Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/11/16


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
456 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED) LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON RADAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HITTING THE GAGES AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVIE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO MOST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING SOME OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO GET SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK DECENT. BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND RAP SOUNDINGS LOOKED PROMISING FOR SOME CONVECTION. THE NAM INDICATED LI READINGS TO AROUND -7 IN THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND AROUND -5 FOR THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP FROM HEATING THE SURFACE. IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP S OF POINT CONCEPTION...IT WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN DRIFTING SE INTO THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR A THUNDERSTORM WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS REMAINS VALID THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER IF STORMS DO NOT FIRE UP IN A FEW HOURS...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST AREAS...MOSTLY WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DOWNTOWN ALREADY REACHED 70 DEGREES WHILE MOST VALLEYS REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IT WAS COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA HAS ROTATED IN A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SRN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. THIS NW TO SE AXIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN AND NE FACING SLOPES ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING UPPER LOW...ANOTHER UPPER LVL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PAC.IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IT WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE TOWARDS SAN DIEGO AND NRN BAJA...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGHER POPS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 500-700 MB. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE LOCAL ROAD FLOODING IF ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP. THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO TREND HIGHER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN EDDYWILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIN UP A DEEP MARINE LAYER TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF LA/VTU AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES. MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CENTRAL COAST MOSTLY CLEAR. MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND LOMPOC AND VANDENBERG AFB. .LONG TERM...(THU-SUN) BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE...MIGHT BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDOWNER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ MTNS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE NEXT INSIDE SLIDER MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SLO COUNTY. HAVE HEDGED BACK POPS ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THEN DIG SOUTH OVER NEVADA. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHREAL SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MOSTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE VTU/LA COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN SLO/SBA VALLEYS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FRI AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...11/0000Z. AT 00Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. && .MARINE...10/200 PM... LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...CK AVIATION...HALL MARINE...KJ SYNOPSIS...SWEET WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
246 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE) LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE VTU COUNTY COAST AND VLYS TO THE SANTA MONICA MTNS...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.40 INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PEAK RATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OR MORE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT (LAXFFALOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THRU TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR THE COAST AND VLYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF SRN CA WILL MOVE E TO THE FAR SRN CA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUN...REACHING AZ BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SRN CA CST SUN AND MOVE WELL S OF THE AREA ON MON. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA THRU MON. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN CA ON TUE. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUN INTO SUN EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS...AND SUN EVENING IN THE MTNS...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE CST/VLYS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THRU SUN EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...BUT AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH. SNOWFALL OF UP TO 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET... OTHERWISE ELEVATIONS OF 7000 TO 7500 FEET COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM KEEPS DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MTNS INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. LOCALLY GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA THRU MON...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE THANKS TO THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE PEEKING THRU THE CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...(WED-SAT) THE GFS/EC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHO SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FRI AND SAT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA CST ON WED...THEN MOVE INLAND MAINLY OVER NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON THU...WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN FRI AND SAT...ALTHO THE GFS WAS SLOWER THAN THE EC WITH THIS FEATURE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN CA ON THU FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WED THRU SAT. THE UPPER TROF WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND DESERTS FOR THU AND FRI. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO TURN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED...AND COOLER STILL ON THU TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMUP IS FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT. && .AVIATION...09/1800Z. AT 1800Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH NO TRUE MARINE INVERSION. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CIG CATS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDS. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS...CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT E WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 8 KNOTS BEFORE 20Z. KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. && .MARINE...09/200 PM. SE TO S WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND WATERSPOUTS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 40-44-45-54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...SIRARD AVIATION...SWEET MARINE...SWEET SYNOPSIS...B WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 234 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .Synopsis... A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain showers will likely continue early next week with another round of showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts. && .Discussion... Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. The main area continues to be from around I-80 southward with isolated showers and sprinkles are occurring to the north. The HRRR model indicates a band developing around Plumas/Shasta counties this evening then moving into the central and northern Sacramento valley. I left in a slight chance of thunderstorms over parts of Plumas and Shasta counties. Further south showers should continue to move westward into the valley. The low will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours with little change in the weather expected over Northern California. Another low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the coast to help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday. On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley and mountains. Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks getting some snow. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday) Models in a little better agreement with latest runs as next trough drops SE into the Pac NW by middle of the week. A few mountain showers are possible Wednesday as weak shortwave ahead of trough moves through NorCal. Have cut back POPs during this timeframe as main trough likely won`t move through until later Wednesday into Thursday. More widespread precipitation possible with this wave. Model solutions still painting heaviest precip across the mountains with lesser amounts in the Valley. Most notable aspect with this system is colder air given origin in Gulf of Alaska. This will drop snow levels to between 4500-5500 feet which could cause some travel headaches across the mountains. Temperatures will also be cooler than the start of the week. Ridging then builds in for Friday into the weekend with drier weather and warming trend in temperatures. CEO && .AVIATION... Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest across southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will lead to MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs in heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less. CEO/Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. WARMER AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST STRENGTHENS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH IS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MORNING SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED THAT DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA...WITH PW DOWN TO 0.76 INCHES. HOWEVER...ONE LOOK AT RADAR AND ONE CAN SEE SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN IN A FORMIDABLE BAND SOME 10-20 NM OFFSHORE. THIS IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AFTER 1030 AM. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BAND TO SEE HOW IT HOLDS TOGETHER. HI-RES MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING PARTICULARY IN ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD CELLS TRAIN OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. SO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING NEAR TERM TRENDS TODAY. THE THRUST OF THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST BY 12Z. POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL BE ASSESSING WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AGAIN TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH...WITH NOW BOTH GFS AND EC TAKING THE LOW INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATER TOTALS ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO ORANGE COUNTY. GREATER RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT FROM BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH (AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES AND RAINFALL TOTALS. THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH SNOWFALL MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD END BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND MORE INLAND WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING COOLING AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 091557Z...PATCHY BKN-OVC CLOUDS IN THE 2000-10000 FT MSL LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL ELSEWHERE...ISOL SHRA AND MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-10/0000 UTC...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE 2000- 10000 FT MSL LAYER WITH INCREASING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. SLOPES MAY BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. 10/0000-1500 UTC...MERGING CLOUD LAYERS 1000-20000 FT MSL WITH WIDESPREAD-SCT SHRA/+SHRA AND ISOL TSRA PRODUCING AREAS OF VIS 2-5 SM. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL VIS/CIGS AOB 1 SM/800 FT AGL RESPECTIVELY POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH +SHRA/TSRA WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SLOPES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY DURING THE 10/0600-1200 UTC TIME- PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS. && .MARINE... 857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WITH MORE DETAILS HAS BEEN POSTED. && .BEACHES... 857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AT THE BEACHES...PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD-TO-WATER OR CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GREGORIA AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 920 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .Synopsis... A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain showers will likely continue early next week with another round of showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts. && .Discussion... Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. Currently there is a band that is over the Sierra Nevada and extending into the Sacramento region. This area will continue to spread westward this morning so little change is expected from around Sacramento southward through the morning. To the north isolated showers and sprinkles are occurring. Mountain areas should see an increase in activity this afternoon. The HRRR model indicates a band developing around Placer/Sierra counties this afternoon and moving into the valley. The low will slowly move inland over the next 36 hours with little change in the weather expected over Northern California. Another low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the coast to help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday. On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley and mountains. Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks getting some snow. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday) The current upper lows are associated with a Rex Block pattern while the low coming in mid next week is a colder trough tied to the main jet stream and a colder maritime polar airmass. This trough will be dropping into and through NorCal Wednesday and Thursday. With the pattern change, discrepancies do exist between the GFS and ECMWF on exact timing and placement. The GFS shows a trough that deepens into a low over NorCal Wednesday while the ECMWF is quicker and more shallow. Most notably, the shallower ECMWF track could limit the amount of precipitation in the southern part of our forecast area and delay it until Wednesday night or early Thursday. We maintained our forecast that represents a mix of the two solutions due to the model uncertainty. Ridging develops over NorCal Friday and Saturday with the potential for lingering Sierra showers Friday. Another trough looks to bring precipitation back into NW California by late next weekend. JClapp && .AVIATION... Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest across southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will lead to MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs in heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
343 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE WEATHER THIS MORNING IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 30N 125W OR 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS HAS ABSORBED THE OLD LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV WHICH IS NOW ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE MAY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE COAST. THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO MENDOCINO COUNTY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME MAY FORM OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND POSSIBLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS STOPPING SHORT OF THE AREA OR JUST OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SO WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO EXACT ON THE LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN AND STARTS TO BECOME A NEW CUTOFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AND STARTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO TO THE COAST. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER WEATHER AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. MKK && .AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION REFLECTING THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS BUT ALSO DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AT KUKI DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AT TIMES REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY. && .MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THIS LOW WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS. && .MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS. && .MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7 FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER... LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL TELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7 FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER... LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL TELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. THUS...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES... GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT UPPER 40S NYC METRO. S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NW. INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE. THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH PERSISTENT SSW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET. IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1 INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S. A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION. CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY LOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORY REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF AND POSSIBLY AT KHPN. WINDS DIMINISH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN FORECAST. IN ADDITION... OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... ADJUSTED TIMING OF SCA ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO START MON MORNING. SLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON NGT. WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM/DW NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/DW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/JM/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVERAGE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING. S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE. THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH PERSISTENT SSW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET. IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1 INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S. A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION. CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LOWERS OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORY REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF AND POSSIBLY AT KHPN. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WHICH COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN FORECAST. IN ADDITION... OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON NGT. WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WELL EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK LOW PRES WAS EMERGING FROM THE DELMARVA AT 14Z PER MSAS. WATER VAPOR PLACED THE UPR LOW OVER WRN PA. TSTMS EVIDENT OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH THE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS CNTRL NJ SPREADING NWD. DRY AMS OVER THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. EXPECT SOME EROSION OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT APPROACHED THE REGION AS A RESULT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM KEEP THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN S OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY BANDING THIS EVE. BANDS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...AS WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABV 1000FT OUTSIDE OF ANY INTENSE BANDING. SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR TODAY AND REDUCED SNOWFALL THRU 18Z FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER THE RAP SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS ERN LI AFT 00Z...WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THIS SOLN YET ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING CONDS ON BREEZY N/NW FLOW. 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY IN THE EVENING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF NY STATE AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THAT FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AS THAT WARM FRONT APPROACHES... SOME MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S AND WILL APPROACH 60 IN SOME AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WINDS DOWN DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST AS OF 15Z MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. LGT RA MIXES WITH SN AT TIMES AS...THOUGH EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS IT`S UNLIKELY FOR ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SOME SLUSH THAT MIGHT REQUIRE TREATMENT. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR (IF IT DOES) WOULD BE 20-22Z IN THE NY METRO. NE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE IN WIND AROUND 00-01Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN AT THE LOW INTENSIFIES. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN...VFR. .SUN NGT-TUE...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORN THROUGH MON EVE. .WED...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS NNW AND INCREASE. SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS LEADING UP TO INCREASING WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. GALES ON THE OCEAN SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING SEAS AND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25KT SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA ONCE GALES ARE OVER. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT OTHERWISE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS. SCA THEREFORE FOR TONIGHT. A GUST OR TWO TO 25KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS...BUT SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL DAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONDS SLOWLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH 1/4 INCH ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO AND LI. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LI AND NYC/NJ METRO SEEING 1/2 INCH OF QPF. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUE ARE EXPECTED. ABOUT 1/2 INCH QPF POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEING THE LOWER HIGH TIDE...AND EASTERLY FLOW STILL RAMPING UP...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL RUNNING HIGH...AND ONLY 1/2 TO 1 1/2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE...BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS SURGE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE N/NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS ELSEWHERE. && .EQUIPMENT... AN EMERGENCY ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM REPLACEMENT AT WFO NEW YORK IS SCHEDULED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED DURING THAT TIME...AND SERVICE BACKUP WILL BE PROVIDED BY WFO MOUNT HOLLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...JMC/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
125 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL GIVING BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND HAVE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY CHANCE ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. DECREASED CHANCED MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INCREASED CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AHEAD OF PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GK .LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...THEN THE MID- CONTINENT TROUGH RETROGRADES OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THU NIGHT/FRI. THE ZONAL FLOW LIKELY MEANS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COMPARING ONE PRODUCT SUITE TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...WHEN THE GFS CLEARS A LITTLE AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED LOW ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. AT THAT POINT...THEY FALL INTO SHARP DISAGREEMENT AT TIMES. UNTIL THU NIGHT...CONSISTENTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS PREDICTED WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WHICH FITS IN WITH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. BOTH THE GFSX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE HIGH POPS FOR BOTH WED AND THU EVEN FOR PLACES LIKE POCATELLO. BEYOND THU PAINTED WITH A BROAD BRUSH AND INCREASED POPS FOR NEXT SAT/SAT NIGHT. MESSICK && .AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOME RAINSHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY KIDA AND KSUN ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE PUT IN SOME PREDOMINANT -SHRA. BEST INSTABILITY IS NEAR KSUN AFTER 10/00Z BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ALL FOUR TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BOUNDARY PASSAGE BETWEEN 09/23Z AND 10/00Z MAY KICK UP THE WIND. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTED BY THE HRRR IN THE PREVIOUS HOURS...SO KIDA MAY SEE SOME BRIEF WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT IS IN CURRENT TAF FROM THE WEST DURING THAT TIME. SAME COULD BE TRUE FOR KBYI WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY. MESSICK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... 842 PM CDT BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT 840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700 MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY MILDER LAKE WATERS. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 304 PM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA. MTF && .LONG TERM... 400 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE: - UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. - LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON SATURDAY MORNING. - MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD 850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80 OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY 7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION. SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE. RC && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS... 1238 AM...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS RFD/NORTHWEST IL. THESE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT GYY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH HOW SOON THESE PUSH EAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT LIKELY AROUND OR BY 09Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIP...PERHAPS SLEET WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND RAIN...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB FOR THE 30 HOUR ORD TAF...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO AND PERHAPS PREVAILING PRECIP FOR A TIME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WELL INTO THE MORNING AT GYY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FAST MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/RFD AND THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CMS && .MARINE... 425 PM CDT A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. RC && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777- LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TRANSISTION ON IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE WEEK GOES ON...ECMWF SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPS IN THE LATER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NW FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF. FURTHERMORE A DRY FORECAST LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021- 029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/50 SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...TDUD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/ FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP. TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN/50 SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/ ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER. .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON. WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S. CUTOFF LOW. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING/ ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND. COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN IA NOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 05Z WITH LIGHT NW WINDS UNDER 10KT THROUGH 12Z. MIXING QUICKLY REALIZED ALL LOCATIONS AFT 14Z MONDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS KMCW AND KALO...20-25KT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. BY 23Z...GUSTS RELAX WITH GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING AFT 00Z. CLOUDS/VIS VFR ALL MONDAY. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...ZOGG AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S (SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST 1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 434 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT GLD THAN MCK SO HAVE PUT -SHRA IN A PREVAILING GROUP BETWEEN 06-11Z WHILE MCK WILL STAY WITH VCSH. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 11Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY. THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX. SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/ SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT. FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS UPDATE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY. THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX. SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS UPDATE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today. Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire weather section. Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight. Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area. Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime radiational cooling in check. The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally. A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Winds will gradually veer through out the day today, and remain gusty even into the overnight hours. During non gusty periods there may be some low level wind shear in the early morning. An MVFR stratus deck is forecasted to move in from the south towards sunrise tomorrow. Also, there could be a brief period of showers and thunderstorms for a few hours around sunrise. Due to the low coverage decided not to mention precipitation as of now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high. Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH increases through the afternoon hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ010>012- 023-024-026-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Sanders FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today. Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire weather section. Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight. Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area. Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime radiational cooling in check. The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally. A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start out from the east around 10 kts, then veer to the southeast and increase to 15 kts with gusts to 24kts by 18Z. Winds south to southwest after 06Z around 15 kts. TSRA should remain south of the terminals in the 09Z-12Z time period, so left out for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high. Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH increases through the afternoon hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056. Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...53 FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today. Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire weather section. Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight. Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area. Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime radiational cooling in check. The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally. A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will continue to shift from northeast to east overnight, then shift further to the southeast by mid/late morning. Expect these southeast winds to become gusty by late morning/early afternoon at 20-25kts with these strong winds persisting through the evening hours. Winds may diminish slightly for a bit during the early to mid evening hours. There is some concern for LLWS this evening as a 50-60kt 850mb quickly develops. May start seeing some increasing mid-level clouds late this afternoon into this evening ahead of an approaching wave. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high. Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH increases through the afternoon hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056. Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Hennecke FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON CLEARING). SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016 A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILLBE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TOMID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGEFROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON CLEARING). SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH). CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE 3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/ EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP. BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS. GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24- 48 HRS. FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE 70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT. WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 MADE NEAR TERM POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH BLENDING OF LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85 TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN THIS REGARD. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING TONIGHT/S FREEZE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING A FEW LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE...BRINGING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST PLACES WERE VFR. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT 12Z...AND THEN LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
806 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/- DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700 MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT BRINGS IN DRIER AND A DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW. HOWEVER...KIWD SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN. AT KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS TO 30 KT AS SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TOWARD SUNRISE. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KSAW EARLY MON AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND. WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT. WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT 500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300 PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 .LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY 00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB/KINL. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 20 40 20 INL 6 34 25 41 / 10 30 40 40 BRD 10 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10 HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30 ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140>148. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OPERATING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT 700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY. THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE OVERCAST SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING FROM KOGA TO KLBF WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT KLBF WITH HIGHER RETURNS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT AND KEPT IN VFR CONDITIONS. KVTN WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER NIGHT 5KTS OR LESS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
227 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE 30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND 500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER. THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING TSTMS IN THE FCST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY PRODUCING MODERATE WIND AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT ANOTHER ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW LATE WEEK WILL USHER IN WINDS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .UPDATE...CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL A POCKET OF SHOWERS BETWEEN BAKER AND BARSTOW AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR CENTRAL SAN BERN AND MOHAVE COUNTY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING REAL SUBSTANCIAL. IVE GONE AHEAD AND REDUCED POPS FOR MOST AREAS BESIDES THE ONES MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWEAKED SKY COVER TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. -OUTLER- && .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MOHAVE. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE OVER NORTHEAST CLARK AND FAR NORTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTIES. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA RIPE WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD MESQUITE/INTERSTATE 15 THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NYE, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. HRRR MODEL WOULD SUGGEST A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES AT A STEADY CLIP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS IN RIGHT BEHIND. THIS LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY BEFORE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BUT MOST PLACES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING - MONDAY EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPID MONDAY NIGHT JUST LIKE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NORMAL TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, YET DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, IT IS NOT TYPICALLY A FAVORED PATH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY THE TERRAIN FOR THE BEST CHANCES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN A FEW VALLEYS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF TERMINAL POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COULD SEE SOME NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL START DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6K FEET. LIGHT EAST WIND WILL GO DOWNVALLEY THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE, ICING AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE LONG TERM...PADDOCK FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOME SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 400 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP AND NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT- OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NY/PA STATE LINE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR WELL. THIS BAND WILL MEANDER NORTH AND BRING 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT- OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN WITHOUT BENEFIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS COULD BE REACHED IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS A BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN THAN IN ROCHESTER WHERE CLOUDS MAY LAST LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AND IN THE MID LEVELS WARMING WILL COMMENCE. TO OUR WEST A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL GATHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM WITHIN THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMING ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A SIZABLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY OVERCOME...BUT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER WNY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CARRIES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS TO THEN SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR SNOW. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THERE MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MILDER AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT STILL YET TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND A SUCH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FOUND TO START THE DAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN FALLING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MILDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...THESE VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG A NEARING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW LIKELY HERE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE TUG HILL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER- LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE LAKESHORES TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS (FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND. BUFFALO... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909 ROCHESTER... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974 WATERTOWN... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997 NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. ROCHESTER WAS 33 DEGREES AT 1 AM SO IT CANNOT BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMTODAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AT 100 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP (NEARLY CLOSED OFF) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR WELL AND OTHER GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST AFTER THE LOW PASSES THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A MESSY WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... BRINGING SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINISHING AS RAIN. SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL START ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EQUATE TO LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOW 20S CLOSE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS & FLURRIES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES FALLING ANY FARTHER OVERNIGHT. INTO SUNDAY... SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP... HELPING TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY WILL QUICKLY FADE AS DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OUT OF A ROBUST WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY... A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND FRONTOGENSIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. A SECONDARY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE... AND WITH STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH A PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST COMES IN FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENT... FAIRLY DRY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO OVERSPREAD THIS DRY AIRMASS... IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THIS DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERING WITH VIRGA OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW... AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL AID IN ANY ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DYNAMICALLY COOLING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION STARTS. THUS EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT... BUT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH... WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER... KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO A COUPLE TO A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE FROM AROUND -5C AT THE START OF THE EVENT TO AROUND +5C BY MONDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH... IF ANY... FREEZING RAIN MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE... AND IN AREAS WHERE THAT AIR CAN GET TRAPPED IN VALLEYS IT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS... AS WELL AS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING. BEHIND THIS NARROW TRANSITION AREA... PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH THE ENTIRE AREA OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH IN WESTERN NY... ABOUT A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN GENESEE VALLEY... AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD... WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO M50S. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DOMINATE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ON MONDAY... BUT WITH LIGHTER INTENSITY THAN THE MORE STEADY RAIN SEEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOWEST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES... WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... HOWEVER THERE REMAINS TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ALREADY WITH TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF NOTABLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS A BAROCLINIC WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE A MUCH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MOST OF THE RAIN ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY... FOR NOW HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE 08Z TO 16Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY LOWERING TO 1-2SM IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING WITH RADAR/MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE ON TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE HERE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION. TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COMPACT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY NORTHEASTERLIES/NORTHERLIES AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER WAVES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS IMPROVING CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS (FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND. BUFFALO... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909 ROCHESTER... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974 WATERTOWN... SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997 SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989 .......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997 NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO 1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/JJR CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
909 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS A MOISTURE LIMITED CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. VERY COLD AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTN UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS NC ZONES...AND 30-35 ACROSS SC. BOTH BUFR WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WILL TAP A 40-45 KT JET...AND THIS SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 10AM THROUGH 4PM...AND ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...THE DOORS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL OPEN UP TODAY IN WAKE OF A TRANSITING DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC...AS A CLIPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FREEZE WARNING AND WATCH CONFIGURATION...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO RAISE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING OVER INLAND GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES...AND WILL ALLOW THE LUXURY OF ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO FINE TUNE THE LAY-OUT WITH REGARD TO OUR VERY SOUTHERN SC COUNTIES. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED TODAY DESPITE ISOLATED GUSTY CONDITIONS...LOCAL CRITERIA STANDS AT...31-39 MPH SUSTAINED FOR AN HOUR OR ANY GUSTS OF 46-57 MPH...AND BELIEVE WE WILL BE SHY OF THAT. THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER HOWEVER AND THIS IS DISCUSSED AT LENGTH IN THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. RECORD LOWS FOR FOR APRIL 10TH INCLUDE ILM 31 IN 2007...FLO 28 IN 1996...AND CRE 33 IN 1996. THESE RECORDS ARE VERY NEAR FORECAST VALUES FOR EARLY SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE LEADING WEATHER HEADLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL A NEAR RECORD COLD START DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A 40 DEGREE WARM UP A LITTLE OVER 30 HOURS LATER DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW AND HEAT-INDUCED CUMULUS MONDAY IN THE WARMING TREND...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE IS EXPECTED IN FAIR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES NEAR...BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES WELL OFFSHORE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE END OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL SHOOT BACK UP OVER 1.25 INCHES IN INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE INCREASED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVE. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW POST FROPA WED THROUGH FRI...GRADUALLY COMING AROUND TO THE NE. MODELS DEFINITELY SHOW SOME INCONSISTENCIES WHEN IT COMES TO MID WEEK BUT FALL BACK IN LINE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS SHORTWAVE RIDING WAY SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WINNING OUT. BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS LOW UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THURS INTO FRI WITH MORE OF A WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR WITH HIGH BUILDING DOWN FOR WED AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS ON THURS. BEST CHC OF PCP WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURS INTO FRI BUT WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FORECAST FOR NOW WITH LOW END POPS THURS INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON TUES...MID 70S MOST PLACES. POST FROPA...EXPECT COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WED THROUGH THURS BUT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN THERE IS. BETTER CHC OF CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP WED AND THURS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT BY FRI OR DEFINITELY BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 70S AGAIN. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS TO BE AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND AROUND SUNSET ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...AFTER REVIEW OF LATEST SOUNDINGS AND VWP...HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250 AND AMZ252 FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KTS THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE SCA REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE SC WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TODAY BECAUSE OF W WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NW AS COLD AIR SETS IN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE LATE TONIGHT AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL SETTLE NEARLY AS QUICKLY SO THE ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY DEPENDING ON OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VASTLY IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL EASE WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS BOTH DAYS AS WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS THE HIGH SETS OFF TO SEA. ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD WAVES OF DISTANT ORIGIN ARE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT SPECTRAL BULLETINS AT FRYING PAN. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH UP TO 15 KTS. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO KICK SEAS UP A BIT...FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY TUES UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TUES NIGHT. ONCE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES NIGHT...WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH...VEERING TO THE N-NE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP A LITTLE FURTHER...UP TO 4 TO 5 FT. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING W-NW WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NORTH CAROLINA FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM...WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. ALTHOUGH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILARLY DANGEROUS TO FIRES ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FUEL MOISTURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED RATHER THAN AN RFW. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA FOR TODAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-053. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ039-055. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>107-109. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MJC/JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RAN MARINE...MJC/JDW/RGZ FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 BUMPED UP WIND GRIDS A BIT MORE AS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ABOVE EXPECTED...BUT THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AND SHOULD NOT HAVE TO UPGRADE. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR WESTERN TIER...AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT VALUES FIRE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THINK THAT RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT SO WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN SOCIAL MEDIA AND HWO AND LEAVE OUT ANY RED FLAGS FOR NOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY. OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE. COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY BY TUE MORNING. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...TO THE TUNE OF AROUND 2500 FT. MET GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AS LOW AS 1000-2000 FT...BUT NAM BUFR AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE A MOS CATEGORY OR TWO HIGHER. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS STILL ON HOW LOW OF CIGS WITH THE FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35 PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES AVIATION...KNUTSVIG FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SURFACE E LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF REGINA SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO AROUND GLASGOW AND BILLINGS IN EASTERN MONTANA. ALONG THE TROUGH IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND HUMIDITIES ARE DROPPING WITH BEACH AND MEDORA FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AT 11 AM MDT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. FARTHER NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE AND AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY AND WE WILL SEE IF LOW TO MID 30 DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM LOWER AS WE MIX OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. IF NOT WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. CERTAINLY WILL KEEP IT GOING CENTRAL AND SOUTH. STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR OVER THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT A WHILE BUT WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS POSTED AFTER 1 PM. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO A MIX OF HRRR/PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY UNDER-PERFORMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC. RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC... AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA. WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 A COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KISN TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT KDIK BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 20Z-22Z...AND AT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...TWH FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY UNDER-PERFOMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC. RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC... AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA. WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021- 031>034-040>044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...TWH FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY. OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE. COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY BY TUE MORNING. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR AND KTVF...WITH LESS EFFECTS AT KBJI. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE DAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO KDVL AROUND 03Z-06Z SUN AND KGFK/KFAR AROUND 06-09Z...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT THESE NW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL BUT EITHER WAY VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016 WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35 PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES AVIATION...GODON FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC. RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC... AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA. WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021- 031>034-040>044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...JV FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA. WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOME AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK...AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 26 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021- 031>034-040>044. WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035- 042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...JV FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
808 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C OVER THE AREA AT 850MB. ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE TO YNG. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS. DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6 TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HEAVY SNOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAK/YNG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT SITES IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...MAINLY 14-18Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE IN THE 22- 00Z WINDOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KEC MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C OVER THE AREA AT 850MB. ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE TO YNG. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS. DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6 TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE TO YNG. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS. DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6 TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Convection will develop and expand this evening across NE OK with further development eastward and southward overnight. Flight conditions will generally be impacted by both lowering overnight ceilings and with expanding coverage of heavier convection. Widespread MVFR to periodic IFR conditions can be expected into Monday morning...with a gradual improving trend from north to south during the day Monday as convection shifts southward. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION... Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from eastern KS into the OK panhandle...with dryline into northwestern OK southward into the TX panhandle. Some convection has fired near the dryline across the TX panhandle over the past 1-2 hours...and latest HRRR output suggests that some of this activity will make a run east toward our forecast area during the evening hours. Also anticipating an increase in convection along the front across southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and backs. While the southern activity may have a tendency to weaken with time as it tracks east...clusters of storms associated with the front will impact parts of northeast OK and eventually northwest AR later tonight...with large hail/strong winds/heavy rainfall being the main threat. With the approach of a triple-point low...the severe weather threat will transition into southeast OK/western AR Monday afternoon. At least modest afternoon heating will mixed-layer CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg in the smallish warm sector...and any backed low-level flow ahead of triple-point will enhance the tornado threat. This activity will shift east with time...with the severe threat diminishing toward midnight. Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid- week...although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of the better moisture south of the forecast area. A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend...with shower/thunderstorm chances increasing especially in the latter half of the weekend. The extended models are still struggling with how this system evolves/ejects east...so will continue to keep pops in the chance category. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 69 40 65 / 90 60 10 0 FSM 64 76 46 66 / 30 80 60 0 MLC 66 72 47 67 / 50 60 20 0 BVO 56 64 36 64 / 90 60 10 0 FYV 60 66 40 61 / 70 80 50 0 BYV 59 62 38 61 / 80 80 50 0 MKO 63 70 41 65 / 70 70 20 0 MIO 57 63 37 62 / 90 80 20 0 F10 63 70 43 65 / 60 60 10 0 HHW 65 76 51 67 / 30 60 20 0 && .TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF RAIN IS STAYING FURTHER SOUTH SO FAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OK THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. IF THIS DOES OCCUR... A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JUST BE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE... ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NW OK THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... 09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AVIATION... MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. KURTZ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA... CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN... FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH 800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN... MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60 HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 71 56 85 56 / 30 10 10 40 GAGE OK 73 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50 PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80 DURANT OK 73 58 78 64 / 40 20 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... 09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AVIATION... MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. KURTZ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA... CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN... FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH 800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN... MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60 HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40 GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50 PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80 DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... 09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... && .AVIATION... MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. KURTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA... CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN... FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH 800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN... MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60 HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40 GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50 PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80 DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA... CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN... FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH 800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST... RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN... MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. KURTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60 HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40 GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50 PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80 DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR AT 02Z SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST VIRGA. EARLIER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ICING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS SFC TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMTS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES BY 12Z. NATIONALBLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS CONTINUING...AS LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PA. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS IS ALOFT WITH NOTHING NOTED IN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT STEADY PRECIP TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AND THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50KT. MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF RAIN. OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. WED-FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT GEFS ENSEMBLES...AND MID RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GEFS HAS ONE TO TWO PWAT ANOMALIES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION 06Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THAT BOUNDARY ARE HOW MUCH QPF AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED QPFS BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE NW MTNS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AND MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ONLY BE FREEZING OR LOWER ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER. SO GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST. THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. LATEST GUIDANCE ON THIS FRONT REMAIN CONSISTENT...THOUGH EC HAS A SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF REMAINS HIGHER PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPFS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH THROUGH THE NW MTNS FOR SNOWFALL...THOUGH GIVEN SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE MIXED...AND WET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRING IN THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN AROUND THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN. WED-THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRINGIN THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN AROUND THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN. WED-THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
809 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/12Z TAFS THROUGH 10/12Z | ISSUED 755 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENEWD FROM SOUTHEAST PA TO OFFSHORE THE NJ COAST. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAS FOSTERED A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK. DRY-AIR SLOT SHOULD KEEP JST/AOO ABOVE IFR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHSN WRAP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MID DAY. PERSISTENCE FCST AT BFD/IPT WITH SOLID IFR OR LOWER THRU 16Z. EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR/LIFR STILL IN QUESTION INVOF MDT/LNS AS PCPN EXPANDS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE NJ COAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS FROM 360-330 BEHIND THE LOW WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 525 AM EDT 4/9/16 09Z UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAFS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/HIRES MODELS AND SFC TEMPS. EXPECT STEADIEST SNOW AND LONGER DURATION OF IFR VIS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. DRYSLOT SHOULD LIMIT IFR AT AOO AND PERHAPS UNV AND HIRES GUIDANCE BREAKS UP SECOND AREA OF SNOW PIVOTING NW OF SFC LOW TRACK. RISING SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS SUGGESTS RA/SN MIX AND IMPROVED VIS BUT HEAVIER PCPN RATES MAY FAVOR SN PTYPE AND IFR VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE AMD/S AS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. PREVIOUS...SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW /ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN TODAY. HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76 CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND KHZL. 88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL THIS MORNING. FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 66 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041- 046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC. THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z. SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY 12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX. SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041- 046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC. THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z. SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY 12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS. ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING. HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z. HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI. TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WINDS HAVE DIMINSHED TO GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN SN. STRONG WINDS BECOME A CONCERN LATER SATURDAY AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLSN BEING AN ISSUE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND BRAKING ACTION. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY SAT NGT-SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS/BCMG VFR. DECREASING WINDS. SUN NGT-AM MON...RAIN/MIX PSBL NRN AIRSPACE. MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR. TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX. WED...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-046-049>053-057>059-066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012- 018-019-045. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ006-011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK. CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS. SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND 6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS LOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S DAILY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 71 85 68 80 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 VICTORIA 70 82 64 81 65 / 40 40 10 10 50 LAREDO 69 93 68 84 68 / 50 0 10 20 50 ALICE 70 90 67 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 50 ROCKPORT 71 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 COTULLA 67 91 63 81 65 / 50 10 10 20 50 KINGSVILLE 71 89 69 82 70 / 40 20 10 10 50 NAVY CORPUS 71 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .UPDATE... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATED LIFT OVER A REGION OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE FWD 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD ANY STORMS REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA-WIDE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IF A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOTION OF THIS COMPLEX WOULD STILL BE PRIMARILY EAST/NORTHEAST...THEREFORE KEEPING IT LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR SAN ANGELO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD EASTWARD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. STALLEY && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A KSNK /SNYDER/ TO KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WEST OF A KMAF /MIDLAND/ TO KDRT /DEL RIO/ LINE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OF THE COMPUTER MODELS /THE HRRR/ IS INDICATING THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS STORMS MOVES NORTHEAST...SOME SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES OF STORMS AT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 03Z AT WACO AND 05Z FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD THEN STICK AROUND UNTIL 16-18Z MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FEATURE HAS ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY MIXING...THUS IT HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN 700MB THRUST HAS BEEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTH TEXAS. OUR AREA OF CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SUNNY BIG COUNTRY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000J/KG. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY. THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL REMAIN OPEN THROUGH SUNSET...AND ANY CELLS THAT FORM WILL TRACK THROUGH A SIMILARLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO BOWIE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHILE THIS WOULD PRECLUDE THE WIND THREAT...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STORMS THIS EVENING. AS 850MB WINDS REACH 50KTS LATE TONIGHT... ADDITIONAL ELEVATED...ALBEIT LIKELY NON-SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE ENTERING OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG ITS PATH...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURGING DRYLINE PEELS UP A BUOYANT SURFACE LAYER. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE MORE RAPID PROGRESS NORTH OF I-20...WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT...A STUBBORN CAP MAY PERSIST...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER ON THE HUMID SIDE...DIMINISHING THE NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER IN FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE STORM CHANCES. A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER WILL ENSUE...AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL REGIONWIDE. A RAIN-FREE INTERLUDE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 82 52 70 53 / 20 20 5 5 30 WACO 67 84 52 71 52 / 30 20 5 10 40 PARIS 66 79 51 68 47 / 20 60 20 5 20 DENTON 66 80 48 68 48 / 20 20 5 5 30 MCKINNEY 67 79 49 69 49 / 20 30 10 5 20 DALLAS 68 82 54 70 53 / 20 30 5 5 30 TERRELL 68 81 52 70 51 / 20 30 20 5 30 CORSICANA 68 83 54 70 53 / 30 30 10 10 30 TEMPLE 67 84 53 72 54 / 30 20 5 10 50 MINERAL WELLS 64 81 47 68 50 / 30 10 5 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. && .UPDATED DISCUSSION... ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW 00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500 J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY. GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/ BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND 10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL DECREASING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 86 58 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 85 57 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 57 76 60 / 50 20 - 10 60 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 85 54 72 56 / 30 10 - 10 60 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 88 58 78 62 / 70 0 - 20 60 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 56 73 56 / 30 20 - 10 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 57 78 61 / 70 10 - 20 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 57 76 59 / 50 20 - 10 60 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 61 76 61 / 50 40 10 10 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 86 58 77 61 / 50 20 - 20 60 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 20 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK. CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT. && .MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS. SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND 6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS LOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S DAILY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50 VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50 LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50 ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50 ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 70 10 10 20 50 KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50 NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS. SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND 6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS LOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S DAILY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50 VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50 LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50 ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50 ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 70 10 10 20 50 KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50 NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RH/79...AVIATION
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&& .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE AT KAUS THROUGH 19Z...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...STUBBORN IFR CIGS AT KDRT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY INTO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND SUSPECT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-07Z ACROSS MOST SITES. CIGS SHOULD ALSO MANAGE TO DIP INTO IFR AT KSAT AND KDRT AFTER 09Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ MESOSCALE UPDATE... A 700MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE MOMENT WHICH IS SERVING TO PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL FOCUSED LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. ECHO TOPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KFT AND ARE VERY TILTED...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR UPDRAFTS TO REACH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE 700 MB SHORTWAVE AS IT EXITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WHILE AT THE LOW LEVELS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POP CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND KEEPING SLIGHT AND LOW END CHC POPS GOING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE AUSTIN AREA AND NORTHEAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS. UPWARD FORCING GENERATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL CAPE AND A CAPPING INVERSION INDICATES ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLAR HEATING ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW POSSIBLY TAKING THEM INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST OPENS UP THIS WEEKEND AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. UPWARD FORCING REDEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPWARD FORCING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY. MODERATE CAPE AND A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION INDICATE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS AND SPC HAS AREAS EAST OF A LEXINGTON TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BREAKS OFF BY MONDAY AND APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY AND MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. UPWARD FORCING AGAIN DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG UPWARD FORCING GENERATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS FORECAST...NEXT WEEKEND...THE REMAINDER OF THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 64 80 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 61 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 63 81 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 79 66 87 / 40 10 10 20 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 63 85 65 91 / 20 10 10 20 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 63 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 81 66 89 / 20 10 10 20 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 79 67 86 / 40 10 10 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 63 80 70 83 / 40 10 10 20 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 63 80 67 88 / 40 10 10 20 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 64 81 68 88 / 40 10 10 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 Issued by National Weather Service Midland TX .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Morning showers and thunderstorms moving east are nearly out of the area and will likely not affect any terminals the rest of today. A few sites will hold MVFR ceilings into the early afternoon before VFR ceilings prevail heading into tonight. Forecast is dry through this TAF period, but MVFR ceilings make a return after 06Z tonight for most TAF sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after midnight and continue through sunrise. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing the convection shifts out of the area. After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures up with overnight lows around 60 degrees. LONG TERM... (Sunday through Sunday Night) There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather will remain north of our area as better instability resides over Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. (Monday through Saturday) Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 85 61 83 / 10 10 30 5 San Angelo 60 85 60 82 / 10 20 30 0 Junction 60 81 64 87 / 10 10 20 5 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AT RGV TERMINALS IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING OUT TOWARD THE EAST ATTM. MOS GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS VERY WELL AT ALL. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. SE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO BREEZY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH AS TRANSIENT UPR RIDGE FORMS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ENDING BY MID-MORNING...IF NOT BEFORE...AS DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TIMING HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND INHERITED GRIDS REFLECT THIS QUITE WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO POP/WX. SERLY BREEZES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK H5 RIDGING MOVES IN...WITH LOW TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE CWFA. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...SO WINDS COULD STAY LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS MID-LVL FLOW BACKS TO MORE WSW. WESTERN STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES F IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SERLY WINDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COURTESY OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A WEST- SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST 500 MB FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RELATIVELY DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NO MAJOR COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL ENSURE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SCEC-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY FOR GULF WATERS TODAY. CURRENT SEAS OF AROUND 3FT WILL BUILD TO NR 6FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN NR THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIKELY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-SCHROEDER/66
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after midnight and continue through sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing the convection shifts out of the area. After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures up with overnight lows around 60 degrees. LONG TERM... (Sunday through Sunday Night) There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather will remain north of our area as better instability resides over Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. (Monday through Saturday) Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30 San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30 Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .AVIATION... VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE MAINLY TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN AREA OF SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MAY HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ DISCUSSION... A WEAK S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY BELOW 700 MB SO SOME/MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TODAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AS PRESSURES OVER WEST TEXAS START TO DROP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. 850-700 LAYER WINDS BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MSTR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BENEATH THE INVERSION AND CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING BENEATH THE CAP. WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STREAMER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.20-1.30 INCHES AND THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP DEEPENS TO 850 MB. THE CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS RATHER STOUT ON MONDAY MORNING BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ERODE THE CAP BY 18Z. 850-700 MB WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE CAP WILL ACTUALLY ERODE. THAT SAID...THERE IS A WEAK S/WV THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE AFTN AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE CAP...BUT JUST NOT SURE IF THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE CAP THIS FAR SOUTH. IF THE CAP ERODES...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OVER THE NORTH (NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE) INCLUDE CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...LI`S OF -9...SWEAT INDEX OF 370 AND TT`S OF 52-55. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX IN MARGINAL RISK FOR MONDAY. THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO ERODE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-10. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MON NITE INTO TUES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT LIMITED MSTR AND A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SO CALIF EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OCCURING ON WEDNESDAY. JET DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL INDUCE A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.70-1.80 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DEEP MSTR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FAVORS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL TROUGH EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A SFC LOW AND PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THU/FRI. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES NEXT SAT OR SUN. 43 MARINE... A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE STATE AND ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF FREEPORT AND BEYOND 20 NM MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THIS SAME PATTERN OF DAYTIME CAUTION AND NIGHTTIME ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 40 FIRE... IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AND RETURN GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. STILL...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. GIVEN THAT SOME MIXING MAY OCCUR...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IF THE WINDS PICKUP MORE THAN THE EXPECTED 5 TO 10 MPH. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 59 80 68 81 / 20 10 10 20 50 HOUSTON (IAH) 80 63 80 69 81 / 20 10 10 20 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 74 68 76 71 77 / 20 10 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after midnight and continue through sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing the convection shifts out of the area. After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures up with overnight lows around 60 degrees. LONG TERM... (Sunday through Sunday Night) There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather will remain north of our area as better instability resides over Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. (Monday through Saturday) Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30 San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30 Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO EAST AND BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SUNDAY THE HIGHEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A FAIRLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THIS CAP SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. TODAY A BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TOMORROW LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND THEN SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER MEXICO COULD MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE DRY LINE WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE VCT AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-1.75 INCHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE INTACT THAN THE GFS AS IT KICKS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REACH WESTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA...COULD SEE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY NIGHT MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 68 80 72 85 / 30 10 10 20 20 VICTORIA 79 64 79 70 84 / 20 10 20 20 40 LAREDO 84 66 89 70 94 / 30 10 10 20 0 ALICE 82 65 84 70 91 / 30 10 10 20 20 ROCKPORT 78 69 77 71 81 / 20 10 20 20 20 COTULLA 82 65 87 68 92 / 30 10 10 20 10 KINGSVILLE 81 67 83 71 88 / 30 10 10 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 77 69 77 72 82 / 30 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LK/84...SHORT TERM TMT/89...LONG TERM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing the convection shifts out of the area. After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures up with overnight lows around 60 degrees. .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Sunday Night) There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather will remain north of our area as better instability resides over Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. (Monday through Saturday) Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30 San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30 Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20 && .SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CEILINGS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...APART FROM JET-STREAM CIRRUS AND DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LRD AREA. MOS GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL DVLP AROUND 07-08Z AT THE TERMINALS...SO WILL PUSH IT OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO AROUND 20KT SUSTAINED. MVFR CIGS AGAIN POISED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT MFE WHERE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP LATER DUE TO A LOW-LVL JET AND KEEP CIG ABOVE 3KFT AGL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING 1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY. WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW... ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW. DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY SUNSET SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
942 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. AFTER THESE SHOWERS PULL OUT MONDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY... RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... AND EVEN A BIT WARMER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLE WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL TIME DOWN A BIT. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND EVEN MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. ONLY THE NAM OFFERS A SMALL AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO SMALL...LI AROUND -0.25 AND CAPE AT MOST 200 J/KG...FOR THUNDER CONCERNS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AN AVERAGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE AND ONE- HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL DIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY...A DEEP LOW/TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE COAST OF VA/NC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE ONE CATCH IS THAT GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF VA/NC TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE COAST. AS IT DOES THIS...UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BITS OF ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SWING INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES...PLUS OR MINUS...OF NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 702 PM EDT SUNDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS COMBINING WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING SO CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS REMAIN VFR. EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND TRAVERSES THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT EXCEPT UP NORTH (LWB) WHERE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETTER. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND USE P6SM -SHRA AT KBLF/KLWB TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT PRECIPIATION THIS EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING PROGRESS ON MONDAY. SO AFTER THE INITIAL SCATTERED SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR CIGS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNNING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY START TO LOWER CIGS AND GENERATE SOME SHOWERS BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS WILL BE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KBLF WHERE A FAVORED SWLY DIRECTION TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON MONDAY ALL SITES WILL START TO SEE GUSTS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE BRISK. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... AS THE APPROACHING FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME SUB-VFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN THE PIEDMONT FOR A WHILE. THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN VA/MD WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK NEITHER ARE ANY STRONG WINDS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY... NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES IN PLACE. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM...FOLLOWED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT WEST AT NOON. MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LITTLE BLEED OVER TO THE EAST. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TODAY WILL ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUT THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 60MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT GUSTS NEAR 50MPH ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FURTHER EAST. PREVIOUS AFD... A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL. AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING VEGETATION. WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS. STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY... AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY... FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY... DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY 04/09/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 18 1972 32 1985 KDAN 26 1972 44 2003 KLYH 24 2007 38 1927 KROA 22 1972 38 1927 KRNK 17 1972 36 1956 SUNDAY 04/10/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 20 1997 35 1960 KDAN 25 1985 44 2003 KLYH 20 1985 41 1894 KROA 20 1985 41 1918 KRNK 16 1985 37 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014- 016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047- 058-059. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019- 020. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002- 018. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006- 020. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RAB FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY... A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL. AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING VEGETATION. WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS. STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT AREA AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY... AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY... FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY... DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY 04/09/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 18 1972 32 1985 KDAN 26 1972 44 2003 KLYH 24 2007 38 1927 KROA 22 1972 38 1927 KRNK 17 1972 36 1956 SUNDAY 04/10/2016 SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR KBLF 20 1997 35 1960 KDAN 25 1985 44 2003 KLYH 20 1985 41 1894 KROA 20 1985 41 1918 KRNK 16 1985 37 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014- 016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047- 058-059. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019- 020. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002- 018. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006- 020. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507- 508. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...AMS/RAB SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RAB FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALL QUIET ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS OVER THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE. AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NE...A REMNANT MESOSCALE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL DROP SE INTO CENTRAL TO SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTH AND SW TOWARDS TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHR TO SEE AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NW BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO AR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP SE OVER AR. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FRONT WILL THEN BE WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING AS DRIER...MORES STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE CALMER...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION... WHILE AN UPPER SHORT MOVES ACROSS AR. CURRENT MODELS DO INDICATED A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SLOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME DO TO UNCERTAINTY. ON SATURDAY...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE FORECAST WILL STAY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF AR. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS PUT INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND OF A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 71 44 62 40 / 80 60 10 0 CAMDEN AR 77 52 67 47 / 80 80 0 10 HARRISON AR 68 39 60 37 / 80 40 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 72 51 64 45 / 80 80 0 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 72 49 64 43 / 80 80 0 10 MONTICELLO AR 75 52 66 46 / 80 80 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 73 50 65 44 / 80 80 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 41 62 38 / 80 40 0 0 NEWPORT AR 70 44 62 39 / 80 60 10 0 PINE BLUFF AR 73 50 64 44 / 80 80 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 48 65 43 / 80 60 0 10 SEARCY AR 69 47 62 40 / 80 70 10 0 STUTTGART AR 72 48 63 42 / 80 80 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SUN APR 10 2016 && .SYNOPSIS... A PACIFIC STORM...THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... A VIGOROUS AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO TREK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BY 8 PM THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAD TRANSLATED INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL AZ...AND WAS APPROACHING THE GLOBE AREA. WEAK AND FLAT RIDGING WITH MODEST SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN DESERTS...BUT SO FAR HAD NOT RESULTED IN MUCH CLEARING AS THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA/SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING SUNSET AND THE LOW CENTER MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE STABLE...AND THE DVV SPREADING IN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS OF 830 PM. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...UNDER WEAK RIDGING...WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF RAIN. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT AND MONDAY... THE RATHER MOIST...AND COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS IN THE -17C TO -18C RANGE) WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN ONCE THE MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ALMOST AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR REGION TODAY...RAINFALL CHANCES APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LESS THAN THE WITH THE CURRENT ONE...SINCE THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THAT THE CURRENT ONE HAS...AS INDICATED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GEFS/GFS IVT FORECAST GRAPHICS. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. SATURDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH...MAY ADD A VCSH MENTION SOMETIME AFTER 20Z IN THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL SEE ABOUT THAT. FEEL THAT CIGS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 6K FEET FOR THE MOST PART AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT VARIOUS MODEL RH/UVV CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE LINGERING CIGS 5-7K FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES REMAIN QUITE HIGH. THE LOW DECKS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE ON THE FEW-SCT SIDE BUT CIGS MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. ALSO...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES BY THE SOUTH...CIGS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE DESERTS...AND COULD DROP AS LOW AS 5K FEET ONCE AGAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DIURNAL WINDS...FAVORING THE EAST LESS THAN 10KT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND VEERING BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL...AS ANOTHER LOW SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. CIGS SHOULD GENLY STAY AOA 8K FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MOST LOWER CLOUD DECKS MAINLY FEW-SCT...BUT COULD SEE CIGS START TO REDEVELOP FROM 6-8K FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS...FAVORING THE WEST AT KIPL AND THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 80S...OR EVEN CLOSE TO 90...A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SE-WARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AZ...AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 15- 25 PERCENT RANGE REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WIDEN INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OVER SE CA AND SW AZ. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD- EXCELLENT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
THAT WILL FOLLOW IN LATER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING INTO THE THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER SE CA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING OVER CENTRAL CA. THE DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPIS THIS EVENING. THUS ANY STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL BE IN A COL AN AREA OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN CA. HIGH PWAT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 8000 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLDER GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS IT REACHING THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TREND IS A DRIER SCENARIO THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH AND MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE FROM WINDS THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 15Z MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 19Z MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MV PUBLIC...DURFEE AVN/FW...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...DURFEE WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 940 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016 .Synopsis... Mountain showers will continue early this week with another round of showers over the entire area around mid week. && .Discussion... Showers diminishing this evening as they drop southwest from the Sierra. Only isolated showers the rest of the night...mainly over the mountains. Otherwise...skies will remain mostly cloudy with light winds. Current forecast is on track and no evening update will be needed. .Previous Discussion... Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to move east. An area of thunderstorms over Lassen County is moving southwest and may impact Plumas and Shasta Counties later this afternoon and evening. Snow level will continue to be high and near 8000 feet but may lower to near 7000 in heavier convection. the HRRR indicates a good chance that showers will spread west and into the north end of the valley this evening. Conditions over the southern half of the CWA should mostly be dry but could see some isolated showers and sprinkles. A low along 135W will get sheared apart as it moves towards Northern California. The southern end will form a low over Southern California on Monday and help to continue to produce showers over the northern end of the state...mostly over the mountains. On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may provide enough moisture and instability to bring some showers to the far northern end of the State and the north end of the valley and surrounding mountains. A colder low pressure system will begin to moving into the northern end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall below major pass levels with this system and result in travel impacts. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday) Colder system will continue to move across NorCal on Thursday with precipitation across most of the area. Models still indicate heaviest precipitation will fall over the mountains with snow levels down to around 4000-4500 feet. This will likely cause travel impacts through the day Thursday. System begins to shift east Thursday night into Friday with only a few lingering mountain showers. Ridging will then build in across the state with drier weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the weekend. Valley temperatures may be back into the 80s by Saturday. This pattern also lends itself to some breezy northerly winds across the Coastal Range and western side of the Valley. Have removed precip chances from late Saturday into Sunday as it looks like models have backed off on the next wave which will still be out over the Pacific into early next week. CEO && .AVIATION... Scattered rain showers through late this evening, especially across the NorCal mountains and northern Sacramento Valley. MVFR/IFR low clouds may continue across Valley TAF sites into Monday. South winds will remain 10 kts or less. Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS. MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS MORNING. S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. THUS...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES... GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT UPPER 40S NYC METRO. S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NW. INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE. THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH PERSISTENT SSW WINDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET. IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1 INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S. A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION. CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS. MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS MORNING. S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... ADJUSTED TIMING OF SCA ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO START MON MORNING. SLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON NGT. WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
518 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE I-95 WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY PERIODS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH. SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.8 TODAY. FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS. I DID RAISE POPS TONIGHT IN THIS 630 AM FCST UPDATE AND THE WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN` I-95 NWWD LATE TONIGHT WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.2 INCHES, A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES, WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW 40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S., THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY. WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN MDT SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. && .MARINE... SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...DRAG 517A SHORT TERM...DRAG 517A LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK, AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH. FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES, WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW 40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S., THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY. WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. && .MARINE... SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...DRAG SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFFSHORE. THIS LOW MAY EVENTUALLY BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK, AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH. FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SLOWLY AS WELL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL REGION- WIDE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A OMEGA BLOCK IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VARIOUS SYSTEMS BEING STUBBORN TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST 24 HOURS MODELING AND TO SOME EXTENT VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER OR BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE END RESULTS WOULD BE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, INCREASED CLOUDS, COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN THE LARGER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN WE`RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, ADDITIONAL CHANGES WITH MODEL DATA WILL STILL OCCUR. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY: VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .MARINE... SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY: SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 25-30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE DAY BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE ALSO FROM FIVE TO SEVEN FEET CURRENTLY MODELED. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NOT MUCH OF A LULL MAY OCCUR BETWEEN WHEN THE FRONT THAT LED TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS TUESDAY MOVES EAST AND A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY RAMP-UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND OVER 25 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY GET CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 251 SHORT TERM...DRAG 251 LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 251 MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 251 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain. Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today, the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop, which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016 Little change in thinking from previous forecast. A period of VLIFR conditions can be expected over parts of the TAF area late tonight into the early morning hours due to low clouds and fog just ahead of the cold front, which at this hour was just west of PIA. Once the front shifts east of the area, we expect improving conditions to work their way from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours. VFR conditions should begin to affect the PIA area around 10z and by 16z in our far eastern TAF site, CMI. Rain with isold TSRA can be expected mainly south of a SPI to CMI line over the next few hours just ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, as the front settles southeast across the state, we expect precip chances to decrease from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours. Light south to southwest winds ahead of the cold front will become northwest to north after the frontal passage later tonight with speeds on Monday ranging from 10 to 15 kts with a few afternoon gusts around 20 kts at times before diminishing quickly around 00z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/ ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES. WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER. .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON. WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S. CUTOFF LOW. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 COLD FRONT PASSING INTO NORTHERN IOWA NOW WILL INCREASE NW WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE AFT 14Z WITH GUSTS 15-30 KTS OVER NORTHERN SITES KALO/KMCW. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...ZOGG AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S (SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED. THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST 1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS RAIN...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES...HOWEVER EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS DEW POINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE TEENS. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW FOR A PTYPE LATER TONIGHT...WITH EVEN THE LATEST HRRR BRINGING IN JUST A COUPLE PIXELS OF FZRA TO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL MONITOR FOR FREEZING PCPN VERY CLOSELY AND MOST LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR ANY SMALL AREA THAT DEVELOPS. MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THIS PRECIP IN AROUND 09Z...HOWEVER SUBLIMATION COULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END. PREV DISC... 925 PM UPDATE: WAA OVERUNNING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. SO ALTHOUGH RADAR SHOWING PCPN SPREADING ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO VERMONT...IT APPEARS THIS IS PRIMARILY ALOFT. AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO STURATE THE LOWER LEVELS SO OVERALL TIMING OF ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NH ALTHOUGH BUMPED UP THE LOW POPS OVER WESTERN NH A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN CASE A FEW FLURRIES MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THOSE DRY LOWER LAYERS A LITTLE SOONER THAN ADVERTISED. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN TOLERANCE OF FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS DATA. 615 PM UPDATE...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. WAA HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE EVENING WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A WAA PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...IF WINDS GO CALM QUICK ENOUGH...SOME SPOTS MAY RADIATE PRETTY WELL. FOR THIS REASON I BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE THE COLDER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE CT RIVER BY 4 OR 5 AM. THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NH AND ADJACENT WESTERN ME BY 8 AM OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL NH WHERE IT WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IF ANYTHING FALLS AT ALL THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINE EARLY AND MID MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS BEFORE LIGHT RAIN TAKES OVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NH...AND PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE TRACE AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIKELY OFFER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THEREFORE...NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE DAY FOR ALL. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN MONDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS IN PLACE DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL DELIVER ONE MORE COLD SHOT TO THE AREA MID WEEK BEFORE RISING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING BLOCK BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY... MODELS TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHIFTED THE BLOCK A BIT FURTHER WEST...LEAVING THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED LOW VERSUS THE PREFERRED UPPER RIDGE. THIS CHANGE HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE DAILIES...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT IS NOW SLOWER TO EXIT THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...AND IT`S POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE WEST WITH CLOUDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SPELL AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WESTERN NH WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MAY OCCUR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY LIGHT LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT MONDAY. LOWERING CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR MONDAY NIGHT IN RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG. LONG TERM... TUE -WED AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB. THU...SCT MVFR PSB IN SHRA. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT. FRI......AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ALLOWS FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS WELL. LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... TUE...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE THE BAYS. WED...SMALL CRAFT COND ARE PSB. THU - FRI...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE THE BAYS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WATERS AND WAVES BUILDING...THE 330 AM HIGH TIDE TUESDAY /10.9 FT MLLW AT PORTLAND/ MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ151. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC... ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI. SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM THE SFC LOW. MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE. AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER MI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH. ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST. WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT 60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/- DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700 MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH. ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST. WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT 60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/- DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700 MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OPERATING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT 700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY. THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE OVERCAST SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF KOGA TO KLBF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. SKIES WILL GRADUALL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR 08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80 KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS 14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z. STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS. ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS... FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY. COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES WEST TO EAST. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/11/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
4106 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR 08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80 KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS 14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z. STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS. ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS... FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY. COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES WEST TO EAST. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/11/16 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
236 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS AT 06Z SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. RETURNS FURTHER EAST TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY ARE MAINLY ALOFT AS THE PRECIP STRUGGLES TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THE LLVL 15-20 T/TD SPREADS. EXPECT THE LLVLS TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN-UP AND COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MUCH OF THE REGION SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR COULD STAY MAINLY DRY AFTER 14Z. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WERE REACHED SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BY ANOTHER 4 OR 5F AS THE RAIN INITIALLY EVAPORATES IN/COOLS THE DRY LLVLS. NATIONAL BLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. 2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ...AND 1-2 SIGMA PWAT AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS RAINFL RANGING FROM NEARLY 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER TODAY AS THE 2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA. 18Z/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16 EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2. BCMG VFR. WED-FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR AT 02Z SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST VIRGA. EARLIER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ICING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS SFC TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMTS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES BY 12Z. NATIONALBLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS CONTINUING...AS LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PA. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16 EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2. BCMG VFR. WED-FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED! DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/ AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD /BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND 02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10 WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30 PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10 DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10 MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10 DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10 TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10 CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30 TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30 MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 10 10 10 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DRG THE MID MORNING HOURS MONDAY. ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTN GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 281. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CEILINGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...AS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SVR WATCH 81 IS CANCELLED FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. NOTHING TO NOTE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. IF ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS CAP CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. MAY ADJUST POPS ONE MORE TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK. CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS. SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND 6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS LOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S DAILY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 85 68 80 70 78 / 30 10 10 50 60 VICTORIA 82 64 81 65 73 / 40 10 10 50 70 LAREDO 93 68 84 68 81 / 0 10 20 50 30 ALICE 90 67 83 69 78 / 20 10 10 50 60 ROCKPORT 78 68 76 70 75 / 30 10 10 50 70 COTULLA 91 63 81 65 76 / 10 10 20 50 50 KINGSVILLE 89 69 82 70 80 / 20 10 10 50 60 NAVY CORPUS 79 69 76 71 76 / 30 10 10 50 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/ CONVECTION NOW EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS AND ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR LESS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST AS THINKING IS THAT ALL RAIN WILL END BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE ONSET OF THE MVFR/IFR CIGS. THINKING CURRENTLY THAT I-35 TERMINALS WILL BEGIN WITH MVFR CIGS OR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 07Z. KDRT LIKELY WILL NOT SEE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 09Z. THEN AROUND 08Z I-35 SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE IFR CIGS AND IFR CIG WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AT KDRT. BY 06Z-19Z ALL LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR. CURRENT FORECAST ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS RETURN 12/05Z-06 FOR THE 30 HOUR FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10-15 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS BECOME S/SW 10-15 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE W/NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE I-35 SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ UPDATE... THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. UPDATED DISCUSSION... ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW 00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500 J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY. GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/ BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND 10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL DECREASING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 75 58 68 54 / - 10 60 70 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 75 58 68 52 / - 10 60 70 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 60 70 54 / - 10 60 70 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 72 56 67 52 / - 10 60 60 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 78 62 76 58 / - 20 60 30 - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 73 56 67 52 / - 10 50 60 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 61 71 54 / - 20 60 60 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 59 69 54 / - 10 60 70 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 76 61 69 55 / 10 10 50 70 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 77 61 70 56 / - 20 60 70 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 78 63 71 57 / - 20 60 70 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .AVIATION... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/ AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD /BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND 02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 58 && .UPDATE... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATED LIFT OVER A REGION OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE FWD 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD ANY STORMS REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA-WIDE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IF A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOTION OF THIS COMPLEX WOULD STILL BE PRIMARILY EAST/NORTHEAST...THEREFORE KEEPING IT LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR SAN ANGELO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD EASTWARD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. STALLEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FEATURE HAS ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY MIXING...THUS IT HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN 700MB THRUST HAS BEEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTH TEXAS. OUR AREA OF CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SUNNY BIG COUNTRY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000J/KG. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY. THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL REMAIN OPEN THROUGH SUNSET...AND ANY CELLS THAT FORM WILL TRACK THROUGH A SIMILARLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO BOWIE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHILE THIS WOULD PRECLUDE THE WIND THREAT...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STORMS THIS EVENING. AS 850MB WINDS REACH 50KTS LATE TONIGHT... ADDITIONAL ELEVATED...ALBEIT LIKELY NON-SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE ENTERING OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG ITS PATH...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURGING DRYLINE PEELS UP A BUOYANT SURFACE LAYER. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE MORE RAPID PROGRESS NORTH OF I-20...WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT...A STUBBORN CAP MAY PERSIST...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER ON THE HUMID SIDE...DIMINISHING THE NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER IN FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE STORM CHANCES. A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER WILL ENSUE...AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL REGIONWIDE. A RAIN-FREE INTERLUDE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 82 52 70 53 / 20 20 5 5 30 WACO 67 84 52 71 52 / 30 20 5 10 40 PARIS 66 79 51 68 47 / 20 60 20 5 20 DENTON 66 80 48 68 48 / 20 20 5 5 30 MCKINNEY 67 79 49 69 49 / 20 30 10 5 20 DALLAS 68 82 54 70 53 / 20 30 5 5 30 TERRELL 68 81 52 70 51 / 20 30 20 5 30 CORSICANA 68 83 54 70 53 / 30 30 10 10 30 TEMPLE 67 84 53 72 54 / 30 20 5 10 50 MINERAL WELLS 64 81 47 68 50 / 30 10 5 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .UPDATE... THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. UPDATED DISCUSSION... ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW 00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500 J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY. GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION, THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/ BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND 10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN. THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL DECREASING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 86 58 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 85 57 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 57 76 60 / 40 20 - 10 60 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 85 54 72 56 / 30 10 - 10 60 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 58 78 62 / 70 0 - 20 60 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 56 73 56 / 30 20 - 10 50 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 57 78 61 / 70 10 - 20 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 57 76 59 / 30 20 - 10 60 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 81 61 76 61 / 30 40 10 10 50 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 86 58 77 61 / 40 20 - 20 60 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 20 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1051 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 .DISCUSSION...AS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SVR WATCH 81 IS CANCELLED FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. NOTHING TO NOTE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. IF ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS CAP CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. MAY ADJUST POPS ONE MORE TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK. CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT. MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS. SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND 6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IS LOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S DAILY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 71 85 68 80 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 VICTORIA 70 82 64 81 65 / 40 40 10 10 50 LAREDO 69 93 68 84 68 / 50 0 10 20 50 ALICE 70 90 67 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 50 ROCKPORT 71 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50 COTULLA 67 91 63 81 65 / 50 10 10 20 50 KINGSVILLE 71 89 69 82 70 / 40 20 10 10 50 NAVY CORPUS 71 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. AFTER THESE SHOWERS PULL OUT MONDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY... RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT AFTER PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... AND EVEN A BIT WARMER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLE WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL TIME DOWN A BIT. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND EVEN MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. ONLY THE NAM OFFERS A SMALL AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO SMALL...LI AROUND -0.25 AND CAPE AT MOST 200 J/KG...FOR THUNDER CONCERNS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AN AVERAGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE AND ONE- HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST THANKS TO THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL DIP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY...A DEEP LOW/TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE COAST OF VA/NC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE ONE CATCH IS THAT GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF VA/NC TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE COAST. AS IT DOES THIS...UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BITS OF ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SWING INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES...PLUS OR MINUS...OF NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 137 AM EDT MONDAY... FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A STRONG LOW LVL JET SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AND WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC A FEW AIRPORTS WILL HAVE A 6-8HR PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...BUT MAINLY LOOKING AT BLF/LWB/LYH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS BCB/ROA/LYH FOR LESS THAN HOUR BUT NOT OBSCURE VSBYS. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND SOME OF THE 4-8KFT CIGS LIFT OR SCATTER OUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. SUSTAINED OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS TOWARD BLF/LWB BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL BRING MVFR 3KFT CIGS TO BLF BY 03Z/12. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... AS THE APPROACHING FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME SUB-VFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN THE PIEDMONT FOR A WHILE. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN VA/MD WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA. 700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850 RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY OF INLAND 50S. .THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT AS WELL. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS. && .MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1147 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA... PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE. HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z. UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GC/24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
955 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA... PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE. HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT KSWF UNTIL 22Z. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 16Z...MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25 KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z. UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S AFT 04Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GC/24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
759 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOW CHC OF KHPN BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z. UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S AFT 04Z AS LLJ DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR REGION. STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION. RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AREAS OF RAIN HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z/MON. HOWEVER...BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING...MOST REMAIN VFR FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS DESPITE THE RAIN. ALSO...THE LATEST RAP13 SUGGESTS RH VALUES AT AND BELOW 925 MB REMAIN BELOW 70 PERCENT...SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PERSISTS TO LIMIT CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR OR BELOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SO...FOR LATEST TAFS...HAVE DELAYED ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AT KGFL AND KPSF. STILL EXPECTED OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB- KPSF. AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND OF 8-12 KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS AT KALB...WITH LESS GUSTINESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AS A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KGFL/KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10-12 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KT. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LLWS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER. RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...KL/BGM FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
655 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR REGION. STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN SOUTHERN AREAS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION. RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN/SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL IN VFR TERRITORY. HOWEVER...EXPECTATIONS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LOWERING OF AT LEAST THE CIGS INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS/RAIN...IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AS WE WILL KEEP THE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB- KPSF. AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. THE QUESTION WILL BE LLWS POTENTIAL TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO 80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER. RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
558 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY, GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL PA, WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE I-95 WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY PERIODS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH. SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.9 INCHES TODAY. FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED ABOVE THIS BLEND BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS. DEWPOINTS WERE RAISED IN THE 630 AM FCST FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BY BLENDING THE 06Z/11 NAM 2M DEWS WITH THE PHI FCST. THIS ALSO IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. ALSO RAISED POPS TONIGHT IN THIS 630 AM FCST UPDATE AND WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN` I-95 NWWD LATE TONIGHT. THIS BECAUSE SREF AVERAGED PWAT INCREASES TO 1.25 INCHES BY MORNING AND A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES, WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW 40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S., THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY. WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS EVENING THEN VFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT, PROBABLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN MDT SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. && .MARINE... SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...DRAG 558 SHORT TERM...DRAG 558 LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 558 MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1008 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES LOOK ON TARGET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST. TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP- LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER70S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL RISK OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1044 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Updated the forecast this morning to have showers south of I-72 with isolated thunderstorms from I-70 southeast, diminishing quicker from nw to se during mid/late afternoon. Also issued a freeze warning overnight until 9 am Tuesday for central IL north of I-70 with lows 28-32F. Highs today range from the lower 50s from Peoria and Bloomington north, to the upper 50s in southeast IL. 15Z/10 am surface map shows the cold front in far southeast IL approaching the Mount Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county. 1012 mb low pressure was along this front in southern IL with another 1012 mb low pressure near the AR/MO border as this frontal boundary extended sw into nw AR. A widespread area of showers was south of I-72 this morning with pockets of moderate to heavier rain showers. Most of the thunderstorms are now southeast of Lawrence county ahead of the cold front. Mid/high clouds have thickened up over northern CWA during the morning while low/mid overcast skies from I-72 south with the rain showers. Latest forecast models take cold front southeast to the Ohio river during this afternoon while weak low pressures move ne along it. Shower chances to gradually diminish and end from nw to se during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible southeast of I-70 for a couple more hours into early afternoon. The little wabash river at Clay City expected to rise above flood stage during this afternoon, while the Embarras river at Lawrenceville is forecast to rise above flood stage by mid evening. Temperatures at 1030 am range from lower 40s from Peoria northward to the mid 50s in Lawrence county. Cloud decrease north of I-72 during mid/late afternoon to allow temps to rise about another 10 degrees into the lower 50s, while clouds and rain showers most of the day keep temps nearly steady in southeast IL where highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain. Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today, the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop, which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 The cold front has progressed south of all the terminal sites already this morning. CMI and DEC were the last to see the passage in just the last few hours. CMI is the only site to still see LIFR conditions with a ovc002 ceiling and 3/4sm BR fog. DEC has MVFR vis at TAF start time. Upstream trends indicate CMI and DEC should see VFR conditions develop by 15z at the latest. A band of rain showers will persist south of I-72 today, but no rain is expected at the terminal sites. Winds behind the cold front will become NW and increase to 13g23kt through the day. Northwest winds will diminish quickly tonight under advancing high pressure, remaining 3-6kt overnight. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
626 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM... 218 AM CDT TODAY AND TONIGHT... AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. KMD && .LONG TERM... 218 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE... HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME 70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA. KMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS... 626 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BUT STILL SOME LINGERING FOG/PATCHY LOW CIGS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH MAY AFFECT GYY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CMS && .MARINE... 212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain. Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today, the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop, which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016 Little change in thinking from previous forecast. A period of VLIFR conditions can be expected over parts of the TAF area late tonight into the early morning hours due to low clouds and fog just ahead of the cold front, which at this hour was just west of PIA. Once the front shifts east of the area, we expect improving conditions to work their way from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours. VFR conditions should begin to affect the PIA area around 10z and by 16z in our far eastern TAF site, CMI. Rain with isold TSRA can be expected mainly south of a SPI to CMI line over the next few hours just ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, as the front settles southeast across the state, we expect precip chances to decrease from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours. Light south to southwest winds ahead of the cold front will become northwest to north after the frontal passage later tonight with speeds on Monday ranging from 10 to 15 kts with a few afternoon gusts around 20 kts at times before diminishing quickly around 00z. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111500Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...IMPROVING AFTER 21Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...TDUD/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111200Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1018 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... AFTER REVIEWING RADAR TRENDS AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH MID- DAY...AND THEN EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE STABLE RAIN COOLED AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTIVE RISK SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD ALOFT. 32 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA IS DRIVING CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA. CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS PICKED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH MOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS MORNING AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60. SHORT TERM... OUR SPELL OF DRY WEATHER IS ABOUT TO END. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...REACHING NEAR THE MEMPHIS AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING...WITH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AREA AT MIDDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BAND OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED SCENARIO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK...WITH A FEW COUNTIES/PARISHES NORTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE IN A SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDINGS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER LOOK. WITH THE SHORTWAVE NEAR MEMPHIS AT 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...AND WILL CARRY LOWER POPS ON TUESDAY. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOWER AS MOST CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. MAIN THREAT WITH WEDNESDAY CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE LAST WEEK...SO AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN. 35 LONG TERM... MEDIUM RANGE DETAILS A LITTLE MURKY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY GETS HUNG UP OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE GETTING SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA. CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COMPLETELY DRY PERIOD...AND WILL TREND A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE FOR LOWS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35 AVIATION... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST LOWER CEILINGS INITIALLY AND THEN LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST FOG FORMATION IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. 98/SO MARINE... WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR SO SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THE EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PERSIST. 98/SO DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 65 74 57 / 70 60 40 10 BTR 79 67 79 60 / 60 50 40 20 ASD 77 68 78 62 / 60 50 50 10 MSY 78 68 79 65 / 50 50 50 20 GPT 76 68 76 62 / 60 50 50 10 PQL 77 68 76 62 / 60 60 50 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
941 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. PREV DISC... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. PREV DISC... MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL. AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS. MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DETAILS... COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/. POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER- MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/. CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND THIS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11 FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY. WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT TIME. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. PREV DISC... MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL. AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS. MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DETAILS... COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/. POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER- MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/. CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND THIS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11 FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY. WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT TIME. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT NEAR TERM...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...ARNOTT AVIATION...ARNOTT/CANNON MARINE...ARNOTT/CANNON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC... ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI. SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM THE SFC LOW. MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE. AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER MI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH. ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST. WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT 60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO TREND DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTN...THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR THIS EVENING. AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THRU TONIGHT. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BROUGHT AN MVFR CEILING INTO KMOT. LOOKS LIKE KBIS AND KJMS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND INCLUDING AROUND KJMS BEFORE 15 UTC...OTHERWISE GOOD VFR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE...LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS. TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR 08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80 KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS 14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z. STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS. ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING KBKW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA IS STARTING OFF IN THE 49-52 DEGREE RANGE THIS MORNING. GIVEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE/MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SWATH OF STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE. HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE. HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147- 148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE. HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...FIRST REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND KERI BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147- 148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NEAR 10Z...IN THE FAST FLOW...WILL JUST BE A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS 21Z TO 23Z IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... AND SWINGING EAST THIS EVENING. ....REST FROM THE 08Z RELEASE... AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR 08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80 KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS 14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z. STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS. ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE 122Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS... FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY...BEFORE WEAKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE THROUGH 20Z... COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z TRI STATE VCNTY HTS...INCLUDING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 22Z TO 08Z. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY INCLUDING KBKW. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 20Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES WEST TO EAST. MAY BE A HOUR OR SO FASTER ON FRONT...THEN FIGURED BACK FOR THE 06Z SET OF TAFS...NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 04Z...CRW TO CKB AROUND 05/06Z...AND THRU MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING 09Z TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING KHTS AND KPKB...AND EVEN INTO KCKB IN NORTH CENTRAL WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY VCNTY KHTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING KBKW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
825 AM PDT MON APR 11 2016 .DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM IN. THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL. A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500 TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL RIVERS. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FROM ABOUT THE WINTER RIM AREA OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THE MODOC PLATEAU WESTWARD IN THE USUALLY MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MOST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50" TO 1.5" RANGE. 0.25" TO 0.75" WILL FALL IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. IT IS SPRING...THE TIME FOR VARIED WEATHER OVER THE AREA...AND A RETURN TO DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS IS ON DECK FOR NEXT WEEKEND. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE THURSDAY HIGHS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS ARE AT THE COAST...COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN MVFR BUT LIFT TO VFR INLAND LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM IS STILL A THREAT FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING. /SVEN && .MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL BECOMING HIGH AND STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE GALES AND SEAS APPROACHING 17 FEET. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH A PEAK WITH ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO OVER 24 FEET THURSDAY. MODELS ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSTANT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. /SVEN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ 15/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. DUNN && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z. 78.JG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED! DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10 WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30 PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10 DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 10 5 20 10 MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 10 5 20 10 DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10 TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 10 5 30 10 CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 10 10 40 30 TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 10 5 10 60 30 MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .AVIATION... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z. 78.JG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED! DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10 WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30 PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10 DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10 MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10 DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 30 10 5 30 10 TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10 CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30 TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30 MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THINK ANY FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EAST WITH THE 500 MB FLOW. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE SOME SUNSHINE AND THE GOOD MIXING TODAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE TRICKY. FOR NOW...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. MADISON SHOULD SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. HIGH WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA. 700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850 RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY OF INLAND 50S. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT AS WELL. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS. MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
227 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...AND LI WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY...SOME OF THIS CLEARING WILL WORK NE INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE MARITIME INFLUENCE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPOTS WITH THE LOW TO MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT MVG NE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF NYC WITH NO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL NEAR 08Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FCST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 08Z WEST UNTIL NEARLY 16Z EAST. WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGHEST FROM JFK/LGA EAST...SUSTAINED S WINDS ARND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT UNTIL 23Z. WINDS TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT JFK/LGA EAST UNTIL 09Z. WINDS TUESDAY...SHIFT FROM THE WNW FOLLOWING CFP AT 15-20 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST UNTIL 11Z TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE AFTN...RAIN ENDING SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY 22Z...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT. .TUE NIGHT...VFR. NNW 10-15KT. .WED...VFR. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. .THU-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 10-15 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GC MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
125 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z. UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW NEAR TERM...JC/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GC MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING. WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z. UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN. .WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW NEAR TERM...JC/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GC MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
111 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE COAST...BUT LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE DATA SUGGEST CLEARING WITH THE SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY TRENDS. ALSO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A BIT CLOSER THE COAST PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES LOOK ON TARGET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST. TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP- LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING--A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1257 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM... 218 AM CDT TODAY AND TONIGHT... AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. KMD && .LONG TERM... 218 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE... HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME 70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA. KMD && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS... AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME SFC WARMING...DEEPER MIXING IS ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THAT GUSTS SHOULD END WITH SUNSET. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...THE BUILDING HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH SKIES BECOMINGMOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND...A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO FORM...WITH WINDS BECOMING NELY-ELY AROUND 10KT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KREIN && .MARINE... 212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1252 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Updated the forecast this morning to have showers south of I-72 with isolated thunderstorms from I-70 southeast, diminishing quicker from nw to se during mid/late afternoon. Also issued a freeze warning overnight until 9 am Tuesday for central IL north of I-70 with lows 28-32F. Highs today range from the lower 50s from Peoria and Bloomington north, to the upper 50s in southeast IL. 15Z/10 am surface map shows the cold front in far southeast IL approaching the Mount Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county. 1012 mb low pressure was along this front in southern IL with another 1012 mb low pressure near the AR/MO border as this frontal boundary extended sw into nw AR. A widespread area of showers was south of I-72 this morning with pockets of moderate to heavier rain showers. Most of the thunderstorms are now southeast of Lawrence county ahead of the cold front. Mid/high clouds have thickened up over northern CWA during the morning while low/mid overcast skies from I-72 south with the rain showers. Latest forecast models take cold front southeast to the Ohio river during this afternoon while weak low pressures move ne along it. Shower chances to gradually diminish and end from nw to se during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible southeast of I-70 for a couple more hours into early afternoon. The little wabash river at Clay City expected to rise above flood stage during this afternoon, while the Embarras river at Lawrenceville is forecast to rise above flood stage by mid evening. Temperatures at 1030 am range from lower 40s from Peoria northward to the mid 50s in Lawrence county. Cloud decrease north of I-72 during mid/late afternoon to allow temps to rise about another 10 degrees into the lower 50s, while clouds and rain showers most of the day keep temps nearly steady in southeast IL where highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain. Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today, the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop, which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016 A cold front pushing southeast toward the Ohio river early this afternoon, will push southeast into central KY by sunset, while weak 1012 mb low pressure in southeast MO and near Evansville IN lift ne along this boundary. Large area of rain showers south of I-72 may bring isolated light showers to DEC and CMI for another hour or two before exiting se of central IL, and carried VCSH to accomodate this with broken to overcast mid level clouds around 10k ft. Otherise VFR conditions expected during the next 24 hours across central IL as 1026 mb Canadian high pressure near the Sasketchewan and Manitoba province line and ridging southward across the Dakotas, drifts southeast into southeast WI/eastern IA and nw IL by 18Z/1 pm Tue. Broken cirrus clouds early this afternoon will scattered out between 21-24Z from nw to se and then clear skies expected tonight into Tue. Breezy nw winds 10-16 kts and gusts of 17-23 kts to diminish to around 10 kts late this afternoon and then 4-7 kts after sunset this evening. Winds then veer more NE 6-9 kts Tue morning. No fog expected overnight with nw winds advecting in drier Canadian air as dewpoints slip into the low to mid 20s by dawn Tue over central IL. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE BLOCK FOR THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND THUS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREEING...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S LATE WEEK AND LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 KNOTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 KNOTS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM...PUMA AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... MAIN SHRA/TSRA ACTION REMAINS ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST. NAM12 SHOWS WE SHOULD BE COVERED WITH TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C & S LA NOW WITH THE HRRR SHOWING WHERE IT SUPPOSED TO BE. THUS...USING HRRR AS A GUIDE FOR LATER CONVECTION TIMING ACROSS C LA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FOR AEX...TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BETWEEN 06-09Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND INTERMITTENT LIFR BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR ALL SITES. FRONT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH AEX AFTER DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 14-15Z. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ DISCUSSION... CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO RUN UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DESPITE THE CLOUDS. OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL HANG UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK AND HIGHER MOISTURES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS INLAND. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HAVE PASSED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COOL FRONT AS IT MAKES IT WAY TO THE COASTLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RAMP UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGNITE AS OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. RAINS WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE... MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MEANDER IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 73 56 71 / 50 20 30 50 LCH 69 80 60 72 / 30 20 60 80 LFT 70 79 63 73 / 40 30 50 80 BPT 68 80 61 72 / 20 20 70 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-475. && $$ AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 1255 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. PREV DISC... 930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. PREV DISC... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. PREV DISC... MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR 12Z MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL. AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS. MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DETAILS... COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/. POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER- MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/. CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD /THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND THIS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11 FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY. WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT TIME. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID- LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT - SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW. AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT. TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT. NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251- 264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC... ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI. SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM THE SFC LOW. MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE. AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER MI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT. NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251- 264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC... ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI. SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM THE SFC LOW. MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE. AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER MI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH. ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST. WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT 60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251- 264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN. THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVE. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST. BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS FAR SW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE KIML AND/OR KOGA TERMINALS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS FIXED ON SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AT MOST WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS BEYOND 15Z TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH. AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE AVIATION...JACOBS FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG. UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE NORTH FLOW AT KJMS TO START THE PERIOD BUT DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 18-20 UTC AT KBIS AND KMOT. WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT KDIK AND KISN. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT EACH SITE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE. HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY 03Z. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL TAFS SITES BUT TOL AND LOWER CIG AND VSBY TO IFR OR LIFR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR 00Z. TOL SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 23Z. CLEARING WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING VSBY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...LAPLANTE MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 130 PM UPDATE... LOWERED DEW POINTS AND THUS RH VALUES FARTHER WV COAL FIELDS AND SW VA WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR SW VA IN COORD WITH VA DEPT OF FORESTRY. 1030 AM UPDATE... LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS. TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR 08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80 KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60 DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS 14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z. STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY. ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS. ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING. CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES INCLUDING KBKW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S. WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE. HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016 .DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN. THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY OREGON WEST SIDE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL. A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500 TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL RIVERS. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE WILL GENERALLY BY 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES. EAST SIDE TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL END. WE`RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO JUMP ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS RISE TO 12-13C ON SATURDAY, THEN JUMP TO 15-16C ON SUNDAY. SO, BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM, EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO BE A BIT FAST. THUS, HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW A WEAKER, SLOWER SHORTWAVE AND A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. SPILDE && .AVIATION...FOR THE 11/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR CIGS FROM THE SHASTA REGION EAST TO MODOC COUNTY WILL ALSO LIFT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SPILDE && .MARINE...UPDATED 145 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS TO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ 15/18/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1" OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 21Z TAFS SENT. NO LARGE CHANGES MADE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY WED-SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1" OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING OR MID DAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY WED-SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY 3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 69 80 69 78 65 / 10 20 60 60 10 VICTORIA 67 80 65 75 60 / 10 20 60 70 10 LAREDO 71 85 69 83 64 / 10 30 60 30 10 ALICE 67 83 69 79 63 / 10 20 60 60 10 ROCKPORT 70 77 69 76 65 / 10 20 60 70 20 COTULLA 66 80 65 79 60 / 10 30 60 50 10 KINGSVILLE 69 83 69 80 64 / 10 20 60 60 10 NAVY CORPUS 71 76 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 60 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TB/78...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCT-BKN CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 025-050 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A DRYLINE IS MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ON THE DRYLINE WEST OF DFW AROUND 20-21Z. FOR THE WACO AREA...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION VCTS IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KACT TAF. FOR THE METROPLEX...WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21-00Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT AFFECTS THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE TRUE FRONT ARRIVES. BETWEEN 21-00Z...ITS POSSIBLE THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY CLOSER TO 00Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KACT ABOUT 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. HOWEVER...CIGS AT KACT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 1 KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. JLDUNN && .UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO TOWARDS WACO. HOETH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED! DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10 WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30 PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10 DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10 MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10 DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10 TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10 CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30 TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30 MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016 .UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO TOWARDS WACO. HOETH && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z. 78.JG && .UPDATE... QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/ MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED! DUNN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10 WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30 PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10 DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10 MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10 DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10 TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10 CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30 TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30 MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$