Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/12/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST SUN APR 10 2016
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM...THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE RATHER MOIST...AND COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS
IN THE -17C TO -18C RANGE) WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN ONCE THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ALMOST AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR
REGION TODAY...RAINFALL CHANCES APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LESS THAN
THE WITH THE CURRENT ONE...SINCE THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THAT THE CURRENT ONE
HAS...AS INDICATED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST
GEFS/GFS IVT FORECAST GRAPHICS. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM 21Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED
SO STILL COVERING BY MENTIONING VCTS IN AREA TAFS. VSBYS MAY ALSO
TEMPORARILY LOWER...3 TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 30 KNOTS IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS LIKELY...AT TIMES
SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY
EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TODAY. CIGS HAVE LIFTED FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO LOWER LEVEL CIGS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND
MID DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING BACK UP WELL INTO THE
80S...OR EVEN CLOSE TO 90...A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SE-WARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AZ...AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-
25 PERCENT RANGE REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WIDEN
INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
OVER SE CA AND SW AZ. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD-
EXCELLENT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1129 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLY HEAVY THUNDER
STORM RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 88-D RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IN AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW CROSSING THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SW AZ. YUMA MARINE CORP AIR STATION HAS
ALREADY MEASURED 0.11 INCH OF RAIN...WHILE BLYTHE AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.04 INCH. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA BY MIDDAY
TODAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SEEING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL RATES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MU CAPE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE AZ...THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR
ANYONE THAT WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS FAR AS
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS...INHERITED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LARGE AND COLD PACIFIC TROF FINALLY MOVED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CA EARLY THIS MORNING. JETSTREAM WINDS INCREASED AND BECAME DIFFLUENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONE QUICK SHOWER OVER THE REMOTE
DESERT EAST OF IMPERIAL MEASURED 0.25 INCHES. THIS WAS NO SURPRISE
GIVEN THAT A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIP WATER WAS
MEASURED ON THE SAN DIEGO SOUNDING LAST EVENING. AT 2 AM A LINE OF
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER
NEAR IMPERIAL CA...NORTH INTO THE MOHAVE DESERTS OF SAN BERNADINO
COUNTY CA.
THE CENTER OF THIS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY JUST NORTH OF YUMA BY LATE MORNING
AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AND DIFFLUENT...I.E. VERY DYNAMICAL WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF AZ THROUGH MID-MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDER-
STORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN PINAL COUNTY...BETWEEN
PHOENIX AND TUCSON...DURING A SHORT TIME WINDOW BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE AND
INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24 EAST OF PHOENIX. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN ZONE 24
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEM...MEANING IT WILL GET STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO AZ MONDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX MONDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM 21Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED
SO STILL COVERING BY MENTIONING VCTS IN AREA TAFS. VSBYS MAY ALSO
TEMPORARILY LOWER...3 TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 30 KNOTS IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS LIKELY...AT TIMES
SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY
EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TODAY. CIGS HAVE LIFTED FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO LOWER LEVEL CIGS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND
MID DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING WELL UP
INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE
25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLY HEAVY THUNDER
STORM RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 88-D RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IN AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW CROSSING THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SW AZ. YUMA MARINE CORP AIR STATION HAS
ALREADY MEASURED 0.11 INCH OF RAIN...WHILE BLYTHE AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.04 INCH. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA BY MIDDAY
TODAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SEEING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL RATES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MU CAPE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE AZ...THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR
ANYONE THAT WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS FAR AS
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS...INHERITED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LARGE AND COLD PACIFIC TROF FINALLY MOVED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CA EARLY THIS MORNING. JETSTREAM WINDS INCREASED AND BECAME DIFFLUENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONE QUICK SHOWER OVER THE REMOTE
DESERT EAST OF IMPERIAL MEASURED 0.25 INCHES. THIS WAS NO SURPRISE
GIVEN THAT A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIP WATER WAS
MEASURED ON THE SAN DIEGO SOUNDING LAST EVENING. AT 2 AM A LINE OF
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER
NEAR IMPERIAL CA...NORTH INTO THE MOHAVE DESERTS OF SAN BERNADINO
COUNTY CA.
THE CENTER OF THIS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY JUST NORTH OF YUMA BY LATE MORNING
AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AND DIFFLUENT...I.E. VERY DYNAMICAL WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF AZ THROUGH MID-MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDER-
STORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN PINAL COUNTY...BETWEEN
PHOENIX AND TUCSON...DURING A SHORT TIME WINDOW BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE AND
INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24 EAST OF PHOENIX. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN ZONE 24
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEM...MEANING IT WILL GET STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO AZ MONDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX MONDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH CIGS BY MIDDAY
IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE. WX RADAR RETURNS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE MIDDAY...RESULTING IN VCSH
COVERAGE FOR MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...AND
MORE STEADY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. LOWERING
CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBYS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY LOWER...3
TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW POST-10/21Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER
INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE LATEST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS 5-7KFT REMAINING UNTIL PARTIAL
CLEARING TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. EARLY EVENING CIGS SHOULD LIFT
AOA 10KFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING WELL UP
INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE
25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
327 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RAIN HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
AS EARLY AS 16Z THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERS NORTHERN
BAJA ON MONDAY EVENING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE TWO STORMS WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE STORM TRACK LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH A THIRD
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS.
&&
AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z.
BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 10/14Z...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 5-8K FT AGL MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WEST OF
KTUS...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA AND SCATTERED -TSRA AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
10/15Z...THEN INCREASING SURFACE WIND...WITH GUSTY SLY/SWLY SFC WIND
AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS BETWEEN 10/17Z AND 11/03Z.
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DIMINISHING
SFC WIND AFT 11/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND THEN AGAIN
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ONE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE SECOND LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER WITH MORE
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF YET
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW CONTINUED TO SWIRL JUST OFF THE NRN
BAJA/FAR SRN CA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WAS READILY SEEN IN THE
00Z PLOT DATA AS WELL AS IR/VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS. LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INLAND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE FAVORED NE QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW
AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE. THE LATEST 00Z SAN DIEGO RAOB
SHOWED PWAT VALUES UP TO NEARLY ONE INCH...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED
MARINE LAYER THAT HAD DEEPENED TO ALMOST 700MB. LATEST NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SWING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE JUST INLAND OVER FAR NRN BAJA
BY 12Z...AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHOWERS START TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF SERN CA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SPREADING QUICKLY INTO SWRN
AZ BY SUNRISE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
SUCH AS HRRR AND WRF. WE EXPECT LITTLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
NOON OR SO. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR POPS/WX/SKY BUT
OVERALL LOOK TO HAVE GOOD TRENDS AND APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW SITUATED ROUGHLY 400 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO CONTINUES MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST
TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
COVERAGE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE BAJA
COAST WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL FIRST MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SET OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY
FOCUSING INITIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...BUT THEN MOVING
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE NEARLY ALL THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER A HALF AN INCH.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
OVERALL MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
AID IN UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO BY 06Z
MONDAY AND THUS MOSTLY ENDING RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THE
TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S AND WITH IT FOLLOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY WITH
CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE
AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL...COOLING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
FORECAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAYS TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. IN OTHER WORDS...AN
EQUAL NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARGUE FOR A MORE NORTHERN AZ TRACK.
THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE MODEST AND SHADED TOWARD THE
LOWER SIDE...MEANING 20-30 PERCENTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE
DEEPER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT...SNOW LEVELS COULD POTENTIAL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...WITH JUST SOME MID-LEVEL SCT-BKN
CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG...AND MOIST
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THEM
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HEATING...THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS
MINIMIZED.
CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 10K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE 4-6K FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
INTO THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE (PERHAPS EVEN LOWER AT KIWA AND KSDL)...BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE 3-5 MILE
RANGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PASSES
THROUGH. 8-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY (IN THE 5-8 KT RANGE) TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 12-16 KT RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THREAT FOR LOW CIGS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RISES ARE SEEN.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD BOTH THE SE CA TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER HAS CREPT
INTO THE MIX...AND VCTS WAS ADDED TO THE KIPL TAF TIL 08Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE 3-5K FOOT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LIFTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL TONIGHT TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE
REGION ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AS WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE
70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING
WELL UP INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN THE 25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT
RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MOSTLY LIKELY SUNDAY.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
301 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY A STRONGER AND UNSEASONABLY COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT (OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS)
SOCAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM OUR STATE...WEAK MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
SPOTTY/LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN 1/4 OF
AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RELATIVELY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN...AS THEY DEPICT A 130+
KNOT JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONE
NOTABLE CHANGE TODAY SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN THEIR
DEPICTION OF HOW THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL FORM. OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THEY DEPICTED A STRONG TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CYCLOGENESIS (MID-LEVEL) OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. TODAY...THEY BOTH SHOW A CLOSED LOW AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST...WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA...THEN HAVING THE LOW REFORM AS IT DEPARTS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STARTS TO GET SAMPLED BY THE RAOB
NETWORK EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HOW "WRAPPED UP" THE SYSTEM LOOKS ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK THE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATIMG THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM/DEPTH OF COLD AIR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN EVEN LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IF THE MODEL
DATA DOES INDEED TREND STRONGER IN LATER RUNS.
IN ANY EVENT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE NORTH OF A EUREKA TO WILLOW CREEK LINE. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED PASSES AS WELL...AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER/DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. -PD
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 3000 FEET
AND PREDOMINATELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP MARINE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...N-NW WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN INCREASING TODAY AS A RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. N-NW WIND FLOW AND SHORT PERIOD
NW SEAS SHOULD START TO EASE UP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
WED AND PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS...MAINLY
FROM CAPE MENDO NORTHWARD. MAIN ISSUE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE
BUILDING LARGE STEEP SEAS AND PERHAPS BOUTS OF STRONG W-NW WINDS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE
DEVELOPING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW ON THU. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE
GENERATION REGION...WAVE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT. HOWEVER
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 18 TO 20 FT...BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 21
TO 25 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY FOR SURF MAY BE
NECESSARY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.Synopsis...
Showers continue in the north state thru Monday with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Mountain showers will likely continue
early this week with another round of showers over the entire
north state around mid week. Snow levels remain high for minimal
mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to
move east. An area of thunderstorms over Lassen County is moving
southwest and may impact Plumas and Shasta Counties later this
afternoon and evening. Snow level will continue to be high and
near 8000 feet but may lower to near 7000 in heavier convection.
the HRRR indicates a good chance that showers will spread west and
into the north end of the valley this evening. Conditions over the
southern half of the CWA should mostly be dry but could see some
isolated showers and sprinkles.
A low along 135W will get sheared apart as it moves towards
Northern California. The southern end will form a low over
Southern California on Monday and help to continue to produce
showers over the northern end of the state...mostly over the
mountains.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
provide enough moisture and instability to bring some showers to
the far northern end of the State and the north end of the valley
and surrounding mountains.
A colder low pressure system will begin to moving into the
northern end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall
below major pass levels with this system and result in travel
impacts.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Colder system will continue to move across NorCal on Thursday with
precipitation across most of the area. Models still indicate
heaviest precipitation will fall over the mountains with snow
levels down to around 4000-4500 feet. This will likely cause
travel impacts through the day Thursday. System begins to shift
east Thursday night into Friday with only a few lingering mountain
showers. Ridging will then build in across the state with drier
weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the weekend.
Valley temperatures may be back into the 80s by Saturday. This
pattern also lends itself to some breezy northerly winds across
the Coastal Range and western side of the Valley. Have removed
precip chances from late Saturday into Sunday as it looks like
models have backed off on the next wave which will still be out
over the Pacific into early next week.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers through late this evening, especially
across the NorCal mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.
MVFR/IFR low clouds may continue across Valley TAF sites into
Monday. South winds will remain 10 kts or less.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
157 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE
SOCAL BIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
RADAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HITTING THE GAGES AT THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL MOVIE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO MOST OF SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING SOME OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO GET SOME
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEVELOPING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK DECENT. BOTH
THE NAM-WRF AND RAP SOUNDINGS LOOKED PROMISING FOR SOME
CONVECTION. THE NAM INDICATED LI READINGS TO AROUND -7 IN THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND AROUND -5 FOR THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
KEEP FROM HEATING THE SURFACE. IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...IT WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THEN DRIFTING SE INTO THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION NEAR A THUNDERSTORM WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH COULD
FALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS REMAINS VALID THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER IF
STORMS DO NOT FIRE UP IN A FEW HOURS...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS...MOSTLY WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DOWNTOWN
ALREADY REACHED 70 DEGREES WHILE MOST VALLEYS REMAINED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. IT WAS COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA
HAS ROTATED IN A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SRN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. THIS
NW TO SE AXIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NRN AND NE FACING SLOPES ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING UPPER
LOW...ANOTHER UPPER LVL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PAC.IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IT WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE TOWARDS SAN DIEGO
AND NRN BAJA...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGHER
POPS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 500-700 MB.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE LOCAL ROAD
FLOODING IF ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP. THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE STORMS
COULD DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO TREND
HIGHER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN EDDY
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIN UP A DEEP MARINE LAYER
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF LA/VTU AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES.
MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NW WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE CENTRAL COAST MOSTLY CLEAR. MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND LOMPOC AND VANDENBERG AFB.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A
DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES
WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE...MIGHT BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREAS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDOWNER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MTNS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE NEXT
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SLO COUNTY.
HAVE HEDGED BACK POPS ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THEN DIG SOUTH OVER
NEVADA. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHREAL SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MOSTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE
VTU/LA COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN SLO/SBA VALLEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST DUE
TO SUNDOWNER WINDS. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MTNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FRI
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...10/18Z
AT 10Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 09Z- 17Z AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTY COAST 12Z-
17Z.
LAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...10/200 PM...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOSTLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WITH MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY BURN
AREAS...(SPRINGS AND SOLIMAR BURN AREAS) WHICH ARE LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL VENTURA COUNTY. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY...AROUND 1200 J/KG OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND
AROUND 1700 J/KG OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS TODAY...WITH LESS
CHANCE FOR COAST AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL TAKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT POPS IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND ALL OF L.A. COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY...THEY WILL VARY
FROM SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY TO BETWEEN .10" TO A QUARTER
INCH...BUT SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OR AREAS AFFECTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO A HALF INCH...OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET AND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL TODAY ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING
ACROSS COAST AND VALLEY AREAS DUE TO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CUTOFF AROUND SAN DIEGO OR NRN BAJA. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE ADVERTISING EARLIER. THIS WILL
RESULT ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE VENTURA/L.A COUNTY MTNS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INITIALIZE THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL TOTALS...MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...AND
MORE LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING UNDER SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A
LITTLE WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RUN OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND
WILL COME IN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.
THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY IS THAT ALL MDLS NOW SHOW THURSDAYS STORM
PASSING HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH (WELL TO THE NORTH) THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS A RESULT AND IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TELL THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT THE
WEATHER.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS A RIDGE SETS UP JUST
OFF THE COAST AND KEEPS THE SRN PORTION OF THE STATE UNDER DRY NW
FLOW. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS TEMPS THE EC IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFS. SINCE IT IS MID APRIL AND THE SUN WILL BE
PRETTY STRONG BIASED THE FCST TOWARDS THE WARMER EC.
&&
.AVIATION...10/18Z...
AT 10Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 09Z- 17Z AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTY COAST 12Z-
17Z.
LAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...10/830 AM...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 054-088-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CK
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage for
this afternoon and evening mainly north of I-80. Latest HRRR is
showing a strong potential for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon north of Pyramid Lake with some heavier rainfall
amounts. This matches up well with the latest visible satellite
image that is showing clear skies over Lassen and Northern Washoe
Counties which will help to destabilize this afternoon with much
better solar heating that over the Reno-Carson-Tahoe area. The
stronger thunderstorms north of Reno will be capable of heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
Coverage of showers have diminished early this morning...but is
expected to increase again later today as heating and upper level
forcing combine to produce enough instability to drive showers and
a few thunderstorms. The upper low responsible for all of the
activity should drift east today from southern CA into AZ by later
tonight. This will lead to less instability for our area tonight
and Monday. For now...we will update to reduce coverage through
the morning hours then let coverage increase in the afternoon. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move over far southern California and Nevada today.
Moist wrap-around flow will bring some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to eastern California and western Nevada today.
Monday and Tuesday, the coverage of showers wanes as modest ridging
builds overhead. For mid to late week, a stronger and colder system
will bring breezy conditions with chances for rain and snow.
SHORT TERM...
A nice soaking rain was had since yesterday afternoon, with far
western Nevada and the Tahoe area hitting the jackpot with widespread
0.50" to 0.80" of precipitation. It was mainly rain below 7500-8000
feet around the region, although heavier precipitation did drag
down snow levels to between 6500 and 7000 feet for the Tahoe area
per spotter reports and CALTRANS cams (Echo Summit on Highway 50
was briefly slushy Saturday evening). Outside of the Reno-Tahoe
area, precip amounts were on the order of 0.20" to 0.40", tapering
to less than a tenth in central and southern Mono and Mineral
Counties.
This morning, precip coverage has dropped off to mainly isolated
light showers. For this afternoon through Monday, convective
coverage will be on the decline as upper forcing wanes and
convective development relies increasingly on residual moisture
and diurnal heating. Afternoon temperatures look to top out near
or even slightly above average today and Monday.
For late Monday night and Tuesday, I have lowered POP and re-
aligned the shower chances to the far northern (Lassen-northern
Washoe Counties) and southern-eastern portions (Mono-Mineral-
eastern Pershing/Churchill Counties) of the region. The NAM and
GFS do show very light QPF and high 700 mb moisture for other
areas of western NV Tuesday afternoon but it looks like just some
cumulus development with no apparent large-scale forcing and only
modestly above average temperatures. Snyder
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Main changes made to the forecast this cycle were to increase pops
slightly Wednesday night into Thursday morning and make a few minor
adjustments to snow levels. Overall the deterministic models are a
little better with coming together on a broad pattern evolution...
but there are still disagreements in the details.
The GFS and most of its ensemble members are now more progressive
early in the extended period with moving a trough into the region by
Thursday...but the ECMWF remains faster and more progressive with
this feature. The GFS and most of its ensemble members start to
develop a closed low by Friday morning while the ECMWF moves the
trough east and starts to build the ridge. These differences
continue to lead to a low confidence forecast regarding the details
in the extended period. Pops were raised in the far western part of
the forecast area for Wednesday night in deference to the ECMWF
while snow levels were raised slightly Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
We could also be looking at breezy conditions developing ahead of
the long wave trough late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given that
it is mid April the temperatures were allowed to rise a bit for
Thursday and Friday even with a cold upper low over the region.
Heavy showers could drag snow levels briefly below 5000 feet on
Thursday...but the cessation of showers and a lack of completely
overcast skies would allow snow levels to rise again and
temperatures to rebound quickly.
With a ridge starting to build by Friday afternoon/evening...
Saturday temperatures were also raised a few degrees. 20
Aviation...
Showers should redevelop today over the region as heating increases
and a weak upper level deformation area associated with an upper low
over southern CA provides increased forcing. Instability may
increase enough by this afternoon for a few thunderstorms as well.
At this point it remains difficult to pinpoint the areas where the
more concentrated heavier showers will develop...but in the heavier
showers cigs/vsbys should drop to MVFR/IFR. Snow levels should
remain generally above 8000 feet...but the heavier showers could
drag these down to around 6500 feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1025 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE INLAND MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT SATURDAY...BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES WSW OF SAN
DIEGO. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN
GREATEST ACROSS THE EAST BAY WHERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AND A DEEP
LAYER OF MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER CA. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.03"...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 1.15" FROM
THE 12Z SOUNDING BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS FOCUS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
SAN FRANCISCO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SF BAY AREA AND INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE INLAND
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM THE DIABLO RANGE SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO
COUNTY AND EASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. THE 00Z NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NAPA COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL
THEN TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE DESERT SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK INLAND ON MONDAY
ALONG A TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT UPPER LOW.
THUS...PRECIP POTENTIAL ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SF BAY AREA AND LOCALLY FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY MERGE AND FORM AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTH BAY AREAS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE AIR
REMAINS AT OR NEAR SATURATION COUPLED WITH WEAK LOWER LEVEL
COOLING FORECAST TONIGHT EXPECT PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SPOTTY WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO LATE SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. PATCHY IFR NEARBY IS A
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR. HOWEVER PATCHY IFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LARGER WEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1147 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED EARLY
EVENING WINDS AND FIRE WX GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THRU
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUN EVENING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
KCOS AND KPUB AREAS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1021 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED EARLY
EVENING WINDS AND FIRE WX GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. S-SW WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID DECK..AROUND FL100..MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SEABREEZE INFLUENCED WIND HAS BACKED FLOW AROUND TO 170-190 AT
THE NYC TERMINALS AND HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS KHPN. GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE/DW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SWLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SWLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
ABOUT A HALF INCH RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
231 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI
INVOF THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE
SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG
AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING
FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE TO PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE
JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE
AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE
AREAS. TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS
WITH PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVELS EXHIBIT A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK. THEN THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP...BECOMING MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO END AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED
THOUGH AS MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS SETS UP WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THIS KEEPS THE
REGION WITH MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
IN TERMS OF WINDS...TUE-TUE NGT WILL HAVE SCA WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE OCEAN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
HAVE MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SOME SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD END AS SOME SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PERSISTING...GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 MPH
RANGE.
WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASE
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME TEMPS COULD
EVEN REACH 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ONCE THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
RADAR TRENDS...AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 6 PM. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR A VERY DRY LAYER TO PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...THINK LITTLE IF ANY WOULD REACH THE GROUND...WITH
PERHAPS JUST VIRGA. SO...JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY OR AFTER 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL AFTER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD HAVE PEEKED INTO THE 30S /AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE TERRAIN/ FOR THE TERRAIN AND 40S
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER RATHER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES WILL YIELD TO OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY
INITIALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
THIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPES...PER COLLABORATION FROM WPC
WWD /WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WINTER WEATHER DESK/...THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF WINTRY TYPE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY OVERNIGHT WITH 40-50KTS LOW
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THROUGH THE WET BULB PROCESSES...THE INITIAL
ONSET OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARD SLEET THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AS
H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO +2C TO +4C...A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CLOSER LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES AND THE SREF PRECIP-TYPE
PROBABILITIES...SEEMS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLEET/FZRA
WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z MONDAY. THE 21Z SREF HAD HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR FZRA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND
ADIRONDACKS AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE 03Z SREF IS NOW HALF THAT
AMOUNT. LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT DROPPING TOO MUCH DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A CLOSE COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES...DUE TO DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES AND NARROW WINDOW OF
WINTRY MIXTURE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ADIRONDACK REGION BEFORE THE TRANSITION.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE REGION IS WELL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AS ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SO SOME BRIEF
WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUGGESTED IN
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPSTREAM FRONT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AND DEVELOP WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE HIGH POPS FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE REGION WARM FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE GGEM/GFS/NAM SUGGESTING A BIT FASTER TIMING
WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION FOR
A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW TOWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH
AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. AS STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE TERRAIN OR ALL RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED. WITH SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...VALLEY TEMPS MAY TOUGH 50F WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED AND SOME COOLER UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A PERIOD FEATURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLOCKING AT UPPER LEVELS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD....A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY /FALLING AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES C/....SO
MINS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE REGION...EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALSO
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON JUST FAR AWAY THE FRONT DOES WIND UP
STALLING OUT. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN WESTERN
AREAS...TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
TEMPS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S...AND LOWS STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE
IT ORIGINALLY APPEARED THAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WOULD
OCCUR...THIS IS NOW LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
FORM UNDER THIS RIDGE AND DRIFT AND MEANDER CLOSE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS KEEPING THIS CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO OUR REGION. SOME
GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
QUITE A NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH NO RAIN AT ALBANY.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS FEATURE IS TO OUR REGION...A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY...COOL...AND RAINY WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IF THIS STORM
DRIFTS AROUND JUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...IT WOULD
REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SKY COVER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MUCH
CLOUDIER IF THE STORM DOES REMAIN NEAR OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...WILL
GO WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED IF
IT APPEARS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS/RAIN BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. ASIDE FROM FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-
6 KFT. WITH THE WARM FRONT STARTING TO GET CLOSE...THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST SITES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME RAINFALL
WILL BE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS /AFTER 09Z/ AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT KPSF/KGFL
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRECIP MOVING IN...CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS...AND PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR AS
WELL. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD...WHICH ENDS AT
12Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
TONIGHT TO 10-15 KTS...ESP AT KALB/KPSF...WHERE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
COULD BE AROUND 20 KTS. THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD END AS SOME SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-15 MPH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT OF 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-95 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOPING... AND STAYING ABOVE 50
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIXTURE TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS
OF RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH TOTALS THROUGH
TUESDAY OF ONE HALF INCH...TO UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
440 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...BREEZY ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN SEVERAL
INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S COASTAL NE FL. EXPECT A SLOW
TEMP FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.NEAR TERM...TODAY-TONIGHT...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES EARLY THIS
MORNING IS NOW POSITIONED N OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR VEERING
FLOW...WITH LATEST JAX VWP PROFILE SHOWING NNE TO NE WINDS 15-20
KT AT 1-2 KFT. A 700 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE NERN GULF TO THE
SERN U.S. COAST BY LATER TODAY...WITH GFS AND RAP MODEL SHOWING A
500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN FL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING A MORE DOMINATE NE AND THEN E...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S CENTRAL CWA AND LOWER
70S TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
W WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTN AFTER A MOSTLY
SUNNY EARLY MORNING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND HAVE
INDICATED MINIMAL POPS (AROUND 10-20 PERCENT) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. SHOULD BE BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ELY WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH...ABOUT 10-15 MPH INLAND.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MID LEVELS NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST
MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN. LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO VEER WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING SELY FLOW DOMINATING OVER NE FL AND SSE OVER SE GA PORTION.
MAY SEE OCCASIONS OF BROKEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME BUT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FCST. SOME BRIEF LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH VERY
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SO KEEPING POPS AOB 10
PERCENT ATTM. MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY INLAND FOG BUT NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME AS VSBY GENERALLY STAYS ABOVE 3 MILES. LOWS
WILL BE MORE MILD WITH LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT THE COAST UNDER LIGHT E TO SE FLOW.
MONDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLC WELL EWD RESULTING IN PREVAILING
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWER 80S INLAND AND
AROUND 75 TO 80 ALONG THE COAST...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS
BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH FROM THE SE WITH A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ANTICIPATED.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON MON NIGHT AND TUES...EXITING THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUES AND
TUES EVENING. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
MON NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE LIKELY PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
DESPITE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA ON TUES MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TUES AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST FL.
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TUES
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON TUES NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
TROUGHS ALOFT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL STALL...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS ENERGY MAY COMBINE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST GA. HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL
FL. A WAVE OF SHOWERS MAY THEN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GA TO THE 60-65 RANGE
IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURS AND
FRI...RESULTING IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURS AND
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THURS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRI. WE EXPECT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH FRI EVENING...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
WILL USE THE MODEL BLEND FOR THURS AND FRI THAT PAINTS SCATTERED
POPS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION...BUT POPS MAY BE RAISED FOR THURS NIGHT
AND FRI IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. A
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY AND CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
STATES. HIGHS THURS AND FRI WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AND AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S FOR INLAND
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL STORM SPINNING UP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD LEAVE OUR REGION WITHIN A DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DRY WEATHER OVERSPREADING OUR REGION BY
FRI NIGHT. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WOULD PREVAIL IN THIS
SCENARIO...WITH HIGHS NEAR MID-APRIL CLIMO (GENERALLY IN THE 70S)
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WITH LOCAL CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THE SREF MODEL SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (ABOUT 2-3 KFT)
AFTER ABOUT 19Z/20Z BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO
INCLUDE FOR THE COASTAL TAFS. WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY NE AROUND
12Z- 15Z...BECOMING ELY THEREAFTER AT 10-15 G20KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND THEN E TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND
15-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT...JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA. SCEC IS
HEADLINED FOR THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THOUGH WITH
SOME DECREASE BY MONDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AND
SOUTH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BUT LIKELY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN ANOTHER NORTHEAST SURGE OF WIND
APPEARS LIKELY ON WED INTO THU...BUT ACTUAL SPEEDS STILL IN
QUESTION AND TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
RIP CURRENTS: EXPECT ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED SURF FROM BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...BUT WIND
SPEEDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH...AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED. ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AND TUES
REGION-WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 55 80 59 / 0 0 10 20
SSI 67 62 74 64 / 0 10 10 10
JAX 73 58 79 61 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 73 63 76 63 / 20 10 10 0
GNV 76 56 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 77 57 82 60 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WEDGE INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS ONLY A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMS IN FROM THE LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT CENTERS ON THIS CONVECTION AND THE
CHANCE THAT ANY REMNANT OF IT CAN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MAIN CORE OF THE
CONVECTION IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND HAS MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION TO IT...MEANING IT WILL LIKELY MISS US
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND EVEN THE GFS SEEM TO BE
CAPTURING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CONVECTION WELL AND BOTH SHOW A
DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. THIS SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH RAINFALL...AS EVIDENCED BY PLENTY OF DRY AIR
BELOW 400 MB ON THE 00Z KCHS RAOB. OVERALL...POPS LOOK TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ITS HARD TO GO MUCH HIGHER ON RAIN CHANCES THAN
30-40 PERCENT IN THIS SCENARIO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. NO CHANGES TO LOWS WHICH STILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES. DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND WE
TRENDED DOWNWARD ON POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT MODELS STILL
PAINT BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR PLENTY OF LAYERED
CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN A BROAD REGION OF MID LEVEL OMEGA AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE. BETTER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER THAN PAST MODEL RUNS AND BOTH SURFACE
BASED AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAIN ON THE WEAK IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DECREASING
STEADILY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION LOOKS VERY SLIM NOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE AND WE BACKED
DOWN ON LATE DAY POPS A BIT THIS PACKAGE...STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE
MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MID ATLC AND CAROLINAS DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE RAINS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES BY AND DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS FADE.
WE CONTINUE TO DIMINISH POPS OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST STILL HAS MANY UNCERTAINTIES
WITH A COMPLEX BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXPANDING BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. THE ONE CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE A STRONG WEDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE COOLER THAN CLIMO WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
PLACE ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SE GEORGIA ON WED...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE NW TIER ON
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT WITH
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A SURFACE WAVE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES FOR
THESE PERIODS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE
EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT SCENARIOS...
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WELL THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE CEILINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THOUGH...AND WILL KEEP IT VFR FOR NOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN INLAND OF THE TERMINALS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED A PREVAILING SHRA FOR NOW...AS THE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS
TOO LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A COOL AND STABLE SURFACE WEDGE
RESULTING IN CLOUDS LINGERING BELOW THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10-15 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS
2-4 FT.
TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3
FT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS
RESULTING IN WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
NE SURGE LIKELY LATE. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ON WED. THE
SURGE WILL REACH GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NE FLOW 15-20 KT AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 4-6 FT LATE OVER OUTER
WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEDGE WED NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. THE GFS HAS
ROBUST SURGING ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING THE PERIOD AS A WAVE
MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST ENHANCES THE PRES GRADIENT. THE ECMWF
MODEL DEPICTS THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND SUGGESTS LIGHTER
WINDS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WED NIGHT BEFORE A POTENT SURGE
FOLLOWS THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THU. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN WITH A WINDOW FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS AT SOME POINT LATE WEEK A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8-10 FT OFFSHORE WITH HIGHER
SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOTS OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST BUT PERHAPS
NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
VERY SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PUMPING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO IDAHO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA AS AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IDAHO...THIS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. EXPECTING TWO SHARPLY
DIVIDED SCENARIOS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST MORE IN DOUBT. UP FRONT...THERE IS NO QUESTION
THAT SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THU
NIGHT. BEYOND THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE OF
TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE DRIER THAN THE WED NIGHT TO THU
NIGHT TIMEFRAME...BUT THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SO...WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHTS AND AN EXITING CLOSED LOW THAT IS MUCH DRIER AND
FASTER TO EXIT DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS DURING THIS DRIER PERIOD. SNOW MAY RETURN DURING THIS TIME
FOR AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR OF THE LOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND AS WELL. THE LONG WAVE FORECAST
AT 500MB NOT HELPING TOO MUCH. IT CONTINUES THE NEAR ZONAL AND
MODERATE TO FAST FLOW INTO FRI NIGHT OR SO...THEN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS DOES BRING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
CONFIRMS A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A LITTLE BIT DURING THAT TIME. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...INSTABILITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF -TSRA AT ALL FOUR AIRDROMES...BUT THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS KIDA TO DRY OUT AND STABILIZE FASTER
THAN THE OTHER THREE AIRPORTS. FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT KPIH BETWEEN
09/23Z AND 10/01Z AND KBYI BETWEEN 10/00Z AND 10/02Z...BOTH TIMINGS
BASED ON HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. AFTER SOME POST CONVECTION
CLEARING...A LATE NIGHT BAND OF MOISTURE AT OR JUST BELOW 700MB
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MON. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
137 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY GOOD LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS LED
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING ELEVATED WARM FRONT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FOR THE MOST
PART ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S)...EVAPORATIONAL COOLING/WET BULBING IS
ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO FALL LARGELY AS A SNOW/SLEET MIX....WITH
RAIN BEING OBSERVED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT
IS PUNCHING IN. WITH THE DRY LOW LAYERS...THERE HAVE LARGELY ONLY
BEEN TRACE ACCUMULATIONS TO THIS POINT. WET BULBING WILL CONTINUE
FOR A BIT LONGER...AND THERE ARE SOME HEALTHIER ECHOES ON RADAR
THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS CLOUD BASES LOWER. A PERUSAL OF AREA WEBCAMS AT
THIS POINT ONLY SHOW WET PAVEMENT AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE...AS
DEWPOINTS SURFACE INTO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THUS EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THIS INITIAL SHOT OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION TO START THE DAY INITIALLY...THOUGH ECHOES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FESTER ON RADAR WITH WEAKER LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN PLACE. AS THIS OCCURS THE WARM NOSE WILL MOVE IN WHICH
WILL QUICKLY ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER RAIN THIS MORNING
OR EVEN SOME DRY PERIODS AS WE WAIT FOR THE UPPER FORCING AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL MOVE EAST
SOMEWHAT SLOWLY...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE AND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THIS INITIAL COUPLED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL
PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A THUNDER MENTION LARGELY SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 7 DEG/KM. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL CRUISE OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS EVENING AND LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THOUGH WITH THE UPPER FORCING HEADS NORTH WHICH
WILL ACT TO DECREASE COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHERN
EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT HANGS UP TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AS IT MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL
TREND TOWARD THAT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK AS LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES CLOSES OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING BLOCK PATTERN THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA
UNDER THE RIDGE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING BACK TO AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH LAKE
BREEZES KEEPING LAKE AREAS MUCH COOLER.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AT ISSUANCE
TIME...THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH MORE SCT SHRA ACROSS NRN IL. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SRN WI AND ERN IA.
EXPECT THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND ASSOCIATED LOWERING CIGS
WILL LIFT NWRD ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM THE TOP DOWN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION.
THUNDER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
LATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
WI-IA TO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL IL TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME TS POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...TIMING THE
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SOME SCT/EMBEDDED TS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS LASALLE/LIVINGSTON COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACKING
NEWD. WHILE NO LIGHTNING IS BEING CURRENTLY OBSERVED...THERE IS
SOME CHANCE FOR TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SUGGESTING THAT MDW/GYY WOULD BE IN
THE MOST FAVORABLE TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF TS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
GUSTY SLY-SSWLY WINDS WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A PERIOD OF
30KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 7 PM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was spreading
eastward across central IL early this afternoon ahead of a warm
front pushing into eastern MO. This will bring MVFR conditions
for a time especially with heavier rain showers. The back edge of
this convection near the MS river will spread eastward to IL
river/PIA by 20Z and to DEC and CMI by 23Z. Breezy South winds
13-19 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon will diminish to
9-14 kts by sunset. MVFR ceilings to be more prevalent late this
afternoon and into tonight and could see ceilings to 1k ft or
below at PIA and BMI by this evening. A cold front over central IA
and nw MO will push southeast to the IA/IL border by sunset and
more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop along
and ahead of it this evening. The front pushes to PIA by 04Z and
to DEC and CMI by 06-07Z with SSW winds this evening shifting nw
at 6-10 kts behind it overnight and more northerly near 10 kts
Sunday morning. Low pressure over southeast CO to eject ne along
the frontal boundary in southeast IL by 18Z Monday and keep
showers going along I-72 and south. Northern TAF sites of BMI and
especially PIA to be dry later tonight into Monday while ceilings
elevate to VFR, and may even scatter out at PIA during Monday
morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was spreading
eastward across central IL early this afternoon ahead of a warm
front pushing into eastern MO. This will bring MVFR conditions
for a time especially with heavier rain showers. The back edge of
this convection near the MS river will spread eastward to IL
river/PIA by 20Z and to DEC and CMI by 23Z. Breezy South winds
13-19 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon will diminish to
9-14 kts by sunset. MVFR ceilings to be more prevalent late this
afternoon and into tonight and could see ceilings to 1k ft or
below at PIA and BMI by this evening. A cold front over central IA
and nw MO will push southeast to the IA/IL border by sunset and
more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop along
and ahead of it this evening. The front pushes to PIA by 04Z and
to DEC and CMI by 06-07Z with SSW winds this evening shifting nw
at 6-10 kts behind it overnight and more northerly near 10 kts
Sunday morning. Low pressure over southeast CO to eject ne along
the frontal boundary in southeast IL by 18Z Monday and keep
showers going along I-72 and south. Northern TAF sites of BMI and
especially PIA to be dry later tonight into Monday while ceilings
elevate to VFR, and may even scatter out at PIA during Monday
morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Warm advection and isentropic lift will increase today as a warm
front lifts N-NE across Illinois. Showers will likely be occurringat
SPI by 13z, with rain overspreading the remaining TAF sites
through CMI by 15z. Forecast soundings suggest cigs lowering to
MVFR category this afternoon. HRRR and RAP ceiling projections
show that KPIA and KBMI will have higher chances of seeing IFR
cigs during the afternoon, but all sites could see brief periods
of IFR ceilings this afternoon. Prevailing MVFR cigs will continue
into the evening hours along with scattered showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms, especially from KSPI to KDEC. Rain should
eventually come to an end for PIA and BMI before the end of this
TAF period, with showers continuing across the southern terminals
through 12z/11Apr.
The 12z ILX sounding shows LLWS criteria will continue this
morning, with 1800Ft winds at 50kts from the SW. Surface winds
will increase from the south at 18-22G32KT. As a cold front
approaches this evening, look for surface winds to veer into a
southwest to west direction with the FROPA, and wind speeds
decreasing to 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLE OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DRY WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. 14Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR THEREAFTER. SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL
HASTEN THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS
QUICKLY JUMP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY 18-19Z WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD LIKEWISE SURGE INTO THE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT. HI-RES GUIDANCE TRACKS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY 19-20Z AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF EMBEDDED
THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A 60+KT LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT PEAK
GUSTS CONSISTENTLY INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
BUMPED UP THE WINDS A FEW KNOTS THROUGH 16Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/MK
HYDROLOGY...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLE OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DRY WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. 14Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR THEREAFTER. SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL
HASTEN THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS
QUICKLY JUMP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY 18-19Z WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD LIKEWISE SURGE INTO THE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT. HI-RES GUIDANCE TRACKS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY 19-20Z AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF EMBEDDED
THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A 60+KT LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT PEAK
GUSTS CONSISTENTLY INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
HYDROLOGY...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A POCKET OF WHAT
APPEARS TO BE GRAUPEL OR SLEET PER DUAL POL VARIABLES...IS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z WILL BE ALL OR NEARLY ALL LIQUID
HOWEVER. WILL RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
K INDEX VALUES INDICATE SOME OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A RESULT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO EXTREMELY MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AGREE RELATIVELY WELL WITH UPSTREAM NUMBERS
AND WERE USED WITH MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ031-038>042-
047>049-055>057-064-065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP
TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE
BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY.
THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY
AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING
THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY
NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON.
WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE
WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN
QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S.
CUTOFF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CIGS EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG KRDK/KDSM/KALO
LINE. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SERN IA AND KOTM BY 01Z WITH PRECIP ENDING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NWLY WINDS WITH MINOR GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN AFTER 15Z MON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON
TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST
1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE
PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...BEFORE MOST ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN TAFS FOR KGLD OR KMCK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (2500-3000 KFT) AT KGLD...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THESE LOWER CIGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER...AND WINDS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES THE CURRENT PATTERN. THERE ARE STILL SPEED
AND POSITION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GFS IN GENERAL IS
SLOWER...ESPECIALLY EARLY...AND FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM IS GETS MUCH WORSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST GFS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A SLIGHT
TRENDING TOWARD FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH. THE LATEST ECMWF IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THERE IS
SLIGHT SUPPORT FOR FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MEMBERS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. BASED ON THE BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOWN...A
SLOWER EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY.
IN GENERAL BOTH SOLUTIONS DO SUPPORT A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING MORE PRECIPITATION AND HOLDING ONTO
THE PRECIPITATION LONGER. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
THE GULF WIDE OPEN BY FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND THE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SHOWN BY THE
NAEFS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO THE WIND PROFILE
AND INSTABILITY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A DECENT SHOT AT OUR FIRST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL NOT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND COLLABORATION...AM PLANNING ON NOT
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT BLEND GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...BEFORE MOST ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN TAFS FOR KGLD OR KMCK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (2500-3000 KFT) AT KGLD...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THESE LOWER CIGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
MIGHT SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THAT SYSTEM WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AND BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE POSITIVE
MUCAPE SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEN MUCAPE
GOES TO ZERO AFTER 03Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF BY MONDAY RANGES FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WEST OF A WRAY TO TRIBUNE LINE AND LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE EAST OF THAT LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY BUT MUCH COOLER ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TOO
HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF A SPECIFIC DISCRETE SHOWER
TO PASS OVER EITHER TAF SITE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN
FOR THE GLD TAF THROUGH 08Z.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING SO HAVE PUT IN
A VCSH AFTER 02Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
At 00z Sunday a weak 500mb trough was located over eastern
Colorado and southwest Kansas. Further west an upper low was
located just off the southern California coast. Another better
defined upper level trough was moving east across south central
Canada. A surface and 850mb trough extended from southeast
Colorado to a cold front which was located in south Dakota. +17 to
+20c 850mb temperatures were observed at 00z Sunday near this
trough axis. Southerly 850mb winds at 40 to 50 knots across Texas
and Oklahoma were drawing higher dew points northward towards
south central Kansas. Surface dew points earlier this evening
across western Oklahoma were in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Immediate short term concern is if it will precipitate this evening.
Satellite and observations show some mid level clouds working in from
the southwest. This is in association with a weak wave that will pass
over later tonight. The HRRR is fairly aggressive, while the ARW is
fairly conservative. Observations show there isn`t much moisture with
this system, so would rather side with the drier solution. I do have
slight pops across west-central Kansas tonight. Even if it did rain,
we are talking about very light accumulations (only a few hundredths).
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will drift over the region this
afternoon and tonight. With the clouds and downslope winds, overnight
lows will be on the mild side - upper 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
A cold front will work through the region tomorrow. Ahead of this front,
downslope flow is expected, and very warm temperatures are likely across
the OK border - low to mid 80s. To the north, low to mid 70s are expected.
There could be elevated fire weather conditions across far southwest
Kansas, however, winds look marginal at this time. Otherwise, have pops
ramping through Sunday night and into Monday morning as upslope/isentropic
lift develops. The highest pops will be along the OK border, where the
lift is stronger along. Severe weather is becoming more unlikely as
the warm sector along with resultant cape is displaced to the southeast
and south. There is some mucape forecast, however, upscale growth could
limit hail potential. To add, the ECMWF is conservative on mucape while
the NAM is higher. I think quarter size hail would be pushing the upper
end of the hail size envelope. Beyond Monday, a dry forecast is expected.
Warm air advection and lee troughing will resume. Attention the turns
to the end of the week. This is our next chance for precipitation. A
large trough is forecast with moderate dewpoints ahead of said system.
The ECMWF has this feature spinning with considerable moisture advection
associated with it. QPF from the model is impressive and over 5" across
far western Kansas. Something to watch. The basic ingredients for severe
is there, however, significant cloud cover is also forecast from the
ECMWF. This may limit instability overall... small mesoscale details
are still unknown. Again, something to watch. It`s Spring and doesn`t
take much to generate a tstorm across Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
An area of mid level clouds will cross western Kansas overnight
as a weak upper level disturbance crosses the Central Plains. A
few sprinkles or even an isolated shower will also be possible but
given such a low probability of this to occur will not include
this in the near 06z tafs. Gusty south winds at near 20 knots at
06z Sunday will decrease to around 10 knots between 09z and 12z as
a surface trough axis crosses western Kansas. A cold front will
then drop south across western Kansas during the day on Sunday. As
this front passes a westerly wind at 10 to 15 knots will shift to
the north and increase to 15 to near 20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 80 41 57 / 10 10 60 60
GCK 49 78 42 57 / 20 10 60 70
EHA 49 82 41 52 / 10 10 60 60
LBL 50 85 44 53 / 10 10 60 60
HYS 50 73 42 59 / 10 0 30 30
P28 53 84 49 57 / 10 10 70 60
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF A SPECIFIC DISCRETE SHOWER
TO PASS OVER EITHER TAF SITE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN
FOR THE GLD TAF THROUGH 08Z.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING SO HAVE PUT IN
A VCSH AFTER 02Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
938 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
WEAKEN AS THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDES TO THE EAST WITH THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
MAIN SHRA/TSRA ACTION REMAINS ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST. NAM12 SHOWS WE SHOULD BE
COVERED WITH TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C & S LA NOW WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
WHERE IT SUPPOSED TO BE. THUS...USING HRRR AS A GUIDE FOR LATER
CONVECTION TIMING ACROSS C LA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FOR
AEX...TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BETWEEN 06-09Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND INTERMITTENT LIFR
BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR ALL SITES. FRONT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH AEX
AFTER DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
14-15Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO RUN UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT THAT
EXTENDS BACK INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL HANG UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK AND HIGHER MOISTURES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS INLAND.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HAVE PASSED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
COOL FRONT AS IT MAKES IT WAY TO THE COASTLINE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL RAMP UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGNITE AS OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. RAINS WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
A COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL FRONT WILL
STALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MEANDER IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 65 73 56 71 / 50 20 30 50
LCH 69 80 60 72 / 40 20 60 80
LFT 70 79 63 73 / 40 30 50 80
BPT 68 80 61 72 / 30 20 70 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
822 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX WITH VSBY OCNLY LESS THAN 1SM. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CONV MOVES OUT.
AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING.
AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE TUE AFTERNOON. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD IN
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS TO 30 KT AS SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT
AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE W WINDS. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP AT KSAW EARLY AFTERNOON MON WITH INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW AT H25 ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NW FLOW OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF
THE JET WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD ON MON WITH STRONGEST FORCING AND
SFC LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. WEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND NW WINDS AT
H85 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON MONDAY. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS OVER
WEST HALF OF CWA ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO H7. IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY
KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. THOUGH A FEW
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW MAY OCCUR THERE...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO INCREASE MON EVENING ALONG
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
SFC-H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN.
COLDEST AIR LAGS THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW MON NIGHT. COULD BE A QUICK FEW INCHES THOUGH IN THE EVENING AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BY TUE...STRONGEST JET CORE RIDES AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH RISING HEIGHTS SPREADING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERMAL TROUGH AT
H85 /-10C TO -11C/ STILL HAS TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS IN BLYR BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND EVENTUALLY SW IN THE AFTN
AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H5 /NEAR -30C/ HEADING NORTH AND EAST
OVER CANADA SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR TO A MINIMUM.
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY FOCUS A QUICK MOVING BATCH OF LGT SNOW INTO
MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT JET STREAK AND
H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS OWING TO THE DECENT H85 TEMP GRADIENT FM
EASTERN DAKOTAS TO LK SUPERIOR /+14C IN SD TO -6C OVER LK SUPERIOR/
WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE SNOW. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEGATIVES. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR WEST LATE TUE NIGHT. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON WED ACROSS THE
CWA. WARMER AIR AT SFC WORKS IN BY WED AFTN WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
PAST 40 DEGREES.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA ACCROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER 570DM THU/FRI
INTO SAT. H85 TEMPS +8C TO +10C BY THAT TIME SUGGEST TEMPS AWAY FM
LAKE MODERATION SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 50S THU AND LIKELY WELL INTO
60S FRI/SAT. MAIN SFC LOW STAYS OUT OVER PLAINS THU/FRI/SAT WHILE
SFC RIDGE OVER QUEBEC RIDGES BACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. RESULT
IS S/SE SFC FLOW THAT MAY TEMPER WARMING A TOUCH OVER CNTRL AND
EASTERN CWA BUT THAT WOULD BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN. RIDGING
ALOFT HOLDS SO THAT THERE IS NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND WED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR...AGAIN...THOUGH TYPICALLY
WITH THIS TYPE OF WARM/DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER REGION...AFTN
DWPNTS/RH VALUES END UP LOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND IN TURN PROBABLY
ONLY LOOKING AT GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO RIVER/STREAM
LEVELS. ALL THE WHILE...AS SNOW BEGINS TO LEAVE AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN...ATTN WILL TURN TO FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ250-251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW AT H25 ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NW FLOW OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF
THE JET WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD ON MON WITH STRONGEST FORCING AND
SFC LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. WEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND NW WINDS AT
H85 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON MONDAY. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS OVER
WEST HALF OF CWA ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO H7. IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY
KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. THOUGH A FEW
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW MAY OCCUR THERE...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO INCREASE MON EVENING ALONG
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
SFC-H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN.
COLDEST AIR LAGS THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW MON NIGHT. COULD BE A QUICK FEW INCHES THOUGH IN THE EVENING AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BY TUE...STRONGEST JET CORE RIDES AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH RISING HEIGHTS SPREADING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERMAL TROUGH AT
H85 /-10C TO -11C/ STILL HAS TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS IN BLYR BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND EVENTUALLY SW IN THE AFTN
AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H5 /NEAR -30C/ HEADING NORTH AND EAST
OVER CANADA SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR TO A MINIMUM.
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY FOCUS A QUICK MOVING BATCH OF LGT SNOW INTO
MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT JET STREAK AND
H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS OWING TO THE DECENT H85 TEMP GRADIENT FM
EASTERN DAKOTAS TO LK SUPERIOR /+14C IN SD TO -6C OVER LK SUPERIOR/
WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE SNOW. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEGATIVES. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR WEST LATE TUE NIGHT. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON WED ACROSS THE
CWA. WARMER AIR AT SFC WORKS IN BY WED AFTN WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
PAST 40 DEGREES.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA ACCROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER 570DM THU/FRI
INTO SAT. H85 TEMPS +8C TO +10C BY THAT TIME SUGGEST TEMPS AWAY FM
LAKE MODERATION SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 50S THU AND LIKELY WELL INTO
60S FRI/SAT. MAIN SFC LOW STAYS OUT OVER PLAINS THU/FRI/SAT WHILE
SFC RIDGE OVER QUEBEC RIDGES BACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. RESULT
IS S/SE SFC FLOW THAT MAY TEMPER WARMING A TOUCH OVER CNTRL AND
EASTERN CWA BUT THAT WOULD BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN. RIDGING
ALOFT HOLDS SO THAT THERE IS NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND WED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR...AGAIN...THOUGH TYPICALLY
WITH THIS TYPE OF WARM/DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER REGION...AFTN
DWPNTS/RH VALUES END UP LOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND IN TURN PROBABLY
ONLY LOOKING AT GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO RIVER/STREAM
LEVELS. ALL THE WHILE...AS SNOW BEGINS TO LEAVE AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN...ATTN WILL TURN TO FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY CMX AND SAW.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AT SAW BY LATE
MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. SRLY FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR LOWER CIGS AT SAW WITH IFR PERSITING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL MORE LIKELY KEEP IWD/CMX IN THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ250-251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT
WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE
SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS
QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN.
THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE
FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN
CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL
RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE AVE.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW
PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST.
BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN
KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF
WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE
SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE
DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX
WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH
AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT
MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH OR HIGHER.
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F
TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH
THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND
OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z
WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH.
AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB
FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE
LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN
FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OPERATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT
700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN
THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE
OVERCAST SATURDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN
CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY
BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
THE RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING MAY
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH OF ALLIANCE. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH
WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K
INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE
BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE
30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS
IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S.
VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO
AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE
FREEZING.
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID
INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND
500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY.
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS
UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF
MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER.
THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K
INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING
TSTMS IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART EARLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SHOWERS
TONIGHT ARE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
222 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
ANOTHER ONE IS RIGHT ON IT HEALS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW LATE WEEK WILL USHER IN WINDS ON THURSDAY
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MOHAVE. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE
OVER NORTHEAST CLARK AND FAR NORTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTIES. MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA RIPE WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD MESQUITE/INTERSTATE 15 THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NYE, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. HRRR MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING.
MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES AT A STEADY CLIP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS IN RIGHT BEHIND. THIS LOW
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY BEFORE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BUT
MOST PLACES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING - MONDAY
EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPID
MONDAY NIGHT JUST LIKE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO
NORMAL TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NEVADA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, YET DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, IT IS NOT TYPICALLY A FAVORED PATH FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY THE TERRAIN FOR
THE BEST CHANCES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN A FEW VALLEYS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF TERMINAL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
SOME NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL START
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL.
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6K FEET. LIGHT EAST WIND WILL GO
DOWNVALLEY THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE, ICING AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
206 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ROUND AFTER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS HERE TO
STAY FOR THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RATHER DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER STARTING TO MOVE EAST. MODELS AGREE ON DEPICTING
THE LOW OPENING TO A BROAD WAVE BUT WRAPPING WEAK SPOKES AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT MOISTURE AMPLE. JUST WHEN A SHORT RIDGE
WOULD LIKE TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS...A PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST AND PUSHES IT OUT....GIVING US MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HENCE...POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE
OFF AND ON AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS. WIND FIELD IS WEAK AND
DISJOINTED WITH SURFACE WINDS WANTING TO REVERT TO DRAINAGE OR
WEAK SOUTHWEST AND WINDS ABOUT 10K FEET AGL FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS/SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE BE SLOW. BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY AS MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH COLD TROUGH
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THU-FRI.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WED, A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING INTO NORTHWEST
NV AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND 110+KT JET PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN CA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES FROM CENTRAL-EASTERN NV WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEST
OF THIS ZONE OF MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE, DRYING AND MORE STABLE AIR
MAY LIMIT CONVECTION INCLUDING I-80 FROM ELKO WESTWARD TO
WINNEMUCCA AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD AUSTIN WHERE GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN NV.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF NORTHEAST NV BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
THU-FRI. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT ALL VALLEY FLOORS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET FOR THE MOST PART DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT COULD ICE UP AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY PASSES ABOVE
5500 FEET AND ANYWHERE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE MUCH COLDER THU-FRI WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
EASE WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESKY UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH
IS DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE VCSH
WITH TEMPO -TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TAPERING OFF TO VCSH/-SHRA
OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPO -TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGEST STORMS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/87/98
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern California and Nevada today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. The coverage of showers wanes Monday and Tuesday as low
pressure moves out of the area. For mid to late week, a stronger
and colder system will bring breezy conditions with chances for
rain and snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Moist and unstable conditions remain over the region today as low
pressure lingers over southern NV. Moderate to heavy precipitation
occurred over much of the region in the last 36 hours, with many
locations reporting 0.25-1.0" of rainfall. In the High Sierra, a
few locations reported several inches of snow above the 8000 foot
level in the Sierra. This morning`s sounding again came in with
0.60" precipitable water (second day in a row) which puts today
in the 99th percentile for the atmospheric moisture for this time
of year.
Mostly clear skies north of Pyramid Lake this morning are allowing
for strong showers and thunderstorms to develop due to stronger
solar heating. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall
amounts and small hail, especially north of Pyramid Lake. Further
south over Reno-Carson-Tahoe, abundant cloud cover has limited
instability in the area, although shower activity is increasing
in the last couple of hours.
There were reports of a cold air funnel cloud between Fernley and
Hazen around 1pm, so moderate instability and a line of
convergence from Reno to Fernley may be helping to spin up weak
rotation. These types of funnel clouds are typically very short
lived and rarely touch ground, but in the unusual event of a
funnel cloud touching ground, people should move indoors and stay
away from windows. Also, these funnel clouds occur below the view
of our NWS Radar (on top of Virginia Peak), so we cannot see
these features on radar. Widespread showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are expected to last into the evening hours, then
begin to diminish after midnight with a few isolated light showers
remaining.
Low pressure will continue to slowly push out of the area Monday
and Tuesday with diminishing chances for showers each day. We
cannot rule out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm late
Monday afternoon as Lifted Indices remain around -2C mainly north
of Reno. Another area of low pressure pushes into the Pac NW
Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing winds and chances of
showers north of Susanville on Wednesday. Hoon
Long Term...Thursday through Sunday...
A cold upper level low will swing through the northern Sierra and
western Nevada on Thursday. Showers will spread south to near the
Tahoe basin by early Thursday morning. Snow levels will quickly drop
near 5,000 feet by early Thursday morning which should produce snow
showers through the Sierra with a mix of rain and snow possible down
to western Nevada valley floors through Thursday evening. Last
several model runs have been demonstrating better agreement in
showing a progressive and shorter duration type of system. Increased
winds are also expected with this system as the surface pressure
gradient enhances and winds aloft strengthen. At this time looking
at wind gusts up to around 40 mph. Confidence has been increasing
with this system but still overall a low-moderate category at this
time.
Temperatures will cool about 5-10 degrees below season averages
behind this system on Thursday and Friday. Highs will remain in the
mid to upper 50s across western Nevada and mid 40s for Sierra
Valleys. Drier and warmer conditions will then return as an upper
level ridge begins to intensify through the weekend. Fuentes
&&
.Aviation...
An upper level low will continue to provide areas of showers with
the possibility of isolated thunderstorms through early evening.
Currently the favored area to see isolated thunderstorms will exist
roughly north of Pyramid Lake. Mainly expect rain showers for
KRNO,KCXP,KTVL,KTRK through this evening with TSRA chances at these
terminals about 20%. Heavier showers will produce MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. Snow levels should remain generally above 8000
feet...but the heavier showers could drag these down to around 6500
feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. Fuentes/20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern California and Nevada today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. The coverage of showers wanes Monday and Tuesday as low
pressure moves out of the area. For mid to late week, a stronger
and colder system will bring breezy conditions with chances for
rain and snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Moist and unstable conditions remain over the region today as low
pressure lingers over southern NV. Moderate to heavy precipitation
occurred over much of the region in the last 36 hours, with many
locations reporting 0.25-1.0" of rainfall. In the High Sierra, a
few locations reported several inches of snow above the 8000 foot
level in the Sierra. This morning`s sounding again came in with
0.60" precipitable water (second day in a row) which puts today
in the 99th percentile for the atmospheric moisture for this time
of year.
Mostly clear skies north of Pyramid Lake this morning are allowing
for strong showers and thunderstorms to develop due to stronger
solar heating. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall
amounts and small hail, especially north of Pyramid Lake. Further
south over Reno-Carson-Tahoe, abundant cloud cover has limited
instability in the area, although shower activity is increasing
in the last couple of hours.
There were reports of a cold air funnel cloud between Fernley and
Hazen around 1pm, so moderate instability and a line of
convergence from Reno to Fernley may be helping to spin up weak
rotation. These types of funnel clouds are typically very short
lived and rarely touch ground, but in the unusual event of a
funnel cloud touching ground, people should move indoors and stay
away from windows. Also, these funnel clouds occur below the view
of our NWS Radar (on top of Virginia Peak), so we cannot see
these features on radar. Widespread showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are expected to last into the evening hours, then
begin to diminish after midnight with a few isolated light showers
remaining.
Low pressure will continue to slowly push out of the area Monday
and Tuesday with diminishing chances for showers each day. We
cannot rule out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm late
Monday afternoon as Lifted Indices remain around -2C mainly north
of Reno. Another area of low pressure pushes into the Pac NW
Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing winds and chances of
showers north of Susanville on Wednesday. Hoon
Long Term...Thursday through Sunday...
A cold upper level low will swing through the northern Sierra and
western Nevada on Thursday. Showers will spread south to near the
Tahoe basin by early Thursday morning. Snow levels will quickly drop
near 5,000 feet by early Thursday morning which should produce snow
showers through the Sierra with a mix of rain and snow possible down
to western Nevada valley floors through Thursday evening. Last
several model runs have been demonstrating better agreement in
showing a progressive and shorter duration type of system. Increased
winds are also expected with this system as the surface pressure
gradient enhances and winds aloft strengthen. At this time looking
at wind gusts up to around 40 mph. Confidence has been increasing
with this system but still overall a low-moderate category at this
time.
Temperatures will cool about 5-10 degrees below season averages
behind this system on Thursday and Friday. Highs will remain in the
mid to upper 50s across western Nevada and mid 40s for Sierra
Valleys. Drier and warmer conditions will then return as an upper
level ridge begins to intensify through the weekend. Fuentes
&&
.Aviation...
An upper level low will continue to provide areas of showers with
the possibility of isolated thunderstorms through early evening.
Currently the favored area to see isolated thunderstorms will exist
roughly north of Pyramid Lake. Mainly expect rain showers for
KRNO,KCXP,KTVL,KTRK through this evening with TSRA chances at these
terminals about 20%. Heavier showers will produce MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. Snow levels should remain generally above 8000
feet...but the heavier showers could drag these down to around 6500
feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. Fuentes/20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage for
this afternoon and evening mainly north of I-80. Latest HRRR is
showing a strong potential for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon north of Pyramid Lake with some heavier rainfall
amounts. This matches up well with the latest visible satellite
image that is showing clear skies over Lassen and Northern Washoe
Counties which will help to destabilize this afternoon with much
better solar heating that over the Reno-Carson-Tahoe area. The
stronger thunderstorms north of Reno will be capable of heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
Coverage of showers have diminished early this morning...but is
expected to increase again later today as heating and upper level
forcing combine to produce enough instability to drive showers and
a few thunderstorms. The upper low responsible for all of the
activity should drift east today from southern CA into AZ by later
tonight. This will lead to less instability for our area tonight
and Monday. For now...we will update to reduce coverage through
the morning hours then let coverage increase in the afternoon. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move over far southern California and Nevada today.
Moist wrap-around flow will bring some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to eastern California and western Nevada today.
Monday and Tuesday, the coverage of showers wanes as modest ridging
builds overhead. For mid to late week, a stronger and colder system
will bring breezy conditions with chances for rain and snow.
SHORT TERM...
A nice soaking rain was had since yesterday afternoon, with far
western Nevada and the Tahoe area hitting the jackpot with widespread
0.50" to 0.80" of precipitation. It was mainly rain below 7500-8000
feet around the region, although heavier precipitation did drag
down snow levels to between 6500 and 7000 feet for the Tahoe area
per spotter reports and CALTRANS cams (Echo Summit on Highway 50
was briefly slushy Saturday evening). Outside of the Reno-Tahoe
area, precip amounts were on the order of 0.20" to 0.40", tapering
to less than a tenth in central and southern Mono and Mineral
Counties.
This morning, precip coverage has dropped off to mainly isolated
light showers. For this afternoon through Monday, convective
coverage will be on the decline as upper forcing wanes and
convective development relies increasingly on residual moisture
and diurnal heating. Afternoon temperatures look to top out near
or even slightly above average today and Monday.
For late Monday night and Tuesday, I have lowered POP and re-
aligned the shower chances to the far northern (Lassen-northern
Washoe Counties) and southern-eastern portions (Mono-Mineral-
eastern Pershing/Churchill Counties) of the region. The NAM and
GFS do show very light QPF and high 700 mb moisture for other
areas of western NV Tuesday afternoon but it looks like just some
cumulus development with no apparent large-scale forcing and only
modestly above average temperatures. Snyder
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Main changes made to the forecast this cycle were to increase pops
slightly Wednesday night into Thursday morning and make a few minor
adjustments to snow levels. Overall the deterministic models are a
little better with coming together on a broad pattern evolution...
but there are still disagreements in the details.
The GFS and most of its ensemble members are now more progressive
early in the extended period with moving a trough into the region by
Thursday...but the ECMWF remains faster and more progressive with
this feature. The GFS and most of its ensemble members start to
develop a closed low by Friday morning while the ECMWF moves the
trough east and starts to build the ridge. These differences
continue to lead to a low confidence forecast regarding the details
in the extended period. Pops were raised in the far western part of
the forecast area for Wednesday night in deference to the ECMWF
while snow levels were raised slightly Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
We could also be looking at breezy conditions developing ahead of
the long wave trough late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given that
it is mid April the temperatures were allowed to rise a bit for
Thursday and Friday even with a cold upper low over the region.
Heavy showers could drag snow levels briefly below 5000 feet on
Thursday...but the cessation of showers and a lack of completely
overcast skies would allow snow levels to rise again and
temperatures to rebound quickly.
With a ridge starting to build by Friday afternoon/evening...
Saturday temperatures were also raised a few degrees. 20
Aviation...
Showers should redevelop today over the region as heating increases
and a weak upper level deformation area associated with an upper low
over southern CA provides increased forcing. Instability may
increase enough by this afternoon for a few thunderstorms as well.
At this point it remains difficult to pinpoint the areas where the
more concentrated heavier showers will develop...but in the heavier
showers cigs/vsbys should drop to MVFR/IFR. Snow levels should
remain generally above 8000 feet...but the heavier showers could
drag these down to around 6500 feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
203 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY CHANGES TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST WERE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADDED SOME SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MINOT AREA. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 4 PM CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL SITES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH 4 PM. GUST
POTENTIAL DROPS AFTER THIS. AREAS OF THE NORMALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST
SHOW EVEN LESS GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY.
LARGE AREA OF LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY VFR. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-019>023-025-034>037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL SITES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH 4 PM. GUST
POTENTIAL DROPS AFTER THIS. AREAS OF THE NORMALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST
SHOW EVEN LESS GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY.
LARGE AREA OF LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY VFR. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-019>023-025-034>037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT 6 AM
CDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN
KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO
BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING. WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING
GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT 6 AM
CDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN
KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO
BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING. WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING
GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
402 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER WAS NEAR
WINNIPEG...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF
LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER WAS NEAR
WINNIPEG...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF
LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM DETROIT TO
CLEVELAND TO CANTON. TOLEDO BRIEFLY REPORTED A MIX BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION EXITED TO THE NORTH. THE BRIGHT BANDING HAS BEEN
DISAPPEARING FROM THE RADAR AND SUSPECT AT THIS POINT THAT MOST
PLACES WILL JUST SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES LATER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM
TODAY BUT SHOULD SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
OHIO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFT 20Z. WARM SECTOR SHOULD CREATE
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BASES
5-6KFT. PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ALREADY FORMING TO THE WEST. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS AROUND 00Z AND SPREAD OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY 04Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 12Z IN THE WEST AND AFTER 18Z IN THE
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND STEADILY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1247 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM DETROIT TO
CLEVELAND TO CANTON. TOLEDO BRIEFLY REPORTED A MIX BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION EXITED TO THE NORTH. THE BRIGHT BANDING HAS BEEN
DISAPPEARING FROM THE RADAR AND SUSPECT AT THIS POINT THAT MOST
PLACES WILL JUST SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES LATER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM
TODAY BUT SHOULD SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
OHIO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE 850-700MB FRONT. SOME OF THIS
IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. A
FEW HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE SHOWING UP ON THE KIWX RADAR
AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SURGING NORTH AND CAUSING MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR ANY MIX IS EXPECTED TO BE
SMALL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW
TO RAIN. LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. RADAR
SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON TIME. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS THAN EARLIER...IT IS STILL
VERY LIGHT. AT THIS TIME PRECIP IS STILL ALL SNOW TO OUR WEST BUT
AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT WE COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE TO ZR
BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST RAIN.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. RADAR
SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON TIME. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS THAN EARLIER...IT IS STILL
VERY LIGHT. AT THIS TIME PRECIP IS STILL ALL SNOW TO OUR WEST BUT
AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT WE COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE TO ZR
BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST RAIN.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BR POSSIBLE AT INLAND SITES BEFORE DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY AND LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF PRECIP
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION FOR
TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PL/SLEET...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR OF NW PA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...NO BETTER CONFIDENCE
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN HOW THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL
TURN OUT. RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING
THE EVENING. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
BY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER NIGHTFALL.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HOWEVER WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT THIS TIME RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST HOWEVER BELIEVE
LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS 080-10KFT IN THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM
GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS
OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BR POSSIBLE AT INLAND SITES BEFORE DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY AND LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF PRECIP
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION FOR
TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PL/SLEET...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR OF NW PA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...NO BETTER CONFIDENCE
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN HOW THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL
TURN OUT. RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING
THE EVENING. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
BY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER NIGHTFALL.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from
eastern KS into the OK panhandle...with dryline into northwestern
OK southward into the TX panhandle. Some convection has fired near
the dryline across the TX panhandle over the past 1-2 hours...and
latest HRRR output suggests that some of this activity will make a
run east toward our forecast area during the evening hours. Also
anticipating an increase in convection along the front across
southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and
backs. While the southern activity may have a tendency to weaken
with time as it tracks east...clusters of storms associated with
the front will impact parts of northeast OK and eventually
northwest AR later tonight...with large hail/strong winds/heavy
rainfall being the main threat.
With the approach of a triple-point low...the severe weather
threat will transition into southeast OK/western AR Monday
afternoon. At least modest afternoon heating will mixed-layer CAPE
values around 2000-3000 J/kg in the smallish warm sector...and any
backed low-level flow ahead of triple-point will enhance the
tornado threat. This activity will shift east with time...with the
severe threat diminishing toward midnight.
Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid-
week...although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of
the better moisture south of the forecast area.
A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend...with
shower/thunderstorm chances increasing especially in the latter
half of the weekend. The extended models are still struggling with
how this system evolves/ejects east...so will continue to keep
pops in the chance category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 69 40 65 / 90 60 10 0
FSM 64 76 46 66 / 30 80 60 0
MLC 66 72 47 67 / 50 60 20 0
BVO 56 64 36 64 / 90 60 10 0
FYV 60 66 40 61 / 70 80 50 0
BYV 59 62 38 61 / 80 80 50 0
MKO 63 70 41 65 / 70 70 20 0
MIO 57 63 37 62 / 90 80 20 0
F10 63 70 43 65 / 60 60 10 0
HHW 65 76 51 67 / 30 60 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
857 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT
SHOWERS ARE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFIED RAIN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE TAKING THIS AREA OF RAIN
EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND SHOW THE AREA TO BE QUITE EXTENSIVE ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. THE BAND OF RAIN WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS SHOWERS
ACROSS KLAMATH LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MORNING. MODOC
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY COULD SEE SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST NAM12 IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING. WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN THURSDAY. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT RAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...AND THE OREGON CASCADES AND
POINTS EASTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM THE
COAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH
LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 745 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS
TO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ANY OREGON WEST SIDE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE WILL GENERALLY BY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES. EAST SIDE TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL END. WE`RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MUCH WARMER SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS RISE TO 12-13C ON
SATURDAY, THEN JUMP TO 15-16C ON SUNDAY. SO, BY SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM,
EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO BE A BIT FAST. THUS, HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW A WEAKER, SLOWER SHORTWAVE
AND A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. SPILDE
AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...AND THE OREGON CASCADES AND
POINTS EASTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM
THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH
LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SK
MARINE...UPDATED 145 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS TO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
FJB/MAS/NSK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
444 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ANY OREGON WEST SIDE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE WILL GENERALLY BY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES. EAST SIDE TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL END. WE`RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MUCH WARMER SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS RISE TO 12-13C ON
SATURDAY, THEN JUMP TO 15-16C ON SUNDAY. SO, BY SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM,
EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO BE A BIT FAST. THUS, HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW A WEAKER, SLOWER SHORTWAVE
AND A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...AND THE OREGON CASCADES AND
POINTS EASTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM
THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH
LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 145 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS TO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/18/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1141 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NW PA.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN PRECEDING THE FRONT OVR
NW PA...ALONG AXIS OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. 21Z SREF
STILL SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PA...AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE AND BEST LG SCALE FORCING LIFT NORTH OF PA.
SUPERBLEND QPF WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM LATEST HRRR SUGGEST UP TO
ANOTHER 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-06Z OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHILE ONLY ARND 0.1 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED MY SERN
ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS
BY DAWN AND TO AROUND 50 OVER LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY 12Z. MDL
RH FIELDS POINT TOWARD A MSUNNY LATE AM AND AFTN ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL PA...COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF CU...SO PTSUNNY SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS NOT SO STRONG NOW.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
03Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CIGS STILL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 7 PM.
FOR TUE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY...AS SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NW PA.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN PRECEDING THE FRONT OVR
NW PA...ALONG AXIS OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. 21Z SREF
STILL SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT PRE-
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PA...AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE AND BEST LG SCALE FORCING LIFT NORTH OF PA.
SUPERBLEND QPF WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM LATEST HRRR SUGGEST UP TO
ANOTHER 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-06Z OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHILE ONLY ARND 0.1 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED MY SERN
ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS
BY DAWN AND TO AROUND 50 OVER LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY 12Z. MDL
RH FIELDS POINT TOWARD A MSUNNY LATE AM AND AFTN ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL PA...COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF CU...SO PTSUNNY SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
CIGS STILL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 7 PM.
MINOR CHANGES MADE.
FOR TUE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY...AS SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF KERI. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN PRECEDING THE FRONT OVR NW PA...ALONG
AXIS OF LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS. NEAR TERM MDL DATA AND
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT STILL SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PA...AS PARENT SHORTWAVE AND BEST LG SCALE
FORCING LIFT NORTH OF PA.
SUPERBLEND QPF WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM LATEST HRRR SUGGEST UP TO
ANOTHER 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BTWN 00Z-06Z OVR THE NW MTNS...WHILE
ONLY ARND 0.1 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED MY SERN ZONES...OR
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS
BY DAWN AND TO AROUND 50 OVER LANCASTER CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY 12Z. MDL
RH FIELDS POINT TOWARD A MSUNNY LATE AM AND AFTN ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL PA...COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE A FAIR AMT OF CU...SO PTSUNNY SHOULD SUFFICE THERE.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
CIGS STILL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 7 PM.
MINOR CHANGES MADE.
FOR TUE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY...AS SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA
INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF
ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE
SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED
MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1"
OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAFS SENT.
CIGS STILL VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 7 PM.
MINOR CHANGES MADE.
FOR TUE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY...AS SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEB CAMS CONFIRMING THE LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND LATE
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS. RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY ARND 23Z...LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN/POTTER COUNTIES.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY
00Z AS 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO UPSTATE NY...RESULTING IN A
DRY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER
TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS
THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SUNSHINE FADING OVER
MY EASTERN ZONES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION TRACKS
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NERN US.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IF IT DOES COME AS SNOW...ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT
TO NON EXISTENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE LLJ HELPS PUSH A SURGE IN THE MOISTURE. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS
RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SUNSHINE FADING OVER
MY EASTERN ZONES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION TRACKS
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NERN US.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IF IT DOES COME AS SNOW...ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT
TO NON EXISTENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE LLJ HELPS PUSH A SURGE IN THE MOISTURE. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS
RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS A CFRONT THROUGH PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE
ALONG IT ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS AS 00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR
TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES...
CARVES OUT A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS
THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED FROM LATER TODAY
RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SUNSHINE WE ARE ENJOYING
NOW WILL BE A MEMORY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF
IS SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES. MAX
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM
THE NW MTNS TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE. THE 12/00Z GEFS RUNS SHOW ONE TO TWO SD PWAT ANOMALIES
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION 06Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THAT BOUNDARY
ARE HOW MUCH QPF AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WITH TEMPS VERY BORDERLINE FROM
THE SFC UP THROUGH 6 KFT AGL.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED QPFS BUT REMAIN
LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. SO GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L-M 30S ALONG THE NEW YORK
BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS A CFRONT THROUGH PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE
ALONG IT ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS AS 00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR
TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES...
CARVES OUT A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS
THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/MIX OVER THE NW 1/4 OF
THE AIRSPACE AROUND OR AFTER 21Z.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 00-12Z AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...ONLY TWO MAIN CHANGES. FIRST WAS TO INCLUDE FOG
OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...PATCHY WESTERN BRUSH AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS WELL AS COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG MOST INLAND AREAS. GFE
FORECAST MONITOR MAINLY IN THE GREEN SO TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
SEEM OK FOR NOW. SECOND CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND EXPECTED STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH RAIN CHANCES
LOOKING PROMISING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
ARE OUT. MARINE FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECAST...SO DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGES THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS
BEFORE 12/06Z...AND LIKELY IFR AT KVCT WITH MVFR BR. CONDITIONS
THEN GO TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS FALLING TO BLO 1SM (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AT KALI AND KVCT AOB 12/08Z WITH BOUNDARY
APPROACHING AND 925 MB WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS. MAY HAVE TEMPO IFR BR
AT KCRP BEFORE 14Z TOO. AT KLRD...GENERALLY NE/ENE WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND THUS AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 12/06Z BUT BFR 12/12Z WITH MVFR BR TOO. CIGS IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR AFTER 15Z (MAYBE A BIT LATER AT KVCT IF FOG IS VERY
BAD). CIGS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR AT KVCT AND KCRP...BUT VFR AOA 12/18Z
AT KALI AND KLRD. DID MENTION VCSH AT EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH
VCTS AND PROB30 TSRA AT KLRD MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
WINDS START OFF NORTHEAST BUT LIKELY BECOMING MORE ENE DURING THE
DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 80 69 78 65 / 10 20 60 60 10
VICTORIA 67 80 65 75 60 / 10 20 60 70 10
LAREDO 71 85 69 83 64 / 10 30 60 30 10
ALICE 67 83 69 79 63 / 10 20 60 60 10
ROCKPORT 70 77 69 76 65 / 10 20 60 70 20
COTULLA 66 80 65 79 60 / 10 30 60 50 10
KINGSVILLE 69 83 69 80 64 / 10 20 60 60 10
NAVY CORPUS 71 76 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 60 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS
BEFORE 12/06Z...AND LIKELY IFR AT KVCT WITH MVFR BR. CONDITIONS
THEN GO TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS FALLING TO BLO 1SM (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AT KALI AND KVCT AOB 12/08Z WITH BOUNDARY
APPROACHING AND 925 MB WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS. MAY HAVE TEMPO IFR BR
AT KCRP BEFORE 14Z TOO. AT KLRD...GENERALLY NE/ENE WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND THUS AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 12/06Z BUT BFR 12/12Z WITH MVFR BR TOO. CIGS IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR AFTER 15Z (MAYBE A BIT LATER AT KVCT IF FOG IS VERY
BAD). CIGS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR AT KVCT AND KCRP...BUT VFR AOA 12/18Z
AT KALI AND KLRD. DID MENTION VCSH AT EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH
VCTS AND PROB30 TSRA AT KLRD MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
WINDS START OFF NORTHEAST BUT LIKELY BECOMING MORE ENE DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 80 69 78 65 / 10 20 60 60 10
VICTORIA 67 80 65 75 60 / 10 20 60 70 10
LAREDO 71 85 69 83 64 / 10 30 60 30 10
ALICE 67 83 69 79 63 / 10 20 60 60 10
ROCKPORT 70 77 69 76 65 / 10 20 60 70 20
COTULLA 66 80 65 79 60 / 10 30 60 50 10
KINGSVILLE 69 83 69 80 64 / 10 20 60 60 10
NAVY CORPUS 71 76 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 60 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50
ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 60 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP AS OF THIS TAF
ITERATION...BUT HIGH CIRRUS IS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE
THE LOW CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE. TOMORROW...BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
AND BROKEN SKIES WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY MORE
MVFR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND CLOUD
DECKS LOWERING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION AND MARINE
DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWERING AND THICKENING THE CLOUD
DECKS TONIGHT...DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL RECOVER TO MODERATE OR BREEZY BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTH TEXAS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER GRADIENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE...HOISTED SCA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HRRR SUPPORTS 20 KT
COVERAGE AT TIMES. SCA WILL BE LOW END MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT
ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLAG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...H5 LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DIFFLUENCE
WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS SWEEPING EWD THROUGH EAST TEXAS...WHILE
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE THICK LOW CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SFC FOG FROM THICKENING. THE CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP THIN OUT THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS...REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S OUT WEST. NEXT PIECE OF THE H5 LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE EDGE OF THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION...SIMILAR TO THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A COUPLE OF 500 MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEX FROM MON THROUGH WED. THE
PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
RGV LATE WED. THIS OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OR NORTHERN MEX THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON FRI AND SAT.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED WILL NOT BE MARKED BY
SIGNIFICANT CAA WITH A WARMER E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
PRETTY QUICKLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND REACHING
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7 AND WILL OPT FOR A
GENERAL 50/50 MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL NOT BE
VERY DEEP BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME LOW
END POPS AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE WEAK FROPA. EXPECT MAINLY CLD
COVER TO BE THE ISSUE WITH THIS MOISTURE.
RUN TO RUN CONSITENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE
PRETTY STABLE AND MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF IS PRETTY GOOD ALSO. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...REMAINING ABOVE 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MIXING OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BRING PART OF THE LLVL JET
TO THE SFC TONIGHT...PUSHING WINDS TO NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED...RUNNING
5 FEET OR GREATER THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD OF THE MARINE FORECAST AS A MODERATE E TO
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE REGION ON WED. AM NOT SURE IF SCAS WILL BE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. SCEC WORDING MAY BE MORE LIKELY FOR LATE WED.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF KRST...AND IS ON SCHEDULE
TO MOVE EAST OF KLSE AROUND 19Z. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND IT FOR GOOD VFR CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AT SITES LIKE KRST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-12KTS CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DIURNAL WARMING AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT TO MAKE SOME STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING TO 850-800MB FOR THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS OF MON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G23-28KT
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z MON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...MAKING
PASSAGE AT KRST AROUND 18Z AND KLSE BY 19Z. COULD SEE A SHRA OR
TWO AT KLSE IN THE 15-19Z TIMEFRAME WITH KRST EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE STILL POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS TO KLSE JUST IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TO BE HONEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 4KFT DOES
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LOWER STUFF MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN MAYBE A SPRINKLE THROUGH SUNRISE AT
KLSE...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER TOWARD
MIDDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. KRST LOOKS TO STAY DRY. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND GUST 20-25 KNOTS...WITH
LINGERING THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEPARTING TOWARD SUNSET AS WINDS
START TO SETTLE DOWN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS....TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CLOUDY ONE WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WAS SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH IS SLIDING A BOUNDARY
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FRONT MAY PUSH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRATUS CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MAY ALSO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE COASTAL DRIZZLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAM
INTERACTING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GULF OF ALASKA LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPINNING OFF A SECONDARY LOW WHICH WILL ENTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...SLIDING
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA...PROVIDING
US WITH A WARM UP AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS SCENARIO WELL AND NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:53 PM PDT MONDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOWER LEVEL COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDING S-SE OVER THE AREA INTERACTING WITH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL
MOIST AIR. THE 00Z NAM MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTING DECENT
925 MB LEVEL COOLING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5
CELSIUS AREA-WIDE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE SPRINKLES OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. AT THE 850 MB LEVEL AND HIGHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FEATURES A WEAK RIDGE OVER NORCAL. PARTIAL CLEARING RETURNS TUESDAY
WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MOVING BACK TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY EVENING PER THE LATEST WRF MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER HUMIDITY FORECAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SW-W TONIGHT BECOMING W WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. VFR/MVFR PERSISTS
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TUE MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A SPRINKLE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PDT MONDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW THEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING THIS WEEK. AN
ENERGETIC NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 4 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
942 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.Synopsis...
Scattered showers are possible across the mountains and northern
Sacramento Valley through early Wednesday. A colder system will
bring rain and snow to the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.Discussion...
Scattered showers are continuing along the northern coastal range
with isolated showers from around Blue Canyon northward over the
Sierra Nevada. The HRRR model indicates showers continuing in the
same general areas overnight other than some showers spreading
over a greater portion of Shasta County.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
continue to provide enough moisture and instability to bring some
showers to all the mountain areas and the north end of the
valley.
A colder low pressure system will begin to move into the northern
end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall below
major pass levels with this system and result in travel impacts.
Snow levels should fall on Thursday to between 4000 to 5000 feet.
The NAM this evening has lower precipitation amounts than the
earlier model run with around a tenth of an inch around Sacramento
up to a half an inch at Redding. The mountains also are indicating
less output with around a quarter inch at Blue Canyon to a half
inch over the northern mountains. Unstable air moving in Thursday
morning may generate some thunderstorms in the interior. the GFS
has slightly higher amounts for the valley with a quarter to an
inch of rainfall in the mountains.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Medium range models in general agreement in dropping closed upper
low from NV/UT into the Desert SW on Fri as the Ern Pac upper ridge
nears the W Coast. Nly flow aloft will prevail over Norcal with
lingering flurries possible over the Sierra Crest. These digging
systems create breezy/windy N to E winds over interior Norcal and
should continue into Sat as the ridge shifts inland and pressures
rise over the Pac NW/Great Basin. Winds slacken on Sun as the ridge
shifts over NorCal. Some modeling differences on Mon as the GFS
is faster in breaking down or shifting the ridge Ewd than the GEM/
ECMWF...and at this point...leaning toward the slower solutions.
Temps warm from near to slightly below normal on Fri to 10 to 18
degrees above normal Sat thru Mon with Sun/Mon the warmest days.
Max temps expected to climb well into the 80s in the Valley and
60s/70s in the foothill/mtns. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday across
Valley TAF sites. Local MVFR/IFR conditions continue in the
foothills and mountains with showers and fog through Tuesday.
Light south winds will remain below 10 kts across the Valley.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
143 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
WEST THIS MORNING SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN MOISTURE UP INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA WHILE THE NORTHERN
BRANCH IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO OR/WA AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR BEGINS CONVECTION AROUND 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM/GFS KEEP ACTIVITY MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 9500-10000 FT SO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER TO 7500-8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW IS DRIVEN ONSHORE. AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS/NAM AT ODDS WITH
TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS DRIVES LOW INTO GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE NAM PUTS IT RIGHT OVER EAST IDAHO. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON THE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING LOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE GFS APPEARS
TO DIG THE LOW SE THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NRN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF DRIVES THE LOW EAST INTO NRN IDAHO
THURSDAY WHILE SECONDARY FOLLOW-ON ENERGY CARVES OUT A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER NRN ARIZONA WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER CNTRL
MONTANA. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF DRIVES THE ARIZONA LOW CENTER INTO
NE NEW MEXICO AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW STATES WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS THE LOW CAMPED OUT OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE STILL IMPACTING THE ERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY
LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD...THE GFS A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN EVENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE
RESULTING SOLUTIONS EITHER SPELL SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS OR
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT STOP THERE...BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SEND A PAC TROUGH EWRD
OVER THE RIDGE BUT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
OVER IDAHO WITH ATTENDING WIND AND SHOWERS WHEREAS THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WAVE EAST THROUGH CANADA LEAVING SE IDAHO DRY AND WARM. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THIS UNTIL THE MODELS FIND A
COMMON SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&
.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST
AND NUMERICAL MODELS DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON FORCING CONVECTION IN
THAT REGION WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A
PASSING VORT FEATURE TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS. VCTY TSTMS ARE A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH VFR BKN CIGS. MIGHT SEE MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS IF A
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL AND WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MODEL TIME-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE SE
HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 14Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 03Z AS THE NIGHT TIME
INVERSION DEVELOPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated to issue a dense fog advisory...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Light winds early this morning will increase into the 10 to 15
knot range by mid day as a trough of low pressure at the surface
develops across eastern Colorado. A weak up slope flow combined
with the recent rainfall may give rise to some early morning
fog/stratus near and west of the GCK area. At this time RAP and
HRRR suggests the ceilings and visibilities at GCK early this
morning may briefly fall back into the MVFR category between 11z
and 13z Tuesday. Elsewhere VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043>045-
063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-065-
066.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CWA HAS
FINALLY GONE MSUNNY/SUNNY...WITH ONLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE STILL
RUNNING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THAT SITS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTHWARD FUNNELING MOISTURE ON ITS RETURN FLOW...MAINLY INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. WHERE ZONES HAVE GONE MORE TO THE SUNNY
SIDE..TEMPS HAVE REACHED NEAR FORECASTED NUMBERS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. THOSE LOCALES SEEING MCLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ARE ONLY
IN THE MID 40S AT BEST BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO WANE.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE
SOUTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH EVENTUALLY A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING GOING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND FIELD
TO SHIFT FROM A MORE SSE REGIME TO MORE OF A SSW ONE...ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ENSUE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. AREAS ACROSS NE COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVE WAY TOWARDS
PCLDY CONDITIONS BY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. NO PRECIP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR TEMPS...CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BUT FOR MAINLY AREAS STILL AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70F. WITH GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND THE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE...EXPECTING WINDS TO BEGIN
HITTING THE 15-25 MPH RANGE AROUND 14Z-15Z...AND PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SKIES CLEAR BY SUNRISE AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 14Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN BY 03Z AS THE NIGHT TIME
INVERSION DEVELOPS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
At 00z Tuesday a 500 mb low was located over Baja California.
Further east across the central and southern Plains there was a
weaker upper level trough extended from eastern Kansas to
southwest Oklahoma. A west to northwest flow was evident at the
700 mb and 500 mb level over the Central and Northern Rockies. At
the surface earlier this evening an area of high pressure was
located across southwest and south central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Just what the doctor ordered. Widespread beneficial rainfall was
greeted across most of SW KS this morning. Much of the area
reported measurable rainfall, with the noted exception of the NE
zones. The rainfall winners were, far and away, Haskell and
Seward counties, where radar estimates near 4 inches have fallen
south of Sublette along U.S. Highway 83. An areal flood warning
was hoisted in this area, where deformation forcing axis continues
to pivot and slowly shrink. All rain will end by mid afternoon,
followed by rapid clearing from north to south this evening, as
surface high pressure ridge axis builds into SW KS. Expecting
strong radiational cooling tonight as sky clears and winds go
light and variable. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be
several degrees below normal, in the low to mid 30s. Eastern
counties will observe the coolest temperatures, at or just below
freezing for several hours, under the ridge axis near sunrise.
Today`s rainfall has added lots of moisture into the boundary
layer, making areas of frost and/or fog likely. Mentioned both
frost/fog in the grids. Return flow and south winds will help to
keep temperatures above freezing tonight across western zones.
Maintained the frost/freeze headlines as inherited.
Tuesday...Mostly sunny, dry, breezy and warmer. Return southerly
flow will be well established by mid morning, with south winds
averaging 15-25 mph. Afternoon temperatures not too far from
mid-April normals in the mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
...The potential is increasing for a widespread heavy rain event
across SW KS this weekend....
Wednesday...Mostly sunny and much warmer. Southern stream
shortwave passes SE of SW KS, with no impacts expected. Broad
ridging from the Desert SW will deliver highs in the mid 70s
with breezy south winds.
Thursday...The warmest day of the forecast period. Still dry, as
forcing for precipitation remains well west. Quite windy Thursday
afternoon, in response to strong leeside cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado. SE winds of 20-30 mph will be common with gusts near
45 mph. Lack of a SW`ly downslope component will keep afternoon
temperatures capped in the upper 70s to near 80.
Friday...Synoptic pattern becomes very blocky, with all models
unanimously depicting a strong omega block over North America.
This portends very well for a dry SW KS, as the strong closed low
near the Four Corners Friday afternoon will only very slowly inch
out toward SW KS over the upcoming weekend. As the upper trough
approaches and the upper high over the Great Lakes doesn`t budge,
moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will be well
established, strong and persistent. With slow synoptic movement,
several rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms are likely as various
vorticity maxima rotate through the southern plains. The first
round of scattered thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon and
evening, as the dryline activates. Although details are impossible
to determine this far out, all medium range models suggest severe
convection is possible Friday afternoon. Given the downstream
block, and the preference to the slower solutions, strongest jet
support will likely remain west of SW KS Friday. For this reason,
kept pops in the scattered (<50%) category.
Saturday and Sunday...Confidence is high SW KS will receive
several rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms, with significant
rainfall amounts likely. Although exact storm track and mesoscale
evolution will determine rain amounts, forecaster confidence is
high on rainfall occurring, and CR_init pop grids are in the
likely category even this far out. Temperatures will show a
cooling trend with clouds and rain. Initial estimate is primary
severe threat this weekend will be south and west of SW KS, but
this is preliminary, and this potential will be monitored
carefully through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Light winds early this morning will increase into the 10 to 15
knot range by mid day as a trough of low pressure at the surface
develops across eastern Colorado. A weak up slope flow combined
with the recent rainfall may give rise to some early morning
fog/stratus near and west of the GCK area. At this time RAP and
HRRR suggests the ceilings and visibilities at GCK early this
morning may briefly fall back into the MVFR category between 11z
and 13z Tuesday. Elsewhere VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 63 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 34 64 38 75 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 36 64 42 74 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 35 65 41 75 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 31 65 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 64 40 71 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-
043>045-063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
416 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY SENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN AND WIND THE MAIN ITEMS FOR THIS TERM.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE W/THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STILL WELL BACK INTO QUEBEC.
RAIN HAS FILLED BACK IN OVER THE LAST 3 HRS W/SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS PER THE RADAR LOOP.
WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY W/PERIODS OF HEAVIER
BANDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT MOVING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NYS MOVING NE. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL UNDER THIS
ENHANCEMENT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 MODEL WERE
HANDLING THINGS WELL ATTM. STILL LOOKING FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND POSSIBLE ICE MOVEMENT. MILDER TEMPS IN THE
40S AND 50S WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT ICE MOVEMENT. MORE
ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER
ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION, ESPECIALLY THE
COAST. A LVL JET OF 55 KTS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL TO 45-50 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY
WASHINGTON COUNTY. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 C/KM COULD
ALLOW FROM STRONG WINDS. KEPT THE ADVISORY UP THROUGH 12 PM FOR
THE COAST. LESS WIND AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH TODAY.
TURNING COLDER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOWERS COME TO AN. DECIDED TO BACK AWAY FROM RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E BY THE LATE EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH AND WEST WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY STANDING
WATER WILL RE-FREEZE LATER TONIGHT. BLACK ICE IS A POSSIBILITY BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A STRONG 500H RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
TROUGH MAY BRING SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES WED NIGHT INTO
THU, BUT NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRES CENTERED IN
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z WED SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER BY 00Z FRI. A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WED MORNING WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE SEASONABLE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE GREATER BANGOR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR MANY, A MUCH AWAITED TASTE OF SPRING. A STRONG 500H RIDGE WITH
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580 DAM BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE WARMS AT ALL LEVELS FRI INTO SAT, AND SAT WILL LIKELY BE
THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH MANY INLAND AREAS TO GET
ABOVE 60 DEGREES SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG AND
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS COOLED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW ELECTED IN
COLLABORATION WITH WFO GRAY TO LEAVE THE DAY SHIFTS HIGH TEMPS
ALONE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
DROPS INTO NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY WITH A SHARPLY COOLER AIR MASS.
IT LIKELY REMAINS VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. TWEAKS THE DEW POINTS TO GO LOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND THAT
THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH WITH THE DEW POINTS IN THE SPRING
PRIOR TO GREEN-UP.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR TODAY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE AFTER W/THE
COLD FROPA. LLWS IS A THREAT FOR THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY FOR KBHB.
VFR FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT W/SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING W/THE
LLVL JET MENTIONED ABOVE. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF BELOW SCA BY
LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SEAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON W/THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWING 10-12 FT
AT THE PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SWELL COMPONENT IS EXPECTED
W/A PERIOD OF 10-11 SECONDS. THE SCA COULD BE TRANSITIONED TO
HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SEAS WILL STAY UP AROUND 6 FT
OR SO W/THAT SWELL INTO LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WED THROUGH FRI.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM AND DRY AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THE DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN THE SFC WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PCT LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
LOW RH`S WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
THE WIND REGIME DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT IT MAY GET A
LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A
FOOT OF SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ST. JOHN BASIN IF NOT MORE.
THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK AIDING IN FURTHER RUNOFF AND INCREASING
THE FLOWS, COULD ICE JAMS THAT EXIST UP ON THE ST. JOHN IN THE
VICINITY OF ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN TO DISLODGE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM.
IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THAT DESPITE THE COOLDOWN, RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK LEADING TO
INCREASED RIVER FLOWS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...HEWITT/CB
MARINE...HEWITT/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS THE TROUGH AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH WITH VFR VSBY PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MVFR
THRESHOLD INTO MID MORNING AT CMX AND IWD. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO SAW
WILL MORE LIKELY SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL
WINDS VEER TO THE SE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY AND DWPTS. DWPTS ARE
VERY LOW E OF HWY 281. CURRENT OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THE RAP MODEL
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE RAP HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW DWPTS.
THERE IS A PATCH OF ALTOCU W OF HWY 183 AND IT HAS RESULTED IN
QUITE A DISPARITY IN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT...
ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME...A RIDGE WAS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY
12Z/WED. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE OVER ALBERTA/SASK. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU 00Z-06Z TONIGHT BUT WITH NO NOTICEABLE WX.
SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE MID/UPR MS VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL
MIGRATE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z AND THEN INTO THE ERN USA/CANADA
BY 12Z/WED. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS HERE ON THE PLAINS TODAY. THE
POLAR FRONT THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUNDAY WAS BANKED UP AGAINST THE
ROCKIES. THE PORTION MT/WY WILL MOVE E INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WARM
FRONT.
TODAY: SUNNY WITH A FEW ALTOCU POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. YOU CAN
PROBABLY ADD 10F TO YESTERDAY`S TEMPS. BECOMING WINDY W OF FROM
THE TRI-CITIES N AND W WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER TO THE S AND E.
TONIGHT: M/CLEAR.
MORE LATER...
.MID TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SUMMARIZING THIS 48-HOUR "MID TERM" PERIOD:
IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE`RE SAYING THIS AS DRY AS IT`S BEEN
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...BUT FOR FOLKS WANTING TO GET OUTDOOR
WORK/PROJECTS DONE WITHOUT A THREAT OF RAIN THEN YOU PROBABLY
SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDING WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT LOOMS WHAT APPEARS TO BE BY FAR OUR BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SOAKING PRECIPITATION THAT WE
HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING (SEE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
THIS). IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME STILL
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY "GUARANTEED" DRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP
WELL-ABOVE FREEZING. OF COURSE...WE`VE HEARD PLENTY OF
"COMPLAINTS" LATELY ABOUT THE WIND...AND UNFORTUNATELY WEDNESDAY
HAS TRENDED A BIT BREEZIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS SOLIDLY BREEZY-TO-WINDY OUT OF THE SOUTH. FORTUNATELY
THOUGH...IN A NICE CHANGE FROM RECENT/ONGOING CONDITIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE "JUST"
ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ABOVE 25
PERCENT BOTH WED/THURS AND THUS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
EVEN REACHING "NEAR-CRITICAL" CRITERIA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE
ARE NO ELEMENTS WORTHY OF INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID) DURING THESE MID-TERM PERIODS.
NOW GOING OVER EACH OF THESE 4 FORECAST PERIODS IN MORE DETAIL:
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: VERY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AS WE SIT IN A
PRONOUNCED MINIMUM IN UPPER FORCING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
JET BRANCHES. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO OUR WEST
IN THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA SHOULDN`T BE A FACTOR LOCALLY AT ALL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE. THANKS LARGELY TO
THESE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY BREEZES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD UP 5-10
DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT AND SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE HERE...AIMING LOWS 38-40 MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: FOR THOSE MONITORING WIND FORECASTS
CLOSELY...PLEASE NOTE THAT SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WERE RAISED ROUGHLY 5
MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND POSSIBLY NOT QUITE ENOUGH. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BROAD
RIDGING/WEAK FLOW ALOFT THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE...THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO
AVERAGE SUSTAINED VALUES GENERALLY 14-18 MPH/GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO HIGH
TEMPS...STILL EXPECTING A ROUGHLY 10 DEGREE RISE VERSUS TUESDAY
WITH MOST PLACES ATTAINING THE 73-77 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IT REMAINS DRY AS ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN WELL-OUTSIDE THE CWA. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...SOUTH BREEZES WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...BUT
THANKS TO A WARMER PRECEDING DAY AND SLOWLY-INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOW TEMPS WILL JUMP UP ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES VERSUS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...HOLDING UP GENERALLY 47-50.
THURSDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A DRY
DAY...BUT CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME
MORE EVIDENT TO OUR WEST AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SETS UP SHOP OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THANKS TO STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS ALONG A HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
OUR FORECAST MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CALL FOR SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH/GUSTS 25-35 MPH. NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS
VERY SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...
AIMING FOR MAINLY A 76-79 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THIS SECTION FOCUSES ONLY ON THE "LONG TERM" PERIOD (DAYS 4-7) FOR
WHICH THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL
BLEND WITH ONLY LIMITED MODIFICATION BY THE FORECASTER:
SUMMARIZING THIS 4-DAY PERIOD:
OF COURSE...THE DETAILS OF AMOUNTS/TIMING ARE FAR...FAR FROM
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
THAT WE WILL BE ENTERING BY FAR THE MOST PRONOUNCED WETTER WEATHER
PATTERN OF THE SPRING SEASON SO FAR. LITERALLY EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS WELL IN LATER FORECASTS)
CARRIES AT LEAST MODEST...IF NOT DOWNRIGHT "LIKELY" (60 PERCENT OR
HIGHER) CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS A LARGE-SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STALLS OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH AND TO OUR EAST SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NOW ALL THIS BEING SAID...IT`S OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO BE
RAINING NON-STOP FOR 4+ DAYS...AND IT`S DICEY-AT-BEST TO TRY
PINPOINTING THE OVERALL-HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
GIVEN THAT SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE/MESOSCALE DETAILS
SUCH AS THE EXACT TIMING OF SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES "BREAKING
OFF" OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
ADDING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT THESE TYPES OF
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS OFTEN HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AS
THEY GET CLOSER...AND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT MAINLY ORIENTED SOUTH-
TO-NORTH (MERIDIONAL)...IT`S POSSIBLE (NOT FOR SURE) THAT THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY FRIDAY-SATURDAY) COULD
SEE MOST OF THE "ACTION" FOCUS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE SOLIDLY EAST OVER OUR CWA IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME.
VERY PRELIMINARILY...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60+ PERCENT
"LIKELY") ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE FRIDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE
DEFAULT LONG TERM MULTI-MODEL BLEND SHIFTS THESE CHANCES AROUND A
BIT IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BRIEFLY
COMMENTING ON TEMPERATURES: HIGHS ARE AIMED MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
THESE DAYS WITH LOWS WELL UP INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S RANGE. IN
OTHER WORDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOST DEFINITELY WON`T BE A
CONCERN.
WILL FINISH BY ADDRESSING A FEW QUESTIONS MANY FOLKS MIGHT HAVE
ABOUT THE NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES:
1) JUST HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE TALKING? AGAIN...IT`S FOOLISH TO BUY
INTO RAW MODEL QPF VALUES "VERBATIM" AT THIS JUNCTURE...BUT
OFFICIAL WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERAL RANGE OF AT LEAST 1-3" CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. AGAIN...THIS IS A MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...AND SOME DAYS/NIGHTS WILL BE DRIER THAN OTHERS.
ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN HOW DRY IT`S BEEN
LATELY...IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR FROM ANY STEADIER/CONCENTRATED ZONES OF RAIN GIVEN THAT THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY "HARD" AND THAT LIMITED EARLY SPRING VEGETATIVE
GROWTH WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT RUNOFF.
2) WILL THERE BE ONE OR MORE SEVERE STORM CHANCES? WELL...GIVEN
THAT IT`S APRIL AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONE CERTAINLY CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON ONE OR MORE DAYS BETWEEN
FRIDAY-MONDAY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST AT THIS DAY 4-7 RANGE...MODELS
SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS SEEM MORE INDICATIVE OF A LIMITED
CAPE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY MOIST/SATURATED PROFILES
AND FAIRLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...THIS JUST
SEEMS LIKE MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SETUP THAN A SEVERE
WEATHER ONE FOR NOW...BUT LATER MESOSCALE DETAILS COULD ALWAYS
DICTATE OTHERWISE. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL GENERALLY "DOWNPLAY" THE
THUNDERSTORM ASPECT BY USING "ISOLATED" THUNDER WORDING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG CROSS WINDS TODAY ON RWY 13/31 AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A LITTLE ALTOCU AROUND 8K FT. LIGHT ESE
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE: VFR. A FEW ALTOCU 8-10K FT. WINDS BECOME S AND INCREASE 20-30
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE EVE: VFR. A FEW ALTOCU AROUND 12K FT POSSIBLE. S WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS. MARGINAL LLWS POSSIBLE...BUT IT`S NOT IN
THE TAFS YET.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT
WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE
SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS
QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN.
THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE
FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN
CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL
RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE AVE.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW
PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST.
BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN
KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF
WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE
SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE
DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX
WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH
AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT
MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY TO 30 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F
TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH
THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND
OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z
WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH.
AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
350 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350AM THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM BUCKHANNON
TO LOGAN WV. RELIED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD
FRONT AND POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS
SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PKB AND HTS GOT BRIEF
IFR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL TRY TO TIME THIS OUT
TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HEADS EAST TODAY...AS DRIER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MOST
OF WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0530Z COLD FRONT IS THROUGH HTS...APPROACHING CRW AND CKB.
RELIED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND
POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. FOR
THE MOST PART...CONSENSUS KEEPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH GOING FORECAST...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR UPGRADE TO WARNING...OR CHANGES
TO THE WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS SLOWLY BY TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA THIS
PERIOD. THIS SPELLS DRY WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST.
LEANED LOW FOR LOWS AND A BIT HIGHER FOR HIGHS FOR LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES.
LOWS WED NT LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PKB AND HTS GOT BRIEF
IFR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL TRY TO TIME THIS OUT
TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
358 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/CKV/CSV...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NASHVILLE AND WILL SLIP
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME, SO WILL
KEEP VCSH IN FOR BNA & CSV IN THE NEAR TERM. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
STAY AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA, BUT DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN WILL IMPROVE CIGS EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH VFR WX
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 40 69 52 69 / 10 0 10 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 64 38 67 49 67 / 10 0 10 20 30
CROSSVILLE 58 38 64 48 65 / 30 0 10 20 30
COLUMBIA 63 40 69 51 68 / 10 0 10 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 64 39 70 51 68 / 20 0 10 30 30
WAVERLY 64 39 67 51 68 / 10 0 10 30 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1259 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 AND MVFR WEST. A
TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING. EXPECT
VFR/MVFR MIXTURE DRG THE AFTN/EVENING ALONG WITH ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WL BE PSBL
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 281 DRG THE 00-06Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...ONLY TWO MAIN CHANGES. FIRST WAS TO INCLUDE FOG
OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...PATCHY WESTERN BRUSH AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS WELL AS COAST WITH AREAS OF FOG MOST INLAND AREAS. GFE
FORECAST MONITOR MAINLY IN THE GREEN SO TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS
SEEM OK FOR NOW. SECOND CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND EXPECTED STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH RAIN CHANCES
LOOKING PROMISING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS
ARE OUT. MARINE FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECAST...SO DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGES THERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS
BEFORE 12/06Z...AND LIKELY IFR AT KVCT WITH MVFR BR. CONDITIONS
THEN GO TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS FALLING TO BLO 1SM (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AT KALI AND KVCT AOB 12/08Z WITH BOUNDARY
APPROACHING AND 925 MB WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS. MAY HAVE TEMPO IFR BR
AT KCRP BEFORE 14Z TOO. AT KLRD...GENERALLY NE/ENE WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND THUS AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 12/06Z BUT BFR 12/12Z WITH MVFR BR TOO. CIGS IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR AFTER 15Z (MAYBE A BIT LATER AT KVCT IF FOG IS VERY
BAD). CIGS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR AT KVCT AND KCRP...BUT VFR AOA 12/18Z
AT KALI AND KLRD. DID MENTION VCSH AT EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH
VCTS AND PROB30 TSRA AT KLRD MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
WINDS START OFF NORTHEAST BUT LIKELY BECOMING MORE ENE DURING THE
DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 69 78 65 80 / 20 60 60 10 10
VICTORIA 80 65 75 60 79 / 20 60 70 10 10
LAREDO 85 69 83 64 86 / 30 60 30 10 10
ALICE 83 69 79 63 83 / 20 60 60 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 69 76 65 77 / 20 60 70 20 10
COTULLA 80 65 79 60 84 / 30 60 50 10 10
KINGSVILLE 83 69 80 64 82 / 20 60 60 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 70 77 67 77 / 20 60 60 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 AM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED SMALL COLD CORE WAVE WAS EJECTING EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WHILE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE
FEEDING INTO THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDS INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN
ARIZONA. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA SAMPLED UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 MEASURE OF -21C FALLING WELL BELOW THE LOWEST 10TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY) WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC PORTION
OF THIS WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...WEAK
DEFORMATION...AND MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW A DISTINCT LIMITING NORTHWARD
EXTENT TO ASCENT FIELDS WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS CUTTING OFF
THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY.
THEREFORE WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS/STORMS INTO ONLY THE EASTERN PARTS
OF SRN GILA COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A BLEND OF HRRR AND
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS
EVOLUTION. OTHERWISE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFINE
CLOUD COVER AND HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST
THINKING REMAIN ON TRACK TODAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/340 AM MST TUE APR 12 2016/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WEAK RIDGING WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
500MB HEIGHTS PERSISTING IN THE 573-579DM RANGE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THIS TIME
FRAME...SO WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM UP...MODEL 850MB TEMPS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE
OF ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES INTO THE 17-20C RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO PEAKS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME... THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE 12.06 GFS NOW FASTER
PLACING A 549DM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE 12.00 ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST ARRIVING WITH
A 550DM CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
BEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING. BLENDED APPROACH TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO BE
EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRICKLE DOWN WITH EACH
MODEL RUN...SO HAVE TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 80 MILES EAST OF
THE PHOENIX AREA. THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT AGAIN WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE PHOENIX
TERMINALS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
FOR SOME FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES RISING FROM 6K TO 8K FT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW 10 KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
KIPL/KBLH. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS CLEARED THE COAST. THERE LOOKS
TO BE SEVERAL HOURS OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWER BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE 250 HPA JET PROPAGATES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TIMED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
AND REACHING THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REDEVELOP AS MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN FORM AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD CANOPY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA.
POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 60-70 PERCENT UNTIL TRENDS BECOME A BIT
MORE APPARENT ON WHERE ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE. THE LATEST H3R,
NSSL-WRF AND RAP ALL INDICATE THE GREATER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE GREATEST
AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS AREA BASED ON GOES-E
VISIBLE AND MODEL DERIVED SATELLITE DATA. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S IN
THE DARIEN-LUDOWICI- SAVANNAH CORRIDOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS ASSESSED TO BE LOW GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY PROFILES,
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...LIKELY
GUSTING OVER 20 MPH NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO LATE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES COULD
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH
LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 50S MOST OTHER AREAS...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND FAR
SOUTH.
THIS PERIOD STILL INCLUDES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DUE TO A COMPLEX/BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN AND AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. AN UPPER LOW AND/OR UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF VORTICITY ALOFT WILL BECOME TRAPPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...
SUPPORTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH.
PRIMARY QUESTIONS INCLUDE WHETHER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSION OF SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND IF SO HOW FAR
NORTH WILL DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE EXPAND INTO OUR AREA. FURTHER...
UNCERTAINTY IS HEIGHTENED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND MOST PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS AN ATTEMPT TO SYNTHESIZE
VARYING 12/00 UTC SOLUTIONS WITHOUT INTRODUCING MAJOR FORECAST
CHANGES. IN GENERAL...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM HIGHEST SOUTH TO
LOWEST NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...LIMITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT BUT MAINTAINED POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH
ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH.
IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...A POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS PERIOD COULD BECOME MUCH WETTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO...MOST/ALL RAIN COULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES COULD BE
FORTHCOMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALSO OF NOTE...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PUSHING AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION...TRANSLATING TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND. THE PACE OF THIS DRYING/WARMING TREND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AND COULD REMAIN SLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S/LOWER 80F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASES AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE
VFR CIGS SO WE KEPT IT VFR FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY WEAK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT
SOME DRIZZLE COULD LINGER AND CIGS WILL LOWER...POSSIBLY DOWN TO
LIFR LEVELS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST TOWARD EVENING
AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS 20-25 KT
ARE LIKELY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
IN LOWER CEILINGS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL 15 KT
OR LESS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA STARTING
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING AFTERWARD. SHOULD SEE GUSTS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS /25
KT/ OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS LATE.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE REGION
REMAINS LOCKED IN A WELL-MIXED/TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REGIME BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. DUE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WE RAISED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FOR AMZ350 STARTING AT 5 AM
WEDNESDAY...AND STARTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH DURING THE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GALES COULD
EVEN DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ374. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ARISES REGARDING THE END TIMES OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AT THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND FOR OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS AMZ374...EVEN IF WINDS
RELAX THIS WEEKEND SEAS WILL EASILY EXCEED 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...SO
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY/THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT/STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TIDES AND
SURF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DUE TO THE EXTENDED NATURE OF
THIS EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS POCATELLO ID
852 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS MORNING. WE DID TWEAK GRIDS
HERE AND THERE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM POCATELLO TO INL AND BACK TO THE
WEST. WE ALSO DECREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE IDAHO WASATCH AND THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH STORMS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
WEST THIS MORNING SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN MOISTURE UP INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA WHILE THE NORTHERN
BRANCH IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO OR/WA AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HRRR BEGINS CONVECTION AROUND 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM/GFS KEEP ACTIVITY MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 9500-10000 FT SO ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD
SEE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWER TO 7500-8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW IS DRIVEN ONSHORE. AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS/NAM AT ODDS WITH
TRAJECTORY OF UPPER LOW. GFS DRIVES LOW INTO GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHILE THE NAM PUTS IT RIGHT OVER EAST IDAHO. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON THE TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING LOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE GFS APPEARS
TO DIG THE LOW SE THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NRN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF DRIVES THE LOW EAST INTO NRN IDAHO
THURSDAY WHILE SECONDARY FOLLOW-ON ENERGY CARVES OUT A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER NRN ARIZONA WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER CNTRL
MONTANA. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF DRIVES THE ARIZONA LOW CENTER INTO
NE NEW MEXICO AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW STATES WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS THE LOW CAMPED OUT OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE STILL IMPACTING THE ERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY
LIFT THE LOW NORTHWARD...THE GFS A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN EVENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE
RESULTING SOLUTIONS EITHER SPELL SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS OR
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT STOP THERE...BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SEND A PAC TROUGH EWRD
OVER THE RIDGE BUT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION IT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
OVER IDAHO WITH ATTENDING WIND AND SHOWERS WHEREAS THE ECMWF TAKES
THE WAVE EAST THROUGH CANADA LEAVING SE IDAHO DRY AND WARM. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THIS UNTIL THE MODELS FIND A
COMMON SOLUTION. HUSTON
AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A TROUGH WAS ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST
AND NUMERICAL MODELS DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON FORCING CONVECTION IN
THAT REGION WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A
PASSING VORT FEATURE TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS. VCTY TSTMS ARE A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH VFR BKN CIGS. MIGHT SEE MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS IF A
CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL AND WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MODEL TIME-SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE SE
HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. FULL SUNSHINE OVER
THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASED SW WINDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MORNING FOG OVER SW ZONES TO DISSIPATE. SOME TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS
FROM LATEST HOURLY TREND...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KGLD UNTIL NEAR
14Z...6SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MID MORNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 17 TO 22 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED AT KGLD. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND LOSE THEIR GUSTS NEAR SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
845 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Cancelled all fog/frost advisories and the freeze warning.
Temperatures are warming and fog is lifting.
UPDATE Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC
through daybreak as patchy fog continues to develop across
portions of southwest Kansas. A brief period of IFR vsbys cannot
be ruled out at KGCK. Additionally, pockets of low level stratus
will continue to develop within a southeasterly upslope flow
through mid morning producing possible MVFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be the general rule at all TAF
sites by early this afternoon. Light southerly winds will slowly
increase to around 15 to 25kt through this afternoon as a lee side
trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado. The
southerly winds will subside somewhat this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
The region was under northwesterly flow aloft as the mid-level
trough progressed eastward beyond the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over Minnesota and Iowa and
stretched southward across Kansas, resulting in light northeasterly
winds early this morning. The combination of light winds and clear
skies was resulting in good radiational cooling, which should cause
temperatures to plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s by sunrise. As
a result, a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am this morning.
Surface high pressure will shift east of the region through the day,
causing winds to shift to the south and southeast. This southerly
component to the wind combined with mostly sunny skies will allow
for seasonal conditions today with highs reaching into the low/mid
60s. Conditions will remain dry through the day with dewpoint
temperatures generally staying in the 20s, resulting in relative
humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20 percent range. In
general, winds should remain light enough to limit any fire weather
concerns across most of northeast and east central Kansas. However,
there will be some elevated fire danger concerns across north
central Kansas as this is where the drier conditions are expected
and winds may gust upwards of 20-25mph as a weak pressure gradient
begins to develop due to an advancing surface low. The region will
remain wedged between surface high pressure to the east and surface
low pressure to the west tonight, resulting in clear skies and light
southerly winds. These southerly winds will allow overnight
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows
in the mid/upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
An upper level low pressure trough will move slowly eastward across
the Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday before moving off
into the lower Mississippi Valley. Another upper level low in the
Gulf of Alaska this morning will move into the Pacific Northwest late
Wednesday then into the Rockies on Friday. The upper trough deepens
over the four corners region then progresses slowly eastward across
the Plains through early next week. The models continue to differ in
the eastward progression with the GFS slower than the ECMWF and CMC.
Will continue to favor a lean toward the non GFS solutions for the
forecast. By Friday the upper low will eject lead shortwave energy
into the Plains by late Friday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across north central Kansas. Precipitation chances
will gradually increase from west to east through the weekend and
expect periods of showers and thunderstorms off and on into early
next week. The slow eastward progression will lead to increasingly
deep moisture from the Gulf into the Plains. This will lead to
precipitable water values as high as 1.25 inches across eastern
Kansas by Monday. Could see some moderate rainfall across the area
which will help to alleviate the abnormally dry conditions that exist
across north central and northeast Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will shift from east to southeast this morning as surface
high pressure shifts east of the area. Winds should stay near or
below 12kts through the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC
through daybreak as patchy fog continues to develop across
portions of southwest Kansas. A brief period of IFR vsbys cannot
be ruled out at KGCK. Additionally, pockets of low level stratus
will continue to develop within a southeasterly upslope flow
through mid morning producing possible MVFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be the general rule at all TAF
sites by early this afternoon. Light southerly winds will slowly
increase to around 15 to 25kt through this afternoon as a lee side
trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado. The
southerly winds will subside somewhat this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 64 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-043>045-
063-064-076>081-086>090.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-065-
066.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES...FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM
W TO E THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES AND LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS. AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME -SN TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND KIWD/KSAW MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
SMALL SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE WEST AND
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HRRR CAPES RISE TO AROUND 400J/KG OVER THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDESTORMS. ALL OF THIS LOOKS ON TRACK IN THE GOING FORECAST AND
WILL THUS NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY TO CLEAN UP BORDERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. ENERGY STREAMS INTO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AS FAR AS BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN DURING THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM STALLS A BIT AT THIS
POINT...PROGRESSING NO FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC DIGS SOUTH.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...FINALLY ALLOWING PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
ZONES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY MAKES HIGH TEMPS A BIT CHALLENGING. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF GFS WOULD ALLOW GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WARMUP...BUT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HAMPER WARMUP A IT. FASTER MOVEMENT OF ECMWF
WOULD CUT OFF DIURNAL HEATING MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY. CHOSE TO
PARE BACK TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT STILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DRY
SLOTTING ACROSS THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GILSTAD
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE COMING FOR OUR CWA LATER THIS
WEEK...BUT THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...AND EVOLUTION OF WHAT
WILL BECOME A VERY BLOCKED LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
TRACKS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...LEAVING US UNDER A
PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH UPSLOPING SFC TO MID LEVEL
FLOW. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THESE PERIODS...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST WHERE FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SE MT ALONG AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR. A COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND SOME CANADIAN ADVECTION
WILL FORCE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR +2C BY FRIDAY...AND THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. BETTER
CHANCE OF ANY WET SNOWFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF PCPN WILL CONTINUE. MAIN ISSUE HERE IS THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD TO SEE AN INCH OR MORE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A
NUMBER THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PAST SEVERAL GEFS MEANS. COUPLE OTHER ITEMS TO KEEP IN MIND: THE
CHILLY AND WET WEATHER MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUNG LIVESTOCK...AND
SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ON N-E ASPECTS.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF A
STRONG OMEGA BLOCK BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS LOW FLANKED BY STRONG RIDGES OVER THE PAC COAST AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH SUCH A
STAGNATING PATTERN THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN LOW IS
HIGHLY IN QUESTION...WITH POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SHOWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL CONSENSUS
WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN SPLIT LOW TO BECOME DOMINANT BY THIS
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SO
WILL CONTINUE THE THEME WITH LOWERING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT A PV AXIS TO
OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHTER PCPN IN OUR CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS
WOULD ALSO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS RIDGING
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE PAC NW OVER OUR REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY WITH 60S
TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF KBIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS
OF THE CRAZY...BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/068 042/060 040/045 034/052 033/058 036/066
1/B 23/W 46/T 88/R 53/W 11/B 11/U
LVM 077 042/061 038/056 035/044 030/051 029/058 033/067
2/T 37/T 57/T 88/R 53/W 11/B 11/U
HDN 080 042/072 039/062 038/048 032/053 031/060 034/067
1/B 13/W 46/T 77/R 53/W 21/B 11/U
MLS 078 043/071 041/065 042/051 034/051 032/059 035/066
0/U 12/W 45/T 75/W 43/W 21/B 11/U
4BQ 079 041/071 041/069 042/054 034/049 032/058 034/065
0/U 12/W 45/T 55/W 44/W 22/W 11/B
BHK 076 040/073 041/069 043/054 033/048 030/056 032/062
0/U 12/W 44/T 65/T 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 075 040/071 040/064 039/048 032/049 030/058 032/064
2/W 22/W 36/T 65/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN CORN BELT. RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NWD INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA.
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
LED TO A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAINED FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. AS OF 3
AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 33 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW TO 43
AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL
BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM12 RUN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A POTENTIAL OF A HIGH BASED THUNDERSHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AS MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DISCOUNTED ATTM.
BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER OF
10K FT OR MORE WOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TO HIT THE
SURFACE. WILL GET THE WORD OUT TO OUR FIRE PARTNERS VIA THE FWF OF
THE POTENTIAL OF A CB OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR THE CB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES... FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THE SRLY WINDS WILL ONLY RECYCLE DRY AIR
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN DEW POINTS
IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA OF THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TDY AS THE WESTERN CWA
WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THUS LOWER
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE WEST...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE EAST. MINIMUM RH/S THIS
AFTERNOON BOTTOM OUT IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EAST.
ATTM TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG HIGHLIGHTS. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
IN THE EAST...TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST. LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND A WEAK CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTM...KEPT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT AND DIDN/T INTRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE POPS OR MENTION OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TIME SECTIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 10000 FT AGL...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS SPRINKLES FOR THE MOMENT. FOR
TONIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
WEST...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE RUNNING STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST... THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN COMMENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS... A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ECS GUIDANCE AND SPLITS THE VERY WARM MAV
AND THE RECENTLY TRENDING WARMER MET. WAS HESITANT TO RAISE HIGHS AS
TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE NOT CONSIDERABLY WARMER. WITH DECENT MIXING TO
AROUND 750HPA... BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS... MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS...
AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 20C PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL...
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SEEMED REASONABLE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
A LLJ DEVELOPING WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
REMOVED SCHC POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AS LIFT IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOR THURSDAY... DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMPS MUCH AS H85 TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE DIFFERENCES FROM WED ARE STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION... LIKELY FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY... AND A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER AROUND 800HPA. THICKER
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S AGAIN. TRIMMED POPS FROM KBBW-KANW AND EAST
AFTER 00Z AS MIXING RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FARTHER WEST. DID LEAVE POPS INTACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. THUNDER
INDICIES DONT LOOK TOO SHABBY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM...
MUCAPE OVER 1000J/KG... AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SLOWS TO A CRAWLING PACE. THE LOW THEN WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN... WITH
THE EURO PLACING IT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR THE AREA. DEW POINTS INCHING UP FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WITH DECENT COVERAGE OF 50+ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE NEAR RECORD PWAT VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION... GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
COLUMN AND STRONG LIFT WITH OMEGA NEAR -20US. OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING UP TO 700HPA... SO KEPT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. JET DYNAMICS IN
THE EURO ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA LIES IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100+KT 250HPA JET STREAK. GFS BRINGS THE JET STREAK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... BUT THE AREA WILL STILL EXPERIENCE
ABUNDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO UNDER
10 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REACH 23 TO
30 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT MIN RH WILL FLIRT WITH THE MINIMUM RH
CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR ZONE 209. ATTM...MIN RH FCST WILL BE
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A RFW WITH THE AM PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE FIRE
DANGER IN THE HWO TDY AS EXTREME...BUT NOT CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS WANING AS THE REMAINING RAIN IS DOING
THE SAME. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THAT AFTER A BREAK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND NEXT UPPER VORT APPROACH, THOUGH THE LATTER REALLY APPEARS
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHEREAS THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF OVER SC THE 12Z WRF HAS A MORE NORTHWARD
BIAS. MAY LOWER HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES SINCE SO FAR VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WE REMAIN IN
THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AREA-WIDE WILL NOT TRY TO SHOW MUCH OF A
DISTINCTION THOUGH THE VORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT MAY ARGUE FOR
THE WRF IDEA.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE...
COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING HEAVY.
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH 300 J/KG
AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO REACH NEAR 40 KT WHILE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 7 DEG C/KM AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE MID
LEVELS LATER TODAY. OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEALTHY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...10-12 MICROBARS/SECOND AND THIS MAY BE
SIGNALING LESSER RAINFALL OVERALL. IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.5
INCHES...BUT THE SURGE IS BRIEF. WILL RAMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOW A DECREASING TREND LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING
BRISK NE WINDS. BY WED MORNING...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THEN ONLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE
ARE FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY NEAR A HALF INCH AS ROBUST
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY AS COMPARED TO
MON...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
COOL NE SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...TAKING ON A WEDGE-
LIKE CONFIGURATION WITH TIME. MEANTIME...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...DRAPED TO OUR E
AND S. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO A DRIER CONSENSUS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING THE LAST TO COME
ABOARD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FIRST THING WED MORNING.
ON WED...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF GOOD MOISTURE DOES HANG ON IN THE
4-6 KFT LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ON THU...THERE MAY BE MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. COOL ADVECTION ON BRISK NE WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ALL THAT APRIL
LIKE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH MODELS FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT OVERALL FEATURES ARE SIMILAR. THE FOCUS STILL
REMAINS ON THE PESKY LOW OVER TENNESSEE WITH STRUNG OUT VORTICITY
RUNNING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE DISTANT NORTH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCP REACHING INTO THE AREA ON FRI WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT JUST SOUTH. WITH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WILL CARRY
SOME LOW END POPS BASICALLY ALONG COAST AND EAST OF I95. GFS HAS
BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MIX
DOWN TO ERODE ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TEND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
RIDGE AXIS HOLDING JUST WEST OF AREA KEEPING A DEEP N-NE FLOW
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN LOW
WELL OFF SHORE AND HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
COOLER WEATHER TO START WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE
DRY AIR WILL KEEP LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TRYING TO REACH TOWARD
70.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE PREDOMINATELY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS
HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/BR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THOSE TERMINALS. THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING EAST.
THERE COULD BE LESS PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MID-
MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. MVFR WILL BECOME INCREASING LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT THIS
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KLBT. COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR...TEMPO MVFR DUE TO PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ABATE...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR. WINDS WILL BE
VEERING FROM S-SW TO THE NW WITH THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL IMPROVE INITIALLY TO VFR AT KLBT/KFLO LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY
EVENING...IN THE LATE EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THINKING AT THIS TIME. MAY SLOW THE SENSE OF TIMING
WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONT IF MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN SHOWING THIS.
WRF SHOWS THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT PUSHING THROUGH 00-03Z BUT THE
ACTUAL COOL SURGE AND WIND INCREASE ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER. ANY TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVE...SHIFTING
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO NE. A GOOD SURGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE
THE WATERS FROM N TO S WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT INTO THIS EVE...INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY....PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE AND DRAPED TO OUR S. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO NORTH AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WATERS. PERSISTENT STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...AS OF 15Z SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN EVERY LOCATION
EXCEPT FOR EKN AND BKW. BASED ON THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS FIELD...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN AN
HOUR FOR THOSE SITES TO RISE TO VFR AS WELL AND ALL SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO CLEAR BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
940 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO CLEAR BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ/MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
644 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LEAVING SOME LOW STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IFR WILL LINGER
IN BKW BEFORE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY QUICK TO BUT OVERALL...THINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/12/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
729 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEARING TREND ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
CKV ALREADY CLEAR...WITH CLEARING LINE VERY CLOSE TO BNA. LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS CSV EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN A FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT
POINT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................XXI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER BACK
TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NICELY DEFINED COLD CORE SHORTWAVE HAS NOW EJECTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FEEDING INTO
THE LEFT REAR JET CORE BUILDING INTO SERN CALIFORNIA/SWRN ARIZONA.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DEFORMATION...MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND MINOR INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEARING 500 J/KG) HAVE
SUPPORTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WHILE STEERING FLOW AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS PROPAGATING INTO
PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY...VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL MIXING OF DRY
AIR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT MORE HOSTILE
TOWARDS MAINTAINING CONVECTION DIRECTED SOUTH DOWN THE I-17 CORRIDOR.
A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS THIS EVOLUTION KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DAMPENED WEAK RIDGING/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAY IN A 573-
579DM RANGE. FULL INSOLATION WILL CREATE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WHILE MODEL H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOWARDS 16-19C RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH RECENT
MODEL OUTPUT YIELDING BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
PEAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES AMONG
ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUND WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MUCH LESS AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. ONE
MEASURE OF CONSISTENCY IS THE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHOWER
CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES CLEARING.
THE LARGEST IMPACT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SE CALIFORNIA/WRN ARIZONA. OPERATIONAL GFS
WIND ANOMALIES ARE TOWARDS THE STRONGER END OF THE MODEL SPREAD
ENVELOPE (NEAR 40KT AT H8)...HOWEVER EVEN THE NAEFS AVERAGE V-WIND
H8-H7 ANOMALIES LIE TOWARDS THE SEASONALLY EXTREME THRESHOLD.
THUS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SIGNAL TO START MENTIONING BLOWING DUST
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
WHILE TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE EXTREMELY LIKELY...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED WITH EACH MODEL RUN SO HAVE TRIMMED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TOWARDS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBSTANTIAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MEMBERS MORE RAPIDLY EJECTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS LINGER A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALBEIT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT
DISPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD THAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TO PRETTY MUCH CLEAR ALL
REMAINING CLOUDS BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...BUT WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING
LATER INTO THE EVENING THEN USUAL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND. THEREAFTER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND. VERY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND WINDS SUBSIDE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
659 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION...WHICH FORMED ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST SPC HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION SHOULD END 02Z-04Z. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING. N/NE WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED AHEAD
OF IT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR
RATHER DRY AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND ESPECIALLY THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS CLOUD COVER...TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CSRA.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CSRA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PERSISTENT IN-SITU WEDGE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY...FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS AN OMEGA BLOCK KEEPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE
REGION. DEEPENING MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE OMEGA BLOCK ERODING AND THE UPPER
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LOW
BASICALLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. EITHER WAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LACKING...WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SATELLITE INDICATING CLOUDS BREAKING UP FROM
WEST TO EAST. MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KAGS AND KDNL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER SO FAR
AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR MEANINGFUL RAINS TO DEVELOP. DESPITE
STRONG UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET, THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT IS QUICKLY EATING AWAY AT THE
RIBBON OF MOISTURE THAT IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. SOME TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED TO TAKE CURRENT TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT.
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXITS THE AREA AND A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PROPAGATES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COMPLETE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-26 TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE--WARMEST ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST, ESPECIALLY THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY, A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. THE RISK FOR DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT WITH RAP AND NAM12 POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THERE ARE VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS ON LOCATION AND
INTENSITY...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS IS THE EASY PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE GULF STATES...BUT
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE NATURE OF THIS ZONE AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT WILL TRANSLATE INTO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PERIOD
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BUT POSSIBILITIES
RANGE FROM MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND TO
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS THAN THE FORECAST PAINTS DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH INFLUENCE THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXERTS ON OUR FORECAST
AREA. GEORGIA ZONES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY TO THE ZONE AND PROGNOSED HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR GREATER COMPARED TO PWATS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.
ADDITIONALLY...A NOSE OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY SUCCEED IN
INFILTRATING SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...ASSISTING IN LIMITING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S...THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY NEAREST THE COAST...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS...THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF SHOWING POPS
PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND INCREASING TOWARDS
FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...PUSHING AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND ACTIVE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION...TRANSLATING TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND. THE PACE OF THIS DRYING/WARMING TREND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR AND COULD REMAIN SLOW THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S/LOWER 80F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY
WEAK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND COLD AIR DAMMING BUILDS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HI-RES
MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY BRINGING SUB-1KFT CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
IN LOWER CEILINGS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SPEEDS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS, INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH REACHING AS HIGH AS 2-4 FT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. THE WORSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE OFFSHORE...USHERING
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ374. AT
THIS TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE TIMEFRAME APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY
14-16Z FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND AMZ350
BEGINNING 9-10Z WEDNESDAY...AND EXTEND TO WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO
BEACH DURING THE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
DETERMINING APPROPRIATE END TIMES FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INHERENT WITH THIS WEDGE-TYPE PATTERN. FOR NOW...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR EXPIRES AT THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY
AND FOR OTHER NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE LINGERING
ELEVATED SEA CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN EVEN IF WINDS SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY AND AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS PROBABLE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
TIDES AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...THOUGH THE EXTENDED NATURE
OF THIS EVENT NECESSITATES CONTINUAL MONITORING OF TIDE TRENDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
ST/CEB/JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. FULL SUNSHINE OVER
THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASED SW WINDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
MORNING FOG OVER SW ZONES TO DISSIPATE. SOME TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS
FROM LATEST HOURLY TREND...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC FROM
YESTERDAY...FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT FLOW
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT JET LEVEL...STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MAIN ISSUE HERE WAS
THE MODELS WERE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REMAINING OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER OR MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CAPTURING THIS NICELY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS
FOG FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT IN THE GRIDS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LACKING. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF VERY NEAR THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS IT TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT SO IF SOMETHING WOULD FORM IT
WILL NOT MOVE FAR. SO RIGHT NOW AM GOING TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE MAXES.
NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NUDGING UP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DID SO.
LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO BELOW GUIDANCE. LOOKS TO BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BROUGHT
UP IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER LIGHT FOG THERE IS WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY. MODELS ARE PRODUCING A VERY LIGHT QPF SIGNAL IN THE FAR
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH A STRONGER ONE APPROACHING LATE.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THE STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT
TO NON-EXISTENT. IT DOES LOOK A LIKE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
SETTING UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY AND THE GFS
DOES NOT. NAM MAYBE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS ME CONCERNED. BASED ON ABOVE
REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOU...AM GOING TO KEEP IT DRY.
MODELS SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. BASED ON THAT AND COLLABORATION...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MORNING
STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL PLAGUE THE AREA AND MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM
IS THE ONLY MODEL HOLDING ONTO THIS. SO IN REGARDS TO THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE
DIRECTION MADE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH SOUTHEAST THE
ENTIRE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS
MAYBE APPROACHING 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS THE WINDS STAY
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON ABOVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. WITH THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE...EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND INCREASED THE POPS
SLIGHTLY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. WHILE NOT
ZERO...DONT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT AN OUTBREAK...BUT RATHER A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE
BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THE
MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. MAY FINALLY DRY OUT AROUND
TUESDAY WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES W/ ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER
AREA. WINDS SSW 15-30 KTS...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
02Z-03Z WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT TUE APR 12 2016
FOR THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THERE. CONSIDERING THE SLIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION ON
THE WINDS THAT MAKES SENSE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE WITH STRONGEST CORE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER. CONSISTENCY PROGRAM SHOWS THAT 3 HOUR CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
MET BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Cancelled all fog/frost advisories and the freeze warning.
Temperatures are warming and fog is lifting.
UPDATE Issued at 439 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
Made a call to Stanton county after observing the Stanton county
airport visibility fell to 1/4 mile. Received a report that
visibilities were near zero in places as of 4 am. Based on this
report and where the RAP and HRRR has a light southeast wind and
clear skies through daybreak have went ahead an issued a fog
advisory for areas along west of a Lakin to Ulysses line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A trough of low pressure will develop along the lee of the
Rockies today as a surface ridge axis moves from central Kansas
into Missouri. 0-1KM mean temperature trend from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday indicated a 3C warm up in north central Kansas and
around 7C in far southwest Kansas. Given this combined with 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday am currently leaning towards
keeping highs today mainly in the mid 60s.
Tonight southerly winds will continue and the dew points will be
slowly climbing back into the mid 30s. Patchy fog will not be out
of the question towards daybreak in some of the cooler low lying
areas as temperatures bottom out into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
A warmer temperatures will return to western Kansas Wednesday and
Thursday based on the temperature trends each day in the 900mb to
850mb level. The warm up in south central Kansas may not be as
dramatic as further northwest given the potential for clouds mid
week north of the upper low/trough as it crosses Oklahoma along
with weak cold air advection evident in the lower levels from the
southeasterly winds. Windy conditions by Thursday also appears
reasonable given the deepening trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado, and boundary layer winds expected from the GFS.
On Thursday night there appears to be a slight chance for evening
convection ahead of an approaching upper wave as it crosses
western Kansas. CAPE values at 00z Friday of 800 to 1500 j/kg are
forecast across western Kansas, depending on which model you
like, and 0-6km shear values will be anywhere from 30 to 40 knots.
Am a little concerned about the warming 700mb temperatures late
day but the models have been fairly consistent with attempting to
get a few storms developing on the eastern edge of the 700mb warm
layer Thursday night.
Models remain in decent agreement late week with an upper level
low deepening and moving into the four corners area. This next
upper level system will then begin to move east northeast Friday
night into Saturday and this is where the models start to diverge
on solutions. Confidence on which of these models will be more
correct is not high but even given these differences it does
appear western Kansas will enter a period of wet weather from
Friday through the weekend. Preciptable water values by early
Saturday are forecast to be at or above 1 inch across western
Kansas so agree with the previous shift that heavy rainfall may be
an issue this weekend. Exactly where and when the better
opportunity for this heavy rainfall will occur is still unclear.
Have therefore stayed close to the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init for
the precipitation chances over the weekend period along with the
cooler temperatures that will be returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2016
VFR expected at prevail at GCK, DDC and HYS through Wednesday
morning. Scattered cirrus. Gusty south winds at 15-25 kts will
diminish around 00z and back more SE. Patchy fog possible near
GCK by 12z Wed, warranting a mention of VCFG. There is a low
probability of fog impacting aviation operations at GCK. Moisture
advection begins tonight, as shortwave passes south of SW KS.
Consensus of short term models suggests associated MVFR cigs in
stratus will remain limited to a LBL-P28 line starting around 10z,
with some potential for stratus to affect the DDC terminal for a
few hours after 12z Wed. SE winds 5-10 kts overnight, with S/SW
winds of 10-15 kts resuming around 15z Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 64 38 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 41 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 66 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 40 71 49 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
428 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...
MULTI DAY RAIN EVENT IS SET TO UNFOLD THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING WE HAVE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS THE
STAGE FOR A SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHER
HI RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THAT PLAYING OUT
BUT THEY DO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN
ISSUE AT ALL THE MAIN THREAT IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
OCCUR. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS...A
SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AND STALLED FRONT ALL POINT TO PRETTY DECENT
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WHICH MEANS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON TOMORROW AND THEY
ALSO HAVE THAT SAME OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WPC ALSO EXPECTS A SWATH OF 4
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SO WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS REACHING UP TO 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
FOR NOW WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ALTHOUGH IT WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WE
THINK THE GROUND CAN HANDLE A LITTLE BIT MORE RAINFALL BEFORE IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE...HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS EVENT AS
IT UNFOLDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BEING ISSUED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 13/MH
.LONG TERM...
BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT THESE RUNS SUGGEST THE WE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR STORM BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE BLOCK. TRENDING EXTENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. HAVE MAINTAINED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. 13/MH
&&
.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND KHUM. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
ADVECTS IN ALOFT. OVERALL...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK RANGING FROM
2500 TO 4500 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...AFTER 06Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PUSH CEILINGS BACK BELOW 500 FEET AT
MOST TERMINALS BY 09Z. THESE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW...AS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPS. /32/
&&
.MARINE...
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ARE QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. BY FRI HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SERN CONUS WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ERLY/ONSHORE FLOW LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCS OR
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE
PERSISTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN
TIDAL ISSUES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
.DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 70 58 75 / 70 100 60 50
BTR 62 73 61 76 / 80 100 60 60
ASD 63 73 62 75 / 80 100 60 70
MSY 66 74 64 75 / 80 100 60 70
GPT 64 71 63 72 / 80 100 60 70
PQL 62 73 61 73 / 70 100 60 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
12Z RAOBS/LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW ALF BTWN
UP RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND PERSISTENT UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. A
SHRTWV RDG ACCOMPANIED BY 12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 130M/SFC HI PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE NW GREAT LKS. WITH DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB AND MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW...SC THAT PREVAILED ACRS THE CWA EARLIER
IS BREAKING UP W-E AND GIVING WAY TO MOSUNNY SKIES DESPITE SOME
LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROFFING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS
DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND BRINGING MORE MID/HI CLDS INTO
MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT INTO WED FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS.
SHRTWV OVEF SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SE TNGT AND REACH
WRN UPR MI/WRN WI BY 12Z WED. DPVA/WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WNW-ESE TNGT. SINCE THE SHORTER TERM
GUIDANCE SHOW SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER WI...
SHARPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 290K SFC AND H65-7 FGEN
ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE WI BORDER COUNTIES OF UPR MI CLOSER TO THE
WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH NEARLY 3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AT H75
ALONG THE WI BORDER...MODEL QPF IS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10-0.15 INCH
EVEN ALONG THE BORDER AS DYNAMIC FORCING MUST OVERCOME DRY LLVL AIR
MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTN. EVEN IF SN/WATER RATIO REACHES 15:1
WITH RATHER HI DGZ CENTERED BTWN 10-13K FT AGL...EXPECT NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OF SN ACCUM ALONG THE WI BORDER IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WHEN
THE MOST SGNFT FORCING IS FCST. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TNGT OVER
THE E...WHERE CLDS WL BE ABSENT/THINNER FOR A LONGER TIME FARTHER FM
THE WARM FNT TO THE SW. FCST POPS WL BE NO HIER THAN SCHC OVER THE
FAR NE DEEPER INTO DRY AIR/FARTHER FM WARM FNT.
AS THE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE SE ON WED...MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH/END LINGERING PCPN BY THE AFTN...WHICH MAY
TEND TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO RA BEFORE ENDING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING. BUT MODEL FCST SDNGS SUG A GOOD DEAL OF SC WL LINGER
IN PERSISTENT WEAKER WAA PATTERN. BEST CHC FOR MORE CLRG WL BE OVER
THE W...WHERE THE LLVL SLY FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. DESPITE THE LINGERING
CLDS...INCRSG SUN ANGLE/DAYTIME HEATING WL LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN THE LO 50S OVER THE W AT IWD...WHERE MORE BREAKS ARE
LIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HI PRES DOMINATING INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF A LO PRES TRACKING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KTS. S WINDS 15-25 KTS WIL THEN
DOMINATE THE FORECAST ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THEMID ATLANTIC STATES. AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NE ON SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
REALLY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM...WHICH STARTS 00Z THU.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY PRECIP WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIP
SOMETIME SUN INTO EARLY MON AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...THEN DRY TUE.
MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS CERTAINLY WARM TEMPS. AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE N-NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S THU...THEN 60-70 FRI/SAT/SUN. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. WILL BE WATCHING RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RFC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROF SHIFTING E
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO EXITING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -10
TO -12C HAS BEEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. THERE`S NOT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES NOTED OVER W AND NW UPPER MI CURRENTLY. TO THE E...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT REGIME EXTENDING INTO
ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT AND WRN LUCE COUNTIES. WITH SOME +28DBZ ECHOES
STILL NOTED...BRIEF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING. WITH THE OVERWATER
INSTABILITY AND FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE W UNDER HEIGHT
RISES...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AND DEVELOPING INTO AN OVC
LAYER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI.
UNDER SUBSIDENCE/FALLING INVERSION...EXPECT THE ONGOING LES INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. GIVEN THE
STILL ROBUST RADAR RETURNS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MUNISING
TO SHINGLETON INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. EXPECT ALL THE FLURRIES/-SHSN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO END BY AFTN. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF RATHER
SLOW TO SHIFT E AND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN THIN OUT SOME DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS E INTO THE AREA IN DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F...COOLEST N AND E
AND WARMEST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE...FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE AREA
PER 290K SFC. BEST FOCUSED ASCENT IS FCST INTO FAR NRN WI AND INTO
ADJACENT UPPER MI...AND THAT IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW GREATEST
QPF. ASCENT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE ANTECEDANT DRY AIR
PER FCST SOUNDINGS. SO...ALTHOUGH 290K SFC/AROUND 750MB SHOWS MIXING
RATIOS OF 3G/KG AVBL...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW PER
6HRS...IT`S NOT LIKELY THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. FCST WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO THE
COUNTIES BORDERING WI OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5
INCHES BY 12Z WED. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC TO THE N AND
E...AND WILL KEEP THE E DRY OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM
POLAR BRANCH WILL AFFECT GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN STRONG JET
FM JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING
TOWARD WESTERN CONUS COAST WILL PUSH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK WHILE TROUGH MOVES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN CONUS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
ALSO DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL
SPLIT AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN RIDGE
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST. PVA
FM SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO CNTRL CWA ON WED MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
DIMINISHES HEADING INTO EASTERN CWA AND DRY AIR IS MOST RESILIENT
THERE...SO EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH FM CENTRAL TO EAST CWA ON WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED OVER THE WEST HALF. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WED...MAYBE UP TO 1 INCH...IS OVER SOUTHWEST CWA. ONCE THE
PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED
AFTN TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES FAR WEST AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CWA WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
EAST TO SEE MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPR 20S ON WED NIGHT. TIGHTER
GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER FAR WEST
FM DROPPING MUCH BLO 40 DEGREES.
MUCH WARMER AND ALSO DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SNOW PACK TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN SOME
PLACES TO COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR. WITH EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...CONTINUED TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS AND LOWER AFTN TD/RH. PEAK OF WARMTH
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT /MAXES NEARING 70 OVER THE WEST/ AND POSSIBLY
SUN...AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CWA AHEAD OF FRONT BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS THIS WARM DURING THE DAYS THE
SNOWMELT COULD END UP MORE GRADUAL WITH DRY AIRMASS AND AS TEMPS AT
LEAST INLAND FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. BROUGHT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS TURNING NE OFF LK SUPERIOR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN U.P.
COMPARED TO THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES/DRY LLVL AIR FM THE W WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVNG EVEN THOUGH SOME HIER CLDS WL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SOME
-SN TO MAINLY THE SW HALF OF UPR MI LATE TNGT...WHEN IWD/SAW MAY SEE
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD
INTO CMX AS WELL AFT 12Z WED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD WITH DOWNSLOPING SLY FLOW. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT SAW THRU 18Z WITH THIS SLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
WITH HIGH PRES OVER MN DRIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E...DOWN TO GENERALLY 5-15KT. S TO SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WED THRU SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND
SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR
NE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN CORN BELT. RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NWD INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA.
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS
LED TO A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAINED FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. AS OF 3
AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 33 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW TO 43
AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL
BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM12 RUN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATES A POTENTIAL OF A HIGH BASED THUNDERSHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AS MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DISCOUNTED ATTM.
BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER OF
10K FT OR MORE WOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TO HIT THE
SURFACE. WILL GET THE WORD OUT TO OUR FIRE PARTNERS VIA THE FWF OF
THE POTENTIAL OF A CB OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR THE CB.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES... FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST...THE SRLY WINDS WILL ONLY RECYCLE DRY AIR
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN DEW POINTS
IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA OF THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TDY AS THE WESTERN CWA
WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THUS LOWER
WINDS. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE WEST...AND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE EAST. MINIMUM RH/S THIS
AFTERNOON BOTTOM OUT IN THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EAST.
ATTM TOO HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG HIGHLIGHTS. MORE ABOUT THAT BELOW
IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S
IN THE EAST...TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST. LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND A WEAK CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ATTM...KEPT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT AND DIDN/T INTRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE POPS OR MENTION OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TIME SECTIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE
INDICATIVE OF A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 10000 FT AGL...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS SPRINKLES FOR THE MOMENT. FOR
TONIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE
WEST...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE RUNNING STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST... THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN COMMENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS... A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY... MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ECS GUIDANCE AND SPLITS THE VERY WARM MAV
AND THE RECENTLY TRENDING WARMER MET. WAS HESITANT TO RAISE HIGHS AS
TEMPS UPSTREAM ARE NOT CONSIDERABLY WARMER. WITH DECENT MIXING TO
AROUND 750HPA... BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS... MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS...
AND H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 20C PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL...
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SEEMED REASONABLE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
A LLJ DEVELOPING WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
REMOVED SCHC POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB AS LIFT IS VIRTUALLY NON
EXISTENT AND VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOR THURSDAY... DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMPS MUCH AS H85 TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE DIFFERENCES FROM WED ARE STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION... LIKELY FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY... AND A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER AROUND 800HPA. THICKER
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPS REACH UPPER 70S AGAIN. TRIMMED POPS FROM KBBW-KANW AND EAST
AFTER 00Z AS MIXING RATIOS AND INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FARTHER WEST. DID LEAVE POPS INTACT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. THUNDER
INDICIES DONT LOOK TOO SHABBY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM...
MUCAPE OVER 1000J/KG... AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.
LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SLOWS TO A CRAWLING PACE. THE LOW THEN WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN... WITH
THE EURO PLACING IT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIP. FELT CONFIDENT TO LEAVE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR THE AREA. DEW POINTS INCHING UP FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WITH DECENT COVERAGE OF 50+ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE NEAR RECORD PWAT VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION... GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
COLUMN AND STRONG LIFT WITH OMEGA NEAR -20US. OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... BUT TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING UP TO 700HPA... SO KEPT PTYPE AS ALL RAIN. JET DYNAMICS IN
THE EURO ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA LIES IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100+KT 250HPA JET STREAK. GFS BRINGS THE JET STREAK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... BUT THE AREA WILL STILL EXPERIENCE
ABUNDANT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A STORM DEVELOPS...ONLY MINOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED DUE TO EVAPORATION IN
THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE GUSTY /TO 30KTS AT TIMES/ SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REACH 23 TO
30 PERCENT IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT MIN RH WILL FLIRT WITH THE MINIMUM RH
CRITERIA OF 20 PERCENT FOR ZONE 209. ATTM...MIN RH FCST WILL BE
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A RFW WITH THE AM PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE FIRE
DANGER IN THE HWO TDY AS EXTREME...BUT NOT CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATING THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS WANING AS THE REMAINING RAIN IS DOING
THE SAME. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THAT AFTER A BREAK THAT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND NEXT UPPER VORT APPROACH, THOUGH THE LATTER REALLY APPEARS
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHEREAS THE HRRR SEEMS TO THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF OVER SC THE 12Z WRF HAS A MORE NORTHWARD
BIAS. MAY LOWER HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES SINCE SO FAR VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WE REMAIN IN
THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AREA-WIDE WILL NOT TRY TO SHOW MUCH OF A
DISTINCTION THOUGH THE VORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT MAY ARGUE FOR
THE WRF IDEA.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.
A LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE...
COINCIDENT WITH A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
RAINFALL...BUT NOTHING HEAVY.
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH 300 J/KG
AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO REACH NEAR 40 KT WHILE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 7 DEG C/KM AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE MID
LEVELS LATER TODAY. OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEALTHY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...10-12 MICROBARS/SECOND AND THIS MAY BE
SIGNALING LESSER RAINFALL OVERALL. IMPRESSIVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.5
INCHES...BUT THE SURGE IS BRIEF. WILL RAMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOW A DECREASING TREND LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING
BRISK NE WINDS. BY WED MORNING...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THEN ONLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE
ARE FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY NEAR A HALF INCH AS ROBUST
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY AS COMPARED TO
MON...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
COOL NE SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...TAKING ON A WEDGE-
LIKE CONFIGURATION WITH TIME. MEANTIME...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...DRAPED TO OUR E
AND S. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO A DRIER CONSENSUS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING THE LAST TO COME
ABOARD. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FIRST THING WED MORNING.
ON WED...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF
THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF GOOD MOISTURE DOES HANG ON IN THE
4-6 KFT LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN ON THU...THERE MAY BE MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. COOL ADVECTION ON BRISK NE WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL NOT MAKE IT FEEL ALL THAT APRIL
LIKE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH MODELS FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT OVERALL FEATURES ARE SIMILAR. THE FOCUS STILL
REMAINS ON THE PESKY LOW OVER TENNESSEE WITH STRUNG OUT VORTICITY
RUNNING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE DISTANT NORTH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND PCP REACHING INTO THE AREA ON FRI WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT JUST SOUTH. WITH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WILL CARRY
SOME LOW END POPS BASICALLY ALONG COAST AND EAST OF I95. GFS HAS
BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MIX
DOWN TO ERODE ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TEND TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
RIDGE AXIS HOLDING JUST WEST OF AREA KEEPING A DEEP N-NE FLOW
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN LOW
WELL OFF SHORE AND HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
COOLER WEATHER TO START WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. THE
DRY AIR WILL KEEP LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TRYING TO REACH TOWARD
70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS RAIN
IS GENERALLY FALLING FROM A VFR CLOUD CEILING BETWEEN 5 AND 9
THOUSAND FEET. MOISTURE COLLECTING NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD SEED
THE FORMATION OF LOWER STRATUS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 700-1500 FOOT RANGE
BECOMING MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ONE FINAL WAVE
OF SHOWERS...SOME POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHORTLY AND WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW DIPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL ARRIVE WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY. HOWEVER THE REAL SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR
SHOULDN`T ARRIVE UNTIL 04-05Z AT WHICH POINT SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 12G19 FROM THE NORTH...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE GULF COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING AT
THIS TIME. MAY SLOW THE SENSE OF TIMING WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONT
IF MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN SHOWING THIS. WRF SHOWS THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT PUSHING THROUGH 00-03Z BUT THE ACTUAL COOL SURGE AND WIND
INCREASE ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER. ANY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVE...SHIFTING
SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO NE. A GOOD SURGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE
THE WATERS FROM N TO S WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT INTO THIS EVE...INCREASING TO 3
TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY....PERSISTENT NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT
WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE AND DRAPED TO OUR S. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO NORTH AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WATERS. PERSISTENT STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THIS MORNING...DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDES
PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN. HAVE UPDATED
SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBS/TRENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600AM THE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH BKW AND EKN. RELIED
FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FOR MARCHING THE COLD FRONT AND POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CODED UP SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE IS HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING FOR ALL BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. USED
LOCALLY PRODUCED MOS BASED ON COOP SITES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS
PRODUCT DOES FAIRLY WELL CAPTURING THE COLD SPOTS IN SE OHIO AND NE
KENTUCKY. FOR EXAMPLE THIS GUIDANCE GIVING AROUND 30 IN THE LOWER
SPOTS OF GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTY KY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ADDED NE KY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO TO THE MIX. FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO AND TUG
FORK...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE RIVERS
IN OUTLYING AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEVER SETTLES IN OUR VICINITY BUT RIDGES
DOWN THE PIEDMONT FROM ITS CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
IN THE VICINITY OF BKW...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AT NIGHT...AND A BIT LOWER DURING THE DAY.
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WEAK CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MAY SPILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS NORTH. THE 00Z NAM WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US WITH WEAK
WINDS AT THOSE LEVELS.
AFTER THE INITIAL 850 MB WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SLOW TO WARM. SO NO BIG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT
ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS PERIOD LOOKS QUIET
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY...QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA WILL HELP FORM A WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S...WITH ONE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND ANOTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
THIS PATTERN PROTECTS US FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW. AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND WITH QUITE DRY
WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FOR THE LOW LANDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE 60S FRIDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY...WITH NIGHT
TIME LOWS MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...AS OF 15Z SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN EVERY LOCATION
EXCEPT FOR EKN AND BKW. BASED ON THE CURRENT WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF STRATUS FIELD...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN AN
HOUR FOR THOSE SITES TO RISE TO VFR AS WELL AND ALL SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...850 MB BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR TREND IS
INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HRRR DATA INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL EAST OF OUR
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTW...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TODAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO THE NORTH
TOWARD TN. WILL LEAN TOWARD INCREASING POPS SOME...BEGINNING ON WED
NT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
EXIT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31