Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/10/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS STARTED ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX
IN SOUTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. SEVERAL RAPIDLY MOVING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN IMPERIAL...RIVERSIDE...YUMA...AND LA
PAZ COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REFLECTED THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY
WHEN MANY STATIONS WERE IN THE TEENS.
THE HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTIVE
FLAREUPS TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO INDICATES
ONE MORE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INDEED...WE MOVED INTO WARNING OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER WE FINALLY STARTED SEEING SOME OF THE CELLS
STRENGTHEN INTO NEAR OR SEVERE CATEGORY.
LOW PRESSURE LOBE THAT HAS BROUGHT US WEATHER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE PACIFIC CLOSED LOW. THIS LOW
WILL SERVE AS ROUND TWO FOR THE REGION AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING AND ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL AND STILL COOLER
AIR...DROPPING THE HIGH TEMPS AS LOW AS THE 60S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THAT LOW PASSES
ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND IT AS IT
MOVES OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES. THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SYSTEM LATER IN
THE WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR BY THEN.
SUFFICE TO SAY WE HAVE ENTERED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL BE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST FINALLY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF AZ LAST EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS AT 1 AM LOCATED BETWEEN PHOENIX AND TUCSON. THIS WAS BEST
SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THE TIME. AND...COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS THE WALL OF MODERATELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.00 TO 1.30 INCHES. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE PHOENIX AREA JUMPED FROM 21 DEG F AT 5 PM TO AROUND 46 DEG AT
9 PM...WITH RAIN STARTING 11 PM. THE 0.02 MEASUREMENT AT SKY HARBOR
AIRPORT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT FINALLY BROKE THE 66 DAY DRY STREAK...
WITH ANOTHER 0.17 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. IN FACT LOTS OF RAIN FELL
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA RANGING FROM 0.01 TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES THROUGH
2 AM. THERE WERE MANY REPORTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES.
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL SLIGHTLY OVER ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RECENT GFS MODELED SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...COMPARED WITH THOSE FROM
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...DEFINITELY FCST MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...MORE C.A.P.E. APPEARS IN THE AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL END OVER
ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS AZ ON SUNDAY. MODERATELY STRONG 500/300 MB
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THEN SPREAD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN CONSIDERING LOTS OF
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FROM FRIDAYS PRECIP EVENT. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
YET ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY...TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND AZ AS
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THIS IS A COLDER STORM...AND MORE UNSTABLE...
THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END IN MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...EXCEPT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS PERIOD...PRODUCING WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS
POTENTIALLY FALLING TO NEAR 5500 FEET...IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA
POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. THE CAVEAT IS TIMING. RECENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE SCRAMBLED...INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
SYSTEM TIMING. THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS RANGING 8-10KFT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 6000 FEET WITH ANY STRONGER
RAIN SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND HEADINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO BREEZY W-SW HEADINGS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON AND
OFF INTO THE DAY WARRANTING AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON WHAT TIME DURING THE DAY THUNDER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
TERMINALS...SO WILL LEAVE TS MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WITH A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ EXPECT
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-
STORMS WITH FREQUENT CIGS RANGING FROM 8 TO 15K FT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPORARILY LOWERING TO 5 TO 7K FT DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS. BREEZY AND MOSTLY SW-W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 25
KTS AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z
AND COULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 01 TO 02Z AFTER WHICH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY SUBSIDE. TONIGHT EXPECT
SKIES TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
EASTERLY IN THE PHX AREA WHILE THE WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH SHOULD
FAVOR THE WEST AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY AND DECREASE TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK BECOMING FAIR TO GOOD FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN BY FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 7 PM.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WATERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH BAND ACROSS SRN PINAL COUNTY...THE ERN PORTION OF THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM INTO ERN PIMA COUNTY...AND SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING WAS ALSO DETECTED MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT WRN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SRN PIMA
COUNTY. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALES SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON HAVE RECORDED AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES WERE THE RULE THIS EVENING WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED
COOLING CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP AREA. 08/00Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 0.69 INCH INCREASED NEARLY 0.20 INCH VERSUS 12 HOURS AGO.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 8 PM MST RANGED FROM THE 30S-
LOWER 40S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 25-40 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS
THIS TIME WED EVENING.
HAVE NOTED THAT THE 08/00Z NAM DEPICTED THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE REST OF TONIGHT TO GENERALLY OCCUR
NORTH-TO-EAST OF TUCSON. THE PAST 2-3 RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 08/02Z SOLUTION YIELDED A SIMILAR DEPICTION. HOWEVER...BASED ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THESE SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THE NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM A CYCLONIC
CENTER JUST WEST OF SRN CALIF SEWD INTO WRN SONORA AS PER THE 08/00Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS...THE DEEP SLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF TRAINING CELLS FURTHER WWD VERSUS THESE
NWP SOLUTIONS.
THUS...WILL MAKE SOME UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FROM TUCSON WWD THE
REST OF TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE VICINITY NOGALES NWWD TO NEAR ORGAN PIPE. THE UPSHOT FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AREA-WIDE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/06Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR THE REST OF TONIGHT
MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST OF KTUS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED -TSRA AREA-WIDE FRIDAY.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TUS
TERMINAL FRIDAY EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 10K-15K FT MSL. SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /215 PM MST/...INCREASING SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A BIT CONVECTIVE FRIDAY...A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS
AROUND .1 TO .3 OF AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND .6 TO 1 INCH IN MOUNTAINS.
LOTS OF OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE...SO LOCALLY HEAVIER POSSIBLE ON
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SLOPES.
AFTER A BREAK SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING SOLID FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A COOLER SYSTEM...THIS ONE MIGHT SEE AN FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000
FEET.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD BET. AFTER THAT...IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE SETS UP
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT COULD ALLOW ANOTHER SYSTEM TO UNDERCUT
LATE NEXT WEEK...OR IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW THAT
EMPHASIZES PLENTY OF WIND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
638 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PUSH INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RENEWED RAIN CHANCES
TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING INLAND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY, YET ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTERACTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE TOO SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY
BAY REGION AND THEN TRACK INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY, YET
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO
0.50" UNDER HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH THAT SAID, SOME
LOCATIONS MAY ONLY RECEIVE TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AT ALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO SLOWLY REBOUND LATE IN THE WORKWEEK AND APPROACH OR
EXCEED SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:38 PM PDT SATURDAY...A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW 300 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERY WX TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
CONSOLIDATES SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST 4 AM TO 8
AM SUNDAY (7 AM TO 8 AM BEING THE LAST HOURLY OUTPUT OF THE LAST
MODEL RUN).
KHAF AND KSTS REPORT OFF AND ON IFR CIGS IN RECENT HOURS; ELSEWHERE
IT`S BEEN VFR/MVFR AREA-WIDE. CLOUD LAYERS AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED NIGHT-TIME
COOLING THUS HELPING TO EXTEND VFR/MVFR INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE AIR MASS BEING AT OR NEAR SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
SINCE WEAK COOLING IS FORECAST AT 925 MB AND 850 MB LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY IFR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. PATCHY IFR NEARBY IS A POSSIBLITY
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR. HOWEVER PATCHY IFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
242 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE GREATER BAY
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PER THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS. QPF TOTALS STILL LOOK
LIGHT AND GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS NOT ALL AREAS WILL
SEE MUCH TOTAL RAINFALL. SO FAR THE CLOSEST LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY WITH SOME ACTIVITY STARTING TO FIRE IN
THE SIERRA AS WELL...MEANWHILE DOWN IN THE DESERTS OF CA AND AZ
QUITE A LIGHTNING SHOW IS UNDERWAY AS A RESULT OF THE SAME UPPER
LOW. NEXT LOW IS OFFSHORE AND WILL APPROACH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AS THIS OCCURS MODELS WANT TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND KEEP ISOLATED T-STORM THREAT GOING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (SANTA CLARA TO MONTEREY).
NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT SATURDAY BUT JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO HAMPER OUTDOOR PLANS AND JUSTIFY KEEPING AN UMBRELLA HANDY.
SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. THEN ON SUNDAY
EXPECT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUNSHINE BREAKS THAT WILL
LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
THE HILLS.
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AS NEXT UPPER LOW LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL STAY OFFSHORE BEFORE MAKING A BEELINE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. END RESULT SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONABLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDS. THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE EURO A
LITTLE SLOWER. ECMWF DID BACK OFF SLIGHTLY WITH INTENSITY ON
LATEST 12Z RUN AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MID-RANGE FORECAST WITH INTEREST
FOR ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT FRIDAY... A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL MERGE AND DRIVE
RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. GENERALLY INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
CEILINGS ASCEND AND DESCEND WITH CONVECTION WITHIN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. POCKETS AND HZ/BR AND VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO THE 5-6SM
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING RAIN SHOWERS. STRONGER EMBEDDED STORM
CELLS IE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY UNTIL SATURDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO... -SHRA THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR. WINDS GENERALLY
ONSHORE UP TO 12KT THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INTERMITTENT VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -SHRA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:23 PM PDT FRIDAY...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE OFF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A GENTLE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
721 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED EARLY
EVENING WINDS AND FIRE WX GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. NEARER TO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS NOW PICKING UP SOME RETURNS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED PRECIP
STARTING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY DAYBREAK BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THIS WON`T OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT NOON OR SO.
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DELAYED ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL NOON AND
BEYOND WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SO TIMING LOOKS
TO BE THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH (CORTEZ...DURANGO...PAGOSA
SPRINGS) SEEING PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MONTROSE...MOAB...GRAND
JUNCTION...I-70 CORRIDOR) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FROM MIDAFTERNOON
ONWARDS WHILE NORTHERN VALLEYS (VERNAL...RANGELY...CRAIG...STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES IN THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIALIZE WITH
CURRENT PRECIP AND WILL MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY REMAINS AS DOES SOME CAPE SO SOME ISOLD
TSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE DAY MOVES ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FEET OR SO...ABOVE THAT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT.
SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH
MORE SPORADIC AND SPOTTY IN NATURE. MODELS DO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED PRECIP BUT EVEN SO...PLENTY OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
MODELS ARE PAINTING A DREARY WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE CWA JUST ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. BETWEEN THESE
DISTURBANCES THE SUN MAY BREAK OUT FROM TIME TO TIME ONLY TO
RETURN TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. MONDAY MORNING BRINGS A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING ROUND THREE OF PRECIP MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THAT...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOD COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
SO THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LUCKILY
THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY WARM SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EXPECT KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY TO BE AFFECTED
FIRST WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BEFORE 00Z. TIMING HAS YET AGAIN
SLOWED DOWN A BIT SO NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS TO REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ILS BREAK POINTS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
FOR MOST TAF SITES BY 06Z TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WX...LOW CIGS AND
VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD AFTN TSRA WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. NEARER TO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS NOW PICKING UP SOME RETURNS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED PRECIP
STARTING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY DAYBREAK BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THIS WON`T OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT NOON OR SO.
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLN. WITH THAT IN
MIND...DELAYED ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL NOON AND
BEYOND WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SO TIMING LOOKS
TO BE THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH (CORTEZ...DURANGO...PAGOSA
SPRINGS) SEEING PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM DAYBREAK ONWARDS.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MONTROSE...MOAB...GRAND
JUNCTION...I-70 CORRIDOR) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FROM MIDAFTERNOON
ONWARDS WHILE NORTHERN VALLEYS (VERNAL...RANGELY...CRAIG...STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS) WILL SEE BEST CHANCES IN THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIALIZE WITH
CURRENT PRECIP AND WILL MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY REMAINS AS DOES SOME CAPE SO SOME ISOLD
TSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE DAY MOVES ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FEET OR SO...ABOVE THAT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT.
SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH
MORE SPORADIC AND SPOTTY IN NATURE. MODELS DO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 WITH A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED PRECIP BUT EVEN SO...PLENTY OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
MODELS ARE PAINTING A DREARY WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE CWA JUST ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO. BETWEEN THESE
DISTURBANCES THE SUN MAY BREAK OUT FROM TIME TO TIME ONLY TO
RETURN TO MORE CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING...LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOKS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. MONDAY MORNING BRINGS A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
UNTIL ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS THE SAME TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING ROUND THREE OF PRECIP MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER THAT...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOD COLD FRONT LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
SO THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LUCKILY
THESE SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY WARM SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ONSET OF PRECIP HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FROM 18Z ONWARDS.
RAIN AND SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS. EXPECT
KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY TO BE AFFECTED FIRST WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS. BY 00Z...INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-70
CORRIDOR. NOT SOLD ON MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REACHED HOWEVER SO
WILL KEEP MID LEVEL CIGS IN FORECAST AND ALSO VCSH FOR TAFS. LATER
SHIFTS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ARRIVAL AND HOW LOW CIGS
WILL BE AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN. ILS BREAK POINTS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED FOR MOST TAF SITES. UNSETTLED WX...LOW CIGS AND VIS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD AFTN TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1126 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
JUST UPDATED THE SKY COVER GRID TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD BAND
THAT HAS QUICKLY FORMED OVER DENVER AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE METRO AREA. CLOUD DECK NOW APPARENT ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT ONLY THE RAP MDL HAD ANY CLUE THAT THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS AROUND. APPEARS THIS SUDDEN FORMATION OF CLOUD IS A COUPLE OF
FACTORS...NAMELY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
DEFORMATION ALOFT AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW
THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. HENCE
THE 8000-9000 FT AGL BKN AND OVC CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
HAS REACHED UP INTO THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS BUT SKIES
REMAIN ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY UP THERE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE RAP SHOWS DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
MIXING DOWNWARD AND EVENTUALLY ERODING THIS BAND OF LOWER CLOUD
COVER...SOMETIME AROUND 08Z-09Z. BUT THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD WILL
REMAIN. WILL PLAY THAT WAS FOR NOW. DON`T SEE ANY PRECIP WITH ANY
OF THIS CLOUD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
ASIDE FM SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AS LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE. THE MIXED CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AS
WELL...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SOME INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS.
ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER GREAT BASIN WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DIMINISHES. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER US THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM HE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
DECREASE AND DIMINISH SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AS WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY SPREAD OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL
AS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING PATTERN IN
PLACE AND WARM ADVECTION.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TRANSPORTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SWING DOWN THAT LATE
AFTERNOON TO CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE
EVEN MORE....REMAIN UPSLOPE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP MAY
TURNOVER INTO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING UNSTABLE. MODELS HAVE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 7500 FT OR ABOVE...SO ONLY EXPECTING RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES FROM THE UPSLOPE STORM. THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE LESS.
A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH HELPING TO END THE
PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS...AND WILL BE IN THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UP THERE ABOVE THE STABLE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY...WITH MOUNTAINS SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S OR 70S FOR THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE PACIFIC UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR OREGON THEN DEEPEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...PUTTING THE STATE IN WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
WARM CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU APR 7 2016
UPDATED KDEN AND KAPA TERMINAL FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
8000-9000 FT AGL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK THAT HAS QUICKLY FORMED
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS AC DECK AND CIGS PROBABLY AT
THEIR LOWEST AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...I WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE THIS CLOUD BAND GRADUALLY ERODE AND LIFT AS DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALSO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF
BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COOL MID-APRIL MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. METRO
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. THIS
IS SOME 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ENJOY
THE COOLER WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN. WE WILL WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
WITH AFTN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMS. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN
ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS
AND HARBORS...AND ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES
OF WIND EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
USHERING IN A COOLER BUT DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35% RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL JUST A BIT SHY OF 15 MPH...
ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 73 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 74 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 62 73 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS
AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER
SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PREP DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016/
UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROD ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OFF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY
THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR FRIDAY EVERYONE!
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY AND
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND HARBORS...AND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES OF WIND
EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 73 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 61 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 74 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 62 73 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1139 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH THE
STATE OF FLORIDA RESIDING WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED A DOMINANT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...AND
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROP ABOVE A DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 875MB. A BIT HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE
ABOVE 400MB RESULTING IN SOME BENIGN SCT HIGH LEVEL PASSING
CLOUDS.
WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH DROPPING DOWN
CURRENTLY THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. INLAND SPOTS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BEACHES STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL SHELF WATERS. DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MAIN EAST COAST TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL HELP PROPEL THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL COMPLETE A DRY PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
INTRUSION OFF A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE MARINE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME OF THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BY
THE TIME THE SUN RISES SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE...50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWN TOWARD
FORT MYERS.
A PLEASANT SATURDAY FOR APRIL IN STORE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WILL BE RUNNING 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS...ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S
NORTH...MID 70S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR FRIDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY FOR A
SHORT TIME AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY AND
QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND HARBORS...AND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED EASTERLY SURGES OF WIND
EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 58 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 61 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 83 56 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 59 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 51 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 78 62 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FREEZE MAY OCCUR. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS TIGHT AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DIMINISHED MIXING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN WITH STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT AND
HIGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL END BY AROUND 13Z AS SHOWN
BY LATEST SPC HRRR. MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING W TO NW AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON THE GFS LAMP EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT. RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
HELPED INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT NOTING THE INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD WHICH
MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY BECAUSE OF FURTHER DRYING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
350 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FREEZE MAY OCCUR. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. USED THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING.
OTHERWISE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS TIGHT AND IT WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DIMINISHED MIXING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
THE COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN WITH STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT AND
HIGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT INTENSITY OF
PRECIP...REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VSBYS NOT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BASES WELL ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SC
MIDLANDS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN AL. LATEST SFC HRRR SHOWING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 11Z.
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT CAE/CUB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND NW 5-10 KTS AT OGB/AGS/DNL BUT DIMINISHING BEFORE
DAWN. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON THE GFS LAMP EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER BECAUSE OF INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT. RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
HELPED INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT NOTING THE INCREASED THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD WHICH
MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY BECAUSE OF FURTHER DRYING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
130 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RETURN
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 OF
AN INCH.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
INCREASING CLOUD DECK AND WINDS REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SHIFT TO THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
15-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 60S. MOSTLY COOL SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND INTENSIFIES AND CLOSES
OFF JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OFFSET SOME OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
FREEZING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THAT MAY LIMIT FROST AND FREEZE
OPPORTUNITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD
EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
MON/TUE BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT AND QUICKLY
MOVING IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH STRONGER SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN RETURN MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DUE TO
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT INTENSITY OF
PRECIP...REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VSBYS NOT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH BASES WELL ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
LATEST RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SC
MIDLANDS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN AL. LATEST SFC HRRR SHOWING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AROUND 11Z.
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT CAE/CUB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND NW 5-10 KTS AT OGB/AGS/DNL BUT DIMINISHING BEFORE
DAWN. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
425 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
425 PM CDT
A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE BUT
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN QUICKLY
DEPART EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES IN THE
NEARSHORE AS WELL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO ISSUE
A GALE WATCH. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE GUSTS/SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT 30 KT
GUSTS/PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. EXPANSIVE HIGH WILL THEN SET UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
404 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
400 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE:
- UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. - SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
ACTUALLY START TO SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVELY
COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH OFF THE CHARTS COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. THIS AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
MID MINUS TEENS CELSIUS OVER THE LAKE WILL KEEP A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE BEFORE BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES BY MID
DAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED INTO
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY AND POINTS EAST...SO HAVE CARRIED POPS IN MID
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN TAPER THEM LATE
MORNING AS SETUP BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAND...BUT IF IT CLIPS
PORTER BEFORE WEAKENING...PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTS/MAYBE A
HALF INCH OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON COLDER SURFACES.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF STRONG
APRIL SUNSHINE BUT DON`T LET THAT FOOL YOU. THE INCREDIBLY COLD
850/925 MB TEMPS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG APRIL SUN MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPARTURE OF SURFACE HIGH TO EAST AND
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE
FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE EVENING WILL
START OUT WITH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MIDLEVEL ECHOES/VIRGA INITIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE EVENING WESTERN CWA FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. IF IT DOES...PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET MIX DUE TO WETBULBING EFFECTS. AS SATURATION AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BAND OF PRECIP COULD EXTEND TO I-80
OR A BIT SOUTH. WET BULB AFFECTS AND LINGERING COLDER AIR BELOW
QUICKER WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB LEVEL WILL KEEP P-TYPE CONCERNS
GOING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EVOLUTION...BUT COULD FORSEE
SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF A FEW TENTHS AND EVEN A VERY LIGHT
ICY GLAZE ON COLDER SURFACES WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN.
SURFACE WARMING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE RAIN AS P-TYPE BY
7AM OR 8AM SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 50S BY MID DA/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO FOCUS HIGHEST POP/SHOWER COVERAGE
NORTHERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF CWA SUNDAY MORNING. THEN IN
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND
STRONGER ATTENDANDT MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL RAMP
UP SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FRONT
COULD SLOW SOME AS IT PRESSES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THIS ON THE GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA ON MONDAYWITH DRIER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY-MID APRIL. AFTER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE`LL
FINALLY BREAK INTO MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE WARMTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THOUGH WITH ONSHORE STILL APPEARING PROBABLE
FOR THE LAKESHORE KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
304 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
304 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...IS
ANTICIPATED THIS MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND WAS THE MAIN ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT.
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ARE COLD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INCLUDING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C (LOWEST FEW PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE BY 4 PM LIKELY BEING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IT WILL PROMOTE THE SOUTHWARD EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE A GOOD AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ON THE RAP MODEL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF 50-80
J/KG AND SUGGEST SOME STRONGER RATES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING A SCATTERING OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY/RATES. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MAY DISSIPATE AS IT
WORKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...BUT ALL-IN-ALL HAVE RAISED POPS
AND INDICATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 830 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN WINDS ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. TOGETHER WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 20S BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE VALUES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER NAMELY
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DO EXPECT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID DAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER COVERAGE IS BEING AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DROP OFF IN NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN
NORTHEAST/FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST...KEYING ON ANOTHER STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER MN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE IN SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE TRICKY AND DRIVEN BY INTENSITY WITH
SNOW AND EVEN GRAUPEL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
SNOW. WITH LIMITED SHOWER RESIDENCE TIME...VARYING INTENSITY...AND
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A SLUSHY DUSTING TO
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WILL FAVOR RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL
WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN UNTIL SNOW MAY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
BY THIS EVENING WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES. FINALLY...HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
BEHIND THE SECOND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THIS EVENING THERE LOOKS
TO BE AN APPROXIMATELY TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS AND
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS.
RC/MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE CONCERNS WITH THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ARE SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIKELY PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING MID-EVENING. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT TO
AROUND DUE NORTH...POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF NORTH...DURING THOSE MID-
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ASSISTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER...BUT MOST SHOWERS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A TRACE WITH THIS AT
MOST...HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS TYPE OF COLD FRONT OFTEN SHIFTS THE WIND DUE NORTH
OR JUST A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT ORD AND MDW...SO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE TAF. SNOW LOOKS TO BE ROOTED RIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MEDIUM AND IN DURATION
IS MEDIUM-HIGH FOR A TWO TO MAYBE THREE HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPORARY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FAVORED WITH THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION IS LOW...BUT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ON GRASSY SURFACES IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AT RFD A DUSTING WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MAX
POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE SOME BUT AT THE HIGH END BE IN EXCESS OF 9 KT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Updated the forecast to increase chances of showers today and
added slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon ne of a
bloomington to Charleston/Mattoon to Lawrenceville line. Also
lower highs a few degrees over ne CWA with mid 40s there, and
increase cloud cover today. Not very spring like today with mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain showers and
even some graupel/sleet reports along and ne of I-74 this morning
at Altona and Normal. Windy with NW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of
30 to 40 mph. These stronger wind gusts still supported by bufkit
momentum transfer by the models despite the widespread low clouds.
Very large/strong upper level trof over Ontario, Greak Lakes
region and ohio river valley will continue to affect IL today.
Another embedded short wave near the MN/IA border to dive
southeast across central IL this afternoon and early evening and
keep isolated to scattered showers going over most of CWA with
highest pops ne of a Galesburg to Lincoln to Olney line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
Isolated to scattered rain showers will occur this afternoon over
central IL along with a chance of GS (small graupel) along I-74
at BMI and CMI into mid afternoon. Already had recent reports of
this graupel/sleet smaller than peas in Bloomington/Normal area.
One short wave with its scattered showers moving east of I-55
while a 2nd short wave in eastern IA and nw IL already has its
scattered rain showers spreading se toward the IL river early this
afternoon. These showers will spread se over rest of central IL
this afternoon and could even affect as far sw as SPI, though
coverage more isolated sw at SPI. 1008 mb surface low pressure
over sw lower MI has tight pressure gradient over IL today and wnw
winds 15-23 kts and gusts of 25-33 kts expected rest of today.
Wind gusts of 17-23 kts still linger this evening after sunset
before diminishing overnight. Broken to overcast clouds of 2.5-5k
ft to occur this afternoon and early evening, and scatter out from
nw to se between 02-05Z. Lighter winds and fair skies expected on
Saturday morning as 1033 mb Canadian high pressure over
Sasketchewan settles over central IL by 18Z Sat and weakens to
1027 mb.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
1031 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
1030 AM CDT
HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID DAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER COVERAGE IS BEING AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DROP OFF IN NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN
NORTHEAST/FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST...KEYING ON ANOTHER STRONG MIDLEVEL WAVE
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER MN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING THAT
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO MID TO HIGH
CHANCE RANGE IN SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE TRICKY AND DRIVEN BY INTENSITY WITH
SNOW AND EVEN GRAUPEL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY
SNOW. WITH LIMITED SHOWER RESIDENCE TIME...VARYING INTENSITY...AND
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A SLUSHY DUSTING TO
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WILL FAVOR RAIN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL
WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN UNTIL SNOW MAY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
BY THIS EVENING WHEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES. FINALLY...HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
BEHIND THE SECOND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THIS EVENING THERE LOOKS
TO BE AN APPROXIMATELY TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO EVEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS AND
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS.
RC/MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
646 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WITH IT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS WHERE PRECIP INTENSITY
IS HIGHER. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 2SM OR LESS WITH ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 16Z-17Z. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS TRENDS EMERGE ITS POSSIBLE ANOTHER TEMPO FOR PRECIP
WILL BE NEEDED...PERHAPS IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR DURATION AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THIS SNOW
MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AT RFD AND MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MENTION
THERE WITH LATER UPDATES. VISIBILITY UNDER 1SM IS LIKELY BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OVERALL DURATION AS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY. SHORTENED TEMPO TO JUST 2 HRS
BUT FURTHER REFINEMENT SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
WESTERLY WINDS APPEAR TO STAY 10KTS OR LESS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE MID MORNING BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS NOW LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS INTO THE 30KT RANGE STILL LOOK ON TRACK...AS
WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH
THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND MOST LIKELY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
403 AM...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TOLEDO THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN.
A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AND LIKELY TO LOW END
GALES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW END GALES IS THEN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THE GALES WILL LIKELY END
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
MVFR cigs have already reached PIA and BMI, with at least a few
hours of MVFR clouds expected to affect all the TAF sites earlier
this morning, as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing the
threat for some light rain. Upstream observations and forecast
soundings suggest cig bases around 1500 feet will gradually lift
to VFR later this morning as the cold front sweeps across the TAF
sites by 15z. Surface winds ahead of the boundary are already
westerly, and will shift more northwest in the wake of the cold
front. We look for wind speeds to increase into the 20 to 25 kt
range with gusts up to 33 kts at times through the mid afternoon
hours before a diminishing trend sets in after 01z. Skies will
clear out this evening, with winds finally diminishing below 10kt
after 06z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
345 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DUG SOUTH INTO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A LARGE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A VERY COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...PER -33 C AT THE KINL 0Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING....ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FIRST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE ARE MARGINAL AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX (ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH THE MIX) WITH THIS
WAVE INITIALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THESE ECHOES
MOVE FARTHER EAST THEY WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY. KDLL
(WISCONSIN DELLS) HAS REPORTED 1SM VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW...AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION TO
OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST IN A CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID 20S.
AS THE COLD POCKET ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
KICK TO THEM. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED MENTION.
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OR BRIEF STICKING SNOW THOUGH
ROADS AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO PREVENT ROAD ISSUES. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW AS THE
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AREAS
FAVORED LOOK TO BE THE CHICAGO METRO AREA EASTWARD...AND IF THESE
LAST IN ANY ONE SPOT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THINGS WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE
A FAVORABLE FETCH AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS 850-700 RH DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DECENT
OMEGA IN NW INDIANA TO KEEP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GOING
AND SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY STIFF AND THUS SOME SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES AS WELL.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SLEET
BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND THE WARM FRONT BLASTS ON
THROUGH. GOOD LAPSE RATES ALOFT DURING THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING
LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK FOR AREAS SOUTH IN THE
MORNING...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE FOR A WET
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LIQUID FORM.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO MONDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ONSHORE
FLOW MAINTAINING A COOLER BY THE LAKE REGIME. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP
THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A DEEPER LOW ORGANIZES IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
1226 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING...AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. THE PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF SNOW AND IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 2SM
OR LESS. THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING
COVERAGE/TIMING SO WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY MENTION FOR NOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND MAY ONLY LAST FOR A SHORT
PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT BACK NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AS SPEEDS AND GUSTS
INCREASE. GUSTS TO 30KTS OR A BIT HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CMS
&&
.MARINE...
347 PM CDT
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE LAKE FOR
A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE...FIRST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME GALES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE ON
SUNDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
An initial wave of showers early this morning will gradually shift
eastward toward Indiana this morning, as a surface trough departs.
We can not rule out some intermittent snow showers north of I-74
early this morning, but based on forecast soundings, the primary
precip type should remain liquid.
Previous model output indicated dry conditions behind the trough,
however, the latest HRRR and RAP updates are now indicating a
redevelopment of isolated showers this afternoon progressing from NW
to SE into our counties. The additional showers appear to be tied to
a shortwave evident on the water vapor satellite images over
northern MN. After collaboration with surrounding offices, we added
slight chances of showers in most of our counties. Very little QPF
is expected, with spotty areas actually seeing measurable rain of
0.01".
Bufkit analysis of mixing heights and momentum transfer show that
windy conditions will develop today. Sustained NW winds look to
climb to 20-30 mph by late morning, with gusts near 40 mph through
late afternoon.
High temps will be limited by the cold air advection pattern in
place today, as 850mb temps drop into the -5C to -9C range by
00z/7pm. Any heating from sunshine that does develop should cause
low level cumulus to quickly re-develop, along with spotty showers.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 40s north of I-74,
with upper 40s to around 50 in the rest of our forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2016
A couple of days remain in the northwesterly flow regime
over the Midwest. Chilly temps on the way tonight, behind a
shortwave that may bring some scattered showers late this evening.
Eroding clouds and a cold punch in the midlevels will drop overnight
lows into the 20s. Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight
into tomorrow morning. High pressure ridge axis slips over Central
Illinois tomorrow during the day as winds shift from northerly in
the morning...to southerly in the afternoon. These southerly winds
usher in a brief pd of WAA for the region. Temperatures warm for Sat
night and by Sunday, highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s are
expected...but mitigated somewhat by the next round of precip.
Concerned for the genesis of this system as it is in the wake of an
exiting upper level trof...in the midst of a pattern shift...mainly
zonal flow...but another wave is digging in over the Northern
Plains. The ECMWF has started delaying the onset of precip...even if
the GFS and NAM are maintaining. Sunday precip may end up delaying
onset if the trend continues. Precip continues through Monday
morning, clearing throughout the day as the wave over the northern
Plains phases with another shortwave moving out of the SW, briefly
setting up weaker northwesterly flow. ECMWF and GFS showing a few
subtle differences after the pattern shift. For now, the forecast
remains dry through the end of the week, with temps slightly warmer
than climo...with a vigorous wave amplifying the trof over the SW
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2016
VFR cigs are expected to lower to MVFR for a time Friday
morning as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing
the threat for some light rain. The MVFR cigs are then
expected to lift to VFR during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest cig bases will range lower to between
1500-2500 feet as the cold front sweeps across the TAF
sites in the 10z-15z time Friday. Surface winds ahead
of the boundary may actually back into a southwest
direction briefly in the early morning hours before
winds turn more into west and then northwest with the
FROPA tomorrow morning. We look for wind speeds to
increase after frontal passage tomorrow morning with
sustained speeds in the 20 to 25 kt range with gusts
up to 32 kts at times through the mid afternoon hours
before a diminishing trend sets in after 00z.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 08/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AROUND
081900Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY CENTER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE...SO WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 020-040 EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 280-300 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO VEER A BIT AFTER DARK MORE TOWARDS
300-320 DEGREES...BUT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS STILL PROBABLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS FLIPPING TO SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROVIDES AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. ANOTHER MISERABLE APRIL
DAY IN PROGRESS WITH 19Z TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
PLENTY TO FOCUS ON FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
LINGERING THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GRAUPEL
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LIKEWISE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS WELL. ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 22-23Z AS THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP ALL BEING
REPORTED. HRRR AND WRF PIVOT THIS AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND AS 850MB TEMPS CRASH...EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.
MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PIVOT
SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUM FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPS...OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXPECTATION FOR A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S. AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES AND WILL RUN FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT AND PRECIP CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LOOSENS ITS GRIP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THESE FEATURES OFF THE EAST COAST
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL FINALLY ENABLE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS TO FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND ENABLE RIDGING ALOFT TO EXPAND INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS CENTRAL INDIANA
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. PLENTY OF
COLD AIR REMAINS AT 850MB AND SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING A CU
FIELD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
DESPITE THE CU...DO ANTICIPATE THE SUN WILL MAKE MORE OF ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN SATURDAY AND WILL ROLL WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING.
RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL BE INTRODUCING A
FREEZE WATCH EAST OF A LAFAYETTE-BEDFORD LINE AND STARTING IT BY
LATE EVENING SATURDAY. RUN THE FREEZE WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES
QUICKER FROM THE WEST AS TEMPS WARM IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PREDAWN SUNDAY WILL CLIP
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AND MAY ENABLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS WARM SUFFICIENTLY. AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY MORNING SUNDAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
ENABLES A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO RAIN ON MONDAY AS OP GFS LOOKS
TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDING PRECIP.
TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EVEN LOWER 60S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER METMOS WAS
PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE OP GFS IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AROUND
081900Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY CENTER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE...SO WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS 020-040 EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENT SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM 280-300 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS MAY TEND TO VEER A BIT AFTER DARK MORE TOWARDS
300-320 DEGREES...BUT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS STILL PROBABLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-029>031-036>042-045>049-053>057-062>065-070>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST HAS OCCURRED.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO ILLINOIS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA IS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.
TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW SQUALL
TOOL INDICATES INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVECT AND DEVELOP
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. THE GROUND MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A HUE
OF WHITE TO IT UNDER THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN IS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NW FLOW WAS USHERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AND THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
CONTINUED H5 NW FLOW WILL BRING WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. ONE WAVE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. H85 FLOW HAS NEAR 40 KTS FOR THE
AREA. WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA. SPECTRAL
MODELS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFR DATA...THIS MAY BE TOO LOW. THINK
THAT IF WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT THAN FORECAST WE COULD REACH
CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY BASED ON
TRENDS IF ONE IS NEEDED. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY CREW THAT
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S CWA WIDE AND WILL
LEAD TO FREEZE ISSUES. AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE WHOLE CWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DUE TO
THE TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS.
THE WARNING GOES FROM 06Z SAT TO 14Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF SHARP DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SUNDAY WARM UP...A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. APRIL SUNSHINE AND AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY
IN THE TEENS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSER TO THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW...INITIALLY STRONGER ALOFT...SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE ON A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WIND FOCUSES
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY NE LATE WITH A
SUGGESTION OF WEAKER SUPPORT IN THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE THUS KEPT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS LATE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THERE AS WELL. DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS MAY LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING AFTER AN
INITIALLY DIP IN THE EVENING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON S-SW WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED
MAINLY ON THE FRONT...THESE HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL. WHILE LACKING IN
THE GFS...THE NAM DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT MUCAPES DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
A MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR THEN FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS RETURN
TO THE 40S AND 50S MON AND TUE...THEN 50S FOR WED. MONDAY NIGHT/S
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN THE PROGGED -4 TO -8 RANGE...AND MAY AGAIN
NEED TO HOIST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WHERE HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S WITH LOWS HELD IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/09 PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/09. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z
TAFS...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. AFT 00Z/09 VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CEILINGS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNRESTRICTED
CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNRESTRICTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE. GOOD
AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST HAS OCCURRED.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO ILLINOIS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IN MINNESOTA IS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.
TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW SQUALL
TOOL INDICATES INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADVECT AND DEVELOP
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. THE GROUND MAY BRIEFLY HAVE A HUE
OF WHITE TO IT UNDER THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN IS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NW FLOW WAS USHERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AND THE FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF MARCH WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES FOR
VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
CONTINUED H5 NW FLOW WILL BRING WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. ONE WAVE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. H85 FLOW HAS NEAR 40 KTS FOR THE
AREA. WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA. SPECTRAL
MODELS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED RANGE. LOOKING AT BUFR DATA...THIS MAY BE TOO LOW. THINK
THAT IF WE GET MORE SUNLIGHT THAN FORECAST WE COULD REACH
CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
WITH A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY BASED ON
TRENDS IF ONE IS NEEDED. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY CREW THAT
THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S CWA WIDE AND WILL
LEAD TO FREEZE ISSUES. AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE WHOLE CWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DUE TO
THE TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS.
THE WARNING GOES FROM 06Z SAT TO 14Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF SHARP DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF SUNDAY WARM UP...A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. APRIL SUNSHINE AND AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY
IN THE TEENS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSER TO THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER
50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW...INITIALLY STRONGER ALOFT...SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE ON A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WIND FOCUSES
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY NE LATE WITH A
SUGGESTION OF WEAKER SUPPORT IN THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE THUS KEPT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS LATE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER THERE AS WELL. DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS MAY LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MORNING AFTER AN
INITIALLY DIP IN THE EVENING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON S-SW WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY KEPT HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. IF
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED
MAINLY ON THE FRONT...THESE HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL. WHILE LACKING IN
THE GFS...THE NAM DEVELOPS SUFFICIENT MUCAPES DURING THE DAY TO KEEP
A MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR THEN FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS RETURN
TO THE 40S AND 50S MON AND TUE...THEN 50S FOR WED. MONDAY NIGHT/S
LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN THE PROGGED -4 TO -8 RANGE...AND MAY AGAIN
NEED TO HOIST FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. AN ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WHERE HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S WITH LOWS HELD IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 AND EVEN 40 KTS. MOST OF THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH...SO SITES WITHOUT N/S RUNWAYS WILL LIKELY FACE CROSSWINDS
THAT COULD MAKE OPERATIONS DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR GENERAL
AVIATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRATUS MOVING
SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA THIS MORNING THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3 KFT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 KTS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT IOWA TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
WIND WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING TO
NEAR 750 MB. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS OR
GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY ATTM
WITH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW
RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS
THE STATE AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
STATE DURING THIS TIME AND SETS UP A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DOWN TO -5C TO -11C FROM WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO IOWA. WENT
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
CONTINUED TO PLACE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE GROWING DEGREE DAYS OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING LOWS IN THE 20S EARLIER THIS WEEK...LEFT
OUT ANY HEADLINES IN THIS LOCATION. FURTHER SOUTH...UPGRADED TO
FREEZE WARNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 EVEN THOUGH THE
INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WAS BORDERLINE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES/PLANTS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 06Z SUNDAY.
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAYBE UP TO AROUND 850MB...SO MORE LIKELY A
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THAN RAIN. MIXING DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOOKS TO PROVIDE A WARM UP ACROSS THE
STATE. SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...MITIGATING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DID TWEAK THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL
PROVIDE YET MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016
AS SHOWERS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA...FOCUS SWITCHED
TO STRONG WINDS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR BEYOND 13Z FRI
AT ALL TAF SITES. ANY MVFR SHOULD NOT BE PROLONGED. FM GROUPS
ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND INCREASES AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASES AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF ANYTHING...THESE WIND SPEEDS MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...KOTENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. BUT WITH LOW
PROBABILITY OF ANY DISCRETE STORM TO PASS OVER EITHER THE MCK OR
GLD TAF SITE...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS ANTICIPATED MAINLY AFTER 00Z
DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION ROTATING OFF OF
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THERE LOOKS TO ALSO BE SOME WEAK ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX/SW OK. AT THE SURFACE...WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW KS INTO WESTERN OK WITH LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ONE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS` MODEL RUNS IS THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN PLACE...CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATE TONIGHT WITH
NICKEL SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH AREAS EAST OF I-135
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS CONCERNING SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS STILL A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE BETTER SEVERE CHANCES SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT...GENERALLY AFTER 4 PM. WITH
AROUND 2,000J/KG OF CAPE AND 45-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GOLF BALL SIZE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH SUN EVENING AS
700MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER NORTHERN OK WITH THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST KS. BY MON
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE TRACKING OVER EASTERN OK WHICH
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE PRECIP CHANCES FROM
NW TO SE WITH ONLY FAR SE KS HAVING CHANCES BY EARLY MON EVENING.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IN THE LOW 80S...WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE. MUCH COOLER AIR IS ON TAP FOR MON WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 60.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER IMPULSE TO TRACK OUT
OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WED NIGHT INTO
THU. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST VERY SLOWLY AND
SHOULD NOT INTRODUCE STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE THU
NIGHT AND LIKELY CLOSER TO FRI AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT THE
ECMWF AND GFS START TO DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
THIS UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST FOR THE WEEKEND. SO AT THIS POINT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAINLY TO THE EAST OF I-135.
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERNIGHT CHANCE...SO WILL ONLY GO
WITH VCTS FOR KCNU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 2000-2500 2000 FT AGL BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 06Z AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING. THINK MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE MVFR45 CIGS FOR THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KRSL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUN. REACHING KRSL/KSLN AND KGBD BY AROUND 18-
20Z/SUN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE INTO SOUTHERN KS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
SUN AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE. TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FOR KICT...WITH THE VCTS MOST
LIKELY STAYING SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
MAIN FIRE DANGER CONCERN WILL BE OVER SE KS ON SUN.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TOMORROW AND BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE
20-30MPH RANGE WHICH WILL PUSH THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN STORE FOR MON. THIS WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER IN CHECK TO START THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 81 50 59 / 20 10 50 50
HUTCHINSON 55 79 46 59 / 20 10 40 40
NEWTON 56 79 48 59 / 20 10 40 40
ELDORADO 56 81 50 59 / 30 20 60 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 85 52 59 / 20 10 70 60
RUSSELL 52 73 42 58 / 20 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 53 75 43 58 / 20 10 30 30
SALINA 53 76 45 59 / 20 10 20 20
MCPHERSON 55 78 46 59 / 20 10 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 57 82 55 61 / 30 20 80 70
CHANUTE 56 79 51 59 / 30 30 80 60
IOLA 56 79 51 58 / 30 30 70 60
PARSONS-KPPF 56 80 53 60 / 30 20 80 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KETCHAM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
...updated short and long terms...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Immediate short term concern is if it will precipitate this evening.
Satellite and observations show some mid level clouds working in from
the southwest. This is in association with a weak wave that will pass
over later tonight. The HRRR is fairly aggressive, while the ARW is
fairly conservative. Observations show there isn`t much moisture with
this system, so would rather side with the drier solution. I do have
slight pops across west-central Kansas tonight. Even if it did rain,
we are talking about very light accumulations (only a few hundredths).
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will drift over the region this
afternoon and tonight. With the clouds and downslope winds, overnight
lows will be on the mild side - upper 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
A cold front will work through the region tomorrow. Ahead of this front,
downslope flow is expected, and very warm temperatures are likely across
the OK border - low to mid 80s. To the north, low to mid 70s are expected.
There could be elevated fire weather conditions across far southwest
Kansas, however, winds look marginal at this time. Otherwise, have pops
ramping through Sunday night and into Monday morning as upslope/isentropic
lift develops. The highest pops will be along the OK border, where the
lift is stronger along. Severe weather is becoming more unlikely as
the warm sector along with resultant cape is displaced to the southeast
and south. There is some mucape forecast, however, upscale growth could
limit hail potential. To add, the ECMWF is conservative on mucape while
the NAM is higher. I think quarter size hail would be pushing the upper
end of the hail size envelope. Beyond Monday, a dry forecast is expected.
Warm air advection and lee troughing will resume. Attention the turns
to the end of the week. This is our next chance for precipitation. A
large trough is forecast with moderate dewpoints ahead of said system.
The ECMWF has this feature spinning with considerable moisture advection
associated with it. QPF from the model is impressive and over 5" across
far western Kansas. Something to watch. The basic ingredients for severe
is there, however, significant cloud cover is also forecast from the
ECMWF. This may limit instability overall... small mesoscale details
are still unknown. Again, something to watch. It`s Spring and doesn`t
take much to generate a tstorm across Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some lowering of cigs possible
tonight as upper level disturbance moves through. Otherwise, SE/S winds
20-30 kt today, decreasing 15-20 kt tonight. Winds will take more of
a westerly direction by tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 80 45 56 / 10 20 50 50
GCK 49 78 43 57 / 20 20 50 50
EHA 49 82 43 52 / 10 30 50 50
LBL 50 85 45 54 / 10 30 50 50
HYS 51 73 42 59 / 10 10 30 30
P28 55 84 49 57 / 10 30 60 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. N-NW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND HIGH PLAINS REGION. PLUME OF
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH (MAINLY TRANSPARENT) CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING OT SLIDE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY APPROACHING 80F (DEPENDING ON
CLEARING).
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA TO ROUGHLY THE CO BORDER
WITH DRY LINE NEAR KGLD OR SOUTH. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND
DRY LINE WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHER BASED OR ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH
MARGINAL ML CAPE VALUES 400-800 J/KG. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS SPOTTY ACTIVITY...AND MOISTURE PROFILES TEND TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED OVER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAIN HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY
AHEAD/ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MERGING/CLUSTERING. THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE/WHEN TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING IMPACTS...DUE TO SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH).
CONSIDERING WEAKER SHEER PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW...THOUGH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SOUNDINGS. OF MORE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...TDS INCREASE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE WINDS INCREASE TO RFW CRITERIA RH REMAINS ABOVE 20 PERCENT. IN
OUR FAR WEST WE COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
DRY LINE SHIFTS EAST...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE WOULD ACHIEVE
3HR OF RH/WIND CROSSOVER IN THE WEST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER WHERE
LOWER RH VALUES WILL OCCUR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DIPPING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW/-TRW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR EASTERN ZONES...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE AREA AWAITS THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RW LATE IN THE DAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT WITH QUICK PASSAGE
EXPECTED OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM...SO HAVE CONFINED ANY -TRW MAINLY TO SOUTHERN/
EASTERN AREAS...BUT NE COLORADO COULD SEE A STORM DEVELOP.
BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION THRU THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT SAT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPS.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT
UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM STALLING. WILL ADD IN MENTION OF -TRW FOR
THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MODEL INSTABILITY PRESENT. GRADIENT
WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW WEST AND SHIFTED HIGH EAST COULD HAVE AREA
SEEING UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM 24-
48 HRS.
FOR TEMPS...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO END THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S...50S ON MONDAY WITH REGION SEEING CAA ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT.
WARMING TREND MIDWEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
GIVING 60S TUESDAY...70S WED/THURS. INITIALLY 70S ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
NE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 30S LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KGLD BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTS INT TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE WITH PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE GRIDS. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW NEG STRIKES ON THE ENTLN
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LEXINGTON. A MIX OF SLEET OR GRAUPEL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SEEN FROM SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS...THIS GIVEN
THAT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND
2400 FT AGL AT JKL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 8 C/KM
RANGE. ALSO TOOK THE LIBERTY TO UPDATE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EVEN PERIODIC ICE PELLETS/GRAUPEL WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR IN
PLACE ALOFT. THIS IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A PORTION OF 30-40 KNOT WINDS BELOW H85
TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH SHOWERS. HAVE
NOT HOWEVER SEEN ANY GUSTS MUCH ABOVE 30 KNOTS UPSTREAM OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY NEED FOR A HIGHLIGHT IN
THIS REGARD.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ONE FINAL ROUND TONIGHT AS
ABUNDANT UPPER ENERGY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140 KNOT UPPER
JET...TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY MID-LATE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN AND CLOSE OFF TO OUR EAST...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCED WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONE INCH OR LESS
ACROSS BLACK MOUNTAIN WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE IMMINENT
FREEZE TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SENDS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES. COLD DOME IN PLACE WILL HOWEVER KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 40S WHILE BLACK MOUNTAIN MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING FREEZING. SURFACE RIDGING MOVING
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A
CRISP...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS READINGS COOL WELL INTO THE 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS. CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY PEAK COOLING SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BE NEITHER QUICK NOR STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOLLOWING
TONIGHT/S FREEZE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE MODEL DATA WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS
TIME AROUND. THE TWO ISSUES OF NOTE WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
THAT WE ARE EXPECTING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY...AND THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A NIGHT OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALMS WINDS...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN
EXPECT TO WAKE UP TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST ON
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE VERY COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE INFLUX OF WARM
MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS STEADY FLUX OF WARM AIR SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLOUDS WE ARE EXPECTING
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
FRONT TO SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND ITS PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN
EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD EASILY TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE INTRUSION OF A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT EXCEPT TUESDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY MAY EVEN FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 32
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD
WEEK AHEAD FEATURING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE WILL SEE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO START THINGS OFF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
COLD FRONT MIGRATING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING CHICAGO. BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES WHERE MOISTURE
CAN LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY NEAR JKL/SJS. DRIER AIR
WILL SWEEP INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...LIFTING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR CRITERIA. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE THESE DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING AS VEERING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL THEN AGAIN PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH AN APPRECIABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1147 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH A FEW
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DRY... BUT MORE COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
15Z UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMP/TD/SKY/POPS GRIDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HRRR FORECASTING ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS TO
SWING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MASS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS AND THIS LINES UP NICELY WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTWEST
MAINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES DOWN THE COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR BEGINNING FILTER INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SO
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. ASIDE FROM A
FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AS THINGS
HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS FALLING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED. YET.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING.
HOWEVER... ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION... LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED... ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MINOR AS TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WENT
WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE COLDER AIR WILL BE FELT AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. REALLY IT IS JUST
THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING ONE TRACKING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO AVOID ANY SNOW IN OUR AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE
TONIGHT AND WARMING GENERALLY INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED
BY A MODERATING TREND BY EARLY/MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITHOUT A DIRECT
INFLUENCE TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINTS OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS OF TEENS AND 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD RELATIVELY
STEADY THEREAFTER AS A WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SNOW AND RAIN...POSSIBLY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO BECOME HUNG UP IN OUR AREA...WITH RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EURO AND GGEM ARE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE FRONT...HANGING IT BACK OVER OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS/NAM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE WORKS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS GONE VFR BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MOVES
THROUGH. SHOULD SEE THE ENTIRE AREA RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
EVENING.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY IN MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING
BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT BUT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MAINLY
FOR THE LINGERING HIGH SEAS. WAVES OF 5 FT OR GREATER COULD LINGER
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED WITH A STRONG NW
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NART WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FOR FRIDAY`S MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE. THE OUTPUT SUGGESTS LONG PERIOD NEAR SHORE SWELLS OF 9
OR 10 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO
PRODUCE SOME SPLASH-OVER NEAR THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ON THIS CARIBOU.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY. ASTRO TIDE
WILL BE AT 11.7`. ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR WITH MINIMAL
WAVE ACTION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1153 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1152 PM UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW
MOVING OUT OF NH AND INTO WESTERN ME. WE HAVE HAD NO DAMAGE
REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS BUT DUAL POL KDP PRODUCT AS
WELL AS INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES SHOW VERY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE
BAND. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
ACROSS THE AREA WINDS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS AS
WE HAVE SEEN THE PEAK OF THE WINDS AT THIS POINT. HAVE LEFT THE
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOWARDS MORNING. HOWEVER...WE RECEIVED LESS RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT THAN FORECAST...AND PER CONVERSATIONS WITH THE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING RIVER FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED WITH THE 4
AM PACKAGE...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
ANALYZE.
850 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT
TOWARDS THE MID COAST AND CAPITAL DISTRICTS OF MAINE WHICH WILL
SEE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OF THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS IS HELPING TO FUEL THE CONVECTIVE LINE NOW SURGING INTO
SOUTHERN NH. AHEAD OF THE LINE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ARE
BREAKING OUT.
THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN MASSACHUSETT`S BUT
HAS BEEN QUIET THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. STILL WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL MIXING TO THE GROUND. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MARCH EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AUGUSTA AND ENVIRONS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN
MAINE. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN SOME AREAS AND MAY
BE THE TIPPING POINT FOR SOME RIVERS TO TOP BANKFULL AND REACH
MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOTCHES WHERE THE MOST RAIN
HAS FALLEN.
WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE ADVISORY REGION...BUT THERE ARE MANY OUTAGES REPORTED AND
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. THAT SAID A FEW LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST DID REACH CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE LETTING THE
ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME.
525 PM UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...COASTAL AND INTERIOR
YORK...AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES. RAP AS WELL AS HRRR INDICATE GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM. PORTLAND IS CURRENTLY NEARING SUSTAINED 35 MPH. MOST
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH GUSTS
HOWEVER. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE MISO/MESOSCALE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
OVER- SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH EVENT WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING
OFF IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 800 AND
900 PM WITH PRECIP LIFTING OUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
WINDS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL BE CONTINUING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE RISES ON SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM SOME OF WHICH WILL APPROACH BANKFULL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL NOT BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST LOOKING FOR
VARIABLE CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LOW PRESSURE MON-TUE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR AS COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS REGION. COOLER BUT DRY END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT. VFR ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES THROUGH 4 AM. WIDELY SCT STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT TO POSSIBLY LOW END GALES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE THIS EVENING RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, (1158 PM IN PORTLAND HARBOR).
MINOR FLOODING COULD EXPAND ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO THE
PENOBSCOT BAY REGION. THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR NEAR EXPOSED AREAS TO THE SE
DIRECTION. THIS MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE BACKBAY AREA IN HAMPTON AS
WELL AS GRANITE POINT ROAD IN BIDDEFORD.
THE NART BASED WAVE RUN-UP OUTPUT SUGGESTS EROSION AND OVERWASH
LIKELY FOR JENNIS AND CAMP ELLIS BEACHES...WHILE EROSION WILL
OCCUR AT FORTUNES ROCKS...FERRY AND POPHAM BEACHES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS AND DRY AIR.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES OVER 9KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS COOLING TO NEGATIVE 35 TO 40C AT
500HPA. CONFLUENT WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALSO
PROMOTED ENHANCED ECHOES AND VORTICES SEEN ON RADAR MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACKING SOUTH OVER BAYFIELD COUNTY. AS OF 300
PM...SPOTTERS IN BAYFIELD COUNTY HAVE REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW ONGOING. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATING AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES.
STILL COOL...BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
ACROSS MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND ESPECIALLY THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORCING
DUE TO THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJOR
TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL BY
00Z TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A BIT
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEN EVENTUALLY A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO THE
50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. BY TONIGHT...A LOT OF THE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT
KHYR...WHERE SNOW SQUALLS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS EVENING. VFR WILL THEN TAKE
HOLD OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 13 32 28 43 / 10 10 40 20
INL 7 34 25 41 / 10 20 40 40
BRD 15 39 31 48 / 10 10 20 10
HYR 12 35 29 49 / 70 10 40 30
ASX 13 33 28 46 / 90 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ002>004.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCITED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND DISSIPATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS BUT THEY ARE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.COULD SEE ANOTHER ONE
HALF INCH IN AREAS SEEING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -SHSN NEAR KSTC AND KMSP FOR A COUPLE HOURS YET. THEN WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTERED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY WEDGE
WORKED ACROSS WC WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL
IN WITH VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME -SHSN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AREA AS WELL. CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATE. GUSTY N-NW WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME SE AND INCREASE/GUSTY ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN
PORTION OF THE FA LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
BAND OF -SHSN DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. LOW END VFR CIGS LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHTINTO
SAT. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. N-NW WINDS GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AND SE AND INCREASING INTO
SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
BATCH OF SNOW OUT IN WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...REMAINING WEST OF MSP/STC. OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOW...ANTICIPATE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FAIRLY ROBUST
CU FIELD BETWEEN 030 AND 050 DEVELOPS BASED ON RAP AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON IN WRN MN AND WORK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING. LAMP GUIDANCE FOR WINDS SPEEDS TODAY HAS GOOD
SUPPORT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RAP. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT...IT WILL MEAN A QUICK DROP OFF IN WIND
SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET.
KMSP...BASED ON THE HRRR/HOPWRF...EXPECT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WEST
OF MSP TO REMAIN WEST OF MSP THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY.
EXPANSIVE AND PV RICH UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THIS DURING THE SHORT
TERM IS THAT THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DENOTED BY A 135KT NW
UPPER JET WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL FINALLY
CUT OFF THE PRECIP GENERATION.
WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
PRECIP AND THAT IS THE ENHANCED AREA OF PV DIVING SSE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE SLOWLY PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN SNOWING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE NOTED. THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MORNING
FROM FARGO/ELBOW LAKE DOWN TOWARD FAIRMONT. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES...THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL COME AS MIXING AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING THAT
WILL START BREAKING UP IN WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH SAID
CLEARING WORKING EVEN ACROSS WRN WI TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 750 MB...BUT THINK THIS WILL MAINLY BE VIRGA AS
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE CLOUDS BEING LIMITED BY THE INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.
FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COLD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES. H85 TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN -12C...WHICH IS NEAR OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DID TREND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TOWARD A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED RAW GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDED UP KNOCKING 2 OR 3 DEGREES
OFF OF HIGHS FOR TODAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...RECORD LOWS AT
MSP/STC/EAU ARE 15/14/12 RESPECTIVELY...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SAFE...THOUGH WE WILL GET TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF THOSE VALUES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NOT TOO MANY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE TWO MINOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BEING NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST EVENT IS BECOMING WEAKER FROM RUN TO RUN AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTENING IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. CHANCE POPS
PREVAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE IS ALSO A DECREASE IN THE
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HELD TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THE SECOND PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS A WARM AIR
ADVECTION EVENT...WITH FORCING FROM ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PASSES BEFORE THE RIDGE SPREADS IN. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT NOT THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRY AND LACKED
ANY SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
RAIN AND SNOW IS STARTING TO PULL OUT IN WRN WI...WITH A WEDGE OF
CLEAR SKIES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH ERN NODAK HAS ANOTHER BURST OF -SN AND MVFR CIGS
HEADING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD AXN/RWF. ADDED A VCSH AT
AXN FOR THE EARLY MORNING...BUT IF RADAR TRENDS DO NOT START TO
DIMINISH SOON..COULD BE MORE THAN A VCSH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRETTY ADAMANT THAT BY MID-MORNING...A BKN-OVC CU DECK WILL BE IN
PLACE AREA WIDE BETWEEN 030 AND 050. THIS CU FIELD WILL START
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE LOOK TO HAVE A DEEP AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVEN THE BULLISH LAMP WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
LOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...THAT WILL KILL THE WINDS AND RESULT IN SKC SKIES.
KMSP...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
OUTSIDE THREAT OF SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS LOOK TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE 30S...BUT COULD SEE GUSTS TO
AS HIGH AS 35 KTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG NW 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. NW WIND 10-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
706 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH
WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K
INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE
BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE
30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS
IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S.
VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO
AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE
FREEZING.
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID
INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND
500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY.
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS
UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF
MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER.
THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K
INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING
TSTMS IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART EARLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SHOWERS
TONIGHT ARE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE UPPER-GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SRN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS GLANCING THE MID-
MO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE (PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS) WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
TOMORROW(SUN) MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
ERN NEB AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND MAXIMUM WILL HASTEN THE POLEWARD FLUX OF HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT PRESENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT THE COMBINATION OF MODEST LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WARRANTS THE GOING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...THE INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND TURBULENT
MIXING OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB TO NEAR 70
AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NEB-KS BORDER.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL INDUCE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR SWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BY TUESDAY...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO SHIFTING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PROMOTE BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
A HIGH-OVER-LOW MID-LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER CNTRL NORTH AMERICA
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
BY LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. 12Z MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER-AIR
SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MENTIONED AT THE END OF
THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BY NEXT
WEEKEND...CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE HANDLING OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL THREE SITES. RAP AND NAM MODELS HINT AT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION A SCT
LAYER FOR NOW. DECIDED NOT TO MENTION ANY PCPN AT THIS TIME...BUT
MAY ADJUST THAT WITH 06Z TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
SOME GUSTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TODAY...THOUGH
IN THE 18-22KT RANGE AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN EITHER CASE TO BE MENTIONED
SPECIFICALLY IN THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z BEFORE A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS TURN BACK TO
WESTERLY.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE THIS MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 10TH.
DAYGSORDUFAY
LOWLOWLOW
4/10242322
1985 1985 1996
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
536 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE THIS MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 10TH.
DAYGSORDUFAY
LOWLOWLOW
4/10242322
1985 1985 1996
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
415 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM FRIDAY...
A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN-MON...BUT THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A BLOCKING
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO GREENLAND WILL CAUSE A
MEAN TROUGH TO RELOAD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY-- INCLUDING A
PARADE OF AT LEAST THREE DISTINCT WAVES THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CLOSED LOWS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES-- WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BECOME SHEARED AT THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH/FLOW. SUCH A PATTERN ALOFT YIELDS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVES THAT WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AND SOUTHWARD-
SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN AND
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVG
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON MORNING - HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH FAIR-GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES--
INTO THE 70S MON-TUE-- WITH A FOLLOWING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL NC
CENTERED AROUND THE DAY TUE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK
AND LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER WITH THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED FLAT/WEAK CHARACTER OF ANY
FRONTAL WAVES.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD RELATES TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE LAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
WILL SLOW AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LIKE
THE PAST FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE. SUCH A
SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A RE-INTRODUCTION OF RAIN TO AN OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC...AMIDST RENEWED CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WOULD
CERTAINLY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH FLOW SEPARATION FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE SOUTHEAST - A
COMMON OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR (APR-MAY).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ADVECTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WITH EACH PASSAGE.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING VENTRAL NC LAST EVENING IS NOW WELL INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH GOOD CLEARING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST TO IMPACT NC IN THE NEAR TERM
IS CURRENTLY OVER TN AND WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TODAY.
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH COOLING/MOISTENING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHOWERS. A CONSENSUS OF THE WRF
NMM/ARW AND HRRR IS FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER
AFTER 20Z. FORECAST HIGHS OF 59-67 ARE BASED ON DEEP DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO NEAR 80MB AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STATISTICAL PROGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN BUT QUITE A BIT LESS
INTENSE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MOST IN THE 18-22KT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AS A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A
SURFACE LOW CROSS THE OH VALLEY. CAMS AGAIN SUGGEST THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND VERY LIGHT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. NEARLY
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP AND YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE...INCREASING WIND AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT
FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...
...A HARD FREEZE LOOKS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS AND HIGHS OF 47-55..RESULTING IN LOW RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S.
COMBINED WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE...RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET AND COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS HAS
BEEN PLANNED FOR TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT....THAT IS UNLESS CIRRUS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH IS THICKER THAN FORECAST. H10-H85 THICKNESSES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 1280M AND 1290M...WHICH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A FREEZE...IF NOT A HARD
FREEZE...AREAWIDE...SO A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...
THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RELOAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LEAD S/W IN THIS LATEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE KINEMATICS WITH THE SYSTEM NOT TOO
SHABBY...MODEL CURRENTLY PREDICTING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER LOW LEVEL
MASS INTO CENTRAL NC...SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE MILD AIR WILL HANG AROUND FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING HAVE HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY 10-14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IF THE SFC HIGH OF 1030-1035MB VERIFIES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND A S/W APPROACHES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...COULD SEE A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND MORE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...APPROACHING KFAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR KGSO/KINT LATER THIS EVENING. IN
NEITHER CASE IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
THE TAF...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK... WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CREATE
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY. PLAN TO COORDINATE WITH THE NC
FORESTRY SERVICE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...2
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST. AFTER CEILINGS LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE AND THEN CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT ALONG A FRONT IN NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
UPDATE...
LOWERED MINS IN MANY AREAS... ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OVERNIGHT POPS.
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MESONET
SHOWS MORE STATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE
BEEN GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN... SO POPS ARE BEING RAISED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND RELATIVELY BRIEF... BUT IT
STILL IS MEASURABLE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST... THERE STILL IS A LITTLE SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT... SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN OVERNIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35.
THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WITH THE VIRGA/SHOWERS ALREADY REDUCED TEMPERATURES IN
MANY AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ALREADY NEAR
OR IN SOME CASES BELOW FORECAST MINS. THERE WILL STILL BE A FLOOR
TO THE TEMPERATURE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION KEEPING DEWPOINTS
UP OVERNIGHT... AND TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN START RISING IN SOME
AREAS... BUT FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES STILL NEEDED TO BE LOWERED
IN GENERAL. POPULATED HOURLY TEMPS WITH THE RAP AS IT LOOKS TO
HAVE THE CORRECT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THEY SHOULD LIFT BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE DOMINATE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWRD OUT OF SW/S OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MOST
SIGNIFICANT POPS WILL END AFTER 00Z AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF OUR FA. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW, BUT EXPECT SOME
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS LLJ RAMPS UP.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW, AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONTINUE NEAR
SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A LEE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PANHANDLES, WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTHERN KS AND A DRYLINE
OVER WESTERN OK/W N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT
MAX LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SW OK/W N TX. EXPECT
SOME DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION BEFORE 00Z MONDAY
WHERE A NARROW AXIS OF REDUCED CIN AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP. INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK WILL
LIKELY OCCUR A SHORT TIME AFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SLOWLY INCREASE
AND THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTS TOWARD NORTHERN OK. LARGE HAIL, UP TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS, WILL BE POSSIBLE/THE MAIN THREAT
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNSET AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER A COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP, BUT IF IT
DOES THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE OVER NE/E OK THROUGH EARLY
MON AM.
POPS WILL CONTINUE MON AS THE MAIN VORT MAX PASSES DIRECTLY OVER
OUR FA. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH MON EVENING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR THE
TRIPLE POINT/COLD FRONT ADVANCES WITH COLD POOL INTERACTION AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE
SFC LOW WILL END UP SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 18Z SO
EXPECT A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SE OF HERE NEAR SE OK BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT BLASTS OVER THE RED RIVER.
ANOTHER MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF WESTERN N TX LATE
TUE THROUGH WED OVER N TX, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE PATTERN WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC CHANGE LATE THU
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. POPS AND SEVERE CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 84 60 69 / 20 10 50 40
HOBART OK 56 88 57 69 / 10 20 50 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 85 62 80 / 10 30 30 10
GAGE OK 54 86 50 58 / 10 20 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 55 85 53 61 / 20 20 80 60
DURANT OK 57 76 65 79 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
837 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINS IN MANY AREAS... ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OVERNIGHT POPS.
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MESONET
SHOWS MORE STATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE
BEEN GETTING MEASURABLE RAIN... SO POPS ARE BEING RAISED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND RELATIVELY BRIEF... BUT IT
STILL IS MEASURABLE. ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST... THERE STILL IS A LITTLE SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT... SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN OVERNIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF
I-35.
THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WITH THE VIRGA/SHOWERS ALREADY REDUCED TEMPERATURES IN
MANY AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ALREADY NEAR
OR IN SOME CASES BELOW FORECAST MINS. THERE WILL STILL BE A FLOOR
TO THE TEMPERATURE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION KEEPING DEWPOINTS
UP OVERNIGHT... AND TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN START RISING IN SOME
AREAS... BUT FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES STILL NEEDED TO BE LOWERED
IN GENERAL. POPULATED HOURLY TEMPS WITH THE RAP AS IT LOOKS TO
HAVE THE CORRECT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THEY SHOULD LIFT BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE DOMINATE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWRD OUT OF SW/S OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MOST
SIGNIFICANT POPS WILL END AFTER 00Z AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF OUR FA. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW, BUT EXPECT SOME
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS LLJ RAMPS UP.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW, AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONTINUE NEAR
SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A LEE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PANHANDLES, WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTHERN KS AND A DRYLINE
OVER WESTERN OK/W N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT
MAX LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SW OK/W N TX. EXPECT
SOME DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION BEFORE 00Z MONDAY
WHERE A NARROW AXIS OF REDUCED CIN AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP. INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK WILL
LIKELY OCCUR A SHORT TIME AFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SLOWLY INCREASE
AND THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTS TOWARD NORTHERN OK. LARGE HAIL, UP TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS, WILL BE POSSIBLE/THE MAIN THREAT
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNSET AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER A COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP, BUT IF IT
DOES THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE OVER NE/E OK THROUGH EARLY
MON AM.
POPS WILL CONTINUE MON AS THE MAIN VORT MAX PASSES DIRECTLY OVER
OUR FA. SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY MON AFTERNOON
THROUGH MON EVENING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR THE
TRIPLE POINT/COLD FRONT ADVANCES WITH COLD POOL INTERACTION AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE
SFC LOW WILL END UP SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 18Z SO
EXPECT A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SE OF HERE NEAR SE OK BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT BLASTS OVER THE RED RIVER.
ANOTHER MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF WESTERN N TX LATE
TUE THROUGH WED OVER N TX, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE PATTERN WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC CHANGE LATE THU
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. POPS AND SEVERE CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 84 60 69 / 20 10 50 40
HOBART OK 56 88 57 69 / 10 20 50 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 85 62 80 / 10 30 30 10
GAGE OK 54 86 50 58 / 10 20 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 55 85 53 61 / 20 20 80 60
DURANT OK 57 76 65 79 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
220 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...08/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE OFFSHORE REX BLOCK THAT BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO THE MEDFORD
CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS BROKEN...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL SET
UP FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OFFSHORE IS NOW OVER THE AREA...BUT
A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS NEAR 35N 135W. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA HAS
TURNED SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. IT IS EARLY FOR THIS TYPE OF MOISTURE...BUT THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY FOR MEDFORD ALSO CAME VERY EARLY...EARLIER THAN EVER
BEFORE AS A MATTER OF FACT.
THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AFTER A HOT SPELL USUALLY MEANS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THAT AREA WILL BE IS PROVING TO BE A MAJOR
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
TODAY ISN`T LOOKING GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW THE MOST
INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CASCADES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR AT THIS TIME. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KMFR SHOWED 0.66
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS LESS
NOW. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. SPC GUIDANCE KEEPS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THERE ISN`T MUCH IN THE WAY OF NON-
THERMAL FORCING. THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE MUCH OF ANYTHING...JUST A
FEW CELLS OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU AND WESTERN MODOC COUNTY.
SO...WILL BACK OFF ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES GET GOING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LACK OF
NON-THERMAL FORCING.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE MEDFORD CWA. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS MAY STILL BE SET TODAY...BUT THEY WON`T BE SHATTERED THE
WAY THEY WERE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL SET UP TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN EASTERLY...BUT IT WILL NOT
CUT OFF THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...IT WILL JUST PUSH
THE TRAJECTORY FARTHER EAST.
THIS WILL PUSH THE HOT SPOT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THE CASCADES
AND NEAR EAST SIDE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.
INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIR MASS IN GENERAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA WHERE IT WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OREGON AND THE LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE TRENDS ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST...AND THE EAST SIDE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA THEN.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER STILL...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNT
SHASTA AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A KICKER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
BUT IT WILL SET UP AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING MONDAY IT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST
SIDE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME OR JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS.
LONG-TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION DETAILS...ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER 500MB
HEIGHTS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS LOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY. THE EC
FEATURES A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES AN UPPER LOW SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GFS MODEL TRENDS DO POINT TOWARD LOWERING HEIGHTS
OFFSHORE...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS...WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY INTACT.
SO...IN SUMMARY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS COOL AND WET TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY WEATHER DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW POSITIONING AMONGST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST EXPECT IFR TO
SPREAD INLAND INTO THE COOS BASIN INTO THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE COASTAL IFR DURING FRIDAY THOUGH
WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR
STRATUS UP TO THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY MORNING. SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRI 8 APR 2016...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW DECREASING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FOR NOW, WE`LL LEAVE THE HEADLINE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OFFSHORE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. HOWEVER
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING WEST SWELL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 16 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL GET THAT HIGH, BUT HAVE TRENDED THEM UPWARD. IF THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE SWELL HEIGHT, THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
15/06/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK...BLUSTERY AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. A CHANNELED VORT
LOBE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. POPS WERE
UPDATED SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER EAST TN AND
LATEST COUPLE HRRR RUNS. IN THE LLVLS...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ATOP
THE CWFA. A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR ACRS THE MTNS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING 850
MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS OVER THE NC MTNS. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS
MORE BULLISH ON THE WINDS...ESP UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. I AM
SKEPTICAL OF THIS...AND OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND WHICH ONLY BUMPS
UP WINDS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE
WIND ADVISORY LOOKS WELL PLACED. THE GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW).
THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS NW FLOW SNOW. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT...WITH
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER IN THE USUAL NW
FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DECK SHOULD DISSIPATE EAST OF THE
MTNS THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN
THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LWR 30S IN THE MTNS
(WHERE IN THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD). MIN TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 12-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...IN AN OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
TIER LATE MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE...AND POP WILL BE KEPT AT SUB SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW. EVEN THEN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDOWN MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A FREEZE OR
HARD FREEZE LOOKS QUITE LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF 20S MINS EXPECTED.
SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAY KEEP FROST FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD DESPITE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE
CURRENT WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SOUTH TO SW FLOW AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON MAXES NEAR CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM...THEN DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST...
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH INCREASING POP MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POP ALL AREAS TUESDAY AND THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
CONFUSION REIGNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOWS ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US OPENING UP AND SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN IT AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE ECMWF STARTS OUT LIKE
THE GFS BUT KEEPS A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER MOVING UPPER LOW. THIS
LOW NEVER PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND NOW REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE SE
THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FRIDAY...BUT SOME
ENERGY DOES UNDERCUT AN ANTICYCLONE WITH DEVELOPS FROM THE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER
THE NE US AND TAKES ON A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A FAST MOVING GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE GULF LOW...BUT NOT AS WET AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND WHICH BRINGS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP BACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE WINDS...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE REGION. THE NW LLVL WINDS WILL KEEP A LEE
TROF ACRS THE PIEDMONT THAT WILL MAKE FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
UPSTATE SITES AND KHKY AND KCLT. STILL EXPECT KCLT TO FAVOR 280-290
THRU MOST OF THE AFTN...THEN BRIEFLY FAVOR 260 THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFT BACK TO 280 BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AGAIN EAST OF THE MTNS NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK OUT OF
THE NW. A HIGH-BASED A SCT-BKN CU DECK WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY SKC OR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION IS
AT KAVL...WHERE LOWER VFR CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU
THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR SC...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SC FORESTRY...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE FOR SATURDAY FROM 10
AM TO 8 PM EDT. THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WINDS LOOK CLOSE TO RED
FLAG...BUT FUEL MOISTURES ARE STILL A BIT TOO MOIST FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING.
FOR GA...FUELS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 10 PCT TODAY...BUT FURTHER
DRYING WILL LIKELY PUSH THEM TO THE 8 PCT THRESHOLD. BOTH THE RH AND
WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA...SO AN
SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR NE GA.
FOR NC...AT TIME OF THIS WRITING...WE ARE STILL COORDINATING FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH...AS
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS LOOK SOLID RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 2001 35 1916 62 1922 24 1972
KCLT 89 1893 46 2003 64 1908 25 1972
1916
KGSP 89 1965 48 2003 63 1999 27 1972
1938 1922
RECORDS FOR 04-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2001 38 1907 60 1959 23 1985
1929
1908
KCLT 90 2001 44 1984 65 1922 28 2007
1893 1985
KGSP 91 1995 44 2003 63 1922 24 1916
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
501>507.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ068>072-082-508>510.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036-
037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK
CLIMATE...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION AND MARINE
DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWERING AND THICKENING THE CLOUD
DECKS TONIGHT...DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL RECOVER TO MODERATE OR BREEZY BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTH TEXAS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER GRADIENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...HOISTED SCA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HRRR SUPPORTS 20 KT
COVERAGE AT TIMES. SCA WILL BE LOW END MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT
ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLAG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...H5 LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DIFFLUENCE
WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS SWEEPING EWD THROUGH EAST TEXAS...WHILE
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE THICK LOW CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SFC FOG FROM THICKENING. THE CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP THIN OUT THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS...REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S OUT WEST. NEXT PIECE OF THE H5 LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE EDGE OF THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION...SIMILAR TO THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A COUPLE OF 500 MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEX FROM MON THROUGH WED. THE
PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
RGV LATE WED. THIS OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OR NORTHERN MEX THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON FRI AND SAT.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED WILL NOT BE MARKED BY
SIGNIFICANT CAA WITH A WARMER E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
PRETTY QUICKLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND REACHING
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7 AND WILL OPT FOR A
GENERAL 50/50 MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL NOT BE
VERY DEEP BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME LOW
END POPS AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE WEAK FROPA. EXPECT MAINLY CLD
COVER TO BE THE ISSUE WITH THIS MOISTURE.
RUN TO RUN CONSITENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE
PRETTY STABLE AND MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF IS PRETTY GOOD ALSO. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...REMAINING ABOVE 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MIXING OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BRING PART OF THE LLVL JET
TO THE SFC TONIGHT...PUSHING WINDS TO NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED...RUNNING
5 FEET OR GREATER THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD OF THE MARINE FORECAST AS A MODERATE E TO
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE REGION ON WED. AM NOT SURE IF SCAS WILL BE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. SCEC WORDING MAY BE MORE LIKELY FOR LATE WED.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/59
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...TREND OF PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE DELAYING ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS...AND KEEP OUT
MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS
OBSCURING LOWER CLOUD IN IR IMAGERY SO DIFFICULT TO TIME IN
ARRIVAL. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INSISTENT ON BRINING
IN THOSE MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
QUICK/TOO LOW WITH CLOUDS HOWEVER...SO LEANING MORE ON RAP AND
GFS.
HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PERIOD PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND IR IMAGERY TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN
SERLY WINDS TO ABOUT 15KT FOR FRI AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO
RE-DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET FRI BENEATH CAPPING
INVERSION. ANY PRECIP THREAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SHORT TERM AND HI RES MODELS DEPICT A MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AND THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT BRO
AND HRL THIS EVENING THEN TO IFR AT THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT MFE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL RISE BACK TO MVFR AFT 12Z WITH VFR RETURNING BY 17Z.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU APR 7 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WHAT REMAINED OF THE COLD
FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE VALLEY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT...SO DRY AIR IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH TEMPS OUT
WEST JUMPING WELL INTO THE 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SFC MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS RETURNING. WITHOUT THE FOCUSING MECHANISM OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE BOTTLED UP AHEAD OF IT TO PRODUCE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT LIKE THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST.DAYTIME CU WILL BE
MORE ABUNDANT WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE REGION...WHILE CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO POUR IN OVERHEAD. THE H5 TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BE
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST...WITH REASONABLE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF IT.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUILDING ON THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO RIGHT AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW...WITH FAVORABLE
STEERING WINDS TO POSSIBLY GET SOME OF THESE SHOWERS INTO ZAPATA AND
JIM HOGG COUNTIES TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A COUPLE OF MINOR
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL AID IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A DRYLINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATER TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN EXIT THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING...SO MODEST SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...SO WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN CHECK...REACHING NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FOOT SWELLS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO AT TIME STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THIS PERIOD. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-SCHROEDER/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
HIGH LEVEL RADAR RETURNS OVER WISCONSIN ARE VIRGA FALLING FROM
CLOUD BASES AROUND 12K FT WITH INITIAL 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SE IOWA/W CENTRAL IL IN REGION OF BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION.
STILL THINKING THAT PCPN WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE CWA AS PERSISTENT
STRONG ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA SHOWN ON THE 285K AND 290K
SURFACES COMBINES WITH 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RIDING IN ON 55
TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN AND
LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIP.
LATEST NAM SHOWING PCPN DEVELOPING WITH LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS THAT ARE A BIT FARTHER NE THAN EARLIER
RUNS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN HRRR
RUNS...BUT THE LATEST HRRR STILL MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST PLACEMENT. NO CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST THOUGH WILL
MONITOR TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN START TIME.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE INITIAL PCPN-TYPE AS SNOW...GOING
A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/RAIN...BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN. WILL AWAIT
A LOOK AT THE FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT NO CHANGES TO GOING WINTER
HEADLINES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME TIME FROM
INITIAL LIFT COMING INTO THE REGION AND COLUMN MOISTENING ENOUGH
TO LOWER CIGS AND PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TIMING IN
CURRENT TAFS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...AND BARRING ANY BIG CHANGES
IN THE FULL 0ZZ DATA SET...WILL BE KEPT. LOOKING FOR A WINTRY MIX
TO BEGIN AROUND 09Z...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. STILL
LOOKS AS IF THE FAR EAST HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
LIFR CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE WITH PCPN ENDING IN THE
EAST BY 06Z MONDAY.
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE 3K FT TO 5K FT LAYER MOVE ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN...BUT EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP DIFFERENTIAL BELOW WIND
SHEAR CRITERIA.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED
BY THE MID-OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLIMB TOWARD SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WAS BEING DRIVEN
BY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS TO BE SNOW INITIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN GENERALLY FROM PORTAGE
TO LAKE GENEVA...AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTHWEST OF THERE...DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 07Z TO 13Z
TIMEFRAME...IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...TO CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS. SO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. TOOK OUT THUNDER WORDING...AS NAM HAD SMALL
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING
NONE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY...WITH STRONG
INVERSION BELOW THE WARM LAYER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
WILL CONTINUE SHOWER THREAT ACROSS CWA EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL TROF EXIT SOUTHEAST WI. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND DEPARTING TROF WILL PULL
COOLER...DRIER AIR ACROSS SRN WI LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING LIGHT
RAIN THREAT AND CLEARING SKIES. LINGERING THERMAL TROF AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...DAYTIME TEMPS
WL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD
INTO THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AS MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER SRN CANADA AND GTLAKES WL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY...SUCCUMBING TO MORE W-NW UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS
FLOW WL LIKELY TURN MORE ZONAL AROUND MID-WEEK AND MORE SWLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK ERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROF SPREADS EWD ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS TROF
SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND ALSO
SERVE TO KEEP CHANCES OF -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH MIGRATING CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF WI LATE IN THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY...PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WL
BRING INCREASING THREAT OF -SHRA TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER IN MOISTURE RETURN AND INTRODUCING
SHRA THREAT TO SRN WI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE GFS SLOWER AND HOLD
OFF WITH SHRA THREAT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NEVER THE LESS...WITH STEERING WINDS BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO SWLY
DURING THE PERIOD...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR AND THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE BREEZES WL KEEP
LAKESHORE AREAS CONSIDERABLY COOLER HOWEVER.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT
THE EASTERN SITES...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BECOMING OVERCAST LATER TONIGHT AND LOWERING. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT...DEVELOPING BY AROUND 07Z SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT
SNOW AT THE EASTERN SITES...THEN MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. THIS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND 13Z SUNDAY...WHEN IT
BECOMES ALL RAIN INTO THE REST OF THE DAY. MADISON MAY BE MORE ON
THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SLEET. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY 12Z SUNDAY HERE.
THUS...THERE IS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z SUNDAY AT TAF SITES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH AT THE EASTERN SITES.
MAINLY MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD
THEN DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEVELOPING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...SHOULD ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO
REACH GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH WAVES DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS. THUS...ISSUED A GALE WARNING FROM 09Z TO 18Z SUNDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AS
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES SUBSIDE. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ046-
047-051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...PRECIP
CHANCES/TYPES LATER SAT NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LOWER MI WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS NORTHWEST INTO WI. WV IMAGERY
SHOWED A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO RIPPLE SOUTH FROM
WESTERN ONT ACROSS MN TO EASTERN IA. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PLUS
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCING SHSN FROM EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO EASTERN IA.
VSBYS IN SOME OF THE SHSN DROP TO LESS THAN 1SM. FURTHER EAST NEAR
THE SFC TROUGH...MORE WIDESPREAD -SN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN
WI...WHILE FURTHER WEST CLOUDS MORE SCT/SKIES CLEAR OVER WESTERN
MN/IA. UNDER THE CLOUDS/COLD NORTHERLY FLOW...MID-DAY TEMPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND 20F BELOW NORMAL.
08.12Z MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS HGTS RISE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT/SAT. THIS AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CAN. TREND AT 00Z SUN FAVORS FASTER OF
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE CAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TIMING TREND SAT
NIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MAIN TROUGH/
ENERGY MOVES EAST OF LK WINNIPEG...WHILE FAVORING STRONGER OF THE
EARLIER RUNS WITH THE ENERGY ITSELF. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE WITH MODELS OFFERING THE TIGHT CONSENSUS.
FOR THE SHORT-TERM...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST AREA RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING -SN TO DIMINISH/EXIT THE EAST
SIDE OF THE FCST AREA RATHER QUICKLY AS WELL. SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS/
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE EAST INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY COLD TEMPS BY SAT MORNING. PER
NAEFS...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z SAT TO BE SOME 1.5 TO 2 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SAT MORNING LOWS CONTINUE TO TREND SOME 10F TO 15F
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S CURRENTLY
WELL TRENDED IN THE FCST GRIDS AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST NUMERICAL
TEMP GUIDANCE. TEMPS TO START REBOUNDING ALREADY SAT AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS GOES
INTO WARMING VS. VERTICAL MOTION...WITH 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z SUN
ALREADY IN THE +2C TO -2C RANGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGHS SAT IN
THE 35F TO 45F RANGE QUITE REASONABLE. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS WELL BY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS 5-15 MPH FOR
INCREASING MIXING.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT...WITH EVEN STRONGER 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SFC-MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL CAN. SOME OF THIS
WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO GO INTO LIFT AS A SFC-850MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...850MB TEMPS BY 12Z SUN PROGGED
IN THE 0C TO +10C RANGE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z SUN. 925-700MB MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER SAT NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH LOWER LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IN THE COLUMN CREATING
PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. THERMAL PROFILE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE AND STRONGER WARMING INDICATING A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THE EARLIER ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP/
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS MORE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...MAY ALLOW SOME -FZRA TO DEVELOP
LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS MAINLY ON TREES/POWER LINES AND PERHAPS BRIDGE
DECKS. LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF KLSE CONTINUES TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE FCST GRIDS. WITH THE STRONG 850MB WARMING AND
STEADY/ RISING SFC TEMPS LATE SAT NIGHT...BULK OF ANY PRECIP BY 12Z
SUN SHOULD TRANSITION TO -RA/-SHRA OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST END OF
THE FCST AREA. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME WEAK MUCAPE INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/
STRONGEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA SOUTH OF I-90 LATE SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/ ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH PLENTY OF SOUTH WINDS FOR MIXING AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN THICKENING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT
TRENDED TOWARD WARM OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THRU FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-RA/-SHRA CHANCES SUN...TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.
08.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN INTO MON NIGHT. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON/MON NIGHT BUT SIGNAL FOR THE TROUGH AXIS
TO PASS LATE MON/MON EVENING WITH HGTS THEN RISING LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. OVERALL TREND /AT LEAST AT THE MID LEVELS/ FAVORS
STRONGER/SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION SUN THRU MON. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN THRU MON NIGHT
PERIOD IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.
TREND OF MODELS IS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC-850MB
FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM EAST OF AREA BY 00Z MON. MAIN LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING...AND THIS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGHEST -RA/-SHRA CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. SMALL TSRA CHANCE
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 SUN MORNING OKAY FOR NOW BUT LATER DETAILING
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT THIS TO MAINLY THE 12Z-
15Z PERIOD AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KLSE. STRONGEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION PROGGED TO LAG THE COLD FRONT BY AS MUCH AS 100-200
MILES...WITH 925MB TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA STILL IN THE +6C TO +12C
RANGE AT 00Z MON. WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS...HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 LOOKING
GOOD AT THIS TIME. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/DRYING SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...DROPPING 925MB TEMPS TO -2C TO -7C BY
12Z MON. NAEFS THEN HAS 850MB TEMPS 1 TO 1.5 STD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL MON/MON NIGHT...FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS THE NEXT CAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARS...LOWS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING TRENDING TO BE
SOME 10F TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMING TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SMALL -RA CHANCE WED.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z/08.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TROUGHING TO BE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION TUE AND LONGER WAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WED INTO THU.
THIS AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGHING MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WED. SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY WED/THU BUT THIS TO BE EXPECTED. REASONABLE
CONSISTENCY FOR STRONGER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRI AS STRONGER TROUGHING MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR WARMING TEMPS NEXT WEEK BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON ANY SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES.
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH COOL/DRY CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUE. 850MB TEMPS TUE STILL AROUND 1 STD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. TUE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL. THE
HIGH DRIFTS OFF TUE NIGHT...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION THEN SETTING UP FOR WED INTO FRI UNDER THE BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THU...WITH GFS
PUSHING THEM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI /ONE OF THE LATE PERIOD DETAIL
DIFFERENCES/. EITHER WAY...THE PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW WED INTO FRI AND RISING HGTS ALOFT ALLOW TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL /LOW-MID 50S/ BY THU AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI.
CAN-GEM BRING ONE LAST STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED /GFS/ECMWF TRACK IT FURTHER NORTH/ WITH A SFC-700MB
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE INCREASE WOULD ACCOMPANY
IT ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A -RA/-SHRA CHANCE. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT A SMALL -RA/-SHRA FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF WARMING
HIGHS/LOWS FROM BELOW NORMAL TUE TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 08.15Z HRRR INDICATES THESE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LAST OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES PAST THE AREA.
UPSTREAM RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE VFR CEILINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE WINDS
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...SPINNING ACROSS WI. SOME QG CONVERGENCE WITH
THE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...STRONGEST IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS
EASTERN WI. MOISTURE/CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...MOSTLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8-9 C/KM UP TO
700 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOSTLY CO-
LOCATED WITH A 100 MB DEEP SATURATED LAYER. VERY DRY SUB
CLOUD/INVERTED-V...WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR ENHANCED WIND GUSTS IF
YOU COULD PUT A BETTER PRECIPITATION LOAD THROUGH IT. AS IT
STANDS...EXPECT THE FORCING TO CONTINUE TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER FILLING IN.
PLACEMENT OF THE LIFT/SATURATION FAVORS WI FOR THE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES POINT TO MOSTLY SNOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTH OF
I-94 AND UNDER AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS...WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM
-2 C EARLY THIS MORNING...TO -9 C BY 12Z SAT. ADD LIGHT SFC WINDS TO
THE MIX AND A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWS IN THE
20S TO UPPER TEENS.
THE HIGH QUICKLY SLIPS EAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KICKING
UP AND STRONG WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS. A WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCROACHING ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET/850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSES INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
SAT...PERSISTING SUNDAY MORNING...AND EXITING EAST/SOUTHEAST SUN
EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES WITH THIS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE FRONT END. STRONG WARMING SUGGESTS
FULL/PARTIAL MELTING...WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN/DEVELOPS IN WESTERN WI. SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CLOSE TO A DEEP ENOUGH/COLD ENOUGH LAYER FOR
REFREEZE TO SLEET. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET POINT TO AN ISOLATED THUNDER RISK. ALL
IN ALL...RAIN- FREEZING RAIN-SLEET ALL LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH SNOW A
GREATER THREAT FARTHER NORTHEAST. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ICING...MOSTLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES...AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL COULD RESULT IF
ROAD TEMPS CAN COOL ENOUGH. IMPACTS TO SUNDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
GFS/ECMWF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD BUILDING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH A SFC HIGH MEANDERING OVER THE REGION ON TUE...AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY MID WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS WILL SEE A
CORRESPONDING BUMP UP...WARMING FROM AROUND -8 C AT 00Z TUE...TO
NEAR +6 C BY 00Z FRI. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TO...OR EVEN
ABOVE THE EARLY/MID APRIL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 08.15Z HRRR INDICATES
THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
LAST OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES PAST
THE AREA. UPSTREAM RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. AFTER
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE VFR CEILINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1019 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
AS EXPECTED...BOUNDARY SETTING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AIR FUNNELING INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON THE
SHORES OF NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED
ALONG WITH SOME FAIR STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED AS WELL.
STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER.
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 INDICATED A 30 TO 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR
INDICATED 6 TO 10 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECTED TO SEE...OR AT LEAST I
HOPE. WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECTATIONS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAUPACA...SHAWANO...BROWN...
OUTAGAMIE...WINNEBAGO...CALUMET AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW. PARTS OF MANITOWOC AND BROWN
COUNTIES COULD SEE WIDE RANGES OF SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF BOTH COUNTIES.
ROAD TEMPERATURES LATE THIS MORNING WERE NEAR 40. HOWEVER...AIR
TEMPERATURES AT GREEN BAY DROPPED TO 30...SO SOME COOLING OF THE
ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW FALLING. ALWAY
TOUGH TO GAUGE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL STICK TO AREA ROADS.
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWS FROM NEAR/JUST E OF AIG...SSEWD THROUGH EZS...TO ATW
AND THE FAR SW SIDE OF THE GRB AREA...TO CALUMET AND WRN MANITOWOC
COUNTIES. BUT THE SNOWS HAVE MAINLY BEEN W OF THIS AREA THUS FAR.
ALTHOUGH ROADS MAY BRIEFLY GET SLICK IN THIS AREA AS THE SNOW
BEGINS THIS MORNING...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD WARM QUICKLY NOW THAT
THE SUN IS UP AND SNOW RATES WL PROBABLY BE LOW ENOUGH THIS
MORNING TO LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THE CONCERN IS FOR
THIS AFTN...WHEN COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS NOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN/ONTARIO SURGES SWWD INTO THE AREA. THAT WL PROBABLY
GENERATE ENOUGH COOLING TO TAKE AIR TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30-32F
RANGE...AND GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL RATES...THAT COULD LEAD TO
AT LEAST SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADS IN ADDITION TO
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. WL UPDATE THE FCST/SPS WITH THESE
IDEAS...BUT SINCE THE REAL IMPACT WOULD BE FOR THE AFTN
COMMUTE...WL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO WATCH SITN DEVELOP A LITTLE
LONGER BEFORE COMMITTING TO AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
SNOW TODAY...THEN MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AMPLITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS PEAKING...WITH A RIDGE NR
THE WEST COAST AND A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE MAIN CHANGE THAT
WL OCCUR DURING THE FCST PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE
POSITIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER GREENLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
THAT WL DRAW THE CORE OF THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE ERN CONUS
TROF INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP. MOST
OF THE CONUS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN STREAM...WHICH
THOUGH WEAK...WL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY.
TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MODERATE...FINALLY REACHING AOA NORMAL
LEVELS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS TO END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SORTING OUT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH COMPLEX SML
SCALE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA TDA. LEAD AREA OF PCPN HAS BEEN
ADVANCING EWD A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT IS NOW ABOUT
1/2 WAY INTO THE FCST AREA. THE SNOWFALL WAS PICKING UP ACRS THE
W...WITH 1-2SM VSBYS COMMON.
LEAD BAND OF SNOW WL SHIFT INTO ERN WI...THEN PROBABLY THIN/COME
TO A HALT AS MID-LVL IMPULSE NEARS THE AREA FM THE NW. THAT WL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP SFC WAVE ON COLD FRONT SAGGING
SWD THROUGH THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SIGNIFICANT MESO-SCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO FORM NR THE
FRONT/APEX OF THE WAVE AS IT SHIFTS SSE THIS AFTN. FURTHERMORE...
PCPN NR THE WV IS LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE...WITH RAP/NAM
GENERATING 200-400 J/KG MUCAPES. THAT COULD EVEN YIELD SOME
LGT/THUNDER. SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW
WITH THE BAND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME 3-6 INCH TOTALS WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE THOSE SNOWS WL OCCUR. AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WL BE LIMITED...PROBABLY ONLY A
COUNTY OR TWO WIDE. AND MODELS WERE NOT ALL IN SYNCH WITH WHERE
IT/S LOCATION. ACTUALLY DREW UP AN EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY FOR A
BAND FM SHAWANO COUNTY SWD TO WINNEBAGO/CALUMET. BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH IT YET AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD
IT MORE E FM GRB-MTW AND OTHER MODELS WERE FARTHER W ACRS ERN
MARATHON/PORTAGE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS QUESTIONS ON THE IMPACT OF THE
SNOW. METRO-MODEL PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE FCSTS INDICATE ROADS
SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABV FREEZING BY AFTN...LIKELY LIMITING ANY
ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS TO JUST A SLUSHY BUILD-UP WHERE SNOW
FALLS HEAVILY ENOUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOW VSBYS IN THE HEAVY
SNOWSHOWERS COULD BE A FACTOR INCREASING THE IMPACT ON TRAVELERS.
THIS SITN WL BE BETTER HANDLED LIKE A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE EVENT
RATHER THAN A TYPICAL WINTER SNOW EVENT. RADAR NOT YIELDING AND
SOLID CLUES AS TO THE LCN OF THE SNOW BAND YET...SO OPTED TO RE-
ISSUE THE SPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITN ON
RADAR. MAY YET POST AN ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING IF THE LOCATION
OF THE SNOW BAND CAN BE PINNED DOWN WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE.
LAKE-EFFECT WL CONT IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT TNGT.
TRAJECTORIES NOT IDEAL...BUT BUMPED UP AMOUNT A BIT FROM PREV
FCST. OTHERWISE...QUIETER WX EXPECTED LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT
SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE END OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK...WHEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND BREAKS
DOWN...FINALLY ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT CLIPPER TRAVERSES THE REGION.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...THETAE ADVECTION RAPIDLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE STATE. DRY AIR
AIR BELOW 750MB WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SATURATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PTYPE WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS ALL SNOW WITH AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE BY 12Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR WILL BE SURGING IN ALOFT BY
THIS TIME...WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL WI. THIS TREND WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN WI NEAR
THE U.P. BORDER. AS A RESULT...AREAS OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WI
WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL CAPPED AT AROUND
AN INCH OR TWO. FAR NORTHERN WI COULD SEE HIGHER ACCUMS IN THE 2 TO
3 INCH RANGE. AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE DAY...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY 00Z MON. PERHAPS
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE BACK INTO FAR N-C WI ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THE UPPER
TROUGH...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY/BLUSTERY DAY
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI. ONLY LOOKING AT MINOR
ACCUMS THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WILL
SEE THE START OF A WARMING TREND...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS COLDER OVER EASTERN WI THAN FARTHER WEST. CONTINUED DRY
THROUGH NEXT FRI WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY TURNING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016
EXPECT A BAND OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND SETTING
UP ACRS THE AREA...FLANKED BY IFR/LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
W AND E. PLACEMENT OF POOREST CONDITIONS IS STILL IN DOUBT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ031-
037>039-048>050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ010>013-018>021-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE PACIFIC STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ONE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE SECOND LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER WITH MORE
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF YET
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW CONTINUED TO SWIRL JUST OFF THE NRN
BAJA/FAR SRN CA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WAS READILY SEEN IN THE
00Z PLOT DATA AS WELL AS IR/VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS. LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INLAND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IN THE FAVORED NE QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW
AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE. THE LATEST 00Z SAN DIEGO RAOB
SHOWED PWAT VALUES UP TO NEARLY ONE INCH...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED
MARINE LAYER THAT HAD DEEPENED TO ALMOST 700MB. LATEST NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO SWING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN LOW CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE JUST INLAND OVER FAR NRN BAJA
BY 12Z...AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHOWERS START TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
ACROSS MOST OF SERN CA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SPREADING QUICKLY INTO SWRN
AZ BY SUNRISE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
SUCH AS HRRR AND WRF. WE EXPECT LITTLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TONIGHT...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
NOON OR SO. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR POPS/WX/SKY BUT
OVERALL LOOK TO HAVE GOOD TRENDS AND APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RATHER VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW SITUATED ROUGHLY 400 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO CONTINUES MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST
TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MAINLY CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
COVERAGE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE BAJA
COAST WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL FIRST MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SET OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...LIKELY
FOCUSING INITIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...BUT THEN MOVING
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 18Z. HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE NEARLY ALL THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER A HALF AN INCH.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
OVERALL MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
AID IN UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO BY 06Z
MONDAY AND THUS MOSTLY ENDING RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THE
TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS MONDAY/TUESDAY
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S AND WITH IT FOLLOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT...BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES LOOK BEST FOR MUCH OF MONDAY WITH
CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE
AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL...COOLING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
FORECAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAYS TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. IN OTHER WORDS...AN
EQUAL NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARGUE FOR A MORE NORTHERN AZ TRACK.
THEREFORE PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE MODEST AND SHADED TOWARD THE
LOWER SIDE...MEANING 20-30 PERCENTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE
DEEPER SOLUTIONS WORK OUT...SNOW LEVELS COULD POTENTIAL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...WITH JUST SOME MID-LEVEL SCT-BKN
CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG...AND MOIST
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LIKELY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THEM
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD COVER WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HEATING...THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS
MINIMIZED.
CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 10K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE 4-6K FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
INTO THE 2-3K FOOT RANGE (PERHAPS EVEN LOWER AT KIWA AND KSDL)...BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE 3-5 MILE
RANGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN PASSES
THROUGH. 8-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY (IN THE 5-8 KT RANGE) TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 12-16 KT RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THREAT FOR LOW CIGS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RISES ARE SEEN.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD BOTH THE SE CA TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER HAS CREPT
INTO THE MIX...AND VCTS WAS ADDED TO THE KIPL TAF TIL 08Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE 3-5K FOOT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH BEFORE LIFTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL TONIGHT TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE
REGION ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AS WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE
70S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING
WELL UP INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN THE 25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT
RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MOSTLY LIKELY SUNDAY.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1025 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE INLAND MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT SATURDAY...BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES WSW OF SAN
DIEGO. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN
GREATEST ACROSS THE EAST BAY WHERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AND A DEEP
LAYER OF MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER CA. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.03"...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 1.15" FROM
THE 12Z SOUNDING BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS FOCUS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
SAN FRANCISCO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SF BAY AREA AND INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE INLAND
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM THE DIABLO RANGE SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO
COUNTY AND EASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. THE 00Z NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NAPA COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL
THEN TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE DESERT SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK INLAND ON MONDAY
ALONG A TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT UPPER LOW.
THUS...PRECIP POTENTIAL ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SF BAY AREA AND LOCALLY FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:25 PM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY MERGE AND FORM AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTH BAY AREAS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE AIR
REMAINS AT OR NEAR SATURATION COUPLED WITH WEAK LOWER LEVEL
COOLING FORECAST TONIGHT EXPECT PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SPOTTY WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO LATE SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. PATCHY IFR NEARBY IS A
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR. HOWEVER PATCHY IFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LARGER WEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 PM PDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS....SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN FRANCISCO. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE INLAND MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY END BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT SATURDAY...BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES WSW OF SAN
DIEGO. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN
GREATEST ACROSS THE EAST BAY WHERE SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE PICKED
UP MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CA/MEXICO BORDER AND A DEEP
LAYER OF MOIST AIR REMAINS OVER CA. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.03"...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 1.15" FROM
THE 12Z SOUNDING BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS FOCUS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
SAN FRANCISCO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SF BAY AREA AND INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER THE INLAND
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FROM THE DIABLO RANGE SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO
COUNTY AND EASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. THE 00Z NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NAPA COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL
THEN TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
THE DESERT SW. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK INLAND ON MONDAY
ALONG A TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT UPPER LOW.
THUS...PRECIP POTENTIAL ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...WE CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SF BAY AREA AND LOCALLY FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INCREASE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AND CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:38 PM PDT SATURDAY...A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW 300 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERY WX TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
CONSOLIDATES SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST 4 AM TO 8
AM SUNDAY (7 AM TO 8 AM BEING THE LAST HOURLY OUTPUT OF THE LAST
MODEL RUN).
KHAF AND KSTS REPORT OFF AND ON IFR CIGS IN RECENT HOURS; ELSEWHERE
IT`S BEEN VFR/MVFR AREA-WIDE. CLOUD LAYERS AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWED NIGHT-TIME
COOLING THUS HELPING TO EXTEND VFR/MVFR INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE AIR MASS BEING AT OR NEAR SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
SINCE WEAK COOLING IS FORECAST AT 925 MB AND 850 MB LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY IFR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR. PATCHY IFR NEARBY IS A
POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR. HOWEVER PATCHY IFR IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LARGER WEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1147 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED EARLY
EVENING WINDS AND FIRE WX GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THRU
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUN EVENING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
KCOS AND KPUB AREAS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1021 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
UPDATED EVENING POPS TO REFLECT RECENT RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED EARLY
EVENING WINDS AND FIRE WX GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...SPRING-TIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...
CO IS SITTING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A
FEW DRIFTING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF EL PASO COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. HRRR RUNS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONTDVD AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET OR A TAD HIGHER...SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ABOVE THIS LEVEL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER STORMS ARE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY...AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN LOCAL AREAS THIS
EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A DECLINE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND LOOKING FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS...THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE.
NEXT UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE AND WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD START TO PULL AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON...ADVECTING HIGHER DEW POINTS WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONCE AGAIN...HIGHER
PEAKS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (ABOVE 10-11KFT)...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SEE SOME RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR THE SE
MTS/PLAINS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
...COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND INTO
PIKES PEAK REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AS
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE COLDER AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND ARE NOT AS COLD
AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN
0C AND -2C BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINING
AOA 8000-9000 FEET. WITH THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC-H7
FLOW...GREATEST QPF CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCHES WATER EQUIV PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH 1 TO 3 TENTHS OVER AND NEAR THE REST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RAMPART RANGE...WET AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
AND A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE SW MTS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...COULD
SEE A FEW SLUSHY INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD...RATON MESA AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AND INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR TELLER
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE
COLDER AIR IS A TAD FASTER OR DEEPER...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EITHER WAY...THE MONDAY MORNING MORNING
COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND HEADING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SOLAR HEATING AND SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MINOR WAVES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...THOUGH AGREE ON POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. COULD EVEN SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER...
LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING WINDY
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE EASTERN COLORADO. AS ALWAYS...TIME WILL
TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MTN AREAS MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 10 KFT. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DROPPING CIGS INTO THE MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH -RA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
440 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...BREEZY ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
.CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN SEVERAL
INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S COASTAL NE FL. EXPECT A SLOW
TEMP FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
.NEAR TERM...TODAY-TONIGHT...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES EARLY THIS
MORNING IS NOW POSITIONED N OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR VEERING
FLOW...WITH LATEST JAX VWP PROFILE SHOWING NNE TO NE WINDS 15-20
KT AT 1-2 KFT. A 700 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE NERN GULF TO THE
SERN U.S. COAST BY LATER TODAY...WITH GFS AND RAP MODEL SHOWING A
500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN FL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING A MORE DOMINATE NE AND THEN E...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S CENTRAL CWA AND LOWER
70S TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
W WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTN AFTER A MOSTLY
SUNNY EARLY MORNING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND HAVE
INDICATED MINIMAL POPS (AROUND 10-20 PERCENT) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. SHOULD BE BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ELY WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH...ABOUT 10-15 MPH INLAND.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MID LEVELS NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST
MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN. LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO VEER WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING SELY FLOW DOMINATING OVER NE FL AND SSE OVER SE GA PORTION.
MAY SEE OCCASIONS OF BROKEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME BUT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE FCST. SOME BRIEF LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH VERY
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SO KEEPING POPS AOB 10
PERCENT ATTM. MAY ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY INLAND FOG BUT NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME AS VSBY GENERALLY STAYS ABOVE 3 MILES. LOWS
WILL BE MORE MILD WITH LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT THE COAST UNDER LIGHT E TO SE FLOW.
MONDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLC WELL EWD RESULTING IN PREVAILING
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWER 80S INLAND AND
AROUND 75 TO 80 ALONG THE COAST...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS
BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH FROM THE SE WITH A WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ANTICIPATED.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON MON NIGHT AND TUES...EXITING THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUES
NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUES AND
TUES EVENING. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
MON NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE LIKELY PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
DESPITE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA ON TUES MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY TUES AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST FL.
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TUES
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON TUES NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND FORCING WEAKENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW/MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
TROUGHS ALOFT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL STALL...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS ENERGY MAY COMBINE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE FROM
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST GA. HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL
FL. A WAVE OF SHOWERS MAY THEN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST GA TO THE 60-65 RANGE
IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURS AND
FRI...RESULTING IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURS AND
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THURS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRI. WE EXPECT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH FRI EVENING...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
WILL USE THE MODEL BLEND FOR THURS AND FRI THAT PAINTS SCATTERED
POPS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION...BUT POPS MAY BE RAISED FOR THURS NIGHT
AND FRI IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. A
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY AND CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
STATES. HIGHS THURS AND FRI WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AND AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S FOR INLAND
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL STORM SPINNING UP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD LEAVE OUR REGION WITHIN A DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH DRY WEATHER OVERSPREADING OUR REGION BY
FRI NIGHT. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WOULD PREVAIL IN THIS
SCENARIO...WITH HIGHS NEAR MID-APRIL CLIMO (GENERALLY IN THE 70S)
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WITH LOCAL CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THE SREF MODEL SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (ABOUT 2-3 KFT)
AFTER ABOUT 19Z/20Z BUT CHANCE TOO LOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO
INCLUDE FOR THE COASTAL TAFS. WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY NE AROUND
12Z- 15Z...BECOMING ELY THEREAFTER AT 10-15 G20KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE AND THEN E TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND
15-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT...JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA. SCEC IS
HEADLINED FOR THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THOUGH WITH
SOME DECREASE BY MONDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AND
SOUTH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BUT LIKELY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN ANOTHER NORTHEAST SURGE OF WIND
APPEARS LIKELY ON WED INTO THU...BUT ACTUAL SPEEDS STILL IN
QUESTION AND TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
RIP CURRENTS: EXPECT ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED SURF FROM BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...BUT WIND
SPEEDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH...AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED. ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AND TUES
REGION-WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 55 80 59 / 0 0 10 20
SSI 67 62 74 64 / 0 10 10 10
JAX 73 58 79 61 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 73 63 76 63 / 20 10 10 0
GNV 76 56 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 77 57 82 60 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
MIGHT SEE SOME SUN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THAT SYSTEM WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AND BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
BRIEF WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE POSITIVE
MUCAPE SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEN MUCAPE
GOES TO ZERO AFTER 03Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END NORTH TO
SOUTH ON MONDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF BY MONDAY RANGES FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WEST OF A WRAY TO TRIBUNE LINE AND LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE EAST OF THAT LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY BUT MUCH COOLER ON
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGERING AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TOO
HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF A SPECIFIC DISCRETE SHOWER
TO PASS OVER EITHER TAF SITE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN
FOR THE GLD TAF THROUGH 08Z.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING SO HAVE PUT IN
A VCSH AFTER 02Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
At 00z Sunday a weak 500mb trough was located over eastern
Colorado and southwest Kansas. Further west an upper low was
located just off the southern California coast. Another better
defined upper level trough was moving east across south central
Canada. A surface and 850mb trough extended from southeast
Colorado to a cold front which was located in south Dakota. +17 to
+20c 850mb temperatures were observed at 00z Sunday near this
trough axis. Southerly 850mb winds at 40 to 50 knots across Texas
and Oklahoma were drawing higher dew points northward towards
south central Kansas. Surface dew points earlier this evening
across western Oklahoma were in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
Immediate short term concern is if it will precipitate this evening.
Satellite and observations show some mid level clouds working in from
the southwest. This is in association with a weak wave that will pass
over later tonight. The HRRR is fairly aggressive, while the ARW is
fairly conservative. Observations show there isn`t much moisture with
this system, so would rather side with the drier solution. I do have
slight pops across west-central Kansas tonight. Even if it did rain,
we are talking about very light accumulations (only a few hundredths).
Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will drift over the region this
afternoon and tonight. With the clouds and downslope winds, overnight
lows will be on the mild side - upper 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2016
A cold front will work through the region tomorrow. Ahead of this front,
downslope flow is expected, and very warm temperatures are likely across
the OK border - low to mid 80s. To the north, low to mid 70s are expected.
There could be elevated fire weather conditions across far southwest
Kansas, however, winds look marginal at this time. Otherwise, have pops
ramping through Sunday night and into Monday morning as upslope/isentropic
lift develops. The highest pops will be along the OK border, where the
lift is stronger along. Severe weather is becoming more unlikely as
the warm sector along with resultant cape is displaced to the southeast
and south. There is some mucape forecast, however, upscale growth could
limit hail potential. To add, the ECMWF is conservative on mucape while
the NAM is higher. I think quarter size hail would be pushing the upper
end of the hail size envelope. Beyond Monday, a dry forecast is expected.
Warm air advection and lee troughing will resume. Attention the turns
to the end of the week. This is our next chance for precipitation. A
large trough is forecast with moderate dewpoints ahead of said system.
The ECMWF has this feature spinning with considerable moisture advection
associated with it. QPF from the model is impressive and over 5" across
far western Kansas. Something to watch. The basic ingredients for severe
is there, however, significant cloud cover is also forecast from the
ECMWF. This may limit instability overall... small mesoscale details
are still unknown. Again, something to watch. It`s Spring and doesn`t
take much to generate a tstorm across Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
An area of mid level clouds will cross western Kansas overnight
as a weak upper level disturbance crosses the Central Plains. A
few sprinkles or even an isolated shower will also be possible but
given such a low probability of this to occur will not include
this in the near 06z tafs. Gusty south winds at near 20 knots at
06z Sunday will decrease to around 10 knots between 09z and 12z as
a surface trough axis crosses western Kansas. A cold front will
then drop south across western Kansas during the day on Sunday. As
this front passes a westerly wind at 10 to 15 knots will shift to
the north and increase to 15 to near 20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 80 41 57 / 10 10 60 60
GCK 49 78 42 57 / 20 10 60 70
EHA 49 82 41 52 / 10 10 60 60
LBL 50 85 44 53 / 10 10 60 60
HYS 50 73 42 59 / 10 0 30 30
P28 53 84 49 57 / 10 10 70 60
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SPLIT FLOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT HAS FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR ATWOOD AND HILL CITY.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES AND TD HAVE BEGUN RECOVERING
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE SUPPORTED WEAK CAPE
VALUES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 800 J/KG OF MU CAPE. LATEST RAP (AND NAM) ALSO
SHOW CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDING OVER OUR CWA WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. MOST IMPRESSIVE CU FIELD IS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND
HIGHER TERRAIN COLORADO AND THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT AND THIS COULD ACT AS A SECONDARY
REGION OF INITIATION. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILES AND BETTER
FORCING EAST OF CWA BY TIME THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...EXPECTATION
IS THAT ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AID IN INCREASING COVERAGE IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL APART WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FALLING APART OR MOVING EAST OF
OUR CWA BY 06Z AND I SHOWED THIS TREND IN POPS/WX.
SUNDAY...FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA RESULTING IN A LARGER N-S TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY THAN
TODAY (60S NORTH...UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN COLORADO THAT COULD BEING TO SHIFT INTO
OUR CWA IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TRAILING SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES A
PUSH SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT GOING INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW FROM
THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOCUS OF ANY
POTENTIAL RW/TRW ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS W/
SOME OVER NORTHERN ZONES. TREND IS FOR PRECIP TAPERING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SYSTEMS PUSH AWAY...BUT ONLY FOR CHANCE POPS. THE MENTION
OF THUNDER IS ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG FRONT.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK CONTINUES ON AN EASTWARD TREK OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ALSO
TREKS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ON THRU SATURDAY...WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...MODELS BRING STRONG UPPER LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE FRONT RANGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT DOES NOT
SET UP UNTIL LATE FRIDAY ON INTO SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE. DO EXPECT SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO TRAINING OF MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...BUT DRY AIR DOES BEGIN TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LOW OFFSET A BIT WEST FROM SURFACE
COMPONENT. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN
WESTERN ZONES GOING INTO SATURDAY...WITH ALL PRECIP SHIFTING EAST OF
AREA GOING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
BETWEEN EARLY/END WEEK SYSTEMS. LOOKING FOR A RANGE IN THE 70S AND
U50S INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO START OFF THE WEEK AND TREND MAINLY
INTO THE 40S FOR THE REMAINDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF A SPECIFIC DISCRETE SHOWER
TO PASS OVER EITHER TAF SITE...ESPECIALLY AS THEY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN
FOR THE GLD TAF THROUGH 08Z.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING SO HAVE PUT IN
A VCSH AFTER 02Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW AT H25 ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NW FLOW OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF
THE JET WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD ON MON WITH STRONGEST FORCING AND
SFC LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. WEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND NW WINDS AT
H85 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON MONDAY. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS OVER
WEST HALF OF CWA ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO H7. IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY
KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. THOUGH A FEW
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW MAY OCCUR THERE...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO INCREASE MON EVENING ALONG
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
SFC-H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN.
COLDEST AIR LAGS THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW MON NIGHT. COULD BE A QUICK FEW INCHES THOUGH IN THE EVENING AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BY TUE...STRONGEST JET CORE RIDES AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH RISING HEIGHTS SPREADING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERMAL TROUGH AT
H85 /-10C TO -11C/ STILL HAS TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS IN BLYR BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND EVENTUALLY SW IN THE AFTN
AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H5 /NEAR -30C/ HEADING NORTH AND EAST
OVER CANADA SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR TO A MINIMUM.
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY FOCUS A QUICK MOVING BATCH OF LGT SNOW INTO
MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT JET STREAK AND
H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS OWING TO THE DECENT H85 TEMP GRADIENT FM
EASTERN DAKOTAS TO LK SUPERIOR /+14C IN SD TO -6C OVER LK SUPERIOR/
WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE SNOW. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEGATIVES. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR WEST LATE TUE NIGHT. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON WED ACROSS THE
CWA. WARMER AIR AT SFC WORKS IN BY WED AFTN WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
PAST 40 DEGREES.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA ACCROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER 570DM THU/FRI
INTO SAT. H85 TEMPS +8C TO +10C BY THAT TIME SUGGEST TEMPS AWAY FM
LAKE MODERATION SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 50S THU AND LIKELY WELL INTO
60S FRI/SAT. MAIN SFC LOW STAYS OUT OVER PLAINS THU/FRI/SAT WHILE
SFC RIDGE OVER QUEBEC RIDGES BACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. RESULT
IS S/SE SFC FLOW THAT MAY TEMPER WARMING A TOUCH OVER CNTRL AND
EASTERN CWA BUT THAT WOULD BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN. RIDGING
ALOFT HOLDS SO THAT THERE IS NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND WED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR...AGAIN...THOUGH TYPICALLY
WITH THIS TYPE OF WARM/DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER REGION...AFTN
DWPNTS/RH VALUES END UP LOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND IN TURN PROBABLY
ONLY LOOKING AT GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO RIVER/STREAM
LEVELS. ALL THE WHILE...AS SNOW BEGINS TO LEAVE AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN...ATTN WILL TURN TO FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY CMX AND SAW.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AT SAW BY LATE
MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. SRLY FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR LOWER CIGS AT SAW WITH IFR PERSITING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL MORE LIKELY KEEP IWD/CMX IN THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ250-251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER LOW ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTN AND PULL DOWN ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER
AIR REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH
WINDS. THE FRONT ENTERS NRN NEB LATE TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN NEB
SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MIGHT PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS...HRRR AND RAP HOLD K
INDICES BELOW 30C SUGGESTING NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM IS THE
BULLDOG WITH K INDICES OVER 30C. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO JUST THE 40S
IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN NEB HOLDING LOWS IN THE
30S. RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES. SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH PRODUCING LOWS
IN THE 20S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH ONLY THE 50S.
VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING WITH A H850MB MIXING RATIO
AROUND 2 G/KG. THIS WOULD PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ABOVE
FREEZING.
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EVENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS IS INDICATED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS. THIS IS A SOLID
INDICATOR OF RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES. A DRY LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WARMING TRENDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PROBLEM WITH THE FCST IS WHEN AND WHERE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA. BOTH MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ESPECIALLY IN THE ECM
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 TO 50 KT WINDS AT H850MB AND
500MB IN THAT MODEL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY.
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS BUT AN UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND FLOOD THE FCST AREA WITH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OR SHEARS OUT IS
UNKNOWN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS ECM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GEF
MODEL SOLNS. LAST NIGHT THE ECM WAS FASTER.
THE FORECAST USES 30 TO 50 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND K
INDICES IN THE GFS AND ECM INCREASE TO 30C OR HIGHER SUPPORTING
TSTMS IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART EARLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SHOWERS
TONIGHT ARE HIGH BASED AND CAPABLE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
402 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER WAS NEAR
WINNIPEG...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF
LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER WAS NEAR
WINNIPEG...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF
LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL
LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
329 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HOWEVER WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT THIS TIME RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST HOWEVER BELIEVE
LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS 080-10KFT IN THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM
GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS
OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BR POSSIBLE AT INLAND SITES BEFORE DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY AND LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF PRECIP
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION FOR
TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PL/SLEET...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR OF NW PA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...NO BETTER CONFIDENCE
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN HOW THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL
TURN OUT. RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING
THE EVENING. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
BY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER NIGHTFALL.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP AS OF THIS TAF
ITERATION...BUT HIGH CIRRUS IS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE
THE LOW CLOUDS DO MATERIALIZE. TOMORROW...BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
AND BROKEN SKIES WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY MORE
MVFR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND CLOUD
DECKS LOWERING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE LATEST AVIATION AND MARINE
DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWERING AND THICKENING THE CLOUD
DECKS TONIGHT...DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL RECOVER TO MODERATE OR BREEZY BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTH TEXAS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER GRADIENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE...HOISTED SCA OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HRRR SUPPORTS 20 KT
COVERAGE AT TIMES. SCA WILL BE LOW END MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT
ENOUGH TO HOIST A FLAG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...H5 LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DIFFLUENCE
WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS SWEEPING EWD THROUGH EAST TEXAS...WHILE
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE THICK LOW CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SFC FOG FROM THICKENING. THE CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP THIN OUT THE LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS...REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S OUT WEST. NEXT PIECE OF THE H5 LOW BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE EDGE OF THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION...SIMILAR TO THE
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A COUPLE OF 500 MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEX FROM MON THROUGH WED. THE
PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
RGV LATE WED. THIS OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OR NORTHERN MEX THROUGHOUT THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON FRI AND SAT.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED WILL NOT BE MARKED BY
SIGNIFICANT CAA WITH A WARMER E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
PRETTY QUICKLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPS TO WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND REACHING
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7 AND WILL OPT FOR A
GENERAL 50/50 MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL NOT BE
VERY DEEP BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME LOW
END POPS AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE WEAK FROPA. EXPECT MAINLY CLD
COVER TO BE THE ISSUE WITH THIS MOISTURE.
RUN TO RUN CONSITENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE
PRETTY STABLE AND MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF IS PRETTY GOOD ALSO. AS A RESULT THE OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...REMAINING ABOVE 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MIXING OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BRING PART OF THE LLVL JET
TO THE SFC TONIGHT...PUSHING WINDS TO NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED...RUNNING
5 FEET OR GREATER THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD OF THE MARINE FORECAST AS A MODERATE E TO
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE REGION ON WED. AM NOT SURE IF SCAS WILL BE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. SCEC WORDING MAY BE MORE LIKELY FOR LATE WED.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2016
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE STILL POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS TO KLSE JUST IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TO BE HONEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 4KFT DOES
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LOWER STUFF MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN MAYBE A SPRINKLE THROUGH SUNRISE AT
KLSE...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER TOWARD
MIDDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. KRST LOOKS TO STAY DRY. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND GUST 20-25 KNOTS...WITH
LINGERING THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEPARTING TOWARD SUNSET AS WINDS
START TO SETTLE DOWN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLY HEAVY THUNDER
STORM RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 88-D RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IN AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW CROSSING THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SW AZ. YUMA MARINE CORP AIR STATION HAS
ALREADY MEASURED 0.11 INCH OF RAIN...WHILE BLYTHE AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.04 INCH. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA BY MIDDAY
TODAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SEEING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL RATES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MU CAPE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE AZ...THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR
ANYONE THAT WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS FAR AS
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS...INHERITED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LARGE AND COLD PACIFIC TROF FINALLY MOVED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CA EARLY THIS MORNING. JETSTREAM WINDS INCREASED AND BECAME DIFFLUENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONE QUICK SHOWER OVER THE REMOTE
DESERT EAST OF IMPERIAL MEASURED 0.25 INCHES. THIS WAS NO SURPRISE
GIVEN THAT A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIP WATER WAS
MEASURED ON THE SAN DIEGO SOUNDING LAST EVENING. AT 2 AM A LINE OF
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER
NEAR IMPERIAL CA...NORTH INTO THE MOHAVE DESERTS OF SAN BERNADINO
COUNTY CA.
THE CENTER OF THIS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY JUST NORTH OF YUMA BY LATE MORNING
AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AND DIFFLUENT...I.E. VERY DYNAMICAL WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF AZ THROUGH MID-MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDER-
STORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN PINAL COUNTY...BETWEEN
PHOENIX AND TUCSON...DURING A SHORT TIME WINDOW BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE AND
INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24 EAST OF PHOENIX. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN ZONE 24
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEM...MEANING IT WILL GET STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO AZ MONDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX MONDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH CIGS BY MIDDAY
IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE. WX RADAR RETURNS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEFORE MIDDAY...RESULTING IN VCSH
COVERAGE FOR MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...AND
MORE STEADY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. LOWERING
CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBYS MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY LOWER...3
TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW POST-10/21Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER
INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE LATEST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS 5-7KFT REMAINING UNTIL PARTIAL
CLEARING TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. EARLY EVENING CIGS SHOULD LIFT
AOA 10KFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING WELL UP
INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE
25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
327 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RAIN HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
AS EARLY AS 16Z THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ENTERS NORTHERN
BAJA ON MONDAY EVENING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE TWO STORMS WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE STORM TRACK LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH A THIRD
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
THE STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS.
&&
AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z.
BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 10/14Z...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 5-8K FT AGL MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WEST OF
KTUS...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA AND SCATTERED -TSRA AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
10/15Z...THEN INCREASING SURFACE WIND...WITH GUSTY SLY/SWLY SFC WIND
AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS BETWEEN 10/17Z AND 11/03Z.
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DIMINISHING
SFC WIND AFT 11/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND THEN AGAIN
NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SOME SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD END AS SOME SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PERSISTING...GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 MPH
RANGE.
WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASE
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME TEMPS COULD
EVEN REACH 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ONCE THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
RADAR TRENDS...AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 6 PM. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR A VERY DRY LAYER TO PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...THINK LITTLE IF ANY WOULD REACH THE GROUND...WITH
PERHAPS JUST VIRGA. SO...JUST SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY OR AFTER 6 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL AFTER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD HAVE PEEKED INTO THE 30S /AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE TERRAIN/ FOR THE TERRAIN AND 40S
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER RATHER
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES WILL YIELD TO OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS WEST AND NORTH OF ALBANY
INITIALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVENTUALLY
THIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPES...PER COLLABORATION FROM WPC
WWD /WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WINTER WEATHER DESK/...THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREENS COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF WINTRY TYPE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY OVERNIGHT WITH 40-50KTS LOW
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THROUGH THE WET BULB PROCESSES...THE INITIAL
ONSET OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITION TOWARD SLEET THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AS
H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO +2C TO +4C...A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY. A CLOSER LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES AND THE SREF PRECIP-TYPE
PROBABILITIES...SEEMS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLEET/FZRA
WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z MONDAY. THE 21Z SREF HAD HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR FZRA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND
ADIRONDACKS AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE 03Z SREF IS NOW HALF THAT
AMOUNT. LIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT DROPPING TOO MUCH DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. A CLOSE COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES...DUE TO DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES AND NARROW WINDOW OF
WINTRY MIXTURE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ADIRONDACK REGION BEFORE THE TRANSITION.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE REGION IS WELL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AS ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SO SOME BRIEF
WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUGGESTED IN
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT AFD...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPSTREAM FRONT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AND DEVELOP WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT AND KEEP THE HIGH POPS FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE REGION WARM FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE GGEM/GFS/NAM SUGGESTING A BIT FASTER TIMING
WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO OUR WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION FOR
A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW TOWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH
AND PERHAPS CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. AS STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EITHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE TERRAIN OR ALL RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED. WITH SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...VALLEY TEMPS MAY TOUGH 50F WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED AND SOME COOLER UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A PERIOD FEATURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLOCKING AT UPPER LEVELS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD....A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY /FALLING AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES C/....SO
MINS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST EAST OF THE REGION...EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC NORTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALSO
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON JUST FAR AWAY THE FRONT DOES WIND UP
STALLING OUT. SKY COVER WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN WESTERN
AREAS...TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
TEMPS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S...AND LOWS STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE
IT ORIGINALLY APPEARED THAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WOULD
OCCUR...THIS IS NOW LESS CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
FORM UNDER THIS RIDGE AND DRIFT AND MEANDER CLOSE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS KEEPING THIS CUTOFF LOW CLOSE TO OUR REGION. SOME
GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THIS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS
QUITE A NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH NO RAIN AT ALBANY.
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS FEATURE IS TO OUR REGION...A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY...COOL...AND RAINY WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IF THIS STORM
DRIFTS AROUND JUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...IT WOULD
REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SKY COVER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MUCH
CLOUDIER IF THE STORM DOES REMAIN NEAR OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...WILL
GO WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED IF
IT APPEARS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS/RAIN BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. ASIDE FROM FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE...AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 KTS BY THE AFTN HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BKN-OVC AT 4-
6 KFT. WITH THE WARM FRONT STARTING TO GET CLOSE...THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST SITES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME RAINFALL
WILL BE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS /AFTER 09Z/ AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT KPSF/KGFL
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRECIP MOVING IN...CIGS LOOK TO LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS...AND PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR AS
WELL. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD...WHICH ENDS AT
12Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
TONIGHT TO 10-15 KTS...ESP AT KALB/KPSF...WHERE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
COULD BE AROUND 20 KTS. THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD END AS SOME SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-15 MPH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT OF 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-95 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOPING... AND STAYING ABOVE 50
PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIXTURE TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS
OF RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMTS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH TOTALS THROUGH
TUESDAY OF ONE HALF INCH...TO UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Warm advection and isentropic lift will increase today as a warm
front lifts N-NE across Illinois. Showers will likely be occurringat
SPI by 13z, with rain overspreading the remaining TAF sites
through CMI by 15z. Forecast soundings suggest cigs lowering to
MVFR category this afternoon. HRRR and RAP ceiling projections
show that KPIA and KBMI will have higher chances of seeing IFR
cigs during the afternoon, but all sites could see brief periods
of IFR ceilings this afternoon. Prevailing MVFR cigs will continue
into the evening hours along with scattered showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms, especially from KSPI to KDEC. Rain should
eventually come to an end for PIA and BMI before the end of this
TAF period, with showers continuing across the southern terminals
through 12z/11Apr.
The 12z ILX sounding shows LLWS criteria will continue this
morning, with 1800Ft winds at 50kts from the SW. Surface winds
will increase from the south at 18-22G32KT. As a cold front
approaches this evening, look for surface winds to veer into a
southwest to west direction with the FROPA, and wind speeds
decreasing to 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLE OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DRY WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. 14Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR THEREAFTER. SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL
HASTEN THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS
QUICKLY JUMP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY 18-19Z WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD LIKEWISE SURGE INTO THE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT. HI-RES GUIDANCE TRACKS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY 19-20Z AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF EMBEDDED
THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A 60+KT LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT PEAK
GUSTS CONSISTENTLY INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
BUMPED UP THE WINDS A FEW KNOTS THROUGH 16Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/MK
HYDROLOGY...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLE OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE DRY WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS. 14Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR THEREAFTER. SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL
HASTEN THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS
QUICKLY JUMP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY 18-19Z WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD LIKEWISE SURGE INTO THE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT. HI-RES GUIDANCE TRACKS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY 19-20Z AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF EMBEDDED
THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A 60+KT LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT PEAK
GUSTS CONSISTENTLY INTO THE 30-35MPH RANGE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
HYDROLOGY...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD
PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A POCKET OF WHAT
APPEARS TO BE GRAUPEL OR SLEET PER DUAL POL VARIABLES...IS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION BEYOND 12Z WILL BE ALL OR NEARLY ALL LIQUID
HOWEVER. WILL RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
K INDEX VALUES INDICATE SOME OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE AREA MAINLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A RESULT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO EXTREMELY MODEST INSTABILITY PROFILES.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AGREE RELATIVELY WELL WITH UPSTREAM NUMBERS
AND WERE USED WITH MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
DEFINITE POPS ARE MERITED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGHOUT PER K INDEX
VALUES PUSHING OR EXCEEDING 30 AT TIMES. AGAIN...AS INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY MODEST...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND ONGOING ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD ON SOME AREA RIVERS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS
DOWNWARD TO MAX TEMPS OWING TO INFLUENCE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
PATTERN CHANGE.
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CHANGE WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST...BUT
REMAINING AWAY FROM INDIANA. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS SHOW DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUPERBLEND IS ON BOARD
WITH DRY POPS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING GOOD LIFT. TIME HEIGHTS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA
BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.
DUE TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAINFALL LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE TRENDED TO VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS HIGH...JUST TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT A COUPLE OF SITES ALONG THE
WABASH...WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST BELOW FLOOD IN ACTION STAGE.
OHRFC RIVER ENSEMBLES...THE MEAN QPF OF WHICH LINE UP RELATIVELY
WELL WITH FORECAST QPF...SUGGEST THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE
WABASH...LOWER WHITE...AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE INTO
MINOR LOWLAND FLOOD...AND OTHER PORTIONS OF AREA WATERWAYS INTO
ACTION STAGE. THIS APPEARS QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SCENARIO. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT THAT LOWLAND
FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AREA WATERWAYS.
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY PER CURRENT
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ031-038>042-
047>049-055>057-064-065-072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SPLIT FLOW AT H25 ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NW FLOW OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF
THE JET WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT OVERHEAD ON MON WITH STRONGEST FORCING AND
SFC LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. WEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND NW WINDS AT
H85 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -9C WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON MONDAY. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS OVER
WEST HALF OF CWA ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO H7. IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY
KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. THOUGH A FEW
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW MAY OCCUR THERE...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL MENTION THE SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO INCREASE MON EVENING ALONG
MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
SFC-H85 TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN.
COLDEST AIR LAGS THOUGH...SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW MON NIGHT. COULD BE A QUICK FEW INCHES THOUGH IN THE EVENING AS
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
BY TUE...STRONGEST JET CORE RIDES AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH RISING HEIGHTS SPREADING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS SLIDES EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERMAL TROUGH AT
H85 /-10C TO -11C/ STILL HAS TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS IN BLYR BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND EVENTUALLY SW IN THE AFTN
AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H5 /NEAR -30C/ HEADING NORTH AND EAST
OVER CANADA SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR TO A MINIMUM.
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY FOCUS A QUICK MOVING BATCH OF LGT SNOW INTO
MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT JET STREAK AND
H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS OWING TO THE DECENT H85 TEMP GRADIENT FM
EASTERN DAKOTAS TO LK SUPERIOR /+14C IN SD TO -6C OVER LK SUPERIOR/
WILL ALSO HELP FORCE THE SNOW. LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEGATIVES. HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR WEST LATE TUE NIGHT. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON WED ACROSS THE
CWA. WARMER AIR AT SFC WORKS IN BY WED AFTN WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
PAST 40 DEGREES.
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA ACCROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ECMWF/GFS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER 570DM THU/FRI
INTO SAT. H85 TEMPS +8C TO +10C BY THAT TIME SUGGEST TEMPS AWAY FM
LAKE MODERATION SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 50S THU AND LIKELY WELL INTO
60S FRI/SAT. MAIN SFC LOW STAYS OUT OVER PLAINS THU/FRI/SAT WHILE
SFC RIDGE OVER QUEBEC RIDGES BACK ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. RESULT
IS S/SE SFC FLOW THAT MAY TEMPER WARMING A TOUCH OVER CNTRL AND
EASTERN CWA BUT THAT WOULD BE MOST NOTABLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN. RIDGING
ALOFT HOLDS SO THAT THERE IS NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND WED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR...AGAIN...THOUGH TYPICALLY
WITH THIS TYPE OF WARM/DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER REGION...AFTN
DWPNTS/RH VALUES END UP LOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND IN TURN PROBABLY
ONLY LOOKING AT GRADUAL SNOW MELT WITH LIMITED IMPACT TO RIVER/STREAM
LEVELS. ALL THE WHILE...AS SNOW BEGINS TO LEAVE AREAS OF UPR
MICHIGAN...ATTN WILL TURN TO FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ250-251-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ265-
266.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ241>244-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT 6 AM
CDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN
KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO
BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING. WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING
GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT 6 AM
CDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA...WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. MIX OF LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER VFR CIGS IN
KISN/KMOT WITH OCNL MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY SCT TO
BKN VFR AT KDIK/KBIS/KDIK THIS MORNING. WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASING
GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1002 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE 850-700MB FRONT. SOME OF THIS
IS STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. A
FEW HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE SHOWING UP ON THE KIWX RADAR
AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS SURGING NORTH AND CAUSING MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR ANY MIX IS EXPECTED TO BE
SMALL BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW
TO RAIN. LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. RADAR
SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON TIME. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS THAN EARLIER...IT IS STILL
VERY LIGHT. AT THIS TIME PRECIP IS STILL ALL SNOW TO OUR WEST BUT
AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT WE COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE TO ZR
BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST RAIN.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. RADAR
SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON TIME. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MORE LOCATIONS THAN EARLIER...IT IS STILL
VERY LIGHT. AT THIS TIME PRECIP IS STILL ALL SNOW TO OUR WEST BUT
AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT WE COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE TO ZR
BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST RAIN.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BR POSSIBLE AT INLAND SITES BEFORE DAWN. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY AND LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF PRECIP
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION FOR
TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PL/SLEET...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR OF NW PA. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...NO BETTER CONFIDENCE
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN HOW THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL
TURN OUT. RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING
THE EVENING. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
BY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER NIGHTFALL.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW
PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED FROM LATER TODAY
RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SUNSHINE WE ARE ENJOYING
NOW WILL BE A MEMORY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF
IS SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WE WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL...BY SOME 15-20 DEGREES. MAX
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM
THE NW MTNS TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE. THE 12/00Z GEFS RUNS SHOW ONE TO TWO SD PWAT ANOMALIES
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION 06Z TO 18Z MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THAT BOUNDARY
ARE HOW MUCH QPF AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WITH TEMPS VERY BORDERLINE FROM
THE SFC UP THROUGH 6 KFT AGL.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE 12Z TO 18Z IN THE LOWER SUSQ...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED QPFS BUT REMAIN
LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. SO GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE L-M 30S ALONG THE NEW YORK
BORDER TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS A CFRONT THROUGH PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE
ALONG IT ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS AS 00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR
TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES...
CARVES OUT A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS
THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/MIX OVER THE NW 1/4 OF
THE AIRSPACE AROUND OR AFTER 21Z.
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 00-12Z AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...MAKING
PASSAGE AT KRST AROUND 18Z AND KLSE BY 19Z. COULD SEE A SHRA OR
TWO AT KLSE IN THE 15-19Z TIMEFRAME WITH KRST EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CIG/VIS CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST SUN APR 10 2016
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM...THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE RATHER MOIST...AND COLD UPPER LOW THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY CAN BE SEEN ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD MOISTURE
FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING AOA 0.50 INCH OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
THE LATEST HRRR HI-RES MODEL IS SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF OUR CWA BY LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS
IN THE -17C TO -18C RANGE) WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MORE RAIN ONCE THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ALMOST AS STRONG AND COLD AS THE CURRENT STORM THAT IS AFFECTING OUR
REGION TODAY...RAINFALL CHANCES APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE LESS THAN
THE WITH THE CURRENT ONE...SINCE THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THAT THE CURRENT ONE
HAS...AS INDICATED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST
GEFS/GFS IVT FORECAST GRAPHICS. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM 21Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED
SO STILL COVERING BY MENTIONING VCTS IN AREA TAFS. VSBYS MAY ALSO
TEMPORARILY LOWER...3 TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 30 KNOTS IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS LIKELY...AT TIMES
SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY
EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TODAY. CIGS HAVE LIFTED FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO LOWER LEVEL CIGS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND
MID DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING BACK UP WELL INTO THE
80S...OR EVEN CLOSE TO 90...A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SE-WARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE...AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AZ...AT LEAST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-
25 PERCENT RANGE REGIONWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WIDEN
INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
OVER SE CA AND SW AZ. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD-
EXCELLENT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1129 AM MST SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLY HEAVY THUNDER
STORM RAIN IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 88-D RADAR IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BREAK
OUT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ IN AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SHOWER BAND...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW CROSSING THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SW AZ. YUMA MARINE CORP AIR STATION HAS
ALREADY MEASURED 0.11 INCH OF RAIN...WHILE BLYTHE AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.04 INCH. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
THIS MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GREATER PHX AREA BY MIDDAY
TODAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SEEING THE GREATEST
RAINFALL RATES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MU CAPE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...ACROSS SE AZ...THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE
HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS OUR CWA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARICOPA AND NW PINAL COUNTIES. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH
MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN...WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR
ANYONE THAT WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS FAR AS
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS...INHERITED
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE LARGE AND COLD PACIFIC TROF FINALLY MOVED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CA EARLY THIS MORNING. JETSTREAM WINDS INCREASED AND BECAME DIFFLUENT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ONE QUICK SHOWER OVER THE REMOTE
DESERT EAST OF IMPERIAL MEASURED 0.25 INCHES. THIS WAS NO SURPRISE
GIVEN THAT A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIP WATER WAS
MEASURED ON THE SAN DIEGO SOUNDING LAST EVENING. AT 2 AM A LINE OF
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WERE NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER
NEAR IMPERIAL CA...NORTH INTO THE MOHAVE DESERTS OF SAN BERNADINO
COUNTY CA.
THE CENTER OF THIS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY JUST NORTH OF YUMA BY LATE MORNING
AND BECOME NEGATIVE TILT AND DIFFLUENT...I.E. VERY DYNAMICAL WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF AZ THROUGH MID-MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDER-
STORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN PINAL COUNTY...BETWEEN
PHOENIX AND TUCSON...DURING A SHORT TIME WINDOW BETWEEN NOON AND 2
PM.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE AND
INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
END SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24 EAST OF PHOENIX. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN ZONE 24
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A DEVELOPMENTAL
SYSTEM...MEANING IT WILL GET STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO AZ MONDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX MONDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEARING IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A MUCH COLDER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. LATELY HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRIDAY`S TIMING...BUT
ARE STILL A LITTLE MIXED REGARDING DEPTH AND INTENSITY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE MEMBERS COMING
AROUND TO A DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM OVER AREA. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
DOWN BETWEEN 2-4KFT AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM 21Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED
SO STILL COVERING BY MENTIONING VCTS IN AREA TAFS. VSBYS MAY ALSO
TEMPORARILY LOWER...3 TO 5SM...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 30 KNOTS IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS LIKELY...AT TIMES
SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE EARLY
EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL CIGS REMAINING AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TODAY. CIGS HAVE LIFTED FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO LOWER LEVEL CIGS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND
MID DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG...AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE ENTIRE REGION
ON TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHLY ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS ALSO SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS (LOWER DESERT HIGHS RECOVERING WELL UP
INTO THE 80S) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE
25-45 PERCENT RANGE ON TUESDAY TO DROP INTO THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GOOD-EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW REPORTING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
301 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY A STRONGER AND UNSEASONABLY COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT (OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS)
SOCAL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM OUR STATE...WEAK MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
SPOTTY/LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN 1/4 OF
AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RELATIVELY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN...AS THEY DEPICT A 130+
KNOT JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONE
NOTABLE CHANGE TODAY SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN THEIR
DEPICTION OF HOW THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL FORM. OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...THEY DEPICTED A STRONG TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CYCLOGENESIS (MID-LEVEL) OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM IS EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. TODAY...THEY BOTH SHOW A CLOSED LOW AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST...WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA...THEN HAVING THE LOW REFORM AS IT DEPARTS THE REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK STARTS TO GET SAMPLED BY THE RAOB
NETWORK EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HOW "WRAPPED UP" THE SYSTEM LOOKS ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...THINK THE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATIMG THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM/DEPTH OF COLD AIR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN EVEN LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IF THE MODEL
DATA DOES INDEED TREND STRONGER IN LATER RUNS.
IN ANY EVENT...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE NORTH OF A EUREKA TO WILLOW CREEK LINE. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED PASSES AS WELL...AS FREEZING
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER/DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. -PD
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 3000 FEET
AND PREDOMINATELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP MARINE LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...N-NW WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN INCREASING TODAY AS A RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. N-NW WIND FLOW AND SHORT PERIOD
NW SEAS SHOULD START TO EASE UP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
WED AND PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS...MAINLY
FROM CAPE MENDO NORTHWARD. MAIN ISSUE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE
BUILDING LARGE STEEP SEAS AND PERHAPS BOUTS OF STRONG W-NW WINDS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE
DEVELOPING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW ON THU. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE
GENERATION REGION...WAVE PERIODS WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT. HOWEVER
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 18 TO 20 FT...BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 21
TO 25 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY FOR SURF MAY BE
NECESSARY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.Synopsis...
Showers continue in the north state thru Monday with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Mountain showers will likely continue
early this week with another round of showers over the entire
north state around mid week. Snow levels remain high for minimal
mountain travel impacts.
&&
.Discussion...
Low pressure area moving into Arizona will slowly continue to
move east. An area of thunderstorms over Lassen County is moving
southwest and may impact Plumas and Shasta Counties later this
afternoon and evening. Snow level will continue to be high and
near 8000 feet but may lower to near 7000 in heavier convection.
the HRRR indicates a good chance that showers will spread west and
into the north end of the valley this evening. Conditions over the
southern half of the CWA should mostly be dry but could see some
isolated showers and sprinkles.
A low along 135W will get sheared apart as it moves towards
Northern California. The southern end will form a low over
Southern California on Monday and help to continue to produce
showers over the northern end of the state...mostly over the
mountains.
On Tuesday a shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest and may
provide enough moisture and instability to bring some showers to
the far northern end of the State and the north end of the valley
and surrounding mountains.
A colder low pressure system will begin to moving into the
northern end of the state Wednesday night. Snow levels should fall
below major pass levels with this system and result in travel
impacts.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Colder system will continue to move across NorCal on Thursday with
precipitation across most of the area. Models still indicate
heaviest precipitation will fall over the mountains with snow
levels down to around 4000-4500 feet. This will likely cause
travel impacts through the day Thursday. System begins to shift
east Thursday night into Friday with only a few lingering mountain
showers. Ridging will then build in across the state with drier
weather, clearing skies, and a warming trend through the weekend.
Valley temperatures may be back into the 80s by Saturday. This
pattern also lends itself to some breezy northerly winds across
the Coastal Range and western side of the Valley. Have removed
precip chances from late Saturday into Sunday as it looks like
models have backed off on the next wave which will still be out
over the Pacific into early next week.
CEO
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers through late this evening, especially
across the NorCal mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.
MVFR/IFR low clouds may continue across Valley TAF sites into
Monday. South winds will remain 10 kts or less.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
157 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE
SOCAL BIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON
RADAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HITTING THE GAGES AT THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL MOVIE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SLO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO MOST OF SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING SOME OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO GET SOME
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEVELOPING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK DECENT. BOTH
THE NAM-WRF AND RAP SOUNDINGS LOOKED PROMISING FOR SOME
CONVECTION. THE NAM INDICATED LI READINGS TO AROUND -7 IN THE
VENTURA COUNTY MTNS AND AROUND -5 FOR THE SAN GABRIEL RANGE. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD HINDER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
KEEP FROM HEATING THE SURFACE. IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP S OF POINT
CONCEPTION...IT WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THEN DRIFTING SE INTO THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH
THE EXCEPTION NEAR A THUNDERSTORM WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH COULD
FALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT
BURN AREAS REMAINS VALID THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER IF
STORMS DO NOT FIRE UP IN A FEW HOURS...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS...MOSTLY WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DOWNTOWN
ALREADY REACHED 70 DEGREES WHILE MOST VALLEYS REMAINED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. IT WAS COOLER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST A FEW DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED OVER SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA
HAS ROTATED IN A NEGATIVE TILT OVER SRN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. THIS
NW TO SE AXIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NRN AND NE FACING SLOPES ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING UPPER
LOW...ANOTHER UPPER LVL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PAC.IN FACT...SOME SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IT WILL CUTOFF AND MOVE TOWARDS SAN DIEGO
AND NRN BAJA...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGHER
POPS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 500-700 MB.
HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE LOCAL ROAD
FLOODING IF ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP. THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE STORMS
COULD DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO TREND
HIGHER A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN EDDY
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD GIN UP A DEEP MARINE LAYER
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES OF LA/VTU AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES.
MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NW WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE CENTRAL COAST MOSTLY CLEAR. MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND LOMPOC AND VANDENBERG AFB.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A
DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN SBA COUNTIES
WEST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING
DRIZZLE...MIGHT BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREAS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDOWNER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ MTNS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE NEXT
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT BEFORE IT REACHES SLO COUNTY.
HAVE HEDGED BACK POPS ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THEN DIG SOUTH OVER
NEVADA. WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHREAL SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MOSTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES OF THE
VTU/LA COUNTY MTNS AND EASTERN SLO/SBA VALLEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THURSDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST DUE
TO SUNDOWNER WINDS. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MTNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FRI
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...10/18Z
AT 10Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 09Z- 17Z AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTY COAST 12Z-
17Z.
LAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...10/200 PM...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 54-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEK. WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)
SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOSTLY LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WITH MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY BURN
AREAS...(SPRINGS AND SOLIMAR BURN AREAS) WHICH ARE LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL VENTURA COUNTY. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A. COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SINCE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY...AROUND 1200 J/KG OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS AND
AROUND 1700 J/KG OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MTNS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LA/VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS TODAY...WITH LESS
CHANCE FOR COAST AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL TAKE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT POPS IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND ALL OF L.A. COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY...THEY WILL VARY
FROM SOME AREAS REMAINING DRY TO BETWEEN .10" TO A QUARTER
INCH...BUT SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OR AREAS AFFECTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO A HALF INCH...OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET AND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL TODAY ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING
ACROSS COAST AND VALLEY AREAS DUE TO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
CUTOFF AROUND SAN DIEGO OR NRN BAJA. THIS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE ADVERTISING EARLIER. THIS WILL
RESULT ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE VENTURA/L.A COUNTY MTNS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INITIALIZE THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL TOTALS...MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...AND
MORE LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING UNDER SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A
LITTLE WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RUN OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND
WILL COME IN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.
THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY IS THAT ALL MDLS NOW SHOW THURSDAYS STORM
PASSING HARMLESSLY TO THE NORTH (WELL TO THE NORTH) THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER AS A RESULT AND IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TELL THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT THE
WEATHER.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS A RIDGE SETS UP JUST
OFF THE COAST AND KEEPS THE SRN PORTION OF THE STATE UNDER DRY NW
FLOW. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS TEMPS THE EC IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE GFS. SINCE IT IS MID APRIL AND THE SUN WILL BE
PRETTY STRONG BIASED THE FCST TOWARDS THE WARMER EC.
&&
.AVIATION...10/18Z...
AT 10Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 09Z- 17Z AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA COUNTY COAST 12Z-
17Z.
LAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
BUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A FIFTEEN PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...10/830 AM...
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FLOW OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THOUGH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ROUGH SEAS... SMALL HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND WATERSPOUTS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 054-088-548. (SEE LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CK
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage for
this afternoon and evening mainly north of I-80. Latest HRRR is
showing a strong potential for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon north of Pyramid Lake with some heavier rainfall
amounts. This matches up well with the latest visible satellite
image that is showing clear skies over Lassen and Northern Washoe
Counties which will help to destabilize this afternoon with much
better solar heating that over the Reno-Carson-Tahoe area. The
stronger thunderstorms north of Reno will be capable of heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
Coverage of showers have diminished early this morning...but is
expected to increase again later today as heating and upper level
forcing combine to produce enough instability to drive showers and
a few thunderstorms. The upper low responsible for all of the
activity should drift east today from southern CA into AZ by later
tonight. This will lead to less instability for our area tonight
and Monday. For now...we will update to reduce coverage through
the morning hours then let coverage increase in the afternoon. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move over far southern California and Nevada today.
Moist wrap-around flow will bring some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to eastern California and western Nevada today.
Monday and Tuesday, the coverage of showers wanes as modest ridging
builds overhead. For mid to late week, a stronger and colder system
will bring breezy conditions with chances for rain and snow.
SHORT TERM...
A nice soaking rain was had since yesterday afternoon, with far
western Nevada and the Tahoe area hitting the jackpot with widespread
0.50" to 0.80" of precipitation. It was mainly rain below 7500-8000
feet around the region, although heavier precipitation did drag
down snow levels to between 6500 and 7000 feet for the Tahoe area
per spotter reports and CALTRANS cams (Echo Summit on Highway 50
was briefly slushy Saturday evening). Outside of the Reno-Tahoe
area, precip amounts were on the order of 0.20" to 0.40", tapering
to less than a tenth in central and southern Mono and Mineral
Counties.
This morning, precip coverage has dropped off to mainly isolated
light showers. For this afternoon through Monday, convective
coverage will be on the decline as upper forcing wanes and
convective development relies increasingly on residual moisture
and diurnal heating. Afternoon temperatures look to top out near
or even slightly above average today and Monday.
For late Monday night and Tuesday, I have lowered POP and re-
aligned the shower chances to the far northern (Lassen-northern
Washoe Counties) and southern-eastern portions (Mono-Mineral-
eastern Pershing/Churchill Counties) of the region. The NAM and
GFS do show very light QPF and high 700 mb moisture for other
areas of western NV Tuesday afternoon but it looks like just some
cumulus development with no apparent large-scale forcing and only
modestly above average temperatures. Snyder
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Main changes made to the forecast this cycle were to increase pops
slightly Wednesday night into Thursday morning and make a few minor
adjustments to snow levels. Overall the deterministic models are a
little better with coming together on a broad pattern evolution...
but there are still disagreements in the details.
The GFS and most of its ensemble members are now more progressive
early in the extended period with moving a trough into the region by
Thursday...but the ECMWF remains faster and more progressive with
this feature. The GFS and most of its ensemble members start to
develop a closed low by Friday morning while the ECMWF moves the
trough east and starts to build the ridge. These differences
continue to lead to a low confidence forecast regarding the details
in the extended period. Pops were raised in the far western part of
the forecast area for Wednesday night in deference to the ECMWF
while snow levels were raised slightly Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
We could also be looking at breezy conditions developing ahead of
the long wave trough late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given that
it is mid April the temperatures were allowed to rise a bit for
Thursday and Friday even with a cold upper low over the region.
Heavy showers could drag snow levels briefly below 5000 feet on
Thursday...but the cessation of showers and a lack of completely
overcast skies would allow snow levels to rise again and
temperatures to rebound quickly.
With a ridge starting to build by Friday afternoon/evening...
Saturday temperatures were also raised a few degrees. 20
Aviation...
Showers should redevelop today over the region as heating increases
and a weak upper level deformation area associated with an upper low
over southern CA provides increased forcing. Instability may
increase enough by this afternoon for a few thunderstorms as well.
At this point it remains difficult to pinpoint the areas where the
more concentrated heavier showers will develop...but in the heavier
showers cigs/vsbys should drop to MVFR/IFR. Snow levels should
remain generally above 8000 feet...but the heavier showers could
drag these down to around 6500 feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
616 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. S-SW WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A MID DECK..AROUND FL100..MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SEABREEZE INFLUENCED WIND HAS BACKED FLOW AROUND TO 170-190 AT
THE NYC TERMINALS AND HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS KHPN. GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE/DW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SWLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF NEAR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ON TUE INTO EARLY TUE EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SWLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI INVOF
THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE SWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INCREASING
THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG AND ACROSS
WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE JET
AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF THE
CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS WITH
PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCAL REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
WITH ITS HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES
SO. THE VORTICITY MAXIMA EVENTUALLY GETS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CUTOFF
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
TUESDAY...CLEARING NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEAK WITH MODELS
SHOWING NO INSTABILITY AND LAYER PW VALUES JUST A LITTLE ABOVE 1
INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE THIS WORDED MORE AS A STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WILL BE PRETTY CONTINUOUS. WENT WITH COOLER BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF
RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR HIGHS...LOWER 50S.
A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER. THE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST ARE NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE STAYING ANCHORED IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS FROM TO TIME
TO TIME AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER
COULD BECOME MORE WET AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A FRONT OFFSHORE WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE REGION.
CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOW
WITH PERCENTAGES AROUND 30 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE LESS
THAN THAT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEKEND ALSO WEAKENS AND
TRENDS FARTHER WEST...SO TEMPERATURES TURN OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HAVING LESS MAGNITUDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE UP TO 50-60 KT BUT
MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WITH RAIN NOT BEING
HEAVY...THINK GUSTS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN SCA BUT ONE OR TWO GUSTS
COULD GET TO GALES. TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE OCEAN WITH CONDITIONS SUB SCA ELSEWHERE. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY
MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE OCEAN WILL
BE STAYING IN THE SCA RANGE...MAINLY FOR SEAS MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
ABOUT A HALF INCH RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
231 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSES TNGT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON
AND PASSES ON TUE. THE REGION THEN REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO
THE N AND LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THE DOORSTEP PER STLT AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET. SLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH INTO THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NYC AND WRN LI
INVOF THE AMBROSE JET. TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE LATE TNGT AS THE
SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INCREASING THETAE SO A CHC FOR SOME LGT RAIN MAINLY TOWARDS MRNG
AND ACROSS WRN ZONES. STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY LLVLS THE LIMITING
FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDY THRU THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE.
THE STABLE SLY FLOW IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE TO PCPN ACROSS THE
ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUS ON RR QUAD OF THE
JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWA...FROM ROUGHLY NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...LESS STABLE
AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO HAVE HIGHER CHCS FOR RAIN IN THOSE
AREAS. TEMPS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. BREEZY ALONG THE COASTS
WITH PERSISTENT SSW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVELS EXHIBIT A SPLIT JET STRUCTURE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK. THEN THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND OPENS
UP...BECOMING MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO END AS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED
THOUGH AS MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE ENDED BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.
A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS SETS UP WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THIS KEEPS THE
REGION WITH MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTN. A MID DECK (AROUND FL100) MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
SFC WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING TO SW AS OF 18Z AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ENHANCING SPEEDS ALONG THE CT COAST AND ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REMAINS VFR ON MONDAY...THOUGH MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UP AT
NEWBURGH.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE TUE AFTN. SW
WND 15-20G25-30KT TUE MORNING...SHIFTING NNW AROUND 15 KT BY TUE
AFTN.
.WED-FRI...VFR. NE WIND 15-20 KT. A COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS PICK UP INTO THIS EVE ON THE OCEAN AND S COAST WITH RETURN
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS. THE SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS THRU MON...WITH THE SCA EXTENDED TO
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND. THE SCA COND
CONTINUE MON NGT.
IN TERMS OF WINDS...TUE-TUE NGT WILL HAVE SCA WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE OCEAN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
HAVE MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THRU MON NGT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED ON TUE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOTS OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. EXPECT MOST BUT PERHAPS
NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
VERY SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PUMPING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO IDAHO. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA AS AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IDAHO...THIS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. EXPECTING TWO SHARPLY
DIVIDED SCENARIOS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST MORE IN DOUBT. UP FRONT...THERE IS NO QUESTION
THAT SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THU
NIGHT. BEYOND THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE OF
TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE DRIER THAN THE WED NIGHT TO THU
NIGHT TIMEFRAME...BUT THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SO...WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHTS AND AN EXITING CLOSED LOW THAT IS MUCH DRIER AND
FASTER TO EXIT DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS DURING THIS DRIER PERIOD. SNOW MAY RETURN DURING THIS TIME
FOR AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR OF THE LOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT OF WIND AS WELL. THE LONG WAVE FORECAST
AT 500MB NOT HELPING TOO MUCH. IT CONTINUES THE NEAR ZONAL AND
MODERATE TO FAST FLOW INTO FRI NIGHT OR SO...THEN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS DOES BRING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
CONFIRMS A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A LITTLE BIT DURING THAT TIME. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...INSTABILITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF -TSRA AT ALL FOUR AIRDROMES...BUT THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS KIDA TO DRY OUT AND STABILIZE FASTER
THAN THE OTHER THREE AIRPORTS. FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT KPIH BETWEEN
09/23Z AND 10/01Z AND KBYI BETWEEN 10/00Z AND 10/02Z...BOTH TIMINGS
BASED ON HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. AFTER SOME POST CONVECTION
CLEARING...A LATE NIGHT BAND OF MOISTURE AT OR JUST BELOW 700MB
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MON. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
137 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...
330 AM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
FAIRLY GOOD LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS LED
TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING ELEVATED WARM FRONT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FOR THE MOST
PART ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S)...EVAPORATIONAL COOLING/WET BULBING IS
ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO FALL LARGELY AS A SNOW/SLEET MIX....WITH
RAIN BEING OBSERVED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT
IS PUNCHING IN. WITH THE DRY LOW LAYERS...THERE HAVE LARGELY ONLY
BEEN TRACE ACCUMULATIONS TO THIS POINT. WET BULBING WILL CONTINUE
FOR A BIT LONGER...AND THERE ARE SOME HEALTHIER ECHOES ON RADAR
THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS CLOUD BASES LOWER. A PERUSAL OF AREA WEBCAMS AT
THIS POINT ONLY SHOW WET PAVEMENT AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE...AS
DEWPOINTS SURFACE INTO THE MID 40S SOUTH. THUS EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THIS INITIAL SHOT OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION TO START THE DAY INITIALLY...THOUGH ECHOES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FESTER ON RADAR WITH WEAKER LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN PLACE. AS THIS OCCURS THE WARM NOSE WILL MOVE IN WHICH
WILL QUICKLY ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER RAIN THIS MORNING
OR EVEN SOME DRY PERIODS AS WE WAIT FOR THE UPPER FORCING AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL MOVE EAST
SOMEWHAT SLOWLY...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE AND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THIS INITIAL COUPLED FORCING/MOISTURE WILL
PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A THUNDER MENTION LARGELY SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 7 DEG/KM. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL CRUISE OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS EVENING AND LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THOUGH WITH THE UPPER FORCING HEADS NORTH WHICH
WILL ACT TO DECREASE COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHERN
EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT HANGS UP TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 AM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AS IT MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. AND WHILE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WILL
TREND TOWARD THAT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK AS LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES CLOSES OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING BLOCK PATTERN THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA
UNDER THE RIDGE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING BACK TO AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH LAKE
BREEZES KEEPING LAKE AREAS MUCH COOLER.
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AT ISSUANCE
TIME...THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH MORE SCT SHRA ACROSS NRN IL. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SRN WI AND ERN IA.
EXPECT THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN AND ASSOCIATED LOWERING CIGS
WILL LIFT NWRD ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR AS LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS FROM THE TOP DOWN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE
REGION.
THUNDER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
LATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
WI-IA TO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL IL TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME TS POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...TIMING THE
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TRICKY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SOME SCT/EMBEDDED TS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS LASALLE/LIVINGSTON COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACKING
NEWD. WHILE NO LIGHTNING IS BEING CURRENTLY OBSERVED...THERE IS
SOME CHANCE FOR TS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SUGGESTING THAT MDW/GYY WOULD BE IN
THE MOST FAVORABLE TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF TS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
GUSTY SLY-SSWLY WINDS WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
318 AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING
TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A PERIOD OF
30KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 7 PM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was spreading
eastward across central IL early this afternoon ahead of a warm
front pushing into eastern MO. This will bring MVFR conditions
for a time especially with heavier rain showers. The back edge of
this convection near the MS river will spread eastward to IL
river/PIA by 20Z and to DEC and CMI by 23Z. Breezy South winds
13-19 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon will diminish to
9-14 kts by sunset. MVFR ceilings to be more prevalent late this
afternoon and into tonight and could see ceilings to 1k ft or
below at PIA and BMI by this evening. A cold front over central IA
and nw MO will push southeast to the IA/IL border by sunset and
more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop along
and ahead of it this evening. The front pushes to PIA by 04Z and
to DEC and CMI by 06-07Z with SSW winds this evening shifting nw
at 6-10 kts behind it overnight and more northerly near 10 kts
Sunday morning. Low pressure over southeast CO to eject ne along
the frontal boundary in southeast IL by 18Z Monday and keep
showers going along I-72 and south. Northern TAF sites of BMI and
especially PIA to be dry later tonight into Monday while ceilings
elevate to VFR, and may even scatter out at PIA during Monday
morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms was spreading
eastward across central IL early this afternoon ahead of a warm
front pushing into eastern MO. This will bring MVFR conditions
for a time especially with heavier rain showers. The back edge of
this convection near the MS river will spread eastward to IL
river/PIA by 20Z and to DEC and CMI by 23Z. Breezy South winds
13-19 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon will diminish to
9-14 kts by sunset. MVFR ceilings to be more prevalent late this
afternoon and into tonight and could see ceilings to 1k ft or
below at PIA and BMI by this evening. A cold front over central IA
and nw MO will push southeast to the IA/IL border by sunset and
more showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop along
and ahead of it this evening. The front pushes to PIA by 04Z and
to DEC and CMI by 06-07Z with SSW winds this evening shifting nw
at 6-10 kts behind it overnight and more northerly near 10 kts
Sunday morning. Low pressure over southeast CO to eject ne along
the frontal boundary in southeast IL by 18Z Monday and keep
showers going along I-72 and south. Northern TAF sites of BMI and
especially PIA to be dry later tonight into Monday while ceilings
elevate to VFR, and may even scatter out at PIA during Monday
morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Forecast was updated early this morning to increase chances of
showers this morning north of I-70 where scattered showers have
occurred so far today. A few pockets of heavier rains late this
morning just east of Bloomington and moving east into Schuyler and
Fulton counties. Some thunderstorms over eastern parts of IA/MO
also tracking eastward toward IL late this morning.
Late morning surface map shows 998 mb low pressure just north of
MN with a cold front extending southward through central MN into
nw IA to 1002 mb low pressure over central KS. A warm front was
moving ne into central parts of IA/MO. Breezy SSE winds 15-25 mph
and gusts of 25-30 mph late this morning over central IL. Latest
forecast models bring cold front east toward the IL/IA border by
sunset with a heavier band of showers and a few thunderstorms
spreading eastward across central and eastern IL from late this
morning and through the afternoon. Current forecast handles this
well. SPC has general risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and
into tonight over CWA while marginal risk of severe storms from St
Louis sw. Still could see a few thunderstorms produce pea size
hail over central IL this afternoon and had a report of this
already in Marion/Cedar Rapids IA this morning. Temps at 1030 am
are in the 40s (lower 40s east central IL and upper 40s from
Galesburg and Jacksonville sw). Breezy south winds to bring milder
highs of 55-60F by late this afternoon, with mildest readings sw
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1028mb high centered over the eastern
Great Lakes into the Appalachians, while a warm front is draped from
eastern Nebraska to Arkansas. As the high shifts further away from
the region, the warm front will gradually lift into central Illinois
today, triggering showers and a few thunderstorms. Initial wave of
warm advection precip consisting of a mix of sprinkles/sleet passed
through the area earlier this evening and is now well to the E/NE.
Based on current radar loops and high-res model guidance, it appears
dry conditions will persist through at least sunrise before the
airmass slowly begins to moisten. Surface dewpoints are only in the
teens and lower 20s right now, and this will likely impede
significant precip development for several more hours. NAM/HRRR are
both insistent that showers will break out between 12z and
15z...then will become more widespread toward midday through the
afternoon hours. Have therefore started the day with just slight
chance PoPs, then have increased to likely or categorical across
the board this afternoon. Forecast soundings remain stable:
however, a narrow corridor of elevated instability edges into
west-central Illinois by 18z. Have therefore mentioned isolated
thunder during the afternoon. Aside from the rain chances, it
will be a windy and warmer day. Winds will become southerly and
will gust to between 25 and 30 mph at times, helping push highs
into the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Cold front will settle southward into central Illinois tonight,
bringing widespread rain. Given strong lift associated with
approaching short-wave trough swinging through the Upper Midwest and
deep-layer moisture flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
categorical PoPs are warranted tonight. As has been the case for
the past couple of days, models tend to develop the most widespread
precip from the I-72 corridor southward into southeast Illinois late
tonight into Monday. As the boundary sags southward, rain will
continue across the southern KILX CWA through Monday, while
locations north of I-72 see an end to the showers. Once the precip
ends, rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.25
northwest of the Illinois River...to 1.50 to 2.00 along I-70.
The front will drop south of the Ohio River Monday night, as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. Skies will clear
and winds will become light as the pressure gradient relaxes,
resulting in another cold night across central Illinois. Low
temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s, likely
prompting the need for another round of Freeze Warnings across parts
of the area.
After that, high pressure will dominate the weather for the
remainder of the extended. Temperatures will initially be on the
cool side, but as upper heights steadily rise, a marked warming
trend will develop by the end of the week. High temperatures will
only be in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday...but will rise to
around 70 by Saturday. Models continue to advertise an upper-level
blocking pattern developing...that will keep any approaching storm
systems at bay until early next week at the earliest. The end
result will be a prolonged stretch of warm/dry weather through at
least next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2016
Warm advection and isentropic lift will increase today as a warm
front lifts N-NE across Illinois. Showers will likely be occurringat
SPI by 13z, with rain overspreading the remaining TAF sites
through CMI by 15z. Forecast soundings suggest cigs lowering to
MVFR category this afternoon. HRRR and RAP ceiling projections
show that KPIA and KBMI will have higher chances of seeing IFR
cigs during the afternoon, but all sites could see brief periods
of IFR ceilings this afternoon. Prevailing MVFR cigs will continue
into the evening hours along with scattered showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms, especially from KSPI to KDEC. Rain should
eventually come to an end for PIA and BMI before the end of this
TAF period, with showers continuing across the southern terminals
through 12z/11Apr.
The 12z ILX sounding shows LLWS criteria will continue this
morning, with 1800Ft winds at 50kts from the SW. Surface winds
will increase from the south at 18-22G32KT. As a cold front
approaches this evening, look for surface winds to veer into a
southwest to west direction with the FROPA, and wind speeds
decreasing to 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE PRECIP
TRENDS WITH TWO DIFFERENTLY FORCED AREAS. A BAND OF WEAK
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SERN SECTIONS IN A ZONE OF 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALTHOUGH THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED OR MLCAPE...RADAR
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO IT IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK HOWEVER SO EXPECT
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT WEAK PROGRESSION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OVER NRN IA HIGH BASED WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN IS IN PROGRESS...SOME
OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGS THE TROUGH A BIT BY SEVERAL COUNTIES.
WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY ALOFT...THIS PRECIP SEEMS DRIVEN MORE
BY KINEMATICS AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY.
THUS FOR THE NEAR TERM HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH
THROUGH 00Z WITH THE SERN WEAK CONVECTION EXITING VERY SHORTLY
AFTER THAT TIME...IF NOT SOONER.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY...WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND...TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY. EVEN WITH AMPLE MID-APRIL
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH...OR 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. MODELS BRING
THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AS HIGH AS APPROX 820 MB.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA. HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM GOING
FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MINS DIPPING BELOW 30F OR COLDER
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE
ELECTED TO FORGO FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES ATTM AND WILL INSTEAD
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES. FREEZE
CONDITIONS JUST OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING...THUS MONDAY
NIGHT/S CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON.
WAA KICKS IN RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE
WAA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BECAUSE IF IT KICKS IN
QUICKER THAN FCST THEN MINS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD. AM NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE WAA IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AS WAA IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN AFTER THE MORNING LOWS OCCUR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF IS TRENDING THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE NAM/GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO JUST BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE.
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HAVE SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN U.S.
CUTOFF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CIGS EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT ALONG KRDK/KDSM/KALO
LINE. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SERN IA AND KOTM BY 01Z WITH PRECIP ENDING
AND VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NWLY WINDS WITH MINOR GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN AFTER 15Z MON.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY STILL ON
TAP FOR A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAK TROUGH OVER EXTREME NE COLORADO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THAT MAY
IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY...OTHERWISE NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE MAIN WX FEATURE NOW IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERING THERE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BLOCKING H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL PUT THE TRI STATE REGION INTO
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR BIG DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNT WHICH COULD RANGE FROM 1.00" TO ALMOST
1.75"...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY TRAINING OF PRECIP AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO
UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE SURFACE GRADIENT SET UP...ENHANCED BY THE
PLACEMENT/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST THE PERIODS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S WED-SAT...AND 60S TUESDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...BEFORE MOST ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN TAFS FOR KGLD OR KMCK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (2500-3000 KFT) AT KGLD...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THESE LOWER CIGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR CWA (ROUGHLY NEAR
KGLD) WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST US IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK OUT INTO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO SWING THROUGH NEBRASKA ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE (MAINLY IN OUR WEST)...WITH BEST PRECIP SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/REGION OF POSITIVE
FRONTOGENESIS. I KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THERE IS STILL WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NAM/RAP STILL SHOW A REGION OF NEGATIVE
THETA E LAPSE RATES 850-700MB ALONG/AHEAD OF WITH MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MODERATE POCKETS OF SHOWERS COULD HELP BRING AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
A INCH OF RAINFALL TO EASTERN COLORADO WITH LESS FURTHER EAST
WHERE LESS INSTABILITY/FORCING IS IN PLACE. EASTERN LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA MAY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND COVERAGE
IS NOT A CERTAIN TOWARDS HILL CITY/NORTON.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MINIMUM TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND OR ABOVE 40F. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DESPITE CAA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST RECOVER TO THE LOW 60S
(SEASONAL). I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER...AND WINDS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LOOKING LIKE A TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP/SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY. THIS MATCHES THE CURRENT PATTERN. THERE ARE STILL SPEED
AND POSITION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE GFS IN GENERAL IS
SLOWER...ESPECIALLY EARLY...AND FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THAN THE LATEST ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SYSTEM IS GETS MUCH WORSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST GFS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A SLIGHT
TRENDING TOWARD FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH. THE LATEST ECMWF IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THERE IS
SLIGHT SUPPORT FOR FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE ENSEMBLES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MEMBERS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. BASED ON THE BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOWN...A
SLOWER EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY.
IN GENERAL BOTH SOLUTIONS DO SUPPORT A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PRODUCING MORE PRECIPITATION AND HOLDING ONTO
THE PRECIPITATION LONGER. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
THE GULF WIDE OPEN BY FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND THE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SHOWN BY THE
NAEFS WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO THE WIND PROFILE
AND INSTABILITY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A DECENT SHOT AT OUR FIRST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON.
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL NOT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND COLLABORATION...AM PLANNING ON NOT
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT BLEND GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BETWEEN KGLD AND KMCK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z...BEFORE MOST ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION IN TAFS FOR KGLD OR KMCK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (2500-3000 KFT) AT KGLD...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THESE LOWER CIGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 12Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD IN
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS TO 30 KT AS SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT
AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE W WINDS. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP AT KSAW EARLY AFTERNOON MON WITH INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS APPROACHING FROM NW ONTARIO AND
THE NRN PLAINS. WITH WEAKENING ASCENT AND MID-LVL DRYING...SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MIXED AT TIMES WITH PATCHY -RA/-
DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SCT -SHSN ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WNW WINDS AT THE
SFC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -9C WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH TROF
MOVES OVERHEAD. HYBRID SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL TROF
BRINGS 5H TEMPS TO -30C ACROSS AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS TO 700
MB OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW WITH WESTERLY
MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES
OF FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...MOST SNOW WILL FALL AFTER
MORNING COMMUTE AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S...MAIN ROADS
WILL PROBABLY JUST BE WET. EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO WEST WINDS 20-30KT. BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MON EXPECT WEST GALES OF 35-40KT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS A HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUE. S TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP
TO THE E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ON TROF IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ANOTHER
TROF DROPPING THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA TROF HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR SE ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI. PER
WEBCAMS...SOME ROADS HAVE BECOME COVERED WITH A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW.
WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING HRS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS ASCENT
SHIFTS E. MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL ON THE 290-295K
SFCS/AROUND 750MB...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
PER 6HRS. FOR THE MOST PART...MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. WITH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RADAR ECHOES ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI/NW WI NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OCCURRING AT THE SFC WITH
RESPECT TO VIS...DRY AIR NOTED ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
HAVING AN IMPACT ON PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SO...FCST WILL FAVOR SUB ADVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE MORNING WITH 12HR AMOUNTS FROM 06-18Z
LESS THAN 1 INCH W TO 1-3 INCHES CNTRL AND E. HEADING THRU LATE
MORNING/AFTN...INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE THRU THE CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY ALLOW ROADS
TO BE MOSTLY WET DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE AFTN AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SNOW WILL
DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S AND W.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRES TRACKS E
TO A POSITION JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MIGHT SEE A FEW -SHSNRA
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THEN...POST FROPA UPSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD AID
SOME -SHSN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. TO THE E...LINGERING -SN SHOULD
LARGELY END THIS EVENING. CAA AND FAVORABLE W WIND DIRECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MON
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -12C AND NW WINDS. LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT...BUT WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS A HIGH MOVES IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO WATCH FOR IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
POPULATED WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
BIG STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE WARM UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
FROM -10C AT 12Z TUE TO AROUND 9C BY 00Z SAT...AND WILL STAY AROUND
THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AWAY FROM AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WED...50S
THU...MID 50S TO AROUND 60S FRI...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SAT AND SUN.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER WED. SHOULD SEE MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SO MELTING SHOULD BE CONTROLLED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR/PERHAPS LIFR IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW PASSES. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW MVFR CONDITIONS/OCNL IFR
BECOMING PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND THEN LIFR LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MVFR. AT KCMX...THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR UNDER GUSTY W WINDS. AT KSAW...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT AFTER FROPA DUE TO POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE
W WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRES TRACKS E...PASSING JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO 20-
30KT W WINDS. ON MON...FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE APPROACHES...THEN DRIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUE. S
TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED/THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP TO THE
E AND SE AND A LOW PRES TROF SETS UP TO THE NW. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20KT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS
GUST UP TO 25KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
MONDAY FOR LSZ241>243-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE HRRR MODELS AND RAP MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
ENERGETIC WITH THE CNTL ROCKIES DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL
FALL THROUGH 7000 FEET OF DRY AIR...PERHAPS MORE. POPS ARE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST. LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE THE OPERATIVE
MODE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
HANG IN ALL NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE IN THE 30S ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEB
FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN
CANADA THIS AFTN WILL RIDGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. THE
LATEST BLEND OF 4 GUIDANCE DATA SET PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WRN NEB
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE. THE RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY STRONGER. WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA
IN THE AFTN AS WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. IN
FACT THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECM MODELS HAVE HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
80 IN MANY AREAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS H850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C LATE IN THE AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
OPERATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN AND THE MODELS SHOW A MODEST CAP DEVELOPING AT
700MB...5C TO 8C. THE CAP WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING AND TSTMS FIRE IN
THE GEM...ECM AND GFS MODELS. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. TODAY THE GFS SHOWS STRATUS FRIDAY MORNING AND COMPLETE
OVERCAST SATURDAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HEIGHTS ALOFT BACK OR BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE RAIN
CHANCE THURSDAY IS CONDITIONAL WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE RAIN MAY
BE NOCTURNAL VS THE STRONGER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACH THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
STILL IN PLACE BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
THE RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING MAY
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH OF ALLIANCE. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
222 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
ANOTHER ONE IS RIGHT ON IT HEALS. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW LATE WEEK WILL USHER IN WINDS ON THURSDAY
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD UP THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MOHAVE. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE
OVER NORTHEAST CLARK AND FAR NORTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTIES. MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA RIPE WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOWARD MESQUITE/INTERSTATE 15 THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, ANY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NYE, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. HRRR MODEL
WOULD SUGGEST A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING.
MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES AT A STEADY CLIP EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS IN RIGHT BEHIND. THIS LOW
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY BEFORE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BUT
MOST PLACES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING - MONDAY
EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPID
MONDAY NIGHT JUST LIKE THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO
NORMAL TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NEVADA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, YET DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
WHILE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, IT IS NOT TYPICALLY A FAVORED PATH FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MAINLY THE TERRAIN FOR
THE BEST CHANCES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN A FEW VALLEYS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF TERMINAL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. COULD SEE
SOME NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL START
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL.
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6K FEET. LIGHT EAST WIND WILL GO
DOWNVALLEY THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MONDAY WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE, ICING AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
206 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...ROUND AFTER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS HERE TO
STAY FOR THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RATHER DRAMATIC WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER STARTING TO MOVE EAST. MODELS AGREE ON DEPICTING
THE LOW OPENING TO A BROAD WAVE BUT WRAPPING WEAK SPOKES AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT MOISTURE AMPLE. JUST WHEN A SHORT RIDGE
WOULD LIKE TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS...A PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST AND PUSHES IT OUT....GIVING US MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW. HENCE...POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE
OFF AND ON AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS. WIND FIELD IS WEAK AND
DISJOINTED WITH SURFACE WINDS WANTING TO REVERT TO DRAINAGE OR
WEAK SOUTHWEST AND WINDS ABOUT 10K FEET AGL FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS/SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE BE SLOW. BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY AS MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH COLD TROUGH
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THU-FRI.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WED, A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING INTO NORTHWEST
NV AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND 110+KT JET PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN CA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING BUT INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES FROM CENTRAL-EASTERN NV WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEST
OF THIS ZONE OF MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE, DRYING AND MORE STABLE AIR
MAY LIMIT CONVECTION INCLUDING I-80 FROM ELKO WESTWARD TO
WINNEMUCCA AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD AUSTIN WHERE GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN NV.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF NORTHEAST NV BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
THU-FRI. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT ALL VALLEY FLOORS WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET FOR THE MOST PART DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT COULD ICE UP AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY PASSES ABOVE
5500 FEET AND ANYWHERE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE MUCH COLDER THU-FRI WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
EASE WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESKY UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH
IS DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE VCSH
WITH TEMPO -TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TAPERING OFF TO VCSH/-SHRA
OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPO -TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
GUSTY WINDS...BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGEST STORMS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
98/87/98
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern California and Nevada today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. The coverage of showers wanes Monday and Tuesday as low
pressure moves out of the area. For mid to late week, a stronger
and colder system will bring breezy conditions with chances for
rain and snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Moist and unstable conditions remain over the region today as low
pressure lingers over southern NV. Moderate to heavy precipitation
occurred over much of the region in the last 36 hours, with many
locations reporting 0.25-1.0" of rainfall. In the High Sierra, a
few locations reported several inches of snow above the 8000 foot
level in the Sierra. This morning`s sounding again came in with
0.60" precipitable water (second day in a row) which puts today
in the 99th percentile for the atmospheric moisture for this time
of year.
Mostly clear skies north of Pyramid Lake this morning are allowing
for strong showers and thunderstorms to develop due to stronger
solar heating. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall
amounts and small hail, especially north of Pyramid Lake. Further
south over Reno-Carson-Tahoe, abundant cloud cover has limited
instability in the area, although shower activity is increasing
in the last couple of hours.
There were reports of a cold air funnel cloud between Fernley and
Hazen around 1pm, so moderate instability and a line of
convergence from Reno to Fernley may be helping to spin up weak
rotation. These types of funnel clouds are typically very short
lived and rarely touch ground, but in the unusual event of a
funnel cloud touching ground, people should move indoors and stay
away from windows. Also, these funnel clouds occur below the view
of our NWS Radar (on top of Virginia Peak), so we cannot see
these features on radar. Widespread showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are expected to last into the evening hours, then
begin to diminish after midnight with a few isolated light showers
remaining.
Low pressure will continue to slowly push out of the area Monday
and Tuesday with diminishing chances for showers each day. We
cannot rule out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm late
Monday afternoon as Lifted Indices remain around -2C mainly north
of Reno. Another area of low pressure pushes into the Pac NW
Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing winds and chances of
showers north of Susanville on Wednesday. Hoon
Long Term...Thursday through Sunday...
A cold upper level low will swing through the northern Sierra and
western Nevada on Thursday. Showers will spread south to near the
Tahoe basin by early Thursday morning. Snow levels will quickly drop
near 5,000 feet by early Thursday morning which should produce snow
showers through the Sierra with a mix of rain and snow possible down
to western Nevada valley floors through Thursday evening. Last
several model runs have been demonstrating better agreement in
showing a progressive and shorter duration type of system. Increased
winds are also expected with this system as the surface pressure
gradient enhances and winds aloft strengthen. At this time looking
at wind gusts up to around 40 mph. Confidence has been increasing
with this system but still overall a low-moderate category at this
time.
Temperatures will cool about 5-10 degrees below season averages
behind this system on Thursday and Friday. Highs will remain in the
mid to upper 50s across western Nevada and mid 40s for Sierra
Valleys. Drier and warmer conditions will then return as an upper
level ridge begins to intensify through the weekend. Fuentes
&&
.Aviation...
An upper level low will continue to provide areas of showers with
the possibility of isolated thunderstorms through early evening.
Currently the favored area to see isolated thunderstorms will exist
roughly north of Pyramid Lake. Mainly expect rain showers for
KRNO,KCXP,KTVL,KTRK through this evening with TSRA chances at these
terminals about 20%. Heavier showers will produce MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. Snow levels should remain generally above 8000
feet...but the heavier showers could drag these down to around 6500
feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. Fuentes/20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern California and Nevada today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. The coverage of showers wanes Monday and Tuesday as low
pressure moves out of the area. For mid to late week, a stronger
and colder system will bring breezy conditions with chances for
rain and snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Moist and unstable conditions remain over the region today as low
pressure lingers over southern NV. Moderate to heavy precipitation
occurred over much of the region in the last 36 hours, with many
locations reporting 0.25-1.0" of rainfall. In the High Sierra, a
few locations reported several inches of snow above the 8000 foot
level in the Sierra. This morning`s sounding again came in with
0.60" precipitable water (second day in a row) which puts today
in the 99th percentile for the atmospheric moisture for this time
of year.
Mostly clear skies north of Pyramid Lake this morning are allowing
for strong showers and thunderstorms to develop due to stronger
solar heating. Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall
amounts and small hail, especially north of Pyramid Lake. Further
south over Reno-Carson-Tahoe, abundant cloud cover has limited
instability in the area, although shower activity is increasing
in the last couple of hours.
There were reports of a cold air funnel cloud between Fernley and
Hazen around 1pm, so moderate instability and a line of
convergence from Reno to Fernley may be helping to spin up weak
rotation. These types of funnel clouds are typically very short
lived and rarely touch ground, but in the unusual event of a
funnel cloud touching ground, people should move indoors and stay
away from windows. Also, these funnel clouds occur below the view
of our NWS Radar (on top of Virginia Peak), so we cannot see
these features on radar. Widespread showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms are expected to last into the evening hours, then
begin to diminish after midnight with a few isolated light showers
remaining.
Low pressure will continue to slowly push out of the area Monday
and Tuesday with diminishing chances for showers each day. We
cannot rule out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm late
Monday afternoon as Lifted Indices remain around -2C mainly north
of Reno. Another area of low pressure pushes into the Pac NW
Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing winds and chances of
showers north of Susanville on Wednesday. Hoon
Long Term...Thursday through Sunday...
A cold upper level low will swing through the northern Sierra and
western Nevada on Thursday. Showers will spread south to near the
Tahoe basin by early Thursday morning. Snow levels will quickly drop
near 5,000 feet by early Thursday morning which should produce snow
showers through the Sierra with a mix of rain and snow possible down
to western Nevada valley floors through Thursday evening. Last
several model runs have been demonstrating better agreement in
showing a progressive and shorter duration type of system. Increased
winds are also expected with this system as the surface pressure
gradient enhances and winds aloft strengthen. At this time looking
at wind gusts up to around 40 mph. Confidence has been increasing
with this system but still overall a low-moderate category at this
time.
Temperatures will cool about 5-10 degrees below season averages
behind this system on Thursday and Friday. Highs will remain in the
mid to upper 50s across western Nevada and mid 40s for Sierra
Valleys. Drier and warmer conditions will then return as an upper
level ridge begins to intensify through the weekend. Fuentes
&&
.Aviation...
An upper level low will continue to provide areas of showers with
the possibility of isolated thunderstorms through early evening.
Currently the favored area to see isolated thunderstorms will exist
roughly north of Pyramid Lake. Mainly expect rain showers for
KRNO,KCXP,KTVL,KTRK through this evening with TSRA chances at these
terminals about 20%. Heavier showers will produce MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. Snow levels should remain generally above 8000
feet...but the heavier showers could drag these down to around 6500
feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. Fuentes/20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1111 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Quick update to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage for
this afternoon and evening mainly north of I-80. Latest HRRR is
showing a strong potential for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon north of Pyramid Lake with some heavier rainfall
amounts. This matches up well with the latest visible satellite
image that is showing clear skies over Lassen and Northern Washoe
Counties which will help to destabilize this afternoon with much
better solar heating that over the Reno-Carson-Tahoe area. The
stronger thunderstorms north of Reno will be capable of heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Hoon
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
UPDATE...
Coverage of showers have diminished early this morning...but is
expected to increase again later today as heating and upper level
forcing combine to produce enough instability to drive showers and
a few thunderstorms. The upper low responsible for all of the
activity should drift east today from southern CA into AZ by later
tonight. This will lead to less instability for our area tonight
and Monday. For now...we will update to reduce coverage through
the morning hours then let coverage increase in the afternoon. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM PDT SUN APR 10 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move over far southern California and Nevada today.
Moist wrap-around flow will bring some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to eastern California and western Nevada today.
Monday and Tuesday, the coverage of showers wanes as modest ridging
builds overhead. For mid to late week, a stronger and colder system
will bring breezy conditions with chances for rain and snow.
SHORT TERM...
A nice soaking rain was had since yesterday afternoon, with far
western Nevada and the Tahoe area hitting the jackpot with widespread
0.50" to 0.80" of precipitation. It was mainly rain below 7500-8000
feet around the region, although heavier precipitation did drag
down snow levels to between 6500 and 7000 feet for the Tahoe area
per spotter reports and CALTRANS cams (Echo Summit on Highway 50
was briefly slushy Saturday evening). Outside of the Reno-Tahoe
area, precip amounts were on the order of 0.20" to 0.40", tapering
to less than a tenth in central and southern Mono and Mineral
Counties.
This morning, precip coverage has dropped off to mainly isolated
light showers. For this afternoon through Monday, convective
coverage will be on the decline as upper forcing wanes and
convective development relies increasingly on residual moisture
and diurnal heating. Afternoon temperatures look to top out near
or even slightly above average today and Monday.
For late Monday night and Tuesday, I have lowered POP and re-
aligned the shower chances to the far northern (Lassen-northern
Washoe Counties) and southern-eastern portions (Mono-Mineral-
eastern Pershing/Churchill Counties) of the region. The NAM and
GFS do show very light QPF and high 700 mb moisture for other
areas of western NV Tuesday afternoon but it looks like just some
cumulus development with no apparent large-scale forcing and only
modestly above average temperatures. Snyder
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Main changes made to the forecast this cycle were to increase pops
slightly Wednesday night into Thursday morning and make a few minor
adjustments to snow levels. Overall the deterministic models are a
little better with coming together on a broad pattern evolution...
but there are still disagreements in the details.
The GFS and most of its ensemble members are now more progressive
early in the extended period with moving a trough into the region by
Thursday...but the ECMWF remains faster and more progressive with
this feature. The GFS and most of its ensemble members start to
develop a closed low by Friday morning while the ECMWF moves the
trough east and starts to build the ridge. These differences
continue to lead to a low confidence forecast regarding the details
in the extended period. Pops were raised in the far western part of
the forecast area for Wednesday night in deference to the ECMWF
while snow levels were raised slightly Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
We could also be looking at breezy conditions developing ahead of
the long wave trough late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given that
it is mid April the temperatures were allowed to rise a bit for
Thursday and Friday even with a cold upper low over the region.
Heavy showers could drag snow levels briefly below 5000 feet on
Thursday...but the cessation of showers and a lack of completely
overcast skies would allow snow levels to rise again and
temperatures to rebound quickly.
With a ridge starting to build by Friday afternoon/evening...
Saturday temperatures were also raised a few degrees. 20
Aviation...
Showers should redevelop today over the region as heating increases
and a weak upper level deformation area associated with an upper low
over southern CA provides increased forcing. Instability may
increase enough by this afternoon for a few thunderstorms as well.
At this point it remains difficult to pinpoint the areas where the
more concentrated heavier showers will develop...but in the heavier
showers cigs/vsbys should drop to MVFR/IFR. Snow levels should
remain generally above 8000 feet...but the heavier showers could
drag these down to around 6500 feet at times.
The upper low moves east into AZ on Monday while another area of low
pressure heads toward southern CA. There should be less shower
coverage Monday and Monday night as the secondary low dives a bit
farther south. By Tuesday a weak short wave ridge brings limited
shower coverage. From the middle of next week through the end of the
week shower activity should increase again as a cold upper low tries
to settle over the region. 20
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
203 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
ONLY CHANGES TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST WERE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADDED SOME SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MINOT AREA. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 4 PM CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL SITES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH 4 PM. GUST
POTENTIAL DROPS AFTER THIS. AREAS OF THE NORMALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST
SHOW EVEN LESS GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY.
LARGE AREA OF LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY VFR. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-019>023-025-034>037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL SITES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BUFKIT HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH 4 PM. GUST
POTENTIAL DROPS AFTER THIS. AREAS OF THE NORMALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST
SHOW EVEN LESS GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TODAY SO ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE RAP/HRRR
INDICATE NEAR CRITERIA WINDS USING A MEAN OF THE MIXED LAYER...AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. EXPANSIVE
STRATO-CU LAYER COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND A REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND...SO ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA THIS
MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
STRATUS IS ADVANCING STEADILY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
WILLISTON TO WASHBURN...HARVEY AND DEVILS LAKE AT 1130 UTC. THIS
IS WELL-HANDLED BY THE GOING FORECAST...AS ARE MOST OTHER ITEMS.
THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
STEADY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A 500-MB LOW MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. A MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM OF ND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MIXING WILL
BE EFFICIENT TODAY GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND DIURNAL WARMING AT
THE SURFACE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES /A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/ EXTENDING TO ABOUT 800 MB. IT
IS LIKELY THE RESULTING THERMALS WILL YIELD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL
OVERALL DRIVE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S F NORTH AND
MAINLY 40S F ELSEWHERE. THE WELL-MIXED...COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-RULED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 00 UTC GFS
MOS SUGGESTED NEAR-ADVISORY WINDS FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM AND 04-06 UTC RAP
AND HRRR SUPPORTING A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE SOME 40 KT WINDS
ARE ACCESSIBLE WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SETUP...AND AFTER MID MORNING THE SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE IT...NOT POTENTIALLY MORE-IMPACTFUL GUSTS. WE
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.
MOREOVER...OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE /EVEN THE ESRL-HRRR...WHICH WE
HAVE BEEN RELYING ON LATELY GIVEN ITS GOOD VERIFICATION/ SUGGESTED
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THAT...TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND SOME CLOUDS...WE CHOSE TO FORGO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FINALLY...NOTE THAT WE DO HAVE A LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCE THIS
MORNING IN FAR NORTHWEST ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST
ND OUT OF RESPECT TO EARLY-DAY RADAR ECHOES OBSERVED NEAR BOWMAN.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OUT OF CANADA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY AND DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
WESTERN ND. WE THUS UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVER WESTERN
ND...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS
F...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 F IN CENTRAL ND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.
WE USED THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT ALMOST ALL
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST GIVEN 1/ GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND 2/ A DESIRE TO LEAN TOWARD A
MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF
AND GFS BEGAN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. EARLY ON...SURFACE RIDGING MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK THOUGH. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SIMULATED TO CROSS ND TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK. WE CHOSE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST
TUESDAY...DESPITE A TREND TOWARD SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL IN MOST 00
UTC GUIDANCE...AS THAT WAVE IS A RELATIVE NEWCOMER TO THE MODEL
SCENE AND WOULD BE ACTING ON A VERY DRY MASS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S F BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS IN CONTROL. MODEL OUTPUT
THEN SUGGESTED THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH MAY EJECT LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA A BIT SOONER THAN WE THOUGHT
EARLIER...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PLAINS ATOP AN AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE MOISTENED SOMEWHAT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OUR ALREADY-CARRIED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH ARE FAVORED
BY THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SEASON AS WELL.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
GOING TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEEP TROUGH AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES
ON A RATHER BLOCKY NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHERE THAT LOW MAY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IS LOW...WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF KEEPING IT CENTERED ON NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A DRIER
SOLUTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS LIFTS
THE LOW INTO WY FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER-LIVED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS SIMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY.
LARGE AREA OF LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY VFR. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND OWING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE NEAR
25 PERCENT...AND WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS AT
TIMES TODAY THE SCENARIO WAS TOO MARGINAL FOR US TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING. WE WILL NONETHELESS STRESS NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IN OUR MESSAGES TODAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-019>023-025-034>037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...CJS/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM DETROIT TO
CLEVELAND TO CANTON. TOLEDO BRIEFLY REPORTED A MIX BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION EXITED TO THE NORTH. THE BRIGHT BANDING HAS BEEN
DISAPPEARING FROM THE RADAR AND SUSPECT AT THIS POINT THAT MOST
PLACES WILL JUST SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES LATER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM
TODAY BUT SHOULD SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
OHIO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFT 20Z. WARM SECTOR SHOULD CREATE
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BASES
5-6KFT. PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ALREADY FORMING TO THE WEST. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS AROUND 00Z AND SPREAD OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY 04Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 12Z IN THE WEST AND AFTER 18Z IN THE
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND STEADILY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1247 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE LOW REACHES QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXTENDS FROM DETROIT TO
CLEVELAND TO CANTON. TOLEDO BRIEFLY REPORTED A MIX BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION EXITED TO THE NORTH. THE BRIGHT BANDING HAS BEEN
DISAPPEARING FROM THE RADAR AND SUSPECT AT THIS POINT THAT MOST
PLACES WILL JUST SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES LATER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM
TODAY BUT SHOULD SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
OHIO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FAIRLY STRONG. AT
THIS TIME RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST
HOWEVER BELIEVE LITTLE IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WITH CIGS
080-10KFT IN THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED HRRR POP TRENDS BUT HAVE
INITIALLY LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE. HAVE CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS WILL INCREASE TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY
ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PTYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW EARLY IS OCCURS WEST AS TEMPS ARE IN THE
20S AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. INITIALLY BROUGHT IN
SNOW THEN ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. LOWERED FCST
TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAWN MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. 925MB FLOW
REACHES 45 TO 50KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ORIGIN OUT OF THE GLFMX
SO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE. CURIOUS IF THERE
WONT BE A LITTLE THUNDER AS NAM SHOWS A FINGER OF CAPE UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE. THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SO
WILL WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO CAT POPS ALL BUT NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT SITTING UNDER THE RIDGE IN
A BLOCK WITH CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUN.
WE MAY GET SOME CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER REACHES OF THE EAST COAST LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REAL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. WILL REACH INTO
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A COOLER NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE A TOUCH COOLER. LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING EXPECT A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RETURNS THAT SHOW UP ON RADAR PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND...BUT IF
PRECIP MAKES IT TO THE GROUND...EARLY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN
QUESTION FOR TOL/CLE/ERI. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...VERY
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PL/FZRA...DEEPER INTO THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR OF NW PA. DID REMOVE THE PL MENTION FOR KERI AS GUIDANCE HAS
ERIE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. RAIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD EVENING/DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE BRIEF DIP TO MVFR WITH ANY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN BY
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER NIGHTFALL...AND SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT PEAKING AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. COLD FRONT SLOWS
AS IT GETS INTO NW OH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY IN RAIN. NON VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON THE LAKE. ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
305 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Current surface analysis depicts cold front stretching from
eastern KS into the OK panhandle...with dryline into northwestern
OK southward into the TX panhandle. Some convection has fired near
the dryline across the TX panhandle over the past 1-2 hours...and
latest HRRR output suggests that some of this activity will make a
run east toward our forecast area during the evening hours. Also
anticipating an increase in convection along the front across
southern KS this evening as the low-level jet strengthens and
backs. While the southern activity may have a tendency to weaken
with time as it tracks east...clusters of storms associated with
the front will impact parts of northeast OK and eventually
northwest AR later tonight...with large hail/strong winds/heavy
rainfall being the main threat.
With the approach of a triple-point low...the severe weather
threat will transition into southeast OK/western AR Monday
afternoon. At least modest afternoon heating will mixed-layer CAPE
values around 2000-3000 J/kg in the smallish warm sector...and any
backed low-level flow ahead of triple-point will enhance the
tornado threat. This activity will shift east with time...with the
severe threat diminishing toward midnight.
Another weaker upper low will move through the area by mid-
week...although prevailing surface ridging should keep the bulk of
the better moisture south of the forecast area.
A deep west coast trof will develop going into the weekend...with
shower/thunderstorm chances increasing especially in the latter
half of the weekend. The extended models are still struggling with
how this system evolves/ejects east...so will continue to keep
pops in the chance category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 69 40 65 / 90 60 10 0
FSM 64 76 46 66 / 30 80 60 0
MLC 66 72 47 67 / 50 60 20 0
BVO 56 64 36 64 / 90 60 10 0
FYV 60 66 40 61 / 70 80 50 0
BYV 59 62 38 61 / 80 80 50 0
MKO 63 70 41 65 / 70 70 20 0
MIO 57 63 37 62 / 90 80 20 0
F10 63 70 43 65 / 60 60 10 0
HHW 65 76 51 67 / 30 60 20 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEB CAMS CONFIRMING THE LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND LATE
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS. RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR INDICATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER BY ARND 23Z...LEAVING NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN/POTTER COUNTIES.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY
00Z AS 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO UPSTATE NY...RESULTING IN A
DRY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER
TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY LLJ SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AS
THIS FEATURE ARRIVES. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SUNSHINE FADING OVER
MY EASTERN ZONES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION TRACKS
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NERN US.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IF IT DOES COME AS SNOW...ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT
TO NON EXISTENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE LLJ HELPS PUSH A SURGE IN THE MOISTURE. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS
RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A QUASI STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STEER SEVERAL MID AND LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH DUE TO A SHORT WAVE
COULD SLIDE NE ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCES
HINTS AT COLDER AIR NOT ADVECTING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY AND
BEING RETRACTED NORTHWARD MUCH QUICKER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH
SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE 12Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEPENING
LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES... AND FORMING A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE
SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW MOVING FURTHER INLAND...ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING MOISTURE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH MODEL HAVE THE LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO DIVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. BY SUNDAY THE EC TENDS TOWARD TAKING THE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA AND THE GFS KEEPS IT ALONG THE COAST. EITHER WAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THAT WILL LAST FROM THIS EVENING RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SUNSHINE FADING OVER
MY EASTERN ZONES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION TRACKS
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NERN US.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MY FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SREF IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. I USED A BLEND TO SHOW AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BAY LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IF IT DOES COME AS SNOW...ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT
TO NON EXISTENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE LLJ HELPS PUSH A SURGE IN THE MOISTURE. SREF/GEFS SHOW PWATS
RISING TO BETWEEN 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
WARM ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING RAIN
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 30S...WHICH WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION...LIKELY
WITH THE AID OF A WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT THE NWRN HALF OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WILL BE FAVORED WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COURTESY OF AN AREA OF
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER AN
APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE ALOFT.
FORECAST LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE WE REMAIN COOL AIR
DAMMED FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY SO HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60 WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS A CFRONT THROUGH PENN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A WEAK WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NE
ALONG IT ACROSS WRN PENN AND NEW YORK STATE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS QUITE HIGH POPS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CFROPA. QPF REMAINS
HIGHEST PRE FRONT...THOUGH QPF BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH
OVER THE NW MTNS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH A COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN
RAIN...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION...BUT BOTH SHOW DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
FOR THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS AS 00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DEEPENING LLVL EAST TO NERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS ONE OR
TWO ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...DIVING SE ACROSS THE GLAKES...
CARVES OUT A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
DELMARVA COAST...WITH HINTS OF A POTENTIAL REX BLOCK FORMING ACROSS
THE SERN CANADA AND UPPER GLAKES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST
FRIDAY INTO SAT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS MON/TUE AND DUE
TO CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA ON WED...AND CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS...FIRST OVER THE NW BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS 06-12Z AS SWLY LLJ
INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY-THURSDAY
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY...IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE JUST
NOW PUSHING OUT OF VICTORIA COUNTY. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
WEST WHERE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING.LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 2500 TO 3000 OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF
MEXICO. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. TODAY/S RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BORDER. MAIN
THREATS INITIALLY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
STORMS CROSSING THE BORDER AND APPROACHING LAREDO WILL BE AROUND
6PM TO 7PM...THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IS LOWER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG SFC TROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG AS WELL. WILL CARRY 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NOT
LONG AFTER GETTING THROUGH THE REGION AND ONLY BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STALLED FRONT COULD DEVELOP
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE. WHILE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE
ALREADY APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO THE AREA...PWATS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.75
INCHES. EXPECT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1 TO 2
INCH STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGIONS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT FRO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A COOL DOWN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S DAILY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 80 70 / 50 30 10 10 50
VICTORIA 71 82 64 81 65 / 50 40 10 10 50
LAREDO 70 93 68 84 68 / 60 0 10 20 50
ALICE 71 90 67 83 69 / 50 20 10 10 50
ROCKPORT 73 78 68 76 70 / 40 30 10 10 50
COTULLA 68 91 63 81 65 / 60 10 10 20 50
KINGSVILLE 72 89 69 82 70 / 50 20 10 10 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 79 69 76 71 / 40 30 10 10 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A BULK OF THE LIFT/PCPN TO THE SOUTH.
THE SETUP REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME...JUST THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AREN/T AS STRONG OR AS FAR NORTH.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MAX OUT AROUND 50 KTS NOW...STILL
NOSING INTO NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI TODAY...BUT ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL PRETTY STRONG...BUT THE 00Z
MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS STILL REAL DRY. NEED TO SATURATE THAT UP BEFORE
PCPN BECOMES A CONCERN.
THE WARM FRONT DOES WANT TO LIFT INTO AREA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE STARTS TO IMPINGE SOUTHWARD ON THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT THAT BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCES SHOULD
BE A SECONDARY AREA FOR SOME PCPN. ITS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL BE
THE ONE THAT GIVES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ITS SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TIMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOCAL AREA/S BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT A LOT...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING AT THE SFC STILL BRINGING
SOME PCPN TYPE CONCERNS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WI. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS MOMENT...SO ANY
GLAZING FROM ICE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS LOOKING LESS THAN THEY DID A FEW
DAYS AGO.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME SATURATION IN
THE MID LAYERS TO WORK WITH. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...INVERTED-V...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TYPE
SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW. BETTER THREAT FARTHER NORTH...BUT COULD WORK
SOUTHWARD TO HWY 10 OR SO IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ENHANCED GUSTS AROUND
ANY SHOWER. WILL ADD SOME PCPN CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THIS
IN MIND.
TUESDAY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE PROMISE FOR SOME SHOWERS...AT
LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. YESTERDAY...THE GFS WAS
THE LONE MODEL POINTING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIGGERING SOME PCPN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI. IN THEIR LATEST
RUNS...THE NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE ALSO STARTING TO CHIME IN THAT SOME
LIGHT QPF WOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SOME QG
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC...BUT ENOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION TO PAIR WITH
THE FORCING FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS. WITH IT CURRENTLY SLATED TO MOVE
IN TUE NIGHT...TEMP PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW. LOCALLY...PCPN
CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...LOOK MINOR AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE ALSO NOW
SHOWING WHAT COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MORESO IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. THE RESULT IS A DEEPENING OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE WALL OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PCPN CHANCES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST RUNS WOULD HOLD ANY CHANCES OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS...WARM AIR IS ON ITS WAY.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -4C AT 00Z WED TO 8C BY 12Z FRI. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE MID APRIL NORMALS BY WED...THEN SHOOT
BY THOSE INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS AROUND 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF YOU NEED TO GET YARD WORK DONE...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITIES COMING UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF KRST...AND IS ON SCHEDULE
TO MOVE EAST OF KLSE AROUND 19Z. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND IT FOR GOOD VFR CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AT SITES LIKE KRST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-12KTS CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DIURNAL WARMING AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT TO MAKE SOME STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING TO 850-800MB FOR THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS OF MON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G23-28KT
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z MON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS