Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/11/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
456 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE
SOCAL BIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
RADAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HITTING THE GAGES AT THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL MOVIE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO MOST OF SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING SOME OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO GET SOME
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEVELOPING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK DECENT. BOTH
THE NAM-WRF AND RAP SOUNDINGS LOOKED PROMISING FOR SOME
CONVECTION. THE NAM INDICATED LI READINGS TO AROUND -7 IN THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND AROUND -5 FOR THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
KEEP FROM HEATING THE SURFACE. IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...IT WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THEN DRIFTING SE INTO THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION NEAR A THUNDERSTORM WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH COULD
FALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS REMAINS VALID THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER IF
STORMS DO NOT FIRE UP IN A FEW HOURS...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS...MOSTLY WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DOWNTOWN
ALREADY REACHED 70 DEGREES WHILE MOST VALLEYS REMAINED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. IT WAS COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA
HAS ROTATED IN A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SRN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. THIS
NW TO SE AXIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NRN AND NE FACING SLOPES ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING UPPER
LOW...ANOTHER UPPER LVL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PAC.IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IT WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE TOWARDS SAN DIEGO
AND NRN BAJA...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGHER
POPS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 500-700 MB.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE LOCAL ROAD
FLOODING IF ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP. THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE STORMS
COULD DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO TREND
HIGHER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN
EDDYWILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIN UP A DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF LA/VTU AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES.
MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NW WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE CENTRAL COAST MOSTLY CLEAR. MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND LOMPOC AND VANDENBERG AFB.
.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A
DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES
WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE...MIGHT BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREAS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDOWNER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MTNS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE NEXT
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SLO COUNTY.
HAVE HEDGED BACK POPS ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THEN DIG SOUTH OVER
NEVADA. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHREAL SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MOSTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE
VTU/LA COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN SLO/SBA VALLEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST DUE
TO SUNDOWNER WINDS. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MTNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FRI
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...11/0000Z.
AT 00Z, THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THERE
WAS A WEAK MARINE INVERSION UP TO AROUND 1900 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. AT TERMINALS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION, THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
10Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.
KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...10/200 PM...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CK
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
246 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER THE VTU COUNTY COAST AND VLYS TO THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.40 INCH PER HOUR OBSERVED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE VTU COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH PEAK RATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OR MORE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT (LAXFFALOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
7000 FEET THRU TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF SRN CA WILL MOVE E TO
THE FAR SRN CA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUN...REACHING
AZ BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SRN CA CST SUN AND MOVE WELL S OF THE AREA ON
MON. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA
THRU MON. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E MON NIGHT...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN CA ON TUE.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUN INTO SUN EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON IN THE
MTNS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS...AND SUN
EVENING IN THE MTNS...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE CST/VLYS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THRU SUN EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25
TO 0.75 INCH OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...BUT AMOUNTS NEAR AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE MTNS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCH. SNOWFALL OF UP TO 5 TO
10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500
FEET... OTHERWISE ELEVATIONS OF 7000 TO 7500 FEET COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUN NIGHT
AND MON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MTNS WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY MON AFTERNOON. THE NAM KEEPS DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS
MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MTNS INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE. LOCALLY GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE MTNS
AND DESERTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA THRU MON...TEMPS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
DUE TO COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPS SHOULD TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE THANKS TO THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGING AND A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE PEEKING THRU THE
CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE GFS/EC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHO SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP FRI AND SAT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE
E PAC WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA CST ON WED...THEN MOVE INLAND
MAINLY OVER NRN AND CENTRAL CA ON THU...WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROF. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN FRI AND SAT...ALTHO THE GFS WAS SLOWER
THAN THE EC WITH THIS FEATURE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN CA ON THU FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WED
THRU SAT. THE UPPER TROF WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...MTNS AND
DESERTS FOR THU AND FRI. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO TURN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WED...AND COOLER STILL ON THU TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A WARMUP IS FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1800Z.
AT 1800Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH NO TRUE MARINE
INVERSION.
THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CIG
CATS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDS. IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS...CONDS WILL BE
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
E WINDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 8 KNOTS BEFORE 20Z.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE WILL BE FREQUENT CIG
CHANGES. CIG CATS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR TO LOW VFR...WITH A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...09/200 PM.
SE TO S WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...ROUGH SEAS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND WATERSPOUTS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
40-44-45-54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
234 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.Synopsis...
A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state
through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain
showers will likely continue early next week with another round of
showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels
remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue
to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior. The
main area continues to be from around I-80 southward with isolated
showers and sprinkles are occurring to the north. The HRRR model
indicates a band developing around Plumas/Shasta counties this
evening then moving into the central and northern Sacramento
valley. I left in a slight chance of thunderstorms over parts of
Plumas and Shasta counties. Further south showers should continue
to move westward into the valley.
The low will slowly move inland over the next 24 hours with
little change in the weather expected over Northern California.
Another low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the
coast to help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the
State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley
and mountains.
Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks
getting some snow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Models in a little better agreement with latest runs as next trough
drops SE into the Pac NW by middle of the week. A few mountain
showers are possible Wednesday as weak shortwave ahead of trough
moves through NorCal. Have cut back POPs during this timeframe as
main trough likely won`t move through until later Wednesday into
Thursday. More widespread precipitation possible with this wave. Model
solutions still painting heaviest precip across the mountains with
lesser amounts in the Valley. Most notable aspect with this
system is colder air given origin in Gulf of Alaska. This will
drop snow levels to between 4500-5500 feet which could cause some
travel headaches across the mountains. Temperatures will also be
cooler than the start of the week. Ridging then builds in for
Friday into the weekend with drier weather and warming trend in
temperatures.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest
across southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will
lead to MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR
cigs in heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less.
CEO/Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRY AND
A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. WARMER AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST STRENGTHENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH IS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
MORNING SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED THAT DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA...WITH PW DOWN TO 0.76 INCHES. HOWEVER...ONE LOOK AT RADAR AND
ONE CAN SEE SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN IN A FORMIDABLE BAND SOME 10-20
NM OFFSHORE. THIS IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY
AFTER 1030 AM.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BAND TO SEE HOW IT HOLDS TOGETHER. HI-RES
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING PARTICULARY IN ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD
CELLS TRAIN OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. SO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
NEAR TERM TRENDS TODAY.
THE THRUST OF THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER CONVECTION/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST BY 12Z. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL BE ASSESSING WHETHER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY
AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AGAIN TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH...WITH NOW BOTH GFS
AND EC TAKING THE LOW INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY.
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATER
TOTALS ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO ORANGE COUNTY. GREATER RAINFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT FROM BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY
FROM THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH
(AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES AND RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH SNOWFALL
MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD END BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE
ECMWF IN TERMS OF BEING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND MORE INLAND
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING
COOLING AND STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
091557Z...PATCHY BKN-OVC CLOUDS IN THE 2000-10000 FT MSL LAYER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL
ELSEWHERE...ISOL SHRA AND MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-10/0000 UTC...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE 2000-
10000 FT MSL LAYER WITH INCREASING SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
SLOPES MAY BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. 10/0000-1500 UTC...MERGING
CLOUD LAYERS 1000-20000 FT MSL WITH WIDESPREAD-SCT SHRA/+SHRA AND
ISOL TSRA PRODUCING AREAS OF VIS 2-5 SM. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL VIS/CIGS AOB 1 SM/800 FT AGL
RESPECTIVELY POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH +SHRA/TSRA WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT
MSL. SLOPES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS/SHRA. HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY DURING THE 10/0600-1200 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS.
&&
.MARINE...
857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS COULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WITH MORE
DETAILS HAS BEEN POSTED.
&&
.BEACHES...
857 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AT THE BEACHES...PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD-TO-WATER OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
&&
.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR LATE THIS EVENING
AND LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS BANDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GREGORIA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
920 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.Synopsis...
A low pressure system will bring showers to the north state
through the weekend with isolated thunderstorms possible. Mountain
showers will likely continue early next week with another round of
showers over the entire north state around mid week. Snow levels
remain high for minimal mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area off the Southern California coast will continue
to spread rain northward over parts of the northern interior.
Currently there is a band that is over the Sierra Nevada and
extending into the Sacramento region. This area will continue to
spread westward this morning so little change is expected from
around Sacramento southward through the morning. To the north
isolated showers and sprinkles are occurring. Mountain areas
should see an increase in activity this afternoon. The HRRR model
indicates a band developing around Placer/Sierra counties this
afternoon and moving into the valley.
The low will slowly move inland over the next 36 hours with little
change in the weather expected over Northern California. Another
low pressure area will drop southward on Sunday off the coast to
help keep unsettled weather over the area into Monday.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves through the far northern end of the
State and may bring some showers to the north end of the valley
and mountains.
Snow levels will continue to be high with only the higher peaks
getting some snow.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
The current upper lows are associated with a Rex Block pattern
while the low coming in mid next week is a colder trough tied to
the main jet stream and a colder maritime polar airmass.
This trough will be dropping into and through NorCal Wednesday
and Thursday. With the pattern change, discrepancies do exist
between the GFS and ECMWF on exact timing and placement. The GFS
shows a trough that deepens into a low over NorCal Wednesday while
the ECMWF is quicker and more shallow. Most notably, the shallower
ECMWF track could limit the amount of precipitation in the
southern part of our forecast area and delay it until Wednesday
night or early Thursday. We maintained our forecast that represents
a mix of the two solutions due to the model uncertainty.
Ridging develops over NorCal Friday and Saturday with the potential
for lingering Sierra showers Friday. Another trough looks to bring
precipitation back into NW California by late next weekend.
JClapp
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, heaviest across
southern Sac and northern San Joaquin Valleys. This will lead to
MVFR conditions across TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs in
heavier showers. Winds generally 10 kts or less.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
343 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE
WEATHER THIS MORNING IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY AROUND 30N
125W OR 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS HAS ABSORBED
THE OLD LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV WHICH IS
NOW ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. THESE MAY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGS SOME
SHOWERS TO MENDOCINO COUNTY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS QUITE MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. FARTHER NORTH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AND BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME MAY FORM OVER THE
YOLLA BOLLYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
AND POSSIBLY ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF
THE SHOWERS STOPPING SHORT OF THE AREA OR JUST OVER THE INTERIOR
HILLS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SO WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO EXACT ON THE
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO
THE FLOW AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIVES DOWN AND STARTS TO BECOME A NEW CUTOFF LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS ON MONDAY.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
AND STARTS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 00Z GFS BRINGS A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO TO THE COAST. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING DRIER HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER
WEATHER AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION REFLECTING THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS BUT
ALSO DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TODAY AT KUKI DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS AT TIMES REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET
RANGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT
MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500
MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR
PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA
AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN.
ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A LARGE SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A
CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THIS LOW WILL
REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING
LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS IT
MERGES INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT 500
MILES WSW OF LOS ANGELES. THIS TROUGH HAS TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
WELL AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTH INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE THUS FAR
PRODUCED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA THUS FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA
AND SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF
SAN BENITO COUNTY...WERE FROM 0.10 TO 0.30" HAVE FALLEN.
ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HRRR FORECASTS ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH ACROSS THE BAY AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BETWEEN SHOWERS. BUT ANYONE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAIN AT TIMES.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW TRACKS INLAND WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH MORE SUNNY BREAKS.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BY THEN AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DIABLO RANGE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MORE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:04 PM PDT FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. LARGE
SCALE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROX 700 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS LOW
WILL REACH SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN LIGHT SE
WIND SATURDAY. VFR THIS EVENING TRENDING TO MVFR CIGS LATE EVENING
LASTING INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH
THE COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE
NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING
TO BETWEEN 0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINING AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC-H7 FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE COLDER AIR IS A TAD
FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS DTHROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN
REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THUS...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT UPPER 40S NYC METRO.
S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE
LATE TNGT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NW. INCREASING THETAE SO
A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES.
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY LOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORY REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF AND POSSIBLY AT KHPN.
WINDS DIMINISH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN
BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING...WHICH COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN FORECAST. IN
ADDITION... OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF SCA ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO START MON
MORNING.
SLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON
NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN
REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AS WELL
AS CLOUD COVERAGE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL
RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT
RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND
RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND GRADUALLY LOWERS OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CATEGORY REMAINS
VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF
AND POSSIBLY AT KHPN.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...WHICH COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN FORECAST. IN ADDITION...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND WELL EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL THEN SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRES WAS EMERGING FROM THE DELMARVA AT 14Z PER MSAS.
WATER VAPOR PLACED THE UPR LOW OVER WRN PA. TSTMS EVIDENT OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WITH THE RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING PCPN ROUGHLY ACROSS
CNTRL NJ SPREADING NWD.
DRY AMS OVER THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. EXPECT SOME
EROSION OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS IT APPROACHED THE REGION AS A
RESULT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM KEEP THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN S OF
THE REGION THIS AFTN...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR ANY BANDING THIS
EVE.
BANDS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...AS WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE ABV 1000FT OUTSIDE OF ANY INTENSE BANDING.
SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR TODAY AND REDUCED SNOWFALL THRU 18Z
FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER
THE RAP SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS ERN LI AFT
00Z...WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING ELSEWHERE. HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THIS
SOLN YET ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING
EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH DRYING CONDS ON BREEZY N/NW
FLOW.
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY IN THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.
HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON TAP WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
NORTH OF NY STATE AND THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND THAT FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THROUGH
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AS THAT WARM FRONT APPROACHES...
SOME MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY...AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S AND WILL APPROACH 60 IN SOME AREAS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THAT
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AND
THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WINDS
DOWN DURING THAT TIME.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST AS OF 15Z MOVES EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
VFR WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTN AS PCPN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LGT RA MIXES WITH SN AT TIMES AS...THOUGH EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS IT`S UNLIKELY FOR ACCUMULATION ON
RUNWAYS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SOME SLUSH THAT MIGHT
REQUIRE TREATMENT. TIMING FOR THIS TO OCCUR (IF IT DOES) WOULD BE
20-22Z IN THE NY METRO.
NE WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE JERSEY COAST. EXPECTING A RAPID INCREASE
IN WIND AROUND 00-01Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
AT THE LOW INTENSIFIES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NGT-TUE...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20-30KT POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORN THROUGH MON EVE.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS NNW AND INCREASE. SCA
CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS LEADING UP TO
INCREASING WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. GALES ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING SEAS AND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25KT SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA ONCE GALES ARE
OVER.
THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER
THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25KT OTHERWISE WILL
BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS. SCA THEREFORE FOR
TONIGHT. A GUST OR TWO TO 25KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS...BUT SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALL DAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON MONDAY.
COLD FRONT THEN WORKS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONDS SLOWLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED
ON THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PRECIP OR LESS
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH 1/4 INCH
ACROSS NE NJ/NYC METRO AND LI. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LI AND
NYC/NJ METRO SEEING 1/2 INCH OF QPF. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUE ARE
EXPECTED.
ABOUT 1/2 INCH QPF POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEING THE
LOWER HIGH TIDE...AND EASTERLY FLOW STILL RAMPING UP...WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS.
WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES STILL RUNNING HIGH...AND ONLY 1/2 TO 1
1/2 FT POSITIVE DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH TONIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS SURGE WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE N/NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP WATER
LEVELS JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AN EMERGENCY ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM REPLACEMENT AT WFO NEW YORK
IS SCHEDULED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED DURING THAT TIME...AND SERVICE
BACKUP WILL BE PROVIDED BY WFO MOUNT HOLLY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
125 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. STILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL GIVING BETTER CHANCE
SUNDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY
AND HAVE LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY CHANCE ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE. DECREASED CHANCED MONDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN KEEPING
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INCREASED
CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AHEAD OF
PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GK
.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...THEN THE MID-
CONTINENT TROUGH RETROGRADES OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THU NIGHT/FRI.
THE ZONAL FLOW LIKELY MEANS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COMPARING ONE
PRODUCT SUITE TO ANOTHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT...WHEN THE GFS
CLEARS A LITTLE AND THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED LOW ON TOP OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUING.
AT THAT POINT...THEY FALL INTO SHARP DISAGREEMENT AT TIMES. UNTIL
THU NIGHT...CONSISTENTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS PREDICTED
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WHICH FITS IN WITH THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. BOTH THE GFSX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE HAVE HIGH POPS FOR
BOTH WED AND THU EVEN FOR PLACES LIKE POCATELLO. BEYOND THU PAINTED
WITH A BROAD BRUSH AND INCREASED POPS FOR NEXT SAT/SAT NIGHT. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SOME RAINSHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ONLY KIDA AND KSUN ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE PUT IN SOME PREDOMINANT -SHRA. BEST INSTABILITY
IS NEAR KSUN AFTER 10/00Z BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ALL FOUR TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BOUNDARY PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09/23Z AND 10/00Z MAY KICK UP THE WIND. THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FORECASTED BY THE HRRR IN THE PREVIOUS HOURS...SO KIDA
MAY SEE SOME BRIEF WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT IS IN CURRENT TAF FROM
THE WEST DURING THAT TIME. SAME COULD BE TRUE FOR KBYI WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
842 PM CDT
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING. STRONG VORT
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIGHT
CIRCULATION EVEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVE OVER KMKX RADAR SITE AT
840 PM. SEVERAL OBS OF LESS THAN HALF MILE VIS WITH THIS INTENSE
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A QUICK INCH IN 30 MINUTES
REPORTED IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN IL PRIMARILY
FROM ABOUT I-39 EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ABOVE 700
MB...AND 50+ J/KG OF CAPE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE WFO LOT CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING QUICKLY AFTERWARD IN COLD/DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND COLD AIR MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER RELATIVELY
MILDER LAKE WATERS.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1238 AM...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS STILL ACROSS RFD/NORTHWEST IL. THESE SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
GYY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THOUGH HOW SOON THESE PUSH EAST IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT LIKELY AROUND OR BY 09Z. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INITIAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIP...PERHAPS
SLEET WITH A LITTLE SNOW AND RAIN...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN
WITHIN A FEW HOURS. HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB FOR THE
30 HOUR ORD TAF...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO AND PERHAPS PREVAILING
PRECIP FOR A TIME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WELL INTO
THE MORNING AT GYY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL/RFD AND THE REST OF
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A
TRANSISTION ON IN THE UPPER FLOW. THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE WEEK GOES ON...ECMWF
SUGGESTS STRONG RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS BEFORE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD WARMER TEMPS IN THE LATER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NW FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF. FURTHERMORE A DRY FORECAST LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT
OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-
029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1227 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION WITH VORT MAX IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAIN IS STILL
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AS
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT 09Z...BUT THEY WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT
OPERATIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
IN TAF PERIOD AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/50
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP
TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE
BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY.
THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY
AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING
THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY
NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON.
WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE
WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN
QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S.
CUTOFF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND. COLD FRONT ADVANCING
ACROSS NORTHERN IA NOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 05Z
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS UNDER 10KT THROUGH 12Z. MIXING QUICKLY
REALIZED ALL LOCATIONS AFT 14Z MONDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS KMCW
AND KALO...20-25KT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. BY 23Z...GUSTS RELAX WITH
GRADIENT WIND DIMINISHING AFT 00Z. CLOUDS/VIS VFR ALL MONDAY. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON
TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST
1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE
PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT GLD THAN MCK SO
HAVE PUT -SHRA IN A PREVAILING GROUP BETWEEN 06-11Z WHILE MCK
WILL STAY WITH VCSH. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES BY 11Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES)
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING
THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL
RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO
600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONFIDED TO DAYTIME PERIODS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE SUNDAY
WHEN GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14-16Z. STILL
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED (9-12KFT BASES)
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR OCCURRENCE AT EITHER TERMINAL WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAVORED...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING
THIS UPDATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Winds will gradually veer through out the day today, and remain
gusty even into the overnight hours. During non gusty periods
there may be some low level wind shear in the early morning. An
MVFR stratus deck is forecasted to move in from the south towards
sunrise tomorrow. Also, there could be a brief period of showers
and thunderstorms for a few hours around sunrise. Due to the low
coverage decided not to mention precipitation as of now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ010>012-
023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start
out from the east around 10 kts, then veer to the southeast and
increase to 15 kts with gusts to 24kts by 18Z. Winds south to
southwest after 06Z around 15 kts. TSRA should remain south of the
terminals in the 09Z-12Z time period, so left out for now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Surface analysis at 08Z had high pressure extending south from
Minnesota into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Very dry air was
advecting in with dew points in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure
trough was taking shape across the lee of the Rockies. Pressure
gradient increases today as the trough deepens and the high slides
off to the east. Southeast to south winds will increase to 15 to 20
mph in the afternoon with occasional gusts around 25-30 mph with the
higher gusts across north central Kansas. Temperatures today will
warm into the 60s to near 70 as we mix down from 850mb-750mb today.
Layer average winds will be stronger from Manhattan west. Concerns
for elevated fire conditions today will be addressed in the fire
weather section.
Tonight, moisture will continue to return as low level jet increases
to around 50 kts this evening and veers to the southwest. This
should keep the deeper moisture focused across northeast and east
central Kansas. A dry northwest upper flow this morning will become
zonal this afternoon across Kansas. A couple of lead waves will move
across the Central and Southern Plains today and tonight. The lead
wave looks to keep forcing focused south of the forecast area while
the second will move out of the Rockies and across Kansas tonight.
Best lift and moisture will be focused across eastern and east
central Kansas and will go with highest probability there later
tonight. Some elevated instability along with 30 kts of 0-6km shear
will be present for some thunderstorms tonight along with showers.
Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than a quarter of
an inch. Lows tonight will be mild with lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Weak forcing from exiting wave and isentropic upglide exits early
Sunday morning. Southwest winds should help bring some decrease in
cloud through the day with cold front passing through the area.
