Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/13/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALL QUIET ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE. AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NE...A REMNANT MESOSCALE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL DROP SE INTO
CENTRAL TO SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE. SOME
STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTH AND SW
TOWARDS TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHR TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO AR
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP SE OVER AR. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
FRONT WILL THEN BE WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
DEVELOPING.
WILL HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING AS
DRIER...MORES STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE CALMER...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...
WHILE AN UPPER SHORT MOVES ACROSS AR. CURRENT MODELS DO INDICATED A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SLOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME DO TO UNCERTAINTY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND MOISTURE
LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE FORECAST WILL STAY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF
AR. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND OF A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 44 62 40 / 80 60 10 0
CAMDEN AR 77 52 67 47 / 80 80 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 39 60 37 / 80 40 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 51 64 45 / 80 80 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 49 64 43 / 80 80 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 52 66 46 / 80 80 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 50 65 44 / 80 80 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 41 62 38 / 80 40 0 0
NEWPORT AR 70 44 62 39 / 80 60 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 50 64 44 / 80 80 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 48 65 43 / 80 60 0 10
SEARCY AR 69 47 62 40 / 80 70 10 0
STUTTGART AR 72 48 63 42 / 80 80 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SUN APR 10 2016
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM...THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
TREK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BY 8
PM THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAD TRANSLATED INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL
AZ...AND WAS APPROACHING THE GLOBE AREA. WEAK AND FLAT RIDGING WITH
MODEST SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS
THE LOWER WESTERN DESERTS...BUT SO FAR HAD NOT RESULTED IN MUCH
CLEARING AS THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA/SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LED TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING SUNSET AND THE
LOW CENTER MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MORE STABLE...AND THE DVV SPREADING IN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS OF 830 PM. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...UNDER WEAK
RIDGING...WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF RAIN. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE RATHER MOIST...AND COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS
IN THE -17C TO -18C RANGE) WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN ONCE THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ALMOST AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR
REGION TODAY...RAINFALL CHANCES APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LESS THAN
THE WITH THE CURRENT ONE...SINCE THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THAT THE CURRENT ONE
HAS...AS INDICATED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST
GEFS/GFS IVT FORECAST GRAPHICS. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER...BUT
WILL OPT TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH...MAY ADD A VCSH MENTION SOMETIME AFTER
20Z IN THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL SEE ABOUT THAT.
FEEL THAT CIGS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 6K FEET FOR THE MOST PART AT
THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT VARIOUS
MODEL RH/UVV CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE
MAY BE LINGERING CIGS 5-7K FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES REMAIN QUITE HIGH. THE LOW DECKS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE ON THE FEW-SCT SIDE BUT CIGS MAY FORM AT ANY TIME.
ALSO...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES BY
THE SOUTH...CIGS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE DESERTS...AND COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 5K FEET ONCE AGAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT DIURNAL WINDS...FAVORING THE EAST LESS THAN 10KT FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...AND VEERING BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15KT POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL...AS ANOTHER LOW SWINGS BY TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. CIGS SHOULD GENLY STAY AOA 8K FEET TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST LOWER CLOUD DECKS MAINLY FEW-SCT...BUT COULD SEE
CIGS START TO REDEVELOP FROM 6-8K FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE NEXT
24 HOURS...FAVORING THE WEST AT KIPL AND THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
KBLH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING BACK UP WELL INTO THE
80S...OR EVEN CLOSE TO 90...A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SE-WARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AZ...AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-
25 PERCENT RANGE REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WIDEN
INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
OVER SE CA AND SW AZ. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD-
EXCELLENT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
906 PM PDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AN
OVERNIGHT COASTAL MARINE LAYER INTO MIDWEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A LOW WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH... THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION FOR GUSTY WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE VENTURA
MOUNTAINS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)
THERE WERE LINGERING STRATOCU THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE VTU COUNTY MTNS AND NWRN L.A. COUNTY
MTNS. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. AN EDDY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VLYS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS SOME HI CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MTNS AND SBA S COAST THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
GUSTY W WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT.
A BROAD WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FLAT UPPER RIDING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN
CA THRU WED. AN UPPER TROF OVER THE E PAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA WED NIGHT THEN SLIDE INLAND OVER THE STATE
ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OR ON THU...THEN SLIDE SE
INTO NV THU NIGHT AND INTO NRN AZ ON FRI.
ANY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE COAST/VLYS WED MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES WITH SOME MID
AND HI CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THRU FRI ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHO CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE N MTN SLOPES THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
THE BIGGER WX STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW
SLIDES JUST TO THE E OF THE AREA. THE NAM IS FORECASTING GUSTY NW TO
N WINDS LATER WED AFTERNOON THRU THU MORNING...WHICH COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES IN THE MTNS...SBA S COAST...AND ANTELOPE
VLY. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THU EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING...WITH WARNING LEVEL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE SBA/VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. THE NAM
IS FORECASTING 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 TO 55 KT DURING THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR LANCASTER FOX FIELD AT 5 PM THU
AFTERNOON WAS PREDICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF A WHOPPING 47 KNOTS...54
MPH! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...
BLOWING DUST AND SAND WILL BE LIKELY IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES. AT LOWER LEVELS...950 MB WINDS 30 TO 35 KT ARE
FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
SBA S COAST...SOME OF THE VTU COUNTY VLYS...SAN FERNANDO VLY...SANTA
CLARITA VLY...AND SANTA MONICA MTNS...ESPECIALLY BELOW AND THRU
PASSES AND CANYONS. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS EVENT...HIGH WIND
WATCHES AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS ON WED...THEN COOL OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THU TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL S AND W OF THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FRI MOST AREAS...BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)
NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. TEMPS
SATURDAY SHOULD JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DON`T LOOK ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. SO A WARM WEEKEND
ON TAP UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE GFS FASTER AND DEEPER WITH A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CA
AND THE PAC NW. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH COOLING WILL
TAKE PLACE, EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EITHER WAY NO PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...13/0015Z...
AT 2331Z...THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE BASE
AT AROUND 600 FT. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1300 FT WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEG C.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WED FOR
ALL THE COASTAL AND VLY AIRFIELDS. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF +/- ONE
TO TWO HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KSBA MAY NOT
HAVE ANY MVFR CIGS DURING THE FCST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE IS
FAIRLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE WED MORNING TO EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KSBA DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE
VICINITY. GUSTY NW WINDS AT KSBP AND KSMX WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
THEN INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. AT KWJF AND KPMD...HI CONFIDENCE
IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU WED AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF +/- ONE TO
TWO HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS FAIRLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 20Z WED...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU WED EVENING.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT INTO WED. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF +/- ONE TO
TWO HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS FAIRLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 18Z WED...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...12/800 PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH WED NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE POSTED FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ZONES 645 AND 650 (WESTERN
PORTION). NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU...AND WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE ENTIRE WATERS THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING LARGE AND CHOPPY
SEA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE SEAS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
905 PM PDT TUE APR 12 2016
.Synopsis...
Scattered showers are possible across the mountains and northern
Sacramento Valley through Wednesday. A colder system will bring
rain and snow to the area Wednesday night into Thursday with
possible thunderstorms. Warmer and drier Friday into the weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
A shortwave moving through the north end of the
state is producing some showers and Isolated thunderstorms from
near Orland northward into the Burney Basin. The HRRR model
indicated the activity will continue past midnight but gradually
move east into Plumas County around midnight before tapering
around 3 am. A few isolated afternoon showers may pop up in the
afternoon over the mountains in Plumas and Shasta County otherwise
expect dry conditions during the daytime.
A colder low pressure system will begin to move into the northern
end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall below
major pass levels with this system and result in some minor travel
impacts. Snow levels should fall on Thursday to between 4000 to
5500 feet. The NAM this evening has has precipitation amounts
around a tenth of an inch or less in the valley. The mountains
are indicating up to half an inch of precipitation. Unstable air
moving in Thursday morning may generate some thunderstorms in the
interior and local higher rainfall amounts. The GFS has amounts
close to the NAM this evening.
Any precipitation should taper off Thursday evening and high
pressure will build into the area for Friday. Slightly warmer with
breezy north winds look likely during the day for the valley.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Medium range models in agreement in formation of a Rex Block over
the 4-Corners and a strong ridge over the Wrn States at the onset of
the EFP. Max temps forecast to warm some 8 to 18 degrees above normal
Sat thru Mon...with Sun/Mon the warmest days. Max temps expected to
climb well into the 80s in the Valley and 60s/70s in the foothill/mtns.
Modeling differences Mon/Tue result in a high degree of uncertainty
as to how fast the ridge will break down...with the GFS the outlier
and the faster/more progressive model over the GEM/ECMWF. Prefer the
slower solutions due to the blocking pattern...and the formation
of what some mets affectionately refer to as "dumbbell lows"...two
closed lows roughly along the same parallel (latitude) and
separated by an amplified ridge...per the ECMWF. (This pattern can
also be seen with a large Omega Block over NOAM with the closed
lows near/off each coast and along the same parallel.)
Pressure gradients gradually weaken on Sat with N to E winds trending
downward. Winds further slacken on Sun as the ridge axis shifts over
NorCal.
NAEFS shows the trend of the positive height/temp anomalies will be
trending lower suggesting some cooling will occur on Tue. The amount
of cooling could be the greatest as the result of the Delta Breeze
through the Carquinez Strait/Srn Sac Vly. Maybe an isolated shower
or two over the far Nrn mtns on Tue as the ridge breaks down and
the flow turns cyclonic per the ECMWF...especially per the GFS.
JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions in the Valley although local CIGS 035-040
along Coast and into Valley. Local MVFR/IFR conditions in the
mountains and northern Sacramento Valley through tonight as rain
showers and a few thunderstorms move through the region.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
848 PM PDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS....NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:48 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A WEAK FRONT PASSING OVER THE NORTH BAY
AREA THIS EVENING. KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK
RETURNS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING
THE GROUND. THE PARENT STORM TO THIS FRONT IS APPARENT ON THE
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE AND IS CENTERED IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERLY QUADRANT OF THE PARENT LOW AS THE UPPERLEVEL JET
STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE PARENT LOW.
THE 1800Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING A FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING
SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WARM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THE WEATHER SCENARIO WELL AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:53 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE EPAC WILL BUILD OVER NORCAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
WINDS PERSIST...THE 01Z SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS 2.8 MB. SOME LOWER
LEVEL COOLING LINGERS FROM EARLIER TODAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO UNDERGO 2-4C COOLING AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RECENT GFS RUNS SHOW A WEAK AND SHALLOW COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING S-SE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. THUS EXPECTING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW CLOUDS CONVERGING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING; FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE HRRR AND NAM
MODELED QPF FORECASTS INDICATE DRY WX THROUGH WED MORNING.
A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH PRETTY GOOD NW WINDS PUSHING THIS FRONT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT TEMPO BKN MVFR CIGS TIL 05Z FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL
BKN MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT. THE WRF MODEL LEANS TOWARD INCREASING HUMIDITY
(AS WELL AS COOLING) WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
ONSHORE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BRING RETURN TO AT LEAST BKN CIGS BY
MID-LATE THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE CIGS LOWER
CLOSER TO IFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING IFR CIGS FOR LATE NIGHT/WED MORNING BY THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
COAST. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND PEAK ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
655 PM PDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS....DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S REGION-WIDE.
THUS, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE NOT WARMED AS MUCH AS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
ONGOING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH BAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTH BAY WHERE 0.15" TO 0.30" WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPWARDS OF 0.50" IN THE COASTAL RANGES. SOUTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.10" EXCEPT ACROSS
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND/OR "WASHOUT" AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
0.10" FOR THIS REGION WHILE SOME FAR INLAND AREAS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS THE
MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW (DRIVER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY) PUSHES
INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CLEARING SKIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE COOLER ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION. THE GFS PUSHES THE RIDGE
INLAND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND COOLS
TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE THROUGH AND
CLOSED OFF LOW WEST OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME, WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AND SHOW A SLIGHT LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:53 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE EPAC WILL BUILD OVER NORCAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
WINDS PERSIST...THE 01Z SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS 2.8 MB. SOME LOWER
LEVEL COOLING LINGERS FROM EARLIER TODAY AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO UNDERGO 2-4C COOLING AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RECENT GFS RUNS SHOW A WEAK AND SHALLOW COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING S-SE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. THUS EXPECTING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW CLOUDS CONVERGING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING; FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE HRRR AND NAM
MODELED QPF FORECASTS INDICATE DRY WX THROUGH WED MORNING.
A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH PRETTY GOOD NW WINDS PUSHING THIS FRONT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT TEMPO BKN MVFR CIGS TIL 05Z FOLLOWED BY MARGINAL
BKN MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT. THE WRF MODEL LEANS TOWARD INCREASING HUMIDITY
(AS WELL AS COOLING) WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH
ONSHORE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BRING RETURN TO AT LEAST BKN CIGS BY
MID-LATE THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE CIGS LOWER
CLOSER TO IFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO OR
PREVAILING IFR CIGS FOR LATE NIGHT/WED MORNING BY THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE
COAST. NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND PEAK ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 10 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 4 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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THAT WILL FOLLOW IN LATER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING
INTO THE THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING. AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER SE CA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL CA. THE DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG
THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPIS THIS
EVENING. THUS ANY STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FOCUS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL BE IN A COL AN AREA OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
AND ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
TRYING TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN CA. HIGH PWAT IS EXPECTED TO
STILL BE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 8000 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY.
A COLDER GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS IT REACHING THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS TREND IS A DRIER SCENARIO THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH AND MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE FROM WINDS THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 15Z MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 19Z MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MV
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.Synopsis...
Mountain showers will continue early this week with another round
of showers over the entire area around mid week.
&&
.Discussion...
Showers diminishing this evening as they drop southwest from the
Sierra. Only isolated showers the rest of the night...mainly over
the mountains. Otherwise...skies will remain mostly cloudy with
light winds. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.Previous Discussion...
Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to
move east. An area of thunderstorms over Lassen County is moving
southwest and may impact Plumas and Shasta Counties later this
afternoon and evening. Snow level will continue to be high and
near 8000 feet but may lower to near 7000 in heavier convection.
the HRRR indicates a good chance that showers will spread west and
into the north end of the valley this evening. Conditions over the
southern half of the CWA should mostly be dry but could see some
isolated showers and sprinkles.
A low along 135W will get sheared apart as it moves towards
Northern California. The southern end will form a low over
Southern California on Monday and help to continue to produce
showers over the northern end of the state...mostly over the
mountains.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
provide enough moisture and instability to bring some showers to
the far northern end of the State and the north end of the valley
and surrounding mountains.
A colder low pressure system will begin to moving into the
northern end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall
below major pass levels with this system and result in travel
impacts.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Colder system will continue to move across NorCal on Thursday with
precipitation across most of the area. Models still indicate
heaviest precipitation will fall over the mountains with snow
levels down to around 4000-4500 feet. This will likely cause
travel impacts through the day Thursday. System begins to shift
east Thursday night into Friday with only a few lingering mountain
showers. Ridging will then build in across the state with drier
weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the weekend.
Valley temperatures may be back into the 80s by Saturday. This
pattern also lends itself to some breezy northerly winds across
the Coastal Range and western side of the Valley. Have removed
precip chances from late Saturday into Sunday as it looks like
models have backed off on the next wave which will still be out
over the Pacific into early next week.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers through late this evening, especially
across the NorCal mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.
MVFR/IFR low clouds may continue across Valley TAF sites into
Monday. South winds will remain 10 kts or less.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
848 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STRETCHES FM JUST EAST OF AKRON TO
JUST SOUTHWEST OF LIMON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LESSEN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE SAME AREAS
ALTOGETHER. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE WEAKENING AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRETTY
MUCH AS EXPECTED. TERRAIN AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...ONE
FROM THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND
ANOTHER NEAR THE WY/COLORADO BORDER...HAVE DRIVEN CONVECTION.
THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30-35 MPH NEAR ANY OF THE
SHOWERS...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME PEA SIZED
HAIL/GRAUPEL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THEN
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...OVERALL THE AIRMASS STABILIZES A BIT FROM TODAY
WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR WEATHER
FORECASTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND THREATS
OF HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW ARE GOING TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AT TIMES. UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING
HOW COLD THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO EVENTUALLY GET. FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN WARMER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW
COOLER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
RUN ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS SHOULD SEE
MOST OF THIS FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ON THE PLAINS...PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH A MIXES OF RAIN OR SNOW OR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE PLAINS.
CIPS ANALOG DATA FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY SHOWS THAT THE
WEATHER PATTERN BEING FORECAST THIS WEEKEND HAS PRODUCED HEAVY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING PAST STORMS. THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN HAS ALSO GENERATED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN PAST EVENTS. ONCE AGAIN...
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS STORM OVER THE WEEKEND IS GOING
TO BE THE BIG WILD CARD. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE USED TO
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL BRING THE WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TAKING
POSITION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MOIST GULF OF MEXICO AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BE DRAWN INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH GOOD HELICITY IN
THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...INITIATING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FOOTHILLS. INITIAL QPF FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AT THAT TIME.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT TIME PERIODS CONTAIN SNOW DOWN
ON THE PLAINS. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AS WATCH...WARNING
AND ADVISORY DECISIONS ARE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
LINGERING ILS CIGS AT KAPA THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFTING TO A
NORMAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-14 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...A LITTLE STRONGER AT KDEN BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE
SHOWERS DISSIPATE SOUTH OF DENVER LATER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A LOWER THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS TOMORROW SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WINDS MOST LIKELY TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 6-12
KNOTS 17Z-21Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
227 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE
NJ...NYC METRO...AND LI WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BASED
ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY...SOME OF THIS CLEARING WILL WORK NE INTO
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. THIS HAS ALLOWED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE MARITIME INFLUENCE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
60S. THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPOTS WITH THE LOW
TO MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY EVENING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 08Z TUESDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT MVG NE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC WITH NO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL NEAR 08Z
TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FCST WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 08Z WEST UNTIL
NEARLY 16Z EAST.
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGHEST FROM JFK/LGA EAST...SUSTAINED
S WINDS ARND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT UNTIL 23Z.
WINDS TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT JFK/LGA
EAST UNTIL 09Z.
WINDS TUESDAY...SHIFT FROM THE WNW FOLLOWING CFP AT 15-20 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 11Z TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE AFTN...RAIN ENDING SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY
22Z...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NNW 10-15KT.
.WED...VFR. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.THU-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 10-15 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
125 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1147 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC/24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
955 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT KSWF
UNTIL 22Z.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 16Z...MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF NYC. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH
COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING
FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25 KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S AFT 04Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC
INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC/24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
759 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN
THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT TUE MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOW CHC OF KHPN BRIEFLY DROPPING TO
MVFR THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOPING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING
FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S AFT 04Z AS LLJ DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD
ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT
WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST
AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO
OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT
UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.
RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS
DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS
LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE
AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z/MON.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING...MOST REMAIN VFR FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
DESPITE THE RAIN. ALSO...THE LATEST RAP13 SUGGESTS RH VALUES AT
AND BELOW 925 MB REMAIN BELOW 70 PERCENT...SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PERSISTS TO LIMIT CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR OR
BELOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SO...FOR LATEST TAFS...HAVE DELAYED
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AT KGFL
AND KPSF. STILL EXPECTED OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB- KPSF.
AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND OF 8-12 KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS AT
KALB...WITH LESS GUSTINESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AS A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KGFL/KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
AT LESS THAN 10-12 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KT.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LLWS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST
SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER.
RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
655 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN
THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS
AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD
ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT
WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST
AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO
OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT
UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.
RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS
DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS
LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE
AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN/SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL
IN VFR TERRITORY. HOWEVER...EXPECTATIONS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LOWERING OF AT LEAST THE CIGS
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS/RAIN...IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO
PLACE IN THE TAFS AS WE WILL KEEP THE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB-
KPSF.
AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20KTS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. THE QUESTION WILL BE LLWS
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST
SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER.
RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS
AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM
FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS.
MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS
MORNING.
S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ
EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN
REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THUS...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT UPPER 40S NYC METRO.
S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE
LATE TNGT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NW. INCREASING THETAE SO
A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES.
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM
FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS.
MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS
MORNING.
S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ
EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF SCA ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO START MON
MORNING.
SLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON
NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
558 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCLUDES
SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY, GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL PA, WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS
ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE I-95
WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I
THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY PERIODS
THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED MORE
ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING
UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO
THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH
TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH.
SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.9 INCHES TODAY.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED ABOVE THIS
BLEND BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING
THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS
10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS. DEWPOINTS WERE
RAISED IN THE 630 AM FCST FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BY BLENDING
THE 06Z/11 NAM 2M DEWS WITH THE PHI FCST. THIS ALSO IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. ALSO RAISED POPS TONIGHT IN THIS 630
AM FCST UPDATE AND WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN` I-95
NWWD LATE TONIGHT. THIS BECAUSE SREF AVERAGED PWAT INCREASES TO
1.25 INCHES BY MORNING AND A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN
A 3 HOUR PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS
FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS EVENING THEN VFR CIGS DEVELOP
LATE AT NIGHT, PROBABLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN MDT SHOWERS AFTER
08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN
THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG 558
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 558
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
518 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
MEASURABLE I-95 WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING
UP AND I THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY
PERIODS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED
MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS
MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING
UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO
THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH
TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BL
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH.
SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.8 TODAY.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER BY
THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING
THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS
10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS. I DID RAISE POPS TONIGHT
IN THIS 630 AM FCST UPDATE AND THE WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN` I-95 NWWD LATE TONIGHT WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.2
INCHES, A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP
LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE
IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS
FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
MDT SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN
THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 517A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 517A
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND
MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE
TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS
TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM
BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK,
AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY
FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME
SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE
ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30
MPH.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11
UKMET QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST
LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR
ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND
E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET
TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OFFSHORE. THIS LOW MAY EVENTUALLY BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND
MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE
TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS
TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM
BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK,
AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY
FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME
SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE
ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30
MPH.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11
UKMET QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST
LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SLOWLY AS WELL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AROUND A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL REGION- WIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A OMEGA BLOCK IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VARIOUS SYSTEMS BEING STUBBORN TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELING AND TO SOME EXTENT VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TO LINGER OR BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE END RESULTS WOULD BE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW, INCREASED CLOUDS, COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE LARGER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW WE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN WE`RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WITH MODEL DATA WILL STILL OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR
ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND
E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY
LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET
TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS FROM 25-30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE DAY BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE ALSO FROM FIVE TO SEVEN FEET CURRENTLY MODELED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NOT MUCH OF A LULL MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
WHEN THE FRONT THAT LED TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS
TUESDAY MOVES EAST AND A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY RAMP-UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND OVER 25 KNOTS. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 251
SHORT TERM...DRAG 251
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 251
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 251
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1059 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SPC HRRR. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. N/NE WINDS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED AHEAD
OF IT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR
RATHER DRY AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND ESPECIALLY THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS CLOUD COVER...TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CSRA.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CSRA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY...FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS AN OMEGA BLOCK KEEPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. DEEPENING MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE OMEGA BLOCK ERODING AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW
BASICALLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. EITHER WAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE INCLUDES CHANGES DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING AN AREA
OF FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SC...WITH VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES LESS THAN A HALF A MILE. MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A REAL
GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA. SREF PROBS
SHOWING NOTHING IN CURRENT FOG AREA...BUT IT DOES TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME FOG FURTHER SOUTH AFTER 06Z. THE HRRR INDICATES ISOLATED
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT 03Z...MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. THE
HRRR DOES EXPAND THE LOWER VISIBILITIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
08Z...OVER OGB...AND BRUSHING CLOSE TO CAE/CUB. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB...BUT AN CONCERNED WITH
OGB...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 06Z-08Z FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT THAT LOCATION. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT HAVE NOT LOWERED VISIBILITIES ANYWHERE ELSE.
AS FOR CEILINGS...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS LOW END VFR TO UPPER END
MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON
BOTH HOW STRONG THE EASTERLY WINDS BECOME...AND IF ANY OVERRUNNING
CAN SETUP...LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE WEDGE FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAGS AND KDNL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION...WHICH FORMED ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST SPC HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION SHOULD END 02Z-04Z. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING. N/NE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED AHEAD
OF IT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR
RATHER DRY AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND ESPECIALLY THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS CLOUD COVER...TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CSRA.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CSRA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY...FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS AN OMEGA BLOCK KEEPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. DEEPENING MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE OMEGA BLOCK ERODING AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW
BASICALLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. EITHER WAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL MOVING OUT OF THE PIEDMONT AND INTO
THE NORTHERN CSRA THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARDS AGS/DNL. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF TS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY.
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER...AND ON THE CEILING HEIGHT. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
LOW END VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON BOTH HOW STRONG THE EASTERLY WINDS
BECOME...AND IF ANY OVERRUNNING CAN SETUP...LATER TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY AT ALL
SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAGS AND KDNL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
111 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE
COAST...BUT LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE DATA SUGGEST CLEARING WITH
THE SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY TRENDS. ALSO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT CLOSER THE COAST PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS FINE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM
SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES
LOOK ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST.
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF
I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE
EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT
SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING--A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH
AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE
THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN
IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1008 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM
SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES
LOOK ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST.
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF
I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER70S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE
EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT
SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL RISK OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH
AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE
THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN
IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1257 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
218 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW
PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV
ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND
ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES
EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND
ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND
MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE
WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW
INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
218 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE...
HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES
WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT
STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING
SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS
WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME
70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE
LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE
50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN
NW INDIANA.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME SFC WARMING...DEEPER MIXING IS
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THAT GUSTS SHOULD
END WITH SUNSET. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...THE
BUILDING HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH SKIES
BECOMINGMOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE ADJACENT LAND...A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO FORM...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NELY-ELY AROUND 10KT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO
QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1252 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Updated the forecast this morning to have showers south of I-72
with isolated thunderstorms from I-70 southeast, diminishing
quicker from nw to se during mid/late afternoon. Also issued a
freeze warning overnight until 9 am Tuesday for central IL north
of I-70 with lows 28-32F. Highs today range from the lower 50s
from Peoria and Bloomington north, to the upper 50s in southeast
IL.
15Z/10 am surface map shows the cold front in far southeast IL
approaching the Mount Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county.
1012 mb low pressure was along this front in southern IL with
another 1012 mb low pressure near the AR/MO border as this frontal
boundary extended sw into nw AR. A widespread area of showers was
south of I-72 this morning with pockets of moderate to heavier
rain showers. Most of the thunderstorms are now southeast of
Lawrence county ahead of the cold front. Mid/high clouds have
thickened up over northern CWA during the morning while low/mid
overcast skies from I-72 south with the rain showers.
Latest forecast models take cold front southeast to the Ohio river
during this afternoon while weak low pressures move ne along it.
Shower chances to gradually diminish and end from nw to se during
the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible southeast of
I-70 for a couple more hours into early afternoon. The little
wabash river at Clay City expected to rise above flood stage
during this afternoon, while the Embarras river at Lawrenceville
is forecast to rise above flood stage by mid evening. Temperatures
at 1030 am range from lower 40s from Peoria northward to the mid
50s in Lawrence county. Cloud decrease north of I-72 during
mid/late afternoon to allow temps to rise about another 10 degrees
into the lower 50s, while clouds and rain showers most of the day
keep temps nearly steady in southeast IL where highs in the mid to
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
A cold front pushing southeast toward the Ohio river early this
afternoon, will push southeast into central KY by sunset, while
weak 1012 mb low pressure in southeast MO and near Evansville IN
lift ne along this boundary. Large area of rain showers south of
I-72 may bring isolated light showers to DEC and CMI for another
hour or two before exiting se of central IL, and carried VCSH to
accomodate this with broken to overcast mid level clouds around
10k ft. Otherise VFR conditions expected during the next 24 hours
across central IL as 1026 mb Canadian high pressure near the
Sasketchewan and Manitoba province line and ridging southward
across the Dakotas, drifts southeast into southeast WI/eastern IA
and nw IL by 18Z/1 pm Tue. Broken cirrus clouds early this
afternoon will scattered out between 21-24Z from nw to se and then
clear skies expected tonight into Tue. Breezy nw winds 10-16 kts
and gusts of 17-23 kts to diminish to around 10 kts late this
afternoon and then 4-7 kts after sunset this evening. Winds then
veer more NE 6-9 kts Tue morning. No fog expected overnight with
nw winds advecting in drier Canadian air as dewpoints slip into
the low to mid 20s by dawn Tue over central IL.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
626 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
218 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW
PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV
ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND
ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES
EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND
ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND
MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE
WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW
INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
218 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE...
HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES
WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT
STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING
SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS
WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME
70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE
LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE
50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN
NW INDIANA.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
626 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST BUT STILL SOME LINGERING FOG/PATCHY LOW CIGS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH MAY AFFECT GYY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO
QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Little change in thinking from previous forecast. A period of
VLIFR conditions can be expected over parts of the TAF area late
tonight into the early morning hours due to low clouds and fog
just ahead of the cold front, which at this hour was just west
of PIA. Once the front shifts east of the area, we expect improving
conditions to work their way from northwest to southeast during
the early morning hours. VFR conditions should begin to affect the
PIA area around 10z and by 16z in our far eastern TAF site, CMI.
Rain with isold TSRA can be expected mainly south of a SPI to
CMI line over the next few hours just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, as the front settles southeast across the state, we
expect precip chances to decrease from northwest to southeast
during the early morning hours. Light south to southwest winds
ahead of the cold front will become northwest to north after the
frontal passage later tonight with speeds on Monday ranging from
10 to 15 kts with a few afternoon gusts around 20 kts at times
before diminishing quickly around 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE
BLOCK FOR THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH OVER QUEBEC
WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
THUS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREEING...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S LATE WEEK AND LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF
AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY
CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE
THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO
9 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF
AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY
CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE
THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO
9 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...IMPROVING
AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
929 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
JUST WEST OF THE SIOUXLAND AREA...IT HAS BECOME HARDER TO
CONTINUE CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER NRN IA INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WITH THE RAP ALSO SHOWING PRECIP. THUS HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVER NRN IA 06-10Z FOR A
START.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
RATHER QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON TAP. ONLY REAL CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT RAIN CLIPS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW NO PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH I SUSPECT WILL BE THE CASE IN NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING WITH DRY LAYER DEPTH AROUND 6 KFT AND BETTER LIFT FURTHER
NORTH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING. LOWS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE BOOSTED
A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST THIS EVENING IF WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A
COUPLE KTS OVER GUIDANCE AS THEY WERE THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPS AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MIGRATING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST JUMP IN TEMPS
SHOULD BE FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND HIGHS WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HIGHS WILL WARM JUST A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEGINNING SATURDAY A LARGE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INCH INTO THE ROCKIES BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD
TOUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THE FRINGE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN IOWA AND LOCATIONS WEST BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS DIFFER AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE HIGH STRONGLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WHILE THE EURO
SHOVES THE HIGH FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO WORK IT`S WAY
MORE INTO IOWA. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW HOWEVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES.
FOR MONDAY THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
THIS WILL ACT TO EITHER MOVE OR FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK BETTER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAKOTAS/MN
SYSTEM MAY JUST CLIP NRN IA TONIGHT WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE...REMAINING SLY...BUT A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY
WED MORNING NORTH NEAR KMCW AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASE
AHEAD OF SD LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP
TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE
BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY.
THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY
AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING
THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY
NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON.
WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE
WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN
QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S.
CUTOFF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COLD FRONT PASSING INTO NORTHERN IOWA NOW WILL INCREASE NW
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE AFT
14Z WITH GUSTS 15-30 KTS OVER NORTHERN SITES KALO/KMCW. CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON
TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST
1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE
PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
812 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO DELAY MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
AREA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. WHILE A STORM OR TWO MAY REACH OUR FAR
WESTERN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WON`T
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 6Z. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS A BIT TO DELAY ONSET
OF RAIN A FEW HOURS. 22/TD
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS MEASURED AT 1.30 INCHES THIS
EVENING...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL. THE PW IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH WITH A BIT OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS THE FRONT IS
IN THE VICINITY OF KASD. MOST OF THAT DRY AIR IS BETWEEN 9300 AND
18000 FEET WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOSTERING
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000
FEET. BELOW THESE CLOUD BASES...WINDS ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN ABOVE 3000 FEET WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OR WEST. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 115 KNOTS WAS AT 43100
FEET.
00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT ASCENDING FOR 104
MINUTES AND TRAVELED 65 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE BURSTING
SOUTH OF HORN ISLAND AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.
ANSORGE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/
SHORT TERM...
MULTI DAY RAIN EVENT IS SET TO UNFOLD THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING WE HAVE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS THE
STAGE FOR A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHER
HI RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THAT PLAYING OUT
BUT THEY DO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN
ISSUE AT ALL THE MAIN THREAT IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
OCCUR. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS...A
SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AND STALLED FRONT ALL POINT TO PRETTY DECENT
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WHICH MEANS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON TOMORROW AND THEY
ALSO HAVE THAT SAME OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WPC ALSO EXPECTS A SWATH OF 4
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SO WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS REACHING UP TO 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
FOR NOW WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ALTHOUGH IT WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WE
THINK THE GROUND CAN HANDLE A LITTLE BIT MORE RAINFALL BEFORE IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE...HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS EVENT AS
IT UNFOLDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BEING ISSUED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 13/MH
LONG TERM...
BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT THESE RUNS SUGGEST THE WE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR STORM BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE BLOCK. TRENDING EXTENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. 13/MH
AVIATION...
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND KHUM. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
ADVECTS IN ALOFT. OVERALL...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK RANGING FROM
2500 TO 4500 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...AFTER 06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PUSH CEILINGS BACK BELOW 500 FEET AT
MOST TERMINALS BY 09Z. THESE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW...AS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPS. /32/
MARINE...
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. BY FRI HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ERLY/ONSHORE FLOW LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCS OR
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE
PERSISTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN
TIDAL ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 70 58 75 / 70 100 60 50
BTR 62 73 61 76 / 80 100 60 60
ASD 63 73 62 75 / 80 100 60 70
MSY 66 74 64 75 / 80 100 60 70
GPT 64 71 63 72 / 80 100 60 70
PQL 62 73 61 73 / 70 100 60 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN SHRA/TSRA ACTION REMAINS ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST. NAM12 SHOWS WE SHOULD BE
COVERED WITH TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C & S LA NOW WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
WHERE IT SUPPOSED TO BE. THUS...USING HRRR AS A GUIDE FOR LATER
CONVECTION TIMING ACROSS C LA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FOR
AEX...TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BETWEEN 06-09Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND INTERMITTENT LIFR
BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR ALL SITES. FRONT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH AEX
AFTER DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
14-15Z.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO RUN UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT THAT
EXTENDS BACK INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL HANG UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK AND HIGHER MOISTURES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS INLAND.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HAVE PASSED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
COOL FRONT AS IT MAKES IT WAY TO THE COASTLINE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL RAMP UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGNITE AS OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. RAINS WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
A COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL FRONT WILL
STALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MEANDER IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 65 73 56 71 / 50 20 30 50
LCH 69 80 60 72 / 30 20 60 80
LFT 70 79 63 73 / 40 30 50 80
BPT 68 80 61 72 / 20 20 70 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1018 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING RADAR TRENDS AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-
DAY...AND THEN EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A LULL IN
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE
STABLE RAIN COOLED AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE WELL DISPLACED
FROM THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTIVE
RISK SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR AND
SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD ALOFT. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA IS
DRIVING CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS ONSHORE FLOW
HAS PICKED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS MORNING AND DEW POINTS NEAR
60.
SHORT TERM...
OUR SPELL OF DRY WEATHER IS ABOUT TO END. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...REACHING NEAR
THE MEMPHIS AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...WITH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BAND OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED
SCENARIO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK...WITH A FEW COUNTIES/PARISHES NORTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE IN A SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDINGS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BETTER LOOK.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE NEAR MEMPHIS AT 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...AND WILL CARRY LOWER POPS ON TUESDAY. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EARLY IN THE DAY.
MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOWER AS
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. MAIN
THREAT WITH WEDNESDAY CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE LAST WEEK...SO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN. 35
LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE DETAILS A LITTLE MURKY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
GETS HUNG UP OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE
GETTING SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA. CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
COMPLETELY DRY PERIOD...AND WILL TREND A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE FOR LOWS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...BUT ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35
AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST LOWER CEILINGS INITIALLY AND THEN LEADING TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
FOG FORMATION IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55.
98/SO
MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR SO SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL
PERSIST. 98/SO
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 65 74 57 / 70 60 40 10
BTR 79 67 79 60 / 60 50 40 20
ASD 77 68 78 62 / 60 50 50 10
MSY 78 68 79 65 / 50 50 50 20
GPT 76 68 76 62 / 60 50 50 10
PQL 77 68 76 62 / 60 60 50 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1255 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO
REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
941 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO
REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CANNON
MARINE...ARNOTT/CANNON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS RAIN...POSSIBLY ENDING AS
A PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COASTAL LOW MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES...HOWEVER EVEN IN THESE
LOCATIONS DEW POINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE TEENS. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW
FOR A PTYPE LATER TONIGHT...WITH EVEN THE LATEST HRRR BRINGING IN
JUST A COUPLE PIXELS OF FZRA TO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
MONITOR FOR FREEZING PCPN VERY CLOSELY AND MOST LIKELY ISSUE AN
SPS FOR ANY SMALL AREA THAT DEVELOPS. MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THIS
PRECIP IN AROUND 09Z...HOWEVER SUBLIMATION COULD OCCUR ON THE
FRONT END.
PREV DISC...
925 PM UPDATE: WAA OVERUNNING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. SO ALTHOUGH
RADAR SHOWING PCPN SPREADING ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO VERMONT...IT
APPEARS THIS IS PRIMARILY ALOFT. AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO STURATE THE LOWER LEVELS SO OVERALL TIMING OF
ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NH ALTHOUGH BUMPED UP THE
LOW POPS OVER WESTERN NH A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN CASE A FEW
FLURRIES MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THOSE DRY LOWER LAYERS A LITTLE
SOONER THAN ADVERTISED. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN TOLERANCE OF
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS DATA.
615 PM UPDATE...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. WAA HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE EVENING WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A WAA
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...IF WINDS GO
CALM QUICK ENOUGH...SOME SPOTS MAY RADIATE PRETTY WELL. FOR THIS
REASON I BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS
WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE THE COLDER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO
WESTERN ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE CT RIVER BY 4
OR 5 AM. THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NH AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ME BY 8 AM OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL
NH WHERE IT WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IF ANYTHING
FALLS AT ALL THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINE EARLY AND
MID MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS BEFORE LIGHT RAIN TAKES
OVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NH...AND PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN LATE IN
THE MORNING. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE TRACE
AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIKELY OFFER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
THEREFORE...NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE DAY FOR ALL.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN MONDAY MORNING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS IN PLACE DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THE EASTERN TROUGH
WILL DELIVER ONE MORE COLD SHOT TO THE AREA MID WEEK BEFORE RISING
HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING BLOCK BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...
MODELS TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHIFTED THE BLOCK A BIT FURTHER
WEST...LEAVING THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED LOW VERSUS THE
PREFERRED UPPER RIDGE. THIS CHANGE HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN THE DAILIES...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT IS NOW SLOWER TO EXIT THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...AND IT`S POSSIBLE
THAT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE
A BIT TO THE WEST WITH CLOUDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC
WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD SPELL AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WESTERN NH WHERE MARGINAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MAY OCCUR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
ON MONDAY LIGHT LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT MONDAY. LOWERING
CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR MONDAY NIGHT IN RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG.
LONG TERM...
TUE -WED AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB.
THU...SCT MVFR PSB IN SHRA. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT.
FRI......AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB.
NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
ALLOWS FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS WELL.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
TUE...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE
THE BAYS.
WED...SMALL CRAFT COND ARE PSB.
THU - FRI...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE
THE BAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. NO PROBLEMS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WATERS AND WAVES
BUILDING...THE 330 AM HIGH TIDE TUESDAY /10.9 FT MLLW AT PORTLAND/
MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ151.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER THE GRTLKS THIS EVNG...BUT ITS INFLUENCE
STARTING TO BE FELT IN THE MID ATLC. CLR SKIES AND LOW DEWPTS BOTH
FAVOR TEMPS DROPPING. WINDS REMAIN THE WILD CARD. RECENT WRF GDNC
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE A 2NDRY CAA SURGE ARND 01-02Z. WE SHALL SEE
IF ITS REALIZED. BASED ON LAMP...MIN-T LOOKING REASONABLE.
THEREFORE WONT MAKE ANY CHGS TO IT OR THE FROST ADVY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WED THRU THURS
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...EXPECTING TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM
BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND ON THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FROST
POTENTIAL AGAIN WED NIGHT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. BY THURS...THE POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST AGAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
HIGHS WED BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BY THURS TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY HIGH PRESSURE
STATIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE SPIRALING
OVER THE OPEN WEST ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST MAY
NUDGE THIS HIGH A BIT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT MAY DROP IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
DELAYING A RETURN TO MORE MILDER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD THRU THURS NIGHT. NW FLOW
DIMINISHING...BUT STILL HV 10-15 KT SUSTAINED FLOW ATTM. WL DROP
TO 8 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. N FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS CONTINUE WED
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND LASTING
THRU THURS.
SUB-VFR PSBL W/ ANY LWR CIGS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND IN ELY
FLOW...GNLY 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ON THE UPPER TIDAL PTMC...SCA CONDS CONTD BYD PREV EXPIRATION
TIME. WRF GDNC SUGGESTED A 2NDRY SURGE 01-02Z...WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY RAP ABV SFC INVSN. ON THE WATERS DONT BELIEVE THE
INVSN WL BE AS BIG OF AN INFLUENCE...SO EXTENSION CONTS TIL 1AM.
WNDS HV SINCE DIMINISHED. WL SEE IF SURGE INDEED COMES TO
FRUITION. IF NOT...WL NEED TO MAKE ADDTL ADJUSTMENTS.
NLY CHANNELING WL AFFECT THE BAY/MOUTH OF THE PTMC THRU THE
NGT...AND MID BAY/LWR PTMC THRU WED MRNG. LIKE PREV FCSTR...DONT
HV THE CONFIDENCE TO GO BYD THAT ATTM.
A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE CHURNING OUT AT SEA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
503-505-507.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
040-501-505>508.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-541>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DFH
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
807 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING EVEN
THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AND CMX MAINLY
AFTER 12Z/WED. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW TIL LATE
WED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND S TO SE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO TREND
DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTN...THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR THIS EVENING. AT
KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN
MVFR THRU TONIGHT. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT
TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 35KT AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
/1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT
WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE
SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS
QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN.
THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE
FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN
CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL
RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE AVE.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW
PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST.
BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN
KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF
WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE
SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE
DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX
WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH
AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT
MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS FAR SW
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE KIML AND/OR KOGA
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE IS FIXED ON SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS AT MOST WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS BEYOND 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F
TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH
THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND
OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z
WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH.
AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB
FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE
LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN
FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OPERATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT
700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN
THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE
OVERCAST SATURDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN
CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY
BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF KOGA TO KLBF
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
SKIES WILL GRADUALL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO LAST LONG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE
NORTH FLOW AT KJMS TO START THE PERIOD BUT DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 18-20 UTC AT KBIS
AND KMOT. WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT KDIK AND KISN. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
EACH SITE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO LAST LONG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BROUGHT AN
MVFR CEILING INTO KMOT. LOOKS LIKE KBIS AND KJMS COULD SEE UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND
CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND
INCLUDING AROUND KJMS BEFORE 15 UTC...OTHERWISE GOOD VFR WEATHER
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING
IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY 03Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL TAFS SITES BUT TOL AND LOWER CIG AND
VSBY TO IFR OR LIFR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
00Z. TOL SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 23Z. CLEARING
WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING VSBY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z
AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND THUS RH VALUES FARTHER WV COAL FIELDS AND
SW VA WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SW VA IN COORD WITH VA DEPT OF FORESTRY.
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH
VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS.
TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE
TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A
SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING
IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH
VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS.
TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE
TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A
SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA IS STARTING OFF IN THE 49-52 DEGREE RANGE
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE/MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SWATH OF
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A
SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN
THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN
INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND
ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR
ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A
SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN
THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN
INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND
ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR
ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...FIRST
REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND KERI BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR 10Z...IN THE FAST FLOW...WILL JUST BE A BIT FASTER INCREASING
POPS 21Z TO 23Z IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
AND SWINGING EAST THIS EVENING.
....REST FROM THE 08Z RELEASE...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 122Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY...BEFORE WEAKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE THROUGH 20Z...
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z TRI STATE VCNTY HTS...INCLUDING
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 22Z TO 08Z.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY INCLUDING KBKW.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 20Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE A HOUR OR SO FASTER ON FRONT...THEN FIGURED BACK FOR THE 06Z
SET OF TAFS...NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 04Z...CRW TO CKB
AROUND 05/06Z...AND THRU MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING 09Z TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
INCLUDING KHTS AND KPKB...AND EVEN INTO KCKB IN NORTH CENTRAL WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY VCNTY KHTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY.
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z.
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z GFS.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS
IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
4106 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY.
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z.
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z GFS.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS
IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ANY OREGON WEST SIDE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE WILL GENERALLY BY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES. EAST SIDE TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL END. WE`RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MUCH WARMER SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS RISE TO 12-13C ON
SATURDAY, THEN JUMP TO 15-16C ON SUNDAY. SO, BY SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM,
EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO BE A BIT FAST. THUS, HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW A WEAKER, SLOWER SHORTWAVE
AND A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR CIGS FROM THE SHASTA REGION EAST
TO MODOC COUNTY WILL ALSO LIFT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH
LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 145 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS TO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/18/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
825 AM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY...SEE
THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH FROM ABOUT THE WINTER RIM AREA OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES AND THE MODOC PLATEAU WESTWARD IN THE USUALLY MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. MOST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
0.50" TO 1.5" RANGE. 0.25" TO 0.75" WILL FALL IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
IT IS SPRING...THE TIME FOR VARIED WEATHER OVER THE AREA...AND A
RETURN TO DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS IS ON DECK FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE THURSDAY HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS ARE AT THE
COAST...COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN
MVFR BUT LIFT TO VFR INLAND LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM IS STILL A
THREAT FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.
/SVEN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL BECOMING HIGH
AND STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAT
MAY PRODUCE GALES AND SEAS APPROACHING 17 FEET. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REACH A PEAK WITH ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT WAVE
WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO OVER
24 FEET THURSDAY. MODELS ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSTANT WITH THIS
VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
AS WELL. /SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
15/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA
INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF
ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE
SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED
MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1"
OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.
NO LARGE CHANGES MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE
MVFR/IFR INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA
INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF
ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE
SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED
MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1"
OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
236 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS AT 06Z SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. RETURNS FURTHER
EAST TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY ARE MAINLY ALOFT AS THE PRECIP STRUGGLES
TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THE LLVL 15-20 T/TD SPREADS.
EXPECT THE LLVLS TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN-UP AND COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MUCH OF THE REGION SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
COULD STAY MAINLY DRY AFTER 14Z.
LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WERE REACHED SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE
OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BY ANOTHER 4 OR
5F AS THE RAIN INITIALLY EVAPORATES IN/COOLS THE DRY LLVLS.
NATIONAL BLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST
LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS
CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S.
2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ...AND 1-2 SIGMA PWAT AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND
REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE
OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS
RAINFL RANGING FROM NEARLY 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY THROUGH 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER TODAY AS THE 2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ AND PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
18Z/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRYING/BRIGHTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES
THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS
TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16
EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2.
BCMG VFR.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 02Z SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST
VIRGA. EARLIER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ICING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS SFC
TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND
REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE
OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE
RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMTS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES BY 12Z.
NATIONALBLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS
TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS CONTINUING...AS LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL PA. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NW MTNS.
SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES
THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS
TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16
EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2.
BCMG VFR.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 80 69 78 65 / 10 20 60 60 10
VICTORIA 67 80 65 75 60 / 10 20 60 70 10
LAREDO 71 85 69 83 64 / 10 30 60 30 10
ALICE 67 83 69 79 63 / 10 20 60 60 10
ROCKPORT 70 77 69 76 65 / 10 20 60 70 20
COTULLA 66 80 65 79 60 / 10 30 60 50 10
KINGSVILLE 69 83 69 80 64 / 10 20 60 60 10
NAVY CORPUS 71 76 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 60 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT-BKN CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 025-050 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A DRYLINE IS MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
ON THE DRYLINE WEST OF DFW AROUND 20-21Z. FOR THE WACO AREA...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION VCTS IN THE
KACT TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KACT TAF. FOR THE
METROPLEX...WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21-00Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
AFFECTS THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE TRUE
FRONT ARRIVES. BETWEEN 21-00Z...ITS POSSIBLE THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE BUT THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KACT ABOUT 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. HOWEVER...CIGS
AT KACT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 1 KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY.
JLDUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO
TOWARDS WACO.
HOETH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO
TOWARDS WACO.
HOETH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.UPDATE...
QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK
THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK
THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 10 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 30 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/
AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD
/BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z
MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING
DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME
25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE
APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND
02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 10 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DRG THE MID MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTN GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 281. PREDOMINATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...AS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SVR WATCH 81 IS
CANCELLED FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. NOTHING TO NOTE ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. IF
ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AS CAP CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER. UPDATE WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY. MAY ADJUST POPS ONE MORE TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH
EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES
ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO
THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL
OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF
BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES
COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 68 80 70 78 / 30 10 10 50 60
VICTORIA 82 64 81 65 73 / 40 10 10 50 70
LAREDO 93 68 84 68 81 / 0 10 20 50 30
ALICE 90 67 83 69 78 / 20 10 10 50 60
ROCKPORT 78 68 76 70 75 / 30 10 10 50 70
COTULLA 91 63 81 65 76 / 10 10 20 50 50
KINGSVILLE 89 69 82 70 80 / 20 10 10 50 60
NAVY CORPUS 79 69 76 71 76 / 30 10 10 50 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/
CONVECTION NOW EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS AND ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR LESS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST AS THINKING IS THAT ALL RAIN WILL END
BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
ONSET OF THE MVFR/IFR CIGS. THINKING CURRENTLY THAT I-35 TERMINALS
WILL BEGIN WITH MVFR CIGS OR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 07Z. KDRT LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 09Z. THEN AROUND 08Z I-35
SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE IFR CIGS AND IFR CIG WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z AT KDRT. BY 06Z-19Z ALL LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR.
CURRENT FORECAST ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS RETURN 12/05Z-06 FOR THE
30 HOUR FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10-15
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS BECOME S/SW 10-15 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE W/NW
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR
10 KNOTS AT THE I-35 SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT
WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE
CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE
SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED
STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY
AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW
00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE
FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500
J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS
EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER
ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY.
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE
I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND
10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR
AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST
A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN
INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE
CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE
COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.
THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR
QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME
MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
DECREASING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW
AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 75 58 68 54 / - 10 60 70 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 75 58 68 52 / - 10 60 70 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 60 70 54 / - 10 60 70 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 72 56 67 52 / - 10 60 60 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 78 62 76 58 / - 20 60 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 73 56 67 52 / - 10 50 60 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 61 71 54 / - 20 60 60 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 59 69 54 / - 10 60 70 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 76 61 69 55 / 10 10 50 70 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 77 61 70 56 / - 20 60 70 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 78 63 71 57 / - 20 60 70 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/
AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD
/BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z
MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING
DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME
25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE
APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND
02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
GENERATED LIFT OVER A REGION OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE FWD 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING IN
ADDITION TO HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD ANY
STORMS REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED
DRAMATICALLY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AREA-WIDE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IF A COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOTION OF THIS
COMPLEX WOULD STILL BE PRIMARILY EAST/NORTHEAST...THEREFORE KEEPING
IT LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR SAN ANGELO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD EASTWARD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
STALLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR MATAGORDA
BAY. THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FEATURE HAS ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DOWNWARD TREND
IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS
HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY MIXING...THUS IT HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN 700MB THRUST HAS BEEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE SOME
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTH TEXAS. OUR AREA OF
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS THE SUNNY BIG COUNTRY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
NEAR 3000J/KG. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DOWNWARD MOTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY. THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL REMAIN
OPEN THROUGH SUNSET...AND ANY CELLS THAT FORM WILL TRACK THROUGH A
SIMILARLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO BOWIE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHILE THIS WOULD PRECLUDE THE WIND
THREAT...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STORMS
THIS EVENING. AS 850MB WINDS REACH 50KTS LATE TONIGHT...
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED...ALBEIT LIKELY NON-SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE
ENTERING OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG
ITS PATH...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURGING DRYLINE PEELS UP A BUOYANT SURFACE
LAYER. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL
MAKE MORE RAPID PROGRESS NORTH OF I-20...WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT...A STUBBORN CAP MAY
PERSIST...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER ON THE HUMID SIDE...DIMINISHING
THE NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN
END TO THE STORM CHANCES.
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL
SURFACE LAYER WILL ENSUE...AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL REGIONWIDE. A RAIN-FREE INTERLUDE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 82 52 70 53 / 20 20 5 5 30
WACO 67 84 52 71 52 / 30 20 5 10 40
PARIS 66 79 51 68 47 / 20 60 20 5 20
DENTON 66 80 48 68 48 / 20 20 5 5 30
MCKINNEY 67 79 49 69 49 / 20 30 10 5 20
DALLAS 68 82 54 70 53 / 20 30 5 5 30
TERRELL 68 81 52 70 51 / 20 30 20 5 30
CORSICANA 68 83 54 70 53 / 30 30 10 10 30
TEMPLE 67 84 53 72 54 / 30 20 5 10 50
MINERAL WELLS 64 81 47 68 50 / 30 10 5 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT
WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE
CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE
SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED
STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY
AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW
00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE
FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500
J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS
EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER
ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY.
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE
I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND
10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR
AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST
A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN
INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE
CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE
COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.
THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR
QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME
MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
DECREASING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW
AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 86 58 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 85 57 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 57 76 60 / 40 20 - 10 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 85 54 72 56 / 30 10 - 10 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 58 78 62 / 70 0 - 20 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 56 73 56 / 30 20 - 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 57 78 61 / 70 10 - 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 57 76 59 / 30 20 - 10 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 81 61 76 61 / 30 40 10 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 86 58 77 61 / 40 20 - 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1129 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1115 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. TRUE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS STILL LAGS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT OF NC. AS OF 11PM...THE DEWPOINT VCNTY OF DANVILLE WAS
STILL CLOSE TO 50 WHEREAS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE U20S IN LYNCHBURG
AND MARTINSVILLE. CLOUDS ALSO LINGERED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH
NEAR TERM MODELS HANGING ONTO THIS MOISTURE UP THROUGH ABOUT 09Z/5AM
BEFORE THE DRY NE WIND FINALLY WINS OUT...CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO
TUMBLE AND SKIES TO CLEAR. A BRIEF SPRINKLE IS STILL POSSIBLE
VCNTY OF KDAN...BUT POPS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING CONTROL. DRY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH THESE COOL TEMPERATURES...FROST IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SMYTH
AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
HAVE EITHER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OR ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
KEEP ANY FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEDGE SET IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CONUS...WITH FLANKING UPPER
LOWS/TROUGHS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SET UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION...WHEREBY ALL ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE REGION. THE CLOSEST THE REGION WILL SEE TO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH
THROUGH SC/GA/FL.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST FOR A FEW HOURS RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN JET MAY ACT AS
THE TRIGGER TO HELP EJECT THE WESTERN U.S. LOW/TROUGH EASTWARD.
GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE SPEED THIS EJECTION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
GFS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE ECWMF. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLENDED SOLUTION THAT LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE QUICKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING WARM
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL HAVE INCHED
THEIR WAY HIGHER TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUIDANCE WERE SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT KDAN AT 02-03Z/10-11PM WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND DEVELOPS A DRY WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED AT KLYH AND KDAN BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INFLUENCED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WHETHER IT DRAWS MOISTURE TOWARD
DANVILLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ009-024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID
ATLANTIC REGION...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH TODAY HAS NOW COMPLETELY PUSHED
OUT OF OUR AREA. THE DEWPOINT FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED
THROUGH...ALLOWING POPS TO LOWER AND SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CORNER OF OUR CWA...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
EAST. WITH THESE COOL TEMPERATURES...FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SMYTH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
HAVE EITHER SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OR ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO
KEEP ANY FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS AWAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEDGE SET IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CONUS...WITH FLANKING UPPER
LOWS/TROUGHS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SET UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION...WHEREBY ALL ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE REGION. THE CLOSEST THE REGION WILL SEE TO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH
THROUGH SC/GA/FL.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST FOR A FEW HOURS RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN JET MAY ACT AS
THE TRIGGER TO HELP EJECT THE WESTERN U.S. LOW/TROUGH EASTWARD.
GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE SPEED THIS EJECTION TAKES PLACE WITH THE
GFS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE ECWMF. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
BLENDED SOLUTION THAT LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE QUICKER ECMWF SOLUTION.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING WARM
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL HAVE INCHED
THEIR WAY HIGHER TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO TAF SITES. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR GUDIANCE WERE SHOWING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT KDAN AT 02-03Z/10-11PM WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND DEVELOPS A DRY WEDGE
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED AT KLYH AND KDAN BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INFLUENCED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WHETHER IT DRAWS MOISTURE TOWARD
DANVILLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ009-024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. AFTER THESE SHOWERS PULL OUT
MONDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THEN
BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE RAP AND HRRR.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HAVING A
HARD TIME MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT AFTER
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... AND EVEN A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLE WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL
TIME DOWN A BIT. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND EVEN
MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. ONLY THE NAM OFFERS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO
SMALL...LI AROUND -0.25 AND CAPE AT MOST 200 J/KG...FOR THUNDER
CONCERNS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AN AVERAGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE AND ONE-
HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST THANKS TO THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL DIP AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER
OF CONUS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY...A DEEP
LOW/TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
ANOTHER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE COAST OF VA/NC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE ONE CATCH IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
VA/NC TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE COAST. AS IT DOES THIS...UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BITS OF ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
SWING INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES...PLUS OR MINUS...OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 AM EDT MONDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A STRONG LOW LVL JET SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING AND WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC A FEW AIRPORTS
WILL HAVE A 6-8HR PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...BUT MAINLY
LOOKING AT BLF/LWB/LYH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS
BCB/ROA/LYH FOR LESS THAN HOUR BUT NOT OBSCURE VSBYS.
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND SOME OF THE 4-8KFT CIGS LIFT OR SCATTER
OUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. SUSTAINED OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS TOWARD BLF/LWB BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY. WILL BRING MVFR 3KFT CIGS TO BLF BY 03Z/12.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME SUB-VFR WITH AREAS OF
RAIN AND FOG.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN
THE PIEDMONT FOR A WHILE. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NORTHERN VA/MD WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP MAKING INTO THE NRN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AN ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF THE DRY
CONDITIONS. THE LLV JET IS STRONGER ACROSS IA INTO MN THIS
EVENING...THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION
TRENDS INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT FOLLOW A SIMILAR PROCESS.
SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP UP AROUND
SHEBOYGAN/FOND DU LAC AND DUE WEST LATE TONIGHT. DRY SOUTH HALF.
TEMP PROFILE MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL LIQUID...BUT
IT/S CLOSE SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A MIX.
CLOUDS MAY END UP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A MID
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. WINDS WILL BE 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET. THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 5 TO 7 KFT TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INHIBIT MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP. A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND MAY MELT
ANY SNOWFLAKES FALLING INTO IT...SO ADDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
OR SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...FROM MARQUETTE TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT CLEAR EASTERN WI UNTIL MID
TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MODELS KEEP GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...HELD ONTO THE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
INTO WED MORNING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND STEADY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES COOLER. HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH UP
TO 60 WEST OF MADISON UNDER MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SSELY SFC FLOW ALTHOUGH
BECOMING MORE ELY DURING THE ONSET OF THE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WED NT WITH A CLEARING TREND THROUGH THU AM.
OTHERWISE MO SUNNY DAYS AND MO CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS THU WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S LAKESIDE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI...AND BY SUN THE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S LAKESIDE
TO 66-72F WELL INLAND.
LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OMEGA BLOCK SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE...AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FROM ONTARIO CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO LIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE
POPS OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PARKS THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF MADISON/MILWAUKEE
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WITH VFR CIGS AT
MOST...AND TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PCPN-FREE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
EXPECT STEADIER SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES STATIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THINK ANY FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EAST WITH THE 500 MB FLOW.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE SOME SUNSHINE AND THE
GOOD MIXING TODAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE TRICKY. FOR NOW...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL EITHER
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.
LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
EASTERN SITES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. MADISON
SHOULD SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. HIGH WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION
OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH
REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF
THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO
MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE
COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN
THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA
WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY
OF INLAND 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY
SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY
THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND
WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENT AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS.
MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE
EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH
WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION
OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH
REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF
THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO
MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE
COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN
THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA
WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY
OF INLAND 50S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY
SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY
THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND
WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENT AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE
EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH
WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER BACK
TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EXITED WELL OFF THE EAST THIS
EVENING...AND THE 00Z 500MB PLOT DATA SHOWED THE CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. A SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW...RESULTING IN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS THAT FORMED OVER THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 9 PM IR IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE STILL A BIT
ELEVATED AND WERE MOSTLY RUNNING IN THE 40S EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED COLD CORE SHORTWAVE HAS NOW EJECTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FEEDING INTO
THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDING INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN ARIZONA.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DEFORMATION...MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND MINOR INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEARING 500 J/KG) HAVE
SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WHILE STEERING FLOW AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS PROPAGATING INTO
PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY...VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL MIXING OF DRY
AIR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT MORE HOSTILE
TOWARDS MAINTAINING CONVECTION DIRECTED SOUTH DOWN THE I-17 CORRIDOR.
A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS EVOLUTION KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DAMPENED WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAY IN A 573-
579DM RANGE. FULL INSOLATION WILL CREATE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WHILE MODEL H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOWARDS 16-19C RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH RECENT
MODEL OUTPUT YIELDING BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PEAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES AMONG
ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUND WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MUCH LESS AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. ONE
MEASURE OF CONSISTENCY IS THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING.
THE LARGEST IMPACT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. OPERATIONAL GFS
WIND ANOMALIES ARE TOWARDS THE STRONGER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD
ENVELOPE (NEAR 40KT AT H8)...HOWEVER EVEN THE NAEFS AVERAGE V-WIND
H8-H7 ANOMALIES LIE TOWARDS THE SEASONALLY EXTREME THRESHOLD.
THUS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO START MENTIONING BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
WHILE TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO HAVE TRIMMED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TOWARDS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBSTANTIAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MEMBERS MORE RAPIDLY EJECTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS LINGER A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALBEIT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT
DISPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD THAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... DRIER
SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
DESERTS...ALLOWING FOR QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CU
THAT FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WE MAY
SEE A FEW HIGH BASED CU FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY
THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ON THE NRN AND ERN
FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEXT
24 HOURS AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. VERY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER WAVE LIFTING AHEAD
OF PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. HRRR PUSHES MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING...BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM
AND GFS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT TONIGHT...BUT RAMP UP MOISTURE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG QPF FIELD CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW IN COMPARISON WITH THE NAM. MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW. GFS SPLITS THE UPPER LOW SUCH THAT SOUTHEAST IDAHO GETS MORE
FAVORABLE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE THE
NAM PRODUCES LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE LOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO PREVENT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM CIRCULATING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND BEAR LAKE.
OTHERWISE...TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE NOT RAISED MUCH OWING TO EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. RS
&&
.AVIATION...THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH KSUN ABOUT
13Z AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
MODELS....THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ARCO DESERT
THROUGH THE DAY. BOTTOM LINE BREEZY UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AT KSUN AND KBYI
ABOUT 16Z...KIDA AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST AREA COULD BE ISLAND PARK AND POSSIBLY BEAR
LAKE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SPOKE
OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1200 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
JUST WEST OF THE SIOUXLAND AREA...IT HAS BECOME HARDER TO
CONTINUE CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HOPWRF AND HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER NRN IA INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WITH THE RAP ALSO SHOWING PRECIP. THUS HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING OVER NRN IA 06-10Z FOR A
START.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
RATHER QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON TAP. ONLY REAL CONCERN WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT RAIN CLIPS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW NO PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...WHICH I SUSPECT WILL BE THE CASE IN NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING WITH DRY LAYER DEPTH AROUND 6 KFT AND BETTER LIFT FURTHER
NORTH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING. LOWS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE BOOSTED
A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST THIS EVENING IF WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A
COUPLE KTS OVER GUIDANCE AS THEY WERE THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPS AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MIGRATING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST JUMP IN TEMPS
SHOULD BE FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND HIGHS WARM SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
HIGHS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HIGHS WILL WARM JUST A
FEW DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEGINNING SATURDAY A LARGE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INCH INTO THE ROCKIES BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD
TOUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THE FRINGE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN IOWA AND LOCATIONS WEST BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS DIFFER AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS HOLDING THE HIGH STRONGLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WHILE THE EURO
SHOVES THE HIGH FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO WORK IT`S WAY
MORE INTO IOWA. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW HOWEVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES.
FOR MONDAY THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
THIS WILL ACT TO EITHER MOVE OR FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND THUS PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK BETTER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAKOTAS/MN
SYSTEM MAY JUST CLIP NRN IA TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE FOR INCLUSION AS
OF YET. SURFACE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE...REMAINING SLY...BUT A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH NEAR KMCW AS
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF SD LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
WITH THE WRN N AMERICA RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALY THAT HAS DOMINATED APR
SO FAR BREAKING DOWN...THE ERN N AMERICA TROF THAT HAS LED TO AN
UNUSUALLY COLD/SNOWY BEGINNING TO APR FOR UPPER MI IS LIFTING
OUT/WEAKENING. FOR THE FIRST 12 DAYS OF APR...THE AVG TEMP IS
RUNNING AN IMPRESSIVE 12.3F BLO NORMAL HERE AT NWS MQT WITH SNOWFALL
32.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. LIFTING OUT OF THE ERN TROF WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY THE DEMISE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER GREENLAND (3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY). IN FACT...RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRI...AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL REACH 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE REDEVELOPMENT OF MODEST TROFFING
IN ERN CANADA...LIKELY ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC SHOTS OF COOLER AIR OUT
TO 2 WEEKS. LAST FEW NAEFS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE SHOWN A LARGE AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER FAR WRN CANADA AND MOST OF
THE CONUS AND AN AREA OF NEAR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED IN
CNTRL/ERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SO...A GENERAL WRN CANADA
RIDGE/ERN CANADA TROF CONFIGURATION.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE LONG ADVERTISED SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TRACK THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING BACK TOWARD WRN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REDEVELOPMENT OF MODEST ERN CANADA TROFFING WILL SPELL
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE AREA...BUT LIKELY STILL ABOVE NORMAL. IN
TYPICAL SPRING-TIME FASHION...COOLING WILL BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR PCPN...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD IS SHAPING UP
DURING THE LONG TERM AND OUT THRU AT LEAST 10 DAYS AS WELL. FOR A
NUMBER OF DAYS...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PCPN
FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
RECENT DAYS...THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD LIFT NE
AND BRING A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE
RECENTLY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA THAT
REDEVELOPMENT OF WRN CANADA RIDGING/ERN CANADA TROFFING EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SUPPRESS ANY REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW FROM AFFECTING
UPPER MI. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES BEING TIED ONLY TO A
COLD FROPA SOMETIME SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU
NRN ONTARIO. WITH THE UPCOMING WARM WEATHER...SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS. FORTUNATELY...NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
DURING THE SNOWMELT.
A NICE STRETCH OF SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THU THRU SAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND ON THU...FRI AND SAT SHOULD
FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY COLUMN. 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z THU
WILL RANGE FROM 0C E TO 5C W. BY 12Z FRI...850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 5C E TO 9C W. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S ON THU AND
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 70F AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE W. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO FRI. ALL 3
DAYS...HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE W. OBVIOUSLY...WHERE THE WIND
HAS A COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER. WITH S TO SE GRADIENT WINDS...THAT COOLING WILL
BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LAKE MI AND ON THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS MOVING TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT ON DROPPING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT SUN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LACKING...SO INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT WITH PARCELS
NOT ABLE TO GET PASSED A MORE STABLE LAYER ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL
CANADIAN MODELS. BETTER CHC OF PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA MAINLY
SUN NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WORK TO GENERATE PCPN. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL AGREE ON THIS POINT.
SOMEWHAT OF A FASTER TREND IS NOTED WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...SO
PCPN CHC MAY MATERIALIZE ON SUN RATHER THAN SUN NIGHT IF NEXT SET OF
MODEL RUNS BACK UP THE FASTER TREND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MON...AND
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER (AT LEAST 10-15F LOWER THAN SUN) AS HIGH PRES
BUILDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO NRN ONTARIO RESULTS IN A GRADIENT
NRLY WIND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE
WITH TEMPS MODERATING A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
THE SW HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AND
CMX MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW
TIL LATE WED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND S TO SE FLOW.
CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1226 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
THE SW HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SAW AND
CMX MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT CMX AND SAW
TIL LATE WED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND S TO SE FLOW.
CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
AT 4 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS KDIK-KMOT-KISN AFTER 18Z. VFR
ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY EVENING PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS POCATELLO ID
937 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...WE`VE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL INFORMATION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SOME IMPRESSIVE 1
AND 6 HOUR AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS MORNING ALREADY SO WE ADDED BACK IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM MDT WED APR 13 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER WAVE LIFTING AHEAD
OF PARENT LOW AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF IDAHO THIS
MORNING...EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING. HRRR PUSHES MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING...BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM
AND GFS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT TONIGHT...BUT RAMP UP MOISTURE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG QPF FIELD CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AS A RESULT OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHILE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW IN COMPARISON WITH THE NAM. MODELS HAVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW. GFS SPLITS THE UPPER LOW SUCH THAT SOUTHEAST IDAHO GETS MORE
FAVORABLE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE THE
NAM PRODUCES LIGHTER PRECIP AROUND THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE LOW. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO PREVENT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM CIRCULATING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND BEAR LAKE.
OTHERWISE...TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE NOT RAISED MUCH OWING TO EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. RS
AVIATION...THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH KSUN ABOUT
13Z AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
MODELS....THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ARCO DESERT
THROUGH THE DAY. BOTTOM LINE BREEZY UNTIL SUNSET. SOME DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING AT KSUN AND KBYI
ABOUT 16Z...KIDA AND KPIH ABOUT 18Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST AREA COULD BE ISLAND PARK AND POSSIBLY BEAR
LAKE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SPOKE
OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
929 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another sunny morning across the forecast area, but some mid-level
clouds are accompanying a shortwave moving through Wisconsin and
eastern Iowa. Latest RAP humidity plots for the 850-700mb layer
show this largely staying to our north. Some high clouds with
convection over the lower Mississippi Valley may brush the far
southeast CWA this afternoon, but shouldn`t provide much of an
obstacle to the sunshine. Made some minor adjustments to the
temperatures, going with highs 60-65 everywhere. Updated
zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Beneath the ridge,
skies are mostly clear and winds are light across central Illinois
with current temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 30s.
Abundant sunshine and light E/NE winds will be the rule today as the
ridge remains firmly in place. Forecast soundings support mixing up
to around 860mb, which will result in afternoon highs in the upper
50s and lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another chilly night will be on tap tonight, as clear skies and
light winds allow low temperatures to bottom out in the middle to
upper 30s. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures
will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming
will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around
persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb
into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-
ointment will be an upper low currently over the Texas panhandle.
This feature is expected to drift slowly eastward over the next
couple of days and perhaps approach southeast Illinois by Thursday
night into Friday. 00z Apr 13 models are in good agreement that
this feature will stay south of Illinois, but will need to keep an
eye on it in case clouds and a few showers spread into the far SE
KILX CWA Thursday night. At this point, will maintain a dry
forecast.
After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the
upper ridge will break down. Models are still having trouble with
the evolution of the upper pattern next week, with the latest runs
of the GFS/GEM both showing a strong northern-stream short-wave
diving into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary southward
into central Illinois by Monday. ECMWF shows this wave as well, but
is a bit slower with the southward progress of the front. Meanwhile,
an upper low will remain well to the west across the Rockies/western
Plains until the middle of the week. How far south the cold
front drops and how quickly the upper low tracks eastward still
remain in question. Will include low chance PoPs for showers/thunder
Monday into Tuesday, with continued warm temperatures in the upper
60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
High pressure will maintain its position to the northeast of
Illinois over the next 24 hours, with the ridge axis extending
just southeast of Illinois. That orientation will keep a
persistent east to southeast flow through 12z Thursday. Southeast
wind speeds will increase to 10-12kt during the day
today, then drift easterly this evening and diminish to around 5kt.
Cloud cover will be minimal today, with some increase in AC clouds
at 12K ft tonight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
945 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVOLVING MINI-REX
BLOCK OVER THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT MID LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS RIDGING EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ENOUGH TO
WIPE OUT THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
MIDST OF A BUBBLE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
WEAKNESS MANIFESTED BY LINGERING ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE HEART OF
THE RIDGE. IN TIME...RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE PLACEMENT FOR THIS WESTERN
LOW IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY THE WEAKER COMPONENT. THIS LOW THEN STARTS TO OPEN UP
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS
MAY HELP TO LURE WESTERN ENERGY INTO THE STATE MORE DEFINITIVELY
FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A
GENERALLY BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. EARLY ON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW FADES OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO JUST ACCOUNT FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HOWEVER...NE WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A NEAR 180 DEGREE
WIND SHIFT FROM ERLY TO WRLY IS EXPECTED AROUND 2K TO 4K FT AGL
THIS MORNING...BUT MAGNITUDE SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SCT CU AT AROUND 3 OR 5K FEET AGL MAY ALSO BE SEEN NEAR THE TN
BORDER DURING THE DAY...MAINLY AFFECTING KSME AND KLOZ...DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM OUR SE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WEAK SFC LOW CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING OUT BY CANBY...WITH A
FAIRLY WELL PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO THE SOUTHERN
TWIN CITIES METRO AND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE IN WI. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...WHILE CENTRAL MN IS STILL DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NW FLOW SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TAIL EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 40-50KT LLJ DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND WITHIN THIS LLJ WE HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
HAVE REMAINED UP IN THE BALL PARK OF 20 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH MEANS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS FAILED TO REACH
THE GROUND.
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST OVER MN...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES CLEARING SKIES OUT
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH A LITTLE...
CLEARING THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE. LOOKING DOWN IN THE WARM
SECTOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS A LARGE POOL OF AIR ACROSS NE
NEB INTO FAR SW MN THAT HAS REMAINED IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN NE INTO SW/SC MN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING A BIT RECENTLY AND WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...DID BOOST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH OF I-
94...CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS. FOR DEWPOINTS...THEY ARE
MAINLY IN THE 20S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE SEEN ON LAST NIGHTS KMPX
SOUNDING CHANGING VERY LITTLE TODAY...SO UNDERCUT DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON CONSIDERABLY...TRENDING DEWPOINT FORECASTS TOWARD THE
RAP. THIS RESULTED AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES FARTHER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN. BESIDE
SPELLING THE END OF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THE WEEKEND...THE WEAKENING
OF THE LLJ WILL ALSO RESULT IN MIXED LAYER WINDS DECREASING AS
WELL...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW THE 20 MPH NEEDED FOR
A RED FLAG WARNING. STILL WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO GET
DOWN AROUND 25% WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS UP IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE...WILL INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FWF AND A MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR THE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY.
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NRN MN...WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SPELL A VERY MILD
EVENING...WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 50 WHERE WE SEE HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING 10 TO
ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A DRY AND MILD PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. FAR WESTERN MN WILL MAKE A RUN AT 80
DEGREES...WHILE WESTERN WI SHOULD REMAIN A BIT COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND MAKE FOR A COUPLE BREEZY DAYS
THU-FRI...HOWEVER...UNLIKE MANY PREVIOUS DAYS THIS MONTH...WE WILL
NOT BE DEALING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S OR 30S. THOSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN DRY OVERALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
A TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...BUT DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND BECOMES CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW - THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THAT UPPER LOW
SPINNING AWAY DOWN THERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FILLING AND SHEARING OUT. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA...HOWEVER...TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS QUITE MINOR LOCALLY -
PERHAPS NOTHING AT ALL. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
AFTER THE 70S THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
ONLY CONCERN TODAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
SPLAYED OUT ALONG ROUGHLY A RWF/MSP/EAU LINE. THIS BOUNDARY AND
EVEN A HINT OF A WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR RWF MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF MSP/EAU.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A HRRR IDEA FOR WIND DIRECTION AT MSP/EAU...WITH
DIRECTIONS HERE GETTING MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A VFR TAF THAT WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH MSP RIGHT NOW.
AS A RESULT...FAVORED WIND DIRECTION TOWARD THE NAM/HRRR...WITH
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING BECOME SOUTH...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTING A
LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH AS WELL. NO OTHER CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10-20G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEVILS LATE BASIN IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS.
VARIOUS HRRR POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THUS IF WE REALIZE OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OUR RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AND
UPDATE THE HAZARD SHORTLY.
LATEST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR BRING CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 21 UTC AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
SPREADING CONVECTION TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
06 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INCLUDE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 27KTS FROM KISN-KDIK-KBIS.
AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INCLUDE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS 27KTS FROM KISN-KDIK-KBIS.
AT 6 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 48 73 52 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 49 74 53 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 49 76 53 / 40 10 0 0
GAGE OK 72 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 68 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 67 51 74 53 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. CEILINGS HAD TUPELO WILL
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR ALL SITES LATER ON TODAY...YET NOT CONFIDENT TO PLACE
INTO FORECAST. TLSJR
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...CONTINUES
TO FALL OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ELSE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATION WITH
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS RAP SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 800 MB LEVEL LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY THE EVENING.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER 40S IN OUR NORTHEAST NEAR THE SHEBOYGAN AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS OVER THE TAF SITES WOULD BE FOR MSN. INTRODUCED
VCSH FOR THE MSN TAF THROUGH 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN
TAF SITES...SO LEFT THEM DRY FOR NOW. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS FOR THE TAF SITES. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH SOME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
DRY AIR PROVING DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AS EXPECTED...WITH RADAR
RETURNS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND...WITH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PCPN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
CLOSEST GROUND TRUTH REPORTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ONLY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. AREAS ON THE NOSE OF THE MORE FOCUSED
WAA WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN FAR NRN WI HAVE VSBY-REDUCING
PRECIPITATION REPORTS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
MODEL QPF IN LINE WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL WI AT 12Z...WITH A LOBE
EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW...THAT DOES NOT EXIT ERN WI UNTIL 18Z.
HOWEVER...BEST OMEGA WITH WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE REMAINS N AND NW OF CWA...WITH EASING FLOW
OVER A SLACKENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY. 285K
ISENTROPIC FORECASTS KEEP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT/ABOVE
100 MB EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE.
HOWEVER...RADAR SUGGESTS FOLLOWING THE TREND OF SHORT RANGE
MODELS AND WILL BRING SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH...FOR THE BAND OF ISOLATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM NE IOWA AND SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BETTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LIMITED TO THE FAR NE CWA UNTIL MID-MORNING...WHERE LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE FOUND.
HAVE SLOWED CLEARING...WITH NE CWA POTENTIALLY STAYING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SW CWA GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...ALLOWING MIXING UP TO +7C
TO +8C 925 MB TEMPS. EASTERN AREAS COOLER WITH COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE SE WINDS AND CLOUDS LINGERING LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SECOND WEAKER WAVE CROSSES FAR NRN WI/UP OF MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...BUT NO PCPN. HOWEVER ALL MODELS KEEPING A POCKET OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SRN WI THAT BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DEVELOPING RIDGE AXIS. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE THE MOST EXPANSIVE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM DRY THE MID LEVELS OUT WITH A BIT MORE FLOW
IN A LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGE. WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT
GRADUALLY REDUCES CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SOME WIND AND MIXING OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL HOLD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THEY ALSO SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP
500 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN COLDER THAN WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH LOWER TO
MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE ARE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY WEAKENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES HERE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE
WITH POPS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. COOLER TEMPERATURES
THEN MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT CONSENSUS
POPS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NOW...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRY PERIODS IF DRIER TREND IN MODELS CONTINUES.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A
MILWAUKEE...MADISON TO LONE ROCK LINE. CLOUDS NO LOWER THAN 5K TO
7K FEET. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
MARINE...
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
621 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.Update...
Interesting scenario shaping up over the next 24 hours. Water
vapor imagery shows a large upper level low spinning over
Oklahoma and moving slowly eastward. An upper ridge is actually
located to its north, and over the next 24 hours both of these
features are forecast to continue to move slowly eastward,
eventually forming something similar to a rex block. In the
meantime, deep moisture will continue to feed into the local area
with west to southwest mean layer flow in the mid to upper levels.
However, at the surface, high pressure across the northeast states
is nosing southwestward, providing east to northeast surface flow
across the area. This is providing an extra boundary to promote
lift and enhance the rainfall potential across the area.
The radar echoes this evening have actually been exhibiting some
warm rain type features with shallow convection and 50+ dbz values
occurring near and below the freezing level (low echo centroid).
As we head deeper into the evening hours and overnight, some of
our local hi-res guidance as well as some HRRR runs have shown the
potential for this slow moving, shallow convection to produce some
localized excessive rainfall amounts. Given the still relatively
saturated conditions across southeast Alabama and the eastern
Florida panhandle, the flash flood watch was issued earlier and
will continue into the overnight hours. Based on the latest radar
trends and dual-pol rainfall rates, the watch has been expanded
eastward some to include Tallahassee and Albany overnight.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00z Friday] A large area of rain will continue to move
into the region overnight. Northeasterly surface winds will
continue into Thursday. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
overnight and into Thursday as well with areas of rain persisting.
&&
.Prev Discussion [352 PM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Large MCS is continuing to approach the western border of the
forecast area this afternoon. At the same time, high pressure nosing
down the lee of the Appalachians is pushing a backdoor cold front
into the northeastern portion of the forecast area. The upper
divergence associated with the MCS/shortwave is forecast to
overspread the forecast area overnight. With low-level convergence
likely to be enhanced in the vicinity of the backdoor front, there
remains the potential for a corridor of heavy rain overnight.
Several of the available hi-res models show the best potential for
heavy rain stretching from Tallahassee into SE Alabama. In this
area, could see a widespread 2 to 3 inches with isolated higher
amounts. Given the fairly we soils from recent rains and stronger
returns beginning to appear on radar, will go ahead with a Flash
Flood Watch for SE Alabama and portions of the eastern Panhandle.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
An upper level low will slowly move eastward from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley to the southeast Georgia coast by 12z
Saturday. Deep layer moisture, abundant short wave energy as well
as a surface front in close proximity will keep cloudy and wet
conditions through the period. The front will mostly lay west to
east across or just south of our coastal waters as the wedge of
high pressure extending down from the mid-Atlantic region becomes
firmly established. With the overrunning setup, a few elevated
thunderstorms are possible mainly near the Florida coast. Some of
the rain may be heavy at times and will monitor for the
possibility of extending the Flash Flood Watch further east.
Daytime temps will generally be cooler than normal with lower to
mid 60s north and around 70 to the lower 70s for all but Dixie
County (mid to upper 70s). Lows will mostly be in the 50s.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
A much drier pattern returns for the weekend and early next week
as deep layer ridging builds over the region. A cold front will
drop down from the north all the way to the Gulf coast on
Wednesday and bring with it a low end chance for rain. Max temps
will gradually warm to the lower 80s by Monday with lows mostly in
the in the mid 50s to around 60s.
.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds will gradually
increase to cautionary levels Thursday night and to advisory
levels by Friday night. Saturday night winds will increase to 20
to 25 knots with higher gusts and seas will build to 4 to 6 feet.
.Fire Weather...
Rain chances will be elevated through Friday. On Saturday, drier air
will move in and stay in place for several days. Daytime dispersion
values could stay below 20 today and tomorrow.
.Hydrology...
Currently the only river in flood stage is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown. It is forecast to drop below flood stage late this
afternoon. Rain chances are elevated through Friday. Rain totals
through Friday are expected to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range for the
most part with isolated higher amounts likely. Flooding issues are
not expected at this time but many rivers are still high from the
last big rain event and should be monitored closely.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 71 56 71 57 / 80 60 60 50 30
Panama City 65 69 58 70 58 / 80 70 60 40 30
Dothan 60 64 52 64 53 / 90 80 60 50 30
Albany 58 65 51 63 52 / 80 80 60 50 40
Valdosta 61 68 54 68 56 / 60 70 60 60 30
Cross City 64 75 60 77 61 / 70 50 40 50 30
Apalachicola 65 71 60 71 60 / 70 50 60 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Jefferson-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baker-Calhoun-
Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Worth.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
555 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
PART. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE EAST. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA TOWARD
SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL
ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS
TODAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING THICKENING CLOUDINESS MAINLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF AGS AND DNL. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE AREA. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS BELOW THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH PART. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WITH LARGE GRADIENTS IN BOTH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAINTAINS A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST...AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES. THE FORMATION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM...HOLDING THE CLOSED LOW JUST
TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE CSRA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE CSRA AND LOWER
MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SHUNT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGHTEN TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL
ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. DRY AIR
ADVECTION WITH HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS
TODAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TIMING OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING THICKENING CLOUDINESS MAINLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF AGS AND DNL. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS MOS AND SREF MEAN AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY LEAD
TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL BE COOL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS WAS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE AREA. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS BELOW THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOWED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MAINLY
IN THE SOUTH PART. THE 13Z HRRR DISPLAYED RAIN REACHING THE CSRA
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE 12Z ARW AND SPC WRF KEPT THE RAIN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAV AND MET MOS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORTED
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH PART LATE AND WE LEANED TOWARD THAT
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
THE GULF COAST REGION BY FRIDAY. WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEFINED COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE FLUX APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA DURING THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS. MOS POP CONSENSUS
INCREASING ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
REMAINS AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURE. BUT
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...SO RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WITH
FRIDAY THE COOLEST...WITH 50S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CSRA AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OF REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR ADVECTION
PLUS HEATING AND MIXING HAS RESULTING IN RISING CEILINGS. WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS MIXING THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN AND
MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GFS LAMP AND
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS AGAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
LEAD TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS...DNL...AND OGB ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1227 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...
200 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME SPLENDID WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SOME WARMING GETTING READY TO MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE
SPRINGLIKE IN THE DAYS TO COME.
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS WAVE FOR
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WE WILL LESS
CLEAR BLUE SKY THEN SEEN ON TUESDAY. STILL THESE WILL BE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TOO MUCH.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. 850-925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM SOME 3-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITH MIXED SUNSHINE
SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING 6-8 F OR SO HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...MAYBE A 60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST (NEAR PERU). ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AT THE LAKE..AND EXPECT THERE TO BE A
LAKE BREEZE AGAIN WHICH LIMIT WARMING TO THE MORNING HOURS CLOSER
IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH SOME COOLING AS IT MOVES INLAND. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...THE WARMER START POINT SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
200 AM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EACH DAY WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LOCALIZED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LAKE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPAND EAST THURSDAY THAN EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN MORE WHILE BACKBUILDING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON ITS PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
IN A GENERALLY SUNNY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW US TO TAG ON SEVERAL DEGREES TO HIGHS EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND LOW 70S SUNDAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. THE ONSHORE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT EVEN LAKE AREAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 50S.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF LATE...WHILE A PORTION
OF THE ENERGY WILL GET EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW IN CANADA. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND RETURN THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SENDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY...BUT THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND COVERAGE. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THERE TO BE
A COOL DOWN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLING THAN THE EC/GEM. HAVE HELD ONTO SOME
LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS RAIN WITH THE
FRONT BUT TIMING, AMOUNT, AND EXTENT OF HOW FAR SOUTH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. WE THEN HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN
CONUS LOW TO SEE HOW MUCH OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS ONCE IT GETS
HERE...WHICH LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT QUITE AS
QUICKLY AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE LATEST TAF PERIOD...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PRESENTING THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLIPPING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED THOUGH IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED
ON RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PASSAGE THROUGH THE
CHICAGO AREA BY THE TIME 18Z TAFS GO INTO EFFECT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KT. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK BELOW 10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
225 AM...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC AND
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN NEXT MONDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another sunny morning across the forecast area, but some mid-level
clouds are accompanying a shortwave moving through Wisconsin and
eastern Iowa. Latest RAP humidity plots for the 850-700mb layer
show this largely staying to our north. Some high clouds with
convection over the lower Mississippi Valley may brush the far
southeast CWA this afternoon, but shouldn`t provide much of an
obstacle to the sunshine. Made some minor adjustments to the
temperatures, going with highs 60-65 everywhere. Updated
zones/grids have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
the eastern Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Beneath the ridge,
skies are mostly clear and winds are light across central Illinois
with current temperatures mainly in the middle to upper 30s.
Abundant sunshine and light E/NE winds will be the rule today as the
ridge remains firmly in place. Forecast soundings support mixing up
to around 860mb, which will result in afternoon highs in the upper
50s and lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
Another chilly night will be on tap tonight, as clear skies and
light winds allow low temperatures to bottom out in the middle to
upper 30s. As upper ridging builds over the Midwest, temperatures
will continue to slowly climb through the end of the week. Warming
will be somewhat mitigated by a continued easterly flow around
persistent surface ridging, but high temperatures will still climb
into the lower 70s by Friday. The only potential fly-in-the-
ointment will be an upper low currently over the Texas panhandle.
This feature is expected to drift slowly eastward over the next
couple of days and perhaps approach southeast Illinois by Thursday
night into Friday. 00z Apr 13 models are in good agreement that
this feature will stay south of Illinois, but will need to keep an
eye on it in case clouds and a few showers spread into the far SE
KILX CWA Thursday night. At this point, will maintain a dry
forecast.
After that, the big question in the extended will be how quickly the
upper ridge will break down. Models are still having trouble with
the evolution of the upper pattern next week, with the latest runs
of the GFS/GEM both showing a strong northern-stream short-wave
diving into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary southward
into central Illinois by Monday. ECMWF shows this wave as well, but
is a bit slower with the southward progress of the front. Meanwhile,
an upper low will remain well to the west across the Rockies/western
Plains until the middle of the week. How far south the cold
front drops and how quickly the upper low tracks eastward still
remain in question. Will include low chance PoPs for showers/thunder
Monday into Tuesday, with continued warm temperatures in the upper
60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2016
VFR conditions to continue the next 24 hours, with little in the
way of cloud cover. Winds near 10 knots this afternoon expected to
subside a bit this evening and become more east-southeast, before
increasing again to near 10 knots by late Thursday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THIS
LED TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TN BORDER SO MORE OR LESS
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE INSTEAD OF SUNNY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NORTH AND EAST GENERALLY
DRIEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LOW WILL BE SKIRTING BY
TO OUR SOUTH UNDERNEATH A DOMINATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SET UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS CLOSED LOW THEN
STARTS TO OPEN UP INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE
NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS MAY HELP TO PULL ENERGY FROM
THE WESTERN LOW INTO THE STATE TUESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL SHOWCASE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
CU IN THE VFR RANGE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION MAY AFFECT KSME
AND KLOZ DURING THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME MID OR
HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT SME AND LOZ THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ052-104-106-
107-109-110-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JVM/CG
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THIS
LED TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE TN BORDER SO MORE OR LESS
MOSTLY SUNNY THERE INSTEAD OF SUNNY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE NORTH AND EAST GENERALLY
DRIEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS ENDING
THE THREAT FOR FROST. THUS THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND
9 AM EDT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
PLACE...BUT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY. PW IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS THIS SPRING AND THE MAV MOS...AS WELL AS RAW SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 6Z ON THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TOO HIGH AS WELL AND
PROBABLY ARE BUMPING UP THE BLENDS TOO MUCH. THE 0Z MET NUMBERS
ARE MORE REALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO FORECAST AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR AND RAP EVEN A BIT DRIER.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS ALREADY NOTED WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
QUIET NIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO
THAT IT MATCHED UP WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN
SOME LOWERING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR WEST.
TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE A BIT AS WELL TO BETTER REFLECT THE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
THESE LOWER VALUES. ALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. NO FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
NPW WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING...BUT OTHERWISE IS IN
GOOD SHAPE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 13Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
DESPITE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY AFFECTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER WE SHOULD KEEP DRY AND LIGHT NE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER GOOD RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY
COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...THIS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME TEMP-
FALLS FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S HOWEVER...SO STILL QUITE CHILLY.
FOR THURSDAY...WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN OVERALL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A STRONG
CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY OVERNIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WELL. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY FEED OFF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS DAY RUNS...WHICH
WOULD ALSO PROMOTE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...SOMETHING WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE NAM12 ALL SUPPORT. IMPACTS AND QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT
BEST...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 16 THURSDAY AND 0Z FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016
THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEVOLVING MINI-REX
BLOCK OVER THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS PROCESS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AT MID LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS RIDGING EVENTUALLY EXPANDS ENOUGH TO
WIPE OUT THE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE
MIDST OF A BUBBLE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
WEAKNESS MANIFESTED BY LINGERING ENERGY TRAPPED IN THE HEART OF
THE RIDGE. IN TIME...RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE PLACEMENT FOR THIS WESTERN
LOW IS SHOWING BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY THE WEAKER COMPONENT. THIS LOW THEN STARTS TO OPEN UP
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SWINGS PAST KENTUCKY TO THE NORTHEAST...STRONGER IN THE GFS. THIS
MAY HELP TO LURE WESTERN ENERGY INTO THE STATE MORE DEFINITIVELY
FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A
GENERALLY BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BOUT OF SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. EARLY ON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW FADES OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT.
AGAIN ADJUSTED THE GRIDS FROM THE CR INIT MAINLY TO JUST ACCOUNT FOR
A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED APR 13 2016
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM EASTERN KY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
CU IN THE VFR RANGE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION MAY AFFECT KSME
AND KLOZ DURING THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME MID OR
HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT SME AND LOZ THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
QUICK UPDATE TO BLEND TO OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 2215 UTC
AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 19-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ON GOING CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IN DOING
SO...A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES PEELING OFF/EJECTING
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. APPROXIMATELY THREE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WET/UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHT IN THE NEAR TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IS
THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING. VERIFICATION IS UNDERWAY WITH
FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20
MPH AND 25 MPH ...WITH RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN IN THE WEST IS INCREASING
HIGH/MIDDLE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD/MAY
DISRUPT THE THREE CONSECUTIVE HOUR VERIFICATION IN SOME SPOTS...AS
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS/SHADING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO HALT OR LIMIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND MIXING NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE WIND/LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE TIME NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT UNTIL
THIS BECOMES EVIDENT. ALSO MONITORING AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL
AREA...BOTH IN TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXPANDING THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FOCUS WILL
BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
REACHING THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN
STALLING OUT DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA TONIGHT. BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
RUMBLING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
FRONT STALLING OUT THURSDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE HERE WITH A BREAK/DRY PERIOD ELSEWHERE FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF BREAK MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COME TO AN END
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT STRONGER SURFACE LOW
FOLLOW A NEARLY IDENTICAL PATH...ALBEIT SLOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH THIS NEXT SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INITIATE IN EASTERN MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY SURFACED
BASE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY 06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WET DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RIDES UP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAREST THE
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST IN THE
WEST. ANOTHER SURFACE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THEN BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA. A REX BLOCK FORMATION
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY. THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CIGS SHOULD NOT GET ANY LOWER THAN 3500FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL
CREATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHIFTS THROUGH. DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER FAR EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH. SATELLITE INDICATES MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEARING
THE ND BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND JUST CROSSING THE BORDER IN
THE NORTHEAST. AS FAR AS THE RED FLAG WARNING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LET IT RIDE. DO THINK WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
INDICATED IN LATEST CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST. WILL STICK WITH OUR FORECAST
HIGHS AT THIS TIME AS THESE MODELS QUITE OFTEN UNDER PERFORM WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING.
AS FOR POPS...UTILIZED A CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS FROM 21
UTC THROUGH 03 UTC AND THEN A BLEND OF THIS CONSENSUS WITH
PERSISTENCE THROUGH 06 UTC. THIS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING
THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DEVILS LATE BASIN IS PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS.
VARIOUS HRRR POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 TO 35
MPH. THUS IF WE REALIZE OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OUR RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AND
UPDATE THE HAZARD SHORTLY.
LATEST FEW ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR BRING CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 21 UTC AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
SPREADING CONVECTION TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
06 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT 6 AM
CDT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT
FOR TODAY...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...THEN EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. A COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE
THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS TELLING OF HOW DRY THIS AIRMASS IS.
THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MU CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWEST FETCH INTO THE AREA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERMAL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE THUNDER
WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC THURSDAY...THUS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A WIDESPREAD WET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ONE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING IS WHEN THE
NEXT POTENT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADEQUATE 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE MORE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN RAINFALL IMPACTS INCLUDE...TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE FIRE
DANGER...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING OR CANCELLING PRESCRIBED
BURNS...LIMITING SPRING FIELD PREPARATIONS...AND POSSIBLE
RANCHING/CALVING IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A REX BLOCK HAS DEVELOPED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THAT ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND THUS TOOK
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY. THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15KT AND
25KT. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CIGS SHOULD NOT GET ANY LOWER THAN 3500FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO
HALLIDAY...TO MOTT AND HETTINGER.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OUT OF MONTANA...REACHING THE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST H850 CONDITIONS
INCLUDE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH A DRY
INTRUSION. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR A MIX-OUT DAY...MEANING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL AND BCCONSMOS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WAS USED...AS THEY SEEM TO CAPTURE BETTER THE MIX-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT -
MAINLY WEST OF A BISMARCK TO MINOT LINE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
LONG WILL THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST 20 MPH WINDS LAST. MOST CONFIDENT IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES RATHER THAN THOSE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD EXPECT HIGH-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY AND TIOGA...TO HALLIDAY...TO
MOTT AND HETTINGER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...WAA/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A MESSY CLOUD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK/N TX. MULTIPLE SCT/BKN LAYERS WILL RESULT IN
FREQUENT SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN CEILING HEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH THE
GENERAL TREND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOWLY TOWARD IMPROVEMENT.
LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINFALL...AND LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGEST EITHER BR/FG OR LOW CEILINGS...OR BOTH...OVERNIGHT AT
ALMOST ALL SITES. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 1/2 MI AT SOME
SITES...BUT THERE IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
FORECAST TO INCLUDE IT IN ANY TAFS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN WITHIN
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
CMS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED FROM NEAR HOBART TO WATONGA. THUS...ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-44 WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE LIMITED HEATING SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS...HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. STILL...ANY SUNSHINE
COULD QUICKLY WARM THE AIR UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA FROM RAIN
TODAY...THINK FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF WHICH...COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THUS...ADDED MENTION
TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 48 73 52 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 49 74 53 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 49 76 53 / 40 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 51 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF I-44. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED PATCHY FOG
MENTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO NORMAN TO CHANDLER LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED FROM NEAR HOBART TO WATONGA. THUS...ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-44 WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE LIMITED HEATING SO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS...HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. STILL...ANY SUNSHINE
COULD QUICKLY WARM THE AIR UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA FROM RAIN
TODAY...THINK FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME OF WHICH...COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THUS...ADDED MENTION
TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER THEM WEST OF
A ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS LINE...AND THEN TO
INCREASE THEM EAST OF THIS LINE. OTHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING SKY
COVER WERE TWEAKED AS WELL.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.
MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST RADARS AND HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED NEAR THE
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS AREAS...AND POINTS WEST
THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT HAVE PUSHED FARTHER
EAST. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WET NEAR DUNCAN...
ARDMORE...ADA...PAULS VALLEY...ATOKA...AND DURANT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WITH LATEST RAP13
MUCAPE DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
COVER COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN MANY AREAS...SO
WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT
ALTER FORECAST HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY
ARE A BIT TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS
SITES WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL END BY 14Z BUT WILL
LINGER IN CENTRAL OK (OKC/OUN) THROUGH 16Z. SHOWERS MAY ALSO REACH
PNC WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EVENING...HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BULK
OF THE RAIN AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 48 73 52 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 66 49 74 53 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 49 76 53 / 20 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 47 74 53 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 44 74 50 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 51 74 53 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
DISCUSSION...
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 88D PICKING UP A FEW
ECHOES OVER THE DELTA SW OF MEMPHIS BUT PRECIP IS PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND YET. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA THE CURRENT LOW
POP FORECAST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND EAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS FINE. WILL TRIM TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTH MS GIVEN CLOUDS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TUP THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
AFTER 14/12Z.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1125 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...
THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 88D PICKING UP A FEW
ECHOES OVER THE DELTA SW OF MEMPHIS BUT PRECIP IS PROBABLY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND YET. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA THE CURRENT LOW
POP FORECAST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND EAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS FINE. WILL TRIM TEMPS A BIT ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTH MS GIVEN CLOUDS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 50S.
A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... THE SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...PINPOINTING WHAT AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT. WILL CARRY 40 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE NOTHING.
BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP 20S
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NOW THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAN
THE ECMWF. LAST NIGHT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE REVERSED. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR MONDAY AS DON/T REALLY SEE THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS FAST AS THE GFS IS INDICATING. REALLY THINK THE EARLIEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD START WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT MIGHT REALLY
BE TUESDAY.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. CEILINGS HAD TUPELO WILL
APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR ALL SITES LATER ON TODAY...YET NOT CONFIDENT TO PLACE
INTO FORECAST. TLSJR
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE. SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE AND HAVE USED COOLER RUC NUMBERS FOR
TODAY. POPS AND RAINFALL ADJUSTMENTS FROM EARLIER STILL LOOK GOOD.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 725 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
INTERESTING NIGHT ON THE AVIATION DESK...AS LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS NOW FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS...AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN PLACE IN WACO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
NEAR THE BOWIE CORNERPOST...BUT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR DRIZZLE AT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES...AND SHORT TERM
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY NECESSARY UPDATES.
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF NOTE SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WITH THE UPPER LOW IN OKLAHOMA SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WE WILL
SEE CEILINGS BEGIN TO INCREASE...AT LEAST UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS COME BACK.
FOX
&&
.UPDATE...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE THROUGH IS TRACKING EAST THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE A DUE EAST TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK THROUGH THE DAY. H5 TEMPS -17 TO -19 C SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MAINTAIN MID LVL LASPE RATES
6-7 DEG C/KM ACROSS THESE AREAS. FORCING FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE
LESS.
THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE ON REGIONAL RADAR...ANY SMALL ELEVATED
REFLECTIVITY VALUES 25-40 DBZ HAVE SHOWN TO BE EFFICIENT WITH
HEAVIER RAIN RATES WITH SATURATION ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
INVERSION AND BELOW THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HAVE SEEN JUST UNDER
1/4 OF AN INCH IN 10-15 MINS RESULTING IN BRIEF STREET-FLOODING.
THAT SAID...MEAN MOTION TO THE NNE IS FAST AND THUS NO HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR ANY DURATION TO CAUSE
SERIOUS SHORT-FUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH
NEAR THE COOLER H5 TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
SOUTH OF I-20 INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SUBSIDENCE FROM AN EARLIER
QLCS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. FINALLY...CLOUDY SKIES AND SPOTTY
RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
IN BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR
IN THE LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016/
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE INTERCEPTED THE
MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS
STILL LED TO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. OUR CWA
WILL REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW-END INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE
MODELS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL STICK WITH 20S
AND 30S FOR POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST.
A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE PARKING ITSELF OVER
THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE ABRUPT HALT IN ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH MAY COME INTO PLAY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHER TOTALS OCCUR.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE INDICATING THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF A PACIFIC-
TYPE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
BASED ON A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING WEST WHILE THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO PUSH EAST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS BENEATH AN INTENSIFYING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. EVEN AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS...IT WILL STILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DAMPENING OUT AND HEADING EAST OF THE PLAINS.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 56 76 57 79 / 30 10 5 0 5
WACO 69 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5
PARIS 65 52 73 54 75 / 60 20 5 0 5
DENTON 63 53 75 55 78 / 60 10 5 0 5
MCKINNEY 63 52 74 54 77 / 50 10 5 0 5
DALLAS 63 56 76 58 79 / 40 10 5 0 5
TERRELL 65 55 75 55 78 / 40 20 5 0 5
CORSICANA 70 56 76 56 79 / 20 20 5 0 5
TEMPLE 68 55 77 56 80 / 20 10 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 63 52 77 55 79 / 30 5 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PAIRED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE AT
LEAST 6 C/KM FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WAS MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AT 1930Z. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
LINGERED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. BOTH THE 19Z HRRR AND 19Z RAP
INDICATED SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS. THERE WAS AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE
SHORT TERM. WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS DEPART OR
DISSIPATE TEMPERATURES...WHICH DID NOT GET ALL THAT WARM IN THE
FIRST PLACE...COULD DROP LIKE A ROCK TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS KEPT MOISTURE IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-10KFT OVERNIGHT SO
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO COLD. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED ON
THE RHI TIME SECTION.
EXPECT FEW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY...EXCEPT AT LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MOS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
NAM FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE MILD TEMPERATURES...AND THE TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FCST H8 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY. WILL NEED TO SPEED UP THE PCPN
TIMING A BIT.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
FCSTS WILL NOT BE EASY DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN H8 TEMPS
BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...WHICH
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR AT MIDDAY.
THE VFR CIGS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH IFR CIGS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CRIVITZ TO WAUTOMA AS OF 1745Z. THERE
WERE ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS IN THE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...THOUGH
ANYTHING AT THAT POINT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. CIGS SHOULD BECOME
VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND SLOWLY WILL
BE REPLACED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS OF THE RAP AND NAM ARE
INDICATING MOSTLY DRY PROFILES ACROSS S WI TONIGHT...SAVE FOR SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER. SO...SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS S WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 60 TO 65 F RANGE THANKS TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. 13.12Z GFS AND NAM 925 MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO THE 6 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S FURTHER INLAND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SELY SFC FLOW EACH DAY. MO
SUNNY DAYS AND MO CLEAR NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S TO MID-UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FAST WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE BY LATE SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI SUN NT INTO MON WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL THEN DIG A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BE KEPT FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONGER NLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WI FOR TUE AND WED. MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SKIES LOOK TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO EASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
SOME LIGHT MARINE FOG TONIGHT DUE TO THE COOLER LAKE TEMPERATURES
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THIS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF THIS LIGHT MARINE AREA FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING