Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/15/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER BACK
TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EXITED WELL OFF THE EAST THIS
EVENING...AND THE 00Z 500MB PLOT DATA SHOWED THE CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. A SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW...RESULTING IN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS THAT FORMED OVER THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 9 PM IR IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE STILL A BIT
ELEVATED AND WERE MOSTLY RUNNING IN THE 40S EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED COLD CORE SHORTWAVE HAS NOW EJECTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FEEDING INTO
THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDING INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN ARIZONA.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DEFORMATION...MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND MINOR INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEARING 500 J/KG) HAVE
SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WHILE STEERING FLOW AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS PROPAGATING INTO
PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY...VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL MIXING OF DRY
AIR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT MORE HOSTILE
TOWARDS MAINTAINING CONVECTION DIRECTED SOUTH DOWN THE I-17 CORRIDOR.
A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS EVOLUTION KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DAMPENED WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAY IN A 573-
579DM RANGE. FULL INSOLATION WILL CREATE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WHILE MODEL H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOWARDS 16-19C RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH RECENT
MODEL OUTPUT YIELDING BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PEAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES AMONG
ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUND WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MUCH LESS AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. ONE
MEASURE OF CONSISTENCY IS THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING.
THE LARGEST IMPACT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. OPERATIONAL GFS
WIND ANOMALIES ARE TOWARDS THE STRONGER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD
ENVELOPE (NEAR 40KT AT H8)...HOWEVER EVEN THE NAEFS AVERAGE V-WIND
H8-H7 ANOMALIES LIE TOWARDS THE SEASONALLY EXTREME THRESHOLD.
THUS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO START MENTIONING BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
WHILE TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO HAVE TRIMMED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TOWARDS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBSTANTIAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MEMBERS MORE RAPIDLY EJECTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS LINGER A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALBEIT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT
DISPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD THAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DRIER
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
DESERTS...ALLOWING FOR QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CU
THAT FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WE MAY
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED CU FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY
THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ON THE NRN AND ERN
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEXT
24 HOURS AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. VERY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 PM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 23-00Z. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER WINDSOR AND SANTA ROSA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION UNDERWAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...WEATHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A NICE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIRMASS
WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...INTERIOR POSS
LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW. A COOL DOWN WILL BE NOTICED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER
RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 PM PDT THURSDAY...COOL AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE DON`T EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY
UP THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THEY REMAIN A LITTLE BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
621 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.Update...
Interesting scenario shaping up over the next 24 hours. Water
vapor imagery shows a large upper level low spinning over
Oklahoma and moving slowly eastward. An upper ridge is actually
located to its north, and over the next 24 hours both of these
features are forecast to continue to move slowly eastward,
eventually forming something similar to a rex block. In the
meantime, deep moisture will continue to feed into the local area
with west to southwest mean layer flow in the mid to upper levels.
However, at the surface, high pressure across the northeast states
is nosing southwestward, providing east to northeast surface flow
across the area. This is providing an extra boundary to promote
lift and enhance the rainfall potential across the area.
The radar echoes this evening have actually been exhibiting some
warm rain type features with shallow convection and 50+ dbz values
occurring near and below the freezing level (low echo centroid).
As we head deeper into the evening hours and overnight, some of
our local hi-res guidance as well as some HRRR runs have shown the
potential for this slow moving, shallow convection to produce some
localized excessive rainfall amounts. Given the still relatively
saturated conditions across southeast Alabama and the eastern
Florida panhandle, the flash flood watch was issued earlier and
will continue into the overnight hours. Based on the latest radar
trends and dual-pol rainfall rates, the watch has been expanded
eastward some to include Tallahassee and Albany overnight.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] A large area of rain will continue to move
into the region overnight. Northeasterly surface winds will
continue into Thursday. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
overnight and into Thursday as well with areas of rain persisting.
&&
.Prev Discussion [352 PM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Large MCS is continuing to approach the western border of the
forecast area this afternoon. At the same time, high pressure nosing
down the lee of the Appalachians is pushing a backdoor cold front
into the northeastern portion of the forecast area. The upper
divergence associated with the MCS/shortwave is forecast to
overspread the forecast area overnight. With low-level convergence
likely to be enhanced in the vicinity of the backdoor front, there
remains the potential for a corridor of heavy rain overnight.
Several of the available hi-res models show the best potential for
heavy rain stretching from Tallahassee into SE Alabama. In this
area, could see a widespread 2 to 3 inches with isolated higher
amounts. Given the fairly we soils from recent rains and stronger
returns beginning to appear on radar, will go ahead with a Flash
Flood Watch for SE Alabama and portions of the eastern Panhandle.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
An upper level low will slowly move eastward from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley to the southeast Georgia coast by 12z
Saturday. Deep layer moisture, abundant short wave energy as well
as a surface front in close proximity will keep cloudy and wet
conditions through the period. The front will mostly lay west to
east across or just south of our coastal waters as the wedge of
high pressure extending down from the mid-Atlantic region becomes
firmly established. With the overrunning setup, a few elevated
thunderstorms are possible mainly near the Florida coast. Some of
the rain may be heavy at times and will monitor for the
possibility of extending the Flash Flood Watch further east.
Daytime temps will generally be cooler than normal with lower to
mid 60s north and around 70 to the lower 70s for all but Dixie
County (mid to upper 70s). Lows will mostly be in the 50s.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
A much drier pattern returns for the weekend and early next week
as deep layer ridging builds over the region. A cold front will
drop down from the north all the way to the Gulf coast on
Wednesday and bring with it a low end chance for rain. Max temps
will gradually warm to the lower 80s by Monday with lows mostly in
the in the mid 50s to around 60s.
.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds will gradually
increase to cautionary levels Thursday night and to advisory
levels by Friday night. Saturday night winds will increase to 20
to 25 knots with higher gusts and seas will build to 4 to 6 feet.
.Fire Weather...
Rain chances will be elevated through Friday. On Saturday, drier air
will move in and stay in place for several days. Daytime dispersion
values could stay below 20 today and tomorrow.
.Hydrology...
Currently the only river in flood stage is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown. It is forecast to drop below flood stage late this
afternoon. Rain chances are elevated through Friday. Rain totals
through Friday are expected to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range for the
most part with isolated higher amounts likely. Flooding issues are
not expected at this time but many rivers are still high from the
last big rain event and should be monitored closely.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 71 56 71 57 / 80 60 60 50 30
Panama City 65 69 58 70 58 / 80 70 60 40 30
Dothan 60 64 52 64 53 / 90 80 60 50 30
Albany 58 65 51 63 52 / 80 80 60 50 40
Valdosta 61 68 54 68 56 / 60 70 60 60 30
Cross City 64 75 60 77 61 / 70 50 40 50 30
Apalachicola 65 71 60 71 60 / 70 50 60 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Jefferson-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baker-Calhoun-
Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Worth.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1046 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT WHILE AN EXPANSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED TIGHT MOISTURE
GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH PWATS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
AROUND 1.3" WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ONLY AROUND 0.75". SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR SOUTHERN GA ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER
THE CONTINUALLY REINFORCED DRY AIRMASS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO ONGOING POP SCHEME...KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FARTHER NORTH.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE
NORTH WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION
SLIDES SE AND FILLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOES
NOT BUDGE KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIC. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOWING
HIGHEST 850-500 MB RH VALUES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD WHERE
WE HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS. POCKETS OF UPPER FORCING LACK FOCUS
AND WE EXPECT PERIODIC RAINS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC MOVING UP TOWARD THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION EAST TO CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES AND FROM SAVANNAH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ENTRANCE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DURING THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
WE CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS SE GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. REMNANT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE FULL HOLD WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR ALL AREAS. EXPECT LIGHTER NE WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID WEEK AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARMER READINGS MAY BE TEMPERED BY A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...EXPECT VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. FAIRLY DRY
AIR FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
KSAV...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE FOUND IN
THIS AREA...A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WE MAINTAINED VFR VSBYS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCASIONALLY DROP VSBYS TO 5 SM OR LOWER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LESS
SUPPORTIVE AND THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR CEILINGS AS OF LATE SO WE SHOW NO LOWER THAN MVFR. SIMILAR TO
KCHS...GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAV THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCHS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFF THE GA/FL COAST OVERNIGHT...THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST
WITHIN 20 NM. WITHOUT THE DATA FROM BUOY 41008 WHICH REMAINS OUT
OF SERVICE...IT IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS EXIST. AT PRESENT
THE GUSTS ARE PROBABLY JUST BELOW 34 KT BASED ON OBS FARTHER NORTH
AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES DATA. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT SO WE MAINTAINED THE GALES FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SLIGHTLY NOW THAT THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT HAS ENDED. FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE WHERE THE BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS. WE HAVE INCLUDED
THIS VERBIAGE IN THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
GALES COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS AND ADVISORIES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A BIT LONG DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT THERE COULD SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH/LONG DURING NE FETCH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS..MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
FROM MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY SOME
SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH
EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DEPARTURES AS GREAT AS 1.0-2.0 FT
MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
555 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
PART. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE EAST. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA TOWARD
SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL
ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS
TODAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING THICKENING CLOUDINESS MAINLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF AGS AND DNL. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE AREA. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS BELOW THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH PART. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGHTEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL
ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS
TODAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING THICKENING CLOUDINESS MAINLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF AGS AND DNL. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE AREA. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS BELOW THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH PART. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
THE GULF COAST REGION BY FRIDAY. WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEFINED COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE FLUX APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA DURING THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS. MOS POP CONSENSUS
INCREASING ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
REMAINS AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURE. BUT
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...SO RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WITH
FRIDAY THE COOLEST...WITH 50S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CSRA AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OF REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR ADVECTION
PLUS HEATING AND MIXING HAS RESULTING IN RISING CEILINGS. WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS MIXING THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN AND
MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GFS LAMP AND
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS POCATELLO ID
937 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...WE`VE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL INFORMATION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SOME IMPRESSIVE 1
AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS MORNING ALREADY SO WE ADDED BACK IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER WAVE LIFTING AHEAD
OF PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. HRRR PUSHES MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING...BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM
AND GFS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT TONIGHT...BUT RAMP UP MOISTURE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG QPF FIELD CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW IN COMPARISON WITH THE NAM. MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW. GFS SPLITS THE UPPER LOW SUCH THAT SOUTHEAST IDAHO GETS MORE
FAVORABLE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE THE
NAM PRODUCES LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE LOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO PREVENT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM CIRCULATING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND BEAR LAKE.
OTHERWISE...TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE NOT RAISED MUCH OWING TO EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. RS
AVIATION...THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH KSUN ABOUT
13Z AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
MODELS....THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ARCO DESERT
THROUGH THE DAY. BOTTOM LINE BREEZY UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AT KSUN AND KBYI
ABOUT 16Z...KIDA AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST AREA COULD BE ISLAND PARK AND POSSIBLY BEAR
LAKE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SPOKE
OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER WAVE LIFTING AHEAD
OF PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. HRRR PUSHES MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING...BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM
AND GFS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT TONIGHT...BUT RAMP UP MOISTURE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG QPF FIELD CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW IN COMPARISON WITH THE NAM. MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW. GFS SPLITS THE UPPER LOW SUCH THAT SOUTHEAST IDAHO GETS MORE
FAVORABLE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE THE
NAM PRODUCES LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE LOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO PREVENT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM CIRCULATING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND BEAR LAKE.
OTHERWISE...TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE NOT RAISED MUCH OWING TO EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. RS
&&
.AVIATION...THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH KSUN ABOUT
13Z AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
MODELS....THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ARCO DESERT
THROUGH THE DAY. BOTTOM LINE BREEZY UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AT KSUN AND KBYI
ABOUT 16Z...KIDA AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST AREA COULD BE ISLAND PARK AND POSSIBLY BEAR
LAKE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SPOKE
OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1227 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME SPLENDID WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SOME WARMING GETTING READY TO MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE
SPRINGLIKE IN THE DAYS TO COME.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS WAVE FOR
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WE WILL LESS
CLEAR BLUE SKY THEN SEEN ON TUESDAY. STILL THESE WILL BE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TOO MUCH.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. 850-925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM SOME 3-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITH MIXED SUNSHINE
SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING 6-8 F OR SO HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...MAYBE A 60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST (NEAR PERU). ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AT THE LAKE..AND EXPECT THERE TO BE A
LAKE BREEZE AGAIN WHICH LIMIT WARMING TO THE MORNING HOURS CLOSER
IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH SOME COOLING AS IT MOVES INLAND. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...THE WARMER START POINT SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
200 AM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LOCALIZED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LAKE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPAND EAST THURSDAY THAN EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN MORE WHILE BACKBUILDING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON ITS PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
IN A GENERALLY SUNNY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO TAG ON SEVERAL DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND LOW 70S SUNDAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. THE ONSHORE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT EVEN LAKE AREAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 50S.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF LATE...WHILE A PORTION
OF THE ENERGY WILL GET EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW IN CANADA. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND RETURN THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SENDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY...BUT THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND COVERAGE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THERE TO BE
A COOL DOWN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLING THAN THE EC/GEM. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME
LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS RAIN WITH THE
FRONT BUT TIMING, AMOUNT, AND EXTENT OF HOW FAR SOUTH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. WE THEN HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN
CONUS LOW TO SEE HOW MUCH OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS ONCE IT GETS
HERE...WHICH LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT QUITE AS
QUICKLY AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE LATEST TAF PERIOD...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PRESENTING THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLIPPING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED THOUGH IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED
ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PASSAGE THROUGH THE
CHICAGO AREA BY THE TIME 18Z TAFS GO INTO EFFECT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK BELOW 10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
225 AM...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC AND
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN NEXT MONDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another sunny morning across the forecast area, but some mid-level
clouds are accompanying a shortwave moving through Wisconsin and
eastern Iowa. Latest RAP humidity plots for the 850-700mb layer
show this largely staying to our north. Some high clouds with
convection over the lower Mississippi Valley may brush the far
southeast CWA this afternoon, but shouldn`t provide much of an
obstacle to the sunshine. Made some minor adjustments to the
temperatures, going with highs 60-65 everywhere. Updated
zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Beneath the ridge,
skies are mostly clear and winds are light across central Illinois
with current temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 30s.
Abundant sunshine and light E/NE winds will be the rule today as the
ridge remains firmly in place. Forecast soundings support mixing up
to around 860mb, which will result in afternoon highs in the upper
50s and lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another chilly night will be on tap tonight, as clear skies and
light winds allow low temperatures to bottom out in the middle to
upper 30s. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures
will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming
will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around
persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb
into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-
ointment will be an upper low currently over the Texas panhandle.
This feature is expected to drift slowly eastward over the next
couple of days and perhaps approach southeast Illinois by Thursday
night into Friday. 00z Apr 13 models are in good agreement that
this feature will stay south of Illinois, but will need to keep an
eye on it in case clouds and a few showers spread into the far SE
KILX CWA Thursday night. At this point, will maintain a dry
forecast.
After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the
upper ridge will break down. Models are still having trouble with
the evolution of the upper pattern next week, with the latest runs
of the GFS/GEM both showing a strong northern-stream short-wave
diving into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary southward
into central Illinois by Monday. ECMWF shows this wave as well, but
is a bit slower with the southward progress of the front. Meanwhile,
an upper low will remain well to the west across the Rockies/western
Plains until the middle of the week. How far south the cold
front drops and how quickly the upper low tracks eastward still
remain in question. Will include low chance PoPs for showers/thunder
Monday into Tuesday, with continued warm temperatures in the upper
60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours, with little in the
way of cloud cover. Winds near 10 knots this afternoon expected to
subside a bit this evening and become more east-southeast, before
increasing again to near 10 knots by late Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1200 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
JUST WEST OF THE SIOUXLAND AREA...IT HAS BECOME HARDER TO
CONTINUE CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER NRN IA INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WITH THE RAP ALSO SHOWING PRECIP. THUS HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVER NRN IA 06-10Z FOR A
START.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
RATHER QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON TAP. ONLY REAL CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT RAIN CLIPS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW NO PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH I SUSPECT WILL BE THE CASE IN NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING WITH DRY LAYER DEPTH AROUND 6 KFT AND BETTER LIFT FURTHER
NORTH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING. LOWS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE BOOSTED
A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST THIS EVENING IF WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A
COUPLE KTS OVER GUIDANCE AS THEY WERE THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPS AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MIGRATING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST JUMP IN TEMPS
SHOULD BE FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND HIGHS WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HIGHS WILL WARM JUST A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEGINNING SATURDAY A LARGE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INCH INTO THE ROCKIES BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD
TOUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THE FRINGE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN IOWA AND LOCATIONS WEST BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS DIFFER AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE HIGH STRONGLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WHILE THE EURO
SHOVES THE HIGH FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO WORK IT`S WAY
MORE INTO IOWA. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW HOWEVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES.
FOR MONDAY THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
THIS WILL ACT TO EITHER MOVE OR FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK BETTER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAKOTAS/MN
SYSTEM MAY JUST CLIP NRN IA TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE FOR INCLUSION AS
OF YET. SURFACE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE...REMAINING SLY...BUT A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH NEAR KMCW AS
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF SD LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THIS
LED TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TN BORDER SO MORE OR LESS
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE INSTEAD OF SUNNY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NORTH AND EAST GENERALLY
DRIEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LOW WILL BE SKIRTING BY
TO OUR SOUTH UNDERNEATH A DOMINATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SET UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS CLOSED LOW THEN
STARTS TO OPEN UP INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE
NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS MAY HELP TO PULL ENERGY FROM
THE WESTERN LOW INTO THE STATE TUESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL SHOWCASE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
CU IN THE VFR RANGE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION MAY AFFECT KSME
AND KLOZ DURING THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME MID OR
HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT SME AND LOZ THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ052-104-106-
107-109-110-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JVM/CG
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THIS
LED TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TN BORDER SO MORE OR LESS
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE INSTEAD OF SUNNY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NORTH AND EAST GENERALLY
DRIEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVOLVING MINI-REX
BLOCK OVER THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT MID LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS RIDGING EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ENOUGH TO
WIPE OUT THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
MIDST OF A BUBBLE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
WEAKNESS MANIFESTED BY LINGERING ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE HEART OF
THE RIDGE. IN TIME...RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE PLACEMENT FOR THIS WESTERN
LOW IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY THE WEAKER COMPONENT. THIS LOW THEN STARTS TO OPEN UP
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS
MAY HELP TO LURE WESTERN ENERGY INTO THE STATE MORE DEFINITIVELY
FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A
GENERALLY BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. EARLY ON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW FADES OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO JUST ACCOUNT FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
CU IN THE VFR RANGE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION MAY AFFECT KSME
AND KLOZ DURING THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME MID OR
HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT SME AND LOZ THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
945 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVOLVING MINI-REX
BLOCK OVER THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT MID LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS RIDGING EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ENOUGH TO
WIPE OUT THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
MIDST OF A BUBBLE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
WEAKNESS MANIFESTED BY LINGERING ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE HEART OF
THE RIDGE. IN TIME...RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE PLACEMENT FOR THIS WESTERN
LOW IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY THE WEAKER COMPONENT. THIS LOW THEN STARTS TO OPEN UP
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS
MAY HELP TO LURE WESTERN ENERGY INTO THE STATE MORE DEFINITIVELY
FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A
GENERALLY BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. EARLY ON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW FADES OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO JUST ACCOUNT FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HOWEVER...NE WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR 180 DEGREE
WIND SHIFT FROM ERLY TO WRLY IS EXPECTED AROUND 2K TO 4K FT AGL
THIS MORNING...BUT MAGNITUDE SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SCT CU AT AROUND 3 OR 5K FEET AGL MAY ALSO BE SEEN NEAR THE TN
BORDER DURING THE DAY...MAINLY AFFECTING KSME AND KLOZ...DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM OUR SE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
WITH THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALY THAT HAS DOMINATED APR
SO FAR BREAKING DOWN...THE ERN N AMERICA TROF THAT HAS LED TO AN
UNUSUALLY COLD/SNOWY BEGINNING TO APR FOR UPPER MI IS LIFTING
OUT/WEAKENING. FOR THE FIRST 12 DAYS OF APR...THE AVG TEMP IS
RUNNING AN IMPRESSIVE 12.3F BLO NORMAL HERE AT NWS MQT WITH SNOWFALL
32.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. LIFTING OUT OF THE ERN TROF WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY THE DEMISE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER GREENLAND (3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY). IN FACT...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI...AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REACH 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE REDEVELOPMENT OF MODEST TROFFING
IN ERN CANADA...LIKELY ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC SHOTS OF COOLER AIR OUT
TO 2 WEEKS. LAST FEW NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN A LARGE AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER FAR WRN CANADA AND MOST OF
THE CONUS AND AN AREA OF NEAR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED IN
CNTRL/ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SO...A GENERAL WRN CANADA
RIDGE/ERN CANADA TROF CONFIGURATION.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE LONG ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TRACK THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING BACK TOWARD WRN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REDEVELOPMENT OF MODEST ERN CANADA TROFFING WILL SPELL
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE AREA...BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL. IN
TYPICAL SPRING-TIME FASHION...COOLING WILL BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR PCPN...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD IS SHAPING UP
DURING THE LONG TERM AND OUT THRU AT LEAST 10 DAYS AS WELL. FOR A
NUMBER OF DAYS...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PCPN
FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
RECENT DAYS...THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD LIFT NE
AND BRING A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE
RECENTLY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA THAT
REDEVELOPMENT OF WRN CANADA RIDGING/ERN CANADA TROFFING EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SUPPRESS ANY REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW FROM AFFECTING
UPPER MI. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES BEING TIED ONLY TO A
COLD FROPA SOMETIME SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU
NRN ONTARIO. WITH THE UPCOMING WARM WEATHER...SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS. FORTUNATELY...NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THE SNOWMELT.
A NICE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THU THRU SAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND ON THU...FRI AND SAT SHOULD
FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY COLUMN. 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z THU
WILL RANGE FROM 0C E TO 5C W. BY 12Z FRI...850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 5C E TO 9C W. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON THU AND
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 70F AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE W. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRI. ALL 3
DAYS...HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE W. OBVIOUSLY...WHERE THE WIND
HAS A COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER. WITH S TO SE GRADIENT WINDS...THAT COOLING WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LAKE MI AND ON THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS MOVING TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT SUN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LACKING...SO INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT WITH PARCELS
NOT ABLE TO GET PASSED A MORE STABLE LAYER ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL
CANADIAN MODELS. BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA MAINLY
SUN NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WORK TO GENERATE PCPN. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL AGREE ON THIS POINT.
SOMEWHAT OF A FASTER TREND IS NOTED WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...SO
PCPN CHC MAY MATERIALIZE ON SUN RATHER THAN SUN NIGHT IF NEXT SET OF
MODEL RUNS BACK UP THE FASTER TREND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MON...AND
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER (AT LEAST 10-15F LOWER THAN SUN) AS HIGH PRES
BUILDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN A GRADIENT
NRLY WIND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE
WITH TEMPS MODERATING A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
THE SW HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AND
CMX MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW
TIL LATE WED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND S TO SE FLOW.
CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1226 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
THE SW HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AND
CMX MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW
TIL LATE WED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND S TO SE FLOW.
CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WEAK SFC LOW CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING OUT BY CANBY...WITH A
FAIRLY WELL PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO THE SOUTHERN
TWIN CITIES METRO AND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE IN WI. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...WHILE CENTRAL MN IS STILL DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TAIL EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 40-50KT LLJ DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND WITHIN THIS LLJ WE HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
HAVE REMAINED UP IN THE BALL PARK OF 20 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH MEANS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS FAILED TO REACH
THE GROUND.