Moderate elevated mixed layer and limited moisture should keep most
precip in check along the boundary save perhaps far southeastern
areas in the late afternoon and early evening despite highs in the
70s to lower 80s. Veered wind profiles and CAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg should keep any severe potential limited to perhaps a few
pulse storms with small hail. Surface to 850mb front should sink on
south into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday. Mid level baroclinic zone with along with weak
isentropic upglide occurring ahead of the southern branch/Southern
Plains trough may bring some light precip during these periods but
northern branch high pressure building southeast into the Missouri
Valley should end any of this by late Monday afternoon. Persistent
mid and high cloud and north to northeast winds should keep highs in
the 50s. Clearing skies and dewpoints falling into the 20s sets the
stage for another potential freeze, though winds off the surface
still look to be in the 10-20kt range and could keep prime
radiational cooling in check.
The mid to late week periods become dominated by a developing
western CONUS longwave trough with southerly winds the rule locally.
A fairly weak southern branch wave moves across the Southern Plains
around Wednesday and may keep strong moisture return from occurring
until the late week. GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles showing notable
differences in the eastward progress of the trough, but enough
agreement for small precip mention Thursday night and Friday. Highs
return to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Wednesday through Friday. At
this point fire weather conditions do not look to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will continue to shift from northeast to east overnight,
then shift further to the southeast by mid/late morning. Expect
these southeast winds to become gusty by late morning/early
afternoon at 20-25kts with these strong winds persisting through
the evening hours. Winds may diminish slightly for a bit during
the early to mid evening hours. There is some concern for LLWS
this evening as a 50-60kt 850mb quickly develops. May start
seeing some increasing mid-level clouds late this afternoon into
this evening ahead of an approaching wave.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
The day will start out with dew point temperatures in the teens
across the area. Moisture return will be slow with winds initially
from the east and southeast on the back side of the surface high.
Models vary with the speed of moisture return with the RAP the
slowest through the day. Have leaned toward the slower RAP solution
which will yield min afternoon RH around 20 percent for the
northeast for a few hours. Winds are expected to pickup in the
afternoon with some gusts to around 25 mph. Timing of the moisture
recovery and peak winds may yield a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for this
afternoon from Marysville to Topeka and Lawrence northeast where
moisture return will be the slowest. Further south and west RH
increases through the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038>040-055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
evening for KSZ010>012-023-024-026-039-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILLBE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL
RESIDE IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OR LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DYNAMICS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE INTO THE FA. CAPE VALUES UP TO
600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TUESDAY TO THE LOWER
TOMID 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGEFROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS
THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF
THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE
EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT
WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA
SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24-
48 HRS.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT.
WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MCK AND GLD. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BETWEEN 21Z-06Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH LESS
THAN A 30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF
THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
MADE NEAR TERM POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH BLENDING OF LATEST OBS INTO THE
FORECAST GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DEAL WITH A SOME WHAT SNOW SQUALL TYPE
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THIS BAND WILL ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MORE MINOR CHANGES TO DEAL WITH LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
OVERALL THIS UPDATE BEGAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MORE MINOR UPDATES
TO DEAL WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO MADE MENTION OF THE WINDS
IN THE HWO AND COULD WARRANT A SPS IF WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST ACROSS FAR EAST THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND THIS HAS BEEN AIDED
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTAIN GRAUPEL/SLEET AT TIMES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START TO CHANGE OVER OR
MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS/POPS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING A FEW LOCATIONS AT TAF
ISSUANCE...BRINGING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST PLACES
WERE VFR. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT
12Z...AND THEN LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
806 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT BRINGS IN DRIER AND A DOWNSLOPE
WRLY FLOW. HOWEVER...KIWD SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN. AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS TO 30 KT AS SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN
TOWARD SUNRISE. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KSAW EARLY MON
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH BAYFIELD COUNTY INTO WESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY EARLIER TODAY
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS THE WIND HAS BACKED TO NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
DEVILS ISLAND...BUOY 45006 AND AT THE RAWS STATION ON SAND ISLAND.
WE EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST...BACK INTO EASTERN ASHLAND AND OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTIES
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARNING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP BAYFIELD
COUNTY FROM THE WARNING PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN AND SEE ITS IMPACT ON THE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING.
AREAS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
WE WILL BE INCREASING THE COVERAGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE 18Z
RUN OF THE GFS...12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS WERE
SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING FROM THE WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT
500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO
PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300
PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES.
STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING
DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY
00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE
50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL END AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE MID-UPPER
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KDLH/KHIB/KINL. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 20 40 20
INL 6 34 25 41 / 10 30 40 40
BRD 10 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10
HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30
ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-004.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB
FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE
LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN
FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OPERATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT
700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN
THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE
OVERCAST SATURDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN
CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY
BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO KANSAS THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING FROM
KOGA TO KLBF WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT
KLBF WITH HIGHER RETURNS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT AND KEPT IN
VFR CONDITIONS. KVTN WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BOTH TAF
SITES WILL SEE A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER NIGHT 5KTS OR LESS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
227 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH
WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K
INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE
BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE
30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS
IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S.
VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO
AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE
FREEZING.
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID
INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND
500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY.
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS
UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF
MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER.
THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K
INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING
TSTMS IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY PRODUCING
MODERATE WIND AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NEB TONIGHT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
ANOTHER ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL
AND UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW LATE WEEK WILL USHER IN WINDS ON THURSDAY
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL A POCKET OF SHOWERS
BETWEEN BAKER AND BARSTOW AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
MOHAVE COUNTY. THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR
CENTRAL SAN BERN AND MOHAVE COUNTY FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING REAL SUBSTANCIAL. IVE GONE AHEAD AND REDUCED
POPS FOR MOST AREAS BESIDES THE ONES MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MOHAVE. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE
OVER NORTHEAST CLARK AND FAR NORTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTIES. MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA RIPE WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD MESQUITE/INTERSTATE 15 THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NYE, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. HRRR MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING.
MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES AT A STEADY CLIP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS IN RIGHT BEHIND. THIS LOW
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY BEFORE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BUT
MOST PLACES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING - MONDAY
EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPID
MONDAY NIGHT JUST LIKE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO
NORMAL TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NEVADA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, YET DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, IT IS NOT TYPICALLY A FAVORED PATH FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY THE TERRAIN FOR
THE BEST CHANCES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN A FEW VALLEYS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF TERMINAL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
SOME NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL START
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL.
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6K FEET. LIGHT EAST WIND WILL GO
DOWNVALLEY THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE, ICING AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOME
SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP AND NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-
OFF IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NY/PA STATE LINE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS IS BEST
HANDLED WITH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING
CURRENT RADAR WELL. THIS BAND WILL MEANDER NORTH AND BRING 2-4
INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF
TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY
CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-
OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD
SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OR SOUTH A BIT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN
WITHOUT BENEFIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT.
RECORD LOWS COULD BE REACHED IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS A BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN THAN IN ROCHESTER WHERE CLOUDS MAY LAST LONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AND IN THE MID LEVELS WARMING WILL COMMENCE. TO OUR WEST
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL
GATHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE
MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FORM WITHIN THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMING ALOFT. THERE MAY BE A SIZABLE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIRMASS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY OVERCOME...BUT LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW TO FALL OVER WNY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CARRIES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS TO THEN
SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR SNOW.
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THERE MAY ALSO BE A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY
EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MILDER AIR FLOWING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT STILL YET TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND A SUCH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE FOUND TO START THE DAY...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS THEN FALLING
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MILDER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...THESE VALUES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG A NEARING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE TOWARDS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LOW LIKELY HERE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THERE MAY EVEN BE A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS...AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON THE TUG HILL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH... COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL... WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND... FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-
LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN SINCE THE START OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TRANSITION.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR MOST OF THE LAKESHORES TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
(FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND.
BUFFALO...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909
ROCHESTER...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974
WATERTOWN...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997
NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT. ROCHESTER
WAS 33 DEGREES AT 1 AM SO IT CANNOT BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMTODAY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 100 AM...A CLIPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO WAS ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A SHARP (NEARLY CLOSED OFF) UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF
IN PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE. THIS IS BEST HANDLED WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...WITH THE HRRR DEPICTING CURRENT RADAR
WELL AND OTHER GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF 2-4 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE...WITH
ACCUMULATION DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST AFTER THE LOW PASSES THIS MORNING. WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS STILL VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AND WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES IN
PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS...EVEN A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK COULD SHIFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH
OR SOUTH A BIT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH
CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -13C
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MESSY WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... BRINGING SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINISHING AS
RAIN.
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM WILL START ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -15C SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EQUATE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOW 20S CLOSE TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS & FLURRIES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IN TEMPERATURES FALLING ANY FARTHER OVERNIGHT. INTO SUNDAY... SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP... HELPING TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
ANY PEAKS OF SUNSHINE EARLY WILL QUICKLY FADE AS DENSE HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OUT OF A ROBUST WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON
WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY... A
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND FRONTOGENSIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. A SECONDARY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
AID IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE... AND WITH
STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES... CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH A PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST COMES IN FORECASTING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE TYPES OF
EVENT... FAIRLY DRY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. AS PRECIPITATION TRIES TO
OVERSPREAD THIS DRY AIRMASS... IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ERODE THIS
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE
THICKENING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERING WITH VIRGA OUT AHEAD OF
THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW... AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL AID IN ANY ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DYNAMICALLY
COOLING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION STARTS. THUS EXPECT A FEW TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAKING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...
BUT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH... WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER... KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN.
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL SEE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO A COUPLE TO A
FEW HOUR WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE FROM AROUND -5C AT THE
START OF THE EVENT TO AROUND +5C BY MONDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH... IF ANY... FREEZING RAIN MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES. COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE... AND IN
AREAS WHERE THAT AIR CAN GET TRAPPED IN VALLEYS IT WILL BE EVEN
SLOWER TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS... AS WELL AS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICING. BEHIND THIS NARROW TRANSITION AREA...
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH THE ENTIRE AREA OVER
TO RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH IN WESTERN NY... ABOUT A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN GENESEE VALLEY... AND ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD... WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO M50S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ON MONDAY... BUT WITH
LIGHTER INTENSITY THAN THE MORE STEADY RAIN SEEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOWEST ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES... WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ALREADY WITH TIMING AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF
NOTABLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT
DEVELOPS A BAROCLINIC WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN GEM HAVE A MUCH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...
FOR NOW HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK.
STILL...THE AIRMASS MAY GROW JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH...
COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL...
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUNSHINE AND STEADY WARM
ADVECTION WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN OF WINTER-LIKE COLD WE HAVE BEEN IN
SINCE THE START OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. THIS WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON BUF/IAG/ROC...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
08Z TO 16Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THIS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
JHW WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS CLIPPER LOW WITH VSBY LOWERING TO
1-2SM IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING
WITH RADAR/MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A CONSISTENT ESTIMATE ON
TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE HERE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE IN THE
NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND DIMINISHES
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING...DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF KROC/KDSV.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW MIXING WITH AND THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TRANSITION.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE A COMPACT CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
NORTHEASTERLIES/NORTHERLIES AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER WAVES TO LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES. LISTED BELOW ARE THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
(FAHRENHEIT) FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND.
BUFFALO...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...17...1972
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...19...1909
ROCHESTER...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...29...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...26...1909
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...16...1974
WATERTOWN...
SATURDAY...APRIL 9TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...28...1974
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...14...1997
SUNDAY....APRIL 10TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM...33...1989
.......................RECORD LOW MINIMUM...13...1997
NOTE: A CLIMATIC DAY IS BETWEEN 1 AM EDT TO 1 AM EDT.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER DATE BACK TO
1871...WHILE WATERTOWN TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
909 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER SUNSHINE AS A
MOISTURE LIMITED CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA SKIRTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. VERY COLD AIR IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTN
UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS NC ZONES...AND 30-35 ACROSS SC. BOTH BUFR WIND
PROFILES AS WELL AS RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WILL TAP A
40-45 KT JET...AND THIS SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 10AM THROUGH
4PM...AND ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS WINDS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...THE DOORS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL OPEN
UP TODAY IN WAKE OF A TRANSITING DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR TO SPILL SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC...AS A CLIPPER
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE
FREEZE WARNING AND WATCH CONFIGURATION...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO RAISE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING OVER INLAND
GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES...AND WILL ALLOW THE LUXURY
OF ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO FINE TUNE THE LAY-OUT WITH REGARD TO OUR
VERY SOUTHERN SC COUNTIES. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED TODAY DESPITE
ISOLATED GUSTY CONDITIONS...LOCAL CRITERIA STANDS AT...31-39 MPH
SUSTAINED FOR AN HOUR OR ANY GUSTS OF 46-57 MPH...AND BELIEVE WE
WILL BE SHY OF THAT. THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER HOWEVER AND THIS IS DISCUSSED AT LENGTH IN THE FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.
RECORD LOWS FOR FOR APRIL 10TH INCLUDE ILM 31 IN 2007...FLO 28 IN
1996...AND CRE 33 IN 1996. THESE RECORDS ARE VERY NEAR FORECAST
VALUES FOR EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE LEADING WEATHER HEADLINE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL A NEAR RECORD COLD START DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A 40 DEGREE WARM UP A LITTLE OVER 30 HOURS LATER DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY RISE WELL INTO THE
70S. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
AND HEAT-INDUCED CUMULUS MONDAY IN THE WARMING TREND...NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE IS EXPECTED IN FAIR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES NEAR...BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE END OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL COME
ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL SHOOT BACK UP OVER
1.25 INCHES IN INCREASING S-SW WINDS. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
INCREASED SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO TUES EVE.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW POST FROPA WED THROUGH FRI...GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE NE. MODELS DEFINITELY SHOW SOME
INCONSISTENCIES WHEN IT COMES TO MID WEEK BUT FALL BACK IN LINE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST
GFS KEEPS SHORTWAVE RIDING WAY SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR
THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WINNING OUT. BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS
LOW UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THURS INTO FRI WITH MORE OF A
WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
WITH HIGH BUILDING DOWN FOR WED AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS
ON THURS. BEST CHC OF PCP WOULD BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURS
INTO FRI BUT WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FORECAST FOR NOW WITH LOW END
POPS THURS INTO FRI.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON TUES...MID 70S MOST
PLACES. POST FROPA...EXPECT COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WED THROUGH
THURS BUT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SUN THERE IS. BETTER
CHC OF CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP WED AND THURS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
60S BUT BY FRI OR DEFINITELY BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO
THE 70S AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS TO BE AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND AROUND SUNSET ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM SATURDAY...AFTER REVIEW OF LATEST SOUNDINGS AND
VWP...HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250 AND AMZ252 FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KTS THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE SCA REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE SC WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 636 AM SATURDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS
TODAY BECAUSE OF W WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WINDS TO
THE NW AS COLD AIR SETS IN TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
EASE LATE TONIGHT AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL SETTLE NEARLY AS
QUICKLY SO THE ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VASTLY IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL EASE
WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS BOTH DAYS AS WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SETS OFF TO SEA. ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FOOT SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD WAVES OF DISTANT ORIGIN
ARE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT SPECTRAL BULLETINS AT FRYING PAN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH UP TO 15 KTS. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH
TO KICK SEAS UP A BIT...FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY TUES UP TO 3 TO
4 FT BY TUES NIGHT. ONCE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES
NIGHT...WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH...VEERING TO THE N-NE
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE WATERS. THE
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP A LITTLE FURTHER...UP TO
4 TO 5 FT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.
INCREASING W-NW WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH. AT
THE SAME TIME...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
THIS COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MEET
RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NORTH CAROLINA
FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
8 PM...WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM.
ALTHOUGH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILARLY DANGEROUS TO
FIRES ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FUEL MOISTURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AND JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SOUTH
CAROLINA FORESTRY...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED
RATHER THAN AN RFW. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA FOR TODAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-053.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ039-055.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>107-109.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...MJC/JDW/RGZ
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
BUMPED UP WIND GRIDS A BIT MORE AS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ABOVE EXPECTED...BUT THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AND SHOULD NOT HAVE TO UPGRADE. TEMPS
SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR WESTERN TIER...AND WITH
THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT VALUES FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THINK THAT
RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT SO WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN
SOCIAL MEDIA AND HWO AND LEAVE OUT ANY RED FLAGS FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET
OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS
ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH
SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS
AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY.
OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE.
COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN
THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD
KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT
THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS
THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
BY TUE MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...TO THE TUNE OF AROUND 2500 FT.
MET GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AS LOW AS 1000-2000 FT...BUT NAM BUFR AND
MAV GUIDANCE ARE A MOS CATEGORY OR TWO HIGHER. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS STILL ON HOW LOW OF CIGS WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35
PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE E LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF REGINA
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO AROUND GLASGOW AND BILLINGS IN
EASTERN MONTANA. ALONG THE TROUGH IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WINDS
ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND HUMIDITIES ARE
DROPPING WITH BEACH AND MEDORA FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AT 11
AM MDT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. FARTHER
NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE AND AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES
REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY AND WE WILL SEE
IF LOW TO MID 30 DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM LOWER AS WE MIX OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. IF NOT WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE
NORTH WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. CERTAINLY WILL KEEP IT GOING CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIND ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR OVER
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT A
WHILE BUT WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI HAVE DROPPED OFF
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY AND WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS POSTED AFTER 1 PM.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS TO A MIX OF HRRR/PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS
LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER-PERFORMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS
NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO
LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL
HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
A COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT KISN TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT KDIK BETWEEN
18Z-20Z...AT KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 20Z-22Z...AND AT KJMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS
MORNING. THE NAM/EC LOOK TO VERIFY THIS QUITE WELL BUT THE GFS
LOOKS TOO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER-PERFOMING COMPARED TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THICK CIRRUS
NORTH IS PROBABLY HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK THERE A BIT. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY...TRENDING TEMPS JUST A LITTLE LOWER. BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING AS WE ARE STILL GETTING AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CURRENT WIND HAZARDS ALSO
LOOK GOOD. WILL FRESHEN THESE UP ALSO BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL
HAZARD. ADJUSTED SKY COVER HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
COLD TEMPS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
ARE NOT YET REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP THE TREND OF SOME LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE FOR HIGHS...WITH THE RAP AND GFS TRYING TO BUMP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO THE 50 MARK WHILE OTHER MODELS BARELY GET
OUT OF THE 20S. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MID DAY UPDATE. WINDS
ARE RAMPING UP AND STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR THE ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS AT KDVL WITH THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS YET. THIS GRADIENT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. ONLY HAVE SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE AREA AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS A RESULT OF THE WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...SEEING THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING UP OVER WESTERN ND WITH
SOUTH-SE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ONLY SEEING
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 00Z SUN...BRINGING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS FA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...ONLY NEGATIVE WOULD BE THAT WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS...OR OVER 40 KNOTS
AT 925MB OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY.
OTHER MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO NORTH
VALLEY COMPONENT IS THERE.
COULD BE MARGINAL AT TIMES BUT DEFINITELY THINK IT IS WORTH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST. IN
THESE SITUATIONS THE WORST WINDS ARE TYPICALLY FROM KCKN UP TOWARD
KHCO AND PEMBINA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. AS THE SFC LOW WORKS INTO CENTRAL ND
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IT WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH IT AS WELL AS WESTERLY WINDS. NEITHER OF THESE LOOK
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SO AGAIN THERE WILL BE A
LARGE SW TO NE HIGH TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FA. MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE MUCH PCPN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT
THEY DO SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY TOWARD
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST ALREADY HAD
SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP THOSE GOING. AS
THE SFC LOW OR SFC LOWS MOVE THRU THE FA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN UP AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE FA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT ALSO MEANS SOME CHILLY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
BY TUE MORNING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CANADA. LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA REMAINS THERE BUT ALSO WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUE. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR WED. TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE FOR THU AND DECREASED
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FOR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AT
KDVL/KGFK/KFAR AND KTVF...WITH LESS EFFECTS AT KBJI. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO REMAIN THAT WAY THRU THE DAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO KDVL
AROUND 03Z-06Z SUN AND KGFK/KFAR AROUND 06-09Z...WHICH WILL BEGIN
A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT
THESE NW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL
BUT EITHER WAY VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 30-35
PERCENT AND WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT AND WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE HIGHER.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ALL WE DID WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS BLEND OBSERVATIONS INTO HOURLY FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE
IN WINDS TO ADVISORY STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO 14 UTC...
AND THOSE SIMULATIONS ALSO STILL SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 29 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL
ND THROUGH MIDDAY...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...AND A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT
ALL SUPPORTING 45-55 KT 850-MB FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ND FROM 12 TO
18 UTC TODAY AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
APPLYING THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS NEAR-SURFACE MIXING DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MEAN MIXED-LAYER WIND NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE HIGHWAY
83 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 35 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
FOR US TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS...BEGINNING AND
ENDING SOONEST OVER CENTRAL ND AND STARTING AND ENDING LATEST IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE DYNAMIC WIND RESPONSE IS TIED TO THE 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON
EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S F ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH
THE RECENTLY-WELL-PERFORMING 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF USED TO
CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS F AS OF 08 UTC. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...AND THAT AIR MASS WILL APPROACH ND BY LATE DAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO MODIFY INITIALLY GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND
RELATIVELY DRY SOILS AND MOSTLY-DORMANT VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.
WE THUS RELIED ON THE DRIEST EDGE OF MODEL HUMIDITY GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY /THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL LATELY/. WE THUS
ARE CALLING FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT EAST CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN SOUTHWEST ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMULATE A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 700 MB IN MANY PLACES BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT
LAYER WILL RUN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. THAT WILL YIELD GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN WESTERN ND...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT...A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN ND...AND SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ND WHERE POINT-BASED SOUNDINGS FROM OVERNIGHT RAP RUNS
SUGGEST THE WELL-MIXED...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT IT
WILL DO SO IN A MAINLY DRY FASHION WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MUCH COOLER...BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND RESUMES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON TRACK TO INCREASE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY TOO. THEN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CALL
FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH TO SHIFT FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD
RISING HEIGHTS /RIDGING/ OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INITIALLY WITH A
STOUT WARMING TREND LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER VARIATIONS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THAT POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN DEPICTING SOME
UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FOR US TO CARRY
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO
SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA BY DAYBREAK...AND MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS FAVORED FOR KJMS WITH AROUND 26 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 36 KNOTS FROM AROUND 16Z TO AROUND 22Z.
