWEVER CHANCES OF RAINFALL...CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL COULD AID TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. /29 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044. && $$ 01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAFS. && .AVIATION... GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT VCT AGAIN LATE TNGT WITH LIFR ALSO PSBL AT ALI. QUICK IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 13-14Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ DISCUSSION... FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BUT OVERALL THE PREV FCST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH A WARM AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/. AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN. THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30 VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30 ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40 KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TJ/70...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/. && .AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN. THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30 VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30 ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40 KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ RH/79...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016 .DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN. THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING 2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30 VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30 ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30 COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40 KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30 NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...VICTORIA. GM...NONE. && $$ RH/79...UPDATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
309 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TODAY THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM... LOW PRESSURE IS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING STEADILY AND PRESENTLY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE SEATTLE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OFFSHORE. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE OFFSHORE LOW CENTER WEAKENING WITH RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS IT WAS...LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN EFFECT TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TODAY. THE LOW WILL PIVOT QUICKLY EAST AS IT FILLS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY EARLY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A MORE TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO OLYMPIC PENINSULA. .LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ATOP EAST- CENTRAL WASHINGTON. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB AS WELL AND 70S TO 80S WILL RETURN FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AT +14 TO +16C AND SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS OF AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW. NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH. && .AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY AND SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A FILLING 999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...BECOMING STABLE TONIGHT. KSEA...A BAND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT AND BE GENERALLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...A FILLING 999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD EASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE WEST SWELL 10-15 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SCHNEIDER && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
918 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING SHOWERY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...A VERTICALLY STACKED AND FILLING 993 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 47N 132W THIS EVENING...OR WELL OFF THE SOUTH WA COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE FAR NRN ORE COAST ON THU MORNING...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON THU AFTN. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WA THIS EVNG...THEN SPREAD NE THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OR A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE CASCADES FROM SNOQUALMIE PASS ON NORTH ON THU MORNING. THE 02Z HRRR DUMPS NEARLY ONE INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT STEVENS PASS THU MORNING...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR JUST BELOW PASS LEVEL. WILL SOON DO A FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS THERE IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AFTER THE LOW CENTER PASSES EAST LATER THU...LARGER SCALE LIFT WILL END...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND SW INTERIOR. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE STRONGLY ON THU NGT AND FRI...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHALLOW AND WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ON FRI. THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SAT MORNING. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE FURTHER...AND THE ENTIRE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CRANK UP ON SAT NGT. THEREFORE...A SOLID CLEARING...DRYING AND WARMING TREND ON SAT AFTN. HANER .LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THAT HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MCDONNAL && .AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THERE IS A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COAST AND SOUTH PART WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. KSEA...THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME DRYING IS LIKELY LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 4-8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER && .MARINE...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FILLING 999 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OR NORTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING. GALES ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY WONT MATERIALIZE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR OTHER WATERS WILL ALSO COME DOWN TONIGHT. THE ONLY REMAINING HAZARDS BY THURSDAY WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 12-15 FOOT WEST SWELL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIVE SMALL CRAFT WEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND. SCHNEIDER && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET- EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .UPDATE...EXPANDING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAY BE OVERDOING DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS MORE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S RANGE WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING MID 40S TO AROUND 50. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE LOW 30S OVER LOWER MI TO THE MID 40S OVER THE OH VALLEY. WENT WITH A BLEND AND LOWERED DEWPTS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT READINGS AND LOW DEWPTS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...FEW CU ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS...LOWER WAVES AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...SEE ABOVE DISCUSSION FOR DEWPOINTS. IF DEWPOINTS TURN OUT LOWER ON SATURDAY...MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE...THEN MIN RH VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT. MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN CWA AND 20FT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE FORECAST FINE FUEL MOISTURE CODE /FFMC/ FOR SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90 TO 91.5 RANGE. HENCE IF AFTN RH LOWER THAN EXPECTED...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING. LLVL FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SE. SFC DEWPOINT PROGS LOOK TOO GENEROUS...INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY..SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH PRIOR FCST AND NAM MOS VALUES. BUFKIT SHOWS COLUMN VRY PARCHED. SO ANY MIXING WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT. ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONTO 925 TEMPS FROM TODAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. PREFER A COOLER LOOK BY THE LAKE HOWEVER WITH THE SUSTAINED ESE FLOW SO MOS LOOKS TOO WARM THERE...ESP GFS MOS. SUPERBLEND UNDERCUT THIS AND WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AT 500 MB PUSHES EAST A LITTLE BUT STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER LOW WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 700 MB RH IS DRY WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850 MB JUST BELOW THE STABLE LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAINLY INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOL. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES A LITTLE LATER MONDAY...BUT THE HIGHER RH REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER...AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM... MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID LEVEL UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH DIMINISHES AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND MAY EVENTUALLY REMOVE THE CHANCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. MEANWHILE A ZONAL JET ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS THE COLD AIR LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STAYS DRY. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY/STABLE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. MARINE...WAVES AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
921 PM MST FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 16/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. CLOSER TO HOME...RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST... MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND THE INHERITED POP FORECAST SHOWS THIS NOTION...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED. BOTH THE RED FLAG WARNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 68 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGS...WHICH WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK...BUT WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW RECENT TRENDS. FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z. SWLY SFC WIND DIMINISHING AFT AROUND 16/06Z TO 8 TO 12 KTS. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ESP N TO NE OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN NE OF KSAD AFT 16/06Z. WLY/NWLY SFC WIND INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...ESP NEAR THE NM BORDER INCLUDING KSAD/KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FT WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THEREAFTER...20-FT WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND AREA WIDE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COLDER PROTECTED SPOTS OF COCHISE COUNTY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. DRY NW FLOW MONDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 90S IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOW DESERT AREAS. MODELS HINTING AT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 352 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 ...Quiet Weather This Weekend...Unsettled Weather Pattern Next Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 No big changes in the forecast thinking with this morning`s update. Fairly quiet and nice weather will continue this weekend. A mixture of sun and mid level clouds can be expected with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s today and tomorrow. Will not rule out an isolated sprinkle around but most areas will remain dry and breezy. Southeasterly winds will be between 10 and 20 mph this weekend. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 The very slow moving upper level low pressure system starts to move out across the Central Plains region early next week. Most of next week looks unsettled but not a complete wash out either given day. We will expect scattered showers and isolated convection chances starting Monday through mid week. There will be a better chance for more coverage of showers and scattered storms late Wednesday into Thursday as the main system finally moves over the area. Overall total QPF or rainfall expected will be generally 1 to 2 inches. Due to the lack of recent rainfall...there will be no hydro or flooding concerns. At this time...no severe weather is expected with the only hazards being occasional lightning. The upper level system finally begins to move away from the area by Friday. Temperatures next week will be mild in the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Low level moisture will remain in place across the area tonight and should see some MVFR ceilings develop at both SGF/BBG which will linger through much of the day Saturday. Tigher surface pressure gradient will lead to steady southeast wind through the period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 352 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 ...Quiet Weather This Weekend...Unsettled Weather Pattern Next Week... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 No big changes in the forecast thinking with this morning`s update. Fairly quiet and nice weather will continue this weekend. A mixture of sun and mid level clouds can be expected with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s today and tomorrow. Will not rule out an isolated sprinkle around but most areas will remain dry and breezy. Southeasterly winds will be between 10 and 20 mph this weekend. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 The very slow moving upper level low pressure system starts to move out across the Central Plains region early next week. Most of next week looks unsettled but not a complete wash out either given day. We will expect scattered showers and isolated convection chances starting Monday through mid week. There will be a better chance for more coverage of showers and scattered storms late Wednesday into Thursday as the main system finally moves over the area. Overall total QPF or rainfall expected will be generally 1 to 2 inches. Due to the lack of recent rainfall...there will be no hydro or flooding concerns. At this time...no severe weather is expected with the only hazards being occasional lightning. The upper level system finally begins to move away from the area by Friday. Temperatures next week will be mild in the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016 Low level moisture will remain in place across the area tonight and should see some MVFR ceilings develop at both SGF/BBG which will linger through much of the day Saturday. Tigher surface pressure gradient will lead to steady southeast wind through the period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Lindenberg
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 337 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparible to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in ernest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016 With surface ridge holding to our east and weather system to our west, will remain in east to southeast flow through forecast period. Dry VFR conditions expected, though KCOU to remain on edge of strato cu deck through midday on Saturday, so have broken cigs at 6000 feet. Specifics for KSTL: With surface ridge holding to our east and weather system to our west, will remain in east to southeast flow through forecast period. Dry VFR conditions expected. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT 0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME. HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2 MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY. AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR 300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING PERIOD TO END THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF A KVTN THROUGH KLXN LINE. WINDS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BACK FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FRONT PASSAGE AT KVTN WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IFR BY AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM RAIN OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE TS/SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CROSSING. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY DROP FROM 6-7K FT FROM N CENTRAL TO NW AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE N MTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE W CENTRAL AND CHUSKA MTS. MT OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS/SHRA LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY E OF THE CONTDVD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVEL LIFTS ABOVE 8K FT. MORE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN IS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND W INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER NEAR 6500 FT ACROSS N CENTRAL AREAS AGAIN. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 52 31 55 33 / 60 30 40 30 DULCE........................... 49 25 52 29 / 70 30 70 50 CUBA............................ 46 27 50 30 / 60 50 60 40 GALLUP.......................... 47 26 53 26 / 60 30 30 30 EL MORRO........................ 45 24 50 25 / 70 30 40 40 GRANTS.......................... 49 26 52 27 / 60 30 40 40 QUEMADO......................... 52 27 53 31 / 60 30 30 20 GLENWOOD........................ 64 33 64 36 / 20 10 10 10 CHAMA........................... 44 20 45 25 / 80 50 80 60 LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 29 49 33 / 60 50 60 50 PECOS........................... 51 28 49 31 / 60 50 60 50 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 24 46 26 / 70 60 50 40 RED RIVER....................... 40 21 38 24 / 80 70 60 50 ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 22 41 25 / 70 70 60 50 TAOS............................ 47 25 48 27 / 60 50 50 30 MORA............................ 47 25 45 29 / 60 70 60 50 ESPANOLA........................ 55 29 55 29 / 40 40 40 30 SANTA FE........................ 50 28 51 31 / 50 50 50 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 30 53 33 / 40 30 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 35 55 37 / 40 30 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 38 58 40 / 30 30 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 34 59 35 / 30 20 40 30 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 34 59 35 / 40 20 40 30 LOS LUNAS....................... 59 38 61 39 / 30 20 30 30 RIO RANCHO...................... 56 36 58 38 / 40 30 40 30 SOCORRO......................... 60 37 63 40 / 30 20 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 30 51 33 / 50 40 50 50 TIJERAS......................... 52 32 54 35 / 40 40 50 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 27 54 31 / 30 30 40 40 CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 51 31 / 30 30 40 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 31 55 34 / 20 20 40 30 CARRIZOZO....................... 59 34 60 37 / 10 10 20 20 RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 54 34 / 10 10 30 20 CAPULIN......................... 46 28 45 28 / 70 60 40 30 RATON........................... 48 29 47 28 / 70 60 40 30 SPRINGER........................ 50 28 49 29 / 50 50 30 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 51 28 49 30 / 50 50 40 30 CLAYTON......................... 55 34 54 35 / 60 30 30 30 ROY............................. 56 32 53 33 / 40 30 30 30 CONCHAS......................... 63 36 61 36 / 30 30 30 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 64 36 61 37 / 20 30 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 69 38 63 38 / 30 20 20 30 CLOVIS.......................... 69 39 63 39 / 20 10 20 30 PORTALES........................ 70 40 64 40 / 10 10 20 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 71 39 64 40 / 10 10 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 74 43 69 44 / 5 5 10 20 PICACHO......................... 66 37 62 39 / 5 5 20 20 ELK............................. 59 34 58 36 / 5 5 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NM505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 SHORT TERM UPDATED WITH THE TIME LAGGED HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR POPS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. SMOOTH THE POPS WITH RADAR LOOPS AS GUIDE. COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SHALLOW COOL WEDGE OF AIR POOLING TO THE WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL DAKOTAS. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME SLEET POTENTIAL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP RAIN=SNOW FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS TO BE JUST A BRIEF PERIOD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 GIVEN THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE 18 UTC AND THE INCOMING 00 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN REGARDING HOW WELL WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON WARM GROUND AND ROADS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF SOUNDINGS AT DICKINSON AND MINOT FROM THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RAP ITERATIONS AVAILABLE AS OF 0230 UTC...SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST FOR A 6-8 HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A BLEND OF THE 21 UTC BIAS CORRECTED HIGH RESOLUTION SUITE AND 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AND WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW WET SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE WARM GROUND AND ROADWAYS. AT THIS TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...FOR BOWMAN AND HETTINGER...ARCHING THROUGH DICKINSON...KILLDEER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE WITHIN THE MODEL ITERATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 A WET AND INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...SNOW...AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH. FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOTHING SEVERE. THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FOR SOME CONVECTION TO GET GOING. THIS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY. A STRONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO +9C IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW RIDING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SOUTHWEST...AND PARTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT THREE HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW AT DICKINSON SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE FROST POINT EXCEEDING THE TEMPERATURE WITHIN A SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH RESPECT TO ICE. ALL THIS POINTS TO POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WPC AND RAPID CITY WFO...WE DECIDED ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SNOW LIKELY WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN...SHIFTING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN BORDER...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING THE WESTERN EDGE INTO DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXIST FOR FAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...MAINLY LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER BUT ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ATOP A LOW LEVEL 35KT 850MB JET WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A COUPLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW EMANATING FROM A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SEEN WITHIN THE EMBEDDED FLOW. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW WORKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A 700MB CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SATURDAY...AND MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE FIELD AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-18Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST AND NORTH..AND RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 THE ABOVE CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOISTURE POOLING INTO THIS AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS. THE LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF A WET PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS WILL ENVELOPE ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK SATURDAY MORNING THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KMOT. KISN WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND BUT MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LOW VIS IN SNOW. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-018-019- 021-032-033-040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT 04Z FROM JUST WEST OF ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO ABOUT MAYVILLE-HILLSBORO TO NEAR VALLEY CITY. IT CONTINUES ON A GOOD PACE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD GET THROUGH FARGO BUT EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR A WARROAD TO FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO THEN BACK INTO FAR SE CORNER OF ND SATURDAY MORNING. ISSUE IS RAIN AREA MOVING NORTH...IN THAT IT IS PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO QPF FCST. INCOMING 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DRY SLOT INTO MUCH OF THE RRV AND NW/WCNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MAIN HEAVY RAIN AREA SITS UP IN CNTRL AND WRN ND. HRRR SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF FARGO NORTHEAST TOWARD FOSSTON-BAGLEY. DID TWEEK GRIDDS FOR A BIT BETTER TEMP GRADIENT USING HRRR AND TWEEKED POPS/WX. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN UPCOMING RAIN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT SO A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ND AND ASSOCIATED SHRA ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM S CENTRAL ND ARCING NE TO THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES PUSH THIS BOUNDARY A BIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING ROUGHLY BISECTING THE FA FROM SW-NE BY MORNING. INITIALLY FA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN BUT PROPAGATE NNE AND RIDE ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF EXPECTED BOUNDARY. JUST WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL DETERMINE BEST LOCATION FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. WITH SHOWALTERS AROUND ZERO AND A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD T. WITH SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL SEE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN HINGING ON BOUNDARY SET UP. UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA ALSO SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT BEING PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING ON COLD SIDE OF TROUGH AND IMPULSES EJECTING NNE FROM UPPER LOW COULD SEE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. MODELS DID TREND A BIT WEST WITH PCPN SHIELD HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE WESTERN FA/DVL BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY SUNDAY AM COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 1-2 INCHES. PCPN LESS CERTAIN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA AND AGAIN WILL SEE A SHARP THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 EXPECTING PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH LOSES DEFINITION AND DRIER E-NW FLOW SETS UP AND SURFACE HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA DE-AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST OF GREENLAND RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND DEEPENS. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DISSIPATES. THE GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE MODELS. LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE AND WED. HIGH TEMPS THU WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO AND FRI TEMPS WEE INCREASED THREE OR FOUR DEGREES IN THE SOUTH AND DECREASED ZERO TO SIX DEGREES IN THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016 COMPLICATED TAF/AVIATION FCST. ALL DEPENDS ON FRONTAL LOCATION. GOING WITH IDEA OF FRONT SATURDAY MORNING STALLING OUT NR A WARROAD-FOSSTON TO JUST EAST OF FARGO. THAT WOULD BE ALL BUT BEMIDJI IN THE NORTH WIND AND IFR-MVFR CIGS. BEMIDJI WOULD STAY VFR. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...BEST BET FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DEVILS LAKE. LOOK FOR A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ESP DVL REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS OR MAYBE HIGHER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT FOR MORNING UPDATE... BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 301 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. KJB && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW 60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE A VERY NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH A LAKE BREEZE BUMPING SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. INSTEAD OF A COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY...A FEW VFR CUMULUS MAY ACTUALLY BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. MTF && .MARINE... 123 AM CDT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE. NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1001 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area. Updated zones/grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S. will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper 70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico. Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas north of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while 550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Scattered afternoon cloud cover around 6-7 kft expected, with otherwise clear or high thin cirrus sky conditions. Winds E-SE 5-12 kts through the period, with occasional higher gusts in the afternoon. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Onton LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Onton Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 717 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparible to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in ernest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 716 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Blocking pattern will remain in place through the weekend with a large high pressure area to the east and a strong low pressure area to the west. VFR condition will prevail with a southeast wind. Specifics for KSTL: VFR with a southeast wind. JPK && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NM WITH THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH BEST RADAR RETURNS LOCATED ACRPSS WRN KS AT 0850Z. MCV INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LARGE MCS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 2-3 HOURS AND NOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE OVERLAIN NICELY WITH RAP INDICATED STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. FURTHER NORTH...SFC FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED FROM NEAR VTN TO EAST OF IML...THOUGH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WRN NEB THOUGH HAS BECOME LESS FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND EARLIER CONVECTION HAS APPARENTLY WORKED OVER EARLIER INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED APPARENT MCV OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO MOVING INTO SWRN NEB INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER ERN CO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV HAS TAKEN OVER AT LEAST FOR THE TIME. HOWEVER...AS MAIN PV ANOMALY ROTATES NWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND TRANSPORT OF ECHOES SHOULD AGAIN BE DIRECTED AT SWRN NEB. BEST SFC BASED CAPE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSUMING A VAST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITED INSOLATION...ANY CONVECTIVE MAINTAINENCE ONCE PRECIP MAKES IT BACK INTO THE AREA WILL RELY ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AS WELL WITH A LONG FETCH THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. END RESULT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SVR STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE. CONCERNS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO RIVER RISES ACROSS SWRN NEB...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER SPECIFIC DISCUSSION ON THAT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HAVE LEFT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER TEMP PROFILES WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND COOLING NEAR THE SFC IT IS A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS HOWEVER WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A CUT OFF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO MEANDER ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SOME IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS QUICKLY ROTATING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM NORTH PLATTE EAST THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. MONDAY HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DID ADD SOME THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WITH SUCH AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TIMING THE ONSET AND EXIT OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING CAMS...HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SEVERAL WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE PRECIP. BEST MID LEVEL FORCING CURRENTLY RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS GOOD MID LEVEL FGEN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN KS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW ANCHORED FURTHER WEST...THE NWD MOVEMENT OF NEWLY DEVELOPED AND ORGANZIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL BE INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE RAINING CONSTANTLY. FCST MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SEWD SLOWLY TODAY AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO NWRLY OR NRLY AND INCREASE. CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO MAIN LINES WHICH WILL ROTATE UP TO THE N THEN NW BY MOST MODELS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE TAF LOCATIONS IN IFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN LIFR AT TIMES WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN IS OCCURRING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CONCERNS INCREASING FOR RIVER FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD RAINFALL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INDICATED BY MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS NCAR CAMS...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SAT AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING 2 MAIN LINES OF CONVECTION FROM SC KS INTO SWRN NEB...AND SWRN KS INTO NERN CO. IN PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN NERN CO THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE FRENCHMAN AND STNKING WATER CREEK BASINS SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AS OF NOW THESE RIVERS HAVEJUSTSTARTED TO SHOW AN INCREASE BUT ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. COORD WITH MBRFC EARLY THIS MORNING ON THIS IDEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO COORD THROUGH THE DAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE HYDROLOGY...STOPPKOTTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM. SOME -SN THIS MORNING AT KGUP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTN...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KROW WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT LIKELY. A BACK DOOR FRONT NOW OVER NE/EC NM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LONG STRETCH OF FINE SPRING WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AND STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND TAKING ON AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUNSHINE. TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE A FEW DEGREES C WARMER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 4-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY SO THE FORECAST WILL ESSENTIALLY BE AN ADJUSTED PERSISTENCE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL NY AND MID 60S NORTH COUNTRY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITHIN A MILE OR TWO OF THE LAKE. THAT SAME NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE INFLUENCE IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD ALSO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE HRRR APPEARING TO CAPTURE ITS PROGRESSION FAIRLY WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY THAT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST 925MB TEMPERATURES SEEN YET (+12/+13C) IN THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS. THUS SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND... WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL KEEP A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WIND. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE STRONGEST LAKE BREEZE PUSH INTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORELINE DOWN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ON MONDAY... A BREAK DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVES... AS A WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA... SUPPRESSING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOW 70S IN THE GENESEE VALLEY... WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... SPARKING OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. TROUGHING CARVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. A FEW DIURNAL & OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE TROUGH...OTHERWISE TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THIS STRETCH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH CROSSING THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER BACK IN HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY DIRT EASTWARD AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH EJECTING CUT-OFF LOWS... MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK... SO STAY TUNED TO HOW THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 15Z TAF AMD. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THIS FLOW A BIT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH TAFS REFLECTING THIS TIMING. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 12 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH WAVES UNDER 2 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH WEAKER SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXPECT TRUE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A DRY AND STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RH TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH DROPPING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FINE FUELS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT AND BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OCCURRING WITH AND BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...CHURCH AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
855 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... 1030 AM CDT FOR MORNING UPDATE... BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK ON THIS SPLENDID SPRING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE +16/17C AT 925 MB RESPECTIVELY...AND MODEL PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON REACHING +17/18C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY TAGGING 80. LOCAL 850/925 MB TEMP CLIMO SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT EARLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 50S. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN SOME FAIRLY FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT...SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 301 AM CDT THROUGH MONDAY... THE WEATHER IS ON REPEAT TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. SO...IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAYS WEATHER YOU WILL LOVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS IT WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME. OVERALL...A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LOCK THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY LAKE BREEZES...WITH MUCH COOLER (14 TO 16 DEGREES COOLER THEN INLAND AREAS) CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY WARMS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND...BUT ONLY NEAR 60 LAKESIDE. THE ONLY MINIMAL DIFFERENCE TO TODAY`S WEATHER OVER YESTERDAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT...ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON NOW APPEARS THAT IT COULD HOLD OFF REACHING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SO ASIDE FROM ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. KJB && .LONG TERM... 322 AM CDT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON MONDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LOW...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS (50S TO LOW 60S) ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAINING MILD FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THEREAFTER...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION...TOWARDS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS PROMISES TO BRING DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS EACH DAY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. KJB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... FINE AVIATION WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LAKE BREEZE ACROSS CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT...BACKING LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE FOR ORD/MDW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE COLUMN IS STILL RATHER DRY...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FAIR WEATHER VFR CU IN THE 5500-7500 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF CHICAGO. RATZER && .MARINE... 123 AM CDT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE FORECAST AS THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE COLD MOMENTUM PUSH BEHIND IT AND IS IN A WEAKENING STATE. NONETHELESS...THESE FRONTS IN SPRINGTIME TEND TO ACCELERATE DOWN THE COOLER WATERS AND FRICTIONLESS SURFACE OF THE LAKE. SO WHILE SLOWER...STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1204 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Upper level high over the Great Lakes continues to keep our area clear this morning. HRRR continues to hint at some scattered cumulus development in a couple hours mainly north of I-72, continuing through the peak heating period. Temperatures are already approaching 70 degrees in a few areas and have done some minor upward tweaks to the highs today, with some 80 degree readings possible, especially over the north half of the forecast area. Updated zones/grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A strong high pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest and eastern U.S. will provide for mostly clear skies today over central IL. Some high thin cloudiness may spread over western portions of the state at times...and some afternoon cumulus buildup should take place with peak afternoon heating. Temperatures should be near yesterday`s values with very little change in the pattern...peaking in the upper 70s across the area. Winds will be 6 to 12 mph from the southeast most of the day due to a gradient between high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. and low pressure centered over New Mexico. Gusts should be minimal until mid to late afternoon when mixing will be able to bring down occasional gusts of 15 to 20 mph in areas north of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A blocky pattern will continue across the region through Monday with upper level high pressure ridge anchored just east of IL while 550 dm 500 mb low pressure near northern AZ/NM border lifts northward toward the CO/WY border by Monday. This keep central/southeast IL in a dry pattern with a fair amount of sunshine, fairly light winds 6-12 mph and warm highs 75-80F and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A weak frontal boundary drops southward across central IL during Monday night and into southeast IL Tue. This brings small chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night western CWA with increasing moisture over the MS river valley, and over areas nw of I-70 on Tue. A bit cooler highs Tue in the low to mid 70s. Frontal boundary appears to lift back ne as a warm front Wed afternoon and Wed night with continue chances of showers and thunderstorms, highest pops western areas closer to cutoff upper level low moving into the central plains by Nebraska on Wed. Best chances of showers/thunderstorms appears to be Thu and Thu night as remnants of cutoff low moves into IL Thu night. Highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Wed/Thu with more cloud cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours. Some scattered cumulus has started to develop just northeast of KPIA, and HRRR shows some expansion across the TAF sites early this afternoon, but only scattered in nature. These will fade with sunset, leaving clear skies once again. Southeast winds will prevail during the period, close to 10 knots this afternoon and again toward late Sunday morning, settling down a bit at night. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Onton LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .Discussion... Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 The closed upper low near the Four Corners region will be the main story through the next 5 days as it ever-so-slowly drifts and meanders eastward. Tonight into much of Sunday will remain dry as the upper low influence remains just to the west. Low-level stratus may redevelop overnight, similar to this morning, but with the potential for slightly more cloud coverage. Daytime mixing should allow some of these ceilings to rise by late morning, with a few peaks of sunshine helping to raise temperatures into the 70s. Precipitation chances will steadily increase beginning late Sunday afternoon, and especially on Monday as upper level winds strengthen and a surface frontal boundary moves into the western sections of the forecast area. Overall instability will be somewhat meager, but supportive enough for a few embedded thunderstorms in a larger swath of showers. The frontal boundary is expected to remain across portions of the area through mid-week as the upper low moves eastward. As expected with a large cutoff low, there remains some uncertainty to the track of the system during the week. The general model consensus trends toward taking the low across the CWA or just north, and with the frontal boundary across the region, will continue precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. The overall severe weather threat remains low with this system for our area, but certainly expect to see some embedded thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, clouds will stay around for much of the week ahead until drier air moves in Thursday night. Dry weather will eventually return Friday into much of Saturday with temperatures beginning to warm into the middle to upper 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 Primary forecast challenge remains with ceilings. VFR expected with the exception of the next 1-2 hours while a few low MVFR cumulus remain in the area. Further afternoon mixing should increase ceiling heights to VFR. Wind speeds will relax by this evening with some thinning possible of low-level cumulus. Several models hint at bringing back MVFR stratus to terminals by 08Z and this seems reasonable based on forecast persistence. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ Discussion...Blair Aviation...Blair
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Looks like a persistence forecast will work tonight for the most part. Abundant lower clouds have persisted in many areas, especially over far southern MO where temperatures were still near 60 at 2-3 pm. In central/west central MO/se KS where clouds were thinner, temperatures were in the lower/middle 70s. Some additional thinning of clouds is expected this afternoon, but expect clouds to again redevelop tonight favoring southern MO versus other areas. Most guidance for afternoon high temps Sunday is at or above today`s readings, especially where it has stayed cool and cloudy today. We still should see some influence on temperatures early in the day from clouds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A big upper low near/over the Four Corner region will sit and spin for 2-3 days as shortwaves rotate around the parent anchoring low. One shortwave moving north through the Plains will push some showers/tstms into the western cwfa late Sunday night. The area of precip will diminish Mon night as the overall lift weakens as the shortwave moves north of the area. Some areas of our eastern cwfa may miss precip all together with this first wave. Another subtle impulse will move northeast through the region Tue and we will continue to carry rain chances after a bit of lull Mon night. Finally the main upper level system is expected to move into ne KS and northern MO Wed afternoon into early Thu. Vertical shear south and southeast of the upper low will increase and could serve to produce organized stronger convection if instability is available for updrafts, mainly Wed afternoon/evening. Still a wide range of fcst guidance possibilities and timing differences at this point and at best severe tstm chances still look relatively low. 12z global model runs have in general sped up the passage of the system a bit versus previous runs. It looks to be drier and warm to end this fcst period late Thu/Fri/Sat as the upper system and associated sfc trough/front pull away. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 MVFR ceilings persisting across the aerodromes should begin to mix out briefly to VFR after 21z. However...they are expected to begin building back in to MVFR after sunset. Will likely see IFR ceilings at KBBG between 10-13z. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning on Sunday. Winds will have occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon and remain steady at 10-15kts from the southeast through the forecast period. && .SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Gaede
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 240 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 Quiet wx conditions are expected tonight due to the continuing influence of a ridge of high pressure located over the eastern half of the CONUS. A warm start, persistent southeasterly flow, and increasing dew points today along with increasing mid/high clouds over the western half of the CWA later tonight should combine to produce overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, which is roughly 8-12 degrees above average for this time of year. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 An upper level blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to hold firm thru early Monday, keeping any influence at bay from a wrapped up and cutoff LOW over the eastern Rockies. This will maintain our warm and dry wx easily thru Sunday, and for most locations, thru Monday. Something along the lines of persistence for temp forecasts, perhaps a deg or two higher, will be strongly preferred thru Sunday night and for much of the forecast area, especially the MS river and east, for Monday. The reason that northeast and central MO may not get as warm on Monday is that a lead impulse will edge these areas towards the midday and afternoon hours and may be enough to hold together what will likely initially develop further west but should weaken as it moves into more stable air to the east. At the very least, these areas will see more clouds. The RIDGE aloft breaks down more effectively over our region on Tuesday with another impulse thrown our direction. All models are depicting a stronger signal for rain on this day as a result but there remains timing and locations differences, and with these types of cutoff systems, there is a general preference towards a slower timing, which would hold it off for most areas until Tuesday night. All areas should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday, and trended cooler on max temps...in the low-mid 70s. The LOW to our west appears to finally be on the move Wednesday and Thursday, and model solutions favor a track just to our north during this time. The decent rain threat will continue for this timeframe with what looks to be the best chances on Thursday with also a surface cold front sliding thru in addition to the upper support. Daytime max temps continue to be above average but not by much...in the low 70s. Depending on if the LOW finally leaves by Friday, a new RIDGE aloft looks to build in by then and continue into next weekend, and should signal a return of the wx we are seeing this weekend: warm and dry. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 56 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Quincy 54 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 55 78 54 74 / 5 10 5 40 Jefferson City 56 79 54 75 / 5 10 5 40 Salem 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5 Farmington 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A prominent omega block will take hold today from the CONUS into the western Atlantic with the MS Valley and OH/TN Valley dominated by the upper ridge portion of the block. This pattern will maintain a low level anticyclone across the eastern U.S. resulting in veering southeast-south lower tropospheric flow across the CWA. Deeper moisture should largely remain west of the CWA, although there will be flare-ups of diurnal cu west of the MS River, as supported today by the RAP solutions. Weather will be seasonably warm and tranquil with high temperatures today comparable to yesterday, and highs on Sunday a tad warmer than today. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 A pattern change begins to take place late Sunday night and really proceed in earnest Monday-Monday Night. Height falls and troffing from eastern Canada into the northeast quarter of the Nation will suppress the upper ridge. Initially this will allow flow aloft to become more southwesterly bringing mid-high level moisture into the area, while also bringing a backdoor cold front late Monday- Tuesday. Gradual eastward progression of the weakening western U.S. upper low/trof and a series of attendant surface boundaries will bringing increasing precipitation chances, peaking around Thursday. Temperatures through the extended time frame should remain above average. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2016 VFR through the period with southeasterly winds, scattered diurnal cu at times, and occasional cirrus. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 AS OF 20Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... HELPING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE... ONE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN BETWEEN... A SLOWLY MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA... PASSING THROUGH KBBW AROUND 18Z AND KONL AROUND 20Z. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND 40F IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES TO NEAR 60F BUT DROPPING FAST AT KONL. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY... AND REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... KEPT DEFINITE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 06Z AS THE PRECIP SHIELD STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH 500HPA WITH BOUTS OF FAIRLY STRONG LIFT... OMEGA VALUES AROUND -15US. SLOWLY PULLED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR... RAP... NAM... AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BRINGING THE DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WEAK CAA AT H85 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THE FROPA ACROSS THE EAST. AROUND SUNSET... RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE TEMP TO ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAINTAINED RASN THROUGH 06Z DUE TO A RELATIVE WARM LAYER AROUND 700HPA... WHICH IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NAM. OVERNIGHT... SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY... SO CONTINUED ALL SNOW MENTION. DESPITE RESPECTABLE QPF... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DGZ AT 500HPA... WHEREAS THE BEST MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BELOW THAT LEVEL. ALSO... LIFT IS STRONGEST AROUND 700HPA. COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F... WILL BE A VERY LOW SLR. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PINE RIDGE... BUT THINK MOST PLACES FROM OSHKOSH TO MERRIMAN AND NORTHWEST WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH. SUNDAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN A DROP OF MAX TEMPS AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA... KEEPING THE AREA IN NORTHERN FLOW... OVERCAST SKIES... AND H85 TEMPS FROM -3C TO 5C. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS NEAR THE FRONT... SO GENERALLY CONFINED ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83. NAM SOUNDINGS AT KBBW AND KONL ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP SATURATION AND STRONG LIFT... WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK/NEUTRAL LIFT IN THE PANHANDLE. COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH 18Z ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS TEMPS ARE SLOW TO CLIMB. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN THE PUSH OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE BLOCKING HIGH IS SO STRONG. THE QUESTION NOW BECOMES HOW EXPANSIVE WILL THE DRY SLOT BE THAT WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE MIDDLE OF THE GROUND WRAPPING THE DRY SLOT INTO S DAKOTA BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGH RES ARW/NMM ARE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE CANADIAN/EC ARE SLOWEST WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS STILL SHOWING HIGH POPS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS TRENDED DOWN THE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THE TREND TO GO DRIER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE IN LATER MODEL RUNS/FORECASTS. BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN LOW. MODELS DEVELOP SOME POS CAPE OF NEARLY 500 J/KG AND DROP LIFT INDEX VALUES INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. MODELS NOW FAVOR THE LOW TO BE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM UP OF TEMPS. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY WILL KEEP THEM ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MAY EVEN BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A WARM UP OF 60S BY MID WEEK WITH 70S LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...AND VISBY WILL BE REDUCED DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY AFFECT KLBF. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY FROM KMCK TO KANW AND WEST...WHILE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KONL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN TOTALS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SURPASSING 2 INCHES AND NEARING 3 INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES FOR A 48 HOUR TOTAL. SO FAR LITTLE RISES ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED...THANKS TO THE VERY DRY SOILS AND THE SLOW FALLING OF THE RAIN...WHICH PRODUCES LITTLE RUN OFF. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE AND EXPECT RIVERS TO START SEEING AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE RESPONSE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SO FAR MODELS ONLY INDICATING THAT THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE WILL BE THE ONLY SITE TO REACH ACTION STAGE WITH NO SITES LOOKING AT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AN RIVER STATEMENT...RVS...WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THIS TIME WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO CONTINUE BE LOCATED IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION AND THE SLOW DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE SANDY SOILS...LITTLE FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND START TO SEE RISES ON RIVERS AND CREEKS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY SHORT TERM...SNIVELY LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...SNIVELY HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE MESSY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. ONE MORE DAY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND ACROSS EC/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO POTENTIALLY 40 KT AT TCC/ROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER DURING THE EVE ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PUSH CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE NE THIRD WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVE HRS. CANT RULE OUT SOME TS IMPACTS ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT TOO STABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AEG/ABQ. WILL BE MONITORING THAT TREND. CURRENTLY HAVE TS IN FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES. PRECIP WONT TURN OFF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. THIS MEANS LOW CIG AND PERHAPS SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO NEAR SATURDAY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. 50 && .PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SAT APR 16 2016... .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER. && .DISCUSSION... DRYLINE MADE A SHORT LIVED COMEBACK TO THE PECOS VALLEY IN SE NM...BUT IS NOW STARTING TO MIX OUT AS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST AND WLY WINDS ADVANCE TOWARDS ERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL TODAY...WITH MIN RHS FALLING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. NLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE...RAP AND HRRR NOT SO KEEN ON SHUNTING THE SFC BOUNDARY NWD AS MODELS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DO 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE KEPT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CLAYTON ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH CROSSING MY FINGERS WINDS DON/T BECOME TOO DOWNSLOPEY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE WARMER GUIDANCE BEING CLOSER TO REALITY. ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THIS MORNING. NMDOT CAMERA IN TOWN INDICATES SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING WITHIN IT/S VIEW...AND AIRPORT OB HAS BEEN SNOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL MID MORNING DECIDED IT BETTER TO ADD THEM TO THE EXISTING ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE MIDDAY. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY...AND AN EAST WIND MAY PUSH INTO THE RGV SUNDAY. AFTER SNOW LEVELS RISE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTS BUT ALSO THE RATON PASS TO CAPULIN AREA AS THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NE STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SLOW TO EXIT BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER OVERALL AND HIGHS WILL START TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE WINDY THAN WET BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRYLINE RETREATED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO APPROXIMATELY TO SANTA ROSA....WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NM. LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY ALREADY BE MIXING BACK EASTWARD...WHILE THE FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM BEHIND IT. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DYNAMIC AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NW NM. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EC/NE NM WILL ALLOW W/SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY SLOT WILL NOSE INTO THE EC PLAINS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES TO FALL RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY. ALL THIS WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS QUAY...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 5...BUT OVERALL THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 108 THIS AFTN. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT THE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE THIS WEEK...THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT WOBBLES AROUND NW NM...COLORADO AND PERHAPS BACK INTO UTAH BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT LOW CENTERS...AND ONE WILL PIVOT AROUND AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. FINALLY THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP FOR WED/THURS. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE NM TODAY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LOW PROXIMITY COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND FAVOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT REALLY LET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TODAY...WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM UP INTO NM. TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR POCKETS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENT RATES TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...WITH POOR VENT RATES EXPECTED FOR MOST NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ505-510>515. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SPRING TEMPERATURES OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 855 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, TODAY`S FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND GETTING THE DEW POINTS AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE. I UTILIZED A COMBO THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND RAP AS A STARTING POINT, THEN ADJUSTED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE WILL ALLOW SFC MAXES TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING LIKE A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS NY/PA. WE ARE STICKING TO CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 405 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED JUST REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH LATEST SUPERBLEND. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN. A WEAK WAVE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY BRING THE AREA SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISC... AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY ZONES. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS LATE WEDNESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DOMINATES THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY...VFR. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...PCF/RRM AVIATION...ABS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF 2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WE WILL LET THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 6 PM CDT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BAND OF SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS LINGERING FROM BERTHOLD TOWARD WESTHOPE AS OF 2245 UTC...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS ALL STILL A CONTINUED END TO THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND FORCING ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE CONCURRENTLY RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING....BUT WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTHWEST ND /INCLUDING AT KISN/ WHERE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LIKELY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...BUT IT APPEARS RAIN MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18 UTC. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A VARIETY OF WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM IS STARTING TO GRADUALLY ERODE. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN LINE WITH LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ELIMINATED THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL END REMAINING AREAS AT 23Z AS EXPECT BY THAT TIME ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY REMAIN. FURTHER EAST WHERE RAIN CONTINUES EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIGHT INSTABILITY IS NOTED. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE POSITIONING THE HIGHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP THE GREATER CHANCES MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING IN...EXPECT AN EARLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW INTO RAIN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPIATION...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW FINALLY DECIDES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO START NEXT WEEKEND AS WAVES EJECT OFF A LOW PUSHING OVER THE WEST COAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA MAY BE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AERODROMES...BUT THE LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE KISN WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS A RISE BACK TO VFR MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL RAIN AT KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002- 003-010-011-019-021. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .AVIATION... A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS WELL. DAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ UPDATE... ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER 600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND 720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM. AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ AVIATION... 1612/1712 TAFS... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90 HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80 GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60 PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90 DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041- 044>046-050. TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 17/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 .UPDATE... ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MADE THE ADJUSTMENTS ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. LATEST RADARS INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW...MAINLY UNDER 600 J/KG. KOUN 12Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A STRONG CAP/WARM NOSE AROUND 720 MB WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEFORE 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. AFTER 4 PM...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER WEST TEXAS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM AMARILLO TO LUBBOCK IN THE 3 TO 5 PM TIME FRAME...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...BUT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW OR LINE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH DOUBT SEVERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD. LATEST RAP13 MUCAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST...IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT WEST OF AN ALTUS TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SPC DAY1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAINLY UNDER GOLF BALL SIZE DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE TORNADO RISK REMAIN LOW...BUT IS NOT ZERO....ESPECIALLY AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE 4 PM TO 10 PM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH COULD OCCUR AS WELL IF BOWS AND LINES COULD FORM. AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND REOCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ AVIATION... 1612/1712 TAFS... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY IMPACT HBR/LAW/SPS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/ DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SW KS. A FEW STORMS ARE NOW MAKING IT INTO OUR FA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN OK LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE REGION. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO OUR SW/W ZONES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LLJ INCREASES TOWARD SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT, AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW OK AND WESTERN N TX AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A MORE PROMINENT MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SW OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW OK COULD RECEIVE OVER 6 IN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OK SUNDAY MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AM, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN OK. IT`S STILL A BIT UNCLEAR WHERE THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SETUP, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY MON AM AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IMPACTS THE REGION BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AND A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD POPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR TUE AND WED A BIT WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING RETURNS OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 58 67 57 / 20 80 100 90 HOBART OK 70 58 66 52 / 50 100 70 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 60 70 57 / 40 100 100 80 GAGE OK 67 54 65 46 / 50 80 60 60 PONCA CITY OK 71 58 68 57 / 30 60 100 90 DURANT OK 75 63 69 62 / 20 20 80 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041- 044>046-050. TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ 17/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E. THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK A TAD HIGHER. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO. SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY. THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......KURIMSKI FIRE WEATHER...MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 WARM APRIL WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF SET-BACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT. A VERY BLOCKY SRN STREAM WAS S OF 55N...WITH A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING SE WL HELP CONSOLIDATE THE FLOW OVER ERN NOAM INTO AN UPR TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK. THE FLOW OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NOAM WL REMAIN SPLIT...THOUGH THE BLOCKING WL DIMINISH. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE THE SPLIT FLOW TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST...WITH A HUDSON BAY TROF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE OVER THE E. THIS IS A MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER WX PATTERN THAN THE ONE WHICH DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF APRIL. PCPN CHCS WL BE LIMITED...AND AMNTS WL LIKELY END UP BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WL START OUT 15-20F DEG ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP BACK NEAR TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK...THEN REBOUND TO MODESTLY ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STALLED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (COOLER IN EASTERN WI). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THIS AREA...EXCEPT IN THE HOT SPOTS OF WAUTOMA AND WAUPACA AND ALSO ACROSS WOOD COUNTY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT MAKING ONLY MINOR PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE CU FORMATION WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE. DID RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY CONSIDERING HOW WELL TEMPS ARE RESPONDING TO HEATING TODAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK A TAD HIGHER. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 THE UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BRIEFLY TURN NW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BRUSHES THE AREA. AT LOW-LEVELS...THAT WL SEND AN ANTICYCLONE SEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...AND DRIVE A FRESH POLAR AIR MASS SWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS OFFERED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IDEAS ON TIMING...AND THAT WL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WL IMPACT MAX TEMPS. TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GUIDANCE...AS SWD/SSWWD MOVG COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DON/T SLOW DOWN MUCH WHEN CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RGN IN THE SPRINGTIME. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WL HIGHLIGHT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE MARINE PORTION OF THE HWO. SUCH FRONTS TYPICALLY ARE POOR PRECIP PRODUCERS. KEPT VERY MODEST POPS ACRS THE N MONDAY...THOUGH PCPN MAY JUST BE ISOLD-SCT SHRA...WITH MANY AREAS MISSING THE RAIN COMPLETELY. THE FRONT WL STALL S OF THE AREA MON NGT/TUE...AS SLOW MOVG UPR LOW COMPRISING THE WRN LEG OF SRN STREAM BLOCK BEGINS TO EDGE TOWARD THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR FEEDING BACK INTO THE AREA FM CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE PASSING TO OUR E WL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR GETTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN IN THE AREA. KEPT SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR SRN/SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH OVERALL SITN IS STILL MARGINAL FOR PCPN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM UPR TROF THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FCST AREA WL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...SO PCPN AMNTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE LGT. NO SIG CHGS TO THE STANDARD EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SOUTHERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 TEMPERATURES WARMED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WAS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RISING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS. STILL THOUGH...SOME HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 20S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. HUMIDITIES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE IF THE DRY AIR ABOVE 750 CAN BE TAPPED INTO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO OUTRIGHT CRASH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORWARD...ANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAYS HIGHS...HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI AVIATION.......MPC FIRE WEATHER...MPC