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST OVER MN...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES CLEARING SKIES OUT
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH A LITTLE...
CLEARING THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE. LOOKING DOWN IN THE WARM
SECTOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS A LARGE POOL OF AIR ACROSS NE
NEB INTO FAR SW MN THAT HAS REMAINED IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN NE INTO SW/SC MN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING A BIT RECENTLY AND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...DID BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF I-
94...CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS. FOR DEWPOINTS...THEY ARE
MAINLY IN THE 20S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE SEEN ON LAST NIGHTS KMPX
SOUNDING CHANGING VERY LITTLE TODAY...SO UNDERCUT DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON CONSIDERABLY...TRENDING DEWPOINT FORECASTS TOWARD THE
RAP. THIS RESULTED AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN. BESIDE
SPELLING THE END OF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THE WEEKEND...THE WEAKENING
OF THE LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN MIXED LAYER WINDS DECREASING AS
WELL...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW THE 20 MPH NEEDED FOR
A RED FLAG WARNING. STILL WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO GET
DOWN AROUND 25% WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS UP IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE...WILL INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FWF AND A MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY.
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NRN MN...WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SPELL A VERY MILD
EVENING...WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 50 WHERE WE SEE HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING 10 TO
ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A DRY AND MILD PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. FAR WESTERN MN WILL MAKE A RUN AT 80
DEGREES...WHILE WESTERN WI SHOULD REMAIN A BIT COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND MAKE FOR A COUPLE BREEZY DAYS
THU-FRI...HOWEVER...UNLIKE MANY PREVIOUS DAYS THIS MONTH...WE WILL
NOT BE DEALING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S OR 30S. THOSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY OVERALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THAT UPPER LOW
SPINNING AWAY DOWN THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA...HOWEVER...TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS QUITE MINOR LOCALLY -
PERHAPS NOTHING AT ALL. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
AFTER THE 70S THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
ONLY CONCERN TODAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
SPLAYED OUT ALONG ROUGHLY A RWF/MSP/EAU LINE. THIS BOUNDARY AND
EVEN A HINT OF A WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR RWF MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF MSP/EAU.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A HRRR IDEA FOR WIND DIRECTION AT MSP/EAU...WITH
DIRECTIONS HERE GETTING MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A VFR TAF THAT WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH MSP RIGHT NOW.
AS A RESULT...FAVORED WIND DIRECTION TOWARD THE NAM/HRRR...WITH
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING BECOME SOUTH...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTING A
LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH AS WELL. NO OTHER CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10-20G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0245 UTC AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 09-10 UTC AS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.10 INCHES.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARCHING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONG...AROUND 50 KTS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS...A LOW END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS COUPLES
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. PROGRESSING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MODESTLY
INCREASES AS INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY PERFORMING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA THEN EXPANDS INTO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK AREA AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHERE THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA CENTERED AROUND 00 UTC IF WE DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS HIGH. THEN FROM 00 UTC THROUGH 06 UTC STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL.
RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR. BUT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
AS CONVECTION LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAPE...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AFTER THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH TRACKS TO NEAR
BISMARCK BY AROUND 15 UTC FRIDAY. AFTER 15 UTC FRIDAY THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY...INTO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. THUS AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE COULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF BISMARCK INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO CROSBY AND WILLISTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THOUGH AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY...THEN A TOUGH CALL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TWO SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEYOND SATURDAY...EITHER IT
REMAINS WET AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY PER GFS...OR PER ECMWF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN A DRYING AND
MODERATING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FORMATION OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SITUATED OVER A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TUCKED AWAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS 500MB HEIGHT FIELD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MEANDERS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A WEAKER UPPER HIGH. A DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A POOLED MOISTURE FIELD AND RESULTANT SHOWERS. THE FAR
NORTH LOOKS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE REX BLOCK FORMATION AND
SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT
IS A DRY PATTERN AS THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A SLOW
MODERATING TREND COMMENCES DURING THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GRIDDED DATA MORE OR LESS TAKES A
BLEND OF THE WET GFS AND DRY ECMWF AND ARRIVES AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHUNTS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...THEN 50S SUNDAY...RISING TO THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE POCKETS OF LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD...FROM WEST TO EAST...ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS COUPLES
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. PROGRESSING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MODESTLY
INCREASES AS INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY PERFORMING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA THEN EXPANDS INTO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK AREA AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHERE THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA CENTERED AROUND 00 UTC IF WE DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS HIGH. THEN FROM 00 UTC THROUGH 06 UTC STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL.
RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR. BUT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
AS CONVECTION LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAPE...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AFTER THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH TRACKS TO NEAR
BISMARCK BY AROUND 15 UTC FRIDAY. AFTER 15 UTC FRIDAY THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY...INTO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. THUS AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE COULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF BISMARCK INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO CROSBY AND WILLISTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THOUGH AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY...THEN A TOUGH CALL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TWO SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEYOND SATURDAY...EITHER IT
REMAINS WET AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY PER GFS...OR PER ECMWF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN A DRYING AND
MODERATING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FORMATION OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SITUATED OVER A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TUCKED AWAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS 500MB HEIGHT FIELD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MEANDERS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A WEAKER UPPER HIGH. A DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A POOLED MOISTURE FIELD AND RESULTANT SHOWERS. THE FAR
NORTH LOOKS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE REX BLOCK FORMATION AND
SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT
IS A DRY PATTERN AS THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A SLOW
MODERATING TREND COMMENCES DURING THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GRIDDED DATA MORE OR LESS TAKES A
BLEND OF THE WET GFS AND DRY ECMWF AND ARRIVES AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHUNTS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...THEN 50S SUNDAY...RISING TO THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE POCKETS OF LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD...FROM WEST TO EAST...ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT
KJMS/KDIK...WHILE CEILINGS AT KISN/KMOT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC
AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING
SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS
THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH
FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING
HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY
DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL
THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL
AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED
BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE
WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY. THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CIGS SHOULD NOT GET ANY LOWER THAN 3500FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL
CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER FAR EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH. SATELLITE INDICATES MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEARING
THE ND BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST CROSSING THE BORDER IN
THE NORTHEAST. AS FAR AS THE RED FLAG WARNING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LET IT RIDE. DO THINK WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
INDICATED IN LATEST CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST. WILL STICK WITH OUR FORECAST
HIGHS AT THIS TIME AS THESE MODELS QUITE OFTEN UNDER PERFORM WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING.
AS FOR POPS...UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS FROM 21
UTC THROUGH 03 UTC AND THEN A BLEND OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 06 UTC. THIS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING
THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEVILS LATE BASIN IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS.
VARIOUS HRRR POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THUS IF WE REALIZE OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OUR RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AND
UPDATE THE HAZARD SHORTLY.
LATEST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR BRING CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 21 UTC AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
SPREADING CONVECTION TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
06 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY. THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CIGS SHOULD NOT GET ANY LOWER THAN 3500FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEVILS LATE BASIN IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS.
VARIOUS HRRR POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THUS IF WE REALIZE OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OUR RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AND
UPDATE THE HAZARD SHORTLY.
LATEST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR BRING CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 21 UTC AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
SPREADING CONVECTION TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
06 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INCLUDE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 27KTS FROM KISN-KDIK-KBIS.
AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INCLUDE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS 27KTS FROM KISN-KDIK-KBIS.
AT 6 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
AT 4 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS KDIK-KMOT-KISN AFTER 18Z. VFR
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A MESSY CLOUD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK/N TX. MULTIPLE SCT/BKN LAYERS WILL RESULT IN
FREQUENT SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN CEILING HEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH THE
GENERAL TREND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOWLY TOWARD IMPROVEMENT.
LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST EITHER BR/FG OR LOW CEILINGS...OR BOTH...OVERNIGHT AT
ALMOST ALL SITES. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 1/2 MI AT SOME
SITES...BUT THERE IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
FORECAST TO INCLUDE IT IN ANY TAFS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN WITHIN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED FROM NEAR HOBART TO WATONGA. THUS...ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-44 WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE LIMITED HEATING SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS...HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. STILL...ANY SUNSHINE
COULD QUICKLY WARM THE AIR UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA FROM RAIN
TODAY...THINK FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF WHICH...COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THUS...ADDED MENTION
TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 48 73 52 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 49 74 53 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 49 76 53 / 40 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 51 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED FROM NEAR HOBART TO WATONGA. THUS...ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-44 WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE LIMITED HEATING SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS...HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. STILL...ANY SUNSHINE
COULD QUICKLY WARM THE AIR UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA FROM RAIN
TODAY...THINK FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF WHICH...COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THUS...ADDED MENTION
TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 48 73 52 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 49 74 53 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 49 76 53 / 20 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 51 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 48 73 52 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 49 74 53 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 49 76 53 / 40 10 0 0
GAGE OK 72 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 67 51 74 53 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW
POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP
EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD
SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE
DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND
1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL
BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE
VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL
STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ONE ROUND OF DISSIPATING SHOWERS IS WORKING
THROUGH THE KMBG REGION...WITH A SECOND DECENT BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH AT LEAST THE KPIR TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT...PROBABLY THE
KMBG TERMINAL AS WELL. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ONGOING TONIGHT WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SO...CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE KABR
TERMINAL BY FRIDAY MORNING. KATY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF VALID PERIOD. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED
FOR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 88D PICKING UP A FEW
ECHOES OVER THE DELTA SW OF MEMPHIS BUT PRECIP IS PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND YET. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA THE CURRENT LOW
POP FORECAST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND EAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS FINE. WILL TRIM TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTH MS GIVEN CLOUDS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TUP THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AFTER 14/12Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1125 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 88D PICKING UP A FEW
ECHOES OVER THE DELTA SW OF MEMPHIS BUT PRECIP IS PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND YET. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA THE CURRENT LOW
POP FORECAST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND EAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS FINE. WILL TRIM TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTH MS GIVEN CLOUDS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. CEILINGS HAD TUPELO WILL
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR ALL SITES LATER ON TODAY...YET NOT CONFIDENT TO PLACE
INTO FORECAST. TLSJR
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. CEILINGS HAD TUPELO WILL
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR ALL SITES LATER ON TODAY...YET NOT CONFIDENT TO PLACE
INTO FORECAST. TLSJR
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE. SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE AND HAVE USED COOLER RUC NUMBERS FOR
TODAY. POPS AND RAINFALL ADJUSTMENTS FROM EARLIER STILL LOOK GOOD.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 725 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
INTERESTING NIGHT ON THE AVIATION DESK...AS LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS NOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS...AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN PLACE IN WACO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
NEAR THE BOWIE CORNERPOST...BUT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR DRIZZLE AT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND SHORT TERM
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY NECESSARY UPDATES.
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF NOTE SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN OKLAHOMA SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WE WILL
SEE CEILINGS BEGIN TO INCREASE...AT LEAST UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS COME BACK.
FOX
&&
.UPDATE...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE THROUGH IS TRACKING EAST THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE A DUE EAST TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK THROUGH THE DAY. H5 TEMPS -17 TO -19 C SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MAINTAIN MID LVL LASPE RATES
6-7 DEG C/KM ACROSS THESE AREAS. FORCING FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE
LESS.
THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE ON REGIONAL RADAR...ANY SMALL ELEVATED
REFLECTIVITY VALUES 25-40 DBZ HAVE SHOWN TO BE EFFICIENT WITH
HEAVIER RAIN RATES WITH SATURATION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
INVERSION AND BELOW THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HAVE SEEN JUST UNDER
1/4 OF AN INCH IN 10-15 MINS RESULTING IN BRIEF STREET-FLOODING.
THAT SAID...MEAN MOTION TO THE NNE IS FAST AND THUS NO HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR ANY DURATION TO CAUSE
SERIOUS SHORT-FUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH
NEAR THE COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SUBSIDENCE FROM AN EARLIER
QLCS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. FINALLY...CLOUDY SKIES AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
IN BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR
IN THE LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE INTERCEPTED THE
MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS
STILL LED TO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. OUR CWA
WILL REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW-END INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
MODELS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL STICK WITH 20S
AND 30S FOR POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST.
A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE PARKING ITSELF OVER
THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE ABRUPT HALT IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH MAY COME INTO PLAY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER TOTALS OCCUR.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF A PACIFIC-
TYPE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
BASED ON A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING WEST WHILE THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS BENEATH AN INTENSIFYING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. EVEN AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS...IT WILL STILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DAMPENING OUT AND HEADING EAST OF THE PLAINS.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 56 76 57 79 / 30 10 5 0 5
WACO 69 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5
PARIS 65 52 73 54 75 / 60 20 5 0 5
DENTON 63 53 75 55 78 / 60 10 5 0 5
MCKINNEY 63 52 74 54 77 / 50 10 5 0 5
DALLAS 63 56 76 58 79 / 40 10 5 0 5
TERRELL 65 55 75 55 78 / 40 20 5 0 5
CORSICANA 70 56 76 56 79 / 20 20 5 0 5
TEMPLE 68 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 63 52 77 55 79 / 30 5 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PAIRED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE AT
LEAST 6 C/KM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WAS MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AT 1930Z. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
LINGERED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BOTH THE 19Z HRRR AND 19Z RAP
INDICATED SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS. THERE WAS AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE
SHORT TERM. WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS DEPART OR
DISSIPATE TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT GET ALL THAT WARM IN THE
FIRST PLACE...COULD DROP LIKE A ROCK TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS KEPT MOISTURE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-10KFT OVERNIGHT SO
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO COLD. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED ON
THE RHI TIME SECTION.
EXPECT FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY...EXCEPT AT LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MOS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE MILD TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FCST H8 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY. WILL NEED TO SPEED UP THE PCPN
TIMING A BIT.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
FCSTS WILL NOT BE EASY DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H8 TEMPS
BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...WHICH
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR AT MIDDAY.
THE VFR CIGS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH IFR CIGS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CRIVITZ TO WAUTOMA AS OF 1745Z. THERE
WERE ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS IN THE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...THOUGH
ANYTHING AT THAT POINT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BECOME
VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND SLOWLY WILL
BE REPLACED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS OF THE RAP AND NAM ARE
INDICATING MOSTLY DRY PROFILES ACROSS S WI TONIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER. SO...SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS S WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60 TO 65 F RANGE THANKS TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. 13.12Z GFS AND NAM 925 MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO THE 6 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S FURTHER INLAND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SELY SFC FLOW EACH DAY. MO
SUNNY DAYS AND MO CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S TO MID-UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FAST WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE BY LATE SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI SUN NT INTO MON WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL THEN DIG A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BE KEPT FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONGER NLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WI FOR TUE AND WED. MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SKIES LOOK TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO EASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
SOME LIGHT MARINE FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE COOLER LAKE TEMPERATURES
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF THIS LIGHT MARINE AREA FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ELSE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATION WITH
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS RAP SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 800 MB LEVEL LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY THE EVENING.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 40S IN OUR NORTHEAST NEAR THE SHEBOYGAN AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS OVER THE TAF SITES WOULD BE FOR MSN. INTRODUCED
VCSH FOR THE MSN TAF THROUGH 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN
TAF SITES...SO LEFT THEM DRY FOR NOW. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS FOR THE TAF SITES. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH SOME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
DRY AIR PROVING DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AS EXPECTED...WITH RADAR
RETURNS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND...WITH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PCPN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
CLOSEST GROUND TRUTH REPORTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ONLY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AREAS ON THE NOSE OF THE MORE FOCUSED
WAA WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN FAR NRN WI HAVE VSBY-REDUCING
PRECIPITATION REPORTS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
MODEL QPF IN LINE WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL WI AT 12Z...WITH A LOBE
EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW...THAT DOES NOT EXIT ERN WI UNTIL 18Z.
HOWEVER...BEST OMEGA WITH WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE REMAINS N AND NW OF CWA...WITH EASING FLOW
OVER A SLACKENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY. 285K
ISENTROPIC FORECASTS KEEP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT/ABOVE
100 MB EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE.
HOWEVER...RADAR SUGGESTS FOLLOWING THE TREND OF SHORT RANGE
MODELS AND WILL BRING SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH...FOR THE BAND OF ISOLATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM NE IOWA AND SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BETTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LIMITED TO THE FAR NE CWA UNTIL MID-MORNING...WHERE LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE FOUND.
HAVE SLOWED CLEARING...WITH NE CWA POTENTIALLY STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SW CWA GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...ALLOWING MIXING UP TO +7C
TO +8C 925 MB TEMPS. EASTERN AREAS COOLER WITH COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE SE WINDS AND CLOUDS LINGERING LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SECOND WEAKER WAVE CROSSES FAR NRN WI/UP OF MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...BUT NO PCPN. HOWEVER ALL MODELS KEEPING A POCKET OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SRN WI THAT BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE AXIS. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE THE MOST EXPANSIVE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT WITH A BIT MORE FLOW
IN A LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT
GRADUALLY REDUCES CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SOME WIND AND MIXING OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL HOLD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THEY ALSO SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP
500 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN COLDER THAN WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH LOWER TO
MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY WEAKENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES HERE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE
WITH POPS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. COOLER TEMPERATURES
THEN MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS
POPS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRY PERIODS IF DRIER TREND IN MODELS CONTINUES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A
MILWAUKEE...MADISON TO LONE ROCK LINE. CLOUDS NO LOWER THAN 5K TO
7K FEET. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
MARINE...
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
133 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOST RECENT UPDATE INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEM TO NOW BE FOCUSED IN TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS. THE FIRST ALONG THE NW ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW AND THE SECOND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA SPACE COAST AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE 50-60 POPS IN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SECTIONS WITH 20-40
POPS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 3-4 AM AND THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
CHARLESTON SINCE TIDE DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-1.5 FT MLLW
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
WE ALSO RAISED TEMPS DUE TO THE THICK OVERCAST SKIES AND ONSHORE
FETCH.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 OR 35 MPH. NOT
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE
NORTH WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION
SLIDES SE AND FILLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOES
NOT BUDGE KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIC. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOWING
HIGHEST 850-500 MB RH VALUES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD WHERE
WE HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS. POCKETS OF UPPER FORCING LACK FOCUS
AND WE EXPECT PERIODIC RAINS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC MOVING UP TOWARD THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION EAST TO CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES AND FROM SAVANNAH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ENTRANCE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DURING THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
WE CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS SE GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. REMNANT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE FULL HOLD WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR ALL AREAS. EXPECT LIGHTER NE WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID WEEK AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARMER READINGS MAY BE TEMPERED BY A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAINS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE STARTING AROUND 10Z. IFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT WILL
DEFER THIS POTENTIAL TO LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AS WINDS CLIMB TO 15-20 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS REACH
AROUND 25 KT.
KSAV...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM OFF THE OCEAN AND
ALLOWS FOR A STEADY LOWERING OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH THEN PREVAILS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID 06Z CYCLE. LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE
RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
MORE SO FRIDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN WE HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE
TO AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
FINALLY CLIMB UP NEAR 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
DURING MOST OF THE VALID 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAV THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCHS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFF THE GA/FL COAST OVERNIGHT...THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST
WITHIN 20 NM. WITHOUT THE DATA FROM BUOY 41008 WHICH REMAINS OUT
OF SERVICE...IT IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS EXIST. AT PRESENT
THE GUSTS ARE PROBABLY JUST BELOW 34 KT BASED ON OBS FARTHER NORTH
AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES DATA. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT SO WE MAINTAINED THE GALES FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR THE WINDS WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 20 KT...BUT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KT AT THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WHERE THE BETTER
GRADIENT EXISTS.
SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
GALES COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS AND ADVISORIES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A BIT LONG DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT THERE COULD SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH/LONG DURING NE FETCH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS..MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
FROM MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY SOME
SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH
EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DEPARTURES AS GREAT AS 1.0-2.0 FT
MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE MOST RECENT UPDATE INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH SEEM TO NOW BE FOCUSED IN TWO SEPARATE
REGIONS. THE FIRST ALONG THE NW ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW AND THE SECOND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FLORIDA SPACE COAST AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE 50-60 POPS IN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SECTIONS WITH 20-40
POPS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 3-4 AM AND THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN
CHARLESTON SINCE TIDE DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING SOME 1-1.5 FT MLLW
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
WE ALSO RAISED TEMPS DUE TO THE THICK OVERCAST SKIES AND ONSHORE
FETCH.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE GA/FL COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 OR 35 MPH. NOT
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDY WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE
NORTH WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION
SLIDES SE AND FILLS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOES
NOT BUDGE KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIC. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOWING
HIGHEST 850-500 MB RH VALUES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD WHERE
WE HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS. POCKETS OF UPPER FORCING LACK FOCUS
AND WE EXPECT PERIODIC RAINS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC MOVING UP TOWARD THE
SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION EAST TO CENTRAL COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DRIER. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES AND FROM SAVANNAH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ENTRANCE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DURING THE
DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
WE CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS SE GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. REMNANT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE FULL HOLD WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR ALL AREAS. EXPECT LIGHTER NE WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID WEEK AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND SE CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARMER READINGS MAY BE TEMPERED BY A
POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...EXPECT VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. FAIRLY DRY
AIR FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
KSAV...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE BEST ASCENT WILL BE FOUND IN
THIS AREA...A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WE MAINTAINED VFR VSBYS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCASIONALLY DROP VSBYS TO 5 SM OR LOWER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LESS
SUPPORTIVE AND THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR CEILINGS AS OF LATE SO WE SHOW NO LOWER THAN MVFR. SIMILAR TO
KCHS...GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSAV THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCHS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFF THE GA/FL COAST OVERNIGHT...THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST
WITHIN 20 NM. WITHOUT THE DATA FROM BUOY 41008 WHICH REMAINS OUT
OF SERVICE...IT IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GALE WARNINGS EXIST. AT PRESENT
THE GUSTS ARE PROBABLY JUST BELOW 34 KT BASED ON OBS FARTHER NORTH
AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES DATA. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND RUC INDICATE
WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT SO WE MAINTAINED THE GALES FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR THE WINDS WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 20 KT...BUT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KT AT THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WHERE THE BETTER
GRADIENT EXISTS.
SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
GALES COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS AND ADVISORIES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A BIT LONG DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT THERE COULD SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH/LONG DURING NE FETCH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS..MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
FROM MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND MAYBE EVENTUALLY SOME
SWELL ENERGY ARRIVING AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH
EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE DEPARTURES AS GREAT AS 1.0-2.0 FT
MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
256 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
CONTINUED QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WITH THE AREA REMAINING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR LAKE INDUCED WINDS
TO TURN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CHICAGO
TAF SITES...WHILE MORE NORTHEAST AT GYY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. East to
southeast winds around 10 KTS will persist, and cloud cover will
be minimal.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
303 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER AS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BATTLES AGAINST A HIGH BLOCK OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE KICKER
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROF DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW AS IT OPENS UP
BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SHIFT EAST. THOUGH...THIS LOW IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AND FADE AS IT FIGHTS AGAINST SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STEADY OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO FINALLY RETURN BY
THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW SHIFTS INTO
KENTUCKY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EASTWARD
BUT STILL LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.
GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN RECENTLY ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE MOVING
DEEPER TOWARD OR INTO A DROUGHT...AS WE ARE RUNNING TWO AND A HALF
INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR RAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THREW IN LLWS OVERNIGHT AND HIT CONVECTION HARDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALSO...CEILINGS MAY BE LOWER...ESPECIALLY AT KEAR...AND
WENT MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
DEEPENING UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED H850 LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS
WILL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLE IN LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND
INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NEXT 3 TO
6 HOURS. AS THE SHOWERS MIX DOWN H850 WINDS HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS AT PLACES LIKE DICKINSON...HETTINGER AND GARRISON.
