Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/14/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER BACK
TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED COLD CORE SHORTWAVE HAS NOW EJECTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FEEDING INTO
THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDING INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN ARIZONA.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DEFORMATION...MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND MINOR INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEARING 500 J/KG) HAVE
SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WHILE STEERING FLOW AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS PROPAGATING INTO
PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY...VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL MIXING OF DRY
AIR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT MORE HOSTILE
TOWARDS MAINTAINING CONVECTION DIRECTED SOUTH DOWN THE I-17 CORRIDOR.
A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS EVOLUTION KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DAMPENED WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAY IN A 573-
579DM RANGE. FULL INSOLATION WILL CREATE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WHILE MODEL H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOWARDS 16-19C RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH RECENT
MODEL OUTPUT YIELDING BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PEAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES AMONG
ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUND WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MUCH LESS AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. ONE
MEASURE OF CONSISTENCY IS THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING.
THE LARGEST IMPACT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. OPERATIONAL GFS
WIND ANOMALIES ARE TOWARDS THE STRONGER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD
ENVELOPE (NEAR 40KT AT H8)...HOWEVER EVEN THE NAEFS AVERAGE V-WIND
H8-H7 ANOMALIES LIE TOWARDS THE SEASONALLY EXTREME THRESHOLD.
THUS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO START MENTIONING BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
WHILE TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO HAVE TRIMMED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TOWARDS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBSTANTIAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MEMBERS MORE RAPIDLY EJECTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS LINGER A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALBEIT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT
DISPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD THAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TO PRETTY MUCH CLEAR ALL
REMAINING CLOUDS BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...BUT WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING
LATER INTO THE EVENING THEN USUAL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. VERY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 AM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED SMALL COLD CORE WAVE WAS EJECTING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WHILE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE
FEEDING INTO THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDS INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN
ARIZONA. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA SAMPLED UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 MEASURE OF -21C FALLING WELL BELOW THE LOWEST 10TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY) WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC PORTION
OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...WEAK
DEFORMATION...AND MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW A DISTINCT LIMITING NORTHWARD
EXTENT TO ASCENT FIELDS WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS CUTTING OFF
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY.
THEREFORE WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS/STORMS INTO ONLY THE EASTERN PARTS
OF SRN GILA COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A BLEND OF HRRR AND
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
EVOLUTION. OTHERWISE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFINE
CLOUD COVER AND HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST
THINKING REMAIN ON TRACK TODAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/340 AM MST TUE APR 12 2016/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WEAK RIDGING WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
500MB HEIGHTS PERSISTING IN THE 573-579DM RANGE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THIS TIME
FRAME...SO WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM UP...MODEL 850MB TEMPS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE
OF ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES INTO THE 17-20C RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO PEAKS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME... THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE 12.06 GFS NOW FASTER
PLACING A 549DM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE 12.00 ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST ARRIVING WITH
A 550DM CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
BEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING. BLENDED APPROACH TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO BE
EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRICKLE DOWN WITH EACH
MODEL RUN...SO HAVE TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 80 MILES EAST OF
THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT AGAIN WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
FOR SOME FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES RISING FROM 6K TO 8K FT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
KIPL/KBLH. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS....A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER...OUR REGION
BASKED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.
EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NEARLY
ZERO. BUT THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING OVERNIGHT. BOTH SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
BAY BY 2 AM. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 4 AM THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY. BECAUSE THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH BAY.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ALL
MODEL DATA INDICATE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST
TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO DEGREES C IN THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN BY MIDDAY TO OFFSET
THIS COOL AIRMASS TO SOME EXTENT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY BEGIN TO WARM THE AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA...BUT ALSO TURN THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY AND BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WARMING ON FRIDAY WILL
BE MORE MODEST. THE WARMING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INLAND OVER CA AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY...AT BOTH INLAND
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST AND SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND
1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REACH 18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 24 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EASE BY 0600Z.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND
1500Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 18 KT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BY 0400Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:59 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
COAST. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND PEAK ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS....TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CLOUDY ONE WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WAS SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH IS SLIDING A BOUNDARY
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FRONT MAY PUSH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRATUS CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MAY ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAM
INTERACTING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF OF ALASKA LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPINNING OFF A SECONDARY LOW WHICH WILL ENTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...SLIDING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING
US WITH A WARM UP AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL AND NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:53 PM PDT MONDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOWER LEVEL COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDING S-SE OVER THE AREA INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL
MOIST AIR. THE 00Z NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTING DECENT
925 MB LEVEL COOLING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5
CELSIUS AREA-WIDE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SPRINKLES OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL AND HIGHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A WEAK RIDGE OVER NORCAL. PARTIAL CLEARING RETURNS TUESDAY
WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MOVING BACK TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY EVENING PER THE LATEST WRF MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SW-W TONIGHT BECOMING W WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. VFR/MVFR PERSISTS
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TUE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A SPRINKLE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PDT MONDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING THIS WEEK. AN
ENERGETIC NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 4 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
942 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.Synopsis...
Scattered showers are possible across the mountains and northern
Sacramento Valley through early Wednesday. A colder system will
bring rain and snow to the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.Discussion...
Scattered showers are continuing along the northern coastal range
with isolated showers from around Blue Canyon northward over the
Sierra Nevada. The HRRR model indicates showers continuing in the
same general areas overnight other than some showers spreading
over a greater portion of Shasta County.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
continue to provide enough moisture and instability to bring some
showers to all the mountain areas and the north end of the
valley.
A colder low pressure system will begin to move into the northern
end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall below
major pass levels with this system and result in travel impacts.
Snow levels should fall on Thursday to between 4000 to 5000 feet.
The NAM this evening has lower precipitation amounts than the
earlier model run with around a tenth of an inch around Sacramento
up to a half an inch at Redding. The mountains also are indicating
less output with around a quarter inch at Blue Canyon to a half
inch over the northern mountains. Unstable air moving in Thursday
morning may generate some thunderstorms in the interior. the GFS
has slightly higher amounts for the valley with a quarter to an
inch of rainfall in the mountains.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Medium range models in general agreement in dropping closed upper
low from NV/UT into the Desert SW on Fri as the Ern Pac upper ridge
nears the W Coast. Nly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal with
lingering flurries possible over the Sierra Crest. These digging
systems create breezy/windy N to E winds over interior Norcal and
should continue into Sat as the ridge shifts inland and pressures
rise over the Pac NW/Great Basin. Winds slacken on Sun as the ridge
shifts over NorCal. Some modeling differences on Mon as the GFS
is faster in breaking down or shifting the ridge Ewd than the GEM/
ECMWF...and at this point...leaning toward the slower solutions.
Temps warm from near to slightly below normal on Fri to 10 to 18
degrees above normal Sat thru Mon with Sun/Mon the warmest days.
Max temps expected to climb well into the 80s in the Valley and
60s/70s in the foothill/mtns. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday across
Valley TAF sites. Local MVFR/IFR conditions continue in the
foothills and mountains with showers and fog through Tuesday.
Light south winds will remain below 10 kts across the Valley.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
936 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D AND MSAS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING
A WEAK LOW WAS WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST (AROUND 90 NM
OFFSHORE FROM SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH). THE 18Z NAM AND
HIGH-RES HRRR INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MEANDER SSW OVERNITE
WHICH LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE IN PLACE.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS NE FL TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NE FL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND OVERNITE. THERE MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WEDGE IN
PLACE WITH SHARP COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST SPREADING INLAND TONIGHT. EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING
STRATUS TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT MOST TAF SITES.
ALSO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE...SO
SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THERE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS AND SURF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 63 53 64 / 40 60 60 50
SSI 62 64 59 68 / 40 70 70 70
JAX 63 71 59 75 / 60 60 60 60
SGJ 65 75 64 78 / 60 60 60 60
GNV 64 78 59 78 / 60 50 40 60
OCF 64 81 63 80 / 50 40 30 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH
FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PP/JDS/AW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY GENERATED CONVECTION WAS DROPPING
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THESE CELLS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AFTER MOVING WELL AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...SO THINK THE CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY STAY INLAND...BUT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS STILL
EXISTS FROM SOUTH BREVARD SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A VORT MAX...THAT HAS
BEEN LUMBERING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
WAS STARTING TO PUSH INLAND FROM APALACHEE BAY. CLOUD TOPS HAD BEEN
WARMING AND AND LIGHTNING DIMINISHING...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTION
REINVIGORATING...WILL NEED TO BE SHOWN SOME RESPECT. SO PLAN TO
RETAIN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A
LITTLE ADDED LIFT IN THE NORTH SO WILL ALSO KEEP SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDER THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FROM KISM-KMCO SHOULD STAY WEST OF KMLB-KSUA THROUGH LATE EVENING
BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR
AS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT...MAINLY KISM-KMLB NORTHWARD.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO-
KTIX. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE MOIST ON THU SO EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE EARLIER...CLOSE TO 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO
THERE WILL BE NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS. MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OFFSHORE FROM ABOUT THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. ALSO EXPECT A CHANCE OF STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE COAST.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN EDGING CLOSE TO THE CSRA.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CSRA IS
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST SPC HRRR DISPLAYED
RAIN REACHING THE SAVANNAH RIVER TOWARDS SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO POPS SINCE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE
MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...AND THE SOUTHEAST
IN MID-LEVELS. THICKER MI-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT AGS/DNL DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR
CONDITION AT AGS/DNL...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
TAFS. ALL OTHER SITES CONTINUE VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF AGS...DNL...AND OGB THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
827 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 0.90" IN THE NORTH TO 1.25" ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. AT A
MINIMUM THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVER SOUTHERN SC SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS FARTHER NORTH SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH SOUTHERN SC ZONES. OVERALL WE BELIEVE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY EXPANDING
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC
AND HRRR ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND WE
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DROP
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
PERSISTENT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED WITHIN
A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE...ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH
PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH...AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED POOL OF VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POPS RAMP
TO AROUND 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
PROVE TO BE CONSERVATIVE.
THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH/DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LINGERING
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 AND ARE GRADUATED THROUGH CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR NORTH. AGAIN...THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE CONSERVATIVE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE PROBABILITY FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD INCREASE AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50
INCH.
FRIDAY COULD REMAIN WET AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LUMBERS ACROSS THE
REGION. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM LIKELY SOUTH OF THE TRI-COUNTY TO
CHANCE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY. PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCH COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE REGION...DISRUPTING THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF HIGHER PWATS/SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND/NORTH AND 50S ELSEWHERE WILL BE COMMON.
FRIDAY...A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS COULD STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60F.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO RETREAT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH...SO POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PACE
OF THIS SCENARIO AND IN THE LATEST POP FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ATLANTIC LOW
PRESSURE AND ADVANCE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST/AWAY FROM THE REGION AS
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A DRYING/MODEST
WARMING TREND AS INDICATED BY DECREASING POPS AND TEMPS RECOVERING
TO AROUND 70F. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE PACE OF IMPROVEMENT
REMAINS LOW...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
COULD LINGER OVER A LARGER AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO DRIER/MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 80F WILL
BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM THE BEACHES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD THOUGH INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA IS EXPECTED TO BRING BACK MVFR
CEILINGS AT KSAV LATE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING. AT KCHS...A DEEPER DRY LAYER MAY KEEP CEILINGS
JUST ABOVE 3000 FT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO WE ARE SHOWING A VFR
FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN...WE SIMPLY
MAINTAINED A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AT KSAV BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KSAV THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCHS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
WHILE SMALL VARIATIONS IN THE GRADIENT WILL IMPACT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE
HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
WELL/MIXED MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. GALES
COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY WATCHES AT THIS
TIME.
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND LARGE NE
SWELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH EROSION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE SALT WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF THIS
EVENT WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TIDAL DEPARTURE TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
PART. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...AND THE SOUTHEAST
IN MID-LEVELS. THICKER MI-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT AGS/DNL DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR
CONDITION AT AGS/DNL...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
TAFS. ALL OTHER SITES CONTINUE VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF AGS...DNL...AND OGB THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
659 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION...WHICH FORMED ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST SPC HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION SHOULD END 02Z-04Z. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING. N/NE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED AHEAD
OF IT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR
RATHER DRY AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND ESPECIALLY THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS CLOUD COVER...TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CSRA.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CSRA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY...FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS AN OMEGA BLOCK KEEPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. DEEPENING MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE OMEGA BLOCK ERODING AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW
BASICALLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. EITHER WAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SATELLITE INDICATING CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM
WEST TO EAST. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAGS AND KDNL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER SO FAR
AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR MEANINGFUL RAINS TO DEVELOP. DESPITE
STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET, THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT IS QUICKLY EATING AWAY AT THE
RIBBON OF MOISTURE THAT IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. SOME TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED TO TAKE CURRENT TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT.
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXITS THE AREA AND A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PROPAGATES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COMPLETE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-26 TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE--WARMEST ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY, A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. THE RISK FOR DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT WITH RAP AND NAM12 POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THERE ARE VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS ON LOCATION AND
INTENSITY...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS IS THE EASY PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE GULF STATES...BUT
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE NATURE OF THIS ZONE AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT WILL TRANSLATE INTO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PERIOD
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BUT POSSIBILITIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND TO
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS THAN THE FORECAST PAINTS DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH INFLUENCE THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXERTS ON OUR FORECAST
AREA. GEORGIA ZONES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY TO THE ZONE AND PROGNOSED HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR GREATER COMPARED TO PWATS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.
ADDITIONALLY...A NOSE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY SUCCEED IN
INFILTRATING SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...ASSISTING IN LIMITING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S...THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY NEAREST THE COAST...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS...THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF SHOWING POPS
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND INCREASING TOWARDS
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PUSHING AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION...TRANSLATING TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND. THE PACE OF THIS DRYING/WARMING TREND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AND COULD REMAIN SLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S/LOWER 80F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY
WEAK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HI-RES
MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY BRINGING SUB-1KFT CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
IN LOWER CEILINGS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SPEEDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS, INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH REACHING AS HIGH AS 2-4 FT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. THE WORSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE...USHERING
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ374. AT
THIS TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY
14-16Z FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND AMZ350
BEGINNING 9-10Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXTEND TO WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO
BEACH DURING THE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
DETERMINING APPROPRIATE END TIMES FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INHERENT WITH THIS WEDGE-TYPE PATTERN. FOR NOW...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR EXPIRES AT THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY
AND FOR OTHER NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE LINGERING
ELEVATED SEA CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN EVEN IF WINDS SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS PROBABLE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...THOUGH THE EXTENDED NATURE
OF THIS EVENT NECESSITATES CONTINUAL MONITORING OF TIDE TRENDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST/CEB/JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS CLEARED THE COAST. THERE LOOKS
TO BE SEVERAL HOURS OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWER BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE 250 HPA JET PROPAGATES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TIMED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
AND REACHING THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REDEVELOP AS MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN FORM AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA.
POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 60-70 PERCENT UNTIL TRENDS BECOME A BIT
MORE APPARENT ON WHERE ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE. THE LATEST H3R,
NSSL-WRF AND RAP ALL INDICATE THE GREATER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS AREA BASED ON GOES-E
VISIBLE AND MODEL DERIVED SATELLITE DATA. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S IN
THE DARIEN-LUDOWICI- SAVANNAH CORRIDOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS ASSESSED TO BE LOW GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY PROFILES,
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...LIKELY
GUSTING OVER 20 MPH NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO LATE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES COULD
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH
LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 50S MOST OTHER AREAS...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND FAR
SOUTH.
THIS PERIOD STILL INCLUDES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DUE TO A COMPLEX/BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN AND AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. AN UPPER LOW AND/OR UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT WILL BECOME TRAPPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...
SUPPORTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH.
PRIMARY QUESTIONS INCLUDE WHETHER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSION OF SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND IF SO HOW FAR
NORTH WILL DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE EXPAND INTO OUR AREA. FURTHER...
UNCERTAINTY IS HEIGHTENED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND MOST PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS AN ATTEMPT TO SYNTHESIZE
VARYING 12/00 UTC SOLUTIONS WITHOUT INTRODUCING MAJOR FORECAST
CHANGES. IN GENERAL...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM HIGHEST SOUTH TO
LOWEST NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...LIMITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT BUT MAINTAINED POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH
ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH.
IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...A POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS PERIOD COULD BECOME MUCH WETTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO...MOST/ALL RAIN COULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES COULD BE
FORTHCOMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALSO OF NOTE...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PUSHING AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION...TRANSLATING TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND. THE PACE OF THIS DRYING/WARMING TREND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AND COULD REMAIN SLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S/LOWER 80F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASES AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
VFR CIGS SO WE KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY WEAK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
SOME DRIZZLE COULD LINGER AND CIGS WILL LOWER...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
LIFR LEVELS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST TOWARD EVENING
AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS 20-25 KT
ARE LIKELY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
IN LOWER CEILINGS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL 15 KT
OR LESS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA STARTING
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING AFTERWARD. SHOULD SEE GUSTS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS /25
KT/ OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS LATE.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE REGION
REMAINS LOCKED IN A WELL-MIXED/TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REGIME BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. DUE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WE RAISED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FOR AMZ350 STARTING AT 5 AM
WEDNESDAY...AND STARTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH DURING THE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GALES COULD
EVEN DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ374. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ARISES REGARDING THE END TIMES OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AT THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND FOR OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS AMZ374...EVEN IF WINDS
RELAX THIS WEEKEND SEAS WILL EASILY EXCEED 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...SO
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY/THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT/STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TIDES AND
SURF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF
THIS EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS POCATELLO ID
852 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS MORNING. WE DID TWEAK GRIDS
HERE AND THERE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM POCATELLO TO INL AND BACK TO THE
WEST. WE ALSO DECREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE IDAHO WASATCH AND THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH STORMS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
WEST THIS MORNING SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN MOISTURE UP INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA WHILE THE NORTHERN
BRANCH IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO OR/WA AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR BEGINS CONVECTION AROUND 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM/GFS KEEP ACTIVITY MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 9500-10000 FT SO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER TO 7500-8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW IS DRIVEN ONSHORE. AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS/NAM AT ODDS WITH
TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS DRIVES LOW INTO GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE NAM PUTS IT RIGHT OVER EAST IDAHO. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON THE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING LOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE GFS APPEARS
TO DIG THE LOW SE THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NRN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF DRIVES THE LOW EAST INTO NRN IDAHO
THURSDAY WHILE SECONDARY FOLLOW-ON ENERGY CARVES OUT A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER NRN ARIZONA WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER CNTRL
MONTANA. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF DRIVES THE ARIZONA LOW CENTER INTO
NE NEW MEXICO AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW STATES WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS THE LOW CAMPED OUT OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE STILL IMPACTING THE ERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY
LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD...THE GFS A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN EVENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE
RESULTING SOLUTIONS EITHER SPELL SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS OR
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT STOP THERE...BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SEND A PAC TROUGH EWRD
OVER THE RIDGE BUT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
OVER IDAHO WITH ATTENDING WIND AND SHOWERS WHEREAS THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WAVE EAST THROUGH CANADA LEAVING SE IDAHO DRY AND WARM. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THIS UNTIL THE MODELS FIND A
COMMON SOLUTION. HUSTON
AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST
AND NUMERICAL MODELS DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON FORCING CONVECTION IN
THAT REGION WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A
PASSING VORT FEATURE TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS. VCTY TSTMS ARE A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH VFR BKN CIGS. MIGHT SEE MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS IF A
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL AND WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MODEL TIME-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE SE
HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
143 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
WEST THIS MORNING SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN MOISTURE UP INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA WHILE THE NORTHERN
BRANCH IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO OR/WA AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR BEGINS CONVECTION AROUND 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM/GFS KEEP ACTIVITY MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 9500-10000 FT SO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER TO 7500-8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW IS DRIVEN ONSHORE. AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS/NAM AT ODDS WITH
TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS DRIVES LOW INTO GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE NAM PUTS IT RIGHT OVER EAST IDAHO. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON THE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING LOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE GFS APPEARS
TO DIG THE LOW SE THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NRN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF DRIVES THE LOW EAST INTO NRN IDAHO
THURSDAY WHILE SECONDARY FOLLOW-ON ENERGY CARVES OUT A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER NRN ARIZONA WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER CNTRL
MONTANA. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF DRIVES THE ARIZONA LOW CENTER INTO
NE NEW MEXICO AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW STATES WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS THE LOW CAMPED OUT OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE STILL IMPACTING THE ERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY
LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD...THE GFS A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN EVENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE
RESULTING SOLUTIONS EITHER SPELL SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS OR
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT STOP THERE...BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SEND A PAC TROUGH EWRD
OVER THE RIDGE BUT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
OVER IDAHO WITH ATTENDING WIND AND SHOWERS WHEREAS THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WAVE EAST THROUGH CANADA LEAVING SE IDAHO DRY AND WARM. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THIS UNTIL THE MODELS FIND A
COMMON SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&
.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST
AND NUMERICAL MODELS DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON FORCING CONVECTION IN
THAT REGION WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A
PASSING VORT FEATURE TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS. VCTY TSTMS ARE A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH VFR BKN CIGS. MIGHT SEE MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS IF A
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL AND WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MODEL TIME-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE SE
HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. FULL SUNSHINE OVER
THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASED SW WINDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MORNING FOG OVER SW ZONES TO DISSIPATE. SOME TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS
FROM LATEST HOURLY TREND...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES W/ ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER
AREA. WINDS SSW 15-30 KTS...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
02Z-03Z WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Cancelled all fog/frost advisories and the freeze warning.
Temperatures are warming and fog is lifting.
UPDATE Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
VFR expected at prevail at GCK, DDC and HYS through Wednesday
morning. Scattered cirrus. Gusty south winds at 15-25 kts will
diminish around 00z and back more SE. Patchy fog possible near
GCK by 12z Wed, warranting a mention of VCFG. There is a low
probability of fog impacting aviation operations at GCK. Moisture
advection begins tonight, as shortwave passes south of SW KS.
Consensus of short term models suggests associated MVFR cigs in
stratus will remain limited to a LBL-P28 line starting around 10z,
with some potential for stratus to affect the DDC terminal for a
few hours after 12z Wed. SE winds 5-10 kts overnight, with S/SW
winds of 10-15 kts resuming around 15z Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 66 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. FULL SUNSHINE OVER
THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASED SW WINDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MORNING FOG OVER SW ZONES TO DISSIPATE. SOME TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS
FROM LATEST HOURLY TREND...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KGLD UNTIL NEAR
14Z...6SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MID MORNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 17 TO 22 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED AT KGLD. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND LOSE THEIR GUSTS NEAR SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
845 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Cancelled all fog/frost advisories and the freeze warning.
Temperatures are warming and fog is lifting.
UPDATE Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC
through daybreak as patchy fog continues to develop across
portions of southwest Kansas. A brief period of IFR vsbys cannot
be ruled out at KGCK. Additionally, pockets of low level stratus
will continue to develop within a southeasterly upslope flow
through mid morning producing possible MVFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be the general rule at all TAF
sites by early this afternoon. Light southerly winds will slowly
increase to around 15 to 25kt through this afternoon as a lee side
trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado. The
southerly winds will subside somewhat this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
The region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level
trough progressed eastward beyond the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over Minnesota and Iowa and
stretched southward across Kansas, resulting in light northeasterly
winds early this morning. The combination of light winds and clear
skies was resulting in good radiational cooling, which should cause
temperatures to plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s by sunrise. As
a result, a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am this morning.
Surface high pressure will shift east of the region through the day,
causing winds to shift to the south and southeast. This southerly
component to the wind combined with mostly sunny skies will allow
for seasonal conditions today with highs reaching into the low/mid
60s. Conditions will remain dry through the day with dewpoint
temperatures generally staying in the 20s, resulting in relative
humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range. In
general, winds should remain light enough to limit any fire weather
concerns across most of northeast and east central Kansas. However,
there will be some elevated fire danger concerns across north
central Kansas as this is where the drier conditions are expected
and winds may gust upwards of 20-25mph as a weak pressure gradient
begins to develop due to an advancing surface low. The region will
remain wedged between surface high pressure to the east and surface
low pressure to the west tonight, resulting in clear skies and light
southerly winds. These southerly winds will allow overnight
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows
in the mid/upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
An upper level low pressure trough will move slowly eastward across
the Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday before moving off
into the lower Mississippi Valley. Another upper level low in the
Gulf of Alaska this morning will move into the Pacific Northwest late
Wednesday then into the Rockies on Friday. The upper trough deepens
over the four corners region then progresses slowly eastward across
the Plains through early next week. The models continue to differ in
the eastward progression with the GFS slower than the ECMWF and CMC.
Will continue to favor a lean toward the non GFS solutions for the
forecast. By Friday the upper low will eject lead shortwave energy
into the Plains by late Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across north central Kansas. Precipitation chances
will gradually increase from west to east through the weekend and
expect periods of showers and thunderstorms off and on into early
next week. The slow eastward progression will lead to increasingly
deep moisture from the Gulf into the Plains. This will lead to
precipitable water values as high as 1.25 inches across eastern
Kansas by Monday. Could see some moderate rainfall across the area
which will help to alleviate the abnormally dry conditions that exist
across north central and northeast Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will shift from east to southeast this morning as surface
high pressure shifts east of the area. Winds should stay near or
below 12kts through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC
through daybreak as patchy fog continues to develop across
portions of southwest Kansas. A brief period of IFR vsbys cannot
be ruled out at KGCK. Additionally, pockets of low level stratus
will continue to develop within a southeasterly upslope flow
through mid morning producing possible MVFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be the general rule at all TAF
sites by early this afternoon. Light southerly winds will slowly
increase to around 15 to 25kt through this afternoon as a lee side
trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado. The
southerly winds will subside somewhat this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043>045-
063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-065-
066.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 14Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 03Z AS THE NIGHT TIME
INVERSION DEVELOPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated to issue a dense fog advisory...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Light winds early this morning will increase into the 10 to 15
knot range by mid day as a trough of low pressure at the surface
develops across eastern Colorado. A weak up slope flow combined
with the recent rainfall may give rise to some early morning
fog/stratus near and west of the GCK area. At this time RAP and
HRRR suggests the ceilings and visibilities at GCK early this
morning may briefly fall back into the MVFR category between 11z
and 13z Tuesday. Elsewhere VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043>045-
063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-065-
066.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CWA HAS
FINALLY GONE MSUNNY/SUNNY...WITH ONLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE STILL
RUNNING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THAT SITS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTHWARD FUNNELING MOISTURE ON ITS RETURN FLOW...MAINLY INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. WHERE ZONES HAVE GONE MORE TO THE SUNNY
SIDE..TEMPS HAVE REACHED NEAR FORECASTED NUMBERS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. THOSE LOCALES SEEING MCLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ARE ONLY
IN THE MID 40S AT BEST BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO WANE.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE
SOUTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EVENTUALLY A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING GOING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND FIELD
TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SSE REGIME TO MORE OF A SSW ONE...ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ENSUE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. AREAS ACROSS NE COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVE WAY TOWARDS
PCLDY CONDITIONS BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. NO PRECIP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR TEMPS...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BUT FOR MAINLY AREAS STILL AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70F. WITH GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE...EXPECTING WINDS TO BEGIN
HITTING THE 15-25 MPH RANGE AROUND 14Z-15Z...AND PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 14Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 03Z AS THE NIGHT TIME
INVERSION DEVELOPS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
At 00z Tuesday a 500 mb low was located over Baja California.
Further east across the central and southern Plains there was a
weaker upper level trough extended from eastern Kansas to
southwest Oklahoma. A west to northwest flow was evident at the
700 mb and 500 mb level over the Central and Northern Rockies. At
the surface earlier this evening an area of high pressure was
located across southwest and south central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Just what the doctor ordered. Widespread beneficial rainfall was
greeted across most of SW KS this morning. Much of the area
reported measurable rainfall, with the noted exception of the NE
zones. The rainfall winners were, far and away, Haskell and
Seward counties, where radar estimates near 4 inches have fallen
south of Sublette along U.S. Highway 83. An areal flood warning
was hoisted in this area, where deformation forcing axis continues
to pivot and slowly shrink. All rain will end by mid afternoon,
followed by rapid clearing from north to south this evening, as
surface high pressure ridge axis builds into SW KS. Expecting
strong radiational cooling tonight as sky clears and winds go
light and variable. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be
several degrees below normal, in the low to mid 30s. Eastern
counties will observe the coolest temperatures, at or just below
freezing for several hours, under the ridge axis near sunrise.
Today`s rainfall has added lots of moisture into the boundary
layer, making areas of frost and/or fog likely. Mentioned both
frost/fog in the grids. Return flow and south winds will help to
keep temperatures above freezing tonight across western zones.
Maintained the frost/freeze headlines as inherited.
Tuesday...Mostly sunny, dry, breezy and warmer. Return southerly
flow will be well established by mid morning, with south winds
averaging 15-25 mph. Afternoon temperatures not too far from
mid-April normals in the mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
...The potential is increasing for a widespread heavy rain event
across SW KS this weekend....
Wednesday...Mostly sunny and much warmer. Southern stream
shortwave passes SE of SW KS, with no impacts expected. Broad
ridging from the Desert SW will deliver highs in the mid 70s
with breezy south winds.
Thursday...The warmest day of the forecast period. Still dry, as
forcing for precipitation remains well west. Quite windy Thursday
afternoon, in response to strong leeside cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado. SE winds of 20-30 mph will be common with gusts near
45 mph. Lack of a SW`ly downslope component will keep afternoon
temperatures capped in the upper 70s to near 80.
Friday...Synoptic pattern becomes very blocky, with all models
unanimously depicting a strong omega block over North America.
This portends very well for a dry SW KS, as the strong closed low
near the Four Corners Friday afternoon will only very slowly inch
out toward SW KS over the upcoming weekend. As the upper trough
approaches and the upper high over the Great Lakes doesn`t budge,
moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will be well
established, strong and persistent. With slow synoptic movement,
several rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms are likely as various
vorticity maxima rotate through the southern plains. The first
round of scattered thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon and
evening, as the dryline activates. Although details are impossible
to determine this far out, all medium range models suggest severe
convection is possible Friday afternoon. Given the downstream
block, and the preference to the slower solutions, strongest jet
support will likely remain west of SW KS Friday. For this reason,
kept pops in the scattered (<50%) category.
Saturday and Sunday...Confidence is high SW KS will receive
several rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms, with significant
rainfall amounts likely. Although exact storm track and mesoscale
evolution will determine rain amounts, forecaster confidence is
high on rainfall occurring, and CR_init pop grids are in the
likely category even this far out. Temperatures will show a
cooling trend with clouds and rain. Initial estimate is primary
severe threat this weekend will be south and west of SW KS, but
this is preliminary, and this potential will be monitored
carefully through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Light winds early this morning will increase into the 10 to 15
knot range by mid day as a trough of low pressure at the surface
develops across eastern Colorado. A weak up slope flow combined
with the recent rainfall may give rise to some early morning
fog/stratus near and west of the GCK area. At this time RAP and
HRRR suggests the ceilings and visibilities at GCK early this
morning may briefly fall back into the MVFR category between 11z
and 13z Tuesday. Elsewhere VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 63 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 34 64 38 75 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 36 64 42 74 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 35 65 41 75 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 65 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 64 40 71 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-
043>045-063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
428 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
MULTI DAY RAIN EVENT IS SET TO UNFOLD THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING WE HAVE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS THE
STAGE FOR A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHER
HI RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THAT PLAYING OUT
BUT THEY DO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN
ISSUE AT ALL THE MAIN THREAT IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
OCCUR. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS...A
SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AND STALLED FRONT ALL POINT TO PRETTY DECENT
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WHICH MEANS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON TOMORROW AND THEY
ALSO HAVE THAT SAME OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WPC ALSO EXPECTS A SWATH OF 4
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SO WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS REACHING UP TO 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
FOR NOW WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ALTHOUGH IT WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WE
THINK THE GROUND CAN HANDLE A LITTLE BIT MORE RAINFALL BEFORE IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE...HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS EVENT AS
IT UNFOLDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BEING ISSUED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 13/MH
.LONG TERM...
BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT THESE RUNS SUGGEST THE WE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR STORM BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE BLOCK. TRENDING EXTENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. 13/MH
&&
.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND KHUM. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
ADVECTS IN ALOFT. OVERALL...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK RANGING FROM
2500 TO 4500 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...AFTER 06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PUSH CEILINGS BACK BELOW 500 FEET AT
MOST TERMINALS BY 09Z. THESE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW...AS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPS. /32/
&&
.MARINE...
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. BY FRI HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ERLY/ONSHORE FLOW LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCS OR
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE
PERSISTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN
TIDAL ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
.DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 70 58 75 / 70 100 60 50
BTR 62 73 61 76 / 80 100 60 60
ASD 63 73 62 75 / 80 100 60 70
MSY 66 74 64 75 / 80 100 60 70
GPT 64 71 63 72 / 80 100 60 70
PQL 62 73 61 73 / 70 100 60 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN AND WIND THE MAIN ITEMS FOR THIS TERM.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE W/THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STILL WELL BACK INTO QUEBEC.
RAIN HAS FILLED BACK IN OVER THE LAST 3 HRS W/SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS PER THE RADAR LOOP.
WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY W/PERIODS OF HEAVIER
BANDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT MOVING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NYS MOVING NE. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL UNDER THIS
ENHANCEMENT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 MODEL WERE
HANDLING THINGS WELL ATTM. STILL LOOKING FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND POSSIBLE ICE MOVEMENT. MILDER TEMPS IN THE
40S AND 50S WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT ICE MOVEMENT. MORE
ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER
ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION, ESPECIALLY THE
COAST. A LVL JET OF 55 KTS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL TO 45-50 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY
WASHINGTON COUNTY. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 C/KM COULD
ALLOW FROM STRONG WINDS. KEPT THE ADVISORY UP THROUGH 12 PM FOR
THE COAST. LESS WIND AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH TODAY.
TURNING COLDER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOWERS COME TO AN. DECIDED TO BACK AWAY FROM RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E BY THE LATE EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH AND WEST WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY STANDING
WATER WILL RE-FREEZE LATER TONIGHT. BLACK ICE IS A POSSIBILITY BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A STRONG 500H RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
TROUGH MAY BRING SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES WED NIGHT INTO
THU, BUT NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRES CENTERED IN
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z WED SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z FRI. A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WED MORNING WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SEASONABLE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR MANY, A MUCH AWAITED TASTE OF SPRING. A STRONG 500H RIDGE WITH
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580 DAM BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE WARMS AT ALL LEVELS FRI INTO SAT, AND SAT WILL LIKELY BE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH MANY INLAND AREAS TO GET
ABOVE 60 DEGREES SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG AND
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS COOLED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW ELECTED IN
COLLABORATION WITH WFO GRAY TO LEAVE THE DAY SHIFTS HIGH TEMPS
ALONE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
DROPS INTO NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY WITH A SHARPLY COOLER AIR MASS.
IT LIKELY REMAINS VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. TWEAKS THE DEW POINTS TO GO LOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND THAT
THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH WITH THE DEW POINTS IN THE SPRING
PRIOR TO GREEN-UP.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR TODAY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE AFTER W/THE
COLD FROPA. LLWS IS A THREAT FOR THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY FOR KBHB.
VFR FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT W/SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING W/THE
LLVL JET MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF BELOW SCA BY
LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SEAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWING 10-12 FT
AT THE PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SWELL COMPONENT IS EXPECTED
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. THE SCA COULD BE TRANSITIONED TO
HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL STAY UP AROUND 6 FT
OR SO W/THAT SWELL INTO LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM AND DRY AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN THE SFC WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PCT LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
LOW RH`S WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
THE WIND REGIME DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT IT MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A
FOOT OF SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN BASIN IF NOT MORE.
THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK AIDING IN FURTHER RUNOFF AND INCREASING
THE FLOWS, COULD ICE JAMS THAT EXIST UP ON THE ST. JOHN IN THE
VICINITY OF ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN TO DISLODGE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM.
IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THAT DESPITE THE COOLDOWN, RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK LEADING TO
INCREASED RIVER FLOWS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...HEWITT/CB
MARINE...HEWITT/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES...FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM
W TO E THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES AND LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS. AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME -SN TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND KIWD/KSAW MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
SMALL SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE WEST AND
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HRRR CAPES RISE TO AROUND 400J/KG OVER THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDESTORMS. ALL OF THIS LOOKS ON TRACK IN THE GOING FORECAST AND
WILL THUS NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY TO CLEAN UP BORDERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. ENERGY STREAMS INTO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AS FAR AS BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN DURING THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM STALLS A BIT AT THIS
POINT...PROGRESSING NO FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC DIGS SOUTH.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...FINALLY ALLOWING PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
ZONES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY MAKES HIGH TEMPS A BIT CHALLENGING. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF GFS WOULD ALLOW GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WARMUP...BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HAMPER WARMUP A IT. FASTER MOVEMENT OF ECMWF
WOULD CUT OFF DIURNAL HEATING MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY. CHOSE TO
PARE BACK TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY
SLOTTING ACROSS THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GILSTAD
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE COMING FOR OUR CWA LATER THIS
WEEK...BUT THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...AND EVOLUTION OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A VERY BLOCKED LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
TRACKS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...LEAVING US UNDER A
PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH UPSLOPING SFC TO MID LEVEL
FLOW. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST WHERE FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SE MT ALONG AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR. A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND SOME CANADIAN ADVECTION
WILL FORCE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR +2C BY FRIDAY...AND THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. BETTER
CHANCE OF ANY WET SNOWFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF PCPN WILL CONTINUE. MAIN ISSUE HERE IS THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD TO SEE AN INCH OR MORE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A
NUMBER THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PAST SEVERAL GEFS MEANS. COUPLE OTHER ITEMS TO KEEP IN MIND: THE
CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUNG LIVESTOCK...AND
SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ON N-E ASPECTS.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A
STRONG OMEGA BLOCK BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS LOW FLANKED BY STRONG RIDGES OVER THE PAC COAST AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH SUCH A
STAGNATING PATTERN THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN LOW IS
HIGHLY IN QUESTION...WITH POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SHOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL CONSENSUS
WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN SPLIT LOW TO BECOME DOMINANT BY THIS
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SO
WILL CONTINUE THE THEME WITH LOWERING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT A PV AXIS TO
OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHTER PCPN IN OUR CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS
WOULD ALSO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS RIDGING
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE PAC NW OVER OUR REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY WITH 60S
TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF KBIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS
OF THE CRAZY...BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/068 042/060 040/045 034/052 033/058 036/066
1/B 23/W 46/T 88/R 53/W 11/B 11/U
LVM 077 042/061 038/056 035/044 030/051 029/058 033/067
2/T 37/T 57/T 88/R 53/W 11/B 11/U
HDN 080 042/072 039/062 038/048 032/053 031/060 034/067
1/B 13/W 46/T 77/R 53/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 078 043/071 041/065 042/051 034/051 032/059 035/066
0/U 12/W 45/T 75/W 43/W 21/B 11/U
4BQ 079 041/071 041/069 042/054 034/049 032/058 034/065
0/U 12/W 45/T 55/W 44/W 22/W 11/B
BHK 076 040/073 041/069 043/054 033/048 030/056 032/062
0/U 12/W 44/T 65/T 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 075 040/071 040/064 039/048 032/049 030/058 032/064
2/W 22/W 36/T 65/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN CORN BELT. RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NWD INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA.
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
LED TO A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAINED FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. AS OF 3
AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 33 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW TO 43
AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL
BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM12 RUN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A POTENTIAL OF A HIGH BASED THUNDERSHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AS MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DISCOUNTED ATTM.
BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER OF
10K FT OR MORE WOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TO HIT THE
SURFACE. WILL GET THE WORD OUT TO OUR FIRE PARTNERS VIA THE FWF OF
THE POTENTIAL OF A CB OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR THE CB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES... FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THE SRLY WINDS WILL ONLY RECYCLE DRY AIR
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN DEW POINTS
IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA OF THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TDY AS THE WESTERN CWA
WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THUS LOWER
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE WEST...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE EAST. MINIMUM RH/S THIS
AFTERNOON BOTTOM OUT IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EAST.
ATTM TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG HIGHLIGHTS. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
IN THE EAST...TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST. LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND A WEAK CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTM...KEPT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT AND DIDN/T INTRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE POPS OR MENTION OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TIME SECTIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 10000 FT AGL...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS SPRINKLES FOR THE MOMENT. FOR
TONIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
WEST...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE RUNNING STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST... THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN COMMENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS... A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ECS GUIDANCE AND SPLITS THE VERY WARM MAV
AND THE RECENTLY TRENDING WARMER MET. WAS HESITANT TO RAISE HIGHS AS
TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE NOT CONSIDERABLY WARMER. WITH DECENT MIXING TO
AROUND 750HPA... BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS... MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS...
AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 20C PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL...
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SEEMED REASONABLE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
A LLJ DEVELOPING WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
REMOVED SCHC POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AS LIFT IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOR THURSDAY... DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMPS MUCH AS H85 TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE DIFFERENCES FROM WED ARE STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION... LIKELY FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY... AND A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER AROUND 800HPA. THICKER
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S AGAIN. TRIMMED POPS FROM KBBW-KANW AND EAST
AFTER 00Z AS MIXING RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FARTHER WEST. DID LEAVE POPS INTACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. THUNDER
INDICIES DONT LOOK TOO SHABBY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM...
MUCAPE OVER 1000J/KG... AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SLOWS TO A CRAWLING PACE. THE LOW THEN WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN... WITH
THE EURO PLACING IT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR THE AREA. DEW POINTS INCHING UP FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WITH DECENT COVERAGE OF 50+ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE NEAR RECORD PWAT VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION... GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
COLUMN AND STRONG LIFT WITH OMEGA NEAR -20US. OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING UP TO 700HPA... SO KEPT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. JET DYNAMICS IN
THE EURO ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA LIES IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100+KT 250HPA JET STREAK. GFS BRINGS THE JET STREAK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... BUT THE AREA WILL STILL EXPERIENCE
ABUNDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A STORM DEVELOPS...ONLY MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED DUE TO EVAPORATION IN
THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE GUSTY /TO 30KTS AT TIMES/ SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REACH 23 TO
30 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT MIN RH WILL FLIRT WITH THE MINIMUM RH
CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR ZONE 209. ATTM...MIN RH FCST WILL BE
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A RFW WITH THE AM PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE FIRE
DANGER IN THE HWO TDY AS EXTREME...BUT NOT CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN CORN BELT. RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NWD INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA.
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
LED TO A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAINED FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. AS OF 3
AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 33 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW TO 43
AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL
BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM12 RUN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A POTENTIAL OF A HIGH BASED THUNDERSHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AS MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DISCOUNTED ATTM.
BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER OF
10K FT OR MORE WOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TO HIT THE
SURFACE. WILL GET THE WORD OUT TO OUR FIRE PARTNERS VIA THE FWF OF
THE POTENTIAL OF A CB OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR THE CB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES... FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THE SRLY WINDS WILL ONLY RECYCLE DRY AIR
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN DEW POINTS
IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA OF THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TDY AS THE WESTERN CWA
WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THUS LOWER
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE WEST...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE EAST. MINIMUM RH/S THIS
AFTERNOON BOTTOM OUT IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EAST.
ATTM TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG HIGHLIGHTS. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
IN THE EAST...TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST. LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND A WEAK CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTM...KEPT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT AND DIDN/T INTRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE POPS OR MENTION OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TIME SECTIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 10000 FT AGL...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS SPRINKLES FOR THE MOMENT. FOR
TONIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
WEST...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE RUNNING STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST... THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN COMMENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS... A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ECS GUIDANCE AND SPLITS THE VERY WARM MAV
AND THE RECENTLY TRENDING WARMER MET. WAS HESITANT TO RAISE HIGHS AS
TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE NOT CONSIDERABLY WARMER. WITH DECENT MIXING TO
AROUND 750HPA... BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS... MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS...
AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 20C PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL...
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SEEMED REASONABLE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
A LLJ DEVELOPING WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
REMOVED SCHC POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AS LIFT IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOR THURSDAY... DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMPS MUCH AS H85 TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE DIFFERENCES FROM WED ARE STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION... LIKELY FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY... AND A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER AROUND 800HPA. THICKER
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S AGAIN. TRIMMED POPS FROM KBBW-KANW AND EAST
AFTER 00Z AS MIXING RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FARTHER WEST. DID LEAVE POPS INTACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. THUNDER
INDICIES DONT LOOK TOO SHABBY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM...
MUCAPE OVER 1000J/KG... AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SLOWS TO A CRAWLING PACE. THE LOW THEN WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN... WITH
THE EURO PLACING IT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR THE AREA. DEW POINTS INCHING UP FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WITH DECENT COVERAGE OF 50+ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE NEAR RECORD PWAT VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION... GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
COLUMN AND STRONG LIFT WITH OMEGA NEAR -20US. OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING UP TO 700HPA... SO KEPT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. JET DYNAMICS IN
THE EURO ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA LIES IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100+KT 250HPA JET STREAK. GFS BRINGS THE JET STREAK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... BUT THE AREA WILL STILL EXPERIENCE
ABUNDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO UNDER
10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REACH 23 TO
30 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT MIN RH WILL FLIRT WITH THE MINIMUM RH
CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR ZONE 209. ATTM...MIN RH FCST WILL BE
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A RFW WITH THE AM PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE FIRE
DANGER IN THE HWO TDY AS EXTREME...BUT NOT CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY AND DWPTS. DWPTS ARE
VERY LOW E OF HWY 281. CURRENT OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THE RAP MODEL
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE RAP HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW DWPTS.
THERE IS A PATCH OF ALTOCU W OF HWY 183 AND IT HAS RESULTED IN
QUITE A DISPARITY IN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT...
ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME...A RIDGE WAS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY
12Z/WED. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE OVER ALBERTA/SASK. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU 00Z-06Z TONIGHT BUT WITH NO NOTICEABLE WX.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE MID/UPR MS VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL
MIGRATE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA/CANADA
BY 12Z/WED. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS HERE ON THE PLAINS TODAY. THE
POLAR FRONT THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUNDAY WAS BANKED UP AGAINST THE
ROCKIES. THE PORTION MT/WY WILL MOVE E INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WARM
FRONT.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH A FEW ALTOCU POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. YOU CAN
PROBABLY ADD 10F TO YESTERDAY`S TEMPS. BECOMING WINDY W OF FROM
THE TRI-CITIES N AND W WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER TO THE S AND E.
TONIGHT: M/CLEAR.
MORE LATER...
.MID TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SUMMARIZING THIS 48-HOUR "MID TERM" PERIOD:
IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE`RE SAYING THIS AS DRY AS IT`S BEEN
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...BUT FOR FOLKS WANTING TO GET OUTDOOR
WORK/PROJECTS DONE WITHOUT A THREAT OF RAIN THEN YOU PROBABLY
SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT LOOMS WHAT APPEARS TO BE BY FAR OUR BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SOAKING PRECIPITATION THAT WE
HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
THIS). IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME STILL
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY "GUARANTEED" DRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP
WELL-ABOVE FREEZING. OF COURSE...WE`VE HEARD PLENTY OF
"COMPLAINTS" LATELY ABOUT THE WIND...AND UNFORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY
HAS TRENDED A BIT BREEZIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS SOLIDLY BREEZY-TO-WINDY OUT OF THE SOUTH. FORTUNATELY
THOUGH...IN A NICE CHANGE FROM RECENT/ONGOING CONDITIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE "JUST"
ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ABOVE 25
PERCENT BOTH WED/THURS AND THUS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
EVEN REACHING "NEAR-CRITICAL" CRITERIA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE
ARE NO ELEMENTS WORTHY OF INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID) DURING THESE MID-TERM PERIODS.
NOW GOING OVER EACH OF THESE 4 FORECAST PERIODS IN MORE DETAIL:
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: VERY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AS WE SIT IN A
PRONOUNCED MINIMUM IN UPPER FORCING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
JET BRANCHES. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO OUR WEST
IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA SHOULDN`T BE A FACTOR LOCALLY AT ALL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE. THANKS LARGELY TO
THESE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY BREEZES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD UP 5-10
DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT AND SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE HERE...AIMING LOWS 38-40 MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: FOR THOSE MONITORING WIND FORECASTS
CLOSELY...PLEASE NOTE THAT SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WERE RAISED ROUGHLY 5
MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND POSSIBLY NOT QUITE ENOUGH. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BROAD
RIDGING/WEAK FLOW ALOFT THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE...THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO
AVERAGE SUSTAINED VALUES GENERALLY 14-18 MPH/GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING A ROUGHLY 10 DEGREE RISE VERSUS TUESDAY
WITH MOST PLACES ATTAINING THE 73-77 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IT REMAINS DRY AS ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN WELL-OUTSIDE THE CWA. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...SOUTH BREEZES WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...BUT
THANKS TO A WARMER PRECEDING DAY AND SLOWLY-INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOW TEMPS WILL JUMP UP ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...HOLDING UP GENERALLY 47-50.
THURSDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY
DAY...BUT CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME
MORE EVIDENT TO OUR WEST AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SETS UP SHOP OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THANKS TO STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS ALONG A HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
OUR FORECAST MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CALL FOR SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH/GUSTS 25-35 MPH. NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS
VERY SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AIMING FOR MAINLY A 76-79 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THIS SECTION FOCUSES ONLY ON THE "LONG TERM" PERIOD (DAYS 4-7) FOR
WHICH THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL
BLEND WITH ONLY LIMITED MODIFICATION BY THE FORECASTER:
SUMMARIZING THIS 4-DAY PERIOD:
OF COURSE...THE DETAILS OF AMOUNTS/TIMING ARE FAR...FAR FROM
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
THAT WE WILL BE ENTERING BY FAR THE MOST PRONOUNCED WETTER WEATHER
PATTERN OF THE SPRING SEASON SO FAR. LITERALLY EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS WELL IN LATER FORECASTS)
CARRIES AT LEAST MODEST...IF NOT DOWNRIGHT "LIKELY" (60 PERCENT OR
HIGHER) CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS A LARGE-SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STALLS OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH AND TO OUR EAST SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NOW ALL THIS BEING SAID...IT`S OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO BE
RAINING NON-STOP FOR 4+ DAYS...AND IT`S DICEY-AT-BEST TO TRY
PINPOINTING THE OVERALL-HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
GIVEN THAT SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE/MESOSCALE DETAILS
SUCH AS THE EXACT TIMING OF SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES "BREAKING
OFF" OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ADDING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT THESE TYPES OF
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS OFTEN HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AS
THEY GET CLOSER...AND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT MAINLY ORIENTED SOUTH-
TO-NORTH (MERIDIONAL)...IT`S POSSIBLE (NOT FOR SURE) THAT THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY FRIDAY-SATURDAY) COULD
SEE MOST OF THE "ACTION" FOCUS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE SOLIDLY EAST OVER OUR CWA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME.
VERY PRELIMINARILY...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60+ PERCENT
"LIKELY") ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE FRIDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE
DEFAULT LONG TERM MULTI-MODEL BLEND SHIFTS THESE CHANCES AROUND A
BIT IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BRIEFLY
COMMENTING ON TEMPERATURES: HIGHS ARE AIMED MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
THESE DAYS WITH LOWS WELL UP INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S RANGE. IN
OTHER WORDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOST DEFINITELY WON`T BE A
CONCERN.
WILL FINISH BY ADDRESSING A FEW QUESTIONS MANY FOLKS MIGHT HAVE
ABOUT THE NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES:
1) JUST HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE TALKING? AGAIN...IT`S FOOLISH TO BUY
INTO RAW MODEL QPF VALUES "VERBATIM" AT THIS JUNCTURE...BUT
OFFICIAL WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERAL RANGE OF AT LEAST 1-3" CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. AGAIN...THIS IS A MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...AND SOME DAYS/NIGHTS WILL BE DRIER THAN OTHERS.
ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN HOW DRY IT`S BEEN
LATELY...IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR FROM ANY STEADIER/CONCENTRATED ZONES OF RAIN GIVEN THAT THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY "HARD" AND THAT LIMITED EARLY SPRING VEGETATIVE
GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT RUNOFF.
2) WILL THERE BE ONE OR MORE SEVERE STORM CHANCES? WELL...GIVEN
THAT IT`S APRIL AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON ONE OR MORE DAYS BETWEEN
FRIDAY-MONDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST AT THIS DAY 4-7 RANGE...MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS SEEM MORE INDICATIVE OF A LIMITED
CAPE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY MOIST/SATURATED PROFILES
AND FAIRLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...THIS JUST
SEEMS LIKE MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SETUP THAN A SEVERE
WEATHER ONE FOR NOW...BUT LATER MESOSCALE DETAILS COULD ALWAYS
DICTATE OTHERWISE. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL GENERALLY "DOWNPLAY" THE
THUNDERSTORM ASPECT BY USING "ISOLATED" THUNDER WORDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG CROSS WINDS TODAY ON RWY 13/31 AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A LITTLE ALTOCU AROUND 8K FT. LIGHT ESE
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. A FEW ALTOCU 8-10K FT. WINDS BECOME S AND INCREASE 20-30
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE EVE: VFR. A FEW ALTOCU AROUND 12K FT POSSIBLE. S WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS. MARGINAL LLWS POSSIBLE...BUT IT`S NOT IN
THE TAFS YET.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT
WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE
SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS
QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN.
THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE
FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN
CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL
RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE AVE.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW
PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST.
BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN
KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF
WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE
SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE
DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX
WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH
AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT
MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY TO 30 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F
TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH
THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND
OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z
WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH.
AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS WANING AS THE REMAINING RAIN IS DOING
THE SAME. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THAT AFTER A BREAK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND NEXT UPPER VORT APPROACH, THOUGH THE LATTER REALLY APPEARS
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHEREAS THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF OVER SC THE 12Z WRF HAS A MORE NORTHWARD
BIAS. MAY LOWER HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES SINCE SO FAR VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WE REMAIN IN
THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AREA-WIDE WILL NOT TRY TO SHOW MUCH OF A
DISTINCTION THOUGH THE VORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT MAY ARGUE FOR
THE WRF IDEA.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE...
COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING HEAVY.
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH 300 J/KG
AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO REACH NEAR 40 KT WHILE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 7 DEG C/KM AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE MID
LEVELS LATER TODAY. OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEALTHY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...10-12 MICROBARS/SECOND AND THIS MAY BE
SIGNALING LESSER RAINFALL OVERALL. IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.5
INCHES...BUT THE SURGE IS BRIEF. WILL RAMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOW A DECREASING TREND LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING
BRISK NE WINDS. BY WED MORNING...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THEN ONLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE
ARE FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY NEAR A HALF INCH AS ROBUST
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY AS COMPARED TO
MON...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
COOL NE SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...TAKING ON A WEDGE-
LIKE CONFIGURATION WITH TIME. MEANTIME...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...DRAPED TO OUR E
AND S. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO A DRIER CONSENSUS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING THE LAST TO COME
ABOARD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FIRST THING WED MORNING.
ON WED...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF GOOD MOISTURE DOES HANG ON IN THE
4-6 KFT LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ON THU...THERE MAY BE MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. COOL ADVECTION ON BRISK NE WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ALL THAT APRIL
LIKE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH MODELS FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT OVERALL FEATURES ARE SIMILAR. THE FOCUS STILL
REMAINS ON THE PESKY LOW OVER TENNESSEE WITH STRUNG OUT VORTICITY
RUNNING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE DISTANT NORTH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCP REACHING INTO THE AREA ON FRI WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT JUST SOUTH. WITH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WILL CARRY
SOME LOW END POPS BASICALLY ALONG COAST AND EAST OF I95. GFS HAS
BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MIX
DOWN TO ERODE ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TEND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
RIDGE AXIS HOLDING JUST WEST OF AREA KEEPING A DEEP N-NE FLOW
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN LOW
WELL OFF SHORE AND HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
COOLER WEATHER TO START WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE
DRY AIR WILL KEEP LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TRYING TO REACH TOWARD
70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS RAIN
IS GENERALLY FALLING FROM A VFR CLOUD CEILING BETWEEN 5 AND 9
THOUSAND FEET. MOISTURE COLLECTING NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD SEED
THE FORMATION OF LOWER STRATUS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 700-1500 FOOT RANGE
BECOMING MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ONE FINAL WAVE
OF SHOWERS...SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHORTLY AND WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DIPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL ARRIVE WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY. HOWEVER THE REAL SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR
SHOULDN`T ARRIVE UNTIL 04-05Z AT WHICH POINT SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12G19 FROM THE NORTH...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AT
THIS TIME. MAY SLOW THE SENSE OF TIMING WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONT
IF MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN SHOWING THIS. WRF SHOWS THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT PUSHING THROUGH 00-03Z BUT THE ACTUAL COOL SURGE AND WIND
INCREASE ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER. ANY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVE...SHIFTING
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO NE. A GOOD SURGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE
THE WATERS FROM N TO S WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT INTO THIS EVE...INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY....PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE AND DRAPED TO OUR S. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO NORTH AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WATERS. PERSISTENT STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS WANING AS THE REMAINING RAIN IS DOING
THE SAME. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THAT AFTER A BREAK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND NEXT UPPER VORT APPROACH, THOUGH THE LATTER REALLY APPEARS
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHEREAS THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF OVER SC THE 12Z WRF HAS A MORE NORTHWARD
BIAS. MAY LOWER HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES SINCE SO FAR VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WE REMAIN IN
THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AREA-WIDE WILL NOT TRY TO SHOW MUCH OF A
DISTINCTION THOUGH THE VORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT MAY ARGUE FOR
THE WRF IDEA.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE...
COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING HEAVY.
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH 300 J/KG
AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO REACH NEAR 40 KT WHILE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 7 DEG C/KM AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE MID
LEVELS LATER TODAY. OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEALTHY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...10-12 MICROBARS/SECOND AND THIS MAY BE
SIGNALING LESSER RAINFALL OVERALL. IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.5
INCHES...BUT THE SURGE IS BRIEF. WILL RAMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOW A DECREASING TREND LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING
BRISK NE WINDS. BY WED MORNING...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THEN ONLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE
ARE FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY NEAR A HALF INCH AS ROBUST
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY AS COMPARED TO
MON...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
COOL NE SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...TAKING ON A WEDGE-
LIKE CONFIGURATION WITH TIME. MEANTIME...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...DRAPED TO OUR E
AND S. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO A DRIER CONSENSUS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING THE LAST TO COME
ABOARD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FIRST THING WED MORNING.
ON WED...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF GOOD MOISTURE DOES HANG ON IN THE
4-6 KFT LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ON THU...THERE MAY BE MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. COOL ADVECTION ON BRISK NE WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ALL THAT APRIL
LIKE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH MODELS FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT OVERALL FEATURES ARE SIMILAR. THE FOCUS STILL
REMAINS ON THE PESKY LOW OVER TENNESSEE WITH STRUNG OUT VORTICITY
RUNNING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE DISTANT NORTH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCP REACHING INTO THE AREA ON FRI WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT JUST SOUTH. WITH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WILL CARRY
SOME LOW END POPS BASICALLY ALONG COAST AND EAST OF I95. GFS HAS
BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MIX
DOWN TO ERODE ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TEND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
RIDGE AXIS HOLDING JUST WEST OF AREA KEEPING A DEEP N-NE FLOW
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN LOW
WELL OFF SHORE AND HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
COOLER WEATHER TO START WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE
DRY AIR WILL KEEP LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TRYING TO REACH TOWARD
70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS
HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/BR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THOSE TERMINALS. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING EAST.
THERE COULD BE LESS PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MID-
MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. MVFR WILL BECOME INCREASING LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KLBT. COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR...TEMPO MVFR DUE TO PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ABATE...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR. WINDS WILL BE
VEERING FROM S-SW TO THE NW WITH THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL IMPROVE INITIALLY TO VFR AT KLBT/KFLO LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY
EVENING...IN THE LATE EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THINKING AT THIS TIME. MAY SLOW THE SENSE OF TIMING
WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONT IF MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN SHOWING THIS.
WRF SHOWS THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT PUSHING THROUGH 00-03Z BUT THE
ACTUAL COOL SURGE AND WIND INCREASE ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER. ANY TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVE...SHIFTING
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO NE. A GOOD SURGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE
THE WATERS FROM N TO S WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT INTO THIS EVE...INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY....PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE AND DRAPED TO OUR S. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO NORTH AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WATERS. PERSISTENT STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
846 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 0135
UTC AND A 9 MEMBER TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 22-00 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC
AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING
SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS
THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH
FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING
HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY
DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL
THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL
AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED
BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE
WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL
CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...AS OF 15Z SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN EVERY LOCATION
EXCEPT FOR EKN AND BKW. BASED ON THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS FIELD...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN AN
HOUR FOR THOSE SITES TO RISE TO VFR AS WELL AND ALL SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...AS OF 15Z SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN EVERY LOCATION
EXCEPT FOR EKN AND BKW. BASED ON THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS FIELD...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN AN
HOUR FOR THOSE SITES TO RISE TO VFR AS WELL AND ALL SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO CLEAR BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
940 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO CLEAR BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
644 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
350 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350AM THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM BUCKHANNON
TO LOGAN WV. RELIED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD
FRONT AND POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS
SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PKB AND HTS GOT BRIEF
IFR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL TRY TO TIME THIS OUT
TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HEADS EAST TODAY...AS DRIER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST
OF WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0530Z COLD FRONT IS THROUGH HTS...APPROACHING CRW AND CKB.
RELIED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND
POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONSENSUS KEEPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH GOING FORECAST...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR UPGRADE TO WARNING...OR CHANGES
TO THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY BY TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA THIS
PERIOD. THIS SPELLS DRY WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST.
LEANED LOW FOR LOWS AND A BIT HIGHER FOR HIGHS FOR LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES.
LOWS WED NT LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PKB AND HTS GOT BRIEF
IFR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL TRY TO TIME THIS OUT
TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG WORDING LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGION. HRRR AND SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS OCCURRENCE. WILL
NOT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT OBSERVATION
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET...LEADING
TO PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. TOWARD
SUNRISE...CHANCES FOR FOG INCREASE. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY ALMOST AREA-WIDE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY
STORMS MAY EXTEND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THE CUTOFF LOW VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE BACKED OF
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AS THE VARIOUS MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE SLOWER
IN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME THEREAFTER. THIS PROXIMITY WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AT LEAST.
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOTHING MAJOR IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 49 73 52 75 / 10 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 74 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 47 75 53 76 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 44 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 51 73 53 75 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEARING TREND ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
CKV ALREADY CLEAR...WITH CLEARING LINE VERY CLOSE TO BNA. LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS CSV EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN A FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT
POINT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................XXI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NASHVILLE AND WILL SLIP
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME, SO WILL
KEEP VCSH IN FOR BNA & CSV IN THE NEAR TERM. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
STAY AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA, BUT DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN WILL IMPROVE CIGS EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH VFR WX
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 40 69 52 69 / 10 0 10 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 64 38 67 49 67 / 10 0 10 20 30
CROSSVILLE 58 38 64 48 65 / 30 0 10 20 30
COLUMBIA 63 40 69 51 68 / 10 0 10 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 64 39 70 51 68 / 20 0 10 30 30
WAVERLY 64 39 67 51 68 / 10 0 10 30 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1259 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 AND MVFR WEST. A
TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING. EXPECT
VFR/MVFR MIXTURE DRG THE AFTN/EVENING ALONG WITH ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WL BE PSBL
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 DRG THE 00-06Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...ONLY TWO MAIN CHANGES. FIRST WAS TO INCLUDE FOG
OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...PATCHY WESTERN BRUSH AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS WELL AS COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG MOST INLAND AREAS. GFE
FORECAST MONITOR MAINLY IN THE GREEN SO TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
SEEM OK FOR NOW. SECOND CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND EXPECTED STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH RAIN CHANCES
LOOKING PROMISING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
ARE OUT. MARINE FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECAST...SO DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGES THERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS
BEFORE 12/06Z...AND LIKELY IFR AT KVCT WITH MVFR BR. CONDITIONS
THEN GO TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS FALLING TO BLO 1SM (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AT KALI AND KVCT AOB 12/08Z WITH BOUNDARY
APPROACHING AND 925 MB WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS. MAY HAVE TEMPO IFR BR
AT KCRP BEFORE 14Z TOO. AT KLRD...GENERALLY NE/ENE WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND THUS AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 12/06Z BUT BFR 12/12Z WITH MVFR BR TOO. CIGS IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR AFTER 15Z (MAYBE A BIT LATER AT KVCT IF FOG IS VERY
BAD). CIGS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR AT KVCT AND KCRP...BUT VFR AOA 12/18Z
AT KALI AND KLRD. DID MENTION VCSH AT EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH
VCTS AND PROB30 TSRA AT KLRD MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
WINDS START OFF NORTHEAST BUT LIKELY BECOMING MORE ENE DURING THE
DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 69 78 65 80 / 20 60 60 10 10
VICTORIA 80 65 75 60 79 / 20 60 70 10 10
LAREDO 85 69 83 64 86 / 30 60 30 10 10
ALICE 83 69 79 63 83 / 20 60 60 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 69 76 65 77 / 20 60 70 20 10
COTULLA 80 65 79 60 84 / 30 60 50 10 10
KINGSVILLE 83 69 80 64 82 / 20 60 60 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 70 77 67 77 / 20 60 60 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1040 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PAIRED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE AT
LEAST 6 C/KM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WAS MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AT 1930Z. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
LINGERED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BOTH THE 19Z HRRR AND 19Z RAP
INDICATED SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS. THERE WAS AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE
SHORT TERM. WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS DEPART OR
DISSIPATE TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT GET ALL THAT WARM IN THE
FIRST PLACE...COULD DROP LIKE A ROCK TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS KEPT MOISTURE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-10KFT OVERNIGHT SO
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO COLD. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED ON
THE RHI TIME SECTION.
EXPECT FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY...EXCEPT AT LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MOS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE MILD TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FCST H8 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY. WILL NEED TO SPEED UP THE PCPN
TIMING A BIT.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
FCSTS WILL NOT BE EASY DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H8 TEMPS
BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...WHICH
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG THE SHORE OF THE BAY OVERNIGHT.
JUST SOME BROKEN MIDDLE CLOUDS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. GOOD FLYING
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
851 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
PESKY PERSISTENT 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN WI KEEPING
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING. ALL THE MODELS
SHOW THIS BREAKING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD SPELL THE END OF
THE CLOUDS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS STEADY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST AS WELL...PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND SLOWLY WILL
BE REPLACED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS OF THE RAP AND NAM ARE
INDICATING MOSTLY DRY PROFILES ACROSS S WI TONIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER. SO...SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS S WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60 TO 65 F RANGE THANKS TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. 13.12Z GFS AND NAM 925 MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO THE 6 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S FURTHER INLAND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SELY SFC FLOW EACH DAY. MO
SUNNY DAYS AND MO CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S TO MID-UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FAST WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE BY LATE SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI SUN NT INTO MON WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL THEN DIG A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BE KEPT FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONGER NLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WI FOR TUE AND WED. MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SKIES LOOK TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO EASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
SOME LIGHT MARINE FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE COOLER LAKE TEMPERATURES
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF THIS LIGHT MARINE AREA FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
730 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PAIRED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE AT
LEAST 6 C/KM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WAS MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AT 1930Z. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
LINGERED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BOTH THE 19Z HRRR AND 19Z RAP
INDICATED SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS. THERE WAS AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE
SHORT TERM. WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS DEPART OR
DISSIPATE TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT GET ALL THAT WARM IN THE
FIRST PLACE...COULD DROP LIKE A ROCK TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS KEPT MOISTURE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-10KFT OVERNIGHT SO
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO COLD. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED ON
THE RHI TIME SECTION.
EXPECT FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY...EXCEPT AT LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MOS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE MILD TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FCST H8 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY. WILL NEED TO SPEED UP THE PCPN
TIMING A BIT.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
FCSTS WILL NOT BE EASY DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H8 TEMPS
BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...WHICH
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST
SOME MID CLOUDS AT TIME TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS....A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER...OUR REGION
BASKED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.
EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NEARLY
ZERO. BUT THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING OVERNIGHT. BOTH SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
BAY BY 2 AM. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SF BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 4 AM THURSDAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY. BECAUSE THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. MOST MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH BAY.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ALL
MODEL DATA INDICATE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST
TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO DEGREES C IN THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN BY MIDDAY TO OFFSET
THIS COOL AIRMASS TO SOME EXTENT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY BEGIN TO WARM THE AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA...BUT ALSO TURN THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY AND BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WARMING ON FRIDAY WILL
BE MORE MODEST. THE WARMING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INLAND OVER CA AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY...AT BOTH INLAND
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST AND SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS
HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND
1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND
1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:34 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON THURSDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS COOL
AIR PUSHES IN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT PEAKING ON THURSDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN EDGING CLOSE TO THE CSRA.
HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CSRA IS
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST SPC HRRR DISPLAYED
RAIN REACHING THE SAVANNAH RIVER TOWARDS SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO POPS SINCE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE
MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
REMAINS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES
WITH FEW SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL...HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
SHOWERS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 9
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z UP TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT AGS/DNL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PATCHY CLEAR SKY WAS
SEEN UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. JUST WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA CUMULUS CLOUDS/ISOLATED
STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WIND CONVERGENCE LINE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS WIND CONVERGENCE LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LATE TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING THE FOG WILL BE THICKEST. MOST
MODELS HAVE THE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A FEW MILES...ALTHOUGH A
FEW HAVE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT VISIBILITIES BELOW A
MILE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER DOES NOT GIVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THE VISIBILITY
WILL BE LESS THAN A MILE. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECLINING UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALLOWING THE
STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
NEAR THE STATE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOW END FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE TIED TO THE DRY LINE...SINCE ANY LIFT ALONG THE DRY
LINE QUICKLY DECLINES TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STILL BE ONGOING AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEYOND MONDAY AS THE LOW DETERIORATES.
WHILE RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH...COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER STILL SEEM LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FINALLY
RECEDES TO THE EAST. ON THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOUTH WINDS RETURNING AND THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND A STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. RAIN MAY STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL LOSS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT HEAVIER
RAIN RATES AND CONVECTION. PRIOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING
PROBLEMS...IF ANY...COULD BE AGGRAVATED BY FURTHER PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER FORECAST ITEM TO MONITOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
OVER EAST COLORADO. REMAIN HIGHLY SUSPECT OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS
A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAINS. ATMOSPHERIC COOLING IS
LIKELY AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST POSES A PROBLEM. AM ALSO UNSURE IF THE SURFACE COLD AIR
WILL ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO EAST
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK QUITE WARM WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME MELTING AS THE SNOW FALLS. WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES POSE YET ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ALL THAT SAID...CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY SNOW POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY...POSITION/MOVEMENT OF
THIS LOW AND THE LOCATION/EXTENT OF COLDER AIR MASS. WHERE THAT
RAIN/SNOW LINE ENDS UP COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS AND MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW. THE MAIN STORY WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN BUT RESIDENTS AND PARTNERS IN EAST
COLORADO SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS IN CASE SNOW BECOMES A
BIGGER STORY SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 13 2016
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH 8-11KTS AND A CLEAR
SKY. FROM 10Z TO 15Z OR 16Z STILL EXPECTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD 13KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GUSTS OVER 30KTS LIKELY. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
347 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential
impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate
weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be
overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this
morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under
500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection
environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for
cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central
Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of
the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient
over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds
to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon.
Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective
allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope
environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real
increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with
what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the
low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still
the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models
are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far
southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night
into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this
event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late
Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches
of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even
localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall
duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
We will be monitoring trends overnight as stratus expands across
the entire area, or at least most of it in moist upslope flow at
max radiational cooling timing. The models may be too aggressive
in developing fairly widespread dense fog, whereas the GFS local
model output stats keep visibility up, likely owing to these
moderate surface winds ongoing at this time. A low confidence
forecast tonight, with TAF amendments likely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 53 74 55 / 0 10 30 50
GCK 75 53 74 53 / 10 20 50 60
EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 70 60
LBL 77 53 75 54 / 0 10 50 70
HYS 72 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50
P28 70 52 76 57 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA
COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT
TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI.
BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND
10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST
ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK
UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT
THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK
TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL
DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF
WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 70 50 20
BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20
ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20
MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20
GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 70 50 20
PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 70 50 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONSUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VERY QUIET PERIOD AHEAD. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN FORECAST. COULD GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOT WS
CRITERIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THINKING AT
THIS TIME IS IT WONT QUITE REACH CRITERIA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS S BCMG NE 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
AM ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO WAS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA. A WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALL MOVE EAST...WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GIVE A BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE...MAINLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
LOW/FRONTS. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE IN OR NEAR A THERMAL
RIDGE. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO HELP ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER SEVENTIES FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA NORTH TO THE LAKE
WINNIE AREA...AND SIXTIES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NORTH
SHORE WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WE KEPT ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TWIN
PORTS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL SHOW EASTERLY WINDS...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO
GET SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WE EXPECT A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS...WITH UPPER FORTIES ON
PARK POINT TO LOWER SIXTIES OVER THE HILL.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN CHANCES.
THE LOW WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS EAST ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER
SEVENTIES. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER AS WILL LAKESIDE AREAS IN
THE TWIN PORTS AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN INCOMING COLD FRONT BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
BEGINNING 00Z SATURDAY... EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE RECEIVING END
OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 8G/KG PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS INDICATED
BY SPC`S SREF MLCAPE FCST. SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM NW MN... BUT WILL SPREAD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE CWA 18Z MONDAY AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE... THE EXTENDED FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE BALMY SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND COOLER BY THE LAKE
(PARTICULARLY SATURDAY WITH A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER
TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS
WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE
MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 42 64 50 / 0 0 0 10
INL 60 45 67 51 / 40 40 10 60
BRD 75 48 70 54 / 0 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 65 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS HAS PRODUCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 20 MPH OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND EVEN MORE SO OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A WARM FRONT AND PUSH NORTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 40
FARTHER SOUTH. THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE THE SHOWERS...OR IF IT WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE. OF COURSE...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES STILL ONLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IT
WILL REACH THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE AREA SO THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISBY AND POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT KDLH. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. TRIED TO TIME THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATEST TIME LAGGED RAP ENSEMBLE. THE OTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS LLWS AT KHIB/KBRD/KHYR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXED LAYER
TAPS INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...LLWS
WILL BE A CONCERN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KDLH/KHYR WHERE THE
MIXED LAYER MAY NOT DECOUPLE AS HINTED BY THE LATEST GFS/NAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 60 42 57 / 0 10 10 0
INL 35 63 45 67 / 0 30 40 0
BRD 39 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 37 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 29 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-
FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO
WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH:
1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
(IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY
ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
BASIS.
2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30
PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE
LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR.
STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS
CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR
BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE
CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH
A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS
ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED
OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING:
EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE):
ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB
ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS
OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP
TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY
12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13
VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF
FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY
PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR
HAND.
TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET):
IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING
SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE
RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY
EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A
LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST
THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG
POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING
HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE
LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING
AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED
HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL
AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID-
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH
PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT
WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS
THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC
"ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS
AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE
TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20
MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL
RANGE OF 51-54.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN.
THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE
GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE
IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION
EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY
HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT
FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO
GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST.
LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD
CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER
INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I
FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR
POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING.
ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70
POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET
HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST.
UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF
RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO
NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD
FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY HIGH THAT VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS/QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING WHAT MIGHT TRANSPIRE MAINLY IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS COULD EASILY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM MVFR
TO LIFR (MORE DETAILS BELOW) IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH
ANY POSSIBLE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD.
CEILING/VISIBILITY: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MAINLY THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME WILL
UNFOLD...AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGEST DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT (WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN STEADY SOUTH
BREEZES) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR/LIFR CEILING. IT`S
HARD TO IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CEILING SURGING NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTH...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND
NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A LOW CEILING TO THE
TAFS FOR THIS MORNING BUT KEPT IT AT IFR LEVELS (AT LEAST FOR
NOW) ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG. FORTUNATELY...ANY
STRATUS/FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN ROUGHLY 4 HOURS AS
IT MIXES OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THEREAFTER. STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF ADJUSTMENTS HERE...
WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT EARLY
THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD APPROACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS A BIT MARGINAL TO FORMALLY INCLUDE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
TO NEAR MINOT TO NEAR BISMARCK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS DEPICT
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE...INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND DAYBREAK. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FROM MODELS INDICATE STILL
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER...THUS KEPT THAT MENTION IN THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST. OTHERWISE BLENDED CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO LATEST
SHORT TERM HIGH RES FORECAST. ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
ANOTHER UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 0135
UTC AND A 9 MEMBER TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 22-00 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS WHICH CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC
AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING
SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS
THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH
FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING
HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY
DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL
THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL
AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED
BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE
WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
AT MIDNIGHT CDT...A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS MOVING
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE MOVING EAST
AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 00Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT OR 6 PM MDT ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM CDT WEDNESDAY:
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL
CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and high mountain
snow to the Inland Northwest today. Scattered mountain showers
will linger over the Idaho Panhandle on Friday. Dry and much
warmer weather will return to the Pacific Northwest this weekend
and persist into the middle of next week. Afternoon temperatures
in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday through Tuesday will accelerate
mountain snow melt and produce rises on many area rivers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A well defined low off the northern Oregon
coast this morning will send a moist occluded front across the
region from southwest to northeast this morning. This will result
in widespread rain and mountain snow over the area with most
locations picking up between a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.
Elevations above 4000 to 5000 feet could pick up a couple inches
of snow resulting in local travel impacts over the mountain
passes...including Stevens, Loup Loup, Sherman, and Lookout Pass. This
area of precipitation will stall near or just north of the
Canadian border this afternoon but showers will develop behind
this especially over the mountains with a cold pool aloft over the
area. The models indicate enough instability across the Chelan,
Wenatchee, and Waterville areas as well as the Blue Mountains and
Camas Prairie to warrant a slight chance of afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms with CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG. As the low
pulls away tonight drier air aloft will nose into Central and
Eastern Washington while showers linger over the Idaho Panhandle.
A short wave ridge moves over the region on Friday. However
lingering low level moisture and afternoon heating may trigger a
few showers over the mountains. Models even indicate CAPE values
around 200 J/KG but with a short wave ridge over the area it is
unlikely that any thunderstorms will develop. JW
Saturday through Monday: Strong high pressure will develop over
the western United States over the weekend and persist into early
next week. Temperatures on Saturday will climb above average with
afternoon readings reaching the 60s and low 70s. By Sunday and
Monday, the 500mb ridge over the Western U.S. will become 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal as heights over eastern
Washington and north Idaho reach 580dm plus. Afternoon
temperatures will surge into the 70s on Sunday and several of our
typical warm spots like Lewiston, Moses Lake, and Wenatchee will
have a good shot of eclipsing 80 on Monday. Keep in mind our
typical highs this time of year are in the mid 50s and low 60s.
Increased run-off from mountain snow melt will begin to produce
rises in basins with ample high elevation snow pack. In general,
our basins fed by the Cascades and Canadian Rockies have the most
snow remaining (above 5000ft). The Moyie, Kootenai, Okanogan,
Similkameen, and Stehekin Rivers will experience the most
significant rises over the weekend into next week.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Tuesday and Wednesday we will begin to
look for the break down of the ridge. There is decent agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF that a shortwave approaching from the
southwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame will dent our big
ridge. Our air mass will be warm enough that the atmosphere may
behave like summer. Steep lapse rates and surface based
instability could bring our region a shot thunderstorms Wednesday
or Thursday. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low pressure system moves ashore tonight and tracks
along the WA/OR border between 12Z and 23Z Thur. Light showers
ahead of the system will mainly impact SE WA and N-C Idaho through
10z then an area of wrap-around stratiform rain will migrate north
into all terminals 11-14Z resulting in the potential for MVFR
ceilings. Timing carries some uncertainty wit models trending
slower this evening. The steady band of rain will crawl into
northern WA/ID Thur aftn however as steady rain ends, scattered
showers will be possible, especially with breaks in the clouds.
The system will begin drifting south after 00z and pull the
remnants of the moisture and threat for showers back south through
the region thus showers or vcsh were kept in the forecast after
sunset and through 06z. Moderate uncertainty exists with
particular ceiling heights. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 37 58 38 64 42 / 100 30 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 50 36 57 37 64 40 / 100 30 20 10 0 0
Pullman 52 35 56 36 62 39 / 80 30 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 57 39 62 40 68 43 / 90 30 10 10 0 0
Colville 52 36 63 36 67 38 / 100 30 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 48 37 56 35 62 36 / 100 60 20 10 0 0
Kellogg 47 34 52 35 62 37 / 100 40 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 59 37 65 38 70 41 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 41 64 42 69 45 / 80 20 10 0 0 0
Omak 53 38 64 39 67 42 / 100 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1154 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and mountain snow will increase across the region overnight
into Thursday including the Columbia Basin and our typically dry
portions of central Washington. Warm and dry weather will return
to the Pacific Northwest this weekend. By early next week,
afternoon temperatures will have the potential to be in the upper
70s and lower 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest 00z ECMWF and HRRR runs are catching up to the current
situation with precip slower to move into the region. Thus far mid
level instability is triggered scattered showers over southeast
Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle, with stratiform rain
associated with the incoming low over north Central Oregon. This
area of stratiform rain is expected to reach central and southeast
Washington and Lewiston area overnight before lifting north
Thursday morning. Thus POP`s have been adjusted to reflect this.
JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low pressure system moves ashore tonight and tracks
along the WA/OR border between 12Z and 23Z Thur. Light showers
ahead of the system will mainly impact SE WA and N-C Idaho through
10z then an area of wrap-around stratiform rain will migrate north
into all terminals 11-14Z resulting in the potential for MVFR
ceilings. Timing carries some uncertainty wit models trending
slower this evening. The steady band of rain will crawl into
northern WA/ID Thur aftn however as steady rain ends, scattered
showers will be possible, especially with breaks in the clouds.
The system will begin drifting south after 00z and pull the
remnants of the moisture and threat for showers back south through
the region thus showers or vcsh were kept in the forecast after
sunset and through 06z. Moderate uncertainty exists with
particular ceiling heights. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 52 37 58 38 64 / 30 100 30 20 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 40 52 36 57 37 64 / 40 100 30 30 10 0
Pullman 40 52 35 55 36 64 / 70 80 30 30 10 0
Lewiston 46 58 39 60 39 68 / 70 90 30 20 10 0
Colville 39 54 36 63 37 68 / 20 100 30 20 10 0
Sandpoint 37 49 37 56 36 63 / 20 100 60 30 10 0
Kellogg 36 47 34 52 35 62 / 70 90 40 50 10 10
Moses Lake 46 59 37 65 39 69 / 40 60 20 10 0 0
Wenatchee 45 58 41 64 42 69 / 60 80 20 0 0 0
Omak 43 58 38 64 38 67 / 20 100 30 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM PDT Thursday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
918 PM PDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING SHOWERY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNNIER WARMER WEATHER
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A VERTICALLY STACKED AND FILLING 993 MB SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED NEAR 47N 132W THIS EVENING...OR WELL OFF THE SOUTH WA
COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB BY THE
TIME IT CROSSES THE FAR NRN ORE COAST ON THU MORNING...WITH
CONTINUED WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON
THU AFTN. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES EAST
OF OUR LONGITUDE...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WA
THIS EVNG...THEN SPREAD NE THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND REGION
OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OR A
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE CASCADES FROM SNOQUALMIE PASS ON NORTH
ON THU MORNING. THE 02Z HRRR DUMPS NEARLY ONE INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AT STEVENS PASS THU MORNING...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW PASS LEVEL. WILL SOON DO A FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE
SNOW AMOUNTS THERE IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
AFTER THE LOW CENTER PASSES EAST LATER THU...LARGER SCALE LIFT
WILL END...BUT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL STILL LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND SW INTERIOR. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL RISE STRONGLY ON THU NGT AND FRI...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF
SHALLOW AND WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ON FRI.
THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE NW OLYMPIC PENINSULA
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SAT MORNING. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE
FURTHER...AND THE ENTIRE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
OUT. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CRANK UP ON SAT NGT.
THEREFORE...A SOLID CLEARING...DRYING AND WARMING TREND ON SAT
AFTN. HANER
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING
WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY AND WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THAT
HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATE THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
SOMEWHAT MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
THERE IS A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COAST AND SOUTH PART WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
KSEA...THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
LOW CLOUDS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME DRYING IS LIKELY LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES
IN. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 4-8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED FILLING 999 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OR NORTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING. GALES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY WONT MATERIALIZE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR OTHER WATERS WILL ALSO COME DOWN TONIGHT.
THE ONLY REMAINING HAZARDS BY THURSDAY WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 12-15
FOOT WEST SWELL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS RISE IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIVE SMALL CRAFT WEST WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THURSDAY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.10 INCH OR LESS EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH BAY
TO THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST THREE HOURS
AND ISOLATED LIGHT AMOUNTS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS RELATIVELY STRONG DESENDING
AIR WITHIN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND BRIEF SHOWERS
DEVELOOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL BUILD OVER 10 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ006-505-509
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ529-530
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: 30/BLIER
AVIATION: 30
MARINE: 30
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:13 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SOUTH BAY AREA AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL COAST MID-LATE MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTH BAY AREA AT THIS
HOUR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1000Z AND
1200Z WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1200Z TO 1500Z. WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1100Z AND
1500Z. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE MONTEREY COAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
CURRENT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING AND SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AROUND 10AM. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST BEYOND
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST LIMIT OF 60NM WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD
DRIFT. INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING VARIABLE
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHORT TERM MODELS...RAP40/HRRR...INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO THE WEST NOON/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD START FORMING MID
AFTERNOON AND ALSO MOVE EAST. PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH
10000 FEET WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST WHERE
THEY WILL MOST LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT IS
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
MORNING ZONES UPDATE WILL AMEND TIMING AND WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VIS INTERIOR KISM-KDED TIL
15Z THEN VFR. VCTS 18Z-06Z GOOD CALL AS TIMING OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
STILL UNCERTAIN. AFT 06Z VCSH LOOKS GOOD.
.MARINE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE AFTER 1 PM AT THE
COAST. SEA BREEZES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INLAND VERY FAR AGAINST A
PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...
.AVIATION...SEVERAL TAF SITES RECORDING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT THE COAST FROM FORT PIERCE NORTH. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD JUMP AROUND FROM AS LOW AS LIFR TO VFR NEXT HOUR THEN
PREVAILING VFR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/MIST HAVING LIFTED/BURNED OFF.
WILL WATCH OBS AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 420 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
CURRENT...NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL LIE
ACROSS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY SUNRISE AND BECOME DIFFUSE SOON
THEREAFTER. CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
READINGS WELL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
MCLOUDY SKIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD/PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-4
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PICKING
UP ON THIS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
S/SE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACCORDING TO LOCAL MODELS (HRRR/WRF). THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY TO DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ON THIS DAY SO
CONFIDENCE LOW HERE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN AS WELL WILL THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALOFT
AS PERIODIC VORTICITY IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WILL NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE MORNING BUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AS THE AFTERNOON GROWS OLD...OUR SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. SURFACE HEATING IS IN QUESTION A BIT BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
BREAKS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AGAIN (-12C/-13C) AT 500MB
PROMOTING INSTABILITY.
EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) FROM KMCO-KTTS
NORTHWARD. CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF HERE (40-50 PERCENT). MOVEMENT OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AGAIN AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUED MILD
AND GENERALLY IN THE M-U60S.
FRI-SUN...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY
WEAKENING THE CTRL-ERN CONUS "REX" BLOCK FRIDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA BLOCK
BY THIS WEEKEND. RAPIDLY WEAKENING H50 LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS BENEATH THE "REX HIGH" FRI...BEFORE SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT. RESIDUAL RIBBON OF H50 VORT LINGERS ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PREFERRED GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE
SLOWER SHEARING AND THUS MORE RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING
BACK ACROSS FL ON SAT. AXIS OF THE RIDGE ANCHORING THE OMEGA WILL
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE S TO SSW MOVING WRN
ATLC LOW DOES THE SAME. AT THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
STATE FRI GETS FLATTENED AT BY NE SURGE BTWN WITH THE STRONG SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEPENING LOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE WRN
ATLC.
PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO BE WET FRI-SAT (LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS)
AND STRONG STORMS ARE A DECENT BET FRIDAY AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT (13C/-
14C @H50) IN PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVG.
SAT LOOKS SHOWERY WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL DRAPED OVER THE REGION...
BUT LOWER CHC FOR STORMS GIVEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN DECREASED SFC BASED CONVG/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... TEMPS
H50 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A DEGREE COLDER...SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TS. DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH SAT NIGHT/ SUN
WITH JUST A SMALL CHC FOR A COASTAL SHOWER IN CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE (ENE TO NE) WIND FLOW. TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FRI-FRI
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
PROBABLY HOLDING MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MON-WED...FORECAST REMAINS DRY FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES SWD OVER FL. SOME INDICATIONS BY THE GFS OF A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT TAKING A RUN AT NORTH FL LATE WED...BUT WITH THE ECM
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WELL TO THE N/E...NOT BITING OFF ON THAT SOLN.
TEMPS START OFF A DEG OR SO JUST OFF CLIMO BEFORE WARMING TO NORMAL
TUE-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOME LOWER
CIGS NEAR/NORTH OF I-4 AS SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENING`S RAINS WHICH WE HAVEN`T SEEN IN A WHILE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH HRRR SHOWS CURRENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT BECOMING S/SE LATER IN THE MORNING.
ANTICIPATE VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PUSH INLAND
WITH COLLISION LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART. THE MAJORITY OF THE RESULTANT COLLISION CONVECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY WITH FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
COVERAGE AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA COVERAGE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING. PERIODIC
IMPULSES TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY AID IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
DISTORTED WIND FIELD FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT`S CONVECTION. VARIOUS
MODELS NOT HANDLING TODAY`S WIND FIELDS VERY WELL SO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT...THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SO
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST AT LEAST BY
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY MAY SEE MORE
S/SERLY WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...EXCEPT E/NERLY WINDS VOLUSIA
COAST IF BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES A BIT QUICKER SOUTHWARD. SEAS
BUILDING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND MAINLY 4-5 FT NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET
LATE TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST. AN EAST-NORTHEAST
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE IN THIS
PERIOD.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE...VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEVELOPING TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST FL COAST
EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRI-MON...PRESENCE OF TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BLO 15KT FOR MOST OF THE MAOR THROUGH FRI NIGHT HOWEVER
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS MAY LEAK INTO THE VOLUSIA WATERS (15-20KT/6-9FT)
LATE IN THE DAY AS TROUGH AXIS SLIPS SWD A BIT. BOATING AND BEACH
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY N-S ON SAT AS STRONG NE TO ENE
WIND SURGE COUPLED WITH LENGTHENING NE FETCH BTWN STRONG ERN CONUS
HIGH/DEEP WRN ATLC LOW CAUSES BOTH AN INCREASING WIND CHOP AND
BUILDING NE SWELL. 6-9FT SEAS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MAOR
SAT...WITH 6-9FT SEAS EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND 10-11FT SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
BOATERS AND BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE MARINE EVENT GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERSISTENCE.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AS WELL FOR LATE SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 64 78 66 / 70 50 60 40
MCO 84 65 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
MLB 83 65 79 68 / 50 30 70 40
VRB 83 65 81 67 / 40 40 70 40
LEE 81 64 80 64 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 82 65 81 65 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 83 66 81 66 / 60 50 70 40
FPR 84 64 80 67 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
728 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential
impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate
weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be
overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this
morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under
500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection
environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for
cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central
Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of
the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient
over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds
to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon.
Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective
allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope
environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real
increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with
what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the
low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still
the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models
are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far
southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night
into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this
event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late
Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches
of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even
localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall
duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 726 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Widespread low stratus developed during the overnight hours
producing IFR flight category ceiling, generally 500 to 700 feet.
Wind speeds in the 13 to 16 knot range have prevented development of
sustained dense fog. The stratus and IFR ceiling are expected to
dissipate by late morning with the onset of insolation. The south-
southeast winds will continue with gusts in the upper 20s knots
through this evening. With low level moisture now in place, we will
likely see the redevelopment of IFR ceilings in low stratus again
early Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 53 74 55 / 0 10 30 50
GCK 75 53 74 53 / 10 20 50 60
EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 70 60
LBL 77 53 75 54 / 0 10 50 70
HYS 72 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50
P28 70 52 76 57 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT OB
TIME. RATHER SATURATED COLUMN TO ABOUT 320 MB WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER 1.57 INCHES. PRECIP LOADED APPEARANCE WITH SKINNY CAPE ON
339K LIFT FROM SURFACE. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HEATING DOES GET A
LIFT OF 342K BASED AT LCL 877MB. CHAP OUTPUT YIELDS A 57% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUST POTENTIAL 35 KT...PEA HAIL WITH A VIL OF
66. H50 TEMPERATURE OF -13C IS A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLUMN DOES DRY DOWNWARD FROM 300MB. RAIN
POTENTIAL IS INDICATED TO BE IN THE 2.5-5.0 INCH RANGE. WIND
PROFILE SHOWED SE FLOW BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW-W
15 TO 115 KT ABOVE. PEAK WIND 268/113KT AT 38.3KFT. TROPOPAUSE WAS
AT 201MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -55.7C.
FLIGHT TERMINATED AT 5.9 MB OR 21.5 MILES UP OVER JACKSON CO MS
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 57 AND GAUTIER-VANCLEAVE RD...65
MILES DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ALREADY GETTING STARTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE LA
COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN GENERAL...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF RAINFALL TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BATON ROUGE TO GULFPORT LINE. MESO AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THAT
TIME...A JET NOSE COMING IN FROM TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL PROMOTE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. THINKING BATON ROUGE METRO AND INTO SW MISSISSIPPI.
BTR AND MCB MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
WITH 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S -4 TO -6 AND WBZ HEIGHT OF AROUND
10KFT. WINDS...ALTHOUGH VEERING NICELY FROM SE AT THE SFC TO WEST
ALOFT...ARE GENERALLY WEAK IN LOWER LAYERS AND THUS POSE A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SO THINKING
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE SVR WARNINGS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
FRIDAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A EASTWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS RANGING FROM 30S IN SWRN ZONES TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN SW AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW STATIONARY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO
THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK
UP INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH DIPPING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND KEEP IT
THERE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST
WILL OPEN INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT COULD TAKE THE ENTIRE WEEK
TO TAKE PLACE. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
SH/TS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TS GROUPS FOR TERMINALS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/12. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE AT SEVERAL
DIFFERENT LEVELS BREAKING AND COVERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
MOST TO BE FROM BKN008-015 AND SOME TO BE AT OVC030. CEILINGS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND OVC005 AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SH/TS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF
WILL HELP A VERY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AS IT RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF CAUSING A STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO SET UP STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS EAST OF THE MISS RIVER AND GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF THE RIVER BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 60 71 58 / 70 60 50 20
BTR 77 62 74 61 / 70 40 40 20
ASD 76 63 72 61 / 80 60 50 20
MSY 75 65 74 64 / 80 60 40 20
GPT 73 62 70 60 / 80 60 50 20
PQL 74 60 71 59 / 80 60 50 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
914 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE
CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG
IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS
THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO-
LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS
TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND
AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR
THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN
NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80)
INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME
MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY, WITH NNE WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY OVER COASTAL TERMINALS AND ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY
WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS
FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE
DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z
GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT
TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE)
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL
DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER
SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK
SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A
STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY
TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS
PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE
NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN
SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.
KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS
REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-
FREE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND ALSO BREEZY TO
WINDY...THERE ARE 2 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH:
1) IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
OBVIOUS FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
(IF NOT MORE) OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS...THE JURY IS STILL VERY MUCH ON OUT REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT FOG REMAINS NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT NUISANCE...OR ACTUALLY
ENDS UP BECOMING THICKER/MORE DENSE ON AT LEAST A LOCALIZED
BASIS.
2) LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 1 AM)...WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30
PERCENT) PRECIP CHANCES/POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED THESE
LOW RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR.
STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 09Z/4AM..."NUMBER 1" ABOVE IS
CLEARLY THE ONGOING FORECAST HEADACHE REGARDING LOW
STRATUS/POSSIBLE FOG TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...SOME MODELS/SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE PERFORMING FAR
BETTER THAN OTHERS AT CAPTURING THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO OUR CWA...AND EVEN SOME THAT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE ITS DEVELOPMENT ARE STILL NOTICEABLY TOO HIGH WITH THE
CLOUD CEILING. AS OF THIS WRITING...THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS (WITH
A HEIGHT OF ONLY AROUND 600 FT) HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF OUR KS
ZONES...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NORTH
OF THE STATE LINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CONTINUE TO RULE THE NEBRASKA CWA. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...VERY WEAK/BENIGN FLOW PERSISTS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE...WITH THE LOCAL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW CENTERED OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDER AREA...AND STILL WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED LARGE-SCALE LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES OUTLINED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1006 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED
OVER SD AND HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
A RESULT...BREEZES ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 7-12 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY 47-50...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING:
EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE):
ALL EYES ARE ON THE NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW STRATUS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING OUT OF KS INTO NEB
ZONES. FOLLOWING THE USUAL MOST-RELIABLE VERY NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS
OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODELS...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT UP
TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR IF NOT A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY
12Z/7AM. ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGES OF THIS CLOUD MASS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT ANY FOG COULD BECOME MORE DENSE. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13
VISIBILITY PROGS STILL SHOW THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD HELP MITIGATE TRULY IMPACTFUL FOG
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIX OF "PATCHY" AND "AREAS" OF
FOG IN FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM SPECIFYING ANY
PRONOUNCED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNLESS/UNTIL THEY SHOW THEIR
HAND.
TODAY (SUNRISE THROUGH SUNSET):
IN SHORT...ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY THAT IF ANYTHING
SHOULD AVERAGE ROUGHLY 5 MPH WINDIER THAN YESTERDAY. PROBABLY THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING/INCOMING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BURN OFF/DISSIPATE. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE
RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS MORE CLOSELY THAN ANYTHING (INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD PRODUCTS AND 925/900 MILLIBAR RH)...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 92 AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
BIT FARTHER BY THE 7-9 AM TIME FRAME...BEFORE A STEADY
EROSION/DISSIPATION GETS UNDERWAY BY 10 AM WITH MAYBE ONLY A
LITTLE LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BY ROUGHLY 11 AM AND
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CWA-WIDE BY NOON AT THE LATEST. AT LEAST
THAT`S THE GENERAL EXPECTATION...AGAIN FOR A CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. AS FOR FOG
POTENTIAL...SEE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING PARAGRAPH FOR REASONING
HERE. IN SHORT...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A BASIC FOG MENTION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 AM BUT AGAIN REALLY NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING DENSE/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST INITIALLY...THE
LOW STRATUS AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD KEEP MORNING SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AND AGAIN ASSUMING
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SUN BREAKS OUT AS EXPECTED...DEEPENING MIXING
AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO PRONOUNCED
HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. TEMP-WISE...AND YET AGAIN ASSUMING PLENTIFUL
AFTERNOON SUN...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
74-77. FORTUNATELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN MID-
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S...THUS KEEPING RH
PERCENTAGES INTO THE 30S AND SAFELY ABOVE "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD AGAIN OVERTAKE MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
WEST-TO-EAST INCREASE IN AT LEAST MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...NOTICEABLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE CURRENT
WEAK/"RIDGY" REGIME...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
WILL INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
EVIDENT AT 850MB TO KICK OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE PRE-06Z/EVENING HOURS PRECIP-FREE AS ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO ALL BUT MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL SPC DAY 1 "GENERAL THUNDER" AREA ONLY CLIPS
THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERIC
"ISOLATED THUNDER" WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...AS NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE...MAKING IT VERY HARD TO RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK STORMS
AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. OTHERWISE
TONIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF GENERALLY 15-20
MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THESE BREEZES...IN TANDEM WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH A GENERAL
RANGE OF 51-54.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN.
THE LONG AWAITED DEVELOPING TROUGH AND UPPER CLOSED ARRIVE IN THE
GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG
WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE
IN THE EAST WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW. TRENDS CONTINUALLY POINT TOWARD A SLOWED PROGRESSION
EAST OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAMP DOWN ON POPS BEING VERY
HIGH...BUT THEY WILL BE A HIGHER IN OUR WEST. ALSO...I SUSPECT THAT
FRIDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING WARMER THAN WHAT MOST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. I TEND TO LIKE THE WARM GUIDANCE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE GENERALLY OUTPERFORMED
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AND IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD LURK WELL WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LEND TO A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY. IF WE HAPPEN TO
GET A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD...THEN OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN WHAT I ADVERTISE...BUT FOR NOW I SIDE WITH THE WARMER FORECAST.
LIKEWISE...I WENT WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND WENT TOWARD
CONSRAW FOR LOWS AS WE REMAIN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SKY COVER
INCREASES QUITE A BIT. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND I
FOLLOWED CONSRAW FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUPERBLEND SUFFICES FOR TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THIS. FOR
POPS...I DECREASED THEM COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND IS ADVERTISING.
ALSO...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 70
POPS...EVEN IN OUR WEST AT ANY POINT. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE YET. IF THE LOW TAKES TOO LONG TO GET
HERE...THE FACT THAT IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WILL DECREASE OUR
CHANCES OF PRECIP OVERALL. THE LOW MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID WORK WEEK. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN OUR WEST.
UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA...WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF
RAIN. I LEFT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LONG TERM AS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS...AND IT IS FRANKLY DIFFICULT TO
NOT GET THUNDER WITH CONVECTION WHEN WE GET INTO THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND BEYOND. THE SPC SWIPES OUR FAR WEST WITH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY...BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS AS TRENDS ARE FOR THE COLD
FRONT BEING FARTHER WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY...THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUB-VFR...ONE RIGHT AWAY/ONGOING THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THIS HAS BEEN COVERED WITH
A GENERIC "VICINITY SHOWER" (VCSH) MENTION.
CEILING/VISIBILITY: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE IN FACT MOVED UP FROM
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH THINGS AS BAD IF NOT WORSE THAN
EXPECTED 6 HOURS AGO. FORTUNATELY...THESE VERY LOW CEILINGS AND
VARIABLE VISIBILITY IN FOG ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ROUGHLY 3
HOURS OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING/SCOURING OUT BUT THIS TIMING WILL
NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE THE MORNING GRUNGE CLEARS...MOST OF THE
DAY/NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD A
RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR (POSSIBLY WORSE) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
WINDS: A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE BELOW 12KT INITIALLY
THIS MORNING...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AS
SKIES CLEAR WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO AROUND 27KT WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE AS GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) COULD APPROACH/REACH MENTIONABLE LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS WELL-BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO EXAMINE AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND
850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES
OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE
COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC
NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATEDWATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF
OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF
INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF
PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF
RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL
PRECIP WILL EXIT.
TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO
CENTER OF UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
UPPER LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MEAN MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW TSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY CKV/BNA. THIS MAY BRING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN INTO
MVFR LEVELS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO BE MORE ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LARGELY
VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.........................01/BOYD
SHORT/LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING
DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS
VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO
ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF
LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/.
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO
KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG
IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING
WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES
POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA
SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...VICTORIA.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...UPDATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
309 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TODAY THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE AREA
BY LATER TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE IS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. A BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY NORTH
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE IS MOVING STEADILY AND
PRESENTLY SHIFTING NORTH OF THE SEATTLE AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF WASHINGTON AND
OFFSHORE. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THE OFFSHORE LOW CENTER
WEAKENING WITH RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE THE FORECAST GENERALLY AS IT WAS...LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN EFFECT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TODAY. THE LOW WILL PIVOT
QUICKLY EAST AS IT FILLS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY EARLY
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A MORE TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY WITH
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ATOP EAST- CENTRAL WASHINGTON. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB AS WELL AND 70S TO 80S WILL RETURN FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AT +14 TO +16C
AND SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS OF AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS WELL WITH THE RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW. NEXT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TODAY AND SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A FILLING
999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...BECOMING STABLE TONIGHT.
KSEA...A BAND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT AND BE GENERALLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WIND
4-8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...A FILLING 999 MILLIBAR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE LOW LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD EASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE WEST SWELL 10-15 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SCHNEIDER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH
AND KING COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY
TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND
TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT
TONIGHT FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 23-00Z. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW SPOTTER REPORTS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER WINDSOR AND SANTA ROSA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THE SUN SETS. A NOWCAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION UNDERWAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...WEATHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A NICE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR. FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIRMASS
WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...INTERIOR POSS
LOW 90S ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW. A COOL DOWN WILL BE NOTICED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER
RANGE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH- NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST
COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD
VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 2:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1107 AM PDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT DISSIPATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PUSHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF OUR DISTRICT WHILE LATEST KMUX RADAR DATA SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA SOUTH THROUGH THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL NOTED THUS FAR IS
0.69 INCHES AT THE MIDDLE PEAK (MT TAMALPAIS) RAWS SITE IN MARIN
COUNTY...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY HAVING
RECEIVED LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO TO ONE DEG C IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT MID-APRIL DIURNAL HEATING WILL PARTIALLY
COMPENSATE WITH THE NET RESULT OF LOWER ELEVATION MAX TEMPS AROUND
THE BAYS STILL MOSTLY REACHING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT
WILL BE A BIT BRISK NEAR THE COAST THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...AND
IN COMBINATION WITH AIR MASS WARMING AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND
MORE OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 7
DEG WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10-12 DEGREES
WARMER IN NORTH BAY VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SANTA ROSA AREA
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS ARE MAXIMIZED.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
ECMWF WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL IN SUCH SITUATIONS...HAVE BUMPED UP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT
ON SUNDAY WITH WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS BRUSHING UPWARDS TOWARDS
90 DEG.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE ONSHORE ORIENTED
SURFACE FLOW. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH OUR COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME...BUT RAIN CHANCES PRESENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL AS GENERAL
CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY... REGION IS IN A POST
COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. WIDESPREAD
VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY/GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. CUMULUS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FEW TO SCT CLOUDS FROM 3000-5000 FT TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:06 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
The quiet weather pattern will continue through tonight with dry
conditions and slightly above-normal temperatures. Water vapor
imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to track eastward
across Oklahoma into Arkansas, with some low/mid clouds extending
into far east central Kansas early this morning. Aside from this
wave, the region will generally be under a weak mid-level ridge
through tonight as a closed low moves into the Pacific Northwest
today and will cause a deep trough to develop across the western
U.S. tonight into Friday. Surface winds will remain out of the
south/southeast today and tonight as the region stays wedged between
high pressure to the east and low pressure across the Rockies and
High Plains. With the exception of a few low clouds that may skim
across portions of north central Kansas this morning, skies will be
mostly sunny today with the southerly winds helping to push
afternoon high temperatures into the low/mid 70s once again. These
southerly winds will also continue to advect more moisture into the
region, with dewpoint temperatures staying in the 40s today which
will keep minimum relative humidity values in the mid 30 to low 40
percent range. Winds may become breezy at times this afternoon
across north central Kansas with gusts of 20-25mph. Gusts may only
diminish to 15-20mph in that region overnight, which will keep
temperatures a few degrees warmer than early this morning. In
addition to these persistent southerly winds, some mid-level clouds
may begin to move into central Kansas by Friday morning ahead of the
approaching system. With these conditions in place, lows tonight
should only drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
The latest model consensus with regards to the slow moving four
corners upper low is for a little slower movement than previous
model runs. The upper low will be between the ridge in the western
U.S. and western Canadian provinces and the upper high pressure over
the eastern states. The upper low is forecast to gradually move
eastward and fill as it moves out into the plains next week. There
is a good signal for precipitation late in the weekend through the
first half of next week across central and eastern Kansas. With the
slow progression deep moisture will stream northward from the Gulf
into the Plains for much of the period. Initially most of the
forcing and moisture will be over the Rockies and High Plains then
gradually shift eastward with time. Therefore have gone dry on
Friday then gradually introducing precipitation chances to areas of
north central Kansas beginning Friday night through Saturday night.
By Sunday and Monday large scale forcing will increase across
central and eastern Kansas with a energy ejects out into the Plains.
Also by Monday low pressure will develop over central Kansas with a
cold front extending south into Texas with a warm/stationary front
near Interstate 70 with the low/inverted trough progressing eastward
across eastern Kansas on Tuesday. Good moisture in place along with
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg Monday and Tuesday afternoon with 0-6 KM
shear around 25-30 kts may see a few strong storms, but mainly
beneficial rainfall. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday
as the system remains and weakens over the Plains. Temperatures
mainly in the 70s through Sunday cooling off into the 60s for the
first half of the week. Lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR conditions for the day today with some potential MVFR visbys
toward morning as moisture continues to increase and may bring
another round of haze/fog. Winds increase once again on Friday but
late enough in the period to not yet include here.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
Stratus expanding across the area this morning, and it`s potential
impacts on the temperature through the day is the immediate
weather story. Fog was overdone in the NAM model, and may be
overdone as well by the HRRR solutions going forward early this
morning. However the expansion of stratus with bases at or under
500 ft continues this morning in a weak moisture advection
environment. Going forward this afternoon, the models account for
cloud dissipation by having much cooler temperatures in central
Kansas. The surface high pressure will continue to shift east of
the Mississippi valley, increasing the surface pressure gradient
over western KS, and allowing moderate to strong southerly winds
to develop especially once mixing maximizes this afternoon.
Very low pops are in place tonight, following the convective
allowing models reflectivity fields/weak cape and upslope
environment with exiting shortwave ridge. however the real
increase in precipitation chances comes on Friday afternoon with
what could potentially be a few severe thunderstorms given the
low to moderate cape values and strong bulk shear.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
A well advertised so far thunderstorm/heavy rain event is still
the main story in the medium range timeframe. All of the models
are consistent in the large upper low stalling over the far
southern Rockies/northern New Mexico region from Friday night
into Monday morning. The gulf fetch will be wide open for this
event, and a persistent rain looks to really get going by late
Saturday and not end until early Monday at best. Several inches
of rain are likely across most of the forecast area, and even
localized flooding possible becoming a reality where rainfall
duration and intensity are largest over low lying drainage areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2016
VFR through 06z Friday. Strong SE winds 20-30 kts through sunset,
with higher gusts. SE winds will diminish a bit this evening, but
remain quite elevated overnight near 18-20 kts. High confidence
of MVFR/IFR cigs in stratus returning 06-12z Friday, with the
highest impacts on aviation expected at DDC. LIFR cigs possible
SE of DDC including P28. Patchy fog will redevelop after 06z as
well, with areas of BR and reduced visibility. Lowest vis expected
DDC and points SE. Consensus of short term models indicates MVFR
cigs in stratus will persist until around 18z Friday. After 18z
Friday, very strong SE winds will impact aviation operations with
gusts near 40 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 53 74 55 / 0 10 20 60
GCK 77 53 74 53 / 10 20 40 70
EHA 80 54 75 52 / 10 10 60 70
LBL 78 53 75 54 / 0 10 40 70
HYS 75 52 74 54 / 0 20 30 50
P28 74 52 76 57 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner/White
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD STRONG HI PRES CENTERED OVER SE
CANADA. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PIVOTING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. DRY WX CONTINUES TDA WITH THE MID ATLC UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI TO THE N. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST THIS MORNG
IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS GETTING A COUPLE DEGREES LWR THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING ENUF TO
WARRANT A FROST ADVSRY. ASIDE FM A FEW HI CLOUDS OVER SERN AREAS
THIS MORNG...EXPECT A SUNNY SKY TDA UNDER N/NE FLOW. LOCAL LO-
LEVEL THICKNESS TOOL WHICH HANDLED TEMPS WELL YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60 MOST AREAS
TDA...ABOUT FIVE TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE BLOCKY PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
TO THE NORTH PROGGED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH / MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
BUT H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RECOVER OVER TIME. THUS...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY.
LOWS TONITE 35-40 AWAY FROM THE WATER...L-M40S AT THE BEACHES.
HIGHS FRI IN THE L60S WEST OF THE BAY...55-60 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS FRI NITE U30S-M40S. HIGHS SAT L-M60S WEST OF THE BAY...U50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND
AROUND 50 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WEDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BREAKS DOWN SUN AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES SUN NIGHT. ONSHORE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS TIME AND KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS COOL NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR
THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
BEACHES. A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER SUN
NIGHT GETS PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON AND DRAGS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION ON MON AND START SPREADING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MON SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY 80)
INLAND...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS BECOME
MORE NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS EARLY MON NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW 70S...MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST...LOW 60S BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE PIEDMONT/INLAND AREAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT OVER SBY/RIC AND POSSIBLE PHF SO
SHOULD SEE WINDS GO VERY LIGHT AT THESE LOCATIONS WHILE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT FOR ORF/ECG. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY ONCE THE DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS BY AROUND 13Z.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, MAINTAINING DRY
WX/VFR CONDS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE MADE A FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES TO DROP SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER ZONE...FOR TODAY...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FT. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND IS STRETCHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS
FURTHER OFF SHORE AND MORE INTO THE OUTER BANKS THAN INTO THE
DELMARVA AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 6Z
GUIDANCE, THE 11Z RUC AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS...THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THAT
TIME. THUS...DROPPED SCA FLAGS FOR THOSE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH THEM GOING BACK INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1 AM
EDT FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1034+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND, WEDGING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. RESULTANT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG ONSHORE (NNE)
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25KT. NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 5-8FT RANGE...8-10 FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. PER LATEST OBS AND HI-RES MODEL
DEPICTION, HAVE DROPPED SCA FLAGS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY ZONE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, AND WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHES BAY, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. FARTHER
SOUTH, SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY (SOUTH
OF NEW PT COMFORT) AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THROUGH FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK
SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SWD WELL OFF THE COAST...CREATING A
STRONGER SURGE OF NNE WINDS, QUITE POSSIBLY OVER ALL ZONES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS/NE SWELL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-10FT SAT/SAT NIGHT. COOL AIR WEDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SCA THRESHOLD, LIKELY
TAKING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE US/SE CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY, AND GETS
PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND MON/MON NGT. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THIS FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION MON NGT...BECOMING MORE
NLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT TUE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SUB-SCA PUSH IN WIND SPEEDS AOB 15KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ESS/MAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING
YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL EASE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING VERY QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING. READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH ARE ONLY A
FEW DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. RH VALUES HAVE RESPONDED
ACCORDINGLY AND ARE NOW APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. FURTHER
EAST...TEMPS HAVEN/T QUITE BEEN WARMING AS QUICKLY AND RH VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 40S. THUS...NO EXPANSION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING
YET BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
WARM FRONT THAT REMAINED WELL DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGH WAS FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS
DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...THOUGH WAS STILL IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ABOVE 50. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...A 995 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ND/SD/WY/MT REGION...WHICH PUT A MORE SRLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND FINALLY FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE WARM FRONT UP INTO NRN MN. THIS STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO WRN MN ALONG ROUGHLY AN
ABERDEEN TO BEMIDJI LINE. WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WE REMAIN
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING TO THE LOW 80S WEST OF A GRANITE FALLS
TO STAPLES LINE. IN ADDITION...BASED ON A RAP/GFS MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS...THIS PORTION OF WESTERN MN LOOKS TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THEIR NORTH /NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/ AND TO THE EAST AS AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 40S IN ERN NEB LOOKS TO GET ADVECTED UP TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES
TODAY. THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS COINCIDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S RESULTED IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO GET DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. INCIDENTALLY...THIS
IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC INCLUDED AN ELEVATED AREA ON THE DAY 1 FIRE
WEATHER RISK MAP...SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH MIFC ALONG WITH
ABR/FSD/FGF...WE ENDED UP WITH THE RFW SEEN FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF MN...WE HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS MORE 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ARX/DLH...WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST THE MPX MN COUNTIES.
MAIN AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY IS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
AND ATTENDANT HUMIDITY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CERTAINLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE DEWPOINT ENVELOP...BUT IN LINE WITH WHAT THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF ARE SHOWING. IF THERE IS AN AREA THIS FORECAST GOOD BE A BUST
IT IS WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST WEEK...WE HAVE
HAD A COOL TEMPERATURE AND MOIST RH BIAS...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
CURRENT SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TO SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S THANKS TO SRLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PUSH ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVEN FARTHER WEST OF WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
IT MAY BE TORNADO TEST DAY IN MN/WI...BUT THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN THE OMEGA BLOCK IN THE
ATLANTIC. THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS KEEPING THE NE CONUS/EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH IN PLACE...AND FARTHER UPSTREAM THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE
THE RESULT LOCALLY FRI- SAT. A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FILLING AND
SHEARING OUT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AND KEEPS IT THERE UNTIL
SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING IT E-SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS
DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WRN WI...IT WILL BE AN
SKC TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
THE GUIDANCE AND OUR TAFS TO THIS POINT...SO FEW CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.
KMSP...IS SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING THAT WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 14Z AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THUS
REDUCING SHEAR. OTHERWISE ITS A HIGH CONFIDENCE KIND OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-042-
047>049-054>057-064.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
302 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP
A VERY WARM AIR MASS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S AND DEW
POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND BASES AROUND 10KFT...SUCH A DEEP
EVAPORATION LAYER LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL ONLY SEE THE ODD
SPRINKLE AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE NAMDNG AND HRRR SIMULATE
DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST
SUBTLE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN WYOMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER LOW
THAT SITS AND SPINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL EJECT A SECOND WAVE NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS.CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 400 AND
1000 J/KG...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO THE MAIN REGION RECEIVING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT IS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY. NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...A LOCAL
BULLSEYE OF AROUND 15 MICROBARS...SO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ADVECT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES BUT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY MUCAPE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER WEAK. A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THANKS TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST ADIABATIC BUT WITH
SOME ELEVATED CAPE...AND PWATS NEARING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF TO 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN
70 AND 30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST WHILE
VALUES DROP. THE FINAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LAST WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY. WHILE PROFILES ARE COOLER...MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH SHOULD BE
BECOMING LESS INTENSE AS IT HEADS INTO THE CWA AS THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL
TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEHIND IT
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW
QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL
STICK WITH GENERAL BLEND AND KEEP A CHANCE GOING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
UPDATE IS TO EXPAND RED FLAG HEADLINES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
A PLUME OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IS HEADED IN FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER BEFORE IT ARRIVES BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED AROUND
850-750MB...CO LOCATED WITH THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR. AS THIS MIXES
OUT...HRRR AND RUC DEW POINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
THUS...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE OF HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE
COTEAU...AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP DOWN TO CRITERIA. THE WIND
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...AND PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PCPN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL DEPART THE REGION TODAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE WINDS SUPPORT A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP RH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT. WILL FORGO ISSUING A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE FOR SD...BUT WILL ISSUE ONE FOR OUR MINNESOTA
COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PAC
NW...WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT IN NOT REAL GREAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT IS BEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE GULF
OF MEXICO COULD BE OPEN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE SREF
INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD. THANKFULLY A GOOD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
COURSE OF A COUPLE OF DAYS IS NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THIS DISCREPANCY WILL IMPACT TIMING OF
PRECIP EXIT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SET UP A SHARP GRADIENT OF
RAIN/NO RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALL
PRECIP WILL EXIT.
TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH CLIMBING TOWARD 70 BY WED AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST TONIGHT AS WELL. VSBYS MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ272-273.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
126 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S/50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES VERSUS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO
CENTER OF UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WORKING UP THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. H-TRIPLE-R HAS ACTIVITY MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE MID STATE BY MIDNIGHT. BASICALLY KEPT TERMINALS VFR EXCEPT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THEY WILL GO DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE DUE TO
FOG.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................55/SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND CLOUDS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER NIGHT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT VCT AGAIN LATE
TNGT WITH LIFR ALSO PSBL AT ALI. QUICK IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AGAIN
AFTER 13-14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED A
LITTLE EARLY. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BUT
OVERALL THE PREV FCST APPEARS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH A WARM AND
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. CONCERNING
DENSE FOG...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADV FOR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS
VSBYS CONTINUE TO LOWER THERE. ALSO ADDED WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTY TO
ADVISORY. 11 TO 3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALVES OF WEBB/DUVAL COUNTIES AND
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH. FOG MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO CITY OF
LAREDO...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. /HART/.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND MID MRNG. AS OF WRITING....AREAS OF FOG
CONTINUE TO DVLP ACROSS S TX WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS XPCTD AT
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY DVLPNG INTO
KLRD SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT MAJORLY HIGH WITH FG
IMPACTING KLRD...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. KCRP MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHES OF IFR CIGS THRU MID MRNG...WITH KALI FLIRTING
WITH UPPER END IFR/LOW END MVFR VSBYS. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THE REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL FG/CIGS/POOR FLIGHT RULES
POSSIBLE AT KVCT/KLRD/KALI LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NRLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS GRADUALLY BECMG ESERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH EWX...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LA SALLE COUNTY EASTWARD TO
VICTORIA COUNTY. VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT 1/4 MILE AT KVCT WITH
MILITARY SITES ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF MCMULLEN COUNTY ALSO
REPORTING DENSE FOG. SREF...NARRE-TL...AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE
DENSE FOG EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THEN
PERSISTING UNTIL 14/15Z. GIVEN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS /WITH DRY AIR ALOFT/...I SEE
NO REASON TO DISCOUNT GUIDANCE. /HART/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NNE SFC WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AS OF
WRITING. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED SFC WINDS WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER
SUNRISE...FEEL THAT A PERIOD OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND S TX FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS/FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING TODAY. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID WARMUP TODAY. A
LITTLE UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...BUT ALL IN ALL
IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE WETTER SOILS SHOULD
SLIGHTLY LIMIT MAX HEATING POTENTIAL. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES...BUT TONIGHT SHOULD
STILL FEEL RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IF OUTDOORS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROG
TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AND AS SUCH I HAVE GONE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS...MAINLY OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY /MORE ESERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE EAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY/...WITH CONTINUED
DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AFTN (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT
INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THAT THE GFS DETERMINITIC PREDICT BRN VALUES
IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE ERN CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER LOW IS PREDICTED TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (PER
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
YET...PWAT VALUES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY (GFS DETERMINISTIC) SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTON. STRONG STORMS REMAIN PSBL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING
2500-3000 J/KG CAPE VALUES PER THE GFS DETERMINISTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 62 84 69 80 / 0 0 0 10 30
VICTORIA 83 61 82 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 87 64 90 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 30
ALICE 85 58 86 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 65 82 69 79 / 0 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 84 60 87 66 82 / 10 0 0 10 40
KINGSVILLE 85 62 85 68 81 / 0 0 0 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 67 81 70 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TJ/70...AVIATION