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 17Z-20Z.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
ND TO A RED FLAG WARNING...AND AFTER MUCH DELIBERATION ALSO CHOSE
TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH IN
THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND...WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERED UP A
TREND TOWARD A FURTHER-EAST REACH OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH IS WHY WE EXTENDED THE WARNING
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH. FINALLY...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND TODAY...BUT THE
STRONGEST /SOUTHERLY/ WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL BEGIN RELAXING WHEN
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
WHY WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FINALLY...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND SUNDAY TOO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND THAT RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GO.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-
031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT
/NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-
042-045-046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
808 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY
BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON
THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION
APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW
FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C
OVER THE AREA AT 850MB.
ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR
SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS
OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER
WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE
MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEAVY SNOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
CAK/YNG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
OUT OF MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT SITES IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...MAINLY 14-18Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE IN THE 22-
00Z WINDOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...BELIEVE THE SNOW SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA SHORTLY
BUT HESITATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY HEADLINE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS ON
THE OBSERVATION. 6AM KTOL WAS STILL REPORTED 1 1/2SM IN SNOW SO
WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE CIRCULATION
APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE CENTERED NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL PA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST FLOW
FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW IS
ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THIS SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER UP THE LAKESHORE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHERLY WITH THE SAME EFFECT. STILL EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO
DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING IN TO THE AFTERNOON WITH -14C
OVER THE AREA AT 850MB.
ORIGINAL...WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE
ABLE TO MAKE CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR
SHORT TERM POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS
OVER NERN OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER
WEST AS WELL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW
TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE
MORNING TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL KEEP WINTER WX HEADLINE AS IS FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE
CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE... FOR NOW...RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
CORRELATES WELL WITH RADAR AND HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR SHORT TERM
POP GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW IS OVER NERN
OHIO. NLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE NOW IS PULLING SNOW BACK SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. THIS WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DRAWN BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AS WELL
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TOO WILL SINK SE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO TAPER
OFF NORTHWEST BY DAWN. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE POP IN FOR THE MORNING
TO COVER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST FOR THE
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED IN NERN OHIO
TOWARDS MID DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST PLACES. FOR THE DAYTIME...AM
EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EAST HALF WITH 1-2 FROM ASHTABULA
TO ERIE TO YNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL
HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO
BUT ON BALANCE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN LAKES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN IL SOUTH TO MS.
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. DID BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TOWARDS
MORNING BUT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 8AM WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER 06Z THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHADED
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS WHICH TAKES THE COLD FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT FAILS TO DROP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS TO START
BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. -6
TO -8C 850 AIR WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NORTH WINDS. WILL
HAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL DRY
OUT FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A CHANGE BACK TO MORE REASONABLE CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST ARE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WEATHERWISE TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AS THIS
OCCURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH COLDER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING ELONGATED AREA OF SNOW FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE LAKE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE. SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AS IS ALREADY IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. NOT EXPECTING WAVES TO BE SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE. EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-006>009-018-019-029-030.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection will develop and expand this evening across NE OK with
further development eastward and southward overnight. Flight
conditions will generally be impacted by both lowering overnight
ceilings and with expanding coverage of heavier convection.
Widespread MVFR to periodic IFR conditions can be expected into
Monday morning...with a gradual improving trend from north to
south during the day Monday as convection shifts southward.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from
eastern KS into the OK panhandle...with dryline into northwestern
OK southward into the TX panhandle. Some convection has fired near
the dryline across the TX panhandle over the past 1-2 hours...and
latest HRRR output suggests that some of this activity will make a
run east toward our forecast area during the evening hours. Also
anticipating an increase in convection along the front across
southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and
backs. While the southern activity may have a tendency to weaken
with time as it tracks east...clusters of storms associated with
the front will impact parts of northeast OK and eventually
northwest AR later tonight...with large hail/strong winds/heavy
rainfall being the main threat.
With the approach of a triple-point low...the severe weather
threat will transition into southeast OK/western AR Monday
afternoon. At least modest afternoon heating will mixed-layer CAPE
values around 2000-3000 J/kg in the smallish warm sector...and any
backed low-level flow ahead of triple-point will enhance the
tornado threat. This activity will shift east with time...with the
severe threat diminishing toward midnight.
Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid-
week...although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of
the better moisture south of the forecast area.
A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend...with
shower/thunderstorm chances increasing especially in the latter
half of the weekend. The extended models are still struggling with
how this system evolves/ejects east...so will continue to keep
pops in the chance category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 69 40 65 / 90 60 10 0
FSM 64 76 46 66 / 30 80 60 0
MLC 66 72 47 67 / 50 60 20 0
BVO 56 64 36 64 / 90 60 10 0
FYV 60 66 40 61 / 70 80 50 0
BYV 59 62 38 61 / 80 80 50 0
MKO 63 70 41 65 / 70 70 20 0
MIO 57 63 37 62 / 90 80 20 0
F10 63 70 43 65 / 60 60 10 0
HHW 65 76 51 67 / 30 60 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF RAIN IS STAYING FURTHER
SOUTH SO FAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OK THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR... A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JUST BE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE... ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR
THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE FA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 20 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 56 85 56 / 30 10 10 40
GAGE OK 73 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 73 58 78 64 / 40 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
826 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FURTHER NE THIS MORNING FOR
THE LINE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE FA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 20 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
09/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL BKN TO OVC STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH MAY IMPACT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW EARLY.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY... DID
NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. OVERALL... EXPECT VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... WITH
DECKS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN TO AVIATORS... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS... GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD... RELAXING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.
KURTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS SQUARELY ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENTLY... MID TO HIGH STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTHWEST... CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE THAT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY BUILD E/NE ACROSS THE LLANO ESTACADO THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND W/SW OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DECENT CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING H500 TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY. INCREASED WAA AND SUFFICIENT BL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROCEED THE TROUGH AND RESULT IN MID 50S TO 60S
DEW POINTS POOLING HEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS REMAIN... HOWEVER... WITHIN THE MESOSCALE DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. WITH THAT SAID... AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED... CELLULAR IN NATURE... WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THE BETTER FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NEARING THE KANSAS BORDER... ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES S/SE AND THE LLJ INCREASES.
EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO SHIFT FROM SINGLE CELL TO MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/COMPLEX/MCS STRUCTURE. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY... THE RESULTANT MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SLIDE E/SE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT A MENAGERIE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL RECOVER AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW
AND DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT THOUGHTS
WOULD SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE RECOVERED
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTING REMNANT OUTFLOWS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... NEAR/AROUND I-35. WITH CONTINUED WAA IN S/SE OKLAHOMA...
CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG... WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... FROM I-35 TO ATOKA AND BRYAN...
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO... BUT OVERALL... WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. SFC WINDS VEER RATHER QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY... SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING... BUT INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
800 TO 700MB WILL INFLUENCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY... GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SHAKY GRASP ON WIND
SPEEDS. MANUALLY ADJUSTED SPEEDS UP AFTER USING A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE RAP AND MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO APPROACH 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35. OVERALL... WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SOME GOOD NEWS... INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST...
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY... TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS... BUT AGAIN...
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST... BUT REGARDLESS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
KURTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 55 85 56 / 20 20 10 60
HOBART OK 71 55 87 54 / 30 10 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 56 85 56 / 40 10 10 40
GAGE OK 75 51 88 46 / 10 10 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 75 51 87 49 / 10 30 10 80
DURANT OK 75 58 78 64 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 02Z SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST
VIRGA. EARLIER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ICING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS SFC
TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND
REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE
OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE
RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMTS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES BY 12Z.
NATIONALBLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS
TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS CONTINUING...AS LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL PA. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NW MTNS.
SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES
THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS
TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THIS IS ALOFT WITH NOTHING NOTED IN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT STEADY PRECIP TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN IN DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO IFR IN RAIN AND
FOG. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AND THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS
06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES
IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE
HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE
SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES
HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A
GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT GEFS ENSEMBLES...AND MID
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GEFS HAS ONE TO TWO PWAT
ANOMALIES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION 06Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR
THAT BOUNDARY ARE HOW MUCH QPF AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN
THE LOWER SUSQ...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED QPFS BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE NW MTNS TO THE
LOWER SUSQ AND MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ONLY BE
FREEZING OR LOWER ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER. SO GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY
RAIN...THOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. LATEST GUIDANCE ON THIS FRONT REMAIN
CONSISTENT...THOUGH EC HAS A SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF
REMAINS HIGHER PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPFS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE
ENOUGH THROUGH THE NW MTNS FOR SNOWFALL...THOUGH GIVEN SFC TEMPS
SHOULD BE MIXED...AND WET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE TO CAA
IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRING
IN THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN
AROUND THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER
THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS ON THE NJ COAST AS OF MID DAY...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
THE OVERALL SHIELD OF PRECIP SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY FROM NORTHERN CENTRE DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTY...IS MADE TO CONTINUE OFF TO THE
SE EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BY THE TIME IT MAKES
IT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNLESS WE HAVE
HEAVY PRECIP RATES...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE RAIN MIXED IN THE
SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER WITH HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLES
HAVING HELPED TEMPERATURES RECOVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
IT IS STILL SNOWING WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE
ADVISORY UP FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL BRING A
GUSTY NNW WIND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE STATE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROVIDE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY MORNING SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AS
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF ATLANTIC CITY AND WILL CONTINUE OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS ARE STILL SUB VFR...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING FOR THE MOST PART...AND IFR/LIFE OCCURRINGIN
THE SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW THAT CONTINUE TO ROTATE DOWN AROUND
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ON A GUST NNW WIND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
OR BECOME VFR BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS FROM JST-BFD WILL SEE THE USUAL LOWER CONDITION LINGER
THE LONGEST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
HANG TOUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY VFR AFTER THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
TUE...MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
809 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/12Z TAFS THROUGH 10/12Z | ISSUED 755 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENEWD FROM SOUTHEAST PA TO OFFSHORE THE
NJ COAST. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LIFT HAS FOSTERED A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK. DRY-AIR SLOT SHOULD KEEP JST/AOO ABOVE IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHSN WRAP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MID DAY.
PERSISTENCE FCST AT BFD/IPT WITH SOLID IFR OR LOWER THRU 16Z.
EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR/LIFR STILL IN QUESTION INVOF MDT/LNS
AS PCPN EXPANDS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE NJ
COAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS FROM 360-330 BEHIND THE LOW
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE
EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 525 AM EDT 4/9/16
09Z UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAFS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/HIRES
MODELS AND SFC TEMPS. EXPECT STEADIEST SNOW AND LONGER DURATION
OF IFR VIS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. DRYSLOT
SHOULD LIMIT IFR AT AOO AND PERHAPS UNV AND HIRES GUIDANCE BREAKS
UP SECOND AREA OF SNOW PIVOTING NW OF SFC LOW TRACK. RISING SFC
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS SUGGESTS RA/SN MIX
AND IMPROVED VIS BUT HEAVIER PCPN RATES MAY FAVOR SN PTYPE AND IFR
VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE AMD/S AS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT
CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.
PREVIOUS...SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM
NORTHEAST OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND
STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF
SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL
PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING
UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS
TO 2SM OR LOWER. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE
MORE INTERMITTENT -SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO
JST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB
AIRFIELD MIN. THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN
AIRSPACE. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE
WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE
EVENING (EAST). LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
512 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-041-045-046-049>053-057>059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING
LATE-SEASON SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH A SHARP LINE BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...AND VERY LITTLE SNOW
/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS/ AS A COMPACT ALBEIT POTENT
UPPER VORT MAX NEAR KCLE AT 0830Z ROTATES ESE ACROSS SCENT PENN
TODAY.
HAVE EMPLOYED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HRRRX TO FINE
TUNE /AND SLIGHTLY LOWER/ SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. 7 MEMBER SPC SSEO APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE BY
INJECTING A FEW MEMBERS /AKA NAM CONUS NEST/ THAT BLEEDS IN TOO
MUCH QPF FROM THE SOUTH WHERE DRY SLOTTING IS LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY DOWNSLOPING/DRYING WSW LLVL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC/UPPER VORT TRACK /INVOF AND S OF THE RT22/322 AND I-76
CORRIDORS/. THERE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS SNOW WILL FALL
TODAY...WHILE 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY IN A RATHER NARROW
SWATH FROM NEAR KBFD...SE TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KIPT...TO THE WRN
POCONOS...WHERE ONE-TWO FGEN BANDS OF MDT OT HVY WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
07Z RUN OF THE 13KM RAP /AND VERY SIMILAR 07Z HRRR/ IMPLIES THAT
THE FGEN BANDING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE AS THE
ENERGY ALOFT IS MORE QUICKLY TRANSFERRED TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TARGET AREA OF THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHIFTING TO NEAR AND SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KMDT AND
KHZL.
88D MOSAIC LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
MTNS...ALONG WITH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE SOME RAIN IS MIXED
IN THANKS TO A PRECEDING WEDGE OF 925 MB WET BULB TEMPS OF AROUND
PLUS 2C. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN KBFD...KFIG
AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. SOMEWHAT
LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS COULD KEEP ACCUMS AT AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH 15Z.
SNOW AMTS OVER THE SCENT MTNS BETWEEN KAOO AND KHGR WILL BE NIL
THIS MORNING.
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF THE
WINT WX ADVISORY...BUT TRIMMED AMOUNTS BY ABOUT ONE INCH IN THE
VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL
SHOULD OVERCOME THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 5 OR 66 INCHES STILL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE ALONG
I-81 WHICH TRACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PTS OF SCHUYLKILL CO.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM
HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT
RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA GETS INTO DRY SLOT
SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAKS OF SUN LIKELY BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE
CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDS.
CLIMO FOR SUNDAY SHOWS THAT RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS LOWS PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
/JUST BEFORE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON
THE 11TH/.
ANY MORNING SUN SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EAST...AND EVEN
THERE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS WAA RAMPS UP QUICKLY.
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW STARTS OFF
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/WET SNOW
LATER SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...EVEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE MARGINAL.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-
046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
258 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD
UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE
NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR
NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN
KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SFC.
THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN
WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS
DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER
ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z.
SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY
TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF
LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST
CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING.
A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY
12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
MOISTURE PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER
THE SE COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY
ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1.
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED
TO EXPAND WINT WX ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME
MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST
ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN
DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA
SUGGESTS.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY
LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH
BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA
GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY
BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING
WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS
PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH
TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW
STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT
RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT
THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS THROUGH 10/06Z | ISSUED 255 AM EDT 4/9/16
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM NORTHEAST OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS MORNING...THEN REFORM AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NJ
COAST THIS AFTN/EVE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD IMPACT MOST CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW APPROACHING UNV-BFD LINE 07-08Z
WITH UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTING QUICK DROP IN VIS TO 2SM OR LOWER.
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BAND FILLING-IN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE THE SW 1/4 OF THE AIRSPACE SHOULD SEE MORE INTERMITTENT
-SHSN WITH VARIABLE VIS. UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW INTO JST SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. COSPA/HRRR SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW INVOF MDT/LNS 11-16Z WITH POSSIBLE VIS DROP AOB AIRFIELD MIN.
THERE COULD BE MORE RA/SN MIX AFT 15Z IN THE SERN AIRSPACE. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE WITH PEAK GUSTS IN
THE 25-35KT RANGE THIS AFTN (WEST) INTO THE EVENING (EAST). LOOK
FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY
SUN...VFR/NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...MVFR CIGS/RAIN/MIX PSBL NW 1/4. VFR/-SHRA SE 3/4.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-
046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
205 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT DISTURBANCE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A DEEP/COLD
UPPER TROF WILL BRING ACCUMULATING LATE-SEASON SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
88D MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BUT RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HEADED OVER THE
NW MTNS SHORTLY. THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL SET UP FROM FAR
NWRN PENN...SE TO NEAR KUNV...SEG AND KMDT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD IN MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS BETWEEN
KBFD...KFIG AND KUNV COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/WATER RATIOS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SFC.
THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND ACROSS SCENT PENN
WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT I-76 WITH A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VSBYS
DOWN TO AROUND 1/4SM. HOWEVER...SNOW AMTS THERE SHOULD BE UNDER
ONE INCH THROUGH 12Z.
SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAWN ACROSS THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY
TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FOR A BRIEF INITIAL PERIOD OF
LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. AS TYPICAL FOR MOST
CLIPPERS...MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM IS LIMITED...BUT
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF POTENT MID LVL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING.
A BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF ALSO SUPPORTS 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUM BY
12Z SAT ACROSS THE NW MTNS INTO THE SC MTNS. LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED FROM KIPT AND KMDT EASTWARD BY 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT TO SE PA AFTER 12Z...AS
SECONDARY LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. MOISTURE
PLUME ASSOC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET WILL BE OVER THE SE
COUNTIES...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KPHL NWRD TOWARD KUNV. HIGH APRIL
SUN ANGLE/MARGINAL SFC TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT
SNOW ACCUMS...WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS BLW 10/1. HOWEVER...BASED ON
UPDATED WPC AND 18Z MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WINT WX
ADVISORY INTO PART OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE BURSTS OF
MOD-HVY SNOWFALL SHOULD OVERCOME MENTIONED OBSTACLES TO PRODUCE A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUM. HIGHEST ACCUMS OF 6+ CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON
THE RIDGETOPS OF FROM NORTHERN DAUPHIN CO NE INTO SCHUYLKILL
CO...AS THE 12Z SPC SSEO DATA SUGGESTS.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING
THE AM HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...HIGH SUN ANGLE SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY JUST WET ROAD SURFACES. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL YIELD GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE PM HOURS.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE BY
LATE IN THE DAY...PROBABLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MUCH
BLOWING/DRIFTING.
HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LAUREL HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AM HOURS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THIS AREA
GETS INTO DRY SLOT SOUTH OF SFC LOW TRACK WITH BREAK OF SUN LIKELY
BTWN 14Z-18Z.
HIGHS SAT AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY COLD SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...AS CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT /-10 TO -16C AT 850MB/ WORKS OVR THE REGION AS
SFC HIGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN THE CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING
WIND NECESSARY FOR IDEAL RADIATING CONDS. A LOOK AT CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY SUGGESTS RECORD LOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS LOWS
PLUMMET BACK WELL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S /JUST BEFORE OUR
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BEGINS IN THE LOWER SUSQ ON THE 11TH/.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH
TRAVERSES THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WELL BLW NORMAL AS FLOW
STARTS OFF NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE W/SW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LGT
RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NW MTNS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING - THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE JUST A BIT WARMER AT
THE SURFACE...BUT INCREASING SW LLJET WILL BE TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE AND ABOVE 0C TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS A SFC LOW WEST OF PA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING THRU MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO POPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.
TUE NOW LOOKS COOLER THAN PREV GUIDANCE BUT FAIR/COOL WX FINALLY
ARRIVES FOR MORE THAN JUST A QUICK VISIT ON WED AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO PA...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRI.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE
AND DUE TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL
FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE DIMINSHED TO GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN SN. STRONG WINDS BECOME A CONCERN LATER SATURDAY
AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NJ COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLSN
BEING AN ISSUE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND BRAKING ACTION.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
SAT NGT-SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS/BCMG VFR. DECREASING WINDS.
SUN NGT-AM MON...RAIN/MIX PSBL NRN AIRSPACE.
MON...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH OCNL SUB-VFR.
TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL WEST. VFR CENTRAL/EAST. NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ041-046-049>053-057>059-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ012-
018-019-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ006-011.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH
EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES
ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO
THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL
OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF
BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES
COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 85 68 80 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 70 82 64 81 65 / 40 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 69 93 68 84 68 / 50 0 10 20 50
ALICE 70 90 67 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 71 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 67 91 63 81 65 / 50 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 71 89 69 82 70 / 40 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 71 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
GENERATED LIFT OVER A REGION OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE FWD 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING IN
ADDITION TO HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD ANY
STORMS REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED
DRAMATICALLY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AREA-WIDE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IF A COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOTION OF THIS
COMPLEX WOULD STILL BE PRIMARILY EAST/NORTHEAST...THEREFORE KEEPING
IT LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR SAN ANGELO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD EASTWARD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
STALLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 717 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A KSNK /SNYDER/ TO KSPS /WICHITA
FALLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WEST OF A KMAF /MIDLAND/ TO KDRT /DEL RIO/ LINE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OF THE COMPUTER MODELS /THE HRRR/
IS INDICATING THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS STORMS MOVES NORTHEAST...SOME SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE
CHANCES OF STORMS AT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND
03Z AT WACO AND 05Z FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD THEN STICK AROUND UNTIL 16-18Z MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME 25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR MATAGORDA
BAY. THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FEATURE HAS ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DOWNWARD TREND
IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS
HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY MIXING...THUS IT HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN 700MB THRUST HAS BEEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE SOME
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTH TEXAS. OUR AREA OF
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS THE SUNNY BIG COUNTRY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
NEAR 3000J/KG. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DOWNWARD MOTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY. THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL REMAIN
OPEN THROUGH SUNSET...AND ANY CELLS THAT FORM WILL TRACK THROUGH A
SIMILARLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO BOWIE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHILE THIS WOULD PRECLUDE THE WIND
THREAT...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STORMS
THIS EVENING. AS 850MB WINDS REACH 50KTS LATE TONIGHT...
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED...ALBEIT LIKELY NON-SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE
ENTERING OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG
ITS PATH...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURGING DRYLINE PEELS UP A BUOYANT SURFACE
LAYER. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL
MAKE MORE RAPID PROGRESS NORTH OF I-20...WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT...A STUBBORN CAP MAY
PERSIST...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER ON THE HUMID SIDE...DIMINISHING
THE NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN
END TO THE STORM CHANCES.
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL
SURFACE LAYER WILL ENSUE...AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL REGIONWIDE. A RAIN-FREE INTERLUDE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 82 52 70 53 / 20 20 5 5 30
WACO 67 84 52 71 52 / 30 20 5 10 40
PARIS 66 79 51 68 47 / 20 60 20 5 20
DENTON 66 80 48 68 48 / 20 20 5 5 30
MCKINNEY 67 79 49 69 49 / 20 30 10 5 20
DALLAS 68 82 54 70 53 / 20 30 5 5 30
TERRELL 68 81 52 70 51 / 20 30 20 5 30
CORSICANA 68 83 54 70 53 / 30 30 10 10 30
TEMPLE 67 84 53 72 54 / 30 20 5 10 50
MINERAL WELLS 64 81 47 68 50 / 30 10 5 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE
SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED
STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY
AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW
00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE
FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500
J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS
EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER
ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY.
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE
I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND
10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR
AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST
A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN
INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE
CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE
COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.
THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR
QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME
MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
DECREASING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW
AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 86 58 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 85 57 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 57 76 60 / 50 20 - 10 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 85 54 72 56 / 30 10 - 10 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 88 58 78 62 / 70 0 - 20 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 56 73 56 / 30 20 - 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 57 78 61 / 70 10 - 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 57 76 59 / 50 20 - 10 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 81 61 76 61 / 50 40 10 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 86 58 77 61 / 50 20 - 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO
THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL
OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF
BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES
COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50
ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 70 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50
ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 70 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE
AT KAUS THROUGH 19Z...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...STUBBORN IFR CIGS AT KDRT SHOULD SLOWLY RISE INTO MVFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY INTO VFR BY EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND SUSPECT MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z-07Z ACROSS MOST SITES. CIGS SHOULD
ALSO MANAGE TO DIP INTO IFR AT KSAT AND KDRT AFTER 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A 700MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE
MOMENT WHICH IS SERVING TO PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL FOCUSED LIFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB ARE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING. ECHO TOPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KFT AND ARE
VERY TILTED...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR UPDRAFTS TO REACH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE 700 MB
SHORTWAVE AS IT EXITS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST...WV IMAGERY IS
INDICATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WHILE AT THE LOW
LEVELS...SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POP
CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND KEEPING SLIGHT AND LOW END CHC POPS GOING FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE AUSTIN AREA AND NORTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS MOVES
THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS.
UPWARD FORCING GENERATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL CAPE AND A CAPPING
INVERSION INDICATES ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOLAR HEATING ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW
POSSIBLY TAKING THEM INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
THE CALIFORNIA COAST OPENS UP THIS WEEKEND AND MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
UPWARD FORCING REDEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL UPWARD FORCING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.
MODERATE CAPE AND A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION INDICATE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
AND SPC HAS AREAS EAST OF A LEXINGTON TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE IN A
MARGINAL RISK. THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY. PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS BREAKS OFF BY MONDAY AND APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS
ON TUESDAY AND MOVES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPWARD FORCING AGAIN DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG UPWARD FORCING GENERATES SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO THE DRYLINE.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE
COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS FORECAST...NEXT WEEKEND...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 64 80 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 61 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 63 81 68 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 61 79 66 87 / 40 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 63 85 65 91 / 20 10 10 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 63 79 68 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 81 66 89 / 20 10 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 79 67 86 / 40 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 63 80 70 83 / 40 10 10 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 63 80 67 88 / 40 10 10 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 64 81 68 88 / 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
Issued by National Weather Service Midland TX
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Morning showers and thunderstorms moving east are nearly out of
the area and will likely not affect any terminals the rest of
today. A few sites will hold MVFR ceilings into the early
afternoon before VFR ceilings prevail heading into tonight.
Forecast is dry through this TAF period, but MVFR ceilings make a
return after 06Z tonight for most TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 59 85 61 83 / 10 10 30 5
San Angelo 60 85 60 82 / 10 20 30 0
Junction 60 81 64 87 / 10 10 20 5
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AT
RGV TERMINALS IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS
MOVING OUT TOWARD THE EAST ATTM. MOS GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS VERY WELL AT ALL. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SCT LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. SE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
BREEZY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH AS TRANSIENT UPR RIDGE FORMS A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION ABOVE THE SFC LAYER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ENDING
BY MID-MORNING...IF NOT BEFORE...AS DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TIMING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
INHERITED GRIDS REFLECT THIS QUITE WELL...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO
POP/WX.
SERLY BREEZES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MOST
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMALS.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK H5 RIDGING MOVES IN...WITH LOW
TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE CWFA. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...SO
WINDS COULD STAY LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS MID-LVL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
WSW. WESTERN STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES
F IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SERLY WINDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
COURTESY OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST 500 MB FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RELATIVELY DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NO
MAJOR COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL ENSURE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH
AND TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SCEC-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
FOR GULF WATERS TODAY. CURRENT SEAS OF AROUND 3FT WILL BUILD TO NR
6FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN NR THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIKELY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE MAINLY TO
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN AREA OF SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT
THE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA MAY HELP TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF
DRY BELOW 700 MB SO SOME/MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TODAY AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AS PRESSURES OVER WEST
TEXAS START TO DROP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. 850-700 LAYER WINDS
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL DEVELOP.
LOW LEVEL MSTR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BENEATH THE INVERSION AND CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING BENEATH THE CAP. WILL
CARRY 20 POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.20-1.30 INCHES AND THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP
DEEPENS TO 850 MB.
THE CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS RATHER STOUT ON MONDAY MORNING BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ERODE THE CAP BY 18Z. 850-700 MB WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE CAP WILL
ACTUALLY ERODE. THAT SAID...THERE IS A WEAK S/WV THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE AFTN AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP WEAKEN
THE CAP...BUT JUST NOT SURE IF THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE CAP
THIS FAR SOUTH. IF THE CAP ERODES...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE NORTH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
OVER THE NORTH (NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE) INCLUDE
CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...LI`S OF -9...SWEAT INDEX OF 370 AND
TT`S OF 52-55. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR MONDAY. THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO ERODE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-10. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE S/W SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MON NITE INTO TUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX ON TUESDAY MORNING BUT LIMITED MSTR
AND A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SO CALIF EARLY TUESDAY AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP OCCURING ON WEDNESDAY. JET DYNAMICS LOOK MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
NEARS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL INDUCE A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.70-1.80 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS
BECOME SATURATED. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DEEP
MSTR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FAVORS HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL
TROUGH EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A SFC LOW AND PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THU/FRI. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES NEXT SAT
OR SUN. 43
MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE STATE AND ALLOW
FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF
FREEPORT AND BEYOND 20 NM MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS SAME PATTERN OF DAYTIME CAUTION AND NIGHTTIME ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST
EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
40
FIRE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AND
RETURN GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. STILL...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. GIVEN THAT SOME MIXING MAY
OCCUR...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IF THE WINDS PICKUP MORE
THAN THE EXPECTED 5 TO 10 MPH.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 59 80 68 81 / 20 10 10 20 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 63 80 69 81 / 20 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 68 76 71 77 / 20 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across West
Central Texas through mid morning. KABI (Abilene) would be the
most likely terminal to see one of the isolated storms, but any
reduction in vsby or ceiling would be very brief. VFR ceilings
will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Models suggest
that with continued southerly winds, MVFR cigs will develop after
midnight and continue through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
437 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALOFT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING
WEST TO EAST AND BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LVL LOW WILL DIG INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. SUNDAY THE HIGHEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS UNDER A FAIRLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER
THIS CAP SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION.
TODAY A BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW LVL JET
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TOMORROW LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE WEST...REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND THEN SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STREAMER SHOWERS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER
MEXICO COULD MOVE INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE DRY LINE WILL WORK ITS
WAY THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE VCT AREA.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-1.75
INCHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA MONDAY. ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
MORE INTACT THAN THE GFS AS IT KICKS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO REACH WESTERN AREAS BY TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DEEPER
MOISTURE NEAR THE AREA...COULD SEE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY NIGHT MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OZARKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 68 80 72 85 / 30 10 10 20 20
VICTORIA 79 64 79 70 84 / 20 10 20 20 40
LAREDO 84 66 89 70 94 / 30 10 10 20 0
ALICE 82 65 84 70 91 / 30 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 78 69 77 71 81 / 20 10 20 20 20
COTULLA 82 65 87 68 92 / 30 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 81 67 83 71 88 / 30 10 10 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 77 69 77 72 82 / 30 10 10 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the Permian
Basin, with the activity moving northeast. TTU WRF and the HRRR both
show that the bulk of the convection will continue northeast into
the Big Country this morning. Likely PoPs already in place. Showers
developing south of the main area of convection into Crockett County
as well, so will keep the chance PoPs in place. Most of the activity
will push east of the area this afternoon as the shortwave causing
the convection shifts out of the area.
After a brief lull this afternoon and evening, low level moisture
and low clouds increases tonight. Combination will keep temperatures
up with overnight lows around 60 degrees.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
There is another chance of rain for mainly Sunday night. Chance Pops
return to the area Sunday night as mid to upper ascent increases and
a dryline approaches the western part of West Central Texas. A
few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across
the northern Big Country. Looks like the threat of severe weather
will remain north of our area as better instability resides over
Oklahoma. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(Monday through Saturday)
Looks a dry period for Monday and Monday night as low level westerly
flow dominates. Another upper level disturbance will bring isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.
The ECMWF model is more intense with the mid and upper level ascent
and higher QPF amounts. An upper level ridge will build across the
Southern Plains late next week, bringing a dry forecast. The medium
range models are indicating an intense/amplified upper level
trough over the central and southern Rockies and at the surface a
dryline will move east across West Central Texas Friday night and
Saturday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Monday, cooling to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, behind a cool
front. Temperatures rebound into the 70s to lower 80s by mid to
late next week as low level south to southeast returns. Lows will
be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 59 85 61 / 60 10 10 30
San Angelo 74 60 85 60 / 50 10 20 30
Junction 73 60 81 64 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT...APART FROM JET-STREAM CIRRUS AND DEBRIS CLOUD
FROM THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LRD AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL DVLP AROUND
07-08Z AT THE TERMINALS...SO WILL PUSH IT OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AREA-WIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO AROUND 20KT SUSTAINED. MVFR
CIGS AGAIN POISED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT MFE
WHERE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL STAY UP LATER DUE TO A
LOW-LVL JET AND KEEP CIG ABOVE 3KFT AGL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TRACKING STEADILY EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MORE THAN 150 MILES WNW OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DEL RIO TO CORPUS
CHRISTI INDICATE A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING
1.24 INCHES AT KBRO AND 0.78 INCHES AT CRP. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCH LANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO GO
UNDER A LOT OF MODIFICATION OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR TRACK OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE CWA. MOST MODEL
PROJECTIONS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QPF/RAINFALL
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ONLY THE HRRR SPREADING
GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
WITH ALL THIS SAID AND ONLY ONE MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL CUT BACK ON AREAL
COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MONITOR THE
CONVECTION AND REVIEW THE 00Z MODEL PACKAGE TO SEE IF ANY RAIN
WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LIGHT EAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. LOWER CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SPREADING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE MVFR CEILING
TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE MID MORNING SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM SEASON
TONIGHT. H5 TROUGH COMING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH
DIFFLUENT FIELD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE SW US. CLOUD COVER STARTING
TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO LARGE TOWERS QUITE YET.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CURRENT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE MAIN PEAK TIMING WOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY NE AND DISSIPATING. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES...BUT GOING FORECAST HAS THE
IDEA. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE RACING AWAY FROM THE REGION AT THAT TIME.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT BREEZY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO RAMP UP. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN THE HEATING
SOME...ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST WHERE ANY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...TRANSIENT...SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM INTERESTING...BUT LIKELY NOT
TREMENDOUSLY EXCITING FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MILD H5 RIDGING
WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO COLORADO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS. A
MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST INFLOW LOOKS LIKELY ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY.
RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MEXICO DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW...WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT THOUGH ERRATIC NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OUT
OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE
FIRST OF TWO MID LEVEL LOWS WILL TROUGH OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AS IT
MOVES EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA SUN
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...BUT DESPITE THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW...
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP STABILIZE CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW WILL ALSO TROUGH OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE PROCESS...WITH THE
HELP OF A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS
THE FRONT AND REMAINING UPPER ENERGY FOCUS OVER THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NO STRONG DRYING
TREND WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT AS EAST WINDS WILL KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK THOUGH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY SILENT FOR NOW.
DESTABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN
SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...IN REACTION TO PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MID
LEVEL TROUGH LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK NEAR NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY SNEAK A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS WILL
REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING SWELLS...STARTING AT 3 FEET TONIGHT REACHING 6 FEET BY
SUNSET SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL
INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PRODUCE A TIGHT
LOCAL GRADIENT...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING. AS PLAINS LOW PRESSURE FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
942 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. AFTER THESE SHOWERS PULL OUT
MONDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THEN
BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE RAP AND HRRR.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HAVING A
HARD TIME MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT AFTER
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... AND EVEN A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLE WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL
TIME DOWN A BIT. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND EVEN
MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. ONLY THE NAM OFFERS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO
SMALL...LI AROUND -0.25 AND CAPE AT MOST 200 J/KG...FOR THUNDER
CONCERNS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AN AVERAGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE AND ONE-
HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST THANKS TO THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL DIP AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER
OF CONUS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY...A DEEP
LOW/TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
ANOTHER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE COAST OF VA/NC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE ONE CATCH IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
VA/NC TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE COAST. AS IT DOES THIS...UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BITS OF ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
SWING INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES...PLUS OR MINUS...OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 702 PM EDT SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS COMBINING WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS UPSTREAM...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING SO CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS REMAIN VFR. EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
TRAVERSES THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT EXCEPT UP NORTH (LWB) WHERE IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETTER. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT
AND USE P6SM -SHRA AT KBLF/KLWB TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPIATION THIS EVENING.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING PROGRESS ON MONDAY. SO AFTER THE INITIAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A CONTINUATION OF VFR CIGS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RUNNING INTO THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY START TO LOWER CIGS AND GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS WILL BE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KBLF WHERE A
FAVORED SWLY DIRECTION TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING ON MONDAY ALL SITES WILL START TO SEE GUSTS AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE BRISK.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME SUB-VFR WITH AREAS OF
RAIN AND FOG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN
THE PIEDMONT FOR A WHILE. THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NORTHERN VA/MD WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS
WEEK NEITHER ARE ANY STRONG WINDS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
941 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES IN
PLACE. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10AM...FOLLOWED
BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT WEST AT NOON.
MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A LITTLE BLEED
OVER TO THE EAST. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TODAY
WILL ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OUT THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR
60MPH FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT GUSTS NEAR 50MPH
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE TO MAKE IT OUT
OF THE 30S WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FURTHER EAST.
PREVIOUS AFD...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR
EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL.
AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW
AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND
LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO
THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE
WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE
GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE
CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND
THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING
VEGETATION.
WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS.
STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH
RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT
THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THAT AREA AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST
WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN
APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND
COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING
A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE
NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE
BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT
WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A
FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN
WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA
TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH
USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO
COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY 04/09/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 18 1972 32 1985
KDAN 26 1972 44 2003
KLYH 24 2007 38 1927
KROA 22 1972 38 1927
KRNK 17 1972 36 1956
SUNDAY 04/10/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 20 1997 35 1960
KDAN 25 1985 44 2003
KLYH 20 1985 41 1894
KROA 20 1985 41 1918
KRNK 16 1985 37 1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-
058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-
020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB
FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP
CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
750 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER FLOW IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR
EARLY APRIL WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WPC HAS LOWERED THE SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND PULLED THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS WELL.
AMOUNTS ADVERTISED ARE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...SHOULD ALLOW
AMOUNTS TO REACH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA WESTERN GREENBRIER AND
LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL REPORTS YET UP TO
THIS HOUR. AS OF NOW...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. HOWEVER...TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING THE
WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...WILL LEAVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
WILL ALSO LEAVE FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AND UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. 28 DEGREES DURING THE
GROWING SEASON...AS ESTABLISHED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES IN THE
CWA...CONSTITUTES A HARD FREEZE. GIVEN ALL OF THE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WE SAW IN MARCH...THE GROWING SEASON STARTED VERY EARLY AND
THUS THE ADVERTISED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY PREMATURE BLOOMING/BUDDING
VEGETATION.
WITH RESPECT TO WIND...MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
40-50KT NW LLJ TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE MID-MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO AM LEAVING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS.
STILL NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THE EVENT WE SAW A WEEK AGO TODAY. WITH
RESPECT TO THE WIND ADVISORY...OUR LOCAL WIND TOOL SUGGESTS THAT
THE WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THAT AREA AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MOUNTAINS...RISING WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 20S PIEDMONT...A GOOD 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...
AFTER A SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A WARMER SOUTH FLOW AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO A HALT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO THE FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM SOUTHWEST
WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS A TAD SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA THAN THE
00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WERE LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
TAKING UP MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS VARY
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE MODELS...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SEEMS AN
APPROPRIATE AMOUNT GIVEN THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE CWA AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOT EXITING UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WITH AT OR BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY AND
COOLER WX EXPECTED. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY POTENTIALL GENERATING
A STRONG SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE FL GULF COAST TO OFF THE
NC COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE
BACK UP OUR WAY THURSDAY BUT KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHORT
WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING BANDS OF FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HRRR SHOWS WE COULD HAVE A
FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS BEFORE THE BETTER DYNAMICS LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANY REDUCTION TO VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
THROUGH 15Z...THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE. THE KLWB AREA MAY BE THE LAST
LOCATION TO SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE KROA/KLYH AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LARGELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SPREADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR
KLWB/KBLF/KBCB...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS OF EASTERN
WV...BUT LOOKING FOR ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. STRONG LLJ WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 40-45KTS AT TIMES...NEAR 60KTS AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
AND BE 5 MPH OR LESS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATE
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH COULD
BRING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN -SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA
TODAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY COORDINATED WITH
USFS TO ESTABLISH THE EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING...THUS NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO
COOL AND WITH SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER WEST FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL DEFER DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
AS TO WHETHER ANY COUNTIES FURTHER WEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
NEED AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS THERE WAS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND FUELS MAY BE TOO WET INITIALLY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY 04/09/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 18 1972 32 1985
KDAN 26 1972 44 2003
KLYH 24 2007 38 1927
KROA 22 1972 38 1927
KRNK 17 1972 36 1956
SUNDAY 04/10/2016
SITE MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR
KBLF 20 1997 35 1960
KDAN 25 1985 44 2003
KLYH 20 1985 41 1894
KROA 20 1985 41 1918
KRNK 16 1985 37 1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>014-
016>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VAZ009-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-022>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-
058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-
020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...AMS/RAB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB
FIRE WEATHER...PW/WP
CLIMATE...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ALL QUIET ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE. AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NE...A REMNANT MESOSCALE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL DROP SE INTO
CENTRAL TO SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE. SOME
STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTH AND SW
TOWARDS TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHR TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO AR
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP SE OVER AR. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
FRONT WILL THEN BE WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
DEVELOPING.
WILL HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING AS
DRIER...MORES STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE CALMER...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...
WHILE AN UPPER SHORT MOVES ACROSS AR. CURRENT MODELS DO INDICATED A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SLOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME DO TO UNCERTAINTY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND MOISTURE
LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE FORECAST WILL STAY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF
AR. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND OF A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 44 62 40 / 80 60 10 0
CAMDEN AR 77 52 67 47 / 80 80 0 10
HARRISON AR 68 39 60 37 / 80 40 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 51 64 45 / 80 80 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 49 64 43 / 80 80 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 52 66 46 / 80 80 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 50 65 44 / 80 80 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 41 62 38 / 80 40 0 0
NEWPORT AR 70 44 62 39 / 80 60 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 50 64 44 / 80 80 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 48 65 43 / 80 60 0 10
SEARCY AR 69 47 62 40 / 80 70 10 0
STUTTGART AR 72 48 63 42 / 80 80 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST SUN APR 10 2016
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM...THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
TREK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BY 8
PM THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAD TRANSLATED INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL
AZ...AND WAS APPROACHING THE GLOBE AREA. WEAK AND FLAT RIDGING WITH
MODEST SUBSIDENCE WAS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS
THE LOWER WESTERN DESERTS...BUT SO FAR HAD NOT RESULTED IN MUCH
CLEARING AS THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA/SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER LED TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING SUNSET AND THE
LOW CENTER MOVING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MORE STABLE...AND THE DVV SPREADING IN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS OF 830 PM. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...UNDER WEAK
RIDGING...WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF RAIN. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE RATHER MOIST...AND COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS
IN THE -17C TO -18C RANGE) WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN ONCE THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ALMOST AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR
REGION TODAY...RAINFALL CHANCES APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LESS THAN
THE WITH THE CURRENT ONE...SINCE THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THAT THE CURRENT ONE
HAS...AS INDICATED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST
GEFS/GFS IVT FORECAST GRAPHICS. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL LINGER...BUT
WILL OPT TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH...MAY ADD A VCSH MENTION SOMETIME AFTER
20Z IN THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL SEE ABOUT THAT.
FEEL THAT CIGS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 6K FEET FOR THE MOST PART AT
THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT VARIOUS
MODEL RH/UVV CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE
MAY BE LINGERING CIGS 5-7K FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES REMAIN QUITE HIGH. THE LOW DECKS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE ON THE FEW-SCT SIDE BUT CIGS MAY FORM AT ANY TIME.
ALSO...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PASSES BY
THE SOUTH...CIGS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE DESERTS...AND COULD DROP AS
LOW AS 5K FEET ONCE AGAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT DIURNAL WINDS...FAVORING THE EAST LESS THAN 10KT FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT...AND VEERING BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15KT POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL...AS ANOTHER LOW SWINGS BY TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER. CIGS SHOULD GENLY STAY AOA 8K FEET TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST LOWER CLOUD DECKS MAINLY FEW-SCT...BUT COULD SEE
CIGS START TO REDEVELOP FROM 6-8K FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE NEXT
24 HOURS...FAVORING THE WEST AT KIPL AND THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
KBLH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING BACK UP WELL INTO THE
80S...OR EVEN CLOSE TO 90...A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SE-WARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AZ...AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-
25 PERCENT RANGE REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WIDEN
INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
OVER SE CA AND SW AZ. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD-
EXCELLENT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
THAT WILL FOLLOW IN LATER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING
INTO THE THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING. AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER SE CA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL CA. THE DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG
THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
REMNANT VORTICITY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPIS THIS
EVENING. THUS ANY STORM ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FOCUS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL BE IN A COL AN AREA OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT
AND ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
TRYING TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN CA. HIGH PWAT IS EXPECTED TO
STILL BE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 8000 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY.
A COLDER GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS IT REACHING THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS TREND IS A DRIER SCENARIO THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT QPF FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH AND MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...AROUND 5000 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE FROM WINDS THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 15Z MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 19Z MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MV
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.Synopsis...
Mountain showers will continue early this week with another round
of showers over the entire area around mid week.
&&
.Discussion...
Showers diminishing this evening as they drop southwest from the
Sierra. Only isolated showers the rest of the night...mainly over
the mountains. Otherwise...skies will remain mostly cloudy with
light winds. Current forecast is on track and no evening update
will be needed.
.Previous Discussion...
Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to
move east. An area of thunderstorms over Lassen County is moving
southwest and may impact Plumas and Shasta Counties later this
afternoon and evening. Snow level will continue to be high and
near 8000 feet but may lower to near 7000 in heavier convection.
the HRRR indicates a good chance that showers will spread west and
into the north end of the valley this evening. Conditions over the
southern half of the CWA should mostly be dry but could see some
isolated showers and sprinkles.
A low along 135W will get sheared apart as it moves towards
Northern California. The southern end will form a low over
Southern California on Monday and help to continue to produce
showers over the northern end of the state...mostly over the
mountains.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
provide enough moisture and instability to bring some showers to
the far northern end of the State and the north end of the valley
and surrounding mountains.
A colder low pressure system will begin to moving into the
northern end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall
below major pass levels with this system and result in travel
impacts.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Colder system will continue to move across NorCal on Thursday with
precipitation across most of the area. Models still indicate
heaviest precipitation will fall over the mountains with snow
levels down to around 4000-4500 feet. This will likely cause
travel impacts through the day Thursday. System begins to shift
east Thursday night into Friday with only a few lingering mountain
showers. Ridging will then build in across the state with drier
weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the weekend.
Valley temperatures may be back into the 80s by Saturday. This
pattern also lends itself to some breezy northerly winds across
the Coastal Range and western side of the Valley. Have removed
precip chances from late Saturday into Sunday as it looks like
models have backed off on the next wave which will still be out
over the Pacific into early next week.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers through late this evening, especially
across the NorCal mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.
MVFR/IFR low clouds may continue across Valley TAF sites into
Monday. South winds will remain 10 kts or less.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
502 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS
AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM
FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS.
MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS
MORNING.
S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ
EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES ON TUESDAY. THE REGION THEN
REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAS
RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE. THUS...HAVE RAISED THE LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT UPPER 40S NYC METRO.
S-SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE
LATE TNGT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NW. INCREASING THETAE SO
A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS WRN ZONES.
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH WARM
FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE W COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
MARGINAL CONDS IN LIGHT SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS.
MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY UP AT KSWF WITH -SHRA AS WELL THIS
MORNING.
S WINDS INCREASE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OCNL S GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
NYC/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z OR SO BECOMING FRQ
EVERYWHERE THEREAFTER. GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER. EXPECT INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP GUSTS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTS WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE
AFTN. SW WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
ADJUSTED TIMING OF SCA ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS TO START MON
MORNING.
SLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO ALL WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND CONTINUE MON
NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
518 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
MEASURABLE I-95 WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING
UP AND I THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY
PERIODS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED
MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS
MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING
UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO
THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH
TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BL
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH.
SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.8 TODAY.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER BY
THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING
THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS
10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS. I DID RAISE POPS TONIGHT
IN THIS 630 AM FCST UPDATE AND THE WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN` I-95 NWWD LATE TONIGHT WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.2
INCHES, A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP
LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE
IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS
FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
MDT SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN
THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 517A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 517A
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO 517A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND
MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE
TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS
TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM
BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK,
AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY
FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME
SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE
ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30
MPH.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11
UKMET QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST
LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR
ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND
E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET
TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
OFFSHORE. THIS LOW MAY EVENTUALLY BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW INCLUDES SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT
850-700MB RESPECTIVELY IN CENTRAL PA WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL
GENERATED SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS E PA INTO NW NJ TODAY. THE POPS AND
MULTIPLE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED (RAISED) ONCE AGAIN FOR MEASURABLE
TO I-95 BY DAYBREAK AND SPRINKLES TO THE NJ COAST. THE 00Z/11 EC IS
TOO DRY. THE 05Z HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I THINK THE 00Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM
BLEND IS BEST FOR TWO SHOWER PACKETS THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE DAYBREAK,
AND THEN ANOTHER MORE ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY
FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME
SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE
ASSOCIATED BL INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30
MPH.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND THE POPS ADJUSTED HIGHER BY THE 00Z/11
UKMET QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING THEN BECOMES OVERCAST
LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS WITH A TENDENCY
TO WARM THE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. OUR FCST STILL
MAY BE TOO LOW TONIGHT ON DEWPOINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SLOWLY AS WELL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AROUND A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL REGION- WIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A OMEGA BLOCK IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VARIOUS SYSTEMS BEING STUBBORN TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
MODELING AND TO SOME EXTENT VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TO LINGER OR BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE END RESULTS WOULD BE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW, INCREASED CLOUDS, COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE LARGER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW WE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN WE`RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WITH MODEL DATA WILL STILL OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY TODAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION AT OR
ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KABE AND KRDG WITH SOME SHOWERS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY BE NORTH AND
WEST OF KPHL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND
E. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS TUESDAY
LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 5 OR 6 FEET
TODAY IN THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS FROM 25-30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE DAY BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE ALSO FROM FIVE TO SEVEN FEET CURRENTLY MODELED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NOT MUCH OF A LULL MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
WHEN THE FRONT THAT LED TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS
TUESDAY MOVES EAST AND A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY RAMP-UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND OVER 25 KNOTS. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 251
SHORT TERM...DRAG 251
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 251
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 251
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Little change in thinking from previous forecast. A period of
VLIFR conditions can be expected over parts of the TAF area late
tonight into the early morning hours due to low clouds and fog
just ahead of the cold front, which at this hour was just west
of PIA. Once the front shifts east of the area, we expect improving
conditions to work their way from northwest to southeast during
the early morning hours. VFR conditions should begin to affect the
PIA area around 10z and by 16z in our far eastern TAF site, CMI.
Rain with isold TSRA can be expected mainly south of a SPI to
CMI line over the next few hours just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, as the front settles southeast across the state, we
expect precip chances to decrease from northwest to southeast
during the early morning hours. Light south to southwest winds
ahead of the cold front will become northwest to north after the
frontal passage later tonight with speeds on Monday ranging from
10 to 15 kts with a few afternoon gusts around 20 kts at times
before diminishing quickly around 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP
TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE
BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY.
THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY
AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING
THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY
NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON.
WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE
WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN
QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S.
CUTOFF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COLD FRONT PASSING INTO NORTHERN IOWA NOW WILL INCREASE NW
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE AFT
14Z WITH GUSTS 15-30 KTS OVER NORTHERN SITES KALO/KMCW. CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON
TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST
1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE
PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z...AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1212 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS RAIN...POSSIBLY ENDING AS
A PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COASTAL LOW MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. MAINLY BELOW FREEZING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES...HOWEVER EVEN IN THESE
LOCATIONS DEW POINTS REMAIN ONLY IN THE TEENS. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW
FOR A PTYPE LATER TONIGHT...WITH EVEN THE LATEST HRRR BRINGING IN
JUST A COUPLE PIXELS OF FZRA TO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL
MONITOR FOR FREEZING PCPN VERY CLOSELY AND MOST LIKELY ISSUE AN
SPS FOR ANY SMALL AREA THAT DEVELOPS. MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THIS
PRECIP IN AROUND 09Z...HOWEVER SUBLIMATION COULD OCCUR ON THE
FRONT END.
PREV DISC...
925 PM UPDATE: WAA OVERUNNING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. SO ALTHOUGH
RADAR SHOWING PCPN SPREADING ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO VERMONT...IT
APPEARS THIS IS PRIMARILY ALOFT. AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO STURATE THE LOWER LEVELS SO OVERALL TIMING OF
ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NH ALTHOUGH BUMPED UP THE
LOW POPS OVER WESTERN NH A FEW HOURS QUICKER IN CASE A FEW
FLURRIES MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THOSE DRY LOWER LAYERS A LITTLE
SOONER THAN ADVERTISED. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN TOLERANCE OF
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS DATA.
615 PM UPDATE...VERY QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. WAA HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE EVENING WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A WAA
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...IF WINDS GO
CALM QUICK ENOUGH...SOME SPOTS MAY RADIATE PRETTY WELL. FOR THIS
REASON I BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS
WHICH SEEM TO CAPTURE THE COLDER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO
WESTERN ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE CT RIVER BY 4
OR 5 AM. THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NH AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ME BY 8 AM OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERNMOST AND COASTAL
NH WHERE IT WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IF ANYTHING
FALLS AT ALL THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINE EARLY AND
MID MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS BEFORE LIGHT RAIN TAKES
OVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NH...AND PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS WHERE AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN LATE IN
THE MORNING. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE TRACE
AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIKELY OFFER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
THEREFORE...NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE DAY FOR ALL.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN MONDAY MORNING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS IN PLACE DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THE EASTERN TROUGH
WILL DELIVER ONE MORE COLD SHOT TO THE AREA MID WEEK BEFORE RISING
HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING BLOCK BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...
MODELS TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHIFTED THE BLOCK A BIT FURTHER
WEST...LEAVING THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED LOW VERSUS THE
PREFERRED UPPER RIDGE. THIS CHANGE HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN THE DAILIES...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT IS NOW SLOWER TO EXIT THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...AND IT`S POSSIBLE
THAT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE
A BIT TO THE WEST WITH CLOUDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC
WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD SPELL AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...DAMP...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WESTERN NH WHERE MARGINAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MAY OCCUR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
ON MONDAY LIGHT LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT MONDAY. LOWERING
CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR MONDAY NIGHT IN RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG.
LONG TERM...
TUE -WED AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB.
THU...SCT MVFR PSB IN SHRA. NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT.
FRI......AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR COND PSB.
NE SFC WND GUSTING TO 30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
ALLOWS FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS WELL.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
TUE...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE
THE BAYS.
WED...SMALL CRAFT COND ARE PSB.
THU - FRI...SMALL CRAFT COND LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO GALE PSB OUTSIDE
THE BAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. NO PROBLEMS
EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WATERS AND WAVES
BUILDING...THE 330 AM HIGH TIDE TUESDAY /10.9 FT MLLW AT PORTLAND/
MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ151.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
LINGERING LOW CIGS/VSBY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART
QUICKLY...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH VEERING WINDS TO WEST THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM OBS
AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOSITURE MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR WILL
ALSO BOOST CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
/1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>245-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB
FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE
LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN
FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OPERATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT
700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN
THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE
OVERCAST SATURDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN
CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY
BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF KOGA TO KLBF
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
SKIES WILL GRADUALL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY.
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z.
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z GFS.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS
IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
4106 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE TODAY.
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 23Z THROUGH THE 06Z END OF TAF.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 21Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 05Z.
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...BUT A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z GFS.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/11/16
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS
IN WAKE...THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
236 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS AT 06Z SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE
OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. RETURNS FURTHER
EAST TWD THE SUSQ VALLEY ARE MAINLY ALOFT AS THE PRECIP STRUGGLES
TO REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THE LLVL 15-20 T/TD SPREADS.
EXPECT THE LLVLS TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN-UP AND COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MUCH OF THE REGION SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
COULD STAY MAINLY DRY AFTER 14Z.
LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WERE REACHED SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE
OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL SEE TEMPS DROP BY ANOTHER 4 OR
5F AS THE RAIN INITIALLY EVAPORATES IN/COOLS THE DRY LLVLS.
NATIONAL BLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST
LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS
CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW 40S.
2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ...AND 1-2 SIGMA PWAT AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND
REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE
OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS
RAINFL RANGING FROM NEARLY 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY THROUGH 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER TODAY AS THE 2-3 SIGMA SWRLY LLJ AND PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS PWATS SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
18Z/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SFC WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRYING/BRIGHTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES
THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS
TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16
EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2.
BCMG VFR.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
151 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 02Z SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST
VIRGA. EARLIER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ICING HAVE DIMINISHED...AS SFC
TEMPS NOW SAFELY ABV FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD
DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE W MTNS ARND MIDNIGHT AND
REACH THE SUSQ VALLEY BY ABOUT 08Z. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AT NOSE
OF APPROACHING LL JET SHOULD SUPPORT A NEAR CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE
RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH AMTS OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES BY 12Z.
NATIONALBLEND...COMBINED WITH INPUT FROM LATEST LAMP/RAP...SUGGESTS
TEMPS BY DAWN WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN THE LOW
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS CONTINUING...AS LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS REMAIN
OVER CENTRAL PA. 18Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST SFC WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PA LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SFC WAVE OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING/BRIGHTENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FOCUS LATE DAY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NW MTNS.
SREF TEMP PLUMES SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT GETS...BUT 12Z NATIONALBLEND INDICATES
THE MOST LIKELY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE N MTNS
TO THE L60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 11/06 TAFS THROUGH 12/06Z | ISSUED 155 AM EDT 4/11/16
EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT MOVG E FROM THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH 10-20 DEGREE DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL SHOW A STEADY TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIG TREND WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR AT BFD. LLWS
CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WITH 40-50KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLES VIA VWP.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
TUE...RAIN ENDING W TO E. MVFR CIGS LKLY BEHIND CFROPA WRN 1/2.
BCMG VFR.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/
AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD
/BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z
MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING
DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME
25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE
APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND
02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 10 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
110 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DRG THE MID MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTN GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. 281. PREDOMINATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...AS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SVR WATCH 81 IS
CANCELLED FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. NOTHING TO NOTE ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. IF
ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AS CAP CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER. UPDATE WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY. MAY ADJUST POPS ONE MORE TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH
EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES
ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO
THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL
OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF
BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES
COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 68 80 70 78 / 30 10 10 50 60
VICTORIA 82 64 81 65 73 / 40 10 10 50 70
LAREDO 93 68 84 68 81 / 0 10 20 50 30
ALICE 90 67 83 69 78 / 20 10 10 50 60
ROCKPORT 78 68 76 70 75 / 30 10 10 50 70
COTULLA 91 63 81 65 76 / 10 10 20 50 50
KINGSVILLE 89 69 82 70 80 / 20 10 10 50 60
NAVY CORPUS 79 69 76 71 76 / 30 10 10 50 60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/
CONVECTION NOW EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS AND ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR LESS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST AS THINKING IS THAT ALL RAIN WILL END
BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
ONSET OF THE MVFR/IFR CIGS. THINKING CURRENTLY THAT I-35 TERMINALS
WILL BEGIN WITH MVFR CIGS OR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 07Z. KDRT LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 09Z. THEN AROUND 08Z I-35
SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE IFR CIGS AND IFR CIG WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z AT KDRT. BY 06Z-19Z ALL LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR.
CURRENT FORECAST ARE INDICATING MVFR CIGS RETURN 12/05Z-06 FOR THE
30 HOUR FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10-15
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z WINDS BECOME S/SW 10-15 KNOTS. KDRT WILL SEE W/NW
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR
10 KNOTS AT THE I-35 SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT
WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE
CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE
SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED
STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY
AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW
00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE
FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500
J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS
EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER
ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY.
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE
I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND
10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR
AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST
A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN
INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE
CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE
COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.
THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR
QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME
MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
DECREASING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW
AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 75 58 68 54 / - 10 60 70 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 75 58 68 52 / - 10 60 70 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 60 70 54 / - 10 60 70 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 72 56 67 52 / - 10 60 60 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 78 62 76 58 / - 20 60 30 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 73 56 67 52 / - 10 50 60 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 61 71 54 / - 20 60 60 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 76 59 69 54 / - 10 60 70 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 76 61 69 55 / 10 10 50 70 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 77 61 70 56 / - 20 60 70 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 78 63 71 57 / - 20 60 70 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE KF05 /VERNON/
AREA EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF KBKD
/BRECKENRIDGE/ TO SOUTHWEST OF KBDD /BRADY/ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 06Z AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN UNTIL 16-18Z
MONDAY WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH AN APPROACHING
DRYLINE. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME
25 KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE DRYLINE
APPROACHES LATE MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AROUND 23Z MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WACO AROUND
02Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHERE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS
GENERATED LIFT OVER A REGION OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE FWD 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING IN
ADDITION TO HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD ANY
STORMS REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT...THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED
DRAMATICALLY. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AREA-WIDE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IF A COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN OKLAHOMA WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOTION OF THIS
COMPLEX WOULD STILL BE PRIMARILY EAST/NORTHEAST...THEREFORE KEEPING
IT LOCATED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR SAN ANGELO MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD EASTWARD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
STALLEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE PANHANDLE TO NEAR MATAGORDA
BAY. THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FEATURE HAS ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DOWNWARD TREND
IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...WHOSE EASTWARD PROGRESS
HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY MIXING...THUS IT HAS NOT ADVANCED AS FAR AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN 700MB THRUST HAS BEEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE SOME
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO NORTH TEXAS. OUR AREA OF
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS THE SUNNY BIG COUNTRY...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
NEAR 3000J/KG. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE DOWNWARD MOTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY. THE WINDOW FOR INITIATION WILL REMAIN
OPEN THROUGH SUNSET...AND ANY CELLS THAT FORM WILL TRACK THROUGH A
SIMILARLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO BOWIE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...AND A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHILE THIS WOULD PRECLUDE THE WIND
THREAT...HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STORMS
THIS EVENING. AS 850MB WINDS REACH 50KTS LATE TONIGHT...
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED...ALBEIT LIKELY NON-SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE
ENTERING OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG
ITS PATH...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURGING DRYLINE PEELS UP A BUOYANT SURFACE
LAYER. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE WILL
MAKE MORE RAPID PROGRESS NORTH OF I-20...WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT...A STUBBORN CAP MAY
PERSIST...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER ON THE HUMID SIDE...DIMINISHING
THE NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN
END TO THE STORM CHANCES.
A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL
SURFACE LAYER WILL ENSUE...AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL REGIONWIDE. A RAIN-FREE INTERLUDE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 82 52 70 53 / 20 20 5 5 30
WACO 67 84 52 71 52 / 30 20 5 10 40
PARIS 66 79 51 68 47 / 20 60 20 5 20
DENTON 66 80 48 68 48 / 20 20 5 5 30
MCKINNEY 67 79 49 69 49 / 20 30 10 5 20
DALLAS 68 82 54 70 53 / 20 30 5 5 30
TERRELL 68 81 52 70 51 / 20 30 20 5 30
CORSICANA 68 83 54 70 53 / 30 30 10 10 30
TEMPLE 67 84 53 72 54 / 30 20 5 10 50
MINERAL WELLS 64 81 47 68 50 / 30 10 5 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND EXPECT IT
WILL NOT REINTENSIFY AS CAP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. HAVE
CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...HAVE FINE TUNED THE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO TWO HOUR BLOCKS THROUGH 1AM WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF TRENDS. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND A COUNTY TIER TO THE EAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHERE THE LONE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND PLEASE
SEE THE UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED
STORM TRENDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ONE SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO FORM AND HAS JUST CROSSED INTO KINNEY
AND NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THE NEW
00Z HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THIS STORM WELL AND EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THE 00Z KDRT SOUNDING SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP IN
PLACE AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOWER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STORM THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM DUE TO SHORTWAVE
FORCING, VERY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF NEAR 2500
J/KG ML CAPE SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO PERSIST. THIS STORM HAS
EXHIBITED HAIL SIGNATURES THAT SUGGEST UP TO AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZE AND LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL ROTATION BUT THIS SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
A STRONG MID-LVL MESOCYCLONE AT TIMES. WHILE A TORNADO IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM, CLOSE MONITORING WILL OCCUR IF THE DEEPER
ROTATION WAS TO BUILD DOWN VERTICALLY.
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD HOLD ACROSS I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. AS SUCH, AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER EAST, IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH ZAVALA AND FRIO. ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THIS CELL
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKER AS THE CAP HOLDS AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 7AM AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
REGENERATE IN FAR EAST COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
LINE/FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THESE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
HWO OR GRAPHICS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TONIGHT`S STORM TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
BIG THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. KDRT WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER THE START TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF I-35. ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR. AROUND 02Z EXPECTING TO SEE THE
I-35 TERMINALS GO TO MVFR AND THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. KAUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL GET INTO KDRT AROUND
10Z. EXPECTING TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR
AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT
10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ALL EYES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFTING TO BEGIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON THE LEE OF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS AND WORK AGAINST
A WEAKENING CAP IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
RAP/HRRR/WRF SOUNDINGS ARE ALL INDICATING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
AOA KDRT AROUND THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME...COINCIDING WITH AN
INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING. LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS NOW...THE
CAP IS STILL HOLDING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH WILL WARM UP THE
COLUMN AND BEGIN DETERIORATING CAP STRENGTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AT FIRST...RESULTING IN LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. WITH SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATING AN INVERTED V SET UP WITH AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH RATHER HIGH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5...DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.
THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY CONGLOMERATE INTO EITHER A CLUSTER OR
QUASI LINEAR SYSTEM AS THEY PRODUCE HEALTHY OUTFLOWS AND CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE INFLUENCES OF THE SHORTWAVE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOSS IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9 OR 10 PM BUT WILL BECOME
MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH HAIL POTENTIAL
DECREASING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR...SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASES FURTHER. ANOTHER SHOT AT STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST FOR THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST BUT MAY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE TIME STORMS RE-INTENSIFY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MORE OF A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN QPF
GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH RICH MOISTURE FLUX INTO BROAD LIFTING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW
AXIS ELONGATES AND ACCELERATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING...THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MUCH DEEPER WITH POTENT LIFTING LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
MANY DISCREPANCIES IN DETAILS CURRENTLY AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER SO WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 86 58 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 85 57 75 58 / 30 20 - 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 57 76 60 / 40 20 - 10 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 85 54 72 56 / 30 10 - 10 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 58 78 62 / 70 0 - 20 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 84 56 73 56 / 30 20 - 10 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 57 78 61 / 70 10 - 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 57 76 59 / 30 20 - 10 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 81 61 76 61 / 30 40 10 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 86 58 77 61 / 40 20 - 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 87 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1051 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...AS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SVR WATCH 81 IS
CANCELLED FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. NOTHING TO NOTE ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. IF
ANYTHING SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AS CAP CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER. UPDATE WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY. MAY ADJUST POPS ONE MORE TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SEVERE CONCERNS COMING TO AN END...AS
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE CWFA. WATCH
EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES
ANTICIPATED. HRRR MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT IN
BRINGING CONVECTION TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER
AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT OUT TO THE EAST.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
MARINE...WINDS AT BOB HALL STILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 23 KNOTS. DITTO PORT ARANSAS C-MAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SCA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE STRONGLY HINTING WINDS WILL
DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC GOING AS WEAK RISE/FALL COUPLET TO
THE NORTH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TOO BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION. ALSO...WILL UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO GET THIS FAR EAST...BUT LIKELY WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
CORPUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXTREMELY STRONG CAP...SO
THINK CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. STILL...THINK MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FARTHER EAST...BASED ON MESO-SCALE MODEL
OUTPUT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS OF
BRINGING WEAKENING ACTIVITY TO THE COAST. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS ARE OUT.
MARINE...WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS DO EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN SOME (UNLESS MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES
COME INTO PLAY). THAT IS ALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH NUMBER 81 FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MESO-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A STRONGER CAP AND AWAY FROM
UPPER SUPPORT. FOR NOW...THAT IS WHAT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOULD ORGANIZATION OCCUR SEVERE CONCERNS COULD GO
FARTHER EAST. STILL...THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT WAS A FEW
WEEKS AGO WHEN THE SQUALL LINE WENT THROUGH...AND HOPEFULLY WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST
RESIDENTS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT
THE STRONG OR SEVERE CONCERNS.
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD TONIGHT BUT DURATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. LOW END MVFR CIGS XPCTD TO IMPACT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS AT KLRD. AREAS OF
CONVECTION XPCTD TO DVLP THIS EVENING VCNTY KLRD BEFORE SHIFTNG
EWRD...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
CONVECTION SHIFTS EWRD...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO UPPER END MVFR TO PERHAPS VFR AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD REDVLP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
SERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON POOR FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 85 68 80 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 70 82 64 81 65 / 40 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 69 93 68 84 68 / 50 0 10 20 50
ALICE 70 90 67 83 69 / 40 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 71 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 67 91 63 81 65 / 50 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 71 89 69 82 70 / 40 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 71 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. AFTER THESE SHOWERS PULL OUT
MONDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THEN
BY MONDAY NIGHT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH A LARGE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUTE 460. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE RAP AND HRRR.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS HAVING A
HARD TIME MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT AFTER
PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... AND EVEN A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLE WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL
TIME DOWN A BIT. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND EVEN
MORE THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER. ONLY THE NAM OFFERS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO
SMALL...LI AROUND -0.25 AND CAPE AT MOST 200 J/KG...FOR THUNDER
CONCERNS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AN AVERAGE OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE AND ONE-
HALF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST THANKS TO THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...AND THEN COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL DIP AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER
OF CONUS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY...A DEEP
LOW/TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
ANOTHER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE COAST OF VA/NC. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE ONE CATCH IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS HINTING TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
VA/NC TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE COAST. AS IT DOES THIS...UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND BITS OF ENERGY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
SWING INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES...PLUS OR MINUS...OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 AM EDT MONDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A STRONG LOW LVL JET SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING AND WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SFC A FEW AIRPORTS
WILL HAVE A 6-8HR PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...BUT MAINLY
LOOKING AT BLF/LWB/LYH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS
BCB/ROA/LYH FOR LESS THAN HOUR BUT NOT OBSCURE VSBYS.
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND SOME OF THE 4-8KFT CIGS LIFT OR SCATTER
OUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. SUSTAINED OF 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS TOWARD BLF/LWB BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY. WILL BRING MVFR 3KFT CIGS TO BLF BY 03Z/12.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS THE APPROACHING FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME SUB-VFR WITH AREAS OF
RAIN AND FOG.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN
THE PIEDMONT FOR A WHILE. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK APPEARS
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NORTHERN VA/MD WITH POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION
OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH
REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF
THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.
.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO
MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE
COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN
THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA
WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY
OF INLAND 50S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY
SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY
THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND
WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENT AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE
EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH
WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1147 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC/24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
955 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LIGHT WAA RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT...WHERE
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT KSWF
UNTIL 22Z.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 16Z...MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF NYC. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH
COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING
FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25 KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S AFT 04Z AS A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC
INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC/24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
759 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN
THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT TUE MORNING.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOW CHC OF KHPN BRIEFLY DROPPING TO
MVFR THROUGH 15Z AS WELL. DRY FROM AROUND 16Z UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS
DEVELOPING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN VEERING
FURTHER TO THE SW-W. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S AFT 04Z AS LLJ DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
724 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD
ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT
WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST
AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO
OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT
UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.
RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS
DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS
LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE
AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z/MON.
HOWEVER...BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING...MOST REMAIN VFR FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
DESPITE THE RAIN. ALSO...THE LATEST RAP13 SUGGESTS RH VALUES AT
AND BELOW 925 MB REMAIN BELOW 70 PERCENT...SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PERSISTS TO LIMIT CIGS FROM DROPPING TO MVFR OR
BELOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SO...FOR LATEST TAFS...HAVE DELAYED
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AT KGFL
AND KPSF. STILL EXPECTED OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB- KPSF.
AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND OF 8-12 KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS AT
KALB...WITH LESS GUSTINESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AS A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KGFL/KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
AT LESS THAN 10-12 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KT.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL LLWS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST
SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER.
RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
655 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORKS REGION THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN
THAT...JUST CHANGED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
HIGH RH IN THE 850-600MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE DAY...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY DRY BELOW 850MB SO WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. POPS IN
GENERAL HIGHER TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT CAPPED AT
CHC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MARGINAL CONDS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. KHPN COULD ALSO DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN
170-210 DEGREES TRUE. GUSTS 20-25KT DEVELOP AFT 12Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST THIS AFTN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
11-12Z. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS
AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FRQ GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS AND COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT
BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MICHIGAN...LAKE ERIE...AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND HEADED TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
STRONG S-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS IS BRINGING IN SOME
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MID
MORNING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
NON PAVED SURFACES. SFC TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S OVER THE REGION...ESP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN VT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S....BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD
ALL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND ANY WINTRY
PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN THERE AS WELL.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT PERIODS OF RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DAY THANKS TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL MAY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESP FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY. 925 HPA WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME...AS
THE INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH DURING THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
TEMPS TODAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS TONIGHT
WON/T FALL OFF TOO MUCH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. WITH
THE APPROACHING SFC FRONT...SOME MORE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL START TO SWITCH TO THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
IT MAY TAKE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...RAINFALL LOOKS TO END...AND TEMPS WILL START TO COOL OFF
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE RAIN COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END FOR MOST
AREAS BEFORE IT CAN COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO
OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF REX BLOCKING AT
UPPER LEVELS WHICH NOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.
RATHER AMAZING CHANGE TO THE OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
PATTERN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS
DUE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES. IT WAS THIS
LOW THAT MODELS WERE RETROGRADING AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOW IT APPEARS THE REX BLOCKING WILL BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE
AND A MILDER TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS LARGE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE I95 CORRIDOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC...WE WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF POPS/WX FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TAKING A RUN AT 70F TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN/SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS STILL
IN VFR TERRITORY. HOWEVER...EXPECTATIONS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LOWERING OF AT LEAST THE CIGS
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS/RAIN...IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO
PLACE IN THE TAFS AS WE WILL KEEP THE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...A MORE
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR FOR KGFL-KALB-
KPSF.
AS FOR WINDS...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20KTS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. THE QUESTION WILL BE LLWS
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDS TO GUST OVER 25 MPH TODAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESP FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. ALONG WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE OVERCAST
SKIES...PERIODS OF RAINFALL...AND RH VALUES ONLY FALLING TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH FOR TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. RH VALUES WILL 80 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TOTAL...ONE HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THIS RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NO URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME EITHER.
RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW...AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
558 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCLUDES
SWLY JET CORES OF 40-55KT 850-700MB RESPECTIVELY, GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL PA, WHICH DRIVES PACKETS OF MID LVL GENERATED SHOWERS
ENEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE I-95
WESTWARD. 00Z/11 EC IS TOO DRY. THE HRRR IS CATCHING UP AND I
THINK THE 0-6Z/11 UKMET/GFS/NAM BLEND IS BEST FOR SHOWERY PERIODS
THIS MORNING. ONE BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN ANOTHER CONFINED MORE
ACROSS NE PA MID MORNING. HAVE USED COVERAGE WORDING THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SCT SHOWERS IN E PA (WORDED USING
UNCERTAINTY)...OTHERWISE A TENDENCY FOR THICK MID LVL OVERCAST TO
THIN AND PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE I-95 SEWD WITH
TEMPS WARMING 10-15F ABOVE YDYS VALUES. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25-30 MPH.
SREF PWAT IS ABOUT 0.9 INCHES TODAY.
FORECAST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS ADJUSTED A BIT WARMER BY
THE 00Z/11 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND TODAYS POPS WERE ADJUSTED ABOVE THIS
BLEND BY THE 00Z/11 UKMET QPF.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS PROBABLY ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY. IT STARTS PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING
THEN BECOMES OVERCAST LATE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS
10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS FCST IS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS. DEWPOINTS WERE
RAISED IN THE 630 AM FCST FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BY BLENDING
THE 06Z/11 NAM 2M DEWS WITH THE PHI FCST. THIS ALSO IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE 00Z/11 ECMWF. ALSO RAISED POPS TONIGHT IN THIS 630
AM FCST UPDATE AND WORDING WILL NOW SAY `POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN` I-95
NWWD LATE TONIGHT. THIS BECAUSE SREF AVERAGED PWAT INCREASES TO
1.25 INCHES BY MORNING AND A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
ENTIRE COLUMN DEEP LIFT TO 250MB. SHOULD HAVE 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES IN
A 3 HOUR PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AS THE HIGH EXITS STAGE RIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL FLEX SOUTHEASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY. THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WITH THE LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WHAT IT WILL DO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND RETROGRADE IT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, SPECIFIC DETAILS WITH ANY LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.
TEMPERATURES...FOR COMPARISON...NORMALS FOR PHL ARE LOW 60S AND LOW
40S. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH TWO CLOSED LOWS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S.,
THE MODELS AREN`T IN ANY HURRY TO HEAT THINGS UP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND ONCE BOTH LOWS DO OPEN UP, IT
APPEARS THE MEAN NORTH AMERICAN TROF WILL SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE
EAST. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES
INLAND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE`LL SEE THE RIDGE JUST
TO OUR WEST BUILD OVER THE REGION AND PUSH UP TEMPS, AT LEAST FOR A
SHORT TIME. COULD BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT`S
CURRENTLY PAINTED IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THEY`LL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND PULL OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL POPS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE REGION. IF THE LOW HEADS
SOUTH, WE`LL BE DRY.
WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MOST EVERYWHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STAY PUT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST GUSTS, IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS AOA 5000 FT OVERALL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD THIN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THE REGION FROM KPHL S AND E. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. PLEASE SEE TAFS
FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT: VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS EVENING THEN VFR CIGS DEVELOP
LATE AT NIGHT, PROBABLY BECOMING MVFR CONDS IN MDT SHOWERS AFTER
08Z TUESDAY THE 12TH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY LIFTING TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES...GUSTY S-SW WIND 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 OR 8 FEET IN
THE DEVELOPING LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH. WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE
BAY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR THE UPPER BAY. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST.
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AND COULD SPREAD INTO ALL
OF THE DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG 558
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 558
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1008 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM
SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES
LOOK ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST.
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF
I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER70S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE
EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT
SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL RISK OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH
AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE
THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN
IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Updated the forecast this morning to have showers south of I-72
with isolated thunderstorms from I-70 southeast, diminishing
quicker from nw to se during mid/late afternoon. Also issued a
freeze warning overnight until 9 am Tuesday for central IL north
of I-70 with lows 28-32F. Highs today range from the lower 50s
from Peoria and Bloomington north, to the upper 50s in southeast
IL.
15Z/10 am surface map shows the cold front in far southeast IL
approaching the Mount Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county.
1012 mb low pressure was along this front in southern IL with
another 1012 mb low pressure near the AR/MO border as this frontal
boundary extended sw into nw AR. A widespread area of showers was
south of I-72 this morning with pockets of moderate to heavier
rain showers. Most of the thunderstorms are now southeast of
Lawrence county ahead of the cold front. Mid/high clouds have
thickened up over northern CWA during the morning while low/mid
overcast skies from I-72 south with the rain showers.
Latest forecast models take cold front southeast to the Ohio river
during this afternoon while weak low pressures move ne along it.
Shower chances to gradually diminish and end from nw to se during
the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible southeast of
I-70 for a couple more hours into early afternoon. The little
wabash river at Clay City expected to rise above flood stage
during this afternoon, while the Embarras river at Lawrenceville
is forecast to rise above flood stage by mid evening. Temperatures
at 1030 am range from lower 40s from Peoria northward to the mid
50s in Lawrence county. Cloud decrease north of I-72 during
mid/late afternoon to allow temps to rise about another 10 degrees
into the lower 50s, while clouds and rain showers most of the day
keep temps nearly steady in southeast IL where highs in the mid to
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
The cold front has progressed south of all the terminal sites
already this morning. CMI and DEC were the last to see the passage
in just the last few hours. CMI is the only site to still see LIFR
conditions with a ovc002 ceiling and 3/4sm BR fog. DEC has MVFR
vis at TAF start time. Upstream trends indicate CMI and DEC should
see VFR conditions develop by 15z at the latest. A band of rain
showers will persist south of I-72 today, but no rain is expected
at the terminal sites.
Winds behind the cold front will become NW and increase to 13g23kt
through the day. Northwest winds will diminish quickly tonight
under advancing high pressure, remaining 3-6kt overnight.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
626 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
218 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW
PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV
ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND
ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES
EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND
ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND
MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE
WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW
INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
218 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE...
HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES
WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT
STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING
SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS
WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME
70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE
LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE
50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN
NW INDIANA.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
626 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE TERMINALS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST BUT STILL SOME LINGERING FOG/PATCHY LOW CIGS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR WHICH MAY AFFECT GYY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO
QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Little change in thinking from previous forecast. A period of
VLIFR conditions can be expected over parts of the TAF area late
tonight into the early morning hours due to low clouds and fog
just ahead of the cold front, which at this hour was just west
of PIA. Once the front shifts east of the area, we expect improving
conditions to work their way from northwest to southeast during
the early morning hours. VFR conditions should begin to affect the
PIA area around 10z and by 16z in our far eastern TAF site, CMI.
Rain with isold TSRA can be expected mainly south of a SPI to
CMI line over the next few hours just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, as the front settles southeast across the state, we
expect precip chances to decrease from northwest to southeast
during the early morning hours. Light south to southwest winds
ahead of the cold front will become northwest to north after the
frontal passage later tonight with speeds on Monday ranging from
10 to 15 kts with a few afternoon gusts around 20 kts at times
before diminishing quickly around 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...IMPROVING
AFTER 21Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE NW FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS WERE PUSHING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BAND
OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HUF-IND-BMG TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SRN INDIANA BY MID
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DRAMATIC DRYING AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1018 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING RADAR TRENDS AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND WRF MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR
TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-
DAY...AND THEN EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...A LULL IN
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE
STABLE RAIN COOLED AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE WELL DISPLACED
FROM THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTIVE
RISK SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR AND
SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD ALOFT. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA IS
DRIVING CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA.
CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS ONSHORE FLOW
HAS PICKED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH MOST
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S THIS MORNING AND DEW POINTS NEAR
60.
SHORT TERM...
OUR SPELL OF DRY WEATHER IS ABOUT TO END. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...REACHING NEAR
THE MEMPHIS AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...WITH VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BAND OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED
SCENARIO. WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK...WITH A FEW COUNTIES/PARISHES NORTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE IN A SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDINGS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A
LITTLE BETTER LOOK.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE NEAR MEMPHIS AT 12Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...AND WILL CARRY LOWER POPS ON TUESDAY. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EARLY IN THE DAY.
MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOWER AS
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. MAIN
THREAT WITH WEDNESDAY CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE LAST WEEK...SO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN. 35
LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE DETAILS A LITTLE MURKY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
GETS HUNG UP OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE
GETTING SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA. CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
COMPLETELY DRY PERIOD...AND WILL TREND A BIT TOWARD THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE FOR LOWS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...BUT ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35
AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST LOWER CEILINGS INITIALLY AND THEN LEADING TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
FOG FORMATION IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TODAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55.
98/SO
MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR SO SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED EASTERLY FLOW OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL
PERSIST. 98/SO
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 65 74 57 / 70 60 40 10
BTR 79 67 79 60 / 60 50 40 20
ASD 77 68 78 62 / 60 50 50 10
MSY 78 68 79 65 / 50 50 50 20
GPT 76 68 76 62 / 60 50 50 10
PQL 77 68 76 62 / 60 60 50 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
941 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO
REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
648 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT/CANNON
MARINE...ARNOTT/CANNON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO UPPER MI. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO TREND
DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTN...THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR THIS EVENING. AT
KIWD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AND LIKELY REMAIN
MVFR THRU TONIGHT. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 20-30KT
TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 35KT AT KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ250-251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO LAST LONG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BROUGHT AN
MVFR CEILING INTO KMOT. LOOKS LIKE KBIS AND KJMS COULD SEE UP TO A
COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND
CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH AN INCREASING DRY AIRMASS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND
INCLUDING AROUND KJMS BEFORE 15 UTC...OTHERWISE GOOD VFR WEATHER
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH
VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS.
TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE
TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A
SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA IS STARTING OFF IN THE 49-52 DEGREE RANGE
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...EXPECT LITTLE CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS IN THE
RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE/MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SWATH OF
STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A
SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN
THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN
INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND
ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR
ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
650 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS SYSTEM IS THE ONLY
INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC AND TAKING THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...A
SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINS WHERE
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WATER HELD UP IN
THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OF UNDER AN
INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM PONDING AND
ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE 50S FOR
ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...FIRST
REACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND KERI BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ147-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR 10Z...IN THE FAST FLOW...WILL JUST BE A BIT FASTER INCREASING
POPS 21Z TO 23Z IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
AND SWINGING EAST THIS EVENING.
....REST FROM THE 08Z RELEASE...
AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE 122Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY SET OF TAFS...
FAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 850 MB AROUND 60 KNOTS IN THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE 14Z TO 20Z TODAY...BEFORE WEAKING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HTS-CRW LINE THROUGH 20Z...
COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 21Z TRI STATE VCNTY HTS...INCLUDING
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 22Z TO 08Z.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY INCLUDING KBKW.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...INCLUDING SAY KUNI...KPKB...AND KHTS 20Z TO 01Z...WHERE DEW
POINT MAXIMUM AND BEST SUPPORT ALOFT INDICATED...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
MOST CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY NEAR 5
MILES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 22Z TO 06Z...AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE A HOUR OR SO FASTER ON FRONT...THEN FIGURED BACK FOR THE 06Z
SET OF TAFS...NEARING KPKB AT 03Z...AND NEAR HTS AROUND 04Z...CRW TO CKB
AROUND 05/06Z...AND THRU MOUNTAINS BY 09Z.
CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING NEAR FRONT...AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWLAND CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD TO 15 HND FT AND
VSBY 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING 09Z TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
INCLUDING KHTS AND KPKB...AND EVEN INTO KCKB IN NORTH CENTRAL WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY VCNTY KHTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
825 AM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY...SEE
THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH FROM ABOUT THE WINTER RIM AREA OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES AND THE MODOC PLATEAU WESTWARD IN THE USUALLY MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. MOST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
0.50" TO 1.5" RANGE. 0.25" TO 0.75" WILL FALL IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
IT IS SPRING...THE TIME FOR VARIED WEATHER OVER THE AREA...AND A
RETURN TO DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS IS ON DECK FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE THURSDAY HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS ARE AT THE
COAST...COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN
MVFR BUT LIFT TO VFR INLAND LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM IS STILL A
THREAT FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.
/SVEN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL BECOMING HIGH
AND STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAT
MAY PRODUCE GALES AND SEAS APPROACHING 17 FEET. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
REACH A PEAK WITH ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT WAVE
WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL INCREASING TO OVER
24 FEET THURSDAY. MODELS ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSTANT WITH THIS
VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
AS WELL. /SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
15/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK
THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 10 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 20 10 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 5 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 20 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 20 10 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 30 10 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 30 10 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 30 10 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 30 10 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 5 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THINK ANY FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EAST WITH THE 500 MB FLOW.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE SOME SUNSHINE AND THE
GOOD MIXING TODAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE TRICKY. FOR NOW...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL EITHER
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.
LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
EASTERN SITES...WITH WINDS SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. MADISON
SHOULD SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING. HIGH WAVES WILL REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE JET MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTION
OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
700 MB RH IS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVELS DRY
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT THE HIGHER RH
REMAINS WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE RUC AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF
THE RISING INVERSION. THE INVERSION RISES AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND WITH SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO THE SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL BE SHALLOW. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM
THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
INTO MN LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH STARTS TO
MODIFY BUT QUITE SLOWLY. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH 850
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME IN PLACE. ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED WHICH STARTS THE
COOLER NEAR PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 WAA RAMPS UP AND BEST FOCUS FOR QPF EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL WI. WAS CONSIDERING A POP FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA ESP GIVEN
THE MORE EXPANSIVE APPROACH TO THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGD PLACEMENT OF 850 JET TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PUSH TO OUR NORTH AND THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF DCVA
WITH SHORTWAVE...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH OVERALL SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTH IN
THE MID LEVELS. NICE UPTICK IN THE 925 TEMPS WITH VALUES PUSHING
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...SO EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTY
OF INLAND 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
QUIET PATTERN WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND EXPECTED. 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED UP WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACRS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN 500 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL ONLY
SLOWLY CRAWL OUT ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
925 TEMPS WILL BE RISING NICELY INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN 60S BECOMING MUCH MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
CWA. STILL EXPECTING A COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SCENARIO ALL THE WAY
THROUGH GIVEN THE SE SYNOPTIC WIND AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND
WEAK GRADIENT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A REINFORCING LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENT AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING IFR CIGS/FOG FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 9 TO 9.7 CELSIUS/KM THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE MIXED DOWN WITH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO NEAR 30 KTS.
MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND LOW PRESSURE
EXITING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. OFFSHORE FETCH
WILL LIMIT HIGH WAVES TO LOCATIONS OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
227 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE
NJ...NYC METRO...AND LI WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BASED
ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY...SOME OF THIS CLEARING WILL WORK NE INTO
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. THIS HAS ALLOWED
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE MARITIME INFLUENCE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
60S. THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPOTS WITH THE LOW
TO MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY EVENING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 08Z TUESDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT MVG NE ACROSS AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC WITH NO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL NEAR 08Z
TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FCST WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 08Z WEST UNTIL
NEARLY 16Z EAST.
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGHEST FROM JFK/LGA EAST...SUSTAINED
S WINDS ARND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT UNTIL 23Z.
WINDS TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT JFK/LGA
EAST UNTIL 09Z.
WINDS TUESDAY...SHIFT FROM THE WNW FOLLOWING CFP AT 15-20 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST
UNTIL 11Z TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE AFTN...RAIN ENDING SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY
22Z...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NNW 10-15KT.
.WED...VFR. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.THU-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 10-15 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
125 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER THE
CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MARITIME AIRMASS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LIKELY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...AND 20 TO 30 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PCPN
THOUGH IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IN ADDITION...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME
HEATING...THUS STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY
LATE FOR AREAS NW OF THE CITY. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME ANAFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL SUNDOWN AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGHS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND POST-FRONTAL RAINS PUSHING OFFSHORE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK...TRANSITIONING TO AN OMEGA BLOCKED PATTERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOWS AND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND
MIDWEEK AND THEN REMAINS LOCKED IN POSITION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPELL DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS.
FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON INTERACTION OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST EARLIER TODAY...WITH ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND GUIDED BY STRENGTH
OF HUDSONS BAYS TROUGHING. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAT THE UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS...THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND. AS APPARENT IN THE UNITED EASTWARD SHIFT IN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM SUN 12Z TO MON 00Z...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY KEEP
A BROAD LOW WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SE COAST FOR LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...WITH INCREASED SLP SPREAD NOTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING LOW AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. ALTHOUGH OPER MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
LOW...BASED ON SPREAD NOTED ABOVE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. IF THE LOW REMAINS EAST...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A
MODERATING TREND TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS FCST THROUGH UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONT UNTIL ARND 17Z...MAINLY FROM NYC
N AND W THEN...DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
WINDS...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES TRUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
VEERING FURTHER TO THE SW-W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 KT ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS ARND 25 KT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.
UNCERTAINTY ON GUSTS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AFT 03Z AS
A LOW LVL WIND JET DEVELOPS...HOWEVER SFC INVERSION COULD PRECLUDE
THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 5 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTN AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE
PUSH.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVE PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS AND
COULD LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TUE...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW WND 10-20G20-30KT EARLY TUE
MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TUES AFTN EVEN THOUGH GUSTS
PROBABLY FALL BELOW 25 KT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...EXPECTING WIND GUSTS RIGHT AROUND
25KT TODAY. HAVE ADDED THE HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND TO THE SCA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS SCA TO INCLUDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS.
SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. PERIODS OF MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY LATE WEEK DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OFFSHORE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECTING
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
111 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER HAS WORKED ITS WAY TO THE
COAST...BUT LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE DATA SUGGEST CLEARING WITH
THE SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY TRENDS. ALSO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT CLOSER THE COAST PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS FINE.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION, MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
SUSPECT THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
THICK CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED FORM ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TODAY, THUS GENERATING SPURIOUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED.
THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL ERODE FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SKY CHARACTER WILL RANGE FROM
SUNNY/MOST SUNNY AT THE COAST TO PARTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE BEACHES
LOOK ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HELP SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 60 INLAND WITH MID 60S AT THE COAST.
TUESDAY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES...WARM CONVEYOR BELT TRANSPORT OF DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT MOST/ALL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST FORECAST RAMPS POPS UP TO LIKELY WEST OF
I-95/CHANCE EAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST INLAND AND NORTH.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS A GENERAL/BIG PICTURE SCENARIO...AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL COMPEL ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A POCKET OF 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
THE PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE NON-ZERO...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST/INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE PUSH OFFSHORE. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
ORDER ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S NORTH/UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST/ALL SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST AREAS THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THIS PERIOD BY THE UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF A SYNOPTIC BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE
RELATIVE STRENGTH/POSITION OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE 11/00 UTC OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK WHICH
SUPPORTS AN EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY/WARMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
CONTRAST...THE 11/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS INITIALLY PLACES THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FARTHER EAST THAN THE
EURO...TRAPPING AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR REGION AND HOLDING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
BREEZY/WINDY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE WEEK UNTIL THE DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE PRESSES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE LOW AWAY LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERGENT
SCENARIOS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RECOVERING TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING--A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR PERIODIC
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MID/LATE WEEK WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. LOOKS FOR A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THIS GUSTINESS COUPLED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE WILL LIKELY GENERATE
RATHER NASTY CONDITIONS DUE TO COUNTERFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY...BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE...S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE/A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH
AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST/A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. AS A RESULT...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THE RESULTING ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GFS AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 9-12 FEET AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. WHILE
THE LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS WINDS/SEAS BELOW THESE LEVELS...EVEN
IN A BEST CASE SCENARIO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK OR EVEN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1257 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
218 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA ALONG A STRONGER PW
PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS AREA HAS MORE PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HAS SOME UPPER FORCING SUPPORT WITH A PV
ANOMALY WORKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH IS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND
ALONG A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. AFTER THIS MOVES
EAST...THERE IS ONE LAST WEAK SURGE OF FORCING THAT MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WELL SOUTH OF I-80 AND INTO BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES OF
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND IN HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS TO LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
HANG ONTO SOME LOWER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO NW AND
ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER OUR BRIEF TASTE OF DAMP AND
MUGGIER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
40S OR SO WILL CRASH DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE 20S LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE COOLING IS SUBTLE
WITH THE FRONT...AND WITH SUNSHINE ARRIVING HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK
TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST IN NW
INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS WILL SETUP ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
218 AM CDT
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE COMPLAINT DEPARTMENT...FULL OF COOL WET AND WINTRY NOTICES OF LATE...
HAS DECIDED TO TAKE ACTION THIS WEEK...REWARDING MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST WITH DRY...LARGELY SUNNY... AND CONTINUED WARMING WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW/LAKE BREEZES
WHICH WILL KEEP LAKE ADJACENT LOCATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
INLAND. BUT A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE LAKE AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW THAT INFLUENCED OUR WEATHER MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. 850/925 TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY COOL A TOUCH. STILL EXPECT A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY...BUT
STILL SEASONABLY COOL. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNENDING
SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION TO SPEAK OF WITH THIS ONE....THUS
WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN...BRINGING AREA WIDE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MID 50S...AGAIN MUCH COOLER AT THE LAKE WITH 40S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OUR LOCAL AREA BECOMES THE BENEFICIARY OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
WHERE WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER SPREAD AND A HIGH LEVEL OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR EVEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS CHICAGO. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS...GENERALLY A SE WIND BUT WITH LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT CHICAGO (OHARE) AND ROCKFORD ARE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S...AND WE WILL GET THERE BY THURSDAY AT ROCKFORD...BUT
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND FOR CHICAGO WITH SOME LAKE INFLUENCE. SOME
70S WELL SOUTH AND WEST LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
MANY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 60S. READINGS AT THE
LAKEFRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH THROUGH THE 40S AND SHOULD GET TO THE
50S BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE IN
NW INDIANA.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME SFC WARMING...DEEPER MIXING IS
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THAT GUSTS SHOULD
END WITH SUNSET. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...THE
BUILDING HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH SKIES
BECOMINGMOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE ADJACENT LAND...A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO FORM...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NELY-ELY AROUND 10KT BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
212 AM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO
QUEBEC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30KTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHERLY BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS WEEKEND. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1252 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Updated the forecast this morning to have showers south of I-72
with isolated thunderstorms from I-70 southeast, diminishing
quicker from nw to se during mid/late afternoon. Also issued a
freeze warning overnight until 9 am Tuesday for central IL north
of I-70 with lows 28-32F. Highs today range from the lower 50s
from Peoria and Bloomington north, to the upper 50s in southeast
IL.
15Z/10 am surface map shows the cold front in far southeast IL
approaching the Mount Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county.
1012 mb low pressure was along this front in southern IL with
another 1012 mb low pressure near the AR/MO border as this frontal
boundary extended sw into nw AR. A widespread area of showers was
south of I-72 this morning with pockets of moderate to heavier
rain showers. Most of the thunderstorms are now southeast of
Lawrence county ahead of the cold front. Mid/high clouds have
thickened up over northern CWA during the morning while low/mid
overcast skies from I-72 south with the rain showers.
Latest forecast models take cold front southeast to the Ohio river
during this afternoon while weak low pressures move ne along it.
Shower chances to gradually diminish and end from nw to se during
the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible southeast of
I-70 for a couple more hours into early afternoon. The little
wabash river at Clay City expected to rise above flood stage
during this afternoon, while the Embarras river at Lawrenceville
is forecast to rise above flood stage by mid evening. Temperatures
at 1030 am range from lower 40s from Peoria northward to the mid
50s in Lawrence county. Cloud decrease north of I-72 during
mid/late afternoon to allow temps to rise about another 10 degrees
into the lower 50s, while clouds and rain showers most of the day
keep temps nearly steady in southeast IL where highs in the mid to
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
08z/3am surface analysis shows cold front along a Danville to
Taylorville line...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
occurring ahead of it across the SE KILX CWA. The precipitation has
come to an end behind the boundary: however, areas of fog have
developed in the very moist low-level airmass. The fog is
thickest/most widespread immediately to the north of the front where
winds are very light...then visibilities improve further north and
west where winds have increased and drier air is beginning to
trickle in from the northwest. Based on expected position of the
boundary and the latest HRRR forecast, have included fog in the
early morning forecast along/south of a Danville to Taylorville
line. Front will only make slow progress southward and with a wave
of low pressure tracking along it, showers will persist for much of
the day across the E/SE CWA. Models disagree on how far north the
precip will spread, with the GFS being the most aggressive with
the developing wave and thus the furthest north with the rain.
Meanwhile, higher-res models such as the NAM, Rapid Refresh, and
HRRR all maintain a weaker surface low and keep the precip further
south. Given lack of a strong wave currently and only modest
upper support, think the weaker solution is the way to go. As a
result, have confined PoPs to locations along/south of I-72...with
the heaviest rains remaining along/south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
Once the surface wave tracks into the Ohio River Valley later today,
the front will get pulled southward and any lingering showers will
come to an end across the far SE CWA early this evening. As another
strong Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies
will clear and temperatures will drop tonight. Clear skies and
diminishing winds will allow good radiational cooling to develop,
which will cause lows to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a result, a Freeze Warning will likely be needed...especially
for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
The high will be overhead on Tuesday, ensuring sunny but cool
conditions with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Another
potentially frosty night will be in store Tuesday night as the ridge
axis remains overhead and lows dip back into the lower 30s. After
that, a steady warming trend will be in store through the remainder
of the extended. The persistent upper troughing over eastern
Canada/Great Lakes will be replaced by a ridge axis as blocking
develops across the CONUS by the end of the week. The only possible
fly-in-the-ointment will be a weak upper wave projected to track
under the ridge axis across the mid-Mississippi River Valley into
the Tennessee River Valley Thursday into Friday. So far, the models
are keeping this feature south of Illinois, but it will have to be
monitored over the next few runs to see if the track changes. For
now, am expecting warm and dry conditions right through next
weekend. High temperatures will climb each and every day, reaching
the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2016
A cold front pushing southeast toward the Ohio river early this
afternoon, will push southeast into central KY by sunset, while
weak 1012 mb low pressure in southeast MO and near Evansville IN
lift ne along this boundary. Large area of rain showers south of
I-72 may bring isolated light showers to DEC and CMI for another
hour or two before exiting se of central IL, and carried VCSH to
accomodate this with broken to overcast mid level clouds around
10k ft. Otherise VFR conditions expected during the next 24 hours
across central IL as 1026 mb Canadian high pressure near the
Sasketchewan and Manitoba province line and ridging southward
across the Dakotas, drifts southeast into southeast WI/eastern IA
and nw IL by 18Z/1 pm Tue. Broken cirrus clouds early this
afternoon will scattered out between 21-24Z from nw to se and then
clear skies expected tonight into Tue. Breezy nw winds 10-16 kts
and gusts of 17-23 kts to diminish to around 10 kts late this
afternoon and then 4-7 kts after sunset this evening. Winds then
veer more NE 6-9 kts Tue morning. No fog expected overnight with
nw winds advecting in drier Canadian air as dewpoints slip into
the low to mid 20s by dawn Tue over central IL.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE
BLOCK FOR THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER RIDGE CAMPS OUT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH OVER QUEBEC
WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND
THUS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREEING...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S LATE WEEK AND LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF
AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY
CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE
THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO
9 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KMIE TO THE INDY METRO TO JUST SOUTH OF KHUF
AT 1330Z. STEADY AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HAVING BRIEFLY WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. VIS SATELLITE EVEN SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NEAR KLAF CURRENTLY. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING.
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF
POPS AND FINE TUNING TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY WILL TRACK E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A RENEWED
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL POPS LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO END PRECIP AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON MOST RECENT
HRRR/RAP/WRF DATA. TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDER MENTION A BIT TOO AND
PRIMARILY HAVE FOCUSED IT NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UTILIZED RAP HOURLY TEMPS TO HELP FRAME THE HIGHS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A COUPLE DEGREES ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...THEN POTENTIALLY BOUNCE BACK UP A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATE DAY
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WILL CARRY SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT 03Z AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE
HEADLINES BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO GET THROUGH THIS EVENT FIRST AND
ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS IF NECESSARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING HIGH.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOSS OF COL NWERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE BACK TOWARD AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SUPERBLEND
HANDLES ALL OF THIS PRETTY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 111800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
EXPECT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 20Z-22Z AT LAF
AND HUF AND AFTER 22Z-00Z AT IND AND BMG. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER DARK AND REMAIN CLEAR ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY
CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT...THAT FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE
THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER 23Z. WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 6 TO
9 KNOTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN SHRA/TSRA ACTION REMAINS ACROSS NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST. NAM12 SHOWS WE SHOULD BE
COVERED WITH TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C & S LA NOW WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
WHERE IT SUPPOSED TO BE. THUS...USING HRRR AS A GUIDE FOR LATER
CONVECTION TIMING ACROSS C LA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT FOR
AEX...TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA BETWEEN 06-09Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND INTERMITTENT LIFR
BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR ALL SITES. FRONT LIKELY TO PASS THROUGH AEX
AFTER DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
14-15Z.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO RUN UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT THAT
EXTENDS BACK INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL HANG UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING A MUCH WARMER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK AND HIGHER MOISTURES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS INLAND.
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HAVE PASSED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
COOL FRONT AS IT MAKES IT WAY TO THE COASTLINE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL RAMP UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGNITE AS OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. RAINS WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
A COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ENDING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL FRONT WILL
STALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MEANDER IN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 65 73 56 71 / 50 20 30 50
LCH 69 80 60 72 / 30 20 60 80
LFT 70 79 63 73 / 40 30 50 80
BPT 68 80 61 72 / 20 20 70 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
100 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1255 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO
INGEST THE LATEST MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREV DISC...
930 AM...LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
GRIDS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS...INGEST THE 13Z MESONET...AND TO
REFLECT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.
PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND RADAR TRENDS THIS HOUR. SUBLIMATION CONTINUES AS
THE ECHOES MARCH EAST...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY -FZRA...HOWEVER THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ALL
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE REACHING THE
GROUND OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND 09Z. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST GIVEN THE VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 11Z OR
12Z MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO ABOVE
FREEZING. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DESPITE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...NORTHERN REGIONS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THE INVERSION
WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AND DO HAVE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH FORECAST
FOR THE COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSED AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE CHANGEOVER...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ALL
AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. DESPITE
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE
WEEK WITH DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF LOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A -NAO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHING NORTH INTO
GREENLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SITUATED BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL BRING OUR PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL
PROMOTE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL /AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN STATES/. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST WILL CUTOFF OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE PLAYING
A LARGE ROLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE CUTOFF...THE
OVERALL TREND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM THE RECENT WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES TO AT LEAST SEASONAL NORMS.
MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE WITH CUTOFF LOW SCENARIOS IS
ALWAYS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH CONFIDENCE FURTHER SHAKEN BY RECENT RUN
TO RUN DISCONTINUITIES. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A CUTOFF LOW
POSITION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH FEWER /IF ANY/ IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DETAILS...
COLD FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH THIS HIGH PUSHING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RATHER ROBUST WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVERHEAD /WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT STALLS EAST OF THE AREA/.
POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THIS...PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH T8S WARMING FROM AROUND -5C ON
WEDNESDAY TO -2C ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED MIXING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...FALLING AT
OR JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS /40S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER-
MID 50S TO THE SOUTH/.
CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTERACTS WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO CLOSE THIS SYSTEM OFF FURTHER SOUTH /WITH THE 00Z
GFS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST/...WHICH WOULD YIELD
LESS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. EXAMINING THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD
/THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/ AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRST PULLED WEST AS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPS. BEYOND
THIS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE CONSENSUS LOW POSITION
GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THUS...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS /ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY/ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NORTH OF THE
CUTOFF...AND WITH LESS DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
TIME...EXPECT AN ONGOING MODERATING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
OF COURSE...KEEP IN MIND THAT CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD FOR
NUMERICAL MODELS TO ACCURATELY DEPICT. THERE REMAIN A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...THAT WOULD SPELL A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MUCH LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT
AND LIGHT WINDS REMAIN AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN INVERSION. CEILING
AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO RAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE WESTERN ROUTES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MVFR RESTRICTIONS/ ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BEYOND
THIS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...INCREASING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
HOWEVER A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE COLD GULF
OF MAINE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MIXING TO BE DIMINISHED.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD...BUT EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 7 TO 11
FEET OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL
MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFTS /DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS/ POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD TODAY. USED THE NART GRIDS AND WAVE
RUNUP MATRICES AS WELL AS IN-HOUSE TABLES TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE
ANY SPLASH-OVER ACROSS THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF COASTAL YORK AND
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION TODAY.
WILL MONITOR THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY TIDE...HOWEVER TIDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 FEET. THIS IS A 10.9 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WITH A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE WILL REACH
ABOUT 11.4 FEET. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 FEET AT THAT
TIME.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT SFC...A LOW WAS CENTERED IN ONTARIO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NRN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPER
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND FORCING/INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THE MID-
LVL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA HAS GENERATED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHSN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. USING A BLEND OF SOME OF THE
NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE (ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW)...REG CANADIAN QPF AND
LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE ADVY SNOWS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.2 TO AS MUCH AS 0.35 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW LOCATIONS FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS
REGION (ERN BARAGA/NW MQT COUNTIES) COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING STILL THIS AFTERNOON AND MELTING ON ROADS FROM HIGHER
APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS...WL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A SPS FOR KEWEENAW-HOUGHTON-BARAGA
AND MQT COUNTIES FOR SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN FAVORED NW
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AWAY FROM NW UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -
SHSN/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FROM LINGERING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED SHSN DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING OVER ERN COUNTIES AS WINDS COME AROUND MORE NW WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION
THERE TO NO MORE THAN INCH OR TWO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS TO 25-30 KT TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND Q-VECT
DIV/DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG....EXPECT
SHSN TO TAPER OFF OR END FM WEST OVERNIGHT.
TUE...LOWERING INVERSIONS TO 4KFT AND SHARP DRYING BLO INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY END ANY LINGERING NW FLOW LES OVER ERN COUNTIES.
KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE
BRINGS WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL AS H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND TO LOWER 40S FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH A SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE
AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP
TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS
WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE
WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS 00Z WED. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU. NAM BRINGS IN SOME WEAK
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR THU NIGHT.
NAM...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND GFS ALL SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON I285K SURFACE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL AND WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT AND THEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR WED. DRY
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GET
FLATTENED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SOME COLDER AIR RETURNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SFC...
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING THRU ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI.
SOME FOG LINGERS JUST AHEAD OF/NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN FCST
AREA. NO PCPN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TO THE W...SOME
-SHSN/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN NE MN INTO ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO UNDER
DEEPER MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF EXTENDING W FROM
THE SFC LOW.
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF DROPS S...PASSING ACROSS THE
FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C
TODAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTN...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WRN FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
TROF. UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE PCPN. NCEP HIGH RES GUIDANCE
(ARW/NMM/NAM WINDOW) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY SNOWS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRRAIN OF NW UPPER MI WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.3 TO AS MUCH AS
0.5 INCHES TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY RAP/HRRR RUNS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY LOWER...DID NOT FULLY INCORPORATE THE HIGH
QPF MODELS INTO THE FCST. RESULT IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY MARGINALLY REACHING ADVY CRITERIA OF 2-4 INCHES FOR
LOWER SNOW-TO-WATER RATIO SNOWFALL. SINCE TEMPS WERE ABOVE FREEZING
YESTERDAY AND ARE ONLY NOW JUST REACHING FREEZING AGAIN IN NW UPPER
MI AND WITH HIGHER APRIL SUN ANGLE WORKING THRU CLOUDS TO SOME
DEGREE...THERE SHOULD BE DECENT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADS UNLESS
MDT/HVY SNOW RATES DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ADVY ISSUANCE. WILL OBVIOUSLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AWAY FROM NW
UPPER MI...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING/COLD AIR ALOFT AS 500MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -30C. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 25-30KT. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE KEWEENAW...AND WITH A FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION...GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 35-40MPH RANGE THERE.
AS SFC TROF DROPS ACROSS NRN UPPER MI LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL SHIFT S WITH EMPHASIS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND INTO AREAS E OF MARQUETTE. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO
BORDERLINE ADVY AMOUNTS IN ERN BARAGA/NW MARQUETTE COUNTY. A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND THINNING OF
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER WRN UPPER
MI.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
STREAM POLAR BRANCH AFFECTS GREAT LAKES THROUGH WED...THEN AS STRONG
JET CURRENTLY OVER NORTH PACIFIC SURGES TOWARD WESTERN CONUS EXPECT
STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS TO BUILD EAST...LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMER PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALSO BE DRY...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN SHOWERS DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT DUE TO
BRIEF BRUSH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH.
ON TUE...NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH MOISTURE TO 5KFT/DGZ OCCUPYING
MOST OF MOIST LAYER WITH H85 TEMPS -11C/GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. KEPT
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NCNTRL AND EAST CWA IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE AFTN. ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE BRINGS
WINDS TO SW OVER WEST HALF IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS
MAINLY TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
H85 THERMAL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND NEAR 40 DEGREES FAR WEST AND ALONG WI BORDER.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION/H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS TIED TO LEFT
EXIT OF JET STREAK MANITOBA TO NORTHERN MN/WESTERN LK SUPERIOR LOOK
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS CWA...MAXIMIZED OVER WEST CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND INTO CNTRL/EAST CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. SNOW PROBABLY TAPERS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST RAIN
ON WED. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO APPREAR REASONABLE...WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND LEAST CHANCES OVER
EASTERN CWA. ONCE THE PRECIP EXITS...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO
SFC WITH HIGHS ON WED AFTN TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
NEAR 50 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST CWA. WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING ON
WED NIGHT SIDED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS AS LOW AS UPR 20S
INLAND CENTRAL AND EAST.
WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS...INCREASED MAX
TEMPS THU-SUN OVER CONSENSUS. PEAK OF WARMTH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRI/SAT
AND POSSIBLY SUN IF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER UPR LAKES SLOWS UP
SOME. HIGHLY REASONABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF BLOCKY PATTERN. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS MID-UPR 60S AT TOP RANGE...BUT IF MIXING DEPTH IS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND GFS H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C ARE MORE ON THE
MARK...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST TO MAYBE
TOUCH 70 DEGREES. SUCH IT IS OVER GREAT LAKES IN THE SPRING THAT
60S CAN OCCUR EVEN WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. THAT SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE HIT LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIRMASS
SUGGESTS THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE A MORE GRADUAL PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
DEEPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING INTO UPPER MI ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A LOW PRES TROF
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT -SHSN TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACTS AT KCMX. AT KCMX...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR. AT KIWD...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK FOR MORE WESTERLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TUE MORNING. AT
KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR THRU THE PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO 20-30KT TODAY. FAVORABLE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AT KCMX TODAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016
WITH LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SFC TROF
DROPPING S...EXPECT W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THUS...GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. WITH THE TROF
PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N LATE AFTN/EVENING. PRES RISES
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GALES
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH W TO E LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE.
S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE FAR W...WINDS WILL TEND TO BE BACKED MORE
TO THE E OR NE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 25KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-250-251-
264>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>243-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING...BUT
WHERE ENOUGH ISOLATION IS OCCURRING...CU WITH LIMITED GROWTH HAVE
SLOWLY SPROUTED UP. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT A COMMUNITY OVER SW NEB INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT. SINCE THE KLNX WSR-88D IS
QUIET WITH NO DISCERNABLE RETURNS...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST. LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE. A NON-DIURNAL TREND IS
POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE WAA IS STRONGEST TOWARD DAWN.
THE WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAXIMIZED TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20C ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SOLID WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA. A SFC TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PROVIDING FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW NEB WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THESE WX CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE LARGE RANGE
FIRE SPREAD...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EWD WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO SLIDES EWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY WED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DRAG A WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK HOWEVER A GOOD LLJ DEVELOPS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE START OF DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...THOUGH
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...IN
CONNECTION WITH THE LLJ...WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT WED NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SINCE FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT. THERMAL
RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WED AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE AVE.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRONG
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE A SFC LOW
PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN WY WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ADJACENT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NOTABLE LOW
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE MARKING THE TRANSITION BETWEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROF...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED OFF THE HIGHER PLATEAU IN THE WEST.
BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO INDUCES BETTER
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE /THETA-E GRADIENT/. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS IN WRN
KS BUT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AND CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
SINCE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. ATMOSPHERIC PW VALUES DO APPROACH THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THE SWRN PART OF NEB THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WITHIN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE MAX FOR THE DATE...BUT RESULTING QPF
WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFTS. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE ABOVE AVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
ASSUMING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOES NOT DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY FILL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPANDS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAW THE UPPER LOW NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEAKENS AND WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. LAYER PW VALUES REMAIN CLOSE TO MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATING THE ANOMALOUSLY WET CHARACTER OF THE
SYSTEM. WHAT ALSO BECOMES INTERESTING IS THAT THE SFC FEATURES
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF PROGRESSION EWD
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THEREFORE RAINFALL VALUES COULD BE QUITE
DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BUT AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING A MIX
WITH SNOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS STAY JUST A BIT TOO WARM...ALTHOUGH
AS BETTER DETAILS OF THIS IMPENDING SYSTEM BECOME AVAILABLE THAT
MAY CHANGE IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS FAR SW
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE KIML AND/OR KOGA
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE IS FIXED ON SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS AT MOST WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS BEYOND 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS /30 MPH OR GREATER/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AS MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUB 25F
TD/S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 209 THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BUT...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...TD/S WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WHEN CONSIDERING THE
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...THE MODELS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUSLY HIGH WITH
THE PROJECTED VALUES. THE TD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY EMPLOYED A BLEND
OF THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 11.12Z
WRF-ARW TO ACHIEVE A MODEL PREDICTED "WORST-CASE" SCENARIO WITH RH.
AT THAT HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED RH READINGS OF 23% ARE SEEN FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 209. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE CWA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...STOPPKOTTE
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDING TO OUR CURRENT
LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GET SOME CU DEVELOPING SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER. VERY DRY AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION SO DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO LAST LONG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
WE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON SIMULATED MIXING-LAYER WINDS ON
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES RESULTED FROM BLENDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION...RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE INTO TODAY/S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
CURRENTLY...COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
THE HIGH CENTER OVER SASKATCHEWAN...SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 10F TO 20F RANGE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S FARTHER EAST IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DEWPOINT VALUES WERE MAINLY FROM 5F TO 10F
WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE LOW DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NOTABLE...SINCE THIS RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...SUCH THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE DRY AIR WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW - IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS A SUNNY...DRY...QUIET DAY. NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TONIGHT THE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT IN THE
WEST...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
20S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. WARMER
TUESDAY WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 50S EAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE DEEP LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS.THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AND SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
COLD AIR INTRUDES FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A MODERATE
NORTH FLOW AT KJMS TO START THE PERIOD BUT DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 18-20 UTC AT KBIS
AND KMOT. WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AT KDIK AND KISN. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
EACH SITE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING
IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY 03Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA TO CENTRAL OHIO WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL TAFS SITES BUT TOL AND LOWER CIG AND
VSBY TO IFR OR LIFR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
00Z. TOL SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 23Z. CLEARING
WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING VSBY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z
AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND THUS RH VALUES FARTHER WV COAL FIELDS AND
SW VA WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT. ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SW VA IN COORD WITH VA DEPT OF FORESTRY.
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED RH IN SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS OBSERVED RH
VALUES PLUMMET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PERSISTENT STRATUS.
TRAINING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR WEST DOESN`T APPEAR TO POSE
TOO MUCH OF THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AFTER A MINI VACATION...OR WAS IT A
SPRING BREAK...SPRING CAME BACK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 2 TENTHS IN THE OVERNIGHT
RAINS THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS AT 925 MB TO 850 MBS ARE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR
08Z...NWS 88D VADS ARE SENSING 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB HERE AND 50 KNOTS
AT OUR SISTER OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. 850 MB ARE 65 KNOTS HERE AND 80
KNOTS AT WILMINGTON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SOME HILLTOPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS PREDAWN...A FAR
CRY FROM THE HARD FREEZE 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS
14Z TO 19Z BEFORE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CHICAGO AT 08Z...ON SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF ST LOUIS. BASING THE FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER HTS-PKB 03Z TO 05Z...AND PASSING CKB-CRW AROUND 06Z.
AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT FASTER DRYING OUT SOUTHEAST OHIO 06Z TO 12Z.
STILL HUNG ONTO LOW CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS AT DAWN
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
THEN...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS YET.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HARD TO TIME INDIVIDUAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON THE 07Z RAP COMES THROUGH SE OHIO
NEAR 12Z. SO SOUTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY SINK BACK SOUTH A BIT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SO HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT UP THE OHIO RIVER INTO TRI STATE
AROUND HTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY
RATHER LOW/DRY TO THE SOUTH...SO DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY.
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DYNAMICS.
ANOTHER DIFFICULT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY ACROSS OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR PKB-CKB. DID TRY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THROUGH 14/15Z MORNING.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH WPC`S THINKING OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN OUR CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING TO START THE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. THINK THE NAM IS A BIT FAST
DRYING THINGS OUT...SO STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. USED A
CONSENSUS/ECMWF MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GOING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH GOOD RADIATION AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL PUT A MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN THE LONG TERM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE PERIOD...BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT...WITH A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE U.S...WITH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS MAY INCREASE
SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO 14/15Z TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING KBKW.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
101 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TUESDAY AND STAY CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MOVING BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING
IN FAR NW OHIO WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS SHOWERS ACTIVITY INTO THE
MID 50S WHILE EASTERN AREAS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF RAIN SEEN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ARRIVES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE...TODAYS
SYSTEM IS THE ONLY INCLEMENT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
QUEBEC AND TAKING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT...A SOLID BATCH OF RAIN WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR TOLEDO. WHILE SOME SNOW PACK
LIKELY REMAINS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
WATER HELD UP IN THAT...ALONG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF UNDER AN INCH...ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FROM
PONDING AND ELEVATED CREEKS/STREAMS OR RIVERS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING. TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY RISEN OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE
50S FOR ALL BUT A FEW IN NW PA. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO TOLEDO
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE
INCLUDING BLENDING WITH THE LATEST HRRR FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL START THE EVENING WITH RAIN...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES...RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP
APPEARS TO EXIT BEFORE COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING TAKING PLACE...NOT BUYING THE QPF
PAINTED ACROSS NW PA ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PULLS
ACROSS THE LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...THE WARM UP WILL
BE SLOW...BUT EACH DAY WILL GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE THAN INLAND. ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL BE PART OF ITS
SOUTHERN REACHES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND A
FEW CUMULUS...SHOULD BE SUNNY. NOT YET CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES EACH
DAY OTHERWISE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS SO HIGH ALOFT...IT
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS WITH NIGHTS THAT ARE
COOL BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. EVENTUALLY A
BACK DOOR FRONT MAY TRY AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY TO ARRIVE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S INCREASING TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE TO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING AND
THEN SLOW AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL LIFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AS THE AIR MASS GETS SATURATED. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF
OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FROM AROUND ERIE
PA EAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF
WILLOWICK THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT... PERHAPS 15-20 KNOTS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH SPEED FOR LONG ENOUGH OF A DURATION TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH AN EAST FLOW...THERE IS ALWAYS A
DANGER OF WIND AND WAVES APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT MON APR 11 2016
.DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE ONGOING SLOWLY EASTWARD MIGRATING REX BLOCK WILL SOON BE OUT
OF THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE WEST COAST...AND THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER...WETTER...AND WINDIER SCENARIO FOR THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE REX BLOCK RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND
THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES WILL
SKEDADDLE TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS SUNDAY...OVER THE EAST SIDE AND SISKIYOU
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ARGUES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ANY OREGON WEST SIDE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SHOWERS...NOT THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALL THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO SHORT WAVES EJECTED
FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THAT INTERVAL.
A FEW DAYS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG
IN PLACE. SO...THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A NUMBER OF EJECTED SHORT
WAVES MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTED SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
WET AND WINDY AS THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SAME
GOES FOR THE FOLLOWING FRONTS. EXPECT GENERALLY UNSETTLED COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500
TO 6500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT...WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG
WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO OTHER PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA...BEGINNING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A MAJOR FACTOR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CAUSE FRESHETS ON THE COASTAL
RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000 TO 6000 FEET.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000
FEET...WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE
PASSES...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VERY HEAVY SWELL MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THURSDAY...SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE WILL GENERALLY BY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES. EAST SIDE TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50
RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL END. WE`RE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP ABOUT 10- 15 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY`S HIGHS. NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF MUCH WARMER SPRING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODEL ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS RISE TO 12-13C ON
SATURDAY, THEN JUMP TO 15-16C ON SUNDAY. SO, BY SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM,
EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO BE A BIT FAST. THUS, HAVE FAVORED THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW A WEAKER, SLOWER SHORTWAVE
AND A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER INTO MONDAY. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR CIGS FROM THE SHASTA REGION EAST
TO MODOC COUNTY WILL ALSO LIFT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE OREGON CASCADES EASTWARD FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. MVFR WITH
LOCAL IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 145 PM PDT MON 11 APR 2016...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
WEST SWELL WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS TO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT WAVE WATCH MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASING TO AROUND 22 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN
AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS WELL. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/18/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA
INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF
ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE
SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED
MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1"
OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.
NO LARGE CHANGES MADE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE
MVFR/IFR INTO THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
439 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEEK`S END.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
IS CONCENTRATING RAINFALL ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM S INDIANA
INTO NW PA AT 2030Z. LATEST RAP FGEN FIELDS LINE UP WELL WITH
RADAR RETURNS AND SUGGEST STEADY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA THIS EVENING...WHILE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN PA SOUTH OF
ADVANCING SFC WARM FRONT. THUS...EXPECT A DRY EVENING ACROSS THE
SE COUNTIES AND HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO 100 PCT ACROSS THE NW
COUNTIES.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ENTERING WESTERN PA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED
MY SERN ZONES...OR TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS QPF RANGES FROM AROUND .50" OVER SERN ZONES TO AROUND 1"
OVER THE NW WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RAIN COULD END WITH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN...TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS STEADILY WANING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. LATEST BLENDED MOS POPS SUGGEST A DRY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE WILL BE ABOUT 5-15 DEG
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD BE DRY. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE WESTERN GLAKES TO SERN CANADA
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...TO
A LIGHT EAST TO SE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOR THE MID TO LONG RANGE PERIODS THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. FOUR MEMBERS STILL SHOW A LARGE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLIGHTLY
LESS RETROGRATION THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ...HOWEVER A FEW STILL BRING
IT FAR BACK ENOUGH THAT THE LOWER SUSQ COULD RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST RUNS THERE IS A DOMINATE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER POSITION AND
STRENGTH...ALONG WITH TIMING...VARY. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z RUNS
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST WITH AN ALBUQUERQUE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE VARIES
SOLUTIONS AND THE GENERALLY FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MORE WARMER AND DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION THOUGH HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTH EAST DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITIES. WARMING TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE FLYING AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION...INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR/IFR INTO
THE EVENING...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.
COLD FROPA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180-210 TO 280-310 DEGREES
WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 03-12Z WITH RAIN EXITING THE SE AIRSPACE
BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING
OR MID DAY.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY-FRIDAY
WED-SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLES...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER MEXICO THIS
EVENING...AND SOME HRRR RUNS BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OUT WEST TO 20 ACROSS THE EAST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY. A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND STALLED BOUNDARY NEARBY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STALLED FRONT IS PROGD TO
REMAIN ACROSS S TX ON WED AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA
DUE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS PROGS 2 INCH PWATS
ALONG THE COAST ON WED...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HAS THE
HIGHER PWATS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HPC KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA THROUGH DAY 3 WITH 3 DAY TOTALS
RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND E CWA...BUT FEEL THAT
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS
MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS PROG A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MODELS ALSO FCST MOD SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SVR WX AT
THIS TIME FOR WED AND SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR S TX FOR DAY
3. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST...RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM W TO E WED NIGHT INTO THU. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THU/FRI...THEN A POTENT UPPER LOW IS
PROGD TO DVLP AND MOVE TOWARD S TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT LOW DVLPG...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO AS
HIGH AS SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR POPS AS THERE MAY BE TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 80 69 78 65 / 10 20 60 60 10
VICTORIA 67 80 65 75 60 / 10 20 60 70 10
LAREDO 71 85 69 83 64 / 10 30 60 30 10
ALICE 67 83 69 79 63 / 10 20 60 60 10
ROCKPORT 70 77 69 76 65 / 10 20 60 70 20
COTULLA 66 80 65 79 60 / 10 30 60 50 10
KINGSVILLE 69 83 69 80 64 / 10 20 60 60 10
NAVY CORPUS 71 76 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 60 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCT-BKN CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 025-050 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A DRYLINE IS MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
ON THE DRYLINE WEST OF DFW AROUND 20-21Z. FOR THE WACO AREA...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION VCTS IN THE
KACT TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KACT TAF. FOR THE
METROPLEX...WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21-00Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
AFFECTS THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE TRUE
FRONT ARRIVES. BETWEEN 21-00Z...ITS POSSIBLE THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE BUT THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KACT ABOUT 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. HOWEVER...CIGS
AT KACT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 1 KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY.
JLDUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO
TOWARDS WACO.
HOETH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREA TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DRY LINE AND ALSO A COLD FRONT AND
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS ALONG THE RED
RIVER. OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-20. A SECONDARY BUT MORE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
THIS DOES INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
METROPLEX WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO
TOWARDS WACO.
HOETH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
TAF SITES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS MORNING OVER WACO AND THE METROPLEX. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PUTTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE METROPLEX AROUND 23Z
AND FOR WACO AROUND 2Z.
78.JG
&&
.UPDATE...
QUICK POP UPDATE BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR BUT STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THINK
THAT AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE BUMPED THESE UP A LITTLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD BE FROM HAIL ALTHOUGH A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SURFACE
BASED ACTIVITY.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SLOWLY SPREADING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...JUST WEST OF MIDLAND.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS AND IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN PERTURBED BY AN EASTWARD MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OUR AREA AND PERSIST BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAMILTON. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
SHOULD POSE MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
BASED ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FROM RAP SOUNDINGS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESIDE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...PLACING THE
TRIPLE POINT IN THE PARIS AREA. IT IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST LIFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY PERTURB THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES AND FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
INCREASES BUT IT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS FROM BONHAM TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD THE PALESTINE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED CAP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL
SECONDARY FAVORED AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD
GAINESVILLE AND BOWIE AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THIS WOULD
OCCUR BEFORE ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT. SO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE BIGGER THREAT TODAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY
EXCEEDS 3000 J/KG IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.
CONCERNS FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO MORE DENSELY POPULATED
AREAS DO EXIST TO SOME EXTENT AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE 4KM NAM
HOLD THE DRYLINE BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT
REALLY INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS SO STRONG AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BECOME
SUBSIDENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY SOONER. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT AND ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SO DESPITE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH...TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING A SYSTEM DEEPENING AND AFFECTING THE AREA OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED OFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD POSE
OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT IN A WHILE. STAY TUNED!
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 54 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
WACO 86 52 71 53 70 / 20 10 10 50 30
PARIS 77 54 68 49 67 / 50 30 5 20 10
DENTON 83 50 68 50 69 / 40 20 5 20 10
MCKINNEY 81 53 69 51 69 / 50 30 5 20 10
DALLAS 85 56 70 54 70 / 40 20 5 30 10
TERRELL 81 54 69 52 69 / 40 30 5 30 10
CORSICANA 84 55 69 54 69 / 40 30 10 40 30
TEMPLE 86 55 72 55 69 / 20 10 10 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 85 49 68 51 71 / 20 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$