AS A RESULT RAISED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
SOUTH CENTRAL. THEN FOCUSED ON THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM BAND AND
REFOCUSED POPS SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THIS BAND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 6 HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0245 UTC AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. EXPECT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN TO
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 09-10 UTC AS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.10 INCHES.
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARCHING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONG...AROUND 50 KTS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THUS...A LOW END DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS COUPLES
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. PROGRESSING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MODESTLY
INCREASES AS INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLOGENESIS.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY PERFORMING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
CONVECTION...SO THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM THE HRRR. CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA THEN EXPANDS INTO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE MONDAK AREA AROUND 00 UTC FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WHERE THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA CENTERED AROUND 00 UTC IF WE DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS HIGH. THEN FROM 00 UTC THROUGH 06 UTC STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY MERIDIONAL.
RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR. BUT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
AS CONVECTION LIFTS FARTHER NORTH. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAPE...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AFTER THIS EVENING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH TRACKS TO NEAR
BISMARCK BY AROUND 15 UTC FRIDAY. AFTER 15 UTC FRIDAY THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST DURING THE DAY...INTO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY 00 UTC SATURDAY. THUS AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE COULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF BISMARCK INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO CROSBY AND WILLISTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THOUGH AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY...THEN A TOUGH CALL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TWO SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEYOND SATURDAY...EITHER IT
REMAINS WET AND COOL THROUGH TUESDAY PER GFS...OR PER ECMWF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN A DRYING AND
MODERATING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FORMATION OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SITUATED OVER A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TUCKED AWAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS 500MB HEIGHT FIELD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AS IT MEANDERS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A WEAKER UPPER HIGH. A DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A POOLED MOISTURE FIELD AND RESULTANT SHOWERS. THE FAR
NORTH LOOKS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE REX BLOCK FORMATION AND
SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT
IS A DRY PATTERN AS THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A SLOW
MODERATING TREND COMMENCES DURING THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GRIDDED DATA MORE OR LESS TAKES A
BLEND OF THE WET GFS AND DRY ECMWF AND ARRIVES AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHUNTS THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO ABOVE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...THEN 50S SUNDAY...RISING TO THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE POCKETS OF LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
EVERY SO OFTEN...SOME OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
IN RAPID CITY`S CWA IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER INTO SOME OF OUR WEST
RIVER COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. STILL THERE IS RATHER STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE CWA...HELPING TO DRAW SOME
HIGHER 850HPA DEWPOINT AIR /STILL LESS THAN 10C THOUGH/ UP INTO
THE REGION. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL
PROMOTE RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...SO NO PLANS TO COOL
DOWN ANY OF THE CURRENT NIGHT-TIME LOWS. SHORT RANGE CAM SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS DOWN ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO SODAK AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
JUST UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SODAK AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW
POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP
EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD
SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE
DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND
1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL
BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE
VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL
STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
AT LEAST THE KPIR TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY MORNING...PROBABLY THE KMBG
TERMINAL AS WELL. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ONGOING
TONIGHT WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
SO...CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE KABR AND
KATY TERMINALS BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN/BEHIND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH
MORNING IN THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SOMETHING THAT WILL
BE MONITORED FOR.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 15/18Z TOMORROW. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 3-8KTS INCREASING
TO 10-12 KTS BY MIDDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND TUP.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 736 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING...SOUTH FLOW RETURNS MIDDAY FRIDAY.
A STOUT INVERSION HAS KEPT THE STRATOCU DECK FROM EFFECTIVELY
SCATTERING OUT TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AND THE EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TONIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE EVENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN
BY MIDDAY...BUT EVEN THEIR WARMTH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT VFR
CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ115>117-
129>133-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
930 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH WEB CAMS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON
AREAL ROADWAYS...EVEN UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SPOTTERS REPORTING
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH UP TO 9
INCHES IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA...ALTHOUGH SNOW HAD ENDED AS
OF THE LAST REPORT. ADVISORIES FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE WITH HRRR AND RAP13 BOTH INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ENERGY SLIDES SOUTH WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH IT AND SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS WILL SEE A
COLD RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE 6K
LEVEL. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW COLD CAN WE GET IT IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL BE LOOKING AT THAT IN DETAIL LATER THIS MORNING. VALLEY POPS
HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH HRRR
FOLLOWED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO BOTTOM LINE...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OF
FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
FIRST PART OF THIS PROLONGED STORM HAS STARTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING WHICH BROUGHT SOME THUNDER STRONG
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR. AS EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPED UP NORTH AND SNOW IS THE PRIMARY
PTYPE. RADAR SIGNATURES THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST BANDED
PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SLANT WISE
CONVECTION IS BEING RELEASED BY UPGLIDE OR ENHANCEMENT FROM A WEAK
COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS COME IN THIS MORNING UNDER THE BANDS. FOR THE MOST
PART THINK ADVISORIES WORKED WELL. MSAS/LAPS DATA SUGGESTS THE
FRONTAL PUSH SOUTH HAS SLOWED THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS ALIGNED
CLOSE TO WHERE WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY...AND WINDS ALONG THE TERRAIN
ROUGHLY FROM VAIL PASS TO NUCLA AND BACK ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
AS THE MAIN UPPER PORTION OF THE STORM DIGS INTO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE SLOWER TO PUSH
SOUTH DUE TO THE FLOW BACKING TO MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. THE WESTERN
PORTION MAY BE ABLE TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE COOLER AIR AND
STRONGER ASCENT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN GENERAL HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SHIFT FROM NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL SEE A BIT OF A BREAK AND THIS SHOULD LINE
UP WITH EARLIER THINKING AND ALLOWING THE ADVISORIES TO DROP.
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE MAIN CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS TO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS IT BECOMES
STACKED VERTICALLY...AND THIS IN TURN WILL BEGIN TO PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HILLS FROM THE FRONT RANGE. STILL SOME
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE ENERGY FROM THE STORM
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CIRCULATION...BUT IN GENERAL THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR
VAIL PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. EXPECT THE FRONT SHOULD
LEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS BY THIS TIME AND THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL SHOULD APPROACH MOUNTAIN BASES. BEST GUESS
IS 7000 FT LEVEL WILL BE WHERE SNOW BEGINS TO STICK SOME ON
VEGETATION BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BELOW MAINLY MELT AS IT
FALLS...SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS DOWN
SOUTH JUST YET. I-70 CORRIDOR FROM RIL TO EGE AND WEST VAIL ALSO
APPEAR TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CONFIDENCE. WIND AND MAYBE IN
ADDITION TO SNOW WILL BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE TO THE NORTH. THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UNDER THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE NOT OUT OF QUESTION ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE. ANY SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE AGAIN NOT HIGH ON PTYPE...RATE...AND
DURATION SO WILL LET NEXT CREW TAKE A BETTER LOOK. RAW DAY TODAY
ACROSS MANY PLACES WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE LOW WILL BE OPENING UP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
BEGIN TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THE HEAVIER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED
NORTHWARD AND SPREADING ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVIER SNOW RATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THEN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SNOW HEADLINES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ATTM THROUGH SOME BREAKS ARE LIKELY BEFORE THEN. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WESTERN COLORADO INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH. BEYOND THIS
WARMING AND DRYING SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
WIND...SNOW AND LOW CIGS WILL ALL IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT AREA FORECAST TERMINALS. THROUGH THE FIRST
SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER OF IMPACTS TO I-70
CORRIDOR AIRPORTS AND INTO KASE WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOCUSED NEAR A STALLING FRONT. KCNY AND KMTJ MAY BE IMPACTED
THROUGH 18Z AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON KTEX...KEGE AND KASE SEEM THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
IMPACTS FROM LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA WITH WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELDS. THE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE SAN JUANS SO
THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED FROM WEATHER.
TO THE WEST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND STRONG
NORTHEAST GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KVEL...KCNY AND KGJT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ003-004-009-
010-012-013-017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ025-028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
901 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRID TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT RANGE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 18Z
IN THE LAKE REGION, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FORM. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS TO BEGIN WITH, BUT
BY 20Z, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP HAS A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AS WELL.
FOR NOW, A VCSH AFTER 18Z AND SHRA WITH VCTS AFTER 20Z IS IN MOST
OF THE TAFS. VFR IS FORECAST AT ALL SITES, BUT ANY SITE MAY SEE
BRIEF IFR WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PASS OVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION IMPACTED NRN PALM BEACH COUNTY,
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND NIGHT HAS BEEN DRY. FEW WEST TO EAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS, JUST
NORTH OF SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THESE FEATURE...ASSOCIATED WITH FLATTENING H8-5 TROUGH
OVER SERN CONUS, WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, AND
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND UNRECOGNIZABLE BY SUNDAY AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW REGIME. UNTIL
THEN, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESIDE IN A WARM, SOMEWHAT MOIST/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH /AS LOW AS
-12C AT 500MB/ COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES AND REMNANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. YESTERDAY SAW
ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND TODAYS
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH WITH DOWNBURST THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED NERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK. FLOW WILL PROPAGATE STORMS ENEWD, SO BEST CHANCE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION IS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
DYNAMICS FOR SATURDAY ARE LESS FAVORABLE, BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY
IMPRESSIVE TO WARRANT THUNDER IN FORECAST. BY SUNDAY, DRIER ENE
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC, QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL, HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXIST ALONG ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EASTERLY
WINDS MAY AT TIMES BE GUSTY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERS NORTH
OF THE REGION, THUS ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY, ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT AND HIGH SEAS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 82 70 / 60 50 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 71 85 71 / 60 50 50 40
MIAMI 86 71 85 70 / 40 40 60 40
NAPLES 85 69 85 65 / 30 40 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A weak upper level disturbance over northeast Arkansas late this
morning continues to edge very slowly east and at the same time
was pushing some shallow moisture/clouds (6000-8000 ft) north into
parts of central Illinois. These clouds shouldn`t have much, if
any affect on afternoon temperatures with the latest forecast
soundings suggesting we should easily mix down from 6500 feet
which should push afternoon temps up a few degrees from the
previous forecast. In addition, as has been the case over the past
few days, dew points will be adjusted downward with the deep
mixing expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. The updated zones should be out by 1045 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions and SE winds 8-12 kts expected for the next 24
hours across central IL terminals. Scattered cloud cover expected
to develop for the afternoon/early evening...but precipitation
unlikely.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
1023 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...THOUGH DID BUMP MAX
TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID-70S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS AND NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPS AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL HELP WITH QUICK WARMING AND LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BUMPED TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN AROUND PONTIAC...WHERE 925-850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST MID-70S ARE ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIMIT TEMPS
THERE TO THE LOW- MID 50S. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND AND OTHER THAN AFOREMENTIONED TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
SOUTH WILL LET THINGS RIDE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
THE ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE TAFS REMAIN THE WIND. AREA
AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES HELPING TO TURN
CHICAGO TAF SITES TO A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT. BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
PASSAGE...BOTH ORD AND MDW SHOULD BE AT 10-11 KT REGULARLY FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions and SE winds 8-12 kts expected for the next 24
hours across central IL terminals. Scattered cloud cover expected
to develop for the afternoon/early evening...but precipitation
unlikely.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FEW-SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL PASS BY MOST SITES AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO WIND AT KIND. BROUGHT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS
EARLIER AT KHUF/KBMG.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 080-110 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING
EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
GO WITH CHANCE POPS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 080-110 DEGREES AT 6-9 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOP BELOW FL100...BUT NOT ANYTHING TO
WARRANT SUB-VFR CRITERIA. WHILE SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO...BELIEVE THE DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE TAFS
DRY. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE WEST SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO KEAR THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
AFFECT KGRI. SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COMES
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS A
50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEAR GARRISON
AT MID MORNING TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW AND THEN SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS /AS
THAT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING RADAR TRENDS WELL/...BUT DID
HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A BIT
LONGER THAN THE HRRR ALONE WOULD SUGGEST BASED ON UPSTREAM SHOWERS
IN SD AS OF 1445 UTC. THAT SAID...WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES MODELED
IN GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IMPLY BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT VERY
WELL COULD PRODUCE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES 17-23 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM CROSBY
TO TIOGA IN FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXING
DOWN FROM THE STRONG 850MB LEVEL DUE TO SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 7 AM. WILL HANDLE THIS SMALL
AREA WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND COVERS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. UPDATED LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVED EARLIER THIS NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN BUT STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF 35 TO 50
MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THESE ISOLATED REPORTS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT DID
ADD AN AREA OF 30 TO 45 MPH WINS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING THE WEST
RIVER AREA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI AND ACROSS TEH NORTHWEST. WITH
TIME THIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVER WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY BUT GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ISSUE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE H850
LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS STRONG ABOVE 40 KTS FOR THE MORNING.
TEH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINES TO TEH EAST
TONIGHT WITH A BIT IF SNOW MIXING INTO TEH PICTURE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SOME SNOW SATURDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX INTO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF AND FORMS A REX BLOCK BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE
BLOCK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER NORTH WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK MILDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE REX BLOCK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN A BREAK MAY OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTS MAINLY EASTERN ND TONIGHT /INCLUDING
KJMS/. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
AT MID MORNING COULD LIFT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL FOR
A TIME TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN AREA-WIDE BY TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS/WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1000 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
AT 10 AM CDT AROUND THE REGION SHOWERS ARE ONGOING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALOFT
OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...RISING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS
SUCH HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER PERFORMED ON HIGHS YESTERDAY. POPS ALSO
REQUIRED ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AT SOME LOCALES FOR BOTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS AFTER NOON.
THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE PAST FEW
DAYS BUT FEEL LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COME TO AN END TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FEATURE FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN DISPERSING.
AS OF 10 AM...THE ONLY SITES STILL REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE WERE HAMILTON AND GATESVILLE. THE REMAINING FOG WILL
DISPERSE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THUS WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS BUT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING FOG AND CLOUD
COVER HAS ALSO LED US TO LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR
THROUGH LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. UPDATES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KACT AREA...AND ALSO IN RURAL LOCALES
SUCH AS KGKY. THE MORE URBAN AIRPORTS IN THE DFW AREA HAVE BEEN
SPARED THE DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT AFTER
15Z AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY IMPROVE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KT OR
SO WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF
LIFR VISIBILITIES. IFR CIGS WILL BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG
OR BR. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KACT AREA...AND ALSO IN RURAL LOCALES
SUCH AS KGKY. THE MORE URBAN AIRPORTS IN THE DFW AREA HAVE BEEN
SPARED THE DENSE FOG FORMATION...BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT AFTER
15Z AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY IMPROVE AT ALL
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 10 KT OR
SO WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF
LIFR VISIBILITIES. IFR CIGS WILL BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG
OR BR. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
...SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE MORNING DENSE FOG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WET SOILS HAVE FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
THE LOWEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO
HILLSBORO TO HEARNE LINE FALLING BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND
AS A RESULT WE WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WE WILL MONITOR ADDITIONAL TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION IN AREA IS
WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO LEE- SIDE CYCLOGENESIS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. THE RESULTANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HERE. THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT.
FOR SATURDAY...APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN HERE DURING THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DRY FRIDAY DEPARTS THE REGION. WHILE A BULK OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE DESCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DOES WARRANT MAINTAINING AT LEAST A 20 POP IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREAWIDE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EARLY
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IN KEEPING A
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. THIS ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE COARSER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WITH THEIR PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BETTER RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS INSTABILITY REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FOR MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES.
...LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE HEARTLAND BACK DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE. WITH FORCING ALONG
THE TROUGH/FRONT COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL EXIST WITH
THIS SETUP. FOR SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...THOUGH RAIN MAY LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASE IN BOTH
OF THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. RIGHT NOW...FORECAST
PROFILES WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
(AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT)...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE
MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INCREASING PWATS WILL ALSO
FOSTER A HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER HAZARD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY THREATS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH I-20 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL. AS HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
MORE READILY AVAILABLE...REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE.
FOR MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT...THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DURING MONDAY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO. OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD CERTAINLY FALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
BAIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 62 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
WACO 80 61 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
PARIS 76 62 72 60 72 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENTON 78 62 73 62 70 / 0 10 30 40 70
MCKINNEY 77 62 74 62 71 / 0 10 30 30 60
DALLAS 78 62 76 65 72 / 0 5 30 30 70
TERRELL 78 63 76 63 71 / 0 5 20 20 60
CORSICANA 78 63 77 65 72 / 0 5 20 30 60
TEMPLE 80 60 76 65 71 / 0 5 30 30 70
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 72 61 68 / 0 5 40 50 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ115>117-
129>133-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET INITIATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT THAT THEY WILL, WITH TIMING
BEING MAINLY AFTER 20Z. SPC HAS PLACED SOME OF THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SITES UNDER THE SLIGHT
RISK ARE FROM KFLL NORTH. THE AREA ALSO INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA
IN THE LAKE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
HEAVY SHOWER/STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
UPDATE...
A FEW UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRID TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT RANGE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 18Z
IN THE LAKE REGION, AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION IMPACTED NRN PALM BEACH COUNTY,
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND NIGHT HAS BEEN DRY. FEW WEST TO EAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS, JUST
NORTH OF SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THESE FEATURE...ASSOCIATED WITH FLATTENING H8-5 TROUGH
OVER SERN CONUS, WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, AND
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND UNRECOGNIZABLE BY SUNDAY AS THE
AFORE MENTIONED TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW REGIME. UNTIL
THEN, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESIDE IN A WARM, SOMEWHAT MOIST/HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH /AS LOW AS
-12C AT 500MB/ COMBINED WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES AND REMNANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. YESTERDAY SAW
ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND TODAYS
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH WITH DOWNBURST THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED NERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION IN MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK. FLOW WILL PROPAGATE STORMS ENEWD, SO BEST CHANCE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION IS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
DYNAMICS FOR SATURDAY ARE LESS FAVORABLE, BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY
IMPRESSIVE TO WARRANT THUNDER IN FORECAST. BY SUNDAY, DRIER ENE
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC, QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL, HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXIST ALONG ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EASTERLY
WINDS MAY AT TIMES BE GUSTY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERS NORTH
OF THE REGION, THUS ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN.
MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY, ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN SUNDAY, BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT AND HIGH SEAS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 70 79 / 50 60 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 85 71 80 / 50 50 40 30
MIAMI 71 85 70 81 / 40 60 40 20
NAPLES 69 85 65 86 / 40 50 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
145 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
133 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASE WITH TIME
RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING OF THE COLUMN...WHICH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE WILL REMAIN DRY AND LARGELY
CLOUDLESS OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWEST WITH TIME AS THE
RIDGE DEVELOPS ALOFT...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SYNOPTIC WINDS OVER THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. DRY COLUMN SUPPORTS LARGE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPS...AND GENERALLY HAVE FAVORED WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
MID/FEW UPPER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. CLOSE TO
THE SHORE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE 50S SATURDAY AND
AROUND 60 SUNDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S APPEAR GOOD.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SEE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE PUSHES BOTH TODAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR/CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A weak upper level disturbance over northeast Arkansas late this
morning continues to edge very slowly east and at the same time
was pushing some shallow moisture/clouds (6000-8000 ft) north into
parts of central Illinois. These clouds shouldn`t have much, if
any affect on afternoon temperatures with the latest forecast
soundings suggesting we should easily mix down from 6500 feet
which should push afternoon temps up a few degrees from the
previous forecast. In addition, as has been the case over the past
few days, dew points will be adjusted downward with the deep
mixing expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. The updated zones should be out by 1045 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. High
pressure to our northeast will continue to bring quiet weather
to the TAF area. A few-sct clouds at around 6000-7000 feet will
be possible, but coverage too limited at this time to include a
group in the current forecast. Surface winds will be east to
southeast at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon and Saturday, and from 5
to 10 kts tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
1023 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...THOUGH DID BUMP MAX
TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID-70S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS AND NORTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONTINUED
WARMING OF TEMPS AS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
WILL HELP WITH QUICK WARMING AND LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BUMPED TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN AROUND PONTIAC...WHERE 925-850MB TEMPS
SUGGEST MID-70S ARE ATTAINABLE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WILL LIMIT TEMPS
THERE TO THE LOW- MID 50S. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND AND OTHER THAN AFOREMENTIONED TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN
SOUTH WILL LET THINGS RIDE.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 AM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
GREAT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...A
BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP ALL OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER WELL WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC...WILL BE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FLOW OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL BE IDEAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKE WILL LIKELY WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A GOOD 13 TO 16 DEGREES
COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SATURDAY A BIT MORE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ALSO POSSIBLY SOME
MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
KJB
&&
.LONG TERM...
256 AM CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD ACT LIKE A PNEUMONIA FRONT NEAR THE LAKE...WITH
A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SEE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE PUSHES BOTH TODAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR/CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
115 AM CDT
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTHEAST WIND. NEARSHORE AREAS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WISCONSIN SHORES
WILL SEE A MAINLY ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...WITH
SOMETIME MONDAY PRESENTLY FAVORED. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR
SHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A weak upper level disturbance over northeast Arkansas late this
morning continues to edge very slowly east and at the same time
was pushing some shallow moisture/clouds (6000-8000 ft) north into
parts of central Illinois. These clouds shouldn`t have much, if
any affect on afternoon temperatures with the latest forecast
soundings suggesting we should easily mix down from 6500 feet
which should push afternoon temps up a few degrees from the
previous forecast. In addition, as has been the case over the past
few days, dew points will be adjusted downward with the deep
mixing expected this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. The updated zones should be out by 1045 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
Upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over northeast
Arkansas will remain nearly stationary today. Cloud cover
associated with this feature will pivot N/NW across south-central
Illinois into eastern Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon.
Some of the high-res models such as the HRRR are even trying to
develop isolated showers along/southwest of a Galesburg to Effingham
line after 19z/20z. While forecast soundings show steepening lapse
rates, a pronounced dry layer remains in place below 850mb thanks to
continued dry SE flow around prevailing surface ridge. As a result,
will go with a mostly sunny and dry forecast today. High
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday,
reaching the lower 70s across the board.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
A warm and dry weekend is on tap across central Illinois, as an
upper-level blocking pattern across the CONUS keeps a strong ridge
locked in place over the Great Lakes/Midwest. Temperatures will
warm a degree or two each day, with highs reaching the middle to
perhaps upper 70s by Sunday and Monday.
The big question in the extended is how quickly the blocking pattern
will break down. Models have been struggling with this for the past
several runs, with each successive solution seemingly slower than
the last. The 00z Apr 15 run of the GFS/ECMWF is actually in fairly
good agreement, featuring a deep upper low over the Rockies/western
Plains slowly meandering eastward into Illinois by Thursday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge further east is flattened by a northern-
stream wave tracking across southern Canada. This feature will push
a weak cold front into central Illinois late Monday into Tuesday:
however, it will have very little moisture to work with, so have
only carried slight chance PoPs for showers with its passage. Will
have to wait until stronger lift/deeper moisture arrive with the
Rockies upper low for better rain chances later in the week. At this
time, it appears scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good
bet on Thursday as the upper low weakens and tracks eastward into
the area. Given falling upper heights, the much above normal
temperatures this weekend will be replaced by readings closer to
normal in the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2016
VFR conditions and SE winds 8-12 kts expected for the next 24
hours across central IL terminals. Scattered cloud cover expected
to develop for the afternoon/early evening...but precipitation
unlikely.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THAT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LATE WEEK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW THESE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AFTER 10 AM. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON HI RES OUTPUT AND TRENDS LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO DROPPED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BASED ON
MIXING...EASTERLY FLOW AND RECENT VERIFICATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW...ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
BASED ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD TODAY PER THE 00Z MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
TAKE ANY THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH IT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO A BLEND IS IN ORDER FOR MOST ELEMENTS.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAYERED RH PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MODEL LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS WERE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANGE. SO...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LOWER MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE MODEL
DEW POINTS LATELY. WITH MOS DEW POINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S PER THE 00Z MOS BLEND LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
WITH MOST FORCING WELL OFF THE EAST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FEEL THAT
ODDS OF RAIN ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. REMOVED ANY SUPERBLEND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THUS KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THOSE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME FEW-SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6000FT WILL PASS BY MOST SITES AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN...WITH JUST VERY MINOR
CHANGES OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT SUBSTANTIVE
OVERALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BATTLES AGAINST A HIGH
BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THE KICKER
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROF DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW AS IT OPENS UP
BUT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THIS FRONT WITH THE GFS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. FLOW THEN TURNS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST /USHERING IN
MORE MOISTURE/ AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE FOUR CORNERS LOW TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KENTUCKY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS
FIGHTING AGAINST SFC RIDGING AND MAY TREND EVEN SLOWER IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. WHENEVER THE LOW DOES REACH KENTUCKY...THE DRY SPELL
WILL BE BROKEN...WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TO END THE PERIOD.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW
MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY DRY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER...ARE PROGGED
TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW MOVES TOWARDS
KENTUCKY. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE PRECIP MOVING IN
ALMOST A FULL 24 HOURS LATER. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MOSTLY DUE TO
THE INTERACTION OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY...HAVE DECIDED TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND INIT BUT UNDERCUTTING SOME OF THE POPS
ON WED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY COULD REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR....AT LEAST FOR JKL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN...WITH JUST VERY MINOR
CHANGES OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
BLENDED MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITHOUT SUBSTANTIVE
OVERALL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY PER THE
LATEST HRRR...THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RECENT RUNS
BACKING OFF WITH EACH UPDATE WILL KEEP THE POPS SUB 10 PERCENT.
THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST
DRAMATIC GRADIENT ON THE CHART IS ONE OF DEWPOINT VARYING BY OVER
30 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN THE FAR SOUTH ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ONLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE MORE OPEN AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SEEMS FITTING GIVEN THAT OUR LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST
MONTH AND A HALF HAS BROUGHT PARTS OF THE CWA TO D0 DROUGHT
STATUS. THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ARE MAINLY FOUND TO THE SOUTH SO
THAT THEY ARE NOT INTERFERING WITH THE GOOD INVERSION SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ACCORDINGLY...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXIST FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ON
THE HILLS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY IS MISSING OUT ON THIS
SPLIT DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SO THAT
READINGS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS...
ALONG WITH A BALMY LOW 60S AT LOZ AND THE HARLAN AIRPORT. THE SFC
CHART DID ALSO SHOW A GRADIENT OF PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE STATE AND THIS IS KEEPING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING
FOR THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS THERE...ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NEARLY
CALM.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS FOUND IN THE MIDST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WEAKNESS CONTAINS SOME
LOOSE PACKETS OF ENERGY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT ALL WILL FADE OUT WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE
COMPLETELY LATER TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
IS PUMPED UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD
PICTURE AND TYPICAL TROUBLE WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE MARCH. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THE
LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY INEFFECTUAL AT KICKING UP ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN DURING PEAK HEATING...BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WELL TONIGHT AND MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH CAPITAL WEATHER ON TAP
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET
UP TONIGHT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IN THOSE SPOTS THOUGH...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. KEPT THE POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT...IN
LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP CAMP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OUT OF
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE RIDGE
DETERIORATES A BIT...AND BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AS OF 20Z... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS. SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
AT KAIA TO UPPER 60S AT KONL. MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN TAKING
PLACE ALL MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S AS
NORTH AS KVTN AND KONL AND THE MID 50S FROM KMCK TO KTIF. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHILE ACTIVITY
IS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SFC
OBS LOCATE THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE OTHER SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THIS EVENING... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEB HWY 2 AND
ALONG/WEST OF U.S. HWY 83. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AS OF 20Z... AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 03Z.
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE RAP WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4. THE INSTABILITY CAN BE
VERIFIED BY A LINE OF CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. RAP ALSO INDICATES
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE WITH VALUES TO 1500J/KG NEAR KOGA AND KIML WITH
A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEARLY 1000J/KG TO SOUTHERN CHERRY COUNTY.
AXIS OF HIGHEST MIXING RATIOS... NEAR 11G/KG... ALIGNS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM KIML TO KOGA TO KVTN WITH DECENT MOISTURE EAST TO
HWY 83. WITH THE STORM MOTION BEING NEARLY PARELLEL TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-3KM VECTORS... CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
BE A LINE OR CLUSTER/MULTICELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PEGGED AT
NEARLY 40KTS IN THE RAP AND NAM... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SYSTEM. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW... ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY. RAP AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW 0-1KM SRH NEAR
300M2/S2 SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 00Z. THE 12Z KLBF RAOB AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL VEERING WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT... SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES TO UNDER 500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE SANDHILLS AND TSRA EAST OF A
KIML TO KONL LINE AFTER 06Z DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND CONTINUED
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS
EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... WHERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO COOLER THAN EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS. THROUGH 12Z... TEMP
PROFILE IN RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS STAYS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
700HPA... SO LEFT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THUS A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE
PART OF THE CWA TO LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS NW NEB
INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SNOW ACROSS NW ZONES. THE GFS BREAKS THE RIDGE
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOW STARTING TO PUSH ONTO
THE PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO SW
NEB. THINK THE RIDGE...WHICH EXTENDS TO HUDSON BAY...WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN THAT FAST AND HAVE FAVORED THE OTHER MODELS WHICH BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...LOCALLY HEAVY...TO THE REGION.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH
EAST...MODEL CONSENSUS...HOWEVER STILL SEEING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY TO BRING ONE
LAST CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW CHANCE...OF RAINFALL. THEN A DRYING
PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH EVEN WARM TEMPS FOR BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS... AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
OVERNIGHT... PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OR STEADY
RAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH WIND SWITCHING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40 KTS... PRIMARILY
FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND TERMINALS EAST. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
NO HYDROLOGY HEADLINES FOR NOW. LONG DURATION HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS 6 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS TO RISE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION AND THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING FLOODING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN. IF THE WAVES HIT FAVORED LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNIVELY
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SNIVELY
HYDROLOGY...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN ISSUES INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN OUR FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS THAT IS TRAVERSING THE CWA TO THE EAST. I EXPECT PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE IN OUR NORTH AND TO SOME EXTENT OUR CENTRAL CWA
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
SUPERIOR WITH THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND HAVE GRAVITATED
TOWARD HRRR THIS MORNING. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONCERN ME ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SPECTACULAR.
A CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEPENING TROUGH AND
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. A MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL KICK OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL KICK UP
CONVECTION NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THIS CONVECTION
COULD MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE IN OUR WESTERN CWA. IN OUR
FAR WEST...WITH CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6 KM IN THE 30 TO 35 KTS RANGE...I
WILL NEED TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT WE ARE IN EARLY SEVERE SEASON. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...I REALLY
LIKE THE BIAS CORRECTED RAWBLEND GRIDS SINCE THEY HAVE DONE THE BEST
FOR TEMPERATURES IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS 3
TO 5 KNOTS COMPARED TO THE WIND GUST ALGORITHM THAT IS NORMALLY
RUN...AS CONSRAW SEEMS TO BE FAR SUPERIOR. I ALSO USED MOSGUIDE FOR
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST WITH TIME. I GENERALLY LIKE WHAT SREF HAS
DONE AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY...BUT TAMPED DOWN A BIT. MOST OF ANY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AND I BELIEVE OUR FAR WEST WOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE WE WOULD EVER BEGIN
TO HAVE ANY WATER PROBLEMS. WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
AS THIS IS USUALLY SUPERIOR IN SITUATION WHERE WE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...BUT SOME SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTH MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 60. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
PAST 10 PM AS INSTABILITY WANES AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.
WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST. OUR FAR EAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET A WHOLE LOT
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
SHORT-CHANGE THE EAST.
AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
TERM. ALTHOUGH OUR FAR WEST IS IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN...EVEN THIS IS A BIT TO FAR EAST TO CONCERN ME THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS FROM A FORECASTER COVERING MOST OF THIS LONG
TERM TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST TIME:
1) WOW...WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT LITERALLY EVERY ONE OF THE
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURED RAIN
CHANCES?!
2) ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FINER
DETAILS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES GROWING THAT THE CWA WILL SEE A
VERY WELCOMED SOAKING OF CUMULATIVE RAINS DURING THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AND QUITE POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. ALTHOUGH WE ONLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST QPF/RAINFALL
TOTALS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS...A BLEND OF OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ALONG WITH NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA CAN GENERALLY EXPECT MULTI-DAY TOTALS OF 1.5-3"...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF GENERALLY 3-5". OF COURSE...AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS BUSINESS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED HIGHER/LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ARE LIKELY.
3) CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD CONTINUE TO
LOOK PRETTY LOW (ESPECIALLY BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS). ALTHOUGH
"SURPRISES" CAN AND SOMETIMES DO HAPPEN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE
LARGE/LUMBERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF
APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED INSTABILITY
ARGUES IN FAVOR OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) KEEPING THE
CURRENT DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA...WITH EVEN LESS OF A STRONG STORM THREAT FOR SUNDAY (DAY 3).
STICKING WITH THE BIG PICTURE STORY OF ALL THESE RAIN CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST "SOME" CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...BY FAR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
ARE FOCUSED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...OUR LATEST OFFICIAL QPF/RAINFALL FORECAST CURRENTLY
ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...AND THUS DOESN`T
QUITE CAPTURE THE ENTIRE MAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH OUR
CURRENT/UPCOMING WEB-BASED GRAPHICS DO A BETTER JOB OF
"VISUALIZING" EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS THAN THIS WRITTEN PRODUCT...THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING-MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM LESS THAN 1" IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA NEAR HIGHWAY 81...TO GENERALLY 3-4" IN COUNTIES ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN BETWEEN...MIDDLE AREAS SUCH
AS THE TRI-CITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-2.50" POTENTIAL FOR
THESE 48 HOURS.
DESPITE HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY...IF PARTS OF OUR WESTERN CWA
DO IN FACT REALIZE AT LEAST 3-4" OF RAIN DURING THESE NEXT 72
HOURS AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE THEREAFTER...IT`S LIKELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MAINLY MINOR/NUISANCE SHORT-TERM FLOODING
ISSUES COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT LIMITED
VEGETATIVE GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO COUNTERACT RUNOFF. THAT BEING
SAID...DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE THE NEED FOR A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THAT RAINFALL "SHOULD" BE REASONABLY SPACED-OUT OVER MULTIPLE
"WAVES". OFFICIAL 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING AROUND 3"...SO UNLESS A LOT OF RAIN ENDS UP FALLING IN A
SHORT TIME...TRULY IMPACTFUL/WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE
HELD AT BAY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
HIGHLIGHTING A CUMULATIVE/PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID) AND WEB-BASED/SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS...BUT STILL FOREGOING
A FORMAL FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES OF HEART OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN THIS SUDDENLY-WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
COME TO AN END: ALTHOUGH IT`S JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
7-DAY FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK WILL "PROBABLY" FEATURE NO RAIN CHANCES ANYWHERE
IN THE CWA FOR A CHANGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES...DIURNAL RANGES SHOULD BE
HELD DOWN. IN GENERAL...HIGHS ON MOST OF THESE 6 DAYS ARE AIMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S RANGE...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN CWA MAY ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 55 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED INTO EITHER THE 40S/50S
ON ALL NIGHTS...WITH NO HINTS OF A THREAT FOR SUB-FREEZING
READINGS EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARDS BEYOND THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAIN: ALTHOUGH
THIS WETTER TYPE OF PATTERN COULD EASILY YIELD ONE OR MORE ROUNDS
OF IMPACTFUL FOG...THERE ARE NONE "OBVIOUS" AT THIS TIME. IN A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE PERSISTENCE OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBVIOUSLY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOULD GREATLY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WITH THE MAIN POINTS/THEMES COVERED...WILL FINISH UP WITH SOME
FAIRLY BRIEF DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN 12-36 HOUR BLOCKS:
SATURDAY DAYTIME: A DEFINITE WEST-TO-EAST DISPARITY IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH MEASURABLE CHANCES/POPS RANGING FROM
ONLY 30-40 PERCENT IN FAR EASTERN ZONES TO 80 PERCENT IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO SEE HARDLY ANY RAIN. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NM AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: A WEAK FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL START MAKING ITS
WAY INTO ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT HOW FAR IS STILL IN
QUESTION. VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT CONTINUE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM...AGAIN STILL FAVORING WESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN MORE THAN THE
EAST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: WHILE GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CWA...FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES THIS 24 HOURS MIGHT END
UP BEING THE "MAIN EVENT" AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP A BIT AND SENDS A LOBE OF ENERGY A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE STALLED OUT/WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURROUNDING STATES STARTS TAKES ON
MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. NONETHELESS...PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BY THIS TIME...THE "MAIN EVENT" SHOULD BE
OVER WITH...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LESS-THAN-LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW
STILL JUST FINALLY START PASSING OVER THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SMALL 20-30 POPS
LINGER ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA...IN ALL REALITY MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME. UNLESS THINGS SLOW DOWN
NOTICEABLY...THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD START DEPARTING THE
LOCAL AREA AROUND WED NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD IN ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
NOW MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SHIFTING INTO FAR
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A BREAK SOUTH AND WEST WAS
BEING REALIZED IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH NOW ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 25KT.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION/PRESSURE
RISES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY
WAS LOCATED NEAR BEACH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE NAM/RAP JAMESTOWN SOUNDING SHOWS
AN AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AND LIFT COINCIDING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS...RISING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. THUS LOW LEVEL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WAS THE TREND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD...WEATHER SETUP FOR MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ARE A BIT CONCERNING. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION...BUT A STRONG/DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A DECENT AREA OF
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN SNOW WEST...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST. EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAY SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW (MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS) AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS
FOR POSSIBLE MESSAGING THIS AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY.
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXPECTS THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEAR GARRISON
AT MID MORNING TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW AND THEN SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS /AS
THAT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING RADAR TRENDS WELL/...BUT DID
HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY A BIT
LONGER THAN THE HRRR ALONE WOULD SUGGEST BASED ON UPSTREAM SHOWERS
IN SD AS OF 1445 UTC. THAT SAID...WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES MODELED
IN GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IMPLY BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT VERY
WELL COULD PRODUCE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES 17-23 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM CROSBY
TO TIOGA IN FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH HAVE BEEN MIXING
DOWN FROM THE STRONG 850MB LEVEL DUE TO SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 7 AM. WILL HANDLE THIS SMALL
AREA WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND COVERS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND. UPDATED LATEST OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVED EARLIER THIS NIGHT. THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN BUT STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF 35 TO 50
MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE
THESE ISOLATED REPORTS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...BUT DID
ADD AN AREA OF 30 TO 45 MPH WINS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING THE WEST
RIVER AREA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI AND ACROSS TEH NORTHWEST. WITH
TIME THIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEH JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE
MAIN PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVER WEATHER WILL BE LOW TODAY BUT GUSTY WINDS
AGAIN COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ISSUE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE H850
LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINS STRONG ABOVE 40 KTS FOR THE MORNING.
TEH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINES TO TEH EAST
TONIGHT WITH A BIT IF SNOW MIXING INTO TEH PICTURE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SOME SNOW SATURDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX INTO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
DISAPPEAR BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF AND FORMS A REX BLOCK BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE
BLOCK WILL BRING DRY WEATHER NORTH WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK MILDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE REX BLOCK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND
AT MIDDAY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AND BEGIN LOWERING BY EVENING.
WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EVENING AND SPREAD WESTWARD. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW
FAR WEST THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD AND WHAT FORM IT
WILL TAKE...WITH WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON ITS WEST FLANK AFTER 09 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
UPDATE...
AT 10 AM CDT AROUND THE REGION SHOWERS ARE ONGOING PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALOFT
OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...RISING QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS
SUCH HAVE INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE UNDER PERFORMED ON HIGHS YESTERDAY. POPS ALSO
REQUIRED ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AT SOME LOCALES FOR BOTH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS AFTER NOON.
THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE PAST FEW
DAYS BUT FEEL LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND COME TO AN END TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FEATURE FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
ZDM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OUT WEST
STALLING THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT MID-WEEK.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE. YET...THE GFS INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE RECEIVING THE SAME ABOUT OF RAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DOESN/T HAVE ANYTHING IN NORTHERN
TENNESSEE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOVING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-DAY AND INTO SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...YET ALL OTHER MODELS END THE PRECIPITATION. SO RAISED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF THE MID- SOUTH. NOT COMPLETELY SURE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT WHOLE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
AS THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, STARTING SATURDAY. YET
THERE WILL STILL BE CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE DOESN/T MOVE MUCH IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE
WEEK...THIS IS IN PART TO A REX BLOCK /UPPER HIGH NORTH OF UPPER
LOW/ SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH TYPICALLY STALLS THE
UPPER LEVELS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN AT LEAST FOR A SHORT
TIME.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS HOLDS THROUGH TILL WEDNESDAY. THE REX BLOCK
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS LOW MOVES EAST THE MORE OF THE
MID-SOUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT COOL
TODAY...BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND GETTING CLOSE TO 80.
TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR ALTITUDE CLOUD BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY THAN THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND
HRRR SUGGESTS. EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR TO PERSIST NEAR AREAS OF
RAIN OVER NORTH MS INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF VFR FOR THE
MEMPHIS INBOUND PUSH. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE WINDS FOR THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD APPEAR TOO STRONG BY SEVERAL KNOTS AND HAVE MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED NAM GUIDANCE WINDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT-SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF AS IT FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AOA 19Z
THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN TEMPS BEING CAPABLE OF WARMING INTO THE 70S
WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S. THE UA TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEMAND
OUR ATTENTION WAS NOTED ACROSS FAR NWRN AZ AND HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF
CLOSING OFF PER 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS STILL PROGGED TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILST TRANSLATING ESE TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM
DRAWING NEAR...SFC LEE TROUGHING DEEPENED AS WELL RESULTING IN
BREEZY SERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA /20-25 MPH SUSTAINED/
WHICH HAS AIDED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S.
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER IS
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S NOTED
ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO...THUS MATERIALIZING THE DRYLINE. JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE ARE WHAT MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUN ITERATIONS. THE RAP
SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE THUS SUGGESTING IT ALSO HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE...WHICH IS PUSHING THE DRYLINE ONTO THE FAR WRN ZONES
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE RETREATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
AS SUCH...IT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHICH MODEL BEST REPRESENTS WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
WILL ARISE IS THE PRESSING QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS
RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS COMMENCING AT NOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND POINTS NWRD...WHICH MORE OR LESS HAS OCCURRED...BUT
RADAR ECHOES WERE LIGHT AND THE ACTIVITY WAS ELEVATED /NO PRECIP
REACHED THE GROUND/. THE HRRR...NAM AND RAP SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED CI
ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH PLAINS AT 20Z/21Z...CLOSE TO
THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE /WITH THE CAP ERODING BY THEN/.
THE LATTER SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AS
STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS /WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE/.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE FEATURES...AS
WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONSISTING OF A 70-80 KT 250 MB LEFT
EXIT JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SBC OF 1500-2500 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS.
THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL TORNADOES AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
HOURS...LCL/S DROP TO AOA 4000FT AGL WHILST HELICITY INCREASES AND
HODOGRAPHS SHOW THAT CLASSIC VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY DECLINE BUT A CONTINUAL SFC SERLY
FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWATS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WELL AS A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSEVERE. AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE
MERIDIONAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND A 70 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK PUSHES OUT ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS STORMS WILL RE-GENERATE.
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCES OF RENEWED PRECIP TO BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SURGES TO NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE COULD BE OVERDONE AND MAY
NOT BE AS FAR EAST AS SUGGESTED...SO THE SOUTH PLAINS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE WOODS JUST YET. DO AGREE HOWEVER THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
AXIS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP /60S AND 70S/. /29
.LONG TERM...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CUTOFF VICINITY OF THE FOUR-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN THIS
CYCLE IS FOR MORE APPARENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD PUSH THE DRY-LINE OFF TO
THE EAST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WE HAD BEEN EXPECTING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LATCHED ON SHIFTING MOISTURE AXIS A BIT
QUICKER EAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE A DEEP CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO SEEMS LACKING OR IMMATURE AT BEST
AT LEAST IMPACTING OUR SPECIFIC AREA. STILL...A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND GIVE PERHAPS OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE
COORDINATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT APPEAR A
LITTLE GENEROUS ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT ALLOWS FOR WIGGLE ROOM FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL EXPECTED RAIN
TOTALS HAVE DROPPED A BIT...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS HEAVIER TOTALS AND THE MOST CURRENT
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO ALLOW ANOTHER LOOK OR TWO BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE. IT REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE TYPES
OF LOWS FIT PAST ANALOGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FAVORING THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ALSO WILL STILL OFFER AT LEAST BRIEF SEVERE
POTENTIAL THOUGH AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
QUICKLY USED UP.
A WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR
THE FRONT TO LIFT THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATE
ADEQUATE FOR CHANCE CATEGORY. UPPER HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPRESSED WITH
COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT.
THUNDER CHANCES BECOME A BIT TRICKIER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE
OLD UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING EAST AND HEIGHTS REBUILDING. SHOWER
CHANCES SHOW A SLOW DECLINE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND NOT SHOWING MUCH TO LATCH
ONTO YET. /05RMCQUEEN
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHARPENING UP NEAR THE TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS ERN NM VERSUS 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FA.
A FEW SITES IN ERN NM HAVE TICKED OFF A FEW RED FLAG MINUTES AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTH..THOUGH THE BOUNDARY STILL NEEDS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND 20-FOOT SOUTHEAST ARE INDEED
BREEZY /20-25 MPH/...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AND EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF.
TOMORROW...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE TO NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT...FILTERING IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH 20-FOOT SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. HOWEVER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL...CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL COULD AID TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. /29
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CURRENTLY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS SPLIT
INTO TWO. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MOVEMENT WITH OUR UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS. MOST RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS SMALL CHANCE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES WEAK LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY...LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAPPING VERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CHANCE
THAT AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL REMAINING JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCES FOR
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST ROUND OF POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA OF FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR. THE CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LONG AND SKINNY WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT.
THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT
OF WINDS...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST COMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE DRY...BUT STILL
SHOWS SOME RAIN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS WET
SOLUTION RUN AFTER RUN AND THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A MCV
MODELED IN THE 850 MB LAYER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV ON MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKER FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT A SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MESOSCALE EVENT...THIS SOLUTION NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING ITS VERY WET
SOLUTION WHICH DOES GIVE SOME CREDIT TO IT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TO 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY
RECEIVE 7-10 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SOLUTION. THE FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AS MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS
BEGIN TO PICK UP THE EVENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. AM NOT
ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 77 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 78 68 74 67 / 10 30 30 80 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 69 76 68 / 10 40 30 80 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 74 65 73 64 / 10 40 40 80 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 81 66 81 65 / 20 30 50 60 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 67 74 66 / 10 30 40 80 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 77 69 77 67 / 10 40 40 80 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 68 74 66 / 10 30 30 80 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 70 75 69 / 10 30 30 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 77 68 76 68 / 10 40 40 80 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 69 77 69 / 10 30 30 80 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY